Search results for: twelve major cardiovascular events
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9905

Search results for: twelve major cardiovascular events

9665 Wrong Site Surgery Should Not Occur In This Day And Age!

Authors: C. Kuoh, C. Lucas, T. Lopes, I. Mechie, J. Yoong, W. Yoong

Abstract:

For all surgeons, there is one preventable but still highly occurring complication – wrong site surgeries. They can have potentially catastrophic, irreversible, or even fatal consequences on patients. With the exponential development of microsurgery and the use of advanced technological tools, the consequences of operating on the wrong side, anatomical part, or even person is seen as the most visible and destructive of all surgical errors and perhaps the error that is dreaded by most clinicians as it threatens their licenses and arouses feelings of guilt. Despite the implementation of the WHO surgical safety checklist more than a decade ago, the incidence of wrong-site surgeries remains relatively high, leading to tremendous physical and psychological repercussions for the clinicians involved, as well as a financial burden for the healthcare institution. In this presentation, the authors explore various factors which can lead to wrong site surgery – a combination of environmental and human factors and evaluate their impact amongst patients, practitioners, their families, and the medical industry. Major contributing factors to these “never events” include deviations from checklists, excessive workload, and poor communication. Two real-life cases are discussed, and systems that can be implemented to prevent these errors are highlighted alongside lessons learnt from other industries. The authors suggest that reinforcing speaking-up, implementing medical professional trainings, and higher patient’s involvements can potentially improve safety in surgeries and electrosurgeries.

Keywords: wrong side surgery, never events, checklist, workload, communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
9664 Enhancing Flood Modeling: Unveiling the Role of Hazard Parameters in Building Vulnerability

Authors: Mohammad Shoraka, Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Karthik Ramanathan

Abstract:

Following the devastating summer 2021 floods in Germany, catastrophe modelers realized that hazard parameters, such as flow velocity, flood duration, and debris flow, play a significant role in capturing the overall damage potential of such events. Accounting for the location-specific static depth as the only hazard intensity metric may lead to a substantial underestimation of the vulnerability of building stock and, eventually, the loss potential of such catastrophic events. As the flow velocity increases, the hydrodynamic forces acting on various building components are amplified. Longer flood duration leads to water permeating porous components, incurring additional cleanup costs that contribute to an overall increase in damage. Debris flow possesses the power to erode extensive sections of buildings, thus substantially augmenting the extent of losses. This paper introduces four flow velocity classes, ranging from no flow velocity to major velocity, along with two flood duration classes: short and long, in estimating the vulnerability of the building stock. Additionally, the study examines the impact of the presence of debris flow and its role in exacerbating flood damage. The paper delves into the effects of each of these parameters on building component damageability and their collective impact on the overall building vulnerability.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, building vulnerability, hazard parameters, component damage function

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9663 Factors Affecting At-Grade Railway Level Crossing Accidents in Bangladesh

Authors: Armana Huq

Abstract:

Railway networks have a significant role in the economy of any country. Similar to other transportation modes, many lives suffer from fatalities or injuries caused by accidents related to the railway. Railway accidents are not as common as roadway accidents yet they are more devastating and damaging than other roadway accidents. Despite that, issues related to railway accidents are not taken into consideration with significant attention as a major threat because of their less frequency compared to other accident categories perhaps. However, the Federal Railroad Administration reported nearly twelve thousand train accidents related to the railroad in the year 2014, resulting in more than eight hundred fatalities and thousands of injuries in the United States alone of which nearly one third fatalities resulted from railway crossing accidents. From an analysis of railway accident data of six years (2005-2010), it has been revealed that 344 numbers of the collision were occurred resulting 200 people dead and 443 people injured in Bangladesh. This paper includes a comprehensive overview of the railway safety situation in Bangladesh from 1998 to 2015. Each year on average, eight fatalities are reported in at-grade level crossings due to railway accidents in Bangladesh. In this paper, the number of railway accidents that occurred in Bangladesh has been presented and a fatality rate of 58.62% has been estimated as the percentage of total at-grade railway level crossing accidents. For this study, analysis of railway accidents in Bangladesh for the period 1998 to 2015 was obtained from the police reported accident database using MAAP (Microcomputer Accident Analysis Package). Investigation of the major contributing factors to the railway accidents has been performed using the Multinomial Logit model. Furthermore, hotspot analysis has been conducted using ArcGIS. Eventually, some suggestions have been provided to mitigate those accidents.

Keywords: safety, human factors, multinomial logit model, railway

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9662 Remediation of Oil and Gas Exploration and Production (O&G E&P) Wastes Using Soil-Poultry Dropping Amendment

Authors: Ofonime U. M. John, Justina I. R. Udotong, Victor O. Nwaugo, Ime R. Udotong

Abstract:

Oily wastes from oil and gas exploration and production (O&G E&P) activities were remediated for twelve weeks using Soil-Poultry dropping amendment. Culture-dependent microbiological, chemical and enzymatic techniques were employed to assess the efficacy of remediation process. Microbiological activities of the remediated wastes showed increased hydrocarbonoclastic microbial populations with increased remediation time; 2.7±0.1 x 105cfu/g to 8.3 ± 0.04 x106cfu/g for hydrocarbon utilizing bacteria, 1.7 ± 0.2 x103cfu/g to 6.0 ± 0.01 x 104cfu/g for hydrocarbon utilizing fungi and 2.2 ± 0.1 x 102cfu/g to 6.7 ± 0.1 x 103cfu/g for hydrocarbon utilizing actinomycetes. Bacteria associated with the remediated wastes after the remediation period included the genera Bacillus, Psuedomonas, Beijerinckia, Acinetobacter, Alcaligenes and Serratia. Fungal isolates included species of Penicillium, Aspergillus and Cladosporium, while the Actinomycetes included species of Rhodococcus, Nocardia and Streptomyces. Slight fluctuations in pH values between 6.5± 0.2 and 7.1 ± 0.08 were recorded throughout the process, while total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) content decreased from 89, 900 ± 0.03mg/kg to 425 ± 0.1 mg/kg after twelve weeks of remediation. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels decreased with increased remediation time; naphthalene, flourene, pheneanthrene, anthracene, pyrene, chrysene and benzo(b)flouranthene showed decreased values < 0.01 after twelve weeks of remediation. Enzyme activities revealed increased dehydrogenase and urease activities with increased remediation time and decreased phenol oxidase activity with increased remediation period. There was a positive linear correlation between densities of hydrocarbonoclastic microbes and dehydrogenase activity. On the contrary, phenol oxidase and urease activities showed negative correlation with microbial population. Results of this study confirmed that remediation of oily wastes using soil-poultry dropping amendment can result in eco-friendly O&G E&P wastes. It also indicates that urease and phenol oxidase activities can be reliable indices/tools to monitor PAH levels and rates of petroleum hydrocarbon degradation.

Keywords: dehydrogenase activity, oily wastes, remediation, soil-poultry dropping amendment

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9661 Effect of Sanitary-Environmental Conditions of Diabetic Hypertension Incidence of Displaced Persons

Authors: Radmila Maksimovic, Sonja Ketin, Rade Biocanin, Jelena Maksimovic

Abstract:

The abnormal conditions of life and work genetic factors often play a major role in incidence of diabetes-diabetes, heart disease and vascular disease, jaundice, and post traumatic stress. Trauma and post traumatic stress are most common in the displaced persons,and the focus of this paper is to shed light on this issue in former Yugoslavia, Yugoslavia and now in our country. This is caused by increased beta-cell sensitivity to viruses, the development of autoimmune antibodies against its own pancreascells, degenerative changes in cells that r esult in change of structure and insulin. In this paper, we dealt with traumatic events and long-term psycho social consequences for internally displaced persons, several years after displacement, and found a high level of PTSD symptoms. This stress is present in almost 1/3 of internally displaced persons, and every sixth person is suffering from PTSD in the past. Respondents generally suffer from symptoms of intrusion, but there was a large number of symptoms, avoidance and increased arousal. We also found that gender, age andeducation related to the symptoms. Females, and older respondents and internally displaced persons with lower levels of education how a higher level of PTSD symptoms, especially symptoms of intrusion and increase darousal. It is a highly traumatized sample in which more than 1/2 of respondents experienced more than three traumatic events in life,although the number of traumas experienced before, during and after the conflict varies.We found that during the war, internally displaced persons haveexperienced more traumatic events compared with the periodbefore and after the conflict. Trauma are different in type. No significant correlation between the number of experienced trauma and PTSD, suggesting that it is necessary to further study the structure of past traumas and the intermediary effects of certain risk factors and protective factors.

Keywords: living environment, displaced persons, jaundice, diabetes, trauma, diabetic hypertension, post-traumatic stress (PTSD), treatment

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9660 Energy Security and Sustainable Development: Challenges and Prospects

Authors: Abhimanyu Behera

Abstract:

Over the past few years, energy security and sustainable development have moved rapidly into the global agenda. There are two main reasons: first, the impact of high and often volatile energy prices; second, concerns over environmental sustainability particularly about the global climate. Both issues are critically important in which impressive economic growth has boosted the demand for energy and put corresponding strains on the environment. Energy security is a broad concept that focuses on energy availability and pricing. Specifically, it refers to the ability of the energy supply system i.e. suppliers, transporters, distributors and regulatory, financial and R&D institutions to deliver the amount of competitively priced energy that customers demand, within accepted standards of reliability, timeliness, quality, safety. Traditionally, energy security has been defined in the context of the geopolitical risks to external oil supplies but today it is encompassing all energy forms, all the external and internal links bringing the energy to the final consumer, and all the many ways energy supplies can be disrupted including equipment malfunctions, system design flaws, operator errors, malicious computer activities, deficient market and regulatory frameworks, corporate financial problems, labour actions, severe weather and natural events, aggressive acts (e.g. war, terrorism and sabotage), and geopolitical disruptions. In practice, the most challenging disruptions are those linked to: 1) extreme weather events; 2) mismatched electricity supply and demand; 3) regulatory failures; and 4) concentration of oil and gas resources in certain regions of the world. However, insecure energy supplies inhibit development by raising energy costs and imposing expensive cuts in services when disruptions actually occur. The energy supply sector can best advance sustainable development by producing and delivering secure and environmentally-friendly sources of energy and by increasing the efficiency of energy use. With this objective, this paper seeks to highlight the significance of energy security and sustainable development in today’s world. Moreover, it critically overhauls the major challenges towards sustainability of energy security and what are the major policies are taken to overcome these challenges by Government is lucidly explicated in this paper.

Keywords: energy, policies, security, sustainability

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9659 Occupational Exposure and Contamination to Antineoplastic Drugs of Healthcare Professionals in Mauritania

Authors: Antoine Villa, Moustapha Mohamedou, Florence Pilliere, Catherine Verdun-Esquer, Mathieu Molimard, Mohamed Sidatt Cheikh El Moustaph, Mireille Canal-Raffin

Abstract:

Context: In Mauritania, the activity of the National Center of Oncology (NCO) has steadily risen leading to an increase in the handling of antineoplastic drugs (AD) by healthcare professionals. In this context, the AD contamination of those professionals is a major concern for occupational physicians. It has been evaluated using biological monitoring of occupational exposure (BMOE). Methods: The intervention took place in 2015, in 2 care units, and evaluated nurses preparing and/or infusing AD and agents in charge of hygiene. Participants provided a single urine sample, at the end of the week, at the end of their shift. Five molecules were sought using specific high sensitivity methods (UHPLC-MS/MS) with very low limits of quantification (LOQ) (cyclophosphamide (CP), Ifosfamide (IF), methotrexate (MTX): 2.5ng/L; doxorubicin (Doxo): 10ng/L; α-fluoro-β-alanine (FBAL, 5-FU metabolite): 20ng/L). A healthcare worker was considered as 'contaminated' when an AD was detected at a urine concentration equal to or greater than the LOQ of the analytical method or at trace concentration. Results: Twelve persons participated (6 nurses, 6 agents in charge of hygiene). Twelve urine samples were collected and analyzed. The percentage of contamination was 66.6% for all participants (n=8/12), 100% for nurses (6/6) and 33% for agents in charge of hygiene (2/6). In 62.5% (n=5/8) of the contaminated workers, two to four of the AD were detected in the urine. CP was found in the urine of all contaminated workers. FBAL was found in four, MTX in three and Doxo in one. Only IF was not detected. Urinary concentrations (all drugs combined) ranged from 3 to 844 ng/L for nurses and from 3 to 44 ng/L for agents in charge of hygiene. The median urinary concentrations were 87 ng/L, 15.1 ng/L and 4.4 ng/L for FBAL, CP and MTX, respectively. The Doxo urinary concentration was found 218ng/L. Discussion: There is no current biological exposure index for the interpretation of AD contamination. The contamination of these healthcare professionals is therefore established by the detection of one or more AD in urine. These urinary contaminations are higher than the LOQ of the analytical methods, which must be as low as possible. Given the danger of AD, the implementation of corrective measures is essential for the staff. Biological monitoring of occupational exposure is the most reliable process to identify groups at risk, tracing insufficiently controlled exposures and as an alarm signal. These results show the necessity to educate professionals about the risks of handling AD and/or to care for treated patients.

Keywords: antineoplastic drugs, Mauritania, biological monitoring of occupational exposure, contamination

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9658 The Effect of Surgical Intervention on Pediatric and Adolescent Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome

Authors: Ching-Yi Yiu, Hui-Chen Hsu

Abstract:

Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is a popular problem in the modern society. It usually leads to sleep disorder, excessive daytime sleepiness and associated with cardiovascular diseases, cognitive dysfunction and even death. The nonsurgical therapies include continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), diet and oral appliances. The surgical approaches have nasal surgery, tonsillectomy, adenoidectomy, uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UPPP) and transoral robotic surgery (TORS).We compare the impact of surgical treatments on these kinds of patients. Methods: Between January 2018 to September 2022, We have enrolled 125 OSAS patients including 82 male and 43 female in Chi Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Taiwan. The age distribution from 6 to 71 years old (y/o) with mean age 36.1 y/o. The averaged body mass index (BMI) is 25 kg/m2 in male and 25.5 kg/m2 in female. In this cohort, we evaluated their upper airway obstruction sites with nasopharyngoscopy and scheduled a planned surgery. Some of cases received polysomnography (PSG) preoperatively, the averaged apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) is 37.7 events/hour. We have 68 patients received tonsillectomy, 9 received UPPP, 42 received UPPP and septomeatoplasty (SMP) and 6 received adenoidectomy and tonsillectomy (A and T). The subjective daytime sleepiness was evaluated with the Epworth sleepiness scale (ESS). Results: In the 68 tonsillectomy group, the averaged BMI is 24.9 kg/m2. In the UPPP group, the averaged BMI is 28.9 kg/m2. In UPPP and SMP group, the averaged BMI is 27.9 kg/m2. In the A and T group, the averaged BMI is 17.2 kg/m2. The reduction of AHI less than 20 is 58% postoperatively. The ESS reduced from 10.9 to 4.9 after surgery. Conclusion: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome is a common upper airway disturbance in the general population. The prevalence rate is ranging high depending on different regions, age, sex and race. It leads to severe morbidity and mortality including car accident, stroke, nocturnal desaand sudden death and should be considered to be a major public health problem. The CPAP is effective to improve daytime sleepiness but the long-term compliance is low. The surgical treatment with different modalities can produce 50% decrease in AHI and ESS after surgery in the 6 to 12 months short-term period.

Keywords: apnea-hypopnea index, obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, polysomnography, uvulopalatopharyngoplasty

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9657 Transition Economies, Typology, and Models: The Case of Libya

Authors: Abderahman Efhialelbum

Abstract:

The period since the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, and the collapse of the former Soviet Union in December 1985 has seen a major change in the economies and labour markets of Eastern Europe. The events also had reverberating effects across Asia and South America and parts of Africa, including Libya. This article examines the typologies and the models of transition economies. Also, it sheds light on the Libyan transition in particular and the impact of Qadhafi’s regime on the transition process. Finally, it illustrates how the Libyan transition process followed the trajectory of other countries using economic indicators such as free trade, property rights, and inflation.

Keywords: transition, economy, typology, model, Libya

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9656 The Stock Price Effect of Apple Keynotes

Authors: Ethan Petersen

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyze the volatility of Apple’s stock beginning January 3, 2005 up to October 9, 2014, then focus on a range from 30 days prior to each product announcement until 30 days after. Product announcements are filtered; announcements whose 60 day range is devoid of other events are separated. This filtration is chosen to isolate, and study, a potential cross-effect. Concerning Apple keynotes, there are two significant dates: the day the invitations to the event are received and the day of the event itself. As such, the statistical analysis is conducted for both invite-centered and event-centered time frames. A comparison to the VIX is made to determine if the trend is simply following the market or deviating. Regardless of the filtration, we find that there is a clear deviation from the market. Comparing these data sets, there are significantly different trends: isolated events have a constantly decreasing, erratic trend in volatility but an increasing, linear trend is observed for clustered events. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, we would expect a change when new information is publicly known and the results of this study support this claim.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, event study, volatility, VIX

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9655 Nutritional Status of Surgical and Orthopedic Patients: 3B Ward

Authors: Jitaree Tantiyasawatdikul, Bantita Jadnok, Sarunya Tijana

Abstract:

Background: Nutritional status is an important factor before, during, and after an operation. It can help wound healing. If the patients have good nutritional status before and after an operation, wound healing can occur more easily. It can strengthen the immune system leading to decreased infection, reduced length of stay, and reducing the cost to patients and caregivers. Therefore, screening to evaluate the nutritional status of patients in 3B becomes the database for further developing the treatment and also will lead to excellent service from the interdisciplinary team. Objective: To study the nutritional status of patients in surgical ward 3B at Surgical and Orthopedics Nursing Division, Srinagarind Hospital. Method: A descriptive study, to evaluate the nutritional status of 86 patients admitted in 3B between October 2014 and March 2015.The instruments used in this study consisted of two parts: 1) personal data, 2) Screening nutritional status. The data were analyzed by percentage and mean. Results: A sample population of 86 patients aged 22-81 years old, mean age 52.59years, 90.69% are married, female were 55.81%, regular diet 70.93%, patients with no problem oral cavity was 87.21%.The sample population had high incidence of CA 47.67% and secondly cardiovascular disease 36.05 %. Patients with high-risk nutrition was 12.79 % including 45.45% cardiovascular disease and 36.36% CA. Screening of nutritional status of high-risk nutrition was 39.36% severe triceps skinfold (TSF), severe mid-arm muscle circumference(MAMC) 9.09% and severe total lymphocyte 39.36%. Conclusion: The result of nutritional status screening of surgical ward 3B found 12.79% patients with high-risk nutrition including 45.45% with cardiovascular disease .There was no problem with oral cavity and eating.

Keywords: nutritional status, screening, surgical patients, 3B ward, Srinagarind Hospital

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9654 Effects of Hypoxic Duration at Different Growth Stages on Yield Potential of Waxy Corn (Zea mays L.)

Authors: S. Boonlertnirun, R. Suvannasara, K. Boonlertnirun

Abstract:

Hypoxia has negative effects on growth and crop yield, its severity is so varied depending on crop growth stages, duration of hypoxia and crop species. The objective was to evaluate the sensitive growth stage and the duration of hypoxia negatively affecting growth and yield of waxy corn. Pot experiment was conducted using a split plot in randomized complete block with 3 growth stages: V3 (3-4 true leaves), V7 (7-8 true leaves), and R1 (silking stage), and three hypoxic durations: 6, 9, and 12 days, in an open–ended outdoor greenhouse during January to March 2013. The results revealed that different growth stages had significantly (p < 0.5) different responses to hypoxia, seeing that the sensitive growth stage affecting plant height, yield and yield components was mostly detected in V7 growth stage whereas leaf greenness and days to silking were sensitive to hypoxia at R1 growth stage. Different hypoxic durations significantly affected the yield and yield components, hypoxic duration of twelve days showed the most negative effect greater than the others. In this present study, it can be concluded that waxy corn plants were waterlogged at V7 growth stage for twelve days had the most negative effect on yield and yield components.

Keywords: hypoxia duration, waxy corn, growth stage, Zea mays L.

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9653 Community Engagement: Experience from the SIREN Study in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors: Arti Singh, Carolyn Jenkins, Oyedunni S. Arulogun, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Fred S. Sarfo, Bruce Ovbiagele, Enzinne Sylvia

Abstract:

Background: Stroke, the leading cause of adult-onset disability and the second leading cause of death, is a major public health concern particularly pertinent in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where nearly 80% of all global stroke mortalities occur. The Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network (SIREN) seeks to comprehensively characterize the genomic, sociocultural, economic, and behavioral risk factors for stroke and to build effective teams for research to address and decrease the burden of stroke and other non communicable diseases in SSA. One of the first steps to address this goal was to effectively engage the communities that suffer the high burden of disease in SSA. This study describes how the SIREN project engaged six sites in Ghana and Nigeria over the past three years, describing the community engagement activities that have arisen since inception. Aim: The aim of community engagement (CE) within SIREN is to elucidate information about knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and practices (KABP) about stroke and its risk factors from individuals of African ancestry in SSA, and to educate the community about stroke and ways to decrease disabilities and deaths from stroke using socioculturally appropriate messaging and messengers. Methods: Community Advisory Board (CABs), Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and community outreach programs. Results: 27 FGDs with 168 participants including community heads, religious leaders, health professionals and individuals with stroke among others, were conducted, and over 60 CE outreaches have been conducted within the SIREN performance sites. Over 5,900 individuals have received education on cardiovascular risk factors and about 5,000 have been screened for cardiovascular risk factors during the outreaches. FGDs and outreach programs indicate that knowledge of stroke, as well as risk factors and follow-up evidence-based care is limited and often late. Other findings include: 1) Most recognize hypertension as a major risk factor for stroke. 2) About 50% report that stroke is hereditary and about 20% do not know organs affected by stroke. 3) More than 95% willing to participate in genetic testing research and about 85% willing to pay for testing and recommend the test to others. 4) Almost all indicated that genetic testing could help health providers better treat stroke and help scientists better understand the causes of stroke. The CABs provided stakeholder input into SIREN activities and facilitated collaborations among investigators, community members and stakeholders. Conclusion: The CE core within SIREN is a first-of-its kind public outreach engagement initiative to evaluate and address perceptions about stroke and genomics by patients, caregivers, and local leaders in SSA and has implications as a model for assessment in other high-stroke risk populations. SIREN’s CE program uses best practices to build capacity for community-engaged research, accelerate integration of research findings into practice and strengthen dynamic community-academic partnerships within our communities. CE has had several major successes over the past three years including our multi-site collaboration examining the KABP about stroke (symptoms, risk factors, burden) and genetic testing across SSA.

Keywords: community advisory board, community engagement, focus groups, outreach, SSA, stroke

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9652 Identifying Critical Links of a Transport Network When Affected by a Climatological Hazard

Authors: Beatriz Martinez-Pastor, Maria Nogal, Alan O'Connor

Abstract:

During the last years, the number of extreme weather events has increased. A variety of extreme weather events, including river floods, rain-induced landslides, droughts, winter storms, wildfire, and hurricanes, have threatened and damaged many different regions worldwide. These events have a devastating impact on critical infrastructure systems resulting in high social, economical and environmental costs. These events have a huge impact in transport systems. Since, transport networks are completely exposed to every kind of climatological perturbations, and its performance is closely related with these events. When a traffic network is affected by a climatological hazard, the quality of its service is threatened, and the level of the traffic conditions usually decreases. With the aim of understanding this process, the concept of resilience has become most popular in the area of transport. Transport resilience analyses the behavior of a traffic network when a perturbation takes place. This holistic concept studies the complete process, from the beginning of the perturbation until the total recovery of the system, when the perturbation has finished. Many concepts are included in the definition of resilience, such as vulnerability, redundancy, adaptability, and safety. Once the resilience of a transport network can be evaluated, in this case, the methodology used is a dynamic equilibrium-restricted assignment model that allows the quantification of the concept, the next step is its improvement. Through the improvement of this concept, it will be possible to create transport networks that are able to withstand and have a better performance under the presence of climatological hazards. Analyzing the impact of a perturbation in a traffic network, it is observed that the response of the different links, which are part of the network, can be completely different from one to another. Consequently and due to this effect, many questions arise, as what makes a link more critical before an extreme weather event? or how is it possible to identify these critical links? With this aim, and knowing that most of the times the owners or managers of the transport systems have limited resources, the identification of the critical links of a transport network before extreme weather events, becomes a crucial objective. For that reason, using the available resources in the areas that will generate a higher improvement of the resilience, will contribute to the global development of the network. Therefore, this paper wants to analyze what kind of characteristic makes a link a critical one when an extreme weather event damages a transport network and finally identify them.

Keywords: critical links, extreme weather events, hazard, resilience, transport network

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9651 Comparison of the Efficacy of Ketamine-Propofol versus Thiopental Sodium-Fentanyl in Procedural Sedation in the Emergency Department: A Randomized Double-Blind Clinical Trial

Authors: Maryam Bahreini, Mostafa Talebi Garekani, Fatemeh Rasooli, Atefeh Abdollahi

Abstract:

Introduction: Procedural sedation and analgesia have been desirable to handle painful procedures. The trend to find the agent with more efficacy and less complications is still controversial; thus, many sedative regimens have been studied. This study tried to assess the effectiveness and adverse effects of thiopental sodium-fentanyl with the known medication, ketamine-propofol for procedural sedation in the emergency department. Methods: Consenting patients were enrolled in this randomized double-blind trial to receive either 1:1 ketamine-propofol (KP) or thiopental-fentanyl (TF) 1:1 mg: Mg proportion on a weight-based dosing basis to reach the sedation level of American Society of Anesthesiologist class III/IV. The respiratory and hemodynamic complications, nausea and vomiting, recovery agitation, patient recall and satisfaction, provider satisfaction and recovery time were compared. The study was registered in Iranian randomized Control Trial Registry (Code: IRCT2015111325025N1). Results: 96 adult patients were included and randomized, 47 in the KP group and 49 in the TF group. 2.1% in the KP group and 8.1 % in the TF group experienced transient hypoxia leading to performing 4.2 % versus 8.1 % airway maneuvers for 2 groups, respectively; however, no statistically significant difference was observed between 2 combinations, and there was no report of endotracheal placement or further admission. Patient and physician satisfaction were significantly higher in the KP group. There was no difference in respiratory, gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and psychiatric adverse events, recovery time and patient recall of the procedure between groups. The efficacy and complications were not related to the type of procedure or patients’ smoking or addiction trends. Conclusion: Ketamine-propofol and thiopental-fentanyl combinations were effectively comparable although KP resulted in higher patient and provider satisfaction. It is estimated that thiopental fentanyl combination can be as potent and efficacious as ketofol with relatively similar incidence of adverse events in procedural sedation.

Keywords: adverse effects, conscious sedation, fentanyl, propofol, ketamine, safety, thiopental

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9650 Daily Probability Model of Storm Events in Peninsular Malaysia

Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

Abstract:

Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

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9649 Land Use Sensitivity Map for the Extreme Flood Events in the Kelantan River Basin

Authors: Nader Saadatkhah, Jafar Rahnamarad, Shattri Mansor, Zailani Khuzaimah, Arnis Asmat, Nor Aizam Adnan, Siti Noradzah Adam

Abstract:

Kelantan river basin as a flood prone area at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia has suffered several flood and mudflow events in the recent years. The current research attempted to assess the land cover changes impact in the Kelantan river basin focused on the runoff contributions from different land cover classes and the potential impact of land cover changes on runoff generation. In this regards, the hydrological regional modeling of rainfall induced runoff event as the improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid based regional model (Improved-TRIGRS) was employed to compute rate of infiltration, and subsequently changes in the discharge volume in this study. The effects of land use changes on peak flow and runoff volume was investigated using storm rainfall events during the last three decades.

Keywords: improved-TRIGRS model, land cover changes, Kelantan river basin, flood event

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9648 Opacity Synthesis with Orwellian Observers

Authors: Moez Yeddes

Abstract:

The property of opacity is widely used in the formal verification of security in computer systems and protocols. Opacity is a general language-theoretic scheme of many security properties of systems. Opacity is parametrized with framework in which several security properties of a system can be expressed. A secret behaviour of a system is opaque if a passive attacker can never deduce its occurrence from the system observation. Instead of considering the case of static observability where the set of observable events is fixed off-line or dynamic observability where the set of observable events changes over time depending on the history of the trace, we introduce Orwellian partial observability where unobservable events are not revealed provided that downgrading events never occurs in the future of the trace. Orwellian partial observability is needed to model intransitive information flow. This Orwellian observability is knwon as ipurge function. We show in previous work how to verify opacity for regular secret is opaque for a regular language L w.r.t. an Orwellian projection is PSPACE-complete while it has been proved undecidable even for a regular language L w.r.t. a general Orwellian observation function. In this paper, we address two problems of opacification of a regular secret ϕ for a regular language L w.r.t. an Orwellian projection: Given L and a secret ϕ ∈ L, the first problem consist to compute some minimal regular super-language M of L, if it exists, such that ϕ is opaque for M and the second consists to compute the supremal sub-language M′ of L such that ϕ is opaque for M′. We derive both language-theoretic characterizations and algorithms to solve these two dual problems.

Keywords: security policies, opacity, formal verification, orwellian observation

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9647 Stressful Life Events and Their Influence on Childhood Obesity and Emotional Well-Being: Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: M. Rojo, M. Blanco, T. Lacruz, S. Solano, L. Beltran, M. Graell, A. R. Sepulveda.

Abstract:

There is an association between an early accumulation of Stressful Life Events (SLE) during childhood and various physical and psychological health complications. However, there are only a few studies on this topic in children and adolescents with overweight or obesity. The general aim of the study was to evaluate the accumulation and type of SLE in 200 children from 8 to 12 years old and analyze the relationship with their emotional well-being and weight status (obesity, overweight and normal weight). The children and their families completed an interview. The evaluated variables that are included in this study are sociodemographic measures, medical/psychological history, anthropometric measures (BMI, z-BMI), and psychological variables (children's clinical interview K-SADS-PL(Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children Present and Lifetime Version) and battery of questionnaires). Results: Children with overweight and obesity accumulate more stressful events from an early age and have a significantly higher percentage of psychiatric diagnoses, compared to their peers with normal weight. Presenting a child psychiatric disorder is related to greater z-BMI and the total number of SLE (p < 0.001). A higher z-BMI is also related to a greater number of stressful events during childhood. There is also a positive and significant relationship between the total number of SLE and worse emotional well-being (higher levels of anxious and depressive symptoms and low self-esteem of children) (p < 0.01). Conclusion: Children with overweight and obesity grow up in a family, school, and social context where more stressors are accumulated. This is also directly associated with worse emotional well-being. It is necessary to implement multidisciplinary prevention and intervention strategies in different changes (school, family, and health). This study is included in a project funded by the Ministry of Innovation and Science (PSI2011-23127).

Keywords: childhood obesity, emotional well-being, psychopathology, stressful life events

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9646 Advanced Real-Time Fluorescence Imaging System for Rat's Femoral Vein Thrombosis Monitoring

Authors: Sang Hun Park, Chul Gyu Song

Abstract:

Artery and vein occlusion changes observed in patients and experimental animals are unexplainable symptoms. As the fat accumulated in cardiovascular ruptures, it causes vascular blocking. Likewise, early detection of cardiovascular disease can be useful for treatment. In this study, we used the mouse femoral occlusion model to observe the arterial and venous occlusion changes without darkroom. We observed the femoral arterial flow pattern changes by proposed fluorescent imaging system using an animal model of thrombosis. We adjusted the near-infrared light source current in order to control the intensity of the fluorescent substance light. We got the clear fluorescent images and femoral artery flow pattern were measured by a 5-minute interval. The result showed that the fluorescent substance flowing in the femoral arteries were accumulated in thrombus as time passed, and the fluorescence of other vessels gradually decreased.

Keywords: thrombus, fluorescence, femoral, arteries

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
9645 Applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Cardiac imaging

Authors: Angelis P. Barlampas

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to inform the reader, about the various applications of artificial intelligence (AI), in cardiac imaging. AI grows fast and its role is crucial in medical specialties, which use large amounts of digital data, that are very difficult or even impossible to be managed by human beings and especially doctors.Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of computers to mimic human cognitive function, performing tasks such as learning, problem-solving, and autonomous decision making based on digital data. Whereas AI describes the concept of using computers to mimic human cognitive tasks, machine learning (ML) describes the category of algorithms that enable most current applications described as AI. Some of the current applications of AI in cardiac imaging are the follows: Ultrasound: Automated segmentation of cardiac chambers across five common views and consequently quantify chamber volumes/mass, ascertain ejection fraction and determine longitudinal strain through speckle tracking. Determine the severity of mitral regurgitation (accuracy > 99% for every degree of severity). Identify myocardial infarction. Distinguish between Athlete’s heart and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, as well as restrictive cardiomyopathy and constrictive pericarditis. Predict all-cause mortality. CT Reduce radiation doses. Calculate the calcium score. Diagnose coronary artery disease (CAD). Predict all-cause 5-year mortality. Predict major cardiovascular events in patients with suspected CAD. MRI Segment of cardiac structures and infarct tissue. Calculate cardiac mass and function parameters. Distinguish between patients with myocardial infarction and control subjects. It could potentially reduce costs since it would preclude the need for gadolinium-enhanced CMR. Predict 4-year survival in patients with pulmonary hypertension. Nuclear Imaging Classify normal and abnormal myocardium in CAD. Detect locations with abnormal myocardium. Predict cardiac death. ML was comparable to or better than two experienced readers in predicting the need for revascularization. AI emerge as a helpful tool in cardiac imaging and for the doctors who can not manage the overall increasing demand, in examinations such as ultrasound, computed tomography, MRI, or nuclear imaging studies.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, cardiac imaging, ultrasound, MRI, CT, nuclear medicine

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9644 Measuring Banks’ Antifragility via Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

Abstract:

Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
9643 A Machine Learning-Based Approach to Capture Extreme Rainfall Events

Authors: Willy Mbenza, Sho Kenjiro

Abstract:

Increasing efforts are directed towards a better understanding and foreknowledge of extreme precipitation likelihood, given the adverse effects associated with their occurrence. This knowledge plays a crucial role in long-term planning and the formulation of effective emergency response. However, predicting extreme events reliably presents a challenge to conventional empirical/statistics due to the involvement of numerous variables spanning different time and space scales. In the recent time, Machine Learning has emerged as a promising tool for predicting the dynamics of extreme precipitation. ML techniques enables the consideration of both local and regional physical variables that have a strong influence on the likelihood of extreme precipitation. These variables encompasses factors such as air temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, aerosol concentration, among others. In this study, we develop an ML model that incorporates both local and regional variables while establishing a robust relationship between physical variables and precipitation during the downscaling process. Furthermore, the model provides valuable information on the frequency and duration of a given intensity of precipitation.

Keywords: machine learning (ML), predictions, rainfall events, regional variables

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9642 Fracture Pressure Predict Based on Well Logs of Depleted Reservoir in Southern Iraqi Oilfield

Authors: Raed H. Allawi

Abstract:

Formation pressure is the most critical parameter in hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation. Specifically, predicting abnormal pressures (high formation pressures) and subnormal pressure zones can provide valuable information to minimize uncertainty for anticipated drilling challenges and risks. This study aims to interpret and delineate the pore and fracture pressure of the Mishrif reservoir in the southern Iraq Oilfield. The data required to implement this study included acoustic compression wave, gamma-ray, bulk density, and drilling events. Furthermore, supporting these models needs the pore pressure measurement from the Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT). Many measured values of pore pressure were used to validate the accurate model. Using sonic velocity approaches, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was about 4%. The fracture pressure results were consistent with the measurement data, actual drilling report, and events. The model's results will be a guide for successful drilling in future wells in the same oilfield.

Keywords: pore pressure, fracture pressure, overburden pressure, effective stress, drilling events

Procedia PDF Downloads 51
9641 Night Shift Work as an Oxidative Stressor: A Systematic Review

Authors: Madeline Gibson

Abstract:

Night shift workers make up an essential part of the modern workforce. However, night shift workers have higher incidences of late in life diseases and earlier mortality. Night shift workers are exposed to constant light and experience circadian rhythm disruption. Sleep disruption is thought to increase oxidative stress, defined as an imbalance of excess pro-oxidative factors and reactive oxygen species over anti-oxidative activity. Oxidative stress can damage cells, proteins and DNA and can eventually lead to varied chronic diseases such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer’s and dementia. This review aimed to understand whether night shift workers were at greater risk of oxidative stress and to contribute to a consensus on this relationship. Twelve studies published in 2001-2019 examining 2,081 workers were included in the review. Studies compared both the impact of working a single shift and in comparisons between those who regularly work night shifts and only day shifts. All studies had evidence to support this relationship across a range of oxidative stress indicators, including increased DNA damage, reduced DNA repair capacity, increased lipid peroxidation, higher levels of reactive oxygen species, and to a lesser extent, a reduction in antioxidant defense. This research supports the theory that melatonin and the sleep-wake cycle mediate the relationship between shift work and oxidative stress. It is concluded that night shift work increases the risk for oxidative stress and, therefore, future disease. Recommendations are made to promote the long-term health of shift workers considering these findings.

Keywords: night shift work, coxidative stress, circadian rhythm, melatonin, disease, circadian rhythm disruption

Procedia PDF Downloads 220
9640 Exploring Management Strategies Used by Grade 1 Educators in the Classroom Working with Learners Presenting with ADHD Symptoms in the Western Cape

Authors: Athena Pedro, Gina Stockingt

Abstract:

This study aimed to explore current management strategies used by Grade 1 educators working with learners presenting with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) symptoms in mainstream schools in the Western Cape. A sample of grade 1 educators were selected for the study. The sample comprised of twelve grades 1 educators from four local schools in the Western Cape. All twelve educators were individually interviewed and discussed the management strategies used in the classroom when working with learner presenting with ADHD symptoms. The data was analysed qualitatively with a focus in identifying, sorting and analyse meaning according to the subjective perception, understanding and behaviour of the grade 1 educators within their context. Furthermore, the social, cultural, political and physical environment of the participants were taken into consideration to explore and interpret the link between these elements. The findings were as follows: many educators felt that they did not receive enough training on Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, therefore lacking knowledge on how to apply management strategies to address this. Managing a diverse range of learners, lack of resources, lack of parental involvement, lack of assistance in the classroom, as well as distracted and disorganised children posed as challenges for educators working with learners presenting with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder symptoms.

Keywords: ADHD, Grade 1 educators, Learners, Management strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
9639 Effect of Massage and Apium Graveolens Consumption on Liver Markers in Sedentary Women

Authors: M. Gholinjad Kordan, M. Ghasemi, S. Fazelifar

Abstract:

Aim: liver plays a role in an astounding number of bodily functions: it helps with blood sugar regulation; metabolizes hormones; and traps and breaks down bacteria and toxins. Unfortunately, bodily demands can overwhelm your liver. Massage therapy can help by restoring healthy circulation and speeding the elimination of toxins. Apium graveolens has antioxidant property because of its flavonoid compounds. The purpose of this study was to determine Effect of massage and graveolens consumption on liver markers in women. Methodology: forty non-athlete male students were randomly divided into four groups: 1-control, 2-massage, 3-massage and graveolens and 4-graveolens. Amount of 5cc Blood sampling were obtained pre-test and post-test (after 12 weeks). Subjects received Russian massage for 8 weeks and 3 days a week for 20 minutes. Also, Complementary groups received the capsule supplement of graveolens after eating for twelve weeks and three times a day. Data was analyzed with One way ANOVA and tukey in p < 0/05. Results: Based on research findings, twelve weeks massage and graveolens consumption lead to a significant decrease in enzymes activity of ALT, AST and ALP in sedentary women. Conclusion: Results of This study shows that massage or graveolens consumption and especially combination of both can be used as desirable threpatic method in order to reduce or improve symptoms caused by excess weight, especially the liver damage.

Keywords: massage, graveolens, liver markers, sedentary women

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
9638 The Effect of Parathyroid Hormone on Aldosterone Secretion in Patients with Primary Hyperparathyroidism

Authors: Branka Milicic Stanic, Romana Mijovic

Abstract:

In primary hyperparathyroidism, an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease may exist due to increased activity of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS). In adenomatous altered tissue of parathyroid gland, compared to normal tissue, there are two to fourfold increase in the expression of type 1 angiotensin II receptors. As there is a clear evidence of the independent role of aldosterone on the cardiovascular system, the aim of this study was to evaluate the existence of an association between aldosterone secretion and parathyroid hormone in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism. This study included 48 patients with elevated parathyroid hormone who had come to the Departement of Nuclear Medicine, Clinical Center of Vojvodina, for Parathyroid Scintigraphy. The control group consisted of 30 healthy subjects who matched age and gender to the study group. All the results were statistically processed by statistical package STATISTICA 14 (Statsoft Inc,Tulsa, OK, USA). The survey was conducted between February 2017 and April 2018 at the Departement of Nuclear Medicine and at the Departement for Endocinology Diagnoistics, in Clinical Center of Vojvodina, Novi Sad. Compared to the control group, the study group had statistically significantly higher values of aldosterone (p=0.028), total calcium (p=0.01), ionized calcium (p=0.003) and parathyroid hormone (N-TACT PTH) (p=0.00), while statistically a significant lower levels in the study group were for phosphorus (p=0.003) and vitamin D (p=0.04). A linear correlation analysis in the study group revealed a statistically significant degree of positive correlation between renin and N-TACT PTH (r=0.688, p<0.05); renin and calcium (r=0.673, p<0.05) and renin and ionized calcium (r=0.641, p<0.05). Serum aldosterone and parathyroid hormone levels (N-TACT) were correlated positively in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (r=0.509, p<0.05). According to the linear correlation analysis in the control group, aldosterone showed no positive correlation with N-TACT PTH (r=-0.285, p>0.05), as well as total and ionized calcium (r=-0.200, p>0.05; r=-0.313, p>0.05). In multivariate regression analysis of the study group, the strongest predictive variable of aldosterone secretion was N-TACT PTH (p=0.011). Aldosterone correlated positively to PTH levels in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism, and the fact is that in these patients aldosterone might be a key mediator of cardiovascular symptoms. All this knowledge should help to find new treatments to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Keywords: aldosterone, hyperparathyroidism, parathyroid hormone, parathyroid gland

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
9637 Transcriptomic Analysis of Fragrant Rice Reveals the Involvement of Post-transcriptional Regulation in Response to Zn Foliar Application

Authors: Muhammad Imran, Sarfraz Shafiq, Xiangru Tang

Abstract:

Alternative splicing (AS) is an important post-transcriptional regulatory mechanism to generate transcripts variability and proteome diversity in plants. Fragrant rice (Oryza sativa L.) has a high economic and nutritional value, and the application of micronutrients regulate 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline (2-AP) production, which is responsible for aroma in fragrant rice. However, no systematic investigation of AS events in response to micronutrients (Zn) has been performed in fragrant rice. Furthermore, the post-transcriptional regulation of genes involved in 2-AP biosynthesis is also not known. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of AS events under two gradients of Zn treatment in two different fragrant rice cultivars (Meixiangzhan-2 and Xiangyaxiangzhan) was performed. A total of 386 and 598 significant AS events were found in Meixiangzhan-2 treated with low and high doses of Zn, respectively. In Xiangyaxiangzhan, a total of 449 and 598 significant AS events were found in low and high doses of Zn, respectively. Go analysis indicated that these genes were highly enriched in physiological processes, metabolism, and cellular process in both cultivars. However, genotype and dose-dependent AS events were also detected in both cultivars. By comparing differential AS (DAS) events with differentially expressed genes (DEGs), we found a weak overlap among DAS and DEGs in both fragrant rice cultivars, indicating that only a few genes are post-transcriptionally regulated in response to Zn treatment. We further report that Zn differentially regulates the expression of 2-AP biosynthesis-related genes in both cultivars, and Zn treatment altered the editing frequency of SNPs in the genes involved in 2-AP biosynthesis. Finally, we showed that epigenetic modifications associated with active gene transcription are generally enriched over 2-AP biosynthesis-related genes. Taken together, our results provide evidence of the post-transcriptional gene regulation in fragrant rice in response to Zn treatment and highlight that the 2-AP biosynthesis pathway may also be post-transcriptionally regulated through epigenetic modifications. These findings will serve as a cornerstone for further investigation to understand the molecular mechanisms of 2-AP biosynthesis in fragrant rice.

Keywords: fragrant rice, 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline, gene expression, zinc, alternative splicing, SNPs

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9636 Analysis of Trend and Variability of Rainfall in the Mid-Mahanadi River Basin of Eastern India

Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

Abstract:

The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km2 and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km2 and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

Procedia PDF Downloads 281