Search results for: packet loss probability

Authors: Elmabruk Laias

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IEEE Standard 802.16 provides QoS (Quality of Service) for the applications such as Voice over IP, video streaming and high bandwidth file transfer. With the ability of broadband wireless access of an IEEE 802.16 system, a WiMAX TDD frame contains one downlink subframe and one uplink subframe. The capacity allocated to each subframe is a system parameter that should be determined based on the expected traffic conditions. a proper resource allocation scheme for packet transmissions is imperatively needed. In this paper, we present a new resource allocation scheme, called additional bandwidth yielding (ABY), to improve transmission efficiency of an IEEE 802.16-based network. Our proposed scheme can be adopted along with the existing scheduling algorithms and the multi-priority scheme without any change. The experimental results show that by using our ABY, the packet queuing delay could be significantly improved, especially for the service flows of higher-priority classes.

Keywords: IEEE 802.16, WiMAX, OFDMA, resource allocation, uplink-downlink mapping

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, minimum flows, probability distribution

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Authors: Seyed Mahdi Jameii

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Underwater wireless sensor networks have been attracting the interest of many ‎researchers lately, and the past three decades have beheld the rapid progress of ‎underwater acoustic communication. One of the major problems in underwater wireless ‎sensor networks is how to transfer data from the moving node to the base stations and ‎choose the optimized route for data transmission. Secure routing in underwater ‎wireless sensor network (UWCNs) is necessary for packet delivery. Some routing ‎protocols are proposed for underwater wireless sensor networks. However, a few ‎researches have been done on secure routing in underwater sensor networks. In this ‎article, a secure routing protocol is provided to resist against wormhole and sybil ‎attacks. The results indicated acceptable performance in terms of increasing the packet ‎delivery ratio with regards to the attacks, increasing network lifetime by creating ‎balance in the network energy consumption, high detection rates against the attacks, ‎and low-end to end delay.‎

Keywords: attacks, routing, security, underwater wireless sensor networks

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Authors: M. B. Ahmadi, A. A. Kaffash B., B. Mobaraki

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Slump loss, which refers to the gradual reduction of workability and the amount of slump in fresh concrete over time, is one of the significant challenges in the ready-mixed concrete industry. Therefore, having accurate knowledge of the factors affecting slump loss is a crucial solution in this field. In this paper, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of cement produced by different units on the slump of concrete in a laboratory setting. For this purpose, 12 cement samples were prepared from 6 different production units. Physical and chemical tests were performed on the cement samples. Subsequently, a laboratory concrete mix with a slump of 13 ± 1 cm was prepared with each cement sample, and the slump was measured at 0, 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes. Although the environmental factors, mix design specifications, and execution conditions—factors that significantly influence the slump loss trend—were constant in all 12 laboratory concrete mixes, the slump loss trends differed among them. These trends were categorized based on the results, and the relationship between the slump loss percentage in 60 minutes, the water-cement ratio, and the LOI and K2O values of different cements were introduced.

Keywords: concrete, slump loss, portland cement, efficiency

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Authors: Ernesto Pineda Leon, Dante Tolentino Lopez, Janis Zapata Lopez

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The current paper shows the application of the boundary element method for the analysis of plates under shear stress causing plasticity. In this case, the shear deformation of a plate is considered by means of the Reissner’s theory. The probability of failure of a Reissner’s plate due to a proposed index plastic behavior is calculated taken into account the uncertainty in mechanical and geometrical properties. The problem is developed in two dimensions. The classic plasticity’s theory is applied and a formulation for initial stresses that lead to the boundary integral equations due to plasticity is also used. For the plasticity calculation, the Von Misses criteria is used. To solve the non-linear equations an incremental method is employed. The results show a relatively small failure probability for the ranges of loads between 0.6 and 1.0. However, for values between 1.0 and 2.5, the probability of failure increases significantly. Consequently, for load bigger than 2.5 the plate failure is a safe event. The results are compared to those that were found in the literature and the agreement is good.

Keywords: boundary element method, failure, plasticity, probability

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Authors: Kofi Kyei, Kenchi Matsui

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Loss of vegetable products has been a major constraint in the post-harvest chain. Sources of post-harvest loss in the vegetable industry start from the time of harvesting to its handling and at the various market centers. Identifying vegetable farmers’ perceptions about post-harvest loss sources is one way of addressing this issue. In this paper, we assessed farmers’ perceptions about sources of post-harvest losses in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. We also identified the factors that influence their perceptions. To clearly understand farmers’ perceptions, we selected Sekyere-Kumawu District in the Ashanti Region. Sekyere-Kumawu District is one of the major producers of vegetables in the Region. Based on a questionnaire survey, 100 vegetable farmers growing tomato, pepper, okra, cabbage, and garden egg were purposely selected from five communities in Sekyere-Kumawu District. For farmers’ perceptions, the five points Likert scale was employed. On a scale from 1 (no loss) to 5 (extremely high loss), we processed the scores for each vegetable harvest. To clarify factors influencing farmers’ perceptions, the Pearson Correlation analysis was used. Our findings revealed that farmers perceive post-harvest loss by pest infestation as the most extreme loss. However, vegetable farmers did not perceive loss during transportation as a serious source of post-harvest loss. The Pearson Correlation analysis results further revealed that farmers’ age, gender, level of education, and years of experience had an influence on their perceptions. This paper then discusses some recommendations to minimize the post-harvest loss in the region.

Keywords: Ashanti Region, pest infestation, post-harvest loss, vegetable farmers

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Authors: Leonard Chimaobi Agim, Charles Arinzechukwu Igwe, Emmanuel Uzoma Onweremadu, Gabreil Osuji

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Soil erosion has been linked to stream sedimentation, ecosystem degradation, and loss of soil nutrients. A study was conducted to evaluate the effect of some organic amendment on sediment yield, splash loss, and runoff of soils of selected parent materials in southeastern Nigeria. A total of 20 locations, five from each of four parent materials namely: Asu River Group (ARG), Bende Ameki Group (BAG), Coastal Plain Sand (CPS) and Falsebedded Sandstone (FBS) were used for the study. Collected soil samples were analyzed with standard methods for the initial soil properties. Rainfall simulation at an intensity of 190 mm hr-1was conducted for 30 minutes on the soil samples at both the initial stage and after amendment to obtain erosion parameters. The influence of parent material on sediment yield, splash loss and runoff based on rainfall simulation was tested for using one way analyses of variance, while the influence of organic material and their combinations were a factorially fitted in a randomized complete block design. The organic amendments include; goat dropping (GD), poultry dropping (PD), municipal solid waste (MSW) and their combinations (COA) applied at four rates of 0, 10, 20 and 30 t ha-1 respectively. Data were analyzed using analyses of variance suitable for a factorial experiment. Significant means were separated using LSD at 5 % probability levels. Result showed significant (p ≤ 0.05) lower values of sediment yield, splash loss and runoff following amendment. For instance, organic amendment reduced sediment yield under wet and dry runs by 12.91 % and 26.16% in Ishiagu, 40.76% and 45.67%, in Bende, 16.17% and 50% in Obinze and 22.80% and 42.35% in Umulolo respectively. Goat dropping and combination of amendment gave the best results in reducing sediment yield.

Keywords: organic amendment, parent material, rainfall simulation, soil erosion

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Authors: Yoonsuh Jung, Steven N. MacEachern

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Check loss function is used to define quantile regression. In the prospect of cross validation, it is also employed as a validation function when underlying truth is unknown. However, our empirical study indicates that the validation with check loss often leads to choosing an over estimated fits. In this work, we suggest a modified or L2-adjusted check loss which rounds the sharp corner in the middle of check loss. It has a large effect of guarding against over fitted model in some extent. Through various simulation settings of linear and non-linear regressions, the improvement of check loss by L2 adjustment is empirically examined. This adjustment is devised to shrink to zero as sample size grows.

Keywords: cross-validation, model selection, quantile regression, tuning parameter selection

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

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This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: ruin probability, compound poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions

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Authors: P. K. Guha Thakurta, Shouvik Roy, Bhawana Raj

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A congestion control scheme in mobile networks is proposed in this paper through a verification based model. The model proposed in this work is represented through performance metric like buffer Occupancy, latency and packet loss rate. Based on pre-defined values, each of the metric is introduced in terms of three different states. A Markov chain based model for the proposed work is introduced to monitor the occurrence of the corresponding state transitions. Thus, the estimation of the network status is obtained in terms of performance metric. In addition, the improved performance of our proposed model over existing works is shown with experimental results.

Keywords: congestion, mobile networks, buffer, delay, call drop, markov chain

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Authors: Ho-Ting Wu, Kai-Wei Ke, Bo-Yu Huang, Liang-Lin Yan, Chun-Ting Lin

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With the advances in advanced technology, wireless sensor network (WSN) has become one of the most promising candidates to implement the wireless industrial internet of things (IIOT) architecture. However, the legacy IEEE 802.15.4 based WSN technology such as Zigbee system cannot meet the stringent QoS requirement of low powered, real-time, and highly reliable transmission imposed by the IIOT environment. Recently, the IEEE society developed IEEE 802.15.4e Time Slotted Channel Hopping (TSCH) access mode to serve this purpose. Furthermore, the IETF 6TiSCH working group has proposed standards to integrate IEEE 802.15.4e with IPv6 protocol smoothly to form a complete protocol stack for IIOT. In this work, we develop key network technologies for IEEE 802.15.4e based wireless IIoT architecture, focusing on practical design and system implementation. We realize the OpenWSN-based wireless IIOT system. The system architecture is divided into three main parts: web server, network manager, and sensor nodes. The web server provides user interface, allowing the user to view the status of sensor nodes and instruct sensor nodes to follow commands via user-friendly browser. The network manager is responsible for the establishment, maintenance, and management of scheduling and topology information. It executes centralized scheduling algorithm, sends the scheduling table to each node, as well as manages the sensing tasks of each device. Sensor nodes complete the assigned tasks and sends the sensed data. Furthermore, to prevent scheduling error due to packet loss, a schedule inspection mechanism is implemented to verify the correctness of the schedule table. In addition, when network topology changes, the system will act to generate a new schedule table based on the changed topology for ensuring the proper operation of the system. To enhance the system performance of such system, we further propose dynamic bandwidth allocation and distributed scheduling mechanisms. The developed distributed scheduling mechanism enables each individual sensor node to build, maintain and manage the dedicated link bandwidth with its parent and children nodes based on locally observed information by exchanging the Add/Delete commands via two processes. The first process, termed as the schedule initialization process, allows each sensor node pair to identify the available idle slots to allocate the basic dedicated transmission bandwidth. The second process, termed as the schedule adjustment process, enables each sensor node pair to adjust their allocated bandwidth dynamically according to the measured traffic loading. Such technology can sufficiently satisfy the dynamic bandwidth requirement in the frequently changing environments. Last but not least, we propose a packet retransmission scheme to enhance the system performance of the centralized scheduling algorithm when the packet delivery rate (PDR) is low. We propose a multi-frame retransmission mechanism to allow every single network node to resend each packet for at least the predefined number of times. The multi frame architecture is built according to the number of layers of the network topology. Performance results via simulation reveal that such retransmission scheme is able to provide sufficient high transmission reliability while maintaining low packet transmission latency. Therefore, the QoS requirement of IIoT can be achieved.

Keywords: IEEE 802.15.4e, industrial internet of things (IIOT), scheduling mechanisms, wireless sensor networks (WSN)

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Authors: Lina Abou Haibeh, Nadir Hakem, Ousama Abu Safia

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In this paper, the performance and quality of Voice over IP (VoIP) calls carried over a Mobile Ad Hoc Network (MANET) which has a number of SIP nodes registered on a SIP Proxy are analyzed. The testing campaigns are carried out in an indoor corridor structure having a well-defined channel’s characteristics and model for the different voice codecs, G.711, G.727 and G.723.1. These voice codecs are commonly used in VoIP technology. The calls’ quality are evaluated using four Quality of Service (QoS) metrics, namely, mean opinion score (MOS), jitter, delay, and packet loss. The relationship between the wireless channel’s parameters and the optimum codec is well-established. According to the experimental results, the voice codec G.711 has the best performance for the proposed MANET topology

Keywords: wireless channel modelling, Voip, MANET, session initiation protocol (SIP), QoS

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Authors: Rashid Mahmood, Muhammad Sufyan, Nasir Ahmed

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The MANETs have lessened transportation and decentralized network. There are numerous basis of routing protocols. We derived the MANETs protocol into three major categories like Reactive, Proactive and hybrid. In these protocols, we discussed only some protocols like Distance Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), Ad hoc on Demand Distance Vector (AODV) and Dynamic Source Routing (DSR). The AODV and DSR are both reactive type of protocols. On the other hand, DSDV is proactive type protocol here. We compare these routing protocols for network security estimated by network simulator (NS-2). In this dissertation some parameters discussed such as simulation time, packet size, number of node, packet delivery fraction, push time and speed etc. We will construct all these parameters on routing protocols under suitable conditions for network security measures.

Keywords: DSDV, AODV, DSR NS-2, PDF, push time

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Authors: Peter Akayuure, Michael Johnson Nabie

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Similar to many colonized nations in the world, one indelible mark left by colonial masters after Ghana’s independence in 1957 has been the fact that many contexts used to teach statistics and probability concepts are often alien and do not resonate with the social domain of our indigenous Ghanaian child. This has seriously limited the understanding, discoveries, and applications of mathematics for national developments. With the recent curriculum demands of making the Ghanaian child mathematically literate, this qualitative study involved video recordings and mathematical analysis of play sessions of an indigenous girl game called Ampe with the aim to demystify the concepts in probability theorem, which is applied in mathematics related fields of study. The mathematical analysis shows that the game of Ampe, which is widely played by school girls in Ghana, is suitable for learning concepts of the probability theorems. It was also revealed that as a girl game, the use of Ampe provides good lessons to educators, textbook writers, and teachers to rethink about the selection of mathematics tasks and learning contexts that are sensitive to gender. As we undertake to transform teacher education and student learning, the use of indigenous games should be critically revisited.

Keywords: Ampe, mathematical analysis, probability theorem, Ghanaian girl game

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Authors: Noranis Ismail, Shamsul H. A. Rahman

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The objective of this research is to accentuate the importance of Visual Corporate Identity by utilizing Malay motifs amalgamated with Malay proverbs to enhance the corporate brand of The Design School (TDS) of Taylor’s University. The researchers aim to manipulate festive money packet as a mean to communicate to the audience by using non-verbal visual cues such as colour, languages, and symbols that reflect styles and cultural heritage. The paper concluded that it is possible to utilize Hari Raya packet as a medium for creative expressions by creating high-impact design through the symbolism of selected Malay proverbs and traditional Malay motifs to enhance TDS corporate visual identity. It also provides a vital contribution to other organizations to understand an integral part of corporate visual identity in heightening corporate brand by communicating indirectly to its stakeholders using visual mnemonic and cultural heritage.

Keywords: corporate branding, cultural cues, Malay culture, visual identity

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Authors: Bilal Haider, Farhan Aadil

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A Vehicular Ad hoc Network (VANET) provides various services to end-users traveling on the road at high speeds. However, this high-speed mobility of mobile nodes can cause frequent service disruptions. Various mobility management protocols exist for managing node mobility, but due to their centralized nature, they tend to suffer in the VANET environment. In this research, we proposed a distributed mobility management protocol using software-defined networks (SDN) for VANETs. Instead of relying on a centralized mobility anchor, the mobility functionality is distributed at multiple infrastructural nodes. The protocol is based on the classical Proxy Mobile IP version 6 (PMIPv6). It is evident from simulation results that this work has improved the network performance with respect to nodes throughput, delay, and packet loss.

Keywords: SDN, VANET, mobility management, optimization

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Authors: Boumediene Hamzi, Turky N. AlOtaiby, Saleh AlShebeili, Arwa AlAnqary

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We introduce a data-driven method for seizure detection drawing on recent progress in Machine Learning. The method is based on embedding probability measures in a high (or infinite) dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is computed. The MMD is metric between probability measures that are computed as the difference between the means of probability measures after being embedded in an RKHS. Working in RKHS provides a convenient, general functional-analytical framework for theoretical understanding of data. We apply this approach to the problem of seizure detection.

Keywords: kernel methods, maximum mean discrepancy, seizure detection, machine learning

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Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

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We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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Authors: Abdulrazaq O. Raji, Abba Mohammed, Ibrahim D. Mohammed

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This study was conducted to investigate foetal loss among slaughtered livestock species at the Maiduguri abattoir from 2009 to 2013. Record of animals slaughtered monthly and fetuses recovered were collected from the management of the Maiduguri abattoir. Data was subjected to Analysis of Variance using the General Linear Model of SPSS 13.0 with Season, Species and their interaction as fixed factors. Average yearly slaughter at the Maiduguri abattoir was 63,225 animals with cattle, camel, goat and sheep accounting for 19737, 7374, 19281 and 17540 of the total. The corresponding number of those pregnant were 3117, 839, 2281 and 2432 out of a total of 8522 animals. Thus, cattle, camel, goat and sheep accounted for 30.87, 11.53, 30.16 and 27.44%, respectively of the animals slaughtered at the Abattoir and 35.96, 9.68, 26.31 and 28.05% of the foetal loss. The effect of season and species on foetal loss was significant (P < 0.05). The number of pregnant animals slaughtered and foetal loss were higher during wet than dry season. Similarly, foetal loss at the abattoir was higher in the month of May in respect of camel, goat and sheep, and August for cattle. Camel was the least slaughtered animal and had the least number of pregnant females. Foetal loss (%) was higher (P < 0.05) for cattle compared to other species. The interaction showed that camel was the least slaughtered species in both seasons and cattle in the wet season had the highest foetal loss.

Keywords: abattoir, foetal loss, season, species

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Authors: Rabiul Islam

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The study was in order to assess soil erosion at plot scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technique have been used for the study 8 plots in Guthrie Corridor Expressway, Selangor, Malaysia. The USLE model estimates an average soil loss soil integrating several factors such as rainfall erosivity factor(R ), Soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), vegetation cover factor as well as conservation practice factor (C &P) and Results shows that the four plots have very low rates of soil loss, i.e. NLDNM, NDNM, PLDM, and NDM having an average soil loss of 0.059, 0.106, 0.386 and 0.372 ton/ha/ year, respectively. The NBNM, PLDNM and NLDM plots had a relatively higher rate of soil loss, with an average of 0.678, 0.757 and 0.493ton/ha/year. Whereas, the NBM is one of the highest rate of soil loss from 0.842 ton/ha/year to maximum 16.466 ton/ha/year. The NBM plot was located at bare the land; hence the magnitude of C factor(C=0.15) was the highest one.

Keywords: USLE model, GIS, Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Malaysia

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Authors: Bushra Akram, Amina Tariq

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Objective: This cross-sectional descriptive study aimed to compare the level of resilience among children with and without hearing loss. Methodology: In this descriptive cross sectional study total 500 children (with hearing loss = 250 and without hearing loss = 250) were recruited conveniently. Children with hearing loss were recruited from the special schools whereas children without hearing loss were selected from regular schools located in cities of Gujrat and Jhelum of Pakistan. Respondents’ age ranged from 9-14 years. Resiliency scale named RSCA (Resiliency Scales for children and adolescents) developed by Sandra Prince Embury (2006) was used. RSCA consist of three core theoretical areas: MAS (Sense of Mastery Scale), REL (Sense of Relatedness Scale) and REA (Emotional Reactivity Scale). Results: Findings indicated that there was a significant difference in the resilience level of participants with and without hearing loss. The mean comparison showed that the children with hearing loss showed lower scores on MAS (X̅ = 43.32, SD = 7.55) as well as on REL (X̅ = 49.96, SD = 7.65) as compared to their counterparts on MAS (X̅ = 53.96, SD = 9.90, t= -7.31***) and on REL (X̅ = 68.43, SD = 14.57,t= -10.18***). However children with hearing loss showed higher scores on REA (X̅ = 42.12, SD = 5.84) as compared to hearing participants (X̅ = 28.84, SD = 13.97, t = -8.20***). The findings revealed no significance difference in the resilience level of hearing and deaf children on the basis of their gender and age. Research Outcomes and Future Scope: Children with hearing loss showed a lower level of resilience, therefore, needs a program to develop resilience for better social-emotional adjustment and enhancement of their psychological well-being. In the end, the researcher gave recommendations for future research.

Keywords: children with hearing loss, psychological Wellbeing, resiliency scales for children and adolescents, resilience

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Authors: Carolina Senabre Blanes, Sergio Valero Verdú, Emilio Velasco SáNchez

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This research objective is to obtain a percentage of success for each Ministry of Transport (MOT) facilities of each city of the Alicante region from Comunidad Valenciana from Spain by comparing results obtained by using different brake testers. It has been studied which types of brake tester are being used at each city nowadays. Different types of brake testers are used at each city, and the mechanical engineering staffs from the Miguel Hernández University have studied differences between all of them, and have obtained measures from each type. A percentage of probability of success will be given to each MOT station when you try to pass the exam with the same car with same characteristics and the same wheels. In other words, parameters of the vehicle have been controlled to be the same at all tests; therefore, brake measurements variability will be due to the type of testers could be used at the MOT station. A percentage of probability to pass the brake exam at each city will be given by comparing results of tests.

Keywords: brake tester, Mot station, probability to pass the exam, brake tester characteristics

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Authors: Ibrahim Ozkan

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In this study, a cross-layer design which combines adaptive modulation and coding (AMC) and hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) techniques for a cooperative wireless network is investigated analytically. Previous analyses of such systems in the literature are confined to the case where the fading channel is independent at each retransmission, which can be unrealistic unless the channel is varying very fast. On the other hand, temporal channel correlation can have a significant impact on the performance of HARQ systems. In this study, utilizing a Markov channel model which accounts for the temporal correlation, the performance of non-cooperative and cooperative networks are investigated in terms of packet loss rate and throughput metrics for Chase combining HARQ strategy.

Keywords: cooperative network, adaptive modulation and coding, hybrid ARQ, correlated fading

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

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Authors: Habib Gorine, Rabia Saleh

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Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks are the special type of wireless networks which share common security requirements with other networks such as confidentiality, integrity, authentication, and availability, which need to be addressed in order to secure data transfer through the network. Their routing protocols are vulnerable to various malicious attacks which could have a devastating consequence on data security. In this paper, three types of attacks such as selfish, gray hole, and black hole attacks have been applied to the two most important routing protocols in MANET named dynamic source routing and ad-hoc on demand distance vector in order to analyse and compare the impact of these attacks on the Network performance in terms of throughput, average delay, packet loss, and consumption of energy using NS2 simulator.

Keywords: MANET, wireless networks, routing protocols, malicious attacks, wireless networks simulation

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Authors: Marlen Acosta Alamo, Lisa Manne, Richard Veit

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Habitat loss due to land use change is one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. This form of habitat loss is a non-random phenomenon since the same environmental factors that make an area suitable for supporting high local biodiversity overlap with those that make it attractive for urban development. We aimed to compare the effect of two non-random habitat loss predictors on the richness, abundance, and rarity of nature-affiliated and human-affiliated North American breeding birds. For each group of birds, we simulated the non-random habitat loss using two predictors: the House Price Index as a measure of the attractiveness of an area for humans and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy for primary productivity. We compared the results of the two non-random simulation sets and one set of random habitat loss simulations using an analysis of variance and followed up with a Tukey-Kramer test when appropriate. The attractiveness of an area for humans predicted estimates of richness loss and increase of rarity higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for nature-affiliated and human-affiliated birds. For example, at 50% of habitat loss, the attractiveness of an area for humans produced estimates of richness at least 5% lower and of a rarity at least 40% higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for both groups of birds. Only for the species abundance of nature-affiliated birds, the attractiveness of an area for humans did not outperform primary productivity as a predictor of biodiversity following habitat loss. We demonstrated the value of the House Price Index, which can be used in conservation assessments as an index of the risks of habitat loss for natural communities. Thus, our results have relevant implications for sustainable urban land-use planning practices and can guide stakeholders and developers in their efforts to conserve local biodiversity.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, bird biodiversity, house price index, non-random habitat loss

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Authors: Augustine Osayande

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This research is on Major Gullies Erosion Sites and Volume of Soil Loss in Edo State, Nigeria. The primary objective was to identify notable gullies sites and quantify the volume of soil loss in the study area. Direct field observation and measurement of gullies dimensions was done with the help of research assistants using a measuring tape, Camera and 3percent accuracy Global Positioning System (GPS). The result revealed that notable gullies in the area have resulted in the loss of lives and properties, destruction of arable lands and wastage of large areas of usable lands. Gullies in Edo North have Mean Volume of Soil Loss of 614, 763.33 m³, followed by Edo South with 79,604.76 m³ and Edo Central is 46,242.98 m³ and as such an average of 1,772, 888.7m3 of soil is lost annually in the study area due to gully erosion problem. The danger of gully erosion in helpless regions like Edo State called for urgent remedies in order to arrest the further loss of soil, buildings and other properties.

Keywords: Edo, magnitude, gully, volume, soil, sloss

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Authors: Jialin Wu, Zhiwei Lian, Jieyu Tang, Jingyun Shen

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Tornado is a serious and unpredictable natural disaster, which has an important impact on people's production and life. The probability of being hit by tornadoes in China was analyzed considering the principles of tornado formation. Then some suggestions on layout and shapes for newly-built buildings were provided combined with the characteristics of tornado wind fields. Fuzzy clustering and inverse closeness methods were used to evaluate the probability levels of tornado risks in various provinces based on classification and ranking. GIS was adopted to display the results. Finally, wind field single-vortex tornado was studied to discuss the optimized design of rural low-rise houses in Yancheng, Jiangsu as an example. This paper may provide enough data to support building and urban design in some specific regions.

Keywords: tornado probability, computational fluid dynamics, fuzzy mathematics, optimal design

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Authors: Li Minghui, Min Shaorong, Zhang Jun

Abstract:

This paper aims for studying the operational efficiency of surface warship’s motorized evasion to acoustic homing torpedo. It orderly developed trajectory model, self-guide detection model, vessel evasion model, as well as anti-torpedo error model in three-dimensional space to make up for the deficiency of precious researches analyzing two-dimensionally confrontational models. Then, making use of the Monte Carlo method, it carried out the simulation for the confrontation process of evasion in the environment of MATLAB. At last, it quantitatively analyzed the main factors which determine vessel’s survival probability. The results show that evasion relative bearing and speed will affect vessel’s survival probability significantly. Thus, choosing appropriate evasion relative bearing and speed according to alarming range and alarming relative bearing for torpedo, improving alarming range and positioning accuracy and reducing the response time against torpedo will improve the vessel’s survival probability significantly.

Keywords: acoustic homing torpedo, vessel evasion, monte carlo method, torpedo defense, vessel's survival probability

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Authors: Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen

Abstract:

Individuals often over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities, however very low probabilities are either significantly over-weighted or neglected. Little is known about factors affecting probability weighting in Prospect Theory related to emotions specific to risk (anticipatory and anticipated emotions), the threshold of concern, as well as personality traits like locus of control. This study provides these insights by examining factors that influence probability weighting in the context of flood insurance demand in an economic experiment. In particular, we focus on determinants of flood probability neglect to provide recommendations for improved risk management. In addition, results obtained using real incentives and no performance-based payments are compared in the experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on data collected from 1’041 Dutch homeowners, we find that: flood probability neglect is related to anticipated regret, worry and the threshold of concern. Moreover, locus of control and regret affect probabilistic pessimism. Nevertheless, we do not observe strong evidence that incentives influence flood probability neglect nor probability weighting. The results show that low, moderate and high flood probabilities are under-weighted, which is related to framing in the flooding context and the degree of realism respondents attach to high probability property damages. We suggest several policies to overcome psychological factors related to under-weighting flood probabilities to improve flood preparations. These include policies that promote better risk communication to enhance insurance decisions for individuals with a high threshold of concern, and education and information provision to change the behaviour of internal locus of control types as well as people who see insurance as an investment. Multi-year flood insurance may also prevent short-sighted behaviour of people who have a tendency to regret paying for insurance. Moreover, bundling low-probability/high-impact risks with more immediate risks may achieve an overall covered risk which is less likely to be judged as falling below thresholds of concern. These measures could aid the development of a flood insurance market in the Netherlands for which we find to be demand.

Keywords: flood insurance demand, prospect theory, risk perceptions, risk preferences

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