Search results for: regression models drone

Authors: Sifriyani Sifriyani, I Nyoman Budiantara, Sri Haryatmi, Gunardi Gunardi

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East Java Province has a first rank as a province that has the most counties and cities in Indonesia and has the largest population. In 2015, the population reached 38.847.561 million, this figure showed a very high population growth. High population growth is feared to lead to increase the levels of unemployment. In this study, the researchers mapped and modeled the unemployment rate with 6 variables that were supposed to influence. Modeling was done by nonparametric geographically weighted regression methods with truncated spline approach. This method was chosen because spline method is a flexible method, these models tend to look for its own estimation. In this modeling, there were point knots, the point that showed the changes of data. The selection of the optimum point knots was done by selecting the most minimun value of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the research, 6 variables were declared to affect the level of unemployment in eastern Java. They were the percentage of population that is educated above high school, the rate of economic growth, the population density, the investment ratio of total labor force, the regional minimum wage and the ratio of the number of big industry and medium scale industry from the work force. The nonparametric geographically weighted regression models with truncated spline approach had a coefficient of determination 98.95% and the value of MSE equal to 0.0047.

Keywords: East Java, nonparametric geographically weighted regression, spatial, spline approach, unemployed rate

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Vivian Wu

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During the mating season, honeybee drones make mating fights to congregation areas where they face fierce competition to mate with a queen. Drones have developed distinct anatomical and functional features in order to optimize their chances of success. Flight activities of western honeybee (Apis mellifera) drones and foragers were monitored using radio frequency identification (RFID) to test if drones have also developed distinct flight behaviors. Drone flight durations showed a bimodal distribution dividing the flights into short flights and long flights while forager flight durations showed a left-skewed unimodal distribution. Interestingly, the short trips occurred prior to the long trips on a daily basis. The first trips of the day the drones made were primarily short trips, and the distribution significantly shifted to long trips as the drones made more trips. In contrast, forager trips showed no such shift of distribution. In addition, drones made short trips but no long mating trips on days associated with a significant drop in temperature and increase of clouds compared to the previous day. These findings suggest that drones may have developed a unique flight behavior making short trips first to survey the weather conditions before flying out to the congregation area to pursue a successful mating.

Keywords: apis mellifera, drone, flight behavior, weather, RFID

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Authors: Abrudan Dumitru

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Civil infrastructures require permanent attention from the moment of taking over to the moment of demolition. One important aspect that is mandatory to be taken into consideration is crack detection. This operation, to detect cracks that can appear during the lifetime of the civil infrastructure, requires specialized personnel and, depending on the civil infrastructure, can require specialized skills (such as climbing). To overcome this issue with regard to specialized manpower, image processing is used. In our days images can be easily acquired using an unmanned aircraft vehicle system known also as a drone. The main advantages of a drone for civil infrastructure image acquisition are it can be operated at different heights, weather conditions are not an issue, being suitable to be used on rainy, windy, sunny days and so on. In this paper, we used a dataset that contains three types of images: with cracks, without cracks and with noise. To remove the noise presented in images, mathematical morphology operators (MMO) are used.

Keywords: VGG16, VGG19, image processing, mathematical morphology

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Authors: Katawut Kaewbanjong

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We analyzed a volume of data and found significant user satisfaction in software project factors. A statistical significance analysis (logistic regression) and collinearity analysis determined the significance factors from a group of 71 pre-defined factors from 191 software projects in ISBSG Release 12. The eight prediction models used for testing the prediction potential of these factors were Neural network, k-NN, Naïve Bayes, Random forest, Decision tree, Gradient boosted tree, linear regression and logistic regression prediction model. Fifteen pre-defined factors were truly significant in predicting user satisfaction, and they provided 82.71% prediction accuracy when used with a neural network prediction model. These factors were client-server, personnel changes, total defects delivered, project inactive time, industry sector, application type, development type, how methodology was acquired, development techniques, decision making process, intended market, size estimate approach, size estimate method, cost recording method, and effort estimate method. These findings may benefit software development managers considerably.

Keywords: prediction model, statistical analysis, software project, user satisfaction factor

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Authors: Y. H. Wu, Ji-Yuan Lin, Yu-Ming Liou

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This study aims to set up the landslide susceptibility map of County Route 89 at Ren-Ai Township in Nantou County using the Instability Index Method and Logistic regression. Seven susceptibility factors including Slope Angle, Aspect, Elevation, Distance to fold, Distance to River, Distance to Road and Accumulated Rainfall were obtained by GIS based on the Typhoon Toraji landslide area identified by Industrial Technology Research Institute in 2001. To calculate the landslide percentage of each factor and acquire the weight and grade the grid by means of Instability Index Method. In this study, landslide susceptibility can be classified into four grades: high, medium high, medium low and low, in order to determine the advantages and disadvantages of the two models. The precision of this model is verified by classification error matrix and SRC curve. These results suggest that the logistic regression model is a preferred method than instability index in the assessment of landslide susceptibility. It is suitable for the landslide prediction and precaution in this area in the future.

Keywords: instability index method, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, SRC curve

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Authors: Sebastian van Delden, Matthew Anuszkiewicz, Jayse White, Scott Stolarski

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Industrial robotic manipulators have been commonplace in the manufacturing world since the early 1960s, and unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) have only begun to realize their full potential in the service industry and the military. The omnipresence of these technologies in their respective fields will only become more potent in coming years. While these technologies have greatly evolved over the years, the typical approach to human interaction with these robots has not. In the industrial robotics realm, a manipulator is typically jogged around using a teach pendant and programmed using a networked computer or the teach pendant itself via a proprietary software development platform. Drones are typically controlled using a two-handed controller equipped with throttles, buttons, and sticks, an app that can be downloaded to one’s mobile device, or a combination of both. This application-oriented work offers a novel approach to human interaction with both unmanned aerial vehicles and industrial robotic manipulators via hand gestures and movements. Two systems have been implemented, both of which use a Myo™ armband to control either a drone (DJI Spark™) or a robotic arm (Stäubli™ TX40). The methodologies developed by this work present a mapping of armband gestures (fist, finger spread, swing hand in, swing hand out, swing arm left/up/down/right, etc.) to either drone or robot arm movements. The findings of this study present the efficacy and limitations (precision and ergonomic) of hand gesture control of two distinct types of robotic technology. All source code associated with this project will be open sourced and placed on GitHub. In conclusion, this study offers a framework that maps hand and arm gestures to drone and robot arm control. The system has been implemented using current ubiquitous technologies, and these software artifacts will be open sourced for future researchers or practitioners to use in their work.

Keywords: human robot interaction, drones, gestures, robotics

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Authors: Mylena McCoggle, Shyra Wilson, Andrea Rivera, Rocio Alba-Flores

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This work introduces the use of EMGs (electromyography) from muscle sensors to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for pattern recognition to control a small unmanned aerial vehicle. The objective of this endeavor exhibits interfacing drone applications beyond manual control directly. MyoWare Muscle sensor contains three EMG electrodes (dual and single type) used to collect signals from the posterior (extensor) and anterior (flexor) forearm and the bicep. Collection of raw voltages from each sensor were connected to an Arduino Uno and a data processing algorithm was developed with the purpose of interpreting the voltage signals given when performing flexing, resting, and motion of the arm. Each sensor collected eight values over a two-second period for the duration of one minute, per assessment. During each two-second interval, the movements were alternating between a resting reference class and an active motion class, resulting in controlling the motion of the drone with left and right movements. This paper further investigated adding up to three sensors to differentiate between hand gestures to control the principal motions of the drone (left, right, up, and land). The hand gestures chosen to execute these movements were: a resting position, a thumbs up, a hand swipe right motion, and a flexing position. The MATLAB software was utilized to collect, process, and analyze the signals from the sensors. The protocol (machine learning tool) was used to classify the hand gestures. To generate the input vector to the ANN, the mean, root means squared, and standard deviation was processed for every two-second interval of the hand gestures. The neuromuscular information was then trained using an artificial neural network with one hidden layer of 10 neurons to categorize the four targets, one for each hand gesture. Once the machine learning training was completed, the resulting network interpreted the processed inputs and returned the probabilities of each class. Based on the resultant probability of the application process, once an output was greater or equal to 80% of matching a specific target class, the drone would perform the motion expected. Afterward, each movement was sent from the computer to the drone through a Wi-Fi network connection. These procedures have been successfully tested and integrated into trial flights, where the drone has responded successfully in real-time to predefined command inputs with the machine learning algorithm through the MyoWare sensor interface. The full paper will describe in detail the database of the hand gestures, the details of the ANN architecture, and confusion matrices results.

Keywords: artificial neural network, biosensors, electromyography, machine learning, MyoWare muscle sensors, Arduino

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Authors: Darren Zou

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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock

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Authors: Petr Gurný

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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

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Authors: Yanqi Yang, Chongshan Liao, Cheuk Hin Ho, Susan Bridges

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Aim: To investigate student’s perceptions of using e-models in an inquiry-based curriculum. Approach: 52 second-year dental students completed a pre- and post-test questionnaire relating to their perceptions of e-models and their use in inquiry-based learning. The pre-test occurred prior to any learning with e-models. The follow-up survey was conducted after one year's experience of using e-models. Results: There was no significant difference between the two sets of questionnaires regarding student’s perceptions of the usefulness of e-models and their willingness to use e-models in future inquiry-based learning. Most of the students preferred using both plaster models and e-models in tandem. Conclusion: Students did not change their attitude towards e-models and most of them agreed or were neutral that e-models are useful in inquiry-based learning. Whilst recognizing the utility of 3D models for learning, student's preference for combining these with solid models has implications for the development of haptic sensibility in an operative discipline.

Keywords: e-models, inquiry-based curriculum, education, questionnaire

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Authors: Marius Gavrilescu, Sabina-Adriana Floria, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Natural sciences provide a wide range of experimental data whose related problems require study and modeling beyond the capabilities of conventional methodologies. Such problems have solution spaces whose complexity and high dimensionality require correspondingly complex regression methods for proper characterization. In this context, we propose an optimization method which consists in a hybrid dual optimizer setup: a global optimizer based on a modified variant of the popular Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA), and a local optimizer based on a gradient descent approach. The ICA is modified such that intermediate solution populations are more quickly and efficiently pruned of low-fitness individuals by appropriately altering the assimilation, revolution and competition phases, which, combined with an initialization strategy based on low-discrepancy sampling, allows for a more effective exploration of the corresponding solution space. Subsequently, gradient-based optimization is used locally to seek the optimal solution in the neighborhoods of the solutions found through the modified ICA. We use this combined approach to find the optimal configuration and weights of a fully-connected neural network, resulting in regression models used to characterize the process of obtained bricks using silicon-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. Thus, the purpose of our approach is to determine by simulation the working conditions, including the manufacturing mix recipe with the addition of different materials, to minimize the emissions represented by CO and CH4. Our approach determines regression models which perform significantly better than those found using the traditional ICA for the aforementioned problem, resulting in better convergence and a substantially lower error.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, regression models, bricks, emissions

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Authors: Gianna Zou

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Propensity score matching (PSM), introduced by Paul R. Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin in 1983, is a popular statistical matching technique which tries to estimate the treatment effects by taking into account covariates that could impact the efficacy of study medication in clinical trials. PSM can be used to reduce the bias due to confounding variables. However, PSM assumes that the response values are normally distributed. In some cases, this assumption may not be held. In this paper, a machine learning method - Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART), is used as a more robust method of matching. BART can work well when models are misspecified since it can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects. Moreover, it has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multiway interactions. In this research, a BART Matching Method (BMM) is proposed to provide a more reliable matching method over PSM. By comparing the analysis results from PSM and BMM, BMM can perform well and has better prediction capability when the response values are not normally distributed.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, matching, regression

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Authors: Shiwei Deng, Yang Bao

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In this paper, we present a model-based regression test suite reducing approach that uses EFSM model dependence analysis and probability-driven greedy algorithm to reduce software regression test suites. The approach automatically identifies the difference between the original model and the modified model as a set of elementary model modifications. The EFSM dependence analysis is performed for each elementary modification to reduce the regression test suite, and then the probability-driven greedy algorithm is adopted to select the minimum set of test cases from the reduced regression test suite that cover all interaction patterns. Our initial experience shows that the approach may significantly reduce the size of regression test suites.

Keywords: dependence analysis, EFSM model, greedy algorithm, regression test

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Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

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The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. The F-test value for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: allometriy, biomass, carbon stock , model, regression equation, woodland, inventory

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Authors: Suparman

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Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: piecewise regression, bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation

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Authors: Smail Tigani, Mohamed Ouzzif

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This work presents a discrete quantitative state prediction algorithm with intelligent behavior making it able to self-improve some performance aspects. The specificity of this algorithm is the capacity of self-rectification of the prediction strategy before the final decision. The auto-rectification mechanism is based on two parallel mathematical models. In one hand, the algorithm predicts the next state based on event transition matrix updated after each observation. In the other hand, the algorithm extracts its residues trend with a linear regression representing historical residues data-points in order to rectify the first decision if needs. For a normal distribution, the interactivity between the two models allows the algorithm to self-optimize its performance and then make better prediction. Designed key performance indicator, computed during a Monte Carlo simulation, shows the advantages of the proposed approach compared with traditional one.

Keywords: discrete state, Markov Chains, linear regression, auto-adaptive systems, decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation

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Authors: Ridha Fethi Mechlouch, Ahlem Ayadi, Ammar Ben Brahim

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Given the importance of the preservation of polyphenols and carotenoids during thermal processing, we attempted in this study to investigate the variation of these two parameters in faba beans during microwave treatment using different power densities (1; 2; and 3W/g), then to perform a mathematical modeling by using non-linear regression analysis to evaluate the models constants. The variation of the carotenoids and polyphenols ratio of faba beans and the models are tested to validate the experimental results. Exponential models were found to be suitable to describe the variation of caratenoid ratio (R²= 0.945, 0.927 and 0.946) for power densities (1; 2; and 3W/g) respectively, and polyphenol ratio (R²= 0.931, 0.989 and 0.982) for power densities (1; 2; and 3W/g) respectively. The effect of microwave power density Pd(W/g) on the coefficient k of models were also investigated. The coefficient is highly correlated (R² = 1) and can be expressed as a polynomial function.

Keywords: microwave treatment, power density, carotenoid, polyphenol, modeling

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Authors: Shu-Hsi Ho

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The problems of aging and number of widowed peers gradually rise in Taiwan. It is worth to concern the related issues for elderly after the death of a spouse. Hence, this study is to examine the impact of spousal death on the surviving spouse’s self-perceived health and mental health for the elderly in Taiwan. A cross section data design and ordered logistic regression models are applied to investigate whether marriage is associated significantly to self-perceived health and mental health for the widowed older Taiwanese. The results indicate that widowed marriage shows significant negative effects on self-perceived health and mental health regardless of widows or widowers. Among them, widows might be more likely to show worse mental health than widowers. The belief confirms that marriage provides effective sources to promote self-perceived health and mental health, particularly for females. In addition, since the social welfare system is not perfect in Taiwan, the findings also suggest that family and social support reveal strongly association with the self-perceived health and mental health for the widows and widowers elderly.

Keywords: logistic regression models, self-perceived health, widow, widower

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Lluís Bermúdez, Isabel Morillo

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Road safety involves carrying out a determined and explicit policy to reduce accidents. In the city of Barcelona, through the Local Road Safety Plan 2013-2018, in line with the framework that has been established at the European and state level, a series of preventive, corrective and technical measures are specified, with the priority objective of reducing the number of serious injuries and fatalities. In this work, based on the data from the accidents managed by the local police during the period 2010-2019, an analysis is carried out to verify whether the measures established in the Plan to reduce the accident rate have had an effect or not and to what extent. The analysis focuses on the type of accident and the type of vehicles involved. Different count regression models have been fitted, from which it can be deduced that the number of serious and fatal victims of the accidents that have occurred in the city of Barcelona has been reduced as the measures approved by the authorities.

Keywords: accident reduction, count regression models, road safety, urban traffic

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Authors: Apollinaire Barme, Simon Tamayo, Arthur Gaudron

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This paper presents a statistical approach to identify explanatory variables linearly related to e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology allows specifying a regression model in order to quantify the relevance between openly available data (economic and demographic) and national e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology consists in collecting data, preselecting input variables, performing regressions for choosing variables and models, testing and validating. The usefulness of the proposed approach is twofold: on the one hand, it allows identifying the variables that influence e- commerce sales with an accessible approach. And on the other hand, it can be used to model future sales from the input variables. Results show that e-commerce is linearly dependent on 11 economic and demographic indicators.

Keywords: e-commerce, statistical modeling, regression, empirical research

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Authors: Shahadut Hossain

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Measurement errors in continuous covariates and/or misclassifications in categorical covariates are common in epidemiological studies. Regression analysis ignoring such mismeasurements seriously biases the estimated main and interaction effects of covariates on the outcome of interest. Thus, adjustments for such mismeasurements are necessary. In this research, we propose a Bayesian parametric framework for eliminating deleterious impacts of covariate mismeasurements in logistic regression. The proposed adjustment method is unified and thus can be applied to any generalized linear and non-linear regression models. Furthermore, adjustment for covariate mismeasurements requires validation data usually in the form of either gold standard measurements or replicates of the mismeasured covariates on a subset of the study population. Initial investigation shows that adequacy of such adjustment depends on the sizes of main and validation samples, especially when prevalences of the categorical covariates are low. Thus, we investigate the impact of main and validation sample sizes on the adjusted estimates, and provide a general guideline about these sample sizes based on simulation studies.

Keywords: measurement errors, misclassification, mismeasurement, validation sample, Bayesian adjustment

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Authors: Sergio Haram Sarmiento, Arcady Ponosov

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Based on appropriate multivariate statistical methodology, we suggest a generic framework for efficient parameter estimation for ordinary differential equations and the corresponding nonlinear models. In this framework classical linear regression strategies is refined into a nonlinear regression by a locally linear modelling technique (known as metamodelling). The approach identifies those latent variables of the given model that accumulate most information about it among all approximations of the same dimension. The method is applied to several benchmark problems, in particular, to the so-called ”power-law systems”, being non-linear differential equations typically used in Biochemical System Theory.

Keywords: principal component analysis, generalized law of mass action, parameter estimation, metamodels

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Authors: K. D. Sharma, M. Parida, S. S. Jain, Anju Saini, V. K. Katiyar

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Air quality models form one of the most important components of an urban air quality management plan. Various statistical modeling techniques (regression, multiple regression and time series analysis) have been used to predict air pollution concentrations in the urban environment. These models calculate pollution concentrations due to observed traffic, meteorological and pollution data after an appropriate relationship has been obtained empirically between these parameters. Artificial neural network (ANN) is increasingly used as an alternative tool for modeling the pollutants from vehicular traffic particularly in urban areas. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to model traffic air pollution, specifically CO concentration using neural networks. In case of CO concentration, two scenarios were considered. First, with only classified traffic volume input and the second with both classified traffic volume and meteorological variables. The results showed that CO concentration can be predicted with good accuracy using artificial neural network (ANN).

Keywords: air quality management, artificial neural network, meteorological variables, statistical modeling

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

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Authors: Si Chen, Le Zhang, Xian He

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The research explored the influences of public open space system on housing price through hedonic models, in order to support better open space plans and economic policies. We have three initial hypotheses: 1) public open space system has an overall positive influence on surrounding housing prices. 2) Different public open space types have different levels of influence on motivating surrounding housing prices. 3) Walking and driving accessibilities from property to public open spaces have different statistical relation with housing prices. Cook County, Illinois, was chosen to be a study area since data availability, sufficient open space types, and long-term open space preservation strategies. We considered the housing attributes, driving and walking accessibility scores from houses to nearby public open spaces, and driving accessibility scores to hospitals as influential features and used real housing sales price in 2010 as a dependent variable in the built hedonic model. Through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis, General Moran’s I analysis and geographically weighted regression analysis, we observed the statistical relations between public open spaces and housing sale prices in the three built hedonic models and confirmed all three hypotheses.

Keywords: hedonic model, public open space, housing sale price, regression analysis, accessibility score

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Authors: Altilio Rosa, Chirico Francesco, Foglia Goffredo

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In recent years, the number of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has significantly increased. The rapid development of commercial and recreational drones makes them an important part of our society. Despite the growing list of their applications, these vehicles pose a huge threat to civil and military installations: detection, classification and neutralization of such flying objects become an urgent need. Radar is an effective remote sensing tool for detecting and tracking flying objects, but scenarios characterized by the presence of a high number of tracks related to flying birds make especially challenging the drone detection task: operator PPI is cluttered with a huge number of potential threats and his reaction time can be severely affected. Flying birds compared to UAVs show similar velocity, RADAR cross-section and, in general, similar characteristics. Building from the absence of a single feature that is able to distinguish UAVs and birds, this paper uses a multiple features approach where an original feature selection technique is developed to feed binary classifiers trained to distinguish birds and UAVs. RADAR tracks acquired on the field and related to different UAVs and birds performing various trajectories were used to extract specifically designed target movement-related features based on velocity, trajectory and signal strength. An optimization strategy based on a genetic algorithm is also introduced to select the optimal subset of features and to estimate the performance of several classification algorithms (Neural network, SVM, Logistic regression…) both in terms of the number of selected features and misclassification error. Results show that the proposed methods are able to reduce the dimension of the data space and to remove almost all non-drone false targets with a suitable classification accuracy (higher than 95%).

Keywords: birds, classification, machine learning, UAVs

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Authors: Yepeng Cheng, Yasuhiko Morimoto

Abstract:

Customer relationship analysis is vital for retail stores, especially for supermarkets. The point of sale (POS) systems make it possible to record the daily purchasing behaviors of customers as an identification point of sale (ID-POS) database, which can be used to analyze customer behaviors of a supermarket. The customer value is an indicator based on ID-POS database for detecting the customer loyalty of a store. In general, there are many supermarkets in a city, and other nearby competitor supermarkets significantly affect the customer value of customers of a supermarket. However, it is impossible to get detailed ID-POS databases of competitor supermarkets. This study firstly focused on the customer value and distance between a customer's home and supermarkets in a city, and then constructed the models based on logistic regression analysis to analyze correlations between distance and purchasing behaviors only from a POS database of a supermarket chain. During the modeling process, there are three primary problems existed, including the incomparable problem of customer values, the multicollinearity problem among customer value and distance data, and the number of valid partial regression coefficients. The improved customer value, Huff’s gravity model, and inverse attractiveness frequency are considered to solve these problems. This paper presents three types of models based on these three methods for loyal customer classification and competitors’ influence analysis. In numerical experiments, all types of models are useful for loyal customer classification. The type of model, including all three methods, is the most superior one for evaluating the influence of the other nearby supermarkets on customers' purchasing of a supermarket chain from the viewpoint of valid partial regression coefficients and accuracy.

Keywords: customer value, Huff's Gravity Model, POS, Retailer

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Ya-Li Tsai

Abstract:

Nitrogen is a vital element crucial for crop growth, significantly influencing crop yield. In rice cultivation, farmers often apply substantial nitrogen fertilizer to maximize yields. However, excessive nitrogen application increases the risk of lodging and pest infestation, leading to yield losses. Additionally, conventional flooded irrigation methods consume significant water resources, necessitating precise agricultural and intelligent water management systems. In this study, it leveraged physiological data and field images captured by unmanned aerial vehicles, considering fertilizer treatment and irrigation as key factors. Statistical models incorporating rice physiological data, yield, and vegetation indices from image data were developed. Missing physiological data were addressed using multiple imputation and regression methods, and regression models were established using principal component analysis and stepwise regression. Target nitrogen accumulation at key growth stages was identified to optimize fertilizer application, with the difference between actual and target nitrogen accumulation guiding recommendations for ear dressing dosage. Field experiments conducted in 2022 validated the recommended ear dressing dosage, demonstrating no significant difference in final yield compared to traditional fertilizer levels under alternate wetting and drying irrigation. These findings highlight the efficacy of applying recommended dosages based on fertilizer decision models, offering the potential for reduced fertilizer use while maintaining yield in rice cultivation.

Keywords: intelligent fertilizer management, nitrogen top and ear dressing fertilizer, rice, yield optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 28