Search results for: generalized Bass model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7691

Search results for: generalized Bass model

7691 Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes

Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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7690 The New Relative Efficiency Based on the Least Eigenvalue in Generalized Linear Model

Authors: Chao Yuan, Bao Guang Tian

Abstract:

A new relative efficiency is defined as LSE and BLUE in the generalized linear model. The relative efficiency is based on the ratio of the least eigenvalues. In this paper, we discuss about its lower bound and the relationship between it and generalized relative coefficient. Finally, this paper proves that the new estimation is better under Stein function and special condition in some degree.

Keywords: Generalized linear model, generalized relative coefficient, least eigenvalue, relative efficiency.

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7689 Implementation of Generalized Plasticity in Load-Deformation Behavior of Foundation with Emphasis on Localization Problem

Authors: A. H. Akhaveissy

Abstract:

Nonlinear finite element method with eight noded isoparametric quadrilateral element is used for prediction of loaddeformation behavior including bearing capacity of foundations. Modified generalized plasticity model with non-associated flow rule is applied for analysis of soil-footing system. Also Von Mises and Tresca criterions are used for simulation of soil behavior. Modified generalized plasticity model is able to simulate load-deformation including softening behavior. Localization phenomena are considered by different meshes. Localization phenomena have not been seen in the examples. Predictions by modified generalized plasticity model show good agreement with laboratory data and theoretical prediction in comparison the other models.

Keywords: Localization phenomena, Generalized plasticity, Non-associated Flow Rule

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7688 2D Numerical Analysis of Sao Paulo Tunnel

Authors: A.H. Akhaveissy

Abstract:

Nonlinear finite element method and Serendipity eight nodes element are used for determining of ground surface settlement due to tunneling. Linear element with elastic behavior is used for modeling of lining. Modified Generalized plasticity model with nonassociated flow rule is applied for analysis of a tunnel in Sao Paulo – Brazil. The tunnel had analyzed by Lades- model with 16 parameters. In this work modified Generalized Plasticity is used with 10 parameters, also Mohr-Coulomb model is used to analysis the tunnel. The results show good agreement with observed results of field data by modified Generalized Plasticity model than other models. The obtained result by Mohr-Coulomb model shows less settlement than other model due to excavation.

Keywords: Non-associated flow rule, Generalized plasticity, tunnel excavation, Excavation method.

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7687 Complex-Valued Neural Network in Signal Processing: A Study on the Effectiveness of Complex Valued Generalized Mean Neuron Model

Authors: Anupama Pande, Ashok Kumar Thakur, Swapnoneel Roy

Abstract:

A complex valued neural network is a neural network which consists of complex valued input and/or weights and/or thresholds and/or activation functions. Complex-valued neural networks have been widening the scope of applications not only in electronics and informatics, but also in social systems. One of the most important applications of the complex valued neural network is in signal processing. In Neural networks, generalized mean neuron model (GMN) is often discussed and studied. The GMN includes a new aggregation function based on the concept of generalized mean of all the inputs to the neuron. This paper aims to present exhaustive results of using Generalized Mean Neuron model in a complex-valued neural network model that uses the back-propagation algorithm (called -Complex-BP-) for learning. Our experiments results demonstrate the effectiveness of a Generalized Mean Neuron Model in a complex plane for signal processing over a real valued neural network. We have studied and stated various observations like effect of learning rates, ranges of the initial weights randomly selected, error functions used and number of iterations for the convergence of error required on a Generalized Mean neural network model. Some inherent properties of this complex back propagation algorithm are also studied and discussed.

Keywords: Complex valued neural network, Generalized Meanneuron model, Signal processing.

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7686 Generalized Fuzzy Subalgebras and Fuzzy Ideals of BCI-Algebras with Operators

Authors: Yuli Hu, Shaoquan Sun

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to introduce the concepts of generalized fuzzy subalgebras, generalized fuzzy ideals and generalized fuzzy quotient algebras of BCI-algebras with operators, and to investigate their basic properties.

Keywords: BCI-algebras with operators, generalized fuzzy subalgebras, generalized fuzzy ideals, generalized fuzzy quotient algebras.

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7685 Investigation on Machine Tools Energy Consumptions

Authors: Shiva Abdoli, Daniel T. Semere

Abstract:

Several researches have been conducted to study consumption of energy in cutting process. Most of these researches are focusing to measure the consumption and propose consumption reduction methods. In this work, the relation between the cutting parameters and the consumption is investigated in order to establish a generalized energy consumption model that can be used for process and production planning in real production lines. Using the generalized model, the process planning will be carried out by taking into account the energy as a function of the selected process parameters. Similarly, the generalized model can be used in production planning to select the right operational parameters like batch sizes, routing, buffer size, etc. in a production line. The description and derivation of the model as well as a case study are given in this paper to illustrate the applicability and validity of the model.

Keywords: Process parameters, cutting process, energy efficiency, Material Removal Rate (MRR).

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7684 Generalized Chaplygin Gas and Varying Bulk Viscosity in Lyra Geometry

Authors: A. K. Sethi, R. N. Patra, B. Nayak

Abstract:

In this paper, we have considered Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) metric with generalized Chaplygin gas which has viscosity in the context of Lyra geometry. The viscosity is considered in two different ways (i.e. zero viscosity, non-constant r (rho)-dependent bulk viscosity) using constant deceleration parameter which concluded that, for a special case, the viscous generalized Chaplygin gas reduces to modified Chaplygin gas. The represented model indicates on the presence of Chaplygin gas in the Universe. Observational constraints are applied and discussed on the physical and geometrical nature of the Universe.

Keywords: Bulk viscosity, Lyra geometry, generalized Chaplygin gas, cosmology.

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7683 Application of a Generalized Additive Model to Reveal the Relations between the Density of Zooplankton with Other Variables in the West Daya Bay, China

Authors: Weiwen Li, Hao Huang, Chengmao You, Jianji Liao, Lei Wang, Lina An

Abstract:

Zooplankton are a central issue in the ecology which makes a great contribution to maintaining the balance of an ecosystem. It is critical in promoting the material cycle and energy flow within the ecosystems. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the relationships between the density (individuals per m³) of zooplankton and other variables in West Daya Bay. All data used in this analysis (the survey month, survey station (longitude and latitude), the depth of the water column, the superficial concentration of chlorophyll a, the benthonic concentration of chlorophyll a, the number of zooplankton species and the number of zooplankton species) were collected through monthly scientific surveys during January to December 2016. GLM model (generalized linear model) was used to choose the significant variables’ impact on the density of zooplankton, and the GAM was employed to analyze the relationship between the density of zooplankton and the significant variables. The results showed that the density of zooplankton increased with an increase of the benthonic concentration of chlorophyll a, but decreased with a decrease in the depth of the water column. Both high numbers of zooplankton species and the overall total number of zooplankton individuals led to a higher density of zooplankton.

Keywords: Density, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, the West Daya Bay, zooplankton.

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7682 An Iterative Algorithm to Compute the Generalized Inverse A(2) T,S Under the Restricted Inner Product

Authors: Xingping Sheng

Abstract:

Let T and S be a subspace of Cn and Cm, respectively. Then for A ∈ Cm×n satisfied AT ⊕ S = Cm, the generalized inverse A(2) T,S is given by A(2) T,S = (PS⊥APT )†. In this paper, a finite formulae is presented to compute generalized inverse A(2) T,S under the concept of restricted inner product, which defined as < A,B >T,S=< PS⊥APT,B > for the A,B ∈ Cm×n. By this iterative method, when taken the initial matrix X0 = PTA∗PS⊥, the generalized inverse A(2) T,S can be obtained within at most mn iteration steps in absence of roundoff errors. Finally given numerical example is shown that the iterative formulae is quite efficient.

Keywords: Generalized inverse A(2) T, S, Restricted inner product, Iterative method, Orthogonal projection.

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7681 Dynamic Model of a Buck Converter with a Sliding Mode Control

Authors: S. Chonsatidjamroen , K-N. Areerak, K-L. Areerak

Abstract:

This paper presents the averaging model of a buck converter derived from the generalized state-space averaging method. The sliding mode control is used to regulate the output voltage of the converter and taken into account in the model. The proposed model requires the fast computational time compared with those of the full topology model. The intensive time-domain simulations via the exact topology model are used as the comparable model. The results show that a good agreement between the proposed model and the switching model is achieved in both transient and steady-state responses. The reported model is suitable for the optimal controller design by using the artificial intelligence techniques.

Keywords: Generalized state-space averaging method, buck converter, sliding mode control, modeling, simulation.

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7680 Generalized Chebyshev Collocation Method

Authors: Junghan Kim, Wonkyu Chung, Sunyoung Bu, Philsu Kim

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a generalized Chebyshev collocation method (GCCM) based on the generalized Chebyshev polynomials for solving stiff systems. For employing a technique of the embedded Runge-Kutta method used in explicit schemes, the property of the generalized Chebyshev polynomials is used, in which the nodes for the higher degree polynomial are overlapped with those for the lower degree polynomial. The constructed algorithm controls both the error and the time step size simultaneously and further the errors at each integration step are embedded in the algorithm itself, which provides the efficiency of the computational cost. For the assessment of the effectiveness, numerical results obtained by the proposed method and the Radau IIA are presented and compared.

Keywords: Generalized Chebyshev Collocation method, Generalized Chebyshev Polynomial, Initial value problem.

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7679 (T1, T2)*- Semi Star Generalized Locally Closed Sets

Authors: M. Sundararaman, K. Chandrasekhara Rao

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to continue the study of (T1, T2)-semi star generalized closed sets by introducing the concepts of (T1, T2)-semi star generalized locally closed sets and study their basic properties in bitopological spaces.

Keywords: (T1, T2)*-semi star generalized locally closed sets, T1T2-semi star generalized closed sets.

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7678 The Baer Radical of Rings in Term of Prime and Semiprime Generalized Bi-ideals

Authors: Rattiya Boonruang, Aiyared Iampan

Abstract:

Using the idea of prime and semiprime bi-ideals of rings, the concept of prime and semiprime generalized bi-ideals of rings is introduced, which is an extension of the concept of prime and semiprime bi-ideals of rings and some interesting characterizations of prime and semiprime generalized bi-ideals are obtained. Also, we give the relationship between the Baer radical and prime and semiprime generalized bi-ideals of rings in the same way as of biideals of rings which was studied by Roux.

Keywords: ring, prime and semiprime (generalized) bi-ideal, Baer radical.

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7677 Forecasting Electricity Spot Price with Generalized Long Memory Modeling: Wavelet and Neural Network

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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7676 Convergence Analysis of the Generalized Alternating Two-Stage Method

Authors: Guangbin Wang, Liangliang Li, Fuping Tan

Abstract:

In this paper, we give the generalized alternating twostage method in which the inner iterations are accomplished by a generalized alternating method. And we present convergence results of the method for solving nonsingular linear systems when the coefficient matrix of the linear system is a monotone matrix or an H-matrix.

Keywords: Generalized alternating two-stage method, linear system, convergence.

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7675 The Gerber-Shiu Functions of a Risk Model with Two Classes of Claims and Random Income

Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks and random premium income. We assume that the premium income process is a Poisson Process, and the claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang(n) processes, respectively. Both of the Gerber- Shiu functions with zero initial surplus and the probability generating functions (p.g.f.) of the Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained.

Keywords: Poisson process, generalized Erlang risk process, Gerber-Shiu function, generating function, generalized Lundberg equation.

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7674 Regular Generalized Star Star closed sets in Bitopological Spaces

Authors: K. Kannan, D. Narasimhan, K. Chandrasekhara Rao, R. Ravikumar

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to introduce the concepts of τ1τ2-regular generalized star star closed sets , τ1τ2-regular generalized star star open sets and study their basic properties in bitopological spaces.

Keywords: τ1τ2-regular closed sets, τ1τ2-regular open sets, τ1τ2-regular generalized closed sets, τ1τ2-regular generalized star closed sets, τ1τ2-regular generalized star star closed sets.

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7673 A Generalized Framework for Working with Multiagent Systems

Authors: Debal Saha, NirmalBaranHui

Abstract:

The present paper discusses the basic concepts and the underlying principles of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) along with an interdisciplinary exploitation of these principles. It has been found that they have been utilized for lots of research and studies on various systems spanning across diverse engineering and scientific realms showing the need of development of a proper generalized framework. Such framework has been developed for the Multi-Agent Systems and it has been generalized keeping in mind the diverse areas where they find application. All the related aspects have been categorized and a general definition has been given where ever possible.

Keywords: Generalized framework, multiagent systems.

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7672 Generalized d-q Model of n-Phase Induction Motor Drive

Authors: G. Renukadevi, K. Rajambal

Abstract:

This paper presents a generalized d-q model of n- phase induction motor drive. Multi -phase (n-phase) induction motor (more than three phases) drives possess several advantages over conventional three-phase drives, such as reduced current/phase without increasing voltage/phase, lower torque pulsation, higher torque density, fault tolerance, stability, high efficiency and lower current ripple. When the number of phases increases, it is also possible to increase the power in the same frame. In this paper, a generalized dq-axis model is developed in Matlab/Simulink for an n-phase induction motor. The simulation results are presented for 5, 6, 7, 9 and 12 phase induction motor under varying load conditions. Transient response of the multi-phase induction motors are given for different number of phases. Fault tolerant feature is also analyzed for 5-phase induction motor drive.

Keywords: d-q model, dynamic Response, fault tolerant feature, Matlab/Simulink, multi-phase induction motor, transient response.

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7671 On Properties of Generalized Bi-Γ-Ideals of Γ-Semirings

Authors: Teerayut Chomchuen, Aiyared Iampan

Abstract:

The notion of Γ-semirings was introduced by Murali Krishna Rao as a generalization of the notion of Γ-rings as well as of semirings. We have known that the notion of Γ-semirings is a generalization of the notion of semirings. In this paper, extending Kaushik, Moin and Khan’s work, we generalize the notion of generalized bi-Γ-ideals of Γ-semirings and investigate some related properties of generalized bi-Γ-ideals.

Keywords: Γ-semiring, bi-Γ-ideal, generalized bi-Γ-ideal.

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7670 Modelling Extreme Temperature in Malaysia Using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam

Abstract:

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.

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7669 Solving Linear Matrix Equations by Matrix Decompositions

Authors: Yongxin Yuan, Kezheng Zuo

Abstract:

In this paper, a system of linear matrix equations is considered. A new necessary and sufficient condition for the consistency of the equations is derived by means of the generalized singular-value decomposition, and the explicit representation of the general solution is provided.

Keywords: Matrix equation, Generalized inverse, Generalized singular-value decomposition.

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7668 Restarted Generalized Second-Order Krylov Subspace Methods for Solving Quadratic Eigenvalue Problems

Authors: Liping Zhou, Liang Bao, Yiqin Lin, Yimin Wei, Qinghua Wu

Abstract:

This article is devoted to the numerical solution of large-scale quadratic eigenvalue problems. Such problems arise in a wide variety of applications, such as the dynamic analysis of structural mechanical systems, acoustic systems, fluid mechanics, and signal processing. We first introduce a generalized second-order Krylov subspace based on a pair of square matrices and two initial vectors and present a generalized second-order Arnoldi process for constructing an orthonormal basis of the generalized second-order Krylov subspace. Then, by using the projection technique and the refined projection technique, we propose a restarted generalized second-order Arnoldi method and a restarted refined generalized second-order Arnoldi method for computing some eigenpairs of largescale quadratic eigenvalue problems. Some theoretical results are also presented. Some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Quadratic eigenvalue problem, Generalized secondorder Krylov subspace, Generalized second-order Arnoldi process, Projection technique, Refined technique, Restarting.

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7667 Minimization Problems for Generalized Reflexive and Generalized Anti-Reflexive Matrices

Authors: Yongxin Yuan

Abstract:

Let R ∈ Cm×m and S ∈ Cn×n be nontrivial unitary involutions, i.e., RH = R = R−1 = ±Im and SH = S = S−1 = ±In. A ∈ Cm×n is said to be a generalized reflexive (anti-reflexive) matrix if RAS = A (RAS = −A). Let ρ be the set of m × n generalized reflexive (anti-reflexive) matrices. Given X ∈ Cn×p, Z ∈ Cm×p, Y ∈ Cm×q and W ∈ Cn×q, we characterize the matrices A in ρ that minimize AX−Z2+Y HA−WH2, and, given an arbitrary A˜ ∈ Cm×n, we find a unique matrix among the minimizers of AX − Z2 + Y HA − WH2 in ρ that minimizes A − A˜. We also obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for existence of A ∈ ρ such that AX = Z, Y HA = WH, and characterize the set of all such matrices A if the conditions are satisfied. These results are applied to solve a class of left and right inverse eigenproblems for generalized reflexive (anti-reflexive) matrices.

Keywords: approximation, generalized reflexive matrix, generalized anti-reflexive matrix, inverse eigenvalue problem.

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7666 Comparison of different Channel Modeling Techniques used in the BPLC Systems

Authors: Justinian Anatory, Nelson Theethayi

Abstract:

The paper compares different channel models used for modeling Broadband Power-Line Communication (BPLC) system. The models compared are Zimmermann and Dostert, Philipps, Anatory et al and Anatory et al generalized Transmission Line (TL) model. The validity of each model was compared in time domain with ATP-EMTP software which uses transmission line approach. It is found that for a power-line network with minimum number of branches all the models give similar signal/pulse time responses compared with ATP-EMTP software; however, Zimmermann and Dostert model indicates the same amplitude but different time delay. It is observed that when the numbers of branches are increased only generalized TL theory approach results are comparable with ATPEMTP results. Also the Multi-Carrier Spread Spectrum (MC-SS) system was applied to check the implication of such behavior on the modulation schemes. It is observed that using Philipps on the underground cable can predict the performance up to 25dB better than other channel models which can misread the actual performance of the system. Also modified Zimmermann and Dostert under multipath can predict a better performance of about 5dB better than the actual predicted by Generalized TL theory. It is therefore suggested for a realistic BPLC system design and analyses the model based on generalized TL theory be used.

Keywords: Broadband Power line Channel Models, loadimpedance, Branched network.

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7665 A Comparison of Marginal and Joint Generalized Quasi-likelihood Estimating Equations Based On the Com-Poisson GLM: Application to Car Breakdowns Data

Authors: N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply and compare two generalized estimating equation approaches to the analysis of car breakdowns data in Mauritius. Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observation as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use the two types of quasi-likelihood estimation approaches to estimate the parameters of the model: marginal and joint generalized quasi-likelihood estimating equation approaches. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be around 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling underdispersed count responses recorded in this study.

Keywords: Breakdowns, under-dispersion, com-poisson, generalized linear model, marginal quasi-likelihood estimation, joint quasi-likelihood estimation.

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7664 Risk Factors for Defective Autoparts Products Using Bayesian Method in Poisson Generalized Linear Mixed Model

Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

Abstract:

This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: Defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Risk factors.

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7663 Weyl Type Theorem and the Fuglede Property

Authors: M. H. M. Rashid

Abstract:

Given H a Hilbert space and B(H) the algebra of bounded linear operator in H, let δAB denote the generalized derivation defined by A and B. The main objective of this article is to study Weyl type theorems for generalized derivation for (A,B) satisfying a couple of Fuglede.

Keywords: Fuglede Property, Weyl’s theorem, generalized derivation, Aluthge Transformation.

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7662 Application of Generalized Autoregressive Score Model to Stock Returns

Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

Abstract:

The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score model, stock returns, time-varying.

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