Search results for: uncertain and correlated demand

Authors: Mustafa Jahanara, Mohsen Shahbakhti

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The current study examined the relationship between happiness, life satisfaction, self-efficacy, coping strategies and perceived stress among high school students, Eshtehard city, Alboez province, Iran. One hundred and sixty-seven high school students were asked to complete the Subjective Happiness scale (SHS), The Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), General Self-efficacy (GSE), the Brief COPE, and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). Results revealed a positive correlation between happiness with life satisfaction, self-efficacy, problem-focused coping, adopted coping and it was a negative correlation with stress. Self-efficacy is a significant positive correlated with life satisfaction, problem-focused coping and it is negative correlated with stress. However, the findings suggest that self-efficacy and problem-focused coping could influence on happiness and life satisfaction.

Keywords: happiness, life satisfaction, self-efficacy, perceived stress and coping strategies

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Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Hsien Hwa Kuo, Lin Wen Chun, Lin Wen Chun, Hsien Wen Kuo

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Objective: Nurses represent an important occupational group frequently affected by wrist musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) due to a heavy workload, working shifts, poor posture, giving shots, making beds, lifting patients, bending their waist and insufficient rest time every day. However, lack of research reported nurses whether workload in household correlated with the severity of WMSDs. Methods: 550 nurses from a hospital in Taoyuan were interviewed using a modified standardized Nordic Musculoskeletal (NMQ) questionnaire including the demographic information, workplace condition and nine body parts of musculoskeletal disorders. Results: 17.9% and 23.9% of severity and symptoms in WMSDs among nurses with children were significant higher than among nurses without children (1​2.4% and 15.9%). Based on multiple logistic regression models adjusted for age, work duration, job title and body mass index (BMI), we found that heavy workload in hospital had higher odds ratio (OR) of the severity and symptoms of WMSD among nurses with children (OR= 8.67 and OR= 4.30, p<0.05) compared to nurses without children (OR= 1.94 and OR= 1.70). Conclusion: The severity and symptoms of WMSDs among nurses significantly correlated with workload in hospital among nurses with children. If women are at greater risk because of the combination of their work and family demands, synergistic effect of WMSDs was found among nurses. Comment: Women's domestic work, especially once they become mothers, they invest more time and energy caring for children, helping others, and doing housework. Thus domestic work, per se, may be a risk factor for wrist musculoskeletal problems, and, more importantly, it may constrain women's ability to protect themselves from the effects of their paid work. If nurses with more domestic work periodically make efforts to physical activity or modify inappropriate posture, their WMSDs symptoms will be alleviated.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, nurse, NMQ, WMSDs

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Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

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As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

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Authors: Raquel P. F. Guiné, Susana R. Matos, Daniela V. T. A. Costa, Fernando J. Gonçalves

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Because blueberries are worldwide recognized as a good source of beneficial components, their consumption has increased in the past decades, and so have the scientific works about their properties. Hence this work was undertaken to evaluate the effect of some production and conservation factors on the properties of blueberries from cultivar Bluecrop. The physical and chemical analyses were done according to established methodologies and then all data was treated using software SPSS for assessment of the possible differences among the factors investigated and/or the correlations between the variables at study. The results showed that location of production influenced some of the berries properties (caliber, sugars, antioxidant activity, color and texture) and that the age of the bushes was correlated with moisture, sugars and acidity, as well as lightness. On the other hand, altitude of the farm only was correlated to sugar content. With regards to conservation, it influenced only anthocyanins content and DPPH antioxidant activity. Finally, the type of extract and the order of extraction had a pronounced influence on all the phnolic properties evaluated.

Keywords: Antioxidant activity, blueberry, conservation, geographical origin, phenolic compounds, statistical analysis

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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Authors: Lu Ren, You-Liang Fang, Yan-Gang Zhao

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In recent years, the application of BIM (Building Information Modelling) to construction schedule plan has been the focus of more and more researchers. In order to assess the reasonable level of the BIM-based construction schedule plan, that is whether the schedule can be completed on time, some researchers have introduced reliability theory to evaluate. In the process of evaluation, the uncertain factors affecting the construction schedule plan are regarded as random variables, and probability distributions of the random variables are assumed to be normal distribution, which is determined using two parameters evaluated from the mean and standard deviation of statistical data. However, in practical engineering, most of the uncertain influence factors are not normal random variables. So the evaluation results of the construction schedule plan will be unreasonable under the assumption that probability distributions of random variables submitted to the normal distribution. Therefore, in order to get a more reasonable evaluation result, it is necessary to describe the distribution of random variables more comprehensively. For this purpose, cubic normal distribution is introduced in this paper to describe the distribution of arbitrary random variables, which is determined by the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). In this paper, building the BIM model firstly according to the design messages of the structure and making the construction schedule plan based on BIM, then the cubic normal distribution is used to describe the distribution of the random variables due to the collecting statistical data of the random factors influencing construction schedule plan. Next the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM can be carried out more reasonably. Finally, the more accurate evaluation results can be given providing reference for the implementation of the actual construction schedule plan. In the last part of this paper, the more efficiency and accuracy of the proposed methodology for the reliability analysis of the construction schedule plan based on BIM are conducted through practical engineering case.

Keywords: BIM, construction schedule plan, cubic normal distribution, reliability analysis

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Authors: Olatunde Sunday Eludoyin, Charles Obiechina Olisa

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The study examined the spatial interactions between earthworm abundance (EA) and tree growth characteristics in ecological belts of Western Niger Delta, Nigeria. Eight 20m x 20m quadrat were delimited in the natural vegetation in each of the rainforest (RF), mangrove (M), fresh water swamp (FWS), and guinea savanna (GS) ecological belts to gather data about the tree species (TS) characteristics which included individual number of tree species (IN), diversity (Di), density (De) and richness (Ri). Three quadrats of 1m x 1m were delineated in each of the 20m x 20m quadrats to collect earthworm species the topsoil (0-15cm), and subsoil (15-30cm) and were taken to laboratory for further analysis. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. Findings showed that a total of 19 earthworm species was found, with 58.5% individual species recorded in the topsoil and 41.5% recorded in the subsoil. The total population ofEudriliuseugeniae was predominantly highest in both topsoil (38.4%) and subsoil (27.1%). The total population of individual species of earthworm was least in GS in the topsoil (11.9%) and subsoil (8.4%). A total of 40 different species of TS was recorded, of which 55.5% were recorded in FWS, while RF was significantly highest in the species diversity(0.5971). Regression analysis revealed that Ri, IN, DBH, Di, and De of trees explained 65.9% of the variability of EA in the topsoil, while 46.9 % of the variability of earthworm abundance was explained by the floristic parameters in the subsoil.Similarly, correlation statistics revealed that in the topsoil, EA is positively and significantly correlated with Ri (r=0.35; p<0.05), IN (r=0.523; p<0.05) and De (r=0.469; p<0.05) while DBH was negatively and significantly correlated with earthworm abundance (r=-0.437; p<0.05). In the subsoil, only Ri and DBH correlated significantly with EA. The study concluded that EA in the study locations was highly influenced by tree growth species especially Ri, IN, DBH, Di, and De. The study recommended that the TSabundance should be improved in the study locations to ensure the survival of earthworms for ecosystem functions.

Keywords: interactions, earthworm abundance, tree growth, ecological zones, western niger delta

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Authors: Reza Salehi, Peter L. Dold, Yves Comeau

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The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of a total of 6 operating parameters including pH (X1), temperature (X2), stirring speed (X3), chemical oxygen demand (COD) (X4), volatile suspended solids (VSS) (X5) and time (X6) on anaerobic orthophosphate release from enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) sludge. An 8-run Plackett Burman design was applied and the statistical analysis of the experimental data was performed using Minitab16.2.4 software package. The Analysis of variance (ANOVA) results revealed that temperature, COD, VSS and time had a significant effect with p-values of less than 0.05 whereas pH and stirring speed were identified as non-significant parameters, but influenced orthophosphate release from the EBPR sludge. The mathematic expression obtained by the first-order multiple linear regression model between orthophosphate release from the EBPR sludge (Y) and the operating parameters (X1-X6) was Y=18.59+1.16X1-3.11X2-0.81X3+3.79X4+9.89X5+4.01X6. The model p-value and coefficient of determination (R2) value were 0.026 and of 99.87%, respectively, which indicates the model is significant and the predicted values of orthophosphate release from the EBPR sludge have been excellently correlated with the observed values.

Keywords: anaerobic, operating parameters, orthophosphate release, Plackett-Burman design

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Authors: Y. Ghiassi-Farrokhfal

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The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing worldwide. Replacing gas fueled cars with EVs reduces carbon emission. However, the extensive energy consumption of EVs stresses the energy systems, requiring non-green sources of energy (such as gas turbines) to compensate for the new energy demand caused by EVs in the energy systems. To make EVs even a greener solution for the future energy systems, new EV charging stations are equipped with solar PV panels and batteries. This will help serve the energy demand of EVs through the green energy of solar panels. To ensure energy availability, solar panels are combined with batteries. The energy surplus at any point is stored in batteries and is used when there is not enough solar energy to serve the demand. While EV charging stations equipped with solar panels and batteries are green and ecologically optimal, they might not be financially viable solutions, due to battery prices. To make the system viable, we should size the battery economically and operate the system optimally. This is, in general, a challenging problem because of the stochastic nature of the EV arrivals at the charging station, the available solar energy, and the battery operating system. In this work, we provide a mathematical model for this problem and we compute the return on investment (ROI) of such a system, which is designed to be ecologically and financially optimal. We also quantify the minimum required investment in terms of battery and solar panels along with the operating strategy to ensure that a charging station has enough energy to serve its EV demand at any time.

Keywords: solar energy, battery storage, electric vehicle, charging stations

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Authors: Oludele A. Akinboade

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The paper discusses cultural aspects of tax compliance of medium size companies (MEs) in South Africa to enhance tax compliance. A survey of 641 companies in eight provinces was made. Racial identities of ME owners are not significant in explaining differences in tax registration compliance. Black ownership of MEs is negatively and highly significantly correlated with pay as you earn compliance. The opposite is found in favour of Asian ME owners. White ownership of MEs is negative and weakly (10%) significantly correlated with company income tax compliance while the opposite is found in favour of Asian ownership. Race is negative and highly significant in explaining White owned MEs value added tax compliance behaviour. The opposite is found in favour of Asian ME owners. Black ownership of MEs is negatively and weakly significantly(10%) associated with timely submission of tax returns.

Keywords: tax compliance, cultural diversity, medium size companies, South Africa

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Authors: Choki, Supatchai Boonpratham, Suwannee Luppanapornlarp

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The objective of this study was to find a correlation between cephalometric measurements and visual perception of facial profile in skeletal type II patients. In this study, 250 lateral cephalograms of female patients from age, 20 to 22 years were analyzed. The profile outlines of all the samples were hand traced and transformed into silhouettes by the principal investigator. Profile ratings were done by 9 orthodontists on Visual Analogue Scale from score one to ten (increasing level of convexity). 37 hard issue and soft tissue cephalometric measurements were analyzed by the principal investigator. All the measurements were repeated after 2 weeks interval for error assessment. At last, the rankings of visual perceptions were correlated with cephalometric measurements using Spearman correlation coefficient (P < 0.05). The results show that the increase in facial convexity was correlated with higher values of ANB (A point, nasion and B point), AF-BF (distance from A point to B point in mm), L1-NB (distance from lower incisor to NB line in mm), anterior maxillary alveolar height, posterior maxillary alveolar height, overjet, H angle hard tissue, H angle soft tissue and lower lip to E plane (absolute correlation values from 0.277 to 0.711). In contrast, the increase in facial convexity was correlated with lower values of Pg. to N perpendicular and Pg. to NB (mm) (absolute correlation value -0.302 and -0.294 respectively). From the soft tissue measurements, H angles had a higher correlation with visual perception than facial contour angle, nasolabial angle, and lower lip to E plane. In conclusion, the findings of this study indicated that the correlation of cephalometric measurements with visual perception was less than expected. Only 29% of cephalometric measurements had a significant correlation with visual perception. Therefore, diagnosis based solely on cephalometric analysis can result in failure to meet the patient’s esthetic expectation.

Keywords: cephalometric measurements, facial profile, skeletal type II, visual perception

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Endang Jati Mat Sahid

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For the past few decades, the Malaysian economy has expanded at an impressive pace, whilst, the Malaysian population has registered a relatively high growth rate. These factors had driven the growth of final energy demand. The ballooning energy demand coupled with the country’s limited indigenous energy resources have resulted in an increased of the country’s net import. Therefore, acknowledging the precarious position of the country’s energy self-sufficiency, this study has identified three main concerns regarding energy security, namely; over-dependence on fossil fuel, increasing energy import dependency, and increasing energy consumption per capita. This paper discusses the recent energy demand and supply trends, highlights the policies that are affecting energy security in Malaysia and suggests strategic options towards achieving energy security. The paper suggested that diversifying energy sources, reducing carbon content of energy, efficient utilization of energy and facilitating low-carbon industries could further enhance the effectiveness of the measures as the introduction of policies and initiatives will be more holistic.

Keywords: electricity, energy policy, energy security, Malaysia

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Authors: Woogul Lee, Johnmarshall Reeve

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Learners’ perceived autonomy predicts learners’ interest, engagement, and learning. To understand these processes, we conducted an fMRI experiment. In this experiment, participants saw the national flag and were asked to rate how much they freely wanted to learn about that particular national flag. The participants then learned the characteristics of the national flag. Results showed that (1) the degree of participants’ perceived autonomy was positively correlated with the degree of insula activity, (2) participants’ early-trial insula activity predicted corresponding late-trial dorsolateral prefrontal cortex activity, and (3) the degree of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex activity was positively correlated with the degree of participants’ learning about the characteristics of the national flag. Results suggest that learners’ perceived autonomy predicts learning through the mediation of insula activity associated with intrinsic satisfaction and 'pure self' processes.

Keywords: insular cortex, autonomy, self-determination, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex

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Authors: Mehak Nagpal, T. S. Sathyanarayan Rao

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Background: Sexual functioning is a neglected aspect of health in women with diabetes, though it contributes greatly towards quality of life and feeling of wellbeing. Also women with DM are at higher risk than men of developing sexual dysfunction and depression. Materials and Methods: Cross-sectional comparison study. Sample size: 100 previously diagnosed type 2DM patients attending Outpatient Diabetic Clinic at Medicine department JSS Hospital Mysore; aged 20-65 years and 60 normal healthy female subjects for Control group. Data was collected with ethical approval over a period of 2 years. Tools Used: 1) Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD – 17 item) 2) Female Sexual Functioning Index (FSFI) 3) Arizona Sexual Experience Scale (ASEX-F) for female-for screening. 4) The Appraisal of Diabetes Scale (ADS). Results: Statistically significant differences were observed in prevalence rate and severity of depression between diabetic group (45% vs 11% syndromal depression) and controls. Depression scores correlated significantly with glycaemic control, adherence to treatment, BMI and the cognitive appraisal of diabetes. There was significantly greater impairment in the sexual functioning of women with type 2 diabetes mellitus as compared to controls; both prevalence (62% vs 38.3%) and severity (p value < 0.01). Arousal (74.2% vs 53.3%), Desire (76.3% vs 50%) and Satisfaction (76.7% vs 63.7%) were most affected and 64.5% were affected in 2 or more domains. A negative illness appraisal on ADS correlated significantly with poor glycaemic control, higher rates of depression and also more severe female sexual dysfunction (p value < 0.05). Conclusion: Diabetes specific factors that correlated significantly with FSD in this study included the psychological appraisal of diabetes, duration of diabetes, presence of complications and BMI.

Keywords: depression, female sexual dysfunction, India, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Saad A. Aljlil

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Adsorption of cobalt ions on quartz and illite and calcite from waste water was investigated. The effect of pH on the adsorption of cobalt ions was studied. The maximum capacities of cobalt ions of the three adsorbents increase with increasing cobalt solution temperature. The maximum capacities were (4.66) mg/g for quartz, (3.94) mg/g for illite, and (3.44) mg/g for calcite. The enthalpy, Gibbs free energy, and entropy for adsorption of cobalt ions on the three adsorbents were calculated. It was found that the adsorption process of the cobalt ions of the adsorbent was an endothermic process. consequently increasing the temperature causes the increase of the cobalt ions adsorption of the adsorbents. Therefore, the adsorption process is preferred at high temperature levels. The equilibrium adsorption data were correlated using Langmuir model, Freundlich model. The experimental data of cobalt ions of the adsorbents correlated well with Freundlich model.

Keywords: adsorption, Langmuir, Freundlich, quartz, illite, calcite, waste water

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Authors: Masoud Rabbani, Majede Smizadeh, Hamed Farrokhi-Asl

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We study jointly determining prices and production in a multiple period horizon under a general non-stationary stochastic demand with continuous prices. In some periods we need to increase capacity of production to satisfy demand. This paper presents a model to aid multi-period production capacity planning by quantifying the trade-off between product quality and production cost. The product quality is estimated as the statistical variation from the target performances obtained from the output tolerances of the production machines that manufacture the components. We consider different tolerance for different machines that use to increase capacity. The production cost is estimated as the total cost of owning and operating a production facility during the planning horizon.so capacity planning has cost that impact on price. Pricing products often turns out to be difficult to measure them because customers have a reservation price to pay that impact on price and demand. We decide to determine prices and production for periods after enhance capacity and consider reservation price to determine price. First we use an algorithm base on fuzzy set of the optimal objective function values to determine capacity planning by determine maximize interval from upper bound in minimum objectives and define weight for objectives. Then we try to determine inventory and pricing policies. We can use a lemma to solve a problem in MATLAB and find exact answer.

Keywords: price policy, inventory policy, capacity planning, product quality, epsilon -constraint

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Authors: Vanessa Kummer, Maik Meusel

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Real estate demand estimates are typically derived from transaction data. However, in regions with excess demand, transactions are driven by supply and therefore do not indicate what people are actually looking for. To estimate the demand for housing in Switzerland, search subscriptions from all important Swiss real estate platforms are used. These data do, however, suffer from missing information—for example, many users do not specify how many rooms they would like or what price they would be willing to pay. In economic analyses, it is often the case that only complete data is used. Usually, however, the proportion of complete data is rather small which leads to most information being neglected. Also, the data might have a strong distortion if it is complete. In addition, the reason that data is missing might itself also contain information, which is however ignored with that approach. An interesting issue is, therefore, if for economic analyses such as the one at hand, there is an added value by using the whole data set with the imputed missing values compared to using the usually small percentage of complete data (baseline). Also, it is interesting to see how different algorithms affect that result. The imputation of the missing data is done using unsupervised learning. Out of the numerous unsupervised learning approaches, the most common ones, such as clustering, principal component analysis, or neural networks techniques are applied. By training the model iteratively on the imputed data and, thereby, including the information of all data into the model, the distortion of the first training set—the complete data—vanishes. In a next step, the performances of the algorithms are measured. This is done by randomly creating missing values in subsets of the data, estimating those values with the relevant algorithms and several parameter combinations, and comparing the estimates to the actual data. After having found the optimal parameter set for each algorithm, the missing values are being imputed. Using the resulting data sets, the next step is to estimate the willingness to pay for real estate. This is done by fitting price distributions for real estate properties with certain characteristics, such as the region or the number of rooms. Based on these distributions, survival functions are computed to obtain the functional relationship between characteristics and selling probabilities. Comparing the survival functions shows that estimates which are based on imputed data sets do not differ significantly from each other; however, the demand estimate that is derived from the baseline data does. This indicates that the baseline data set does not include all available information and is therefore not representative for the entire sample. Also, demand estimates derived from the whole data set are much more accurate than the baseline estimation. Thus, in order to obtain optimal results, it is important to make use of all available data, even though it involves additional procedures such as data imputation.

Keywords: demand estimate, missing-data imputation, real estate, unsupervised learning

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Authors: Greeshma Sharma, Sushil Chandra, Vijander Singh, Alok Prakash Mittal

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Navigational ability requires spatial representation, planning, and memory. It covers three interdependent domains, i.e. cognitive and perceptual factors, neural information processing, and variability in brain microstructure. Many attempts have been made to see the role of spatial representation in the navigational ability, and the individual differences have been identified in the neural substrate. But, there is also a need to address the influence of planning, memory on navigational ability. The present study aims to evaluate relations of aforementioned factors in the navigational ability. Total 30 participants volunteered in the study of a virtual shopping complex and subsequently were classified into good and bad navigators based on their performances. The result showed that planning ability was the most correlated factor for the navigational ability and also the discriminating factor between the good and bad navigators. There was also found the correlations between spatial memory recall and navigational ability. However, non-verbal episodic memory and spatial memory recall were also found to be correlated with the learning variable. This study attempts to identify differences between people with more and less navigational ability on the basis of planning and memory.

Keywords: memory, planning navigational ability, virtual reality

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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World GHG emissions should be reduced 50% by 2050 compared with 1990 level. CO2 emission reduction from steel sector, an energy-intensive sector, is essential. To estimate CO2 emission from steel sector in the world, estimation of steel production is required. The world steel production by process is estimated during the period of 2005-2050. The world is divided into aggregated 35 regions. For a steel making process, two kinds of processes are considered; basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF). Steel production by process in each region is decided based on a current production capacity, supply-demand balance of steel and scrap, technology innovation of steel making, steel consumption projection, and goods trade. World steel production under moderate countermeasure scenario in 2050 increases by 1.3 times compared with that in 2012. When domestic scrap recycling is promoted, steel production in developed regions increases about 1.5 times. The share in developed regions changes from 34 %(2012) to about 40%(2050). This is because developed regions are main suppliers of scrap. 48-57% of world steel production is produced by EAF. Under the scenario which thinks much of supply-demand balance of steel, steel production in developing regions increases is 1.4 times and is larger than that in developed regions. The share in developing regions, however, is not so different from current level. The increase in steel production by EAF is the largest under the scenario in which supply-demand balance of steel is an important factor. The share reaches 65%.

Keywords: global steel production, production distribution scenario, steel making process, supply-demand balance

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Authors: Clive L. Morley

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Gravity models and panel data modelling of tourism flows are receiving renewed attention, after decades of general neglect. Such models have quite different underpinnings from conventional demand models derived from micro-economic theory. They operate at a different level of data and with different theoretical bases. These differences have important consequences for the interpretation of the results and their policy and managerial implications. This review compares and contrasts the two model forms, clarifying the distinguishing features and the estimation requirements of each. In general, gravity models are not recommended for use to address specific management and marketing purposes.

Keywords: gravity models, micro-economics, demand models, marketing

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine Corbly, Ifat Levy

Abstract:

Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design, the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on both expected value and variance. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across subjects. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. This novel double dissociation indicates that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, ambiguity, conflict, fMRI

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Authors: A. Mondaca, E. Mendoza, D. Jackson-Maldonado, A. García-Obregón

Abstract:

Deaf signers usually show lower scores in Auditory Working Memory (AWM) tasks and higher scores in Visual Working Memory (VWM) tasks than their hearing pairs. Further, Working Memory has been correlated with reading abilities and vocabulary in Deaf and Hearing individuals. The aim of the present study is to compare the performance of Mexican Deaf signers and hearing adults in VWM, reading and Vocabulary tasks and observe if the latter are correlated to the former. 15 Mexican Deaf signers were assessed using the Corsi block test for VWM, four different subtests of PROLEC (Batería de Evaluación de los Procesos Lectores) for reading abilities, and the LexTale in its Spanish version for vocabulary. T-tests show significant differences between groups for VWM and Vocabulary but not for all the PROLEC subtests. A significant Pearson correlation was found between VWM and Vocabulary but not between VWM and reading abilities. This work is part of a larger research study and results are not yet conclusive. A discussion about the use of PROLEC as a tool to explore reading abilities in a Deaf population is included.

Keywords: deaf signers, visual working memory, reading, Mexican sign language

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Authors: M. Rose Ntsewa, P. E. Dlamini, V. E. Mbanjwa, R. Chauke

Abstract:

Land-use change from undisturbed forest to tea plantation may lead to accumulation or loss of soil organic carbon (SOC). So far, the factors controlling the vertical distribution of SOC under the long-term establishment of tea plantation remain poorly understood, especially in oxisols. In this study, we quantified the vertical distribution of SOC under tea plantation compared to adjacent undisturbed forest Oxisols sited at different topographic positions and also determined controlling edaphic factors. SOC was greater in the 30-year-old tea plantation compared to undisturbed forest oxisols and declined with depth across all topographic positions. Most of the SOC was found in the downslope position due to erosion and deposition. In the topsoil, SOC was positively correlated with heavy metals; manganese (r=0.62-0.83; P<0.05) and copper (r=0.45-0.69), effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) (r=0.72) and mean weight diameter (MWD) (r=0.72-0.73), while in the subsoil SOC was positively correlated with copper (r=0.89-0.92) and zinc (r=0.86), ECEC (r=0.56-0.69) and MWD (r=0.48). These relationships suggest that SOC in the tea plantation, oxisols is chemically stabilized via complexation with heavy metals, and physically stabilized by soil aggregates.

Keywords: oxisols, tea plantation, topography, undisturbed forest

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Authors: Rajeshwar S. Matche, Subhash V. Pawde, Suraj P, Sachin R. Chaudhari

Abstract:

Time Temperature Indicator’s (TTI) are trending approach in a food packaging that will be insightful to have safe and hygienic food products. Currently, available TTI in the market are mostly a product specific and sometime even difficult to handle especially in supply chain as these are pre-activated and require specific storage conditions. In the present study, research focus is on the development of a cost-effective lactic acid based TTI that can work over a wide range of temperature and can be activated at time of packaging or on demand. The correlation between activation energies of colour change of the developed indicator and packed pasteurized milk spoilage with respect to time and temperature was established. Developed lactic acid based TTI strips have range of activation energy from 10.13 to 24.20 KJ/mol. We found that the developed TTI strip’s with activation energy 12.42, and 14.41KJ/mol can be correlated with spoilage activation energy of packed pasteurized milk which was 25.71 KJ/mol with factor of 2 at storage temperature 4°C. The implementation of these TTI on packed pasteurized milk allow us see visual colour change during the storage and can be fruitful to monitoring quality of the milk and understand its freshness especially in a cold supply chain, viz distributor and road vendor etc.

Keywords: pasteurised packed milk, time temperature indicator, spoilage, freshness

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Authors: Edi Artono, Budi Tamtomo, Gema Wahyudi Purnama

Abstract:

The world energy demand increasing extreamly high time by time, including domestic demand. That is impossible to avoid because energy a country demand proportional to surge in the number of residents, economic growth and addition of industrial sector. Domestic Oil and gas conventional reserves depleted naturally while production outcome from reservoir also depleted time to time. In the other hand, new reserve did not discover significantly to replace it all. Many people are investigating to looking for new alternative energy to answer the challenge. There are several option to solve energy fossil needed problem using Unconventional Hydrocarbon. There are four aspects to consider as a management reference in order that Unconventional Hydrocarbon business can work properly, divided to: 1. Legal aspect, 2. Environmental aspect, 3. Technical aspect and 4. Economy aspect. The economic aspect as the key to whether or not a project can be implemented or not in Oil and Gas business scheme, so do Unconventional Hydorcarbon business scheme. The support of regulation are needed to buttress Unconventional Hydorcarbon business grow up and make benefits contribute to Government.

Keywords: alternative energy, unconventional hydrocarbon, regulation support, management strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Lobna Cherif, Valerie Wood

Abstract:

The importance of both character and resilience for military members has been emphasized at the highest levels of military leadership. Initial research suggests that the presence of character strengths might be relevant in predicting success and well-being for some military populations (e.g., recruits). In this presentation, we will first review our research investigating the perceived importance of character strengths for Canadian military cadet (N = 134) success, the top strengths endorsed by cadets, and, in a subset of cadets (n = 94), the relationships among core strengths and resilience. Participants first completed a survey comprised of a resilience measure and demographic items, then one month later completed a Values in Action (VIA) character strengths profile, questions related to character strengths (their personal top-five character strengths, and strengths they believed were important for military-related stressors and leadership, academic success, resilience, and completion of the military challenge). Findings indicated that military cadets consider (among others), perseverance, judgment, and teamwork to be most critical for bouncing back from stressors. However, the most frequently endorsed strengths that characterized cadets were bravery, honesty, and perseverance. Finally, perseverance, bravery, and humor were positively correlated with cadet resilience, while endorsement of love was negatively correlated with resilience.

Keywords: character strengths, leadership, positive psychology, resilience

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Authors: Sophia Francesca D. Lu

Abstract:

This research tried to produce evidence that formal institutions, such as electoral and internal party quotas, can advance women’s active roles in the public sphere using the cases of four European countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. The quantitative dataset was provided by the University of Chicago and the Inter-University Consortium of Political and Social Research based on a two-year study (2008-2010) of political parties. Belgium engages in constitutionally mandated electoral quotas. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, on the other hand, have internal party quotas, which are voluntarily adopted by political parties. In analyzing each country’s chi-square and Pearson’s r correlation, Belgium, having an electoral quota, is the only country that was analyzed for electoral quotas. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands’ internal voluntary party quotas were correlated with women’s descriptive representations. Using chi-square analysis, this study showed that the presence of electoral quotas is correlated with an increase in the percentage of women in decision-making bodies as well as with an increase in the percentage of women in decision-making bodies. Likewise, using correlational analysis, a higher number of political parties employing internal party voluntary quotas is correlated with an increase in the percentage of women occupying seats in parliament as well as an increase in the percentage of women nominees in electoral lists of political parties. In conclusion, gender quotas, such as electoral quotas or internal party quotas, are an effective policy tool for greater women’s representation in political bodies. Political parties and governments should opt to have gender quotas, whether electoral or internal party quotas, to address the underrepresentation of women in parliament, decision-making bodies, and policy-formulation.

Keywords: electoral quota, Europe, formal institutions, institutional feminism, internal party quota, women’s electoral participation

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Authors: Gianni Blasi, Daniele Perrone, Maria Antonietta Aiello

Abstract:

The seismic vulnerability of non-structural components is nowadays recognized to be a key issue in performance-based earthquake engineering. Recent loss estimation studies, as well as the damage observed during past earthquakes, evidenced how non-structural damage represents the highest rate of economic loss in a building and can be in many cases crucial in a life-safety view during the post-earthquake emergency. The procedures developed to evaluate the seismic demand on non-structural components have been constantly improved and recent studies demonstrated how the existing formulations provided by main Standards generally ignore features which have a sensible influence on the definition of the seismic acceleration/displacements subjecting non-structural components. Since the influence of the infills on the dynamic behaviour of RC structures has already been evidenced by many authors, it is worth to be noted that the evaluation of the seismic demand on non-structural components should consider the presence of the infills as well as their mechanical properties. This study focuses on the evaluation of time-history floor acceleration in RC buildings; which is a useful mean to perform seismic vulnerability analyses of non-structural components through the well-known cascade method. Dynamic analyses are performed on an 8-storey RC frame, taking into account the presence of the infills; the influence of the elastic modulus of the panel on the results is investigated as well as the presence of openings. Floor accelerations obtained from the analyses are used to evaluate the floor response spectra, in order to define the demand on non-structural components depending on the properties of the infills. Finally, the results are compared with formulations provided by main International Standards, in order to assess the accuracy and eventually define the improvements required according to the results of the present research work.

Keywords: floor spectra, infilled RC frames, non-structural components, seismic demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 307