Search results for: empirical bayesian

Authors: Shu-Yu Chung, Ying-Fang Wang, Shih-Min Wang

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To conduct long-term exposure assessments are important for workers exposed to chemicals with chronic effects. However, it usually encounters with several constrains, including cost, workers' willingness, and interference to work practice, etc., leading to inadequate long-term exposure data in the real world. In this study, an integrated approach was developed for conducting long-term exposure assessment for welding workers in a shipbuilding factory. A laboratory study was conducted to yield the fume generation rates under various operating conditions. The results and the measured environmental conditions were applied to the near field/far field (NF/FF) model for predicting long term fume exposures via the Monte Carlo simulation. Then, the predicted long-term concentrations were used to determine the prior distribution in Bayesian decision analysis (BDA). Finally, the resultant posterior distributions were used to assess the long-term exposure and serve as basis for initiating control strategies for shipbuilding workers. Results show that the NF/FF model was a suitable for predicting the exposures of metal contents containing in welding fume. The resultant posterior distributions could effectively assess the long-term exposures of shipbuilding welders. Welders' long-term Fe, Mn and Pb exposures were found with high possibilities to exceed the action level indicating preventive measures should be taken for reducing welders' exposures immediately. Though the resultant posterior distribution can only be regarded as the best solution based on the currently available predicting and monitoring data, the proposed integrated approach can be regarded as a possible solution for conducting long term exposure assessment in the field.

Keywords: Bayesian decision analysis, exposure assessment, near field and far field model, shipbuilding industry, welding fume

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Authors: Dumitru Valentin Florentin

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The need to use high volumes of data and the high competition are only two reasons which make necessary the use of information technologies. The objective of our research is to establish the impact of information technologies on the accounting department of the Romanian companies. In order to achieve it, starting from the literature review we made an empirical research based on a questionnaire. We investigated the types of technologies used, the reasons which led to the implementation of certain technologies, the benefits brought by the use of the information technologies, the difficulties brought by the implementation and the future effects of the applications. The conclusions show that there is an evolution in the degree of implementation of the information technologies in the Romanian companies, compared with the results of other studies conducted a few years before.

Keywords: information technologies, impact, company, Romania, empirical study

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Authors: Demet Ozgur-Unluakin, Busenur Turkali, S. Caglar Aksezer

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Since the age of industrialization, maintenance has always been a very crucial element for all kinds of factories and plants. With today’s increasingly developing technology, the system structure of such facilities has become more complicated, and even a small operational disruption may return huge losses in profits for the companies. In order to reduce these costs, effective maintenance planning is crucial, but at the same time, it is a difficult task because of the complexity of systems. The most important aspect of correct maintenance planning is to understand the structure of the system, not to ignore the dependencies among the components and as a result, to model the system correctly. In this way, it will be better to understand which component improves the system more when it is maintained. Undoubtedly, proactive maintenance at a scheduled time reduces costs because the scheduled maintenance prohibits high losses in profits. But the necessity of corrective maintenance, which directly affects the situation of the system and provides direct intervention when the system fails, should not be ignored. When a fault occurs in the system, if the problem is not solved immediately and proactive maintenance time is awaited, this may result in increased costs. This study proposes various maintenance methods with different efficiency measures under corrective maintenance strategy on a subsystem of a thermal power plant. To model the dependencies between the components, dynamic Bayesian Network approach is employed. The proposed maintenance methods aim to minimize the total maintenance cost in a planning horizon, as well as to find the most appropriate component to be attacked on, which improves the system reliability utmost. Performances of the methods are compared under corrective maintenance strategy. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is also applied under different cost values. Results show that all fault effect methods perform better than the replacement effect methods and this conclusion is also valid under different downtime cost values.

Keywords: dynamic Bayesian networks, maintenance, multi-component systems, reliability

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Authors: V. Bosilj Vuksic

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This paper aims to investigate business process management (BPM) maturity in Croatian companies. First, a brief literature review of the research field is given. Next, the results of empirical research are presented, analyzed and discussed. The results reveal that Croatian companies achieved the intermediate level of BPM maturity. The empirical evidence supports the proposed theoretical background. Furthermore, a case study approach was used to illustrate BPM adoption in a Croatian company at the upmost stage of BPM maturity. In practical terms, this case study identifies BPM maturity success factors that need to exist in order for a company to effectively adopt BPM.

Keywords: business process management, case study, Croatian companies, maturity, process performance index, questionnaire

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Authors: Ritu Sharma, Haifeng Shen

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Teaching introductory programming is a challenging task in tertiary education and various factors are believed to have influence on students’ learning of programming. However, these factors were largely studied independently in a chosen context. This paper aims to investigate whether interrelationships exist among the factors and whether the interrelationships are context-dependent. In this empirical study, two universities were chosen from two continents, which represent different cultures, teaching methodologies, assessment criteria and languages used to teach programming in west and east worlds respectively. The results reveal that some interrelationships are common across the two different contexts, while others appear context-dependent.

Keywords: introductory programming, tertiary education, factors, interrelationships, context, empirical study

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Authors: Bernur Acikgoz

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of public spending on economic growth and examine the sources of economic growth in developed countries since the 1990s. This paper analyses whether public spending effect on economic growth based on Cobb-Douglas Production Function with the two econometric models with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) for 21 developed countries (high-income OECD countries), over the period 1990-2013. Our models results are parallel to each other and the models support that public spending has an important role for economic growth. This result is accurate with theories and previous empirical studies.

Keywords: public spending, economic growth, panel data, ARDL models

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Authors: Emna Hlel, Salma Jamousi, Abdelmajid Ben Hamadou

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Every model for knowledge representation to model real-world applications must be able to cope with the effects of uncertain phenomena. One of main defects of classical ontology is its inability to represent and reason with uncertainty. To remedy this defect, we try to propose a method to construct probabilistic ontology for integrating uncertain information in an ontology modeling a set of basic publications DBLP (Digital Bibliography & Library Project) using a probabilistic model.

Keywords: classical ontology, probabilistic ontology, uncertainty, Bayesian network

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Authors: Anatoliy Kharkhurin

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This presentation picks up on a widely discussed topic in both multilingualism and creativity research that comes from pedagogical considerations. The research conducted by the author over last 10 years has delivered a solid argument that speaking more than one language facilitates an individual’s creative capacities. The author has expanded the scope of his research and implemented these findings in education. After reviewing the empirical evidence concerning a relationship between multilingual practice and creative behavior, he proposes a new program that includes teaching strategies from both fields, a unified Bilingual Creative Education program. The program is grounded in several conceptual premises. Specifically, it aims at facilitation of the overall linguistic, intellectual and creative competences of young children regardless of their intellectual and creative predispositions thereby meeting the recommendations of a number of governmental policies. It is designed for both migrants who speak their native language and attempt to acquire the language of the migration country and autochthones who want to acquire a foreign language simultaneously with their mother tongue. The purpose of the program is to introduce students to a school curriculum in two languages and to foster four defining aspects of creativity, novelty, utility, aesthetics and authenticity. To accomplish this goal, the program utilizes the holistic approach which combines cognitive, personal and environmental factors in education. The presentation discusses the empirical findings for the implementation of the program.

Keywords: bilingualism, creativity, education, autochthones

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Authors: Netanel Stern

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Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have emerged as powerful tools in the field of psychiatry, offering new possibilities for enhancing diagnosis and treatment outcomes. This article explores the utilization of AI algorithms in psychiatry, highlighting their potential to revolutionize patient care. Various AI algorithms, including machine learning, natural language processing (NLP), reinforcement learning, clustering, and Bayesian networks, are discussed in detail. Moreover, ethical considerations and future directions for research and implementation are addressed.

Keywords: AI, software engineering, psychiatry, neuroimaging

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Authors: Pavel Adámek

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This study examines perception of environmental approach in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – the process by which firms integrate environmental concern into business. Based on a review of the literature, the paper synthesizes focus on environmental issues with the reflection in a case study in the Czech Republic. Two themes of corporate environmentalism are discussed – corporate environmental orientation and corporate stances toward environmental concerns. It provides theoretical material on greening organizational culture that is helpful in understanding the response of contemporary business to environmental problems. We integrate theoretical predictions with empirical findings confronted with reality. Scales to measure these themes are tested in a survey of managers in 229 Czech firms. We used the process of in-depth questioning. The research question was derived and answered in the context of the corresponding literature and conducted research. A case study showed us that environmental approach is variety different (depending on the size of the firm) in SMEs sector. The results of the empirical mapping demonstrate Czech company’s approach to environment and define the problem areas and pinpoint the main limitation in the expansion of environmental aspects. We contribute to the debate for recognition of the particular role of environmental issues in business reality.

Keywords: corporate environmentalism, Czech Republic, empirical mapping, environmental performance

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Authors: Jessica Leigh Doyle

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In recent years there has been increasing academic and policy interest in domestic violence (DV) and in the implications of DV for the physical and psychological well-being of those who experience it. Yet, despite this interest, very few detailed empirical explorations of these issues have been conducted to date. Of the detailed empirical work that does exist, most studies have focused narrowly on physical violence and the impact of physical violence on rates of depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and substance use. This has often been to the exclusion of wider experiences of DV in relation to psychological, sexual and financial abuse, and of broader victim self-perceptions of psychological well-being that include self-esteem, social participation and quality of life as core components. This paper contributes towards filling this gap by examining these issues on the basis of comprehensive empirical evidence from the Northern Ireland context. Using qualitative methods, the paper presents the findings from 63 semi-structured interviews with women victims of DV from across Northern Ireland. The findings discuss the varied types of violence (physical, psychological, sexual, and financial) that women experience, how these experiences shape their broad physical and psychological well-being and capacity to live active and fulfilling lives and the processes of recovery from IPV. The implications of these findings for research and policy are then discussed.

Keywords: domestic violence, gender equality, intimate partner violence, violence against women, well-being

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Authors: Ali S. Gargoum

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Graphical modeling plays an important role in providing efficient probability calculations in high dimensional problems (computational efficiency). In this paper, we address one of such problems where we discuss fragmenting puff models and some distributional assumptions concerning models for the instantaneous, emission readings and for the fragmenting process. A graphical representation in terms of a junction tree of the conditional probability breakdown of puffs and puff fragments is proposed.

Keywords: graphical models, influence diagrams, junction trees, Bayesian nets

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Authors: Fawwaz Eniola Fajingbesi, Nur Shahida Midia, Elsheikh M. A. Elsheikh, Siti Hajar Yusoff

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Empirical analysis of lightning related phenomena in real time is extremely dangerous due to the relatively high electric discharge involved. Hence, design and optimization of efficient grounding systems depending on real time empirical methods are impeded. Using numerical methods, the dynamics of complex systems could be modeled hence solved as sets of linear and non-linear systems . In this work, the induced current distribution as lightning strike traverses the soil have been numerically modeled in a 2D axial-symmetry and solved using finite element method (FEM) in COMSOL Multiphysics 5.2 AC/DC module. Stratified and non- stratified electrode system were considered in the solved model and soil conductivity (σ) varied between 10 – 58 mS/m. The result discussed therein were the electric field distribution, current distribution and soil ionization phenomena. It can be concluded that the electric field and current distribution is influenced by the injected electric potential and the non-linearity in soil conductivity. The result from numerical calculation also agrees with previously laboratory scale empirical results.

Keywords: current distribution, grounding systems, lightning discharge, numerical model, soil conductivity, soil ionization

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Authors: Yaser E. Hawas, Md. Didarul Alam

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Rollover crashes are complex events entailing interactions of driver, road, vehicle, and environmental factors. The primary objective of this paper is to present an empirical approach that can be used to characterise the rollover crashes and to identify some of the important factors that may lead to rollovers. Among the studied factors are the vehicle types and the rollover occurrence rate after hitting various barrier types. The carried analysis indicated that 71% of the rollover crashes occurred after impact and the type of rollover initiation is “trip/turn over” (nearly 50%). It was also found that light trucks (LTVs) vehicles are more likely to rollover than the sedan vehicles. Barrier impacts are associated with increased incidence of rollover.

Keywords: empirical, hitting barrier, in-depth crash investigation, rollover, severe crash

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Authors: Maha Mourad, Rania Samir

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This paper seeks to explain the adoption of technological innovations in a business to consumer context. Specifically, the use of web based technology (WEBCT/blackboard) in the delivery of educational material and communication with students at universities in Egypt is the focus of this study. The analysis draws on existing research in a B2C context which highlights the importance of internal organization characteristics, perceived attributes of the innovation as well as consumer based factors as the main drivers of adoption. A distinctive B2C model is developed drawing on Roger’s innovation adoption model, as well as theoretical and empirical foundations in previous innovation adoption literature to study the adoption of technological innovations in higher education in Egypt. The model proposes that the adoption decision is dependent on a combination of perceived attributes of the innovation, inter-organization factors and consumer factors. The model is testified drawing on the results of empirical work in the form of a large survey conducted on students in three different universities in Egypt (one public, one private and one international). In addition to the attributes of the innovation, specific organization factors (such as university resources) as well as consumer factors were identified as likely to have an important influence on the adoption of technological innovations in higher education.

Keywords: innovation, WEBCT, higher education, adoption, Egypt

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Authors: Chloe T. Cohen, Sarah Johnson

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Psychoanalytic literature has traditionally focused on the theoretical explanations of psychological phenomena rather than empirical research to support those ideas. Many clinicians assume a lack of empirical verification of the theories that underpin psychoanalytic treatment disqualifies psychoanalytic psychotherapy as an effective clinical technique. One such theory is Lacan’s ‘Name of the Father’, which extended Freud’s idea of the importance of a successful resolution of the Oedipal problem, situating it even earlier in psychological development. Lacan posited that the Name of the Father construct (establishing psychological structure and preventing psychosis) was best represented in language use, metaphor, and linguistic structure. However, no study to date has empirically examined the Name of the Father construct. The current study attempts to measure Lacan’s ‘Name of the Father’ construct through linguistic structure and metaphor use and to compare it with Freud’s ‘original introject’. We will then investigate whether they relate to adult personality functioning (measured using the Rorschach Inkblot Test). We aim to contribute to the empirical study of psychoanalytic concepts by operationalizing and validating the Name of the Father empirically. We also aim to examine the relationship of the Name of the Father construct to Freud’s concept of the original introject and to adult pathology. We hypothesize that measures of the original introject will mediate the pathway between linguistic indicators of Lacan’s Name of the Father construct and personality functioning.

Keywords: Lacan, Name of the Father, original introject, personality functioning, psychoanalysis

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Authors: Sondos Shaheen

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This paper employs a newly constructed composite indicator of social uprisings (SUCI) to analyze the causes of their occurrence. This empirical study is based on an unbalanced panel of 45 countries over the period of 1982–2007. The paper’s contribution to the literature is distinguishing between the causes of violent and nonviolent uprisings. The analysis shows that that certain variables have a significant impact on both violent and nonviolent uprisings in terms of relative SUCI values, for example, ethnic fractionalization and mountainous terrain. Nevertheless, differences between the causes of violent and nonviolent uprisings can be found. For example, life dissatisfaction is related to nonviolent social uprisings, but when life dissatisfaction is accompanied by democratic dissatisfaction, violent social uprisings are more likely.

Keywords: social uprisings, relative deprivation, dissatisfaction, mobilization, anti-government movements, causes

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Authors: Giuliano Raimondo, Jörg Wangemann, Peer Drechsel

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In systems development involving Fuel Cells generators, it is important to have from an early stage of the project a dynamic model for the electrical behavior of the stack to be shared between involved development parties. It allows independent and early design and tests of fuel cell related power electronic. This paper presents an empirical Fuel Cell system model derived from characterization tests on a real system. Moreover, it is illustrated how the obtained model is used to build and validate a real-time Fuel Cell system emulator which is used for aerospace electrical integration testing activities.

Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, real time emulation, testing

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Authors: Abdul Hakim Chikho

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Most international codes allow the use of an equivalent lateral load method for designing practical buildings to withstand earthquake actions. This method requires calculating an approximation to the fundamental mode period of vibrations of these buildings. Several empirical equations have been suggested to calculate approximations to the fundamental periods of different types of structures. Most of these equations are knowing to provide an only crude approximation to the required fundamental periods and repeating the calculation utilizing a more accurate formula is usually required. In this paper, a new formula to calculate a satisfactory approximation of the fundamental period of a practical building is proposed. This formula takes into account the mass and the stiffness of the building therefore, it is more logical than the conventional empirical equations. In order to verify the accuracy of the proposed formula, several examples have been solved. In these examples, calculating the fundamental mode periods of several farmed buildings utilizing the proposed formula and the conventional empirical equations has been accomplished. Comparing the obtained results with those obtained from a dynamic computer has shown that the proposed formula provides a more accurate estimation of the fundamental periods of practical buildings. Since the proposed method is still simple to use and requires only a minimum computing effort, it is believed to be ideally suited for design purposes.

Keywords: earthquake, fundamental mode period, design, building

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Authors: Amal Jmaii, Damien Rousseliere, Besma Belhadj

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We explore the relationship between internal migration and poverty in Tunisia. We present a methodology combining potential outcomes approach with multiple imputation to highlight the effect of internal migration on poverty states. We find that probability of being poor decreases when leaving the poorest regions (the west areas) to the richer regions (greater Tunis and the east regions).

Keywords: internal migration, potential outcomes approach, poverty dynamics, Tunisia

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Authors: Aravind Mohan Krishnan

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This paper identifies a research gap in the literature on tourism entrepreneurship in Malawi, Africa, and investigates how entrepreneurs from the Malawian tourism sector discover and exploit business opportunities. In particular, the importance of prior experience and business networks in the opportunity development process is debated. Another area of empirical research examined here is the opportunity recognition-venture creation sequence. While Malawi presents fruitful business opportunities, exploiting these opportunities into fully realized business ideas is a real challenge due to the country’s difficult business environment and poor promotional and marketing efforts. The study concludes by calling for further research in Sub-Saharan Africa in order to develop our understanding of entrepreneurship in this (African) context.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, Malawi, opportunities, tourism

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Authors: Fumihiko Isada, Yuriko Isada

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The aim of this research is to clarify the difference by industry segment or product characteristics as regards organisation management for an open innovation to raise R&D performance. In particular, the trait of the pharmaceutical industry is defined in comparison with IT component industry segment. In considering open innovation, both inter-organisational relation and the management in an organisation are important issues. As methodology, a questionnaire was conducted. In conclusion, suitable organisation management according to the difference in industry segment or product characteristics became clear.

Keywords: empirical study, industry segment, open innovation, product-development organisation pattern

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Authors: C. Schneider, M. M. Seizmeir, T. Suchanek, M. Hutter-Mironovova, M. Bdiwi, M. Putz

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In this paper, a suitable measurement setup is presented to conduct force and pressure measurements for transient contact cases at the example of lathe machine tending. Empirical measurements were executed on a selected collaborative robot’s behavior regarding allowable operating speeds under consideration of sensor- and workpiece-specific factors. Comparisons between the theoretic calculations proposed in ISO/TS 15066 and the practical measurement results reveal a basis for future research. With the created database, preliminary risk assessment and economic assessment procedures of collaborative machine tending cells can be facilitated.

Keywords: biomechanical thresholds, collaborative robots, force and pressure measurements, machine tending, transient contact

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Authors: Helena Baffoe

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Context: In the United States, there have been significant advancements in programs aimed at improving the lives of individuals with mental health disorders and substance abuse problems. However, public attitudes and beliefs regarding these issues have not improved correspondingly. This study aims to explore the perceptions and beliefs surrounding mental health disorders and substance abuse in the context of data analytics in the field of social work. Research Aim: The aim of this research is to provide empirical evidence on the beliefs and perceptions regarding mental health disorders and substance abuse. Specifically, the study seeks to answer the question of whether being diagnosed with a mental disorder implies a diagnosis of substance abuse. Additionally, the research aims to analyze the specific roles that social workers can play in addressing individuals with mental disorders. Methodology: This research adopts a data-driven methodology, acquiring comprehensive data from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). A noteworthy causal connection between mental disorders and substance abuse exists, a relationship that current literature tends to overlook critically. To address this gap, we applied logistic regression with an Instrumental Variable approach, effectively mitigating potential endogeneity issues in the analysis in order to ensure robust and unbiased results. This methodology allows for a rigorous examination of the relationship between mental disorders and substance abuse. Empirical Findings: The analysis of the data reveals that depressive, anxiety, and trauma/stressor mental disorders are the most common in the United States. However, the study does not find statistically significant evidence to support the notion that being diagnosed with these mental disorders necessarily implies a diagnosis of substance abuse. This suggests that there is a misconception among the public regarding the relationship between mental health disorders and substance abuse. Theoretical Importance: The research contributes to the existing body of literature by providing empirical evidence to challenge prevailing beliefs and perceptions regarding mental health disorders and substance abuse. By using a novel methodological approach and analyzing new US data, the study sheds light on the cultural and social factors that influence these attitudes.

Keywords: mental health disorder, substance abuse, empirical evidence, logistic regression with IV

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Authors: Shumaila Zeb

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The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.

Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks

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Authors: Yoonjin Lee, Dongwook Hwang, Juhee Park, Woojin Park

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As undesirable sitting posture is known to be a major cause of musculoskeletal disorder of office workers, sitting has attracted attention on occupational health. However, there seems to be no consensus on what are safe and unsafe sitting behaviors. The purpose of this study was to characterize safe and unsafe behaviors based on scientific findings of sitting behavior. Three objectives were as follows; to identify different sitting behaviors measure used in ergonomics studies on safe sitting, for each measure identified, to find available findings or recommendations on safe and unsafe sitting behaviors along with relevant empirical grounds, and to synthesize the findings or recommendations to provide characterizations of safe and unsafe behaviors. A systematic review of electronic databases (Google Scholar, PubMed, Web of Science) was conducted for extensive search of sitting behavior. Key terms included awkward sitting position, sedentary sitting, dynamic sitting, sitting posture, sitting posture, and sitting biomechanics, etc. Each article was systemically abstracted to extract a list of studied sitting behaviors, measures used to study the sitting behavior, and presence of empirical evidence of safety of the sitting behaviors. Finally, characterization of safe and unsafe sitting behavior was conducted based on knowledge with empirical evidence. This characterization is expected to provide useful knowledge for evaluation of sitting behavior and about postures to be measured in development of sensing chair.

Keywords: sitting position, sitting biomechanics, sitting behavior, unsafe sitting

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Authors: Wen-Shai Hung

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This paper examines the factors influencing euthanasia issues in Taiwan. The data used is from the 2015 Survey Research on Attitudes towards the Death Penalty and Related Values in Taiwan, which focused on knowledge, attitudes towards the death penalty, and the concepts of social, political, and law values. The sample ages are from 21 to 94. The method used is probit modelling for examining the influences on euthanasia issues in Taiwan. The main empirical results find that older people, persons with higher educational attainment, those who favour abolition of the death penalty and do not oppose divorce, abortion, same-sex relationships, and putting down homeless’ cats or dogs are more likely to approve of the use of euthanasia to end their lives. In contrast, Mainlanders, people who support the death penalty and favour long-term prison sentences are less likely to support the use of euthanasia.

Keywords: euthanasia, homosexual, death penalty, and probit model

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Authors: Muhammad Shafiq

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In accelerated life testing approaches life time data is obtained under various conditions which are considered more severe than usual condition. Classical techniques are based on obtained precise measurements, and used to model variation among the observations. In fact, there are two types of uncertainty in data: variation among the observations and the fuzziness. Analysis techniques, which do not consider fuzziness and are only based on precise life time observations, lead to pseudo results. This study was aimed to examine the behavior of empirical acceleration functions using fuzzy lifetimes data. The results showed an increased fuzziness in the transformed life times as compare to the input data.

Keywords: acceleration function, accelerated life testing, fuzzy number, non-precise data

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Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

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From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

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Authors: I GD Yudha Partama, A. Kanno, Y. Akamatsu, R. Inui, M. Goto, M. Sekine

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The aerial photogrammetry of shallow water bottoms has the potential to be an efficient high-resolution survey technique for shallow water topography, thanks to the advent of convenient UAV and automatic image processing techniques Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Multi-View Stereo (MVS)). However, it suffers from the systematic overestimation of the bottom elevation, due to the light refraction at the air-water interface. In this study, we present an empirical method to correct for the effect of refraction after the usual SfM-MVS processing, using common software. The presented method utilizes the empirical relation between the measured true depth and the estimated apparent depth to generate an empirical correction factor. Furthermore, this correction factor was utilized to convert the apparent water depth into a refraction-corrected (real-scale) water depth. To examine its effectiveness, we applied the method to two river sites, and compared the RMS errors in the corrected bottom elevations with those obtained by three existing methods. The result shows that the presented method is more effective than the two existing methods: The method without applying correction factor and the method utilizes the refractive index of water (1.34) as correction factor. In comparison with the remaining existing method, which used the additive terms (offset) after calculating correction factor, the presented method performs well in Site 2 and worse in Site 1. However, we found this linear regression method to be unstable when the training data used for calibration are limited. It also suffers from a large negative bias in the correction factor when the apparent water depth estimated is affected by noise, according to our numerical experiment. Overall, the good accuracy of refraction correction method depends on various factors such as the locations, image acquisition, and GPS measurement conditions. The most effective method can be selected by using statistical selection (e.g. leave-one-out cross validation).

Keywords: bottom elevation, MVS, river, SfM

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