Search results for: epidemiological model

Authors: Li-Ching Chen

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The case-control design has been widely applied in clinical and epidemiological studies to investigate the association between risk factors and a given disease. The retrospective design can be easily implemented and is more economical over prospective studies. To adjust effects for confounding factors, methods such as stratification at the design stage and may be adopted. When some major confounding factors are difficult to be quantified, a matching design provides an opportunity for researchers to control the confounding effects. The matching effects can be parameterized by the intercepts of logistic models and the conditional logistic regression analysis is then adopted. This study demonstrates an information-matrix-based goodness-of-fit statistic to test the validity of the logistic regression model for matched case-control data. The asymptotic null distribution of this proposed test statistic is inferred. It needs neither to employ a simulation to evaluate its critical values nor to partition covariate space. The asymptotic power of this test statistic is also derived. The performance of the proposed method is assessed through simulation studies. An example of the real data set is applied to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method as well.

Keywords: conditional logistic model, goodness-of-fit, information matrix, matched case-control studies

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Authors: Pármenas Costa Macedo do Nascimento

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Periodontal disease is the most common disease in the oral cavity of felines. It starts with the accumulation of bacteria on the tooth surface supporting the tissues of the periodontal tissue, namely gums, alveolar bone, cementum, and periodontal ligament. The main clinical symptom observed by the owner is bad breath, which may lead to local and systemic consequences depending on the stage of periodontal disease, such as bleeding and bone loss. Therefore, the study is important to educate tutors to take better care of the felines oral health in order to try to prevent the disease. For this epidemiological study, the target population has been felines, located on the outskirts of Manaus, in the state of Amazonas, with a geographic area of 155.68 km², with no defined breed, from October 1st to 10th, 2021, whose samples has been randomly selected, with a detailed profile. The variables of interest for this study have been: absence or presence of periodontal disease, gender, age (delimited by age group), and condition (domiciled or homeless). Using a sample of 40 felines from 4 districts of the east side of Manaus chosen at random, an oral exam has been made to identify the studied disease. The animal's apparent age, condition, sex, and presence or absence of periodontal disease has been noted. It has been observed that 70% (28/40) of them had periodontal disease, mostly females, aged between 0 and 5 years and domiciled, totaling 30% (12/40).

Keywords: felines, oral cavity, oral exam, periodontal disease

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Authors: Audrius Dedele, Aukse Miskinyte

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Air pollution is a major problem, especially in large cities, causing a variety of environmental issues and a risk to human health effects. In order to observe air quality, to reduce and control air pollution in the city, municipalities are responsible for the creation of air quality management plans, air quality monitoring and emission inventories. Atmospheric dispersion modelling systems, along with monitoring, are powerful tools, which can be used not only for air quality management, but for the assessment of human exposure to air pollution. These models are widely used in epidemiological studies, which try to determine the associations between exposure to air pollution and the adverse health effects. The purpose of this study was to determine the concentration of particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM10) in different districts of Kaunas city during winter season. ADMS-Urban dispersion model was used for the simulation of PM10 pollution. The inputs of the model were the characteristics of stationary, traffic and domestic sources, emission data, meteorology and background concentrations were entered in the model. To assess the modelled concentrations of PM10 in Kaunas districts, geographic information system (GIS) was used. More detailed analysis was made using Spatial Analyst tools. The modelling results showed that the average concentration of PM10 during winter season in Kaunas city was 24.8 µg/m3. The highest PM10 levels were determined in Zaliakalnis and Aleksotas districts with are the highest number of individual residential properties, 32.0±5.2 and 28.7±8.2 µg/m3, respectively. The lowest pollution of PM10 was modelled in Petrasiunai district (18.4 µg/m3), which is characterized as commercial and industrial neighbourhood.

Keywords: air pollution, dispersion model, GIS, Particulate matter

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this work, a new nonlinear model will be introduced. The model is in the state-space form. The nonlinearity of this model is in the state equation where the state vector is multiplied by its self. This technique makes our model generalizes many famous models as Lotka-Volterra model and Lorenz model which have many applications in the real life. We will apply our new model to estimate the wind speed by using a new nonlinear estimator which suitable to work with our model.

Keywords: nonlinear systems, state-space model, Kronecker product, nonlinear estimator

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Authors: Mohamed El Kory Yacoub, Ahmed Bezeid El Mamy Beyatt, Djibril Barry, Yanogo Pauline, Nicolas Meda

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Introduction: Rift Valley Fever is a zoonotic arbovirosis that severely affects ruminants, as well as humans. It causes abortions in pregnant females and deaths in young animals. The disease occurs during heavy rains followed by large numbers of mosquito vectors. The objective of this work is to evaluate the surveillance system for Rift Valley Fever. Methods: We conducted an evaluation of the Rift Valley Fiver surveillance system. Data were collected from the analysis of the national database of the Mauritanian Network of Animal Disease Epidemiological Surveillance at the Ministry of Rural Development, of RVF cases notified from the whole national territory, of questionnaires and interviews with all persons involved in RVF surveillance at the central level. The quality of the system was assessed by analyzing the quantitative attributes defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Results: In 2019, 443 cases of RVF were notified by the surveillance system, of which 36 were positive. Among the notified cases of Rift Valley Fever, the 0- to the 3-year-old age group of small ruminants was the most represented with 49.21% of cases, followed by 33.33%, which was recorded in large ruminants in the 0 to 7-year-old age group, 11.11% of cases were older than seven years. The completeness of the data varied between 14.2% (age) and 100% (species). Most positive cases were recorded between October and November 2019 in seven different regions. Attribute analysis showed that 87% of the respondents were able to use the case definition well, and 78.8% said they were familiar with the reporting and feedback loop of the Rift Valley Fever data. 90.3% of the respondents found it easy, while 95% of them responded that it was easy for them to transmit their data to the next level. Conclusions: The epidemiological surveillance system for Rift Valley Fever in Mauritania is simple and representative. However, data quality, stability, and responsiveness are average, as the diagnosis of the disease requires laboratory confirmation and the average delay for this confirmation is long (13 days). Consequently, the lack of completeness of the recorded data and of description of cases in terms of time-place-animal, associated with the delay between the stages of the surveillance system can make prevention, early detection of epidemics, and the initiation of measures for an adequate response difficult.

Keywords: evaluation, epidemiological surveillance system, rift valley fever, mauritania, ruminants

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Authors: Jihene Bettaieb, Ghassen kharroubi, Rym mallekh, Ines Cherif, Taoufik Atawa, Kaouther Harrabech

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Brucellosis is a major worldwide zoonosis. It is a reportable condition in Tunisia where the disease remains endemic, especially in rural areas. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and bacteriological profile of human brucellosis cases notified in the district of Tunis. It was a retrospective descriptive study of cases reported in the district of Tunis through the national surveillance system between the 1st January and 31th December 2017. During the study period, 133 brucellosis confirmed cases were notified. The mean age was 37.5 ± 18.0 years, and 54.9% of cases were males. More than four-fifths (82.7%) of cases were reported in spring and summer with a peak in the month of May (36 cases). Fever and sweats were the most common symptoms; they occurred in 95% and 72% of cases, respectively. Osteoarticular complications occurred in 10 cases, meningitis in one case and endocarditis in one other case. Wright agglutination test and Rose Bengale test were positive in 100% and 91% of cases, respectively. While blood culture was positive in 9 cases and PCR in 2 cases. Brucella melitensis was the only identified specie (9 cases). Almost all cases (99.2%) reported the habit of consuming raw dairy products. Only 5 cases had a suspect contact with animals; among them, 3 persons were livestock breeders. The transmission was essentially due to raw dairy product consumption. It is important to enhance preventive measures to control animal Brucellosis and to educate the population regarding the risk factors of the disease.

Keywords: brucellosis, risk factors, surveillance system, Tunisia

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Authors: Majid Bayatian, Mohammadreza Ashouri

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Releasing hazardous chemicals is one of the major problems for office buildings in the chemical industry and, therefore, environmental risks are inherent to these environments. The adverse health effects of the airborne concentration of benzene have been a matter of significant concern, especially in oil refineries. The chronic and acute adverse health effects caused by benzene exposure have attracted wide attention. Acute exposure to benzene through inhalation could cause headaches, dizziness, drowsiness, and irritation of the skin. Chronic exposures have reported causing aplastic anemia and leukemia at the occupational settings. Association between chronic occupational exposure to benzene and the development of aplastic anemia and leukemia were documented by several epidemiological studies. Numerous research works have investigated benzene emissions and determined benzene concentration at different locations of the refinery plant and stated considerable health risks. The high cost of industrial control measures requires justification through lifetime health risk assessment of exposed workers and the public. In the present study, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model has been proposed to assess the exposure risk of office building around a refinery due to its release of benzene. For simulation, GAMBIT, FLUENT, and CFD Post software were used as pre-processor, processor, and post-processor, and the model was validated based on comparison with experimental results of benzene concentration and wind speed. Model validation results showed that the model is highly validated, and this model can be used for health risk assessment. The simulation and risk assessment results showed that benzene could be dispersion to an office building nearby, and the exposure risk has been unacceptable. According to the results of this study, a validated CFD model, could be very useful for decision-makers for control measures and possibly support them for emergency planning of probable accidents. Also, this model can be used to assess exposure to various types of accidents as well as other pollutants such as toluene, xylene, and ethylbenzene in different atmospheric conditions.

Keywords: health risk assessment, office building, Benzene, numerical simulation, CFD

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Isabel Cristina Ortiz Trujillo, Lina Maria Martinez Sanchez, Felipe Hernández Restrepo, Daniel Gallego Gonzalez, Natalia Vargas Grisales, Camilo Andrés Agudelo Vélez

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Chorioamnionitis, is a pregnancy infection, causes different fetal and maternal symptoms. Streptococcus agalactiae present in the normal vaginal microflora of some women, favouring its abnormal multiplication during pregnancy, causing perinatal morbidity and mortality. Objective. Describe the clinical and epidemiological profile of the patients with diagnosis of clinical chorioanmionitis. Methodology. Descriptive, cross-sectional study. The population was patients with diagnosis of clinical chorioanmionitis. The information was taken from the medical records. The research was approved by the Ethics Committee. We used the program SPSS ® version 17.0 (SPSS Inc; Chicago, Illinois, USA) for the information analysis, descriptive statistics were used. Results. 78 patients in total with clinical chorioamnionitis, with a mean age of 26.3 ±5, 8 years old, the 69.2% primigravid women. 2.6% of women had positive culture for Streptococcus agalactiae in urine sample during current pregnancy and 30.7% had received some kind of antibiotics during current pregnancy. The 57.7% had 37 to 40 weeks of gestation in the current pregnancy it was calculated more frequently by ultrasound (66.7% in first quarter, 11.5% in the second and 1.9% in the third). In a 60.3% way of termination of pregnancy was vaginal and a 35.9 percent were caesarean section. Among the women in the study, a 30.8% had premature rupture of membranes. Conclusion. The chorioamnionitis continues to be an important cause of antibiotic use during pregnancy or labour and the decision to do a caesarean, with highest percentage in pregnancies-preterm and preterm premature rupture of membranes.

Keywords: chorioamnionitis, Streptococcus agalactiae, pregnancy complications, infectious

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Authors: Fouzia Khanam, Belal Hossain, Kaosar Afsana, Mahfuzar Rahman

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Aim: Although cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has already been recognized as a major cause of death in developed countries, its prevalence is rising in developing countries as well, and engendering a challenge for the health sector. Bangladesh has experienced an epidemiological transition from communicable to non-communicable diseases over the last few decades. So, the rising prevalence of CVD and its risk factors are imposing a major problem for the country. We aimed to examine the prevalence of CVDs and socioeconomic and lifestyle factors related to it from a population-based survey. Methods: The data used for this study were collected as a part of a large-scale cross-sectional study conducted to explore the overall health status of children, mothers and senior citizens of Bangladesh. Multistage cluster random sampling procedure was applied by considering unions as clusters and households as the primary sampling unit to select a total of 11,428 households for the base survey. Present analysis encompassed 12338 respondents of ≥ 35 years, selected from both rural areas and urban slums of the country. Socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle information were obtained through individual by a face-to-face interview which was noted in ODK platform. And height, weight, blood pressure and glycosuria were measured using standardized methods. Chi-square test, Univariate modified Poisson regression model, and multivariate modified Poisson regression model were done using STATA software (version 13.0) for analysis. Results: Overall, the prevalence of CVD was 4.51%, of which 1.78% had stroke and 3.17% suffered from heart diseases. Male had higher prevalence of stroke (2.20%) than their counterparts (1.37%). Notably, thirty percent of respondents had high blood pressure and 5% population had diabetes and more than half of the population was pre-hypertensive. Additionally, 20% were overweight, 77% were smoker or consumed smokeless tobacco and 28% of respondents were physically inactive. Eighty-two percent of respondents took extra salt while eating and 29% of respondents had deprived sleep. Furthermore, the prevalence of risk factor of CVD varied according to gender. Women had a higher prevalence of overweight, obesity and diabetes. Women were also less physically active compared to men and took more extra salt. Smoking was lower in women compared to men. Moreover, women slept less compared to their counterpart. After adjusting confounders in modified Poisson regression model, age, gender, occupation, wealth quintile, BMI, extra salt intake, daily sleep, tiredness, diabetes, and hypertension remained as risk factors for CVD. Conclusion: The prevalence of CVD is significant in Bangladesh, and there is an evidence of rising trend for its risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes especially in older population, women and high-income groups. Therefore, in this current epidemiological transition, immediate public health intervention is warranted to address the overwhelming CVD risk.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, stroke

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Recurrent infant diarrhea is studied using daily data collected in Salvador, Brazil over one year and three months. A logistic regression model is fitted instead of Aalen's additive model using the same covariates that were used in the analysis with the additive model. The model gives reasonably similar results to that using additive regression model. In addition, the problem with the estimated conditional probabilities not being constrained between zero and one in additive model is solved here. Also martingale residuals that have been used to judge the goodness of fit for the additive model are shown to be useful for judging the goodness of fit of the logistic model.

Keywords: additive model, cumulative probabilities, infant diarrhoea, recurrent event

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Authors: Benoit Jauniaux, Azzam Ismail

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Objectives: The aims were to identify all incident adult cases of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) in the City of Leeds, UK, and to estimate the risk of cancer in IIMs as compared with the general population. Methods: Cases of IIMs were ascertained by review of all muscle biopsy reports from the Neuropathology Laboratory. A review of medical records was undertaken for each case to review the clinical diagnosis and collect epidemiological data such as age, ethnicity, sex, and comorbidities, including cancer. Leeds denominator population numbers were publicly obtainable. Results: Two hundred and six biopsy reports were identified, and after review, 50 incident cases were included in the study between June 2010 and January 2021. Out of the 50 cases, 27 were male, and 23 were female. The mean incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds throughout the study period was 7.42/1 000 000 person years. The proportion of IIMs cases with a confirmed malignancy was 22%. Compared to the general population, the relative risk of cancer was significantly greater in the IIMs population(31.56, P < 0.01). Conclusions: The incidence rate of IIMs in Leeds was consistent with data from previous literature, however, disagreement exists between different methods of IIMs case inclusion due to varying clinical criteria and definitions. IIMs are associated with increased risk of cancer however, the pathogenesis of this relationship still requires investigating. This study supports the practice of malignancy screening and long-term surveillance in patients with IIMs.

Keywords: idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, myositis, polymyositis, dermatomyositis, malignancy, epidemiology, incidence rate, relative risk

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Authors: S. Tebibel, R. L. Bouchouka, C. Mechati, S. Messaoudi

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The stomach cancer or gastric cancer is an aggressive cancer with a significant geographic disparity. The decrease in frequency is attributed to refrigeration, which has several beneficial consequences, increased consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables, reduced consumption of salt, which was widely used as a food preservative, and less contamination of food by carcinogenic compounds. The infection with Helicobacter pylori is responsible for progressive inflammatory changes in the gastric mucosa usually evolving into stomach cancer in 80% of cases. Methodology: This epidemiological and analytical study concerns 65 patients (46 men and 19 women) with gastric adenocarcinomas with an average age of 56.5 years and a male predominance with a sex ratio of 2.4. Results and Discussion: In this series, the clinical symptoms are dominated by epigastralgia (72.31%), vomiting (27,69%), and slimming (24,62%). The FOGD (Oeso-Gastro Duodenal Fibroscopy) performed in the 65 patients revealed a predominance of the antro-pyloric localization in 19 cases (i.e., 29.23%) and anulcerative budding appearance in 33 subjects (50,77%). Histologically, the moderately differentiated adenocarcinoma is found in 30.77% of patients, followed by well differentiated adenocarcinoma with 26.15% of patients. The immunohistochemical study revealed a positive labeling of half of the T cells by anti-CD3 AC, and a positive labeling of anti-CD20 AC in a diffuse and intense manner, with the presence of CD20-positive lymphoepithelial lesions compatible with CD20 a low grade MALT non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Conclusion: This framework of analysis revealed some risk factors for gastric cancer, such as food, hygiene, Helicobacter pylori infection, smoking and family history.

Keywords: cancer, Helicobacter pylori, immunohistochemistry, stomach

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Authors: Patience Manjengwa-Hungwe, Carmen White

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Background: Odyssean malaria refers to malaria acquired by infected mosquito bites from malaria endemic to non-endemic regions by mechanical modes of transport, such as airplanes, water vessels, trains and vehicles. Odyssean Malaria is rare and is characterised by absence of travel history to malaria endemic areas. As not anticipated in non-endemic areas, late diagnosis and treatment lead to a high case fatality rate. On 26 September 2014, the Outbreak Response Unit at the National Institute of Communicable Diseases was notified of a suspected death from Odyssean Malaria in Johannesburg, Gauteng Province, a non-endemic area. The main objective of this investigation was to identify the etiological agent's mode and source of transmission. Methods: Epidemiological surveys were conducted with the deceased’s family and clinical details were obtained from doctors who treated the victim in Southrand, Johannesburg. Blood samples were collected prior to death and sent to the National Health Laboratory Services, Johannesburg laboratory for a full blood count, urea electrolytes, creatinine, and C-reactive protein. Environmental assessments and entomological investigations, including collection of mosquito and larvae, were conducted at the deceased’s home and surrounding areas and sent to the laboratory for analysis. Results: Epidemiological surveys revealed no travel history, no mechanical transmission through blood transfusion and no previous possible exposure of the victim to malaria mosquitoes. Laboratory findings indicated that the platelet count was low. A further smear revealed that the malaria parasite was present and malaria antigen for P. falciparum was positive. Entomological findings revealed that none of the six adult or larval mosquitoes collected on site were malaria vectors. Dumping sites found at the back of the house were identified as possible sites where mosquitoes from endemic places could possibly breed. Conclusion: Given that there was no travel history or the possibility of mechanical transmission (blood transfusion or needle), the research team concluded that it is highly probable that the infection was acquired through an infective Anopheles mosquito inadvertently translocated from a Malaria endemic area by mechanical modes of transport. We recommend that clinicians in non-endemic malaria areas be aware of this type of malaria and test for malaria in patients showing malaria-like symptoms.

Keywords: Odyssean Malaria, vector Bourne, malaria, epidemiological surveys

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Authors: Aouissi Nora, Meksem Leila

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This work focused on the study of air pollution generated by the transport sector in the region of Annaba. Our study is based on two parts: the first one concerns an epidemiological investigation in the area of Annaba situated in the east Algerian coast, which deals with the development of the fleet and its impact on public health. To get a more precise idea of the impact of road traffic on public health, we consulted the computing center office of the National Social Insurance Fund. The information we were given by this office refers to the number of reported asthma and heart disease after medical examination during the period 2006-2010. The second part was devoted to the study of the toxicity of exhaust gases on some physical and biochemical parameters of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.). After germination and three-leaf stage, the pots are placed in a box of volume (0,096 m3) having an input which is linked directly to the exhaust pipe of a truck, and an outlet to prevent asphyxiation plant. The experience deals with 30 pots: 10 pots are exposed for 5 minutes to exhaust smoke; the other 10 are exposed for 15 minutes, and the remaining 10 for 30 minutes. The epidemiological study shows that the levels of pollutants emitted by the fleet are responsible for the increase of people respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. As for biochemical analyses of vegetation, they clearly show the toxicity of pollutants emitted by the exhaust gases, with an increase in total protein, proline and stimulation of detoxification enzyme (catalase).

Keywords: air pollution, toxicity, epidemiology, biochemistry

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Authors: Samuel Munaf, Kevin Swingler, Franz Brülisauer, Anthony O’Hare, George Gunn, Aaron Reeves

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Web scraping and text mining are popular computer science methods deployed by public health researchers to augment traditional epidemiological surveillance. However, within veterinary disease surveillance, such techniques are still in the early stages of development and have not yet been fully utilised. This study presents an exploration into the utility of incorporating internet-based data to better understand the smallholder farming communities within Scotland by using online text extraction and the subsequent mining of this data. Web scraping of the livestock fora was conducted in conjunction with text mining of the data in search of common themes, words, and topics found within the text. Results from bi-grams and topic modelling uncover four main topics of interest within the data pertaining to aspects of livestock husbandry: feeding, breeding, slaughter, and disposal. These topics were found amongst both the poultry and pig sub-forums. Topic modeling appears to be a useful method of unsupervised classification regarding this form of data, as it has produced clusters that relate to biosecurity and animal welfare. Internet data can be a very effective tool in aiding traditional veterinary surveillance methods, but the requirement for human validation of said data is crucial. This opens avenues of research via the incorporation of other dynamic social media data, namely Twitter and Facebook/Meta, in addition to time series analysis to highlight temporal patterns.

Keywords: veterinary epidemiology, disease surveillance, infodemiology, infoveillance, smallholding, social media, web scraping, sentiment analysis, geolocation, text mining, NLP

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Authors: Muhammad Tahir Riaz, Khalid Mehmood, Ahmad Waseem Akhtar, Tariq Abbas, Sadaqat Ali, Muhammad Altaf

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Livestock sector contributes around 55.9 and 11.8% to agriculture and GDP respectively, according to economic survey of Pakistan 2013-2014. The goats population has been estimated about 66.6 million (M). Parasitic infestation is a major health problem in goats causing loss in body weight, poor body condition, low birth weights, and difficulty in kidding. Keeping in view the utilization of these animals in the country, a pilot epidemiological survey was conducted to find out the major parasitic problems of goats in and around Derawar fort area, Cholistan. Data regarding 662 fecal samples of goats was collected from 25 tobas of Cholistan during June 2012 to June 2013. All the fecal samples were examined through Direct Smear Method and Salt Flotation Technique for the presence of helminth eggs. External parasites were taken from the various components of the carcass of goat and were conserved in 70% alcohol in hygienic, properly enclosed glass jars that were tagged thoroughly. The collected date was analyzed statistically by Chi-square test to find out the prevalence in goats. Out of 662 goats, 261 (39.42%) were found positive for parasites. 233 (35.20%) goats were found positive for gastrointestinal parasites while 28 (4.23%) were positive for external parasites including ticks 20 (3.02%) and mange 8 (1.21%). The higher prevalence of parasites in the study area may be due to pasture grazing, poor management and lack of extension work. In this regards proper management and control measures should be adopted to minimize the Parasitic Problems.

Keywords: Cholistan, goats, parasite, surveillance

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Authors: Tomasz Balabanski, Anna Biedunkiewicz

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Research on basic bacteriological and physicochemical parameters conducted by state institutions (Provincial Sanitary and Epidemiological Station and District Sanitary and Epidemiological Station) are limited to bathing waters under constant sanitary and epidemiological supervision. Unfortunately, no routine or monitoring tests are carried out for the presence of microfungi. This also applies to beach sand used for recreational purposes. The purpose of the planned own research was to determine the diversity of the mycobiota present on supervised and unsupervised sandy beaches, on the shores of lakes, of municipal baths used for recreation. The research material consisted of microfungi isolated from April to October 2019 from sandy beaches of supervised and unsupervised lakes located within the administrative boundaries of the city of Olsztyn (North-Eastern Poland, Europe). Four lakes, out of the fifteen available (Tyrsko, Kortowskie, Skanda, and Ukiel), whose bathing waters are subjected to routine bacteriological tests, were selected for testing. To compare the diversity of the mycobiota composition on the surface and below the sand mixing layer, samples were taken from two depths (10 cm and 50 cm), using a soil auger. Micro-fungi from sand samples were obtained by surface inoculation on an RBC medium from the 1st dilution (1:10). After incubation at 25°C for 96-144 h, the average number of CFU/dm³ was counted. Morphologically differing yeast colonies were passaged into Sabouraud agar slants with gentamicin and incubated again. For detailed laboratory analyses, culture methods (macro- and micro-cultures) and identification methods recommended in diagnostic mycological laboratories were used. The conducted research allowed obtaining 140 yeast isolates. The total average population ranged from 1.37 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ before the bathing season (April 2019), 1.64 × 10⁻³ CFU/dm³ in the season (May-September 2019), and 1.60 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ after the end of the season (October 2019). More microfungi were obtained from the surface layer of sand (100 isolates) than from the deeper layer (40 isolates). Reported microfungi may circulate seasonally between individual elements of the lake ecosystem. From the sand/soil from the catchment area beaches, they can get into bathing waters, stopping periodically on the coastal phyllosphere. The sand of the beaches and the phyllosphere are a kind of filter for the water reservoir. The presence of microfungi with various pathogenicity potential in these places is of major epidemiological importance. Therefore, full monitoring of not only recreational waters but also sandy beaches should be treated as an element of constant control by appropriate supervisory institutions, allowing recreational areas for public use so that the use of these places does not involve the risk of infection. Acknowledgment: 'Development Program of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn', POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17, co-financed by the European Union under the European Social Fund from the Operational Program Knowledge Education Development. Tomasz Bałabański is a recipient of a scholarship from the Programme Interdisciplinary Doctoral Studies in Biology and Biotechnology (POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17), which is funded by the 'European Social Fund'.

Keywords: beach, microfungi, sand, yeasts

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Authors: N. Haj Salem, M. Belhadj, S. Ben Jomâa, S. Saadi, R. Dhouieb, A. Chadly

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Introduction: Sudden death in young is seen as a dramatic phenomenon requiring knowledge of its impact and determining their causes. Aim: We aim to study the epidemiological characteristics of sudden death in young, and to discuss the mechanism and the importance of autopsy in these situations. Material and methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using autopsy data from the department of forensic medicine at the University Hospital of Fattouma Bourguiba, Monastir-Tunisia. A review of all autopsies performed during 23 years was done. In each case, clinical information and circumstances of death were obtained. We have included all sudden death in persons aged between 1 year and 35 years for the male and from one year to 45 years for female. We collected 312 cases of sudden death during the studied period. The collected data were processed using SPSS 20. The significance level was set at 0.05. Results: Thirty-two cases of cardiac ischemic sudden death have been collected. Myocardial infarction was the second cause of sudden death in young patients. There was a male predominance. The most affected subjects were aged between 25-45 years. The death occurred more frequently at rest. Coronary artery disease has been discovered in twenty-four cases (75%). A severe coronary artery disease was observed in two children with medical history of familial hypercholesterolemia. The myocardial infarction occurred in healthy coronary arteries in eight cases. An anomalous course of coronary arteries, in particular, myocardial bridging, was found in eight cases (25%). Toxicological screening was negative in all cases. Second cause of death was hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Neurological and respiratory causes of death were implicated respectively in 10% and 15%. Conclusion: Identifying epidemiological characteristics of sudden death in this population is important for guiding approaches to prevention that must be based on dietary hygienic measures and the control of cardiovascular risk factors.

Keywords: autopsy, cardiac death, sudden death, young

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Authors: Mechlouch Ridha Fethi

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This paper presents a recent mathematical model in political sciences concerning democracy. The model is represented by a logarithmic equation linking the Relative Index of Democracy (RID) to Participation Ratio (PR). Firstly the meanings of the different parameters of the model were presented; and the variation curve of the RID according to PR with different critical areas was discussed. Secondly, the model was applied to a virtual group where we show that the model can be applied depending on the gender. Thirdly, it was observed that the model can be extended to different language models of democracy and that little use to assess the state of democracy for some International organizations like UNO.

Keywords: democracy, mathematic, modelization, quantification

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Authors: Tekle Olbamo, Tegegn Tesfaye, Dikaso Unbushe, Belete Jorga

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Bovine trypanosomosis is a haemoprotozoan parasitic disease, mostly transmitted by the tsetse fly (Glossina species) and poses significant losses to the livestock industry in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. Therefore, the current study was aimed to determine the prevalence of bovine trypanosomosis and its vectorial density in some selected tsetse suppression and non-tsetse suppression areas of South Omo Zonefrom December 2018- November 2019. Dark phase contrast buffy coat, hematocrit techniques, and thin blood smear method were used for determination of prevalence and packed cell volume of trypanosomosis infection, respectively. For entomological investigation, 96 NGU traps were deployed (64 traps in tsetse suppression areas, 32 traps in tsetse non-suppression areas) in vector breeding areas. The overall prevalence of bovine trypanosomosis was 11.05% (142/1284), and overall seasonal prevalence of disease was 14.33% (92/642) and 7.78% (50/642) for dry and wet seasons, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference (P <0.05) in disease prevalence between the two seasons. Trypanosomacongolensewas the dominant parasite species; 80% and 71.64%, followed by Trypanosomavivax. Overall mean packed cell volume indicated parasitaemic animals (23.57±3.13) had significantly lower PCV than aparasitaemic animals (27.80±4.95), and animals examined during dry season (26.22±4.37) had lower mean PCV than animals examined during wet season with the significant association. Entomological study result revealed a total of 2.64 F/T/D and 2.03 F/T/D respectively from tsetse suppression areas and tsetse non-suppression areas during dry season and 0.42 F/T/D and 0.56 F/T/D during the wet season. Glossinapallidipes was the only cyclical vectors collected and identified from current study areas along with numerous mechanical vectors of genus Tabanus, Stomoxys, and Haematopota. Therefore integrated and safe control and prevention effort should be engaged to uphold cattle production and productivity in the area.

Keywords: bovine trypanosomiasis, South Omo, tsetse fly density, epidemiological study

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Authors: Le Kang

Abstract:

On the research question of 'how to achieve USR', this contribution reflects the concept of university social responsibility, identify three achievement models of USR as the society - diversified model, the university-cooperation model, the government - compound model, also conduct a case study to explore characteristics of Chinese achievement model of USR. The contribution concludes with discussion of how the university, government and society balance demands and roles, make necessarily strategic adjustment and innovative approach to repair the shortcomings of each achievement model.

Keywords: modern university, USR, achievement model, compound model

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Authors: Camilo Andres Agudelo-Velez, Lina María Martinez-Sanchez, Natalia Perilla-Hernandez, Maria De Los Angeles Rodriguez-Gazquez, Felipe Hernandez-Restrepo, Dayana Andrea Quintero-Moreno, Camilo Ruiz-Mejia, Isabel Cristina Ortiz-Trujillo, Monica Maria Zuluaga-Quintero

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Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is common condition, characterized by a persistent blockage of airflow, partially reversible and progressive, that represents 5% of total deaths around the world, and it is expected to become the third leading cause of death by 2030. Objective: To establish the clinical and epidemiological profile of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a medical institution from the city of Medellin, Colombia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed, with a sample of 50 patients with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a private institution in Medellin, during 2015. The software SPSS vr. 20 was used for the statistical analysis. For the quantitative variables, averages, standard deviations, and maximun and minimun values were calculated, while for ordinal and nominal qualitative variables, proportions were estimated. Results: The average age was 73.5±9.3 years, 52% of the patients were women, 50% of them had retired, 46% ere married and 80% lived in the city of Medellín. The mean time of diagnosis was 7.8±1.3 years and 100% of the patients were treated at the internal medicine service. The most common clinical features were: 36% were classified as class D for the disease, 34% had a FEV1 <30%, 88% had a history of smoking and 52% had oxygen therapy at home. Conclusion: It was found that class D was the most common, and the majority of the patients had a history of smoking, indicating the need to strengthen promotion and prevention strategies in this regard.

Keywords: pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive, pulmonary medicine, oxygen inhalation therapy

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Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

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Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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Authors: S. I. Enem, S. I. Oboegbulem

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Objective: The most frequently implicated E. coli serotype causing haemorrhagic colitis and haemorrhagic uraemic syndrome (HUS) is VTEC 0157. However, non-O157 VTEC is now known to be as prevalent as VETC O157 infection (or even more) in most parts of the world. The objective of the study was to establish the occurrence of non-O157 VTEC serotypes in cattle in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja, Nigeria. The level of significance of the infection with sex, age and season were also tested. Methods: The study was carried out in the FCT, Abuja, Nigeria which is located between latitude 8o and 90 25` North of the equator and longitude 60 45` and 7045` East of the Greenwich meridian. The cross sectional epidemiological method and multi-staged sampling technique were used in this study. Samples were collected from the freshly voided faeces of both apparently healthy and diarrhoeic cattle in selected abattoirs and cattle herds. Enriched samples were analyzed bacteriologically and biochemically after which they were characterised using commercially prepared latex agglutination test kits. Results: A total of 718 faecal samples from cattle were analyzed for the presence of VTEC non-O157. Thirty eight (5.23%) were positive for non-O157. There was no significant association (p > 0.05) between sex and infection with non-O157 VTEC in cattle. There was a significant association (P < 0.05) between age and infection with non-O157 VTEC in cattle. Calves were more associated than the adults. There was also a significant association (P < 0.05) between season and infection with non-O157 VTEC in cattle. The dry season was more associated than the wet season. Conclusion: The study established the occurrence and prevalence of non-O157 VTEC in cattle in FCT, Abuja, Nigeria. As a major food animal in Nigeria, infection in cattle provides an epidemiological causal association to the infection in humans. The result showed that warmer seasons (dry season) stimulate the presence of VTEC infection in animals and thus, as a consequence, increases the number of human cases. The prevalence was also higher in younger calves (< 6 months) probably as a result of undeveloped immune system.

Keywords: prevalence, distribution, Verocytotoxigenic escherichia coli (VTEC), non-O157 serotypes, cattle

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Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cerdova

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The contamination of food by microbial agents is a common problem in the industry, especially regarding the elaboration of animal source products. Incorrect manipulation of the machinery or on the raw materials can cause a decrease in production or an epidemiological outbreak due to intoxication. In order to improve food product quality, different methods have been used to reduce or, at least, to slow down the growth of the pathogens, especially deteriorated, infectious or toxigenic bacteria. These methods are usually carried out under low temperatures and short processing time (abiotic agents), along with the application of antibacterial substances, such as bacteriocins (biotic agents). This, in a controlled and efficient way that fulfills the purpose of bacterial control without damaging the final product. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to design a secondary mathematical model that allows the prediction of both the biotic and abiotic factor impact associated with animal source food processing. In order to accomplish this objective, the authors propose a three-dimensional differential equation model, whose components are: bacterial growth, release, production and artificial incorporation of bacteriocins and changes in pH levels of the medium. These three dimensions are constantly being influenced by the temperature of the medium. Secondly, this model adapts to an idealized situation of cross-contamination animal source food processing, with the study agents being both the animal product and the contact surface. Thirdly, the stochastic simulations and the parametric sensibility analysis are compared with referential data. The main results obtained from the analysis and simulations of the mathematical model were to discover that, although bacterial growth can be stopped in lower temperatures, even lower ones are needed to eradicate it. However, this can be not only expensive, but counterproductive as well in terms of the quality of the raw materials and, on the other hand, higher temperatures accelerate bacterial growth. In other aspects, the use and efficiency of bacteriocins are an effective alternative in the short and medium terms. Moreover, an indicator of bacterial growth is a low-level pH, since lots of deteriorating bacteria are lactic acids. Lastly, the processing times are a secondary agent of concern when the rest of the aforementioned agents are under control. Our main conclusion is that when acclimating a mathematical model within the context of the industrial process, it can generate new tools that predict bacterial contamination, the impact of bacterial inhibition, and processing method times. In addition, the mathematical modeling proposed logistic input of broad application, which can be replicated on non-meat food products, other pathogens or even on contamination by crossed contact of allergen foods.

Keywords: bacteriocins, cross-contamination, mathematical model, temperature

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Authors: Zhou Jianhong

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Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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Authors: Shahadut Hossain, Jacek Wesolowski, Zahirul Hoque

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In many epidemiological and environmental studies covariate measurements are subject to the detection limit. In most applications, covariate measurements are usually truncated from below which is known as left-truncation. Because the measuring device, which we use to measure the covariate, fails to detect values falling below the certain threshold. In regression analyses, it causes inflated bias and inaccurate mean squared error (MSE) to the estimators. This paper suggests a response-based regression calibration method to correct the deleterious impact introduced by the covariate detection limit in the estimators of the parameters of simple logistic regression model. Compared to the maximum likelihood method, the proposed method is computationally simpler, and hence easier to implement. It is robust to the violation of distributional assumption about the covariate of interest. In producing correct inference, the performance of the proposed method compared to the other competing methods has been investigated through extensive simulations. A real-life application of the method is also shown using data from a population-based case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

Keywords: environmental exposure, detection limit, left truncation, bias, ad-hoc substitution

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Authors: L. Madouni, M. Ould Ouali, N. E. Hannachi

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Two constitutive models for concrete are available in ABAQUS/Explicit, the Brittle Cracking Model and the Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model, and their suitability and limitations are well known. The aim of the present paper is to implement a damage-friction concrete constitutive model and to evaluate the performance of this model by comparing the predicted response with experimental data. The constitutive formulation of this material model is reviewed. In order to have consistent results, the parameter identification and calibration for the model have been performed. Several numerical simulations are presented in this paper, whose results allow for validating the capability of the proposed model for reproducing the typical nonlinear performances of concrete structures under different monotonic and cyclic load conditions. The results of the evaluation will be used for recommendations concerning the application and further improvements of the investigated model.

Keywords: Abaqus, concrete, constitutive model, numerical simulation

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 44