Search results for: electrical state prediction

Authors: Sunday Ofum Ogon

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The 1648 Westphalia Conference in Europe ushered in the state as the only legal entity with powers to engage in interstate relations on matters that bothers on the development need of her citizens. This epochal entry of the state reshaped global relations with the curtailment of the powers of individual and groups in external relations as the state became the only entity that acted on behalf of any individual or non-state actors like NGOs residing within the parameters of such a country. Thus, the paper interrogated the extent at which the state determines her Politico-Economic relations with regards to development and growth within the state. To achieve these objectives, the paper relied on documentary evidences wherein the qualitative descriptive method was used for data collection and analysis. The paper exploited the facilities of the Rentier State theory as a guide to the study. It was revealed at the end of the study that the 21st century global economic relations is largely determine by international organizations as exemplified by the World Bank and the International Monitory Fund (IMF) where their activities in the continent has undermined state sovereignty. Hence the paper recommended amongst others that states should look inward for development strategies rather than relying on handout from supra-national organizations which has infringe on their sovereignty.

Keywords: State , Global , Rentier state, Twenty-First Century

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Authors: Alessandro Andre Leme

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To analyze three Brazilian think tanks: a) Fernando Henrique Foundation; b) Celso Furtado International Center; c) Millennium Institute and how they dispute interpretations about the type of development and State that should be adopted in Brazil. We will make use of Network and content analysis of the sites. The analyzes show a dispute that goes from a defense of ultraliberalism to developmentalism, going through a hybrid between State and Market voiced in each of the Think Tanks.

Keywords: sociopolitical and economic thinking, development, strategies, intellectuals, state

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Authors: D. Mohammadzadeh S., J. Bolouri Bazaz

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This paper presents a new prediction model for compression index of fine-grained soils using multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) technique. The proposed model relates the soil compression index to its liquid limit, plastic limit and void ratio. Several laboratory test results for fine-grained were used to develop the models. Various criteria were considered to check the validity of the model. The parametric and sensitivity analyses were performed and discussed. The MGGP method was found to be very effective for predicting the soil compression index. A comparative study was further performed to prove the superiority of the MGGP model to the existing soft computing and traditional empirical equations.

Keywords: new prediction model, compression index soil, multi-gene genetic programming, MGGP

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Authors: Nilubon Kurubanjerdjit, Nattakarn Iam-On, Ka-Lok Ng

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNA found in many different species. They play crucial roles in cancer such as biological processes of apoptosis and proliferation. The identification of microRNA-target genes can be an essential first step towards to reveal the role of microRNA in various cancer types. In this paper, we predict miRNA-target genes for lung cancer by integrating prediction scores from miRanda and PITA algorithms used as a feature vector of miRNA-target interaction. Then, machine-learning algorithms were implemented for making a final prediction. The approach developed in this study should be of value for future studies into understanding the role of miRNAs in molecular mechanisms enabling lung cancer formation.

Keywords: microRNA, miRNAs, lung cancer, machine learning, Naïve Bayes, SVM

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Authors: Dong Wu, Michael Grenn

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Managing software projects effectively is crucial for meeting deadlines, ensuring quality, and managing resources well. Traditional methods often struggle with predicting project timelines accurately due to uncertain schedules and complex data. This study addresses these challenges by combining time prediction algorithms with Large Language Models (LLMs). It makes use of real-world software project data to construct and validate a model. The model takes detailed project progress data such as task completion dynamic, team Interaction and development metrics as its input and outputs predictions of project timelines. To evaluate the effectiveness of this model, a comprehensive methodology is employed, involving simulations and practical applications in a variety of real-world software project scenarios. This multifaceted evaluation strategy is designed to validate the model's significant role in enhancing forecast accuracy and elevating overall management efficiency, particularly in complex software project environments. The results indicate that the integration of time prediction algorithms with LLMs has the potential to optimize software project progress management. These quantitative results suggest the effectiveness of the method in practical applications. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that integrating time prediction algorithms with LLMs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of software project management. This offers an advanced project management tool for the industry, with the potential to improve operational efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and ensure timely project completion.

Keywords: software project management, time prediction algorithms, large language models (LLMS), forecast accuracy, project progress prediction

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Authors: O. P. Oladipo, O. A. Falode

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The determination of Recovery Factor is of great importance to the reservoir engineer since it relates reserves to the initial oil in place. Reserves are the producible portion of reservoirs and give an indication of the profitability of a field Development. The core objective of this project is to develop an artificial neural network model using selected reservoir data to predict Recovery Factors (RF) of hydrocarbon reservoirs and compare the model with a couple of the existing correlations. The type of Artificial Neural Network model developed was the Single Layer Feed Forward Network. MATLAB was used as the network simulator and the network was trained using the supervised learning method, Afterwards, the network was tested with input data never seen by the network. The results of the predicted values of the recovery factors of the Artificial Neural Network Model, API Correlation for water drive reservoirs (Sands and Sandstones) and Guthrie and Greenberger Correlation Equation were obtained and compared. It was noted that the coefficient of correlation of the Artificial Neural Network Model was higher than the coefficient of correlations of the other two correlation equations, thus making it a more accurate prediction tool. The Artificial Neural Network, because of its accurate prediction ability is helpful in the correct prediction of hydrocarbon reservoir factors. Artificial Neural Network could be applied in the prediction of other Petroleum Engineering parameters because it is able to recognise complex patterns of data set and establish a relationship between them.

Keywords: recovery factor, reservoir, reserves, artificial neural network, hydrocarbon, MATLAB, API, Guthrie, Greenberger

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Authors: Majid Vafaeipour, Mohamed El Baghdadi, Florian Verbelen, Peter Sergeant, Joeri Van Mierlo, Kurt Stockman, Omar Hegazy

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The Electrical Variable Transmission (EVT), an electromechanical device, can be considered as an alternative solution to the conventional transmission system utilized in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). This study present comparisons in terms of fuel consumption, power split, and state of charge (SoC) of an HEV containing an EVT to a conventional parallel topology and a series topology. To this end, corresponding simulations of these topologies are all performed in presence of control strategies enabling battery charge-sustaining and efficient power split. The power flow through the components of the vehicle are attained, and fuel consumption results of the considered cases are compared. The investigation of the results indicates utilizing EVT can provide significant added values in HEV configurations. The outcome of the current research paves its path for implementation of design optimization approaches on such systems in further research directions.

Keywords: Electrical Variable Transmission (EVT), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), parallel, series, modeling

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Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

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As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines．For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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Authors: Yenni Kurniawati

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Students Prediction Skill in chemistry experiments is an important skill for pre-service chemistry students to stimulate students reflective thinking at each stage of many chemistry experiments, qualitatively and quantitatively. A Virtual Chemistry Laboratory was designed to give students opportunities and times to practicing many kinds of chemistry experiments repeatedly, everywhere and anytime, before they do a real experiment. The Virtual Chemistry Laboratory content was constructed using the Model of Educational Reconstruction and developed to enhance students ability to predicted the experiment results and analyzed the cause of error, calculating the accuracy and precision with carefully in using chemicals. This research showed students changing in making a decision and extremely beware with accuracy, but still had a low concern in precision. It enhancing students level of reflective thinking skill related to their prediction skill 1 until 2 stage in average. Most of them could predict the characteristics of the product in experiment, and even the result will going to be an error. In addition, they take experiments more seriously and curiously about the experiment results. This study recommends for a different subject matter to provide more opportunities for students to learn about other kinds of chemistry experiments design.

Keywords: virtual chemistry laboratory, chemistry experiments, prediction skill, pre-lab experiences

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Authors: Mina Jafari, Kobra Hamraee, Saied Hossein Hosseini

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The prediction of breast cancer disease is one of the challenges in medicine. In this paper we collected 528 records of women’s information who live in Kabul including demographic, life style, diet and pregnancy data. There are many classification algorithm in breast cancer prediction and tried to find the best model with most accurate result and lowest error rate. We evaluated some other common supervised algorithms in data mining to find the best model in prediction of breast cancer disease among afghan women living in Kabul regarding to momography result as target variable. For evaluating these algorithms we used Cross Validation which is an assured method for measuring the performance of models. After comparing error rate and accuracy of three models: Decision Tree, Naive Bays and Rule Induction, Decision Tree with accuracy of 94.06% and error rate of %15 is found the best model to predicting breast cancer disease based on the health care records.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer, probability, data mining

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Authors: Pawel Twardowski, Maciej Tabaszewski, Jakub Czyżycki

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The main goal of the work was to use machine learning to predict cutting-edge wear. The research was carried out while milling hardened steel with sintered carbide cutters at various cutting speeds. During the tests, cutting-edge wear was measured, and vibration acceleration signals were also measured. Appropriate measures were determined from the vibration signals and served as input data in the machine-learning process. Two approaches were used in this work. The first one involved a two-state classification of the cutting edge - suitable and unfit for further work. In the second approach, prediction of the cutting-edge state based on vibration signals was used. The obtained research results show that the appropriate use of machine learning algorithms gives excellent results related to monitoring cutting edge during the process.

Keywords: milling of hardened steel, tool wear, vibrations, machine learning

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Authors: Dong Zhao

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Abstract—Extensive research on obtaining applicable room temperature superconductors meets the major barrier, and the record Tc of 135 K achieved via cuprate has been idling for decades. Even though, the accomplishment of higher Tc than the cuprate was made through pressurizing certain compounds composed of light elements, such as for the LaH10 and for the metallic hydrogen. Room temperature superconductivity under ambient pressure is still the preferred approach and is believed to be the ultimate solution for many applications. While racing to find the breakthrough method to achieve this room temperature Tc milestone in superconducting research, a report stated a discovery of a possible high-temperature superconductor, i.e., the thorium sulfide ThS. Apparently, ThS’s Tc can be at room temperature or even higher. This is because ThS revealed an unusual property of the ‘coexistence of high electrical conductivity and diamagnetism’. Noticed that this property of coexistence of high electrical conductivity and diamagnetism is in line with superconductors, meaning ThS is also at its superconducting state. Surprisingly, ThS owns the property of superconductivity at least at room temperature and under atmosphere pressure. Further study of the ThS’s electrical and magnetic properties in comparison with thorium di-iodide ThI2 concluded its molecular configuration as [Th4+(e-)2]S. This means the ThS’s cation is composed of a [Th4+(e-)2]2+ cation core. It is noticed that this cation core is built by an oxidation state +4 of thorium atom plus an electron pair on this thorium atom that resulted in an oxidation state +2 of this [Th4+(e-)2]2+ cation core. This special construction of [Th4+(e-)2]2+ cation core may lead to the ThS’s room temperature superconductivity because of this characteristic electron lone pair residing on the thorium atom. Since the study of thorium chemistry was carried out in the period of before 1970s. the exploration about ThS’s possible room temperature superconductivity would require resynthesizing ThS. This re-preparation of ThS will provide the sample and enable professionals to verify the ThS’s room temperature superconductivity. Regrettably, the current regulation prevents almost everyone from getting access to thorium metal or thorium compounds due to the radioactive nature of thorium-232 (Th-232), even though the radioactive level of Th-232 is extremely low with its half-life of 14.05 billion years. Consequently, further confirmation of ThS’s high-temperature superconductivity through experiments will be impossible unless the use of corresponding thorium metal and related thorium compounds can be deregulated. This deregulation would allow researchers to obtain the necessary starting materials for the study of ThS. Hopefully, the confirmation of ThS’s room temperature superconductivity can not only establish a method to obtain applicable superconductors but also to pave the way for fully understanding the mechanism of superconductivity.

Keywords: co-existence of high electrical conductivity and diamagnetism, electron pairing and electron lone pair, room temperature superconductivity, the special molecular configuration of thorium sulfide ThS

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Authors: Sandor Levai, Valentin Juhasz, Miklos Gasz

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Rising damp is an extremely complex phenomenon that is of great practical interest to the field of building conservation due to the irreversible damages it can make to old and historic structures. The electrical effects occurring in damp masonry have been scarcely researched and are a largely unknown aspect of rising damp. Present paper describes the typical electrical patterns occurring in porous brickwork during a wetting and drying cycle. It has been found that in contrast with dry masonry, where electrical phenomena are virtually non-existent, damp masonry exhibits a wide array of electrical effects. Long-term real-time measurements performed in the lab on small-scale brick structures, using an array of embedded micro-sensors, revealed significant voltage, current, capacitance and resistance variations which can be linked to the movement of moisture inside porous materials. The same measurements performed on actual old buildings revealed a similar behaviour, the electrical effects being more significant in areas of the brickwork affected by rising damp. Understanding these electrical phenomena contributes to a better understanding of the driving mechanisms of rising damp, potentially opening new avenues of dealing with it in a less invasive manner.

Keywords: brick masonry, electrical phenomena in damp brickwork, porous building materials, rising damp, spontaneous electrical potential, wetting-drying cycle

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Authors: Jia-Shiun Chen, Quoc-Viet Huynh

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This work develops a flexible-body dynamic model of an all-terrain vehicle (ATV), capable of recovering dynamic stresses while the ATV travels on random bumpy roads. The fatigue life of components is forecasted as well. While considering the interaction between dynamic forces and structure deformation, the proposed model achieves a highly accurate structure stress prediction and fatigue life prediction. During the simulation, stress time history of the ATV structure is retrieved for life prediction. Finally, the hot sports of the ATV frame are located, and the frame life for combined road conditions is forecasted, i.e. 25833.6 hr. If the usage of vehicle is eight hours daily, the total vehicle frame life is 8.847 years. Moreover, the reaction force and deformation due to the dynamic motion can be described more accurately by using flexible body dynamics than by using rigid-body dynamics. Based on recommendations made in the product design stage before mass production, the proposed model can significantly lower development and testing costs.

Keywords: flexible-body dynamics, veicle, dynamics, fatigue, durability

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Authors: Mohadeseh Seyednezhad, Armin Rajabi, Andanastui Muchtar, Mahendra Rao Somalu

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This work investigates the electrical properties of NiO-SDC/SDC anode sintered at about 1200 ○C for 1h through a relatively new approach, namely the microwave method. Nano powders Sm0.2Ce0.8O1.9 (SDC) and NiO were mixed by using a high-energy ball-mill and subsequent co-pressed at three different compaction pressures 200, 300 and 400 MPa. The novelty of this study consists in the effect of compaction pressure on the electrochemical performance of Ni-SDC/SDC anode, with no binder used between layers. The electrical behavior of the prepared anode has been studied by electrochemical impedance spectra (EIS) in controlled atmospheres, operating at high temperatures (600-800 °C).

Keywords: sintering, fuel cell, electrical conductivity, nanostructures, impedance spectroscopy, ceramics

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Authors: Abdeljalil Metioui

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The purpose of this article is to present the results of two-stage qualitative research. The first involved the identification of the alternative conceptions of 80 elementary pre-service teachers from Quebec in Canada about the operation of simple electrical circuits. To do this, they completed a two-choice questionnaire (true or false) with justification. Data analysis identifies many conceptual difficulties. For example, for their majority, whatever the electrical device that composes an electrical circuit, the current source (power supply), and the generated electrical power is constant. The second step was to develop a double multiple-choice questionnaire based on the identified designs. It allows teachers to quickly diagnose their students' conceptions and take them into account in their teaching.

Keywords: development, electrical circuits, two-tier diagnostic test, secondary and high school

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Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali, Noramli Abdul Razak

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Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of prediction models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this study, 110 crude palm oil (CPO) samples were used to build a free fatty acid (FFA) prediction model. 60% of the collected data were used for training purposes and the remaining 40% used for testing. The visible peaks on the NIR spectrum were at 1725 nm and 1760 nm, indicating the existence of the first overtone of C-H bands. Principal component regression (PCR) was applied to the data in order to build this mathematical prediction model. The optimal number of principal components was 10. The results showed R2=0.7147 for the training set and R2=0.6404 for the testing set.

Keywords: palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, regression

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Authors: D. I. George Amalarethinam, A. Emima

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Educational Data Mining (EDM) is one of the newest topics to emerge in recent years, and it is concerned with developing methods for analyzing various types of data gathered from the educational circle. EDM methods and techniques with machine learning algorithms are used to extract meaningful and usable information from huge databases. For scientists and researchers, realistic applications of Machine Learning in the EDM sectors offer new frontiers and present new problems. One of the most important research areas in EDM is predicting student success. The prediction algorithms and techniques must be developed to forecast students' performance, which aids the tutor, institution to boost the level of student’s performance. This paper examines various classification techniques in prediction methods and data mining tools used in EDM.

Keywords: classification technique, data mining, EDM methods, prediction methods

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Authors: Wataru Nakamura, Tomoaki Hashimoto, Liang-Kuang Chen

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This paper provides a state estimation method for automatic control systems of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. A nonlinear tire model is employed to represent the realistic behavior of a vehicle. In general, all the state variables of control systems are not precisedly known, because those variables are observed through output sensors and limited parts of them might be only measurable. Hence, automatic control systems must incorporate some type of state estimation. It is needed to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear vehicle dynamics with restricted measurable state variables. For this purpose, unscented Kalman filter method is applied in this study for estimating the state variables of nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The objective of this paper is to propose a state estimation method using unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear vehicle dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: state estimation, control systems, observer systems, nonlinear systems

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Authors: Osung Im, Neha Yadav, Eui Hoon Lee, Joong Hoon Kim

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach is commonly used in lots of fields for forecasting. In water resources engineering, forecast of water level or inflow of reservoir is useful for various kind of purposes. Due to advantages of ANN, many papers were written for inflow prediction in river networks, but in this study, ANN is used in urban sewer networks. The growth of severe rain storm in Korea has increased flood damage severely, and the precipitation distribution is getting more erratic. Therefore, effective pump operation in pump station is an essential task for the reduction in urban area. If real time inflow of pump station reservoir can be predicted, it is possible to operate pump effectively for reducing the flood damage. This study used ANN model for pump station reservoir inflow prediction using upstream sewer depth data. For this study, rainfall events, sewer depth, and inflow into Banpo pump station reservoir between years of 2013-2014 were considered. Feed – Forward Back Propagation (FFBF), Cascade – Forward Back Propagation (CFBP), Elman Back Propagation (EBP) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) were used as ANN model for prediction. A comparison of results with ANN model suggests that ANN is a powerful tool for inflow prediction using the sewer depth data.

Keywords: artificial neural network, forecasting, reservoir inflow, sewer depth

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Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

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The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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Authors: Ayat E. Ali, Christeen R. Aziz, Merna A. Helmy, Mohammed M. Malek, Sherif H. El-Gohary

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Goal: Purpose of the project was to make a plastic surgery prediction by using pre-operative images for the plastic surgeries’ patients and to show this prediction on a screen to compare between the current case and the appearance after the surgery. Methods: To this aim, we implemented a software which used data from the internet for facial skin diseases, skin burns, pre-and post-images for plastic surgeries then the post- surgical prediction is done by using K-nearest neighbor (KNN). So we designed and fabricated a smart mirror divided into two parts a screen and a reflective mirror so patient's pre- and post-appearance will be showed at the same time. Results: We worked on some skin diseases like vitiligo, skin burns and wrinkles. We classified the three degrees of burns using KNN classifier with accuracy 60%. We also succeeded in segmenting the area of vitiligo. Our future work will include working on more skin diseases, classify them and give a prediction for the look after the surgery. Also we will go deeper into facial deformities and plastic surgeries like nose reshaping and face slim down. Conclusion: Our project will give a prediction relates strongly to the real look after surgery and decrease different diagnoses among doctors. Significance: The mirror may have broad societal appeal as it will make the distance between patient's satisfaction and the medical standards smaller.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbor (knn), face detection, vitiligo, bone deformity

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model

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Authors: Angeliki Peponi, Paulo Morgado, Jorge Trindade

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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are applied as a robust tool for modeling and forecasting the erosion changes in Costa Caparica, Lisbon, Portugal, for 2021. ANNs present noteworthy advantages compared with other methods used for prediction and decision making in urban coastal areas. Multilayer perceptron type of ANNs was used. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on natural and social forces and dynamic relations in the dune-beach system of the study area. Variations in network’s parameters were performed in order to select the optimum topology of the network. The developed methodology appears fitted to reality; however further steps would make it better suited.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, backpropagation, coastal urban zones, erosion prediction

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Authors: Jitendra Kumar Quamara, Sohan Lal, Pushkar Raj

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Electrical conduction behavior of liquid crystalline polyurethane (LCPU) has been investigated under transient conditions in the operating temperature range 50-220°C at various electric fields of 4.35-43.45 kV/cm. The transient currents show the hyperbolic decay character and the decay exponent ∆t (one tenth decay time) dependent on field as well as on temperature. The increase in I0/Is values (where I0 represents the current observed immediately after applying the voltage and Is represents the steady state current) and the variation of mobility at high operating temperatures shows the appearance of mesophase. The origin of transient currents has been attributed to the dipolar nature of carbonyl (C＝O) groups in the main chain of LCPU and the trapping charge carriers.

Keywords: electrical conduction, transient current, liquid crystalline polymers, mesophase

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Authors: M. Barański

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This paper presents a several diagnostic methods designed to electrical machines especially for permanent magnets (PM) machines. Those machines are commonly used in small wind and water systems and vehicles drives. Those methods are preferred by the author in periodic diagnostic of electrical machines. The special attention should be paid to diagnostic method of turn-to-turn insulation and vibrations. Both of those methods were created in Institute of Electrical Drives and Machines Komel. The vibration diagnostic method is the main thesis of author’s doctoral dissertation. This is method of determination the technical condition of PM electrical machine basing on its own signals is the subject of patent application No P.405669. Specific structural properties of machines excited by permanent magnets are used in this method - electromotive force (EMF) generated due to vibrations. There was analysed number of publications which describe vibration diagnostic methods and tests of electrical machines with permanent magnets and there was no method found to determine the technical condition of such machine basing on their own signals.

Keywords: electrical vehicle, generator, main insulation, permanent magnet, thermography, turn-to-traction drive, turn insulation, vibrations

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Authors: Sumit Sen, Sohan Khedekar, Umang Shinde, Shivam Bhargava

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This study has been undertaken to investigate whether the deep learning models are able to predict the future stock prices by training the model with the historical stock price data. Since this work required time series analysis, various models are present today to perform time series analysis such as Recurrent Neural Network LSTM, ARIMA and Facebook Prophet. Applying these models the movement of stock price of stocks are predicted and also tried to provide the future prediction of the stock price of a stock. Final product will be a stock price prediction web application that is developed for providing the user the ease of analysis of the stocks and will also provide the predicted stock price for the next seven days.

Keywords: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Deep Learning, Long Short Term Memory, Time-series

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Authors: Chandra Mukherjee

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The prevalent knowledge of the biological systems is based on the standard scientific perception of natural equilibrium, determination and predictability. Recently, a rethinking of concepts was presented and a new scientific perspective emerged that involves complexity theory with deterministic chaos theory, nonlinear dynamics and theory of fractals. The unpredictability of the chaotic processes probably would change our understanding of diseases and their management. The mathematical definition of chaos is defined by deterministic behavior with irregular patterns that obey mathematical equations which are critically dependent on initial conditions. The chaos theory is the branch of sciences with an interest in nonlinear dynamics, fractals, bifurcations, periodic oscillations and complexity. Recently, the biomedical interest for this scientific field made these mathematical concepts available to medical researchers and practitioners. Any biological network system is considered to have a nominal state, which is recognized as a homeostatic state. In reality, the different physiological systems are not under normal conditions in a stable state of homeostatic balance, but they are in a dynamically stable state with a chaotic behavior and complexity. Biological systems like heart rhythm and brain electrical activity are dynamical systems that can be classified as chaotic systems with sensitive dependence on initial conditions. In biological systems, the state of a disease is characterized by a loss of the complexity and chaotic behavior, and by the presence of pathological periodicity and regulatory behavior. The failure or the collapse of nonlinear dynamics is an indication of disease rather than a characteristic of health.

Keywords: HRV, HRVI, LF, HF, DII

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Authors: Salman Mohamadi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Tayaranian Hosseini, Hamidreza Amindavar

Abstract:

In this paper, we provide a procedure to analyze and model EEG (electroencephalogram) signal as a time series using ARIMA-GARCH to predict an epileptic attack. The heteroskedasticity of EEG signal is examined through the ARCH or GARCH, (Autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) test. The best ARIMA-GARCH model in AIC sense is utilized to measure the volatility of the EEG from epileptic canine subjects, to forecast the future values of EEG. ARIMA-only model can perform prediction, but the ARCH or GARCH model acting on the residuals of ARIMA attains a con- siderable improved forecast horizon. First, we estimate the best ARIMA model, then different orders of ARCH and GARCH modelings are surveyed to determine the best heteroskedastic model of the residuals of the mentioned ARIMA. Using the simulated conditional variance of selected ARCH or GARCH model, we suggest the procedure to predict the oncoming seizures. The results indicate that GARCH modeling determines the dynamic changes of variance well before the onset of seizure. It can be inferred that the prediction capability comes from the ability of the combined ARIMA-GARCH modeling to cover the heteroskedastic nature of EEG signal changes.

Keywords: epileptic seizure prediction , ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH modeling, heteroskedasticity, EEG

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Anosh Arshad Sundhu, Francesco Giordano, Giacomo Della Croce, Maurizio Arnone

Abstract:

Digital Twin (DT) is a technology that generates a virtual representation of a physical system or process, enabling real-time monitoring, analysis, and simulation. DT of an Electrical Distribution System (EDS) can perform online analysis by integrating the static and real-time data in order to show the current grid status and predictions about the future status to the Distribution System Operator (DSO), producers and consumers. DT technology for EDS also offers the opportunity to DSO to test hypothetical scenarios. This paper discusses the development of a DT of an EDS by Smart Grid Controller (SGC) application, which is developed using open-source libraries and languages. The developed application can be integrated with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) of any EDS for creating the DT. The paper shows the performance of developed tools inside the application, tested on real EDS for grid observability, Smart Recursive Load Flow (SRLF) calculation and state estimation of loads in MV feeders.

Keywords: digital twin, distributed energy resources, remote terminal units, supervisory control and data acquisition system, smart recursive load flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 73