Search results for: mobility on demand
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3982

Search results for: mobility on demand

3922 The Proposal of a Shared Mobility City Index to Support Investment Decision Making for Carsharing

Authors: S. Murr, S. Phillips

Abstract:

One of the biggest challenges entering a market with a carsharing or any other shared mobility (SM) service is sound investment decision-making. To support this process, the authors think that a city index evaluating different criteria is necessary. The goal of such an index is to benchmark cities along a set of external measures to answer the main two challenges: financially viability and the understanding of its specific requirements. The authors have consulted several shared mobility projects and industry experts to create such a Shared Mobility City Index (SMCI). The current proposal of the SMCI consists of 11 individual index measures: general data (demographics, geography, climate and city culture), shared mobility landscape (current SM providers, public transit options, commuting patterns and driving culture) and political vision and goals (vision of the Mayor, sustainability plan, bylaws/tenders supporting SM). To evaluate the suitability of the index, 16 cities on the East Coast of North America were selected and secondary research was conducted. The main sources of this study were census data, organisational records, independent press releases and informational websites. Only non-academic sources where used because the relevant data for the chosen cities is not published in academia. Applying the index measures to the selected cities resulted in three major findings. Firstly, density (city area divided by number of inhabitants) is not an indicator for the number of SM services offered: the city with the lowest density has five bike and carsharing options. Secondly, there is a direct correlation between commuting patterns and how many shared mobility services are offered. New York, Toronto and Washington DC have the highest public transit ridership and the most shared mobility providers. Lastly, except one, all surveyed cities support shared mobility with their sustainability plan. The current version of the shared mobility index is proving a practical tool to evaluate cities, and to understand functional, political, social and environmental considerations. More cities will have to be evaluated to refine the criteria further. However, the current version of the index can be used to assess cities on their suitability for shared mobility services and will assist investors deciding which city is a financially viable market.

Keywords: carsharing, transportation, urban planning, shared mobility city index

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3921 Quantifying Mobility of Urban Inhabitant Based on Social Media Data

Authors: Yuyun, Fritz Akhmad Nuzir, Bart Julien Dewancker

Abstract:

Check-in locations on social media provide information about an individual’s location. The millions of units of data generated from these sites provide knowledge for human activity. In this research, we used a geolocation service and users’ texts posted on Twitter social media to analyze human mobility. Our research will answer the questions; what are the movement patterns of a citizen? And, how far do people travel in the city? We explore the people trajectory of 201,118 check-ins and 22,318 users over a period of one month in Makassar city, Indonesia. To accommodate individual mobility, the authors only analyze the users with check-in activity greater than 30 times. We used sampling method with a systematic sampling approach to assign the research sample. The study found that the individual movement shows a high degree of regularity and intensity in certain places. The other finding found that the average distance an urban inhabitant can travel per day is as far as 9.6 km.

Keywords: mobility, check-in, distance, Twitter

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3920 Placelessness and the Subversive Tactics of Mobility in Ernest Hemingway and Jabra Ibrahim Jabra

Authors: Ahmad Qabaha

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This paper teases out the ways in which the constructs of placelessness and mobility are articulated in modern exilic Palestinian literature and American expatriate writing. The mode of placelessness embodied by the characters of each of my two authors (expatriation in Paris Montparnasse for Hemingway's characters and involuntary exile in Europe for Jabra's) will be elicited from the orientations of their mobility. This paper argues that the proclivity of Hemingway's characters for centrifugal motion (moving away from the centre) is a strategy to increase their sense of freedom that space (expatriation), rather than place, secures. By contrast, the movement of Jabra's characters is centripetal (moving or tending to move towards the centre). It echoes his Palestinian characters' recurrent futile attempts to return to Palestine, and it expresses their resistance to the lures of exile. This paper asserts that the involuntarily exiled character (the Palestinian in this case) is a figure obsessed with and ache for a place, roots and 'a dwelling' from which he was uprooted - a place that defines his authentic existence and frames his understanding of the world in Martin Heidegger's, Simone Weil's and Gaston Bachelard's senses. In parallel, this paper explains that the expatriate character (the American in this case) views place as confining, restrictive and disagreeable, while mobility as a figure of freedom, resistance, wealth, self-fashioning and understanding/inhabiting the world. Place in this sense is associated with past, tradition, ideology, existence and being. Mobility is equivalent with modernity, progression, innovation, self-fashioning and freedom.

Keywords: American expatriate literature, exilic Palestinian literature, mobility, place, placelessness

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3919 Polymer Flooding: Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery Technique

Authors: Abhinav Bajpayee, Shubham Damke, Rupal Ranjan, Neha Bharti

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Polymer flooding is a dramatic improvement in water flooding and quickly becoming one of the EOR technologies. Used for improving oil recovery. With the increasing energy demand and depleting oil reserves EOR techniques are becoming increasingly significant .Since most oil fields have already begun water flooding, chemical EOR technique can be implemented by using fewer resources than any other EOR technique. Polymer helps in increasing the viscosity of injected water thus reducing water mobility and hence achieves a more stable displacement .Polymer flooding helps in increasing the injection viscosity as has been revealed through field experience. While the injection of a polymer solution improves reservoir conformance the beneficial effect ceases as soon as one attempts to push the polymer solution with water. It is most commonly applied technique because of its higher success rate. In polymer flooding, a water-soluble polymer such as Polyacrylamide is added to the water in the water flood. This increases the viscosity of the water to that of a gel making the oil and water greatly improving the efficiency of the water flood. It also improves the vertical and areal sweep efficiency as a consequence of improving the water/oil mobility ratio. Polymer flooding plays an important role in oil exploitation, but around 60 million ton of wastewater is produced per day with oil extraction together. Therefore the treatment and reuse of wastewater becomes significant which can be carried out by electro dialysis technology. This treatment technology can not only decrease environmental pollution, but also achieve closed-circuit of polymer flooding wastewater during crude oil extraction. There are three potential ways in which a polymer flood can make the oil recovery process more efficient: (1) through the effects of polymers on fractional flow, (2) by decreasing the water/oil mobility ratio, and (3) by diverting injected water from zones that have been swept. It has also been suggested that the viscoelastic behavior of polymers can improve displacement efficiency Polymer flooding may also have an economic impact because less water is injected and produced compared with water flooding. In future we need to focus on developing polymers that can be used in reservoirs of high temperature and high salinity, applying polymer flooding in different reservoir conditions and also combine polymer with other processes (e.g., surfactant/ polymer flooding).

Keywords: fractional flow, polymer, viscosity, water/oil mobility ratio

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3918 Contribution of Geomatics Technology in the Capability to Implement an On-Demand Transport in Oran Wilaya (the Northwestern of Algeria)

Authors: Brahmia Nadjet

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The growing needs of displacements led advanced countries in this field install new specific transport systems, able to palliate any deficiencies, especially when regular public transport does not adequately meet the requests of users. In this context, on-demand transport systems (ODT) are very efficient. They rely on techniques based on the location of trip generators which should be assured effectively with the use of operators responsible for the advance reservation, planning and organization, and studying the different ODT criteria (organizational, technical, geographical, etc.). As the advanced countries in the field of transport, some developing countries are involved in the adaptation of the new technologies to reduce the deficit in their communication system. This paper presents the study of an ODT implementation in the west of Algeria, by developing the geomatics side of the study. This part requires the use of specific systems such as Geographic Information System (GIS), Road Database Management System (RDBMS). So, we developed the process through an application in an environment of mobility by using the computer tools dedicated to the management of the entities related to the transport field.

Keywords: ODT, geomatics, GIS, transport systems

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3917 Mobility and Effective Regulatory Policies in the 21st Century Transport Sector

Authors: Pedro Paulino

Abstract:

The majority of the world’s population is already living in urban areas and the urban population is expected to keep increasing in the next decades. This exponential increase in urban population carries with it obvious mobility problems. Not only a new paradigm in the transport sector is needed in order to address these problems; effective regulatory policies to ensure the quality of services, passenger rights, competition between operators and consistency of the entire mobile ecosystem are needed as well. The purpose of this paper is to present the problems the world faces in this sector and contribute to their solution. Indeed, our study concludes that only through the active supervision of the markets and the activity of monitoring the various operators will it be possible to develop a sustainable and efficient transport system which meets the needs of a changing world.

Keywords: mobility, regulation policies, sanctioning powers, sustainable transport

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3916 Current of Drain for Various Values of Mobility in the Gaas Mesfet

Authors: S. Belhour, A. K. Ferouani, C. Azizi

Abstract:

In recent years, a considerable effort (experience, numerical simulation, and theoretical prediction models) has characterised by high efficiency and low cost. Then an improved physics analytical model for simulating is proposed. The performance of GaAs MESFETs has been developed for use in device design for high frequency. This model is based on mathematical analysis, and a new approach for the standard model is proposed, this approach allowed to conceive applicable model for MESFET’s operating in the turn-one or pinch-off region and valid for the short-channel and the long channel MESFET’s in which the two dimensional potential distribution contributed by the depletion layer under the gate is obtained by conventional approximation. More ever, comparisons between the analytical models with different values of mobility are proposed, and a good agreement is obtained.

Keywords: analytical, gallium arsenide, MESFET, mobility, models

Procedia PDF Downloads 49
3915 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

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3914 Mobility of Metallic Trace Elements (MTE) in Water and Sediment of the Rivers: Case of Nil River, North-Eastern Algerian

Authors: S. Benessam, T. H. Debieche, S. Amiour, A. Chine, S. Khelili

Abstract:

The metallic trace elements (MTE) are present in water and sediments of the rivers with weak concentrations. Several physicochemical parameters (Eh, pH and oxygen dissolved) and chemical processes (adsorption, absorption, complexation and precipitation) as well as nature of the sediments control their mobility. In order to determine the effect of these factors on the mobility of some MTE (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn) in water of the rivers, a two-monthly monitoring of the physicochemical parameters and chemistry of water and sediments of the Nil wadi (Algeria) was carried out during the period from November 2013 to January 2015. The results show that each MTE has its own conditions of mobility and generally are very influence by the variations of the pH and Eh. Under the natural conditions, neutral pH with basic and medium oxidizing, only the lead presented in water with raised values, indicating its solubility in water and its salting out of the sediments. The other MTE present raised concentrations in the sediments, indicating their trapping by adsorption and/or chemical precipitation. The chemical form of each ETM was given by Eh-pH diagrams. The spatio-temporal monitoring of these ETM shows the effect of the rains, the dry periods and the rejects in the variation of their concentrations.

Keywords: chemistry, metallic trace elements, sediment, water

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3913 International Education Mobility Programs: Inclusive by Definition, Exclusive in Practice

Authors: Mateusz Jeżowski, Jadwiga Fila, Paweł Poszytek

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This abstract summarizes the combined findings of several analyses carried out by the authors on the barriers to accessing international education mobility programs by people with fewer opportunities, especially those with a low level of cultural and social capital. Two flagship educational mobility initiatives of the European Union – the Erasmus+ Program and the European Solidarity Corps are aimed at equipping young people and participants of all ages with the qualifications and skills needed for their meaningful participation in a democratic society intercultural understanding and successful transition in the labour market. The heart of these programs is to come closer to people with fewer opportunities, including people with disabilities, migrants, as well as those facing socio-economic difficulties and displaying a low level of social and cultural capital. Still, people who participate in such initiatives usually demonstrate higher than average cultural and social capital, as understood by Pierre Bourdieu. First of all, the educational attainment of their parents is higher than the average. Secondly, they mostly live in large agglomerations, with good access to education and culture, which affects their foreign language skills as well as social and cultural competencies. Finally, participation in Erasmus+ Program or European Solidarity Corps is not their first educational mobility experience. It is therefore justified to state that their social and cultural capital, already high before taking part in Erasmus+ and European Solidarity Corps, becomes even higher once their international mobility activities have been over, at the expense of those people with fewer opportunities, who, in theory, could participate in those initiatives, nonetheless did not, for the following reasons: lack of sufficient information on such programs, financial obstacles or unappreciation of the value of international mobility. In their work, the authors will discuss what are, in the light of Bourdieu’s perception of social and cultural capital, the main obstacles for young people to participate in international mobility programs of the European Union and will offer comprehensive solutions rooted in their vast experience in management and implementation of Erasmus+ Program and European Solidarity Corps.

Keywords: cultural capital, educational mobility, Erasmus+, European solidarity corps, inclusion, social capital

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3912 Tuning of the Thermal Capacity of an Envelope for Peak Demand Reduction

Authors: Isha Rathore, Peeyush Jain, Elangovan Rajasekar

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The thermal capacity of the envelope impacts the cooling and heating demand of a building and modulates the peak electricity demand. This paper presents the thermal capacity tuning of a building envelope to minimize peak electricity demand for space cooling. We consider a 40 m² residential testbed located in Hyderabad, India (Composite Climate). An EnergyPlus model is validated using real-time data. A Parametric simulation framework for thermal capacity tuning is created using the Honeybee plugin. Diffusivity, Thickness, layer position, orientation and fenestration size of the exterior envelope are parametrized considering a five-layered wall system. A total of 1824 parametric runs are performed and the optimum wall configuration leading to minimum peak cooling demand is presented.

Keywords: thermal capacity, tuning, peak demand reduction, parametric analysis

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3911 Proposal of Methodology Based on Technical Characterization and Quantitative Contrast of Co₂ Emissions for the Migration to Electric Mobility of the Vehicle Fleet: Case Study of Electric Companies in Ecuador

Authors: Rodrigo I. Ullauri, Santiago E. Tinajero, Omar O. Ramos, Paola R. Quintana

Abstract:

The increase of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere and its impact on climate change is a global concern. The transportation sector is a significant consumer of fossil fuels and contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. The current challenge is to find ways to reduce the use of fossil fuels in transportation. In Ecuador, where 92% of electricity is generated from clean sources, the concept of e-mobility is considered an attractive alternative to address the challenge of sustainable mobility. The proposal is to migrate from combustion-powered vehicles to electric vehicles in the electric companies of Ecuador, using a methodology to standardize criteria, determine specific requirements, contrast technical characteristics, and estimate emission reductions. The results showed that there are three categories of vehicles that have electric counterparts suitable for performing activities under certain operation parameters inherent to current technology limitations but with a significant contribution to the reduction of annual CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: climate change, electro mobility, energy, sustainable transportation

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3910 Comparative Analysis between Wired and Wireless Technologies in Communications: A Review

Authors: Jafaru Ibrahim, Tonga Agadi Danladi, Haruna Sani

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Many telecommunications industry are looking for new ways to maximize their investment in communication networks while ensuring reliable and secure information transmission. There is a variety of communications medium solutions, the two must popularly in used are wireless technology and wired options, such as copper and fiber-optic cable. Wired network has proven its potential in the olden days but nowadays wireless communication has emerged as a robust and most intellect and preferred communication technique. Each of these types of communication medium has their advantages and disadvantages according to its technological characteristics. Wired and wireless networking has different hardware requirements, ranges, mobility, reliability and benefits. The aim of the paper is to compare both the Wired and Wireless medium on the basis of various parameters such as usability, cost, efficiency, flexibility, coverage, reliability, mobility, speed, security etc.

Keywords: cost, mobility, reliability, speed, security, wired, wireless

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3909 Harmonizing Spatial Plans: A Methodology to Integrate Sustainable Mobility and Energy Plans to Promote Resilient City Planning

Authors: B. Sanchez, D. Zambrana-Vasquez, J. Fresner, C. Krenn, F. Morea, L. Mercatelli

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Local administrations are facing established targets on sustainable development from different disciplines at the heart of different city departments. Nevertheless, some of these targets, such as CO2 reduction, relate to two or more disciplines, as it is the case of sustainable mobility and energy plans (SUMP & SECAP/SEAP). This opens up the possibility to efficiently cooperate among different city departments and to create and develop harmonized spatial plans by using available resources and together achieving more ambitious goals in cities. The steps of the harmonization processes developed result in the identification of areas to achieve common strategic objectives. Harmonization, in other words, helps different departments in local authorities to work together and optimize the use or resources by sharing the same vision, involving key stakeholders, and promoting common data assessment to better optimize the resources. A methodology to promote resilient city planning via the harmonization of sustainable mobility and energy plans is presented in this paper. In order to validate the proposed methodology, a representative city engaged in an innovation process in efficient spatial planning is used as a case study. The harmonization process of sustainable mobility and energy plans covers identifying matching targets between different fields, developing different spatial plans with dual benefit and common indicators guaranteeing the continuous improvement of the harmonized plans. The proposed methodology supports local administrations in consistent spatial planning, considering both energy efficiency and sustainable mobility. Thus, municipalities can use their human and economic resources efficiently. This guarantees an efficient upgrade of land use plans integrating energy and mobility aspects in order to achieve sustainability targets, as well as to improve the wellbeing of its citizens.

Keywords: integrated multi-sector planning, spatial plans harmonization, sustainable energy and climate action plan, sustainable urban mobility plan

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3908 A 5G Architecture Based to Dynamic Vehicular Clustering Enhancing VoD Services Over Vehicular Ad hoc Networks

Authors: Lamaa Sellami, Bechir Alaya

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Nowadays, video-on-demand (VoD) applications are becoming one of the tendencies driving vehicular network users. In this paper, considering the unpredictable vehicle density, the unexpected acceleration or deceleration of the different cars included in the vehicular traffic load, and the limited radio range of the employed communication scheme, we introduce the “Dynamic Vehicular Clustering” (DVC) algorithm as a new scheme for video streaming systems over VANET. The proposed algorithm takes advantage of the concept of small cells and the introduction of wireless backhauls, inspired by the different features and the performance of the Long Term Evolution (LTE)- Advanced network. The proposed clustering algorithm considers multiple characteristics such as the vehicle’s position and acceleration to reduce latency and packet loss. Therefore, each cluster is counted as a small cell containing vehicular nodes and an access point that is elected regarding some particular specifications.

Keywords: video-on-demand, vehicular ad-hoc network, mobility, vehicular traffic load, small cell, wireless backhaul, LTE-advanced, latency, packet loss

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3907 Informal Green Infrastructure as Mobility Enabler in Informal Settlements of Quito

Authors: Ignacio W. Loor

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In the context of informal settlements in Quito, this paper provides evidence that slopes and deep ravines typical of Andean cities, around which marginalized urban communities sit, constitute a platform for green infrastructure that supports mobility for pedestrians in an incremental fashion. This is informally shaped green infrastructure that provides connectivity to other mobility infrastructures such as roads and public transport, which permits relegated dwellers reach their daily destinations and reclaim their rights to the city. This is relevant in that walking has been increasingly neglected as a viable mean of transport in Latin American cities, in favor of rather motorized means, for which the mobility benefits of green infrastructure have remained invisible to policymakers, contributing to the progressive isolation of informal settlements. This research leverages greatly on an ecological rejuvenation programme led by the municipality of Quito and the Andean Corporation for Development (CAN) intended for rehabilitating the ecological functionalities of ravines. Accordingly, four ravines in different stages of rejuvenation were chosen, in order to through ethnographic methods, capture the practices they support to dwellers of informal settlements across different stages, particularly in terms of issues of mobility. Then, by presenting fragments of interviews, description of observed phenomena, photographs and narratives published in institutional reports and media, the production process of mobility infrastructure over unoccupied slopes and ravines, and the roles that this infrastructure plays in the mobility of dwellers and their quotidian practices are explained. For informal settlements, which normally feature scant urban infrastructure, mobility embodies an unfavourable driver for the possibilities of dwellers to actively participate in the social, economic and political dimensions of the city, for which their rights to the city are widely neglected. Nevertheless, informal green infrastructure for mobility provides some alleviation. This infrastructure is incremental, since its features and usability gradually evolves as users put into it knowledge, labour, devices, and connectivity to other infrastructures in different dimensions which increment its dependability. This is evidenced in the diffusion of knowledge of trails and routes of footpaths among users, the implementation of linking stairs and bridges, the improved access by producing public spaces adjacent to the ravines, the illuminating of surrounding roads, and ultimately, the restoring of ecological functions of ravines. However, the perpetuity of this type of infrastructure is also fragile and vulnerable to the course of urbanisation, densification, and expansion of gated privatised spaces.

Keywords: green infrastructure, informal settlements, urban mobility, walkability

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3906 The Meaning of Stillness: Based on the Errand Boy Project in Tibet during the Pandemic Quarantine in Shanghai in the Mayday Holiday

Authors: Mingyuan Duan

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Many scholars have paid attention to the relationship between mobility and stillness, but most of them focus on stillness from the perspective of serving mobility. This study believes that more attention should be paid to the importance of stillness, and we suggest reexamining the meaning of stillness in terms of the value of stillness to people. The Errand Boy Project was launched by a social innovation enterprise called Bottle Dream during the May Day holiday in 2022. It linked volunteers from all over the world online to help people who are trapped at home due to the epidemic realize their outdoor wishes: get closer to nature and relieve their anxious mood. Taking Errand Boy in Tibet as a case study, this paper analyzes the emotional expressions and comments of people with limited mobility in the face of nature in the webcast room and explains the importance of stillness to humans from a non-human perspective. This study points out that the significance of stillness to human beings during the pandemic is composed of three aspects: the sense of solidity established by a steady mobile phone network connection, the stable possibility of wish fulfillment predicted by the periodic regularity of plant growth, and the transcendent spiritual power from the stable sacred mountain.

Keywords: stillness, non-human, pandemic, mobility

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3905 Time Organization for Decongesting Urban Mobility: New Methodology Identifying People's Behavior

Authors: Yassamina Berkane, Leila Kloul, Yoann Demoli

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Quality of life, environmental impact, congestion of mobility means, and infrastructures remain significant challenges for urban mobility. Solutions like car sharing, spatial redesign, eCommerce, and autonomous vehicles will likely increase the unit veh-km and the density of cars in urban traffic, thus reducing congestion. However, the impact of such solutions is not clear for researchers. Congestion arises from growing populations that must travel greater distances to arrive at similar locations (e.g., workplaces, schools) during the same time frame (e.g., rush hours). This paper first reviews the research and application cases of urban congestion methods through recent years. Rethinking the question of time, it then investigates people’s willingness and flexibility to adapt their arrival and departure times from workplaces. We use neural networks and methods of supervised learning to apply a new methodology for predicting peoples' intentions from their responses in a questionnaire. We created and distributed a questionnaire to more than 50 companies in the Paris suburb. Obtained results illustrate that our methodology can predict peoples' intentions to reschedule their activities (work, study, commerce, etc.).

Keywords: urban mobility, decongestion, machine learning, neural network

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3904 Urban Sustainability and Sustainable Mobility, Lessons Learned from the Case of Chile

Authors: Jorge Urrutia-Mosquera, Luz Flórez-Calderón, Yasna Cortés

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We assessed the state of progress in terms of urban sustainability indicators and studied the impact of current land use conditions and the level of spatial accessibility to basic urban amenities on travel patterns and sustainable mobility in Santiago de Chile. We determined the spatial impact of urban facilities on sustainable travel patterns through the statistical analysis, data visualisation, and weighted regression models. The results show a need to diversify land use in more than 60% of the communes, although in 85% of the communes, accessibility to public spaces is guaranteed. The findings also suggest improving access to early education facilities, as only 26% of the communes meet the sustainability standard, negatively impacting travel in sustainable modes. It is also observed that the level of access to urban facilities generates spatial heterogeneity in the city, which negatively affects travel patterns in terms of time over 60 minutes and modes of travel in private vehicles. The results obtained allow us to identify opportunities for public policy intervention to promote and adopt sustainable mobility.

Keywords: land use, urban sustainability, travel patterns, spatial heterogeneity, GWR model, sustainable mobility

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3903 Electricity Demand Modeling and Forecasting in Singapore

Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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3902 Oil Demand Forecasting in China: A Structural Time Series Analysis

Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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3901 Shoulder-Arm Mobility and Upper and Lower Extremity Muscle Function are Impaired in Patients with Systemic Sclerosis

Authors: F. Bringby, A. Nordin, L. Björnådal, E. Svenungsson, C. Boström, H Alexanderson

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Patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) have reduced hand function and self-reported limitations in daily activities. Few studies have explored limitations in shoulder-arm mobility and muscle function, or if there are differences in physical function between diffuse cutaneous (dcSSc) and limited cutaneous (lcSSc) SSc. The purpose of this study was to describe objectively assessed shoulder-arm mobility, lower extremity muscle function and muscle endurance in SSc and evaluate possible differences between lcSSc and dcSSc. 121 patients with SSc were included in this cross sectional study. Shoulder-arm mobility were examined using the Shoulder Function Assessment Scale (SFA) including 5 tasks ,lower extremity muscle function was measured by Timed stands test (TST) and muscle endurance in shoulder- and hip flexors were assessed by the Functional Index 2 (FI-2). Patients with dcSSc had median SFA hand to back score 5 (4-6) and median “hand to seat” score of 5 (4-6) compared to patients with lcSSc with corresponding median values of 6 (4-6) and 6 (5-6) respectively (p<0.01-p<0.05). 50% of both patientsgroups had lower muscle function assessed by the TST compared to age- and gender matched reference values but there were no differences in TST between the two patient groups. There was no difference in FI-2 scores between dcSSc and lcSSc. The whole group had 40 (28-83) % and 38 (32-72) % of maximal FI-2 shoulder flexion score on the right and left sides, and 40 (23-63) % and 37 (23-62) % of maximal FI-2 hip flexion score on the right and left sides. Reference values for the FI-2 indicate that healthy individuals perform in mean 100 % of maximal score. Patients with dcSSc were more limited than patients with lcSSc. Patients with SSc have reduced muscle function compared to reference values. These results highlights the importance of assessing shoulder-arm mobility and muscle function as well as a need for further research to identify exercise interventions to target these limitations.

Keywords: diffuse, limited, mobility, muscle function, physical therapy, systemic sclerosis

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3900 Production and Leftovers Usage Policies to Minimize Food Waste under Uncertain and Correlated Demand

Authors: Esma Birisci, Ronald McGarvey

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One of the common problems in food service industry is demand uncertainty. This research presents a multi-criteria optimization approach to identify the efficient frontier of points lying between the minimum-waste and minimum-shortfall solutions within uncertain demand environment. It also addresses correlation across demands for items (e.g., hamburgers are often demanded with french fries). Reducing overproduction food waste (and its corresponding environmental impacts) and an aversion to shortfalls (leave some customer hungry) need to consider as two contradictory objectives in an all-you-care-to-eat environment food service operation. We identify optimal production adjustments relative to demand forecasts, demand thresholds for utilization of leftovers, and percentages of demand to be satisfied by leftovers, considering two alternative metrics for overproduction waste: mass; and greenhouse gas emissions. Demand uncertainty and demand correlations are addressed using a kernel density estimation approach. A statistical analysis of the changes in decision variable values across each of the efficient frontiers can then be performed to identify the key variables that could be modified to reduce the amount of wasted food at minimal increase in shortfalls. We illustrate our approach with an application to empirical data from Campus Dining Services operations at the University of Missouri.

Keywords: environmental studies, food waste, production planning, uncertain and correlated demand

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3899 Regeneration Study on the Athens City Center: Transformation of the Historical Triangle to “Low Pollution and Restricted Vehicle Traffic Zone”

Authors: Chondrogianni Dimitra, Yorgos J. Stephanedes

Abstract:

The impact of the economic crisis, coupled with the aging of the city's old core, is reflected in central Athens. Public and private users, residents, employees, visitors desire the quality upgrading of abandoned buildings and public spaces through environmental upgrading and sustainable mobility, and promotion of the international metropolitan character of the city. In the study, a strategy for reshaping the character and function of the historic Athenian triangle is proposed, aiming at its economic, environmental, and social sustainable development through feasible, meaningful, and non-landscaping solutions of low cost and high positive impact. Sustainable mobility is the main principle in re-planning the study area and transforming it into a “Low Pollution and Limited Vehicle Traffic Zone” is the main strategy. Τhe proposed measures include the development of pedestrian mobility networks by expanding the pedestrian roads and limited-traffic routes, of bicycle networks based on the approved Metropolitan Bicycle Route of Athens, of public transportation networks with new lines of electric mini-buses, and of new regulations for vehicle mobility in the historic triangle. In addition, complementary actions are proposed regarding the provision of Wi-Fi on fixed track media, development of applications that facilitate combined travel and provide real-time data, integration of micromobility (roller skates, Segway, Hoverboard), and its enhancement as a flexible means of personal mobility, and development of car-sharing, ride-sharing and dynamic carpooling initiatives.

Keywords: regeneration plans, sustainable mobility, environmental upgrading, athens historical triangle

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
3898 Issues in Travel Demand Forecasting

Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

Abstract:

Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper.

Keywords: travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment

Procedia PDF Downloads 420
3897 A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Evaluation of Real-Time Disaster Relief Demand and Network Condition

Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

Abstract:

Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
3896 Treating On-Demand Bonds as Cash-In-Hand: Analyzing the Use of “Unconscionability” as a Ground for Challenging Claims for Payment under On-Demand Bonds

Authors: Asanga Gunawansa, Shenella Fonseka

Abstract:

On-demand bonds, also known as unconditional bonds, are commonplace in the construction industry as a means of safeguarding the employer from any potential non-performance by a contractor. On-demand bonds may be obtained from commercial banks, and they serve as an undertaking by the issuing bank to honour payment on demand without questioning and/or considering any dispute between the employer and the contractor in relation to the underlying contract. Thus, whether or not a breach had occurred under the underlying contract, which triggers the demand for encashment by the employer, is not a question the bank needs to be concerned with. As a result, an unconditional bond allows the beneficiary to claim the money almost without any condition. Thus, an unconditional bond is as good as cash-in-hand. In the past, establishing fraud on the part of the employer, of which the bank had knowledge, was the only ground on which a bank could dishonour a claim made under an on-demand bond. However, recent jurisprudence in common law countries shows that courts are beginning to consider unconscionable conduct on the part of the employer in claiming under an on-demand bond as a ground that contractors could rely on the prevent the banks from honouring such claims. This has created uncertainty in connection with on-demand bonds and their liquidity. This paper analyzes recent judicial decisions in four common law jurisdictions, namely, England, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Sri Lanka, to identify the scope of using the concept of “unconscionability” as a ground for preventing unreasonable claims for encashment of on-demand bonds. The objective of this paper is to argue that on-demand bonds have lost their effectiveness as “cash-in-hand” and that this is, in fact, an advantage and not an impediment to international commerce, as the purpose of such bonds should not be to provide for illegal and unconscionable conduct by the beneficiaries.

Keywords: fraud, performance guarantees, on-demand bonds, unconscionability

Procedia PDF Downloads 68
3895 Regression Analysis of Travel Indicators and Public Transport Usage in Urban Areas

Authors: Mehdi Moeinaddini, Zohreh Asadi-Shekari, Muhammad Zaly Shah, Amran Hamzah

Abstract:

Currently, planners try to have more green travel options to decrease economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, this study tries to find significant urban travel factors to be used to increase the usage of alternative urban travel modes. This paper attempts to identify the relationship between prominent urban mobility indicators and daily trips by public transport in 30 cities from various parts of the world. Different travel modes, infrastructures and cost indicators were evaluated in this research as mobility indicators. The results of multi-linear regression analysis indicate that there is a significant relationship between mobility indicators and the daily usage of public transport.

Keywords: green travel modes, urban travel indicators, daily trips by public transport, multi-linear regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 520
3894 Joint Optimization of Carsharing Stations with Vehicle Relocation and Demand Selection

Authors: Jiayuan Wu. Lu Hu

Abstract:

With the development of the sharing economy and mobile technology, carsharing becomes more popular. In this paper, we focus on the joint optimization of one-way station-based carsharing systems. We model the problem as an integer linear program with six elements: station locations, station capacity, fleet size, initial vehicle allocation, vehicle relocation, and demand selection. A greedy-based heuristic is proposed to address the model. Firstly, initialization based on the location variables relaxation using Gurobi solver is conducted. Then, according to the profit margin and demand satisfaction of each station, the number of stations is downsized iteratively. This method is applied to real data from Chengdu, Sichuan taxi data, and it’s efficient when dealing with a large scale of candidate stations. The result shows that with vehicle relocation and demand selection, the profit and demand satisfaction of carsharing systems are increased.

Keywords: one-way carsharing, location, vehicle relocation, demand selection, greedy algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
3893 Using AI to Advance Factory Planning: A Case Study to Identify Success Factors of Implementing an AI-Based Demand Planning Solution

Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

Abstract:

Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 145