Search results for: predict

Authors: Monica Racha, Siva Chandrasekaran, Alex Stojcevski

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The engineering programs focus on promoting students' personal and professional development by ensuring that students acquire technical and professional competencies during four-year studies. The traditional engineering laboratory provides an opportunity for students to "practice by doing," and laboratory facilities aid them in obtaining insight and understanding of their discipline. Due to rapid technological advancements and the current COVID-19 outbreak, the traditional labs were transforming into virtual learning environments. Aim: To better understand the limitations of the physical laboratory, this research study aims to use a Machine Learning (ML) algorithm that interfaces with the Augmented Reality HoloLens and predicts the image behavior to classify and detect the electronic components. The automated electronic components error classification and detection automatically detect and classify the position of all components on a breadboard by using the ML algorithm. This research will assist first-year undergraduate engineering students in conducting laboratory practices without any supervision. With the help of HoloLens, and ML algorithm, students will reduce component placement error on a breadboard and increase the efficiency of simple laboratory practices virtually. Method: The images of breadboards, resistors, capacitors, transistors, and other electrical components will be collected using HoloLens 2 and stored in a database. The collected image dataset will then be used for training a machine learning model. The raw images will be cleaned, processed, and labeled to facilitate further analysis of components error classification and detection. For instance, when students conduct laboratory experiments, the HoloLens captures images of students placing different components on a breadboard. The images are forwarded to the server for detection in the background. A hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) algorithm will be used to train the dataset for object recognition and classification. The convolution layer extracts image features, which are then classified using Support Vector Machine (SVM). By adequately labeling the training data and classifying, the model will predict, categorize, and assess students in placing components correctly. As a result, the data acquired through HoloLens includes images of students assembling electronic components. It constantly checks to see if students appropriately position components in the breadboard and connect the components to function. When students misplace any components, the HoloLens predicts the error before the user places the components in the incorrect proportion and fosters students to correct their mistakes. This hybrid Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) algorithm automating electronic component error classification and detection approach eliminates component connection problems and minimizes the risk of component damage. Conclusion: These augmented reality smart glasses powered by machine learning provide a wide range of benefits to supervisors, professionals, and students. It helps customize the learning experience, which is particularly beneficial in large classes with limited time. It determines the accuracy with which machine learning algorithms can forecast whether students are making the correct decisions and completing their laboratory tasks.

Keywords: augmented reality, machine learning, object recognition, virtual laboratories

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Authors: Juan A. Arzate, Funda C. Ertem, M. Nicolas Cruz-Bournazou, Peter Neubauer, Stefan Junne

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— One of the biggest challenges the world faces today is global warming that is caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) coming from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy generation. In order to mitigate climate change, the European Union has committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80–95% below the level of the 1990s by the year 2050. Renewable technologies are vital to diminish energy-related GHG emissions. Since water and biomass are limited resources, the largest contributions to renewable energy (RE) systems will have to come from wind and solar power. Nevertheless, high proportions of fluctuating RE will present a number of challenges, especially regarding the need to balance the variable energy demand with the weather dependent fluctuation of energy supply. Therefore, biogas plants in this content would play an important role, since they are easily adaptable. Feedstock availability varies locally or seasonally; however there is a lack of knowledge in how biogas plants should be operated in a stable manner by local feedstock. This problem may be prevented through suitable control strategies. Such strategies require the development of convenient mathematical models, which fairly describe the main processes. Modelling allows us to predict the system behavior of biogas plants when different feedstocks are used with different loading rates. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a technique for analyzing several sides from evolution of a product till its disposal in an environmental point of view. It is highly recommend to use as a decision making tool. In order to achieve suitable strategies, the combination of a flexible energy generation provided by biogas plants, a secure production process and the maximization of the environmental benefits can be obtained by the combination of process modelling and LCA approaches. For this reason, this study focuses on the biogas plant which flexibly generates required energy from the co-digestion of maize, grass and cattle manure, while emitting the lowest amount of GHG´s. To achieve this goal AMOCO model was combined with LCA. The program was structured in Matlab to simulate any biogas process based on the AMOCO model and combined with the equations necessary to obtain climate change, acidification and eutrophication potentials of the whole production system based on ReCiPe midpoint v.1.06 methodology. Developed simulation was optimized based on real data from operating biogas plants and existing literature research. The results prove that AMOCO model can successfully imitate the system behavior of biogas plants and the necessary time required for the process to adapt in order to generate demanded energy from available feedstock. Combination with LCA approach provided opportunity to keep the resulting emissions from operation at the lowest possible level. This would allow for a prediction of the process, when the feedstock utilization supports the establishment of closed material circles within a smart bio-production grid – under the constraint of minimal drawbacks for the environment and maximal sustainability.

Keywords: AMOCO model, GHG emissions, life cycle assessment, modelling

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Authors: Yagmur Soylu, Emir Ozeren, Erol Esen, Digdem M. Siyez, Ozlem Belkis, Ezgi Burc, Gülce Demirgurz

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The aim of the study is to determine the predictive power of personal growth initiative, socio-demographic variables (such as sex, grade, and working condition) on career adaptability and optimism of bachelor students in Dokuz Eylul University in Turkey. According to career construction theory, career adaptability is viewed as a psychosocial construct, which refers to an individual’s resources for dealing with current and expected tasks, transitions and traumas in their occupational roles. Career optimism is defined as positive results for future career development of individuals in the expectation that it will achieve or to put the emphasis on the positive aspects of the event and feel comfortable about the career planning process. Personal Growth Initiative (PGI) is defined as being proactive about one’s personal development. Additionally, personal growth is defined as the active and intentional engagement in the process of personal. A study conducted on college students revealed that individuals with high self-development orientation make more effort to discover the requirements of the profession and workspaces than individuals with low levels of personal development orientation. University life is a period that social relations and the importance of academic activities are increased, the students make efforts to progress through their career paths and it is also an environment that offers opportunities to students for their self-realization. For these reasons, personal growth initiative is potentially an important variable which has a key role for an individual during the transition phase from university to the working life. Based on the review of the literature, it is expected that individual’s personal growth initiative, sex, grade, and working condition would significantly predict one’s career adaptability. In the relevant literature, it can be seen that there are relatively few studies available on the career adaptability and optimism of university students. Most of the existing studies have been carried out with limited respondents. In this study, the authors aim to conduct a comprehensive research with a large representative sample of bachelor students in Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey. By now, personal growth initiative and career development constructs have been predominantly discussed in western contexts where individualistic tendencies are likely to be seen. Thus, the examination of the same relationship within the context of Turkey where collectivistic cultural characteristics can be more observed is expected to offer valuable insights and provide an important contribution to the literature. The participants in this study were comprised of 1500 undergraduate students being included from thirteen faculties in Dokuz Eylul University. Stratified and random sampling methods were adopted for the selection of the participants. The Personal Growth Initiative Scale-II and Career Futures Inventory were used as the major measurement tools. In data analysis stage, several statistical analysis concerning the regression analysis, one-way ANOVA and t-test will be conducted to reveal the relationships of the constructs under investigation. At the end of this project, we will be able to determine the level of career adaptability and optimism of university students at varying degrees so that a fertile ground is likely to be created to carry out several intervention techniques to make a contribution to an emergence of a healthier and more productive youth generation in psycho-social sense.

Keywords: career optimism, career adaptability, personal growth initiative, university students

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Authors: Miguel A. Figueroa, José A. Lara-Ramos, Miguel A. Mueses

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Pharmaceutical residues are a section of emerging contaminants of anthropogenic origin that are present in a myriad of waters with which human beings interact daily and are starting to affect the ecosystem directly. Conventional waste-water treatment systems are not capable of degrading these pharmaceutical effluents because their designs cannot handle the intermediate products and biological effects occurring during its treatment. That is why it is necessary to hybridize conventional waste-water systems with non-conventional processes. In the specific case of an ozonation process, its efficiency highly depends on a perfect dispersion of ozone, long times of interaction of the gas-liquid phases and the size of the ozone bubbles formed through-out the reaction system. In order to increase the efficiency of these parameters, the use of a modified flotation cell has been proposed recently as a reactive system, which is used at an industrial level to facilitate the suspension of particles and spreading gas bubbles through the reactor volume at a high rate. The objective of the present work is the development of a mathematical model that can closely predict the kinetic rates of reactions taking place in the flotation cell at an experimental scale by means of identifying proper reaction mechanisms that take into account the modified chemical and hydrodynamic factors in the FeO-catalyzed Ozonation of Diclofenac aqueous solutions in a flotation cell. The methodology is comprised of three steps: an experimental phase where a modified flotation cell reactor is used to analyze the effects of ozone concentration and loading catalyst over the degradation of Diclofenac aqueous solutions. The performance is evaluated through an index of utilized ozone, which relates the amount of ozone supplied to the system per milligram of degraded pollutant. Next, a theoretical phase where the reaction mechanisms taking place during the experiments must be identified and proposed that details the multiple direct and indirect reactions the system goes through. Finally, a kinetic model is obtained that can mathematically represent the reaction mechanisms with adjustable parameters that can be fitted to the experimental results and give the model a proper physical meaning. The expected results are a robust reaction rate law that can simulate the improved results of Diclofenac mineralization on water using the modified flotation cell reactor. By means of this methodology, the following results were obtained: A robust reaction pathways mechanism showcasing the intermediates, free-radicals and products of the reaction, Optimal values of reaction rate constants that simulated Hatta numbers lower than 3 for the system modeled, degradation percentages of 100%, TOC (Total organic carbon) removal percentage of 69.9 only requiring an optimal value of FeO catalyst of 0.3 g/L. These results showed that a flotation cell could be used as a reactor in ozonation, catalytic ozonation and photocatalytic ozonation processes, since it produces high reaction rate constants and reduces mass transfer limitations (Ha > 3) by producing microbubbles and maintaining a good catalyst distribution.

Keywords: advanced oxidation technologies, iron oxide, emergent contaminants, AOTS intensification

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Authors: Naoum Mylonas, Eugenia Petridou

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Objectives: The objectives of this research are firstly, to develop an integrated model of predicting factors to new ventures performance, taking into account certain issues and specificities related to creative industry and female entrepreneurship based on the prior research; secondly, to determine the appropriate measures of venture performance in a creative industry context, drawing upon previous surveys; thirdly, to illustrate the importance of entrepreneurial orientation, networking ties, environment dynamism and access to financial capital on new ventures performance. Prior Work: An extant review of the creative industry literature highlights the special nature of entrepreneurship in this field. Entrepreneurs in creative industry share certain specific characteristics and intensions, such as to produce something aesthetic, to enrich their talents and their creativity, and to combine their entrepreneurial with their artistic orientation. Thus, assessing venture performance and success in creative industry entails an examination of how creative people or artists conceptualize success. Moreover, female entrepreneurs manifest more positive attitudes towards sectors primarily based on creativity, rather than innovation in which males outbalance. As creative industry entrepreneurship based mainly on the creative personality of the creator / artist, a high interest is accrued to examine female entrepreneurship in the creative industry. Hypotheses development: H1a: Female entrepreneurs who are more entrepreneurially-oriented show a higher financial performance. H1b: Female entrepreneurs who are more artistically-oriented show a higher creative performance. H2: Female entrepreneurs who have personality that is more creative perform better. H3: Female entrepreneurs who participate in or belong to networks perform better. H4: Female entrepreneurs who have been consulted by a mentor perform better. Η5a: Female entrepreneurs who are motivated more by pull-factors perform better. H5b: Female entrepreneurs who are motivated more by push-factors perform worse. Approach: A mixed method triangulation design has been adopted for the collection and analysis of data. The data are collected through a structured questionnaire for the quantitative part and through semi-structured interviews for the qualitative part as well. The sample is 293 Greek female entrepreneurs in the creative industry. Main findings: All research hypotheses are accepted. The majority of creative industry entrepreneurs evaluate themselves in creative performance terms rather than financial ones. The individuals who are closely related to traditional arts sectors have no EO but also evaluate themselves highly in terms of venture performance. Creative personality of creators is appeared as the most important predictor of venture performance. Pull factors in accordance with our hypothesis lead to higher levels of performance compared to push factors. Networking and mentoring are viewed as very important, particularly now during the turbulent economic environment in Greece. Implications-Value: Our research provides an integrated model with several moderating variables to predict ventures performance in the creative industry, taking also into account the complicated nature of arts and the way artists and creators define success. At the end, the findings may be used for the appropriate design of educational programs in creative industry entrepreneurship. This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund – ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: Heracleitus II. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.

Keywords: venture performance, female entrepreneurship, creative industry, networks

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Authors: Rosimeire Araújo Silva, Philip Martin Fearnside

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Extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and the human population in the region. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years, and projections of climate change predict greater frequency and intensity of these events. Understanding the links between these extreme events and different patterns of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is essential, both to improve the modeling of climate change and its consequences and to support efforts of adaptation in the region. The relationship between sea temperatures and events in the Amazon is much more complex than is usually assumed in climatic models. Warming and cooling of different parts of the oceans, as well as the interaction between simultaneous temperature changes in different parts of each ocean and between the two oceans, have specific consequences for the Amazon, with effects on precipitation that vary in different parts of the region. Simplistic generalities, such as the association between El Niño events and droughts in the Amazon, do not capture this complexity. We investigated the variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the period 1950-2022, using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (FOE), spectral analysis coherence and wavelet phase. The two were identified as the main modes of variability, which explain about 53,9% and 13,3%, respectively, of the total variance of the data. The spectral and coherence analysis and wavelets phase showed that the first selected mode represents the warming in the central part of the Pacific Ocean (the “Central El Niño”), while the second mode represents warming in the eastern part of the Pacific (the “Eastern El Niño The effects of the 1982-1983 and 1976-1977 El Niño events in the Amazon, although both events were characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, the impact on rainfall in the Amazon was distinct. In the rainy season, from December to March, the sub-basins of the Japurá, Jutaí, Jatapu, Tapajós, Trombetas and Xingu rivers were the regions that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central (1982-1983), while the sub-basins of the Javari, Purus, Negro and Madeira rivers had the most pronounced reductions in the year of Eastern El Niño (1976-1977). In the transition to the dry season, in April, the greatest reductions were associated with the Eastern El Niño year for the majority of the study region, with the exception only of the sub-basins of the Madeira, Trombetas and Xingu rivers, which had their associated reductions to Central El Niño. In the dry season from July to September, the sub-basins of the Japurá Jutaí Jatapu Javari Trombetas and Madeira rivers were the rivers that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central, while the sub-basins of the Tapajós Purus Negro and Xingu rivers had the most pronounced reductions. In the Eastern El Niño year this season. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Central (Eastern) El Niño controlled the reductions in soil moisture in the dry (rainy) season for all sub-basins shown in this study. Extreme drought events associated with these meteorological phenomena can lead to a significant increase in the occurrence of forest fires. These fires have a devastating impact on Amazonian vegetation, resulting in the irreparable loss of biodiversity and the release of large amounts of carbon stored in the forest, contributing to the increase in the greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Keywords: sea surface temperature, variability, climate, Amazon

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Authors: Chooi Fong Lee

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Background: Maternal psychological well-being has been investigated from various aspects, such as social support, employment status. However, a perspective from self-discrepancy theory has not been employed. Moreover, most were focused on young mothers. Less is understanding the middle-aged mother’s psychological well-being. Objective: To examine the influence of maternal self-discrepancy between actual and ideal self on maternal role achievement, state anxiety, trait anxiety, and subjective well-being among Japanese middle-aged mothers across their employment status. Method: A pilot study was conducted with 20 mother participants (aged 40-55, 9 regular-employed, 8 non-regular-employed, and 3 homemaker mothers) to assess the viability of survey questionnaires (Maternal Role Achievement Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Subjective Well-being Scale, and a self-report). Participants were randomly selected voluntarily from the college students’ mothers. Participants accessed the survey via a designated URL. The self-report questionnaire prompted participants to list up to 3 ideal selves they aspired to be and rate the extent to which their actual selves deviated from their ideal selves on a 7-point scale (1= not at all; 4 = medium; 7 = extremely). The findings confirmed the validity of the survey questionnaires, indicating their appropriateness for use in subsequent research. Self-discrepancy scores were calculated by subtracting participants’ degree ratings from a 7-point scale, summing them up, and then dividing the total by 3. Setting: We ensured participants were randomly selected from the research firm to mitigate bias. The self-report questionnaire was adapted from a validated instrument and underwent rigorous modification and testing in the pilot study. The final sample consisted of 241 participants, 97 regular-employed, 87 non-regular employed, and 57 homemaker mothers. Result: The reliability coefficient for the discrepancy score is α=.75. The findings indicate that regular-employed mothers tend to exhibit lower self-discrepancy scores compared to non-regular employed and homemaker mothers. This discrepancy negatively impacts maternal role, state anxiety, and subjective well-being while positively affecting trait anxiety. Trait anxiety arises when one feels they did not meet their ideal self, as evidenced by higher levels in homemaker mothers, who experience lower state anxiety. Conversely, regular-employed mothers exhibit higher state anxiety but lower trait anxiety, suggesting satisfaction in their professional pursuits despite balancing work and family responsibilities. Full-time maternal roles contribute to lower state anxiety but higher trait anxiety among homemaker mothers due to a lack of personal identity achievement. Non-regular employed mothers show similarities to homemaker mothers. In self-reports, regular-employed mothers highlight support and devotion to their children’s development, while non-regular-employed mothers seek life fulfillment through part-time work alongside child-rearing duties. Homemaker mothers emphasize qualities like sociability, and communication skills, potentially influencing their self-discrepancy scores. Furthermore, the hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that the discrepancy scores significantly predict subjective well-being. Conclusion: There may be the need for broader generalizability beyond our sample of Japanese mothers; however, the findings offer valuable insights into the impact of maternal self-discrepancy on psychological well-being among middle-aged mothers across different employment statuses. Understanding these dynamics becomes crucial as contemporary women increasingly pursue higher education and depart from traditional motherhood norms.

Keywords: maternal employment, maternal role, self-discrepancy, state-trait anxiety, subjective well-being

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Authors: Lionel Trovalet, Lisa Liu, Dimitri Bigot, Nadia Hammami, Jean-Pierre Habas, Bruno Malet-Damour

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The MCP-iBAT1 project is carried out to study the behavior of Phase Change Materials (PCM) integrated in building envelopes in a tropical environment. Through the phase transitions (melting and freezing) of the material, thermal energy can be absorbed or released. This process enables the regulation of indoor temperatures and the improvement of thermal comfort for the occupants. Most of the commercially available PCMs are more suitable to temperate climates than to tropical climates. The case of Reunion Island is noteworthy as there are multiple micro-climates. This leads to our key question: developing one or multiple bio-based PCMs that cover the thermal needs of the different locations of the island. The present paper focuses on the numerical approach to select the PCM properties relevant to tropical areas. Numerical simulations have been carried out with two softwares: EnergyPlusTM and Isolab. The latter has been developed in the laboratory, with the implicit Finite Difference Method, in order to evaluate different physical models. Both are Thermal Dynamic Simulation (TDS) softwares that predict the building’s thermal behavior with one-dimensional heat transfers. The parameters used in this study are the construction’s characteristics (dimensions and materials) and the environment’s description (meteorological data and building surroundings). The building is modeled in accordance with the experimental setup. It is divided into two rooms, cells A and B, with same dimensions. Cell A is the reference, while in cell B, a layer of commercial PCM (Thermo Confort of MCI Technologies) has been applied to the inner surface of the North wall. Sensors are installed in each room to retrieve temperatures, heat flows, and humidity rates. The collected data are used for the comparison with the numerical results. Our strategy is to implement two similar buildings at different altitudes (Saint-Pierre: 70m and Le Tampon: 520m) to measure different temperature ranges. Therefore, we are able to collect data for various seasons during a condensed time period. The following methodology is used to validate the numerical models: calibration of the thermal and PCM models in EnergyPlusTM and Isolab based on experimental measures, then numerical testing with a sensitivity analysis of the parameters to reach the targeted indoor temperatures. The calibration relies on the past ten months’ measures (from September 2020 to June 2021), with a focus on one-week study on November (beginning of summer) when the effect of PCM on inner surface temperatures is more visible. A first simulation with the PCM model of EnergyPlus gave results approaching the measurements with a mean error of 5%. The studied property in this paper is the melting temperature of the PCM. By determining the representative temperature of winter, summer and inter-seasons with past annual’s weather data, it is possible to build a numerical model of multi-layered PCM. Hence, the combined properties of the materials will provide an optimal scenario for the application on PCM in tropical areas. Future works will focus on the development of bio-based PCMs with the selected properties followed by experimental and numerical validation of the materials. 1Materiaux ´ a Changement de Phase, une innovation pour le B ` ati Tropical

Keywords: energyplus, multi-layer of PCM, phase changing materials, tropical area

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Authors: Zhiwu Zheng, Prakhar Kumar, Sigurd Wagner, Naveen Verma, James C. Sturm

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Soft robots have drawn great interest recently due to a rich range of possible shapes and motions they can take on to address new applications, compared to traditional rigid robots. Large-area electronics (LAE) provides a unique platform for creating soft robots by leveraging thin-film technology to enable the integration of a large number of actuators, sensors, and control circuits on flexible sheets. However, the rich shapes and motions possible, especially when interacting with complex environments, pose significant challenges to forming well-generalized and robust models necessary for robot design and control. In this work, we describe an analytical model for predicting the shape and locomotion of a flexible (steel-foil-based) piezoelectric-actuated 2D robot based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory. It is nominally (unpowered) lying flat on the ground, and when powered, its shape is controlled by an array of piezoelectric thin-film actuators. Key features of the models are its ability to incorporate the significant effects of gravity on the shape and to precisely predict the spatial distribution of friction against the contacting surfaces, necessary for determining inchworm-type motion. We verified the model by developing a distributed discrete element representation of a continuous piezoelectric actuator and by comparing its analytical predictions to discrete-element robot simulations using PyBullet. Without gravity, predicting the shape of a sheet with a linear array of piezoelectric actuators at arbitrary voltages is straightforward. However, gravity significantly distorts the shape of the sheet, causing some segments to flatten against the ground. Our work includes the following contributions: (i) A self-consistent approach was developed to exactly determine which parts of the soft robot are lifted off the ground, and the exact shape of these sections, for an arbitrary array of piezoelectric voltages and configurations. (ii) Inchworm-type motion relies on controlling the relative friction with the ground surface in different sections of the robot. By adding torque-balance to our model and analyzing shear forces, the model can then determine the exact spatial distribution of the vertical force that the ground is exerting on the soft robot. Through this, the spatial distribution of friction forces between ground and robot can be determined. (iii) By combining this spatial friction distribution with the shape of the soft robot, in the function of time as piezoelectric actuator voltages are changed, the inchworm-type locomotion of the robot can be determined. As a practical example, we calculated the performance of a 5-actuator system on a 50-µm thick steel foil. Piezoelectric properties of commercially available thin-film piezoelectric actuators were assumed. The model predicted inchworm motion of up to 200 µm per step. For independent verification, we also modelled the system using PyBullet, a discrete-element robot simulator. To model a continuous thin-film piezoelectric actuator, we broke each actuator into multiple segments, each of which consisted of two rigid arms with appropriate mass connected with a 'motor' whose torque was set by the applied actuator voltage. Excellent agreement between our analytical model and the discrete-element simulator was shown for both for the full deformation shape and motion of the robot.

Keywords: analytical modeling, piezoelectric actuators, soft robot locomotion, thin-film technology

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Authors: Shahzada Gulfam

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Islamism was considered as a new phenomenon in Muslim World to revolt against static Religious Traditionalists and the Imperialists. Islamist political parties viewed the establishment of an Islamic state within the limits of Sharia’h as their destination. The Islamists movements like Ikhwan-ul Muslimun, Jamaat-i-Islami etc. did appear with revolutionary agenda but were contained by military forces and the secular modernists of Muslim World. The Muslim rulers, historically could not respect the democratic and moral norms and equally emerged as dictators in democracies, military rule as well as in monarchies. The Arab Spring did not follow the Islamists agenda but gathered the common masses against the corrupt rulers to have a just democratic political system. The Islamic State and Sharia’h were not their immediate targets but the achievement of moral norms in Muslim societies and eradication of dictatorial rule were the basic aims. This phenomenon is named as post-Islamism. The political struggle of PAT (Pakistan Awami Tehreek) and the PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf) has been following the footsteps of Arab Spring and can be noted as the extension of Arab Spring in Muslim World. The results of this struggle would define the fate of Post-Islamism in Pakistan. Has Jamaat-i-Islami got the potential to reform its agenda accordingly? This paper intends to study the Jamaat’s struggle and tries to predict Jamaat’s role in post-Islamism scenario. There is a clear distinction between the people of religion and the people following the popular materialistic westernized value system. This division is also evident in political parties. Pakistan has been ruled mostly by the secular parties and rulers. The inability to establish Islamic system by replacing the imperial system has created militancy and revolt which requires the establishment of a sound model Islamic based system in the country. The political parties of Pakistan could not device a modernize agenda, equally acceptable in modernized world and addressing the prevailing issues and also having the indigenous religious and cultural roots. The inability of Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan to transform its agenda accordingly to serve the post-Islamism has made it irrelevant in Pakistan’s politics. Once Jamaat leaves behind its hard position as an Islamist party and accepts the post-Islamism as beginning to create its idealized state and society, it can pursue its agenda gradually. The phenomenon of post-Islamism does not make Islamists irrelevant but invites them to listen to the priorities of masses rather than insisting on the agenda of their respective ideologues to be followed for all times. The ruling Muslim democrats and military dictators of Pakistan have been following unfair means to sustain their political power which gave rise to space for the new political parties to emerge and organize agitation successfully in Pakistani Politics. Jamaat-i-Islami could not fill that space to be an agent of Post-Islamism and could not break their chains which had been tying them to the prevailing failed democracy of Pakistan. Post-Islamists are the addressers of the rulers corruption and are struggling for reforms in system. Jamaat due to its ideological compulsions could not transform its agenda accordingly. The new scenario indicates that the Post-Islamism which emerged in Arab World can be taken as first step to establish democracy and justice in state and society and then the establishment of Islamic law and the establishment of an Islamic state should have been the next targets. This gradual agenda would have delivered public support to the Jamaat which deserved that but PTI & PAT have cashed this opportunity in Pakistani politics by strengthening their respective vote banks.

Keywords: arab spring, islamic state, islamic political parties, muslim world, post-islamism

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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Authors: Ririh Rahma Ratinghayu, Jayu Pramudya, Nur Aini Masruroh, Shi-Woei Lin

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This research studies pricing strategy in cooperative setting of hotel duopoly selling perishable product under fixed capacity constraint by using the perspective of managers. In hotel revenue management, competitor’s average room rate and occupancy rate should be taken into manager’s consideration in determining pricing strategy to generate optimum revenue. This information is not provided by business intelligence or available in competitor’s website. Thus, Information Sharing (IS) among players might result in improved performance of pricing strategy. IS is widely adopted in the logistics industry, but IS within hospitality industry has not been well-studied. This research put IS as one of cooperative game schemes, besides Mutual Price Setting (MPS) scheme. In off-peak season, hotel manager arranges pricing strategy to offer promotion package and various kinds of discounts up to 60% of full-price to attract customers. Competitor selling homogenous product will react the same, then triggers a price war. Price war which generates lower revenue may be avoided by creating collaboration in pricing strategy to optimize payoff for both players. In MPS cooperative game, players collaborate to set a room rate applied for both players. Cooperative game may avoid unfavorable players’ payoff caused by price war. Researches on horizontal cooperative game in logistics show better performance and payoff for the players, however, horizontal cooperative game in hotel revenue management has not been demonstrated. This paper aims to develop hotel revenue management models under duopoly cooperative schemes (IS & MPS), which are compared to models under non-cooperative scheme too. Each scheme has five models, Capacity Allocation Model; Demand Model; Revenue Model; Optimal Price Model; and Equilibrium Price Model. Capacity Allocation Model and Demand Model employs self-hotel and competitor’s full and discount price as predictors under non-linear relation. Optimal price is obtained by assuming revenue maximization motive. Equilibrium price is observed by interacting self-hotel’s and competitor’s optimal price under reaction equation. Equilibrium is analyzed using game theory approach. The sequence applies for three schemes. MPS Scheme differently aims to optimize total players’ payoff. The case study in which theoretical models are applied observes two hotels offering homogenous product in Indonesia during a year. The Capacity Allocation, Demand, and Revenue Models are built using multiple regression and statistically tested for validation. Case study data confirms that price behaves within demand model in a non-linear manner. IS Models can represent the actual demand and revenue data better than Non-IS Models. Furthermore, IS enables hotels to earn significantly higher revenue. Thus, duopoly hotel players in general, might have reasonable incentives to share information horizontally. During off-peak season, MPS Models are able to predict the optimal equal price for both hotels. However, Nash equilibrium may not always exist depending on actual payoff of adhering or betraying mutual agreement. To optimize performance, horizontal cooperative game may be chosen over non-cooperative game. Mathematical models can be used to detect collusion among business players. Empirical testing can be used as policy input for market regulator in preventing unethical business practices potentially harming society welfare.

Keywords: horizontal cooperative game theory, hotel revenue management, information sharing, mutual price setting

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Authors: Marina Passero, Tianhua Zhai, Zuyi (Jacky) Huang

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Alzheimer’s disease has become a major public health issue, as indicated by the increasing populations of Americans living with Alzheimer’s disease. After decades of extensive research in Alzheimer’s disease, only seven drugs have been approved by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to treat Alzheimer’s disease. Five of these drugs were designed to treat the dementia symptoms, and only two drugs (i.e., Aducanumab and Lecanemab) target the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, especially the accumulation of amyloid-b plaques. However, controversial comments were raised for the accelerated approvals of either Aducanumab or Lecanemab, especially with concerns on safety and side effects of these two drugs. There is still an urgent need for further drug discovery to target the biological processes involved in the progression of Alzheimer’s disease. Excessive cholesterol has been found to accumulate in the brain of those with Alzheimer’s disease. Cholesterol can be synthesized in both the blood and the brain, but the majority of biosynthesis in the adult brain takes place in astrocytes and is then transported to the neurons via ApoE. The blood brain barrier separates cholesterol metabolism in the brain from the rest of the body. Various proteins contribute to the metabolism of cholesterol in the brain, which offer potential targets for Alzheimer’s treatment. In the astrocytes, SREBP cleavage-activating protein (SCAP) binds to Sterol Regulatory Element-binding Protein 2 (SREBP2) in order to transport the complex from the endoplasmic reticulum to the Golgi apparatus. Cholesterol is secreted out of the astrocytes by ATP-Binding Cassette A1 (ABCA1) transporter. Lipoprotein receptors such as triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (TREM2) internalize cholesterol into the microglia, while lipoprotein receptors such as Low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) internalize cholesterol into the neuron. Cytochrome P450 Family 46 Subfamily A Member 1 (CYP46A1) converts excess cholesterol to 24S-hydroxycholesterol (24S-OHC). Cholesterol has been approved for its direct effect on the production of amyloid-beta and tau proteins. The addition of cholesterol to the brain promotes the activity of beta-site amyloid precursor protein cleaving enzyme 1 (BACE1), secretase, and amyloid precursor protein (APP), which all aid in amyloid-beta production. The reduction of cholesterol esters in the brain have been found to reduce phosphorylated tau levels in mice. In this work, a computational pipeline was developed to identify the protein targets involved in cholesterol regulation in brain and further to identify chemical compounds as the inhibitors of a selected protein target. Since extensive evidence shows the strong correlation between brain cholesterol regulation and Alzheimer’s disease, a detailed literature review on genes or pathways related to the brain cholesterol synthesis and regulation was first conducted in this work. An interaction network was then built for those genes so that the top gene targets were identified. The involvement of these genes in Alzheimer’s disease progression was discussed, which was followed by the investigation of existing clinical trials for those targets. A ligand-protein docking program was finally developed to screen 1.5 million chemical compounds for the selected protein target. A machine learning program was developed to evaluate and predict the binding interaction between chemical compounds and the protein target. The results from this work pave the way for further drug discovery to regulate brain cholesterol to combat Alzheimer’s disease.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, drug discovery, ligand-protein docking, gene-network analysis, cholesterol regulation

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Authors: Sanaz Alizadeh, Yves Comeau, Arshath Abdul Rahim, Sunhasis Ghoshal

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The application of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in personal care products, various household and industrial products has resulted in an inevitable environmental exposure of such engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Ag ENPs, released via household and industrial wastes, reach water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs), yet the fate and transport of ENPs in WRRFs and their potential risk in the biological wastewater processes are poorly understood. Accordingly, our main objective was to elucidate the impact of long-term continuous exposure to AgNPs on biological activity of aerobic wastewater biofilm. The fate, transport and toxicity of 10 μg.L-1and 100 μg.L-1 PVP-stabilized AgNPs (50 nm) were evaluated in an attached growth biological treatment process, using lab-scale moving bed bioreactors (MBBRs). Two MBBR systems for organic matter removal were fed with a synthetic influent and operated at a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 180 min and 60% volumetric filling ratio of Anox-K5 carriers with specific surface area of 800 m2/m3. Both reactors were operated for 85 days after reaching steady state conditions to develop a mature biofilm. The impact of AgNPs on the biological performance of the MBBRs was characterized over a period of 64 days in terms of the filtered biodegradable COD (SCOD) removal efficiency, the biofilm viability and key enzymatic activities (α-glucosidase and protease). The AgNPs were quantitatively characterized using single-particle inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (spICP-MS), determining simultaneously the particle size distribution, particle concentration and dissolved silver content in influent, bioreactor and effluent samples. The generation of reactive oxygen species and the oxidative stress were assessed as the proposed toxicity mechanism of AgNPs. Results indicated that a low concentration of AgNPs (10 μg.L-1) did not significantly affect the SCOD removal efficiency whereas a significant reduction in treatment efficiency (37%) was observed at 100 μg.L-1AgNPs. Neither the viability nor the enzymatic activities of biofilm were affected at 10 μg.L-1AgNPs but a higher concentration of AgNPs induced cell membrane integrity damage resulting in 31% loss of viability and reduced α-glucosidase and protease enzymatic activities by 31% and 29%, respectively, over the 64-day exposure period. The elevated intercellular ROS in biofilm at a higher AgNPs concentration over time was consistent with a reduced biological biofilm performance, confirming the occurrence of a nanoparticle-induced oxidative stress in the heterotrophic biofilm. The spICP-MS analysis demonstrated a decrease in the nanoparticles concentration over the first 25 days, indicating a significant partitioning of AgNPs into the biofilm matrix in both reactors. The concentration of nanoparticles increased in effluent of both reactors after 25 days, however, indicating a decreased retention capacity of AgNPs in biofilm. The observed significant detachment of biofilm also contributed to a higher release of nanoparticles due to cell-wall destabilizing properties of AgNPs as an antimicrobial agent. The removal efficiency of PVP-AgNPs and the biofilm biological responses were a function of nanoparticle concentration and exposure time. This study contributes to a better understanding of the fate and behavior of AgNPs in biological wastewater processes, providing key information that can be used to predict the environmental risks of ENPs in aquatic ecosystems.

Keywords: biofilm, silver nanoparticle, single particle ICP-MS, toxicity, wastewater

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Authors: Alejandra Martin-Dominguez, Javier Canto-Rios, Velitchko Tzatchkov

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Electrocoagulation is a water treatment technology that consists of generating coagulant species in situ by electrolytic oxidation of sacrificial anode materials triggered by electric current. It removes suspended solids, heavy metals, emulsified oils, bacteria, colloidal solids and particles, soluble inorganic pollutants and other contaminants from water, offering an alternative to the use of metal salts or polymers and polyelectrolyte addition for breaking stable emulsions and suspensions. The method essentially consists of passing the water being treated through pairs of consumable conductive metal plates in parallel, which act as monopolar electrodes, commonly known as ‘sacrificial electrodes’. Physicochemical, electrochemical and hydraulic processes are involved in the efficiency of this type of treatment. While the physicochemical and electrochemical aspects of the technology have been extensively studied, little is known about the influence of the hydraulics. However, the hydraulic process is fundamental for the reactions that take place at the electrode boundary layers and for the coagulant mixing. Electrocoagulation reactors can be open (with free water surface) and closed (pressurized). Independently of the type of rector, hydraulic head loss is an important factor for its design. The present work focuses on the study of the total hydraulic head loss and flow velocity and pressure distribution in electrocoagulation reactors with single or multiple concentric annular cross sections. An analysis of the head loss produced by hydraulic wall shear friction and accessories (minor head losses) is presented, and compared to the head loss measured on a semi-pilot scale laboratory model for different flow rates through the reactor. The tests included laminar, transitional and turbulent flow. The observed head loss was compared also to the head loss predicted by several known conceptual theoretical and empirical equations, specific for flow in concentric annular pipes. Four single concentric annular cross section and one multiple concentric annular cross section reactor configuration were studied. The theoretical head loss resulted higher than the observed in the laboratory model in some of the tests, and lower in others of them, depending also on the assumed value for the wall roughness. Most of the theoretical models assume that the fluid elements in all annular sections have the same velocity, and that flow is steady, uniform and one-dimensional, with the same pressure and velocity profiles in all reactor sections. To check the validity of such assumptions, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the concentric annular pipe reactor was implemented using the ANSYS Fluent software, demonstrating that pressure and flow velocity distribution inside the reactor actually is not uniform. Based on the analysis, the equations that predict better the head loss in single and multiple annular sections were obtained. Other factors that may impact the head loss, such as the generation of coagulants and gases during the electrochemical reaction, the accumulation of hydroxides inside the reactor, and the change of the electrode material with time, are also discussed. The results can be used as tools for design and scale-up of electrocoagulation reactors, to be integrated into new or existing water treatment plants.

Keywords: electrocoagulation reactors, hydraulic head loss, concentric annular pipes, computational fluid dynamics model

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Authors: Chandu Rathnayake, Isuri Anuradha

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Early detection and accurate diagnosis of lung diseases play a crucial role in improving patient prognosis. However, conventional diagnostic methods heavily rely on subjective symptom assessments and medical imaging, often causing delays in diagnosis and treatment. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel lung disease prediction system that integrates patient symptoms and X-ray images to provide a comprehensive and reliable diagnosis.In this project, develop a mobile application specifically designed for detecting lung diseases. Our application leverages both patient symptoms and X-ray images to facilitate diagnosis. By combining these two sources of information, our application delivers a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of the patient's condition, minimizing the risk of misdiagnosis. Our primary aim is to create a user-friendly and accessible tool, particularly important given the current circumstances where many patients face limitations in visiting healthcare facilities. To achieve this, we employ several state-of-the-art algorithms. Firstly, the Decision Tree algorithm is utilized for efficient symptom-based classification. It analyzes patient symptoms and creates a tree-like model to predict the presence of specific lung diseases. Secondly, we employ the Random Forest algorithm, which enhances predictive power by aggregating multiple decision trees. This ensemble technique improves the accuracy and robustness of the diagnosis. Furthermore, we incorporate a deep learning model using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with the RestNet50 pre-trained model. CNNs are well-suited for image analysis and feature extraction. By training CNN on a large dataset of X-ray images, it learns to identify patterns and features indicative of lung diseases. The RestNet50 architecture, known for its excellent performance in image recognition tasks, enhances the efficiency and accuracy of our deep learning model. By combining the outputs of the decision tree-based algorithms and the deep learning model, our mobile application generates a comprehensive lung disease prediction. The application provides users with an intuitive interface to input their symptoms and upload X-ray images for analysis. The prediction generated by the system offers valuable insights into the likelihood of various lung diseases, enabling individuals to take appropriate actions and seek timely medical attention. Our proposed mobile application has significant potential to address the rising prevalence of lung diseases, particularly among young individuals with smoking addictions. By providing a quick and user-friendly approach to assessing lung health, our application empowers individuals to monitor their well-being conveniently. This solution also offers immense value in the context of limited access to healthcare facilities, enabling timely detection and intervention. In conclusion, our research presents a comprehensive lung disease prediction system that combines patient symptoms and X-ray images using advanced algorithms. By developing a mobile application, we provide an accessible tool for individuals to assess their lung health conveniently. This solution has the potential to make a significant impact on the early detection and management of lung diseases, benefiting both patients and healthcare providers.

Keywords: CNN, random forest, decision tree, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Thomas Rockstuhl, Kok Yee Ng, Guido Gianasso, Soon Ang

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Two meta-analyses show that intercultural experience is not related to intercultural adaptation or performance in international assignments. These findings have prompted calls for a deeper grounding of research on international experience in the phenomenon of global work. Two issues, in particular, may limit current understanding of the relationship between international experience and global work performance. First, intercultural experience is too broad a construct that may not sufficiently capture the essence of global work, which to a large part involves sensemaking and managing intercultural conflicts. Second, the psychological mechanisms through which intercultural experience affects performance remains under-explored, resulting in a poor understanding of how experience is translated into learning and performance outcomes. Drawing on recognition primed decision-making (RPD) research, the current study advances a cognitive processing model to highlight the importance of intercultural conflict familiarity. Compared to intercultural experience, intercultural conflict familiarity is a more targeted construct that captures individuals’ previous exposure to dealing with intercultural conflicts. Drawing on RPD theory, we argue that individuals’ intercultural conflict familiarity enhances their ability to make accurate judgments and generate effective responses when intercultural conflicts arise. In turn, the ability to make accurate situation judgements and effective situation responses is an important predictor of global work performance. A relocation program within a multinational enterprise provided the context to test these hypotheses using a time-lagged, multi-source field study. Participants were 165 employees (46% female; with an average of 5 years of global work experience) from 42 countries who relocated from country to regional offices as part a global restructuring program. Within the first two weeks of transfer to the regional office, employees completed measures of their familiarity with intercultural conflicts, cultural intelligence, cognitive ability, and demographic information. They also completed an intercultural situational judgment test (iSJT) to assess their situation judgment and situation response. The iSJT comprised four validated multimedia vignettes of challenging intercultural work conflicts and prompted employees to provide protocols of their situation judgment and situation response. Two research assistants, trained in intercultural management but blind to the study hypotheses, coded the quality of employee’s situation judgment and situation response. Three months later, supervisors rated employees’ global work performance. Results using multilevel modeling (vignettes nested within employees) support the hypotheses that greater familiarity with intercultural conflicts is positively associated with better situation judgment, and that situation judgment mediates the effect of intercultural familiarity on situation response quality. Also, aggregated situation judgment and situation response quality both predicted supervisor-rated global work performance. Theoretically, our findings highlight the important but under-explored role of familiarity with intercultural conflicts; a shift in attention from the general nature of international experience assessed in terms of number and length of overseas assignments. Also, our cognitive approach premised on RPD theory offers a new theoretical lens to understand the psychological mechanisms through which intercultural conflict familiarity affects global work performance. Third, and importantly, our study contributes to the global talent identification literature by demonstrating that the cognitive processes engaged in resolving intercultural conflicts predict actual performance in the global workplace.

Keywords: intercultural conflict familiarity, job performance, judgment and decision making, situational judgment test

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Hamda Ajmal, Karen Young, Ruth Melia, John Bogue, Mary O'Sullivan, Jim Duggan, Hannah Wood

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The Covid-19 pandemic led to a range of public health mitigation strategies in order to suppress the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The drastic changes in everyday life due to lockdowns had the potential for a significant negative impact on public mental health, and a key public health goal is to now assess the evidence from available Irish datasets to provide useful insights on this issue. Text-50808 is an online text-based mental health support service, established in Ireland in 2020, and can provide a measure of revealed distress and mental health concerns across the population. The aim of this study is to explore statistical associations between public mental health in Ireland and the Covid-19 pandemic. Uniquely, this study combines two measures of emotional wellbeing in Ireland: (1) weekly text volume at Text-50808, and (2) emotional wellbeing indicators reported by respondents of the Amárach public opinion survey, carried out on behalf of the Department of Health, Ireland. For this analysis, a multivariate graphical exploratory data analysis (EDA) was performed on the Text-50808 dataset dated from 15th June 2020 to 30th June 2021. This was followed by time-series analysis of key mental health indicators including: (1) the percentage of daily/weekly texts at Text-50808 that mention Covid-19 related issues; (2) the weekly percentage of people experiencing anxiety, boredom, enjoyment, happiness, worry, fear and stress in Amárach survey; and Covid-19 related factors: (3) daily new Covid-19 case numbers; (4) daily stringency index capturing the effect of government non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in Ireland. The cross-correlation function was applied to measure the relationship between the different time series. EDA of the Text-50808 dataset reveals significant peaks in the volume of texts on days prior to level 3 lockdown and level 5 lockdown in October 2020, and full level 5 lockdown in December 2020. A significantly high positive correlation was observed between the percentage of texts at Text-50808 that reported Covid-19 related issues and the percentage of respondents experiencing anxiety, worry and boredom (at a lag of 1 week) in Amárach survey data. There is a significant negative correlation between percentage of texts with Covid-19 related issues and percentage of respondents experiencing happiness in Amárach survey. Daily percentage of texts at Text-50808 that reported Covid-19 related issues to have a weak positive correlation with daily new Covid-19 cases in Ireland at a lag of 10 days and with daily stringency index of NPIs in Ireland at a lag of 2 days. The sudden peaks in text volume at Text-50808 immediately prior to new restrictions in Ireland indicate an association between a rise in mental health concerns following the announcement of new restrictions. There is also a high correlation between emotional wellbeing variables in the Amárach dataset and the number of weekly texts at Text-50808, and this confirms that Text-50808 reflects overall public sentiment. This analysis confirms the benefits of the texting service as a community surveillance tool for mental health in the population. This initial EDA will be extended to use multivariate modeling to predict the effect of additional Covid-19 related factors on public mental health in Ireland.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, data analysis, digital health, mental health, public health, digital health

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Authors: Vipin Bhandari, Anupama Singh, Kopal Gupta

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Solid state fermentation, an eminent bioconversion technique for converting many biological substrates into a value-added product, has proven its role in the biotransformation of crops by nutritionally enriching them. Hence, an effort was made for nutritional enhancement of underutilized crops viz. barnyard millet, amaranthus and horse gram based composite flour using SSF. The grains were given pre-treatments before fermentation and these pre-treatments proved quite effective in diminishing the level of antinutrients in grains and in improving their nutritional characteristics. The present study deals with the enhancement of nutritional characteristics of underutilized crops viz. barnyard millet, amaranthus and horsegram based composite flour using solid state fermentation (SSF) as the principle bioconversion technique to convert the composite flour substrate into a nutritionally enriched value added product. Response surface methodology was used to design the experiments. The variables selected for the fermentation experiments were substrate particle size, substrate blend ratio, fermentation time, fermentation temperature and moisture content having three levels of each. Seventeen designed experiments were conducted randomly to find the effect of these variables on microbial count, reducing sugar, pH, total sugar, phytic acid and water absorption index. The data from all experiments were analyzed using Design Expert 8.0.6 and the response functions were developed using multiple regression analysis and second order models were fitted for each response. Results revealed that pretreatments proved quite handful in diminishing the level of antinutrients and thus enhancing the nutritional value of the grains appreciably, for instance, there was about 23% reduction in phytic acid levels after decortication of barnyard millet. The carbohydrate content of the decorticated barnyard millet increased to 81.5% from initial value of 65.2%. Similarly popping and puffing of horsegram and amaranthus respectively greatly reduced the trypsin inhibitor activity. Puffing of amaranthus also reduced the tannin content appreciably. Bacillus subtilis was used as the inoculating specie since it is known to produce phytases in solid state fermentation systems. These phytases remarkably reduce the phytic acid content which acts as a major antinutritional factor in food grains. Results of solid state fermentation experiments revealed that phytic acid levels reduced appreciably when fermentation was allowed to continue for 72 hours at a temperature of 35°C. Particle size and substrate blend ratio also affected the responses positively. All the parameters viz. substrate particle size, substrate blend ratio, fermentation time, fermentation temperature and moisture content affected the responses namely microbial count, reducing sugar, pH, total sugar, phytic acid and water absorption index but the effect of fermentation time was found to be most significant on all the responses. Statistical analysis resulted in the optimum conditions (particle size 355µ, substrate blend ratio 50:20:30 of barnyard millet, amaranthus and horsegram respectively, fermentation time 68 hrs, fermentation temperature 35°C and moisture content 47%) for maximum reduction in phytic acid. The model F- value was found to be highly significant at 1% level of significance in case of all the responses. Hence, second order model could be fitted to predict all the dependent parameters. The effect of fermentation time was found to be most significant as compared to other variables.

Keywords: composite flour, solid state fermentation, underutilized crops, cereals, fermentation technology, food processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Dongping Fang, Lian Duan, Xiaojing Yuan, Mike Xu, Allyn Klunder, Kevin Tan, Suiting Cao, Yeqing Ji

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Accurate prediction of a medical condition with straight clinical evidence is a long-sought topic in the medical management and health insurance field. Although great progress has been made with machine learning algorithms, the medical community is still, to a certain degree, suspicious about the model's accuracy and interpretability. This paper presents an innovative hierarchical attention deep learning model to achieve good prediction and clear interpretability that can be easily understood by medical professionals. This deep learning model uses a hierarchical attention structure that matches naturally with the medical history data structure and reflects the member’s encounter (date of service) sequence. The model attention structure consists of 3 levels: (1) attention on the medical code types (diagnosis codes, procedure codes, lab test results, and prescription drugs), (2) attention on the sequential medical encounters within a type, (3) attention on the medical codes within an encounter and type. This model is applied to predict the occurrence of stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD3), using three years’ medical history of Medicare Advantage (MA) members from a top health insurance company. The model takes members’ medical events, both claims and electronic medical record (EMR) data, as input, makes a prediction of CKD3 and calculates the contribution from individual events to the predicted outcome. The model outcome can be easily explained with the clinical evidence identified by the model algorithm. Here are examples: Member A had 36 medical encounters in the past three years: multiple office visits, lab tests and medications. The model predicts member A has a high risk of CKD3 with the following well-contributed clinical events - multiple high ‘Creatinine in Serum or Plasma’ tests and multiple low kidneys functioning ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ tests. Among the abnormal lab tests, more recent results contributed more to the prediction. The model also indicates regular office visits, no abnormal findings of medical examinations, and taking proper medications decreased the CKD3 risk. Member B had 104 medical encounters in the past 3 years and was predicted to have a low risk of CKD3, because the model didn’t identify diagnoses, procedures, or medications related to kidney disease, and many lab test results, including ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ were within the normal range. The model accurately predicts members A and B and provides interpretable clinical evidence that is validated by clinicians. Without extra effort, the interpretation is generated directly from the model and presented together with the occurrence date. Our model uses the medical data in its most raw format without any further data aggregation, transformation, or mapping. This greatly simplifies the data preparation process, mitigates the chance for error and eliminates post-modeling work needed for traditional model explanation. To our knowledge, this is the first paper on an interpretable deep-learning model using a 3-level attention structure, sourcing both EMR and claim data, including all 4 types of medical data, on the entire Medicare population of a big insurance company, and more importantly, directly generating model interpretation to support user decision. In the future, we plan to enrich the model input by adding patients’ demographics and information from free-texted physician notes.

Keywords: deep learning, interpretability, attention, big data, medical conditions

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Authors: Andreea Campu, Ilinica Muresan, Simona Cainap, Simion Astilean, Monica Focsan

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Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the most severe cardiovascular disease, which has threatened human lives for decades, thus a continuous interest is directed towards the detection of cardiac biomarkers such as cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in order to predict risk and, implicitly, fulfill the early diagnosis requirements in AMI settings. Microfluidics is a major technology involved in the development of efficient sensing devices with real-time fast responses and on-site applicability. Microfluidic devices have gathered a lot of attention recently due to their advantageous features such as high sensitivity and specificity, miniaturization and portability, ease-of-use, low-cost, facile fabrication, and reduced sample manipulation. The integration of gold nanoparticles into the structure of microfluidic sensors has led to the development of highly effective detection systems, considering the unique properties of the metallic nanostructures, specifically the Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance (LSPR), which makes them highly sensitive to their microenvironment. In this scientific context, herein, we propose the implementation of a novel detection device, which successfully combines the efficiency of gold bipyramids (AuBPs) as signal transducers and thermal generators with the sample-driven advantages of the microfluidic channels into a miniaturized, portable, low-cost, specific, and sensitive test for the dual LSPR-thermographic cTnI detection. Specifically, AuBPs with longitudinal LSPR response at 830 nm were chemically synthesized using the seed-mediated growth approach and characterized in terms of optical and morphological properties. Further, the colloidal AuBPs were deposited onto pre-treated silanized glass substrates thus, a uniform nanoparticle coverage of the substrate was obtained and confirmed by extinction measurements showing a 43 nm blue-shift of the LSPR response as a consequence of the refractive index change. The as-obtained plasmonic substrate was then integrated into a microfluidic “Y”-shaped polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) channel, fabricated using a Laser Cutter system. Both plasmonic and microfluidic elements were plasma treated in order to achieve a permanent bond. The as-developed microfluidic plasmonic chip was further coupled to an automated syringe pump system. The proposed biosensing protocol implicates the successive injection inside the microfluidic channel as follows: p-aminothiophenol and glutaraldehyde, to achieve a covalent bond between the metallic surface and cTnI antibody, anti-cTnI, as a recognition element, and target cTnI biomarker. The successful functionalization and capture of cTnI was monitored by LSPR detection thus, after each step, a red-shift of the optical response was recorded. Furthermore, as an innovative detection technique, thermal determinations were made after each injection by exposing the microfluidic plasmonic chip to 785 nm laser excitation, considering that the AuBPs exhibit high light-to-heat conversion performances. By the analysis of the thermographic images, thermal curves were obtained, showing a decrease in the thermal efficiency after the anti-cTnI-cTnI reaction was realized. Thus, we developed a microfluidic plasmonic chip able to operate as both LSPR and thermal sensor for the detection of the cardiac troponin I biomarker, leading thus to the progress of diagnostic devices.

Keywords: gold nanobipyramids, microfluidic device, localized surface plasmon resonance detection, thermographic detection

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Authors: Mian Huang, Chi Ma, Junyu Lin, William Lu

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Introduction: Bone health attracts more attention recently and an intelligent question and answer (QA) chatbot for osteoporosis is helpful for science popularization. With Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) technology developing, we build an osteoporosis corpus dataset and then fine-tune LLaMA, a famous open-source GPT foundation large language model(LLM), on our self-constructed osteoporosis corpus. Evaluated by clinical orthopedic experts, our fine-tuned model outperforms vanilla LLaMA on osteoporosis QA task in Chinese. Three-dimensional quantitative computed tomography (QCT) measured bone mineral density (BMD) is considered as more accurate than DXA for BMD measurement in recent years. We develop an automatic Phantom-less QCT(PL-QCT) that is more efficient for BMD measurement since no need of an external phantom for calibration. Combined with LLM on osteoporosis, our PL-QCT provides efficient and accurate BMD measurement for our chatbot users. Material and Methods: We build an osteoporosis corpus containing about 30,000 Chinese literatures whose titles are related to osteoporosis. The whole process is done automatically, including crawling literatures in .pdf format, localizing text/figure/table region by layout segmentation algorithm and recognizing text by OCR algorithm. We train our model by continuous pre-training with Low-rank Adaptation (LoRA, rank=10) technology to adapt LLaMA-7B model to osteoporosis domain, whose basic principle is to mask the next word in the text and make the model predict that word. The loss function is defined as cross-entropy between the predicted and ground-truth word. Experiment is implemented on single NVIDIA A800 GPU for 15 days. Our automatic PL-QCT BMD measurement adopt AI-associated region-of-interest (ROI) generation algorithm for localizing vertebrae-parallel cylinder in cancellous bone. Due to no phantom for BMD calibration, we calculate ROI BMD by CT-BMD of personal muscle and fat. Results & Discussion: Clinical orthopaedic experts are invited to design 5 osteoporosis questions in Chinese, evaluating performance of vanilla LLaMA and our fine-tuned model. Our model outperforms LLaMA on over 80% of these questions, understanding ‘Expert Consensus on Osteoporosis’, ‘QCT for osteoporosis diagnosis’ and ‘Effect of age on osteoporosis’. Detailed results are shown in appendix. Future work may be done by training a larger LLM on the whole orthopaedics with more high-quality domain data, or a multi-modal GPT combining and understanding X-ray and medical text for orthopaedic computer-aided-diagnosis. However, GPT model gives unexpected outputs sometimes, such as repetitive text or seemingly normal but wrong answer (called ‘hallucination’). Even though GPT give correct answers, it cannot be considered as valid clinical diagnoses instead of clinical doctors. The PL-QCT BMD system provided by Bone’s QCT(Bone’s Technology(Shenzhen) Limited) achieves 0.1448mg/cm2(spine) and 0.0002 mg/cm2(hip) mean absolute error(MAE) and linear correlation coefficient R2=0.9970(spine) and R2=0.9991(hip)(compared to QCT-Pro(Mindways)) on 155 patients in three-center clinical trial in Guangzhou, China. Conclusion: This study builds a Chinese osteoporosis corpus and develops a fine-tuned and domain-adapted LLM as well as a PL-QCT BMD measurement system. Our fine-tuned GPT model shows better capability than LLaMA model on most testing questions on osteoporosis. Combined with our PL-QCT BMD system, we are looking forward to providing science popularization and early morning screening for potential osteoporotic patients.

Keywords: GPT, phantom-less QCT, large language model, osteoporosis

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Authors: Inna Kornienko, Svetlana Guryeva, Natalia Danilova, Elena Petersen

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Drug toxicity often goes undetected until clinical trials, the most expensive and dangerous phase of drug development. Both human cell culture and animal studies have limitations that cannot be overcome by improvements in drug testing protocols. Tissue engineering is an emerging alternative approach to creating models of human malignant tumors for experimental oncology, personalized medicine, and drug discovery studies. This new generation of bioengineered tumors provides an opportunity to control and explore the role of every component of the model system including cell populations, supportive scaffolds, and signaling molecules. An area that could greatly benefit from these models is cancer research. Recent advances in tissue engineering demonstrated that decellularized tissue is an excellent scaffold for tissue engineering. Decellularization of donor organs such as heart, liver, and lung can provide an acellular, naturally occurring three-dimensional biologic scaffold material that can then be seeded with selected cell populations. Preliminary studies in animal models have provided encouraging results for the proof of concept. Decellularized Organs preserve organ microenvironment, which is critical for cancer metastasis. Utilizing 3D tumor models results greater proximity of cell culture morphological characteristics in a model to its in vivo counterpart, allows more accurate simulation of the processes within a functioning tumor and its pathogenesis. 3D models allow study of migration processes and cell proliferation with higher reliability as well. Moreover, cancer cells in a 3D model bear closer resemblance to living conditions in terms of gene expression, cell surface receptor expression, and signaling. 2D cell monolayers do not provide the geometrical and mechanical cues of tissues in vivo and are, therefore, not suitable to accurately predict the responses of living organisms. 3D models can provide several levels of complexity from simple monocultures of cancer cell lines in liquid environment comprised of oxygen and nutrient gradients and cell-cell interaction to more advanced models, which include co-culturing with other cell types, such as endothelial and immune cells. Following this reasoning, spheroids cultivated from one or multiple patient-derived cell lines can be utilized to seed the matrix rather than monolayer cells. This approach furthers the progress towards personalized medicine. As an initial step to create a new ex vivo tissue engineered model of a cancer tumor, optimized protocols have been designed to obtain organ-specific acellular matrices and evaluate their potential as tissue engineered scaffolds for cultures of normal and tumor cells. Decellularized biomatrix was prepared from animals’ kidneys, urethra, lungs, heart, and liver by two decellularization methods: perfusion in a bioreactor system and immersion-agitation on an orbital shaker with the use of various detergents (SDS, Triton X-100) in different concentrations and freezing. Acellular scaffolds and tissue engineered constructs have been characterized and compared using morphological methods. Models using decellularized matrix have certain advantages, such as maintaining native extracellular matrix properties and biomimetic microenvironment for cancer cells; compatibility with multiple cell types for cell culture and drug screening; utilization to culture patient-derived cells in vitro to evaluate different anticancer therapeutics for developing personalized medicines.

Keywords: 3D models, decellularization, drug discovery, drug toxicity, scaffolds, spheroids, tissue engineering

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Authors: Denis Jordan, Daniel Golkowski, Mathias Lukas, Katharina Merz, Caroline Mlynarcik, Max Maurer, Valentin Riedl, Stefan Foerster, Eberhard F. Kochs, Andreas Bender, Ruediger Ilg

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Introduction: So far, clinical assessments that rely on behavioral responses to differentiate coma states or even predict outcome in coma patients are unreliable, e.g. because of some patients’ motor disabilities. The present study was aimed to provide prognosis in coma patients using markers from electroencephalogram (EEG), blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET). Unsuperwised principal component analysis (PCA) was used for multimodal integration of markers. Methods: Approved by the local ethics committee of the Technical University of Munich (Germany) 20 patients (aged 18-89) with severe brain damage were acquired through intensive care units at the Klinikum rechts der Isar in Munich and at the Therapiezentrum Burgau (Germany). At the day of EEG/fMRI/PET measurement (date I) patients (<3.5 month in coma) were grouped in the minimal conscious state (MCS) or vegetative state (VS) on the basis of their clinical presentation (coma recovery scale-revised, CRS-R). Follow-up assessment (date II) was also based on CRS-R in a period of 8 to 24 month after date I. At date I, 63 channel EEG (Brain Products, Gilching, Germany) was recorded outside the scanner, and subsequently simultaneous FDG-PET/fMRI was acquired on an integrated Siemens Biograph mMR 3T scanner (Siemens Healthineers, Erlangen Germany). Power spectral densities, permutation entropy (PE) and symbolic transfer entropy (STE) were calculated in/between frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital EEG channels. PE and STE are based on symbolic time series analysis and were already introduced as robust markers separating wakefulness from unconsciousness in EEG during general anesthesia. While PE quantifies the regularity structure of the neighboring order of signal values (a surrogate of cortical information processing), STE reflects information transfer between two signals (a surrogate of directed connectivity in cortical networks). fMRI was carried out using SPM12 (Wellcome Trust Center for Neuroimaging, University of London, UK). Functional images were realigned, segmented, normalized and smoothed. PET was acquired for 45 minutes in list-mode. For absolute quantification of brain’s glucose consumption rate in FDG-PET, kinetic modelling was performed with Patlak’s plot method. BOLD signal intensity in fMRI and glucose uptake in PET was calculated in 8 distinct cortical areas. PCA was performed over all markers from EEG/fMRI/PET. Prognosis (persistent VS and deceased patients vs. recovery to MCS/awake from date I to date II) was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) including bootstrap confidence intervals (CI, *: p<0.05). Results: Prognosis was reliably indicated by the first component of PCA (AUC=0.99*, CI=0.92-1.00) showing a higher AUC when compared to the best single markers (EEG: AUC<0.96*, fMRI: AUC<0.86*, PET: AUC<0.60). CRS-R did not show prediction (AUC=0.51, CI=0.29-0.78). Conclusion: In a multimodal analysis of EEG/fMRI/PET in coma patients, PCA lead to a reliable prognosis. The impact of this result is evident, as clinical estimates of prognosis are inapt at time and could be supported by quantitative biomarkers from EEG, fMRI and PET. Due to the small sample size, further investigations are required, in particular allowing superwised learning instead of the basic approach of unsuperwised PCA.

Keywords: coma states and prognosis, electroencephalogram, entropy, functional magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning, positron emission tomography, principal component analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: M. M. Hassani, S. Ammann, F. K. Wittel, P. Niemz, H. J. Herrmann

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Application of engineered wood, especially in the form of glued-laminated timbers has increased significantly. Recent progress in plywood made of high strength and high stiffness hardwoods, like European beech, gives designers in general more freedom by increased dimensional stability and load-bearing capacity. However, the strong hygric dependence of basically all mechanical properties renders many innovative ideas futile. The tendency of hardwood for higher moisture sorption and swelling coefficients lead to significant residual stresses in glued-laminated configurations, cross-laminated patterns in particular. These stress fields cause initiation and evolution of cracks in the bond-lines resulting in: interfacial de-bonding, loss of structural integrity, and reduction of load-carrying capacity. Subsequently, delamination of glued-laminated timbers made of hardwood elements can be considered as the dominant failure mechanism in such composite elements. In addition, long-term creep and mechano-sorption under changing environmental conditions lead to loss of stiffness and can amplify delamination growth over the lifetime of a structure even after decades. In this study we investigate the delamination process of adhesively bonded hardwood (European beech) elements subjected to changing climatic conditions. To gain further insight into the long-term performance of adhesively bonded elements during the design phase of new products, the development and verification of an authentic moisture-dependent constitutive model for various species is of great significance. Since up to now, a comprehensive moisture-dependent rheological model comprising all possibly emerging deformation mechanisms was missing, a 3D orthotropic elasto-plastic, visco-elastic, mechano-sorptive material model for wood, with all material constants being defined as a function of moisture content, was developed. Apart from the solid wood adherends, adhesive layer also plays a crucial role in the generation and distribution of the interfacial stresses. Adhesive substance can be treated as a continuum layer constructed from finite elements, represented as a homogeneous and isotropic material. To obtain a realistic assessment on the mechanical performance of the adhesive layer and a detailed look at the interfacial stress distributions, a generic constitutive model including all potentially activated deformation modes, namely elastic, plastic, and visco-elastic creep was developed. We focused our studies on the three most common adhesive systems for structural timber engineering: one-component polyurethane adhesive (PUR), melamine-urea-formaldehyde (MUF), and phenol-resorcinol-formaldehyde (PRF). The corresponding numerical integration approaches, with additive decomposition of the total strain are implemented within the ABAQUS FEM environment by means of user subroutine UMAT. To predict the true stress state, we perform a history dependent sequential moisture-stress analysis using the developed material models for both wood substrate and adhesive layer. Prediction of the delamination process is founded on the fracture mechanical properties of the adhesive bond-line, measured under different levels of moisture content and application of the cohesive interface elements. Finally, we compare the numerical predictions with the experimental observations of de-bonding in glued-laminated samples under changing environmental conditions.

Keywords: engineered wood, adhesive, material model, FEM analysis, fracture mechanics, delamination

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Nanine Fouche

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The Cape Flats is a low-lying sand-covered expanse of approximately 460 square kilometres, situated to the southeast of the central business district of Cape Town in the Western Cape of South Africa. The aeolian sands masking this area are often loose and compressible in the upper 1m to 1.5m of the surface, and there is a general exceedance of the maximum allowable settlement in these sands. The settlement of shallow foundations on Cape Flats sands is commonly predicted using the results of in-situ tests such as the SPT or DPSH due to the difficulty of retrieving undisturbed samples for laboratory testing. Varying degrees of accuracy and reliability are associated with these methods. More recently, shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles obtained from seismic testing, such as continuous surface wave tests (CSW), are being used for settlement prediction. Such predictions have the advantage of considering non-linear stress-strain behaviour of soil and the degradation of stiffness with increasing strain. CSW tests are rarely executed in the Cape Flats, whereas SPT’s are commonly performed. For this reason, and to facilitate better settlement predictions in Cape Flats sand, equations representing shear wave velocity (Vs) as a function of SPT blow count (N60) and vertical effective stress (v’) were generated by statistical regression of site investigation data. To reveal the most appropriate method of overburden correction, analyses were performed with a separate overburden term (Pa/σ’v) as well as using stress corrected shear wave velocity and SPT blow counts (correcting Vs. and N60 to Vs1and (N1)60respectively). Shear wave velocity profiles and SPT blow count data from three sites masked by Cape Flats sands were utilised to generate 80 Vs-SPT N data pairs for analysis. Investigated terrains included sites in the suburbs of Athlone, Muizenburg, and Atlantis, all underlain by windblown deposits comprising fine and medium sand with varying fines contents. Elastic settlement analysis was also undertaken for the Cape Flats sands, using a non-linear stepwise method based on small-strain stiffness estimates, which was obtained from the best Vs-N60 model and compared to settlement estimates using the general elastic solution with stiffness profiles determined using Stroud’s (1989) and Webb’s (1969) SPT N60-E transformation models. Stroud’s method considers strain level indirectly whereasWebb’smethod does not take account of the variation in elastic modulus with strain. The expression of Vs. in terms of N60 and Pa/σv’ derived from the Atlantis data set revealed the best fit with R2 = 0.83 and a standard error of 83.5m/s. Less accurate Vs-SPT N relations associated with the combined data set is presumably the result of inversion routines used in the analysis of the CSW results showcasing significant variation in relative density and stiffness with depth. The regression analyses revealed that the inclusion of a separate overburden term in the regression of Vs and N60, produces improved fits, as opposed to the stress corrected equations in which the R2 of the regression is notably lower. It is the correction of Vs and N60 to Vs1 and (N1)60 with empirical constants ‘n’ and ‘m’ prior to regression, that introduces bias with respect to overburden pressure. When comparing settlement prediction methods, both Stroud’s method (considering strain level indirectly) and the small strain stiffness method predict higher stiffnesses for medium dense and dense profiles than Webb’s method, which takes no account of strain level in the determination of soil stiffness. Webb’s method appears to be suitable for loose sands only. The Versak software appears to underestimate differences in settlement between square and strip footings of similar width. In conclusion, settlement analysis using small-strain stiffness data from the proposed Vs-N60 model for Cape Flats sands provides a way to take account of the non-linear stress-strain behaviour of the sands when calculating settlement.

Keywords: sands, settlement prediction, continuous surface wave test, small-strain stiffness, shear wave velocity, penetration resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Joanna Szymanska, Paulina Wawulska-Marek, Jaroslaw Mizera

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Nowadays, the rapid growth of global energy consumption and uncontrolled depletion of natural resources become a serious problem. Shale rocks are the largest and potential global basins containing hydrocarbons, trapped in closed pores of the shale matrix. Regardless of the shales origin, mining conditions are extremely unfavourable due to high reservoir pressure, great depths, increased clay minerals content and limited permeability (nanoDarcy) of the rocks. Taking into consideration such geomechanical barriers, effective extraction of natural gas from shales with plastic zones demands effective operations. Actually, hydraulic fracturing is the most developed technique based on the injection of pressurized fluid into a wellbore, to initiate fractures propagation. However, a rapid drop of pressure after fluid suction to the ground induces a fracture closure and conductivity reduction. In order to minimize this risk, proppants should be applied. They are solid granules transported with hydraulic fluids to locate inside the rock. Proppants act as a prop for the closing fracture, thus gas migration to a borehole is effective. Quartz sands are commonly applied proppants only at shallow deposits (USA). Whereas, ceramic proppants are designed to meet rigorous downhole conditions to intensify output. Ceramic granules predominate with higher mechanical strength, stability in strong acidic environment, spherical shape and homogeneity as well. Quality of ceramic proppants is conditioned by raw materials selection. Aim of this study was to obtain the proppants from aluminosilicates (the kaolinite subgroup) and mix of minerals with a high alumina content. These loamy minerals contain a tubular and platy morphology that improves mechanical properties and reduces their specific weight. Moreover, they are distinguished by well-developed surface area, high porosity, fine particle size, superb dispersion and nontoxic properties - very crucial for particles consolidation into spherical and crush-resistant granules in mechanical granulation process. The aluminosilicates were mixed with water and natural organic binder to improve liquid-bridges and pores formation between particles. Afterward, the green proppants were subjected to sintering at high temperatures. Evaluation of the minerals utility was based on their particle size distribution (laser diffraction study) and thermal stability (thermogravimetry). Scanning Electron Microscopy was useful for morphology and shape identification combined with specific surface area measurement (BET). Chemical composition was verified by Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy and X-ray Fluorescence. Moreover, bulk density and specific weight were measured. Such comprehensive characterization of loamy materials confirmed their favourable impact on the proppants granulation. The sintered granules were analyzed by SEM to verify the surface topography and phase transitions after sintering. Pores distribution was identified by X-Ray Tomography. This method enabled also the simulation of proppants settlement in a fracture, while measurement of bulk density was essential to predict their amount to fill a well. Roundness coefficient was also evaluated, whereas impact on mining environment was identified by turbidity and solubility in acid - to indicate risk of the material decay in a well. The obtained outcomes confirmed a positive influence of the loamy minerals on ceramic proppants properties with respect to the strict norms. This research is perspective for higher quality proppants production with costs reduction.

Keywords: aluminosilicates, ceramic proppants, mechanical granulation, shale gas

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Ali Kazemi

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Those within the volatile and interconnected international economic markets, appropriately predicting market trends, hold substantial fees for traders and financial establishments. Traditional device mastering strategies have made full-size strides in forecasting marketplace movements; however, monetary data's complicated and networked nature calls for extra sophisticated processes. This observation offers a groundbreaking method for monetary marketplace prediction that leverages the synergistic capability of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our suggested algorithm is meticulously designed to forecast the traits of inventory market indices and cryptocurrency costs, utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2023. This era, marked by sizable volatility and transformation in financial markets, affords a solid basis for schooling and checking out our predictive version. Our algorithm integrates diverse facts to construct a dynamic economic graph that correctly reflects market intricacies. We meticulously collect opening, closing, and high and low costs daily for key inventory marketplace indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ) and widespread cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), ensuring a holistic view of marketplace traits. Daily trading volumes are also incorporated to seize marketplace pastime and liquidity, providing critical insights into the market's shopping for and selling dynamics. Furthermore, recognizing the profound influence of the monetary surroundings on financial markets, we integrate critical macroeconomic signs with hobby fees, inflation rates, GDP increase, and unemployment costs into our model. Our GCN algorithm is adept at learning the relational patterns amongst specific financial devices represented as nodes in a comprehensive market graph. Edges in this graph encapsulate the relationships based totally on co-movement styles and sentiment correlations, enabling our version to grasp the complicated community of influences governing marketplace moves. Complementing this, our LSTM algorithm is trained on sequences of the spatial-temporal illustration discovered through the GCN, enriched with historic fee and extent records. This lets the LSTM seize and expect temporal marketplace developments accurately. Inside the complete assessment of our GCN-LSTM algorithm across the inventory marketplace and cryptocurrency datasets, the version confirmed advanced predictive accuracy and profitability compared to conventional and opportunity machine learning to know benchmarks. Specifically, the model performed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85%, indicating high precision in predicting day-by-day charge movements. The RMSE was recorded at 1.2%, underscoring the model's effectiveness in minimizing tremendous prediction mistakes, which is vital in volatile markets. Furthermore, when assessing the model's predictive performance on directional market movements, it achieved an accuracy rate of 78%, significantly outperforming the benchmark models, averaging an accuracy of 65%. This high degree of accuracy is instrumental for techniques that predict the course of price moves. This study showcases the efficacy of mixing graph-based totally and sequential deep learning knowledge in economic marketplace prediction and highlights the fee of a comprehensive, records-pushed evaluation framework. Our findings promise to revolutionize investment techniques and hazard management practices, offering investors and economic analysts a powerful device to navigate the complexities of cutting-edge economic markets.

Keywords: financial market prediction, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), cryptocurrency forecasting

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Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

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These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 31