Search results for: misclassification

Authors: M. Khaled Abduesslam, Mohammed Ali, Basher H. Alsdai, Muhammad Nizam Inayati

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This paper presents the voltage problem location classification using performance of Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) in electrical power system for proper voltage problem location implemented by IEEE 39 bus New-England. The data was collected from the time domain simulation by using Power System Analysis Toolbox (PSAT). Outputs from simulation data such as voltage, phase angle, real power and reactive power were taken as input to estimate voltage stability at particular buses based on Power Transfer Stability Index (PTSI).The simulation data was carried out on the IEEE 39 bus test system by considering load bus increased on the system. To verify of the proposed LS-SVM its performance was compared to Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ). The results showed that LS-SVM is faster and better as compared to LVQ. The results also demonstrated that the LS-SVM was estimated by 0% misclassification whereas LVQ had 7.69% misclassification.

Keywords: IEEE 39 bus, least squares support vector machine, learning vector quantization, voltage collapse

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Authors: G. C. Tikkiwal, Mukesh Upadhyay

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During the surveillance operations at war or peace time, the Radar operator gets a scatter of targets over the screen. This may be a tracked vehicle like tank vis-à-vis T72, BMP etc, or it may be a wheeled vehicle like ALS, TATRA, 2.5Tonne, Shaktiman or moving the army, moving convoys etc. The radar operator selects one of the promising targets into single target tracking (STT) mode. Once the target is locked, the operator gets a typical audible signal into his headphones. With reference to the gained experience and training over the time, the operator then identifies the random target. But this process is cumbersome and is solely dependent on the skills of the operator, thus may lead to misclassification of the object. In this paper, we present a technique using mathematical and statistical methods like fast fourier transformation (FFT) and principal component analysis (PCA) to identify the random objects. The process of classification is based on transforming the audible signature of target into music octave-notes. The whole methodology is then automated by developing suitable software. This automation increases the efficiency of identification of the random target by reducing the chances of misclassification. This whole study is based on live data.

Keywords: radar target, FFT, principal component analysis, eigenvector, octave-notes, DSP

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Authors: G. C. Tikkiwal, Mukesh Upadhyay

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During the surveillance operations at war or peace time, the Radar operator gets a scatter of targets over the screen. This may be a tracked vehicle like tank vis-à-vis T72, BMP etc, or it may be a wheeled vehicle like ALS, TATRA, 2.5Tonne, Shaktiman or moving army, moving convoys etc. The Radar operator selects one of the promising targets into Single Target Tracking (STT) mode. Once the target is locked, the operator gets a typical audible signal into his headphones. With reference to the gained experience and training over the time, the operator then identifies the random target. But this process is cumbersome and is solely dependent on the skills of the operator, thus may lead to misclassification of the object. In this paper we present a technique using mathematical and statistical methods like Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify the random objects. The process of classification is based on transforming the audible signature of target into music octave-notes. The whole methodology is then automated by developing suitable software. This automation increases the efficiency of identification of the random target by reducing the chances of misclassification. This whole study is based on live data.

Keywords: radar target, fft, principal component analysis, eigenvector, octave-notes, dsp

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Tasanee Nacharoen

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Introduction: The problems of unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many research papers found that the performance of existing classifier tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k -nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is one method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. Hence, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest to us in investigating misclassification error rates for class-imbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification application of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Methods: Data from a healthy project for 599 staffs in a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The staffs were diagnosed into one of three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data along with the variables; diabetes risk group, age, gender, cholesterol, and BMI was analyzed and bootstrapped up to 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples show non-normality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. In finding the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions with three choices of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) or (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). Results: The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k = 3 or k = 4 and the prior probabilities of {non-risk:risk:diabetic} as {0.90:0.05:0.05} or {0.80:0.10:0.10} gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. Conclusion: The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Keywords: error rate, bootstrap, diabetes risk groups, k-nearest neighbors

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Authors: Elham Alaee, Mousa Shamsi, Hossein Ahmadi, Soroosh Nazem, Mohammad Hossein Sedaaghi

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Human face has a fundamental role in the appearance of individuals. So the importance of facial surgeries is undeniable. Thus, there is a need for the appropriate and accurate facial skin segmentation in order to extract different features. Since Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm doesn’t work appropriately for noisy images and outliers, in this paper we exploit Possibilistic C-Means (PCM) algorithm in order to segment the facial skin. For this purpose, first, we convert facial images from RGB to YCbCr color space. To evaluate performance of the proposed algorithm, the database of Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran was used. In order to have a better understanding from the proposed algorithm; FCM and Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms are also used for facial skin segmentation. The proposed method shows better results than the other segmentation methods. Results include misclassification error (0.032) and the region’s area error (0.045) for the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: facial image, segmentation, PCM, FCM, skin error, facial surgery

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Authors: Donghee Noh, Seonhyeong Kim, Junhwan Choi, Heegon Kim, Sooho Jung, Keunho Park

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In this paper, we describe an image post-processing method to enhance the performance of the parcel segmentation method using deep learning-based aerial images conducted in previous studies. The study results were evaluated using a confusion matrix, IoU, Precision, Recall, and F1-Score. In the case of the confusion matrix, it was observed that the false positive value, which is the result of misclassification, was greatly reduced as a result of image post-processing. The average IoU was 0.9688 in the image post-processing, which is higher than the deep learning result of 0.8362, and the F1-Score was also 0.9822 in the image post-processing, which was higher than the deep learning result of 0.8850. As a result of the experiment, it was found that the proposed technique positively complements the deep learning results in segmenting the parcel of interest.

Keywords: aerial image, image process, machine vision, open field smart farm, segmentation

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Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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Authors: Shahadut Hossain

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Measurement errors in continuous covariates and/or misclassifications in categorical covariates are common in epidemiological studies. Regression analysis ignoring such mismeasurements seriously biases the estimated main and interaction effects of covariates on the outcome of interest. Thus, adjustments for such mismeasurements are necessary. In this research, we propose a Bayesian parametric framework for eliminating deleterious impacts of covariate mismeasurements in logistic regression. The proposed adjustment method is unified and thus can be applied to any generalized linear and non-linear regression models. Furthermore, adjustment for covariate mismeasurements requires validation data usually in the form of either gold standard measurements or replicates of the mismeasured covariates on a subset of the study population. Initial investigation shows that adequacy of such adjustment depends on the sizes of main and validation samples, especially when prevalences of the categorical covariates are low. Thus, we investigate the impact of main and validation sample sizes on the adjusted estimates, and provide a general guideline about these sample sizes based on simulation studies.

Keywords: measurement errors, misclassification, mismeasurement, validation sample, Bayesian adjustment

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Authors: Ahmed S. Afifi, Ahmed Magdy

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Satellite monitoring is an essential tool to study, understand, and map large-scale environmental changes that affect humans, climate, and biodiversity. The Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instrument provides a high collection of data in all-weather, short revisit time, and high spatial resolution that can be used effectively in flood management. Floods occur when an overflow of water submerges dry land that requires to be distinguished from flooded areas. In this study, we use global flood mapper (GFM), a new google earth engine application that allows users to quickly map floods using Sentinel-1 SAR. The GFM enables the users to adjust manually the flood map parameters, e.g., the threshold for Z-value for VV and VH bands and the elevation and slope mask threshold. The composite R:G:B image results by coupling the bands of Sentinel-1 (VH:VV:VH) reduces false classification to a large extent compared to using one separate band (e.g., VH polarization band). The flood mapping algorithm in the GFM and the Otsu thresholding are compared with Sentinel-2 optical data. And the results show that the GFM algorithm can overcome the misclassification of a flooded area in An Giang, Vietnam.

Keywords: SAR backscattering, Sentinel-1, flood mapping, disaster

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models on two different realworld electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, machine learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias

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Authors: Yasaswi Palagummi, Sareh Rowlands

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Generalised Zero-Shot Learning, often known as GZSL, is an advanced variant of zero-shot learning in which the samples in the unseen category may be either seen or unseen. GZSL methods typically have a bias towards the seen classes because they learn a model to perform recognition for both the seen and unseen classes using data samples from the seen classes. This frequently leads to the misclassification of data from the unseen classes into the seen classes, making the task of GZSL more challenging. In this work of ours, to solve the GZSL problem, we propose an approach leveraging the Shifted Window based Self-Attention in the Swin Transformer (Swin-GZSL) to work in the inductive GSZL problem setting. We run experiments on three popular benchmark datasets: CUB, SUN, and AWA2, which are specifically used for ZSL and its other variants. The results show that our model based on Swin Transformer has achieved state-of-the-art harmonic mean for two datasets -AWA2 and SUN and near-state-of-the-art for the other dataset - CUB. More importantly, this technique has a linear computational complexity, which reduces training time significantly. We have also observed less bias than most of the existing GZSL models.

Keywords: generalised, zero-shot learning, inductive learning, shifted-window attention, Swin transformer, vision transformer

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Authors: Malarvizhi Selvaraj, Paul Fergus, Andy Shaw

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Uterine contractions produced during labour have the potential to damage the foetus by diminishing the maternal blood flow to the placenta. In order to observe this phenomenon labour and delivery are routinely monitored using cardiotocography monitors. An obstetrician usually makes the diagnosis of foetus hypoxia by interpreting cardiotocography recordings. However, cardiotocography capture and interpretation is time-consuming and subjective, often lead to misclassification that causes damage to the foetus and unnecessary caesarean section. Both of these have a high impact on the foetus and the cost to the national healthcare services. Automatic detection of foetal heart rate may be an objective solution to help to reduce unnecessary medical interventions, as reported in several studies. This paper aim is to provide a system for better identification and interpretation of abnormalities of the fetal heart rate using RStudio. An open dataset of 552 Intrapartum recordings has been filtered with 0.034 Hz filters in an attempt to remove noise while keeping as much of the discriminative data as possible. Features were chosen following an extensive literature review, which concluded with FIGO features such as acceleration, deceleration, mean, variance and standard derivation. The five features were extracted from 552 recordings. Using these features, recordings will be classified either normal or abnormal. If the recording is abnormal, it has got more chances of hypoxia.

Keywords: cardiotocography, foetus, intrapartum, hypoxia

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

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Authors: Ren Moses, Jaqueline Masaki

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This paper addresses the need for accurate and updated vehicle classification system through a thorough evaluation of vehicle class categories to identify errors arising from the existing system and proposing modifications. The data collected from two permanent traffic monitoring sites in Florida were used to evaluate the performance of the existing vehicle classification table. The vehicle data were collected and classified by the automatic vehicle classifier (AVC), and a video camera was used to obtain ground truth data. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) vehicle classification definitions were used to define vehicle classes from the video and compare them to the data generated by AVC in order to identify the sources of misclassification. Six types of errors were identified. Modifications were made in the classification table to improve the classification accuracy. The results of this study include the development of updated vehicle classification table with a reduction in total error by 5.1%, a step by step procedure to use for evaluation of vehicle classification studies and recommendations to improve FHWA 13-category rule set. The recommendations for the FHWA 13-category rule set indicate the need for the vehicle classification definitions in this scheme to be updated to reflect the distribution of current traffic. The presented results will be of interest to States’ transportation departments and consultants, researchers, engineers, designers, and planners who require accurate vehicle classification information for planning, designing and maintenance of transportation infrastructures.

Keywords: vehicle classification, traffic monitoring, pavement design, highway traffic

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Authors: R. Periyasamy, Deepak Joshi, Sneh Anand

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Foot posture assessment is important to evaluate foot type, causing gait and postural defects in all age groups. Although different methods are used for classification of foot arch type in clinical/research examination, there is no clear approach for selecting the most appropriate measurement system. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a system for evaluation of foot type as clinical decision-making aids for diagnosis of flat and normal arch based on the Arch Index (AI) and foot pressure distribution parameter - Power Ratio (PR) data. The accuracy of the system was evaluated for 27 subjects with age ranging from 24 to 65 years. Foot area measurements (hind foot, mid foot, and forefoot) were acquired simultaneously from foot pressure intensity image using portable PedoPowerGraph system and analysis of the image in frequency domain to obtain foot pressure distribution parameter - PR data. From our results, we obtain 100% classification accuracy of normal and flat foot by using the linear discriminant analysis method. We observe there is no misclassification of foot types because of incorporating foot pressure distribution data instead of only arch index (AI). We found that the mid-foot pressure distribution ratio data and arch index (AI) value are well correlated to foot arch type based on visual analysis. Therefore, this paper suggests that the proposed system is accurate and easy to determine foot arch type from arch index (AI), as well as incorporating mid-foot pressure distribution ratio data instead of physical area of contact. Hence, such computational tool based system can help the clinicians for assessment of foot structure and cross-check their diagnosis of flat foot from mid-foot pressure distribution.

Keywords: arch index, computational tool, static foot pressure intensity image, foot pressure distribution, linear discriminant analysis

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Authors: Adesuyi Ayodeji Steve, Zahn Munch

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This study investigates the use of MODIS NDVI to identify agricultural land cover change areas on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend in the study area. An ISODATA classification was performed on the MODIS imagery to select only the agricultural class producing 3 class groups namely: agriculture, agriculture/semi-natural, and semi-natural. NDVI signatures were created for the time series to identify areas dominated by cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data. The NDVI signature curve and training samples aided in creating a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9. From the training samples two classification models were built in WEKA using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 included ISODATA classification and Model 2 without, both having accuracies of 90.7% and 88.3% respectively. The two models were used to classify the whole study area, thus producing two land cover maps with Model 1 and 2 having classification accuracies of 77% and 80% respectively. Model 2 was used to create change detection maps for all the other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. 41% of the catchment comprises of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyard largely remained constant over the years, with some conversion to vineyard (1%) from other land cover classes. Some of the changes might be as a result of misclassification and crop rotation system.

Keywords: change detection, land cover, modis, NDVI

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Authors: Nur Sahver Uslu, Ali̇ Hakan Büyüklü

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Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) costs are significant in the aviation industry. On the other hand, companies that provide MRO services to the aviation industry but are not dominant in the sector, need to determine the right strategies for sustainable profitability in a competitive environment. This study examined the operational real data of a small medium enterprise (SME) MRO company where analytical methods are not widely applied. The company's customers were divided into two categories: airline companies and non-airline companies, and the variables that best explained profitability were analyzed with Logistic Regression for each category and the results were compared. First, data reduction was applied to the transformed variables that went through the data cleaning and preparation stages, and the variables to be included in the model were decided. The misclassification rates for the logistic regression results concerning both customer categories are similar, indicating consistent model performance across different segments. Less profit margin is obtained from airline customers, which can be explained by the variables part description, time to quotation (TTQ), turnaround time (TAT), manager, part cost, and labour cost. The higher profit margin obtained from non-airline customers is explained only by the variables part description, part cost, and labour cost. Based on the two models, it can be stated that it is significantly more challenging for the MRO company, which is the subject of our study, to achieve profitability from Airline customers. While operational processes and organizational structure also affect the profit from airline customers, only the type of parts and costs determine the profit for non-airlines.

Keywords: aircraft, aircraft components, aviation, data analytics, data science, gini index, maintenance, repair, and overhaul, MRO, logistic regression, profit, variable clustering, variable reduction

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Authors: Altilio Rosa, Chirico Francesco, Foglia Goffredo

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In recent years, the number of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has significantly increased. The rapid development of commercial and recreational drones makes them an important part of our society. Despite the growing list of their applications, these vehicles pose a huge threat to civil and military installations: detection, classification and neutralization of such flying objects become an urgent need. Radar is an effective remote sensing tool for detecting and tracking flying objects, but scenarios characterized by the presence of a high number of tracks related to flying birds make especially challenging the drone detection task: operator PPI is cluttered with a huge number of potential threats and his reaction time can be severely affected. Flying birds compared to UAVs show similar velocity, RADAR cross-section and, in general, similar characteristics. Building from the absence of a single feature that is able to distinguish UAVs and birds, this paper uses a multiple features approach where an original feature selection technique is developed to feed binary classifiers trained to distinguish birds and UAVs. RADAR tracks acquired on the field and related to different UAVs and birds performing various trajectories were used to extract specifically designed target movement-related features based on velocity, trajectory and signal strength. An optimization strategy based on a genetic algorithm is also introduced to select the optimal subset of features and to estimate the performance of several classification algorithms (Neural network, SVM, Logistic regression…) both in terms of the number of selected features and misclassification error. Results show that the proposed methods are able to reduce the dimension of the data space and to remove almost all non-drone false targets with a suitable classification accuracy (higher than 95%).

Keywords: birds, classification, machine learning, UAVs

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Authors: Gayathri Nagarajan, L. D. Dhinesh Babu

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Health care is one of the prominent industries that generate voluminous data thereby finding the need of machine learning techniques with big data solutions for efficient processing and prediction. Missing data, incomplete data, real time streaming data, sensitive data, privacy, heterogeneity are few of the common challenges to be addressed for efficient processing and mining of health care data. In comparison with other applications, accuracy and fast processing are of higher importance for health care applications as they are related to the human life directly. Though there are many machine learning techniques and big data solutions used for efficient processing and prediction in health care data, different techniques and different frameworks are proved to be effective for different applications largely depending on the characteristics of the datasets. In this paper, we present a framework that uses ensemble machine learning technique gradient boosted trees for data classification in health care big data. The framework is built on Spark platform which is fast in comparison with other traditional frameworks. Unlike other works that focus on a single technique, our work presents a comparison of six different machine learning techniques along with gradient boosted trees on datasets of different characteristics. Five benchmark health care datasets are considered for experimentation, and the results of different machine learning techniques are discussed in comparison with gradient boosted trees. The metric chosen for comparison is misclassification error rate and the run time of the algorithms. The goal of this paper is to i) Compare the performance of gradient boosted trees with other machine learning techniques in Spark platform specifically for health care big data and ii) Discuss the results from the experiments conducted on datasets of different characteristics thereby drawing inference and conclusion. The experimental results show that the accuracy is largely dependent on the characteristics of the datasets for other machine learning techniques whereas gradient boosting trees yields reasonably stable results in terms of accuracy without largely depending on the dataset characteristics.

Keywords: big data analytics, ensemble machine learning, gradient boosted trees, Spark platform

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Authors: Insaf Ajili, Malik Mallem, Jean-Yves Didier

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Human motion recognition has been extensively increased in recent years due to its importance in a wide range of applications, such as human-computer interaction, intelligent surveillance, augmented reality, content-based video compression and retrieval, etc. However, it is still regarded as a challenging task especially in realistic scenarios. It can be seen as a general machine learning problem which requires an effective human motion representation and an efficient learning method. In this work, we introduce a descriptor based on Laban Movement Analysis technique, a formal and universal language for human movement, to capture both quantitative and qualitative aspects of movement. We use Discrete Hidden Markov Model (DHMM) for training and classification motions. We improve the classification algorithm by proposing two DHMMs for each motion class to process the motion sequence in two different directions, forward and backward. Such modification allows avoiding the misclassification that can happen when recognizing similar motions. Two experiments are conducted. In the first one, we evaluate our method on a public dataset, the Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect gesture data set (MSRC-12) which is a widely used dataset for evaluating action/gesture recognition methods. In the second experiment, we build a dataset composed of 10 gestures(Introduce yourself, waving, Dance, move, turn left, turn right, stop, sit down, increase velocity, decrease velocity) performed by 20 persons. The evaluation of the system includes testing the efficiency of our descriptor vector based on LMA with basic DHMM method and comparing the recognition results of the modified DHMM with the original one. Experiment results demonstrate that our method outperforms most of existing methods that used the MSRC-12 dataset, and a near perfect classification rate in our dataset.

Keywords: human motion recognition, motion representation, Laban Movement Analysis, Discrete Hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Jularat Chumnaul

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In forensic science, corpses from various homicides are different; there are both complete and incomplete, depending on causes of death or forms of homicide. For example, some corpses are cut into pieces, some are camouflaged by dumping into the river, some are buried, some are burned to destroy the evidence, and others. If the corpses are incomplete, it can lead to the difficulty of personally identifying because some tissues and bones are destroyed. To specify gender of the corpses from skeletal remains, the most precise method is DNA identification. However, this method is costly and takes longer so that other identification techniques are used instead. The first technique that is widely used is considering the features of bones. In general, an evidence from the corpses such as some pieces of bones, especially the skull and pelvis can be used to identify their gender. To use this technique, forensic scientists are required observation skills in order to classify the difference between male and female bones. Although this technique is uncomplicated, saving time and cost, and the forensic scientists can fairly accurately determine gender by using this technique (apparently an accuracy rate of 90% or more), the crucial disadvantage is there are only some positions of skeleton that can be used to specify gender such as supraorbital ridge, nuchal crest, temporal lobe, mandible, and chin. Therefore, the skeletal remains that will be used have to be complete. The other technique that is widely used for gender specifying in forensic science and archeology is skeletal measurements. The advantage of this method is it can be used in several positions in one piece of bones, and it can be used even if the bones are not complete. In this study, the classification and cluster analysis are applied to this technique, including the Kth Nearest Neighbor Classification, Classification Tree, Ward Linkage Cluster, K-mean Cluster, and Two Step Cluster. The data contains 507 particular individuals and 9 skeletal measurements (diameter measurements), and the performance of five methods are investigated by considering the apparent error rate (APER). The results from this study indicate that the Two Step Cluster and Kth Nearest Neighbor method seem to be suitable to specify gender from human skeletal remains because both yield small apparent error rate of 0.20% and 4.14%, respectively. On the other hand, the Classification Tree, Ward Linkage Cluster, and K-mean Cluster method are not appropriate since they yield large apparent error rate of 10.65%, 10.65%, and 16.37%, respectively. However, there are other ways to evaluate the performance of classification such as an estimate of the error rate using the holdout procedure or misclassification costs, and the difference methods can make the different conclusions.

Keywords: skeletal measurements, classification, cluster, apparent error rate

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Authors: Mmamapudi Kubjane, Natacha Berkowitz, Rene Goliath, Naomi S. Levitt, Robert J. Wilkinson, Tolu Oni

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Background: South Africa remains a high tuberculosis (TB) burden country globally and the burden of diabetes – a TB risk factor is growing rapidly. As an infectious disease, TB also induces transient hyperglycaemia. Therefore, screening for diabetes in newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients may result in misclassification of transient hyperglycaemia as diabetes. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine and compare the prevalence of hyperglycaemia (diabetes and impaired glucose regulation (IGR)) in TB patients and to assess the cross-sectional association between TB and hyperglycaemia at enrolment and after three months of follow-up. Methods: Consecutive adult TB and non-TB participants presenting at a TB clinic in Cape Town were enrolled in this cross-sectional study and follow-up between July 2013 and August 2015. Diabetes was defined as self-reported diabetes, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 7.0 mmol·L⁻¹ or glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%. IGR was defined as FPG 5.5– < 7.0 mmol·L⁻¹ or HbA1c 5.7– < 6.5%. TB patients initiated treatment. After three months, all participants were followed up and screened for diabetes again. The association between TB and hyperglycaemia was assessed using logistic regression adjusting for potential confounders including sex, age, income, hypertension, waist circumference, previous prisoner, marital status, work status, HIV status. Results: Diabetes screening was performed in 852 participants (414 TB and 438 non-TB) at enrolment and in 639 (304 TB and 335 non-TB) at three-month follow-up. The prevalence of HIV-1 infection was 69.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 64.9–73.8 %) among TB patients, and 58.2% (95% CI, 53.5–62.8 %) among the non-TB participants. Glycaemic levels were much higher in TB patients than in the non-TB participants but decreased over time. Among TB patients, the prevalence of IGR was 65.2% (95% CI 60.1 - 69.9) at enrollment and 21.5% (95% CI 17.2-26.5) at follow-up; and was 50% (45.1 - 54.94) and 32% (95% CI 27.9 - 38.0) respectively, among non-TB participants. The prevalence of diabetes in TB patients was 12.5% (95% CI 9.69 – 16.12%) at enrolment and 9.2% (95% CI, 6.43–13.03%) at follow-up; and was 10.04% (95% CI, 7.55–13.24%) and 8.06% (95% CI, 5.58–11.51) respectively, among non-TB participants. The association between TB and IGT was significant at enrolment (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.26 (95% CI, 1.55-3.31) but disappeared at follow-up 0.84 (0.53 - 1.36). However, the TB-diabetes association remained positive and significant both at enrolment (2.41 (95% CI, 1.3-4.34)) and follow-up (OR 3.31 (95% CI, 1.5 - 7.25)). Conclusion: Transient hyperglycaemia exists during tuberculosis. This has implications on diabetes screening in TB patients and suggests a need for diabetes confirmation tests during or after TB treatment. Nonetheless, the association between TB and diabetes noted at enrolment persists at 3 months highlighting the importance of diabetes control and prevention for TB control. Further research is required to investigate the impact of hyperglycaemia (transient or otherwise) on TB outcomes to ascertain the clinical significance of hyperglycemia at enrolment.

Keywords: diabetes, impaired glucose regulation, transient hyperglycaemia, tuberculosis

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Authors: Dangut Maren David, Skaf Zakwan

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Adequate monitoring of vehicle component in other to obtain high uptime is the goal of predictive maintenance, the major challenge faced by businesses in industries is the significant cost associated with a delay in service delivery due to system downtime. Most of those businesses are interested in predicting those problems and proactively prevent them in advance before it occurs, which is the core advantage of Prognostic Health Management (PHM) application. The recent emergence of industry 4.0 or industrial internet of things (IIoT) has led to the need for monitoring systems activities and enhancing system-to-system or component-to- component interactions, this has resulted to a large generation of data known as big data. Analysis of big data represents an increasingly important, however, due to complexity inherently in the dataset such as imbalance classification problems, it becomes extremely difficult to build a model with accurate high precision. Data-driven predictive modeling for condition-based maintenance (CBM) has recently drowned research interest with growing attention to both academics and industries. The large data generated from industrial process inherently comes with a different degree of complexity which posed a challenge for analytics. Thus, imbalance classification problem exists perversely in industrial datasets which can affect the performance of learning algorithms yielding to poor classifier accuracy in model development. Misclassification of faults can result in unplanned breakdown leading economic loss. In this paper, an advanced approach for handling imbalance classification problem is proposed and then a prognostic model for predicting aircraft component replacement is developed to predict component replacement in advanced by exploring aircraft historical data, the approached is based on hybrid ensemble-based method which improves the prediction of the minority class during learning, we also investigate the impact of our approach on multiclass imbalance problem. We validate the feasibility and effectiveness in terms of the performance of our approach using real-world aircraft operation and maintenance datasets, which spans over 7 years. Our approach shows better performance compared to other similar approaches. We also validate our approach strength for handling multiclass imbalanced dataset, our results also show good performance compared to other based classifiers.

Keywords: prognostics, data-driven, imbalance classification, deep learning

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Authors: Ayesha Anjum, Arbaz Basha

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Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) are the actively accreting centers of the galaxies that host supermassive black holes. AGN emits radiation in all wavelengths and also shows variability across all the wavelength bands. The analysis of flux variability tells us about the morphology of the site of emission radiation. Some of the major classifications of AGN are (a) Blazars, with featureless spectra. They are subclassified as BLLacertae objects, Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars (FSRQs), and others; (b) Seyferts with prominent emission line features are classified into Broad Line, Narrow Line Seyferts of Type 1 and Type 2 (c) quasars, and other types. Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) is an optical telescope based in Mexico that has observed and classified billions of objects based on automated photometric and spectroscopic methods. A sample of blazars is obtained from the third Fermi catalog. For variability analysis, we searched for light curves for these objects in Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and Near Earth Orbit WISE (NEOWISE) in two bands: W1 (3.4 microns) and W2 (4.6 microns), reducing the final sample to 256 objects. These objects are also classified into 155 BLLacs, 99 FSRQs, and 2 Narrow Line Seyferts, namely, PMNJ0948+0022 and PKS1502+036. Mid-infrared variability studies of these objects would be a contribution to the literature. With this as motivation, the present work is focused on studying a final sample of 256 objects in general and the Seyferts in particular. Owing to the fact that the classification is automated, SDSS has miclassified these objects into quasars, galaxies, and stars. Reasons for the misclassification are explained in this work. The variability analysis of these objects is done using the method of flux amplitude variability and excess variance. The sample consists of observations in both W1 and W2 bands. PMN J0948+0022 is observed between MJD from 57154.79 to 58810.57. PKS 1502+036 is observed between MJD from 57232.42 to 58517.11, which amounts to a period of over six years. The data is divided into different epochs spanning not more than 1.2 days. In all the epochs, the sources are found to be variable in both W1 and W2 bands. This confirms that the object is variable in mid-infrared wavebands in both long and short timescales. Also, the sources are observed for color variability. Objects either show a bluer when brighter trend (BWB) or a redder when brighter trend (RWB). The possible claim for the object to be BWB (present objects) is that the longer wavelength radiation emitted by the source can be suppressed by the high-energy radiation from the central source. Another result is that the smallest radius of the emission source is one day since the epoch span used in this work is one day. The mass of the black holes at the centers of these sources is found to be less than or equal to 108 solar masses, respectively.

Keywords: active galaxies, variability, Seyfert galaxies, SDSS, WISE

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Authors: Diogo José Morgado Rebelo, Francisco António Carneiro Pacheco de Andrade, Paulo Jorge Freitas de Oliveira Novais

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Not everything in AI-power consumer credit scoring turns out to be a wonder. When using AI in Creditworthiness Assessment (CWA), opacity and unfairness ‘sins’ must be considered to the task be deemed Responsible. AI software is not always 100% accurate, which can lead to misclassification. Discrimination of some groups can be exponentiated. A hetero personalized identity can be imposed on the individual(s) affected. Also, autonomous CWA sometimes lacks transparency when using black box models. However, for this intended purpose, human analysts ‘on-the-loop’ might not be the best remedy consumers are looking for in credit. This study seeks to explore the legality of implementing a Multi-Agent System (MAS) framework in consumer CWA to ensure compliance with the regulation outlined in Article 14(4) of the Proposal for an Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA), dated 21 April 2021 (as per the last corrigendum by the European Parliament on 19 April 2024), Especially with the adoption of Art. 18(8)(9) of the EU Directive 2023/2225, of 18 October, which will go into effect on 20 November 2026, there should be more emphasis on the need for hybrid oversight in AI-driven scoring to ensure fairness and transparency. In fact, the range of EU regulations on AI-based consumer credit will soon impact the AI lending industry locally and globally, as shown by the broad territorial scope of AIA’s Art. 2. Consequently, engineering the law of consumer’s CWA is imperative. Generally, the proposed MAS framework consists of several layers arranged in a specific sequence, as follows: firstly, the Data Layer gathers legitimate predictor sets from traditional sources; then, the Decision Support System Layer, whose Neural Network model is trained using k-fold Cross Validation, provides recommendations based on the feeder data; the eXplainability (XAI) multi-structure comprises Three-Step-Agents; and, lastly, the Oversight Layer has a 'Bottom Stop' for analysts to intervene in a timely manner. From the analysis, one can assure a vital component of this software is the XAY layer. It appears as a transparent curtain covering the AI’s decision-making process, enabling comprehension, reflection, and further feasible oversight. Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) might act as a pillar by offering counterfactual insights. SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP), another agent in the XAI layer, could address potential discrimination issues, identifying the contribution of each feature to the prediction. Alternatively, for thin or no file consumers, the Suggestion Agent can promote financial inclusion. It uses lawful alternative sources such as the share of wallet, among others, to search for more advantageous solutions to incomplete evaluation appraisals based on genetic programming. Overall, this research aspires to bring the concept of Machine-Centered Anthropocentrism to the table of EU policymaking. It acknowledges that, when put into service, credit analysts no longer exert full control over the data-driven entities programmers have given ‘birth’ to. With similar explanatory agents under supervision, AI itself can become self-accountable, prioritizing human concerns and values. AI decisions should not be vilified inherently. The issue lies in how they are integrated into decision-making and whether they align with non-discrimination principles and transparency rules.

Keywords: creditworthiness assessment, hybrid oversight, machine-centered anthropocentrism, EU policymaking

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Authors: Qiaosi Li, Frankie Kwan Kit Wong, Tung Fung

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Lightweight unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) loading with novel sensors offers a low cost approach for data acquisition in complex environment. This study established a framework for applying UAV system in complex environment quick mapping and assessed the performance of UAV-based hyperspectral image and digital surface model (DSM) derived from photogrammetric point clouds for 13 species classification in wetland area Mai Po Inner Deep Bay Ramsar Site, Hong Kong. The study area was part of shallow bay with flat terrain and the major species including reedbed and four mangroves: Kandelia obovata, Aegiceras corniculatum, Acrostichum auerum and Acanthus ilicifolius. Other species involved in various graminaceous plants, tarbor, shrub and invasive species Mikania micrantha. In particular, invasive species climbed up to the mangrove canopy caused damage and morphology change which might increase species distinguishing difficulty. Hyperspectral images were acquired by Headwall Nano sensor with spectral range from 400nm to 1000nm and 0.06m spatial resolution image. A sequence of multi-view RGB images was captured with 0.02m spatial resolution and 75% overlap. Hyperspectral image was corrected for radiative and geometric distortion while high resolution RGB images were matched to generate maximum dense point clouds. Furtherly, a 5 cm grid digital surface model (DSM) was derived from dense point clouds. Multiple feature reduction methods were compared to identify the efficient method and to explore the significant spectral bands in distinguishing different species. Examined methods including stepwise discriminant analysis (DA), support vector machine (SVM) and minimum noise fraction (MNF) transformation. Subsequently, spectral subsets composed of the first 20 most importance bands extracted by SVM, DA and MNF, and multi-source subsets adding extra DSM to 20 spectrum bands were served as input in maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) and SVM classifier to compare the classification result. Classification results showed that feature reduction methods from best to worst are MNF transformation, DA and SVM. MNF transformation accuracy was even higher than all bands input result. Selected bands frequently laid along the green peak, red edge and near infrared. Additionally, DA found that chlorophyll absorption red band and yellow band were also important for species classification. In terms of 3D data, DSM enhanced the discriminant capacity among low plants, arbor and mangrove. Meanwhile, DSM largely reduced misclassification due to the shadow effect and morphological variation of inter-species. In respect to classifier, nonparametric SVM outperformed than MLC for high dimension and multi-source data in this study. SVM classifier tended to produce higher overall accuracy and reduce scattered patches although it costs more time than MLC. The best result was obtained by combining MNF components and DSM in SVM classifier. This study offered a precision species distribution survey solution for inaccessible wetland area with low cost of time and labour. In addition, findings relevant to the positive effect of DSM as well as spectral feature identification indicated that the utility of UAV-borne hyperspectral and photogrammetry deriving 3D data is promising in further research on wetland species such as bio-parameters modelling and biological invasion monitoring.

Keywords: digital surface model (DSM), feature reduction, hyperspectral, photogrammetric point cloud, species mapping, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)

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