Search results for: shelter population dynamics

Authors: Markéta Chmelíková, David Ullrich, Iva Burešová

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The paper maps the possibilities and limits of diagnosing selected personality and performance characteristics of military leadership and psychology students in the context of coping with challenging situations. Individuals vary greatly inter-individually in their ability to effectively manage extreme situations, yet existing diagnostic tools are often criticized mainly for their low predictive power. Nowadays, every modern army focuses primarily on the systematic minimization of potential risks, including the prediction of desirable forms of behavior and the performance of military commanders. The context of military leadership is well known for its life-threatening nature. Therefore, it is crucial to research stress load in the specific context of military leadership for the purpose of possible anticipation of human failure in managing extreme situations of military leadership. The aim of the submitted pilot study, using an experiment of 24 hours duration, is to verify the possibilities of a specific combination of psychodiagnostic to predict people who possess suitable equipment for coping with increased stress load. In our pilot study, we conducted an experiment of 24 hours duration with an experimental group (N=13) in the bomb shelter and a control group (N=11) in a classroom. Both groups were represented by military leadership students (N=11) and psychology students (N=13). Both groups were equalized in terms of study type and gender. Participants were administered the following test battery of personality characteristics: Big Five Inventory 2 (BFI-2), Short Dark Triad (SD-3), Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ), Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS), and Impulsive Behavior Scale (UPPS-P). This test battery was administered only once at the beginning of the experiment. Along with this, they were administered a test battery consisting of the Test of Attention (d2) and the Bourdon test four times overall with 6 hours ranges. To better simulate an extreme situation – we tried to induce sleep deprivation - participants were required to try not to fall asleep throughout the experiment. Despite the assumption that a stay in an underground bomb shelter will manifest in impaired cognitive performance, this expectation has been significantly confirmed in only one measurement, which can be interpreted as marginal in the context of multiple testing. This finding is a fundamental insight into the issue of stress management in extreme situations, which is crucial for effective military leadership. The results suggest that a 24-hour stay in a shelter, together with sleep deprivation, does not seem to simulate sufficient stress for an individual, which would be reflected in the level of cognitive performance. In the context of these findings, it would be interesting in future to extend the diagnostic battery with physiological indicators of stress, such as: heart rate, stress score, physical stress, mental stress ect.

Keywords: bomb shelter, extreme situation, military leadership, psychodiagnostic

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Authors: Christopher I. Ifeacho, Adeleke Omolade

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The paper examines the relationship between energy price dynamics and green growth in Sub Sahara African Countries. The quest for adopting green energy in order to improve green growth that can engender sustainability and stability has received more attention from researchers in recent times. This study uses a panel autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate this relationship. Findings from the result showed that energy price dynamics and exchange rates have more short-run significant impacts on green growth in individual countries rather than the pooled result. Furthermore, the long-run result confirmed that inflation and capital have a significant long-run relationship with green growth. The causality test result revealed the existence of a bi-directional relationship between green growth and energy price dynamics. The study recommends caution in a currency devaluation and improvement in renewable energy production in the Sub Sahara Africa in order to achieve sustainable green growth.

Keywords: green growth, energy price dynamics, Sub Saharan Africa, relationship

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Authors: Dibya Jivan Pati, Kazuhisa Iki, Riken Homma

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Unlike other metro cities of India, Bhubaneswar–the capital city of Odisha, is expected to reach 1-million-mark population by now. The demands of dwelling unit requirement mostly among urban poor belonging to Economically Weaker section (EWS) and Low Income groups (LIG) is becoming a challenge due to high housing cost and rents. As a matter of fact, it’s also noted that, with increase in population, the solid waste generation also increases subsequently affecting the environment due to inefficiency in collection of waste by local government bodies. Methods of utilizing Solid Waste - especially in form of Plastic bottles, Glass bottles and Metal cans (PGM) are now widely used as an alternative material for construction of low-cost building by Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in developing countries like India to help the urban poor afford a shelter. The application of disposed plastic bottle used in construction of single dwelling significantly reduces the overall cost of construction to as much as 14% compared to traditional construction material. Therefore, considering its cost-benefit result, it’s possible to provide housing to EWS and LIGs at an affordable price. In this paper, we estimated the quantity of plastic bottles generated in Bhubaneswar which further helped to estimate the possible number of single dwelling unit that can be constructed on yearly basis so as to refrain from further housing shortage. The estimation results will be practically used for planning and managing low-cost housing business by local government and NGOs.

Keywords: construction, dwelling unit, plastic bottle, solid waste generation, groups

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Authors: Musa Ogah Ari

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Poverty has engaged the attention of the global community. Both the rich and poor countries are concerned about its prevalence and impacts. This phenomenon is more pervasive among developing countries with the greater challenges manifesting among African countries. In Nigeria people live with very low income, and so decent three-square meals, clothes, shelter and other basic necessities are very difficult to come by for most of the population. Qualitative health facilities are seriously lacking to over 160 million population in the state. Equally lacking are educational and social infrastructures that can be available to the people at affordable rates. Roads linking the interior parts of the state are generally in deplorable conditions, particularly in the rainy season. Safe drinking water is hard to come by as the state is not properly placed and equipped to function in full capacity to serve the interest of the people. The challenges of poverty is definitely enormous for both the national and state governments consequently, debilitating scourge of poverty. As the ruling elites in Nigeria claim to reduce the rising profile of poverty through series of policies and programmes, food production, promotion and funding of co-operatives for agriculture, improvement of infrastructures at the rural areas to guaranteeing employment through skill acquisition, assistance of rural women to break away from poverty and the provision of small scale credit facilities to poor members of the public were abysmally low. It is observed that the poverty alleviation programmes and policies failed because they were by nature, character and implementation pro-elites and anti-masses. None of the programmes or policies engaged the rural poor either in terms of formulation or implementation.

Keywords: the state, poverty, government policies, strategies, social amenities, corruption

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Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

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Recently, crystal growth technologies have made progress by the requirement for the high quality of crystal materials. To control the crystal growth dynamics actively by external forces is useuful for reducing composition non-uniformity. In this study, a control method based on model predictive control using thermal inputs is proposed for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials. The control system of crystal growth dynamics considered here is governed by the continuity, momentum, energy, and mass transport equations. To establish the control method for such thermal fluid systems, we adopt model predictive control known as a kind of optimal feedback control in which the control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control method for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials.

Keywords: model predictive control, optimal control, process control, crystal growth

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Authors: Luong A. Nguyen, Elihu Deneke, Thomas L. Harman

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This paper describes a multibody dynamics algorithm formulated for parallel implementation on multiprocessor computing platforms using the divide-and-conquer approach. The system of interest is a general topology of rigid and elastic articulated bodies with or without loops. The algorithm is an extension of Featherstone’s divide and conquer approach to include the flexible-body dynamics formulation. The equations of motion, configured for the International Space Station (ISS) with its robotic manipulator arm as a system of articulated flexible bodies, are implemented in separate computer processors. The performance of this divide-and-conquer algorithm implementation in multiple processors is compared with an existing method implemented on a single processor.

Keywords: multibody dynamics, multiple processors, multithreading, divide-and-conquer algorithm, computational efficiency, flexible body dynamics

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Authors: Htet Khaing Lin

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This study explores the relationship between a diverse set of variables, encompassing both environmental and socio-economic factors, and poverty levels in the Philippines for the years 2012, 2015, and 2018. Employing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Models (SLM), and Spatial Error Models (SEM), this study delves into the dynamics of key indicators, including daytime and nighttime land surface temperature, cropland surface, urban land surface, rainfall, population size, normalized difference water, vegetation, and drought indices. The findings reveal consistent patterns and unexpected correlations, highlighting the need for nuanced policies that address the multifaceted challenges arising from the interplay of environmental and socio-economic factors.

Keywords: poverty analysis, OLS, spatial lag models, spatial error models, Philippines, google earth engine, satellite data, environmental dynamics, socio-economic factors

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Authors: Ashwini Bhosale, Yogesh Patil

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Urban areas are extremely complicated environmental settings, where health and well-being of an individual and population are governed by a large number of bio-physical, socio-economical, and inclusive aspects. Although poverty and slums are the prime issues under UN-HABITAT agenda of environmental sustainability, slums, the inevitable part of urban environment, have not accounted for inclusive city planning. Developing nations, where about 60 % of world slum population resides, are increasingly under pressure to uplift the urban poor, particularly slum dwellers. From a point of advantage, these new slum redevelopment projects have succeeded in providing legitimized and more permanent and stable shelter for the low income people, as well as individualized sanitation and water supply. However, they unfortunately follow the “one type fits all" approach and exhibit no response to the climatic design needs on Mumbai. The thesis focuses on the study of environmental perspectives in the context of Daylight, natural ventilation and social aspects in the design process of Slum-Rehabilitation schemes (SRS) – case of Mumbai. It attempts to investigate into Indian approaches about SRS and concludes upon strategies to be incorporated in SRS to improve the overall SRS environment. The main objectives of this work have been to identify and study the spatial configuration and possibilities of daylight and natural ventilation in Slum Rehabilitated buildings. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated by comparison with the daylight luminance simulated by lighting software, namely ECOTECT, and with measurements under real skies whereas for the ventilation study purpose, software named FLOW DESIGN was used.

Keywords: urban environment, slum-rehabilitation, daylight, natural-ventilation, architectural consequences

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Authors: Hamed A. El-Serehy, Khaled A. Al-Rasheid, Fahad A Al-Misned

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The meiofaunal population fluctuation, microbial dynamic and the composition of the sedimentary organic matter were investigated seasonally in the Egyptian shores along the northern part of Red Sea. Total meiofaunal population densities were extremely low with an annual average of 109 ±26 ind./10 cm2 and largely dominated by nematodes (on annual average from 52% to 94% of total meiofaunal density). The benthic microbial population densities ranged from 0.26±0.02 x 108 to 102.67±18.62 x 108/g dry sediment. Total sedimentary organic matter concentrations varied between 5.8 and 11.6 mg/g and the organic carbon, which was measured as summation of the carbohydrates, proteins and lipids, accounted for only a small fraction of being 32 % of the total organic matter. Chlorophyll a attained very low values and fluctuated between 2 and 11 µg/g. The very low chlorophyll a concentration in the Egyptian coasts along the Red Sea can suggest that the sedimentary organic matter along the Egyptian coasts is dominated by organic detrital and heterotrophic bacteria on one hand, and do not promote carbon transfer towards the higher trophic level on the other hand. However, the present study indicates that the existing of well diversified meiofaunal group, with a total of ten meiofaunal taxa, can serve as food for higher trophic levels in the Red Sea marine ecosystem.

Keywords: bacteria, meiofauna, intertidal sediments, Red Sea

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Authors: Wataru Nakamura, Tomoaki Hashimoto, Liang-Kuang Chen

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This paper provides a state estimation method for automatic control systems of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. A nonlinear tire model is employed to represent the realistic behavior of a vehicle. In general, all the state variables of control systems are not precisedly known, because those variables are observed through output sensors and limited parts of them might be only measurable. Hence, automatic control systems must incorporate some type of state estimation. It is needed to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear vehicle dynamics with restricted measurable state variables. For this purpose, unscented Kalman filter method is applied in this study for estimating the state variables of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The objective of this paper is to propose a state estimation method using unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: state estimation, control systems, observer systems, nonlinear systems

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Authors: Yousef Bakhbakhi

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Crystallization with supercritical fluids (SCFs), as a developed technology to produce particles of micron and sub-micron size with narrow size distribution, has found appreciable importance as an environmentally friendly technology. Particle synthesis using SCFs can be achieved employing a number of special processes involving solvent and antisolvent mechanisms. In this study, the compressed antisolvent (PCA) process is utilized as a model to analyze the theoretical complexity of crystallization with supercritical fluids. The population balance approach has proven to be an effectual technique to simulate and predict the particle size and size distribution. The nucleation and growth mechanisms of the particles formation in the PCA process is investigated using the population balance equation, which describes the evolution of the particle through coalescence and breakup levels with time. The employed mathematical population balance model contains a set of the partial differential equation with algebraic constraints, which demands a rigorous numerical approach. The combined Collocation and Galerkin finite element method are proposed as a high-resolution technique to solve the dynamics of the PCA process.

Keywords: particle formation, particle size and size distribution, PCA, supercritical carbon dioxide

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Authors: Sinchan Ghosh, Fahad Al Basir, Santanu Ray, Sabyasachi Bhattacharya

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The cooperatively breeding birds have two major ranks for the sexually mature birds. The breeders mate and produce offspring while the non-breeding helpers increase the chick production rate through help in mate-finding and allo-parenting. However, the chicks also cooperate to raise their younger siblings through warming, defending and food sharing. Although, the existing literatures describes the evolution of allo-parenting in birds but do not differentiate the significance of allo-parenting in sexually immature and mature helpers separately. This study addresses the significance of both immature and mature helpers’ contribution to the total sustainable bird population in a breeding site using Blue-tailed bee-eater as a test-bed species. To serve this purpose, a mathematical model has been built considering each social status and chicks as separate but interactive compartments. Also, to observe the dynamics of each social status with changing prey abundance, a prey population has been introduced as an additional compartment. The model was analyzed for stability condition and was validated using field-data. A simulation experiment was then performed to observe the change in equilibria with a varying helping rate from both the helpers. The result from the simulation experiment suggest that the cooperative breeding population changes its population sizes significantly with a change in helping rate from the sexually immature helpers. On the other hand, the mature helpers do not contribute to the stability of the population equilibrium as much as the immature helpers.

Keywords: Blue-tailed bee eater, Altruism, Mathematical Ethology, Behavioural modelling

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Al-Deeb, Hamda Ateeq Al Dhaheri

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Insects cause major damage to crops and fruit trees worldwide. In the United Arab Emirates, the date palm tree is the most economically important tree which is used for date production as well as an ornamental tree. In 2002, the number of date palm trees in UAE was 40,700,000 and it is increasing over time. The longhorn stem borer (Jebusaea hammerschmidtii) and the lesser date month (Batrachedra amydraula) are important insect pests causing damage to date palm trees in UAE. Population dynamics of the Jebusaea hammerschmidtii and Batrachedra amydraula were studied by using light and pheromons traps, respectively in Al-Ain, UAE. The first trap catch of B. amydraula adults occurred on 19 April and the insect population peaked up on 26 April 2014. The first trap catch of J. hammerschmidtii occurred in April 2014. The numbers increased over time and the population peak occurred in June. The trapping was also done in 2015. The changes in insect numbers in relation to weather parameters are discussed. Also, the importance of the results on the management of these two pests is highlighted.

Keywords: date palm, integrated pest management, UAE, light trap, pheromone trap

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Authors: Siriniya Siribrahmanakul

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Introduction:SARsCOVID-19 is rapidly spreading, and some people may exhibit severe symptoms. Mortality rate of 2.0–3.0% with COVID-19 infection atworldwide. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA), located on chromosome 6, consist of HLA class I and class II. HLA are used by the immune system to attach self-antigens. Previous studies, HLA-DRB1*01:01,HLA-DRB1*12:01and HLA-DRB1*14:04 were, showed significant difference with severe COVID-19 in the Chinese population by p-value < 0.05. Objective: We investigated the prevalence of HLA-DRB1 alleles associated with severe COVID-19 in Thai population. Materials and Methods:200 DNA samples were isolated from EDTA blood using the MagNAprue Compact Nucleic Acid Isolation kits.HLA-DRB1alleles were genotyped using sequence-specific oligonucleotides (PCR-SSOs). Results:The frequency of HLA-DRB1 alleles in Thai population wereHLA-DRB1*12:02 (15.75%), HLA-DRB1*15:02 (14.50%), HLA-DRB1*09:01 (11.50%), HLA-DRB1*07:01 (9.50%), HLA-DRB1*03:01,HLA-DRB1*05:01 (5.75%), HLA-DRB1*14:01 (5.50%), HLA-DRB1*16:02 (4.50%), HLA-DRB1*04:05 (4.00%), HLA-DRB1*14:03 (3.25%), HLA-DRB1*10:01 (2.25%) and HLA-DRB1*13:02 (2.00%). Particularly, HLA-DRB1*12:02 allele was the highest allele frequency presented in the four regions groups of Thai population. Furthermore, the HLA-DRB1* alleles associated with severe COVID-19, which consists ofHLA-DRB1*14:04(2.00 %) and HLA-DRB1*12:01(0.50%) in Thai population, whereas HLA-DRB1*01:01 allele was not found in this population. HLA-DRB1*14:04 and HLA-DRB1*12:01alleles were similarly distributed in four regions populations in Thailand (p-value > 0.05). The alleles frequencies of HLA-DRB1*14:04 and HLA-DRB1*12:01, which associated with severe COVID-19, had no significant differences between Thai population, South China population, South Africa population, and South Koreapopulation (p-value > 0.05). Conclusions: Particularly, this study has focused on allele frequency of HLA-DRB1*14:04in a healthy Thai population to evaluating their impact on the severe COVID-19. Furthermore, our research needs to be done in larger numbers of Thai patients.

Keywords: HLA-DRB1, allele frequency, Thai population, COVID-19 marker

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Authors: Tai-Young Park, Yangjin Park

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Introduction: This study analyzed a family therapy case involving a female client in her thirties with panic disorder (PD) in South Korea. We identified five stages of the psychological process in the development of PD and examined external situations, family dynamics, and psychological experiences at each stage. Method: The client, mother, sister, and husband participated in therapy. Researchers analyzed the transcripts, notes, and video recordings of the therapy sessions. A thematic analysis was used to examine the data and display our findings using a network. Results: The developmental process of PD was as follows: (1) formation of anxiety, (2) sheltered life, (3) crisis, (4) loss of safe haven, and (5) inner breakdown. Conclusion: The family dynamics that developed as a result of coping with external situations in each stage contributed to clients’ psychological experiences. These psychological experiences triggered anxiety, which led to the development of PD. Moreover, this study empirically suggests that family dynamics can be associated with a person’s internal experiences that could lead to PD. Our findings highlight the significance of functional family dynamics and coping patterns when facing difficult external situations or crises.

Keywords: developmental process, family therapy, panic disorder, psychological dynamics

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Authors: Arturo Ayala-Hernandez, Humberto Hijar

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We propose a new alternative method for imposing fluid-solid boundary conditions in simulations of Multiparticle Collision Dynamics. Our method is based on the introduction of an explicit potential force acting between the fluid particles and a surface representing a solid boundary. We show that our method can be used in simulations of plane Poiseuille flows. Important quantities characterizing the flow and the fluid-solid interaction like the slip coefficient at the solid boundary and the effective viscosity of the fluid, are measured in terms of the set of independent parameters defining the numerical implementation. We find that our method can be used to simulate the correct hydrodynamic flow within a wide range of values of these parameters.

Keywords: Multiparticle Collision Dynamics, fluid-solid, boundary conditions, molecular dynamics

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Authors: Lara A. Alshawawreh, R. Sean Smith, John B. Wood

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This study focuses on the sheltering response in the Middle East, specifically through reviewing two Syrian refugee camps in Jordan, involving Zaatari and Azraq. Zaatari camp involved the rapid deployment of tents and shelters over a very short period of time and Azraq was purpose built and pre-planned over a longer period. At present, both camps collectively host more than 133,000 occupants. Field visits were taken to both camps and the main issues and problems in the sheltering response were highlighted through focus group discussions with camp occupants and inspection of shelter habitats. This provided both subjective and objective research data sources. While every case has its own significance and deployment to meet humanitarian needs, there are some common requirements irrespective of geographical region. The results suggest that there is a gap in the suitability of the required habitat needs and what has been provided. It is recommended that the global international response and support could be improved in relation to the habitat form, construction type, layout, function and critically the cultural aspects. Services, health and hygiene are key elements to the shelter habitat provision. The study also identified the amendments to shelters undertaken by the beneficiaries providing insight into their key main requirements. The outcomes from this study could provide an important learning opportunity to develop improved habitat response for future shelters.

Keywords: culture, post-disaster, refugees, shelters

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Authors: Ziyi Zhou, Qiuxiao Chen, Shuang Wu

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Population diversification phenomena becomes quite common in villages located in China’s developed coastal area. Based on the analysis of the traditional rural society and its landscape characteristics, and in consideration of diversified landscape requirements due to the population diversification, with dual ideas of heritage and innovation, methods for rural landscape design were explored by taking Duxuao Village in Zhejiang Province of China as an example.

Keywords: rural landscape, population diversification, landscape design, urban management

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Authors: Hasan Al Bashar Abul Ulayee, AKM Saifun Nabi, MD Mesbah-Ul-Awal

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Alert system for disaster management is common now a day and can play a vital role reducing devastation and saves lives and costs. An alert in right time can save thousands of human life, help to take shelter, manage other assets including live stocks and above all, a right time alert will help to take preparation to face and early recovery of the situation. In a country like Bangladesh where populations is more than 170 million and always facing different types of natural calamities and disasters, an early right time alert is very effective and implementation of alert system is challenging. The challenge comes from the time constraint of alerting the huge number of population. The other method of existing disaster management pre alert is traditional, sequential and non-selective so efficiency is not good enough. This paper describes a way by which alert can be provided to maximum number of people within the short time bound using parallel processing as well as random selection of selective target audience.

Keywords: alert system, Bangladesh, disaster management, parallel processing, SMS

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Authors: Muhammad Noor Ul Ane, Dong-Soon Kim, Myron P. Zalucki

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Models can be useful to help understand population dynamics of insects under diverse environmental conditions and in developing strategies to manage pest species better. Adult longevity and fecundity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) were evaluated against a wide range of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 37.5ᵒC). The modified Sharpe and DeMichele model described adult aging rate and was used to estimate adult physiological age. Maximum fecundity of H. armigera was 973 egg/female at 25ᵒC decreasing to 72 eggs/female at 37.5ᵒC. The relationship between adult fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate were well described by a two-parameter Weibull function and sigmoid function, respectively. An oviposition model was developed using three temperature-dependent components: total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate. The oviposition model was validated against independent field data and described the field occurrence pattern of egg population of H. armigera very well. Our model should be a useful component for population modeling of H. armigera and can be independently used for the timing of sprays in management programs of this key pest species.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, life table, temperature-dependent adult development, temperature-dependent fecundity

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Authors: Davendra Singh Malik

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India is one of the mega-biodiversity countries in the world and contributing about 11.72% of global fish diversity. The Yamuna river is the longest tributary of Ganga river ecosystem, providing a natural habitat for existing fish diversity of Himalayan region of Indian subcontinent. The several hydropower dams and barrages have been constructed on different locations of major rivers in Garhwal region. These dams have caused a major ecological threat to change existing fresh water ecosystems altering water flows, interrupting ecological connectivity, fragmenting habitats and native riverine fish species. Mahseer fishes (Indian carp) of the genus Tor, are large cyprinids endemic to continental Asia popularly known as ‘Game or sport fishes’ have continued to be decimated by fragmented natural habitats due to damming the water flow in riverine system and categorized as threatened fishes of India. The fresh water fish diversity as 24 fish species were recorded from Yamuna river. The present fish catch data has revealed that mahseer fishes (Tor tor and Tor putitora) were contributed about 32.5 %, 25.6 % and 18.2 % in upper, middle and lower riverine stretches of Yaumna river. The length range of mahseer (360-450mm) recorded as dominant size of catch composition. The CPUE (catch per unit effort) of mahseer fishes also indicated about a sharp decline of fish biomass, changing growth pattern, sex ratio and maturity stages of fishes. Only 12.5 – 14.8 % mahseer female brooders have showed only maturity phases in breeding months. The fecundity of mature mahseer female fish brooders ranged from 2500-4500 no. of ova during breeding months. The present status of mahseer fishery has attributed to the over exploitative nature in Yamuna river. The mahseer population is shrinking continuously in down streams of Yamuna river due to cumulative effects of various ecological stress. Mahseer conservation programme have implemented as 'in situ fish conservation' for enhancement of viable population size of mahseer species and restore the genetic loss of mahseer fish germplasm in Yamuna river of Garhwal Himalayan region.

Keywords: conservation practice, population dynamics, tor fish species, Yamuna River

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Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

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The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

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Authors: Magno Enrique Mendoza Meza

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This paper deals with the comparison of three control techniques: the hysteresis on-off control (HyOOC), the hybrid on-off control (HOOC) and the simple Structured Treatment Interruptions (sSTI). These techniques are applied to the mathematical model developed by Kirschner and Webb. To compare these techniques we use a cost functional that minimize the wild-type virus population and the mutant virus population, but the main objective is to minimize the systemic cost of treatment and maximize levels of healthy CD4+ T cells. HyOOC, HOOC, and sSTI are applied to the drug therapies using a reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors; simulations show that these controls maintain the uninfected cells in a small, bounded neighborhood of a pre-specified level. The controller HyOOC and HOOC are designed by appropriate choice of virtual equilibrium points.

Keywords: virus dynamics, on-off control, hysteresis, multi-drug therapies

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Authors: Kamel Allaw, Jocelyne Adjizian Gerard, Makram Chehayeb, Nada Badaro Saliba

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In developing countries, such as Lebanon, the demographic data are hardly available due to the absence of the mechanization of population system. The aim of this study is to evaluate, using only remote sensing data, the correlations between the number of population and the characteristics of roads network (length of primary roads, length of secondary roads, total length of roads, density and percentage of roads and the number of intersections). In order to find the influence of the different factors on the demographic data, we studied the degree of correlation between each factor and the number of population. The results of this study have shown a strong correlation between the number of population and the density of roads and the number of intersections.

Keywords: population, road network, statistical correlations, remote sensing

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Authors: Katja Ignatieva, Patrick Wong

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We investigated the dynamics of high frequency energy prices, including crude oil and electricity prices. The returns of underlying quantities are modelled using various parametric models such as stochastic framework with jumps and stochastic volatility (SVCJ) as well as non-parametric alternatives, which are purely data driven and do not require specification of the drift or the diffusion coefficient function. Using different statistical criteria, we investigate the performance of considered parametric and nonparametric models in their ability to forecast price series and volatilities. Our models incorporate possible seasonalities in the underlying dynamics and utilise advanced estimation techniques for the dynamics of energy prices.

Keywords: stochastic volatility, affine jump-diffusion models, high frequency data, model specification, markov chain monte carlo

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Authors: Nashrawan Naser Taha, Andrew M. Cox

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In a multi-cultural learning context, where ties are weak and dynamic, combining qualitative with quantitative research methods may be more effective. Such a combination may also allow us to answer different types of question, such as about people’s perception of the network. In this study the use of observation, interviews and photos were explored as ways of enhancing data from social network questionnaires. Integrating all of these methods was found to enhance the quality of data collected and its accuracy, also providing a richer story of the network dynamics and the factors that shaped these changes over time.

Keywords: mixed methods, social network analysis, multi-cultural learning, social network dynamics

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Authors: Muneeba Butt

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One of the most important physical evidence which leaves suspects at the crime scene is footprints. Analysis of footprints, which can provide useful information for personal identification, is helpful in crime scene investigation. For the current study, 200 samples collected (144 male and 56 female) from Pakistani population with a consent form. The footprints were collected by using black ink with an ink pad. The entire samples were photographed, and then the magnifying glass was used for visualization of individual characteristics including detail of toes, humps, phalange mark, and flat foot cracks in footprint patterns. The descriptive results of individualizing characteristics features were presented in tabular form with respective frequency and percentage. In the result in the male population, the prevalence of tibialis type (T-type) is highest. In the female population, the prevalence of midularis type (M-type) is highest. Humps on the first toe are more found in the male population rather than other humps. In the female population, humps on the third toe are more found rather than other humps. In the male population, the prevalence of phalange mark by toe 1 is highest followed by toe 3, toe 5, toe 2, toe 4 and in female population the prevalence of phalange mark by toe 1 is highest followed by toe 5, 4, 3 and 2. Creases marks are found highest in male population as compared to the female population.

Keywords: foot prints, toes, humps, cracks

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Authors: Marinela Istrate, Ionel Muntele, Alexandru Bănică

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The authors propose the identification, analysis and prognosis of the quantitative and qualitative evolution of the elderly population in the functional urban areas. The present paper takes into account the analysis of some representative indicators (the weight of the elderly population, ageing index, dynamic index of economic ageing of productive population etc.) and the elaboration of an integrated indicator that would help differentiate the population ageing forms in the 48 functional urban areas that were defined based on demographic and social-economic criteria for all large and medium cities in Romania.

Keywords: ageing, demographic transition, functional urban areas, spatial resilience

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Authors: Abhishek Kumar Gupta

Abstract:

Atomistic Molecular Dynamics (MD) Simulations have been performed to study the effect of monovalent salt i.e. NaCl concentration (Cs) and chain degree of neutralization (f) on the structure and dynamics of anionic poly(methacrylic acid) (PMA) in dilute aqueous solutions. In the present study, the attention is to unveil the conformational structure, hydrogen-bonding, local polyion-counterion structure, h-bond dynamics, chain dynamics and thermodynamic enthalpy of solvation of a-PMA in dilute aqueous solutions as a function of salt concentration, Cs and f. The results have revealed that at low salt concentration, the conformational radius of gyration (Rg) increases and then decreases reaching a maximum in agreement with the reported light scattering experimental results. The Rg at f = 1 shows a continual decrease and acquire a plateau value at higher salt concentration in agreement with results obtained by light scattering experiments. The radial distribution functions between PMA, salt and water atoms has been computed with respect to atom and centre-of-mass to understand the intermolecular structure in detail. The results pertaining to PMA chain conformations and hydrogen bond autocorrelation function showcasing the h-bond dynamics will be presented. The results pertaining to chain dynamics will be presented. The results pertaining to counterion condensation on the PMA chain shows greater condensation of Na+ ions on to the carboxylate ions with increase in salt concentration. Moreover, the solvation enthalpy of the system as a function of salt concentration will be presented.

Keywords: conformations, molecular dynamics simulations, NaCl concentration, radial distribution functions

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Authors: Sabiu Abdullahi Yau

Abstract:

Nigeria is a high fertility country that experiences eye-popping population growth, with no end in sight. However, there is evidence that its large population inhibits government’s efforts in meeting the basic needs of the people. Moreover, past and present governments of Nigeria have been committing huge amount of financial resources to meet the basic infrastructural requirements capable of propelling growth and development. Despite the country’s large population and abundant natural resources, poverty, unemployment, rural-urban migration, deforestation and inadequate infrastructural facilities have been persistently on the increase resulting in consistent failure of government policies to impact positively on the economy. This paper, however, identifies and critically analyses the major development challenges caused by population growth in Nigeria using secondary data. The paper concludes that for the Nigeria’s economy to develop, all the identified challenges posed by rapid population growth must be promptly and squarely addressed.

Keywords: economic development, population, growth, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 293