Search results for: process model

Authors: Thiyam Tamphasana Devi, Bimlesh Kumar

Abstract:

A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technique has been applied to simulate the gas-liquid phase in double stirred tank of Rushton impeller. Eulerian-Eulerian model was adopted to simulate the multiphase with standard correlation of Schiller and Naumann for drag co-efficient. The turbulence was modeled by using standard k-ε turbulence model. The present CFD model predicts flow pattern, local gas hold-up, and local specific area. It also predicts local kLa (mass transfer rate) for single impeller. The predicted results were compared with experimental and CFD results of published literature. The predicted results are slightly over predicted with the experimental results; however, it is in reasonable agreement with other simulated results of published literature.

Keywords: Eulerian-Eulerian, gas-hold up, gas-liquid phase, local mass transfer rate, local specific area, Rushton Impeller.

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Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, William X. S. Wong

Abstract:

Corporate credit rating prediction is one of the most important topics, which has been studied by researchers in the last decade. Over the last decade, researchers are pushing the limit to enhance the exactness of the corporate credit rating prediction model by applying several data-driven tools including statistical and artificial intelligence methods. Among them, multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) has been widely applied due to its good predictability. However, heuristics, for example, parameters of a kernel function, appropriate feature and instance subset, has become the main reason for the critics on MSVM, as they have dictate the MSVM architectural variables. This study presents a hybrid MSVM model that is intended to optimize all the parameter such as feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameter. Our model adopts genetic algorithm (GA) to simultaneously optimize multiple heterogeneous design factors of MSVM.

Keywords: Corporate credit rating prediction, feature selection, genetic algorithms, instance selection, multiclass support vector machines.

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Authors: C. De Lazzari, E. Del Prete, I. Genuini, F. Fedele

Abstract:

Cardiovascular human simulator can be a useful tool in understanding complex physiopathological process in cardiocirculatory system. It can also be a useful tool in order to investigate the effects of different drugs on hemodynamic parameters. The aim of this work is to test the potentiality of our cardiovascular numerical simulator CARDIOSIM© in reproducing flow/pressure coronary waveforms in presence of two different drugs: Amlodipine (AMLO) and Adenosine (ADO). In particular a time-varying intramyocardial compression, assumed to be proportional to the left ventricular pressure, was related to the venous coronary compliances in order to study its effects on the coronary blood flow and the flow/pressure loop. Considering that coronary circulation dynamics is strongly interrelated with the mechanics of the left ventricular contraction, relaxation, and filling, the numerical model allowed to analyze the effects induced by the left ventricular pressure on the coronary flow.

Keywords: Cardiovascular system, Coronary blood flow, Hemodynamic, Numerical simulation.

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Authors: M. Elassaly

Abstract:

Damage status of RC buildings is greatly influenced by the characteristics of the imposed ground motion. Peak Ground Acceleration and frequency contents are considered the main two factors that affect ground motion characteristics; hence, affecting the seismic response of RC structures and consequently their damage state. A detailed investigation on the combined effects of these two factors on damage assessment of RC buildings is carried out. Twenty one earthquake records are analyzed and arranged into three groups, according to their frequency contents. These records are used in an investigation to define the expected damage state that would be attained by RC buildings, if subjected to varying ground motion characteristics. The damage assessment is conducted through examining drift ratios and damage indices of the overall structure and the significant structural components of RC building. Base and story shear of RC building model, are also investigated, for cases when the model is subjected to the chosen twenty one earthquake records. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed on a 2-dimensional model of a 12-story RC building.

Keywords: Damage, frequency content, ground motion, PGA, RC building, seismic.

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Authors: Wang Bo , Guo Zheng , Wang Peng , Shan Shangqiu , Hou Zhongxi

Abstract:

This paper investigates the aerodynamic characters of a model ducted fan system, analyses the basic principle of the effect of thrust promotion and torque reduction, discovers the relationship between the revolutions per minute(RPM) of the fan and the characters of thrust, as well as system torque. Firstly a model ducted fan has been designed and manufactured according to the specific structure of flow field, then CFD simulation has been carried out to analyze such aerodynamics, finally bench tests have been used to validate the simulation results and system configuration.

Keywords: ducted fan, free vortex flow, stator blade, screw torque, thrust increase

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Authors: Lucas A. Silva, Carla R. Aguiar

Abstract:

This work presents a proposal to perform contextual sentiment analysis using a supervised learning algorithm and disregarding the extensive training of annotators. To achieve this goal, a web platform was developed to perform the entire procedure outlined in this paper. The main contribution of the pipeline described in this article is to simplify and automate the annotation process through a system of analysis of congruence between the notes. This ensured satisfactory results even without using specialized annotators in the context of the research, avoiding the generation of biased training data for the classifiers. For this, a case study was conducted in a blog of entrepreneurship. The experimental results were consistent with the literature related annotation using formalized process with experts.

Keywords: Contextualized classifier, naïve Bayes, sentiment analysis, untrained annotators.

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Authors: Mokhtar Djeddou, Amine Mehel, Georges Fokoua, Anne Tanière, Patrick Chevrier

Abstract:

Commuters’ exposure to air pollution, particularly to particle matter inside vehicles, is a significant health issue. Assessing particle concentrations and characterizing their distribution is an important first step in understanding and proposing solutions to improve car cabin air quality. It is known that particle dynamics is intimately driven by particle-turbulence interactions. In order to analyze and model pollutants distribution inside car cabins, it is crucial to examine first the single-phase flow topology and its associated turbulence characteristics. Within this context, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted to model airflow inside a full-scale car cabin using Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach combined with the first order Realizable k-ε model to close the RANS equations. To assess the numerical model, a campaign of velocity field measurements at different locations in the front and back of the car cabin has been carried out using hot-wire anemometry technique. Comparison between numerical and experimental results shows a good agreement of velocity profiles. Additionally, visualization of streamlines shows the formation of jet flow developing out of the dashboard air vents and the formation of large vortex structures, particularly between the front and back-seat compartments. These vortical structures could play a key role in the accumulation and clustering of particles in a turbulent flow.

Keywords: Car cabin, CFD, hot-wire anemometry, vortical flow.

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Authors: J. M. de Luis Ruiz, P. M. Sierra García, R. P. García, R. P. Álvarez, F. P. García, E. C. López

Abstract:

Given the evolution of viaducts, structural health monitoring requires more complex techniques to define their state. two alternatives can be distinguished: experimental and operational modal analysis. Although accelerometers or Global Positioning System (GPS) have been applied for the monitoring of structures under exploitation, the dynamic monitoring during the stage of construction is not common. This research analyzes whether GPS data can be applied to certain dynamic geometric controls of evolving structures. The fundamentals of this work were applied to the New Bridge of Cádiz (Spain), a worldwide milestone in bridge building. GPS data were recorded with an interval of 1 second during the erection of segments and turned to the frequency domain with Fourier transform. The vibration period and amplitude were contrasted with those provided by the finite element model, with differences of less than 10%, which is admissible. This process provides a vibration record of the structure with GPS, avoiding specific equipment.

Keywords: Fourier transform, global position system, operational modal analysis, structural health monitoring.

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Authors: Taghreed Abu-Salim

Abstract:

This paper develops and investigates a framework for the assessment of customer involvement in the service design process of result oriented product-service systems in order to improve the service offering in a business-to-business (B2B) context. The framework comprises five main criteria and fifteen sub-criteria that contribute to customer involvement in a hierarchy using a maturity grid to highlight the strengths and weaknesses for each criterion. To develop the customer involvement framework, an extensive literature review related to service design, result oriented product-service system (PSS) and customer involvement in service design was carried out. Key factors that significantly influence customer involvement from industry and literature were identified to develop the framework. A major contribution of the developed framework includes a hierarchy of appropriate criteria for assessing customer involvement in the service design process within results oriented PSS; the definition of four maturity levels which are suitable to describe the whole spectrum of customer involvement in the service design process; and finally, The paper concludes by enabling service providers to: take proactive decisions; screen and evaluate new services; improve perceived service quality; and provide barriers against imitation.

Keywords: Customer involvement, maturity grid, new service development, result oriented product-service system, service design.

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Authors: S. Pramanik

Abstract:

Since the early ages, the Hindu temples have been interpreted through various Vedic philosophies. These temples are visited by pilgrims which demonstrate the rituals and religious belief of communities, reflecting a variety of actions and behaviors. Darsana— a direct seeing, is a part of the pilgrimage activity. During the process of Darsana, a devotee is prepared for entry in the temple to realize the cognizing Truth culminating in visualizing the idol of God, placed at the Garbhagriha (sanctum sanctorum). For this, the pilgrim must pass through a sequential arrangement of spaces. During the process of progress, the pilgrims visualize the spaces differently from various points of views. The viewpoints create a variety of spatial patterns in the minds of pilgrims coherent to the Hindu philosophies. The space organization and its order are perceived by various techniques of spatial analysis. A temple, as examples of Kalinga stylistic variations, has been chosen for the study. This paper intends to demonstrate some visual patterns generated during the process of Darsana (visibility) and its accessibility by Point Isovist Studies and Visibility Graph Analysis from the entrance (Simha Dwara) to The Sanctum sanctorum (Garbhagriha).

Keywords: Hindu Temple Architecture, Point Isovist, space syntax analysis, visibility graph analysis.

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Authors: R. J. Kuo, W. C. Cheng, W. C. Lien, T. J. Yang

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Taiwan is a hyper endemic area for the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). The estimated total number of HBsAg carriers in the general population who are more than 20 years old is more than 3 million. Therefore, a case record review is conducted from January 2003 to June 2007 for all patients with a diagnosis of acute hepatitis who were admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a well-known teaching hospital. The cost for the use of medical resources is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) is firstly employed to reduce the number of dimensions. Support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) are then used to develop the forecasting model. A total of 117 patients meet the inclusion criteria. 61% patients involved in this study are hepatitis B related. The computational result shows that the proposed PCA-SVR model has superior performance than other compared algorithms. In conclusion, the Child-Pugh score and echogram can both be used to predict the cost of medical resources for patients with acute hepatitis in the ED.

Keywords: Acute hepatitis, Medical resource cost, Artificial neural network, Support vector regression.

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Authors: M. Rahou, A. Cheikh, F. Sebaa

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Manufacturing tolerancing is intended to determine the intermediate geometrical and dimensional states of the part during its manufacturing process. These manufacturing dimensions also serve to satisfy not only the functional requirements given in the definition drawing, but also the manufacturing constraints, for example geometrical defects of the machine, vibration and the wear of the cutting tool. In this paper, an experimental study on the influence of the wear of the cutting tool (systematic dispersions) is explored. This study was carried out on three stages .The first stage allows machining without elimination of dispersions (random, systematic) so the tolerances of manufacture according to total dispersions. In the second stage, the results of the first stage are filtered in such way to obtain the tolerances according to random dispersions. Finally, from the two previous stages, the systematic dispersions are generated. The objective of this study is to model by the least squares method the error of manufacture based on systematic dispersion. Finally, an approach of optimization of the manufacturing tolerances was developed for machining on a CNC machine tool

Keywords: Dispersions, Compensation, modeling, manufacturing Tolerance, machine tool.

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Authors: Nur Syibrah Muhamad Naim, Mohd Lazim Abdullah, Che Mohd Imran Che Taib, Abu OsmanMd. Tap

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Decision making preferences to certain criteria usually focus on positive degrees without considering the negative degrees. However, in real life situation, evaluation becomes more comprehensive if negative degrees are considered concurrently. Preference is expected to be more effective when considering both positive and negative degrees of preference to evaluate the best selection. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose the conflicting bifuzzy preference relations in group decision making by utilization of a novel score function. The conflicting bifuzzy preference relation is obtained by introducing some modifications on intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations. Releasing the intuitionistic condition by taking into account positive and negative degrees simultaneously and utilizing the novel score function are the main modifications to establish the proposed preference model. The proposed model is tested with a numerical example and proved to be simple and practical. The four-step decision model shows the efficiency of obtaining preference in group decision making.

Keywords: Fuzzy preference relations, score function, conflicting bifuzzy, decision making.

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Authors: V.Rezaie, M.Khanmohammady

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An original DEA model is to evaluate each DMU optimistically, but the interval DEA Model proposed in this paper has been formulated to obtain an efficiency interval consisting of Evaluations from both the optimistic and the pessimistic view points. DMUs are improved so that their lower bounds become so large as to attain the maximum Value one. The points obtained by this method are called ideal points. Ideal PPS is calculated by ideal of efficiency DMUs. The purpose of this paper is to rank DMUs by this ideal PPS. Finally we extend the efficiency interval of a DMU under variable RTS technology.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis (DEA), Decision makingunit (DMU), Interval DEA, Ideal points, Ideal PPS, Return to scale(RTS).

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Authors: B. Singh, B. K. Nanda

Abstract:

The characterization and modeling of the dynamic behavior of many built-up structures under vibration conditions is still a subject of current research. The present study emphasizes the theoretical investigation of slip damping in layered and jointed welded cantilever structures using finite element approach. Application of finite element method in damping analysis is relatively recent, as such, some problems particularly slip damping analysis has not received enough attention. To validate the finite element model developed, experiments have been conducted on a number of mild steel specimens under different initial conditions of vibration. Finite element model developed affirms that the damping capacity of such structures is influenced by a number of vital parameters such as; pressure distribution, kinematic coefficient of friction and micro-slip at the interfaces, amplitude, frequency of vibration, length and thickness of the specimen. Finite element model developed can be utilized effectively in the design of machine tools, automobiles, aerodynamic and space structures, frames and machine members for enhancing their damping capacity.

Keywords: Amplitude, finite element method, slip damping, tack welding.

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Authors: Ali Reza Mehrabian, Caro Lucas

Abstract:

In this paper a new control strategy based on Brain Emotional Learning (BEL) model has been introduced. A modified BEL model has been proposed to increase the degree of freedom, controlling capability, reliability and robustness, which can be implemented in real engineering systems. The performance of the proposed BEL controller has been illustrated by applying it on different nonlinear uncertain systems, showing very good adaptability and robustness, while maintaining stability.

Keywords: Learning control systems, emotional decision making, nonlinear systems, adaptive control.

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Authors: Athanasios T. Alexiou, Maria M. Psiha, John A. Rekkas, Panayiotis M. Vlamos

Abstract:

Mitochondria are dynamic organelles, capable to interact with each other. While the number of mitochondria in a cell varies, their quality and functionality depends on the operation of fusion, fission, motility and mitophagy. Nowadays, several researches declare as an important factor in neurogenerative diseases the disruptions in the regulation of mitochondrial dynamics. In this paper a stochastic model in BioAmbients calculus is presented, concerning mitochondrial fusion and its distribution in the renewal of mitochondrial population in a cell. This model describes the successive and dependent stages of protein synthesis, protein-s activation and merging of two independent mitochondria.

Keywords: Mitochondrial Dynamics, P-Calculus, StochasticModeling.

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Authors: A. W. J. Wong, I. H. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Increasing urbanisation has driven building designers to incorporate natural ventilation in the designs of sustainable buildings. This project utilises Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to investigate the natural ventilation of an academic building, SIT@SP, using an assessment criterion based on daily mean temperature and mean velocity. The areas of interest are the pedestrian level of first and fourth levels of the building. A reference case recommended by the Architectural Institute of Japan was used to validate the simulation model. The validated simulation model was then used for coupled simulations on SIT@SP and neighbouring geometries, under two wind speeds. Both steady and transient simulations were used to identify differences in results. Steady and transient results are agreeable with the transient simulation identifying peak velocities during flow development. Under a lower wind speed, the first level was sufficiently ventilated while the fourth level was not. The first level has excessive wind velocities in the higher wind speed and the fourth level was adequately ventilated. Fourth level flow velocity was consistently lower than those of the first level. This is attributed to either simulation model error or poor building design. SIT@SP is concluded to have a sufficiently ventilated first level and insufficiently ventilated fourth level. Future works for this project extend to modifying the urban geometry, simulation model improvements, evaluation using other assessment metrics and extending the area of interest to the entire building.

Keywords: Buildings, CFD simulation, natural ventilation, urban airflow.

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Authors: I. Norhuda, A. K. Mohd Omar

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Studies on gas solid mass transfer using Supercritical fluid CO2 (SC-CO2) in a packed bed of palm kernels was investigated at operating conditions of temperature 50 °C and 70 °C and pressures ranges from 27.6 MPa, 34.5 MPa, 41.4 MPa and 48.3 MPa. The development of mass transfer models requires knowledge of three properties: the diffusion coefficient of the solute, the viscosity and density of the Supercritical fluids (SCF). Matematical model with respect to the dimensionless number of Sherwood (Sh), Schmidt (Sc) and Reynolds (Re) was developed. It was found that the model developed was found to be in good agreement with the experimental data within the system studied.

Keywords: Mass Transfer, Palm Kernel, Supercritical fluid.

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Authors: Georgia C. Kosta, Christos S. Nicolaidis

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The present paper discusses the role of teams’ climate in the intrapreneurial process. Intrapreneurship, which corresponds for entrepreneurship in existing organizations, puts special emphasis on climate as an influential factor of the intrapreneurial behavior. Although climate exists at every level and in every subgroup of the organizational structure, research focuses mainly on the study of climate that characterizes organization as a whole. However, the climate of a work team may differ radically from the organizational climate, and in fact it can be far more influential. The paper provides a conceptual analysis of organizational climate from the intrapreneurial point of view, and sheds light upon teams’ climate role in the intrapreneurial posture.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, innovation, intrapreneurship, organizational climate, teams’ climate.

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Authors: Mohd Azrul Hisham Mohd Adib, Nur Hazreen Mohd Hasni

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A three-dimensional and pulsatile blood flow in the left ventricle of heart model has been studied numerically. The geometry was derived from a simple approximation of the left ventricle model and the numerical simulations were obtained using a formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations. In this study, simulation was used to investigate the pattern of flow velocity in 3D model of heart with consider the left ventricle based on critical parameter of blood under steady condition. Our results demonstrate that flow velocity focused from mitral valve channel and continuous linearly to left ventricle wall but this skewness progresses into outside wall in atrium through aortic valve with random distribution that is irregular due to force subtract from ventricle wall during cardiac cycle. The findings are the prediction of the behavior of the blood flow velocity pattern in steady flow condition which can assist the medical practitioners in their decision on the patients- treatments.

Keywords: Mitral Valve, Aortic Valve, Cardiac Cycle, Leaflet, Biomechanics, Left Ventricle

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Authors: Tao Dai, Andy Adler, Behnam Shahrrava

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This paper presents a forgetting factor scheme for variable step-size affine projection algorithms (APA). The proposed scheme uses a forgetting processed input matrix as the projection matrix of pseudo-inverse to estimate system deviation. This method introduces temporal weights into the projection matrix, which is typically a better model of the real error's behavior than homogeneous temporal weights. The regularization overcomes the ill-conditioning introduced by both the forgetting process and the increasing size of the input matrix. This algorithm is tested by independent trials with coloured input signals and various parameter combinations. Results show that the proposed algorithm is superior in terms of convergence rate and misadjustment compared to existing algorithms. As a special case, a variable step size NLMS with forgetting factor is also presented in this paper.

Keywords: Adaptive signal processing, affine projection algorithms, variable step-size adaptive algorithms, regularization.

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Authors: A. Giniatoulline

Abstract:

A nonlinear model of the mathematical fluid dynamics which describes the motion of an incompressible viscous rotating fluid in a homogeneous gravitational field is considered. The model is a generalization of the known Navier-Stokes system with the addition of the Coriolis parameter and the equations for changeable density. An explicit algorithm for the solution is constructed, and the proof of the existence and uniqueness theorems for the strong solution of the nonlinear problem is given. For the linear case, the localization and the structure of the spectrum of inner waves are also investigated.

Keywords: Galerkin method, Navier-Stokes equations, nonlinear partial differential equations, Sobolev spaces, stratified fluid.

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Authors: T. H. Bitebe, T. M. Lima, F. Charrua-Santos, C. J. Matias Oliveira

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This study aims to present a proposal for an economic integration model for the development of the manufacturing industry in Cabinda, Angola. It seeks to analyze the degree of economic integration of Cabinda and the dynamics of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, in the same way, to gather information to support the decision-making for public financing programs that will aim at the disengagement of the manufacturing industry in Angola and Cabinda in particular. The Cabinda Province is the 18^th of Angola, the enclave is located in a privileged area of the African and arable land.

Keywords: Economic integration, industrial development, Cabinda industry, Angola.

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Authors: Rizwan Moeen, Riaz Ahmad, Tanweer Ul Islam, Shahid Ikramullah, Muhammad Umer

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Supplier appraisal fosters energy in Supply Chain Management and helps in best optimization of viable business partners for a company. Many Decision Making techniques have already been proposed by researchers for supplier-s appraisal. However, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is assumed to be the most structured technique to attain near-best solution of the problem. This paper focuses at implementation of AHP in the procurement processes. It also suggests that on what factors a Public Sector Enterprises must focus while dealing with their suppliers and what should the suppliers do to synchronize their activities with the strategic objectives of Organization. It also highlights the weak areas in supplier appraisal process with a view to suggest viable recommendations.

Keywords: AHP, MCDM techniques, Supply Chain Management (SCM), Supplier appraisal.

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Authors: Guangzhuang Yu, Chun-Chu Liu

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With the advent of the Internet era in recent years, social music education has gradually shifted from the original entity education mode to the mode of entity plus network teaching. No matter for school music education, professional music education or social music education, the teaching quality is the most important evaluation index. Regarding the research on teaching quality evaluation, scholars at home and abroad have contributed a lot of research results on the basis of multiple methods and evaluation subjects. However, to our best knowledge the complete evaluation model for the virtual teaching interaction mode of the emerging network music education Application (APP) has not been established. This research firstly found out the basic dimensions that accord with the teaching quality required by the three parties, constructing the quality evaluation index system; and then, on the basis of expounding the connotation of each index, it determined the weight of each index by using method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, providing ideas and methods for scientific, objective and comprehensive evaluation of the teaching quality of network education APP.

Keywords: Network music education APP, teaching quality evaluation, index, connotation.

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

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The adoption and application of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in government administration through e-government is expected to permeate all sectors of state/ public institutions as well as democratic institutions. One of such public institutions is the Electoral Commission of Ghana mandated by the 1992 Constitution to hold all public elections including presidential and parliamentary elections. As Ghana holds its 7th General Elections since 1992, on 7th November 2016, there are demands from key stakeholders for the Election Management Body, which is the Electoral Commission (EC) of Ghana to adopt and implement an electronic voting system. This case study, therefore, attempts to contribute significantly to the debate by examining influencing factors that would impact on citizen’s readiness to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used as a theoretical framework for this study, out of which a research model and hypotheses were developed. Importantly, the outcome of this research finding would form a basis for appropriate policy recommendation for consideration of Government and EC of Ghana.

Keywords: Citizens readiness, e-government, electronic voting, technology acceptance model (TAM).

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Authors: Dejanira Araiza-Illan, Tony J. Dodd

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A novel biologically inspired controller for the autonomous navigation of a mobile robot in an evasion task is proposed. The controller takes advantage of the environment by calculating a measure of danger and subsequently choosing the parameters of a reinforcement learning based decision process. Two different reinforcement learning algorithms were used: Qlearning and Sarsa (λ). Simulations show that selecting dynamic parameters reduce the time while executing the decision making process, so the robot can obtain a policy to succeed in an escaping task in a realistic time.

Keywords: Autonomous navigation, mobile robots, reinforcement learning.

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Authors: Wen-Tsann Lin, Yung-Tsan Jou, Yih-Chuan Wu, Yuan-Du Hsiao

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The Emergency Department of a medical center in Taiwan cooperated to conduct the research. A predictive model of triage system is contracted from the contract procedure, selection of parameters to sample screening. 2,000 pieces of data needed for the patients is chosen randomly by the computer. After three categorizations of data mining (Multi-group Discriminant Analysis, Multinomial Logistic Regression, Back-propagation Neural Networks), it is found that Back-propagation Neural Networks can best distinguish the patients- extent of emergency, and the accuracy rate can reach to as high as 95.1%. The Back-propagation Neural Networks that has the highest accuracy rate is simulated into the triage acuity expert system in this research. Data mining applied to the predictive model of the triage acuity expert system can be updated regularly for both the improvement of the system and for education training, and will not be affected by subjective factors.

Keywords: Back-propagation Neural Networks, Data Mining, Emergency Department, Triage System.

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Authors: T. Kamalakis, I. Neokosmidis, D. Varoutas, T. Sphicopoulos

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The photonic component industry is a highly innovative industry with a large value chain. In order to ensure the growth of the industry much effort must be devoted to road mapping activities. In such activities demand and price evolution forecasting tools can prove quite useful in order to help in the roadmap refinement and update process. This paper attempts to provide useful guidelines in roadmapping of optical components and considers two models based on diffusion theory and the extended learning curve for demand and price evolution forecasting.

Keywords: Roadmapping, Photonic Components, Forecasting, Diffusion Theory.

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