Search results for: regime shift

Authors: Mladen Milicevic

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This paper explores how the explosion of computer technologies has allowed for the democratization of many aspects of human activities, which were in the past only available through the institutionalized channels of production and distribution. We will going to use as an example the music recording industries, just to illustrate this process, but the analogies to other activities and aspects of human life can easily be extrapolated from it.

Keywords: aura, democratization, music industry, music sharing, paradigm-shift

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Authors: K. Ö. Kartal, L. Maul, M. Hägele

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With the development of new technologies come additional opportunities for the founding of companies and new markets to be created. The barriers to entry are lowered and technology makes old business models obsolete. Incumbent companies have to be adaptable to this quickly changing environment. They have to start the process of digital maturation and they have to be able to adapt quickly to new and drastic changes that might arise. One of the biggest barriers for organizations in order to do so is their culture. This paper shows the core elements of a corporate culture that supports the process of digital maturation in incumbent organizations. Furthermore, it is explored how ideation and innovation can be used in a strategy in order to facilitate these core elements of culture that promote digital maturity. Focus areas are identified for the design of ideation strategies, with the aim to make the facilitation and incitation process more effective, short to long term. Therefore, one in-depth case study is conducted with data collection from interviews, observation, document review and surveys. The findings indicate that digital maturity is connected to cultural shift and 11 relevant elements of digital culture are identified which have to be considered. Based on these 11 core elements, five focus areas that need to be regarded in the design of a strategy that uses ideation and innovation to facilitate the cultural shift are identified. These are: Focus topics, rewards and communication, structure and frequency, regions and new online formats.

Keywords: digital transformation, innovation management, ideation strategy, creativity culture, change

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Authors: Shilpa Khobragade, Carlos Da Silva Granja, Niklas Sandström, Igor Efimov, Victor P. Ostanin, Wouter van der Wijngaart, David Klenerman, Sourav K. Ghosh

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Rapid, label-free and direct detection of pathogenic bacteria is critical for the prevention of disease outbreaks. This paper for the first time attempts to probe the nonlinear acoustic response of quartz crystal resonator (QCR) functionalized with specific DNA aptamers for direct detection and quantification of viable E. coli KCTC 2571 bacteria. DNA aptamers were immobilized through biotin and streptavidin conjugation, onto the gold surface of QCR to capture the target bacteria and the detection was accomplished by shift in amplitude of the peak 3f signal (3 times the drive frequency) upon binding, when driven near fundamental resonance frequency. The developed nonlinear acoustic aptasensor system demonstrated better reliability than conventional resonance frequency shift and energy dissipation monitoring that were recorded simultaneously. This sensing system could directly detect 10⁽⁵⁾ cells/mL target bacteria within 30 min or less and had high specificity towards E. coli KCTC 2571 bacteria as compared to the same concentration of S.typhi bacteria. Aptasensor response was observed for the bacterial suspensions ranging from 10⁽⁵⁾-10⁽⁸⁾ cells/mL. Conclusively, this nonlinear acoustic aptasensor is simple to use, gives real-time output, cost-effective and has the potential for rapid, specific, label-free direction detection of bacteria.

Keywords: acoustic, aptasensor, detection, nonlinear

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Authors: Krishnendu Mukhopadhyay, Subhashis Kundu, Mayank Tiwari, Sameeran Pani, Padmapal, Uttam Singh

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Blast Furnace is a counter current process where burden descends from top and hot gases ascend from bottom and chemically reduce iron oxides into liquid hot metal. One of the major problems of blast furnace operation is the erratic burden descent inside furnace. Sometimes this problem is so acute that burden descent stops resulting in Hanging and instability of the furnace. This problem is very frequent in blast furnaces worldwide and results in huge production losses. This situation becomes more adverse when blast furnaces are operated at low coke rate and high coal injection rate with adverse raw materials like high alumina ore and high coke ash. For last three years, H-Blast Furnace Tata Steel was able to reduce coke rate from 450 kg/thm to 350 kg/thm with an increase in coal injection to 200 kg/thm which are close to world benchmarks and expand profitability. To sustain this regime, elimination of irregularities of blast furnace like hanging, channeling, and scaffolding is very essential. In this paper, sustaining of zero hanging spell for consecutive three years with low coke rate operation by improvement in burden characteristics, burden distribution, changes in slag regime, casting practices and adequate automation of the furnace operation has been illustrated. Models have been created to comprehend and upgrade the blast furnace process understanding. A model has been developed to predict the process of maintaining slag viscosity in desired range to attain proper burden permeability. A channeling prediction model has also been developed to understand channeling symptoms so that early actions can be initiated. The models have helped to a great extent in standardizing the control decisions of operators at H-Blast Furnace of Tata Steel, Jamshedpur and thus achieving process stability for last three years.

Keywords: hanging, channelling, blast furnace, coke

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Authors: H. Ait Abderrahmane, M. Fayed, H. D. Ng, G. H. Vatistas

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The present paper expands details and confirms the transition mechanism between two subsequent polygonal patterns of the hollow-core vortex. Using power spectral analysis, we confirm in this work that the transition from any N-gon to (N+1)-gon pattern observed within a hollow-core vortex of shallow rotating flows occurs in two steps. The regime was quasi-periodic before the frequencies lock (synchronization). The ratios of locking frequencies were found to be equal to (N-1)/N.

Keywords: patterns, swirling, quasi-periodic, synchronization

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Authors: Sriram Kashyap Prasad, Ionut Florescu

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This study models the intraday asset prices as driven by Markov process. This work identifies the latent states of the Hidden Markov model, using limit order book data (trades and quotes) to continuously estimate the states throughout the day. This work builds a trading strategy using estimated states to generate signals. The strategy utilizes current state to recalibrate buy/ sell levels and the transition between states to trigger stop-loss when adverse price movements occur. The proposed trading strategy is tested on the Stevens High Frequency Trading (SHIFT) platform. SHIFT is a highly realistic market simulator with functionalities for creating an artificial market simulation by deploying agents, trading strategies, distributing initial wealth, etc. In the implementation several assets on the NASDAQ exchange are used for testing. In comparison to a strategy with static buy/ sell levels, this study shows that the number of limit orders that get matched and executed can be increased. Executing limit orders earns rebates on NASDAQ. The system can capture jumps in the limit order book prices, provide dynamic buy/sell levels and trigger stop loss signals to improve the PnL (Profit and Loss) performance of the strategy.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, Hidden Markov model, high frequency trading, limit order book learning

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding

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Authors: Wesahl Domingo, Prinslean Mahery

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Our paper focuses on the rights’ to contact and care of fathers in the heterosexual context, despite the reality of same sex parenting in South Africa. We argue that despite the new South African Children’s Act framework creating a shift from the idea of parental power over a child to the notion that parents have parental responsibilities and rights in respect of a child. This shift has however not fundamentally changed the constant battle that parents and other interested parties have over children. In most cases it is fathers who must battle to either maintain contact with their child/ren or fight to have care (which includes custody) of their child/ren. This is the case whether or not the father was married to the mother of the child in question. In part one of the paper, we deal with the historical development of rights to care and contact and describe the current system in the context of case law and legislation in South Africa. Part two provides a critical analysis of a few anthologies of “what fathers are complaining about.” In conclusion, in part three, we outline the way forward –“moving beyond the adversarial approach” through the “care of ethics approach.” So what is the care perspective? The care perspective is a relational ethic which views the primary moral concern as of creating and sustaining responsive connection to others. We apply the care of ethics approach to parenting plans and family law mediation in the context of fathers’ rights to care and contact. We argue by avoiding the adversarial system and engaging in a problem solving process focused on finding solutions for the future, divorcing parents can turn their attention to their children rather than battling each other.

Keywords: fathers' right to care, contact, custody, family law

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Authors: Lerato Dixon, Thorsten Chmura

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This paper explores whether ethnic identity in Zimbabwe leads to discriminatory behaviour and the degree to which a norm-based intervention can shift this discriminatory behaviour. Social Identity Theory suggests that group identity can lead to favouritism towards the in-group and discriminatory behaviour towards the out-group. Agents yield higher utility from maintaining positive self-esteem by confirming with group behaviour. This paper focuses on the two majority ethnic groups in Zimbabwe – the Ndebele and Shona. Racial identities are synonymous with the language spoken. Zimbabwe’s history highlights how identity formation took place. As following independence, political parties became recognised as either Ndebele or Shona-speaking. It is against this backdrop that this study investigates the degree to which norm-based nudge can alter behaviour. This paper uses experimental methods to analyse discriminatory behaviour between two naturally occurring ethnic groups in Zimbabwe. In addition, we investigate if social norm-based interventions can shift discriminatory behaviour to understand if the divide between these two identity groups can be further divided or healed. Participants are randomly assigned into three groups to receive information regarding a social norm. We compare the effect of a proscriptive social norm-based intervention, stating what shouldn't be done and prescriptive social norms as interventions, stating what should be done. Specifically, participants are either shown the socially appropriate (Heal) norm, the socially inappropriateness (Divide) norm regarding interethnic marriages or no norm-based intervention. Following the random assignment into intervention groups, participants take part in the Trust Game. We conjecture that discrimination will shift in accordance with the prevailing social norm. Instead, we find evidence of interethnic discriminatory behaviour. We also find that trust increases when interacting with Ndebele, Shona and Zimbabwean participants following the Heal intervention. However, if the participant is Shona, the Heal intervention decreases trust toward in-groups and Zimbabwean co-players. On the other hand, if the participant is Shona, the Divide treatment significantly increases trust toward Ndebele participants. In summary, we find evidence that norm-based interventions significantly change behaviour. However, the prescriptive norm-based intervention (Heal) decreases trust toward the in-group, out-group and national identity group if the participant is Shona – therefore having an adverse effect. In contrast, the proscriptive Divide treatment increases trust if the participant is Shona towards Ndebele co-players. We conclude that norm-based interventions have a ‘rebound’ effect by altering behaviour in the opposite direction.

Keywords: discrimination, social identity, social norm-based intervention, zimbabwe

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Authors: Victor Milanes, Martha Hubertz

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In the wake of COVID-19, all aspects of life have been estranged, and humanity has been forced to shift toward a more technologically integrated mode of operation. Essential work such as Healthcare, business, and public policy are a few notable industries that were initially dependent upon face-to-face modality but have completely reimagined their operation style. Unique to these fields, education was particularly strained because academics, teachers, and professors alike were obligated to shift their curriculums online over the course of a few weeks while also maintaining the expectation that they were educating their students to a similar level accomplished pre-pandemic. This was notable as research indicates two key concepts: Students prefer face-to-face modality, and due to the disruption in academic continuity/style, there was a negative impact on student's overall education and performance. With these two principles in mind, this study aims to inquire what online strategies could be best employed by teachers to educate their students, as well as what strategies could be adopted in a multimodal setting if deemed necessary by the instructor or outside convoluting factors (Such as the case of COVID-19, or a personal matter that demands the teacher's attention away from the classroom). Strategies and methods will be cross-analyzed via a ranking system derived from various recognized teaching assessments, in which engagement, retention, flexibility, interest, and performance are specifically accounted for. We expect to see an emphasis on positive social pressure as a dominant factor in the improved propensity for education, as well as a preference for visual aids across platforms, as research indicates most individuals are visual learners.

Keywords: technological integration, multimodal teaching, education, student engagement

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Authors: Damayanthie Eluwawalage

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Historically, the color-coded attire demarcated differences, for example, differences in social position and differences in gender, etc. Distinctive colors are worn by different classes in medieval England. By the twentieth-century Western society, certain colors were firmly associated with the specific gender; as pink for girls, and blue for boys. The color-coded gender phenomenon was a novelty at the turn of the twentieth-century and became widely practiced after World War II. Prior to that era, there were no distinctions or differences in the dress of younger children, in relation to their gender. In the nineteenth century, pink suits were highly acceptable for gentlemen’s attire. Frenchmen in the eighteenth-century wore colors with an infinite range of hues like pink, plum, white, cream, blue, yellow, puce and sea green. Nineteenth-century European male austerity, primarily caused by the usage of sombre colors such as black, white and grey, has been described as an element for dignity, control and morality. In the nineteenth century, there were many color-associated distinctions, as certain colors were reserved for the unmarried, the single or the aged. Two luminous colors in one dress was ‘vulgar’ and yellow was generally regarded as unladylike. Yellow was the color utilised for most correctional attire. Orange was prohibited for the unmarried. Fashionable dressing in the nineteenth century was more gender-differentiated than in previous centuries. Masculine austerity, emphasized a shift in class relations. As a result of that shift, male attire became more uniform, homogeneous and integrated (amongst the classes), than its traditional hierarchal approach.

Keywords: textiles, fashion, gender symbolism, color

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Authors: Sarah Alshehri, Messedah Alqahtani

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Reading instruction in EFL classes is still challenging for teachers, and many students are still behind their expected level. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, there was a shift in teaching English from face-to face to online classes. This paper will discover how the digital shift during and post pandemic has influenced English literacy instruction and what methods seem to be effective or challenging. Specifically, this paper will examine English language teachers' perspectives on the workable approaches and challenges that encountered them when teaching reading using E-Learning platform in Saudi Arabian Secondary and intermediate schools. The study explores public secondary school EFL teachers’ instructional practices and the challenges encountered when teaching reading online. Quantitative data will be collected through a 28 -item Likert type survey that will be administered to Saudi English teachers who work in public secondary and intermediate schools. The quantitative data will be analyzed using SPSS by conducting frequency distributions, descriptive statistics, reliability tests, and one-way ANOVA tests. The potential outcomes of this study will contribute to better understanding of digital literacy and technology integration in language teaching. Findings of this study can provide directions for professionals and policy makers to improve the quality of English teaching and learning. Limitations and results will be discussed, and suggestions for future directions will be offered.

Keywords: EFL reading, E-learning- EFL literacy, EFL workable approaches, EFL reading instruction

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Authors: H. S. Sathish, H. S. Jagadeesh, Skanda Kumar

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Journey time and delay study is used to evaluate the quality of service, the travel time and study can also be used to evaluate the quality of traffic movement along the route and to determine the location types and extent of traffic delays. Components of delay are boarding and alighting, issue of tickets, other causes and distance between each stops. This study investigates the total journey time required to travel along the stretch and the influence the delays. The route starts from Kempegowda Bus Station to Yelahanka Satellite Station of Bangalore City. The length of the stretch is 16.5 km. Modal split analysis has been done for this stretch. This stretch has elevated highway connecting to Bangalore International Airport and the extension of metro transit stretch. From the regression analysis of total journey time it is affected by delay due to boarding and alighting moderately, Delay due to issue of tickets affects the journey time to a higher extent. Some of the delay factors affecting significantly the journey time are evident from F-test at 10 percent level of confidence. Along this stretch work trips are more prevalent as indicated by O-D study. Modal shift analysis indicates about 70 percent of commuters are ready to shift from current system to Metro Rail System. Metro Rail System carries maximum number of trips compared to private mode. Hence Metro is a highly viable choice of mode for Bangalore Metropolitan City.

Keywords: delay, journey time, modal choice, regression analysis

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Authors: Pauline Bredy, Yves Schuurman, David Farrusseng

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To fulfill climate objectives, the production of synthetic e-fuels using CO₂ as a raw material appears as part of the solution. In particular, Power-to-Liquid (PtL) concept combines CO₂ with hydrogen supplied from water electrolysis, powered by renewable sources, which is currently gaining interest as it allows the production of sustainable fossil-free liquid fuels. The proposed process discussed here is an upgrading of the well-known Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The concept deals with two cascade reactions in one pot, with first the conversion of CO₂ into CO via the reverse water gas shift (RWGS) reaction, which is then followed by the Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis (FTS). Instead of using a Fe-based catalyst, which can carry out both reactions, we have chosen the strategy to decouple the two functions (RWGS and FT) on two different catalysts within the same reactor. The FTS shall shift the equilibrium of the RWGS reaction (which alone would be limited to 15-20% of conversion at 250°C) by converting the CO into hydrocarbons. This strategy shall enable optimization of the catalyst pair and thus lower the temperature of the reaction thanks to the equilibrium shift to gain selectivity in the liquid fraction. The challenge lies in maximizing the activity of the RWGS catalyst but also in the ability of the FT catalyst to be highly selective. Methane production is the main concern as the energetic barrier of CH₄ formation is generally lower than that of the RWGS reaction, so the goal will be to minimize methane selectivity. Here we report the study of different combinations of copper-based RWGS catalysts with different cobalt-based FTS catalysts. We investigated their behaviors under mild process conditions by the use of high-throughput experimentation. Our results show that at 250°C and 20 bars, Cobalt catalysts mainly act as methanation catalysts. Indeed, CH₄ selectivity never drops under 80% despite the addition of various protomers (Nb, K, Pt, Cu) on the catalyst and its coupling with active RWGS catalysts. However, we show that the activity of the RWGS catalyst has an impact and can lead to longer hydrocarbons chains selectivities (C₂⁺) of about 10%. We studied the influence of the reduction temperature on the activity and selectivity of the tandem catalyst system. Similar selectivity and conversion were obtained at reduction temperatures between 250-400°C. This leads to the question of the active phase of the cobalt catalysts, which is currently investigated by magnetic measurements and DRIFTS. Thus, in coupling it with a more selective FT catalyst, better results are expected. This was achieved using a cobalt/iron FTS catalyst. The CH₄ selectivity dropped to 62% at 265°C, 20 bars, and a GHSV of 2500ml/h/gcat. We propose that the conditions used for the cobalt catalysts could have generated this methanation because these catalysts are known to have their best performance around 210°C in classical FTS, whereas the iron catalysts are more flexible but are also known to have an RWGS activity.

Keywords: cobalt-copper catalytic systems, CO₂-hydrogenation, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, hydrocarbons, low-temperature process

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Authors: Chetna Mohabeer, Luis Reyes, Lokmane Abdelouahed, Bechara Taouk

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In the transition to sustainability and the increasing use of renewable energy, hydrogen will play a key role as an energy carrier. Biomass has the potential to accelerate the realization of hydrogen as a major fuel of the future. Pyro-gasification allows the conversion of organic matter mainly into synthesis gas, or “syngas”, majorly constituted by CO, H2, CH4, and CO2. A second, condensable fraction of biomass pyro-gasification products are “tars”. Under certain conditions, tars may decompose into hydrogen and other light hydrocarbons. These conditions include two types of cracking: homogeneous cracking, where tars decompose under the effect of temperature ( > 1000 °C), and heterogeneous cracking, where catalysts such as olivine, dolomite or biochar are used. The latter process favors cracking of tars at temperatures close to pyro-gasification temperatures (~ 850 °C). Pyro-gasification of biomass coupled with water-gas shift is the most widely practiced process route for biomass to hydrogen today. In this work, an innovating solution will be proposed for this conversion route, in that all the pyro-gasification products, not only methane, will undergo processes that aim to optimize hydrogen production. First, a heterogeneous cracking step was included in the reaction scheme, using biochar (remaining solid from the pyro-gasification reaction) as catalyst and CO2 and H2O as gasifying agents. This process was followed by a catalytic steam methane reforming (SMR) step. For this, a Ni-based catalyst was tested under different reaction conditions to optimize H2 yield. Finally, a water-gas shift (WGS) reaction step with a Fe-based catalyst was added to optimize the H2 yield from CO. The reactor used for cracking was a fluidized bed reactor, and the one used for SMR and WGS was a fixed bed reactor. The gaseous products were analyzed continuously using a µ-GC (Fusion PN 074-594-P1F). With biochar as bed material, it was seen that more H2 was obtained with steam as a gasifying agent (32 mol. % vs. 15 mol. % with CO2 at 900 °C). CO and CH4 productions were also higher with steam than with CO2. Steam as gasifying agent and biochar as bed material were hence deemed efficient parameters for the first step. Among all parameters tested, CH4 conversions approaching 100 % were obtained from SMR reactions using Ni/γ-Al2O3 as a catalyst, 800 °C, and a steam/methane ratio of 5. This gave rise to about 45 mol % H2. Experiments about WGS reaction are currently being conducted. At the end of this phase, the four reactions are performed consecutively, and the results analyzed. The final aim is the development of a global kinetic model of the whole system in a multi-stage fluidized bed reactor that can be transferred on ASPEN PlusTM.

Keywords: multi-staged fluidized bed reactor, pyro-gasification, steam methane reforming, water-gas shift

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Authors: Kukuri Tavartkiladze, Nana Bolashvili

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The purpose of this paper was separation and study of the part of structure regime, which directly affects the process of desertification. A simple scheme was prepared for the assessment of desertification process; surface air temperature and precipitation for the years of 1936-2009 were analyzed.  The map of distribution of the Desertification Contributing Coefficient in the territory of Georgia was compiled. The simple scheme for identification of the intensity of the desertification contributing process has been developed and the illustrative example of its practical application for the territory of Georgia has been conducted.

Keywords: aridity, climate change, desertification, precipitation

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Authors: R. Malisa, E. Schwella, K. I. Theletsane

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Due to climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization, the demand for water in South Africa is inevitably surpassing supply. To address similar challenges globally, there has been a paradigm shift from conventional urban waste water management “government” to a “governance” paradigm. From the governance paradigm, Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) principle emerged. This principle emphasizes efficient urban waste water treatment and production of high-quality recyclable effluent. In so doing mimicking natural water systems, in their processes of recycling water efficiently, and averting depletion of natural water resources.  The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of shifting the current urban waste water management approach from a “government” paradigm towards “governance”. The study was conducted through Interactive Management soft systems research methodology which follows a qualitative research design. A case study methodology was employed, guided by realism research philosophy. Qualitative data gathered were analyzed through interpretative structural modelling using Concept Star for Professionals Decision-Making tools (CSPDM) version 3.64.  The constructed model deduced that the main drivers in shifting the Stellenbosch municipal urban waste water management towards IUWM “governance” principles are mainly social elements characterized by overambitious expectations of the public on municipal water service delivery, mis-interpretation of the constitution on access to adequate clean water and sanitation as a human right and perceptions on recycling water by different communities. Inadequate public participation also emerged as a strong driver. However, disruptive events such as draught may play a positive role in raising an awareness on the value of water, resulting in a shift on the perceptions on recycled water. Once the social elements are addressed, the alignment of governance and administration elements towards IUWM are achievable. Hence, the point of departure for the desired paradigm shift is the change of water service authorities and serviced communities’ perceptions and behaviors towards shifting urban waste water management approaches from “government” to “governance” paradigm.

Keywords: integrated urban water management, urban water system, wastewater governance, wastewater treatment works

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Authors: Ainas Belkacem, Fourar Ali

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The present study focuses on the mathematical modeling and calculation of physical parameters of water pollution by oil and sand in regime fully dispersed in water. In this study, the sand particles and oil are suspended in the case of fully developed turbulence. The study consists to understand, model and predict the viscosity, the structure and dynamics of these types of mixtures. The work carried out is Numerical and validated by experience.

Keywords: multi phase flow, pollution, suspensions, turbulence

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Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

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From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

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Authors: Zhan Fengmei Yao, Hui Li, Jiahua Zhang

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The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant decrease by 0.2-0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53-2.0 t/10a. Their contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~ 35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s. Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north of NEC.

Keywords: climate change, maize yields, varieties, planting date, impacts

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Authors: Karimova Sitora Yuldashevna

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The August 2021 resurgence of Taliban as a ruling force in Afghanistan once again challenged the global community into dealing with an unprecedentedly unlike-minded government. To express their disapproval of the new regime, Western governments and intergovernmental institutions have suspended their infrastructural projects and other forms of support. Moreover, the Afghan offshore reserves were frozen, and Afghanistan was disconnected from the international financial system, which impeded even independent aid agencies’ work. The already poor provision of aid was then further complicated with political conditionality. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the efficacy of conditional aid policy in the Afghan peacebuilding under Taliban rule and provide recommendations to international donors on further course of action. Arguing that conditionality of aid is a counterproductive factor in the peacebuilding process, this paper employs scholarly literature on peacebuilding alongside reports from International non-governmental organizations INGOs who operate directly in Afghanistan. The existing debate on peacebuilding in Afghanistan revolves around aid as a means of building democratic foundation for achieving peace on communal and national levels and why the previous attempts to do so were unsuccessful. This paper focuses on how to recalibrate the approach to aid provision and peacebuilding in the new reality. In the early 2000s, amid the weak Post-Cold War international will for a profound engagement in the conflict, humanitarian and development aid became the new means of achieving peace. Aid agencies provided resources directly to communities, minimizing the risk of local disputes. Through subsidizing education, governance reforms, and infrastructural projects, international aid accelerated school enrollment, introduced peace education, funded provincial council and parliamentary elections, and helped rebuild a conflict-torn country.When the Taliban seized power, the international community called on them to build an inclusive government based on respect for human rights, particularly girls’ and women’s schooling and work, as a condition to retain the aid flow. As the Taliban clearly failed to meet the demands, development aid was withdrawn. Some key United Nation agencies also refrained from collaborating with the de-facto authorities. However, contrary to the intended change in Talibs’ behavior, such a move has only led to further deprivation of those whom the donors strived to protect. This is because concern for civilians has always been the second priority for the warring parties. This paper consists of four parts. First, it describes the scope of the humanitarian crisis that began in Afghanistan in 2001. Second, it examines the previous peacebuilding attempts undertaken by the international community and the contribution that the international aid had in the peacebuilding process. Third, the paper describes the current regime and its relationships with the international donors. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations for donors who would have to be more realistic and reconsider their priorities. While it is certainly not suggested that the Taliban regime is legitimized internationally, the crisis calls upon donors to be more flexible in collaborating with the de-facto authorities for the sake of the civilians.

Keywords: Afghanistan, international aid, donors, peacebuilding

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Authors: Katyana A. Vert-Pre, James T. Thorson, Thomas Trancart, Eric Feunteun

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In marine ecosystems, spatial and temporal species structure is an important component of ecosystems’ response to anthropological and environmental factors. Although spatial distribution patterns and fish temporal series of abundance have been studied in the past, little research has been allocated to the joint dynamic spatio-temporal functional patterns in marine ecosystems and their use in multispecies management and conservation. Each species represents a function to the ecosystem, and the distribution of these species might not be random. A heterogeneous functional distribution will lead to a more resilient ecosystem to external factors. Applying a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (VAST) model for count data, we estimate the spatio-temporal distribution, shift in time, and abundance of 140 species of the Eastern English Chanel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea. From the model outputs, we determined spatio-temporal clusters, calculating p-values for hierarchical clustering via multiscale bootstrap resampling. Then, we designed a functional map given the defined cluster. We found that the species distribution within the ecosystem was not random. Indeed, species evolved in space and time in clusters. Moreover, these clusters remained similar over time deriving from the fact that species of a same cluster often shifted in sync, keeping the overall structure of the ecosystem similar overtime. Knowing the co-existing species within these clusters could help with predicting data-poor species distribution and abundance. Further analysis is being performed to assess the ecological functions represented in each cluster.

Keywords: cluster distribution shift, European marine ecosystems, functional distribution, spatio-temporal model

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Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed

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The study region is located in the Tunisian Dorsal Backland (Central Mediterranean), which is the easternmost part of the Saharan Atlas mountain range, trending southwest-northeast. Based on our fieldwork, seismic tomography images, seismicity, and previous studies, we propose an interpretation of the relationship between the surface deformation and fault kinematics in the study area and the internal dynamic processes acting in the Central Mediterranean from the Cenozoic to the present. The subduction and dynamics of internal forces beneath the complicated Maghrebides mobile belt have an impact on the Tertiary and Quaternary tectonic regimes in the Pelagian and Atlassic foreland that is part of our study region. The left lateral reactivation of the major "Tunisian N-S Axis fault" and the development of a compressional relay between the Hammamet Korbous and Messella-Ressas faults are possibly a result of tectonic stresses due to the slab roll-back following the Africa/Eurasia convergence. After the slab segmentation and its eastward migration (5–4 Ma) and the formation of the Strait of Sicily "rift zone" further east, a transtensional tectonic regime has been installed in this area. According to seismic tomography images, the STEP fault of the "North-South Axis" at Hammamet-Korbous coincides with the western edge of the "Slab windows" of the Sicilian Channel and the eastern boundary of the positive anomalies attributed to the residual Slab of Tunisia. On the other hand, significant E-W Plio-Quaternary tectonic activity may be observed along the eastern portion of this STEP fault system in the Grombalia zone as a result of recent vertical lithospheric motion in response to the lateral slab migration eastward to Sicily Channel. According to SKS fast splitting directions, the upper mantle flow pattern beneath Tunisian Dorsal is parallel to the NE-SW to E-W orientation of the Shmin identified in the study area, similar to the Plio-Quaternary extensional orientation in the Central Mediterranean. Additionally, the removal of the lithosphere and the subsequent uplift of the sub-lithospheric mantle beneath the topographic highs of the Dorsal and its surroundings may be the cause of the dominant extensional to transtensional Quaternary regime. The occurrence of strike-slip and extensional seismic events in the Pelagian block reveals that the regional transtensional tectonic regime persists today. Finally, we believe that the geodynamic history of the study area since the Cenozoic is primarily influenced by the preexisting weak zones, the African slab detachment, and the upper mantle flow pattern in the central Mediterranean.

Keywords: Tunisia, lithospheric discontinuity (STEP fault), geodynamic evolution, Tunisian dorsal backland, strike-slip fault, seismic tomography, seismicity, central Mediterranean

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Authors: L. Guevara, Glória L. S., Corea E. E, A. Ramírez-Zamora M., Salinas-Martinez J. A., Angeles-Hernandez J. C.

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Mathematical models are useful for identifying the characteristics of sheep lactation curves to develop and implement improved strategies. However, the accuracy of these models is influenced by factors such as the recording regime, mainly the intervals between test day records (TDR). The current study aimed to evaluate the effect of different TDR intervals on the goodness of fit of the Wood model (WM) applied to dairy sheep lactations. A total of 4,494 weekly TDRs from 156 lactations of dairy crossbred sheep were analyzed. Three new databases were generated from the original weekly TDR data (7D), comprising intervals of 14(14D), 21(21D), and 28(28D) days. The parameters of WM were estimated using the “minpack.lm” package in the R software. The shape of the lactation curve (typical and atypical) was defined based on the WM parameters. The goodness of fit was evaluated using the mean square of prediction error (MSPE), Root of MSPE (RMSPE), Akaike´s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian´s Information Criterion (BIC), and the coefficient of correlation (r) between the actual and estimated total milk yield (TMY). WM showed an adequate estimate of TMY regardless of the TDR interval (P=0.21) and shape of the lactation curve (P=0.42). However, we found higher values of r for typical curves compared to atypical curves (0.9vs.0.74), with the highest values for the 28D interval (r=0.95). In the same way, we observed an overestimated peak yield (0.92vs.6.6 l) and underestimated time of peak yield (21.5vs.1.46) in atypical curves. The best values of RMSPE were observed for the 28D interval in both lactation curve shapes. The significant lowest values of AIC (P=0.001) and BIC (P=0.001) were shown by the 7D interval for typical and atypical curves. These results represent the first approach to define the adequate interval to record the regime of dairy sheep in Latin America and showed a better fitting for the Wood model using a 7D interval. However, it is possible to obtain good estimates of TMY using a 28D interval, which reduces the sampling frequency and would save additional costs to dairy sheep producers.

Keywords: gamma incomplete, ewes, shape curves, modeling

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Authors: Rhisan Mae Enriquez-Morales

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The primary concern of this study is to answer the question: How does the Philippine government formulate its foreign policy with respect to its territorial claims over areas in the West Philippine Sea after the Scarborough standoff in April 2012? Specifically, the study seeks to provide understanding on the political process in the formulation of foreign policy relating to the Philippine claims in the West Philippine Sea after the 2012 Scarborough Standoff, by looking into the relationship of bureaucracies and how it influences the decision-making process. Secondly, this study aims to determine the long and short term foreign policies of the Philippines with respect to its territorial claims over the West Philippine Sea. Lastly, this study seeks to determine the implication of Philippine foreign policy in settling the West Philippine Sea dispute on the country’s national security. The Bureaucratic Politics Model (BPM) in Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) is the framework utilized in this study, which focuses primarily on the relationship of bureaucracies in the formulation of foreign policy and how these agencies influence the process of foreign policy formulation. The findings of this study reveal that: first, the Philippines foreign policy in the West Philippine Sea continues to develop to address current developments in the WPS. Second, as the government requires demilitarization there is a shift from traditional to non-traditional security approach. This shift caused inconvenience from the defense sector particularly the Navy thinking that they are being deprived of their traditional roles. Lastly, the Philippine government’s greater emphasis on internal security operation implies the need to reassess its security concerns and look into territorial security.

Keywords: bureaucratic politics model, foreign policy analysis, security, West Philippine sea

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Authors: Saif Alomari

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The paper aims at giving physical and mathematical descriptions of how the structural parameters of a resonant tunnelling diode (RTD) affect its output characteristics. Specifically, the value of the peak voltage, peak current, peak to valley current ratio (PVCR), and the difference between peak and valley voltages and currents ΔV and ΔI. A simulation-based approach using the Non-Equilibrium Green Function (NEGF) formalism based on the Silvaco ATLAS simulator is employed to conduct a series of designed experiments. These experiments show how the doping concentration in the emitter and collector layers, their thicknesses, and the width of the barriers and the quantum well influence the above-mentioned output characteristics. Each of these parameters was systematically changed while holding others fixed in each set of experiments. Factorial experiments are outside the scope of this work and will be investigated in future. The physics involved in the operation of the device is thoroughly explained and mathematical models based on curve fitting and underlaying physical principles are deduced. The models can be used to design devices with predictable output characteristics. These models were found absent in the literature that the author acanned. Results show that the doping concentration in each region has an effect on the value of the peak voltage. It is found that increasing the carrier concentration in the collector region shifts the peak to lower values, whereas increasing it in the emitter shifts the peak to higher values. In the collector’s case, the shift is either controlled by the built-in potential resulting from the concentration gradient or the conductivity enhancement in the collector. The shift to higher voltages is found to be also related to the location of the Fermi-level. The thicknesses of these layers play a role in the location of the peak as well. It was found that increasing the thickness of each region shifts the peak to higher values until a specific characteristic length, afterwards the peak becomes independent of the thickness. Finally, it is shown that the thickness of the barriers can be optimized for a particular well width to produce the highest PVCR or the highest ΔV and ΔI. The location of the peak voltage is important in optoelectronic applications of RTDs where the operating point of the device is usually the peak voltage point. Furthermore, the PVCR, ΔV, and ΔI are of great importance for building RTD-based oscillators as they affect the frequency response and output power of the oscillator.

Keywords: peak to valley ratio, peak voltage shift, resonant tunneling diodes, structural parameters

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Authors: Ali Jibran

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China was considered as a revisionist state by the countries of East Asia during Maoist era; but China’s role changed from a revisionist state to a constructive member of East Asian Community in post-Maoist era. This research will mainly investigate the two phenomena: what were reasons of behavioral change of China in East Asia and what role has China played to promote regionalism in East Asia since Open Door Policy of Deng Xiaoping. To understand these two phenomena, this study applies the international relations theory of Uneven and Combined Development (U&CD). The central finding of this study is that ‘whip of external necessity’ posed by the Western dominance during the Chinese ‘century of ignominy’ resulted in a Maoist regime in China in 1948 which was hostile to its neighbors due to ideological tensions. Maoist regime in China could not solve the challenges posed by the ‘international’; therefore after Mao’s death, a new economic approach was introduced in China to deal with the challenges postured by the ‘international’. Due to Deng Xiaoping’s 'Open Door Policy' era, China used its ‘privilege of historic backwardness’ and witnessed unprecedented economic growth. As the societies are multiple and exist in real time, therefore interaction among societies is pertinent. Export oriented domestic policy pushed China to concentrate less on class struggle and improve its relations with its neighbors in East Asia. As China soon become a global hub of trade after market oriented reforms, therefore friendly relations with the states of East Asia was pertinent. This study will investigate Chinese role in regionalism in East Asia in three area: Chinese role in promoting regionalism in East Asia, China’s role in economic integration in East Asia and China’s role in combatting terrorism in East Asia. This study will be divided in two section. The first section will deal with the transformation in Chinese behavior in East Asia in post Maoist era, and the second section will analyze China’s role in East Asia by looking at Chinese role in institutional mechanism, economic integration and combatting terrorism in East Asia.

Keywords: East Asia, regionalism, institutionlism, economic integration

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Emily S. M. Chow

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The word ‘utopia’ was coined by Thomas More in Utopia (1516). Its Greek roots ‘ou’ means ‘not’ and ‘topos’ means ‘place.’ In other words, it literally refers to ‘no-place.’ However, the possibility of having an alternative and better future society has always been appealing. In fact, at the core of every utopianism is the search for a future alternative state with the anticipation of a better life. Nonetheless, the practicalities of such ideas have never ceased to be questioned. At times, building a utopia presents itself as a divisive act. In addition to the violence that must be employed to sweep away the old regime in order to make space for the new, all utopias carry within them the potential for bringing catastrophic consequences to human life. After all, every utopia seeks to remodel the individual in a very particular way for the benefit of the masses. In this sense, utopian thinking has the potential both to create and destroy the future. While writing during a traumatic transitional period in Zimbabwe’s history, Dambudzo Marechera witnessed an age of upheavals in which different parties battled for power over Zimbabwe. Being aware of the fact that all institutionalized narratives, be they originated from the governance of the UK, Ian Smith’s white minority regime or Zimbabwe’s revolutionary parties, revealed themselves to be nothing more than fiction, Marechera realized the impossibility of determining reality absolutely. As such, this thesis concerns the writing of the Zimbabwean maverick, Dambudzo Marechera. It argues that Marechera writes a unique vision of utopia. In short, for Marechera utopia is not a static entity but a moment of perpetual change. He rethinks utopia in the sense that he phrases it as an event that ceaselessly contests institutionalized and naturalized narratives of a post-colonial self and its relationship to society. Marechera writes towards a vision of an alternative future of the country. Yet, it is a vision that does not constitute a fully rounded sense of utopia. Being cautious about the world and the operation of power upon the people, rather than imposing his own utopian ideals, Marechera chooses to instead peeling away the narrative constitution of the self in relation to society in order to turn towards a truly radical utopian thinking that empowers the individual.

Keywords: African literature, Marechera, post-colonial literature, utopian studies

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Authors: Md Imtiaz, Sanchita Dei, Shubham Damke

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In recent years, there has been a rapidly accelerating shift from traditional surface processing operations to subsea processing operation. This shift has been driven by a number of factors including the depletion of shallow fields around the world, technological advances in subsea processing equipment, the need for production from marginal fields, and lower initial upfront investment costs compared to traditional production facilities. Moving production facilities to the seafloor offers a number of advantage, including a reduction in field development costs, increased production rates from subsea wells, reduction in the need for chemical injection, minimization of risks to worker ,reduction in spills due to hurricane damage, and increased in oil production by enabling production from marginal fields. Subsea processing consists of a range of technologies for separation, pumping, compression that enables production from offshore well without the need for surface facilities. At present, there are two primary technologies being used for subsea processing: subsea multiphase pumping and subsea separation. Multiphase pumping is the most basic subsea processing technology. Multiphase pumping involves the use of boosting system to transport the multiphase mixture through pipelines to floating production vessels. The separation system is combined with single phase pumps or water would be removed and either pumped to the surface, re-injected, or discharged to the sea. Subsea processing can allow for an entire topside facility to be decommissioned and the processed fluids to be tied back to a new, more distant, host. This type of application reduces costs and increased both overall facility and integrity and recoverable reserve. In future, full subsea processing could be possible, thereby eliminating the need for surface facilities.

Keywords: FPSO, marginal field, Subsea processing, SWAG

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