Search results for: predictors of severity
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1378

Search results for: predictors of severity

1258 PM10 Prediction and Forecasting Using CART: A Case Study for Pleven, Bulgaria

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

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1257 Sensing to Respond & Recover in Emergency

Authors: Alok Kumar, Raviraj Patil

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The ability to respond to an incident of a disastrous event in a vulnerable area is very crucial an aspect of emergency management. The ability to constantly predict the likelihood of an event along with its severity in an area and react to those significant events which are likely to have a high impact allows the authorities to respond by allocating resources optimally in a timely manner. It provides for measuring, monitoring, and modeling facilities that integrate underlying systems into one solution to improve operational efficiency, planning, and coordination. We were particularly involved in this innovative incubation work on the current state of research and development in collaboration. technologies & systems for a disaster.

Keywords: predictive analytics, advanced analytics, area flood likelihood model, area flood severity model, level of impact model, mortality score, economic loss score, resource allocation, crew allocation

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1256 Socio-Demographic Predictors of Divorce Adjustment in Pakistani Women

Authors: Rukhsana Kausar, Nida Zafar

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The present research investigated socio-demographic predictors of divorce adjustment in Pakistani women. The sample comprised of 80 divorced women from different areas of Lahore. Self developed Socio-Demographic predictor scale and Divorce Adjustment Scale by (Fisher, 2001) was used for assessment. Analyses showed that working divorced women living with joint family system are more adjusted as compared to non-working divorced women living with joint family system. Women having one child are more adjusted as compared to women having more than one child. Findings highlight importance of presence of father for healthy development of adolescents. Adjustment of divorcee women was positively associated with income, social support from the family, having favorable attitudes toward marital dissolution prior to divorce, and being the partner who initiated the divorce. In addition, older women showed some evidence of poorer adjustment than did younger women. Findings highlight importance of support for divorce adjustment.

Keywords: socio-demographic, adjustment, women, divorce

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1255 Prognostic Value of C-Reactive Protein (CRP) in SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Simplified Biomarker of COVID-19 Severity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Mahmud Abdulkader, Tobias Rinke De Wit, Britta C. Urban, Feyissa Chala, Yazezew Kebede, Dawit Welday

Abstract:

Background: C-reactive protein (CRP) levels are a reliable surrogate for interleukin-6 bioactivity that plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of cytokine storm associated with severe COVID-19. There is a lack of data on the role of CRP as a determinant of COVID-19 severity status in the African context. Methods: We determined the longitudinal kinetics of CRP levels on 78 RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients (49 non-severe and 29 severe cases) and 50 PCR-negative controls. Results: COVID-19 patients had overall significantly elevated CRP at baseline when compared to PCR-negative controls [median 11.1 (IQR: 2.0-127.8) mg/L vs. 0.9 (IQR: 0.5-1.9) mg/L; p=0.0004)]. Moreover, severe COVID-19 patients had significantly higher median CRP levels than non-severe cases [166.1 (IQR: 48.6-332.5) mg/L vs. 2.4 (IQR: 1.2-7.6) mg/L; p<0.00001)]. In addition, persistently elevated levels of CRP were exhibited among those with comorbidities and higher age groups. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis of CRP levels distinguished PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients from the ones with PCR-negative non-COVID-19 individuals, with an AUC value of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.68-0.84; p=0.001). Moreover, it clearly distinguished severe from non-severe COVID-19 patients, with an AUC value of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.91). After adjusting for age and the presence of comorbidities, CRP levels above 30 mg/L were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19 (adjusted relative risk 3.99 (95%CI: 1.35-11.82; p=0.013). Conclusions: Determining CRP levels in COVID-19 patients in African settings may provide a simple, prompt, and inexpensive assessment of the severity status at baseline and monitoring of treatment outcomes.

Keywords: CRP, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, biomarker

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1254 Calculating Ventricle’s Area Based on Clinical Dementia Rating Values on Coronal MRI Image

Authors: Retno Supriyanti, Ays Rahmadian Subhi, Yogi Ramadhani, Haris B. Widodo

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Alzheimer is one type of disease in the elderly that may occur in the world. The severity of the Alzheimer can be measured using a scale called Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) based on a doctor's diagnosis of the patient's condition. Currently, diagnosis of Alzheimer often uses MRI machine, to know the condition of part of the brain called Hippocampus and Ventricle. MRI image itself consists of 3 slices, namely Coronal, Sagittal and Axial. In this paper, we discussed the measurement of the area of the ventricle especially in the Coronal slice based on the severity level referring to the CDR value. We use Active Contour method to segment the ventricle’s region, therefore that ventricle’s area can be calculated automatically. The results show that this method can be used for further development in the automatic diagnosis of Alzheimer.

Keywords: Alzheimer, CDR, coronal, ventricle, active contour

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1253 Pre-Operative Psychological Factors Significantly Add to the Predictability of Chronic Narcotic Use: A Two Year Prospective Study

Authors: Dana El-Mughayyar, Neil Manson, Erin Bigney, Eden Richardson, Dean Tripp, Edward Abraham

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Use of narcotics to treat pain has increased over the past two decades and is a contributing factor to the current public health crisis. Understanding the pre-operative risks of chronic narcotic use may be aided through investigation of psychological measures. The objective of the reported study is to determine predictors of narcotic use two years post-surgery in a thoracolumbar spine surgery population, including an array of psychological factors. A prospective observational study of 191 consecutively enrolled adult patients having undergone thoracolumbar spine surgery is presented. Baseline measures of interest included the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia, Multidimensional Scale for Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire (CPAQ-8), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Numeric Rating Scales for back and leg pain (NRS-B/L), SF-12’s Mental Component Summary (MCS), narcotic use and demographic variables. The post-operative measure of interest is narcotic use at 2-year follow-up. Narcotic use is collapsed into binary categories of use and no use. Descriptive statistics are run. Chi Square analysis is used for categorical variables and an ANOVA for continuous variables. Significant variables are built into a hierarchical logistic regression to determine predictors of post-operative narcotic use. Significance is set at α < 0.05. Results: A total of 27.23% of the sample were using narcotics two years after surgery. The regression model included ODI, NRS-Leg, time with condition, chief complaint, pre-operative drug use, gender, MCS, PCS subscale helplessness, and CPAQ subscale pain willingness and was significant χ² (13, N=191)= 54.99; p = .000. The model accounted for 39.6% of the variance in narcotic use and correctly predicted in 79.7% of cases. Psychological variables accounted for 9.6% of the variance over and above the other predictors. Conclusions: Managing chronic narcotic usage is central to the patient’s overall health and quality of life. Psychological factors in the preoperative period are significant predictors of narcotic use 2 years post-operatively. The psychological variables are malleable, potentially allowing surgeons to direct their patients to preventative resources prior to surgery.

Keywords: narcotics, psychological factors, quality of life, spine surgery

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1252 Predictors of School Safety Awareness among Malaysian Primary School Teachers

Authors: Ssekamanya, Mastura Badzis, Khamsiah Ismail, Dayang Shuzaidah Bt Abduludin

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With rising incidents of school violence worldwide, educators and researchers are trying to understand and find ways to enhance the safety of children at school. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which the demographic variables of gender, age, length of service, position, academic qualification, and school location predicted teachers’ awareness about school safety practices in Malaysian primary schools. A stratified random sample of 380 teachers was selected in the central Malaysian states of Kuala Lumpur and Selangor. Multiple regression analysis revealed that none of the factors was a good predictor of awareness about school safety training, delivery methods of school safety information, and available school safety programs. Awareness about school safety activities was significantly predicted by school location (whether the school was located in a rural or urban area). While these results may reflect a general lack of awareness about school safety among primary school teachers in the selected locations, a national study needs to be conducted for the whole country.

Keywords: school safety awareness, predictors of school safety, multiple regression analysis, malaysian primary schools

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1251 Protein Remote Homology Detection by Using Profile-Based Matrix Transformation Approaches

Authors: Bin Liu

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As one of the most important tasks in protein sequence analysis, protein remote homology detection has been studied for decades. Currently, the profile-based methods show state-of-the-art performance. Position-Specific Frequency Matrix (PSFM) is widely used profile. However, there exists noise information in the profiles introduced by the amino acids with low frequencies. In this study, we propose a method to remove the noise information in the PSFM by removing the amino acids with low frequencies called Top frequency profile (TFP). Three new matrix transformation methods, including Autocross covariance (ACC) transformation, Tri-gram, and K-separated bigram (KSB), are performed on these profiles to convert them into fixed length feature vectors. Combined with Support Vector Machines (SVMs), the predictors are constructed. Evaluated on two benchmark datasets, and experimental results show that these proposed methods outperform other state-of-the-art predictors.

Keywords: protein remote homology detection, protein fold recognition, top frequency profile, support vector machines

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1250 The Predictors of Head and Neck Cancer-Head and Neck Cancer-Related Lymphedema in Patients with Resected Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

Authors: Shu-Ching Chen, Li-Yun Lee

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The purpose of the study was to identify the factors associated with head and neck cancer-related lymphoedema (HNCRL)-related symptoms, body image, and HNCRL-related functional outcomes among patients with resected advanced head and neck cancer. A cross-sectional correlational design was conducted to examine the predictors of HNCRL-related functional outcomes in patients with resected advanced head and neck cancer. Eligible patients were recruited from a single medical center in northern Taiwan. Consecutive patients were approached and recruited from the Radiation Head and Neck Outpatient Department of this medical center. Eligible subjects were assessed for the Symptom Distress Scale–Modified for Head and Neck Cancer (SDS-mhnc), Brief International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) Core Set for Head and Neck Cancer (BCSQ-H&N), Body Image Scale–Modified (BIS-m), The MD Anderson Head and Neck Lymphedema Rating Scale (MDAHNLRS), The Foldi’s Stages of Lymphedema (Foldi’s Scale), Patterson’s Scale, UCLA Shoulder Rating Scale (UCLA SRS), and Karnofsky’s Performance Status Index (KPS). The results showed that the worst problems with body HNCRL functional outcomes. Patients’ HNCRL symptom distress and performance status are robust predictors across over for overall HNCRL functional outcomes, problems with body HNCRL functional outcomes, and activity and social functioning HNCRL functional outcomes. Based on the results of this period research program, we will develop a Cancer Rehabilitation and Lymphedema Care Program (CRLCP) to use in the care of patients with resected advanced head and neck cancer.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, resected, lymphedema, symptom, body image, functional outcome

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1249 Study of Polish and Ukrainian Volunteers Helping War Refugees. Psychological and Motivational Conditions of Coping with Stress of Volunteer Activity

Authors: Agata Chudzicka-Czupała, Nadiya Hapon, Liudmyla Karamushka, Marta żywiołek-Szeja

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Objectives: The study is about the determinants of coping with stress connected with volunteer activity for Russo-Ukrainian war 2022 refugees. We examined the mental health reactions, chosen psychological traits, and motivational functions of volunteers working in Poland and Ukraine in relation to their coping with stress styles. The study was financed with funds from the Foundation for Polish Science in the framework of the FOR UKRAINE Programme. Material and Method: The study was conducted in 2022. The study was a quantitative, questionnaire-based survey. Data was collected through an online survey. The volunteers were asked to assess their propensity to use different styles of coping with stress connected with their activity for Russo-Ukrainian war refugees using The Brief Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced Inventory (Brief-COPE) questionnaire. Depression, anxiety, and stress were measured using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress (DASS)-21 item scale. Chosen psychological traits, psychological capital and hardiness, were assessed by The Psychological Capital Questionnaire and The Norwegian Revised Scale of Hardiness (DRS-15R). Then The Volunteer Function Inventory (VFI) was used. The significance of differences between the variable means of the samples was tested by the Student's t-test. We used multivariate linear regression to identify factors associated with coping with stress styles separately for each national sample. Results: The sample consisted of 720 volunteers helping war refugees (in Poland, 435 people, and 285 in Ukraine). The results of the regression analysis indicate variables that are significant predictors of the propensity to use particular styles of coping with stress (problem-focused style, emotion-focused style and avoidant coping). These include levels of depression and stress, individual psychological characteristics and motivational functions, different for Polish and Ukrainians. Ukrainian volunteers are significantly more likely to use all three coping with stress styles than Polish ones. The results also prove significant differences in the severity of anxiety, stress and depression, the selected psychological traits and motivational functions studied, which led volunteers to participate in activities for war refugees. Conclusions: The results show that depression and stress severity, as well as psychological capital and hardiness, and motivational factors are connected with coping with stress behavior. The results indicate the need for increased attention to the well-being of volunteers acting under stressful conditions. They also prove the necessity of guiding the selection of people for specific types of volu

Keywords: anxiety, coping with stress styles, depression, hardiness, mental health, motivational functions, psychological capital, resilience, stress, war, volunteer, civil society

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1248 The Different Effects of Mindfulness-Based Relapse Prevention Group Therapy on QEEG Measures in Various Severity Substance Use Disorder Involuntary Clients

Authors: Yu-Chi Liao, Nai-Wen Guo, Chun‑Hung Lee, Yung-Chin Lu, Cheng-Hung Ko

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Objective: The incidence of behavioral addictions, especially substance use disorders (SUDs), is gradually be taken seriously with various physical health problems. Mindfulness-based relapse prevention (MBRP) is a treatment option for promoting long-term health behavior change in recent years. MBRP is a structured protocol that integrates formal meditation practices with the cognitive-behavioral approach of relapse prevention treatment by teaching participants not to engage in reappraisal or savoring techniques. However, considering SUDs as a complex brain disease, questionnaires and symptom evaluation are not sufficient to evaluate the effect of MBRP. Neurophysiological biomarkers such as quantitative electroencephalogram (QEEG) may improve accurately represent the curative effects. This study attempted to find out the neurophysiological indicator of MBRP in various severity SUD involuntary clients. Participants and Methods: Thirteen participants (all males) completed 8-week mindfulness-based treatment provided by trained, licensed clinical psychologists. The behavioral data were from the Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS) and Negative Mood Regulation Scale (NMR) before and afterMBRP treatment. The QEEG data were simultaneously recorded with executive attention tasks, called comprehensive nonverbal attention test(CNAT). The two-way repeated-measures (treatment * severity) ANOVA and independent t-test were used for statistical analysis. Results: Thirteen participants regrouped into high substance dependence (HS) and low substance dependence (LS) by SDS cut-off. The HS group showed more SDS total score and lower gamma wave in the Go/No Go task of CNAT at pretest. Both groups showed the main effect that they had a lower frontal theta/beta ratio (TBR) during the simple reaction time task of CNAT. The main effect showed that the delay errors of CNAT were lower after MBRP. There was no other difference in CNAT between groups. However, after MBRP, compared to LS, the HS group have resonant progress in improving SDS and NMR scores. The neurophysiological index, the frontal TBR of the HS during the Go/No Go task of CNATdecreased than that of the LS group. Otherwise, the LS group’s gamma wave was a significant reduction on the Go/No Go task of CNAT. Conclusion: The QEEG data supports the MBRP can restore the prefrontal function of involuntary addicts and lower their errors in executive attention tasks. However, the improvement of MBRPfor the addict with high addiction severity is significantly more than that with low severity, including QEEG’s indicators and negative emotion regulation. Future directions include investigating the reasons for differences in efficacy among different severity of the addiction.

Keywords: mindfulness, involuntary clients, QEEG, emotion regulation

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1247 Cardiotrophin-1 and Leptin in Male Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome

Authors: Isil Cakir, Mustafa Uluhan

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Elevated serum Cardiotrophin-1 (CT-1) and leptin levels are important risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) has been reported to increase the risk of CVDs, too. The aim of this study was to evaluate the concentrations of serum CT-1 and leptin in these patients and whether their possible association with the disease severity. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with OSAS and thirty nonapneic snoring subjects were participated in this study. The mean ages of patients and control groups were 47.40±13.30 and 43.23±10.50 years, respectively (P=0.128). Fasting serum triglyseride, total cholesterol, LDL and HDL cholesterol, also CT-1 and leptin levels were evaluated. A significant difference was found in the serum CT-1 and leptin levels between the patients and the controls:serum median CT-1 levels in patients and control groups, respectively, were 19.47 and 8.23 pg/mL (P < 0.001) and leptin levels were 2.07 and 1.29 ng/mL (P < 0.001). In severe patients group (n=39), serum median CT-1 level was found statistically significantly higher than the median level in mild/moderate patients (n=11) group. Patients CT-1 concentrations were not associated with lipoprotein levels and there was no correlation between patients’ leptin and lipid profile parameters. Two risk factors for CVDs, CT-1 and leptin, have significantly elevated and they were associated with OSAS. Furthermore, CT-1 was associated with the severity of disease. We recommend the use of increased serum CT-1 and leptin concentrations as markers of the presence and severity of OSAS.They can be used as early markers in male OSAS patients without known CVDs.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, cardiotrophin-1, leptin, cardiovascular disease

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1246 Psychosocial Predictors of Brand Loyalty in Pakistani Consumers

Authors: Muhammad Sulman, Tabinda Khurshid, Afsheen Masood

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The current research focused on determining the factors that determine the brand loyalty in consumers. It was hypothesized that there are certain demographical features that lead the consumers to adhere more towards certain brands. Cross-sectional research design was used. The sample for the current research comprised of participants (N=500) from age group 16 to 55 years. The data was collected through self-constructed demographic questionnaire as well as from a self-constructed Brand Loyalty Questionnaire. Brand Loyalty Questionnaire was adapted after taking permission from researchers. A pilot study was conducted to chalk out all the ambiguities of the questionnaire. The final version was administered on 250 participants. The descriptive and inferential analyses were carried on through SPSS version 24.00 to explore the factors that determine Brand Loyalty. The findings revealed that there is a relationship between brand loyalty and brand loyalty demographics and certain factors emerged as significant predictors of brand loyalty in young and middle aged consumers. The research findings carry strong implications for organizational and consumer psychologists in particular and for professionals in marketing and policy making in general.

Keywords: consumers, consumer psychologists, marketing, organizational, policy making

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1245 Internalizing and Externalizing Problems as Predictors of Student Wellbeing

Authors: Nai-Jiin Yang, Tyler Renshaw

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Prior research has suggested that youth internalizing and externalizing problems significantly correlate with student subjective wellbeing (SSW) and achievement problems (SAP). Yet, only a few studies have used data from mental health screener based on the dual-factor model to explore the empirical relationships among internalizing problems, externalizing problems, academic problems, and student wellbeing. This study was conducted through a secondary analysis of previously collected data in school-wide mental health screening activities across secondary schools within a suburban school district in the western United States. The data set included 1880 student responses from a total of two schools. Findings suggest that both internalizing and externalizing problems are substantial predictors of both student wellbeing and academic problems. However, compared to internalizing problems, externalizing problems were a much stronger predictor of academic problems. Moreover, this study did not support academic problems that moderate the relationship between SSW and youth internalizing problems (YIP) and between youth externalizing problems (YEP) and SSW. Lastly, SAP is the strongest predictor of SSW than YIP and YEP.

Keywords: academic problems, externalizing problems, internalizing problems, school mental health, student wellbeing, universal mental health screening

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1244 Correlation between Overweightness and the Extent of Coronary Atherosclerosis among the South Caspian Population

Authors: Maryam Nabati, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Ehsan Soroosh, Hanieh Shiraj, Mahnaneh Gholami, Ali Ghaemian

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Background: Reported effects of obesity on the extent of angiographic coronary artery disease(CAD) have beeninconsistent. The present study aimed to investigate the relationships between the indices of obesity and otheranthropometric markers with the extent of CAD. Methods: This study was conducted on 1008 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography. Bodymass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) wereseparately calculated for each patient. Extent, severity, and complexity of CAD were determined by the Gensini andSYNTAX scores. Results: According to the results, there was a significant inverse correlation between the SYNTAX score with BMI(r = − 0.110; P < 0.001), WC (r = − 0.074; P = 0.018), and WHtR (r = − 0.089; P = 0.005). Furthermore, a significant inversecorrelation was observed between the Gensini score with BMI (r = − 0.090; P = 0.004) and WHtR (r = − 0.065; P =0.041). However, the results of multivariate linear regression analysis did not show any association between theSYNTAX and Gensini scores with the indices of obesity and overweight. On the other hand, the patients with anunhealthy WC had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) (P = 0.004) and hypertension (HTN) (P < 0.001) compared to the patients with healthy values. Coexistence of HTN and DM was more prevalent in subjects with anunhealthy WC and WHR compared to that in those with healthy values (P = 0.002 and P = 0.032, respectively). Conclusion: It seems that the anthropometric indices of obesity are not the predictors of the angiographic severityof CAD. However, they are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular risk factors and higher risk profile.

Keywords: body mass index, BMI, coronary artery disease, waist circumference

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1243 A Real-World Evidence Analysis of Associations between Costs, Quality of Life and Disease-Severity Indicators of Alzheimer’s Disease in Thailand

Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Charungthai Dejthevaporn, Orapitchaya Krairit, Piyameth Dilokthornsakul, Devi Mohan, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

Abstract:

Background: Although an increase in the burden of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is evident worldwide, knowledge of costs and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) associated with AD in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) is still lacking. We, therefore, aimed to collect real-world cost and HR-QoL data, and investigate their associations with multiple disease-severity indicators among AD patients in Thailand. Methods: We recruited AD patients aged ≥ 60 years accompanied by their caregivers at a university-affiliated tertiary hospital. A one-time structured interview was conducted to collect disease-severity indicators, HR-QoL and caregiving information using standardized tools. The hospital’s database was used to retrieve healthcare resource utilization occurred over 6 months preceding the interview date. Costs were annualized and stratified based on cognitive status. Generalized linear models were employed to evaluate determinants of costs and HR-QoL. Results: Among 148 community-dwelling patients, average annual total societal costs of AD care were 8,014 US$ [95% Confidence Interval (95% CI): 7,295 US$ - 8,844 US$] per patient. Total costs of patients with severe stage (9,860 US$; 95% CI: 8,785 US$ - 11,328 US$) were almost twice as high as those of mild stage (5,524 US$; 95% CI: 4,649 US$ - 6,593 US$). The major cost driver was direct medical costs, particularly those incurred by AD prescriptions. Functional status was the strongest determinant for both total costs and patient’s HR-QoL (p-value < 0.001). Conclusions: Our real-world findings suggest the distinct major cost driver which results from expensive AD treatment, emphasizing the demand for country-specific cost evidence. Increases in cognitive and functional status are significantly associated with decreases in total costs of AD care and improvement on patient’s HR-QoL.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, associations, costs, disease-severity indicators, health-related quality of life

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1242 A Dynamic Panel Model to Evaluate the Impact of Debt Relief on Poverty

Authors: Loujaina Abdelwahed

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Debt relief granted to low-and middle-income countries effectively provides additional funds for governments that can be used to increase public investment on poverty-reducing services to alleviate poverty and boost economic growth. However, little is known about the extent to which the poor benefit from the increased public investment. This study aims to assess the impact of debt relief granted through multiple initiatives during the 1990s on poverty reduction. In particular, it assesses the impact on the level, depth and severity of poverty in 76 low-and middle income countries over the period 1990-2011. Debt relief is found to have a significant impact on reducing the level, the depth and the severity of poverty. Analysis of the different types of debt relief reveals that debt service relief reduces poverty, whereas debt principle relief does not have a significant impact.

Keywords: debt relief, developing countries, HIPC, poverty, system GMM estimator

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1241 Efficacy of Cool's and Rhythmic Stabilization Exercises on Scapular up Ward Rotation and Ut/Sa Ratio in Patients with Shoulder Impingement Syndrome

Authors: Mohammed Moustafa, Khaled Ayad, Waleed Reda

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Shoulder impingement syndrome is the most common disorder of the shoulder, resulting in functional loss and disability. Objective: This study was designed to compare between the effects of scapular muscle training versus rhythmic stabilization exercises in treatment of shoulder impingement syndrome. Methods: Thirty patients participated in this study; they were assigned randomly into two experimental groups. The first experimental group (A) consisted of 15 patients with a mean age (21.87±2.72) years; they received graduated rhythmic stabilization exercises and stretching of the posterior capsule. The second experimental group (B) consisted of 15 patients with a mean age (22.27±2.94) years; they received scapular muscle training exercises in addition to stretching of the posterior capsule. Treatment was given three times per week, every other day, for four consecutive weeks. Patients have been evaluated pretreatment and post treatment for shoulder pain severity and functional disability. Results: Both groups showed highly statistical significant reduction in pain severity and functional disability measured post-treatment when compared with their corresponding values in pretreatment assessment. Conclusion: Both of rhythmic stabilization exercises and scapular muscle training are effective interventions to reduce shoulder pain severity and functional disability.

Keywords: impingement syndrome, scapular exercises, rhythmic stabilization exercises, posterior capsule stretch

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1240 Prevalence and Spatial Distribution of Anaemia in Ethiopia using 2011 EDHS

Authors: Bedilu A. Ejigu, Eshetu Wencheko, Kiros Berhane

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Anaemia is a condition in which the haemoglobin concentration falls below an established cut-off value due to a decrease in the number and size of red blood cells. The current study aimed to assess the spatial pattern and identify predictors related to anaemia using the third Ethiopian demographic health survey which was conducted in 2010. To achieve this objective, this study took into account the clustered nature of the data. As a result, multilevel modeling has been used in the statistical analysis. For analysis purpose, only complete cases from 15,909 females, and 13,903 males were considered. Among all subjects who agreed for haemoglobin test, 5.49 %males, and 19.86% females were anaemic. In both binary and ordinal outcome modeling approaches, educational level, age, wealth index, BMI and HIV status were identified to be significant predictors for anaemia prevalence. Furthermore, it was noted that pregnant women were more anaemic than non-pregnant women. As revealed by Moran's I test, significant spatial autocorrelation was noted across clusters. The risk of anaemia was found to vary across different regions, and higher prevalence was observed in Somali and Affar region.

Keywords: anaemia, Moran's I test, multilevel models, spatial pattern

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1239 Results of Operation of Online Medical Care System

Authors: Mahsa Houshdar, Seyed Mehdi Samimi Ardestani , ُSeyed Saeed Sadr

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Introduction: Online Medicare is a method in which parts of a medical process - whether its diagnostics, monitoring or the treatment itself will be done by using online services. This system has been operated in one boy’s high school, one girl’s high school and one high school in deprived aria. Method: At the first step the students registered for using the system. It was not mandatory and not free. They participated in estimating depression scale, anxiety scale and clinical interview by online medical care system. During this estimation, we could find the existence and severity of depression and anxiety in each one of the participants, also we could find the consequent needs of each one, such as supportive therapy in mild depression or anxiety, need to visited by psychologist in moderate cases, need to visited by psychiatrist in moderate-severe cases, need to visited by psychiatrist and psychologist in severe cases and need to perform medical lab examination tests. The lab examination tests were performed on persons specified by the system. The lab examinations were included: serum level of vitamin D, serum level of vitamin B12, serum level of calcium, fasting blood sugar, HbA1c, thyroid function tests and CBC. All of the students were solely treated by vitamins or minerals therapy and/ or treatment of medical problem (such as hypothyroidism). After a few months, we came back to high schools and estimated the existence and severity of depression and anxiety in treated students. With comparing these results, the affectability of the system could be prof. Results: Totally, we operate this project in 1077 participants in 243 of participant, the lab examination test were performed. In girls high schools: the existence and severity of depression significantly deceased (P value= 0.018<0.05 & P value 0.004< 0.05), but results about anxiety was not significant. In boys high schools: the existence and severity of depression significantly decreased (P value= 0.023<0.05 & P value = 0.004< 0.05 & P value= 0.049< 0.05). In boys high schools: the existence and severity of anxiety significantly decreased (P value= 0.041<0.05 & P value = 0.046< 0.05 &) but in one high school results about anxiety was not significant. In high school in deprived area the students did not have any problem paying for participating in the project, but they could not pay for medical lab examination tests. Thus, operation of the system was not possible in deprived area without a sponsor. Conclusion: This online medical system was successful in creating medical and psychiatric profile without attending physician. It was successful in decreasing depression without using antidepressants, but it was partially successful in decreasing anxiety.

Keywords: depression, diabetes, online medicare, vitamin D deficiency

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1238 Psychological Well-Being and Perception of Disease Severity in People with Multiple Sclerosis, Who Underwent a Program of Self-Regulation to Promote Physical Activity

Authors: Luísa Pedro, José Pais-Ribeiro, João Páscoa Pinheiro

Abstract:

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease of the central nervous system that affects more often young adults in the prime of his career and personal development, with no cure and unknown causes. The most common signs and symptoms are fatigue, muscle weakness, changes in sensation, ataxia, changes in balance, gait difficulties, memory difficulties, cognitive impairment and difficulties in problem solving. MS is a relatively common neurological disorder in which various impairments and disabilities impact strongly on function and daily life activities. The aim of this study is to examine the implications of the program of self-regulation in the perception of illness and mental health (psychological well-being domain) in MS patients. MS is a relatively common neurological disorder in which various impairments and disabilities impact strongly on function and daily life activities. The aim of this study is to examine the implications of the program of self-regulation in the perception of illness and mental health (psychological well-being domain) in MS patients. After this, a set of exercises was implemented to be used in daily life activities, according to studies developed with MS patients. We asked the subjects the question “Please classify the severity of your disease?” and used the domain of psychological well-being, the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-38) at the beginning (time A) and end (time B) of the program of self-regulation. We used the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20. A non-parametric statistical hypothesis test (Wilcoxon test) was used for the variable analysis. The intervention followed the recommendations of the Helsinki Declaration. The age range of the subjects was between 20 and 58 years with a mean age of 44 years. 58.3 % were women, 37.5 % were currently married, 67% were retired and the mean level of education was 12.5 years. In the correlation between the severity of the disease perception and psychological well before the self-regulation program, an obtained result (r = 0.26, p <0.05), then the self-regulation program, was (r = 0.37, p <0.01), from a low to moderate correlation. We conclude that the program of self-regulation for physical activity in patients with MS can improve the relationship between the perception of disease severity and psychological well-being.

Keywords: psychological well-being, multiple sclerosis, self-regulation, physical activity

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1237 Outcome of Bowel Management Program in Patient with Spinal Cord Injury

Authors: Roongtiwa Chobchuen, Angkana Srikhan, Pattra Wattanapan

Abstract:

Background: Neurogenic bowel is common condition after spinal cord injury. Most of spinal cord injured patients have motor weakness, mobility impairment which leads to constipation. Moreover, the neural pathway involving bowel function is interrupted. Therefore, the bowel management program should be implemented in nursing care in the earliest time after the onset of the disease to prevent the morbidity and mortality. Objective: To study the outcome of bowel management program of the patients with spinal cord injury who admitted for rehabilitation program. Study design: Descriptive study. Setting: Rehabilitation ward in Srinagarind Hospital. Populations: patients with subacute to chronic spinal cord injury who admitted at rehabilitation ward, Srinagarind hospital, aged over 18 years old. Instrument: The neurogenic bowel dysfunction score (NBDS) was used to determine the severity of neurogenic bowel. Procedure and statistical analysis: All participants were asked to complete the demographic data; age gender, duration of disease, diagnosis. The individual bowel function was assessed using NBDS at admission. The patients and caregivers were trained by nurses about the bowel management program which consisted of diet modification, abdominal massage, digital stimulation, stool evacuation including medication and physical activity. The outcome of the bowel management program was assessed by NBDS at discharge. The chi-square test was used to detect the difference in severity of neurogenic bowel at admission and discharge. Results: Sixteen spinal cord injured patients were enrolled in the study (age 45 ± 17 years old, 69% were male). Most of them (50%) were tetraplegia. On the admission, 12.5%, 12.5%, 43.75% and 31.25% were categorized as very minor (NBDS 0-6), minor (NBDS 7-9), moderate (NBDS 10-13) and severe (NBDS 14+) respectively. The severity of neurogenic bowel was decreased significantly at discharge (56.25%, 18.755%, 18.75% and 6.25% for very minor, minor, moderate and severe group respectively; p < 0.001) compared with NBDS at admission. Conclusions: Implementation of the effective bowel program decrease the severity of the neurogenic bowel in patient with spinal cord injury.

Keywords: neurogenic bowel, NBDS, spinal cord injury, bowel program

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1236 Guillain Barre Syndrome in Children

Authors: A. Erragh, K. Amanzoui, M. Elharit, H. Salem, M. Ababneh, K. Elfakhr, S. Kalouch, A. Chlilek

Abstract:

Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) is the most common form of acute polyradiculoneuritis (PRNA). It is a medical emergency in pediatrics that requires rapid diagnosis and immediate assessment of the severity criteria for the implementation of appropriate treatment. Retrospective, descriptive study in 24 patients under the age of 18 who presented with GBS between September 2017 and July 2021 and were hospitalized in the multipurpose pediatric intensive care unit of the Abderrahim EL Harouchi children's hospital in Casablanca. The average age was 7.91 years, with extremes ranging from 18 months and 14 years and a male predominance of 75%. After a prodromal event, most often infectious (80%) and a free interval of 12 days on average, 2 types of motor disorders begin either hypo or arereflectic flaccid paralysis of the lower limbs (45.8%) or flaccid quadriplegia hypo or arereflectic (54.2%). During GBS, the most formidable complication is respiratory distress, which can occur at any time. In our study, respiratory impairment was observed in 70.8% of cases. In addition, other signs of severity, such as swallowing disorders (75%) and dysautonomic disorders (8.33%), were also observed, which justified care in the intensive care unit for all of our patients. The use of invasive ventilation was necessary in 76.5% of cases, and specific treatments based on immunoglobulins were administered in all our patients. Despite everything, the death rate remains high (25%) and is mainly due to complications related to hospitalization. Guillain Barré syndrome is, therefore, a pediatric emergency that requires rapid diagnosis and immediate assessment of severity criteria for the implementation of appropriate treatment.

Keywords: guillain barre syndrome, emergency, children, medical

Procedia PDF Downloads 46
1235 Using Wearable Device with Neuron Network to Classify Severity of Sleep Disorder

Authors: Ru-Yin Yang, Chi Wu, Cheng-Yu Tsai, Yin-Tzu Lin, Wen-Te Liu

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Background: Sleep breathing disorder (SDB) is a condition demonstrated by recurrent episodes of the airway obstruction leading to intermittent hypoxia and quality fragmentation during sleep time. However, the procedures for SDB severity examination remain complicated and costly. Objective: The objective of this study is to establish a simplified examination method for SDB by the respiratory impendence pattern sensor combining the signal processing and machine learning model. Methodologies: We records heart rate variability by the electrocardiogram and respiratory pattern by impendence. After the polysomnography (PSG) been done with the diagnosis of SDB by the apnea and hypopnea index (AHI), we calculate the episodes with the absence of flow and arousal index (AI) from device record. Subjects were divided into training and testing groups. Neuron network was used to establish a prediction model to classify the severity of the SDB by the AI, episodes, and body profiles. The performance was evaluated by classification in the testing group compared with PSG. Results: In this study, we enrolled 66 subjects (Male/Female: 37/29; Age:49.9±13.2) with the diagnosis of SDB in a sleep center in Taipei city, Taiwan, from 2015 to 2016. The accuracy from the confusion matrix on the test group by NN is 71.94 %. Conclusion: Based on the models, we established a prediction model for SDB by means of the wearable sensor. With more cases incoming and training, this system may be used to rapidly and automatically screen the risk of SDB in the future.

Keywords: sleep breathing disorder, apnea and hypopnea index, body parameters, neuron network

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1234 Causes of Deteriorations of Flexible Pavement, Its Condition Rating and Maintenance

Authors: Pooja Kherudkar, Namdeo Hedaoo

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There are various causes for asphalt pavement distresses which can develop prematurely or with aging in services. These causes are not limited to aging of bitumen binder but include poor quality materials and construction, inadequate mix design, inadequate pavement structure design considering the traffic and lack of preventive maintenance. There is physical evidence available for each type of pavement distress. Distress in asphalt pavements can be categorized in different distress modes like fracture (cracking and spalling), distortion (permanent deformation and slippage), and disintegration (raveling and potholes). This study shows the importance of severity determination of distresses for the selection of appropriate preventive maintenance treatment. Distress analysis of the deteriorated roads was carried out. Four roads of urban flexible pavements from Pune city was selected as a case study. The roads were surveyed to detect the types, to measure the severity and extent of the distresses. Causes of distresses were investigated. The pavement condition rating values of the roads were calculated. These ranges of ratings were as follows; 1 for poor condition road, 1.1 to 2 for fair condition road and 2.1 to 3 for good condition road. Out of the four roads, two roads were found to be in fair condition and the other two were found in good condition. From the various preventive maintenance treatments like crack seal, fog seal, slurry seal, microsurfacing, surface dressing and thin hot mix/cold mix bituminous overlays, the effective maintenance treatments with respect to the surface condition and severity levels of the existing pavement were recommended.

Keywords: distress analysis, pavement condition rating, preventive maintenance treatments, surface distress measurement

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1233 A Study on the Effect of Different Climate Conditions on Time of Balance of Bleeding and Evaporation in Plastic Shrinkage Cracking of Concrete Pavements

Authors: Hasan Ziari, Hassan Fazaeli, Seyed Javad Vaziri Kang Olyaei, Asma Sadat Dabiri

Abstract:

The presence of cracks in concrete pavements is a place for the ingression of corrosive substances, acids, oils, and water into the pavement and reduces its long-term durability and level of service. One of the causes of early cracks in concrete pavements is the plastic shrinkage. This shrinkage occurs due to the formation of negative capillary pressures after the equilibrium of the bleeding and evaporation rates at the pavement surface. These cracks form if the tensile stresses caused by the restrained shrinkage exceed the tensile strength of the concrete. Different climate conditions change the rate of evaporation and thus change the balance time of the bleeding and evaporation, which changes the severity of cracking in concrete. The present study examined the relationship between the balance time of bleeding and evaporation and the area of cracking in the concrete slabs using the standard method ASTM C1579 in 27 different environmental conditions by using continuous video recording and digital image analyzing. The results showed that as the evaporation rate increased and the balance time decreased, the crack severity significantly increased so that by reducing the balance time from the maximum value to its minimum value, the cracking area increased more than four times. It was also observed that the cracking area- balance time curve could be interpreted in three sections. An examination of these three parts showed that the combination of climate conditions has a significant effect on increasing or decreasing these two variables. The criticality of a single factor cannot cause the critical conditions of plastic cracking. By combining two mild environmental factors with a severe climate factor (in terms of surface evaporation rate), a considerable reduction in balance time and a sharp increase in cracking severity can be prevented. The results of this study showed that balance time could be an essential factor in controlling and predicting plastic shrinkage cracking in concrete pavements. It is necessary to control this factor in the case of constructing concrete pavements in different climate conditions.

Keywords: bleeding and cracking severity, concrete pavements, climate conditions, plastic shrinkage

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1232 Defect-Based Urgency Index for Bridge Maintenance Ranking and Prioritization

Authors: Saleh Abu Dabous, Khaled Hamad, Rami Al-Ruzouq

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Bridge condition assessment and rating provide essential information needed for bridge management. This paper reviews bridge inspection and condition rating practices and introduces a defect-based urgency index. The index is estimated at the element-level based on the extent and severity of the different defects typical to the bridge element. The urgency index approach has the following advantages: (1) It facilitates judgment submission, i.e. instead of rating the bridge element with a specific linguistic overall expression (which can be subjective and used differently by different people), the approach is based on assessing the defects; (2) It captures multiple defects that can be present within a deteriorated element; and (3) It reflects how critical the element is through quantifying critical defects and their severity. The approach can be further developed and validated. It is expected to be useful for practical purposes as an early-warning system for critical bridge elements.

Keywords: condition rating, deterioration, inspection, maintenance

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1231 Susceptibility Assessment and Genetic Diversity of Iranian and CIMMYT Wheat Genotypes to Common Root Rot Disease Bipolaris sorokiniana

Authors: Mehdi Nasr Esfahani, Abdal-Rasool Gholamalian, Abdelfattah A. Dababat

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Wheat, Triticum aestivum L. is one of the most important and strategic crops in the human diet. Several diseases threaten this particular crop. Common root rot disease of wheat by a fungal agent, Bipolaris sorokiniana is one of the important diseases, causing considerable losses worldwide. Resistant sources are the only feasible and effective method of control for managing diseases. In this study, the response of 33 domestic and exotic wheat genotypes, including cultivars and promising lines were screened to B. sorokiniana at greenhouse and field conditions, based on five scoring scale indexes of 0 to 100 severity percentage. The screening was continued on resistant wheat genotypes and repeated several times to confirm the greenhouse and field results. Statistical and cluster analysis of data was performed using SAS and SPSS software, respectively. The results showed that, the response of wheat genotypes to the disease in the greenhouse and field conditions was highly significant. The highest rate of common root rot disease infection, B. sorokiniana in the greenhouse and field, was of CVS. Karkheh and Beck Cross-Roshan with 60.83% and 59.16% disease severity respectively, and the lowest one were in cv. Alvand with 18.33%, followed by cv. Baharan with 19.16% disease severity, with a highly significant difference respectively. The remaining wheat genotypes were located in between these two highest and lowest infected groups to B. sorokiniana significantly. There was a high correlation coefficient between the related statistical groups and cluster analysis.

Keywords: wheat, rot, root, crown, fungus, genotype, resistance

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1230 Theory of Planned Behavior Predicts Graduation Intentions of College and University Students with and without Learning Disabilities / Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in Canada and Israel

Authors: Catherine S. Fichten, Tali Heiman, Mary Jorgensen, Mai Nhu Nguyen, Rhonda Amsel, Dorit Olenik-Shemesh

Abstract:

The study examined Canadian and Israeli students' perceptions related to their intention to graduate from their program of studies. Canada and Israel are dissimilar in many ways that affect education, including language and alphabet. In addition, the postsecondary education systems differ. For example, in some parts of Canada (e.g., in Quebec, Canada’s 2nd largest province), students matriculate after 11 years of high school; in Israel, this typically occurs after 12 years. In addition, Quebec students attend two compulsory years of junior college before enrolling in a three-year university Bachelor program; in Israel students enroll in a three-year Bachelor program directly after matriculation. In addition, Israeli students typically enroll in the army shortly after high school graduation; in Canada, this is not the case. What the two countries do have in common is concern about the success of postsecondary students with disabilities. The present study was based on Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB); the model suggests that behavior is influenced by Intention to carry it out. This, in turn, is predicted by the following correlated variables: Perceived Behavioral Control (i.e., ease or difficulty enacting the behavior - in this case graduation), Subjective Norms (i.e., perceived social/peer pressure from individuals important in the student’s life), and Attitude (i.e., positive or negative evaluation of graduation). A questionnaire was developed to test the TPB in previous Canadian studies and administered to 845 Canadian college students (755 nondisabled, 90 with LD/ADHD) who had completed at least one semester of studies) and to 660 Israeli university students enrolled in a Bachelor’s program (537 nondisabled, 123 with LD/ADHD). Because Israeli students were older than Canadian students we covaried age in SPSS-based ANOVA comparisons and included it in regression equations. Because females typically have better academic outcomes than males, gender was included in all analyses. ANOVA results indicate only a significant gender effect for Intention to graduate, with females having higher scores. Four stepwise regressions were conducted, with Intention to graduate as the predicted variable, and Gender and the three TPB predictors as independent variables (separate analyses for Israeli and Canadian samples with and without LD/ADHD). Results show that for samples with LD/ADHD, although Gender and Age were not significant predictors, the TPB predictors were, with all three TPB predictors being significant for the Canadian sample (i.e., Perceived Behavioral Control, Subjective Norms, Attitude, R2=.595), and two of the three (i.e., Perceived Behavioral Control, Subjective Norms) for the Israeli sample (R2=.528). For nondisabled students, the results for both countries show that all three TPB predictors were significant along with Gender: R2=.443 for Canada and R2=.332 for Israel; age was not significant. Our findings show that despite vast differences between our Canadian and Israeli samples, Intention to graduate was related to the three TPB predictors. This suggests that our TPB measure is valid for diverse samples and countries that it can be used as a quick, inexpensive way to predict graduation rates, and that strengthening the three predictor variables may result in higher graduation rates.

Keywords: disability, higher education, students, theory of planned behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
1229 A Matched Case-Control Study to Asses the Association of Chikunguynya Severity among Blood Groups and Other Determinants in Tesseney, Gash Barka Zone, Eritrea

Authors: Ghirmay Teklemicheal, Samsom Mehari, Sara Tesfay

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Objectives: A total of 1074 suspected chikungunya cases were reported in Tesseney Province, Gash Barka region, Eritrea, during an outbreak. This study was aimed to assess the possible association of chikungunya severity among ABO blood groups and other potential determinants. Methods: A sex-matched and age-matched case-control study was conducted during the outbreak. For each case, one control subject had been selected from the mild Chikungunya cases. Along the same line of argument, a second control subject had also been designated through which neighborhood of cases were analyzed, scrutinized, and appeared to the scheme of comparison. Time is always the most sacrosanct element in pursuance of any study. According to the temporal calculation, this study was pursued from October 15, 2018, to November 15, 2018. Coming to the methodological dependability, calculating odds ratios (ORs) and conditional (fixed-effect) logistic regression methods were being applied. As a consequence of this, the data was analyzed and construed on the basis of the aforementioned methodological systems. Results: In this outbreak, 137 severe suspected chikungunya cases and 137 mild chikungunya suspected patients, and 137 controls free of chikungunya from the neighborhood of cases were analyzed. Non-O individuals compared to those with O blood group indicated as significant with a p-value of 0.002. Separate blood group comparison among A and O blood groups reflected as significant with a p-value of 0.002. However, there was no significant difference in the severity of chikungunya among B, AB, and O blood groups with a p-value of 0.113 and 0.708, respectively, and a strong association of chikungunya severity was found with hypertension and diabetes (p-value of < 0.0001); whereas, there was no association between chikungunya severity and asthma with a p-value of 0.695 and also no association with pregnancy (p-value =0.881), ventilator (p-value =0.181), air conditioner (p-value = 0.247), and didn’t use latrine and pit latrine (p-value = 0.318), among individuals using septic and pit latrine (p-value = 0.567) and also among individuals using flush and pit latrine (p-value = 0.194). Conclusions: Non- O blood groups were found to be at risk more than their counterpart O blood group individuals with severe form of chikungunya disease. By the same token, individuals with chronic disease were more prone to severe forms of the disease in comparison with individuals without chronic disease. Prioritization is recommended for patients with chronic diseases and non-O blood group since they are found to be susceptible to severe chikungunya disease. Identification of human cell surface receptor(s) for CHIKV is quite necessary for further understanding of its pathophysiology in humans. Therefore, molecular and functional studies will necessarily be helpful in disclosing the association of blood group antigens and CHIKV infections.

Keywords: Chikungunya, Chikungunya virus, disease outbreaks, case-control studies, Eritrea

Procedia PDF Downloads 127