Search results for: rainfall driven inflow/infiltration

Authors: Kannapha Amaruchkul

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We formulate a dynamic overbooking model for a tour operator, in which most reservations contain at least two people. The cancellation rate and the timing of the cancellation may depend on the group size. We propose two overbooking policies, namely economic- and service-based. In an economic-based policy, we want to minimize the expected oversold and underused cost, whereas, in a service-based policy, we ensure that the probability of an oversold situation does not exceed the pre-specified threshold. To illustrate the applicability of our approach, we use tour package data in 2016-2018 from a tour operator in Thailand to build a data-driven robust optimization model, and we tested the proposed overbooking policy in 2019. We also compare the data-driven approach to the conventional approach of fitting data into a probability distribution.

Keywords: applied stochastic model, data-driven robust optimization, overbooking, revenue management, tour operator

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Authors: Nuttha Kirdsinsap, Watchaneeporn Setthasakko

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This paper aims to gain opinions and perspectives of Certified Public Accountants (CPA) in Thailand regarding the driven force of Integrated Reporting. It employs in-depth interviews with CPA from different big 4 audits firms in Thailand, including PWC, Ernst and Young, Deloitte, and KPMG. It is found that the driven force of Integrated Reporting made CPA in Thailand awaken to the big change that is coming in the future, and it is said to be another big learning and integrating period between certified public accountants and other professionals (for example, engineers, environmentalists and lawyers), which, certified public accountants in Thailand will have to push themselves so hard to catch up.

Keywords: integrated reporting, learning, knowledge, certified public accountants, Thailand

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Authors: Oyenike Eludoyin

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Extreme climate conditions are deviation from the norms and are capable of causing upsets in many important environmental parameter including disruption of water balance and air temperature balance. Studies have shown that extreme climate conditions can foretell disaster in regions with inadequate early warning systems. In this paper, we combined geographical information systems, statistics and social surveys to evaluate the physiologic indices [(Dewpoint Temperature (Td), Effective Temperature Index (ETI) and Relative Strain Index (RSI)] and extreme climate conditions in different parts of southwest Nigeria. This was with the view to assessing the nature and the impact of the conditions on the people and their coping strategies. The results indicate that minimum, mean and maximum temperatures were higher in 1960-1990 than 1991-2013 periods at most areas, and more than 80% of the people adapt to thermal stress by changing wear type or cloth, installing air conditioner and fan at home and/or work place and sleeping outside at certain period of the night and day. With respect to livelihoods, about 52% of the interviewed farmers indicated that too early rainfall, late rainfall, prolonged dryness after an initial rainfall, excessive rainfall and windstorms caused low crop yields. Main (76%) coping strategies were changing of planting dates, diversification of crops, and practices of mulching and intercropping. Government or institutional support was less than 20%.

Keywords: coping strategies, extreme climate, livelihoods, physiologic comfort

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Authors: Chuanbo Xu, Xinying Li, Gejirifu De, Yunna Wu

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Energy Internet (EI) is a new form that deeply integrates the Internet and the entire energy process from production to consumption. The assessment of energy efficient performance is of vital importance for the long-term sustainable development of EI project. Although the newly proposed fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm considers the randomness of uncertainty, it relies too much on the experience and knowledge of experts. Fortunately, the enrichment of EI data has enabled the utilization of data-driven methods. Therefore, the main purpose of this work is to assess the energy efficient of park-level EI by using a combination of a data-driven method with the fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm. Firstly, the indicators for the energy efficient are identified through literature review. Secondly, the artificial neural network (ANN)-based data-driven method is employed to cluster the values of indicators. Thirdly, the energy efficient of EI project is calculated through the fuzzy integrated cloud evaluation algorithm. Finally, the applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by a case study.

Keywords: energy efficient, energy internet, data-driven, fuzzy integrated evaluation, cloud model

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Authors: Liang Cheng Chang, Wei Ju Huang, You Cheng Chen

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Investigation and research are keys for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. The hydrogeological structure is an important base for groundwater analysis and simulation. Traditionally, the hydrogeological structure is artificially determined based on geological drill logs, the structure of wells, groundwater levels, and so on. In Taiwan, groundwater observation network has been built and a large amount of groundwater-level observation data are available. The groundwater level is the state variable of the groundwater system, which reflects the system response combining hydrogeological structure, groundwater injection, and extraction. This study applies analytical tools to the observation database to develop a methodology for the identification of confined and unconfined aquifers. These tools include frequency analysis, cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level, groundwater regression curve analysis, and decision tree. The developed methodology is then applied to groundwater layer identification of two groundwater systems: Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and Pingtung Plain. The abovementioned frequency analysis uses Fourier Transform processing time-series groundwater level observation data and analyzing daily frequency amplitude of groundwater level caused by artificial groundwater extraction. The cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level is used to obtain the groundwater replenishment time between infiltration and the peak groundwater level during wet seasons. The groundwater regression curve, the average rate of groundwater regression, is used to analyze the internal flux in the groundwater system and the flux caused by artificial behaviors. The decision tree uses the information obtained from the above mentioned analytical tools and optimizes the best estimation of the hydrogeological structure. The developed method reaches training accuracy of 92.31% and verification accuracy 93.75% on Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and training accuracy 95.55%, and verification accuracy 100% on Pingtung Plain. This extraordinary accuracy indicates that the developed methodology is a great tool for identifying hydrogeological structures.

Keywords: aquifer identification, decision tree, groundwater, Fourier transform

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Authors: M. E. Turan, H. Zengin, E. Cevik, Y. Sun, Y. Turen, H. Ahlatci

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In this study, the effects of B₄C and SiC particle reinforcements on wear properties of magnesium matrix metal composites produced by pressure infiltration method were investigated. AZ91 (9%Al-1%Zn) magnesium alloy was used as a matrix. AZ91 magnesium alloy was melted under an argon atmosphere. The melt was infiltrated to the particles with an appropriate pressure. Wear tests, hardness tests were performed respectively. Microstructure characterizations were examined by light optical (LOM) and scanning electron microscope (SEM). The results showed that uniform particle distributions were achieved in both B₄C and SiC reinforced composites. Wear behaviors of magnesium matrix metal composites changed as a function of type of particles. SiC reinforced composite has better wear performance and higher hardness than B₄C reinforced composite.

Keywords: magnesium matrix composite, pressure infiltration, SEM, wear

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Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).

Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR

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Authors: Abeba Nigussie Turi, Xiangming Samuel Li

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Data-driven business models are more typical for established businesses than early-stage startups that strive to penetrate a market. This paper provided an extensive discussion on the principles of data analytics for early-stage digital entrepreneurial businesses. Here, we developed data-driven decision-making (DDDM) framework that applies to startups prone to multifaceted barriers in the form of poor data access, technical and financial constraints, to state some. The startup DDDM framework proposed in this paper is novel in its form encompassing startup data analytics enablers and metrics aligning with startups' business models ranging from customer-centric product development to servitization which is the future of modern digital entrepreneurship.

Keywords: startup data analytics, data-driven decision-making, data acquisition, data generation, digital entrepreneurship

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Authors: Mahmoud Zakeri Niri, Saber Moazami, Arman Abdollahipour, Hossein Ghalkhani

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The objective of this research is to hydrological evaluation of four widely-used satellite precipitation products named PERSIANN, TMPA-3B42V7, TMPA-3B42RT, and CMORPH over Zarinehrood basin in Iran. For this aim, at first, daily streamflow of Sarough-cahy river of Zarinehrood basin was simulated using IHACRES rainfall-runoff model with daily rain gauge and temperature as input data from 1988 to 2008. Then, the model was calibrated in two different periods through comparison the simulated discharge with the observed one at hydrometric stations. Moreover, in order to evaluate the performance of satellite precipitation products in streamflow simulation, the calibrated model was validated using daily satellite rainfall estimates from the period of 2003 to 2008. The obtained results indicated that TMPA-3B42V7 with CC of 0.69, RMSE of 5.93 mm/day, MAE of 4.76 mm/day, and RBias of -5.39% performs better simulation of streamflow than those PERSIANN and CMORPH over the study area. It is noteworthy that in Iran, the availability of ground measuring station data is very limited because of the sparse density of hydro-meteorological networks. On the other hand, large spatial and temporal variability of precipitations and lack of a reliable and extensive observing system are the most important challenges to rainfall analysis, flood prediction, and other hydrological applications in this country.

Keywords: hydrological evaluation, IHACRES, satellite precipitation product, streamflow simulation

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Authors: H. J. Kim, K. H. Kim, N. H. Park, K. T. Nam, Y. H. Jung, T. H. Kim, J. H. Shin

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Underground excavations in an urban area can cause various geotechnical problems such as ground loss and lowering of groundwater level. When the ground loss becomes uncontrollably large, sinkholes can be developed to the ground surface. A sinkhole is commonly known as the natural phenomenon associated with lime rock areas. However, sinkholes in urban areas due to pressurized sewers and/or tunneling are also frequently reported. In this study, mechanism of a sinkhole developed at the site ‘A’ where a tunneling work underwent is investigated. The sinkhole occurred in the sand strata with the high level of groundwater when excavating a tunnel of which diameter is 3.6 m. The sinkhole was progressed in two steps. The first step began with the local failure around the tunnel face followed by tons of groundwater inflow, and the second step was triggered by the TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) chamber opening which led to the progressive general failure. The possibility of the sinkhole was evaluated by using Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM), and critical height was evaluated by the empirical stability chart. It is found that the lowering of the face pressure and inflow of groundwater into the tunnel face turned to be the main reason for the sinkhole.

Keywords: limit equilibrium method, sinkhole, stability chart, tunneling

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Authors: Zeinu Ahmed Rabba, Derek D Stretch

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Remote sensing contributes valuable information to streamflow estimates. Usually, stream flow is directly measured through ground-based hydrological monitoring station. However, in many developing countries like Ethiopia, ground-based hydrological monitoring networks are either sparse or nonexistent, which limits the manage water resources and hampers early flood-warning systems. In such cases, satellite remote sensing is an alternative means to acquire such information. This paper discusses the application of remotely sensed rainfall data for streamflow modeling in Gilgel Ghibe basin in Ethiopia. Ten years (2001-2010) of two satellite-based precipitation products (SBPP), TRMM and WaterBase, were used. These products were combined with the PyTOPKAPI hydrological model to generate daily stream flows. The results were compared with streamflow observations at Gilgel Ghibe Nr, Assendabo gauging station using four statistical tools (Bias, R², NS and RMSE). The statistical analysis indicates that the bias-adjusted SBPPs agree well with gauged rainfall compared to bias-unadjusted ones. The SBPPs with no bias-adjustment tend to overestimate (high Bias and high RMSE) the extreme precipitation events and the corresponding simulated streamflow outputs, particularly during wet months (June-September) and underestimate the streamflow prediction over few dry months (January and February). This shows that bias-adjustment can be important for improving the performance of the SBPPs in streamflow forecasting. We further conclude that the general streamflow patterns were well captured at daily time scales when using SBPPs after bias adjustment. However, the overall results demonstrate that the simulated streamflow using the gauged rainfall is superior to those obtained from remotely sensed rainfall products including bias-adjusted ones.

Keywords: Ethiopia, PyTOPKAPI model, remote sensing, streamflow, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), waterBase

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Authors: Haydar S. Al Shabbani, M. Marshall, R. Goodall

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Metal matrix composites (MMCs) have been explored for many applications for many decades. Recently, this includes investigations for thermal applications associated with electronics, such as in heat sinks. Here, to promote thermal conductivity, composites of a metal matrix with diamond particles are used. However, this class of composites has not yet been extensively examined for mechanical and tribological behavior, especially for applications that require extreme mechanical and tribological strength, such as the resistance to abrasive cutting. Therefore, this research seeks to develop a composite material with metal matrix and diamond particles which resist abrasive and cutting forces. The development progresses through a series of steps, exploring methods to process the material, understanding the mechanics of abrasive behavior and optimizing the composite structure to resist abrasive cutting. In processing, infiltration casting under gas pressure has been applied to molten aluminum to obtain a significant penetration of the metal into a preform of diamond particles. Different diamond particle sizes were used with different surface modifications (coated/uncoated), and to compare resulting composites with the same particle sizes. Al-1 wt.% Mg as a matrix alloy was utilised to investigate the possible effect of Mg on bonding phases during the infiltration process. The mechanical behavior and microstructure of the materials produced have been characterised. These tests showed that the surface modification of the diamond particles with a reactive material (Ti-coating) has an important role for enhancing the bonding between the aluminium matrix and diamond reinforcement as apparent under SEM observation. The effect of this improved bond is seen in the cutting resistance of the material.

Keywords: aluminium, composites, diamond, Ti-coated, tribology

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Niels E. Joergensen, Ataur Rahman, Hassan Qasem

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Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth Assessment Report AR4 predicts a more extreme climate towards the end of the century, which is likely to impact the design of engineering infrastructure projects with a long design life. A recent study in 2013 developed new design rainfall for Qatar, which provides an improved design basis of drainage infrastructure for the State of Qatar under the current climate. The current design standards in Qatar do not consider increased rainfall intensity caused by climate change. The focus of this paper is to update recently developed design rainfalls in Qatar under the changing climatic conditions based on IPCC's AR4 allowing a later revision to the proposed design standards, relevant for projects with a longer design life. The future climate has been investigated based on the climate models released by IPCC’s AR4 and A2 story line of emission scenarios (SRES) using a stationary approach. Annual maximum series (AMS) of predicted 24 hours rainfall data for both wet (NCAR-CCSM) scenario and dry (CSIRO-MK3.5) scenario for the Qatari grid points in the climate models have been extracted for three periods, current climate 2010-2039, medium term climate (2040-2069) and end of century climate (2070-2099). A homogeneous region of the Qatari grid points has been formed and L-Moments based regional frequency approach is adopted to derive design rainfalls. The results indicate no significant changes in the design rainfall on the short term 2040-2069, but significant changes are expected towards the end of the century (2070-2099). New design rainfalls have been developed taking into account climate change for 2070-2099 scenario and by averaging results from the two scenarios. IPCC’s AR4 predicts that the rainfall intensity for a 5-year return period rain with duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 11% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Similarly, the rainfall intensity for more extreme rainfall, with a return period of 100 years and duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 71% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Infrastructure with a design life exceeding 60 years should add safety factors taking the predicted effects from climate change into due consideration.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfalls, IDF, Qatar

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Authors: Jae-Woo Kim, Kyung-Jung Lee, Hyun-Sik Ahn

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This paper presents a design methodology for the motor driven automotive subsystems with the consideration of the functional safety. There are many such modules in vehicles which use DC/AC motors for an electronic throttle control system, a motor driven power steering, a motor driven seat belt systems and for HVAC systems. The functional safety for the automotive electrical and electronic parts are standardized as ISO 26262, but the development procedure is very complex to be followed. We focus on the functional safe motor controller design process and show the designed motor controller hardware satisfies the required safety integrity level by using metric calculations with the safety mechanism.

Keywords: AUTOSAR, MDPS, Simulink, software component

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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Authors: Hakim Aguedal, Abdelkader Iddou, Abdalla Aziz, Abdelhadi Bentouami, Ferhat Bensalah, Salah Bensadek

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The major environmental risk of soil pollution is the contamination of groundwater by infiltration of organic and inorganic pollutants that can cause a serious pollution. To prevent the migration of this pollution through this structure, many studies propose the installation of layers, which play a role of a barrier that inhibiting the contamination of groundwater by limiting or slowing the flow of rainwater carrying pollution through the layers of soil. However, it is practically impossible to build a barrier layer that let through only water, but it is possible to design a structure with low permeability, which reduces the infiltration of dangerous pollutant. In an environmental context of groundwater protection, the main objective of this study was to investigate the environmental and appropriate suitability method to preserve groundwater, by establishment of a permeable reactive barrier (PRB) intermediate in soil. Followed the influence of several parameters allow us to find the most effective materials and the most appropriate way to incorporate this barrier in the soil.

Keywords: Ground water, protection, permeable reactive Barrier, soil pollution.

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Authors: Vakhtang Charaia, Mariam Lashkhi

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Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a vital role in global business. It provides firms with new markets and advertising channels, cheaper production facilities, admission to new technology, products, skills and financing. FDI can provide a recipient country/company with a source of new technologies, capital, practice, products, management skills, and as such can be a powerful drive for economic development. It is one of the key elements of stable economic development in many countries, especially in developing ones. Therefore the size of FDI inflow is one of the most crustal factors for economic perfection in small economy countries (like, Georgia), while most of developed ones are net exporters of FDI. Since, FDI provides firms with new markets; admission to new technologies, products and management skills; marketing channels; cheaper production facilities, and financing opportunities. It plays a significant role in Georgian economic development. Increasing FDI inflows from all over the world to Georgia in last decade was achieved with the outstanding reforms managed by the Georgian government. However, such important phenomenon as world financial crisis and Georgian-Russian war put its consequence on the over amount of FDI inflow in Georgia in the last years. It is important to mention that the biggest investor region for Georgia is EU, which is interested in Georgia not only from the economic points of view but from political. The case studies from main EU investor countries show that Georgia has a big potential of investment in different areas, such as; financial sector, energy, construction, tourism industry, transport and communications. Moreover, signing of Association Agreement between Georgia and EU will further boost all the fields of economy in Georgia in both short and long terms. It will attract more investments from different countries and especially from EU. The last, but not least important issue is the calculation of annual FDI inflow to Georgia, which it is calculated differently by different organizations, based on different methodologies, but what is more important is that all of them show significant increase of FDI in last decade, which gives a positive signal to investors and underlines necessity of further improvement of investment climate in the same direction.

Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI), Georgia, investment development path, investment climate

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Authors: Samaneh Poormohammadi, Farid Golkar, Vahideh Khatibi Sarabi

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Climate change and consecutive droughts have increased the importance of using rainwater harvesting methods. One of the methods of rainwater harvesting and, in other words, the management of atmospheric water resources is the use of weather modification technologies. Weather modification (also known as weather control) is the act of intentionally manipulating or altering the weather. The most common form of weather modification is cloud seeding, which increases rain or snow, usually for the purpose of increasing the local water supply. Cloud seeding operations in Iran have been married since 1999 in central Iran with the aim of harvesting rainwater and reducing the effects of drought. In this research, we analyze the results of cloud seeding operations in the Simindashtplain in northern Iran. Rainwater harvesting with the help of cloud seeding technology has been evaluated through its effects on surface water and underground water. For this purpose, two different methods have been used to estimate runoff. The first method is the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method. Another method, known as the reasoning method, has also been used. In order to determine the infiltration rate of underground water, the balance reports of the comprehensive water plan of the country have been used. In this regard, the study areas located in the target area of each province have been extracted by drawing maps of the influence coefficients of each area in the GIS software. It should be mentioned that the infiltration coefficients were taken from the balance sheet reports of the country's comprehensive water plan. Then, based on the area of each study area, the weighted average of the infiltration coefficient of the study areas located in the target area of each province is considered as the infiltration coefficient of that province. Results show that the amount of water extracted from the rain with the help of cloud seeding projects in Simindasht is as follows: an increase in runoff 63.9 million cubic meters (with SCS equation) or 51.2 million cubic meters (with logical equation) and an increase in ground water resources: 40.5 million cubic meters.

Keywords: rainwater harvesting, ground water, atmospheric water resources, weather modification, cloud seeding

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Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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Authors: Le Xuan Cau

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Flash flood is occurred in short time rainfall interval: from 1 hour to 12 hours in small and medium basins. Flash floods typically have two characteristics: large water flow and big flow velocity. Flash flood is occurred at hill valley site (strip of lowland of terrain) in a catchment with large enough distribution area, steep basin slope, and heavy rainfall. The risk of flash floods is determined through Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index (GBFFPI). Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) is determined through terrain slope flash flood index, soil erosion flash flood index, land cover flash floods index, land use flash flood index, rainfall flash flood index. Determining GBFFPI, each cell in a map can be considered as outlet of a water accumulation basin. GBFFPI of the cell is determined as basin average value of FFPI of the corresponding water accumulation basin. Based on GIS, a tool is developed to compute GBFFPI using ArcObjects SDK for .NET. The maps of GBFFPI are built in two types: GBFFPI including rainfall flash flood index (real time flash flood warning) or GBFFPI excluding rainfall flash flood index. GBFFPI Tool can be used to determine a high flash flood potential site in a large region as quick as possible. The GBFFPI is improved from conventional FFPI. The advantage of GBFFPI is that GBFFPI is taking into account the basin response (interaction of cells) and determines more true flash flood site (strip of lowland of terrain) while conventional FFPI is taking into account single cell and does not consider the interaction between cells. The GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue is built and exported to Google Earth. The obtained map proves scientific basis of GBFFPI.

Keywords: ArcObjects SDK for NET, basin average value of FFPI, gridded basin flash flood potential index, GBFFPI map

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Authors: Hachmia Faqihi, Maarouf Saad, Khalid Benjelloun, Mohammed Benbrahim, M. Nabil Kabbaj

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This paper investigates and presents a cable-driven robot to lower limb rehabilitation use in sagittal plane. The presented rehabilitation robot is used for a trajectory tracking in joint space. The paper covers kinematic and dynamic analysis, which reveals the tensionability of the used cables as being the actuating source to provide a rehabilitation exercises of the human leg. The desired trajectory is generated to be used in the control system design in joint space. The obtained simulation results is showed to be efficient in this kind of application.

Keywords: cable-driven multi-body system, computed-torque controller, lower limb rehabilitation, tracking trajectory

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Authors: Ebrahim Akbarzadeh, Josep A. Picas Barrachina, Maite Baile Puig

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This study focuses on a novel method for dispersion and distribution of reinforcement under high intensive shear stress to produce metal composites. The polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based short carbon fiber (Csf) and Nextel 610 alumina fiber were dispersed under high intensive shearing at mushy zone in semi-solid of A356 by a novel method. The bundles and clusters were embedded by infiltration of slurry into the clusters, thus leading to a uniform microstructure. The fibers were embedded homogenously into the aluminum around 576-580°C with around 46% of solid fraction. Other experiments at 615°C and 568°C which are contained 0% and 90% solid respectively were not successful for dispersion and infiltration of aluminum into bundles of Csf. The alumina fiber has been cracked by high shearing load. The morphologies and crystalline phase were evaluated by SEM and XRD. The adopted thixo-process effectively improved the adherence and distribution of Csf into Al that can be developed to produce various composites by thixomixing.

Keywords: aluminum, carbon fiber, alumina fiber, thixomixing, adhesion

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Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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Authors: Egor Atan Obeten, Abong Augustine Agwul, Bissong A. Samson

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The position of the aquifer, its protective capability, and the quality of the groundwater beneath the dumpsite were all investigated. The techniques employed were laboratory, tritium tagging, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and vertical electrical sounding (VES). With a maximum electrode spacing of 500 meters, fifteen VES stations were used, and IPI2win software was used to analyze the data collected. The resistivity map of the dumpsite was determined by deploying six ERT stations for the 2 D survey. To ascertain the degree of soil infiltration beneath the dumpsite, the tritium tagging method was used. Using a conventional laboratory procedure, groundwater samples were taken from neighboring boreholes and examined. The findings showed that there were three to five geoelectric layers, with the aquifer position being inferred to be between 24.2 and 75.1 meters deep in the third, fourth, and fifth levels. Siemens with values in the range of 0.0235 to 0.1908 for the load protection capacity were deemed to be, at most, weakly and badly protected. The obtained porosity values ranged from 44.45 to 89.75. Strong calculated values for transmissivity and porosity indicate a permeable aquifer system with considerable storativity. The area has an infiltration value between 8 and 22 percent, according to the results of the tritium tagging technique, which was used to evaluate the level of infiltration from the dumpsite. Groundwater samples that have been analyzed reveal levels of NO2, DO, Pb2+, magnesium, and cadmium that are higher than what the NSDWQ has approved. Overall analysis of the results from the above-described methodologies shows that the study area's aquifer system is porous and that contaminants will circulate through it quickly if they are contaminated.

Keywords: aquifer, transmissivity, dumpsite, groundwater

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Authors: Yan Chen, Hongbing Li, Ruirui Zhai

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Innovation driven and innovation in the process of new-type urbanization is a major strategic choice for the introduction of foreign capital and the process of economic development. This research investigates the effect of urbanization, FDI and environmental regulations on innovation performance of enterprises, based on Chinese Industrial Statistics Database of 2004 to 2007 and data at province-level. It is found that the FDI from U.S. and environmental regulations will hinder the creativity of Chinese industry through reducing the R&D of them. However, the FDI from U.S. enhances the ability of domestic enterprises to attain “compensation from innovation” following the environmental regulations. Meanwhile, we confirm that environmental regulation can contribute to the innovation spillover of FDI from U.S. Furthermore, the channel of effect is discussed. In addition, FDI from EU and Japan are further examined. Unlike the FDI from U.S., the FDI from EU and Japan both have the positive innovation spillover effect, but through the same channel referred above which exist in FDI. Further analysis based on "innovation-driven effect" of urbanization is developed, and it is found that urbanization has an innovation-driven effect on environmental regulation and FDI spillover. The regulation of FDI from the United States and the European Union outperforms the FDI from Japan at a restrained degree.

Keywords: environmental regulations, FDI, innovation-driven, innovation performance

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Authors: Keiwoma Mark Yila, Mathew Lamrana Siaffa Gboku, Mohamed Sahr Lebbie, Lamin Ibrahim Kamara

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Rainfall and temperature are the important variables which are often used to trace climate variability and change. A perception study and analysis of climatic data were conducted to assess the changes in rainfall and temperature and their impact on crop production in Moyamba district, Sierra Leone. For the perception study, 400 farmers were randomly selected from farmer-based organizations (FBOs) in 4 chiefdoms, and 30 agricultural extension workers (AWEs) in the Moyamba district were purposely selected as respondents. Descriptive statistics and Kendall’s test of concordance was used to analyze the data collected from the farmers and AEWs. Data for the analysis of variability and trends of rainfall and temperature from 1991 to 2020 were obtained from the Sierra Leone Meteorological Agency and Njala University and grouped into monthly, seasonal and annual time series. Regression analysis was used to determine the statistical values and trend lines for the seasonal and annual time series data. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope Estimator were used to analyze the trends' significance and magnitude, respectively. The results of both studies show evidence of climate change in the Moyamba district. A substantial number of farmers and AEWs perceived a decrease in the annual rainfall amount, length of the rainy season, a late start and end of the rainy season, an increase in the temperature during the day and night, and a shortened harmattan period over the last 30 years. Analysis of the meteorological data shows evidence of variability in the seasonal and annual distribution of rainfall and temperature, a decreasing and non-significant trend in the rainy season and annual rainfall, and an increasing and significant trend in seasonal and annual temperature from 1991 to 2020. However, the observed changes in rainfall and temperature by the farmers and AEWs partially agree with the results of the analyzed meteorological data. The majority of the farmers perceived that; adverse weather conditions have negatively affected crop production in the district. Droughts, high temperatures, and irregular rainfall are the three major adverse weather events that farmers perceived to have contributed to a substantial loss in the yields of the major crops cultivated in the district. In response to the negative effects of adverse weather events, a substantial number of farmers take no action due to their lack of knowledge and technical or financial capacity to implement climate-sensitive agricultural (CSA) practices. Even though few farmers are practising some CSA practices in their farms, there is an urgent need to build the capacity of farmers and AEWs to adapt to and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The most priority support needed by farmers is the provision of climate-resilient crop varieties, whilst the AEWs need training on CSA practices.

Keywords: climate change, crop productivity, farmer’s perception, rainfall, temperature, Sierra Leone

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Authors: Arega Shumetie Ademe, Belay Kassa, Degye Goshu, Majaliwa Mwanjalolo

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Currently the world economy is suffering from one critical problem, climate change. Some studies done before identified that impact of the problem is region specific means in some part of the world (temperate zone) there is improvement in agricultural performance but in some others like in the tropics there is drastic reduction in crop production and crop income. Climate variability is becoming dominant cause of short-term fluctuation in rain-fed agricultural production and income of developing countries. The purely rain-fed Ethiopian agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to the risks and impacts of climate variability. Thus, this study tried to identify impact of climate variability on crop income of smallholders in Ethiopia. The research used eight rounded unbalanced panel data from 1994- 2014 collected from six villages in the study area. After having all diagnostic tests the research used fixed effect method of regression. Based on the regression result rainfall and temperature deviation from their respective long term averages have negative and significant effect on crop income. Other extreme devastating shocks like flood, storm and frost, which are sourced from climate variability, have significant and negative effect on crop income of households’. Parameters that notify rainfall inconsistency like late start, variation in availability at growing season, and early cessation are critical problems for crop income of smallholder households as to the model result. Given this, impact of climate variability is not consistent in different agro-ecologies of the country. Rainfall variability has similar impact on crop income in different agro-ecology, but variation in temperature affects cold agro-ecology villages negatively and significantly, while it has positive effect in warm villages. Parameters that represent rainfall inconsistency have similar impact in both agro-ecologies and the aggregate model regression. This implies climate variability sourced from rainfall inconsistency is the main problem of Ethiopian agriculture especially the crop production sub-sector of smallholder households.

Keywords: climate variability, crop income, household, rainfall, temperature

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Authors: Ana C. V. Freitas, Luciana B. M. Pires, Joao P. Martins

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In recent years, fire dynamics in deforestation areas of tropical forests have received considerable attention because of their relationship to climate change. Climate models project great increases in the frequency and area of drought in the Amazon region, which may increase the occurrence of fires. This study analyzes the historical record number of fire outbreaks in 2017 using satellite-derived data sets of active fire detections, burned area, precipitation, and data of the Fire Program from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE). A downward trend in the number of fire outbreaks occurred in the first half of 2017, in relation to the previous year. This decrease can be related to the fact that 2017 was not an El Niño year and, therefore, the observed rainfall and temperature in the Amazon region was close to normal conditions. Meanwhile, the worst period in history for fire outbreaks began with the subsequent arrival of the dry season. September of 2017 exceeded all monthly records for number of fire outbreaks per month in the entire series. This increase was mainly concentrated in Bolivia and in the states of Amazonas, northeastern Pará, northern Rondônia and Acre, regions with high densities of rural settlements, which strongly suggests that human action is the predominant factor, aggravated by the lack of precipitation during the dry season allowing the fires to spread and reach larger areas. Thus, deforestation in the Amazon is primarily a human-driven process: climate trends may be providing additional influences.

Keywords: Amazon forest, climate change, deforestation, human-driven process, fire outbreaks

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Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

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Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling

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Authors: Badr Alkahtani

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In this poster, numerical solutions of two-dimensional and three-dimensional lid driven cavity are presented by solving the steady Navier-Stokes equations at high Reynolds numbers where it becomes difficult. Lid driven cavity is where the a fluid contained in a cube and the upper wall is moving. In two dimensions, we use the streamfunction-vorticity formulation to solve the problem in a square domain. A numerical method is employed to discretize the problem in the x and y directions with a spectral collocation method. The problem is coded in the MATLAB programming environment. Solutions at high Reynolds numbers are obtained up to Re=20000 on a fine grid of 131 * 131. Also in this presentation, the numerical solutions for the three-dimensional lid-driven cavity problem are obtained by solving the velocity-vorticity formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations (which is the first time that this has been simulated with special boundary conditions) for various Reynolds numbers. A spectral collocation method is employed to discretize the y and z directions and a finite difference method is used to discretize the x direction. Numerical solutions are obtained for Reynolds number up to 200. , The work prepared here is to show the efficiency of methods used to simulate the physical problem where accurate simulations of lid driven cavity are obtained at high Reynolds number as mentioned above. The result for the two dimensional problem is far from the previous researcher result.

Keywords: lid driven cavity, navier-stokes, simulation, Reynolds number

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