Search results for: growing degree days
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8870

Search results for: growing degree days

8690 A Comparative Analysis of Geometric and Exponential Laws in Modelling the Distribution of the Duration of Daily Precipitation

Authors: Mounia El Hafyani, Khalid El Himdi

Abstract:

Precipitation is one of the key variables in water resource planning. The importance of modeling wet and dry durations is a crucial pointer in engineering hydrology. The objective of this study is to model and analyze the distribution of wet and dry durations. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data from 1967 to 2017 of the Moroccan city of Kenitra’s station are used. Three models are implemented for the distribution of wet and dry durations, namely the first-order Markov chain, the second-order Markov chain, and the truncated negative binomial law. The adherence of the data to the proposed models is evaluated using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The Akaike information criterion is applied to assess the most effective model distribution. We go further and study the law of the number of wet and dry days among k consecutive days. The calculation of this law is done through an algorithm that we have implemented based on conditional laws. We complete our work by comparing the observed moments of the numbers of wet/dry days among k consecutive days to the calculated moment of the three estimated models. The study shows the effectiveness of our approach in modeling wet and dry durations of daily precipitation.

Keywords: Markov chain, rainfall, truncated negative binomial law, wet and dry durations

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8689 Automatic Classification for the Degree of Disc Narrowing from X-Ray Images Using CNN

Authors: Kwangmin Joo

Abstract:

Automatic detection of lumbar vertebrae and classification method is proposed for evaluating the degree of disc narrowing. Prior to classification, deep learning based segmentation is applied to detect individual lumbar vertebra. M-net is applied to segment five lumbar vertebrae and fine-tuning segmentation is employed to improve the accuracy of segmentation. Using the features extracted from previous step, clustering technique, k-means clustering, is applied to estimate the degree of disc space narrowing under four grade scoring system. As preliminary study, techniques proposed in this research could help building an automatic scoring system to diagnose the severity of disc narrowing from X-ray images.

Keywords: Disc space narrowing, Degenerative disc disorders, Deep learning based segmentation, Clustering technique

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8688 First 1000 Days: Mothers’ Understanding of an Attachment Bond and the Role That It Plays in Early Childhood

Authors: Athena Pedro, Carushca de Beer, Erin Cupido, Tarryn Johnson, Tawana Keneilwe, Crystal Stoffels, Carinne Annfred Lorraine Petersen, Kuan Michael Truskey

Abstract:

The early experiences of children during their first 1000 days of life are the main determining factor of their development. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore mothers' understanding of an attachment bond and the role that it plays in early childhood. A qualitative exploratory research design guided this study. Ethics approval was granted by appropriate ethics committees. Data were gathered through the use of semi-structured interviews with 15 participants within the Cape Town area, South Africa. Participants completed informed consents and were informed of confidentiality, anonymity, their rights, and voluntary participation. Thematically analysed data revealed that many participants were unaware of the term ‘the first 1000 days of a child’s life’; however, they were aware of the methods to be used for forming an attachment bond with their children. There is a need for more awareness on the subject matter within South Africa.

Keywords: awareness, children, first 1000 days, milestones, South Africa, understanding

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8687 Correlation Volumic Shrinkage, Conversion Degree of Dental Composites

Authors: A. Amirouche, M. Mouzali, D. C. Watts

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During polymerization of dental composites, the volumic shrinkage is related to the conversion degree. The variation of the volumic shrinkage (S max according to the degree of conversion CD.), was examined for the experimental composites: (BisGMA/TEGDMA): (50/50), (75/25), (25/75) mixed with seven radiopac fillers: La2O3, BaO, BaSO4, SrO, ZrO2 , SrZrO3 and BaZrO 3 with different contents in weight, from 0 to 80%. We notice that whatever the filler and the composition in monomers, Smax increases with the increase in CD. This variation is, linear in particular in the case of the fillers containing only one heavy metal, and that whatever the composition in monomers. For a given salt, the increase of BisGMA composition leads to significant increase of S max more pronounced than the increase in CD. The variation of ratio (S max / CD.) with the increase of filler content is negligible. However the fillers containing two types of heavy metals have more effect on the volumic shrinkage than on the degree of conversion. Whatever the composition in monomer, and the content of filler containing only one heavy atom, S max increases with the increase in CD. Nevertheless, S max is affected by the viscosity of the medium compared with CD. For high percentages of mineral fillers (≥ 70% in weight), the diagrams S max according to CD are deviated of the linearity, owing to the fact that S max is affected by the high percentage of fillers compared with CD. The number of heavy atoms influences directly correlation (S max / CD.). In the case of the two mineral fillers: SrZrO3 and BaZrO3 ratio (S max / CD) moves away from the proportionality. The linearity of the diagrams Smax according to CD is less regular, due to the viscosity of high content of BisGMA. The study of Smax and DC of four commercial composites are presented and compared to elaborate experimental composites.

Keywords: Dental composites, degree of conversion, volumic shrinkage, photopolymerization

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8686 Investigation of the Jupiter’s Galilean Moons

Authors: Revaz Chigladze

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The purpose of the research is to investigate the surfaces of Jupiter's Galilean moons, namely which moon has the most uniform surface among them, what is the difference between the front (in the direction of motion) and the back sides of each moon's surface, as well as the temporal variations of the moons. Since 1981, the E. Kharadze National Astrophysical Observatory of Georgia has been conducting polarimetric (P) and photometric (M) observations of Jupiter's Galilean moons with telescopes of different diameters (40 cm and 125 cm) and the polarimeter ASEP-78 in combination with them and the latest generation photometer with a polarimeter and modern light receiver SBIG. As it turns out from the analysis of the observed material, the parameters P and M depend on α-the phase angle of the moon (satellite), L- the orbital latitude of the moon (satellite), λ- the wavelength, and t - the period of observation, i.e., P = P (α, L, λ , t), and similarly M = M (α, L, λ. , t). Based on the analysis of the observed material, the following was studied: Jupiter's Galilean moons: dependence of the magnitude and phase angle of the degree of linear polarization for different wavelengths; Dependence of the degree of polarization and the orbital longitude; dependence between the magnitude of the degree of polarization and the wavelength; time dependence of the degree of polarization and the dependence between photometric and polarimetric characteristics (including establishing correlation). From the analysis of the obtained results, we get: The magnitude of the degree of polarization of Jupiter's Galilean moons near the opposition significantly differs from zero. Europa appears to have the most uniform surface, and Callisto the least uniform. Time variations are most characteristic of Io, which confirms the presence of volcanic activity on its surface. Based on the observed material, it can be seen that the intensity of light reflected from the front hemisphere of the first three moons: Io, Europa, and Ganymede, is less than the intensity of light reflected from the rear hemisphere, and in the case of the Callisto it is the opposite. The paper provides a convincing (natural, real) explanation of this fact.

Keywords: Galilean moons, polarization, degree of polarization, photometry, front and rear hemispheres

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8685 Access to Higher Education in Nigeria: The University of Calabar Pre-Degree Programme Experience

Authors: Eni I. Eni, James Okon, Ashang J. Ashang

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The pre-degree programme of the University of Calabar was introduced to help increase access to tertiary Education in science related courses. This has become necessary due to population increase and public awareness. Its main objective was to provide access to candidates from educationally less developed states (ELDS) and states within its catchment area. To find out if this objective of the programme has been achieved, an impact evaluation of the programme was conducted, from where the aspect of providing access to University Education was reported here. It was reasoned that if this objective of the programme was properly implemented, there should be an evidence of increase in the access to University Education. To achieve the purpose of this study, two research questions were formulated; expost-facto research design and purposive sampling technique were adopted for the study. Data was collected from the Faculty of Science and analyzed using descriptive statistics in terms of frequencies and percentages. The result of data analysis showed that the pre-degree programme of the University of Calabar has provided educational access to Nigerians especially those from educationally less developed states in science related courses. It was therefore recommended that the programme be sustained and further be improved upon to facilitate its continued provision of access to University Education in Nigeria.

Keywords: higher education, pre-degree programme, University of Calabar, educationally less developed states

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8684 Decision Support for Modularisation: Engineering Construction Case Studies

Authors: Rolla Monib, Chris Ian Goodier, Alistair Gibb

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This paper aims to investigate decision support strategies in the EC sector to determine the most appropriate degree of modularization. This is achieved through three oil and gas (O&G) and two power plant case studies via semi-structured interviews (n=59 and n=27, respectively), analysis of project documents, and case study-specific semi-structured validation interviews (n=12 and n=8). New terminology to distinguish degrees of modularization is proposed, along with a decision-making support checklist and a diagrammatic decision-making support figure. Results indicate that the EC sub-sectors were substantially more satisfied with the application of component, structural, or traditional modularization compared with system modularization for some types of modules. Key drivers for decisions on the degree of modularization vary across module types. This paper can help the EC sector determine the most suitable degree of modularization via a decision-making support strategy.

Keywords: modularization, engineering construction, case study, decision support

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8683 Impact of Sunflower Oil Supplemented Diet on Performance and Hematological Stress Indicators of Growing-Finishing Pigs Exposed to Hot Environment

Authors: Angela Cristina Da F. De Oliveira, Salma E. Asmar, Norbert P. Battlori, Yaz Vera, Uriel R. Valencia, Tâmara Duarte Borges, Antoni D. Bueno, Leandro Batista Costa

Abstract:

As homeothermic animals, pigs manifest maximum performance when kept at comfortable temperature levels, represented by a limit where thermoregulatory processes are minimal (18 - 20°C). In a stress situation where it will have a higher energy demand for thermal maintenance, the energy contribution to the productive functions will be reduced, generating health imbalances, drop in productive rates and welfare problems. The hypothesis of this project is that 5% starch replacement per 5% sunflower oil (SO), in growing and finishing pig’s diet (Iberic x Duroc), is effective as a nutritional strategy to reduce the negative impacts of thermal stress on performance and animal welfare. Seventy-two crossbred males (51± 6,29 kg body weight- BW) were housed according to the initial BW, in climate-controlled rooms, in collective pens, and exposed to heat stress conditions (30 - 32°C; 35% to 50% humidity). The experiment lasted 90 days, and it was carried out in a randomized block design, in a 2 x 2 factorial, composed of two diets (starch or sunflower oil (with or without) and two feed intake management (ad libitum and restriction). The treatments studied were: 1) control diet (5% starch x 0% SO) with ad libitum intake (n = 18); 2) SO diet (replacement of 5% of starch per 5% SO) with ad libitum intake (n = 18); 3) control diet with restriction feed intake (n = 18); or 4) SO diet with restriction feed intake (n = 18). Feed was provided in two phases, 50–100 Kg BW for growing and 100-140 Kg BW for finishing period, respectively. Hematological, biochemical and growth performance parameters were evaluated on all animals at the beginning of the environmental treatment, on the transition of feed (growing to finishing) and in the final of experiment. After the experimental period, when animals reached a live weight of 130-140 kg, they were slaughtered by carbon dioxide (CO2) stunning. Data have shown for the growing phase no statistical interaction between diet (control x SO) and management feed intake (ad libitum x restriction) on animal performance. At finishing phase, pigs fed with SO diet with restriction feed intake had the same average daily gain (ADG) compared with pigs in control diet with ad libitum feed intake. Furthermore, animals fed with the same diet (SO), presented a better feed gain (p < 0,05) due to feed intake reduce (p < 0,05) when compared with control group. To hematological and biochemical parameters, animals under heat stress had an increase in hematocrit, corpuscular volume, urea concentration, creatinine, calcium, alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase (p < 0,05) when compared with the beginning of experiment. These parameters were efficient to characterize the heat stress, although the experimental treatments were not able to reduce the hematological and biochemical stress indicators. In addition, the inclusion of SO on pig diets improve feed gain in pigs at finishing phase, even with restriction feed intake.

Keywords: hematological, performance, pigs, welfare

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8682 Forecasting Nokoué Lake Water Levels Using Long Short-Term Memory Network

Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

Abstract:

The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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8681 Effect of Whey Based Film Coatings on Various Properties of Kashar Cheese

Authors: Hawbash Jalil

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In this study, the effects of whey protein based films on various properties of kashar cheese were examined. In the study, edible film solutions based on whey protein isolate, whey protein isolate + transglutaminase enzyme and whey protein isolate + chitosan were produced and Kashar cheese samples were coated with these films by dipping method and stored at +4 ºC for 60 days. Chemical, microbiological and textural analyzes were carried out on samples at 0, 30 and 60 days of storage. As a result of the study, the highest dry matter and total nitrogen values were obtained from uncoated control samples This is an indication that the coatings limit water vapor permeability. The highest acidity and pH values obtained from the samples as storage results were 3.33% and 5.86%, respectively, in the control group samples. Both acidity and pH rise in these groups, is a consequence of the buffering of pH changes of hydrolsis products which are as a result of proteolysis occurring in the sample. Nitrogen changes and lipolysis values, which are indicative of the degree of hydrolysis of proteins and triglycerides in kashar cheese, were generally higher in the control group This result is due to limiting the micro organism reproduction by limiting the gas passage of the coatings. Hardness and chewiness values of the textural properties of the samples were significantly reduced in uncoated control samples compared to the coated samples due to maturation. The chitosan film coatings used in the study limited the development of mold yeast until the 30th day but after that did not yield successful results in this respect.

Keywords: chitosan, edible film, transglutaminase, whey protein

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8680 Allelopathic Potential of Canola and Wheat to Control Weeds in Soybean (Glycine max)

Authors: Alireza Dadkhah

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A filed experiment was done to develop management practices to reduce the use of synthetic herbicides, in the arid and semi-arid agricultural ecosystems of north east of Iran. Five treatments including I: chopped residues of canola (Brasica vulgaris), II: chopped residues of wheat (Triticum aestivum) both were separately incorporated to 25 cm depth soil, 20 days before sowing, III: shoot aqueous extract of canola, IV: shoot aqueous extract of wheat which were separately sprayed at post emergence stage and V: without any residues and spraying as control. The weed control treatments reduced the total weed cover, weed density and biomass of weed. The reduction in weed density with canola and wheat residues incorporation were up to 67.5 and 62.2% respectively, at 40 days after sowing and 65.3% and 75.6%, respectively, at 90 days after sowing, compared to control. However, post emergence spraying of shoot aqueous extract of canola and wheat, suppressed weed density up to 41.8 and 36.6% at 40 days after sowing and 54.2% and 52.7% at 90 days after sowing respectively, compared to control. Weed control treatments reduced weed cover (%), weed biomass and weeds stem length. Incorporation of canola and wheat residues in soil reduced weed cover (%) by 62.5% and 63% respectively, while spraying of shoot water extract of canola and wheat suppressed weed cover (%) by 39.6% and 40.4% respectively at 90 days after sowing. Application of canola and wheat residues increased soybean yield by 45.4% and 69.5% respectively, compared to control while post emergence application of shoot aqueous extract of canola and wheat increased soybean yield by 22% and 29.8% respectively.

Keywords: allelopathy, Bio-herbicide, Brassica oleracea, plant residues, Triticum aestivum

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8679 Effect of Feed Supplement Optipartum C+ 200 (Alfa- Amylase and Beta-Glucanase) in In-Line Rumination Parameters

Authors: Ramūnas Antanaitis, Lina Anskienė, Robertas Stoškus

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This study was conducted during 2021.05.01 – 2021.08.31 at the Lithuanian University of health sciences and one Lithuanian dairy farm with 500 dairy cows (55.911381565736, 21.881321760608195). Average calving – 50 cows per month. Cows (n=20) in the treatment group (TG) were fed with feed supplement Optipartum C+ 200 (Enzymes: Alfa- Amylase 57 Units; Beta-Glucanase 107 Units) from 21 days before calving till 30 days after calving with feeding rate 200g/cow/day. Cows in the control group (CG) were fed a feed ration without feed supplement. Measurements started from 6 days before calving and continued till 21 days after calving. The following indicators were registered: with the RumiWatch System: Rumination time; Eating time; Drinking time; Rumination chews; Eating chews; Drinking gulps; Bolus; Chews per minute; Chews per bolus. With SmaXtec system - the temperature, pH of the contents of cows' reticulorumens and cows' activity. According to our results, we found that feeding of cows, from 21 days before calving to 30 days after calving, with a feed supplement with alfa- amylase and beta-glucanase (Optipartum C+ 200) (with dose 200g/cow/day) can produce an increase in: 9% rumination time and eating time, 19% drinking time, 11% rumination chews, 16% eating chews,13% number of boluses per rumination, 5% chews per minute and 16% chews per bolus. We found 1.28 % lower reiticulorumen pH and 0.64% lower reticulorumen temperature in cows fed with the supplement compared with control group cows. Also, cows feeding with enzymes were 8.80% more active.

Keywords: Alfa-Amylase, Beta-Glucanase, cows, in-line, sensors

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8678 Project-Bbased Learning (PBL) Taken to Extremes: Full-Year/Full-Time PBL Replacement of Core Curriculum

Authors: Stephen Grant Atkins

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Radical use of project-based learning (PBL) in a small New Zealand business school provides an opportunity to longitudinally examine its effects over a decade of pre-Covid data. Prior to this business school’s implementation of PBL, starting in 2012, the business pedagogy literature presented just one example of PBL replacing an entire core-set of courses. In that instance, a British business school merged four of its ‘degree Year 3’ accounting courses into one PBL semester. As radical as that would have seemed, to students aged 20-to-22, the PBL experiment conducted in a New Zealand business school was notably more extreme: 41 nationally-approved Learning Outcomes (L.O.s), these deriving from 8 separate core courses, were aggregated into one grand set of L.O.s, and then treated as a ‘full-year’/‘full-time’ single course. The 8 courses in question were all components of this business school’s compulsory ‘degree Year 1’ curriculum. Thus, the students involved were notably younger (…ages 17-to-19…), and no ‘part-time’ enrolments were allowed. Of interest are this PBL experiment’s effects on subsequent performance outcomes in ‘degree Years 2 & 3’ (….which continued to operate in their traditional ways). Of special interest is the quality of ‘group project’ outcomes. This is because traditionally, ‘degree Year 1’ course assessments are only minimally based on group work. This PBL experiment altered that practice radically, such that PBL ‘degree Year 1’ alumni entered their remaining two years of business coursework with far more ‘project group’ experience. Timeline-wise, thus of interest here, firstly, is ‘degree Year 2’ performance outcomes data from years 2010-2012 + 2016-2018, and likewise ‘degree Year 3’ data for years 2011-2013 + 2017-2019. Those years provide a pre-&-post comparative baseline for performance outcomes in students never exposed to this school’s radical PBL experiment. That baseline is then compared to PBL alumni outcomes (2013-2016….including’Student Evaluation of Course Quality’ outcomes…) to clarify ‘radical PBL’ effects.

Keywords: project-based learning, longitudinal mixed-methods, students criticism, effects-on-learning

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8677 The Evaluation of the Cognitive Training Program for Older Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment: Protocol of a Randomized Controlled Study

Authors: Hui-Ling Yang, Kuei-Ru Chou

Abstract:

Background: Studies show that cognitive training can effectively delay cognitive failure. However, there are several gaps in the previous studies of cognitive training in mild cognitive impairment: 1) previous studies enrolled mostly healthy older adults, with few recruiting older adults with cognitive impairment; 2) they also had limited generalizability and lacked long-term follow-up data and measurements of the activities of daily living functional impact. Moreover, only 37% were randomized controlled trials (RCT). 3) Limited cognitive training has been specifically developed for mild cognitive impairment. Objective: This study sought to investigate the changes in cognitive function, activities of daily living and degree of depressive symptoms in older adults with mild cognitive impairment after cognitive training. Methods: This double-blind randomized controlled study has a 2-arm parallel group design. Study subjects are older adults diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment in residential care facilities. 124 subjects will be randomized by the permuted block randomization, into intervention group (Cognitive training, CT), or active control group (Passive information activities, PIA). Therapeutic adherence, sample attrition rate, medication compliance and adverse events will be monitored during the study period, and missing data analyzed using intent-to-treat analysis (ITT). Results: Training sessions of the CT group are 45 minutes/day, 3 days/week, for 12 weeks (36 sessions each). The training of active control group is the same as CT group (45min/day, 3days/week, for 12 weeks, for a total of 36 sessions). The primary outcome is cognitive function, using the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE); the secondary outcome indicators are: 1) activities of daily living, using the Lawton’s Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs) and 2) degree of depressive symptoms, using the Geriatric Depression Scale-Short form (GDS-SF). Latent growth curve modeling will be used in the repeated measures statistical analysis to estimate the trajectory of improvement by examining the rate and pattern of change in cognitive functions, activities of daily living and degree of depressive symptoms for intervention efficacy over time, and the effects will be evaluated immediate post-test, 3 months, 6 months and one year after the last session. Conclusions: We constructed a rigorous CT program adhering to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) reporting guidelines. We expect to determine the improvement in cognitive function, activities of daily living and degree of depressive symptoms of older adults with mild cognitive impairment after using the CT.

Keywords: mild cognitive impairment, cognitive training, randomized controlled study

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8676 Endoscopic Stenting of the Main Pancreatic Duct in Patients With Pancreatic Fluid Collections After Pancreas Transplantation

Authors: Y. Teterin, S. Suleymanova, I. Dmitriev, P. Yartcev

Abstract:

Introduction: One of the most common complications after pancreas transplantation are pancreatic fluid collections (PFCs), which are often complicated not only by infection and subsequent disfunction of the pancreatoduodenal graft (PDG), but also with a rather high mortality rate of recipients. Drainage is not always effective and often requires repeated open surgical interventions, which worsens the outcome of the surgery. Percutaneous drainage of PFCs combined with endoscopic stenting of the main pancreatic duct of the pancreatoduodenal graft (MPDPDG) showed high efficiency in the treatment of PFCs. Aims & Methods: From 01.01.2012 to 31.12.2021 at the Sklifosovsky Research Institute for Emergency Medicine were performed 64 transplantations of PDG. In 11 cases (17.2%), the early postoperative period was complicated by the formation of PFCs. Of these, 7 patients underwent percutaneous drainage of pancreonecrosis with high efficiency and did not required additional methods of treatment. In the remaining 4 patients, drainage was ineffective and was an indication for endoscopic stenting of the MPDPDG. They were the ones who made up the study group. Among them were 3 men and 1 woman. The mean age of the patients was 36,4 years.PFCs in these patients formed on days 1, 12, 18, and 47 after PDG transplantation. We used a gastroscope to stent the MPDPDG, due to anatomical features of the location of the duodenoduodenal anastomosis after PDG transplantation. Through the endoscope channel was performed selective catheterization of the MPDPDG, using a catheter and a guidewire, followed by its contrasting with a water-soluble contrast agent. Due to the extravasation of the contrast, was determined the localization of the defect in the PDG duct system. After that, a plastic pancreatic stent with a diameter of 7 Fr. and a length of 7 cm. was installed along guidewire. The stent was installed in such a way that its proximal edge completely covered the defect zone, and the distal one was determined in the intestinal lumen. Results: In all patients PDG pancreaticography revealed extravasation of a contrast in the area of the isthmus and body of the pancreas, which required stenting of the MPDPDG. In 1 (25%) case, the patient had a dislocation of the stent into the intestinal lumen (III degree according to Clavien-Dindo (2009)). This patient underwent repeated endoscopic stenting of the MPDPDG. On average 23 days after endoscopic stenting of the MPDPDG, the drainage tubes were removed and after approximately 40 days all patients were discharged in a satisfactory condition with follow-up endocrinologist and surgeon consultation. Pancreatic stents were removed after 6 months ± 7 days. Conclusion: Endoscopic stenting of the main pancreatic duct of the donor pancreas is by far the most highly effective and minimally invasive method in the treatment of PFCs after transplantation of the pancreatoduodenal complex.

Keywords: pancreas transplantation, endoscopy surgery, diabetes, stenting, main pancreatic duct

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8675 Anaerobic Digestion of Organic Wastes for Biogas Production

Authors: Ayhan Varol, Aysenur Ugurlu

Abstract:

Due to the depletion of fossil fuels and climate change, there is a rising interest in renewable energy sources. In this concept, a wide range of biomass (energy crops, animal manure, solid wastes, etc.) are used for energy production. There has been a growing interest in biomethane production from biomass. Biomethane production from organic wastes is a promising alternative for waste management by providing organic matter stabilization. Anaerobic digestion of organic material produces biogas, and organic substrate is degraded into a more stable material. Therefore, anaerobic digestion technology helps reduction of carbon emissions and produces renewable energy. The hydraulic retention time (HRT) and organic loading rate (OLR), as well as TS (VS) loadings, influences the anaerobic digestion of organic wastes significantly. The optimum range for HRT varies between 15 days to 30 days, whereas OLR differs between 0.5 to 5 g/L.d depending on the substrate type and its lipid, protein and carbohydrate contents. The organic wastes have biogas production potential through anaerobic digestion. In this study, biomethane production potential of wastes like sugar beet bagasse, agricultural residues, food wastes, olive mill pulp, and dairy manure having different characteristics was investigated in mesophilic CSTR reactor, and their performances were compared. The reactor was mixed in order to provide homogenized content at a rate of 80 rpm. The organic matter content of these wastes was between 85 to 94 % with 61% (olive pulp) to 22 % (food waste) dry matter content. The hydraulic retention time changed between 20-30 days. High biogas productions, 13.45 to 5.70 mL/day, were achieved from the wastes studied when operated at 9 to 10.5% TS loadings where OLR varied between 2.92 and 3.95 gVS/L.day. The results showed that food wastes have higher specific methane production rate and volumetric methane production potential than the other wastes studied, under the similar OLR values. The SBP was 680, 585, 540, 390 and 295 mL/g VS for food waste, agricultural residues, sugar beet bagasse, olive pulp and dairy manure respectively. The methane content of the biogas varied between 72 and 60 %. The volatile solids conversion rate for food waste was 62%.

Keywords: biogas production, organic wastes, biomethane, anaerobic digestion

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8674 Managing IT Departments in Higher Education Institutes: Coping with the Exponentially Growing Needs and Expectations

Authors: Balqees A. Al-Thuhli, Ali H. Al-Badi, Khamis Al-Gharbi

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Information technology is changing rapidly and the users’ expectations are also growing. Dealing with these changes in information technology, while satisfying the users’ needs and expectations is a big challenge. IT managers need to explore new mechanisms/strategies to enable them to cope with such challenges. The objectives of this research are to identify the significant challenges that might face IT managers in higher education institutes in the face of the high and ever growing customer expectations and to propose possible solutions to cope with such high-speed changes in information technology. To achieve these objectives, interviews with the IT professionals from different higher education institutes in Oman were conducted. In addition, documentation (printed and online) related to these institutions were studied and an intensive literature review of published work was examined. The findings of this research are expected to give a better understanding of the challenges that might face the IT managers at higher education institutes. This acquired understanding is expected to highlight the importance of being adaptable and fast in keeping up with the ever-growing technological changes. Moreover, adopting different tools and technologies could assist IT managers in developing their organisations’ IT policies and strategies.

Keywords: information technology, rapid change, CIO roles, challenges, IT managers, coping mechanisms, users' expectations

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8673 Comparison of Serum Protein Fraction between Healthy and Diarrhea Calf by Electrophoretogram

Authors: Jinhee Kang, Kwangman Park, Ruhee Song, Suhee Kim, Do-Hyeon Yu, Kyoungseong Choi, Jinho Park

Abstract:

Statement of the Problem: Animal blood components maintain homeostasis when animals are healthy, and changes in chemical composition of the blood and body fluids can be observed if animals have a disease. In particular, newborn calves are susceptible to disease and therefore hematologic tests and serum chemistry tests could become an important guideline to the diagnosis and the treatment of diseases. Diarrhea in newborn calves is the most damaging to cattle ranch, whether dairy or cattle fattening, and is a large part of calf atrophy and death. However, since the study on calf electrophoresis was not carried out, a survey analysis was conducted on it. Methodology and Theoretical Orientation: The calves were divided into healthy calves and disease (diarrhea) calves, and calves were classified by 1-14d, 15-28d, and more than 28d, respectively. The fecal state was classified by solid (0-value), semi-solid (1-value), loose (2-value) and watery (3-value). In the solid (0-value) and semi-solid (1-value) feces valuable pathogen was not detected, but loose (2-value) and watery (3-value) feces were detected. Findings: ALB, α-1, α-2, α-SUM, β and γ (Gamma) were examined by electrophoresis analysis of healthy calves and diarrhea calves. Test results showed that there were age differences between healthy calves and diarrheic calves. When we look at the γ-globulin at 1-14 days of age, we can see that the average calf of healthy calves is 16.8% and the average of diarrheal calves is 7.7%, when we look at the figures for the α-2 at 1-14 days, we found that healthy calves average 5.2% and diarrheal calves 8.7% higher than healthy cows. On α-1, 15-28 days, and after 28 days, healthy calves average 10.4% and diarrheal calves average 7.5% diarrhea calves were 12.6% and 12.4% higher than healthy calves. In the α-SUM, the healthy calves were 21.6%, 16.8%, and 14.5%, respectively, after 1-14 days, 15-28 days and 28 days. diarrheal calves were 23.1%, 19.5%, and 19.8%. Conclusion and Significance: In this study, we examined the electrophoresis results of healthy calves and diseased (diarrhea) calves, gamma globulin at 1-14 days of age were lower than those of healthy calves (diarrhea), indicating that the calf was unable to consume colostrum from the mother when it was a new calf. α-1, α-2, α-SUM may be associated with an acute inflammatory response as a result of increased levels of calves with diarrhea (diarrhea). Further research is needed to investigate the effects of acute inflammatory responses on additional calf-forming proteins. Information on the results of the electrophoresis test will be provided where necessary according to the item.

Keywords: alpha, electrophoretogram, serum protein, γ, gamma

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8672 Universiti Sains Malaysia

Authors: Eisa A. Alsafran, Francis T. Edum-Fotwe, Wayne E. Lord

Abstract:

The degree to which a public client actively participates in Public Private Partnership (PPP) schemes, is seen as a determinant of the success of the arrangement, and in particular, efficiency in the delivery of the assets of any infrastructure development. The asset delivery is often an early barometer for judging the overall performance of the PPP. Currently, there are no defined descriptors for the degree of such participation. The lack of defined descriptors makes the association between the degree of participation and efficiency of asset delivery, difficult to establish. This is particularly so if an optimum effect is desired. In addition, such an association is important for the strategic decision to embark on any PPP initiative. This paper presents a conceptual model of different levels of participation that characterise PPP schemes. The modelling was achieved by a systematic review of reported sources that address essential aspects and structures of PPP schemes, published from 2001 to 2015. As a precursor to the modelling, the common areas of Public Client Participation (PCP) were investigated. Equity and risk emerged as two dominant factors in the common areas of PCP, and were therefore adopted to form the foundation of the modelling. The resultant conceptual model defines the different states of combined PCP. The defined states provide a more rational basis for establishing how the degree of PCP affects the efficiency of asset delivery in PPP schemes.

Keywords: asset delivery, infrastructure development, public private partnership, public client participation

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8671 Influence of Metakaolin and Cements Types on Compressive Strength and Transport Properties of Self-Consolidating Concrete

Authors: Kianoosh Samimi, Farhad Estakhr, Mahdi Mahdikhani, Faramaz Moodi

Abstract:

The self-consolidating concrete (SCC) performance over ordinary concrete is generally related to the ingredients used. The metakaolin can modify various properties of concrete, due to high pozzolanic reactions and also makes a denser microstructure. The objective of this paper is to examine the influence of three types of Portland cement and metakaolin on compressive strength and transport properties of SCC at early ages and up to 90 days. Six concrete mixtures were prepared with three types of different cements and substitution of 15% metakaolin. The results show that the highest value of compressive strength was achieved for Portland Slag Cement (PSC) and without any metakaolin at age of 90 days. Conversely, the lowest level of compressive strength at all ages of conservation was obtained for Pozzolanic Portland Cement (PPC) and containing 15% metakaolin. As can be seen in the results, compressive strength in SCC containing Portland cement type II with metakaolin is higher compared to that relative to SCC without metakaolin from 28 days of age. On the other hand, the samples containing PSC and PPC with metakaolin had a lower compressive strength than the plain samples. Therefore, it can be concluded that metakaolin has a negative effect on the compressive strength of SCC containing PSC and PPC. In addition, results show that metakaolin has enhanced chloride durability of SCCs and reduced capillary water absorption at 28, 90 days.

Keywords: SCC, metakaolin, cement type, compressive strength, chloride diffusion

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8670 Density Interaction in Determinate and Indeterminate Faba Bean Types

Authors: M. Abd El Hamid Ezzat

Abstract:

Two field trials were conducted to study the effect of plant densities i.e., 190, 222, 266, 330 and 440 10³ plants ha⁻¹ on morphological characters, physiological and yield attributes of two faba bean types viz. determinate (FLIP-87 -117 strain) and indeterminate (c.v. Giza-461). The results showed that the indeterminate plants significantly surpassed the determinate plants in plant height at 75 and 90 days from sowing, number of leaves at all growth stages and dry matter accumulation at 45 and 90 days from sowing. Determinate plants possessed greater number of side branches than that of the indeterminate plants, but it was only significant at 90 days from sowing. Greater number of flowers were produced by the indeterminate plants than that of the determinate plants at 75 and 90 days from sowing, and although shedding was obvious in both types, it was greater in the determinate plants as compared with the indeterminate one at 90 days from sowing. Increasing plant density resulted in reductions in number of leaves, branches flowers and dry matter accumulation per plant of both faba bean types. However, plant height criteria took a reversible magnitude. Moreover, under all rates of plant densities the indeterminate type plants surpassed the determinate plants in all growth characters studied except for number of branches per plant at 90 days from sowing. The indeterminate plant leaves significantly contained greater concentrations of photosynthetic pigments i.e., chl. a, b and carotenoids than those found in the determinate plant leaves. Also, the data showed significant reduction in photosynthetic pigments concentration as planting density increases. Light extinction coefficient (K) values reached their maximum level at 60 days from sowing, then it declined sharply at 75 days from sowing. The data showed that the illumination inside the determinate faba bean canopies was better than the indeterminate plants. (K) values tended to increase as planting density increases, meanwhile, significant interactions were reported between faba bean type as planting density on (K) at all growth stages. Both of determinate and indeterminate faba bean plant leaves reached their maximum expansion at 75 days from sowing reflecting the highest LAI values, then their declined in the subsequent growth stage. The indeterminate faba bean plants significantly surpassed the determinate plants in LAI up to 75 days from sowing. Growth analysis showed that NAR, RGR and CGR reached their maximum rates at (60-75 days growth stage). Faba bean types did not differ significantly in NAR at the early growth stage. The indeterminate plants were able to grow faster with significant CGR values than the determinate plants. The indeterminate faba bean plants surpassed the determinate ones in number of seeds/pod and per plant, 100-seed weight, seed yield per plant and per hectare at all rates of plant density. Seed yield increased with increasing plant densities of both types. The highest seed yield was attained for both types 440 103 plants ha⁻¹.

Keywords: determinate, indeterminate faba bean, Physiological attributes, yield attributes

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8669 Environmental Effect on Yield and Quality of French Bean Genotypes Grown in Poly-Net House of India

Authors: Ramandeep Kaur, Tarsem Singh Dhillon, Rajinder Kumar Dhall, Ruma Devi

Abstract:

French bean (Phaseolous vulgaris L.) is an economically potential legume vegetable grown at high altitude (>1000 ft.). More recently, its cultivation in Northern Indian plans is gaining popularity but there is severe reduction in its yield and quality due to low temperature during extreme winter conditions of December-January in open field conditions. Therefore, present study was undertaken to evaluate 29 indeterminate French bean genotypes for various yield and quality traits in poly-net house with the objective to identify best performing genotypes during winter conditions. The significant variation was observed among all the genotypes for all the studied traits. The green pod yield was significantly higher in genotype Lakshmi (992.33 g/plant) followed by Star-I (955.50 g/plant) and FBK-4 (911.17 g/plant). However, the genotypes FBK-10 (105.50 days) and Lakshmi (106.83 days) took least number of days to first harvest and were significantly better than all other genotypes (109.00-136.83 days). The maximum numbers of 10 pickings were recorded in genotype Lakshmi whereas maximum harvesting span as also observed in Lakshmi (60.50 days) which was significantly higher than all other genotypes (31.17-56.50 days). Regarding quality traits, maximum dry matter was observed in FBK-13 (13.87%), protein content in FBK-1 (9.67%), sugar content in FBK-5 (9.60%) and minimum fiber content in FBK-12 (0.69%). It is hereby concluded that high productivity and better quality of French bean (genotypes: Lakshmi, Star-I, FBK-4) was produced in poly-net house conditions of Punjab, India and these pods fetches premium price in the market as there is no availability of green pods at that time in high altitudes. Hence, there is a great scope of cultivation of indeterminate French bean under poly-net house conditions in Punjab.

Keywords: earliness, pod, protected environment, quality, yield

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8668 Examining the Impact of Degrees of Slag Replacement on the Carbonation Process of Slag-Blended Cement

Authors: Geta Bekalu Belayneh, Solmoi Park

Abstract:

This study examines the role of slag in the process of hydration and carbonation of carbonation-cured slag cement. Carbonation-cured slag-blended cement paste samples were prepared with varying slag percentages of 0%, 10%, 30%, and 50%. The curing process lasted for a maximum of 28 days. The findings demonstrated that the carbonation depth increased as the curing period was extended, and a larger slag percentage promoted a more extensive penetration of carbonation. The degree of belite reaction was greatly enhanced in the slag-blended cement, resulting in an increased ability to bind CO₂ in the blended cement. These findings enhance comprehension of the behaviour of blended cement produced through carbonation-curing, facilitating the advancement of more environmentally friendly and long-lasting concrete constructions.

Keywords: carbonation curing, blast furnace slag, characterization, Portland cement

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8667 A Minimum Spanning Tree-Based Method for Initializing the K-Means Clustering Algorithm

Authors: J. Yang, Y. Ma, X. Zhang, S. Li, Y. Zhang

Abstract:

The traditional k-means algorithm has been widely used as a simple and efficient clustering method. However, the algorithm often converges to local minima for the reason that it is sensitive to the initial cluster centers. In this paper, an algorithm for selecting initial cluster centers on the basis of minimum spanning tree (MST) is presented. The set of vertices in MST with same degree are regarded as a whole which is used to find the skeleton data points. Furthermore, a distance measure between the skeleton data points with consideration of degree and Euclidean distance is presented. Finally, MST-based initialization method for the k-means algorithm is presented, and the corresponding time complexity is analyzed as well. The presented algorithm is tested on five data sets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The experimental results illustrate the effectiveness of the presented algorithm compared to three existing initialization methods.

Keywords: degree, initial cluster center, k-means, minimum spanning tree

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8666 The Association between Saharran Dust and Emergency Department Admission and Hospitalization in Gaziantep, Turkey

Authors: Behcet Al, Mustafa Bogan, Mehmet Murat Oktay, Suat Zengin, Hasan Bayram

Abstract:

Objective: In the last two decades there is a strong scientific interest regarding the role of aerosols for the Earth’s climate and associated changes. Aerosol particles are very important to the Earth-atmosphere climate system playing a crucial role in cloud and precipitation processes, air quality and climate. Here, we evaluated the association between saharran dust and emergency department admission, hospitalization, and mortality. Method: The records of admission to emergency department of Gaziantep University and the dust stroms of 31 months were studied. Patients admitted to ED at dust strom with chronic obstructive lung disease (COLD), asthma bronchiale (AB), serebrovascular events (SVE), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stabile and unstabile angina pectoris (SAAP andUSAP); and the days with and without dust stroms were included. The study was realized from March 2010 to October 2012. The admission of three days before strom (group 1), during strom days (group 2) and three days after strom (group 3) were determined. The mean level of dust PM10 particulate was calculated, and the results were compared. Results: 5864 patients with chronic obstructive lung disease, asthma bronchiale, serebrovascular events, acute myocardial infarction, stabile and unstabile angyina pectoris admitted during the days with and without dust stroms. 28 dust stroms ocurred during 31 months. The totaliy of stroms continiued 78 days. Of admissions, 35.5% (n=2075) were in group1, 29.8% (n=1746) in group 2, and 34.8% (n=2043) were in group 3. The mean of PM10 for groups (group 1, 2 and 3) were 78.53 mg/m3 (range 19–276) particulate, 108.7 mg/m3 (range 34–631) particulate, and 60.9 mg/m3 (range 17–160) particulate respectively. The mean admission per a day for groups were 24.86, 22.55, and 24.50 respectively. The mortality was 12 in group 1, 12 in group 2, and 17 in grou 3. The hospitalization ratio for groups were 0.24, 0.27, and 0.27 respectively. Conclusion: However, the mean level of PM10 particulate for groups 2 (in dust strom days) is significantly higher (p=0.001) than the days before (group 1) and after (group 3) dust stroms, the mean admissions/day, hostilalization and mortality related to deseases (COLD, AB, SVE, AMI, SAAP andUSA) for group 2 is lower than the group 1 and group 3.

Keywords: Saharran dust, PM10 particulate, emergency department admission, mortality

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8665 Biogas Potential of Deinking Sludge from Wastepaper Recycling Industry: Influence of Dewatering Degree and High Calcium Carbonate Content

Authors: Moses Kolade Ogun, Ina Korner

Abstract:

To improve on the sustainable resource management in the wastepaper recycling industry, studies into the valorization of wastes generated by the industry are necessary. The industry produces different residues, among which is the deinking sludge (DS). The DS is generated from the deinking process and constitutes a major fraction of the residues generated by the European pulp and paper industry. The traditional treatment of DS by incineration is capital intensive due to energy requirement for dewatering and the need for complementary fuel source due to DS low calorific value. This could be replaced by a biotechnological approach. This study, therefore, investigated the biogas potential of different DS streams (different dewatering degrees) and the influence of the high calcium carbonate content of DS on its biogas potential. Dewatered DS (solid fraction) sample from filter press and the filtrate (liquid fraction) were collected from a partner wastepaper recycling company in Germany. The solid fraction and the liquid fraction were mixed in proportion to realize DS with different water content (55–91% fresh mass). Spiked samples of DS using deionized water, cellulose and calcium carbonate were prepared to simulate DS with varying calcium carbonate content (0– 40% dry matter). Seeding sludge was collected from an existing biogas plant treating sewage sludge in Germany. Biogas potential was studied using a 1-liter batch test system under the mesophilic condition and ran for 21 days. Specific biogas potential in the range 133- 230 NL/kg-organic dry matter was observed for DS samples investigated. It was found out that an increase in the liquid fraction leads to an increase in the specific biogas potential and a reduction in the absolute biogas potential (NL-biogas/ fresh mass). By comparing the absolute biogas potential curve and the specific biogas potential curve, an optimal dewatering degree corresponding to a water content of about 70% fresh mass was identified. This degree of dewatering is a compromise when factors such as biogas yield, reactor size, energy required for dewatering and operation cost are considered. No inhibitory influence was observed in the biogas potential of DS due to the reported high calcium carbonate content of DS. This study confirms that DS is a potential bioresource for biogas production. Further optimization such as nitrogen supplementation due to DS high C/N ratio can increase biogas yield.

Keywords: biogas, calcium carbonate, deinking sludge, dewatering, water content

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8664 Audit on the Use of T-MACS Decision Aid for Patients Presenting to ED with Chest Pain

Authors: Saurav Dhawan, Sanchit Bansal

Abstract:

Background T-MACS is a computer-based decision aid that ‘rules in’ and ‘rules out’ ACS using a combination of the presence or absence of six clinical features with only one biomarker measured on arrival: hs-cTnT. T-MACS had 99.3% negative predictive value and 98.7% sensitivity for ACS, ‘ruling out’ ACS in 40% of patients while ‘ruling in’ 5% at the highest risk. We aim at benchmarking the use of T-MACS which could help to conserve healthcare resources, facilitate early discharges, and ensure safe practice. Methodology Randomized retrospective data collection (n=300) was done from ED electronic records across 3 hospital sites within MFT over a period of 2 months. Data was analysed and compared by percentage for the usage of T-MACS, number of admissions/discharges, and in days for length of stay in hospital. Results MRI A&E had the maximum compliance with the use of T-MACS in the trust at 66%, with minimum admissions (44%) and an average length of stay of 1.825 days. NMG A&E had an extremely low compliance rate (8 %), with 75% admission and 3.387 days as the average length of stay. WYT A&E had no TMACS recorded, with a maximum of 79% admissions and the longest average length of stay at 5.07 days. Conclusion All three hospital sites had a RAG rating of ‘RED’ as per the compliance levels. The assurance level was calculated as ‘Very Limited’ across all sites. There was a positive correlation observed between compliance with TMACS and direct discharges from ED, thereby reducing the average length of stay for patients in the hospital.

Keywords: ACS, discharges, ED, T-MACS

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8663 Protective Effect of Levetiracetam on Aggravation of Memory Impairment in Temporal Lobe Epilepsy by Phenytoin

Authors: Asher John Mohan, Krishna K. L.

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Objectives: (1) To assess the extent of memory impairment induced by Phenytoin (PHT) at normal and reduced dose on temporal lobe epileptic mice. (2) To evaluate the protective effect of Levetiracetam (LEV) on aggravation of memory impairment in temporal lobe epileptic mice by PHT. Materials and Methods: Albino mice of either sex (n=36) were used for the study for a period of 64 days. Convulsions were induced by intraperitoneal administration of pilocarpine 280 mg/kg on every 6th day. Radial arm maze (RAM) was employed to evaluate the memory impairment activity on every 7th day. The anticonvulsant and memory impairment activity were assessed in PHT normal and reduced doses both alone and in combination with LEV. RAM error scores and convulsive scores were the parameters considered for this study. Brain acetylcholine esterase and glutamate were determined along with histopathological studies of frontal cortex. Results: Administration of PHT for 64 days on mice has shown aggravation of memory impairment activity on temporal lobe epileptic mice. Although the reduction in PHT dose was found to decrease the degree of memory impairment the same decreased the anticonvulsant potency. The combination with LEV not only brought about the correction of impaired memory but also replaced the loss of potency due to the reduction of the dose of the antiepileptic drug employed. These findings were confirmed with enzyme and neurotransmitter levels in addition to histopathological studies. Conclusion: This study thus builds a foundation in combining a nootropic anticonvulsant with an antiepileptic drug to curb the adverse effect of memory impairment associated with temporal lobe epilepsy. However further extensive research is a must for the practical incorporation of this approach into disease therapy.

Keywords: anti-epileptic drug, Phenytoin, memory impairment, Pilocarpine

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8662 Authorship Patterns in the Literature on English and Literary Studies of Bayero University, Kano: 2007 – 2017

Authors: Murtala Musa

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The purpose of this study was to look at the authorship patterns of Master's Degree Dissertations submitted to the Department of English and Literary Studies at Bayero University in Kano between 2007 and 2017, with the goal of determining the pattern and degree of collaboration between authors. The study was conducted utilizing quantitative research methods and an Ex-post factor research design. A total of 176 copies of Masters Dissertations were examined, yielding a total of 12061 citations. The data collection instrument was a citation analysis checklist created by the researcher. Subramanyam's Law of Collaboration of Authors was used to determine the degree of collaboration among authors using descriptive statistics such as tables, frequency distributions, percentages, and charts. Single-authored publications, followed by double-authored articles, accounted for the majority of the contributions.

Keywords: authorship patterns, bibliometrics, English and Literary studies, citation analysis

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8661 South-Mediterranean Oaks Forests Management in Changing Climate Case of the National Park of Tlemcen-Algeria

Authors: K. Bencherif, M. Bellifa

Abstract:

The expected climatic changes in North Africa are the increase of both intensity and frequencies of the summer droughts and a reduction in water availability during growing season. The exiting coppices and forest formations in the national park of Tlemcen are dominated by holm oak, zen oak and cork oak. These opened-fragmented structures don’t seem enough strong so to hope durable protection against climate change. According to the observed climatic tendency, the objective is to analyze the climatic context and its evolution taking into account the eventual behaving of the oak species during the next 20-30 years on one side and the landscaped context in relation with the most adequate sylvicultural models to choose and especially in relation with human activities on another side. The study methodology is based on Climatic synthesis and Floristic and spatial analysis. Meteorological data of the decade 1989-2009 are used to characterize the current climate. An another approach, based on dendrochronological analysis of a 120 years sample Aleppo pine stem growing in the park, is used so to analyze the climate evolution during one century. Results on the climate evolution during the 50 years obtained through climatic predictive models are exploited so to predict the climate tendency in the park. Spatially, in each forest unit of the Park, stratified sampling is achieved so to reduce the degree of heterogeneity and to easily delineate different stands using the GPS. Results from precedent study are used to analyze the anthropogenic factor considering the forecasts for the period 2025-2100, the number of warm days with a temperature over 25°C would increase from 30 to 70. The monthly mean temperatures of the maxima’s (M) and the minima’s (m) would pass respectively from 30.5°C to 33°C and from 2.3°C to 4.8°C. With an average drop of 25%, precipitations will be reduced to 411.37 mm. These new data highlight the importance of the risk fire and the water stress witch would affect the vegetation and the regeneration process. Spatial analysis highlights the forest and the agricultural dimensions of the park compared to the urban habitat and bare soils. Maps show both fragmentation state and forest surface regression (50% of total surface). At the level of the park, fires affected already all types of covers creating low structures with various densities. On the silvi cultural plan, Zen oak form in some places pure stands and this invasion must be considered as a natural tendency where Zen oak becomes the structuring specie. Climate-related changes have nothing to do with the real impact that South-Mediterranean forests are undergoing because human constraints they support. Nevertheless, hardwoods stand of oak in the national park of Tlemcen will face up to unexpected climate changes such as changing rainfall regime associated with a lengthening of the period of water stress, to heavy rainfall and/or to sudden cold snaps. Faced with these new conditions, management based on mixed uneven aged high forest method promoting the more dynamic specie could be an appropriate measure.

Keywords: global warming, mediterranean forest, oak shrub-lands, Tlemcen

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