Search results for: financial market prediction

Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

Abstract:

Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Shraddha Jain Sharma, Ratnalata Gupta

Abstract:

Predicting stock movements in the financial market is both difficult and rewarding. Analysts and academics are increasingly using advanced approaches such as machine learning techniques to anticipate stock price patterns, thanks to the expanding capacity of computing and the recent advent of graphics processing units and tensor processing units. Stock market prediction is a type of time series prediction that is incredibly difficult to do since stock prices are influenced by a variety of financial, socioeconomic, and political factors. Furthermore, even minor mistakes in stock market price forecasts can result in significant losses for companies that employ the findings of stock market price prediction for financial analysis and investment. Soft computing techniques are increasingly being employed for stock market prediction due to their better accuracy than traditional statistical methodologies. The proposed research looks at the need for soft computing techniques in stock market prediction, the numerous soft computing approaches that are important to the field, past work in the area with their prominent features, and the significant problems or issue domain that the area involves. For constructing a predictive model, the major focus is on neural networks and fuzzy logic. The stock market is extremely unpredictable, and it is unquestionably tough to correctly predict based on certain characteristics. This study provides a complete overview of the numerous strategies investigated for high accuracy prediction, with a focus on the most important characteristics.

Keywords: stock market prediction, artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, accuracy, deep learning, machine learning, stock price, trading volume

Procedia PDF Downloads 58

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

Abstract:

Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Irfan Ullah Munir, Shen Yue, Muhammad Shahzad Ijaz, Saad Hussain, Syeda Yumna Zaidi

Abstract:

Financial literacy is fundamental to every decision-making process and has received attention from researchers, regulatory bodies and policy makers in the recent past. This study is an attempt to evaluate financial literacy in an emerging economy, particularly Pakistan, and its influence on people's stock market participation. Data of this study was collected through a structured questionnaire from a sample of 300 respondents. EFA is used to check the convergent and discriminant validity. Data is analyzed using Hayes (2013) approach. A set of demographic control variables that have passed the mean difference test is used. We demonstrate that participants with financial literacy tend to invest more in the stock market. We also find that association among financial literacy and participation in stock market gets moderated by gender.

Keywords: Financial literacy, Stock market participation, Gender, PSX

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightly-distressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models, are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the two-stage model incorporating financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors has the lowest misclassification error rate. The two-stage model is more accurate than the one-stage model as its distressed cut-off indicators are adjusted according to the macroeconomic-based credit cycle index.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Saeed Rabea Baatwah, Zalailah Salleh, Norsiah Ahmad

Abstract:

This study examines whether audit committee chair with financial expertise enhances the audit committee role in financial reporting quality in emerging market. We investigate this influence by employing the direct effect and moderating effect of audit committee chair with financial expertise on financial reporting timeliness. By using Omani data and the panel data method for two proxies for financial reporting timeliness, we find that audit committee chair with financial expertise enhances the timeliness of financial reporting through making the disclosure of annual reports timely. Further, we report evidence showing that both accounting and non-accounting financial expertise on the audit committee have a positive and significant influence on the timeliness of financial reporting. We also document that the association between financial expertise and the timeliness of financial reporting is more pronounced when the chair of the audit committee has financial expertise. This study is among the first to comprehensively prove that audit committee chair with financial expertise contributes to the quality of financial reporting in emerging market.

Keywords: audit committee, chair with financial expertise, timeliness of financial reporting, Oman

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

Abstract:

The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), prediction, stock market, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik, Younes Boujelbene

Abstract:

We introduce in this paper a new conceptual model representing the stock market dynamics. This model is essentially based on cognitive behavior of the intelligence investors. In order to validate our model, we build an artificial stock market simulation based on agent-oriented methodologies. The proposed simulator is composed of market supervisor agent essentially responsible for executing transactions via an order book and various kinds of investor agents depending to their profile. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the influence of psychological character of an investor and its neighborhood on its decision-making and their impact on the market in terms of price fluctuations. Therefore, the difficulty of the prediction is due to several features: the complexity, the non-linearity and the dynamism of the financial market system, as well as the investor psychology. The Artificial Neural Networks learning mechanism take on the role of traders, who from their futures return expectations and place orders based on their expectations. The results of intensive analysis indicate that the existence of agents having heterogeneous beliefs and preferences has provided a better understanding of price dynamics in the financial market.

Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, artificial stock market, behavioral modeling, multi-agent based simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: Sonal Purohit, Animesh Dubey

Abstract:

Corporate governance deals with the entire network of formal and informal relationship with the management of the company and company’s stakeholders including employees, customers, creditors, local communities, and society in general. The recent financial crisis was truly a global crisis in its nature and effects. The Indian financial markets were not immune to this global financial crisis. It is believed that corporate governance also had a major role to play in staggering the effect of this crisis. The objective of this paper is to examine the failure of prevailing corporate governance practice in India during financial crisis. Lack of appropriate implementation of the corporate government norms was a reason behind the phenomenon of money being pulled-out by FIIs, which constitute major investors and influencers of the Indian financial market.

Keywords: corporate governance, FII, financial market, financial crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Fahad Ahmed Qureshi

Abstract:

There were abundant renowned financial markets in Pre-Islamic Arabs. Most of those were patterned and settled during pre-particularized sunshine. Those markets were classified either as vernacular markets helping the neighboring clans, or habitual markets that people sojourned to from all articulations of the Arabian Peninsula, such as Okaz near Mecca. Some of those markets had leading significance due to their geographical positions, such as Prime market of Eden, because of their entanglement in international trade i.e. with the markets of Sub-Continent, Abyssinia, Persia and China. Other markets such as Market of Yamamah annex its gist from being situated on the caravan crossroads. Islamic worldview and Islamic epistemology base of Financial Market’s realistic theory, pragmatic model and operative approach is moderately constrained in terms of its growth. The existent situation only parasol the form of accommodative-modification and splendid-methodologies, which due to depleted and decorous endeavor in explaining Islamic financial market theoretically. This is the demand of time that particular studies should be conduct to magnify the devours in developing theoretical framework for Islamic Financial Market.

Keywords: Islam, financial market, history, research, product development

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

Abstract:

This study aims to establish a concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in the Islamic Financial Market (Banking and Capital Markets). A rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the profit sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors, including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets value that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in the Islamic Bond Market in the Capital Market.

Keywords: economic justice, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth, rate of profit, stability in the financial system

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

Abstract:

Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Vilma Deltuvaitė

Abstract:

Comparisons of financial development across countries are central to answering many of the questions on factors leading to economic development. For this reason this study analyzes the implications of financial system’s development on country’s economic development. The aim of the article: to analyze the impact of financial system’s development on economic development. The following research methods were used: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of statistical data, time series model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model). The empirical results suggest about positive short and long term effect of stock market development on GDP per capita.

Keywords: banking sector, economic development, financial system’s development, stock market, private bond market

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Shreemoyee Sarkar, Vikhyat Chadha

Abstract:

In this paper, the local fractal properties and chaotic properties of financial time series are investigated by calculating two exponents, the Local Hurst Exponent: LHE and Lyapunov Exponent in a moving time window of a financial series.y. For the purpose of this paper, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500, two of the major indices of United States have been considered. The behaviour of the above-mentioned exponents prior to some major crashes (1998 and 2008 crashes in S&P 500 and 2002 and 2008 crashes in DIJA) is discussed. Also, the optimal length of the window for obtaining the best possible results is decided. Based on the outcomes of the above, an attempt is made to predict the crashes and accuracy of such an algorithm is decided.

Keywords: local hurst exponent, lyapunov exponent, market crash prediction, time series chaos, time series local fractal properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik

Abstract:

A computational agent-based model of financial markets stresses interactions and dynamics among a very diverse set of traders. The growing body of research in this area relies heavily on computational tools which by-pass the restrictions of an analytical method. The main goal of this research is to understand how the stock market operates and behaves how to invest in the stock market and to study traders’ behavior within the context of the artificial stock markets populated by heterogeneous agents. All agents are characterized by adaptive learning behavior represented by the Artificial Neuron Networks. By using agent-based simulations on artificial market, we show that the existence of heterogeneous agents can explain the price dynamics in the financial market. We investigate the relation between market diversity and market efficiency. Our empirical findings demonstrate that greater market heterogeneity play key roles in market efficiency.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, artificial stock market, heterogeneous expectations, financial stylized facts, computational finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Md. Qamruzzaman, Wei Jianguo

Abstract:

Over the decade, it is observed that financial development, through financial innovation, not only accelerated development of efficient and effective financial system but also act as a catalyst in the economic development process. In this study, we try to explore insight about how financial innovation causes economic growth in Bangladesh by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the period of 1990-2014. Test of Cointegration confirms the existence of a long-run association between financial innovation and economic growth. For investigating directional causality, we apply Granger causality test and estimation explore that long-run growth will be affected by capital flow from non-bank financial institutions and inflation in the economy but changes of growth rate do not have any impact on Capital flow in the economy and level of inflation in long-run. Whereas, growth and Market capitalization, as well as market capitalization and capital flow, confirm feedback hypothesis. Variance decomposition suggests that any innovation in the financial sector can cause GDP variation fluctuation in both long run and short run. Financial innovation promotes efficiency and cost in financial transactions in the financial system, can boost economic development process. The study proposed two policy recommendations for further development. First, innovation friendly financial policy should formulate to encourage adaption and diffusion of financial innovation in the financial system. Second, operation of financial market and capital market should be regulated with implementation of rules and regulation to create conducive environment.

Keywords: financial innovation, economic growth, GDP, financial institution, VECM

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: derivatives, exchange traded products (ETP), financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Eunsup Daniel Shim, Jooh Lee

Abstract:

The US financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent Global Financial Crisis were considered by many economists the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As a results, Dodd-Frank Act has passed and aims '(1) to promote the financial stability of the United States by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system, to end "too big to fail", (2) to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts, (3) to protect consumers from abusive financial services practices, and for other purposes.' The enactment of Dodd-Frank Act, in part, intended to significantly influence accountability on executive compensation especially for the financial institutions. This paper empirically investigates the changes in Financial CEOs’ compensation since the Financial Crisis of 2008. Our findings show that in the post- Financial Crisis period financial leverage is significant factor influencing the CEOs’ total compensation. In addition market based performance such as stock price and market-to-book ratio shows significant positive relationship with CEO compensation. This change can be interpreted an attempt to reduce opportunistic behavior of top executives after the financial crisis and the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act.

Keywords: financial CEO compensation, firm performance, financial crisis of 2008, dodd-frank act

Procedia PDF Downloads 492

Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

Abstract:

In this paper, effects and responses of stock were analyzed. This analysis was done periodically. The dimensions of the financial crisis impact on the stock market were investigated by GARCH model. In this context, S&P 500 stock market is modeled with DAX, NIKKEI and BIST100. In this way, The effects of the changing in S&P 500 stock market were examined on European and Asian stock markets. Conditional variance coefficient will be calculated through garch model. The scope of the crisis period, the conditional covariance coefficient will be analyzed comparatively.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: K. Matušínská, H. Starzyczná, M. Stoklasa

Abstract:

The paper deals with behaviour of the segment 50+ in the financial market in the Czech Republic. This segment could be said as the strong market power and it can be a crucial business potential for financial business units. The main defined objective of this paper is analysis of the customers´ behaviour of the segment 50-60 years in the financial market in the Czech Republic and proposal making of the suitable marketing approach to satisfy their demands in the area of product, price, distribution and marketing communication policy. This paper is based on data from one part of primary marketing research. Paper determinates the basic problem areas as well as definition of financial services marketing, defining the primary research problem, hypothesis and primary research methodology. Finally suitable marketing approach to selected sub-segment at age of 50-60 years is proposed according to marketing research findings.

Keywords: population aging in the Czech Republic, segment 50-60 years, financial services marketing, marketing research, marketing approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Vithaya Intaraphimol

Abstract:

This research investigates the effect of financial accounting information and non-financial accounting reports on corporate credibility via strength of board of directors and market environment volatility as moderating effect. Data in this research is collected by questionnaire form non-financial companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Multiple regression statistic technique is chosen for analyzing the data. The empirical results find that firms with greater financial accounting information reports and non-financial accounting information reports will gain greater corporate credibility. Therefore, the corporate reporting has the value for the firms. Moreover, the strength of board of directors will positively moderate the financial and non-financial accounting information reports and corporate credibility relationship. Whereas, market environment volatility will negatively moderate the financial and nonfinancial accounting information reports and corporate credibility relationship.

Keywords: corporate credibility, financial and non-financial reports, firms performance, economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Zouari Ezzeddine, Ghraieb Ikram

Abstract:

From the results of the academic literature which evokes the limitations of previous studies, this article shows the reasons for multidimensionality Prediction of financial bubbles. A new framework for modeling study predicting financial bubbles by linking a set of variable presented on several dimensions dictating its multidimensional character. It takes into account the preferences of financial actors. A multicriteria anticipation of the appearance of bubbles in international financial markets helps to fight against a possible crisis.

Keywords: classical measures, predictions, financial bubbles, multidimensional, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 540

Authors: Mo-Se Lee, Cheol-Hwi Ahn, Kee-Young Kwahk, Hyunchul Ahn

Abstract:

Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as effective solution for recognizing and classifying images, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems in various fields. In this study, we try to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. In specific, we propose to apply CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (up or down) by using a graph as its input. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics a person who looks at the graph and predicts whether the trend will go up or down. Our proposed model consists of four steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into 5 days, 10 days, 15 days, and 20 days. And then, it creates graphs for each interval in step 2. In the next step, CNN classifiers are trained using the graphs generated in the previous step. In step 4, it optimizes the hyper parameters of the trained model by using the validation dataset. To validate our model, we will apply it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 1,986 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). The experimental dataset will include 14 technical indicators such as CCI, Momentum, ROC and daily closing price of KOSPI200 of Korean stock market.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, Korean stock market, stock market prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Mohammad Hossein Ranjbar, Mahdi Bagheri, B. Shivaraj

Abstract:

This study attempts to investigate the relationship between stock market of Iran and GCC countries stock exchanges. Eight markets were included: the stock market of Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Oman. Daily country market indices were collected from January 2005 to December 2010. The potential time-varying behaviors of long-run stock market relationship among selected markets are tested applying correlation test, Augmented Dick Fuller test (ADF), Bilateral and Multilateral Cointegration (Johansen), and the Granger Causality test. The findings suggest that stock market of Iran is negatively correlated with most of the selected markets in the whole duration. But contemporaneous correlations among the eight selected markets are increased positively in period of financial crises. Bilateral Cointegration between selected markets suggests that there is no integration between Tehran stock exchange and other selected markets. Among other markets, except the stock market of Dubai and Abu Dhabi as a one pair, are not cointegrated in whole, but in duration of financial crises integration between selected markets are increased. Finally, investigation of the casual relationship among eight financial markets suggests there are unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationship among some of stock market indices.

Keywords: financial crises, Middle East, stock market integration, Granger Causality test, ARDL test

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

Abstract:

Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

Procedia PDF Downloads 58

Authors: Abdulla D. Alblooshi

Abstract:

The stock market is a representation of human behavior and psychology, such as fear, greed, and discipline. Those are manifested in the form of price movements during the trading sessions. Therefore, predicting the stock movement and prices is a challenging effort. However, those trading sessions produce a large amount of data that can be utilized to train an AI agent for the purpose of predicting the stock movement. Predicting the stock market price action will be advantageous. In this paper, the stock movement data of three DFM listed stocks are studied using historical price movements and technical indicators value and used to train an agent using KNN and SVM methods to predict the future price movement. MATLAB Toolbox and a simple script is written to process and classify the information and output the prediction. It will also compare the different learning methods and parameters s using metrics like RMSE, MAE, and R².

Keywords: KNN, ANN, style, SVM, stocks, technical indicators, RSI, MACD, moving averages, RMSE, MAE

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Irina Bondarenko, Olga Vandina

Abstract:

The theory of evolutionary economics is the basis for preparation and application of methods forming the stock market infrastructure development concept. The authors believe that the basis for the process of formation and development of the stock market model infrastructure in Russia is the theory of large systems. This theory considers the financial market infrastructure as a whole on the basis of macroeconomic approach with the further definition of its aims and objectives. Evaluation of the prospects for interaction of securities market institutions will enable identifying the problems associated with the development of this system. The interaction of elements of the stock market infrastructure allows to reduce the costs and time of transactions, thereby freeing up resources of market participants for more efficient operation. Thus, methodology of the transaction analysis allows to determine the financial infrastructure as a set of specialized institutions that form a modern quasi-stable system. The financial infrastructure, based on international standards, should include trading systems, regulatory and supervisory bodies, rating agencies, settlement, clearing and depository organizations. Distribution of financial assets, reducing the magnitude of transaction costs, increased transparency of the market are promising tasks in the solution for questions of services level and quality increase provided by institutions of the securities market financial infrastructure. In order to improve the efficiency of the regulatory system, it is necessary to provide "standards" for all market participants. The development of a clear regulation for the barrier to the stock market entry and exit, provision of conditions for the development and implementation of new laws regulating the activities of participants in the securities market, as well as formulation of proposals aimed at minimizing risks and costs, will enable the achievement of positive results. The latter will be manifested in increasing the level of market participant security and, accordingly, the attractiveness of this market for investors and issuers.

Keywords: institutional infrastructure, financial assets, regulatory system, stock market, transparency of the market

Procedia PDF Downloads 112