Search results for: Machine life prediction software.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5313

Search results for: Machine life prediction software.

4953 Identifying Mitigation Plans in Reducing Usability Risk Using Delphi Method

Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

Abstract:

Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: Usability, Usability Risk, Risk Management, Risk Mitigation, Delphi Method.

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4952 Research on Reservoir Lithology Prediction Based on Residual Neural Network and Squeeze-and- Excitation Neural Network

Authors: Li Kewen, Su Zhaoxin, Wang Xingmou, Zhu Jian Bing

Abstract:

Conventional reservoir prediction methods ar not sufficient to explore the implicit relation between seismic attributes, and thus data utilization is low. In order to improve the predictive classification accuracy of reservoir lithology, this paper proposes a deep learning lithology prediction method based on ResNet (Residual Neural Network) and SENet (Squeeze-and-Excitation Neural Network). The neural network model is built and trained by using seismic attribute data and lithology data of Shengli oilfield, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attribute and lithology marker is established. The experimental results show that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of reservoir lithology, and the classification accuracy is close to 70%. This study can effectively predict the lithology of undrilled area and provide support for exploration and development.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, lithology, prediction of reservoir lithology, seismic attributes.

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4951 The Role of Intrinsic Motivation in Explaining Students- Willingness to Use Software Applications

Authors: Anne Sorebo, Oystein Sorebo

Abstract:

The present study was designed to test the influence of intrinsic ICT-motivation, perceived usefulness and ease of use on business students- willingness to use a particular software package. A questionnaire was completed by 196 business students in Norway. We found that 34% of the variance in the students- willingness to use the software could be explained by the three proposed antecedents. Intrinsic ICT-motivation seems to be the most important predictor of students- satisfaction willingness to use the software package.

Keywords: Spreadsheet, business students, technology acceptance, intrinsic motivation.

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4950 Simulation Model for Predicting Dengue Fever Outbreak

Authors: Azmi Ibrahim, Nor Azan Mat Zin, Noraidah Sahari Ashaari

Abstract:

Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education on the prevention of the desease through various means has been carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue outbreak.

Keywords: dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation

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4949 Cosastudio: A Software Architecture Modeling Tool

Authors: Adel Smeda, Adel Alti, Mourad Oussalah, Abdallah Boukerram

Abstract:

A key aspect of the design of any software system is its architecture. An architecture description provides a formal model of the architecture in terms of components and connectors and how they are composed together. COSA (Component-Object based Software Structures), is based on object-oriented modeling and component-based modeling. The model improves the reusability by increasing extensibility, evolvability, and compositionality of the software systems. This paper presents the COSA modelling tool which help architects the possibility to verify the structural coherence of a given system and to validate its semantics with COSA approach.

Keywords: Software Architecture, Architecture Description Languages, UML, Components, Connectors.

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4948 Using Machine Learning Techniques for Autism Spectrum Disorder Analysis and Detection in Children

Authors: Norah Alshahrani, Abdulaziz Almaleh

Abstract:

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a condition related to issues with brain development that affects how a person recognises and communicates with others which results in difficulties with interaction and communication socially and it is constantly growing. Early recognition of ASD allows children to lead safe and healthy lives and helps doctors with accurate diagnoses and management of conditions. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a method that will achieve good results and with high accuracy for the measurement of ASD in children. In this paper, ASD datasets of toddlers and children have been analyzed. We employed the following machine learning techniques to attempt to explore ASD: Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Na¨ıve Bayes (NB) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Then feature selection was used to provide fewer attributes from ASD datasets while preserving model performance. As a result, we found that the best result has been provided by SVM, achieving 0.98% in the toddler dataset and 0.99% in the children dataset.

Keywords: Autism Spectrum Disorder, ASD, Machine Learning, ML, Feature Selection, Support Vector Machine, SVM.

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4947 Survey to Assess the Feasibility of Executing the Web-Based Collaboration Process Using WBCS

Authors: Mohamed A. Sullabi

Abstract:

The importance of the formal specification in the software life cycle is barely concealing to anyone. Formal specifications use mathematical notation to describe the properties of information system precisely, without unduly constraining the way in how these properties are achieved. Having a correct and quality software specification is not easy task. This study concerns with how a group of rectifiers can communicate with each other and work to prepare and produce a correct formal software specification. WBCS has been implemented based mainly in the proposed supported cooperative work model and a survey conducted on the existing Webbased collaborative writing tools. This paper aims to assess the feasibility of executing the web-based collaboration process using WBCS. The purpose of conducting this test is to test the system as a whole for functionality and fitness for use based on the evaluation test plan.

Keywords: Formal methods, Formal specifications, collaborative writing, Usability testing.

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4946 Computational Intelligence Hybrid Learning Approach to Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

Abstract:

Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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4945 Evaluating Machine Learning Techniques for Activity Classification in Smart Home Environments

Authors: Talal Alshammari, Nasser Alshammari, Mohamed Sedky, Chris Howard

Abstract:

With the widespread adoption of the Internet-connected devices, and with the prevalence of the Internet of Things (IoT) applications, there is an increased interest in machine learning techniques that can provide useful and interesting services in the smart home domain. The areas that machine learning techniques can help advance are varied and ever-evolving. Classifying smart home inhabitants’ Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), is one prominent example. The ability of machine learning technique to find meaningful spatio-temporal relations of high-dimensional data is an important requirement as well. This paper presents a comparative evaluation of state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to classify ADLs in the smart home domain. Forty-two synthetic datasets and two real-world datasets with multiple inhabitants are used to evaluate and compare the performance of the identified machine learning techniques. Our results show significant performance differences between the evaluated techniques. Such as AdaBoost, Cortical Learning Algorithm (CLA), Decision Trees, Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Structured Perceptron and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Overall, neural network based techniques have shown superiority over the other tested techniques.

Keywords: Activities of daily living, classification, internet of things, machine learning, smart home.

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4944 Sliding-Mode Control of Synchronous Reluctance Motor

Authors: Mostafa.A. Fellani, Dawo.E. Abaid

Abstract:

This paper presents a controller design technique for Synchronous Reluctance Motor to improve its dynamic performance with fast response and high accuracy. The sliding mode control is the most attractive and suitable method to use for this purpose, since it is simple in design and for its insensitivity to parameter variations or external disturbances. When this method implemented it yields fast dynamic response without overshoot and a zero steady-state error. The current loop control with decentralized sliding mode is presented in this paper. The mathematical model for the synchronous machine, the inverter and the controller is developed. The stability of the sliding mode controller is analyzed. Simulation of synchronous reluctance motor and the controller with PWM-inverter has been curried out, using the SIMULINK software package of MATLAB. Simulation results are presented to show the effectiveness of the approach.

Keywords: Dynamic Simulation, MATLAB, PWM-inverter, Reluctance Machine, Sliding-mode.

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4943 A Novel Prediction Method for Tag SNP Selection using Genetic Algorithm based on KNN

Authors: Li-Yeh Chuang, Yu-Jen Hou, Jr., Cheng-Hong Yang

Abstract:

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) hold much promise as a basis for disease-gene association. However, research is limited by the cost of genotyping the tremendous number of SNPs. Therefore, it is important to identify a small subset of informative SNPs, the so-called tag SNPs. This subset consists of selected SNPs of the genotypes, and accurately represents the rest of the SNPs. Furthermore, an effective evaluation method is needed to evaluate prediction accuracy of a set of tag SNPs. In this paper, a genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to tag SNP problems, and the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) serves as a prediction method of tag SNP selection. The experimental data used was taken from the HapMap project; it consists of genotype data rather than haplotype data. The proposed method consistently identified tag SNPs with considerably better prediction accuracy than methods from the literature. At the same time, the number of tag SNPs identified was smaller than the number of tag SNPs in the other methods. The run time of the proposed method was much shorter than the run time of the SVM/STSA method when the same accuracy was reached.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), Genotype, Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), tag SNPs.

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4942 PredictionSCMS: The Implementation of an AI-Powered Supply Chain Management System

Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

Abstract:

The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: Demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design.

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4941 Study of Syntactic Errors for Deep Parsing at Machine Translation

Authors: Yukiko Sasaki Alam, Shahid Alam

Abstract:

Syntactic parsing is vital for semantic treatment by many applications related to natural language processing (NLP), because form and content coincide in many cases. However, it has not yet reached the levels of reliable performance. By manually examining and analyzing individual machine translation output errors that involve syntax as well as semantics, this study attempts to discover what is required for improving syntactic and semantic parsing.

Keywords: Machine translation, error analysis, syntactic errors, knowledge required for parsing.

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4940 Comparative Advantage of Mobile Agent Application in Procuring Software Products on the Internet

Authors: Michael K. Adu, Boniface K. Alese, Olumide S. Ogunnusi

Abstract:

This paper brings to fore the inherent advantages in application of mobile agents to procure software products rather than downloading software content on the Internet. It proposes a system whereby the products come on compact disk with mobile agent as deliverable. The client/user purchases a software product, but must connect to the remote server of the software developer before installation. The user provides an activation code that activates mobile agent which is part of the software product on compact disk. The validity of the activation code is checked on connection at the developer’s end to ascertain authenticity and prevent piracy. The system is implemented by downloading two different software products as compare with installing same products on compact disk with mobile agent’s application. Downloading software contents from developer’s database as in the traditional method requires a continuously open connection between the client and the developer’s end, a fixed network is not economically or technically feasible. Mobile agent after being dispatched into the network becomes independent of the creating process and can operate asynchronously and autonomously. It can reconnect later after completing its task and return for result delivery. Response Time and Network Load are very minimal with application of Mobile agent.

Keywords: Activation code, internet, mobile agent, software developer, software products.

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4939 Efficient Lossless Compression of Weather Radar Data

Authors: Wei-hua Ai, Wei Yan, Xiang Li

Abstract:

Data compression is used operationally to reduce bandwidth and storage requirements. An efficient method for achieving lossless weather radar data compression is presented. The characteristics of the data are taken into account and the optical linear prediction is used for the PPI images in the weather radar data in the proposed method. The next PPI image is identical to the current one and a dramatic reduction in source entropy is achieved by using the prediction algorithm. Some lossless compression methods are used to compress the predicted data. Experimental results show that for the weather radar data, the method proposed in this paper outperforms the other methods.

Keywords: Lossless compression, weather radar data, optical linear prediction, PPI image

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4938 Cardiac Disorder Classification Based On Extreme Learning Machine

Authors: Chul Kwak, Oh-Wook Kwon

Abstract:

In this paper, an extreme learning machine with an automatic segmentation algorithm is applied to heart disorder classification by heart sound signals. From continuous heart sound signals, the starting points of the first (S1) and the second heart pulses (S2) are extracted and corrected by utilizing an inter-pulse histogram. From the corrected pulse positions, a single period of heart sound signals is extracted and converted to a feature vector including the mel-scaled filter bank energy coefficients and the envelope coefficients of uniform-sized sub-segments. An extreme learning machine is used to classify the feature vector. In our cardiac disorder classification and detection experiments with 9 cardiac disorder categories, the proposed method shows significantly better performance than multi-layer perceptron, support vector machine, and hidden Markov model; it achieves the classification accuracy of 81.6% and the detection accuracy of 96.9%.

Keywords: Heart sound classification, extreme learning machine

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4937 Cognitive Weighted Polymorphism Factor: A Comprehension Augmented Complexity Metric

Authors: T. Francis Thamburaj, A. Aloysius

Abstract:

Polymorphism is one of the main pillars of objectoriented paradigm. It induces hidden forms of class dependencies which may impact software quality, resulting in higher cost factor for comprehending, debugging, testing, and maintaining the software. In this paper, a new cognitive complexity metric called Cognitive Weighted Polymorphism Factor (CWPF) is proposed. Apart from the software structural complexity, it includes the cognitive complexity on the basis of type. The cognitive weights are calibrated based on 27 empirical studies with 120 persons. A case study and experimentation of the new software metric shows positive results. Further, a comparative study is made and the correlation test has proved that CWPF complexity metric is a better, more comprehensive, and more realistic indicator of the software complexity than Abreu’s Polymorphism Factor (PF) complexity metric.

Keywords: Cognitive complexity metric, cognitive weighted polymorphism factor, object-oriented metrics, polymorphism factor, software metrics.

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4936 Dust Storm Prediction Using ANNs Technique (A Case Study: Zabol City)

Authors: Jamalizadeh, M.R., Moghaddamnia, A., Piri, J., Arbabi, V., Homayounifar, M., Shahryari, A.

Abstract:

Dust storms are one of the most costly and destructive events in many desert regions. They can cause massive damages both in natural environments and human lives. This paper is aimed at presenting a preliminary study on dust storms, as a major natural hazard in arid and semi-arid regions. As a case study, dust storm events occurred in Zabol city located in Sistan Region of Iran was analyzed to diagnose and predict dust storms. The identification and prediction of dust storm events could have significant impacts on damages reduction. Present models for this purpose are complicated and not appropriate for many areas with poor-data environments. The present study explores Gamma test for identifying inputs of ANNs model, for dust storm prediction. Results indicate that more attempts must be carried out concerning dust storms identification and segregate between various dust storm types.

Keywords: Dust Storm, Gamma Test, Prediction, ANNs, Zabol.

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4935 Mathematical Analysis of Stock Prices Prediction in a Financial Market Using Geometric Brownian Motion Model

Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

Abstract:

The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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4934 A Study of Behavioral Phenomena Using ANN

Authors: Yudhajit Datta

Abstract:

Behavioral aspects of experience such as will power are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous complexities involved. Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that will power of an individual affects the success achieved by them in life. It is also thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks in life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. This study is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network through a computational model. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. It is proposed that data pertaining to success of individuals be obtained from an experiment and the phenomenon of will be incorporated into the model, through data generated recursively using a relation between will and success characteristic to the model. An artificial neural network trained using part of the data, could subsequently be used to make predictions regarding data points in the rest of the model. The procedure would be tried for different models and the model where the networks predictions are found to be in greatest agreement with the data would be selected; and used for studying the relation between success and will.

Keywords: Will Power, Success, ANN, Time Series Prediction, Sliding Window, Computational Model, Behavioral Phenomena.

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4933 Designing Software Quality Measurement System for Telecommunication Industry Using Object-Oriented Technique

Authors: Nor Fazlina Iryani Abdul Hamid, Mohamad Khatim Hasan

Abstract:

Numbers of software quality measurement system have been implemented over the past few years, but none of them focuses on telecommunication industry. Software quality measurement system for telecommunication industry was a system that could calculate the quality value of the measured software that totally focused in telecommunication industry. Before designing a system, quality factors, quality attributes and quality metrics were identified based on literature review and survey. Then, using the identified quality factors, quality attributes and quality metrics, quality model for telecommunication industry was constructed. Each identified quality metrics had its own formula. Quality value for the system was measured based on the quality metrics and aggregated by referring to the quality model. It would classify the quality level of the software based on Net Satisfaction Index (NSI). The system was designed using object-oriented approach in web-based environment. Thus, existing of software quality measurement system was important to both developers and users in order to produce high quality software product for telecommunication industry.

Keywords: Software Quality, Quality Measurement, Object-oriented Approach, Net satisfaction Index.

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4932 A New Computational Tool for Noise Prediction of Rotating Surfaces (FACT)

Authors: Ana Vieira, Fernando Lau, João Pedro Mortágua, Luís Cruz, Rui Santos

Abstract:

The air transport impact on environment is more than ever a limitative obstacle to the aeronautical industry continuous growth. Over the last decades, considerable effort has been carried out in order to obtain quieter aircraft solutions, whether by changing the original design or investigating more silent maneuvers. The noise propagated by rotating surfaces is one of the most important sources of annoyance, being present in most aerial vehicles. Bearing this is mind, CEIIA developed a new computational chain for noise prediction with in-house software tools to obtain solutions in relatively short time without using excessive computer resources. This work is based on the new acoustic tool, which aims to predict the rotor noise generated during steady and maneuvering flight, making use of the flexibility of the C language and the advantages of GPU programming in terms of velocity. The acoustic tool is based in the Formulation 1A of Farassat, capable of predicting two important types of noise: the loading and thickness noise. The present work describes the most important features of the acoustic tool, presenting its most relevant results and framework analyses for helicopters and UAV quadrotors.

Keywords: Rotor noise, acoustic tool, GPU Programming, UAV noise.

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4931 The Role of Optimization and Machine Learning in e-Commerce Logistics in 2030

Authors: Vincenzo Capalbo, Gianpaolo Ghiani, Emanuele Manni

Abstract:

Global e-commerce sales have reached unprecedented levels in the past few years. As this trend is only predicted to go up as we continue into the ’20s, new challenges will be faced by companies when planning and controlling e-commerce logistics. In this paper, we survey the related literature on Optimization and Machine Learning as well as on combined methodologies. We also identify the distinctive features of next-generation planning algorithms - namely scalability, model-and-run features and learning capabilities - that will be fundamental to cope with the scale and complexity of logistics in the next decade.

Keywords: e-Commerce, Logistics, Machine Learning, Optimization.

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4930 Software Engineering Mobile Learning Software Solution Using Task Based Learning Approach

Authors: Bekim Fetaji, Majlinda Fetaji

Abstract:

The development and use of mobile devices as well as its integration within education systems to deliver electronic contents and to support real-time communications was the focus of this research. In order to investigate the software engineering issues in using mobile devices a research on electronic content was initiated. The Developed MP3 mobile software solution was developed as a prototype for testing and developing a strategy for designing a usable m-learning environment. The mobile software solution was evaluated using mobile device using the link: http://projects.seeu.edu.mk/mlearn. The investigation also tested the correlation between the two mobile learning indicators: electronic content and attention, based on the Task Based learning instructional method. The mobile software solution ''M-Learn“ was developed as a prototype for testing the approach and developing a strategy for designing usable m-learning environment. The proposed methodology is about what learning modeling approach is more appropriate to use when developing mobile learning software.

Keywords: M-learning, mobile software development, mobiledevices, learning instructions, task based learning.

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4929 Towards a Complete Automation Feature Recognition System for Sheet Metal Manufacturing

Authors: Bahaa Eltahawy, Mikko Ylihärsilä, Reino Virrankoski, Esko Petäjä

Abstract:

Sheet metal processing is automated, but the step from product models to the production machine control still requires human intervention. This may cause time consuming bottlenecks in the production process and increase the risk of human errors. In this paper we present a system, which automatically recognizes features from the CAD-model of the sheet metal product. By using these features, the system produces a complete model of the particular sheet metal product. Then the model is used as an input for the sheet metal processing machine. Currently the system is implemented, capable to recognize more than 11 of the most common sheet metal structural features, and the procedure is fully automated. This provides remarkable savings in the production time, and protects against the human errors. This paper presents the developed system architecture, applied algorithms and system software implementation and testing.

Keywords: Feature recognition, automation, sheet metal manufacturing, CAM, CAD.

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4928 Improving Air Temperature Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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4927 Estimating Development Time of Software Projects Using a Neuro Fuzzy Approach

Authors: Venus Marza, Amin Seyyedi, Luiz Fernando Capretz

Abstract:

Software estimation accuracy is among the greatest challenges for software developers. This study aimed at building and evaluating a neuro-fuzzy model to estimate software projects development time. The forty-one modules developed from ten programs were used as dataset. Our proposed approach is compared with fuzzy logic and neural network model and Results show that the value of MMRE (Mean of Magnitude of Relative Error) applying neuro-fuzzy was substantially lower than MMRE applying fuzzy logic and neural network.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Estimation

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4926 Useful Lifetime Prediction of Rail Pads for High Speed Trains

Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluation of railpads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.

Keywords: Rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction.

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4925 A Taguchi Approach to Investigate Impact of Factors for Reusability of Software Components

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Pavel Blecharz, Hardeep Singh

Abstract:

Quantitative Investigation of impact of the factors' contribution towards measuring the reusability of software components could be helpful in evaluating the quality of developed or developing reusable software components and in identification of reusable component from existing legacy systems; that can save cost of developing the software from scratch. But the issue of the relative significance of contributing factors has remained relatively unexplored. In this paper, we have use the Taguchi's approach in analyzing the significance of different structural attributes or factors in deciding the reusability level of a particular component. The results obtained shows that the complexity is the most important factor in deciding the better Reusability of a function oriented Software. In case of Object Oriented Software, Coupling and Complexity collectively play significant role in high reusability.

Keywords: Taguchi Approach, Reusability, SoftwareComponents, Structural Attributes.

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4924 Drainage Prediction for Dam using Fuzzy Support Vector Regression

Authors: S. Wiriyarattanakun, A. Ruengsiriwatanakun, S. Noimanee

Abstract:

The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.

Keywords: Drainage Estimation, Prediction.

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