Search results for: resilience curve

Authors: Ignatius Madu

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The study aims at assessing the environmental and socioeconomic determinants of climate change resilience in rural Nigeria. This is necessary because researches and development efforts on building climate change resilience of rural areas in developing countries are usually made without the knowledge of the impacts of the inherent rural characteristics that determine resilient capacities of the households. This has, in many cases, led to costly mistakes, delayed responses, inaccurate outcomes, and other difficulties. Consequently, this assessment becomes crucial not only to policymakers and people living in risk-prone environments in rural areas but also to fill the research gap. To achieve the aim, secondary data were obtained from the Annual Abstract of Statistics 2017, LSMS-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture and General Household Survey Panel 2015/2016, and National Agriculture Sample Survey (NASS), 2010/2011.Resilience was calculated by weighting and adding the adaptive, absorptive and anticipatory measures of households variables aggregated at state levels and then regressed against rural environmental and socioeconomic characteristics influencing it. From the regression, the coefficients of the variables were used to compute the impacts of the variables using the Stochastic Regression of Impacts on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) Model. The results showed that the northern States are generally low in resilient indices and are impacted less by the development indicators. The major determining factors are percentage of non-poor, environmental protection, road transport development, landholding, agricultural input, population density, dependency ratio (inverse), household asserts, education and maternal care. The paper concludes that any effort to a successful resilient building in rural areas of the country should first address these key factors that enhance rural development and wellbeing since it is better to take action before shocks take place.

Keywords: climate change resilience; spatial impacts; STIRPAT model; Nigeria

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Authors: E. K. Naseela, B. M. Dodamani, Chaithra Chandran

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The GIS and remote sensing techniques facilitate accurate estimation of surface runoff from watershed. In the present study an attempt has been made to evaluate the applicability of Natural Resources Service Curve Number method using GIS and Remote sensing technique in the upper Krishna basin (69,425 Sq.km). Landsat 7 (with resolution 30 m) satellite data for the year 2012 has been used for the preparation of land use land cover (LU/LC) map. The hydrologic soil group is mapped using GIS platform. The weighted curve numbers (CN) for all the 5 subcatchments calculated on the basis of LU/LC type and hydrologic soil class in the area by considering antecedent moisture condition. Monthly rainfall data was available for 58 raingauge stations. Overlay technique is adopted for generating weighted curve number. Results of the study show that land use changes determined from satellite images are useful in studying the runoff response of the basin. The results showed that there is no significant difference between observed and estimated runoff depths. For each subcatchment, statistically positive correlations were detected between observed and estimated runoff depth (0.6Keywords: curve number, GIS, remote sensing, runoff

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Authors: Haji Mohammad Zulfan Farhi Bin Haji Sulaini, Mohammad Azeezudde’en Bin Mohd Ismaon

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The demands placed on military athletes extend beyond physical prowess to encompass cognitive resilience in high-stress environments. This study investigates the effects of resilience training on the cognitive performance of military athletes, shedding light on the potential benefits and implications for optimizing their overall readiness. In a rapidly evolving global landscape, armed forces worldwide are recognizing the importance of cognitive resilience alongside physical fitness. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, incorporating quantitative cognitive assessments and qualitative data from military athletes undergoing resilience training programs. Cognitive performance is evaluated through a battery of tests, including measures of memory, attention, decision-making, and reaction time. The participants, drawn from various branches of the military, are divided into experimental and control groups. The experimental group undergoes a comprehensive resilience training program, while the control group receives traditional physical training without a specific focus on resilience. The initial findings indicate a substantial improvement in cognitive performance among military athletes who have undergone resilience training. These improvements are particularly evident in domains such as attention and decision-making. The experimental group demonstrated enhanced situational awareness, quicker problem-solving abilities, and increased adaptability in high-stress scenarios. These results suggest that resilience training not only bolsters mental toughness but also positively impacts cognitive skills critical to military operations. In addition to quantitative assessments, qualitative data is collected through interviews and surveys to gain insights into the subjective experiences of military athletes. Preliminary analysis of these narratives reveals that participants in the resilience training program report higher levels of self-confidence, emotional regulation, and an improved ability to manage stress. These psychological attributes contribute to their enhanced cognitive performance and overall readiness. Moreover, this study explores the potential long-term benefits of resilience training. By tracking participants over an extended period, we aim to assess the durability of cognitive improvements and their effects on overall mission success. Early results suggest that resilience training may serve as a protective factor against the detrimental effects of prolonged exposure to stressors, potentially reducing the risk of burnout and psychological trauma among military athletes. This research has significant implications for military organizations seeking to optimize the performance and well-being of their personnel. The findings suggest that integrating resilience training into the training regimen of military athletes can lead to a more resilient and cognitively capable force. This, in turn, may enhance mission success, reduce the risk of injuries, and improve the overall effectiveness of military operations. In conclusion, this study provides compelling evidence that resilience training positively impacts the cognitive performance of military athletes. The preliminary results indicate improvements in attention, decision-making, and adaptability, as well as increased psychological resilience. As the study progresses and incorporates long-term follow-ups, it is expected to provide valuable insights into the enduring effects of resilience training on the cognitive readiness of military athletes, contributing to the ongoing efforts to optimize military personnel's physical and mental capabilities in the face of ever-evolving challenges.

Keywords: military athletes, cognitive performance, resilience training, cognitive enhancement program

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Authors: Sajida Saqira, Anthony Chariton, Grant C. Hose

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The Anthropocene has seen dramatic environmental changes which are affecting every ecosystem on earth. Freshwater ecosystems are particularly vulnerable as they are at risk from the many activities that go on and contaminants that are released in catchments. They are thus subject to many stressors simultaneously. Freshwater ecosystems respond to stress at all levels of biological organization, from subcellular to community structure and ecosystem functioning. The aim of this study was to examine the resistance and resilience of freshwater ecosystems to multiple stressors. Here we explored the individual and combined effects of copper as a chemical stressor and common carp (Cyprinus carpio) as a biological stressor on the health, functioning, and recovery of outdoor experimental pond ecosystems in a long-term, controlled, factorial experiment. Primary productivity, decomposition, and water and sediment quality were analysed at regular intervals for one year to understand the health and functioning of the ecosystems. Changes to benthic biota were quantified using DNA-based and traditional microscopy-based counts of invertebrates. Carp were added to the ponds to copper contaminated sediments (with controls) to explore the combined effects of copper and carp and removed after six months to explore the resilience and recovery of the system. The outcomes of this study will advance our understanding of the impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater ecosystems, and the resilience of these systems to copper and C. carpio, which are both globally significant stressors in freshwater systems.

Keywords: carp, copper, ecosystem health, freshwater ecosystem, multiple stressors

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Authors: Suzana Ramli, Wardah Tahir

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Estimation of surface runoff depth is a vital part in any rainfall-runoff modeling. It leads to stream flow calculation and later predicts flood occurrences. GIS (Geographic Information System) is an advanced and opposite tool used in simulating hydrological model due to its realistic application on topography. The paper discusses on calculation of surface runoff depth for two selected events by using GIS with Curve Number method for Upper Klang River basin. GIS enables maps intersection between soil type and land use that later produces curve number map. The results show good correlation between simulated and observed values with more than 0.7 of R2. Acceptable performance of statistical measurements namely mean error, absolute mean error, RMSE, and bias are also deduced in the paper.

Keywords: surface runoff, geographic information system, curve number method, environment

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Authors: Aran Dezhban, Hooshang Dolatshahi Pirooz

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The phenomenon of corrosion, especially in the Persian Gulf region, is the main cause of the deterioration of offshore platforms, due to the high corrosion of its water. This phenomenon occurs mostly in the area of water spraying, threatening the members of the first floor of the jacket, legs, and piles in this area. In the current study, the effect of bracing arrangement on the Capacity Curve and Reserve Strength Ratio of Fixed-Type Offshore Platforms is investigated. In order to continue the operation of the platform, two modes of robust and damaged structures are considered, while checking the adequacy of the platform capacity based on the allowable values of API RP-2SIM regulations. The platform in question is located in the Persian Gulf, which is modeled on the OpenSEES software. In this research, the Nonlinear Pushover Analysis has been used. After validation, the Capacity Curve of the studied platforms is obtained and then their Reserve Strength Ratio is calculated. Results are compared with the criteria in the API-2SIM regulations.

Keywords: fixed-type jacket structure, structural integrity management, nonlinear pushover analysis, robust and damaged structure, reserve strength ration, capacity curve

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Authors: Elham Zabetian Targhi, Niusha Fardnava, Saba Saghafi

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Urban resilience to Corona Virus has become a major concern for cities these days. Our country also has not been safe from the destructive effects of this virus in social, economic, physical, governance, and management dimensions; and according to official statistics, hundreds of thousands of people in Iran have been infected with this virus and tens of thousands have died so far. Therefore, to measure urban resilience to this pandemic, some criteria and sub-criteria were developed based on the authors’ documentary and field studies, and their significance or weights were determined using analytical-comparative research method using a questionnaire of paired or L-Saati comparisons from the viewpoint of experts in urban sciences and urban development using AHP hierarchical analysis in EXPERT CHOICE software. Then, designing a questionnaire with a five-point Likert scale, the satisfaction of Tehran residents with the extracted criteria and sub-criteria was measured and the correlation between the important criteria in each dimension was assessed using correlation tests in SPSS16 software. According to the obtained results of AHP analysis and the scores of each sub-criterion, the weight of all criteria was normal. In the next stage, according to the pairwise correlation tests between the important criteria in each dimension from the viewpoint of urban science experts and Tehran residents, it was concluded that the reliability of the correlation between the criteria is 99%. In all the cases, the P-value or the same significance level was less than 0.05, which indicated the significance of the pairwise relations between the variables.

Keywords: Urban Resilience, Pandemics, Corona Virus (Covid-19), Criteria.

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Authors: Heribert R. Kaijage, Samuel N. A. Codjoe, Simon H. D. Mamuya, Mangi J. Ezekiel

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There is strong evidence that climate has changed significantly affecting various sectors including public health. The recommended feasible solution is adopting development trajectories which combine both mitigation and adaptation measures for improving resilience pathways. This approach demands a consideration for complex interactions between climate and social-ecological systems. While other sectors such as agriculture and water have developed climate resilience indices, the public health sector in Tanzania is still lagging behind. The aim of this study was to find out how can we use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) linked with Remote Sensing (RS) technology and metrological information as tools to inform climate change resilient development and evaluation for the health sector. Methodological review was conducted whereby a number of studies were content analyzed to find appropriate indicators and indices for climate resilience household and their integration approach. These indicators were critically reviewed, listed, filtered and their sources determined. Preliminary identification and ranking of indicators were conducted using participatory approach of pairwise weighting by selected national stakeholders from meeting/conferences on human health and climate change sciences in Tanzania. DHS datasets were retrieved from Measure Evaluation project, processed and critically analyzed for possible climate change indicators. Other sources for indicators of climate change exposure were also identified. For the purpose of preliminary reporting, operationalization of selected indicators was discussed to produce methodological approach to be used in resilience comparative analysis study. It was found that household climate resilient index depends on the combination of three indices namely Household Adaptive and Mitigation Capacity (HC), Household Health Sensitivity (HHS) and Household Exposure Status (HES). It was also found that, DHS alone cannot complement resilient evaluation unless integrated with other data sources notably flooding data as a measure of vulnerability, remote sensing image of Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Metrological data (deviation from rainfall pattern). It can be concluded that if these indices retrieved from DHS data sets are computed and scientifically integrated can produce single climate resilience index and resilience maps could be generated at different spatial and time scales to enhance targeted interventions for climate resilient development and evaluations. However, further studies are need to test for the sensitivity of index in resilience comparative analysis among selected regions.

Keywords: climate change, resilience, remote sensing, demographic and health surveys

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Authors: Irene Perez Lopez

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Delta and estuary cities are spaces constantly evolving, incessantly altered by the ever-changing actions of water transformation. Strategies that incorporate comprehensive and integrated approaches to planning and design with water will play a powerful role in defining new types of flood defense. These strategies will encourage more resilient and active urban environments, allowing for new spatial and functional programs. This abstract presents the undergoing research in Newcastle, the first urbanized delta in New South Wales (Australia), and the region's second-biggest catchment and estuary. The research methodology is organized in three phases: 1) a projective cartography that analyses maps and data across the region's recorded history, identifying past and present constraints, and predicting future conditions. The cartography aids to identify worst-case scenarios, revealing the implications of land reclamation that have not considered the confronting evolution of climate change and its conflicts with inhabitation; 2) the cartographic studies identify the areas under threat and form the basis for further interdisciplinary research, complimented by community consultation, to reduce flood risk and increase urban resilience and livability; 3) a speculative or prospective phase of design with water to generate evidence-based guidelines that strengthen urban resilience of shorelines and flood prone areas.

Keywords: coastal defense, design, urban resilience, mapping

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Authors: Elizabeth Ankiambom Chiatii

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The effective participation of graduates as leaders in entrepreneurial resilience is a key driver to achieving sustainable job creation and curbing unemployment issues in the urban and rural communities of Cameroon. The unemployment problem is a global challenge in the Labour market, especially for youths graduating from universities. Statistics from the Cameroon National Institute of statistics indicate that the unemployment rate in the country increased to 3.9% in 2021 from 3.8% in 2020. One of the main causes of unemployment challenges and job hooping among university graduates is the high expectation for “white-collar jobs syndrome” as opposed to involvement in ‘blue-collar jobs’. In the recent years, the Catholic University of Cameroon has engaged its resources in problem and project based learning (PBL) approaches in order to enable the students at the end of their course work to be competent and resourceful in impacting their communities and the world at large. It is so encouraging to notice that most of our current and female ex-students have engaged as leaders in fostering entrepreneurial resilience through small and medium size ‘blue-collar’ enterprises like seamstresses or tailors, designers, catering services, poultry owners, traditional regalia designers, phone booth operators, farming (gardening) activities, saloon owners, wedding designers, restaurant operators and many other creative jobs where they also act as petty employers. A good number of them sponsor their university studies through these self-income generating activities. Part one of this paper centres on the introduction and background of study. Part two embodies some literature review in which we concentrate on some related conceptual issues. For example, we have some analogy of employment difficulties faced by the university graduates. Secondly, we will examine the details on entrepreneurial resilience within the context of Bamenda- Cameroon. Thirdly, we expound on the leadership role played by these graduates in building resilience as entrepreneurs stemming from their university training. The primary method of data collection is implemented, where questionnaires are distributed to at least 100 of these graduates engaged in building entrepreneurial resilience. The IVProbit regression analysis is used to determine the effect of these graduate participation as leader on entrepreneurial resilience. The results can contribute to the development of entrepreneurial resilience, and recommendations will be made to CATUC Bamenda, some communities and government leaders to enhance their policies to empower these young graduates in fostering these resourceful activities.

Keywords: graduates entrepreneurial resilience, unemployment challenges, white-collar job syndrome, small and medium size blue-collar enterprises

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Authors: I. Toumi, Y. Abed, A. Bouafia

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This paper presents a methodology for identifying the cohesive soil parameters that takes into account different constitutive equations. The procedure, applied to identify the parameters of generalized Prager model associated to the Drucker & Prager failure criterion from a pressuremeter expansion curve, is based on an inverse analysis approach, which consists of minimizing the function representing the difference between the experimental curve and the simulated curve using a simplex algorithm. The model response on pressuremeter path and its identification from experimental data lead to the determination of the friction angle, the cohesion and the Young modulus. Some parameters effects on the simulated curves and stresses path around pressuremeter probe are presented. Comparisons between the parameters determined with the proposed method and those obtained by other means are also presented.

Keywords: cohesive soils, cavity expansion, pressuremeter test, finite element method, optimization procedure, simplex algorithm

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Authors: Oshienemen Albert, Dilanthi Amaratunga, Richard Haigh

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Globally, disasters of any form can affect the environment, built environment, the waterways, societies, nations and communities in diverse areas. The such impacts could cut across, economic loss, social setting, cultural and livelihood structures of affected population. Thus, the raise of disaster impacts across developing nations are alarming with decades impact due to the lack of hard and soft infrastructural development across communities, inconsistency in the governmental policy and implementation, making it difficult for disaster affected communities to bounce back when necessary, especially in Nigeria. The Nigeria disasters, especially oil spillages have affected diverse communities across the Niger Delta region for decades with little or nothing as external support for the broken livelihood structure, cultural and economic damages of the people. Though, in the spirit of contribution to the communities affected by oil spill and negative consequence of petroleum production, the federal government at different times established some impressionistic bodies and agencies to oversee the affairs of the region as with regards to oil spillages and development. Thus, the agencies contributions are yet to manifest in practice. This amplifies the quest for the structural clarities of the management systems and the resilience’s of the communities, to better equip the communities for any such disaster. Therefore, the study sets to explore the Nigerian disaster management systems and resilience concept at local community level. Thus, desk-based approach and interviews are employed for the synthesis while, drawing conclusion and recommendations.

Keywords: disaster, community, management, resilience

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Authors: Saeed Chamehsara, Seyed Mostafa Mirsalim, Mehdi Tajdari

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In this study, the effect of fuel injection discharge curve and injection pressure simultaneously for upgrading power of heavy duty diesel engine by simulation of combustion process in AVL-Fire software are discussed. Hence, the fuel injection discharge curve was changed from semi-triangular to rectangular which is usual in common rail fuel injection system. Injection pressure with respect to amount of injected fuel and nozzle hole diameter are changed. Injection pressure is calculated by an experimental equation which is for heavy duty diesel engines with common rail fuel injection system. Upgrading power for 1000 and 2000 bar injection pressure are discussed. For 1000 bar injection pressure with 188 mg injected fuel and 3 mm nozzle hole diameter in compare with first state which is semi-triangular discharge curve with 139 mg injected fuel and 3 mm nozzle hole diameter, upgrading power is about 19% whereas the special change has not been observed in cylinder pressure. On the other hand, both the NOX emission and the Soot emission decreased about 30% and 6% respectively. Compared with first state, for 2000 bar injection pressure that injected fuel and nozzle diameter are 196 mg and 2.6 mm respectively, upgrading power is about 22% whereas cylinder pressure has been fixed and NOX emission and the Soot emissions are decreased 36% and 20%, respectively.

Keywords: CFD simulation, HD diesel engine, upgrading power, injection pressure, fuel injection discharge curve, combustion process

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Authors: Febri Ramadhan

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Water medium is a vital necessity for the survival of fish. Fish can survive inside/outside of water medium within a certain time. By knowing the level of survival fish at outside of water medium, a person can transport the fish to a place with more efficiently. Transport of live fish from one place to another can be done with wet and dry media system. In this experiment the treatment-given the observed differences in fish species. This experiment aimed to test the degree of resilience of fish out of water media. Based on the ANOVA table is obtained, it can be concluded that the type of fish affects the level of resilience of fish outside the water (Fhit> Ftab).

Keywords: fish, transport, retention rate, fish resiliance

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Authors: Malihe Shahidan, Azin Madhi, Meisam Shahbaz

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In recent decades, the role of supply chains in sustaining businesses and establishing their superiority in the market has been under focus. The realization of the goals and strategies of a business enterprise is largely dependent on the cooperation of the chain, including suppliers, distributors, retailers, etc. Supply chains can potentially be disrupted by both internal and external factors. In this paper, resilience strategies have been identified and analyzed in three levels: sourcing, producing, and distributing by considering economic depression as a current risk factor for the machine-made rugs industry. In this study, semi-structured interviews for data gathering and thematic analysis for data analysis are applied. Supply chain data has been gathered from seven rug factories before and after the economic depression through semi-structured interviews. The identified strategies were derived from literature review and validated by collecting data from a group of eighteen industry and university experts, and the results were analyzed using statistical tests. Finally, the outsourcing of new products and products in the new market, the development and completion of the product portfolio, the flexibility in the composition and volume of products, the expansion of the market to price-sensitive, direct sales, and disintermediation have been determined as strategies affecting supply chain resilience of machine-made rugs' industry during an economic depression.

Keywords: distribution, economic depression, machine-made rug, outsourcing, production, sourcing, supply chain, supply chain resilience

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Authors: Bilge Ozel

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Cities are high-complex living organisms and are subjects to continuous transformations produced by the stress that derives from changing conditions. Today the metropolises are seen like “development engines” of the countries and accordingly they become the centre of better living conditions that encourages demographic growth which constitutes the main reason of the changes. Indeed, the potential for economic advancement of the cities directly represents the economic status of their countries. The term of “resilience”, which sees the changes as natural processes and represents the flexibility and adaptability of the systems in the face of changing conditions, becomes a key concept for the development of urban transformation policies. The term of “resilience” derives from the Latin word ‘resilire’, which means ‘bounce’, ‘jump back’, refers to the ability of a system to withstand shocks and still maintain the basic characteristics. A resilient system does not only survive the potential risks and threats but also takes advantage of the positive outcomes of the perturbations and ensures adaptation to the new external conditions. When this understanding is taken into the urban context - or rather “urban resilience” - it delineates the capacity of cities to anticipate upcoming shocks and changes without undergoing major alterations in its functional, physical, socio-economic systems. Undoubtedly, the issue of coordinating the urban systems in a “resilient” form is a multidisciplinary and complex process as the cities are multi-layered and dynamic structures. The concept of “urban transformation” is first launched in Europe just after World War II. It has been applied through different methods such as renovation, revitalization, improvement and gentrification. These methods have been in continuous advancement by acquiring new meanings and trends over years. With the effects of neoliberal policies in the 1980s, the concept of urban transformation has been associated with economic objectives. Subsequently this understanding has been improved over time and had new orientations such as providing more social justice and environmental sustainability. The aim of this research is to identify the most applied urban transformation methods in Turkey and its main reasons of being selected. Moreover, investigating the lacking and limiting points of the urban transformation policies in the context of “urban resilience” in a comparative way with European interventions. The emblematic examples, which symbolize the breaking points of the recent evolution of urban transformation concepts in Europe and Turkey, are chosen and reviewed in a critical way.

Keywords: resilience, urban dynamics, urban resilience, urban transformation

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Authors: Samaneh Abedini, Diana Coholic

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The transition from adolescence into adulthood involves many changes that result in increased vulnerability to psychological challenges. This developmental stage can be especially stressful for female youth living in underserviced regions. If mental health problems are left untreated in socially marginalized youth, these challenges can extend into adulthood. We know that a lack of access to mental health services and supports can influence adolescents’ psycho-social development and well-being, while resilience and emotion regulation can help them cope with these challenges. Feasible therapeutic programs can play a significant role in assisting youth in developing these characteristics and skills. Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy for Children (MBCT-C) and Holistic Art-Based Program (HAP) are two examples of mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) that address emotion regulation, coping strategies, and resilience in marginalized youth. While each program’s beneficial effects have been documented, there is a lack of research comparing MBIs with youth, within underserviced geographical locations, and across different cultures. In this study, the sample was 42 female youth between the ages of 12 and 17 years from Iran. 42 female youth from the Elm o Honar High School, located in rural parts of Iran, Isfahan province, have been enrolled in the study. The participants were assigned to one of the MBIs (three MBCT-C experimental groups (n=20) and three HAP experimental groups (n=22)). All participants completed measures including the Child and Youth Resilience Measure-28 (CYRM-28), Child and Adolescent Mindfulness Measure (CAMM), and Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS) at baseline and post-intervention. At the end of intervention, the MBCT-C and HAP experimental groups showed significant changes in resilience and emotion regulation. However, the changes in resilience in HAP groups were not significant; the participants in MBCT-C experimental groups showed significant improvement in resilience. The study provided initial evidence that mindfulness-based intervention can be potentially beneficial for improving mental health status in marginalized Iranian female youth living in the middle east culture.

Keywords: benefits, female, marginalized, mindfulness, youth

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Authors: D. M. S. Bandara, Yunqi Lei, Ye Luo

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Fingerprints are suitable as long-term markers of human identity since they provide detailed and unique individual features which are difficult to alter and durable over life time. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to encrypt and decrypt fingerprint images by using a specially designed Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) procedure based on block ciphers. In addition, to increase the confusing effect of fingerprint encryption, we also utilize a chaotic-behaved method called Arnold Cat Map (ACM) for a 2D scrambling of pixel locations in our method. Experimental results are carried out with various types of efficiency and security analyses. As a result, we demonstrate that the proposed fingerprint encryption/decryption algorithm is advantageous in several different aspects including efficiency, security and flexibility. In particular, using this algorithm, we achieve a margin of about 0.1% in the test of Number of Pixel Changing Rate (NPCR) values comparing to the-state-of-the-art performances.

Keywords: arnold cat map, biometric encryption, block cipher, elliptic curve cryptography, fingerprint encryption, Koblitz’s encoding

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Authors: Vincenzo Russo, Rosella Giacometti

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The paper aims to assess the insurance industry's resilience under Solvency II against adverse scenarios. Starting from the economic balance sheet available under Solvency II for insurance and reinsurance undertakings, we assume that assets and liabilities follow a bivariate geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Then, using the results available under Margrabe's formula, we establish an analytical solution to calibrate the volatility of the asset-liability ratio. In such a way, we can estimate the probability of default and the probability of breaching the undertaking's Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). Furthermore, since estimating the volatility of the Solvency Ratio became crucial for insurers in light of the financial crises featured in the last decades, we introduce a novel measure that we call Resiliency Ratio. The Resiliency Ratio can be used, in addition to the Solvency Ratio, to evaluate the insurance industry's resilience in case of adverse scenarios. Finally, we introduce a simplified stress test tool to evaluate the economic balance sheet under stressed conditions. The model we propose is featured by analytical tractability and fast calibration procedure where only the disclosed data available under the Solvency II public reporting are needed for the calibration. Using the data published regularly by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) in an aggregated form by country, an empirical analysis has been performed to calibrate the model and provide the related results at the country level.

Keywords: Solvency II, solvency ratio, volatility of the asset-liability ratio, probability of default, probability to breach the SCR, resilience ratio, stress test

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Authors: Cheng Wen, Zhang Jianhua

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This paper aims to probe into the general rules of industry specialization or diversification in a region during its process of economic growth and the specific reasons for the difference of industry specialization development in the eastern, central and western regions of China. It is found in this paper that the changes of regional industry specialization in China, like most of countries in the world, also present the U-shaped curve. Regional industrial structure is diversified in the first place. And when the per capita income exceeds a certain level, distribution of economic resources in this region will be concentrated again. From the perspective of rising total factor productivity and falling of transaction cost in the process of economic development, this paper comes up with a theoretical model to explain the U-shaped curve. Through the empirical test of China's provincial panel data, this paper explains the factors that cause the inequality of the industry specialization development in the eastern, central and western regions of China.

Keywords: u-shaped curve, regional industrial specialization, technological progress, transaction costs

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Authors: Behrooz Balaei, Suzanne Wilkinson, Regan Potangaroa, Larry Abel, Philip McFarlane

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Water supply system failure has serious direct and indirect effects on people wellbeing. Post-disaster water system serviceability depends on a variety of factors from technical characteristics to social, economic, and organizational attributes of communities. This paper tests the organizational factors affecting water supply resilience to outline how these factors contributed to previous disasters. To do so, a framework is briefly introduced in this study to provide a clear guide to identify the significant relevant organizational factors. Then the factors affecting water serviceability following a disaster are outlines. Next, these factors are measured in the case of Tropical Cyclone Pam, which hit Vanuatu in March 2015. Reviewing the existing literature has also been carried out to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the background A site visit and a series of interviews have also been undertaken following the cyclone to collect site-specific data and information. In the end, the organizational factors were ranked to enable decision makers to identify significance of each factor compared to the others.

Keywords: water supply, resilience, organizational capacity, Vanuatu, Tropical Cyclone Pam

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Authors: R. Rama Kishore, Sunesh

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Recent development in the usage of internet for different purposes creates a great threat for the copyright protection of the digital images. Digital watermarking can be used to address the problem. This paper presents detailed review of the different watermarking techniques, latest trends in the field of secured, robust and imperceptible watermarking. It also discusses the different optimization techniques used in the field of watermarking in order to improve the robustness and imperceptibility of the method. Different measures are discussed to evaluate the performance of the watermarking algorithm. At the end, this paper proposes a watermarking algorithm using (2, 2) share visual cryptography and Bezier curve based algorithm to improve the security of the watermark. The proposed method uses fractional transformation to improve the robustness of the copyright protection of the method. The algorithm is optimized using fuzzy entropy for better results.

Keywords: digital watermarking, fractional transform, visual cryptography, Bezier curve, fuzzy entropy

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Authors: Harry Aginta

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Using Phillips curve framework, this paper seeks for new empirical evidence on the relationship between inflation and output in a major emerging economy. By exploiting sub-national data, the contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it resolves the issue of using on-target national inflation rates that potentially causes weakening inflation-output nexus. This is very relevant for Indonesia as its central bank has been adopting inflation targeting framework based on national consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Second, the study tests the relevance of mining sector in output gap estimation. The test for mining sector is important to control for the effects of mining regulation and nominal effects of coal prices on real economic activities. Third, the paper applies panel econometric method by incorporating regional variation that help to improve model estimation. The results from this paper confirm the strong presence of Phillips curve in Indonesia. Positive output gap that reflects excess demand condition gives rise to the inflation rates. In addition, the elasticity of output gap is higher if the mining sector is excluded from output gap estimation. In addition to inflation adaptation, the dynamics of exchange rate and international commodity price are also found to affect inflation significantly. The results are robust to the alternative measurement of output gap

Keywords: Phillips curve, inflation, Indonesia, panel data

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Authors: Caroline McDonald-Harker, Julie Drolet

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Abstract— In the last six years Canada In the last six years Canada has experienced two major and catastrophic environmental disasters– the 2013 Southern Alberta flood and the 2016 Fort McMurray, Alberta wildfire. These two disasters resulted in damages exceeding 12 billion dollars, the costliest disasters in Canadian history. In the aftermath of these disasters, many families faced the loss of homes, places of employment, schools, recreational facilities, and also experienced social, emotional, and psychological difficulties. Children and youth are among the most vulnerable to the devastating effects of disasters due to the physical, cognitive, and social factors related to their developmental life stage. Yet children and youth also have the capacity to be resilient and act as powerful catalyst for change in their own lives and wider communities following disaster. Little is known, particularly from a sociological perspective, about the specific factors that contribute to resilience in children and youth, and effective ways to support their overall health and well-being. This paper focuses on the voices and experiences of children and youth residing in these two disaster-affected communities in Alberta, Canada and specifically examines: 1) How children and youth’s lives are impacted by the tragedy, devastation, and upheaval of disaster; 2) Ways that children and youth demonstrate resilience when directly faced with the adversarial circumstances of disaster; and 3) The cumulative internal and external factors that contribute to bolstering and supporting resilience among children and youth post-disaster. This paper discusses the characteristics associated with high levels of resilience in 183 children and youth ages 5 to 17 based on quantitative and qualitative data obtained through a mix methods approach. Child and youth participants were administered the Children and Youth Resilience Measure (CYRM-28) in order to examine factors that influence resilience processes including: individual, caregiver, and context factors. The CYRM-28 was then supplemented with qualitative interviews with children and youth to contextualize the CYRM-28 resiliency factors and provide further insight into their overall disaster experience. Findings reveal that high levels of resilience among child and youth participants is associated with both individual factors and caregiver factors, specifically positive outlook, effective communication, peer support, and physical and psychological caregiving. Individual and caregiver factors helped mitigate the negative effects of disaster, thus bolstering resilience in children and youth. This paper discusses the implications that these findings have for understanding the specific mechanisms that support the resiliency processes and overall recovery of children and youth following disaster; the importance of bridging the gap between children and youth’s needs and the services and supports provided to them post-disaster; and the need to develop resiliency processes and practices that empower children and youth as active agents of change in their own lives following disaster. These findings contribute to furthering knowledge about pragmatic and representative changes to resources, programs, and policies surrounding disaster response, recovery, and mitigation.

Keywords: children and youth, disaster, environment, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: William Ho, Agus Wicaksana

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Anecdotal evidence in the last decade shows that the occurrence of disruptive events and uncertainties in the supply chain is increasing. The coupling of these events with the nature of an increasingly complex and interdependent business environment leads to devastating impacts that quickly propagate within and across organizations. For example, the recent COVID-19 pandemic increased the global supply chain disruption frequency by at least 20% in 2020 and is projected to have an accumulative cost of $13.8 trillion by 2024. This crisis raises attention to organizational resilience to weather business uncertainty. However, the concept has been criticized for being vague and lacking a consistent definition, thus reducing the significance of the concept for practice and research. This study is intended to solve that issue by providing a comprehensive review of the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience that have been discussed in the supply chain risk management literature (SCRM). We performed a Scholarly Network Analysis, combining citation-based and text-based approaches, on 252 articles published from 2000 to 2021 in top-tier journals based on three parameters: AJG ranking and ABS ranking, UT Dallas and FT50 list, and editorial board review. We utilized a hybrid scholarly network analysis by combining citation-based and text-based approaches to understand the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience in the SCRM literature. Specifically, we employed a Bibliographic Coupling Analysis in the research cluster formation stage and a Co-words Analysis in the research cluster interpretation and analysis stage. Our analysis reveals three major research clusters of resilience research in the SCRM literature, namely (1) supply chain network design and optimization, (2) organizational capabilities, and (3) digital technologies. We portray the research process in the last two decades in terms of the exemplar studies, problems studied, commonly used approaches and theories, and solutions provided in each cluster. We then provide a conceptual framework on the conceptualization and antecedents of resilience based on studies in these clusters and highlight potential areas that need to be studied further. Finally, we leverage the concept of abnormal operating performance to propose a new measurement strategy for resilience. This measurement overcomes the limitation of most current measurements that are event-dependent and focus on the resistance or recovery stage - without capturing the growth stage. In conclusion, this study provides a robust literature review through a scholarly network analysis that increases the completeness and accuracy of research cluster identification and analysis to understand conceptualization, antecedents, and measurement of resilience. It also enables us to perform a comprehensive review of resilience research in SCRM literature by including research articles published during the pandemic and connects this development with a plethora of articles published in the last two decades. From the managerial perspective, this study provides practitioners with clarity on the conceptualization and critical success factors of firm resilience from the SCRM perspective.

Keywords: supply chain risk management, organizational resilience, scholarly network analysis, systematic literature review

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Jack L. Harris, Marya L. Doerfel, Hyunsook Youn, Minkyung Kim, Kautuki Sunil Jariwala

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Organizational resilience refers to the ability to sustain business or general work functioning despite wide-scale interruptions. We focus on organization and businesses as a pillar of their communities and how they attempt to sustain work when a natural disaster impacts their surrounding regions and economies. While it may be more common to think of resilience as a trait possessed by an organization, an emerging area of research recognizes that for organizations and businesses, resilience is a set of processes that are constituted through communication, social networks, and organizing. Indeed, five processes, robustness, rapidity, resourcefulness, redundancy, and external availability through social media have been identified as critical to organizational resilience. These organizing mechanisms involve multi-level coordination, where individuals intersect with groups, organizations, and communities. Because the nature of such interactions are often networks of people and organizations coordinating material resources, information, and support, they necessarily require some way to coordinate despite being displaced. Little is known, however, if physical and digital spaces can substitute one for the other. We thus are guided by the question, is digital space sufficient when disaster creates a scarcity of physical space? This study presents a cross-case comparison based on field research from four different regions of the United States that were impacted by Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Sandy (2012), Maria (2017), and Harvey (2017). These four cases are used to extend the science of resilience by examining multi-level processes enacted by individuals, communities, and organizations that together, contribute to the resilience of disaster-struck organizations, businesses, and their communities. Using field research about organizations and businesses impacted by the four hurricanes, we code data from interviews, participant observations, field notes, and document analysis drawn from New Orleans (post-Katrina), coastal New Jersey (post-Sandy), Houston Texas (post-Harvey), and the lower keys of Florida (post-Maria). This paper identifies an additional organizing mechanism, networked gathering spaces, where citizens and organizations, alike, coordinate and facilitate information sharing, material resource distribution, and social support. Findings show that digital space, alone, is not a sufficient substitute to effectively sustain organizational resilience during a disaster. Because the data are qualitative, we expand on this finding with specific ways in which organizations and the people who lead them worked around the problem of scarce space. We propose that gatherings after disaster are a sixth mechanism that contributes to organizational resilience.

Keywords: communication, coordination, disaster management, information and communication technologies, interorganizational relationships, resilience, work

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: S. H. Iranmanesh, L. Aliabadi, A. Mollajan

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Integrated resilience engineering (IRE) is capable of returning banking systems to the normal state in extensive economic circumstances. In this study, information system of a large bank (with several branches) is assessed and optimized under severe economic conditions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are employed to achieve the objective of this study. Nine IRE factors are considered to be the outputs, and a dummy variable is defined as the input of the DEA models. A standard questionnaire is designed and distributed among executive managers to be considered as the decision-making units (DMUs). Reliability and validity of the questionnaire is examined based on Cronbach's alpha and t-test. The most appropriate DEA model is determined based on average efficiency and normality test. It is shown that the proposed integrated design provides higher efficiency than the conventional RE design. Results of sensitivity and perturbation analysis indicate that self-organization, fault tolerance, and reporting culture respectively compose about 50 percent of total weight.

Keywords: banking system, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Integrated Resilience Engineering (IRE), performance evaluation, perturbation analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Farzaneh Sasanpour, Saeed Amini Varaki

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Resilience is an important goal for cities as urban areas face an increasing range of challenges in the 21st century; therefore, according to the characteristics of risks, adopting an approach that responds to sensitive conditions in the risk management process is the resilience of cities. In the meantime, most of the resilience assessments have dealt with natural hazards and less attention has been paid to pandemics.In the covid-19 pandemic, the country of Iran and especially the metropolis of Tehran, was not immune from the crisis caused by its effects and consequences and faced many challenges. One of the methods that can increase the resilience of Tehran's metropolis against possible crises in the future is future studies. This research is practical in terms of type. The general pattern of the research will be descriptive-analytical and from the point of view that it is trying to communicate between the components and provide urban resilience indicators with pandemic crises and explain the scenarios, its future studies method is exploratory. In order to extract and determine the key factors and driving forces effective on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), the method of structural analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software was used. Therefore, the primary factors and variables affecting the resilience of Tehran's urban areas were set in 5 main factors, including physical-infrastructural (transportation, spatial and physical organization, streets and roads, multi-purpose development) with 39 variables based on mutual effects analysis. Finally, key factors and variables in five main areas, including managerial-institutional with five variables; Technology (intelligence) with 3 variables; economic with 2 variables; socio-cultural with 3 variables; and physical infrastructure, were categorized with 7 variables. These factors and variables have been used as key factors and effective driving forces on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), in explaining and developing scenarios. In order to develop the scenarios for the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), intuitive logic, scenario planning as one of the future research methods and the Global Business Network (GBN) model were used. Finally, four scenarios have been drawn and selected with a creative method using the metaphor of weather conditions, which is indicative of the general outline of the conditions of the metropolis of Tehran in that situation. Therefore, the scenarios of Tehran metropolis were obtained in the form of four scenarios: 1- solar scenario (optimal governance and management leading in smart technology) 2- cloud scenario (optimal governance and management following in intelligent technology) 3- dark scenario (optimal governance and management Unfavorable leader in intelligence technology) 4- Storm scenario (unfavorable governance and management of follower in intelligence technology). The solar scenario shows the best situation and the stormy scenario shows the worst situation for the Tehran metropolis. According to the findings obtained in this research, city managers can, in order to achieve a better tomorrow for the metropolis of Tehran, in all the factors and components of urban resilience against pandemic crises by using future research methods, a coherent picture with the long-term horizon of 2050, from the path Provide urban resilience movement and platforms for upgrading and increasing the capacity to deal with the crisis. To create the necessary platforms for the realization, development and evolution of the urban areas of Tehran in a way that guarantees long-term balance and stability in all dimensions and levels.

Keywords: future research, resilience, crisis, pandemic, covid-19, Tehran

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: E. M. H. Maggie, M. N. A. Nazmey, M. A. Abdel-Sattar, S. A. Saied

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A successful trial of transplanting cotton is reported. Seeds grown in trays for 4-5 weeks in an easily prepared supporting medium such as peat moss or similar plant waste are tried. Careful transplanting of seedlings, with root system as intact as possible, is being made in the permanent field. The practice reduced damping-off incidence rate and allowed full winter crop revenues. Further work is needed to evaluate certain parameters such as growth curve, flowering curve, and yield at economic bases.

Keywords: cotton, transplanting cotton, damping-off diseases, environment sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Qiuxiao Chen, Yan Hou, Ning Wu

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As there are deficiencies of the classic Douglas-Peucker Algorithm (DPA), such as high risks of deleting key nodes by mistake, high complexity, time consumption and relatively slow execution speed, a new Deletion-Cost Based Compression Algorithm (DCA) for linear vector data was proposed. For each curve — the basic element of linear vector data, all the deletion costs of its middle nodes were calculated, and the minimum deletion cost was compared with the pre-defined threshold. If the former was greater than or equal to the latter, all remaining nodes were reserved and the curve’s compression process was finished. Otherwise, the node with the minimal deletion cost was deleted, its two neighbors' deletion costs were updated, and the same loop on the compressed curve was repeated till the termination. By several comparative experiments using different types of linear vector data, the comparison between DPA and DCA was performed from the aspects of compression quality and computing efficiency. Experiment results showed that DCA outperformed DPA in compression accuracy and execution efficiency as well.

Keywords: Douglas-Peucker algorithm, linear vector data, compression, deletion cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 215