Search results for: duration estimates

Authors: Samet Aktaş, Nurtekin Erkmen, Faruk Guven, Halil Taskin

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This study aimed to determine the effects of 3 versus 3 small-sided games (SSG) with different recovery times on soma physiological parameters in soccer players. Twelve soccer players from Regional Amateur League volunteered for this study (mean±SD age, 20.50±2.43 years; height, 177.73±4.13 cm; weight, 70.83±8.38 kg). Subjects were performing soccer training for five days per week. The protocol of the study was approved by the local ethic committee in School of Physical Education and Sport, Selcuk University. The subjects were divided into teams with 3 players according to Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test. The field dimension was 26 m wide and 34 m in length. Subjects performed two times in a random order a series of 3 bouts of 3-a-side SSGs with 3 min and 5 min recovery durations. In SSGs, each set were performed with 6 min duration. The percent of maximal heart rate (% HRmax), blood lactate concentration (LA) and Rated Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale points were collected before the SSGs and at the end of each set. Data were analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures. Significant differences were found between %HRmax in before SSG and 1st set, 2nd set, and 3rd set in both SSG with 3 min recovery duration and SSG with 5 min recovery duration (p<0.05). Means of %HRmax in SSG with 3 min recovery duration at both 1st and 2nd sets were significantly higher than SSG with 5 min recovery duration (p<0.05). No significant difference was found between sets of either SSGs in terms of LA (p>0.05). LA in SSG with 3 min recovery duration was higher than SSG with 5 min recovery duration at 2nd sets (p<0.05). RPE in soccer players was not different between SSGs (p>0.05).In conclusion, this study demonstrates that exercise intensity in SSG with 3 min recovery durations is higher than SSG with 5 min recovery durations.

Keywords: small-sided games, soccer, heart rate, lactate

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Authors: Junaid Mahmood Alam, Howarh Humaira Ali, Ishrat Sultana

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Long term irregularity in the glycemic state, especially in Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients, depicted by higher levels of HbA1c, is noted to be correlated with the development of microalbuminuria. The aim of the current study is to investigate the association of urinary microalbumin with HbA1c and with duration of diabetes mellitus in selected male and female T2DM patients. This cross-sectional study was carried out in a total of 70 patients, thirty-five each male and females with diagnosed T2DM, within the age group of 35-60 years. Biochemical parameters of urea, creatinine, urinary microalbumin, HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and post- parendial blood glucose were determined by standard methods. Data was statistically examined by student’s t-test and Pearson’s correlation. Results showed that comparison of healthy control subjects with both male and female T2DM patients depicted significantly elevated levels of all parameters in (P < 0.05 to P < 0.001). Comparison of duration of T2DM with the existence of urinary microalbumin was moderately significant (P < 0.05) when duration was less than 4 years, significant (P < 0.01) with duration of 4-6 years and markedly significant (P < 0.001) with duration of more than 6 years. It is concluded that in male and female T2DM patients, duration of DM as well as poor glycemic control, depicted by higher levels of HbA1c is significantly correlated with elevated levels of urinary microalbumin.

Keywords: type 2 diabetes mellitus, glycosylated hemoglobin, urinary microalbumin, T2DM, HbA1c

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Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, B. Vikram, G. C. S. Reddy

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Time and cost are the two critical objectives of construction project management and are not independent but intricately related. Trade-off between project duration and cost are extensively discussed during project scheduling because of practical relevance. Generally when the project duration is compressed, the project calls for an increase in labor and more productive equipments, which increases the cost. Thus, the construction time-cost optimization is defined as a process to identify suitable construction activities for speeding up to attain the best possible savings in both time and cost. As there is hidden tradeoff relationship between project time and cost, it might be difficult to predict whether the total cost would increase or decrease as a result of compressing the schedule. Different combinations of duration and cost for the activities associated with the project determine the best set in the time-cost optimization. Therefore, the contractors need to select the best combination of time and cost to perform each activity, all of which will ultimately determine the project duration and cost. In this paper, the fuzzy set theory is used to model the uncertainties in the project environment for time-cost trade off analysis.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, uncertainty, qualitative factors, decision making

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Authors: Manisha Mukherjee, Diptarka Saha

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Reliable forecasts of univariate time series data are often necessary for several contexts. ARIMA models are quite popular among practitioners in this regard. Hence, choosing correct parameter values for ARIMA is a challenging yet imperative task. Thus, a stepwise algorithm is introduced to provide automatic and robust estimates for parameters (p; d; q)(P; D; Q) used in seasonal ARIMA models. This process is focused on improvising the overall quality of the estimates, and it alleviates the problems induced due to the unidimensional nature of the methods that are currently used such as auto.arima. The fast and automated search of parameter space also ensures reliable estimates of the parameters that possess several desirable qualities, consequently, resulting in higher test accuracy especially in the cases of noisy data. After vigorous testing on real as well as simulated data, the algorithm doesn’t only perform better than current state-of-the-art methods, it also completely obviates the need for human intervention due to its automated nature.

Keywords: time series, ARIMA, auto.arima, ARIMA parameters, forecast, R function

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Dmitry V. Egorov

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The practical efficient approach is suggested for estimation of the seismoacoustic sources energy in C-OTDR monitoring systems. This approach represents the sequential plan for confidence estimation both the seismoacoustic sources energy, as well the absorption coefficient of the soil. The sequential plan delivers the non-asymptotic guaranteed accuracy of obtained estimates in the form of non-asymptotic confidence regions with prescribed sizes. These confidence regions are valid for a finite sample size when the distributions of the observations are unknown. Thus, suggested estimates are non-asymptotic and nonparametric, and also these estimates guarantee the prescribed estimation accuracy in the form of the prior prescribed size of confidence regions, and prescribed confidence coefficient value.

Keywords: nonparametric estimation, sequential confidence estimation, multichannel monitoring systems, C-OTDR-system, non-lineary regression

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Authors: Payman A. A. Zibari, Mosleh M. S. Duhoky

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These experiments were conducted at Tissue Culture Laboratory/ Faculty of Agriculture / University of Duhok during the period from January 2011 to May 2013. The objectives of this study were to study the effects of interaction between colchcine concentrations and treatment time duration of Creps capilaris (with and without 2B chromosome) on chromosome polyploidy during fifteen passages until regeneration of plants from the callus. Data showed that high percentage of chromosome polyploidy approximately can be obtained from high concentration of colchicin and long time of duration.

Keywords: polyploidy, Crepis capilaris, colchicine, B chromosome

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Authors: Tauha Hussain Ali, Shabir Hussain Khahro, Nafees Ahmed Memon

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Accurate prediction of project time for planning and bid preparation stage should contain realistic dates. Constructors use their experience to estimate the project duration for the new projects, which is based on intuitions. It has been a constant concern to both researchers and constructors to analyze the accurate prediction of project duration for bid preparation stage. In Pakistan, such study for time cost relationship has been lacked to predict duration performance for the construction projects. This study is an attempt to explore the time cost relationship that would conclude with a mathematical model to predict the time for the drainage rehabilitation projects in the province of Sindh, Pakistan. The data has been collected from National Engineering Services (NESPAK), Pakistan and regression analysis has been carried out for the analysis of results. Significant relationship has been found between time and cost of the construction projects in Sindh and the generated mathematical model can be used by the constructors to predict the project duration for the upcoming projects of same nature. This study also provides the professionals with a requisite knowledge to make decisions regarding project duration, which is significantly important to win the projects at the bid stage.

Keywords: BTC Model, project time, relationship of time cost, regression

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Authors: Mohammad Hossain Validad, Maryam Nakhaei-Moghadam, Monire Mahjoob

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Introduction: The prevalence of type 1 diabetes is increasing worldwide, and given the role of ethnicity and race in complications of diabetes, this study was designed to evaluate the ocular complications of type 1 diabetes mellitus in Zahedan. Methods: This prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on Type 1 diabetic children that referred to Alzahra Eye Hospital. All patients had a dilated binocular indirect ophthalmoscopy using a +90 D condensing lens and slit-lamp biomicroscopy. Age, gender, onset, duration of diabetes, and HbA1c level were recorded. Results: 76 type 1 diabetes patients with an age of 11.93 ± 3.76 years participated in this study. Out of 76 patients with diabetes, 19 people (25%) had ocular complications. There was a significant difference in age (P=0.01) and disease duration (P=0.07) between the two groups with and without ocular complications. Odd ratios for ocular complications with age and duration of diabetes were 1.32 and 1.32, respectively. Conclusion: Cataract was the most common ocular complication in type 1 diabetes in Zahedan, a tropical region that was significantly related to the duration of the disease and the age of the patients.

Keywords: diabet mellitus type one, cataract, ocular complication, hemoglobin A1C

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Authors: Ni Luh Putu Harta Wedari

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Background: Clostridium difficile has two main virulence factors, namely TcdA and TcdB. TcdA encoded by the tcdA gene acts as an enterotoxin, pro-inflammatory and fluid accumulation, while TcdB encoded by the tcdB gene is cytotoxic, causes disruption of the actin cytoskeleton, and causes disruption of tight junctions in colon cells. This study aims to explore the relationship between the tcdA and tcdB genes and the duration of diarrhea in elderly patients. Method: This research was an observational analytic with a prospective cross-sectional with samples of elderly diarrhea patients who met the inclusion criteria in Denpasar City health service facilities from 1 December 2022 until 30 June 2023, and then their feces were analyzed using the real-time PCR method. Results: In this study, 40 elderly diarrhea patients met the inclusion criteria and in accordance with the minimum sample size, 28 (70%) men and 12 (30%) women. 5 patients (12.5%) had a history of azithromycin, 4 (10%) levofloxacin, 17 (42.5%) ciprofloxacin, 8 (20%) metronidazole, 1 (2.5%) cefoperazone, 5 (12, 5%) doxycycline. Comorbids, namely 13 (32.5%) type II diabetes mellitus, 4 (10%) chronic kidney disease, 10 (25%) malignancies, 7 (17.5%) urinary tract infections, 3 (7.5%) %) immunocompromised, 2 (5%) cardiac heart failure, and 1 (2.5%) acute on chronic kidney disease. The overall diarrhea duration average was 5 days. 8 samples (20%) were positive for 16s rRNA, and there was no significant difference in diarrhea duration with negative samples (p=0.166). The relationship between the tcdA gene and the duration of diarrhea could not be performed because all samples were negative. Likewise, relationship analysis between the coexistence of tcdA and tcdB could not be performed. There was no significant difference between tcdB positive 3 (7.5%) and negative with diarrhea duration (p=0.739). Conclusion: There is no significant relationship between the presence of the 16s rRNA and tcdB C. difficile genes with the duration of diarrhea in elderly patients.

Keywords: clostridium, difficile, diarrhea, elderly, tcdA, tcdB

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Authors: Maamar Yahiaoui, Abdelrrahmene Kechich, Ismail Elkhallile Bousserhene

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This article presents a study in simulation by means of MATLAB/Simulink software of the nonlinear control in positioning of a linear synchronous machine with the esteemed force of load, to have effective control in the estimator in all tests the wished trajectory follows and the disturbance of load start. The results of simulation prove clearly that the control proposed can detect the reference of positioning the value estimates of load force equal to the actual value.

Keywords: mathematical model, Matlab, PMLSM, control, linearization, estimator, force, load, current

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Authors: Eman Merza, Stephen Pearson, Glen Lichtwark, Peter Malliaras

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The Achilles tendon (AT) exhibits volume changes related to fluid flow under acute load which may be linked to changes in stiffness. Fluid flow provides a mechanical signal for cellular activity and may be one mechanism that facilitates tendon adaptation. This study aimed to investigate whether isometric intervention involving a high level of load duration and intensity could maximize the immediate reduction in AT volume and stiffness compared to interventions involving a lower level of load duration and intensity. Sixteen healthy participants (12 males, 4 females; age= 24.4 ± 9.4 years; body mass= 70.9 ± 16.1 kg; height= 1.7 ± 0.1 m) performed three isometric interventions of varying levels of load duration (2 s and 8 s) and intensity (35% and 75% maximal voluntary isometric contraction) over a 3 week period. Freehand 3D ultrasound was used to measure free AT volume (at rest) and length (at 35%, 55%, and 75% of maximum plantarflexion force) pre- and post-interventions. The slope of the force-elongation curve over these force levels represented individual stiffness (N/mm). Large reductions in free AT volume and stiffness resulted in response to long-duration high-intensity loading whilst less reduction was produced with a lower load intensity. In contrast, no change in free AT volume and a small increase in AT stiffness occurred with lower load duration. These findings suggest that the applied load on the AT must be heavy and sustained for a long duration to maximize immediate volume reduction, which might be an acute response that enables optimal long-term tendon adaptation via mechanotransduction pathways.

Keywords: Achilles tendon, volume, stiffness, free tendon, 3d ultrasound

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Authors: Şefik Surhan Tabakoğlu, Hipolito Fernández-Palacios, Dominique Schuchardt, Mahmut Ali Gökçe, Celal Erbaş, Oğuz Taşbozan

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This study aimed to clarify some sperm quality parameters such as volumetric sperm quantity, motility, motility duration, sperm density, total number of spermatozoa and pH of meagre (Argyrosomus regius ASSO, 1801) individuals kept in farming conditions and caught from wild (las palmas, gran canary). The sperm was collected in glass tubes graded in millimetres and sperm volume registered immediately following collection by abdominal massage. The sperm quality parameters including motility, total number of spermatozoa and spermatozoa density were determined with computer assisted sperm analysis (CASA) program. The duration of spermatozoa movement was assessed using a sensitive chronometer (1/100s) that was started simultaneously with the addition of activation solution into the sample. Sperm pH was measured with standard pH electrodes within five minutes of sampling. At the end of the study, while amount of sperm (5.20±0.33 ml), duration of motility (7.23±0.7 m) and total number of spermatozoa (131.40±12.22 x10^9) were different statistically (p < 0,05), motility (% 81.03±6.59), pH (7.30±0.08), sperm density (25.27±9.42 x10^9/ml) and morphologic parameters were not significantly different between the two groups. According to our results, amount of sperm, duration of motility and total number of spermatozoa were better in farmed group than that of the other group.

Keywords: Seriola rivoliana, meagre, sperm quality, motility, motility duration

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Authors: S. Boonlertnirun, R. Suvannasara, K. Boonlertnirun

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Hypoxia has negative effects on growth and crop yield, its severity is so varied depending on crop growth stages, duration of hypoxia and crop species. The objective was to evaluate the sensitive growth stage and the duration of hypoxia negatively affecting growth and yield of waxy corn. Pot experiment was conducted using a split plot in randomized complete block with 3 growth stages: V3 (3-4 true leaves), V7 (7-8 true leaves), and R1 (silking stage), and three hypoxic durations: 6, 9, and 12 days, in an open–ended outdoor greenhouse during January to March 2013. The results revealed that different growth stages had significantly (p < 0.5) different responses to hypoxia, seeing that the sensitive growth stage affecting plant height, yield and yield components was mostly detected in V7 growth stage whereas leaf greenness and days to silking were sensitive to hypoxia at R1 growth stage. Different hypoxic durations significantly affected the yield and yield components, hypoxic duration of twelve days showed the most negative effect greater than the others. In this present study, it can be concluded that waxy corn plants were waterlogged at V7 growth stage for twelve days had the most negative effect on yield and yield components.

Keywords: hypoxia duration, waxy corn, growth stage, Zea mays L.

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Authors: Subhan Ahmad, Pradeep Bhargava, Ajay Chourasia

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Shear failure in reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement leads to loss of property and life since a very little or no warning occurs before failure as in case of flexural failure. Shear strength of reinforced concrete beams decreases as its depth increases. This phenomenon is generally called as the size effect. In this paper, a comparative analysis is performed to estimate the performance of shear strength models in capturing the size effect of reinforced concrete beams made with conventional concrete, self-compacting concrete, and recycled aggregate concrete. Four shear strength models that account for the size effect in shear are selected from the literature and applied on the datasets of slender reinforced concrete beams. Beams prepared with conventional concrete, self-compacting concrete, and recycled aggregate concrete are considered for the analysis. Results showed that all the four models captured the size effect in shear effectively and produced conservative estimates of the shear strength for beams made with normal strength conventional concrete. These models yielded unconservative estimates for high strength conventional concrete beams with larger effective depths ( > 450 mm). Model of Bazant and Kim (1984) captured the size effect precisely and produced conservative estimates of shear strength of self-compacting concrete beams at all the effective depths. Also, shear strength models considered in this study produced unconservative estimates of shear strength for recycled aggregate concrete beams at all effective depths.

Keywords: reinforced concrete beams; shear strength; prediction models; size effect

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Authors: Tovondahiniriko Fanjirindratovo, Olga Ramiarinjanahary, Paulisimone Rasoavonjy

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The sunshine duration, which is the sum of all the moments when the solar beam radiation is up to a minimal value, is an important parameter for climatology, tourism, agriculture and solar energy. Its measure is usually given by a pyrheliometer installed on a two-axis solar tracker. Due to the high cost of this device and the availability of global radiation on a horizontal surface, on the other hand, several studies have been done to make a correlation between global radiation and sunshine duration. Most of these studies are fitted for the northern hemisphere using a pyrheliometric database. The aim of the present work is to list and assess all the existing methods and apply them to Reunion Island, a tropical region in the southern hemisphere. Using a database of ten years, global, diffuse and beam radiation for a horizontal surface are employed in order to evaluate the uncertainty of existing algorithms for a tropical region. The methodology is based on indirect comparison because the solar beam radiation is not measured but calculated by the beam radiation on a horizontal surface and the sun elevation angle.

Keywords: Carpentras method, data fitting, global radiation, sunshine duration, Slob and Monna algorithm, step algorithm

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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The understanding of housing price dynamics is of importance to a great number of agents: to portfolio investors, banks, real estate brokers and construction companies as well as to policy makers and households. A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models is dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Common Correlated Effects estimator (CCE) of dynamic panel data which also accounts for cross-sectional dependence which is caused by common structures of the economy. In presence of cross-sectional dependence standard OLS gives biased estimates. In this study, U.S housing price dynamics were examined empirically using the dynamic CCE estimator with first-difference of housing price as the dependent and first-differences of per capita income, interest rate, housing stock and lagged price together with deviation of housing prices from their long-run equilibrium level as independents. These deviations were also estimated from the data. The aim of the analysis was to provide estimates with comparisons of estimates between 1980-1999 and 2000-2012. Based on data of 50 U.S cities over 1980-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were mostly significant when two time periods were compared. Significance tests of differences were provided by the model containing interaction terms of independents and time dummy variable. Residual analysis showed very low cross-sectional correlation of the model residuals compared with the standard OLS approach. This means a good fit of CCE estimator model. Estimates of the dynamic panel data model were in line with the theory of housing price dynamics. Results also suggest that dynamics of a housing market is evolving over time.

Keywords: dynamic model, panel data, cross-sectional dependence, interaction model

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Authors: Christos Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Ifigenia Apostolou, Vicky Dradaki, Tamta Sirbilatze, Irini Dri, Christina Kordali, Vaggelis Lambas, Kostas Argyros, Georgios Mavras

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Objectives: Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The purpose of our study was to examine the hypothesis that Mediterranean diet may protect against mortality and reduce admission duration in elderly, hospitalized patients. Methods: Sample population included 150 patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2). The following data were taken into account in analysis: anthropometric and laboratory data, dietary habits (MedDiet score), patients’ nutritional status [Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score], physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaires, IPAQ), smoking status, cause and duration of current admission, medical history (co-morbidities, previous admissions). Primary endpoints were mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of admission, compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Logistic regression and linear regression analysis were performed in order to identify independent predictors for mortality and admission duration difference respectively. Results: According to MNA, nutrition was normal in 54/150 (36%) of patients, 46/150 (30.7%) of them were at risk of malnutrition and the rest 50/150 (33.3%) were malnourished. After performing multivariate logistic regression analysis we found that the odds of death decreased 30% per each unit increase of MedDiet score (OR=0.7, 95% CI:0.6-0.8, p < 0.0001). Patients with cancer-related admission were 37.7 times more likely to die, compared to those with infection (OR=37.7, 95% CI:4.4-325, p=0.001). According to multivariate linear regression analysis, admission duration was inversely related to Mediterranean diet, since it is decreased 0.18 days on average for each unit increase of MedDiet score (b:-0.18, 95% CI:-0.33 - -0.035, p=0.02). Additionally, the duration of current admission increased on average 0.83 days for each previous hospital admission (b:0.83, 95% CI:0.5-1.16, p<0.0001). The admission duration of patients with cancer was on average 4.5 days higher than the patients who admitted due to infection (b:4.5, 95% CI:0.9-8, p=0.015). Conclusion: Mediterranean diet adequately protects elderly, hospitalized patients against mortality and reduces the duration of hospitalization.

Keywords: Mediterranean diet, malnutrition, nutritional status, prognostic factors for mortality

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Authors: Salman Ali Nisar, Koshi Suzuki

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Precedence Diagram Method (PDM) with its additional relationships i.e., start-to-start, finish-to-finish, and start-to-finish, between activities provides more flexible schedule than traditional Critical Path Method (CPM). But, changing the duration of critical activities in PDM network will have anomalous effect on critical path. Researchers have proposed some classification of critical activity effects. In this paper, we do further study on classifications of critical activity effect and provide more information in detailed. Furthermore, we determine the maximum amount of time for each class of critical activity effect by which the project managers can control the dynamic feature (shortening/lengthening) of critical activities and project duration more efficiently.

Keywords: construction project management, critical path method, project scheduling, precedence diagram method

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Authors: Wheyming Tina Song, Chi-Hao Hong, Peisyuan Lin

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An important performance measure for stochastic manufacturing networks is the system reliability, defined as the probability that the production output meets or exceeds a specified demand. The system parameters include the capacity of each workstation and numbers of the conforming parts produced in each workstation. We establish that eighteen archival publications, containing twenty-one examples, provide incorrect values of the system reliability. The author recently published the Song Rule, which provides the correct analytical system-reliability value; it is, however, computationally inefficient for large networks. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation (implemented in C and Flexsim) to provide estimates for the above-mentioned twenty-one examples. The simulation estimates are consistent with the analytical solution for small networks but is computationally efficient for large networks. We argue here for three advantages of Monte Carlo simulation: (1) understanding stochastic systems, (2) validating analytical results, and (3) providing estimates even when analytical and numerical approaches are overly expensive in computation. Monte Carlo simulation could have detected the published analysis errors.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, analytical results, leading digit rule, standard error

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Authors: Rebecca Owusu Coffie, Atakelty Hailu

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Variants of production frontier models have emerged, however, only a limited number of them are applied in empirical research. Hence the effects of these alternative frontier models are not well understood, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we apply recent advances in the production frontier to examine levels of technical efficiency and efficiency drivers. Specifically, we compare the heteroscedastic parametric and the semiparametric stochastic smooth coefficient (SPSC) models. Using rice production data from Ghana, our empirical estimates reveal that alternative specification of efficiency estimators results in either downward or upward bias in the technical efficiency estimates. Methodologically, we find that the SPSC model is more suitable and generates high-efficiency estimates. Within the parametric framework, we find that parameterization of both the mean and variance of the pre-truncated function is the best model. For the drivers of technical efficiency, we observed that longer farm distances increase inefficiency through a reduction in labor productivity. High soil quality, however, increases productivity through increased land productivity.

Keywords: pre-truncated, rice production, smooth coefficient, technical efficiency

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Authors: Majid Mathlouthi, Fethi Lebdi

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Throughout the world, the extent and magnitude of droughts have economic, social and environmental consequences. Today climate change has become more and more felt; most likely they increase the frequency and duration of droughts. An analysis by event of dry event, from series of observations of the daily rainfall is carried out. A daily precipitation threshold value has been set. A catchment localized in Northern Tunisia where the average rainfall is about 600 mm has been studied. Rainfall events are defined as an uninterrupted series of rainfall days understanding at least a day having received a precipitation superior or equal to a fixed threshold. The dry events are constituted of a series of dry days framed by two successive rainfall events. A rainfall event is a vector of coordinates the duration, the rainfall depth per event and the duration of the dry event. The depth and duration are found to be correlated. So we use conditional probabilities to analyse the depth per event. The negative binomial distribution fits well the dry event. The duration of the rainfall event follows a geometric distribution. The length of the climatically cycle adjusts to the Incomplete Gamma. Results of this analysis was used to study of the effects of climate change on water resources and crops and to calibrate precipitation models with little rainfall records. In response to long droughts in the basin, the drought management system is based on three phases during each of the three phases; different measurements are applied and executed. The first is before drought, preparedness and early warning; the second is drought management, mitigation in the event of drought; and the last subsequent drought, when the drought is over.

Keywords: dry spell, precipitation threshold, climate vulnerability, adaptation measures

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Authors: Khairul Bariah Sulaiman, Tajul Aris Yang

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Fermentation is well known as an essential process in cocoa beans. Besides to develop the precursor of cocoa flavour, it also induce the colour changes in the beans.The fermentation process is reported to be influenced by duration of pod storage and fermentation. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate colour of Malaysian cocoa beans and how the pods storage and fermentation duration using shallow box technique will effect on it characteristics. There are two factors being studied ie duration of cocoa pod storage (0, 2, 4, and 6 days) and duration of cocoa fermentation (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days). The experiment is arranged in 4 x 6 factorial design with 24 treatments and arrangement is in a Completely Randomised Design (CRD). The produced beans is inspected for colour changes under artificial light during cut test and divided into four groups of colour namely fully brown, purple brown, fully purple and slaty. Cut tests indicated that cocoa beans which are directly dried without undergone fermentation has the highest slaty percentage. However, application of pods storage before fermentation process is found to decrease the slaty percentage. In contrast, the percentages of fully brown beans start to dominate after two days of fermentation, especially from four and six days of pods storage batch. Whereas, almost all batch have percentage of fully purple less than 20%. Interestingly, the percentage of purple brown beans are scattered in the entire beans batch regardless any specific trend. Meanwhile, statistical analysis using General Linear Model showed that the pods storage has a significant effect on the colour characteristic of the Malaysian dried beans compared to fermentation duration.

Keywords: cocoa beans, colour, fermentation, shallow box

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Authors: Panagiotis Karadimos, Leonidas Anthopoulos

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Predicting the actual cost and duration in construction projects concern a continuous and existing problem for the construction sector. This paper addresses this problem with modern methods and data available from past public construction projects. 39 bridge projects, constructed in Greece, with a similar type of available data were examined. Considering each project’s attributes with the actual cost and the actual duration, correlation analysis is performed and the most appropriate predictive project variables are defined. Additionally, the most efficient subgroup of variables is selected with the use of the WEKA application, through its attribute selection function. The selected variables are used as input neurons for neural network models through correlation analysis. For constructing neural network models, the application FANN Tool is used. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual cost, produced a mean squared error with a value of 3.84886e-05 and it was based on the budgeted cost and the quantity of deck concrete. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual duration, produced a mean squared error with a value of 5.89463e-05 and it also was based on the budgeted cost and the amount of deck concrete.

Keywords: actual cost and duration, attribute selection, bridge construction, neural networks, predicting models, FANN TOOL, WEKA

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Authors: Kang-Mo Jung

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Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is a penalized regression which considers both fitting and generalization ability of a model. However, the squared loss function is very sensitive to even single outlier. We proposed a weighted absolute deviation loss function for the robustness of the estimates in least absolute deviation support vector machine. The proposed estimates can be obtained by a quadratic programming algorithm. Numerical experiments on simulated datasets show that the proposed algorithm is competitive in view of robustness to outliers.

Keywords: least absolute deviation, quadratic programming, robustness, support vector machine, weight

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh, John E. Daniels, Joseph W. McKean

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In this paper numerous robust fitting procedures are considered in estimating spatial variograms. In spatial statistics, the conventional variogram fitting procedure (non-linear weighted least squares) suffers from the same outlier problem that has plagued this method from its inception. Even a 3-parameter model, like the variogram, can be adversely affected by a single outlier. This paper uses the Hogg-Type adaptive procedures to select an optimal score function for a rank-based estimator for these non-linear models. Numeric examples and simulation studies will demonstrate the robustness, utility, efficiency, and validity of these estimates.

Keywords: asymptotic relative efficiency, non-linear rank-based, rank estimates, variogram

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Authors: Manas Shah

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Black Scholes option pricing model is one of the most important concepts in modern world of computational finance. However, its practical use can be challenging as one of the input parameters must be estimated; implied volatility of the underlying security. The more precisely these values are estimated, the more accurate their corresponding estimates of theoretical option prices would be. Here, we present a novel model based on Cuckoo Search Optimization (CS) which finds more precise estimates of implied volatility than Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA).

Keywords: black scholes model, cuckoo search optimization, particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Hassan J. Al Salman, Ahmed A. Al Ghafli

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In this study, we consider a nonlinear in time finite element approximation of a reaction diffusion system of lambda-omega type. We use a fixed-point theorem to prove existence of the approximations at each time level. Then, we derive some essential stability estimates and discuss the uniqueness of the approximations. In addition, we employ Nochetto mathematical framework to prove an optimal error bound in time for d= 1, 2 and 3 space dimensions. Finally, we present some numerical experiments to verify the obtained theoretical results.

Keywords: reaction diffusion system, finite element approximation, stability estimates, error bound

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Authors: Paris Binos

Abstract:

The present work investigates developmental aspects of the duration of isolated vowels in infants with normal hearing compared to those who received cochlear implants (CIs) before two years of age. Infants with normal hearing produced shorter vowel duration since this find related with more mature production abilities. First isolated vowels are transparent during the protophonic stage as evidence of an increased motor and linguistic control. Vowel duration is a crucial factor for the transition of prelexical speech to normal adult speech. Despite current knowledge of data for infants with normal hearing more research is needed to unravel productions skills in early implanted children. Thus, isolated vowel productions by two congenitally hearing-impaired Greek infants (implantation ages 1:4-1:11; post-implant ages 0:6-1:3) were recorded and sampled for six months after implantation with a Nucleus-24. The results compared with the productions of three normal hearing infants (chronological ages 0:8-1:1). Vegetative data and vocalizations masked by external noise or sounds were excluded. Participants had no other disabilities and had unknown deafness etiology. Prior to implantation the infants had an average unaided hearing loss of 95-110 dB HL while the post-implantation PTA decreased to 10-38 dB HL. The current research offers a methodology for the processing of the prelinguistic productions based on a combination of acoustical and auditory analyses. Based on the current methodological framework, duration measured through spectrograms based on wideband analysis, from the voicing onset to the end of the vowel. The end marked by two co-occurring events: 1) The onset of aperiodicity with a rapid change in amplitude in the waveform and 2) a loss in formant’s energy. Cut-off levels of significance were set at 0.05 for all tests. Bonferroni post hoc tests indicated that difference was significant between the mean duration of vowels of infants wearing CIs and their normal hearing peers. Thus, the mean vowel duration of CIs measured longer compared to the normal hearing peers (0.000). The current longitudinal findings contribute to the existing data for the performance of children wearing CIs at a very young age and enrich also the data of the Greek language. The above described weakness for CI’s performance is a challenge for future work in speech processing and CI’s processing strategies.

Keywords: cochlear implant, duration, spectrogram, vowel

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Authors: Babatunde Dosumu, Obuks Ejohwomu, Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo

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Cost estimation in construction is often difficult, particularly when dealing with risks and uncertainties, which are inevitable and peculiar to developing countries like Nigeria. Direct consequences of these are major deviations in cost, duration, and quality. The fundamental aim of this study is to develop a framework for assessing the impacts of risk on cost estimation, which in turn causes variabilities between contract sum and final account. This is very important, as initial estimates given to clients should reflect the certain magnitude of consistency and accuracy, which the client builds other planning-related activities upon, and also enhance the capabilities of construction industry professionals by enabling better prediction of the final account from the contract sum. In achieving this, a systematic literature review was conducted with cost variability and construction projects as search string within three databases: Scopus, Web of science, and Ebsco (Business source premium), which are further analyzed and gap(s) in knowledge or research discovered. From the extensive review, it was found that factors causing deviation between final accounts and contract sum ranged between 1 and 45. Besides, it was discovered that a cost estimation framework similar to Building Cost Information Services (BCIS) is unavailable in Nigeria, which is a major reason why initial estimates are very often inconsistent, leading to project delay, abandonment, or determination at the expense of the huge sum of money invested. It was concluded that the development of a cost estimation framework that is adjudged an important tool in risk shedding rather than risk-sharing in project risk management would be a panacea to cost estimation problems, leading to cost variability in the Nigerian construction industry by the time this ongoing Ph.D. research is completed. It was recommended that practitioners in the construction industry should always take into account risk in order to facilitate the rapid development of the construction industry in Nigeria, which should give stakeholders a more in-depth understanding of the estimation effectiveness and efficiency to be adopted by stakeholders in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: cost variability, construction projects, future studies, Nigeria

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Authors: Yahya Maeni

Abstract:

It is well established that amblyopic patients have a reduced reading performance and oculomotor deficits. Word length has a significant impact on reading performance and eye movement behaviour during reading. As there no previous attempts to assess whether amblyopic eyes would be affected by word length while reading. This study aims to assess the effect of word length on amblyopic eye movement behaviour during reading including fixation duration, number of fixation and gaze duration. 21 adults with amblyopia and 21 age-matched controls participated in the study (age ± SD) (23.80 ± 4.66) for amblyopes and (24.20 ± 3.58) for Controls. Eye movement was recorded during reading binocularly using Eyelink 1000. Study was designed as 2 x 2 (amblyopia vs. control) x 2 lengths (4 letters, and 8 letters). Compared to controls, the amblyopic participants report significant longer duration of fixation, higher number of fixation and longer gaze duration for short words with far higher significant difference for long words. It could be concluded that eye movement in amblyopia during reading might be accounted for by the length of a word within a text and this could possible explanation of reduced reading performance among amblyopes. By understanding the effect of word length on amblyopia will shed light on reading deficits in amblyopia and help to determine the reading needs of amplyopes in educational and clinical settings.

Keywords: amblyopia, eye movement, reading, fixation

Procedia PDF Downloads 115