Search results for: multivariate disaggregation rainfall model

Authors: Nji Queenta Ngum, Mwanza Mulunda

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Introduction Most African research reports on the frequent aflatoxin contamination of various foodstuffs, with researchers rarely specifying which of the Aspergillus species are present in these commodities. Numerous research works provide evidence of the ability of fungi to grow, thrive, and interact with other crop species and focus on the fact that these processes are largely affected by climatic variables. South Africa is a water-stressed country with high spatio-temporal rainfall variability; moreover, temperatures have been projected to rise at a rate twice the global rate. This weather pattern change may lead to crop stress encouraging mold contamination with subsequent mycotoxin production. In this study, the biodiversity and distribution of Aspergillus species with their corresponding toxins in maize from six distinct maize producing regions with different weather patterns in South Africa were investigated. Materials And Methods By applying cultural and molecular methods, a total of 1028 maize samples from six distinct agro-climatic regions were examined for contamination by the Aspergillus species while the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was applied to analyse the level of contamination by aflatoxins. Results About 30% of the overall maize samples were contaminated by at least one Aspergillus species. Less than 30% (28.95%) of the 228 isolates subjected to the aflatoxigenic test was found to possess at least one of the aflatoxin biosynthetic genes. Furthermore, almost 20% were found to be contaminated with aflatoxins, with mean total aflatoxin concentration levels of 64.17 ppb. Amongst the contaminated samples, 59.02% had mean total aflatoxin concentration levels above the SA regulatory limit of 20ppb for animals and 10 for human consumption. Conclusion In this study, climate variables (rainfall reduction) were found to significantly (p<0.001) influence the occurrence of the Aspergillus species (especially Aspergillus fumigatus) and the production of aflatoxin in South Africa commercial maize by maize variety, year of cultivation as well as the agro-climatic region in which the maize is cultivated. This included, amongst others, a reduction in the average annual rainfall of the preceding year to about 21.27 mm, and, as opposed to other regions whose average maximum rainfall ranged between 37.24 – 44.1 mm, resulted in a significant increase in the aflatoxin contamination of maize.

Keywords: aspergillus species, aflatoxins, diversity, drought, food safety, HPLC and PCR techniques

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Authors: Rouighi Mustapha, Bouzid Laghaa Souad, Rouighi Tahar

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Due to rain Shortage and the increase of population in the last years, wells excavation and groundwater use for different purposes had been increased without any planning. This is a great challenge for our country. Moreover, this scarcity of water resources in this region is unfortunately combined with rapid fresh water resources quality deterioration, due to salinity and contamination processes. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct the studies about groundwater quality in Algeria. In this work consists in the identification of the factors which influence the water quality parameters in Laghouat region by using statistical analysis Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) and geographic information system (GIS) in an attempt to discriminate the sources of the variation of water quality variations. The results of PCA technique indicate that variables responsible for water quality composition are mainly related to soluble salts variables; natural processes and the nature of the rock which modifies significantly the water chemistry. Inferred from the positive correlation between K+ and NO3-, NO3- is believed to be human induced rather than naturally originated. In this study, the multivariate statistical analysis and GIS allows the hydrogeologist to have supplementary tools in the characterization and evaluating of aquifers.

Keywords: cluster, analysis, GIS, groundwater, laghouat, quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Yinglisong, Jingge Chen, Jingxuan Chen, Yan Wang, Hui Huang, Jing Zhnag, Qianqian Zhang, Zhenzhen Zhang, Ji Zhang

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Purpose: The study aims to establish a nomogram prediction model for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in vaginal delivery. Patients and Methods: Clinical data were retrospectively collected from vaginal delivery patients admitted to a hospital in Zhengzhou, China, from June 1, 2022 - October 31, 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to filter out independent risk factors. A nomogram model was established for PPH in vaginal delivery based on the risk factors coefficient. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. To assess discrimination and calibration, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves were generated in the derivation and validation groups. Results: A total of 1340 cases of vaginal delivery were enrolled, with 81 (6.04%) having PPH. Logistic regression indicated that history of uterine surgery, induction of labor, duration of first labor, neonatal weight, WBC value (during the first stage of labor), and cervical lacerations were all independent risk factors of hemorrhage (P <0.05). The area-under-curve (AUC) of ROC curves of the derivation group and the validation group were 0.817 and 0.821, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Two calibration curves showed that nomogram prediction and practical results were highly consistent (P = 0.105, P = 0.113). Conclusion: The developed individualized risk prediction nomogram model can assist midwives in recognizing and diagnosing high-risk groups of PPH and initiating early warning to reduce PPH incidence.

Keywords: vaginal delivery, postpartum hemorrhage, risk factor, nomogram

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Abderrahmane Soufi

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The building sector is the largest consumer of energy in France, accounting for 44% of French consumption. To reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency, France implemented an energy transition law targeting 40% energy savings by 2030 in the tertiary building sector. Building simulation tools are used to predict the energy performance of buildings but the reliability of these tools is hampered by discrepancies between the real and simulated energy performance of a building. This performance gap lies in the simplified assumptions of certain factors, such as the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating, which is considered deterministic when setting a fixed operating schedule and a fixed interior comfort temperature. However, the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating is stochastic, diverse, and complex because it can be affected by many factors. Probabilistic models are an alternative to deterministic models. These models are usually derived from statistical data and express occupant behavior by assuming a probabilistic relationship to one or more variables. In the literature, logistic regression has been used to model the behavior of occupants with regard to heating and air conditioning systems by considering univariate logistic models in residential buildings; however, few studies have developed multivariate models for higher education and vocational training buildings in a Mediterranean climate. Therefore, in this study, occupant behavior on heating and air conditioning systems was modeled using logistic regression. Occupant behavior related to the turn-on heating and air conditioning systems was studied through experimental measurements collected over a period of one year (June 2023–June 2024) in three classrooms occupied by several groups of students in engineering schools and professional training. Instrumentation was provided to collect indoor temperature and indoor relative humidity in 10-min intervals. Furthermore, the state of the heating/air conditioning system (off or on) and the set point were determined. The outdoor air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were collected as weather data. The number of occupants, age, and sex were also considered. Logistic regression was used for modeling an occupant turning on the heating and air conditioning systems. The results yielded a proposed model that can be used in building simulation tools to predict the energy performance of teaching buildings. Based on the first months (summer and early autumn) of the investigations, the results illustrate that the occupant behavior of the air conditioning systems is affected by the indoor relative humidity and temperature in June, July, and August and by the indoor relative humidity, temperature, and number of occupants in September and October. Occupant behavior was analyzed monthly, and univariate and multivariate models were developed.

Keywords: occupant behavior, logistic regression, behavior model, mediterranean climate, air conditioning, heating

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Bei Zhang, Zhaoxin Zhang, Lidong Zhao

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Green infrastructures (GIs) for rainwater management can directly meet the multiple purposes of urban greening and non-point source pollution control. To reveal the overall layout law of GIs dominated by typical woody plants and their impact on urban environmental effects, we constructed a HYDRUS-1D and Stormwater management (SWMM) coupling model to simulate the response of typical root woody plant planting methods on urban hydrological. The results showed that the coupling model had high adaptability to the simulation of urban surface runoff control effect under different woody plant planting methods (NSE ≥0.64 and R² ≥ 0.71). The regulation effect on surface runoff showed that the average runoff reduction rate of GIs increased from 60 % to 71 % with the increase of planting area (5% to 25%) under the design rainfall event of the 2-year recurrence interval. Sophora japonica with tap roots was slightly higher than that of without plants (control) and Malus baccata (M. baccata) with fibrous roots. The comprehensive benefit evaluation system of rainwater utilization technology was constructed by using an analytic hierarchy process. The coupling model was used to evaluate the comprehensive benefits of woody plants with different planting areas in the study area in terms of environment, economy, and society. The comprehensive benefit value of planting 15% M. baccata was the highest, which was the first choice for the planting of woody plants in the study area. This study can provide a scientific basis for the decision-making of green facility layouts of woody plants.

Keywords: green infrastructure, comprehensive benefits, runoff regulation, woody plant layout, coupling model

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Auwal Garba, Rabiu Maijama’a, Abdullahi Muhammad Jalam

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Variability in climate has affected the agricultural production all over the globe. This concern has motivated important changes in the field of research during the last decade. Climate variability is believed to have declining effects towards rice production in Nigeria. This study examined climate variability and its impact on rice productivity in Dass Local Government Area, Bauchi State, by employing Linear Trend Model (LTM), analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression analysis. Annual seasonal data of the climatic variables for temperature (min. and max), rainfall, and solar radiation from 1990 to 2015 were used. Results confirmed that 74.4% of the total variation in rice yield in the study area was explained by the changes in the independent variables. That is to say, temperature (minimum and maximum), rainfall, and solar radiation explained rice yield with 74.4% in the study area. Rising mean maximum temperature would lead to reduction in rice production while moderate increase in mean minimum temperature would be advantageous towards rice production, and the persistent rise in the mean maximum temperature, in the long run, will have more negatively affect rice production in the future. It is, therefore, important to promote agro-meteorological advisory services, which will be useful in farm planning and yield sustainability. Closer collaboration among the meteorologist and agricultural scientist is needed to increase the awareness about the existing database, crop weather models among others, with a view to reaping the full benefits of research on specific problems and sustainable yield management and also there should be a special initiative by the ADPs (State Agricultural Development Programme) towards promoting best agricultural practices that are resilient to climate variability in rice production and yield sustainability.

Keywords: climate variability, impact, productivity, rice

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Ahmed Metawea, Rodrigo Soto, Majeida Kharejesh, Gavin Walker, Ahmad B. Albadarin

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In this study, towards a green approach, we have investigated the effect of operating conditions of solvent assessed twin-screw extruder (TSE) for the production of 4, 4-bipyridine (1-dimensional coordinated polymer (1D)) based coordinated polymer using cobalt nitrate as a metal precursor with molar ratio 1:1. Different operating parameters such as solvent percentage, screw speed and feeding rate are considered. The resultant product is characterized using offline characterization methods, namely Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), Raman spectroscopy and scanning electron microscope (SEM) in order to investigate the product purity and surface morphology. A lower feeding rate increased the product’s quality as more resident time was provided for the reaction to take place. The most important influencing factor was the amount of liquid added. The addition of water helped in facilitating the reaction inside the TSE by increasing the surface area of the reaction for particles

Keywords: MOFS, multivariate analysis, process optimization, chemometric

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Yasmeen Saleem, Pedro Berliner, Nurit Agam

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The most severe limitation for plant production in arid areas is water. Rainfall events are rare but can have pulses of high intensity. As a result, crusts are formed, which decreases infiltration into the soil, and results additionally in erosive losses of soil. Direct evaporation of water from the wetted soil can account for large fractions of the water stored in the soil. Different kinds of mulches have been used to decrease the loss of water in arid and semi-arid region. This study aims to evaluate the effect of polystyrene styrofoam pellets mulch on soil infiltration, runoff, and evaporation as a more efficient and economically viable mulch alternative. Polystyrene styrofoam pellets of two sizes (0.5 and 1 cm diameter) will be placed on top of the soil in two mulch layer depths (1 and 2 cm), in addition to the non-mulched treatment. The rainfall simulator will be used as an artificial source of rain. The preliminary results in the prototype experiment indicate that polystyrene styrofoam pellets decreased runoff, increased soil-water infiltration. We are still testing the effect of these pellets on decreasing the soil-water evaporation.

Keywords: synthetic mulch, runoff, evaporation, infiltration

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Fatima Zehra Allahverdi, Nukhet Bayer

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Objective: Three questions were formulated to examine stressful working units (intensive care units, emergency unit nurses) utilizing the self-perception theory and social support theory. This study provides a distinctive input by inspecting the combination of variables regarding stressful working environments. Method: The descriptive research was conducted with the participation of 400 nurses working at Ankara City Hospital. The study used Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA), regression analysis, and a mediation model. Hypothesis one used MANOVA followed by a Scheffe post hoc test. Hypothesis two utilized regression analysis using a hierarchical linear regression model. Hypothesis three used a mediation model. Result: The study utilized mediation analyses. Findings supported the hypotheses that intensive care units have significantly high scores in virtual communication and virtual tolerance. The number of years on the job, virtual communication, virtual tolerance, and phubbing significantly predicted 51% of the variance of perception of addiction. Interestingly, the number of years on the job, while significant, was negatively related to perception of addiction. Conclusion: The reasoning behind these findings and the lack of significance in the emergency unit is discussed. Around 7% of the variance of phubbing was accounted for through working in intensive care units. The model accounted for 26.80 % of the differences in the perception of addiction.

Keywords: phubbing, social media, working units, years on the job, stress

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Authors: Dibakar Sahoo, Sridevi Gummadi

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The focus of the study is to empirically analyse the climatic impacts on foodgrain yield and its variability across seasons and altitudes in Odisha, one of the most vulnerable states in India. The study uses Just-Pope Stochastic Production function by using two-step Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS): mean equation estimation and variance equation estimation. The study uses the panel data on foodgrain yield, rainfall and temperature for 13 districts during the period 1984-2013. The study considers four seasons: winter (December-February), summer (March-May), Rainy (June-September) and autumn (October-November). The districts under consideration have been categorized under three altitude regions such as low (< 70 masl), middle (153-305 masl) and high (>305 masl) altitudes. The results show that an increase in the standard deviations of monthly rainfall during rainy and autumn seasons have an adversely significant impact on the mean yield of foodgrains in Odisha. The summer temperature has beneficial effects by significantly increasing mean yield as the summer season is associated with harvesting stage of Rabi crops. The changing pattern of temperature has increasing effect on the yield variability of foodgrains during the summer season, whereas it has a decreasing effect on yield variability of foodgrains during the Rainy season. Moreover, the positive expected signs of trend variable in both mean and variance equation suggests that foodgrain yield and its variability increases with time. On the other hand, a change in mean levels of rainfall and temperature during different seasons has heterogeneous impacts either harmful or beneficial depending on the altitudes. These findings imply that adaptation strategies should be tailor-made to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and variability for sustainable development across seasons and altitudes in Odisha agriculture.

Keywords: altitude, adaptation strategies, climate change, foodgrain

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Anita Kushwaha

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We propose a new evolutionary computational model called Artificial Reproduction System which is based on the complex process of meiotic reproduction occurring between male and female cells of the living organisms. Artificial Reproduction System is an attempt towards a new computational intelligence approach inspired by the theoretical reproduction mechanism, observed reproduction functions, principles and mechanisms. A reproductive organism is programmed by genes and can be viewed as an automaton, mapping and reducing so as to create copies of those genes in its off springs. In Artificial Reproduction System, the binding mechanism between male and female cells is studied, parameters are chosen and a network is constructed also a feedback system for self regularization is established. The model then applies Mendel’s law of inheritance, allele-allele associations and can be used to perform data analysis of imbalanced data, multivariate, multiclass and big data. In the experimental study Artificial Reproduction System is compared with other state of the art classifiers like SVM, Radial Basis Function, neural networks, K-Nearest Neighbor for some benchmark datasets and comparison results indicates a good performance.

Keywords: bio-inspired computation, nature- inspired computation, natural computing, data mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Pius Borona, Cheikh Mbow, Issa Ouedraogo

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In the Sahel, climate variability has been associated with a complex web of direct and indirect impacts. This natural phenomenon has been an impediment to agro-pastoral communities who experience uncertainty while involving in farming activities which is also their key source of livelihood. In this scenario, the role of climate variability in influencing the performance, quantity and quality of staple cereals yields, vital for food and nutrition security has been a topic of importance. This response of crops and subsequent yield variability is also a subject of immense debate due to the complexity of crop development at different stages. This complexity is further compounded by influence of slowly changing non-climatic factors. With these challenges in mind, the present paper initially explores the occurrence of climate variability at an inter annual and inter decadal level in South Burkina Faso. This is evidenced by variation of the total annual rainfall and the number of rainy days among other climatic descriptors. Further, it is shown how district-scale cereal yields in the study area including maize, sorghum and millet casually associate variably to the inter-annual variation of selected climate variables. Statistical models show that the three cereals widely depict sensitivity to the length of the growing period and total dry days in the growing season. Maize yields on the other hand relate strongly to the rainfall amount variation (R2=51.8%) showing high moisture dependence during critical growth stages. Our conclusions emphasize on adoption of efficient water utilization platforms especially those that have evidently increased yields and strengthening of forecasts dissemination.

Keywords: climate variability, cereal yields, seasonality, rain fed farming, Burkina Faso, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Abigail Rosenberg, Jennifer Duan, Michael Poteuck, Chunshui Yu

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The Barry M. Goldwater Range, West in southwestern Arizona encompasses 2,808 square kilometers of Sonoran Desert. The hyper-arid range has an annual rainfall of less than 10 cm with an average high temperature of 41 degrees Celsius in July to an average low of 4 degrees Celsius in January. The range shares approximately 60 kilometers of the international border with Mexico. A majority of the range is open for recreational use, primarily off-highway vehicles. Because of its proximity to Mexico, the range is also heavily patrolled by U.S. Customs and Border Protection seeking to intercept and apprehend inadmissible people and illicit goods. Decades of off-roading and Border Patrol activities have negatively impacted this sensitive desert ecosystem. To assist the range program managers, this study is developing a model to identify erosion prone areas and calibrate the model’s parameters using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment modeling tool.

Keywords: arid lands, automated geospatial watershed assessment, erosion modeling, sedimentation modeling, watershed modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Peter Adly Hamdy Fahmy

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The aim of the study was to examine the effects of a physical education program on student learning by combining the teaching of personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with a physical education model and TPSR with a traditional teaching model, these learning outcomes involving self-learning. -Study. Athletic performance, enthusiasm for sport, group cohesion, sense of responsibility and game performance. The participants were 3 secondary school physical education teachers and 6 physical education classes, 133 participants with students from the experimental group with 75 students and the control group with 58 students, and each teacher taught the experimental group and the control group for 16 weeks. The research methods used surveys, interviews and focus group meetings. Research instruments included the Personal and Social Responsibility Questionnaire, Sports Enthusiasm Scale, Group Cohesion Scale, Sports Self-Efficacy Scale, and Game Performance Assessment Tool. Multivariate analyzes of covariance and repeated measures ANOVA were used to examine differences in student learning outcomes between combining the TPSR with a physical education model and the TPSR with a traditional teaching model. The research findings are as follows: 1) The TPSR sports education model can improve students' learning outcomes, including sports self-efficacy, game performance, sports enthusiasm, team cohesion, group awareness and responsibility. 2) A traditional teaching model with TPSR could improve student learning outcomes, including sports self-efficacy, responsibility, and game performance. 3) The sports education model with TPSR could improve learning outcomes more than the traditional teaching model with TPSR, including sports self-efficacy, sports enthusiasm, responsibility and game performance. 4) Based on qualitative data on teachers' and students' learning experience, the physical education model with TPSR significantly improves learning motivation, group interaction and sense of play. The results suggest that physical education with TPSR could further improve learning outcomes in the physical education program. On the other hand, the hybrid model curriculum projects TPSR - Physical Education and TPSR - Traditional Education are good curriculum projects for moral character education that can be used in school physics.

Keywords: approach competencies, physical, education, teachers employment, graduate, physical education and sport sciences, SWOT analysis character education, sport season, game performance, sport competence

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Authors: C. S. Subhashini, H. L. Premaratne

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Landslides are the most recurrent and prominent disaster in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has been subjected to a number of extreme landslide disasters that resulted in a significant loss of life, material damage, and distress. It is required to explore a solution towards preparedness and mitigation to reduce recurrent losses associated with landslides. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hidden Markov Model (HMMs) are now widely used in many computer applications spanning multiple domains. This research examines the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in landslides predictions and the possibility of applying the modern technology to predict landslides in a prominent geographical area in Sri Lanka. A thorough survey was conducted with the participation of resource persons from several national universities in Sri Lanka to identify and rank the influencing factors for landslides. A landslide database was created using existing topographic; soil, drainage, land cover maps and historical data. The landslide related factors which include external factors (Rainfall and Number of Previous Occurrences) and internal factors (Soil Material, Geology, Land Use, Curvature, Soil Texture, Slope, Aspect, Soil Drainage, and Soil Effective Thickness) are extracted from the landslide database. These factors are used to recognize the possibility to occur landslides by using an ANN and HMM. The model acquires the relationship between the factors of landslide and its hazard index during the training session. These models with landslide related factors as the inputs will be trained to predict three classes namely, ‘landslide occurs’, ‘landslide does not occur’ and ‘landslide likely to occur’. Once trained, the models will be able to predict the most likely class for the prevailing data. Finally compared two models with regards to prediction accuracy, False Acceptance Rates and False Rejection rates and This research indicates that the Artificial Neural Network could be used as a strong decision support system to predict landslides efficiently and effectively than Hidden Markov Model.

Keywords: landslides, influencing factors, neural network model, hidden markov model

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Samuel Abraham Berhane, Lingbing Bu

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This paper presents the spatiotemporal variability of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation within the major cities in Eritrea and it investigates the relationship between aerosols, clouds, and precipitation concerning the presence of aerosols over the study region. In Eritrea, inadequate water supplies will have both direct and indirect adverse impacts on sustainable development in areas such as health, agriculture, energy, communication, and transport. Besides, there exists a gap in the knowledge on suitable and potential areas for cloud seeding. Further, the inadequate understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation (ACP) interactions limits the success of weather modification aimed at improving freshwater sources, storage, and recycling. Spatiotemporal variability of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation involve spatial and time series analysis based on trend and anomaly analysis. To find the relationship between aerosols and clouds, a correlation coefficient is used. The spatiotemporal analysis showed larger variations of aerosols within the last two decades, especially in Assab, indicating that aerosol optical depth (AOD) has increased over the surrounding Red Sea region. Rainfall was significantly low but AOD was significantly high during the 2011 monsoon season. Precipitation was high during 2007 over most parts of Eritrea. The correlation coefficient between AOD and rainfall was negative over Asmara and Nakfa. Cloud effective radius (CER) and cloud optical thickness (COT) exhibited a negative correlation with AOD over Nakfa within the June–July–August (JJA) season. The hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) model that is used to find the path and origin of the air mass of the study region showed that the majority of aerosols made their way to the study region via the westerly and the southwesterly winds.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation, aerosol optical depth, cloud effective radius, cloud optical thickness, HYSPLIT

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Peter Adly Hamdy Fahmy

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to examine the effects of a physical education program on student learning by combining the teaching of personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with a physical education model and TPSR with a traditional teaching model, these learning outcomes involving self-learning. -Study. Athletic performance, enthusiasm for sport, group cohesion, sense of responsibility and game performance. The participants were 3 secondary school physical education teachers and 6 physical education classes, 133 participants with students from the experimental group with 75 students and the control group with 58 students, and each teacher taught the experimental group and the control group for 16 weeks. The research methods used surveys, interviews and focus group meetings. Research instruments included the Personal and Social Responsibility Questionnaire, Sports Enthusiasm Scale, Group Cohesion Scale, Sports Self-Efficacy Scale, and Game Performance Assessment Tool. Multivariate analyzes of covariance and repeated measures ANOVA were used to examine differences in student learning outcomes between combining the TPSR with a physical education model and the TPSR with a traditional teaching model. The research findings are as follows: 1) The TPSR sports education model can improve students' learning outcomes, including sports self-efficacy, game performance, sports enthusiasm, team cohesion, group awareness and responsibility. 2) A traditional teaching model with TPSR could improve student learning outcomes, including sports self-efficacy, responsibility, and game performance. 3) The sports education model with TPSR could improve learning outcomes more than the traditional teaching model with TPSR, including sports self-efficacy, sports enthusiasm, responsibility and game performance. 4) Based on qualitative data on teachers' and students' learning experience, the physical education model with TPSR significantly improves learning motivation, group interaction and sense of play. The results suggest that physical education with TPSR could further improve learning outcomes in the physical education program. On the other hand, the hybrid model curriculum projects TPSR - Physical Education and TPSR - Traditional Education are good curriculum projects for moral character education that can be used in school physics.

Keywords: approach competencies, physical, education, teachers employment, graduate, physical education and sport sciences, SWOT analysis character education, sport season, game performance, sport competence

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: O. P. Popoola, O. A. Alawode, M. O. Olayiwola, A. M. Oladele

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This research work is based on using discriminant analysis to forecast crime rate in Nigeria between 1996 and 2008. The work is interested in how gender (male and female) relates to offences committed against the government, against other properties, disturbance in public places, murder/robbery offences and other offences. The data used was collected from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). SPSS, the statistical package was used to analyse the data. Time plot was plotted on all the 29 offences gotten from the raw data. Eigenvalues and Multivariate tests, Wilks’ Lambda, standardized canonical discriminant function coefficients and the predicted classifications were estimated. The research shows that the distribution of the scores from each function is standardized to have a mean O and a standard deviation of 1. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate how strongly the discriminating variable affects the score. In the predicted group membership, 172 cases that were predicted to commit crime against Government group, 66 were correctly predicted and 106 were incorrectly predicted. After going through the predicted classifications, we found out that most groups numbers that were correctly predicted were less than those that were incorrectly predicted.

Keywords: discriminant analysis, DA, multivariate analysis of variance, MANOVA, canonical correlation, and Wilks’ Lambda

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Sara Zadehomidi

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Iran, a geographically arid and semi-arid country, experiences varying levels of rainfall across its territory. Five major and important rivers, namely Karun, Dez, Karkheh, Jarrahi, and Hendijan, are valuable assets of the Khuzestan province. To address various needs, including those of farmers (especially during hot seasons with no rainfall), drinking water requirements, industrial and environmental, and most importantly, electricity production, dams have been constructed on several of these rivers, with some dams still under construction. The outflow of water from dam reservoirs must be managed in a way that not only preserves the reservoir's potential effectively but also ensures the maximum revenue from electricity generation. Furthermore, it should meet the other mentioned requirements. In this study, scientific methods such as optimization using Lingo software were employed to achieve these objectives. The results, when executed and adhering to the proposed electricity production program with Lingo software, indicate a 35.7% increase in electricity sales revenue over a one-year examination period. Considering that several electricity plants are currently under construction, the importance and necessity of utilizing computer systems for expediting and optimizing the electricity generation program planning from electricity plants will become evident in the future.

Keywords: Ahvaz, electricity generation programs, Iran, optimizing

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Adamu Garba, Saidu Idi

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This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of Dermatophilosis in cattle in Bauchi State and suggest possible control measures. Data were obtained from the State Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Veterinary Division and monthly reports from Local Government Area Veterinary Offices for a period of three years ranging from 1996-1998. The result revealed that the disease is more prevalent in the rainy season which coincides with preponderance of the predisposing factors. Of the total 17,252 infected cattle in the State, Western zone had the highest cases with 8,298 (50.0%), followed by Central zone with 5,211 (30.0%) and the least was in the Northern zone with 3,753 (20.0%) cases. Rainfall pattern within the zones could be responsible for the variation in the prevalence rate. Analysis of variance revealed that there is no significant difference in the prevalence of Dermatophilosis between the years (P<0.212) while there is significant difference within the zones (P<0.012). Correlation analysis carried out showed that there is positive relationship between rainfall and Dermatophilosis (r<0.909). Since the disease is more prevalent during the rainy season, efforts should be exerted on thorough preventive measures during the period to control the disease in the State, particularly in the Western zone.

Keywords: incidence, dermatophilosis, cattle, Bauchi State

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Mohamed Aboelghar, Ayman Abou Hadid, Usama Albehairy, Asmaa Khater

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Sustainable agricultural development of the desert areas of Egypt under the pressure of irrigation water scarcity is a significant national challenge. Existing water harvesting techniques on the northwest coast of Egypt do not ensure the optimal use of rainfall for agricultural purposes. Basin-scale hydrology potentialities were studied to investigate how available annual rainfall could be used to increase agricultural production. All data related to agricultural production included in the form of geospatial layers. Thematic classification of Sentinal-2 imagery was carried out to produce the land cover and crop maps following the (FAO) system of land cover classification. Contour lines and spot height points were used to create a digital elevation model (DEM). Then, DEM was used to delineate basins, sub-basins, and water outlet points using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Arc SWAT). Main soil units of the study area identified from Land Master Plan maps. Climatic data collected from existing official sources. The amount of precipitation, surface water runoff, potential, and actual evapotranspiration for the years (2004 to 2017) shown as results of (Arc SWAT). The land cover map showed that the two tree crops (olive and fig) cover 195.8 km2 when herbaceous crops (barley and wheat) cover 154 km2. The maximum elevation was 250 meters above sea level when the lowest one was 3 meters below sea level. The study area receives a massive variable amount of precipitation; however, water harvesting methods are inappropriate to store water for purposes.

Keywords: water catchements, remote sensing, GIS, sustainable agricultural development

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Osung Im, Neha Yadav, Eui Hoon Lee, Joong Hoon Kim

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach is commonly used in lots of fields for forecasting. In water resources engineering, forecast of water level or inflow of reservoir is useful for various kind of purposes. Due to advantages of ANN, many papers were written for inflow prediction in river networks, but in this study, ANN is used in urban sewer networks. The growth of severe rain storm in Korea has increased flood damage severely, and the precipitation distribution is getting more erratic. Therefore, effective pump operation in pump station is an essential task for the reduction in urban area. If real time inflow of pump station reservoir can be predicted, it is possible to operate pump effectively for reducing the flood damage. This study used ANN model for pump station reservoir inflow prediction using upstream sewer depth data. For this study, rainfall events, sewer depth, and inflow into Banpo pump station reservoir between years of 2013-2014 were considered. Feed – Forward Back Propagation (FFBF), Cascade – Forward Back Propagation (CFBP), Elman Back Propagation (EBP) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) were used as ANN model for prediction. A comparison of results with ANN model suggests that ANN is a powerful tool for inflow prediction using the sewer depth data.

Keywords: artificial neural network, forecasting, reservoir inflow, sewer depth

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Gebremedhin Kiros, Amba Shetty, Lakshman Nandagiri

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Soil erosion is a major threat to the sustainability of land and water resources in the catchment and there is a need to identify critical areas of erosion so that suitable conservation measures may be adopted. The present study was taken up to understand the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion and daily sediment yield in Geba catchment (5137 km2) located in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Geba catchment using data pertaining to rainfall, climate, soils, topography and land use/land cover (LU/LC) for the historical period 2000-2013. LU/LC distribution in the catchment was characterized using LANDSAT satellite imagery and the GIS-based ArcSWAT version of the model. The model was calibrated and validated using sediment concentration measurements made at the catchment outlet. The catchment was divided into 13 sub-basins and based on estimated soil erosion, these were prioritized on the basis of susceptibility to soil erosion. Model results indicated that the average sediment yield estimated of the catchment was 12.23 tons/ha/yr. The generated soil loss map indicated that a large portion of the catchment has high erosion rates resulting in significantly large sediment yield at the outlet. Steep and unstable terrain, the occurrence of highly erodible soils and low vegetation cover appeared to favor high soil erosion. Results obtained from this study prove useful in adopting in targeted soil and water conservation measures and promote sustainable management of natural resources in the Geba and similar catchments in the region.

Keywords: Ethiopia, Geba catchment, MUSLE, sediment yield, SWAT Model

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Authors: Sanoj Sahu, Ramakar Jha

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Odisha (India) is in need of reliable, cost-effective power generation. A prolonged electricity crisis and increasing power demand have left over thousands of citizens without access to electricity, and much of the population suffers from sporadic outages. The purpose of this project is to build a methodology to evaluate small hydropower potential, which can be used to alleviate the Odisha’s energy problem among rural communities. This project has three major tasks: the design of a simple SHEP for a single location along a river in the Odisha; the development of water flow prediction equations through a linear regression analysis; and the design of an ArcGIS toolset to estimate the flow duration curves (FDCs) at locations where data do not exist. An explanation of the inputs to the tool, as well has how it produces a suitable output for SHEP evaluation will be presented. The paper also gives an explanation of hydroelectric power generation in the Odisha, SHEPs, and the technical and practical aspects of hydroelectric power. Till now, based on topographical and rainfall analysis we have located hundreds of sites. Further work on more number of site location and accuracy of location is to be done.

Keywords: small hydropower, ArcGIS, rainfall analysis, Odisha’s energy problem

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Authors: Leonard Chimaobi Agim, Charles Arinzechukwu Igwe, Emmanuel Uzoma Onweremadu, Gabreil Osuji

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Soil erosion has been linked to stream sedimentation, ecosystem degradation, and loss of soil nutrients. A study was conducted to evaluate the effect of some organic amendment on sediment yield, splash loss, and runoff of soils of selected parent materials in southeastern Nigeria. A total of 20 locations, five from each of four parent materials namely: Asu River Group (ARG), Bende Ameki Group (BAG), Coastal Plain Sand (CPS) and Falsebedded Sandstone (FBS) were used for the study. Collected soil samples were analyzed with standard methods for the initial soil properties. Rainfall simulation at an intensity of 190 mm hr-1was conducted for 30 minutes on the soil samples at both the initial stage and after amendment to obtain erosion parameters. The influence of parent material on sediment yield, splash loss and runoff based on rainfall simulation was tested for using one way analyses of variance, while the influence of organic material and their combinations were a factorially fitted in a randomized complete block design. The organic amendments include; goat dropping (GD), poultry dropping (PD), municipal solid waste (MSW) and their combinations (COA) applied at four rates of 0, 10, 20 and 30 t ha-1 respectively. Data were analyzed using analyses of variance suitable for a factorial experiment. Significant means were separated using LSD at 5 % probability levels. Result showed significant (p ≤ 0.05) lower values of sediment yield, splash loss and runoff following amendment. For instance, organic amendment reduced sediment yield under wet and dry runs by 12.91 % and 26.16% in Ishiagu, 40.76% and 45.67%, in Bende, 16.17% and 50% in Obinze and 22.80% and 42.35% in Umulolo respectively. Goat dropping and combination of amendment gave the best results in reducing sediment yield.

Keywords: organic amendment, parent material, rainfall simulation, soil erosion

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Authors: G. Julius P. Roy, Prateek Saxena, Sanjeev Singh

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Power distribution utilities two decades ago would collect data from its customers not later than a period of at least one month. The origin of SmartGrid and AMI has subsequently increased the sampling frequency leading to 1000 to 10000 fold increase in data quantity. This increase is notable and this steered to coin the tern Big Data in utilities. Power distribution industry is one of the largest to handle huge and complex data for keeping history and also to turn the data in to significance. Majority of the utilities around the globe are adopting SmartGrid technologies as a mass implementation and are primarily focusing on strategic interdependence and synergies of the big data coming from new information sources like AMI and intelligent SCADA, there is a rising need for new models of data management and resurrected focus on analytics to dissect data into descriptive, predictive and dictatorial subsets. The goal of this paper is to is to bring load disaggregation into smart energy toolkit for commercial usage.

Keywords: data management, analytics, energy data analytics, smart grid, smart utilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 756

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

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Authors: Zulkifli Yusop

Abstract:

The severity of December 2014 flood on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia has raised concern over the adequacy of existing land use practices and policies. This article assesses flood responses to selective logging, plantation establishment (oil palm and rubber) and their subsequent management regimes. The hydrological impacts were evaluated on two levels: on-site (mostly in the upstream) and off-site to reflect the cumulative impact at downstream. Results of experimental catchment studies suggest that on-site impact of flood could be kept to a minimum when selecting logging strictly adhere to the existing guidelines. However, increases in flood potential and sedimentation rate were observed with logging intensity and slope steepness. Forest conversion to plantation show the highest impacts. Except on the heavily compacted surfaces, the ground revegetation is usually rapid within two years upon the cessation of the logging operation. The hydrological impacts of plantation opening and replanting could be significantly reduced once the cover crop has fully established which normally takes between three to six months after sowing. However, as oil palms become taller and the canopy gets closer, the cover crop tends to die off due to light competition, and its protecting function gradually diminishes. The exposed soil is further compacted by harvesting machinery which subsequently leads to greater overland flow and erosion rates. As such, the hydrological properties of matured oil palm plantations are generally poorer than in young plantation. In hilly area, the undergrowth in rubber plantation is usually denser compared to under oil palm. The soil under rubber trees is also less compacted as latex collection is done manually. By considering the cumulative effects of land-use over space and time, selective logging seems to pose the least impact on flood potential, followed by planting rubber for latex, oil palm and Latex Timber Clone (LTC). The cumulative hydrological impact of LTC plantation is the most severe because of its shortest replanting rotation (12 to 15 years) compared to oil palm (25 years) and rubber for latex (35 years). Furthermore, the areas gazetted for LTC are mostly located on steeper slopes which are more susceptible to landslide and erosion. Forest has limited capability to store excess rainfall and is only effective in attenuating regular floods. Once the hydrologic storage is exceeded, the excess rainfall will appear as flood water. Therefore, for big floods, rainfall regime has a much bigger influence than land use.

Keywords: selective logging, plantation, extreme rainfall, debris flow

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

Abstract:

The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Seema Paul, Jesper Oppelstrup, Roger Thunvik, Vladimir Cvetkovic

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Lake Victoria is the second largest fresh water body in the world, located in East Africa with a catchment area of 250,000 km², of which 68,800 km² is the actual lake surface. The hydrodynamic processes of the shallow (40–80 m deep) water system are unique due to its location at the equator, which makes Coriolis effects weak. The paper describes a St.Venant shallow water model of Lake Victoria developed in COMSOL Multiphysics software, a general purpose finite element tool for solving partial differential equations. Depth soundings taken in smaller parts of the lake were combined with recent more extensive data to resolve the discrepancies of the lake shore coordinates. The topography model must have continuous gradients, and Delaunay triangulation with Gaussian smoothing was used to produce the lake depth model. The model shows large-scale flow patterns, passive tracer concentration and water level variations in response to river and tracer inflow, rain and evaporation, and wind stress. Actual data of precipitation, evaporation, in- and outflows were applied in a fifty-year simulation model. It should be noted that the water balance is dominated by rain and evaporation and model simulations are validated by Matlab and COMSOL. The model conserves water volume, the celerity gradients are very small, and the volume flow is very slow and irrotational except at river mouths. Numerical experiments show that the single outflow can be modelled by a simple linear control law responding only to mean water level, except for a few instances. Experiments with tracer input in rivers show very slow dispersion of the tracer, a result of the slow mean velocities, in turn, caused by the near-balance of rain with evaporation. The numerical and hydrodynamical model can evaluate the effects of wind stress which is exerted by the wind on the lake surface that will impact on lake water level. Also, model can evaluate the effects of the expected climate change, as manifest in changes to rainfall over the catchment area of Lake Victoria in the future.

Keywords: bathymetry, lake flow and steady state analysis, water level validation and concentration, wind stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 194