Search results for: Drug activity prediction.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2455

Search results for: Drug activity prediction.

2155 The Traffic Prediction Multi-path Energy-aware Source Routing (TP-MESR)in Ad hoc Networks

Authors: Su Jin Kim, Ji Yeon Cho, Bong Gyou Lee

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to suggest energy efficient routing for ad hoc networks which are composed of nodes with limited energy. There are diverse problems including limitation of energy supply of node, and the node energy management problem has been presented. And a number of protocols have been proposed for energy conservation and energy efficiency. In this study, the critical point of the EA-MPDSR, that is the type of energy efficient routing using only two paths, is improved and developed. The proposed TP-MESR uses multi-path routing technique and traffic prediction function to increase number of path more than 2. It also verifies its efficiency compared to EA-MPDSR using network simulator (NS-2). Also, To give a academic value and explain protocol systematically, research guidelines which the Hevner(2004) suggests are applied. This proposed TP-MESR solved the existing multi-path routing problem related to overhead, radio interference, packet reassembly and it confirmed its contribution to effective use of energy in ad hoc networks.

Keywords: Ad hoc, energy-aware, multi-path, routing protocol, traffic prediction.

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2154 Biospeckle Techniques in Quality Evaluation of Indian Fruits

Authors: MD Zaheer Ansari, A.K. Nirala

Abstract:

In this study spatial-temporal speckle correlation techniques have been applied for the quality evaluation of three different Indian fruits namely apple, pear and tomato for the first time. The method is based on the analysis of variations of laser light scattered from biological samples. The results showed that crosscorrelation coefficients of biospeckle patterns change subject to their freshness and the storage conditions. The biospeckle activity was determined by means of the cross-correlation functions of the intensity fluctuations. Significant changes in biospeckle activity were observed during their shelf lives. From the study, it is found that the biospeckle activity decreases with the shelf-life storage time. Further it has been shown that biospeckle activity changes according to their respiration rates.

Keywords: Biospeckle, cross-correlation, respiration, shelf-life.

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2153 Probabilistic Approach of Dealing with Uncertainties in Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems and Situation Awareness for Multi-agent Systems

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.

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2152 Prediction of Compressive Strength of Self- Compacting Concrete with Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Paratibha Aggarwal, Yogesh Aggarwal

Abstract:

The paper presents the potential of fuzzy logic (FL-I) and neural network techniques (ANN-I) for predicting the compressive strength, for SCC mixtures. Six input parameters that is contents of cement, sand, coarse aggregate, fly ash, superplasticizer percentage and water-to-binder ratio and an output parameter i.e. 28- day compressive strength for ANN-I and FL-I are used for modeling. The fuzzy logic model showed better performance than neural network model.

Keywords: Self compacting concrete, compressive strength, prediction, neural network, Fuzzy logic.

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2151 Validation of Contemporary Physical Activity Tracking Technologies through Exercise in a Controlled Environment

Authors: Reem I. Altamimi, Geoff D. Skinner

Abstract:

Extended periods engaged in sedentary behavior increases the risk of becoming overweight and/or obese which is linked to other health problems. Adding technology to the term ‘active living’ permits its inclusion in promoting and facilitating habitual physical activity. Technology can either act as a barrier to, or facilitate this lifestyle, depending on the chosen technology. Physical Activity Monitoring Technologies (PAMTs) are a popular example of such technologies. Different contemporary PAMTs have been evaluated based on customer reviews; however, there is a lack of published experimental research into the efficacy of PAMTs. This research aims to investigate the reliability of four PAMTs: two wristbands (Fitbit Flex and Jawbone UP), a waist-clip (Fitbit One), and a mobile application (iPhone Health Application) for recording a specific distance walked on a treadmill (1.5km) at constant speed. Physical activity tracking technologies are varied in their recordings, even while performing the same activity. This research demonstrates that Jawbone UP band recorded the most accurate distance compared to Fitbit One, Fitbit Flex, and iPhone Health Application.

Keywords: Fitbit, Jawbone UP, mobile tracking applications, physical activity tracking technologies.

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2150 Correlated Neural Activity in Cortex and Thalamus Following Brain Injury

Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

It has been known that a characteristic Burst-Suppression (BS) pattern appears in EEG during the early recovery period following Cardiac Arrest (CA). Here, to explore the relationship between cortical and subcortical neural activities underlying BS, extracellular activity in the parietal cortex and the centromedian nucleus of the thalamus and extradural EEG were recorded in a rodent CA model. During the BS, the cortical firing rate is extraordinarily high, and that bursts in EEG correlate to dense spikes in cortical neurons. Newly observed phenomena are that 1) thalamic activity reemerges earlier than cortical activity following CA, and 2) the correlation coefficient of cortical and thalamic activities rises during BS period. These results would help elucidate the underlying mechanism of brain recovery after CA injury.

Keywords: Cortex, thalamus, cardiac arrest, burst-suppression.

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2149 Integration of Big Data to Predict Transportation for Smart Cities

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

Abstract:

The Intelligent transportation system is essential to build smarter cities. Machine learning based transportation prediction could be highly promising approach by delivering invisible aspect visible. In this context, this research aims to make a prototype model that predicts transportation network by using big data and machine learning technology. In detail, among urban transportation systems this research chooses bus system.  The research problem that existing headway model cannot response dynamic transportation conditions. Thus, bus delay problem is often occurred. To overcome this problem, a prediction model is presented to fine patterns of bus delay by using a machine learning implementing the following data sets; traffics, weathers, and bus statues. This research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data are gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is designed by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted tests for bus delays prediction. This research presents experiments to increase prediction accuracy for bus headway by analyzing the urban big data. The big data analysis is important to predict the future and to find correlations by processing huge amount of data. Therefore, based on the analysis method, this research represents an effective use of the machine learning and urban big data to understand urban dynamics.

Keywords: Big data, bus headway prediction, machine learning, public transportation.

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2148 Titanium Dioxide Modified with Glutathione as Potential Drug Carrier with Reduced Toxic Properties

Authors: Olga Długosz, Jolanta Pulit-Prociak, Marcin Banach

Abstract:

The paper presents a process to obtain glutathione-modified titanium oxide nanoparticles. The processes were carried out in a microwave radiation field. The influence of the molar ratio of glutathione to titanium oxide and the effect of the fold of NaOH vs. stoichiometric amount on the size of the formed TiO2 nanoparticles was determined. The physicochemical properties of the obtained products were evaluated using dynamic light scattering (DLS), transmission electron microscope- energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (TEM-EDS), low-temperature nitrogen adsorption method (BET), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) microscopy methods. The size of TiO2 nanoparticles was characterized from 30 nm to 336 nm. The release of titanium ions from the prepared products was evaluated. These studies were carried out using different media in which the powders were incubated for a specific time. These were: water, SBF and Ringer's solution. The release of titanium ions from modified products is weaker compared to unmodified titanium oxide nanoparticles. The reduced release of titanium ions may allow the use of such modified materials as substances in drug delivery systems.

Keywords: titanium dioxide, nanoparticles, drug carrier, glutathione

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2147 User Satisfaction and Acceptability of Dialogue Systems for Detecting Counterfeit Drugs

Authors: Oyelami M. Olufemi

Abstract:

The menace of counterfeiting pharmaceuticals/drugs has become a major threat to consumers, healthcare providers, drug manufacturers and governments. It is a source of public health concern both in the developed and developing nations. Several solutions for detecting and authenticating counterfeit drugs have been adopted by different nations of the world. In this article, a dialogue system-based drug counterfeiting detection system was developed and the results of the user satisfaction and acceptability of the system are presented. The results show that the users were satisfied with the system and the system was widely accepted as a means of fighting counterfeited drugs.

Keywords: Counterfeiting, dialogue system, drugs, voice application.

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2146 Multiclass Support Vector Machines with Simultaneous Multi-Factors Optimization for Corporate Credit Ratings

Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, William X. S. Wong

Abstract:

Corporate credit rating prediction is one of the most important topics, which has been studied by researchers in the last decade. Over the last decade, researchers are pushing the limit to enhance the exactness of the corporate credit rating prediction model by applying several data-driven tools including statistical and artificial intelligence methods. Among them, multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) has been widely applied due to its good predictability. However, heuristics, for example, parameters of a kernel function, appropriate feature and instance subset, has become the main reason for the critics on MSVM, as they have dictate the MSVM architectural variables. This study presents a hybrid MSVM model that is intended to optimize all the parameter such as feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameter. Our model adopts genetic algorithm (GA) to simultaneously optimize multiple heterogeneous design factors of MSVM.

Keywords: Corporate credit rating prediction, feature selection, genetic algorithms, instance selection, multiclass support vector machines.

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2145 Low Power Bus Binding Based on Dynamic Bit Reordering

Authors: Jihyung Kim, Taejin Kim, Sungho Park, Jun-Dong Cho

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of reducing switching activity in on-chip buses at the stage of high-level synthesis is considered, and a high-level low power bus binding based on dynamic bit reordering is proposed. Whereas conventional methods use a fixed bit ordering between variables within a bus, the proposed method switches a bit ordering dynamically to obtain a switching activity reduction. As a result, the proposed method finds a binding solution with a smaller value of total switching activity (TSA). Experimental result shows that the proposed method obtains a binding solution having 12.0-34.9% smaller TSA compared with the conventional methods.

Keywords: bit reordering, bus binding, low power, switching activity matrix

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2144 Anticancer Effect of Doxorubicin Loaded Heparin based Super-paramagnetic Iron oxide Nanoparticles against the Human Ovarian Cancer Cells

Authors: Amaneh Javid, Shahin Ahmadian, Ali A. Saboury, Saeed Rezaei-Zarchi

Abstract:

This study determines the effect of naked and heparinbased super-paramagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles on the human cancer cell lines of A2780. Doxorubicin was used as the anticancer drug, entrapped in the SPIO-NPs. This study aimed to decorate nanoparticles with heparin, a molecular ligand for 'active' targeting of cancerous cells and the application of modified-nanoparticles in cancer treatment. The nanoparticles containing the anticancer drug DOX were prepared by a solvent evaporation and emulsification cross-linking method. The physicochemical properties of the nanoparticles were characterized by various techniques, and uniform nanoparticles with an average particle size of 110±15 nm with high encapsulation efficiencies (EE) were obtained. Additionally, a sustained release of DOX from the SPIO-NPs was successful. Cytotoxicity tests showed that the SPIO-DOX-HP had higher cell toxicity than the individual HP and confocal microscopy analysis confirmed excellent cellular uptake efficiency. These results indicate that HP based SPIO-NPs have potential uses as anticancer drug carriers and also have an enhanced anticancer effect.

Keywords: Heparin, A2780 cells, ovarian cancer, nanoparticles, doxorubicin.

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2143 A Network Traffic Prediction Algorithm Based On Data Mining Technique

Authors: D. Prangchumpol

Abstract:

This paper is a description approach to predict incoming and outgoing data rate in network system by using association rule discover, which is one of the data mining techniques. Information of incoming and outgoing data in each times and network bandwidth are network performance parameters, which needed to solve in the traffic problem. Since congestion and data loss are important network problems. The result of this technique can predicted future network traffic. In addition, this research is useful for network routing selection and network performance improvement.

Keywords: Traffic prediction, association rule, data mining.

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2142 Phytochemical Profiles and Antioxidant Activity of Selected Indigenous Vegetables in Northern Mindanao, Philippines

Authors: Renee P. Baang, Romeo M. Del Rosario, Nenita D. Palmes

Abstract:

The crude methanol extracts of five indigenous vegetables namely, Amarathus tricolor, Basella rubra L., Chochurus olitorius L., Ipomea batatas, and Momordica chuchinensis L., were examined for their phytochemical profile and antioxidant activity using 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) free radical. The values for DPPH radical scavenging activity ranged from 7.6-89.53% with B. rubra and I. batatas having the lowest and highest values, respectively. The total flavonoid content of all five indigenous vegetables ranged from 74.65-277.3 mg quercetin equivalent per gram of dried vegetable material while the total phenolic content ranged from 1.93-6.15 mg gallic acid equivalent per gram dried material. Phytochemical screening revealed the presence of steroids, flavonoids, saponins, tannins, carbohydrates and reducing sugars, which may also be associated with the antioxidant activity shown by these indigenous vegetables.

Keywords: Antioxidant, DPPH radical scavenging activity, Philippine indigenous vegetables, phytochemical screening.

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2141 Discovery of Human HMG-Coa Reductase Inhibitors Using Structure-Based Pharmacophore Modeling Combined with Molecular Dynamics Simulation Methodologies

Authors: Minky Son, Chanin Park, Ayoung Baek, Shalini John, Keun Woo Lee

Abstract:

3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMGR) catalyzes the conversion of HMG-CoA to mevalonate using NADPH and the enzyme is involved in rate-controlling step of mevalonate. Inhibition of HMGR is considered as effective way to lower cholesterol levels so it is drug target to treat hypercholesterolemia, major risk factor of cardiovascular disease. To discover novel HMGR inhibitor, we performed structure-based pharmacophore modeling combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Four HMGR inhibitors were used for MD simulation and representative structure of each simulation were selected by clustering analysis. Four structure-based pharmacophore models were generated using the representative structure. The generated models were validated used in virtual screening to find novel scaffolds for inhibiting HMGR. The screened compounds were filtered by applying drug-like properties and used in molecular docking. Finally, four hit compounds were obtained and these complexes were refined using energy minimization. These compounds might be potential leads to design novel HMGR inhibitor.

Keywords: Anti-hypercholesterolemia drug, HMGR inhibitor, Molecular dynamics simulation, Structure-based pharmacophore modeling.

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2140 The Formation of Motivational Sphere for Learning Activity under Conditions of Change of One of Its Leading Components

Authors: M. Rodionov, Z. Dedovets

Abstract:

This article discusses ways to implement a differentiated approach to developing academic motivation for mathematical studies which relies on defining the primary structural characteristics of motivation. The following characteristics are considered: features of realization of cognitive activity, meaningmaking characteristics, level of generalization and consistency of knowledge acquired by personal experience. The assessment of the present level of individual student understanding of each component of academic motivation is the basis for defining the relevant educational strategy for its further development.

Keywords: Learning activity, mathematics, motivation, student.

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2139 Quantitative Determination of Free Radical Scavenging Activity and Anti-tumor Activity of Some Myanmar Herbal Plants

Authors: M. M. Mon, S. S. Maw, Z. K. Oo

Abstract:

Antioxidant activities of ethanolic extracts of Ardisia japonica Blume., Ageartum conyzoides Linn., and Cocculus hirsutus Linn Diels. leaves was determined qualitatively and quantitatively in this research. 1, 1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) free radical solution was used to investigate free radical scavenging activity of these leaves extracts. Ascorbic acid (Vitamin C) was used as the standard. In the present investigation, it is found that all of these extracts have remarkable antioxidant activities. The EC50 values of these ethanolic extracts were 12.72 μg/ml for A. japonica, 15.19 μg/ml for A. conyzoides, 10.68 μg/ml for C. hirsutus respectively. Among these Myanmar medicinal plants, C. hirsutus showed higher antioxidant activities as well as free radical scavenging activity than black tea (Camellia sinensis), the famous antioxidant, and A. japonica and A. conyzoides showed a rather lower antioxidant activity than tea extracts. According to results from bioassay with carrot discs infected with Agrobacterium tumefaciens, all extracts showed anti-tumor activity after 3 weeks of incubation. No gall was detected in carrot disks treated with C. hirsutus and A. japonica extracts in the dose of 100ppm and in carrot discs treated with A. conyzoides extract in the dose of 1000 ppm. Therefore, the research clearly indicates that these weedy plants of dry farm land are exceptionally advantageous for human health.

Keywords: Antioxidant, Anti-tumor activity, Carrot-discbioassay, DPPH

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2138 Soybean and Fermented Soybean Extract Antioxidant Activities

Authors: W. Samruan, A. Oonsivilai, R. Oonsivilai

Abstract:

Today, people are more interested in the foods beneficial on their health. However, there are still lacks of accurate knowledge in the field of biological properties, functional properties, including the application of legume in foods. This study focused on antioxidant activity of soybean (SB) and fermented soybean (FSB) crude extracts evaluating to have more information in fortification SB and FSB crude extracts in food products and/or dietary supplement. SB and FSB crude extracts were prepared by infusion with water and ethanol. The antioxidant activity of crude extracts was studied with DPPH and ABTS assay including commercial standard. From both DPPH and ABTS assay, the antioxidant activity of SB and FSB water crude extract showed higher antioxidant activity than ethanol crude extract, and FSB crude extract showed higher antioxidant activity than SB crude extract. In DPPH assay, BHT and vitamin C showed IC50 values at 0.241, 0.039 mg/ml, in ABTS assay. In addition, Trolox showed IC50 at 0.058 mg/ml respectively. FSB water crude extract showed high antioxidant activity. Finally, the functional properties study of both water and ethanol crude extracts should be done for beneficial in application of these extracts in food products and dietary supplement in the near future.

Keywords: Antioxidant activity, Fermented soybean (FSB) crude extracts, soybean (SB) crude extracts.

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2137 Solvent Effect on Antioxidant Activity and Total Phenolic Content of Betula alba and Convolvulus arvensi

Authors: Mohd Azman A. Nurul, Husni Shafik, Almajano P. Maria, Gallego G. Maria

Abstract:

The potential of using herbal Betula alba (BA) and Convolvulus arvensis (CA) as a natural antioxidant for food applications were investigated. Each plant extract was prepared by using pure ethanol, different concentration of ethanol aqueous solutions, including 50% and 75%, 50% methanol aqueous and water. Total phenolic content (TPC) was determined using Folin–Ciocalteau method and antioxidant activity were analyzed by 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radicals, trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC), Oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) and ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) respectively. Ethanol extract of CA exhibited the highest TPC and antioxidant activity; however BA showed varies of antioxidant activity value in each assay. The BA and CA exhibit the potential sources of natural antioxidant for food commodities.

Keywords: Solvent effect, Antioxidant activity, Betula Alba, Convolvulus arvensis, Total Phenolic Content.

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2136 The Effect of Critical Activity on Critical Path and Project Duration in Precedence Diagram Method

Authors: J. Nisar, S. Halim

Abstract:

The additional relationships i.e., start-to-start, finish-to-finish, and start-to-finish, between activity in Precedence Diagram Method (PDM) provides a more flexible schedule than traditional Critical Path Method (CPM). But, changing the duration of critical activities in the PDM network will have an anomalous effect on the critical path and the project completion date. In this study, we classified the critical activities in two groups i.e., 1. activity on single critical path and 2. activity on multi-critical paths, and six classes i.e., normal, reverse, neutral, perverse, decrease-reverse and increase-normal, based on their effects on project duration in PDM. Furthermore, we determined the maximum float of time by which the duration each type of critical activities can be changed without effecting the project duration. This study would help the project manager to clearly understand the behavior of each critical activity on critical path, and he/she would be able to change the project duration by shortening or lengthening activities based on project budget and project deadline.

Keywords: Construction project management, critical path method, project scheduling, precedence diagram method.

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2135 A Prediction Model Using the Price Cyclicality Function Optimized for Algorithmic Trading in Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction.

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2134 A Combined Neural Network Approach to Soccer Player Prediction

Authors: Wenbin Zhang, Hantian Wu, Jian Tang

Abstract:

An artificial neural network is a mathematical model inspired by biological neural networks. There are several kinds of neural networks and they are widely used in many areas, such as: prediction, detection, and classification. Meanwhile, in day to day life, people always have to make many difficult decisions. For example, the coach of a soccer club has to decide which offensive player to be selected to play in a certain game. This work describes a novel Neural Network using a combination of the General Regression Neural Network and the Probabilistic Neural Networks to help a soccer coach make an informed decision.

Keywords: General Regression Neural Network, Probabilistic Neural Networks, Neural function.

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2133 Effects of Allelochemical Gramine on Metabolic Activity and Ultrastructure of Cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa

Authors: Y. Hong, H. Y. Hu, A. Sakoda, M. Sagehashi

Abstract:

In this study, inhibition of Microcystis aeruginosa by antialgal alleochemical gramine, was studied by analyzing algal metabolic activity (represented by esterase and total dehydrogenase activities) and cell ultrastructure (showing morphological and ultrastructure alterations using transmission electron microscopy and DNA ladder analysis). After gramine exposure, esterase and total dehydrogenase activities were increased firstly but decreased later. In contrast with the controls, the cells exposed to gramine showed apparent ultrastructure alterations with thylakoids in breakage, phycobilins in decrease, lipid and cyanophycin granules abundant firstly but dissolved afterwards, DNA in fragementation. The occurrence of increase of metabolic activity and specific granules reflected that the resistance of cellular response to gramine was initiated. DNA fragementation associated with the increase of metabolic activity and specific granules hinted that gramine caused M. aeruginosa cells to initiate some morphotype of programmed cell death.

Keywords: Allelochemical, gramine, metabolic activity, Microcystis aeruginosa, ultrastructure.

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2132 Water Demand Prediction for Touristic Mecca City in Saudi Arabia using Neural Networks

Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali

Abstract:

Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.

Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.

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2131 Software Reliability Prediction Model Analysis

Authors: L. Mirtskhulava, M. Khunjgurua, N. Lomineishvili, K. Bakuria

Abstract:

Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: Exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability.

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2130 Reliability Analysis for Cyclic Fatigue Life Prediction in Railroad Bolt Hole

Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

Abstract:

Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: Rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis.

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2129 Methyltrioctylammonium Chloride as a Separation Solvent for Binary Mixtures: Evaluation Based on Experimental Activity Coefficients

Authors: B. Kabane, G. G. Redhi

Abstract:

An ammonium based ionic liquid (methyltrioctylammonium chloride) [N8 8 8 1] [Cl] was investigated as an extraction potential solvent for volatile organic solvents (in this regard, solutes), which includes alkenes, alkanes, ketones, alkynes, aromatic hydrocarbons, tetrahydrofuran (THF), alcohols, thiophene, water and acetonitrile based on the experimental activity coefficients at infinite THF measurements were conducted by the use of gas-liquid chromatography at four different temperatures (313.15 to 343.15) K. Experimental data of activity coefficients obtained across the examined temperatures were used in order to calculate the physicochemical properties at infinite dilution such as partial molar excess enthalpy, Gibbs free energy and entropy term. Capacity and selectivity data for selected petrochemical extraction problems (heptane/thiophene, heptane/benzene, cyclohaxane/cyclohexene, hexane/toluene, hexane/hexene) were computed from activity coefficients data and compared to the literature values with other ionic liquids. Evaluation of activity coefficients at infinite dilution expands the knowledge and provides a good understanding related to the interactions between the ionic liquid and the investigated compounds.

Keywords: Separation, activity coefficients, ionic liquid, methyltrioctylammonium chloride, capacity.

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2128 Identification, Prediction and Detection of the Process Fault in a Cement Rotary Kiln by Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy Technique

Authors: Masoud Sadeghian, Alireza Fatehi

Abstract:

In this paper, we use nonlinear system identification method to predict and detect process fault of a cement rotary kiln. After selecting proper inputs and output, an input-output model is identified for the plant. To identify the various operation points in the kiln, Locally Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) model is used. This model is trained by LOLIMOT algorithm which is an incremental treestructure algorithm. Then, by using this method, we obtained 3 distinct models for the normal and faulty situations in the kiln. One of the models is for normal condition of the kiln with 15 minutes prediction horizon. The other two models are for the two faulty situations in the kiln with 7 minutes prediction horizon are presented. At the end, we detect these faults in validation data. The data collected from White Saveh Cement Company is used for in this study.

Keywords: Cement Rotary Kiln, Fault Detection, Delay Estimation Method, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model, LOLIMOT.

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2127 Predicting Protein-Protein Interactions from Protein Sequences Using Phylogenetic Profiles

Authors: Omer Nebil Yaveroglu, Tolga Can

Abstract:

In this study, a high accuracy protein-protein interaction prediction method is developed. The importance of the proposed method is that it only uses sequence information of proteins while predicting interaction. The method extracts phylogenetic profiles of proteins by using their sequence information. Combining the phylogenetic profiles of two proteins by checking existence of homologs in different species and fitting this combined profile into a statistical model, it is possible to make predictions about the interaction status of two proteins. For this purpose, we apply a collection of pattern recognition techniques on the dataset of combined phylogenetic profiles of protein pairs. Support Vector Machines, Feature Extraction using ReliefF, Naive Bayes Classification, K-Nearest Neighborhood Classification, Decision Trees, and Random Forest Classification are the methods we applied for finding the classification method that best predicts the interaction status of protein pairs. Random Forest Classification outperformed all other methods with a prediction accuracy of 76.93%

Keywords: Protein Interaction Prediction, Phylogenetic Profile, SVM , ReliefF, Decision Trees, Random Forest Classification

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2126 Urban Big Data: An Experimental Approach to Building-Value Estimation Using Web-Based Data

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

Abstract:

Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.

Keywords: Big data, building-value analysis, machine learning, price prediction.

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