Search results for: risk management failure

Authors: Beatrice Wamuyu Muchiri, Monika M. L. Dos Santos

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An increasingly recognised prevention approach for substance use entails reduction in risk factors and enhancement of promotive or protective factors in individuals and the environment surrounding them during their growth and development. However, in order to enhance the effectiveness of this approach, continuous study of risk aspects targeting different cultures, social groups and mixture of society has been recommended. This study evaluated the impact of potential risk and protective factors associated with family management and relations on adolescent substance abuse in South Africa. Exploratory analysis and cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression modelling was performed on the data while controlling for demographic and socio-economic characteristics on adolescent substance use. The most intensely used substances were tobacco, cannabis, cocaine, heroin and alcohol in decreasing order of use intensity. The specific protective or risk impact of family management or relations factors varied from substance to substance. Risk factors associated with demographic and socio-economic factors included being male, younger age, being in lower education grades, coloured ethnicity, adolescents from divorced parents and unemployed or fully employed mothers. Significant family relations risk and protective factors against substance use were classified as either family functioning and conflict or family bonding and support. Several family management factors, categorised as parental monitoring, discipline, behavioural control and rewards, demonstrated either risk or protective effect on adolescent substance use. Some factors had either interactive risk or protective impact on substance use or lost significance when analysed jointly with other factors such as controlled variables. Interaction amongst risk or protective factors as well as the type of substance should be considered when further considering interventions based on these risk or protective factors. Studies in other geographical regions, institutions and with better gender balance are recommended to improve upon the representativeness of the results. Several other considerations to be made when formulating interventions, the shortcomings of this study and possible improvements as well as future studies are also suggested.

Keywords: risk factors, protective factors, substance use, adolescents

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Authors: Vijay Vir Singh

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This work is focused studying the Linux operating system connected in a LAN (local area network). The STAR topology (to be called subsystem-1) and BUS topology (to be called subsystem-2) are taken into account, which are placed at two different locations and connected to a server through a hub. In the both topologies BUS topology and STAR topology, we have assumed n clients. The system has two types of failures i.e. partial failure and complete failure. Further, the partial failure has been categorized as minor and major partial failure. It is assumed that the minor partial failure degrades the sub-systems and the major partial failure make the subsystem break down mode. The system may completely fail due to failure of server hacking and blocking etc. The system is studied using supplementary variable technique and Laplace transform by using different types of failure and two types of repair. The various measures of reliability for example, availability of system, reliability of system, MTTF, profit function for different parametric values have been discussed.

Keywords: star topology, bus topology, blocking, hacking, Linux operating system, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, supplementary variable

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Authors: Ormal Lishi

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This research presents a computationally efficient probabilistic method to assess the performance of compartmentation walls with similar Fire Resistance Levels (FRL) but varying complexity. Specifically, a masonry brick wall and a light-steel framed (LSF) wall with comparable insulation performance are analyzed. A Monte Carlo technique, employing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is utilized to quantify uncertainties and determine the probability of failure for both walls exposed to standard and parametric fires, following ISO 834 and Eurocodes guidelines. Results show that the probability of failure for the brick masonry wall under standard fire exposure is estimated at 4.8%, while the LSF wall is 7.6%. These probabilities decrease to 0.4% and 4.8%, respectively, when subjected to parametric fires. Notably, the complex LSF wall exhibits higher variability in predicting time to failure for specific criteria compared to the less complex brick wall, especially at higher temperatures. The proposed approach highlights the need for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to accurately evaluate the reliability and safety levels of complex designs.

Keywords: design complexity, probability of failure, monte carlo analysis, compartmentation walls, insulation

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Authors: Zidane Abderrezzaq

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In contrast to recent successful developments in macro monetary policies, the modelling, measurement and management of systemic financial stability has remained problematical. Indeed, the focus of most effort has been on improving individual, rather than systemic, bank risk management; the Basel II objective has been to bring regulatory bank capital into line with the (sophisticated) banks’ assessment of their own economic capital. Even at the individual bank level there are concerns over appropriate diversification allowances, differing objectives of banks and regulators, the need for a buffer over regulatory minima, and the distinction between expected and unexpected losses (EL and UL). At the systemic level the quite complex and prescriptive content of Basel II raises dangers of ‘endogenous risk’ and procyclicality. Simulations suggest that this latter could be a serious problem. In an extension to the main analysis we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tiering) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out.

Keywords: systemic stability, financial regulation, credit risk, systemic risk

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Authors: Adel Ali Elshaibani

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Risk management indicators augment the reporting infrastructure, particularly for the board and senior management, to identify, monitor, and manage risks. This enhancement facilitates improved decision-making throughout the banking organization. Decision tree analysis is a tool that visually outlines potential outcomes, costs, and consequences of complex decisions. It is particularly beneficial for analyzing quantitative data and making decisions based on numerical values. By calculating the expected value of each outcome, decision tree analysis can help assess the best course of action. In the context of banking, decision tree analysis can assist lenders in evaluating a customer’s creditworthiness, thereby preventing losses. However, applying these tools in developing countries may face several limitations, such as data availability, lack of technological infrastructure and resources, lack of skilled professionals, cultural factors, and cost. Moreover, decision trees can create overly complex models that do not generalize well to new data, known as overfitting. They can also be sensitive to small changes in the data, which can result in different tree structures and can become computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. In conclusion, while risk management indicators and decision tree analysis are beneficial for decision-making in banks, their effectiveness is contingent upon how they are implemented and utilized by the board of directors, especially in the context of developing countries. It’s important to consider these limitations when planning to implement these tools in developing countries.

Keywords: risk management indicators, decision tree analysis, developing countries, board of directors, bank performance, risk management strategy, banking institutions

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upper-extremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, risk identification

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Authors: Marcelo Jesus Kato Avila, Joao Da Costa Pantoja

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Differential settlement of foundations is a serious pathology in buildings that put at risk lives and property. A common reason for the occurrence of this specific pathology in central Brazil is the presence of collapsible clay, a typical soil in the region. In this study, the foundation of a condemned building erected above this soil is analyzed. The aim is to prevent problems in new constructions, to predict which buildings may be subjected to damages, and to make possible a more precise treatment in less advanced differential settlements observed in the buildings of the vicinity, which includes a hospital, a Military School, an indoor sporting arena, the Police Academy, and the Military Police Headquarters. The methodology consists of visual inspection, photographic report of the main pathologies, analysis of the existing foundations, determination of the soil properties, the study of the cracking level and assessment of structural failure risk of the building. The findings show that the presence of water weaken the soil structure on which the foundation rest, being the main cause of the pathologic settlement, indicating that even in a one store building it was necessary to consider deeper digging, other categories of foundations, and more elaborated and detailed foundation plans when the soil presents this behavior.

Keywords: building cracks, collapsible clay, differential settlement, structural failure risk

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Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: cause of failure, linear degradation path, reliability function, expectation-maximization algorithm, intensity, masked data

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Authors: Xin-Yan Ji

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The historical failures data of the spacecraft is very useful to improve the spacecraft design and the test philosophies and reduce the spacecraft flight risk. A study of spacecraft failures data was performed, which is the most comprehensive statistics of spacecrafts in China. 2593 on-orbit failures data and 1298 ground data that occurred on 150 spacecraft launched from 2000 to 2016 were identified and collected, which covered the navigation satellites, communication satellites, remote sensing deep space exploration manned spaceflight platforms. In this paper, the failures were analyzed to compare different spacecraft subsystem and estimate their impact on the mission, then the development of spacecraft in China was evaluated from design, software, workmanship, management, parts, and materials. Finally, the lessons learned from the past years show that electrical and mechanical failures are responsible for the largest parts, and the key solution to reduce in-orbit failures is improving design technology, enough redundancy, adequate space environment protection measures, and adequate ground testing.

Keywords: spacecraft anomalies, anomalies mechanism, failure cause, spacecraft testing

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Authors: Hernán A. Perez, Luis J. Armando, Néstor H. García

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Background and aims Cardiovascular disease rates are very high in patients with renal failure (CRF), but the underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not explain the increased risk, and observational studies have observed paradoxical or absent associations between classical risk factors and mortality in dialysis patients. A large randomized controlled trial, the 4D Study, the AURORA and the ALERT study found that statin therapy in CRF do not reduce cardiovascular events. These results may be the results of ‘accelerated atherosclerosis’ observed on these patients. The objective of this study was to investigate if carotid total plaque area (TPA), a measure of carotid plaque burden growth is increased at progressively lower creatinine clearance in patients with CRF. We studied a cohort of patients with CRF not on dialysis, reasoning that risk factor associations might be more easily discerned before end stage renal disease. Methods: The Blossom DMO Argentina ethics committee approved the study and informed consent from each participant was obtained. We performed a cohort study in 412 patients with Stage 1, 2 and 3 CRF. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained. TPA was determined using bilateral carotid ultrasonography. Modification of Diet in Renal Disease estimation formula was used to determine renal function. ANOVA was used when appropriate. Results: Stage 1 CRF group (n= 16, 43±2yo) had a blood pressure of 123±2/78±2 mmHg, BMI 30±1, LDL col 145±10 mg/dl, HbA1c 5.8±0.4% and had the lowest TPA 25.8±6.9 mm2. Stage 2 CRF (n=231, 50±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 132±1/81±1 mmHg, LDL col 125±2 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 48±10mm2 ( p< 0.05 vs CRF stage 1) while Stage 3 CRF (n=165, 59±1 yo) had a blood pressure of 134±1/81±1, LDL col 125±3 mg/dl, HbA1c 6±0.1% and TPA 71±6mm2 (p < 0.05 vs CRF stage 1 and 2). Conclusion: Our data indicate that TPA increases along the renal function deterioration, and it is not related with the LDL cholesterol and triglycerides levels. We suggest that mechanisms other than the classics are responsible for the observed excess of cardiovascular disease in CKD patients and finally, determination of total plaque area should be used to measure effects of antiatherosclerotic therapy.

Keywords: hypertension, chronic renal failure, atherosclerosis, cholesterol

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Magdalena Meusburger, Caroline Hofer

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The advancement of woman entrepreneurship in the last decade has been a vital driver for social and economic development. Despite the positive evolution, women entrepreneurs are still underrepresented in entrepreneurial ecosystems. Fear-of-failure is a major factor affecting their entrepreneurial activity. This survey-based research focuses on aspiring and established entrepreneurial women in Austria and in the USA. It explores and compares the extent to which fear-of-failure influences their self-employment and their aspirations to become self-employed.

Keywords: entrepreneurial ecosystems, fear-of-failure, female entrepreneurship, woman entrepreneurship

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Authors: Gizem Yilmazel

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Turkiye has been facing failure in English language teaching despite long years of English studies during mandatory education. A body of research studying the reasons of the failure in the literature exists yet the problem has not been solved and English language education is still a phenomenon in Turkiye. The failure is mostly attributed to the methods used in English education (Grammar Translation Method), lack of exposure to the language, inability to practice the language, financial difficulties, the belief of abroad experience necessity, national examinations, and conservative institutional policies. The findings are evident and tangible yet the problem persists. This paper aims to bring the issue a critical perspective and discuss the reasons of the failure.

Keywords: EFL, failure, critical perspective, language education

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Authors: Menoka Bal, David Bryde

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Sustainability in supply chain has become a topic of great interest and is linked to the assumption that a more sustainable the supply chain is the more the supply chain can perform better. The aim of this paper is to identify the different key aspects of the sustainable supply chain management. This paper will also identify the practices that are required to fulfill the demands of sustainability and, therefore, contributing to improve the sustainability performance. As part of this, the authors will identify how these different practices of implementing to achieve Sustainability in Supply Chain. This paper is conceptual in nature. This paper identifies some of the key categories which are of high importance for the sustainable management of supply chains. These key categories are: Managing the Supply Chain Risk, Improving the Supply Chain Performance, Managing the Supply Chain Value, Making the Supply Chain Leaner, Managing the Supply Chain Relationship. Through in-depth analysis, this paper aims to develop a theory of integrated management process that is most appropriate for sustainability assessment in supply chain.

Keywords: sustainability, risk management, value management, project performance, supply chain management

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Authors: Induja R. Nimma, Anand Reddy Maligireddy, Artur Schneider, Melissa Lyle

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Background: Although heart failure is one of the most common causes of hospitalization in adult patients, there is limited knowledge on outcomes following initial hospitalization for COVID-19 with heart failure (HCF-19). We felt it pertinent to analyze 30-day readmission causes and outcomes among patients with HCF-19 using the United States using real-world big data via the National readmission database. Objective: The aim is to describe the rate and causes of readmissions and morbidity of heart failure with coinciding COVID-19 (HFC-19) in the United States, using the 2020 National Readmission Database (NRD). Methods: A descriptive, retrospective study was conducted on the 2020 NRD, a nationally representative sample of all US hospitalizations. Adult (>18 years) inpatient admissions with COVID-19 with HF and readmissions in 30 days were selected based on the International Classification of Diseases-Tenth Revision, Procedure Code. Results: In 2020, 2,60,372 adult patients were hospitalized with COVID-19 and HF. The median age was 74 (IQR: 64-83), and 47% were female. The median length of stay was 7(4-13) days, and the total cost of stay was 62,025 (31,956 – 130,670) United States dollars, respectively. Among the index hospital admissions, 61,527 (23.6%) died, and 22,794 (11.5%) were readmitted within 30 days. The median age of patients readmitted in 30 days was 73 (63-82), 45% were female, and 1,962 (16%) died. The most common principal diagnosis for readmission in these patients was COVID-19= 34.8%, Sepsis= 16.5%, HF = 7.1%, AKI = 2.2%, respiratory failure with hypoxia =1.7%, and Pneumonia = 1%. Conclusion: The rate of readmission in patients with heart failure exacerbations is increasing yearly. COVID-19 was observed to be the most common principal diagnosis in patients readmitted within 30 days. Complicated hypertension, chronic pulmonary disease, complicated diabetes, renal failure, alcohol use, drug use, and peripheral vascular disorders are risk factors associated with readmission. Familiarity with the most common causes and predictors for readmission helps guide the development of initiatives to minimize adverse outcomes and the cost of medical care.

Keywords: Covid-19, heart failure, national readmission database, readmission outcomes

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Authors: Sayali Vyas, Atharva Desai, Shreyas Badave, Apurv Kulkarni, B. Rajiv

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The Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is an efficient evaluation technique to identify potential failures in products, processes, and services. FMEA is designed to identify and prioritize failure modes. It proves to be a useful method for identifying and correcting possible failures at its earliest possible level so that one can avoid consequences of poor performance. In this paper, FMEA tool is used in detection of failures of various components of heat exchanger cycle and to identify critical failures of the components which may hamper the system’s performance. Further, a detailed Pareto analysis is done to find out the most critical components of the cycle, the causes of its failures, and possible recommended actions. This paper can be used as a checklist which will help in maintainability of the system.

Keywords: FMEA, heat exchanger cycle, Ishikawa diagram, pareto analysis, RPN (Risk Priority Number)

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Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

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This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring

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Authors: Sarah Kalaouze, Maxine Iannucelli, Kristen Dunfield

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Children’s implicit beliefs regarding intelligence (i.e., intelligence mindsets) influence their motivation, perseverance, and success. Previous research suggests that the way parents perceive failure influences the development of their child’s intelligence mindsets. We invited 151 children-parent dyads (Age= 5–6 years) to complete a series of difficult puzzles over zoom. We assessed parents’ intelligence and failure mindsets using questionnaires and recorded parents’ person/performance-oriented (e.g., “you are smart” or "you were almost able to complete that one) and process-oriented (e.g., “you are trying really hard” or "maybe if you place the bigger pieces first") failure feedback. We were interested in observing the relation between parental mindsets and the type of feedback provided. We found that parents’ intelligence mindsets were not predictive of the feedback they provided children. Failure mindsets, on the other hand, were predictive of failure feedback. Parents who view failure-as-debilitating provided more person-oriented feedback, focusing on performance and personal ability. Whereas parents who view failure-as-enhancing provided process-oriented feedback, focusing on effort and strategies. Taken all together, our results allow us to determine that although parents might already have a growth intelligence mindset, they don’t necessarily have a failure-as-enhancing mindset. Parents adopting a failure-as-enhancing mindset would influence their children to view failure as a learning opportunity, further promoting practice, effort, and perseverance during challenging tasks. The focus placed on a child’s learning, rather than their performance, encourages them to perceive intelligence as malleable (growth mindset) rather than fix (fixed mindset). This implies that parents should not only hold a growth mindset but thoroughly understand their role in the transmission of intelligence beliefs.

Keywords: mindset(s), failure, intelligence, parental feedback, parents

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Authors: Bhupinder Kaur, O. P. Pandey

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An automobile industry is using variety of materials for better comfort and utility. The present work describes the details of failure analysis done for windshield glass of a four-wheeler class. The failure occurred in two different models of the heavy duty class of four wheelers, which analysed separately. The company reported that the failure has occurred only in their rear windshield when vehicles parked under shade for several days. These glasses were characterised by dilatometer, differential thermal analyzer, and X-ray diffraction. The glasses were further investigated under scanning electron microscope with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and X-ray dot mapping. The microstructural analysis of the glasses done at the surface as well as at the fractured area indicates that carbon as an impurity got segregated as banded structure throughout the glass. Since carbon absorbs higher heat, it causes thermal mismatch to the entire glass system, and glass shattered down. In this work, the details of sequential analysis done to predict the cause of failure are present.

Keywords: failure, windshield, thermal mismatch, carbon

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Authors: Nor Azlina A. Rahman, Jamaliah Said, Salwana Hassan

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Prompt changes in global business environment, such as passionate competition, managerial/operational, changing governmental regulation and innovation in technology have significant impacts on the organizations. At present, global business environment demands for more proactive institutions on microfinance to provide an opportunity for the business success. Microfinance providers in Malaysia still accelerate its activities of funding by cash and cheque. These institutions are at high risk as the paper-based system is deemed to be slow and prone to human error, as well as requiring a major annual reconciliation process. The global transformation of financial services, growing involvement of technology, innovation and new business activities had progressively made risk management profile to be more subjective and diversified. The persistent, complex and dynamic nature of risk management activities in the institutions arise due to highly automated advancements of technology. This may thus manifest in a variety of ways throughout the financial services sector. This study seeks out to examine current operational risks management being experienced by microfinance providers in Malaysia; investigate the process of current practices on facilitator control factor mechanisms, and explore how the adoption of technology, innovation and use of management accounting practices would affect the risk management process of operation system in microfinance providers in Malaysia. A case study method was employed in this study. The case study also need to find that the vital past role of management accounting will be used for mitigation of risk management activities towards accountability as an information or guideline to microfinance provider. An empirical element obtainable with qualitative method is needed in this study, where multipart and in-depth information are essential to understand the issues of these institution phenomena. This study is expected to propose a theoretical model for implementation of technology, innovation and management accounting practices into the system of operation to improve internal control and subsequently lead to mitigation of risk management activities among microfinance providers to be more successful.

Keywords: microfinance, accountability, operational risks, management accounting practices

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Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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Authors: Liane Marcia Freitas Silva, Fernando Augusto Silva Marins, Maria Silene Alexandre Leite

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The adoption of a network structure, like in the supply chains, favors the increase of dependence between companies and, by consequence, their vulnerability. Environment disasters, sociopolitical and economical events, and the dynamics of supply chains elevate the uncertainty of their operation, favoring the occurrence of events that can generate break up in the operations and other undesired consequences. Thus, supply chains are exposed to various risks that can influence the profitability of companies involved, and there are several previous studies that have proposed risk classification models in order to categorize the risks and to manage them. The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss thirty of these risk classification models by means a theoretical survey. The research method adopted for analyzing and discussion includes three phases: The identification of the types of risks proposed in each one of the thirty models, the grouping of them considering equivalent concepts associated to their definitions, and, the analysis of these risks groups, evaluating their similarities and differences. After these analyses, it was possible to conclude that, in fact, there is more than thirty risks types identified in the literature of Supply Chains, but some of them are identical despite of be used distinct terms to characterize them, because different criteria for risk classification are adopted by researchers. In short, it is observed that some types of risks are identified as risk source for supply chains, such as, demand risk, environmental risk and safety risk. On the other hand, other types of risks are identified by the consequences that they can generate for the supply chains, such as, the reputation risk, the asset depreciation risk and the competitive risk. These results are consequence of the disagreements between researchers on risk classification, mainly about what is risk event and about what is the consequence of risk occurrence. An additional study is in developing in order to clarify how the risks can be generated, and which are the characteristics of the components in a Supply Chain that leads to occurrence of risk.

Keywords: sisks classification, survey, supply chain management, theoretical discussion

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Authors: Eva Kirzner

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Based on outcome studies published over the past two decades, in 2018, the ACC/AHA published new guidelines for the management of hypercholesterolemia that incorporate the use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning as a decision tool for ascertaining which patients may benefit from statin therapy. This use is based on the recognition that the absence of calcium on CAC scanning (i.e., a CAC score of zero) usually signifies the absence of significant atherosclerotic deposits in the coronary arteries. Specifically, in patients with a high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), initiation of statin therapy is generally recommended to decrease ASCVD risk. However, among patients with intermediate ASCVD risk, the need for statin therapy is less certain. However, there is a need for new outcome studies that provide evidence that the management of hypercholesterolemia based on these new ACC/AHA recommendations is safe for patients. Based on a Pub-Med and Google Scholar literature search, four relevant population-based or patient-based cohort studies that studied the relationship between CAC scanning, risk assessment or mortality, and statin therapy that were published between 2017 and 2021 were identified (see references). In each of these studies, patients were assessed for their baseline risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) using the Pooled Cohorts Equation (PCE), an ACC/AHA calculator for determining patient risk based on assessment of patient age, gender, ethnicity, and coronary artery disease risk factors. The combined findings of these four studies provided concordant evidence that a zero CAC score defines patients who remain at low clinical risk despite the non-use of statin therapy. Thus, these new studies confirm the use of CAC scanning as a safe tool for reducing the potential overuse of statin therapy among patients with zero CAC scores. Incorporating these new data suggest the following best practice: (1) ascertain ASCVD risk according to the PCE in all patients; (2) following an initial attempt trial to lower ASCVD risk with optimal diet among patients with elevated ASCVD risk, initiate statin therapy for patients who have a high ASCVD risk score; (3) if the ASCVD score is intermediate, refer patients for CAC scanning; and (4) and if the CAC score is zero among the intermediate risk ASCVD patients, statin therapy can be safely withheld despite the presence of an elevated serum cholesterol level.

Keywords: cholesterol, cardiovascular disease, statin therapy, coronary calcium

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Alisawi Alaa T., Collins P. E. F.

Abstract:

The analysis and evaluation of slope stability and landslide hazards are landslide hazards are critically important in civil engineering projects and broader considerations of safety. The level of slope stability risk should be identified due to its significant and direct financial and safety effects. Slope stability hazard analysis is performed considering static and/or dynamic loading circumstances. To reduce and/or prevent the failure hazard caused by landslides, a sophisticated and practical hazard analysis method using advanced constitutive modeling should be developed and linked to an effective solution that corresponds to the specific type of slope stability and landslides failure risk. Previous studies on slope stability analysis methods identify the failure mechanism and its corresponding solution. The commonly used approaches include used approaches include limit equilibrium methods, empirical approaches for rock slopes (e.g., slope mass rating and Q-slope), finite element or finite difference methods, and district element codes. This study presents an overview and evaluation of these analysis techniques. Contemporary source materials are used to examine these various methods on the basis of hypotheses, the factor of safety estimation, soil types, load conditions, and analysis conditions and limitations. Limit equilibrium methods play a key role in assessing the level of slope stability hazard. The slope stability safety level can be defined by identifying the equilibrium of the shear stress and shear strength. The slope is considered stable when the movement resistance forces are greater than those that drive the movement with a factor of safety (ratio of the resistance of the resistance of the driving forces) that is greater than 1.00. However, popular and practical methods, including limit equilibrium approaches, are not effective when the slope experiences complex failure mechanisms, such as progressive failure, liquefaction, internal deformation, or creep. The present study represents the first episode of an ongoing project that involves the identification of the types of landslides hazards, assessment of the level of slope stability hazard, development of a sophisticated and practical hazard analysis method, linkage of the failure type of specific landslides conditions to the appropriate solution and application of an advanced computational method for mapping the slope stability properties in the United Kingdom, and elsewhere through geographical information system (GIS) and inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation(IDW) technique. This study investigates and assesses the different assesses the different analysis and solution techniques to enhance the knowledge on the mechanism of slope stability and landslides hazard analysis and determine the available solutions for each potential landslide failure risk.

Keywords: slope stability, finite element analysis, hazard analysis, landslides hazard

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Authors: Isabela Vieira, Leonor Carvalho Garcez, Adalmiro Pereira, Tânia Teixeira

Abstract:

In the present work, we aim to analyse IKEA as a company, by focusing on its development, financial analysis and future benchmarks, as well as applying some of the knowledge learned in class, namely hedging and other financial risk mitigation solutions, to understand how IKEA navigates and protects itself from risk. The decision that led us to choose IKEA for our casework has to do with the long history of the company since the 1940s and its high internationalization in 63 different markets. The company also has clear financial reports which aided us in the making of the present essay and naturally, was a factor that contributed to our decision.

Keywords: Ikea, financial risk, risk management, hedge

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Authors: Dyana Zainudin, Atta Ur-Rahman, Thaier Hamed

Abstract:

This paper explains about human nature concept as to understand the significance of information security in employees’ mentality including leaders in an organisation. By studying on a theory concept of the latest Von Solms fourth waves, information security governance basically refers to the concept of a set of methods, techniques and tools that responsible for protecting resources of a computer system to ensure service availability, confidentiality and integrity of information. However, today’s information security dilemma relates to the acceptance of employees mentality. The major causes are a lack of communication and commitment. These types of management in an organisation are labelled as immoral/amoral management which effects on information security compliance. A recovery action is taken based on ‘learn a lesson from incident events’ rather than prevention. Therefore, the paper critically analysed the Von Solms fourth waves’ theory with current human events and its correlation by studying secondary data and also from qualitative analysis among employees in public sectors. ‘Three-dimensions to failure’ of information security dilemma are explained as deny, don’t know and don’t care. These three-dimensions are the most common vulnerable behaviour owned by employees. Therefore, by avoiding the three-dimensions to failure may improve the vulnerable behaviour of employees which is often related to immoral/amoral management.

Keywords: information security management system, information security behaviour, information security governance, information security culture

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Authors: Rebecca Dunne, Cormac Small, Geraldine O'Boyle, Nazir Ibrahim, Anisha

Abstract:

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among men, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. It is estimated that approximately 12% of men will develop prostate cancer during their lifetime. Patients with intermediate, high risk, and very-high risk prostate cancer often undergo a combination of radiation treatments. These treatments include external beam radiotherapy with a low-dose rate or high-dose rate brachytherapy boost, often with concomitant androgen deprivation therapy. The literature on follow-up of patients that receive brachytherapy is scarce, particularly follow-up of patients that undergo high-dose rate brachytherapy. This retrospective study aims to investigate the biochemical failure and toxicities associated with triple therapy and external beam radiotherapy given in combination with brachytherapy. Reported toxicities and prostate specific antigen (PSA) were retrospectively evaluated in eighty patients that previously underwent external beam radiotherapy with a low-dose rate or high dose-rate brachytherapy boost. The severity of toxicities were correlated with intra-operative dosing during brachytherapy on ultrasound and CT scan. The results of this study will provide further information for clinicians and patients when considering treatment options.

Keywords: toxicities, combination, brachytherapy, intra-operative dosing, biochemical failure

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Authors: S. Masud, J. Merson, D. F. Robinson

Abstract:

The management of environmental resources requires engagement of a range of stakeholders including public/private agencies and different community groups to implement sustainable conservation practices. The challenge which is often ignored is the analysis of agencies involved and their power relations. One of the barriers identified is the difference in risk perceptions among the agencies involved that leads to disjointed efforts of assessing and managing risks. Wood et al 2012, explains that it is important to have an integrated approach to risk management where decision makers address stakeholder perspectives. This is critical for an effective risk management policy. This abstract is part of a PhD research that looks into barriers to flood management under a changing climate and intends to identify bottlenecks that create maladaptation. Experiences are drawn from international practices in the UK and examined in the context of Australia through exploring the flood governance in a highly flood-prone region in Australia: the Hawkesbury Ne-pean catchment as a case study. In this research study several aspects of governance and management are explored: (i) the complexities created by the way different agencies are involved in assessing flood risks (ii) different perceptions on acceptable flood risk level; (iii) perceptions on community engagement in defining acceptable flood risk level; (iv) Views on a holistic flood risk management approach; and, (v) challenges of centralised information system. The study concludes that the complexity of managing a large catchment is exacerbated by the difference in the way professionals perceive the problem. This has led to: (a) different standards for acceptable risks; (b) inconsistent attempt to set-up a regional scale flood management plan beyond the jurisdictional boundaries: (c) absence of a regional scale agency with license to share and update information (d) Lack of forums for dialogue with insurance companies to ensure an integrated approach to flood management. The research takes the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment as case example and draws from literary evidence from around the world. In addition, conclusions were extrapolated from eighteen semi-structured interviews from agencies involved in flood risk management in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment of NSW, Australia. The outcome of this research is to provide a better understanding of complexity in assessing risks against a rapidly changing climate and contribute towards developing effective risk communication strategies thus enabling better management of floods and achieving increased level of support from insurance companies, real-estate agencies, state and regional risk managers and the affected communities.

Keywords: adaptive governance, flood management, flood risk communication, stakeholder risk perceptions

Procedia PDF Downloads 280