Search results for: exceedance probability

Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

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Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

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At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. These findings need to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier

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Authors: Ahmet Kaya

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Incoming cash flows and outgoing claims play an important role to determine how is companies’ profit or loss. In this matter, ruin probability provides to describe vulnerability of the companies against ruin. Quantum mechanism is one of the significant approaches to model ruin probability as stochastically. Using the Hamiltonian method, we have performed formalisation of quantum mechanics < x|e-ᵗᴴ|x' > and obtained the transition probability of 2x2 and 3x3 matrix as traditional and eigenvector basis where A is a ruin operator and H|x' > is a Schroedinger equation. This operator A and Schroedinger equation are defined by a Hamiltonian matrix H. As a result, probability of not to be in ruin can be simulated and calculated as stochastically.

Keywords: ruin probability, quantum mechanics, Hamiltonian technique, operator approach

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Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

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Authors: Rene Jimenez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Miguel A. Orellana

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On 09/19/2017, a Mw = 7.1 intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico causing the collapse of about 40 buildings. Many of these were 5- or 6-story buildings with soft first story; so, it is desirable to perform a structural fragility analysis of typical structures representative of those buildings and to propose a reliable structural solution. Here, a typical 5-story building constituted by regular R/C moment-resisting frames in the first story and confined masonry walls in the upper levels, similar to the collapsed structures on the 09/19/2017 Mexico earthquake, is analyzed. Three different structural solutions of the 5-story building are considered: S1) it is designed in accordance with the Mexico City Building Code-2004; S2) then, the column dimensions of the first story corresponding to S1 are reduced, and S3) viscous dampers are added at the first story of solution S2. A number of dynamic incremental analyses are performed for each structural solution, using a 3D structural model. The hysteretic behavior model of the masonry was calibrated with experiments performed at the Laboratory of Structures at UNAM. Ten seismic ground motions are used to excite the structures; they correspond to ground motions recorded in intermediate soil of Mexico City with a dominant period around 1s, where the structures are located. The fragility curves of the buildings are obtained for different values of the maximum inter-story drift demands. Results show that solutions S1 and S3 give place to similar probabilities of exceedance of a given value of inter-story drift for the same seismic intensity, and that solution S2 presents a higher probability of exceedance for the same seismic intensity and inter-story drift demand. Therefore, it is concluded that solution S3 (which corresponds to the building with soft first story and energy dissipation devices) can be a reliable solution from the structural point of view.

Keywords: demand hazard analysis, fragility curves, incremental dynamic analyzes, soft-first story, structural capacity

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Authors: Naoyuki Sugihashi, Toshiharu Kishi

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The probability of occurrence of thermal cracks in mass concrete in Japan is evaluated by the cracking probability diagram that represents the relationship between the thermal cracking index and the probability of occurrence of cracks in the actual structure. In this paper, we propose a method to directly calculate the cracking probability, following a probabilistic theory by modeling the variance of tensile stress and tensile strength. In this method, the relationship between the variance of tensile stress and tensile strength, the thermal cracking index, and the cracking probability are formulated and presented. In addition, standard deviation of tensile stress and tensile strength was identified, and the method of calculating cracking probability in a general construction controlled environment was also demonstrated.

Keywords: thermal crack control, mass concrete, thermal cracking probability, durability of concrete, calculating method of cracking probability

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Authors: Kennedy Efosa Ehimwenma, Sujatha Krishnamoorthy, Safiya Al‑Sharji

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The probability computation of events is in the interval of [0, 1], which are values that are determined by the number of outcomes of events in a sample space S. The probability Pr(A) that an event A will never occur is 0. The probability Pr(B) that event B will certainly occur is 1. This makes both events A and B a certainty. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities Pr(E₁) + Pr(E₂) + … + Pr(Eₙ) of a finite set of events in a given sample space S equals 1. Conversely, the difference of the sum of two probabilities that will certainly occur is 0. This paper first discusses Bayes, the complement of probability, and the difference of probability for occurrences of learning-events before applying them in the prediction of learning objects in student learning. Given the sum of 1; to make a recommendation for student learning, this paper proposes that the difference of argMaxPr(S) and the probability of student-performance quantifies the weight of learning objects for students. Using a dataset of skill-set, the computational procedure demonstrates i) the probability of skill-set events that have occurred that would lead to higher-level learning; ii) the probability of the events that have not occurred that requires subject-matter relearning; iii) accuracy of the decision tree in the prediction of student performance into class labels and iv) information entropy about skill-set data and its implication on student cognitive performance and recommendation of learning.

Keywords: complement of probability, Bayes’ rule, prediction, pre-assessments, computational education, information theory

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Authors: Ahmet Kaya

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Quantum mechanism is one of the most important approaches to calculating non-ruin probability. We apply standard Dirac notation to model given Hamiltonians. By using the traditional method and eigenvector basis, non-ruin probability is found for several examples. Also, non-ruin probability is calculated for two different Hamiltonian by using the tensor product. Finally, the path integral method is applied to the examples and comparison is made for stochastic simulations and path integral calculation.

Keywords: quantum physics, Hamiltonian system, path integral, tensor product, ruin probability

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Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu

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In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.

Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model

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Authors: Federico Valenzuela-Beltran, Sonia E. Ruiz, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Juan Bojorquez

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A reliability-based methodology which uses structural demand hazard curves to consider the increment of the ductility demands of structures with tilting is proposed. The approach considers the effect of two orthogonal components of the ground motions as well as the influence of soil-structure interaction. The approach involves the calculation of ductility demand hazard curves for symmetric systems and, alternatively, for systems with different degrees of asymmetry. To get this objective, demand hazard curves corresponding to different global ductility demands of the systems are calculated. Next, Uniform Exceedance Rate Spectra (UERS) are developed for a specific mean annual rate of exceedance value. Ratios between UERS corresponding to asymmetric and to symmetric systems located in soft soil of the valley of Mexico are obtained. Results indicate that the ductility demands corresponding to tilted structures may be several times higher than those corresponding to symmetric structures, depending on several factors such as tilting angle and vibration period of structure and soil.

Keywords: asymmetric yielding, seismic performance, structural reliability, tilted structures

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Chen

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This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.

Keywords: approaching index, forward collision probability, time to collision, time headway

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Authors: Noushin Naraghi Araghi, M. Nawawi, Syed Mustafizur Rahman

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This paper presents the effect of Sumatra fault earthquakes on west Malaysia by calculating the peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA). PGA is calculated by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). A uniform catalog of earthquakes for the interest region has been provided. We used empirical relations to convert all magnitudes to Moment Magnitude. After eliminating foreshocks and aftershocks in order to achieve more reliable results, the completeness of the catalog and uncertainty of magnitudes have been estimated and seismicity parameters were calculated. Our seismic source model considers the Sumatran strike slip fault that is known historically to generate large earthquakes. The calculations were done using the logic tree method and four attenuation relationships and slip rates for different part of this fault. Seismic hazard assessment carried out for 48 grid points. Eventually, two seismic hazard maps based PGA for 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 year are presented.

Keywords: Sumatra fault, west Malaysia, PGA, seismic parameters

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Authors: Majid Saaly, Shahriar Tavousi Tafreshi, Mehdi Nazari Afshar

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Most reinforced concrete structures are designed only under heavy loads have large transverse reinforcement spacing values, and therefore suffer severe failure after intense ground movements. The main goal of this paper is to compare the shear- and axial failure of concrete bending frames available in Tehran using incremental dynamic analysis under near- and far-field records. For this purpose, IDA analyses of 5, 10, and 15-story concrete structures were done under seven far-fault records and five near-faults records. The results show that in two-dimensional models of short-rise, mid-rise and high-rise reinforced concrete frames located on Type-3 soil, increasing the distance of the transverse reinforcement can increase the maximum inter-story drift ratio values up to 37%. According to the existing results on 5, 10, and 15-story reinforced concrete models located on Type-3 soil, records with characteristics such as fling-step and directivity create maximum drift values between floors more than far-fault earthquakes. The results indicated that in the case of seismic excitation modes under earthquake encompassing directivity or fling-step, the probability values of failure and failure possibility increasing rate values are much smaller than the corresponding values of far-fault earthquakes. However, in near-fault frame records, the probability of exceedance occurs at lower seismic intensities compared to far-fault records.

Keywords: IDA, failure curve, directivity, maximum floor drift, fling step, evaluating probable bending of frames, near-field and far-field earthquake records

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River

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Authors: Komeil Valipourian

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Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method (FDM)

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Quznetsov Gunn

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In the study of the logical foundations of probability theory, it was found that the terms and equations of the fundamental theoretical physics represent terms and theorems of the classical probability theory, more precisely, of that part of this theory, which considers the probability of dot events in the 3 + 1 space-time. In particular, the masses, moments, energies, spins, etc. turn out of parameters of probability distributions such events. The terms and the equations of the electroweak and of the quark-gluon theories turn out the theoretical-probabilistic terms and theorems. Here the relation of a neutrino to his lepton becomes clear, the W and Z bosons masses turn out dynamic ones, the cause of the asymmetry between particles and antiparticles is the impossibility of the birth of single antiparticles. In addition, phenomena such as confinement and asymptotic freedom receive their probabilistic explanation. And here we have the logical foundations of the gravity theory with phenomena dark energy and dark matter.

Keywords: classical theory of probability, logical foundation of fundamental theoretical physics, masses, moments, energies, spins

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Authors: Sean Sloan

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Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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Authors: Sule Sahin, Basak Bulut Karageyik

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This paper introduces a hazard rate function for the time of ruin to calculate the conditional probability of ruin for very small intervals. We call this function the force of ruin (FoR). We obtain the expected time of ruin and conditional expected time of ruin from the exact finite time ruin probability with exponential claim amounts. Then we introduce the FoR which gives the conditional probability of ruin and the condition is that ruin has not occurred at time t. We analyse the behavior of the FoR function for different initial surpluses over a specific time interval. We also obtain FoR under the excess of loss reinsurance arrangement and examine the effect of reinsurance on the FoR.

Keywords: conditional time of ruin, finite time ruin probability, force of ruin, reinsurance

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Authors: Junling Li, Fang Meng, Yichun Zhang

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Image saliency detection has been long studied, while several challenging problems are still unsolved, such as detecting saliency inaccurately in complex scenes or suppressing salient objects in the image borders. In this paper, we propose a new saliency detection algorithm in order to solving these problems. We represent the image as a graph with superixels as nodes. By considering appearance similarity between the boundary and the background, the proposed method chooses non-saliency boundary nodes as background priors to construct the background probability model. The probability that each node belongs to the model is computed, which measures its similarity with backgrounds. Thus we can calculate saliency by the transformed probability as a metric. We compare our algorithm with ten-state-of-the-art salient detection methods on the public database. Experimental results show that our simple and effective approach can attack those challenging problems that had been baffling in image saliency detection.

Keywords: visual saliency, background probability, boundary knowledge, background priors

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová, Jaroslav Žák

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Formation of tensile cracks in concrete slabs of rigid pavement can be (among others) the initiation point of the other, more serious failures which can ultimately lead to complete degradation of the concrete slab and thus the whole pavement. Two measures can be used for reliability assessment of this phenomenon - the probability of failure and/or the reliability index. Different methods can be used for their calculation. The simple ones are called moment methods and simulation techniques. Two methods - FOSM Method and Simple Random Sampling Method - are verified and their comparison is performed. The influence of information about the probability distribution and the statistical parameters of input variables as well as of the limit state function on the calculated reliability index and failure probability are studied in three points on the lower surface of concrete slabs of the older type of rigid pavement formerly used in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: failure, pavement, probability, reliability index, simulation, tensile crack

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Authors: Aparna Lal, Ashwin Swaminathan, Teisa Holani

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Background: Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) have been on the rise globally. In Australia, rates of CDI in all States and Territories have increased significantly since mid-2011. Identifying risk factors for CDI in the community can help inform targeted interventions to reduce infection. Methods: We examine the role of neighbourhood socio-economic status, demography, testing practices and the number of residential aged care facilities on spatial patterns in CDI incidence in the Australian Capital Territory. Data on all tests conducted for CDI were obtained from ACT Pathology by postcode for the period 1st January 2004 through 31 December 2014. Distribution of age groups and the neighbourhood Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage Disadvantage (IRSAD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 National Census data. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the postcode level to quantify the relationship between CDI and socio-demographic factors. To identify CDI hotspots, exceedance probabilities were set at a threshold of twice the estimated relative risk. Results: CDI showed a positive spatial association with the number of tests (RR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.02) and the resident population over 65 years (RR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). The standardized index of relative socio-economic advantage disadvantage (IRSAD) was significantly negatively associated with CDI (RR=0.74, 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). We identified three postcodes with high probability (0.8-1.0) of excess risk. Conclusions: Here, we demonstrate geographic variations in CDI in the ACT with a positive association of CDI with socioeconomic disadvantage and identify areas with a high probability of elevated risk compared with surrounding communities. These findings highlight community-based risk factors for CDI.

Keywords: spatial, socio-demographic, infection, Clostridium difficile

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Authors: Jerry Hu

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Let G = (V, E) with V = {1, 2, ..., k} be a graph, the k positive integers a₁, a₂, ..., ak are G-wise relatively prime if (aᵢ, aⱼ ) = 1 for {i, j} ∈ E. We use an inductive approach to give an asymptotic formula for the number of k-tuples of integers that are G-wise relatively prime. An exact formula is obtained for the probability that k positive integers are G-wise relatively prime. As a corollary, we also provide an exact formula for the probability that k positive integers have exactly r relatively prime pairs.

Keywords: graph, independent set, G-wise relatively prime, probability

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Authors: Can Liu, Graham Markowitz, John Balay, Ben Pratt

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Baseline or natural hydrology is commonly employed for hydrologic modeling and quantification of hydrologic alteration due to manmade activities. It can inform planning and policy related efforts for various state and federal water resource agencies to restore natural streamflow flow regimes. A common challenge faced by hydrologists is how to replicate unaltered streamflow conditions, particularly in large watershed settings prone to development and regulation. Three different methods were employed to estimate baseline streamflow conditions for 6 major subbasins the Susquehanna River Basin; those being: 1) incorporation of consumptive water use and reservoir operations back into regulated gaged records; 2) using a map correlation method and flow duration (exceedance probability) regression equations; 3) extending the pre-regulation streamflow records based on the relationship between concurrent streamflows at unregulated and regulated gage locations. Parallel analyses were perform among the three methods and limitations associated with each are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that generating baseline streamflow records at large-scale watersheds remain challenging, even with long-term continuous stream gage records available.

Keywords: baseline hydrology, streamflow gage, subbasin, regression

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Authors: Bahareh Zare

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The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

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Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

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This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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Statistical inference of normal mean with known coefficient of variation has been investigated recently. This phenomenon occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments when the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. In this paper, we constructed new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. We also derived analytic expressions for the coverage probability of each confidence interval. To confirm our theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their coverage probabilities.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation

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