Search results for: game outcome prediction

Authors: Rob Schindler

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Industry-standard methods of mitigating erosion of seabed sediments rely on ‘hard engineering’ approaches which have numerous environmental shortcomings: (1) direct loss of habitat by smothering of benthic species, (2) disruption of sediment transport processes, damaging geomorphic and ecosystem functionality (3) generation of secondary erosion problems, (4) introduction of material that may propagate non-local species, and (5) provision of pathways for the spread of invasive species. Recent studies have also revealed the importance of biological cohesion, the result of naturally occurring extra-cellular polymeric substances (EPS), in stabilizing natural sediments. Mimicking the strong bonding kinetics through the deliberate addition of EPS to sediments – henceforth termed ‘biostabilisation’ - offers a means in which to mitigate against erosion induced by structures or episodic increases in hydrodynamic forcing (e.g. storms and floods) whilst avoiding, or reducing, hard engineering. Here we present unique experiments that systematically examine how biostabilisation reduces scour around a monopile in a current, a first step to realizing the potential of this new method of scouring reduction for a wide range of engineering purposes in aquatic substrates. Experiments were performed in Plymouth University’s recirculating sediment flume which includes a recessed scour pit. The model monopile was 0.048 m in diameter, D. Assuming a prototype monopile diameter of 2.0 m yields a geometric ratio of 41.67. When applied to a 10 m prototype water depth this yields a model depth, d, of 0.24 m. The sediment pit containing the monopile was filled with different biostabilised substrata prepared using a mixture of fine sand (D50 = 230 μm) and EPS (Xanthan gum). Nine sand-EPS mixtures were examined spanning EPS contents of 0.0% < b0 < 0.50%. Scour development was measured using a laser point gauge along a 530 mm centreline at 10 mm increments at regular periods over 5 h. Maximum scour depth and excavated area were determined at different time steps and plotted against time to yield equilibrium values. After 5 hours the current was stopped and a detailed scan of the final scour morphology was taken. Results show that increasing EPS content causes a progressive reduction in the equilibrium depth and lateral extent of scour, and hence excavated material. Very small amounts equating to natural communities (< 0.1% by mass) reduce scour rate, depth and extent of scour around monopiles. Furthermore, the strong linear relationships between EPS content, equilibrium scour depth, excavation area and timescales of scouring offer a simple index on which to modify existing scour prediction methods. We conclude that the biostabilisation of sediments with EPS may offer a simple, cost-effective and ecologically sensitive means of reducing scour in a range of contexts including OWFs, bridge piers, pipeline installation, and void filling in rock armour. Biostabilisation may also reduce economic costs through (1) Use of existing site sediments, or waste dredged sediments (2) Reduced fabrication of materials, (3) Lower transport costs, (4) Less dependence on specialist vessels and precise sub-sea assembly. Further, its potential environmental credentials may allow sensitive use of the seabed in marine protection zones across the globe.

Keywords: biostabilisation, EPS, marine, scour

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Authors: D. Bianco, A. Sollazzo, M. Barbarino, G. Elia, A. Smoraldi, N. Favaloro

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The activities, described in the present paper, have been conducted in the framework of the HYPROB-New Program, carried out by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA) promoted and funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MIUR) in order to improve the National background on rocket engine systems for space applications. The Program has the strategic objective to improve National system and technology capabilities in the field of liquid rocket engines (LRE) for future Space Propulsion Systems applications, with specific regard to LOX/LCH4 technology. The main purpose of the HYPROB program is to design and build a Propulsion Test Facility (HIMP) allowing test activities on Liquid Thrusters. The development of skills in liquid rocket propulsion can only pass through extensive test campaign. Following its mission, CIRA has planned the development of new testing facilities and infrastructures for space propulsion characterized by adequate sizes and instrumentation. The IMP test cell is devoted to testing articles representative of small combustion chambers, fed with oxygen and methane, both in liquid and gaseous phase. This article describes the activities that have been carried out for the evaluation of the acoustic impact, and its consequent mitigation. The impact of the simulated acoustic disturbance has been evaluated, first, using an approximated method based on experimental data by Baumann and Coney, included in “Noise and Vibration Control Engineering” edited by Vér and Beranek. This methodology, used to evaluate the free-field radiation of jet in ideal acoustical medium, analyzes in details the jet noise and assumes sources acting at the same time. It considers as principal radiation sources the jet mixing noise, caused by the turbulent mixing of jet gas and the ambient medium. Empirical models, allowing a direct calculation of the Sound Pressure Level, are commonly used for rocket noise simulation. The model named after K. Eldred is probably one of the most exploited in this area. In this paper, an improvement of the Eldred Standard model has been used for a detailed investigation of the acoustical impact of the Hyprob facility. This new formulation contains an explicit expression for the acoustic pressure of each equivalent noise source, in terms of amplitude and phase, allowing the investigation of the sources correlation effects and their propagation through wave equations. In order to enhance the evaluation of the facility acoustic impact, including an assessment of the mitigation strategies to be set in place, a more advanced simulation campaign has been conducted using both an in-house code for noise propagation and scattering, and a commercial code for industrial noise environmental impact, CadnaA. The noise prediction obtained with the revised Eldred-based model has then been used for formulating an empirical/BEM (Boundary Element Method) hybrid approach allowing the evaluation of the barrier mitigation effect, at the design. This approach has been compared with the analogous empirical/ray-acoustics approach, implemented within CadnaA using a customized definition of sources and directivity factor. The resulting impact evaluation study is reported here, along with the design-level barrier optimization for noise mitigation.

Keywords: acoustic impact, industrial noise, mitigation, rocket noise

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Authors: Hao Huang

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INTRODUCTION: The Association of American Colleges and Universities (AACU) recommends the development of ‘high-impact practices,’ in an effort to increase rates of student retention and student engagement at undergraduate institutions. To achieve these goals, the Scripps College Humanities Institute and HI Fellows Seminar not only featured distinguished academics presenting their scholarship about current immigration policy and its consequences in the USA and around the world but integrated socially significant community leaders and creative activists/artivists in public talks, student workshops and collaborative art events. Students participated in experiential learning that involved guest personal presentations and discussions, oral history interviews that applied standard oral history methodologies, detailed cultural documentation, collaborative artistic interventions, and weekly posts in Internet Digital Learning Environment Sakai collaborative course forums and regular responses to other students’ comments. Our teaching pedagogies addressed the four learning styles outlined in Kolb’s Learning Style Inventory. PROJECT DESCRIPTION: Over the academic year 2017-18, the Scripps College Humanities Institute and HI Fellows Seminar presented a Fall 2017 topic, ‘The World at Our Doorsteps: Immigration and Deportation in Los Angeles’. Our purpose was to address how current federal government anti-immigration measures have affected many students of color, some of whom are immigrants, many of whom are related to and are friends with people who are impacted by the attitudes as well as the practices of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. In Spring 2018, we followed with the topic, ‘Exclusive Nationalisms: Global Migration and Immigration’. This addresses the rise of white supremacists who have ascended to position of power worldwide, in America, Europe, Russia, and xenophobic nationalisms in China, Myanmar and the Philippines. Recent scholarship has suggested the existence of categories of refugees beyond the political or social, who fit into the more inclusive category of migrants. ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES: Assessment methodologies not only included qualitative student interviews and quantitative student evaluations in standard rubric format, but also Outcome Assessments, Formative Evaluations, and Outside Guest Teacher feedback. These indicated that the most effective educational practices involved collaborative inquiry in undergraduate research, community-based learning, and capstone projects. Assessments of E-portfolios, written and oral coursework, and final creative projects with associated 10-12 page analytic paper revealed that students developed their understanding of how government and social organizations work; they developed communication skills that enhanced working with others from different backgrounds; they developed their ability to thoughtfully evaluate their course performance by adopting reflective practices; they gained analytic and interpretive skills that encouraged self-confidence and self- initiative not only academically, but also with regards to independent projects. CONCLUSION: Most importantly, the Scripps Humanities Institute experiential learning project spurred on real-world actions by our students, such as a public symposium on how to cope with bigots, a student tutoring program for immigrant staff children, student negotiations with the administration to establish meaningful, sustainable diversity and inclusion programs on-campus. Activism is not only to be taught to and for our students– it has to be enacted by our students.

Keywords: immigration, migration, human rights, learning assessment

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Authors: Kareem Abdelwahed, Ahmed Salama, Ahmed Rabie, Ahmed Hamdy, Waleed Abdelfattah, Ahmed Abd El-Rahman

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Conventional vapor-compression refrigeration systems rely on typical refrigerants, such as CFC, HCFC and ammonia. Despite of their suitable thermodynamic properties and their stability in the atmosphere, their corresponding global warming potential and ozone depletion potential raise concerns about their usage. Thus, the need for new refrigeration systems, which are environment-friendly, inexpensive and simple in construction, has strongly motivated the development of thermoacoustic energy conversion systems. A thermoacoustic refrigerator (TAR) is a device that is mainly consisting of a resonator, a stack and two heat exchangers. Typically, the resonator is a long circular tube, made of copper or steel and filled with Helium as a the working gas, while the stack has short and relatively low thermal conductivity ceramic parallel plates aligned with the direction of the prevailing resonant wave. Typically, the resonator of a standing-wave refrigerator has one end closed and is bounded by the acoustic driver at the other end enabling the propagation of half-wavelength acoustic excitation. The hot and cold heat exchangers are made of copper to allow for efficient heat transfer between the working gas and the external heat source and sink respectively. TARs are interesting because they have no moving parts, unlike conventional refrigerators, and almost no environmental impact exists as they rely on the conversion of acoustic and heat energies. Their fabrication process is rather simpler and sizes span wide variety of length scales. The viscous and thermal interactions between the stack plates, heat exchangers' plates and the working gas significantly affect the flow field within the plates' channels, and the energy flux density at the plates' surfaces, respectively. Here, the design, the manufacture and the testing of a compact refrigeration system that is based on the thermoacoustic energy-conversion technology is reported. A 1-D linear acoustic model is carefully and specifically developed, which is followed by building the hardware and testing procedures. The system consists of two harmonically-oscillating pistons driven by a simple 1-HP rotary drive mechanism operating at a frequency of 42Hz -hereby, replacing typical expensive linear motors and loudspeakers-, and a thermoacoustic stack within which the energy conversion of sound into heat is taken place. Air at ambient conditions is used as the working gas while the amplitude of the driver's displacement reaches 19 mm. The 30-cm-long stack is a simple porous ceramic material having 100 square channels per square inch. During operation, both oscillating-gas pressure and solid-stack temperature are recorded for further analysis. Measurements show a maximum temperature difference of about 27 degrees between the stack hot and cold ends with a Carnot coefficient of performance of 11 and estimated cooling capacity of five Watts, when operating at ambient conditions. A dynamic pressure of 7-kPa-amplitude is recorded, yielding a drive ratio of 7% approximately, and found in a good agreement with theoretical prediction. The system behavior is clearly non-linear and significant non-linear loss mechanisms are evident. This work helps understanding the operation principles of thermoacoustic refrigerators and presents a keystone towards developing commercial thermoacoustic refrigerator units.

Keywords: refrigeration system, rotary drive mechanism, standing-wave, thermoacoustic refrigerator

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Authors: Haruka Ando

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Undernutrition of children is a critical issue, especially for people in the remote areas of the Republic of Djibouti, since household food insecurity, inadequate child caring and feeding, unhealthy environment and lack of clean water, as well as insufficient maternal and child healthcare, are underlying causes which affect. Nomadic pastoralists living in the Dikhil region (Dikhil) are socio-economically and geographically more vulnerable due to displacement, which in turn worsens the situation of child stunting. A high prevalence of inappropriate complementary feeding among pastoral mothers might be a significant barrier to child growth. This study aims to identify health promotion intervention strategies that would support an increase in optimal complementary feeding among pastoral mothers of children aged 6-23 months in Dikhil. There are four objectives; to explore and to understand the existing practice of complementary feeding among pastoral mothers in Dikhil; to identify the barriers in appropriate complementary feeding among the mothers; to critically explore and analyse the strategies for an increase in complementary feeding among the mothers; to make pragmatic recommendations to address the barriers in Djibouti. This is an in-depth study utilizing a conceptual framework, the behaviour change wheel, to analyse the determinants of complementary feeding and categorize health promotion interventions for increasing optimal complementary feeding among pastoral mothers living in Dikhil. The analytical tool was utilized to appraise the strategies to mitigate the selected barriers against optimal complementary feeding. The data sources were secondary literature from both published and unpublished sources. The literature was systematically collected. The findings of the determinants including the barriers of optimal complementary feeding were identified: heavy household workload, caring for multiple children under five, lack of education, cultural norms and traditional eating habits, lack of husbands' support, poverty and food insecurity, lack of clean water, low media coverage, insufficient health services on complementary feeding, fear, poor personal hygiene, and mothers' low decision-making ability and lack of motivation for food choice. To mitigate selected barriers of optimal complementary feeding, four intervention strategies based on interpersonal communication at the community-level were chosen: scaling up mothers' support groups, nutrition education, grandmother-inclusive approach, and training for complementary feeding counseling. The strategies were appraised through the criteria of effectiveness and feasibility. Scaling up mothers' support groups could be the best approach. Mid-term and long-term recommendations are suggested based on the situation analysis and appraisal of intervention strategies. Mid-term recommendations include complementary feeding promotion interventions are integrated into the healthcare service providing system in Dikhil, and donor agencies advocate and lobby the Ministry of Health Djibouti (MoHD) to increase budgetary allocation on complementary feeding promotion to implement interventions at a community level. Moreover, the recommendations include a community health management team in Dikhil training healthcare workers and mother support groups by using complementary feeding communication guidelines and monitors behaviour change of pastoral mothers and health outcome of their children. Long-term recommendations are the MoHD develops complementary feeding guidelines to cover sector-wide collaboration for multi-sectoral related barriers.

Keywords: Afar, child food, child nutrition, complementary feeding, complementary food, developing countries, Djibouti, East Africa, hard-to-reach areas, Horn of Africa, nomad, pastoral, rural area, Somali, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Liane J. Ioannou, Jonathan Serpell, Cino Bendinelli, David Walters, Jenny Gough, Dean Lisewski, Win Meyer-Rochow, Julie Miller, Duncan Topliss, Bill Fleming, Stephen Farrell, Andrew Kiu, James Kollias, Mark Sywak, Adam Aniss, Linda Fenton, Danielle Ghusn, Simon Harper, Aleksandra Popadich, Kate Stringer, David Watters, Susannah Ahern

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BACKGROUND: There are significant variations in the management, treatment and outcomes of thyroid cancer, particularly in the role of: diagnostic investigation and pre-treatment scanning; optimal extent of surgery (total or hemi-thyroidectomy); use of active surveillance for small low-risk cancers; central lymph node dissections (therapeutic or prophylactic); outcomes following surgery (e.g. recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy, hypocalcaemia, hypoparathyroidism); post-surgical hormone, calcium and vitamin D therapy; and provision and dosage of radioactive iodine treatment. A proven strategy to reduce variations in the outcome and to improve survival is to measure and compare it using high-quality clinical registry data. Clinical registries provide the most effective means of collecting high-quality data and are a tool for quality improvement. Where they have been introduced at a state or national level, registries have become one of the most clinically valued tools for quality improvement. To benchmark clinical care, clinical quality registries require systematic measurement at predefined intervals and the capacity to report back information to participating clinical units. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a core set clinical indicators that enable measurement and reporting of quality of care for patients with thyroid cancer. We hypothesise that measuring clinical quality indicators, developed to identify differences in quality of care across sites, will reduce variation and improve patient outcomes and survival, thereby lessening costs and healthcare burden to the Australian community. METHOD: Preparatory work and scoping was conducted to identify existing high quality, clinical guidelines and best practice for thyroid cancer both nationally and internationally, as well as relevant literature. A bi-national panel was invited to participate in a modified Delphi process. Panelists were asked to rate each proposed indicator on a Likert scale of 1–9 in a three-round iterative process. RESULTS: A total of 236 potential quality indicators were identified. One hundred and ninety-two indicators were removed to reflect the data capture by the Australian and New Zealand Thyroid Cancer Registry (ANZTCR) (from diagnosis to 90-days post-surgery). The remaining 44 indicators were presented to the panelists for voting. A further 21 indicators were later added by the panelists bringing the total potential quality indicators to 65. Of these, 21 were considered the most important and feasible indicators to measure quality of care in thyroid cancer, of which 12 were recommended for inclusion in the final set. The consensus indicator set spans the spectrum of care, including: preoperative; surgery; surgical complications; staging and post-surgical treatment planning; and post-surgical treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a core set of quality indicators to measure quality of care in thyroid cancer. This indicator set can be applied as a tool for internal quality improvement, comparative quality reporting, public reporting and research. Inclusion of these quality indicators into monitoring databases such as clinical quality registries will enable opportunities for benchmarking and feedback on best practice care to clinicians involved in the management of thyroid cancer.

Keywords: clinical registry, Delphi survey, quality indicators, quality of care

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Authors: Alexandria Carey, Angela Starkweather, Ann Horgas, Hwayoung Cho, Jason Beneciuk

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Background/Significance: Over 3.4 million acute axial low back pain (aLBP) cases are treated annually in the United States (US) emergency departments (ED). ED patients with aLBP receive varying verbal and written discharge routine care (RC), leading to ineffective patient self-management. Ineffective self-management increase chronic low back pain (cLPB) transition risks, a chief cause of worldwide disability, with associated costs >$60 million annually. This research addresses this significant problem by evaluating an ED digital pain self-management intervention (EDPSI) focused on improving self-management through improved knowledge retainment, skills, and self-efficacy (confidence) (KSC) thus reducing aLBP to cLBP transition in ED patients discharged with aLBP. The research has significant potential to increase self-efficacy, one of the most potent mechanisms of behavior change and improve health outcomes. Focusing on accessibility and usability, the intervention may reduce discharge disparities in aLBP self-management, especially with low health literacy. Study Questions: This research will answer the following questions: 1) Will an EDPSI focused on improving KSC progress patient self-management behaviors and health status?; 2) Is the EDPSI sustainable to improve pain severity, interference, and pain recurrence?; 3) Will an EDPSI reduce aLBP to cLBP transition in patients discharged with aLBP? Aims: The pilot randomized-controlled trial (RCT) study’s objectives assess the effects of a 12-week digital self-management discharge tool in patients with aLBP. We aim to 1) Primarily assess the feasibility [recruitment, enrollment, and retention], and [intervention] acceptability, and sustainability of EDPSI on participant’s pain self-management; 2) Determine the effectiveness and sustainability of EDPSI on pain severity/interference among participants. 3) Explore patient preferences, health literacy, and changes among participants experiencing the transition to cLBP. We anticipate that EDPSI intervention will increase likelihood of achieving self-management milestones and significantly improve pain-related symptoms in aLBP. Methods: The study uses a two-group pilot RCT to enroll 30 individuals who have been seen in the ED with aLBP. Participants are randomized into RC (n=15) or RC + EDPSI (n=15) and receive follow-up surveys for 12-weeks post-intervention. EDPSI innovative content focuses on 1) highlighting discharge education; 2) provides self-management treatment options; 3) actor demonstration of ergonomics, range of motion movements, safety, and sleep; 4) complementary alternative medicine (CAM) options including acupuncture, yoga, and Pilates; 5) combination therapies including thermal application, spinal manipulation, and PT treatments. The intervention group receives Booster sessions via Zoom to assess and reinforce their knowledge retention of techniques and provide return demonstration reinforcing ergonomics, in weeks two and eight. Outcome Measures: All participants are followed for 12-weeks, assessing pain severity/ interference using the Brief Pain Inventory short-form (BPI-sf) survey, self-management (measuring KSC) using the short 13-item Patient Activation Measure (PAM), and self-efficacy using the Pain Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ) weeks 1, 6, and 12. Feasibility is measured by recruitment, enrollment, and retention percentages. Acceptability and education satisfaction are measured using the Education-Preference and Satisfaction Questionnaire (EPSQ) post-intervention. Self-management sustainment is measured including PSEQ, PAM, and patient satisfaction and healthcare utilization (PSHU) requesting patient overall satisfaction, additional healthcare utilization, and pain management related to continued back pain or complications post-injury.

Keywords: digital, pain self-management, education, tool

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Authors: Teesta Dey

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Integrated Transport development with proper traffic management leads to sustainable growth of any urban sphere. Appropriate mass transport planning is essential for the populous cities in third world countries like India. The exponential growth of motor vehicles with unplanned road network is now the common feature of major urban centres in India. Kolkata, the third largest mega city in India, is not an exception of it. The imbalance between demand and supply of unplanned transport services in this city is manifested in the high economic and environmental costs borne by the associated society. With the passage of time, the growth and extent of passenger demand for rapid urban transport has outstripped proper infrastructural planning and causes severe transport problems in the overall urban realm. Hence Kolkata stands out in the world as one of the most crisis-ridden metropolises. The urban transport crisis of this city involves severe traffic congestion, the disparity in mass transport services on changing peripheral land uses, route overlapping, lowering of travel speed and faulty implementation of governmental plans as mostly induced by rapid growth of private vehicles on limited road space with huge carbon footprint. Therefore the paper will critically analyze the extant road network pattern for improving regional connectivity and accessibility, assess the degree of congestion, identify the deviation from demand and supply balance and finally evaluate the emerging alternate transport options as promoted by the government. For this purpose, linear, nodal and spatial transport network have been assessed based on certain selected indices viz. Road Degree, Traffic Volume, Shimbel Index, Direct Bus Connectivity, Average Travel and Waiting Tine Indices, Route Variety, Service Frequency, Bus Intensity, Concentration Analysis, Delay Rate, Quality of Traffic Transmission, Lane Length Duration Index and Modal Mix. Total 20 Traffic Intersection Points (TIPs) have been selected for the measurement of nodal accessibility. Critical Congestion Zones (CCZs) are delineated based on one km buffer zones of each TIP for congestion pattern analysis. A total of 480 bus routes are assessed for identifying the deficiency in network planning. Apart from bus services, the combined effects of other mass and para transit modes, containing metro rail, auto, cab and ferry services, are also analyzed. Based on systematic random sampling method, a total of 1500 daily urban passengers’ perceptions were studied for checking the ground realities. The outcome of this research identifies the spatial disparity among the 15 boroughs of the city with severe route overlapping and congestion problem. North and Central Kolkata-based mass transport services exceed the transport strength of south and peripheral Kolkata. Faulty infrastructural condition, service inadequacy, economic loss and workers’ inefficiency are the most dominant reasons behind the defective mass transport network plan. Hence there is an urgent need to revive the extant road based mass transport system of this city by implementing a holistic management approach by upgrading traffic infrastructure, designing new roads, better cooperation among different mass transport agencies, better coordination of transport and changing land use policies, large increase in funding and finally general passengers’ awareness.

Keywords: carbon footprint, critical congestion zones, direct bus connectivity, integrated transport development

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Authors: Ankur Chaudhuri, Sibani Sen Chakraborty

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In human, glutaminyl cyclase activity is highly abundant in neuronal and secretory tissues and is preferentially restricted to hypothalamus and pituitary. The N-terminal modification of β-amyloids (Aβs) peptides by the generation of a pyro-glutamyl (pGlu) modified Aβs (pE-Aβs) is an important process in the initiation of the formation of neurotoxic plaques in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This process is catalyzed by glutaminyl cyclase (QC). The expression of QC is characteristically up-regulated in the early stage of AD, and the hallmark of the inhibition of QC is the prevention of the formation of pE-Aβs and plaques. A computer-aided drug design (CADD) process was employed to give an idea for the designing of potentially active compounds to understand the inhibitory potency against human glutaminyl cyclase (QC). This work elaborates the ligand-based and structure-based pharmacophore exploration of glutaminyl cyclase (QC) by using the known inhibitors. Three dimensional (3D) quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) methods were applied to 154 compounds with known IC50 values. All the inhibitors were divided into two sets, training-set, and test-sets. Generally, training-set was used to build the quantitative pharmacophore model based on the principle of structural diversity, whereas the test-set was employed to evaluate the predictive ability of the pharmacophore hypotheses. A chemical feature-based pharmacophore model was generated from the known 92 training-set compounds by HypoGen module implemented in Discovery Studio 2017 R2 software package. The best hypothesis was selected (Hypo1) based upon the highest correlation coefficient (0.8906), lowest total cost (463.72), and the lowest root mean square deviation (2.24Å) values. The highest correlation coefficient value indicates greater predictive activity of the hypothesis, whereas the lower root mean square deviation signifies a small deviation of experimental activity from the predicted one. The best pharmacophore model (Hypo1) of the candidate inhibitors predicted comprised four features: two hydrogen bond acceptor, one hydrogen bond donor, and one hydrophobic feature. The Hypo1 was validated by several parameters such as test set activity prediction, cost analysis, Fischer's randomization test, leave-one-out method, and heat map of ligand profiler. The predicted features were then used for virtual screening of potential compounds from NCI, ASINEX, Maybridge and Chembridge databases. More than seven million compounds were used for this purpose. The hit compounds were filtered by drug-likeness and pharmacokinetics properties. The selective hits were docked to the high-resolution three-dimensional structure of the target protein glutaminyl cyclase (PDB ID: 2AFU/2AFW) to filter these hits further. To validate the molecular docking results, the most active compound from the dataset was selected as a reference molecule. From the density functional theory (DFT) study, ten molecules were selected based on their highest HOMO (highest occupied molecular orbitals) energy and the lowest bandgap values. Molecular dynamics simulations with explicit solvation systems of the final ten hit compounds revealed that a large number of non-covalent interactions were formed with the binding site of the human glutaminyl cyclase. It was suggested that the hit compounds reported in this study could help in future designing of potent inhibitors as leads against human glutaminyl cyclase.

Keywords: glutaminyl cyclase, hit lead, pharmacophore model, simulation

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Authors: Diogo José Morgado Rebelo, Francisco António Carneiro Pacheco de Andrade, Paulo Jorge Freitas de Oliveira Novais

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Not everything in AI-power consumer credit scoring turns out to be a wonder. When using AI in Creditworthiness Assessment (CWA), opacity and unfairness ‘sins’ must be considered to the task be deemed Responsible. AI software is not always 100% accurate, which can lead to misclassification. Discrimination of some groups can be exponentiated. A hetero personalized identity can be imposed on the individual(s) affected. Also, autonomous CWA sometimes lacks transparency when using black box models. However, for this intended purpose, human analysts ‘on-the-loop’ might not be the best remedy consumers are looking for in credit. This study seeks to explore the legality of implementing a Multi-Agent System (MAS) framework in consumer CWA to ensure compliance with the regulation outlined in Article 14(4) of the Proposal for an Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA), dated 21 April 2021 (as per the last corrigendum by the European Parliament on 19 April 2024), Especially with the adoption of Art. 18(8)(9) of the EU Directive 2023/2225, of 18 October, which will go into effect on 20 November 2026, there should be more emphasis on the need for hybrid oversight in AI-driven scoring to ensure fairness and transparency. In fact, the range of EU regulations on AI-based consumer credit will soon impact the AI lending industry locally and globally, as shown by the broad territorial scope of AIA’s Art. 2. Consequently, engineering the law of consumer’s CWA is imperative. Generally, the proposed MAS framework consists of several layers arranged in a specific sequence, as follows: firstly, the Data Layer gathers legitimate predictor sets from traditional sources; then, the Decision Support System Layer, whose Neural Network model is trained using k-fold Cross Validation, provides recommendations based on the feeder data; the eXplainability (XAI) multi-structure comprises Three-Step-Agents; and, lastly, the Oversight Layer has a 'Bottom Stop' for analysts to intervene in a timely manner. From the analysis, one can assure a vital component of this software is the XAY layer. It appears as a transparent curtain covering the AI’s decision-making process, enabling comprehension, reflection, and further feasible oversight. Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) might act as a pillar by offering counterfactual insights. SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP), another agent in the XAI layer, could address potential discrimination issues, identifying the contribution of each feature to the prediction. Alternatively, for thin or no file consumers, the Suggestion Agent can promote financial inclusion. It uses lawful alternative sources such as the share of wallet, among others, to search for more advantageous solutions to incomplete evaluation appraisals based on genetic programming. Overall, this research aspires to bring the concept of Machine-Centered Anthropocentrism to the table of EU policymaking. It acknowledges that, when put into service, credit analysts no longer exert full control over the data-driven entities programmers have given ‘birth’ to. With similar explanatory agents under supervision, AI itself can become self-accountable, prioritizing human concerns and values. AI decisions should not be vilified inherently. The issue lies in how they are integrated into decision-making and whether they align with non-discrimination principles and transparency rules.

Keywords: creditworthiness assessment, hybrid oversight, machine-centered anthropocentrism, EU policymaking

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Authors: Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martínez, Arturo Galván, Israel Enrique Herrera Díaz, José Ramón Gasca Tirado

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In recent years, for the elevated viaducts in Mexico City, a construction system based on precast/pre-stressed concrete elements has been used, in which the bridge girders are divided in two parts by imposing a hinged support in sections where the bending moments that are originated by the gravity loads in a continuous beam are minimal. Precast concrete girders with dapped ends are a representative sample of a behavior that has complex configurations of stresses that make them more vulnerable to cracking due to flexure–shear interaction. The design procedures for ends of the dapped girders are well established and are based primarily on experimental tests performed for different configurations of reinforcement. The critical failure modes that can govern the design have been identified, and for each of them, the methods for computing the reinforcing steel that is needed to achieve adequate safety against failure have been proposed. Nevertheless, the design recommendations do not include procedures for controlling diagonal cracking at the entrant corner under service loading. These cracks could cause water penetration and degradation because of the corrosion of the steel reinforcement. The lack of visual access to the area makes it difficult to detect this damage and take timely corrective actions. Three-dimensional non-linear numerical models based on Finite Element Method to study the cracking at the entrant corner of dapped-end beams were performed using the software package ANSYS v. 11.0. The cracking was numerically simulated by using the smeared crack approach. The concrete structure was modeled using three-dimensional solid elements SOLID65 capable of cracking in tension and crushing in compression. Drucker-Prager yield surface was used to include the plastic deformations. The longitudinal post-tension was modeled using LINK8 elements with multilinear isotropic hardening behavior using von Misses plasticity. The reinforcement was introduced with smeared approach. The numerical models were calibrated using experimental tests carried out in “Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México”. In these numerical models the characteristics of the specimens were considered: typical solution based on vertical stirrups (hangers) and on vertical and horizontal hoops with a post-tensioned steel which contributed to a 74% of the flexural resistance. The post-tension is given by four steel wires with a 5/8’’ (16 mm) diameter. Each wire was tensioned to 147 kN and induced an average compressive stress of 4.90 MPa on the concrete section of the dapped end. The loading protocol consisted on applying symmetrical loading to reach the service load (180 kN). Due to the good correlation between experimental and numerical models some additional numerical models were proposed by considering different percentages of post-tension in order to find out how much it influences in the appearance of the cracking in the reentrant corner of the dapped-end beams. It was concluded that the increasing of percentage of post-tension decreases the displacements and the cracking in the reentrant corner takes longer to appear. The authors acknowledge at “Universidad de Guanajuato, Campus Celaya-Salvatierra” and the financial support of PRODEP-SEP (UGTO-PTC-460) of the Mexican government. The first author acknowledges at “Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México”.

Keywords: concrete dapped-end beams, cracking control, finite element analysis, postension

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Authors: Kalaumari Mayoral-Peña, Ana I. Montejano-Montelongo, Josué Reyes-Muñoz, Gonzalo A. Ortiz-Mancilla, Mayrin Rodríguez-Cruz, Víctor Hernández-Villalobos, Jesús A. Guzmán-López, Santiago García-Jacobo, Iván Licona-Vázquez, Grisel Fierros-Romero, Rosario Flores-Vallejo

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The group B-lactamic antibiotics include some of the most frequently used small drug molecules against bacterial infections. Nevertheless, an alarming decrease in their efficacy has been reported due to the emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Infections caused by bacteria expressing extended Spectrum B-lactamases (ESBLs) are difficult to treat and account for higher morbidity and mortality rates, delayed recovery, and high economic burden. According to the Global Report on Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance, it is estimated that mortality due to resistant bacteria will ascend to 10 million cases per year worldwide. These facts highlight the importance of developing low-cost and readily accessible detection methods of drug-resistant ESBLs bacteria to prevent their spread and promote accurate and fast diagnosis. Bacterial detection is commonly done using molecular diagnostic techniques, where PCR stands out for its high performance. However, this technique requires specialized equipment not available everywhere, is time-consuming, and has a high cost. Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) is an alternative technique that works at a constant temperature, significantly decreasing the equipment cost. It yields double-stranded DNA of several lengths with repetitions of the target DNA sequence as a product. Although positive and negative results from LAMP can be discriminated by colorimetry, fluorescence, and turbidity, there is still a large room for improvement in the point-of-care implementation. DNA origami is a technique that allows the formation of 3D nanometric structures by folding a large single-stranded DNA (scaffold) into a determined shape with the help of short DNA sequences (staples), which hybridize with the scaffold. This research aimed to generate DNA origami structures using LAMP products as scaffolds to improve the sensitivity to detect ESBLs in point-of-care diagnosis. For this study, the coding sequence of the CTM-X-15 ESBL of E. coli was used to generate the LAMP products. The set of LAMP primers were designed using PrimerExplorerV5. As a result, a target sequence of 200 nucleotides from CTM-X-15 ESBL was obtained. Afterward, eight different DNA origami structures were designed using the target sequence in the SDCadnano and analyzed with CanDo to evaluate the stability of the 3D structures. The designs were constructed minimizing the total number of staples to reduce costs and complexity for point-of-care applications. After analyzing the DNA origami designs, two structures were selected. The first one was a zig-zag flat structure, while the second one was a wall-like shape. Given the sequence repetitions in the scaffold sequence, both were able to be assembled with only 6 different staples each one, ranging between 18 to 80 nucleotides. Simulations of both structures were performed using scaffolds of different sizes yielding stable structures in all the cases. The generation of the LAMP products were tested by colorimetry and electrophoresis. The formation of the DNA structures was analyzed using electrophoresis and colorimetry. The modeling of novel detection methods through bioinformatics tools allows reliable control and prediction of results. To our knowledge, this is the first study that uses LAMP products and DNA-origami in combination to delect ESBL-producing bacterial strains, which represent a promising methodology for diagnosis in the point-of-care.

Keywords: beta-lactamases, antibiotic resistance, DNA origami, isothermal amplification, LAMP technique, molecular diagnosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Z. S. Haidar

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Millions of teeth are removed annually, and dental extraction is one of the most commonly performed surgical procedures globally. Whether due to caries, periodontal disease, or trauma, exodontia and the ensuing wound healing and bone remodeling processes of the resultant socket (hole in the jaw bone) usually result in serious deformities of the residual alveolar osseous ridge and surrounding soft tissues (reduced height/width). Such voluminous changes render the placement of a proper conventional bridge, denture, or even an implant-supported prosthesis extremely challenging. Further, most extractions continue to be performed with no regard for preventing the onset of alveolar osteitis (also known as dry socket, a painful and difficult-to-treat/-manage condition post-exodontia). Hence, such serious resorptive morphological changes often result in significant facial deformities and a negative impact on the overall Quality of Life (QoL) of patients (and oral health-related QoL); alarming, particularly for the geriatric with compromised healing and in light of the thriving longevity statistics. Despite advances in tissue/wound grafting, serious limitations continue to exist, including efficacy and clinical outcome predictability, cost, treatment time, expertise, and risk of immune reactions. For cases of dry socket, specifically, the commercially available and often-prescribed home remedies are highly-lacking. Indeed, most are not recommended for use anymore. Alveogyl is a fine example. Hence, there is a great market demand and need for alternative solutions. Herein, SockGEL/PLUG (patent pending), an innovative, all-natural, drug-free, and injectable thermo-responsive hydrogel, was designed, formulated, characterized, and evaluated as an osteogenic, angiogenic, anti-microbial, and pain-soothing suture-free intra-alveolar dressing, safe and efficacious for use in fresh extraction sockets, immediately post-exodontia. It is composed of FDA-approved, biocompatible and biodegradable polymers, self-assembled electro-statically to formulate a scaffolding matrix to (1) prevent the on-set of alveolar osteitis via securing the fibrin-clot in situ and protecting/sealing the socket from contamination/infection; and (2) endogenously promote/accelerate wound healing and bone remodeling to preserve the volume of the alveolus. The intrinsic properties of the SockGEL/PLUG hydrogel were evaluated physical-chemical-mechanically for safety (cell viability), viscosity, rheology, bio-distribution, and essentially, capacity to induce wound healing and osteogenesis (small defect, in vivo) without any signaling cues from exogenous cells, growth factors or drugs. The proposed animal model of cranial critical-sized and non-vascularized bone defects shall provide new and critical insights into the role and mechanism of the employed natural bio-polymer blend and gel product in endogenous reparative regeneration of soft tissues and bone morphogenesis. Alongside, the fine-tuning of our modified formulation method will further tackle appropriateness, reproducibility, scalability, ease, and speed in producing stable, biodegradable, and sterilizable thermo-sensitive matrices (3-dimensional interpenetrating yet porous polymeric network) suitable for the intra-socket application. Findings are anticipated to provide sufficient evidence to translate into pilot clinical trials and validate the innovation before engaging the market for feasibility, acceptance, and cost-effectiveness studies.

Keywords: hydrogel, nanotechnology, bioengineering, bone regeneration, nanogel, drug delivery

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: M. M. Hassani, S. Ammann, F. K. Wittel, P. Niemz, H. J. Herrmann

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Application of engineered wood, especially in the form of glued-laminated timbers has increased significantly. Recent progress in plywood made of high strength and high stiffness hardwoods, like European beech, gives designers in general more freedom by increased dimensional stability and load-bearing capacity. However, the strong hygric dependence of basically all mechanical properties renders many innovative ideas futile. The tendency of hardwood for higher moisture sorption and swelling coefficients lead to significant residual stresses in glued-laminated configurations, cross-laminated patterns in particular. These stress fields cause initiation and evolution of cracks in the bond-lines resulting in: interfacial de-bonding, loss of structural integrity, and reduction of load-carrying capacity. Subsequently, delamination of glued-laminated timbers made of hardwood elements can be considered as the dominant failure mechanism in such composite elements. In addition, long-term creep and mechano-sorption under changing environmental conditions lead to loss of stiffness and can amplify delamination growth over the lifetime of a structure even after decades. In this study we investigate the delamination process of adhesively bonded hardwood (European beech) elements subjected to changing climatic conditions. To gain further insight into the long-term performance of adhesively bonded elements during the design phase of new products, the development and verification of an authentic moisture-dependent constitutive model for various species is of great significance. Since up to now, a comprehensive moisture-dependent rheological model comprising all possibly emerging deformation mechanisms was missing, a 3D orthotropic elasto-plastic, visco-elastic, mechano-sorptive material model for wood, with all material constants being defined as a function of moisture content, was developed. Apart from the solid wood adherends, adhesive layer also plays a crucial role in the generation and distribution of the interfacial stresses. Adhesive substance can be treated as a continuum layer constructed from finite elements, represented as a homogeneous and isotropic material. To obtain a realistic assessment on the mechanical performance of the adhesive layer and a detailed look at the interfacial stress distributions, a generic constitutive model including all potentially activated deformation modes, namely elastic, plastic, and visco-elastic creep was developed. We focused our studies on the three most common adhesive systems for structural timber engineering: one-component polyurethane adhesive (PUR), melamine-urea-formaldehyde (MUF), and phenol-resorcinol-formaldehyde (PRF). The corresponding numerical integration approaches, with additive decomposition of the total strain are implemented within the ABAQUS FEM environment by means of user subroutine UMAT. To predict the true stress state, we perform a history dependent sequential moisture-stress analysis using the developed material models for both wood substrate and adhesive layer. Prediction of the delamination process is founded on the fracture mechanical properties of the adhesive bond-line, measured under different levels of moisture content and application of the cohesive interface elements. Finally, we compare the numerical predictions with the experimental observations of de-bonding in glued-laminated samples under changing environmental conditions.

Keywords: engineered wood, adhesive, material model, FEM analysis, fracture mechanics, delamination

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Lauren B. Birney

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The envisioned long-term outcome of this three-year research, and implementation plan is for 1) teachers and students to design and build their own computational models of real-world environmental-human health phenomena occurring within the context of the “Human Harbor” and 2) project researchers to evaluate the degree to which these integrated Computer Science (CS) education experiences in New York City (NYC) public school classrooms (PreK-12) impact students’ computational-technical skill development, job readiness, career motivations, and measurable abilities to understand, articulate, and solve the underlying phenomena at the center of their models. This effort builds on the partnership’s successes over the past eight years in developing a benchmark Model of restoration-based Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) education for urban public schools and achieving relatively broad-based implementation in the nation’s largest public school system. The Billion Oyster Project Curriculum and Community Enterprise for Restoration Science (BOP-CCERS STEM + Computing) curriculum, teacher professional developments, and community engagement programs have reached more than 200 educators and 11,000 students at 124 schools, with 84 waterfront locations and Out of School of Time (OST) programs. The BOP-CCERS Partnership is poised to develop a more refined focus on integrating computer science across the STEM domains; teaching industry-aligned computational methods and tools; and explicitly preparing students from the city’s most under-resourced and underrepresented communities for upwardly mobile careers in NYC’s ever-expanding “digital economy,” in which jobs require computational thinking and an increasing percentage require discreet computer science technical skills. Project Objectives include the following: 1. Computational Thinking (CT) Integration: Integrate computational thinking core practices across existing middle/high school BOP-CCERS STEM curriculum as a means of scaffolding toward long term computer science and computational modeling outcomes. 2. Data Science and Data Analytics: Enabling Researchers to perform interviews with Teachers, students, community members, partners, stakeholders, and Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) industry Professionals. Collaborative analysis and data collection were also performed. As a centerpiece, the BOP-CCERS partnership will expand to include a dedicated computer science education partner. New York City Department of Education (NYCDOE), Computer Science for All (CS4ALL) NYC will serve as the dedicated Computer Science (CS) lead, advising the consortium on integration and curriculum development, working in tandem. The BOP-CCERS Model™ also validates that with appropriate application of technical infrastructure, intensive teacher professional developments, and curricular scaffolding, socially connected science learning can be mainstreamed in the nation’s largest urban public school system. This is evidenced and substantiated in the initial phases of BOP-CCERS™. The BOP-CCERS™ student curriculum and teacher professional development have been implemented in approximately 24% of NYC public middle schools, reaching more than 250 educators and 11,000 students directly. BOP-CCERS™ is a fully scalable and transferable educational model, adaptable to all American school districts. In all settings of the proposed Phase IV initiative, the primary beneficiary group will be underrepresented NYC public school students who live in high-poverty neighborhoods and are traditionally underrepresented in the STEM fields, including African Americans, Latinos, English language learners, and children from economically disadvantaged households. In particular, BOP-CCERS Phase IV will explicitly prepare underrepresented students for skilled positions within New York City’s expanding digital economy, computer science, computational information systems, and innovative technology sectors.

Keywords: computer science, data science, equity, diversity and inclusion, STEM education

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Oluwaseun Adeleke, Samuel O. Ikani, Fidelis Edet, Anthony Nwala, Mopelola Raji, Simeon Christian Chukwu

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Background The Delivering Innovations in Selfcare (DISC) project promotes universal access to quality selfcare services beginning with subcutaneous depot medroxy progesterone acetate (DMPA-SC) contraceptive self-injection (SI) option. Self-inject (SI) offers women a highly effective and convenient option that saves them frequent trips to providers. Its increased use has the potential to improve the efficiency of an overstretched healthcare system by reducing provider workloads. State Social and Behavioral Change Communications (SBCC) Officers lead project demand creation and service delivery innovations that have resulted in significant increases in SI uptake among women who opt for injectables. Strategies Service Delivery Innovations The implementation of the "Moment of Truth (MoT)" innovation helped providers overcome biases and address client fear and reluctance to self-inject. Bi-annual program audits and supportive mentoring visits helped providers retain their competence and motivation. Proper documentation, tracking, and replenishment of commodities were ensured through effective engagement with State Logistics Units. The project supported existing state monitoring and evaluation structures to effectively record and report subcutaneous depot medroxy progesterone acetate (DMPA-SC) service utilization. Demand creation Innovations SBCC Officers provide oversight, routinely evaluate performance, trains, and provides feedback for the demand creation activities implemented by community mobilizers (CMs). The scope and intensity of training given to CMs affect the outcome of their work. The project operates a demand creation model that uses a schedule to inform the conduct of interpersonal and group events. Health education sessions are specifically designed to counter misinformation, address questions and concerns, and educate target audience in an informed choice context. The project mapped facilities and their catchment areas and enlisted the support of identified influencers and gatekeepers to enlist their buy-in prior to entry. Each mobilization event began with pre-mobilization sensitization activities, particularly targeting male groups. Context-specific interventions were informed by the religious, traditional, and cultural peculiarities of target communities. Mobilizers also support clients to engage with and navigate online digital Family Planning (FP) online portals such as DiscoverYourPower website, Facebook page, digital companion (chat bot), interactive voice response (IVR), radio and television (TV) messaging. This improves compliance and provides linkages to nearby facilities. Results The project recorded 136,950 self-injection (SI) visits and a self-injection (SI) proportion rate that increased from 13 percent before the implementation of interventions in 2021 to 62 percent currently. The project cost-effectively demonstrated catalytic impact by leveraging state and partner resources, institutional platforms, and geographic scope to scale up interventions. The project also cost effectively demonstrated catalytic impact by leveraging on the state and partner resources, institutional platforms, and geographic scope to sustainably scale-up these strategies. Conclusion Using evidence-informed iterations of service delivery and demand creation models have been useful to significantly drive self-injection (SI) uptake. It will be useful to consider this implementation model during program design. Contemplation should also be given to systematic and strategic execution of strategies to optimize impact.

Keywords: family planning, contraception, DMPA-SC, self-care, self-injection, innovation, service delivery, demand creation.

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Atish Bagchi, Siva Chandrasekaran

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Background: According to World Bank national accounts data, the estimated global manufacturing value-added output in 2020 was 13.74 trillion USD. These manufacturing processes are monitored, modelled, and controlled by advanced, real-time, computer-based systems, e.g., Industrial IoT, PLC, SCADA, etc. These systems measure and manipulate a set of physical variables, e.g., temperature, pressure, etc. Despite the use of IoT, SCADA etc., in manufacturing, studies suggest that unplanned downtime leads to economic losses of approximately 864 billion USD each year. Therefore, real-time, accurate detection, classification and prediction of machine behaviour are needed to minimise financial losses. Although vast literature exists on time-series data processing using machine learning, the challenges faced by the industries that lead to unplanned downtimes are: The current algorithms do not efficiently handle the high-volume streaming data from industrial IoTsensors and were tested on static and simulated datasets. While the existing algorithms can detect significant 'point' outliers, most do not handle contextual outliers (e.g., values within normal range but happening at an unexpected time of day) or subtle changes in machine behaviour. Machines are revamped periodically as part of planned maintenance programmes, which change the assumptions on which original AI models were created and trained. Aim: This research study aims to deliver a Graph Neural Network(GNN)based hybrid forecasting model that interfaces with the real-time machine control systemand can detect, predict machine behaviour and behavioural changes (anomalies) in real-time. This research will help manufacturing industries and utilities, e.g., water, electricity etc., reduce unplanned downtimes and consequential financial losses. Method: The data stored within a process control system, e.g., Industrial-IoT, Data Historian, is generally sampled during data acquisition from the sensor (source) and whenpersistingin the Data Historian to optimise storage and query performance. The sampling may inadvertently discard values that might contain subtle aspects of behavioural changes in machines. This research proposed a hybrid forecasting and classification model which combines the expressive and extrapolation capability of GNN enhanced with the estimates of entropy and spectral changes in the sampled data and additional temporal contexts to reconstruct the likely temporal trajectory of machine behavioural changes. The proposed real-time model belongs to the Deep Learning category of machine learning and interfaces with the sensors directly or through 'Process Data Historian', SCADA etc., to perform forecasting and classification tasks. Results: The model was interfaced with a Data Historianholding time-series data from 4flow sensors within a water treatment plantfor45 days. The recorded sampling interval for a sensor varied from 10 sec to 30 min. Approximately 65% of the available data was used for training the model, 20% for validation, and the rest for testing. The model identified the anomalies within the water treatment plant and predicted the plant's performance. These results were compared with the data reported by the plant SCADA-Historian system and the official data reported by the plant authorities. The model's accuracy was much higher (20%) than that reported by the SCADA-Historian system and matched the validated results declared by the plant auditors. Conclusions: The research demonstrates that a hybrid GNN based approach enhanced with entropy calculation and spectral information can effectively detect and predict a machine's behavioural changes. The model can interface with a plant's 'process control system' in real-time to perform forecasting and classification tasks to aid the asset management engineers to operate their machines more efficiently and reduce unplanned downtimes. A series of trialsare planned for this model in the future in other manufacturing industries.

Keywords: GNN, Entropy, anomaly detection, industrial time-series, AI, IoT, Industry 4.0, Machine Learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Essam Gooda, Chadi Abdallah, Hamdi Seif, Safaa Baydoun, Rouya Hdeib, Hilal Obeid

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Floods are common natural disaster occurring in semi-arid regions in Lebanon. This results in damage to human life and deterioration of environment. Despite their destructive nature and their immense impact on the socio-economy of the region, flash floods have not received adequate attention from policy and decision makers. This is mainly because of poor understanding of the processes involved and measures needed to manage the problem. The current understanding of flash floods remains at the level of general concepts; most policy makers have yet to recognize that flash floods are distinctly different from normal riverine floods in term of causes, propagation, intensity, impacts, predictability, and management. Flash floods are generally not investigated as a separate class of event but are rather reported as part of the overall seasonal flood situation. As a result, Lebanon generally lacks policies, strategies, and plans relating specifically to flash floods. Main objective of this research is to improve flash flood prediction by providing new knowledge and better understanding of the hydrological processes governing flash floods in the East Catchments of El Assi River. This includes developing rainstorm time distribution curves that are unique for this type of study region; analyzing, investigating, and developing a relationship between arid watershed characteristics (including urbanization) and nearby villages flow flood frequency in Ras Baalbeck and Fekha. This paper discusses different levels of integration approach¬es between GIS and hydrological models (HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS) and presents a case study, in which all the tasks of creating model input, editing data, running the model, and displaying output results. The study area corresponds to the East Basin (Ras Baalbeck & Fakeha), comprising nearly 350 km2 and situated in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon. The case study presented in this paper has a database which is derived from Lebanese Army topographic maps for this region. Using ArcMap to digitizing the contour lines, streams & other features from the topographic maps. The digital elevation model grid (DEM) is derived for the study area. The next steps in this research are to incorporate rainfall time series data from Arseal, Fekha and Deir El Ahmar stations to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment and to combine ArcGIS/ArcMap, HEC-HMS & HEC-RAS models, in order to produce a spatial-temporal model for floodplain analysis at a regional scale. In this study, HEC-HMS and SCS methods were chosen to build the hydrologic model of the watershed. The model then calibrated using flood event that occurred between 7th & 9th of May 2014 which considered exceptionally extreme because of the length of time the flows lasted (15 hours) and the fact that it covered both the watershed of Aarsal and Ras Baalbeck. The strongest reported flood in recent times lasted for only 7 hours covering only one watershed. The calibrated hydrologic model is then used to build the hydraulic model & assessing of flood hazards maps for the region. HEC-RAS Model is used in this issue & field trips were done for the catchments in order to calibrated both Hydrologic and Hydraulic models. The presented models are a kind of flexible procedures for an ungaged watershed. For some storm events it delivers good results, while for others, no parameter vectors can be found. In order to have a general methodology based on these ideas, further calibration and compromising of results on the dependence of many flood events parameters and catchment properties is required.

Keywords: flood risk management, flash flood, semi arid region, El Assi River, hazard maps

Procedia PDF Downloads 459

Authors: Elhadi Nasr, Ibrahim Ramadan

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Biostratigraphical analyses of well sections from the Maragh Low in the Eastern Sirt Basin has allowed high resolution correlations to be undertaken. Full integration of this data with available palaeoenvironmental, lithological, gravity, seismic, aeromagnetic, igneous, radiometric and wireline log information and a geochemical analysis of source rock quality and distribution has led to a more detailed understanding of the geological and the structural history of this area. Pre Sirt Unconformity two superimposed rifting cycles have been identified. The oldest is represented by the Amal Group of sediments and is of Late Carboniferous, Kasimovian / Gzelian to Middle Triassic, Anisian age. Unconformably overlying is a younger rift cycle which is represented the Sarir Group of sediments and is of Early Cretaceous, late Neocomian to Aptian in age. Overlying the Sirt Unconformity is the marine Late Cretaceous section. An assessment of pyrolysis results and a palynofacies analysis has allowed hydrocarbon source facies and quality to be determined. There are a number of hydrocarbon source rock horizons in the Maragh Low, these are sometimes vertically stacked and they are of fair to excellent quality. The oldest identified source rock is the Triassic Shale, this unit is unconformably overlain by sandstones belonging to the Sarir Group and conformably overlies a Triassic Siltstone unit. Palynological dating of the Triassic Shale unit indicates a Middle Triassic, Anisian age. The Triassic Shale is interpreted to have been deposited in a lacustrine palaeoenvironment. This particularly is evidenced by the dark, fine grained, organic rich nature of the sediment and is supported by palynofacies analysis and by the recovery of fish fossils. Geochemical analysis of the Triassic Shale indicates total organic carbon varying between 1.37 and 3.53. S2 pyrolysate yields vary between 2.15 mg/g and 6.61 mg/g and hydrogen indices vary between 156.91 and 278.91. The source quality of the Triassic Shale varies from being of fair to very good / rich. Linked to thermal maturity it is now a very good source for light oil and gas. It was once a very good to rich oil source. The Early Barremian Shale was also deposited in a lacustrine palaeoenvironment. Recovered palynomorphs indicate an Early Cretaceous, late Neocomian to early Barremian age. The Early Barremian Shale is conformably underlain and overlain by sandstone units belonging to the Sarir Group of sediments which are also of Early Cretaceous age. Geochemical analysis of the Early Barremian Shale indicates that it is a good oil source and was originally very good. Total organic carbon varies between 3.59% and 7%. S2 varies between 6.30 mg/g and 10.39 mg/g and the hydrogen indices vary between 148.4 and 175.5. A Late Barremian Shale unit of this age has also been identified in the central Maragh Low. Geochemical analyses indicate that total organic carbon varies between 1.05 and 2.38%, S2 pyrolysate between 1.6 and 5.34 mg/g and the hydrogen index between 152.4 and 224.4. It is a good oil source rock which is now mature. In addition to the non marine hydrocarbon source rocks pre Sirt Unconformity, three formations in the overlying Late Cretaceous section also provide hydrocarbon quality source rocks. Interbedded shales within the Rachmat Formation of Late Cretaceous, early Campanian age have total organic carbon ranging between, 0.7 and 1.47%, S2 pyrolysate varying between 1.37 and 4.00 mg/g and hydrogen indices varying between 195.7 and 272.1. The indication is that this unit would provide a fair gas source to a good oil source. Geochemical analyses of the overlying Tagrifet Limestone indicate that total organic carbon varies between 0.26% and 1.01%. S2 pyrolysate varies between 1.21 and 2.16 mg/g and hydrogen indices vary between 195.7 and 465.4. For the overlying Sirt Shale Formation of Late Cretaceous, late Campanian age, total organic carbon varies between 1.04% and 1.51%, S2 pyrolysate varies between 4.65 mg/g and 6.99 mg/g and the hydrogen indices vary between 151 and 462.9. The study has proven that both the Sirt Shale Formation and the Tagrifet Limestone are good to very good and rich sources for oil in the Maragh Low. High resolution biostratigraphical interpretations have been integrated and calibrated with thermal maturity determinations (Vitrinite Reflectance (%Ro), Spore Colour Index (SCI) and Tmax (ºC) and the determined present day geothermal gradient of 25ºC / Km for the Maragh Low. Interpretation of generated basin modelling profiles allows a detailed prediction of timing of maturation development of these source horizons and leads to a determination of amounts of missing section at major unconformities. From the results the top of the oil window (0.72% Ro) is picked as high as 10,700’ and the base of the oil window (1.35% Ro) assuming a linear trend and by projection is picked as low as 18,000’ in the Maragh Low. For the Triassic Shale the early phase of oil generation was in the Late Palaeocene / Early to Middle Eocene and the main phase of oil generation was in the Middle to Late Eocene. The Early Barremian Shale reached the main phase of oil generation in the Early Oligocene with late generation being reached in the Middle Miocene. For the Rakb Group section (Rachmat Formation, Tagrifet Limestone and Sirt Shale Formation) the early phase of oil generation started in the Late Eocene with the main phase of generation being between the Early Oligocene and the Early Miocene. From studying maturity profiles and from regional considerations it can be predicted that up to 500’ of sediment may have been deposited and eroded by the Sirt Unconformity in the central Maragh Low while up to 2000’ of sediment may have been deposited and then eroded to the south of the trough.

Keywords: Geochemical analysis of the source rocks from wells in Eastern Sirt Basin.

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Manavjit Singh Dhindsa, Ursula Das, Kshirasagar Naik, Marzia Zaman, Richard Purcell, Srinivas Sampalli, Abdul Mutakabbir, Chung-Horng Lung, Thambirajah Ravichandran

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These days, wildland fires, also known as forest fires, are more prevalent than ever. Wildfires have major repercussions that affect ecosystems, communities, and the environment in several ways. Wildfires lead to habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, affecting ecosystems and causing soil erosion. They also contribute to poor air quality by releasing smoke and pollutants that pose health risks, especially for individuals with respiratory conditions. Wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt communities, and cause economic losses. The economic impact of firefighting efforts, combined with their direct effects on forestry and agriculture, causes significant financial difficulties for the areas impacted. This research explores different forest fire spread models and presents a comprehensive review of various techniques and methodologies used in the field. A forest fire spread model is a computational or mathematical representation that is used to simulate and predict the behavior of a forest fire. By applying scientific concepts and data from empirical studies, these models attempt to capture the intricate dynamics of how a fire spreads, taking into consideration a variety of factors like weather patterns, topography, fuel types, and environmental conditions. These models assist authorities in understanding and forecasting the potential trajectory and intensity of a wildfire. Emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of wildfire dynamics, this research explores the approaches, assumptions, and findings derived from various models. By using a comparison approach, a critical analysis is provided by identifying patterns, strengths, and weaknesses among these models. The purpose of the survey is to further wildfire research and management techniques. Decision-makers, researchers, and practitioners can benefit from the useful insights that are provided by synthesizing established information. Fire spread models provide insights into potential fire behavior, facilitating authorities to make informed decisions about evacuation activities, allocating resources for fire-fighting efforts, and planning for preventive actions. Wildfire spread models are also useful in post-wildfire mitigation strategies as they help in assessing the fire's severity, determining high-risk regions for post-fire dangers, and forecasting soil erosion trends. The analysis highlights the importance of customized modeling approaches for various circumstances and promotes our understanding of the way forest fires spread. Some of the known models in this field are Rothermel’s wildland fuel model, FARSITE, WRF-SFIRE, FIRETEC, FlamMap, FSPro, cellular automata model, and others. The key characteristics that these models consider include weather (includes factors such as wind speed and direction), topography (includes factors like landscape elevation), and fuel availability (includes factors like types of vegetation) among other factors. The models discussed are physics-based, data-driven, or hybrid models, also utilizing ML techniques like attention-based neural networks to enhance the performance of the model. In order to lessen the destructive effects of forest fires, this initiative aims to promote the development of more precise prediction tools and effective management techniques. The survey expands its scope to address the practical needs of numerous stakeholders. Access to enhanced early warning systems enables decision-makers to take prompt action. Emergency responders benefit from improved resource allocation strategies, strengthening the efficacy of firefighting efforts.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, deep learning, forest fire management, fire risk assessment, fire simulation, machine learning, remote sensing, wildfire modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Ziyad S. Haidar

Abstract:

Millions of teeth are removed annually, and dental extraction is one of the most commonly performed surgical procedures globally. Whether due to caries, periodontal disease or trauma, exodontia and the ensuing wound healing and bone remodeling processes of the resultant socket (hole in the jaw bone) usually result in serious deformities of the residual alveolar osseous ridge and surrounding soft tissues (reduced height/width). Such voluminous changes render the placement of a proper conventional bridge, denture or even an implant-supported prosthesis extremely challenging. Further, most extractions continue to be performed with no regard for preventing the onset of alveolar osteitis (also known as dry socket, a painful and difficult-to-treat/-manage condition post-exodontia). Hence, such serious resorptive morphological changes often result in significant facial deformities and a negative impact on the overall Quality of Life (QoL) of patients (and oral health-related QoL), alarming, particularly for the geriatric with compromised healing and in light of the thriving longevity statistics. Opportunity: Despite advances in tissue/wound grafting, serious limitations continue to exist, including efficacy and clinical outcome predictability, cost, treatment time, expertise and risk of immune reactions. For cases of dry sockets, specifically, the commercially-available and often-prescribed home remedies are highly lacking. Indeed, most are not recommended for use anymore. Alveogyl is a fine example. Hence, there is a great market demand and need for alternative solutions. Solution: Herein, SockGEL/PLUG (patent pending), an all-natural, drug-free and injectable stimuli-responsive hydrogel, was designed, formulated, characterized and evaluated as an osteogenic, angiogenic, anti-microbial and pain-soothing suture-free intra-alveolar dressing, safe and efficacious for use in several oro-dental and cranio-maxillo-facial interventional applications; for example: in fresh dental extraction sockets, immediately post-exodontia. It is composed of FDA-approved, biocompatible and biodegradable polymers, self-assembled electro-statically to formulate a scaffolding matrix to (a) prevent the onset of alveolar osteitis via securing the fibrin-clot in situ and protecting/sealing the socket from contamination/infection; and (b) endogenously promote/accelerate wound healing and bone remodeling to preserve the volume of the alveolus. Findings: The intrinsic properties of the SockGEL/PLUG hydrogel were evaluated physico-chemico-mechanically for safety (cell viability), viscosity, rheology, bio-distribution and essentially, capacity to induce wound healing and osteogenesis (small defect, in vivo) without any signaling cues from exogenous cells, growth factors or drugs. The performed animal model of cranial critical-sized and non-vascularized bone defects shall provide vitally critical insights into the role and mechanism of the employed natural bio-polymer blend and gel product in endogenous reparative regeneration of soft tissues and bone morphogenesis. Alongside, the fine-tuning of our modified formulation method will further tackle appropriateness, reproducibility, scalability, ease and speed in producing stable, biodegradable and sterilizable stimuli (thermo-sensitive and photo-responsive) matrices (3-dimensional interpenetrating yet porous polymeric network) suitable for an intra-socket application, and beyond. Conclusions and Perspective: Findings are anticipated to provide sufficient evidence to translate into pilot clinical trials and validate the bionanomaterial before engaging the market for feasibility, acceptance and cost-effectiveness studies. The SockGEL/PLUG platform is patent pending: SockGEL is a bio-inspired drug-free hydrogel; SockPLUG is a drug-loaded hydrogel designed for complex indications.

Keywords: hydrogel, injectable, dentistry, craniomaxillofacial complex, bioinspired, nanobiotechnology, biopolymer, sol-gel, stimuli-responsive, matrix, tissue engineering, regenerative medicine

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