Search results for: rain rates

Authors: Uche A. Ibekwe

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Pension funds are pooled assets which are established to provide income for retirees. The funds are usually regulated to check excessive risk taking by fund managers. In Nigeria, the current defined contribution (DC) pension scheme appears to contain some overly stringent restrictions which might be hampering its successful implementation. Notable among these restrictions is the 25 percent maximum limit on investment in ordinary shares of quoted companies. This paper examines the extent to which these restrictions affect pension replacement rates at retirement. The study made use of both simulated and historical asset return distributions using mean-variance, regression analysis and ruin-risk analyses, the study found that the current equity investment restriction policy in Nigeria reduces replacement rates at retirement.

Keywords: equity investment, replacement rates, restrictions, ruin-risk

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Authors: Stefanie J. Huber, Tobias Schmidt

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Cross-country differences in homeownership rates are large and very persistent over time, ranging between 35% in Switzerland to 80% in Spain. In this project, we test the hypothesis that these cross-country differences are driven by cultural tastes. To isolate the effect of culture from the effects of institutions and economic factors, we investigate the homeownership attitudes of second-generation immigrants in the United States. We find robust evidence that cross-country differences in cultural preferences are an important explanatory factor for the observed persistent differences in homeownership rates across countries.

Keywords: housing markets, homeownership rates, country heterogeneity, preferences, cultural transmission, migration

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Authors: A. Boateng, La Gil-Alana, M. Lesaoana; Hj. Siweya, A. Belete

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This study examines long memory or long-range dependence in the CPI inflation rates of Ghana and South Africa using Whittle methods and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Standard I(0)/I(1) methods such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests were also employed. Our findings indicate that long memory exists in the CPI inflation rates of both countries. After processing fractional differencing and determining the short memory components, the models were specified as ARFIMA (4,0.35,2) and ARFIMA (3,0.49,3) respectively for Ghana and South Africa. Consequently, the CPI inflation rates of both countries are fractionally integrated and mean reverting. The implication of this result will assist in policy formulation and identification of inflationary pressures in an economy.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates, Whittle method, long memory, ARFIMA model

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Authors: Heidarali Malmir

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The effects of acid rain (AR), smog’s cars (SC), and combined AR+SC on the antioxidants enzymes, lipid-soluble antioxidants, and water-soluble antioxidants were studied in the two cultivars of rice. The results showed that simulated AR significantly increased the total glutathione (TGSH), thiobarbituric acid (TBA), and α-tocopherol, accompanied by decreases in dry weight and leaves area in the two cultivars, and this change was more obvious in Shirudi cultivar than in Aus cultivar (p≤0.05). Under SC stress cultivar shirudi had higher H+-ATPase, glutathione peroxidase (GSH-px), and catalase (CAT) activities than cultivar Aus. The results of superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, TGSH, and α-tocopherol levels affected by AR treatments were very different to those of SOD activity, TGSH, and α-tocopherol levels, as shown in SC treatment. It seems that SOD activity coupled with the water-soluble antioxidants and α-tocopherol levels correlated with the lipid-soluble antioxidants. It is suggested that α-tocopherol increases H+-ATPase activity.

Keywords: H+-ATPase, membrane permeability, lipid soluble antioxidants, water soluble antioxidants, associated enzyme

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Authors: Gajaanuja Megalathan, Banuka Athuraliya

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Crime is one of our society's most intimidating and threatening challenges. With the majority of the population residing in cities, many experts and data provided by local authorities suggest a rapid increase in the number of crimes committed in these cities in recent years. There has been an increasing graph in the crime rates. People living in Sri Lanka have the right to know the exact crime rates and the crime rates in the future of the place they are living in. Due to the current economic crisis, crime rates have spiked. There have been so many thefts and murders recorded within the last 6-10 months. Although there are many sources to find out, there is no solid way of searching and finding out the safety of the place. Due to all these reasons, there is a need for the public to feel safe when they are introduced to new places. Through this research, the author aims to develop a mobile application that will be a solution to this problem. It is mainly targeted at tourists, and people who recently relocated will gain advantage of this application. Moreover, the Arima Model combined with ANN is to be used to predict crime rates. From the past researchers' works, it is evidently clear that they haven’t used the Arima model combined with Artificial Neural Networks to forecast crimes.

Keywords: arima model, ANN, crime prediction, data analysis

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Authors: Hussain M. Al-foudari, Weizhong Chen, James M. Bishop

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Correlations between oceanographic variables and monthly catch rates of total shrimp and those of each of the major species (Penaeus semisulcatus, Metapenaeus affinis and Parapenaeopsis stylifera) showed significant differences for particular conditions. Catches of P. semisulcatus were basically positively correlated with temperature, i.e., the higher the temperature, the higher the catch rate, while those of M. affinis and P. stylifera were negatively correlated with temperature, i.e., high catch rates occurred in the low temperature waters. Thus, during the months January and April, P. semisulcatus preferred waters with high temperature, usually the offshore and southern areas, while M. affinis and P. stylifera preferred waters with low temperature, usually inshore and northern areas. The relationships between the catch rate of P. semisulcatus and salinity were not so clear. Results indicated that although salinity was one of the factors affecting the distribution of P. semisulcatus, it was not the principal factor, and impacts from other variables, such as temperature, might overshadow the correlation between the catch rates of P. semisulcatus and salinity. The relationship between shrimp catch rates and dissolved oxygen (DO) also showed mixed results. The catch rates of M. affinis increased with a decrease of surface DO in November 2013, but decreased with lower bottom DO in December. These results indicated that DO might be a factor affecting distributions of the shrimp; however; the true correlation between catch rate and DO might be easily overshadowed by other environmental variables. Catch rates of P. semisulcatus did not show any relationship with depth. P. semisulcatus is a migratory species and widely distributed in Kuwait's waters.During the shrimp season from July through December, P. semisulcatus occurs in almost all areas in Kuwait's waters irrespective of water depth. The catch rates of M. affinis and P. stylifera, however, showed clear relationships with depth. Both species had significantly higher catch rates in shallower waters, indicative of their restricted distribution.

Keywords: Kuwait, Penaeus semisulcatus, Metapenaeus affinis, Parapenaeopsis stylifera, Arabian gulf

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Authors: Dongseok Cho, Mitchell Driedger, Sera Han, Noman Khan, Mohammed Elmorsy, Mohamad El-Hajj

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Since the approval of the COVID-19 vaccine in late 2020, vaccination rates have varied around the globe. Access to a vaccine supply, mandated vaccination policy, and vaccine hesitancy contribute to these rates. This study used COVID-19 vaccination data from Our World in Data and the Multilateral Leaders Task Force on COVID-19 to create two COVID-19 vaccination indices. The first index is the Vaccine Utilization Index (VUI), which measures how effectively each country has utilized its vaccine supply to doubly vaccinate its population. The second index is the Vaccination Acceleration Index (VAI), which evaluates how efficiently each country vaccinated its population within its first 150 days. Pearson correlations were created between these indices and country indicators obtained from the World Bank. The results of these correlations identify countries with stronger health indicators, such as lower mortality rates, lower age dependency ratios, and higher rates of immunization to other diseases, displaying higher VUI and VAI scores than countries with lesser values. VAI scores are also positively correlated to Governance and Economic indicators, such as regulatory quality, control of corruption, and GDP per capita. As represented by the VUI, proper utilization of the COVID-19 vaccine supply by country is observed in countries that display excellence in health practices. A country’s motivation to accelerate its vaccination rates within the first 150 days of vaccinating, as represented by the VAI, was largely a product of the governing body’s effectiveness and economic status, as well as overall excellence in health practises.

Keywords: data mining, Pearson correlation, COVID-19, vaccination rates and hesitancy

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Authors: F. Sarkinfada, Dabo N. Tukur, Abbas A. Muaz, Adamu A. Yahuza

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Appropriate Quality Assurance (QA) of parasite-based diagnosis of malaria to justify Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT) is essential for Malaria Programmes. In Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC), resource constrain appears to be a major challenge in implementing the conventional QA system. We designed and implemented a modified LQAS model for QA of malaria parasite (MP) microscopy and RDT in a State Specialist Hospital (SSH) and a University Health Clinic (UHC) in Kano, Nigeria. The capacities of both facilities for MP microscopy and RDT were assessed before implementing a modified LQAS over a period of 3 months. Quality indicators comprising the qualities of blood film and staining, MP positivity rates, concordance rates, error rates (in terms of false positives and false negatives), sensitivity and specificity were monitored and evaluated. Seventy one percent (71%) of the basic requirements for malaria microscopy was available in both facilities, with the absence of certifies microscopists, SOPs and Quality Assurance mechanisms. A daily average of 16 to 32 blood samples were tested with a blood film staining quality of >70% recorded in both facilities. Using microscopy, the MP positivity rates were 50.46% and 19.44% in SSH and UHS respectively, while the MP positivity rates were 45.83% and 22.78% in SSH and UHS when RDT was used. Higher concordance rates of 88.90% and 93.98% were recorded in SSH and UHC respectively using microscopy, while lower rates of 74.07% and 80.58% in SSH and UHC were recorded when RDT was used. In both facilities, error rates were higher when RDT was used than with microscopy. Sensitivity and specificity were higher when microscopy was used (95% and 84% in SSH; 94% in UHC) than when RDT was used (72% and 76% in SSH; 78% and 81% in UHC). It could be feasible to implement an integrated QA model for MP microscopy and RDT using modified LQAS in Malaria Control Programmes in Low and Middle Income Countries that might have resource constrain for parasite-base diagnosis of malaria to justify ACT treatment.

Keywords: malaria, microscopy, quality assurance, RDT

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Authors: N. David, H. O. Gao

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Air pollution is a serious environmental threat on a global scale and can cause harm to human health, morbidity and premature mortality. Reliable monitoring and control systems are therefore necessary to develop coping skills against the hazards associated with this phenomenon. However, existing environmental monitoring means often do not provide a sufficient response due to practical and technical limitations. Commercial microwave links that form the infrastructure for transmitting data between cell phone towers can be harnessed to map rain at high tempo-spatial resolution. Rainfall causes a decrease in the signal strength received by these wireless communication links allowing it to be used as a built-in sensor network to map the phenomenon. In this study, we point to the potential that lies in this system to indirectly monitor areas where air pollution is reduced. The relationship between pollutant wash-off and rainfall provides an opportunity to acquire important spatial information about air quality using existing cell-phone tower signals. Since the density of microwave communication networks is high relative to any dedicated sensor arrays, it could be possible to rely on this available observation tool for studying precipitation scavenging on air pollutants, for model needs and more.

Keywords: air pollution, commercial microwave links, rainfall, washout

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Authors: kamran Bhatti

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Objective: To evaluate spectrum and resistance rates to antibacterial agents in causative pathogens of bacterial prostatitis in patients from Southern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Materials: 1027 isolates from cultures of urine or expressed prostatic secretion, post-massage urine or seminal fluid, or urethral samples were considered. Results: Escherichia coli (32%) and Enterococcus spp. (21%) were the most common isolates. Other Gram-negative, Gram-positive, and atypical pathogens accounted for 22%, 20%, and 5%, respectively. Resistance was <15% for piperacillin/tazobactam and carbapenems (both Gram-negative and -positive pathogens); <5% for glycopeptides against Gram-positive; 7%, 14%, and 20% for aminoglycosides, fosfomycin, and macrolides against Gram-negative pathogens, respectively; 10% for amoxicillin/clavulanate against Gram-positive pathogens; <20% for cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones against to Gram-negative pathogens (higher against Gram-positive pathogens); none for macrolides against atypical pathogens, but 20% and 27% for fluoroquinolones and tetracyclines. In West Africa, the resistance rates were generally higher, although the highest rates for ampicillin, cephalosporins, and fluoroquinolones were observed in the Gulf area. Lower rates were observed in Southeastern Europe. Conclusions: Resistance to antibiotics is a health problem requiring local health authorities to combat this phenomenon. Knowledge of the spectrum of pathogens and antibiotic resistance rates is crucial to assess local guidelines for the treatment of prostatitis.

Keywords: enterobacteriacae; escherichia coli, gram-positive pathogens, antibiotic, bacterial prostatitis, resistance

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Authors: Mahdi Karazmodeh, Pooyan Jafari

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One of the most interesting topics in finance is the relation between stock prices and exchange rates. During the past decades different stock markets in different countries have been the subject of study for researches. The volatilities of exchange rates and its effect on stock prices during the past 10 years have continued to be an attractive research topic. The subject of this study is one of the most important indices, FTSE 100. 20 firms with the highest market capitalization in 5 different industries are chosen. Firms are included in oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, banking and food related industries. 5 different criteria have been introduced to evaluate the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates. Return of market portfolio, returns on broad index of Sterling are also introduced. The results state that not all firms are sensitive to changes in exchange rates. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test has been run to observe the route of changes between stock prices and foreign exchange rates. The results are consistent, to some level, with the previous studies. However, since the number of firms is not large, it is suggested that a larger number of firms being used to achieve the best results. However results showed that not all firms are affected by foreign exchange rates changes. After testing Granger Causality, this study found out that in some industries (oil and gas, pharmaceuticals), changes in foreign exchange rate will not cause any changes in stock prices (or vice versa), however, in banking sector the situation was different. This industry showed more reaction to these changes. The results are similar to the ones with Richards and Noel, where a variety of firms in different industries were evaluated.

Keywords: stock prices, foreign exchange rate, exchange rate exposure, Granger Causality

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Authors: Ajit Singh, Waliur Rahaman, Parmanand Sharma, Laluraj C. M., Lavkush Patel, Bhanu Pratap, Vinay Kumar Gaddam, Meloth Thamban

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The Himalayan glaciers are the potential source of perennial water supply to Asia’s major river systems like the Ganga, Brahmaputra and the Indus. In order to improve our understanding about the source of precipitation and hydrograph components in the interior Himalayan glaciers, it is important to decipher the sources of moisture and their contribution to the glaciers in this river system. In doing so, we conducted an extensive pilot study in a Sutri Dhaka glacier, western Himalaya during 2014-15. To determine the moisture sources, rain, surface snow, ice, and stream meltwater samples were collected and analyzed for stable oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen (δD) isotopes. A two-component hydrograph separation was performed for the glacier stream using these isotopes assuming the contribution of rain, groundwater and spring water contribution is negligible based on field studies and available literature. To validate the results obtained from hydrograph separation using above method, snow and ice melt ablation were measured using a network of bamboo stakes and snow pits. The δ¹⁸O and δD in rain samples range from -5.3% to -20.8% and -31.7% to -148.4% respectively. It is noteworthy to observe that the rain samples showed enriched values in the early season (July-August) and progressively get depleted at the end of the season (September). This could be due to the ‘amount effect’. Similarly, old snow samples have shown enriched isotopic values compared to fresh snow. This could because of the sublimation processes operating over the old surface snow. The δ¹⁸O and δD values in glacier ice samples range from -11.6% to -15.7% and -31.7% to -148.4%, whereas in a Sutri Dhaka meltwater stream, it ranges from -12.7% to -16.2% and -82.9% to -112.7% respectively. The mean deuterium excess (d-excess) value in all collected samples exceeds more than 16% which suggests the predominant moisture source of precipitation is from the Western Disturbances. Our detailed estimates of the hydrograph separation of Sutri Dhaka meltwater using isotope hydrograph separation and glaciological field methods agree within their uncertainty; stream meltwater budget is dominated by glaciers ice melt over snowmelt. The present study provides insights into the sources of moisture, controlling mechanism of the isotopic characteristics of Sutri Dhaka glacier water and helps in understanding the snow and ice melt components in Chandra basin, Western Himalaya.

Keywords: D-excess, hydrograph separation, Sutri Dhaka, stable water isotope, western Himalaya

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

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Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

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Authors: J. Julius Adebayo

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The objective of this paper is to assess the agro-climatic condition of Ibadan in the rain forest ecological zone of Nigeria, using rainfall pattern and temperature between 1978-2018. Data on rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Oyo State for a period of 40 years were obtained from Meteorological Section of Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan and Oyo State Meteorology Centre. Time series analysis was employed to analyze the data. The trend revealed that rainfall is decreasing slowly and temperature is averagely increasing year after year. The model for rainfall and temperature are Yₜ = 1454.11-8*t and Yₜ = 31.5995 + 2.54 E-02*t respectively, where t is the time. On this basis, a forecast of 20 years (2019-2038) was generated, and the results showed a further downward trend on rainfall and upward trend in temperature, this indicates persistence rainfall shortage and very hot weather for agricultural practices in the southwest rain forest ecological zone. Suggestions on possible solutions to avert climate change crisis and also promote climate-smart agriculture for sustainable food and nutrition security were also discussed.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall pattern, temperature, time series analysis, food and nutrition security

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Authors: Wei Yongxiang, Zhu Haoyue, Tang Heng, Yuan Qunwei

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In order to study the preparation method of gear fatigue load spectrum for loaders, the load signal of four typical working conditions of loader is collected. The signal that reflects the law of load change is obtained by preprocessing the original signal. The torque of the drive axle is calculated by using the rain flow counting method. According to the operating time ratio of each working condition, the two-dimensional load spectrum based on the real working conditions of the drive axle of loader is established by the cycle extrapolation and synthesis method. The two-dimensional load spectrum is converted into one-dimensional load spectrum by means of the mean of torque equal damage method. Torque amplification includes the maximum load torque of the main reduction gear. Based on the theory of equal damage, the accelerated cycles are calculated. In this way, the load spectrum of the loading condition of the drive axle is prepared to reflect loading condition of the loader. The load spectrum can provide reference for fatigue life test and life prediction of loader drive axle.

Keywords: load spectrum, axle, torque, rain-flow counting method, extrapolation

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Authors: Mohamed Ahmed Gesraha, Amany Ramadan Ebeid

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Aphids are noxious and serious persistent pests in the open fields worldwide. Many authors studied the possibility of aphid control by applying Ladybirds and Lacewings at different releasing rates under open-field conditions. Results clarify that releasing 3rd instar larvae of Coccinella undecimpunctata at the rate of 1 larva:50 aphid was more effective than 1:100 or 1:200 rates for controlling Aphis gossypii population in Okra field; reflecting more than 90% reduction in the aphid population within 15 days. When Chrysoperla carnea 2nd larval instar were releasing at 1:5, 1:10, and 1:20 (predator: aphid), it was noticed that the former rate was the most effective one, inducing 98.93% reduction in aphid population; while the two other rates reflecting less reduction. Additionally, in the case of double releases, the reduction percentage at the 1:5 rate was 99.63%, emphasize that this rate was the most effective one; the other rates induced 97.05 and 95.64% reduction. Generally, a double release was more effective in all tested rates than the single one because of the cumulative existence of the predators in large numbers at the same period of the experiment. It could be concluded that utilizing insect predators (Coccinella undecimpunctata or Chrysoperla carnea) at an early larval stag were faire enough to reduce the aphids’ populations under open fields conditions.

Keywords: releasing predators, lacewings, ladybird, open fields

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Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

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The study identifies the impact of inflation and foreign exchange rate on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. Inflation and exchange rates are used as independent variables and foreign direct investment is taken as dependent variable. Discreet time series data has been used from the period of 1999 to 2009. The results of regression analysis reveal that high inflation has negative impact on foreign direct investment and higher exchange rates has positive impact on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. The inflation and foreign exchange rates both are insignificant in the analysis.

Keywords: inflation rate, foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment, foreign assets

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Authors: A. Kazemi Jouybari, A. Mirabdolah Lavasani

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This paper seeks to the solution of condensation around of a flat plate, circular and elliptical tube in way of numerical and analytical methods. Also, it calculates the entropy production rates. The first, problem was solved by using mesh dynamic and rational assumptions, next it was compared with the numerical solution that the result had acceptable errors. An additional supporting relation was applied based on a characteristic of condensation phenomenon for condensing elements. As it has been shown here, due to higher rates of heat transfer for elliptical tubes, they have more entropy production rates, in comparison to circular ones. Findings showed that two methods were efficient. Furthermore, analytical methods can be used to optimize the problem and reduce the entropy production rate.

Keywords: condensation, numerical solution, analytical solution, entropy rate

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

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Authors: V. Nikkhah Rashidabad, M. Manteghian, M. Masoumi, S. Mousavian

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In this research, the changes in bubbles diameter and number that may occur due to the change in heat flux of pure water during pool boiling process. For this purpose, test equipment was designed and developed to collect test data. The bubbles were graded using Caliper Screen software. To calculate the growth and nucleation rates of bubbles under different fluxes, population balance model was employed. The results show that the increase in heat flux from q=20 kw/m2 to q=102 kw/m2 raised the growth and nucleation rates of bubbles.

Keywords: heat flux, bubble growth, bubble nucleation, population balance model

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Authors: Kazuki Kohama, Hiroko Ono

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The rainfall in Japan is gradually increasing every year according to Japan Meteorological Agency and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. It means that the rainfall difference between rainy season and non-rainfall is increasing. In addition, the increasing trend of strong rain for a short time clearly appears. In recent years, natural disasters have caused enormous human injuries in various parts of Japan. Regarding water disaster, local heavy rain and floods of large rivers occur frequently, and it was decided on a policy to promote hard and soft sides as emergency disaster prevention measures with water disaster prevention awareness social reconstruction vision. Okinawa prefecture in subtropical region has torrential rain and water disaster several times a year such as river flood, in which is caused in specific rivers from all 97 rivers. Also, the shortage of capacity and narrow width are characteristic of river in Okinawa and easily cause river flood in heavy rain. This study focuses on Kohatu River that is one of the specific rivers. In fact, the water level greatly rises over the river levee almost once a year but non-damage of buildings around. On the other hand in some case, the water level reaches to ground floor height of house and has happed nine times until today. The purpose of this research is to figure out relationship between precipitation, surface outflow and total treatment water quantity of Kohatu River. For the purpose, we perform hydrological analysis although is complicated and needs specific details or data so that, the method is mainly using Geographic Information System software and outflow analysis system. At first, we extract watershed and then divided to 23 catchment areas to understand how much surface outflow flows to runoff point in each 10 minutes. On second, we create Unit Hydrograph indicating the area of surface outflow with flow area and time. This index shows the maximum amount of surface outflow at 2400 to 3000 seconds. Lastly, we compare an estimated value from Unit Hydrograph to a measured value. However, we found that measure value is usually lower than measured value because of evaporation and transpiration. In this study, hydrograph analysis was performed using GIS software and outflow analysis system. Based on these, we could clarify the flood time and amount of surface outflow.

Keywords: disaster prevention, water disaster, river flood, GIS software

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Authors: Adesola O. Orimoloye, Mohammed N. Kajama, Edward Gobina

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Gas permeation of Oxygen [O2] and Nitrogen [N2] were investigated at room temperature using 15 and 6000nm pore diameter tubular commercial alumina ceramic membranes with pressure values ranging 1.00 to 2.50 bar. The flow rates of up to 2.59 and 2.77 l/min were achieved for O2 and N2 respectively. The ratio of O2/N2 flow rates were used to compute the O2/N2 selectivity. The experimental O2/N2 selectivity obtained for 15 nm was 1.05 while the 6000 nm indicated 0.95.

Keywords: gas separation, nitrogen, oxygen, selectivity

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Authors: Minho Kwon, Jeonghee Lim, Yeongseok Jeong, Donghoon Shin, Kiyoung Kim

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Recently, global warming phenomenon has led to natural disasters caused by global environmental changes, and due to abnormal weather events, the frequency and intensity of heavy rain storm typhoons are increasing. Therefore, it is imperative to prepare for future heavy rain storms and typhoons. This study selects arbitrary target bridges and performs numerical analysis to evaluate the safety of bridge piers in the event that the water level changes. The numerical model is based on two-dimensional surface elements. Actual reinforced concrete was simulated by modeling concrete to include reinforcements, and a contact boundary model was applied between the ground and the concrete. The water level applied to the piers was considered at 18 levels between 7.5 m and 16.1 m. The elastic modulus, compressive strength, tensile strength, and yield strength of the reinforced concrete were calculated using 250 random combinations and numerical analysis was carried out for each water level. In the results of analysis, the bridge exceeded the stated limit at 15.0 m. At the maximum water level of 16.1m, the concrete’s failure rate was 35.2%, but the probability that the reinforcement would fail was 61.2%.

Keywords: Monte-Carlo method, pier, water level change, limit state

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Authors: Prakash Karrun, M. Manoj Deepak, Mathivanan, K. Venkatachalam

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Our study aims to evaluate the rates of healing and the efficacy of the arthroscopic repair of the rotator cuff tears. 40 patients who had rotator cuff tears were taken up for the study and arthroscopic repair was done with double row technique.They were evaluated and followed up for a minimum of 2 years minimum.The functional status,range of motion and healing rates were compared post operatively. All the patients were followed up with serial questionnaires and MRI at the end of 2 years. There was significant improvement in the functional status of the patient. The MRI showed better rates of healing in these patients.Thus our study effectively proves the efficacy of our operating technique.

Keywords: rotator cuff tear, arthroscopic repair, double stich, healing

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Authors: Yee Hui Lim, Elena Gusareva, Irvan Luhung, Yulia Frank, Stephan Christoph Schuster

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Environmental pollution from microplastics (MPs) is an emerging concern worldwide. While the presence of microplastics has been well established in the marine and terrestrial environments, the prevalence of microplastics in the atmosphere is still poorly understood. Wet depositions such as rain or snow scavenge impurities from the atmosphere as it falls to the ground. These wet depositions serve as a useful tool in the removal of airborne particles that are suspended in the air. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the presence of atmospheric microplastics and fibres through the analysis of air, rainwater and snow samples. Air samples were collected with filter-based air samplers from outdoor locations in Singapore. The sampling campaigns were conducted during and after each rain event. Rainwater samples from Singapore and Siberia were collected as well. Snow samples were also collected from Siberia as part of the ongoing study. Genomic DNA was then extracted from the samples and sequenced with shotgun metagenomics approach. qPCR analysis was conducted to quantify the total bacteria and fungi in the air, rainwater and snow samples. The results compared the bioaerosol profiles of all the samples. To observe the presence of microplastics, scanning electron microscope (SEM) was used. From the preliminary results, microplastics were detected. It can be concluded that there is a significant amount of atmospheric microplastics present, and its occurrence should be investigated in greater detail.

Keywords: atmospheric microplastics, metagenomics, scanning electron microscope, wet deposition

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Authors: Oluronke Odunjo

Abstract:

The world is becoming increasingly urbanized and Nigeria is not left out. One of the indicators of human developments is housing and as such, water is needed by households for survival. This Paper assesses sources of water being used by residents in the newly urbanized areas of Ogbomoso, Southwest, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used and Oke-Adunin Community was purposively selected for the study as it has large concentration of staff and students of Ladoke Akintola University of Technology. The area was captured with Google earth and two hundred and twenty two inhabited houses were found. Questionnaire was the instrument for data collection which was administered using total enumeration technique. Data obtained however, were analyzed with descriptive and inferential statistical analyses. Findings revealed that most of the respondents were male, while 36.03% house owners were between the ages of 46 and 55 years. Sources of water used by residents include well (56.94%), water vendors (17.77%), rain (15.29%) and borehole (3.72%). Distance travelled by house owners to sources of water was as high as 5.06 metres, resulting into stress (30.00 %), depression (25.00%) and aggressiveness (18.75%). Result of correlation analysis between the sources of water of respondents and disease prevalence showed that both rain water and water vendor had very strong positive correlation with typhoid, diarrhea and dysentery, while well water only had positive correlation with dysentery. Recommendations were therefore, proffered towards solving the problems associated with water in the area.

Keywords: newly urbanized area, Ogbomoso, sources of water, residents

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Authors: Anders Schou Simonsen, Thomas Condra, Kim Sørensen

Abstract:

Various processes are modelled using a discrete phase, where particles are seeded from a source. Such particles can represent liquid water droplets, which are affecting the continuous phase by exchanging thermal energy, momentum, species etc. Discrete phases are typically modelled using parcel, which represents a collection of particles, which share properties such as temperature, velocity etc. When coupling the phases, the exchange rates are integrated over the cell, in which the parcel is located. This can cause spikes and fluctuating exchange rates. This paper presents an alternative method of coupling a discrete and a continuous plug flow phase. This is done using triangular parcels, which span between nodes following the dynamics of single droplets. Thus, the triangular parcels are propagated using the corner nodes. At each time step, the exchange rates are spatially integrated over the surface of the triangular parcels, which yields a smooth continuous exchange rate to the continuous phase. The results shows that the method is more stable, converges slightly faster and yields smooth exchange rates compared with the steam tube approach. However, the computational requirements are about five times greater, so the applicability of the alternative method should be limited to processes, where the exchange rates are important. The overall balances of the exchanged properties did not change significantly using the new approach.

Keywords: CFD, coupling, discrete phase, parcel

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

Abstract:

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Abdulfatah Faraj Aboufayed

Abstract:

Water erosion is the most important problems of the soil in the Jebel Nefusa area located in north west of Libya, therefore erosion station had been established in the Faculty of Veterinary and rainfed agriculture research Station, University of the Jepel Algherbee in Zentan. The length of the station is 72.6 feet, 6 feet width, and the percentage of it's slope is 3%. The station was established to measure the mount of soil eroded and amount of surface water produced during the seasons 95/96 and 96/97 from each rain storms. The Monitoring shows that there was a difference between the two seasons in the number of rainstorms which made differences in the amount of surface runoff water and the amount of soil eroded between the two seasons. Although the slope is low (3%), the soil texture is sandy and the land ploughed twice during each season surface runoff and soil eroded occurred. The average amount of eroded soil was 3792 grams (gr) per season and the average amount of surface runoff water was 410 litter (L) per season. The amount of surface runoff water would be much greater from Jebel Nefusa upland with steep slopes and collecting of them will save a valuable amount of water which lost as a runoff while this area is in desperate of this water. The regression analysis of variance show strong correlation between rainfall depth and the other two depended variable (the amount of surface runoff water and the amount of eroded soil). It shows also strong correlation between amount of surface runoff water and amount of eroded soil.

Keywords: rain, surface runoff water, soil, water erosion, soil erosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 362