Search results for: moments estimator
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 516

Search results for: moments estimator

276 Integrative System of GDP, Emissions, Health Services and Population Health in Vietnam: Dynamic Panel Data Estimation

Authors: Ha Hai Duong, Amnon Levy Livermore, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, Oleg Yerokhin

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The issues of economic development, the environment and human health have been investigated since 1990s. Previous researchers have found different empirical evidences of the relationship between income and environmental pollution, health as determinant of economic growth, and the effects of income and environmental pollution on health in various regions of the world. This paper concentrates on integrative relationship analysis of GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and health services and population health in context of Vietnam. We applied the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on datasets of Vietnam’s sixty-three provinces for the years 2000-2010. Our results show the significant positive effect of GDP on emissions and the dependence of population health on emissions and health services. We find the significant relationship between population health and GDP. Additionally, health services are significantly affected by population health and GDP. Finally, the population size too is other important determinant of both emissions and GDP.

Keywords: economic development, emissions, environmental pollution, health

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275 Computing Transition Intensity Using Time-Homogeneous Markov Jump Process: Case of South African HIV/AIDS Disposition

Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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274 An Improved Amplified Sway Method for Semi-Rigidly Jointed Sway Frames

Authors: Abdul Hakim Chikho

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A simple method of calculating satisfactory of the effect of instability on the distribution of in-plane bending moments in unbraced semi-rigidly multistory steel framed structures is presented in this paper. This method, which is a modified form of the current amplified sway method of BS5950: part1:2000, uses an approximate load factor at elastic instability in each storey of a frame which in turn dependent up on the axial loads acting in the columns. The calculated factors are then used to represent the geometrical deformations due to the presence of axial loads, acting in that storey. Only a first order elastic analysis is required to accomplish the calculation. Comparison of the prediction of the proposed method and the current BS5950 amplified sway method with an accurate second order elastic computation shows that the proposed method leads to predictions which are markedly more accurate than the current approach of BS5950.

Keywords: improved amplified sway method, steel frames, semi-rigid connections, secondary effects

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273 The Application of the Analytic Basis Function Expansion Triangular-z Nodal Method for Neutron Diffusion Calculation

Authors: Kunpeng Wang, Hongchun, Wu, Liangzhi Cao, Chuanqi Zhao

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The distributions of homogeneous neutron flux within a node were expanded into a set of analytic basis functions which satisfy the diffusion equation at any point in a triangular-z node for each energy group, and nodes were coupled with each other with both the zero- and first-order partial neutron current moments across all the interfaces of the triangular prism at the same time. Based this method, a code TABFEN has been developed and applied to solve the neutron diffusion equation in a complicated geometry. In addition, after a series of numerical derivation, one can get the neutron adjoint diffusion equations in matrix form which is the same with the neutron diffusion equation; therefore, it can be solved by TABFEN, and the low-high scan strategy is adopted to improve the efficiency. Four benchmark problems are tested by this method to verify its feasibility, the results show good agreement with the references which demonstrates the efficiency and feasibility of this method.

Keywords: analytic basis function expansion method, arbitrary triangular-z node, adjoint neutron flux, complicated geometry

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272 Effect of Radioprotectors on DNA Repair Enzyme and Survival of Gamma-Irradiated Cell Division Cycle Mutants of Saccharomyces pombe

Authors: Purva Nemavarkar, Badri Narain Pandey, Jitendra Kumar

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Introduction: The objective was to understand the effect of various radioprotectors on DNA damage repair enzyme and survival in gamma-irradiated wild and cdc mutants of S. pombe (fission yeast) cultured under permissive and restrictive conditions. DNA repair process, as influenced by radioprotectors, was measured by activity of DNA polymerase in the cells. The use of single cell gel electrophoresis assay (SCGE) or Comet Assay to follow gamma-irradiation induced DNA damage and effect of radioprotectors was employed. In addition, studying the effect of caffeine at different concentrations on S-phase of cell cycle was also delineated. Materials and Methods: S. pombe cells grown at permissive temperature (250C) and/or restrictive temperature (360C) were followed by gamma-radiation. Percentage survival and activity of DNA Polymerase (yPol II) were determined after post-irradiation incubation (5 h) with radioprotectors such as Caffeine, Curcumin, Disulphiram, and Ellagic acid (the dose depending on individual D 37 values). The gamma-irradiated yeast cells (with and without the radioprotectors) were spheroplasted by enzyme glusulase and subjected to electrophoresis. Radio-resistant cells were obtained by arresting cells in S-phase using transient treatment of hydroxyurea (HU) and studying the effect of caffeine at different concentrations on S-phase of cell cycle. Results: The mutants of S. pombe showed insignificant difference in survival when grown under permissive conditions. However, growth of these cells under restrictive temperature leads to arrest in specific phases of cell cycle in different cdc mutants (cdc10: G1 arrest, cdc22: early S arrest, cdc17: late S arrest, cdc25: G2 arrest). All the cdc mutants showed decrease in survival after gamma radiation when grown at permissive and restrictive temperatures. Inclusion of the radioprotectors at respective concentrations during post irradiation incubation showed increase in survival of cells. Activity of DNA polymerase enzyme (yPol II) was increased significantly in cdc mutant cells exposed to gamma-radiation. Following SCGE, a linear relationship was observed between doses of irradiation and the tail moments of comets. The radioprotection of the fission yeast by radioprotectors can be seen by the reduced tail moments of the yeast comets. Caffeine also exhibited its radio-protective ability in radio-resistant S-phase cells obtained after HU treatment. Conclusions: The radioprotectors offered notable radioprotection in cdc mutants when added during irradiation. The present study showed activation of DNA damage repair enzyme (yPol II) and an increase in survival after treatment of radioprotectors in gamma irradiated wild type and cdc mutants of S. pombe cells. Results presented here showed feasibility of applying SCGE in fission yeast to follow DNA damage and radioprotection at high doses, which are not feasible with other eukaryotes. Inclusion of caffeine at 1mM concentration to S phase cells offered protection and did not decrease the cell viability. It can be proved that at minimal concentration, caffeine offered marked radioprotection.

Keywords: radiation protection, cell cycle, fission yeast, comet assay, s-phase, DNA repair, radioprotectors, caffeine, curcumin, SCGE

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271 Studies of Substituent and Solvent Effect on Spectroscopic Properties Of 6-OH-4-CH3, 7-OH-4-CH3 and 7-OH-4-CF3 Coumarin

Authors: Sanjay Kumar

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This paper reports the solvent effects on the electronic absorption and fluorescence emission spectra of 6-OH-4-CH3, 7-OH-4-CH3 and 7-OH-4-CF3 coumarin derivatives having -OH, -CH3 and -CF3 substituent at different positions in various solvents (Polar and Non-Polar). The first excited singlet state dipole moment and ground state dipole moment were calculated using Bakhshiev, Kawski-Chamma-Viallet and Reichardt-Dimroth equations and were compared for all the coumarin studied. In all cases the dipole moments were found to be higher in the excited singlet state than in the ground state indicating a substantial redistribution of Π-electron density in the excited state. The angle between the excited singlet state and ground state dipole moment is also calculated. The red shift of the absorption and fluorescence emission bands, observed for all the coumarin studied upon increasing the solvent polarity indicating that the electronic transitions were Π → Π* nature.

Keywords: coumarin, solvent effects, absorption spectra, emission spectra, excited singlet state dipole moment, ground state dipole moment, solvatochromism

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270 A Computational Diagnostics for Dielectric Barrier Discharge Plasma

Authors: Zainab D. Abd Ali, Thamir H. Khalaf

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In this paper, the characteristics of electric discharge in gap between two (parallel-plate) dielectric plates are studies, the gap filled with Argon gas in atm pressure at ambient temperature, the thickness of gap typically less than 1 mm and dielectric may be up 10 cm in diameter. One of dielectric plates a sinusoidal voltage is applied with Rf frequency, the other plates is electrically grounded. The simulation in this work depending on Boltzmann equation solver in first few moments, fluid model and plasma chemistry, in one dimensional modeling. This modeling have insight into characteristics of Dielectric Barrier Discharge through studying properties of breakdown of gas, electric field, electric potential, and calculating electron density, mean electron energy, electron current density ,ion current density, total plasma current density. The investigation also include: 1. The influence of change in thickness of gap between two plates if we doubled or reduced gap to half. 2. The effect of thickness of dielectric plates. 3. The influence of change in type and properties of dielectric material (gass, silicon, Teflon).

Keywords: computational diagnostics, Boltzmann equation, electric discharge, electron density

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269 Self-Organizing Map Network for Wheeled Robot Movement Optimization

Authors: Boguslaw Schreyer

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The paper investigates the application of the Kohonen’s Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to the wheeled robot starting and braking dynamic states. In securing wheeled robot stability as well as minimum starting and braking time, it is important to ensure correct torque distribution as well as proper slope of braking and driving moments. In this paper, a correct movement distribution has been formulated, securing optimum adhesion coefficient and good transversal stability of a wheeled robot. A neural tuner has been proposed to secure the above properties, although most of the attention is attached to the SOM network application. If the delay of the torque application or torque release is not negligible, it is important to change the rising and falling slopes of the torque. The road/surface condition is also paramount in robot dynamic states control. As the road conditions may randomly change in time, application of the SOM network has been suggested in order to classify the actual road conditions.

Keywords: slip control, SOM network, torque distribution, wheeled Robot

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268 Morphometry of Cervical Spinal Cord in Rabbit Using Design-Based Stereology

Authors: Hamed Chavoshi Pour, Javad Sadeghinejad

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The spinal cord is a long structure that starts at the end of the medulla oblongata and is located within the vertebral canal. Physiologically, the spinal cord connects the brain with the peripheral nervous system for sensory and motor activities. The cervical spinal cord is an area of particular interest in medicine and veterinary medicine due to the high prevalence of diseases in this region. This study describes the morphometric features of the cervical spinal cord in rabbits using design-unbiased stereology. The cervical spinal cords of five male rabbits were dissected, and slabs were taken according to systematic uniform random sampling. Each slab was embedded in paraffin and cut into a 6-µm thick section, and stained with cresyl violet 0.1% for stereological estimations. The total spinal cord volume, volume fraction of grey and white matter, and also dorsal and ventral horns were estimated using point counting and Cavalieri's estimator. The total cervical spinal cord volume was 0.98 ± 0.07 cm³. The relative volume of white matter and grey matter was 70.6 ± 1.7% and 29.31 ± 1.67%, respectively. The dorsal horn and ventral horn volume were 13.86 ± 1.36% and 14.9 ± 0.62% of the whole cervical spinal cord. This knowledge of rabbit spinal cord findings may serve as a foundation for a translational model in spinal cord experimental research and provide basic findings for the diagnosis and treatment of spinal cord disorders.

Keywords: stereology, spinal cord, rabbit, cervical

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267 Cantilever Secant Pile Constructed in Sand: Capping Beam-Piles Bending Moments Interaction

Authors: Khaled R. Khater

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this paper is an extension to previously published two papers; all share the first part of their titles. The papers theme is soil-structure interaction in the ground of soil retaining structures. The secant pile wall is the concern, while the focus is its capping beam. The earlier papers suggested a technique to structurally analyze capping beam. It has been proved that; pile rigidity shares the capping beam rigidity to resist the wall deformations. The current paper explains how the beam-pile integration re-distributes the pile’s bending moment for the benefits of wall deformations. It is concluded that re-distribution of pile bending moment is completely different than the calculated by plain strain analysis, values, and distributions. The pile diameter, beam rigidity, pile spacing, and the 3D-analysis-effect individually or all together affect the pile bending moment. The Plaxis-2D and STAAD-Pro 3D are the used software’s. Throughout this study, three sand densities, various pile and beam rigidities, and three excavation depths, i.e., 3.0-m, 4.0-m and 5.0-m have been considered.

Keywords: bending moment, capping beam, numerical analysis, secant pile, sandy soil

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266 Maternal Health Outcome and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

Authors: Okwan Frank

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Maternal health outcome is one of the major population development challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region has the highest maternal mortality ratio, despite the progressive economic growth in the region during the global economic crisis. It has been hypothesized that increase in economic growth will reduce the level of maternal mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of the negative relationship between health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used the Pooled Mean Group estimator of ARDL Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Kao test for cointegration to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between maternal mortality and economic growth. The results of the cointegration test showed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables considered for the study. The long-run result of the Pooled Mean group estimates confirmed the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between maternal health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth proxy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Thus increasing economic growth by investing in the health care systems to reduce pregnancy and childbirth complications will help reduce maternal mortality in the sub-region.

Keywords: economic growth, maternal mortality, pool mean group, Sub-Saharan Africa

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265 Running the Athena Vortex Lattice Code in JAVA through the Java Native Interface

Authors: Paul Okonkwo, Howard Smith

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This paper describes a methodology to integrate the Athena Vortex Lattice Aerodynamic Software for automated operation in a multivariate optimisation of the Blended Wing Body Aircraft. The Athena Vortex Lattice code developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology allows for the aerodynamic analysis of aircraft using the vortex lattice method. Ordinarily, the Athena Vortex Lattice operation requires a text file containing the aircraft geometry to be loaded into the AVL solver in order to determine the aerodynamic forces and moments. However, automated operation will be required to enable integration into a multidisciplinary optimisation framework. Automated AVL operation within the JAVA design environment will nonetheless require a modification and recompilation of AVL source code into an executable file capable of running on windows and other platforms without the –X11 libraries. This paper describes the procedure for the integrating the FORTRAN written AVL software for automated operation within the multivariate design synthesis optimisation framework for the conceptual design of the BWB aircraft.

Keywords: aerodynamics, automation, optimisation, AVL, JNI

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264 Identification of Shocks from Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures

Authors: Margarita Grushanina

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After several prominent central banks including European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve System (Fed), Bank of Japan and Bank of England employed unconventional monetary policies in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 the problem of identification of the effects from such policies became of great interest. One of the main difficulties in identification of shocks from unconventional monetary policy measures in structural VAR analysis is that they often are anticipated, which leads to a non-fundamental MA representation of the VAR model. Moreover, the unconventional monetary policy actions may indirectly transmit to markets information about the future stance of the interest rate, which raises a question of the plausibility of the assumption of orthogonality between shocks from unconventional and conventional policy measures. This paper offers a method of identification that takes into account the abovementioned issues. The author uses factor-augmented VARs to increase the information set and identification through heteroskedasticity of error terms and rank restrictions on the errors’ second moments’ matrix to deal with the cross-correlation of the structural shocks.

Keywords: factor-augmented VARs, identification through heteroskedasticity, monetary policy, structural VARs

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263 Chaotic Semiflows with General Acting Topological Monoids

Authors: Alica Miller

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A semiflow is a triple consisting of a Hausdorff topological space $X$, a commutative topological monoid $T$ and a continuous monoid action of $T$ on $X$. The acting monoid $T$ is usually either the discrete monoid $\N_0$ of nonnegative integers (in which case the semiflow can be defined as a pair $(X,f)$ consisting of a phase space $X$ and a continuous function $f:X\to X$), or the monoid $\R_+$ of nonnegative real numbers (the so-called one-parameter monoid). However, it turns out that there are real-life situations where it is useful to consider the acting monoids that are a combination of discrete and continuous monoids. That, for example, happens, when we are observing certain dynamical system at discrete moments, but after some time realize that it would be beneficial to continue our observations in real time. The acting monoid in that case would be $T=\{0, t_0, 2t_0, \dots, (n-1)t_0\} \cup [nt_0,\infty)$ with the operation and topology induced from real numbers. This partly explains the motivation for the level of generality which is pursued in our research. We introduce the PSP monoids, which include all but ``pathological'' monoids, and most of our statements hold for them. The topic of our presentation are some recent results about chaos-related properties in semiflows, indecomposability and sensitivity of semiflows in the described general context.

Keywords: chaos, indecomposability, PSP monoids, semiflow, sensitivity

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262 Environmental, Climate Change, and Health Outcomes in the World

Authors: Felix Aberu

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The high rate of greenhouse gas (CO₂) emission and increased concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere are not unconnected to both human and natural activities. This has caused climate change and global warming in the world. The adverse effect of these climatic changes has no doubt threatened human existence. Hence, this study examined the effects of environmental and climate influence on mortality and morbidity rates, with particular reference to the world’s leading CO₂ emission countries, using both the pre-estimation, estimation, and post-estimation techniques for more dependable outcomes. Hence, the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) was adopted as the main estimation technique for the data analysis from 1996 to 2023. The coefficient of carbon emissions confirmed a positive and significant relationship among CO₂ emission, mortality, and morbidity rates in the world’s leading CO₂ emissions countries, which implies that carbon emission has contributed to mortality and morbidity rates in the world. Therefore, significant action should be taken to facilitate the expansion of environmental protection and sustainability initiatives in any CO₂ emissions nations of the world.

Keywords: environmental, mortality, morbidity, health outcomes, carbon emissions

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261 Free Vibration Analysis of Conical Helicoidal Rods Having Elliptical Cross Sections Positioned in Different Orientation

Authors: Merve Ermis, Akif Kutlu, Nihal Eratlı, Mehmet H. Omurtag

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In this study, the free vibration analysis of conical helicoidal rods with two different elliptically oriented cross sections is investigated and the results are compared by the circular cross-section keeping the net area for all cases equal to each other. Problems are solved by using the mixed finite element formulation. Element matrices based on Timoshenko beam theory are employed. The finite element matrices are derived by directly inserting the analytical expressions (arc length, curvature, and torsion) defining helix geometry into the formulation. Helicoidal rod domain is discretized by a two-noded curvilinear element. Each node of the element has 12 DOFs, namely, three translations, three rotations, two shear forces, one axial force, two bending moments and one torque. A parametric study is performed to investigate the influence of elliptical cross sectional geometry and its orientation over the natural frequencies of the conical type helicoidal rod.

Keywords: conical helix, elliptical cross section, finite element, free vibration

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260 High Performance of Direct Torque and Flux Control of a Double Stator Induction Motor Drive with a Fuzzy Stator Resistance Estimator

Authors: K. Kouzi

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In order to have stable and high performance of direct torque and flux control (DTFC) of double star induction motor drive (DSIM), proper on-line adaptation of the stator resistance is very important. This is inevitably due to the variation of the stator resistance during operating conditions, which introduces error in estimated flux position and the magnitude of the stator flux. Error in the estimated stator flux deteriorates the performance of the DTFC drive. Also, the effect of error in estimation is very important especially at low speed. Due to this, our aim is to overcome the sensitivity of the DTFC to the stator resistance variation by proposing on-line fuzzy estimation stator resistance. The fuzzy estimation method is based on an on-line stator resistance correction through the variations of the stator current estimation error and its variations. The fuzzy logic controller gives the future stator resistance increment at the output. The main advantage of the suggested algorithm control is to avoid the drive instability that may occur in certain situations and ensure the tracking of the actual stator resistance. The validity of the technique and the improvement of the whole system performance are proved by the results.

Keywords: direct torque control, dual stator induction motor, Fuzzy Logic estimation, stator resistance adaptation

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259 Project Financing and Poverty Trends in the Islamic Development Bank Member Countries

Authors: Sennanda Musa, Ahmed Mutunzi Kitunzi, Gerald Kasigwa, Ismail Kintu

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This paper is an analysis of the empirical relationship between project financing by Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the poverty trends in the context of countries benefiting from IsDB. Specifically, the study seeks to find out whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the project financing dollar amounts by IsDB (PF) and the GNI Per Capita, PPP of 57 countries for the years 2002 to 2021. The research is a longitudinal, desk-top triangulation of correlation, regression, hypothesis-testing employing the linear dynamic panel data GMM model as an estimator of the empirical relationships between the key variables of the study. The study results show that there is a significant positive relationship between the PF dollar amounts from the IsDB and the GNI Per Capita, PPP in these 57 countries. Therefore, countries that receive higher PF dollar amounts from the IsDB, generally have more GNI Per Capita, PPP (less poverty) than their counterparts. It is, therefore, recommendable for countries to formulate policies that facilitate Islamically financed projects to mitigate poverty. This paper develops policy discussions regarding allocation of political attention to the policy topics on poverty mitigation, and their relation to financing projects Islamically, thus generate information on policy choices regarding the Islamic financing alternative.

Keywords: gross-national-income, IsDB-project-financing, public policy, poverty

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258 Group Sequential Covariate-Adjusted Response Adaptive Designs for Survival Outcomes

Authors: Yaxian Chen, Yeonhee Park

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Driven by evolving FDA recommendations, modern clinical trials demand innovative designs that strike a balance between statistical rigor and ethical considerations. Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs bridge this gap by utilizing patient attributes and responses to skew treatment allocation in favor of the treatment that is best for an individual patient’s profile. However, existing CARA designs for survival outcomes often hinge on specific parametric models, constraining their applicability in clinical practice. In this article, we address this limitation by introducing a CARA design for survival outcomes (CARAS) based on the Cox model and a variance estimator. This method addresses issues of model misspecification and enhances the flexibility of the design. We also propose a group sequential overlapweighted log-rank test to preserve type I error rate in the context of group sequential trials using extensive simulation studies to demonstrate the clinical benefit, statistical efficiency, and robustness to model misspecification of the proposed method compared to traditional randomized controlled trial designs and response-adaptive randomization designs.

Keywords: cox model, log-rank test, optimal allocation ratio, overlap weight, survival outcome

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257 2D CFD-PBM Coupled Model of Particle Growth in an Industrial Gas Phase Fluidized Bed Polymerization Reactor

Authors: H. Kazemi Esfeh, V. Akbari, M. Ehdaei, T. N. G. Borhani, A. Shamiri, M. Najafi

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In an industrial fluidized bed polymerization reactor, particle size distribution (PSD) plays a significant role in the reactor efficiency evaluation. The computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models coupled with population balance equation (CFD-PBM) have been extensively employed to investigate the flow behavior in the poly-disperse multiphase fluidized bed reactors (FBRs) utilizing ANSYS Fluent code. In this study, an existing CFD-PBM/ DQMOM coupled modeling framework has been used to highlight its potential to analyze the industrial-scale gas phase polymerization reactor. The predicted results reveal an acceptable agreement with the observed industrial data in terms of pressure drop and bed height. The simulated results also indicate that the higher particle growth rate can be achieved for bigger particles. Hence, the 2D CFD-PBM/DQMOM coupled model can be used as a reliable tool for analyzing and improving the design and operation of the gas phase polymerization FBRs.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, population balance equation, fluidized bed polymerization reactor, direct quadrature method of moments

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256 Evaluating Forecasts Through Stochastic Loss Order

Authors: Wilmer Osvaldo Martinez, Manuel Dario Hernandez, Juan Manuel Julio

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We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through stochastic loss order rather than expected loss order, which is the way it is customarily performed in previous work. Moreover, since forecast performance evaluation can be understood as a one way analysis of variance, we propose to explore loss distributions under two circumstances; when a strict (but unknown) joint stochastic order exists among the losses of all forecast alternatives, and when such order happens among subsets of alternative procedures. In spite of the fact that loss stochastic order is stronger than loss moment order, our proposals are at least as powerful as competing tests, and are robust to the correlation, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity settings they consider. In addition, since our proposals do not require samples of the same size, their scope is also wider, and provided that they test the whole loss distribution instead of just loss moments, they can also be used to study forecast distributions as well. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposals by evaluating a set of real world forecasts.

Keywords: forecast evaluation, stochastic order, multiple comparison, non parametric test

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255 A Peg Board with Photo-Reflectors to Detect Peg Insertion and Pull-Out Moments

Authors: Hiroshi Kinoshita, Yasuto Nakanishi, Ryuhei Okuno, Toshio Higashi

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Various kinds of pegboards have been developed and used widely in research and clinics of rehabilitation for evaluation and training of patient’s hand function. A common measure in these peg boards is a total time of performance execution assessed by a tester’s stopwatch. Introduction of electrical and automatic measurement technology to the apparatus, on the other hand, has been delayed. The present work introduces the development of a pegboard with an electric sensor to detect moments of individual peg’s insertion and removal. The work also gives fundamental data obtained from a group of healthy young individuals who performed peg transfer tasks using the pegboard developed. Through trails and errors in pilot tests, two 10-hole peg-board boxes installed with a small photo-reflector and a DC amplifier at the bottom of each hole were designed and built by the present authors. The amplified electric analogue signals from the 20 reflectors were automatically digitized at 500 Hz per channel, and stored in a PC. The boxes were set on a test table at different distances (25, 50, 75, and 125 mm) in parallel to examine the effect of hole-to-hole distance. Fifty healthy young volunteers (25 in each gender) as subjects of the study performed successive fast 80 time peg transfers at each distance using their dominant and non-dominant hands. The data gathered showed a clear-cut light interruption/continuation moment by the pegs, allowing accurately (no tester’s error involved) and precisely (an order of milliseconds) to determine the pull out and insertion times of each peg. This further permitted computation of individual peg movement duration (PMD: from peg-lift-off to insertion) apart from hand reaching duration (HRD: from peg insertion to lift-off). An accidental drop of a peg led to an exceptionally long ( < mean + 3 SD) PMD, which was readily detected from an examination of data distribution. The PMD data were commonly right-skewed, suggesting that the median can be a better estimate of individual PMD than the mean. Repeated measures ANOVA using the median values revealed significant hole-to-hole distance, and hand dominance effects, suggesting that these need to be fixed in the accurate evaluation of PMD. The gender effect was non-significant. Performance consistency was also evaluated by the use of quartile variation coefficient values, which revealed no gender, hole-to-hole, and hand dominance effects. The measurement reliability was further examined using interclass correlation obtained from 14 subjects who performed the 25 and 125 mm hole distance tasks at two 7-10 days separate test sessions. Inter-class correlation values between the two tests showed fair reliability for PMD (0.65-0.75), and for HRD (0.77-0.94). We concluded that a sensor peg board developed in the present study could provide accurate (excluding tester’s errors), and precise (at a millisecond rate) time information of peg movement separated from that used for hand movement. It could also easily detect and automatically exclude erroneous execution data from his/her standard data. These would lead to a better evaluation of hand dexterity function compared to the widely used conventional used peg boards.

Keywords: hand, dexterity test, peg movement time, performance consistency

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254 Study of the Best Algorithm to Estimate Sunshine Duration from Global Radiation on Horizontal Surface for Tropical Region

Authors: Tovondahiniriko Fanjirindratovo, Olga Ramiarinjanahary, Paulisimone Rasoavonjy

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The sunshine duration, which is the sum of all the moments when the solar beam radiation is up to a minimal value, is an important parameter for climatology, tourism, agriculture and solar energy. Its measure is usually given by a pyrheliometer installed on a two-axis solar tracker. Due to the high cost of this device and the availability of global radiation on a horizontal surface, on the other hand, several studies have been done to make a correlation between global radiation and sunshine duration. Most of these studies are fitted for the northern hemisphere using a pyrheliometric database. The aim of the present work is to list and assess all the existing methods and apply them to Reunion Island, a tropical region in the southern hemisphere. Using a database of ten years, global, diffuse and beam radiation for a horizontal surface are employed in order to evaluate the uncertainty of existing algorithms for a tropical region. The methodology is based on indirect comparison because the solar beam radiation is not measured but calculated by the beam radiation on a horizontal surface and the sun elevation angle.

Keywords: Carpentras method, data fitting, global radiation, sunshine duration, Slob and Monna algorithm, step algorithm

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253 Fiscal Size and Composition Effects on Growth: Empirical Evidence from Asian Economies

Authors: Jeeban Amgain

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This paper investigates the impact of the size and composition of government expenditure and tax on GDP per capita growth in 36 Asian economies over the period of 1991-2012. The research employs the technique of panel regression; Fixed Effects and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as well as other statistical and descriptive approaches. The finding concludes that the size of government expenditure and tax revenue are generally low in this region. GDP per capita growth is strongly negative in response to Government expenditure, however, no significant relationship can be measured in case of size of taxation although it is positively correlated with economic growth. Panel regression of decomposed fiscal components also shows that the pattern of allocation of expenditure and taxation really matters on growth. Taxes on international trade and property have a significant positive impact on growth. In contrast, a major portion of expenditure, i.e. expenditure on general public services, health and education are found to have significant negative impact on growth, implying that government expenditures are not being productive in the Asian region for some reasons. Comparatively smaller and efficient government size would enhance the growth.

Keywords: government expenditure, tax, GDP per capita growth, composition

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252 Observations of Conformity in the Health Professions

Authors: Tanya Beran, Michelle Drefs, Ghazwan Altabbaa, Nouf Al Harbi, Noof Al Baz, Elizabeth Oddone Paolucci

Abstract:

Although research shows that interprofessional practice has desirable effects on patient care, its implementation can present challenges to its team members. In particular, they may feel pressured to agree with or conform to other members who share information that is contrary to their own understanding. Obtaining evidence of this phenomenon is challenging, as team members may underreport their conformity behaviors due to reasons such as social desirability. In this paper, a series of studies are reviewed in which several approaches to assessing conformity in the health care professions are tested. Simulations, questionnaires, and behavior checklists were developed to measure conformity behaviors. Insights from these studies show that a significant proportion of people conform either in the presence or absence of others, express a variety of verbal and nonverbal behaviors when considering whether to conform to others, may shift between conforming and moments later not conforming (and vice versa), and may not accurately report whether they conformed. A new method of measuring conformity using the implicit bias test is also discussed. People at all levels in the healthcare system are encouraged to develop both formal and informal.

Keywords: conformity, decision-making, inter-professional teams, simulation

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251 Integrating the Athena Vortex Lattice Code into a Multivariate Design Synthesis Optimisation Platform in JAVA

Authors: Paul Okonkwo, Howard Smith

Abstract:

This paper describes a methodology to integrate the Athena Vortex Lattice Aerodynamic Software for automated operation in a multivariate optimisation of the Blended Wing Body Aircraft. The Athena Vortex Lattice code developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology by Mark Drela allows for the aerodynamic analysis of aircraft using the vortex lattice method. Ordinarily, the Athena Vortex Lattice operation requires a text file containing the aircraft geometry to be loaded into the AVL solver in order to determine the aerodynamic forces and moments. However, automated operation will be required to enable integration into a multidisciplinary optimisation framework. Automated AVL operation within the JAVA design environment will nonetheless require a modification and recompilation of AVL source code into an executable file capable of running on windows and other platforms without the –X11 libraries. This paper describes the procedure for the integrating the FORTRAN written AVL software for automated operation within the multivariate design synthesis optimisation framework for the conceptual design of the BWB aircraft.

Keywords: aerodynamics, automation, optimisation, AVL, JNI

Procedia PDF Downloads 558
250 Effects of X and + Tail-Body Configurations on Hydrodynamic Performance and Stability of an Underwater Vehicle

Authors: Kadri Koçer, Sezer Kefeli

Abstract:

This paper proposes a comparison of hydrodynamic performance and stability characteristic for an underwater vehicle which has two type of tail design, namely X and +tail-body configurations. The effects of these configurations on the underwater vehicle’s hydrodynamic performance and maneuvering characteristic will be investigated comprehensively. Hydrodynamic damping coefficients for modeling the motion of the underwater vehicles will be predicted. Additionally, forces and moments due to control surfaces will be compared using computational fluid dynamics methods. In the aviation, the X tail-body configuration is widely used for high maneuverability requirements. However, in the underwater, the + tail-body configuration is more commonly used than the X tail-body configuration for its stability characteristics. Thus it is important to see the effect and differences of the tail designs in the underwater world. For CFD analysis, the incompressible, three-dimensional, and steady Navier-Stokes equations will be used to simulate the flows. Also, k-ε Realizable turbulence model with enhanced wall treatment will be taken. Numerical results is verified with experimental results for verification. The overall goal of this study is to present the advantages and disadvantages of hydrodynamic performance and stability characteristic for X and + tail-body configurations of the underwater vehicle.

Keywords: maneuverability, stability, CFD, tail configuration, hydrodynamic design

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249 Festive Fictions: An Iconographic Study of Ritual and Intersectionality in Cartagena, Colombia

Authors: Melissa Valle

Abstract:

This paper draws upon the studies of visual culture and intersectionality to illuminate how visuality can naturalize social hierarchies. Through the use of iconography, it decodes the denotative, connotative and ideological meanings of symbols of ritualistic events in the context of the Colombian Atlantic Coast. An examination of such exceptional moments, i.e. of the spectacle, brings into focus how such performances are imbued with meaning by both the on-looker and the performer. Through an analysis of preexisting visuals (e.g., advertisements, social media) and visual materials produced by the researcher for the purpose of photo-elicitation interviews, this paper provides a contextual analysis of the ways in which three representations, popular during Colombian Atlantic coastal festivals (Negrita Puloy, Las Palenqueras, and El Son de Negro), have been historically, culturally and politically constituted. This work reveals that the visualizations are born out of and reproduce typifications systems heavily based upon race, gender, class, and ethnicity. Understanding the ways these categories are mutually constituted through the cultural practice of visual representation is essential to a more comprehensive understanding of the role such representation plays in the reproduction of social difference.

Keywords: Colombia, festivals, intersectionality, visual culture

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248 Net Fee and Commission Income Determinants of European Cooperative Banks

Authors: Karolína Vozková, Matěj Kuc

Abstract:

Net fee and commission income is one of the key elements of a bank’s core income. In the current low-interest rate environment, this type of income is gaining importance relative to net interest income. This paper analyses the effects of bank and country specific determinants of net fee and commission income on a set of cooperative banks from European countries in the 2007-2014 period. In order to do that, dynamic panel data methods (system Generalized Methods of Moments) were employed. Subsequently, alternative panel data methods were run as robustness checks of the analysis. Strong positive impact of bank concentration on the share of net fee and commission income was found, which proves that cooperative banks tend to display a higher share of fee income in less competitive markets. This is probably connected with the fact that they stick with their traditional deposit-taking and loan-providing model and fees on these services are driven down by the competitors. Moreover, compared to commercial banks, cooperatives do not expand heavily into non-traditional fee bearing services under competition and their overall fee income share is therefore decreasing with the increased competitiveness of the sector.

Keywords: cooperative banking, dynamic panel data models, net fee and commission income, system GMM

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247 Comparative Study of Arch Bridges with Varying Rise to Span Ratio

Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Arnab Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparative study of Arch bridges based on their varying rise to span ratio. The comparison is done between different steel Arch bridges which have variable span length and rise to span ratio keeping the same support condition. The aim of our present study is to select the optimum value of rise to span ratio of Arch bridge as the cost of the Arch bridge increases with the increasing of the rise. In order to fulfill the objective, several rise to span ratio have been considered for same span of Arch bridge and various structural parameters such as Bending moment, shear force etc have been calculated for different model. A comparative study has been done for several Arch bridges finally to select the optimum rise to span ratio of the Arch bridges. In the present study, Finite Element model for medium to long span, with different rise to span ratio have been modeled and are analyzed with the help of a Computational Software named MIDAS Civil to evaluate the results such as Bending moments, Shear force, displacements, Stresses, influence line diagrams, critical loads. In the present study, 60 models of Arch bridges for 80 to 120 m span with different rise to span ratio has been thoroughly investigated.

Keywords: arch bridge, analysis, comparative study, rise to span ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 482