Search results for: confidence interval lengths

Authors: Peiyin Hung, Katy Kozhimannil, Michelle Casey, Ira Moscovice

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Background/Objective: The loss of obstetric services has been a pressing concern in urban and rural areas nationwide. This study aims to determine factors that contribute to the loss of obstetric care through closures of a hospital or obstetric unit. Methods: Data from 2002-2013 American Hospital Association annual surveys were used to identify hospitals providing obstetric services. We linked these data to Medicare Healthcare Cost Report Information for hospital financial indicators, the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey for zip-code level characteristics, and Area Health Resource files for county- level clinician supply measures. A discrete-time multinomial logit model was used to determine contributing factors to obstetric unit or hospital closures. Results: Of 3,551 hospitals providing obstetrics services during 2002-2013, 82% kept units open, 12% stopped providing obstetrics services, and 6% closed down completely. State-level variations existed. Factors that significantly increased hospitals’ probability of obstetric unit closures included lower than 250 annual birth volume (adjusted marginal effects [95% confidence interval]=34.1% [28%, 40%]), closer proximity to another hospital with obstetric services (per 10 miles: -1.5% [-2.4, -0.5%]), being in a county with lower family physician supply (-7.8% [-15.0%, -0.6%), being in a zip code with higher percentage of non-white females (per 10%: 10.2% [2.1%, 18.3%]), and with lower income (per $1,000 income: -0.14% [-0.28%, -0.01%]). Conclusions: Over the past 12 years, loss of obstetric services has disproportionately affected areas served by low-volume urban and rural hospitals, non-white and low-income communities, and counties with fewer family physicians, signaling a need to address maternity care access in these communities.

Keywords: access to care, obstetric care, service line discontinuation, hospital, obstetric unit closures

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Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: Estelle Démoulin, Dionysios Adamopoulos, Tornike Sologashvili, Mathieu Van Steenberghe, Jalal Jolou, Haran Burri, Christoph Huber, Mustafa Cikirikcioglu

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Background & objective: Mitral valve surgeries are mainly performed by median sternotomy with conventional direct atriotomy. Good exposure to the mitral valve is challenging, especially for acute pathologies, where left atrium dilation does not occur. Other atriotomies, such as transseptal or superior septal, are used as they allow better access and visualization. Peri- and postoperative outcomes of these three different left atriotomies were compared. Methods: Patients undergoing mitral valve surgery between January 2010 and December 2020 were included and divided into three groups: group 1 (conventional direct, n=115), group 2 (transseptal, n=33) and group 3 (superior septal, n=59). To improve the sampling size, all patients underwent mitral valve surgery with or without associated procedures (CABG, aortic-tricuspid surgery, Maze procedure). The study protocol was approved by SwissEthics. Results: No difference was shown for the etiology of mitral valve disease, except endocarditis, which was more frequent in group 3 (p = 0.014). Elective surgeries and isolated mitral valve surgery were more frequent in group 1 (p = 0.008, p = 0.011) and aortic clamping and cardiopulmonary bypass were shorter (p = 0.002, p<0.001). Group 3 had more emergency procedures (p = 0.011) and longer lengths of intensive care unit and hospital stay (p = 0.000, p = 0.003). There was no difference in permanent pacemaker implantation, postoperative complications and mortality between the groups. Conclusion: Mitral valve surgeries can be safely performed using those three left atriotomies. Conventional direct may lead to shorter aortic clamping and cardiopulmonary bypass times. Superior septal is mostly used for acute pathologies, and it does not increase postoperative arrhythmias and permanent pacemaker implantation. However, intensive care unit and hospital lengths of stay were found to be longer in this group. In our opinion, this outcome is more related to the pathology and type of surgery than the incision itself.

Keywords: Mitral valve surgery, cardiac surgery, atriotomy, Operative outcomes

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Authors: Niyada Naksuk, Thoetchai Peeraphatdit, Vitaly Herasevich, Peter A. Brady, Suraj Kapa, Samuel J. Asirvatham

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Introduction: Little is known about the safety of antipsychotic therapy for delirium in the coronary care unit (CCU). Our aim was to examine the effect of delirium and antipsychotic therapy among CCU patients. Methods: Pre-study Confusion Assessment Method-Intensive Care Unit (CAM–ICU) criteria were implemented in screening consecutive patients admitted to Mayo Clinic, Rochester, the USA from 2004 through 2013. Death status was prospectively ascertained. Results: Of 11,079 study patients, the incidence of delirium was 8.3% (n=925). Delirium was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.08-2.08; P=.02) and one-year mortality among patients who survived from CCU admission (adjusted HR 1.46; 95% CI, 1.12-1.87; P=.005). A total of 792 doses of haloperidol (5 IQR [3-10] mg/day) or quetiapine (25 IQR [13-50] mg/day) were given to 244 patients with delirium. The clinical characteristics of patients with delirium who did and did not receive antipsychotic therapy were not different (baseline corrected QT [QTc] interval 460±61 ms vs. 457±58 ms, respectively; P = 0.57). In comparison to baseline, mean QTc intervals after the first and third doses of the antipsychotics were not significantly prolonged in haloperidol (448±56, 458±57, and 450±50 ms, respectively) or quetiapine groups (459±54, 467±68, and 462±46 ms, respectively) (P > 0.05 for all). Additionally, in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.67; 95% CI, 0.42-1.04; P=.07), ventricular arrhythmia (adjusted OR 0.87; 95% CI, 0.17-3.62; P=.85) and one-year mortality among the hospital survivors (adjusted HR 0.86; 95% CI 0.62-1.17; P = 0.34) were not different in patients with delirium irrespective of whether or not they received antipsychotics. Conclusions: In patients admitted to the CCU, delirium was associated with an increase in both in-hospital and one-year mortality. Low doses of haloperidol and quetiapine appeared to be safe, without an increase in risk of sudden cardiac death, in-hospital mortality, or one-year mortality in carefully monitored patients.

Keywords: arrhythmias, haloperidol, mortality, qtc interval, quetiapine

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Authors: Raghunath Arnab

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The two-phase sampling which is also known as double sampling was introduced in 1938. In two-phase sampling, samples are selected in phases. In the first phase, a relatively large sample of size is selected by some suitable sampling design and only information on the auxiliary variable is collected. During the second phase, a sample of size is selected either from, the sample selected in the first phase or from the entire population by using a suitable sampling design and information regarding the study and auxiliary variable is collected. Evidently, two phase sampling is useful if the auxiliary information is relatively easy and cheaper to collect than the study variable as well as if the strength of the relationship between the variables and is high. If the sample is selected in more than two phases, the resulting sampling design is called a multi-phase sampling. In this article we will consider how one can use data collected at the first phase sampling at the stages of estimation of the parameter, stratification, selection of sample and their combinations in the second phase in a unified setup applicable to any sampling design and wider classes of estimators. The problem of the estimation of variance will also be considered. The variance of estimator is essential for estimating precision of the survey estimates, calculation of confidence intervals, determination of the optimal sample sizes and for testing of hypotheses amongst others. Although, the variance is a non-negative quantity but its estimators may not be non-negative. If the estimator of variance is negative, then it cannot be used for estimation of confidence intervals, testing of hypothesis or measure of sampling error. The non-negativity properties of the variance estimators will also be studied in details.

Keywords: auxiliary information, two-phase sampling, varying probability sampling, unbiased estimators

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Authors: Noreen Noreen, Aamir Ijaz, Hamza Akhtar

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Background: Screening plays a major role to detect chromosomal abnormalities, Down syndrome, neural tube defects and other inborn diseases of the newborn. Serum biomarkers in the second trimester are useful in determining risk of most common chromosomal anomalies; these test include Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), Unconjugated Oestriol (UEȝ)and inhibin-A. Quadruple biomarkers are worth test in diagnosing the congenital pathology during pregnancy, these procedures does not form a part of routine health care of pregnant women in Pakistan, so the median value is lacking for population in Pakistan. Objective: To determine median values of biochemical maternal serum markers in local population during second trimester maternal screening. Study settings: Department of Chemical Pathology and Endocrinology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) Rawalpindi. Methods: Cross-Sectional study for estimation of reference values. Non-probability consecutive sampling, 155 healthy pregnant women, of 30-40 years of age, will be included. As non-parametric statistics will be used, the minimum sample size is 120. Result: Total 155 women were enrolled into this study. The age of all women enrolled ranged from 30 to39 yrs. Among them, 39 per cent of women were less than 34 years. Mean maternal age 33.46±2.35 SD and maternal body weight were 54.98±2.88. Median value of quadruple markers calculated from 15-18th week of gestation that will be used for calculation of MOM for screening of trisomy21 in this gestational age. Median value at 15 week of gestation were observed hCG 36650 mIU/ml, AFP 23.3 IU/ml, UEȝ 3.5 nmol/L, InhibinA 198 ng/L, at 16 week of gestation hCG 29050 mIU/ml, AFP 35.4 IU/ml, UEȝ 4.1 nmol/L, InhibinA 179 ng/L, at 17 week of gestation hCG 28450 mIU/ml, AFP 36.0 IU/ml, UEȝ 6.7 nmol/L, InhibinA 176 ng/L and at 18 week of gestation hCG 25200 mIU/ml, AFP 38.2 IU/ml, UEȝ 8.2 nmol/L, InhibinA 190 ng/L respectively.All the comparisons were significant (p-Value <0.005) with 95% confidence Interval (CI) and level of significance of study set by going through literature and set at 5%. Conclusion: The median values for these four biomarkers in Pakistani pregnant women can be used to calculate MoM.

Keywords: screening, down syndrome, quadruple test, second trimester, serum biomarkers

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Authors: Faisal G. Khamis, Ghaleb A. El-Refae

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Many researchers have studied socioeconomic, health, and security variables in the developed countries; however, very few studies used multivariate analysis in developing countries. The current study contributes to the scarce literature about the determinants of the variance in socioeconomic, health, and security factors. Questions raised were whether the independent variables (IVs) of governorate and year impact the socioeconomic, health, and security dependent variables (DVs) in Jordan, whether the marginal mean of each DV in each governorate and in each year is significant, which governorates are similar in difference means of each DV, and whether these DVs vary. The main objectives were to determine the source of variances in DVs, collectively and separately, testing which governorates are similar and which diverge for each DV. The research design was time series and cross-sectional analysis. The main hypotheses are that IVs affect DVs collectively and separately. Multivariate and univariate analyses of variance were carried out to test these hypotheses. The population of 12 governorates in Jordan and the available data of 15 years (2000–2015) accrued from several Jordanian statistical yearbooks. We investigated the effect of two factors of governorate and year on the four DVs of divorce rate, mortality rate, unemployment percentage, and crime rate. All DVs were transformed to multivariate normal distribution. We calculated descriptive statistics for each DV. Based on the multivariate analysis of variance, we found a significant effect in IVs on DVs with p < .001. Based on the univariate analysis, we found a significant effect of IVs on each DV with p < .001, except the effect of the year factor on unemployment was not significant with p = .642. The grand and marginal means of each DV in each governorate and each year were significant based on a 95% confidence interval. Most governorates are not similar in DVs with p < .001. We concluded that the two factors produce significant effects on DVs, collectively and separately. Based on these findings, the government can distribute its financial and physical resources to governorates more efficiently. By identifying the sources of variance that contribute to the variation in DVs, insights can help inform focused variation prevention efforts.

Keywords: ANOVA, crime, divorce, governorate, hypothesis test, Jordan, MANOVA, means, mortality, unemployment, year

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Authors: Zainab Idrees Ahmad, Mahjabeen Qureshi, Zainab Hussain

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Standard precautions are a set of infection control practices used to prevent the transmission of diseases that can be acquired by contact with body fluids, non-intact skin, and mucous membranes. Lack of practice of SPs can result in a considerable increase in morbidity and mortality rates. Medical students (the future physicians) should have the highest knowledge of standard precautions to prevent the spread of nosocomial infections and ensure their safety as well. This study was designed. To assess the knowledge of medical students regarding standard precautions. And explore the attitude of medical students of MBBS in the third, fourth and final year towards standard precautions.: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in the setting of Rawalpindi Medical University, Pakistan including the students of MBBS in their 3rd, 4th and final years. The study duration was from October 2022 to February 2023. The sample size calculated was 282 with a confidence interval of 95%. A questionnaire was structured utilizing the WHO guidelines on SPs assessing knowledge and attitude regarding hand hygiene, needle stick injury, use of gloves and mask, and sharp disposal. A total of 300 responses were received utilizing the technique of non-random convenience sampling. Data was analyzed using the latest version of SPSS.:Knowledge score regarding components of SPs, hand hygiene, and moments of hand hygiene was satisfactory. However, score regarding the use of PPE, needle stick injury, and sharp disposal was low. Almost all the students were compliant with the proper washing of hands but the observation of recommended time length was lacking. Compliance with the use of correct PPE and informing the supervisor upon getting a needle stick injury was low. This study signifies that medical students lack knowledge regarding standard precautions. This is alarming as this can be the vehicle for the spread of nosocomial infections. Proper training should be given to medical students to prevent the spread of hospital-acquired infections.

Keywords: attitude, knowledge, medical students, standard precautions

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Authors: Ebtisam A. Al-Mslemani, Khalid A. Enan, Asmaa Abdelgadier, Nada Assaad, Zaynab Elhussein, Khalid Eltom

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Background: Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) is a zoonotic parasite that can be transmitted from animals to humans, with felids acting as its definitive host. Thus, understanding the epidemiology of this parasite in animal populations is vital to controlling its transmission to humans as well as to other animal groups. Objectives: This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to summarise and analyse reports of T. gondii infection in animal species residing in the Arabian Peninsula. Methods: It was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), with relevant studies being retrieved from MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and ScienceDirect. All articles published in Arabic or English languages between January 2000 and December 2020 were screened for eligibility. The random effects model was used to calculate the pooled prevalence of T. gondii infection in different animal populations which were found to harbour this infection. The critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies designed by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) was used to assess the risk of bias in all included studies. Results: A total of 15 studies were retrieved, reporting prevalence estimates from 4 countries in this region and in 13 animal species. A quantitative meta-analysis estimated a pooled prevalence of 43% in felids [95% confidence interval (CI) = 23-64%, I2 index = 100%], 48% in sheep (95% CI = 27-70%, I2 = 99%) and 21% in camels (95% CI = 7-35%, I2 = 99%). Evidence of possible publication bias was found in both felids and sheep. Conclusions: This meta-analysis estimates a high prevalence of T. gondii infection in animal species that are of high economic and cultural importance to countries of this region. Hence, these findings provide valuable insight to public health authorities as well as economic and animal resources advisors in countries of the Arabian Peninsula.

Keywords: Arabian Peninsula, toxoplasma gondii, animals; meta-analysis, toxoplasmosis

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Authors: Saarah Juman, Ilona Johnson, Stephen Richmond, Brett Duane, Sheelagh Rogers

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Introduction: Researchers suggest that within 50 years or less, the available supply of a range of metals will be exhausted, potentially leading to increases in resource conflict and largescale production shortages. The healthcare, dental and orthodontic sectors will undoubtedly be affected as stainless steel instruments are generally heavily relied on. Although changing orthodontic archwires are unavoidable and necessary to allow orthodontic tooth movement through the progression of an archwire sequence with fixed appliances, they are thought to be manufactured in excess of what is needed. Furthermore, orthodontic archwires require trimming extraorally to allow safe intraoral insertion, thus contributing to unnecessary waste of natural resources. Currently, there is no evidence to support the optimisation of archwire length according to orthodontic fixed appliance stage. As such, this study aims to quantify archwire excess (extraoral archwire trimmings) for different stages of orthodontic fixed appliance treatment. Methodology: This prospective, observational, quantitative study observed trimmings made extraorally against pre-treatment study models by clinicians over a 3-month period. Archwires were categorised into one of three categories (initial aligning, sequence, working/finishing arcwhires) within the orthodontic fixed appliance archwire sequence. Data collection included archwire material composition and the corresponding length and weight of excess archwire. Data was entered using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and imported into statistical software to obtain simple descriptive statistics. Results: Measurements were obtained for a total of 144 archwires. Archwire materials included nickel titanium and stainless steel. All archwires observed required extraorally trimming to allow safe intraoral insertion. The manufactured lengths of orthodontic initial aligning, sequence, and working/finishing arcwhires were at least 31%, 26%, and 39% in excess, respectively. Conclusions: Orthodontic archwires are manufactured to be excessively long at all orthodontic archwire sequence stages. To conserve natural resources, this study’s findings support the optimisation of orthodontic archwire lengths by manufacturers according to the typical stages of an orthodontic archwire sequence.

Keywords: archwire, orthodontics, sustainability, waste

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Authors: Sachil Kumar, Anoop Kumar Verma, Wahid Ali, Uma Shankar Singh

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Globally approximately 55.3 million people die each year. In the India there were 95 lakh annual deaths in 2013. The number of deaths resulted from homicides, suicides and unintentional injuries in the same period was about 5.7 lakh. The ever-increasing crime rate necessitated the development of methods for determining time since death. An erroneous time of death window can lead investigators down the wrong path or possibly focus a case on an innocent suspect. In this regard a research was carried out by analyzing the temperature dependent degradation of a Cardiac Troponin-T protein (cTnT) in the myocardium postmortem as a marker for time since death. Cardiac tissue samples were collected from (n=6) medico-legal autopsies, (in the Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, King George’s Medical University, Lucknow India) after informed consent from the relatives and studied post-mortem degradation by incubation of the cardiac tissue at room temperature (20±2 OC), 12 0C, 25 0C and 37 0C for different time periods ((~5, 26, 50, 84, 132, 157, 180, 205, and 230 hours). The cases included were the subjects of road traffic accidents (RTA) without any prior history of disease who died in the hospital and their exact time of death was known. The analysis involved extraction of the protein, separation by denaturing gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and visualization by Western blot using cTnT specific monoclonal antibodies. The area of the bands within a lane was quantified by scanning and digitizing the image using Gel Doc. The data shows a distinct temporal profile corresponding to the degradation of cTnT by proteases found in cardiac muscle. The disappearance of intact cTnT and the appearance of lower molecular weight bands are easily observed. Western blot data clearly showed the intact protein at 42 kDa, two major (27 kDa, 10kDa) fragments, two additional minor fragments (32 kDa) and formation of low molecular weight fragments as time increases. At 12 0C the intensity of band (intact cTnT) decreased steadily as compared to RT, 25 0C and 37 0C. Overall, both PMI and temperature had a statistically significant effect where the greatest amount of protein breakdown was observed within the first 38 h and at the highest temperature, 37 0C. The combination of high temperature (37 0C) and long Postmortem interval (105.15 hrs) had the most drastic effect on the breakdown of cTnT. If the percent intact cTnT is calculated from the total area integrated within a Western blot lane, then the percent intact cTnT shows a pseudo-first order relationship when plotted against the log of the time postmortem. These plots show a good coefficient of correlation of r = 0.95 (p=0.003) for the regression of the human heart at different temperature conditions. The data presented demonstrates that this technique can provide an extended time range during which Postmortem interval can be more accurately estimated.

Keywords: degradation, postmortem interval, proteolysis, temperature, troponin

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Authors: Ali Mohammadi

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The basis for the construction of any project is a map, a map where the surveyor can determine the coordinates of the points on the ground by using the coordinates and using the total station, projects such as dams, roads, tunnels and pipelines, if the base points are determined using GPS prepared can create challenges for the surveyor to control. First, we will examine some map projection on which the maps are designed, and a summary of their differences and the challenges that surveyors face in order to control them, because in order to build projects, we need real lengths and angles, so we have to use coordinates that provide us with the results of the calculations. We will examine some examples to understand the concept of localization so that the surveyor knows if he is facing a challenge or not and if he is faced with this challenge, how should he solve this problem.

Keywords: UTM, scale factor, cartesian, traverse

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Authors: Hamza A. Pantami, Khozizah Shaari, Intan S. Ismail, Chong C. Min

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Introduction: Tilapia is the second-highest harvested freshwater fish species in Malaysia, available in almost all fish farms and markets. Unfortunately, tilapia culture in Malaysia is highly affected by Aeromonas hydrophila and Streptococcus agalactiae, which affect the production rate and consequently pose a direct negative economic impact. Reliance on drugs to control or reduce bacterial infections has been led to contamination of water bodies and development of drug resistance, as well as gave rise to toxicity issues in downstream fish products. Resorting to vaccines have helped curb the problem to a certain extent, but a more effective solution is still required. Using microalgae-based feed to enhance the fish immunity against bacterial infection offers a promising alternative. Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of Chlorella vulgaris at lower percentage incorporation in feeds for an immune boost of tilapia in a shorter time. Methods: The study was in two phases. The safety concentration studies at 500 mg/kg-1 and the administration of cultured C. vulgaris biomass via incorporation into fish feed for five different groups in three weeks. Group 1 was the control (0% incorporation), whereas group 2, 3, 4 and 5 received 0.625%, 1.25%, 2.5% and 5% incorporation respectively. The parameters evaluated were the blood profile, serum lysozyme activity (SLA), serum bactericidal activity (SBA), phagocytosis activity (PA), respiratory burst activity (RBA), and lymphoproliferation activity (LPA). The data were analyzed via ANOVA using SPSS (version 16). Further testing was done using Tukey’s test. All tests were performed at the 95% confidence interval (p < 0.05). Results: There were no toxic signs in tilapia fish at 500 mg/kg-1. Treated groups showed significantly better immune parameters compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Conclusions: C. vulgaris crude biomass in a fish meal at a lower incorporation level of 5% can increase specific and non-specific immunity in tilapia fish in a shorter time duration.

Keywords: Chlorella vulgaris, hematology profile, immune boost, lymphoproliferation

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Authors: Toledo-Fernandez Aldebaran

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Introduction: One of the least explored cognitive functions in relation with depression is the one related to musical stimuli. Music perception and memory can become impaired as well. The term amusia is used to define a type of agnosia caused by damage to basic processes that creates a general inability to perceive music. Therefore, the main objective is to explore performance-based and self-report deficits in music perception and memory on people with major depressive disorder (MDD). Method: Data was collected through April-October 2021 recruiting people who met the eligibility criteria and using the Montreal Battery of Evaluation of Amusia (MBEA) to evaluate performance-based music perception and memory, along with the module for depression of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview, and the Amusic Dysfunction Inventory (ADI) which evaluates the participants’ self-report concerning their abilities in music perception. Results: 64 participants were evaluated. The main study, referring to analyzing the differences between people with MDD and the control group, only showed one statistical difference on the Interval subtest of the MBEA. No difference was found in the dimensions assessed by the ADI. Conclusion: Deficits in interval perception can be explained by mental fatigue, to which people with depression are more vulnerable, rather than by specific deficits in musical perception and memory associated with depressive disorder. Additionally, significant associations were found between musical deficits as observed by performance-based evidence and music dysfunction according to self-report, which could suggest that some people with depression are capable of detecting these deficits in themselves.

Keywords: depression, amusia, music, perception, memory

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Authors: Zemenu Yohannes

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Introduction: The pandemic overstretched the weak health systems in developing countries, including Ethiopia. This study aims to assess and explore the effect of COVID-19 on antenatal care (ANC) provision. Methods: A concurrent mixed methods study was applied. An interrupted time series design was applied for the quantitative study, and in-depth interviews were implemented for the qualitative research to explore maternity care providers' perceptions of ANC provision during COVID-19. We used routine monthly collected data from the health management information system (HMIS) in fifteen hospitals in the Sidama region, Ethiopia, from March 2019 to February 2020 (12 months) before COVID-19 and from March to August 2020 (6 months) during COVID-19. We imported data into STATA V.17 for analysis. ANC provision's mean monthly incidence rate ratio (IRR) was calculated using Poisson regression with a 95% confidence interval. The qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis. Findings from quantitative and qualitative elements were integrated with a contiguous approach. Results: Our findings indicate the rate of ANC provision significantly decreased in the first six months of COVID-19. This study has three identified main themes: barriers to ANC provision, inadequate COVID-19 prevention approach, and delay in providing ANC. Conclusion and recommendation: Based on our findings, the pandemic affected ANC provision in the study area. The health bureau and stakeholders should take a novel and sustainable approach to prevent future pandemics. The health bureau and hospital administrators should establish a task force that relies on financial self-reliance to close gaps in future pandemics of medical supply shortages. Pregnant women should receive their care promptly from maternity care providers. In order to foster contact and avoid discrimination the future pandemics, hospital administrators should set up a platform for community members and maternity care providers.

Keywords: ANC provision, COVID-19, mixed methods study, Ethiopia

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Authors: Abdelghani Boucheham, Ahcene Karaali, Amar Manseri

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Nanostructured Titania layers formed on the surface of titanium and titanium alloys by anodic oxidation play an important role in the enhancement of their biocompatibility and osseointegration in the human body. In the current work, highly ordered titania nanotube array films were elaborated on Ti₆Al₄V medical grade alloys in organic electrolyte containing ethylene glycol, 0.2 wt. % NH₄F and 4 vol. % H₂O at an applied potential of 60 V for different durations. The diameters, lengths and wall thicknesses of the obtained nanotubes were characterized by scanning electronic microscopy (SEM).

Keywords: anodization, dental implants, titania nanotubes, titanium alloys, SEM

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Authors: Huei Lin Lee, Wee Sim Choo

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The effects of blanching, boiling and steaming on the ascorbic acid content, total phenolic content and colour in cauliflower (Brassica oleraceavar. Botrytis) was investigated. It was found that blanching was the best thermal processing to be applied on cauliflower compared to boiling and steaming processes. Blanching and steaming processes on cauliflower retained most of the ascorbic acid content (AAC) compared to those of boiling. As for the total phenolic content (TPC), blanching process retained a higher TPC in cauliflower compared to those of boiling and steaming processes. There were no significant differences between the TPC of boiled and steamed cauliflowers. As for the colour measurement, there were no significant differences in the colour of the cauliflower at different lead time (after processing to the point of consumption) of 30 minutes interval up to 3 hours but there were slight variations in L*, a*, and b* values among the thermal processed cauliflowers (blanched, boiled and steamed). The cauliflowers in this study were found to give a desirable white colour (L* value in the range of 77-83) in all the three thermal processes (blanching, boiling and steaming). There was no significant difference on the effect of lead time (30-minutes interval up to 3 hours) in raw and all the three thermal processed (blanched, boiled and steamed) cauliflowers.

Keywords: ascorbic acid, cauliflower, colour, phenolics

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Authors: Zemirline Adel, Ouali Mohammed, Mahieddine Ali

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The FOSDT (First Order Shear Deformation Theory) is taking into consideration to study the static behavior of a bimorph beam, with a delamination zone between the upper and the lower layer. The effect of limit conditions and lengths of the delamination zone are presented in this paper, with a PVDF piezoelectric material application. A FEM “Finite Element Method” is used to discretize the beam. In the axial displacement, a displacement field appears in the debonded zone with inverse effect between the upper and the lower layer was observed.

Keywords: static, piezoelectricity, beam, delamination

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Authors: Tharsinithevy Kirupananthan, Thivahary Geretharan

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Since creation of agricultural enterprises going to reflect the micro and macro level development of Sri Lanka, it is vey important to study the entrepreneurial trends of Agricultural Undergraduates. Likert scale scoring method was used to assess the responses of involvement, Role model effect, aware of demands, confidence and willingness. 37.8% were strongly agreed to do full time business. The average score for to do agriculture businesses were between agree and strongly agree. The average scores for role model effects were less than agree. Average score for aware of needs of society was less than agree. 75.7% of them were able to identify the demands of the society. The demands identified were human capital, self sufficient domestic production, safe and nutritional foods. The confidence of having enough skills score was less than agree. 64.1% of them were owned special skills to carry out entrepreneurial activities. Such skills were possession of different human capitals management skills. The willingness responses scores were more than agree. 61.5% of them were discussed their business plan. Their dream plans were development of new food products, Quality planting materials, harmless method of cultivation and floricultural industry. Those were supported by government policies and other related organizations.

Keywords: agricultural undergraduates, entrepreneurial trends, likert scale Sri Lanka

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Authors: Yogita Tulsian, R. S. Gupta, K. F. Laserson

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Background: Delays in the diagnosis and treatment of TB facilitates disease transmission in the community, so we conducted a study to evaluate the burden of and risk factors for delay in TB diagnosis and initiation of TB treatment among patients in the private and public sectors in Udaipur district, Rajasthan, India. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 100 new sputum-positive TB. Patients were interviewed in the intensive phase of treatment September 2013-November 2013 Long total diagnosis delay (TDD) was defined as a time interval between first symptom to confirmed diagnosis > 30 days. Long health treatment delay (HTD) was defined as a time interval between confirmed diagnosis to treatment initiation > 7 days. Results: We observed a median TDD of 55 days (range: 7-136 days) in the public sector and of 92 days (11-380 days) in the private sector. Long TDD in the private sector was significantly associated with middle-higher socio-economic status (Risk Ratio (RR): 2;95% CI: 1.3-3). The reasons reported from the private sector for long TDD were suspect TB patients not advised for sputum examination (RR: 42; 95% CI:2.6-660), practise of self-medication (RR: 17.4; 95% CI: 1.1-267), or lack of awareness (RR: 9.7;95% CI: 0.6-145). The median HTD in the public sector was 3 days (range: 0-14 days), and in the private sector, 2 days (range: 0-11 days) (non-significant difference). Conclusions: Long TDD in private sector may be improved through sputum referral for all suspect TB cases and better education to all regarding TB.

Keywords: diagnosis delay, treatment delay, privatesector, public sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Soofia Malik

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The purpose of this study is to develop an instrument to measure undergraduate students’ attitudes toward mathematics (MAT) and to assess the data collected from the instrument for validity and reliability. The instrument is developed using five subscales: anxiety, enjoyment, self-confidence, value, and technology. The technology dimension is added as the fifth subscale of attitude toward mathematics because of the recent trend of incorporating online homework in mathematics courses as well as due to heavy reliance of higher education on using online learning management systems, such as Blackboard and Moodle. The sample consists of 163 (M = 82, F = 81) undergraduates enrolled in College Algebra course in the summer 2017 semester at a university in the USA. The data is analyzed to answer the research question: if and how do undergraduate students’ attitudes toward mathematics load using Principal Components Analysis (PCA)? As a result of PCA, three subscales emerged namely: anxiety/self-confidence scale, enjoyment, and value scale. After deleting the last five items or the last two subscales from the initial MAT scale, the Cronbach’s alpha was recalculated using the scores from 20 items and was found to be α = .95. It is important to note that the reliability of the initial MAT form was α = .93. This means that employing the final MAT survey form would yield consistent results in repeated uses. The final MAT form is, therefore, more reliable as compared to the initial MAT form.

Keywords: college algebra, Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient, Principal Components Analysis, PCA, technology in mathematics

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Authors: Luna Degife, Desalegn Belay, Yoseph Worku, Tigist Tesfaye, Assefa Tufa, Abyot Bekele, Zegeye Hailemariam, Abay Hagos

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Half of the world’s population is at risk of Dengue Fever (DF), a highly under-recognized and underreported mosquito-borne viral disease with high prevalence in the tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, an estimated 50 to 200 million cases and 20, 000 DF deaths occur annually as per the world health organization report. In Ethiopia, the first outbreak occurred in 2013 in Diredawa administration city. Afterward, three outbreaks have been reported from the eastern part of the country. We received a report of the fifth DF outbreak for Ethiopia and the second for Diredawa city on October 4, 2015. We conducted the investigation to confirm the outbreak, identify the risk factors for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease and implement control measures. We conducted un- matched case-control study and defined a suspected DF case as any person with fever of 2-7 days and 2 or more of the following: a headache, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, or bleeding from any part of the body. Controls were residents of Diredawa city without DF symptoms. We interviewed 70 Cases and 140 controls from all health facilities in Diredawa city from October 7 to 15; 2015. Epi Info version 7.1.5.0 was used to analyze the data and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors for DF. Sixty-nine blood samples were collected for Laboratory confirmation.The mean age for cases was 23.7±9.5 standard deviation (SD) and for controls 31.2±13 SD. Close contact with DF patient (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.36, 95% confidence interval(CI): 2.75-10.44), nonuse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.06-7.08) and availability of stagnant water in the village (AOR=3.61, 95% CI:1.31-9.93) were independent risk factors associated with higher rates of the disease. Forty-two samples were tested positive. Endemicity of DF is becoming a concern for Diredawa city after the first outbreak. Therefore, effective vector control activities need to be part of long-term preventive measures.

Keywords: dengue fever, Diredawa, outbreak, risk factors, second

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Hacer Kobya Bulut, Kıymet Yeşilçiçek Çalık, Birsel Canan Demirbağ, Hacer Erdöl, Songül Aktaş

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Introduction: As an expression of an emotion which always exists in life, crying is regarded as one of the problematic behaviors of patients by nurses. Towards such patients, nurses may exhibit emotional and behavioral reactions such as feeling helpless, anger, indifferent, defense, and opposition. However crying either meets a need, reduces the tension to cope with problems or helps patient to gain strength. Therefore, nurses must accept that crying is a normal mechanism that reduces emotional tension and should approach a crying patient accordingly. Objective: This study was carried out to evaluate the communicational behaviors of the nurses towards ‘crying patient’. Methods: This descriptive study was conducted with the nurses working at a university hospital in a city in the Eastern Black Sea in June-September 2015. The entire universe was tried to be reached without sampling. 90% of the population was reached and the study was completed with 309 nurses who volunteered to participate in the study. Data were collected through a questionnaire which was prepared reviewing the literature by researchers. Data were evaluated in SPSS analysis program using percentages, numbers and chi-square test with the 95% confidence interval and p <0.05significance level. Findings: The findings showed that the average age of nurses was 31.52 ± 7.96, work experience was 10:09 ± 7.69 and only 22.7% had training about ‘approach to crying patient’ during their education. 97.1% of the nurses often faced with crying patients in their professional lives, 62.8% stated that they faced crying women patients. When they see crying patients, 84.8% of the nurses ‘do not want the patient to cry’, 80.9% wonder ‘why they are crying’, % 79.6 ‘feel uneasiness’,% 79.3 ‘feel sorry’ and 41.4% ‘ feel helpless’. The question ‘Why do you think the patient is crying?’ was answered by 93.5% nurses as ‘they are suffering’, by 86.1% ‘they are helpless’, 80.9% ‘they are sad’, 79.6% ‘they need help’, 54.4% ‘because they feel inadequate,’ and 44.7% ‘they fail to control their crying behavior. ‘How do you approach to your patient when she/he is crying?’ question was answered by 82.5% of nurses as ‘I would console’, 77.3% as ‘I would ask the reason’, 63.1% as ‘I would try to stop her from crying’ all of which are actually inappropriate nursing approaches. However, 92.2% of the nurses stated that ‘I do not judge the crying patient’, ‘87.1% said ‘I allocate time to crying patients’ and 85.8% said ‘ I ask patient whether they want to cry alone’. The study showed that educational background and work experience of the nurses affected the appropriate approach to crying patients (P <0.05). Conclusion: As a result of the study, it was found out that nurses do not want patients to cry, so they exhibit inappropriate approach such as consoling the patients and they have difficulty in approaching crying patients.

Keywords: approach to patient, communication, crying patient, nurse, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Nasrin Amirrajab, Yasaman Razavi Ghahfarokhi, Zahra Tootak, Maryam Hadian, Fatemeh Abooali Shamshiri

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Urinary tract infections (UTIs) have been reported in children with nephrotic syndrome. However, the only causes for the infection reported to date are bacteria, but not many prior reported occurrences of fungi or yeast as causative organisms. Hence, the present study aimed to describe the epidemiology of urinary tract fungal infections in a tertiary care pediatric. A single-center cross-sectional study was conducted at the nephrology ward of Aboozar Pediatric Hospital between March 21, 2021, and April 28, 2022. Urine was collected aseptically from children, inoculated onto culture media, and incubated at 37 °C for 18–48 hours. Yeast was identified following standard procedures. Antifungal susceptibility testing was determined by the disk diffusion method according to the CLSI guideline. Descriptive statistics and logistical regressions were used to estimate the crude ratio with a 95% confidence interval. P-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Among 68 individuals referred to the mycology lab, the result of direct examination and culture of all patients approved for C.albicans. Of these, 38 individuals (55.8%) were male, and 30 (44.2%) were female. The patients' age ranges were between one month and an 18-year-old. In the study of infection intensity, the patients were classified into three levels such as few (73.5%), moderate (20.6%), and many (5.9%). In the present study, all the patients were sensitive to Posaconazole. Also, the eagle effect was found in Amphotericin B, Voriconazole, and Fluconazole with frequencies of 91.7%, 91.7%, and 83%, respectively. In addition, just 8.3% of isolates were resistant to Itraconazole. It has not shown resistance in other mentioned medicine. The patients showed an intermediate response to Itraconazole (91.7%), Fluconazole (17%), Voriconazole (8.3%), and Amphotericin B (8.3%). There is a high prevalence of yeast infections in children with suspected UTIs. Also, boys are more likely to get yeast infections, and the severity of the infection is higher than girls. The present study demonstrated the importance of diagnosing and selecting the appropriate drug for urinary tract fungal infections in hospitalized children.

Keywords: urinary tract infections, children, fungal infections, yeast, antifungal susceptibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Jatin Gupta, Bishakh Bhattacharya

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With the aging process, many people start suffering from the problem of weak limbs resulting in mobility disorders and loss of sensory and motor function of limbs. Wearable robotic devices are viable solutions to help people suffering from these issues by augmenting their strength. These robotic devices, popularly known as exoskeletons aides user by providing external power and controlling the dynamics so as to achieve desired motion. Present work studies a simplified dynamic model of the human gait. A four link open chain kinematic model is developed to describe the dynamics of Single Support Phase (SSP) of the human gait cycle. The dynamic model is developed integrating mathematical models of the motion of inverted and triple pendulums. Stance leg is modeled as inverted pendulum having single degree of freedom and swing leg as triple pendulum having three degrees of freedom viz. thigh, knee, and ankle joints. The kinematic model is formulated using forward kinematics approach. Lagrangian approach is used to formulate governing dynamic equation of the model. For a system of nonlinear differential equations, numerical method is employed to obtain system response. Reference trajectory is generated using human body simulator, LifeMOD. For optimal mechanical design and controller design of exoskeleton system, it is imperative to study parameter sensitivity of the system. Six different parameters viz. thigh, shank, and foot masses and lengths are varied from 85% to 115% of the original value for the present work. It is observed that hip joint of swing leg is the most sensitive and ankle joint of swing leg is the least sensitive one. Changing link lengths causes more deviation in system response than link masses. Also, shank length and thigh mass are most sensitive parameters. Finally, the present study gives an insight on different factors that should be considered while designing a lower extremity exoskeleton.

Keywords: lower limb exoskeleton, multibody dynamics, energy based formulation, optimal design

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: D. P. N. De Silva, N. P. P. Liyanage

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Zebrafish (Danio rerio) in the family Cyprinidae, is a tropical freshwater fish widely used as a model organism in scientific research. Use of effective and economical anaesthetic is very important when handling fish. Clove oil (active ingredient: eugenol) was identified as a natural product which is safer and economical compared to synthetic chemicals like methanesulfonate (MS-222). Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify the most effective dosage of clove oil solution as an anaesthetic on mature Zebrafish. Clove oil solution was prepared by mixing pure clove oil with 94% ethanol at a ratio of 1:9 respectively. From that solution, different volumes were selected as (0.4 ml, 0.6 ml and 0.8 ml) and dissolved in one liter of conditioned water (dosages : 0.4 ml/L, 0.6 ml/L and 0.8 ml/L). Water quality parameters (pH, temperature and conductivity) were measured before and after adding clove oil solution. Mature Zebrafish with similar standard length (2.76 ± 0.1 cm) and weight (0.524 ± 0.1 g) were selected for this experiment. Time taken for loss of equilibrium (initiation phase) and complete loss of movements including opercular movement (anaesthetic phase) were measured. To detect the efficacy on anaesthetic recovery, time taken to begin opercular movements (initiation of recovery phase) until swimming (post anaesthetic phase) were observed. The results obtained were analyzed according to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukeys’ method using SPSS version 17.0 at 95% confidence interval (p<0.5). According to the results, there was no significant difference at the initiation phase of anaesthesia in all three doses though the time taken was varied from 0.14 to 0.41 minutes. Mean value of the time taken to complete the anaesthetic phase at 0.4 ml/L dosage was significantly different with 0.6 ml/L and 0.8 ml/L dosages independently (p=0.01). There was no significant difference among recovery times at all dosages but 0.8 ml/L dosage took longer time compared to 0.6 ml/L dosage. The water quality parameters (pH and temperature) were stable throughout the experiment except conductivity, which increased with the higher dosage. In conclusion, the best dosage need to anaesthetize Zebrafish using clove oil solution was 0.6 ml/L due to its fast initiation of anaesthesia and quick recovery compared to the other two dosages. Therefore clove oil can be used as a good substitute for synthetic anaesthetics because of its efficacy at a lower dosage with higher safety at a low cost.

Keywords: anaesthetics, clove oil, zebrafish, Cyprinidae

Procedia PDF Downloads 690

Authors: Ahmed Sami Hammami, Mohamed Jellazi

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Background: The aim of the study is to evaluate the magnitude of different psychological outcomes among Tunisian health care professionals (HCP) during the COVID-19 pandemic and to identify the associated factors. Methods: HCP completed a cross-sectional questionnaire from April 4th to April, 28th 2020. The survey collected demographic information, factors that may interfere with the psychological outcomes, behavior changes and mental health measurements. The latter was assessed through 3 scales; the 7-item questions Insomnia Severity Index, the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire and the 2-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify factors associated with psychological outcomes. Results: A total of 503 HCP successfully completed the survey; among those, n=493 consented to enroll in the study, 411 [83.4%] were physicians, 323 [64.2%] were women and 271 [55%] had a second-line working position. A significant proportion of HCP had anxiety 35.7%, depression 35.1% and insomnia 23.7%. Females, those with psychiatric history and those using public transport exhibited the highest proportions for overall symptoms compared to other groups e.g., depression among females vs. males: 44,9% vs. 18,2%, P=0.00. Those with a previous medical history and nurses, had more anxiety and insomnia compared to other groups e.g. anxiety among nurses vs. interns/residents vs. attending 45,1% vs 36,1% vs 27,5%; p=0.04. Multivariable logistic regression showed that female gender was a risk factor for all psychological outcomes e.g. female sex increased the odds of anxiety by 2.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1, 78-4, 60; P=0.00, whereas having a psychiatric history was a risk factor for both anxiety and insomnia. (e.g. for insomnia OR=2,86; 95% [CI], 1,78-4,60; P=0.00), Having protective equipment was associated with lower risk for depression (OR=0,41; 95% CI, 0,27-0,62; P=0.00) and anxiety. Physical activity was also protective against depression and anxiety (OR=0,41, 95% CI, 0,25-0,67, P=0.00). Conclusion: Psychological symptoms are usually undervalued among HCP, though the COVID-19 pandemic played a major role in exacerbating this burden. Prompt psychological support should be endorsed and simple measures such as physical activity and ensuring the necessary protection are paramount to improve mental health outcomes and the quality of care provided to patients.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, health care professionals, mental health, protective factors, psychological symptoms, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Alper T. Celebi, Ali Beskok

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Electroosmotic (EO) slip flows in nanochannels are investigated using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and the results are compared with analytical solution of Poisson-Boltzmann and Stokes (PB-S) equations with slip contribution. The ultimate objective of this study is to show that well-known continuum flow model can accurately predict the EO velocity profiles in nanochannels using the slip lengths and apparent viscosities obtained from force-driven flow simulations performed at various liquid-wall interaction strengths. EO flow of aqueous NaCl solution in silicon nanochannels are simulated under realistic electrochemical conditions within the validity region of Poisson-Boltzmann theory. A physical surface charge density is determined for nanochannels based on dissociations of silanol functional groups on channel surfaces at known salt concentration, temperature and local pH. First, we present results of density profiles and ion distributions by equilibrium MD simulations, ensuring that the desired thermodynamic state and ionic conditions are satisfied. Next, force-driven nanochannel flow simulations are performed to predict the apparent viscosity of ionic solution between charged surfaces and slip lengths. Parabolic velocity profiles obtained from force-driven flow simulations are fitted to a second-order polynomial equation, where viscosity and slip lengths are quantified by comparing the coefficients of the fitted equation with continuum flow model. Presence of charged surface increases the viscosity of ionic solution while the velocity-slip at wall decreases. Afterwards, EO flow simulations are carried out under uniform electric field for different liquid-wall interaction strengths. Velocity profiles present finite slips near walls, followed with a conventional viscous flow profile in the electrical double layer that reaches a bulk flow region in the center of the channel. The EO flow enhances with increased slip at the walls, which depends on wall-liquid interaction strength and the surface charge. MD velocity profiles are compared with the predictions from analytical solutions of the slip modified PB-S equation, where the slip length and apparent viscosity values are obtained from force-driven flow simulations in charged silicon nano-channels. Our MD results show good agreements with the analytical solutions at various slip conditions, verifying the validity of PB-S equation in nanochannels as small as 3.5 nm. In addition, the continuum model normalizes slip length with the Debye length instead of the channel height, which implies that enhancement in EO flows is independent of the channel height. Further MD simulations performed at different channel heights also shows that the flow enhancement due to slip is independent of the channel height. This is important because slip enhanced EO flow is observable even in micro-channels experiments by using a hydrophobic channel with large slip and high conductivity solutions with small Debye length. The present study provides an advanced understanding of EO flows in nanochannels. Correct characterization of nanoscale EO slip flow is crucial to discover the extent of well-known continuum models, which is required for various applications spanning from ion separation to drug delivery and bio-fluidic analysis.

Keywords: electroosmotic flow, molecular dynamics, slip length, velocity-slip

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: Chinwe Pearl Poly-Mbah, Evelyn Obioma, Juliet Amajuoyi

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The investigation here reported examined growth and yield responses of Cucumber to manure rates in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria. Fruit vegetables are widely cultivated and produced in Northern Nigeria but greatly consumed in Southern Nigeria where cucumbers command high demand and price but are minimally cultivated. Unfortunately, farmers in northern Nigeria incur lots of losses because cucumber is a perishable vegetable and is transported all the way from the northern Nigeria where cucumbers are produced to Southern Nigeria where cucumbers are consumed, hence the high cost of cucumber fruits in Southern Nigeria. There is a need, therefore, to evolve packages that will enhance cucumber production in Southern Nigeria. The main objective of this study was to examine the effects of poultry manure rates on the growth and yield of cucumber in Owerri, South Eastern Nigeria. Specifically, this study was designed to assess the effect of poultry manure rates on number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length/plant, leaf area per plant and the number of leaves produced per plant. The design used for the experiment was Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three blocks (replications). Treatment consisted of four rates of well-decomposed poultry manure at the rate of 0 tons/ha, 2 tons/ha, 4 tons/ha and 6 tons/ha. Data were collected on number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length per plant at two weeks interval, leaf number per plant at two weeks interval, leaf area per plant at two weeks interval, number of fruits produced per plant, and fresh weight of fruits per plant at harvest. Results from the analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that there were highly significant effects (P=0.05) of poultry manure on growth and yield parameters studied which include number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length per plant, leaf number per plant, leaf area per plant, fruit number and fruit weight per plant such that increase in poultry manure rates lead to increase in growth and yield parameters studied. Therefore, the null hypothesis (Ho) was rejected, while the alternative hypothesis was accepted. Farmers should be made to know that growing cucumber with poultry manure in southeastern Nigeria agro ecology is a successful enterprise

Keywords: cucumber, effects, growth and yield, manure

Procedia PDF Downloads 204