Search results for: drift function and volatility function

Authors: Ammar Amsyar Abdul Haddi, Mohd Hasni Jaafar

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Heavy metals are elements naturally presented in the environment that can cause adverse effect to health. But not much literature was found on effects toward lung function, where impairment of lung function may lead to various lung diseases. The objective of the study is to explore the lung function impairment, urinary heavy metal level, and its associated factors among the community in Klang valley, Malaysia. Sampling was done in Kuala Lumpur suburb public and housing areas during community events throughout March 2019 till October 2019. respondents who gave the consent were given a questionnaire to answer and was proceeded with a lung function test. Urine samples were obtained at the end of the session and sent for Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analysis for heavy metal cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) concentration. A total of 200 samples were analysed, and of all, 52% of respondents were male, Age ranging from 18 years old to 74 years old with a mean age of 38.44. Urinary samples show that 12% of the respondent (n=22) has Cd level above than average, and 1.5 % of the respondent (n=3) has urinary Pb at an above normal level. Bivariate analysis show that there was a positive correlation between urinary Cd and urinary Pb (r= 0.309; p<0.001). Furthermore, there was a negative correlation between urinary Cd level and full vital capacity (FVC) (r=-0.202, p=0.004), Force expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) (r = -0.225, p=0.001), and also with Force expiratory flow between 25-75% FVC (FEF25%-75%) (r= -0.187, p=0.008). however, urinary Pb did not show any association with FVC, FEV1, FEV1/FVC, or FEF25%-75%. Multiple linear regression analysis shows that urinary Cd remained significant and negatively affect FVC% (p=0.025) and FEV1% (p=0.004) achieved from the predicted value. On top of that, other factors such as education level (p=0.013) and duration of smoking(p=0.003) may influencing both urinary Cd and performance in lung function as well, suggesting Cd as a potential mediating factor between smoking and impairment of lung function. however, there was no interaction detected between heavy metal or other influencing factor in this study. In short, there is a negative linear relationship detected between urinary Cd and lung function, and urinary Cd is likely to affects lung function in a restrictive pattern. Since smoking is also an influencing factor for urinary Cd and lung function impairment, it is highly suggested that smokers should be screened for lung function and urinary Cd level in the future for early disease prevention.

Keywords: lung function, heavy metals, community

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Authors: Duygu Kan, Mehmet Cayoren

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Sommerfeld-integrals (SIs) are commonly encountered in electromagnetics problems involving analysis of antennas and scatterers embedded in planar multilayered media. Generally speaking, the analytical solution of SIs is unavailable, and it is well known that numerical evaluation of SIs is very time consuming and computationally expensive due to the highly oscillating and slowly decaying nature of the integrands. Therefore, fast computation of SIs has a paramount importance. In this paper, a parallel code has been developed to speed up the computation of SI in the framework of calculation of dyadic Green’s function in multilayered media. OpenMP shared memory approach is used to parallelize the SI algorithm and resulted in significant time savings. Moreover accelerating the computation of dyadic Green’s function is discussed based on the parallel SI algorithm developed.

Keywords: Sommerfeld-integrals, multilayer dyadic Green’s function, OpenMP, shared memory parallel programming

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Authors: Ali Etemadi, Polat H. Gulkan

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The drift spectrum derived through the continuous shear-beam and wave propagation theory is known to be useful appliance to measure of the demand of pulse like near field ground motions on building structures. As regards, many of old frame buildings with poor or non-ductile column elements, pass the elastic limits and blurt the post yielding hysteresis degradation responses when subjected to such impulsive ground motions. The drift spectrum which, is based on a linear system cannot be predicted the overestimate drift demands arising from inelasticity in an elastic plastic systems. A simple procedure to estimate the drift demands in shear-type frames which, respond over the elastic limits is described and effect of hysteresis degradation behavior on seismic demands is clarified. Whereupon the modification factors are proposed to incorporate the hysteresis degradation effects parametrically. These factors are defined with respected to the linear systems. The method can be applicable for rapid assessment of existing poor detailed, non-ductile buildings.

Keywords: drift spectrum, shear-type frame, stiffness and strength degradation, pinching, smooth hysteretic model, quasi static analysis

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Authors: Bahram Fathi, Karim Alizadeh, Azam Mohammadbagheri

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of oil price shocks in explaining business cycles in Iran using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. The model with two shocks produces different values for volatility, but these values have the same ranking as that of the actual data for most variables. In addition, the actual data are close to the ratio of standard deviations to the output obtained from the model with two shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than the oil shocks. The model with only a productivity shock produces the most similar figures in term of volatility magnitude to that of the actual data. Next, we use the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to evaluate the capability of the model. The IRF shows no effect of an oil shock on the capital stocks and on labor hours, which is a feature of the model. When the log-linearized system of equations is solved numerically, investment and labor hours were not found to be functions of the oil shock. This research recommends using different techniques to compare the model’s robustness. One method by which to do this is to have all decision variables as a function of the oil shock by inducing the stationary to the model differently. Another method is to impose a bond adjustment cost. This study intends to fill that gap. To achieve this objective, we derive a DSGE model that allows for the world oil price and productivity shocks. Second, we calibrate the model to the Iran economy. Next, we compare the moments from the theoretical model with both single and multiple shocks with that obtained from the actual data to see the extent to which business cycles in Iran can be explained by total oil revenue shock. Then, we use an impulse response function to evaluate the role of world oil price shocks. Finally, I present implications of the findings and interpretations in accordance with economic theory.

Keywords: oil price, shocks, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Iran

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Authors: Ali Khwaldeh, Nimer Adwan

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In this paper, a method for constructing a controlled balanced Boolean function satisfying the criterion of a Strictly Avalanche Criteria (SAC) effect is proposed. The proposed method is based on the use of three orthogonal nonlinear components which is unlike the high-order SAC functions. So, the generator synthesized by the proposed method has separate sets of control and information inputs. The proposed method proves its simplicity and the implementation ability. The proposed method allows synthesizing a SAC function generator with fixed control and information inputs. This ensures greater efficiency of the built-in oscillator compared to high-order SAC functions that can be used as a generator. Accordingly, the method is completely formalized and implemented as a software product.

Keywords: boolean function, controlled balanced boolean function, strictly avalanche criteria, orthogonal nonlinear

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Zakaria S. G. Hegazy, Walid M. A. Ahmed

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This paper examines the dependence structure of Islamic stock markets on Bitcoin’s realized volatility components in bear, normal, and bull market periods. A quantile regression approach is employed, after adjusting raw returns with respect to a broad set of relevant global factors and accounting for structural breaks in the data. The results reveal that upside volatility tends to exert negative influences on Islamic developed-market returns more in bear than in bull market conditions, while downside volatility positively affects returns during bear and bull conditions. For emerging markets, we find that the upside (downside) component exerts lagged negative (positive) effects on returns in bear (all) market regimes. By and large, the dependence structures turn out to be asymmetric. Our evidence provides essential implications for investors.

Keywords: cryptocurrency markets, bitcoin, realized volatility measures, asymmetry, quantile regression

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Authors: S. B. Provost, Hossein Zareamoghaddam

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A univariate density approximation technique whereby the derivative of the logarithm of a density function is assumed to be expressible as a rational function is introduced. This approach which extends Pearson’s curve system is solely based on the moments of a distribution up to a determinable order. Upon solving a system of linear equations, the coefficients of the polynomial ratio can readily be identified. An explicit solution to the integral representation of the resulting density approximant is then obtained. It will be explained that when utilised in conjunction with sample moments, this methodology lends itself to the modelling of ‘big data’. Applications to sets of univariate and bivariate observations will be presented.

Keywords: density estimation, log-density, moments, Pearson's curve system

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Authors: Mizam Doğan

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In service life; structures can be damaged if they are subjected to dead and live loads which are greater than design values. For preventing this case; possible loads must be correctly calculated, structure must be designed according to determined loads, and structure must not be used out of its function. If loading case of the structure changes when its function changes; it must be reinforced for continuing it is new function. Reinforcement is a process that is made by increasing the existing strengths of structural system elements of the structure as reinforced concrete walls, beams, and slabs. Reinforcement can be done by casting reinforced concrete, placing steel and fiber structural elements. In this paper, reinforcing of columns and slabs of a structure of which function is changed is studied step by step. This reinforcement is made for increasing vertical and lateral load carrying capacity of the building. Not for repairing damaged structural system.

Keywords: strengthening, RC slabs, seismic load, steel beam, structural irregularity

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Authors: Parker Townes, Prabdeep Panesar, Chunlin Liu, Soo Youn Lee, Dan Devoe, Paul D. Arnold, Jennifer Crosbie, Russell Schachar

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Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are impairing childhood neurodevelopmental disorders with problems in executive functions. Executive functions are higher-level mental processes essential for daily functioning and goal attainment. There is genetic and neural overlap between ADHD and ASD. The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate if pediatric ASD and ADHD have distinct executive function profiles. This review was completed following Cochrane guidelines. Fifty-eight articles were identified through database searching, followed by a blinded screening in duplicate. A meta-analysis was performed for all task performance metrics evaluated by at least two articles. Forty-five metrics from 24 individual tasks underwent analysis. No differences were found between youth with ASD and ADHD in any domain under direct comparison. However, individuals with ASD and ADHD exhibited deficient attention, flexibility, visuospatial abilities, working memory, processing speed, and response inhibition compared to controls. No deficits in planning were noted in either disorder. Only 11 studies included a group with comorbid ASD+ADHD, making it difficult to determine whether common executive function deficits are a function of comorbidity. Further research is needed to determine if comorbidity accounts for the apparent commonality in executive function between ASD and ADHD.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, ADHD, neurocognition, executive function, youth

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Authors: Samir K. Safi

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The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of two types of models, namely MIDAS and MIDAS-GARCH, in predicting the volatility of crude oil returns based on gold price returns and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to identify which model would provide more accurate short-term and long-term predictions and which model would perform better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The findings of the study revealed that the MIDAS model performed better in predicting short-term and long-term volatility before the pandemic, while the MIDAS-GARCH model performed significantly better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The study highlights the importance of selecting appropriate models to handle the complexities of real-world data and shows that the choice of model can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions. The practical implications of model selection and exploring potential methodological adjustments for future research will be highlighted and discussed.

Keywords: GARCH-MIDAS, MIDAS, crude oil, gold, COVID-19, volatility

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Authors: Meng Wu

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Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) landing technology is a common task that is required to be fulfilled by fly robots. In this paper, the crazyflie2.0 is located by ultra-wideband (UWB) localization system that contains 4 UWB anchors. Another UWB anchor is introduced and installed on a stationary platform. One cost function is designed to find the minimum distance between crazyflie2.0 and the anchor installed on the stationary platform. The coordinates of the anchor are unknown in advance, and the goal of the cost function is to define the location of the anchor, which can be considered as an optimal landing point. When the cost function reaches the minimum value, the corresponding coordinates of the UWB anchor fixed on the stationary platform can be calculated and defined as the landing point. The simulation shows the effectiveness of the method in this paper.

Keywords: UAV landing, UWB localization system, UWB anchor, cost function, stationary platform

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Authors: Moh'd Alodat

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In this paper, we discuss the power function distribution and derive the maximum likelihood estimator of its parameter as well as the reliability parameter. We derive the large sample properties of the estimators based on the selective order statistic scheme. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the significance of the selective order statistic scheme in our setup and to compare the efficiency of the new proposed estimators.

Keywords: fisher information, maximum likelihood estimator, power function distribution, ranked set sampling, selective order statistics sampling

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Authors: Myung-Gon Yoon, Jung-Ho Moon, Tae Kwon Ha

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This paper considers a robust stabilization problem of a single agent in a multi-agent consensus system composed of identical agents, when the network topology of the system is completely unknown. It is shown that the transfer function of an agent in a consensus system can be described as a multiplicative perturbation of the isolated agent transfer function in frequency domain. Applying known robust stabilization results, we present sufficient conditions for a robust stabilization of an agent against unknown network topology.

Keywords: single agent control, multi-agent system, transfer function, graph angle

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Authors: Noriko Hanakawa, Masaki Obana

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A simulation tool has been proposed for big-scale projection mapping events. The tool has four main functions based on Mapbox and Unity utilities. The first function is building a 3D model of real cities by MapBox. The second function is a movie projection to some buildings in real cities by Unity. The third function is a movie sending function from a PC to a virtual projector. The fourth function is mapping movies with fitting buildings. The simulation tool was adapted to a real projection mapping event that was held in 2019. The event has been finished. The event had a serious problem in the movie projection to the target building. The extra tents were set in front of the target building. The tents became the obstacles to the movie projection. The simulation tool can be reappeared the problems of the event. Therefore, if the simulation tool was developed before the 2019 projection mapping event, the problem of the tents’ obstacles could be avoided with the simulation tool. In addition, we confirmed that the simulation tool is useful to make a plan of future projection mapping events in order to avoid obstacles of various extra equipment such as utility poles, planting trees, monument towers.

Keywords: projection mapping, projector position, real 3D map, avoiding obstacles

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Authors: Artem A. Krylov

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Instrumental seismological researches in water areas are complicated and expensive, that leads to the lack of strong motion records in most offshore regions. In the same time the number of offshore industrial infrastructure objects, such as oil rigs, subsea pipelines, is constantly increasing. The empirical Green’s function technique proved to be very effective for accelerograms synthesis under the conditions of poorly described seismic wave propagation medium. But the selection of suitable small earthquake record in offshore regions as an empirical Green’s function is a problem because of short seafloor instrumental seismological investigation results usually with weak micro-earthquakes recordings. An approach based on moving average smoothing in the frequency domain is presented for preliminary processing of weak micro-earthquake records before using it as empirical Green’s function. The method results in significant waveform correction for modeled event. The case study for 2009 L’Aquila earthquake was used to demonstrate the suitability of the method. This work was supported by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research (project № 18-35-00474 mol_a).

Keywords: accelerogram synthesis, empirical Green's function, marine seismology, microearthquakes

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Authors: Fernando Maass, Pablo Martin, Jorge Olivares

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The Bessel function J₀(x) is very important in Electrodynamics and Physics, as well as its zeros. In this work, a method to obtain high accuracy approximation is presented through an application to that function. In most of the applications of this function, the values of the zeros are very important. In this work, analytic approximations for this function have been obtained valid for all positive values of the variable x, which have high accuracy for the function as well as for the zeros. The approximation is determined by the simultaneous used of the power series and asymptotic expansion. The structure of the approximation is a combination of two rational functions with elementary functions as trigonometric and fractional powers. Here us in Pade method, rational functions are used, but now there combined with elementary functions us fractional powers hyperbolic or trigonometric functions, and others. The reason of this is that now power series of the exact function are used, but together with the asymptotic expansion, which usually includes fractional powers trigonometric functions and other type of elementary functions. The approximation must be a bridge between both expansions, and this can not be accomplished using only with rational functions. In the simplest approximation using 4 parameters the maximum absolute error is less than 0.006 at x ∼ 4.9. In this case also the maximum relative error for the zeros is less than 0.003 which is for the second zero, but that value decreases rapidly for the other zeros. The same kind of behaviour happens for the relative error of the maximum and minimum of the functions. Approximations with higher accuracy and more parameters will be also shown. All the approximations are valid for any positive value of x, and they can be calculated easily.

Keywords: analytic approximations, asymptotic approximations, Bessel functions, quasirational approximations

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Authors: Li Ni, Pen ManMan, Li KenLi

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Clustering is an intensive research for some years because of its multifaceted applications, such as biology, information retrieval, medicine, business and so on. The expectation maximization (EM) is a kind of algorithm framework in clustering methods, one of the ten algorithms of machine learning. Traditionally, optimization of objective function has been the standard approach in EM. Hence, research has investigated the utility of evolutionary computing and related techniques in the regard. Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO) is a recently established method. So the property embedded in CRO is used to solve optimization problems. This paper presents an algorithm framework (EM-CRO) with modified CRO operators based on EM cluster problems. The hybrid algorithm is mainly to solve the problem of initial value sensitivity of the objective function optimization clustering algorithm. Our experiments mainly take the EM classic algorithm:k-means and fuzzy k-means as an example, through the CRO algorithm to optimize its initial value, get K-means-CRO and FKM-CRO algorithm. The experimental results of them show that there is improved efficiency for solving objective function optimization clustering problems.

Keywords: chemical reaction optimization, expection maimization, initia, objective function clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 682

Authors: Nurul Aini Abdul Wahab, Nor Syamim Halidin, Sayidatina Aisah Masnan, Nur Izzati Romli

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There are many applications of principle component method for reducing the large set of variables in various fields. Fisher’s Discriminant function is also a popular tool for classification. In this research, the researcher focuses on studying the performance of Principle Component-Fisher’s Discriminant function in helping to classify rice kernels to their defined classes. The data were collected on the smells or odour of the rice kernel using odour-detection sensor, Cyranose. 32 variables were captured by this electronic nose (e-nose). The objective of this research is to measure how well a combination model, between principle component and linear discriminant, to be as a classification model. Principle component method was used to reduce all 32 variables to a smaller and manageable set of components. Then, the reduced components were used to develop the Fisher’s Discriminant function. In this research, there are 4 defined classes of rice kernel which are Aromatic, Brown, Ordinary and Others. Based on the output from principle component method, the 32 variables were reduced to only 2 components. Based on the output of classification table from the discriminant analysis, 40.76% from the total observations were correctly classified into their classes by the PC-Discriminant function. Indirectly, it gives an idea that the classification model developed has committed to more than 50% of misclassifying the observations. As a conclusion, the Fisher’s Discriminant function that was built on a 2-component from PCA (2-PC-D) is not satisfying to classify the rice kernels into its defined classes.

Keywords: classification model, discriminant function, principle component analysis, variable reduction

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Authors: A. Selmi, A. Bisharat

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Using Fourier transform and based on the Mindlin's 2^nd gradient model that involves two length scale parameters, the Green's function, the Eshelby tensor, and the Eshelby-like tensor for a spherical inclusion are derived. It is proved that the Eshelby tensor consists of two parts; the classical Eshelby tensor and a gradient part including the length scale parameters which enable the interpretation of the size effect. When the strain gradient is not taken into account, the obtained Green's function and Eshelby tensor reduce to its analogue based on the classical elasticity. The Eshelby tensor in and outside the inclusion, the volume average of the gradient part and the Eshelby-like tensor are explicitly obtained. Unlike the classical Eshelby tensor, the results show that the components of the new Eshelby tensor vary with the position and the inclusion dimensions. It is demonstrated that the contribution of the gradient part should not be neglected.

Keywords: Eshelby tensor, Eshelby-like tensor, Green’s function, Mindlin’s 2nd gradient model, spherical inclusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Raphael Naryongo, Philip Ngare, Anthony Waititu

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This paper deals with numerical simulation of Wishart processes for a single asset risky pricing model whose volatility is described by Wishart affine diffusion processes. The multi-factor specification of volatility will make the model more flexible enough to fit the stock market data for short or long maturities for better returns. The Wishart process is a stochastic process which is a positive semi-definite matrix-valued generalization of the square root process. The aim of the study is to model the log asset stock returns under the double Wishart stochastic volatility model. The solution of the log-asset return dynamics for Bi-Wishart processes will be obtained through Euler-Maruyama discretization schemes. The numerical results on the asset returns are compared to the existing models returns such as Heston stochastic volatility model and double Heston stochastic volatility model

Keywords: euler schemes, log-asset return, infinitesimal generator, wishart diffusion affine processes

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Authors: Melek Akay

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Turkey's agricultural commodity prices are prone to fluctuation but have gradually over time. A considerable amount of literature examines the changes in these prices by dealing with other commodities such as energy. Links between agricultural and energy markets have therefore been extensively investigated. Since red meat prices are becoming increasingly volatile in Turkey, this paper analyses the price volatility of veal, lamb and the relationship between red meat and crude oil, exchange rates by applying the generalize all period unconstraint volatility model, which generalises the GARCH (p, q) model for analysing weekly data covering a period of May 2006 to February 2017. Empirical results show that veal and lamb prices present volatility during the last decade, but particularly between 2009 and 2012. Moreover, oil prices have a significant effect on veal and lamb prices as well as their previous periods. Consequently, our research can lead policy makers to evaluate policy implementation in the appropriate way and reduce the impacts of oil prices by supporting producers.

Keywords: red meat price, volatility, crude oil, exchange rates, GARCH models, Turkey

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Authors: Thomas, Daniel Tajo, Kish

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Sight is primarily associated with the function of gathering and processing near and extended spatial information which is largely used to support self-determined interaction with the environment through self-directed movement and navigation. By contrast, hearing is primarily associated with the function of gathering and processing sequential information which may typically be used to support self-determined communication through the self-directed use of music and language. Blindness or the lack of vision is traditionally characterized by a lack of capacity to access spatial information which, in turn, is presumed to result in a lack of capacity for self-determined interaction with the environment due to limitations in self-directed movement and navigation. However, through a specific protocol of FlashSonar education developed by World Access for the Blind, the function of hearing can be expanded in blind people to carry out some of the functions normally associated with sight, that is to access and process near and extended spatial information to construct three-dimensional acoustic images of the environment. This perceptual education protocol results in a significant restoration in blind people of self-determined environmental interaction, movement, and navigational capacities normally attributed to vision - a new way to see. Thus, by expanding the function of hearing to process spatial information to restore self-determined movement, we are not only changing the meaning of blindness, and what it means to be blind, but we are also recasting the meaning of vision and what it is to see.

Keywords: echolocation, changing, sensory, function

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Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

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We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

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Authors: Marc Evenst Jn Jacques, Sophie Bernard

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Electrical and electronic applications, as well as rechargeable batteries, are common in any economy. They also contain a number of important and valuable metals. It is critical to investigate the impact of these new materials or volume sources on the metal market dynamics. This paper investigates the impact of responsible recycling within the European region on metal price volatility. As far as we know, no empirical studies have been conducted to assess the role of metal recycling in metal market price volatility. The goal of this paper is to test the claim that metal recycling helps to cushion price volatility. A set of circular economy indicators/variables, namely, 1) annual total trade values of recycled metals, 2) annual volume of scrap traded and 3) circular material use rate, and 4) information about recycling, are used to estimate the volatility of monthly spot prices of regular metals. A combination of the GARCH-MIDAS model for mixed frequency data sampling and a simple GARCH (1,1) model for the same frequency variables was adopted to examine the potential links between each variable and price volatility. We discovered that from 2010 to 2019, except for Nickel, scrap consumption (Millions of tons), Scrap Trade Values, and Recycled Material use rate had no significant impact on the price volatility of standard metals (Aluminum, Lead) and precious metals (Gold and Platinum). Worldwide interest in recycling has no impact on returns or volatility. Specific interest in metal recycling did have a link to the mean return equation for Aluminum, Gold and to the volatility equation for lead and Nickel.

Keywords: recycling, circular economy, price volatility, GARCH, mixed data sampling

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Authors: Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Angela Unna Chukwu

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Richrads growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richards growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richards growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richards nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richards growth model.

Keywords: height, diameter at breast height, DBH, hyperbolic sine function, Pinus caribaea, Richards' growth model

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Authors: Beth Taylor, Kojima Mituaki, Atsushi Senda, Koji Morishita, Yasuhiro Otomo

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Intestinal ischaemia-reperfusion injury drives systemic inflammation and organ failure following trauma/haemorrhagic shock (T/HS), through the release of pro-inflammatory mediators into the mesenteric lymph (ML). However, changes in the biological function of ML are not fully understood, and therefore, a specific model of intestinal ischaemia-reperfusion injury is required to obtain ML for the study of its biological function upon inflammatory cells. ML obtained from a model of intestinal ischaemia-reperfusion injury was used to assess biological function upon inflammatory cells and investigate changes in the biological function of individual ML components. An additional model was used to determine the effect of vagal nerve stimulation (VNS) upon biological function. Rat ML was obtained by mesenteric lymphatic duct cannulation before and after occlusion of the superior mesenteric artery (SMAO). ML was incubated with human polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMNs), monocytes and lymphocytes, and the biological function of these cells was assessed. ML was then separated into supernatant, exosome and micro-vesicle components, and biological activity was compared in monocytes. A model with an additional VNS phase was developed, in which the right cervical vagal nerve was exposed and stimulated, and ML collected for comparison of biological function with the conventional model. The biological function of ML was altered by intestinal ischaemia-reperfusion injury, increasing PMN activation, monocyte activation, and lymphocyte apoptosis. Increased monocyte activation was only induced by the exosome component of ML, with no significant changes induced by the supernatant or micro-vesicle components. VNS partially attenuated monocyte activation, but no attenuation of PMN activation was observed. Intestinal ischaemia-reperfusion injury induces changes in the biological function of ML upon both innate and adaptive inflammatory cells, supporting the role of intestinal ischaemia-reperfusion injury in driving systemic inflammation following T/HS. The exosome component of ML appears to be critical to the transport of pro-inflammatory mediators in ML. VNS partially attenuates changes in innate inflammatory cell biological activity observed, presenting possibilities for future novel treatment development in multiple organ failure patients.

Keywords: exosomes, inflammation, intestinal ischaemia, mesenteric lymph, vagal stimulation

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Authors: Shaomei Li, Yawen Wang, Chao Gao

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To improve tracking drift which often occurs in adaptive tracking, an algorithm based on the fusion of tracking and detection is proposed in this paper. Firstly, object tracking is posed as a binary classification problem and is modeled by partial least squares (PLS) analysis. Secondly, tracking object frame by frame via particle filtering. Thirdly, validating the tracking reliability based on both positive and negative models matching. Finally, relocating the object based on SIFT features matching and voting when drift occurs. Object appearance model is updated at the same time. The algorithm cannot only sense tracking drift but also relocate the object whenever needed. Experimental results demonstrate that this algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms on many challenging sequences.

Keywords: object tracking, tracking drift, partial least squares analysis, positive and negative models matching

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Authors: A. Ejah Umraeni Salam, M. Tola, M. Selintung, F. Maricar

Abstract:

Clean water is an essential and fundamental human need. Therefore, its supply must be assured by maintaining the quality, quantity and water pressure. However the fact is, on its distribution system, leakage happens and becomes a common world issue. One of the technical causes of the leakage is a leaking pipe. The purpose of the research is how to use the Radial Basis Function Neural (RBFNN) model to detect the location and the magnitude of the pipeline leakage rapidly and efficiently. In this study the RBFNN are trained and tested on data from EPANET hydraulic modeling system. Method of Radial Basis Function Neural Network is proved capable to detect location and magnitude of pipeline leakage with of the accuracy of the prediction results based on the value of RMSE (Root Meant Square Error), comparison prediction and actual measurement approaches 0.000049 for the whole pipeline system.

Keywords: radial basis function neural network, leakage pipeline, EPANET, RMSE

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