Search results for: combined forecast

Authors: Wen Hsin Hsu, Pin Lin

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Objective: Thirst discomfort is the most common yet often overlooked symptom in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), with an incidence rate of 69.8%. If not properly cared for, it can easily lead to irritability, affect sleep quality, and increase the incidence of delirium, thereby extending the length of hospital stay. Research points out that the sensation of coldness is an effective strategy to alleviate thirst. Using a combined care approach for thirst can prolong the sensation of coldness in the mouth and reduce thirst discomfort. Therefore, it needs to be further analyzed and its effectiveness reviewed. Methods: This study uses systematic literature review and meta-analysis methodologies and searched databases including PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, CINAHL, and two Chinese databases (CEPS and CJTD) based on keywords. JBI was used to appraise the quality of the literature. RevMen 5.4 software package was used, and Fix Effect Model was applied for data analysis. We selected experimental articles, including those in English and Chinese, that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Three research articles were included in total, with a sample size of 416 people. Two were randomized controlled trials, and one was a quasi-experimental design. Results: The results show that the combined care for thirst, which includes ice water spray or oral swab wipes, menthol mouthwash, and lip balm, can significantly relieve thirst intensity MD=-1.36 (3 studies, 95% CI (-1.77, -0.95), p <0.001) and thirst distress MD=-0.71 (2 studies, 95% CI (-1.32, -0.10), p =0.02). Therefore, it is recommended that medical staff identify high-risk groups for thirst early on. Implications for Practice: For patients who cannot eat orally, providing combined care for thirst can increase oral comfort and improve the quality of care.

Keywords: thirst bundle care, intensive care units, meta-analysis, ice water spray, menthol

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

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We proposed algorithms for: estimation of parameters fBm (volatility and Hurst exponent) and for the approximation of random time series by functional of fBm. We proved the consistency of the estimators, which constitute the above algorithms, and proved the optimal forecast of approximated time series. The adequacy of estimation algorithms, approximation, and forecasting is proved by numerical experiment. During the process of creating software, the system has been created, which is displayed by the hierarchical structure. The comparative analysis of proposed algorithms with the other methods gives evidence of the advantage of approximation method. The results can be used to develop methods for the analysis and modeling of time series describing the economic, physical, biological and other processes.

Keywords: mathematical model, random process, Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Lei Ren, Michael Hartnett, Stephen Nash

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The abundant measured surface current from HF radar system in coastal area is assimilated into model to improve the modeling forecasting ability. A simple sequential data assimilation scheme, Direct Insertion (DI), is applied to update model forecast states. The influence of Direct Insertion data assimilation over time is analyzed at one reference point. Vector maps of surface current from models are compared with HF radar measurements. Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE) between modeling results and HF radar measurements is calculated during the last four days with no data assimilation.

Keywords: data assimilation, CODAR, HF radar, surface current, direct insertion

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Authors: Alexander Gretchenko, Liudmila Goncharenko, Sergey Sybachin

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This article summarizes the history of the discovery of N.D. Kondratiev of large cycles of economic conditions, as well as the creation and justification of the theory of innovation-cyclical economic development of Kondratiev-Schumpeter. An analysis of it in modern conditions is providing. The main conclusion in this article is that in general terms today it can be argued that the Kondratiev-Schumpeter theory is sufficiently substantiated. Further, the possibility of making a forecast of the development of the economic situation in the direction of applying this theory in practice, which demonstrate its effectiveness, is considered.

Keywords: Kondratiev's big cycles of economic conjuncture, Schumpeter's theory of innovative economic development, long-term cyclical forecasting, dating of Kondratiev cycles

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Wala Abou Saoud, Aymen Amine Assadi, Monia Guiza, Abdelkrim Bouzaza, Wael Aboussaoud, Abdelmottaleb Ouederni, Dominique Wolbert

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Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) constitute one of the most important families of chemicals involved in atmospheric pollution, causing damage to the environment and human health, and need, consequently, to be eliminated. Among the promising technologies, dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma - photocatalysis coupling reveals very interesting prospects in terms of process synergy of compounds mineralization’s, with low energy consumption. In this study, the removal of organic compounds such butyraldehyde (BUTY) and dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) (exhaust gasses from animal quartering centers.) in air mixture using DBD plasma coupled with photocatalysis was tested, in order to determine whether or not synergy effect was present. The removal efficiency of these pollutants, a selectivity of CO₂ and CO, and byproducts formation such as ozone formation were investigated in order to evaluate the performance of the combined process. For this purpose, a series of experiments were carried out in a continuous reactor. Many operating parameters were also investigated such as the specific energy of discharge, the inlet concentration of pollutant and the flowrate. It appears from this study that, the performance of the process has enhanced and a synergetic effect is observed. In fact, we note an enhancement of 10 % on removal efficiency. It is interesting to note that the combined system leads to better CO₂ selectivity than for plasma. Consequently, intermediates by-products have been reduced due to various other species (O•, N, OH•, O₂•-, O₃, NO₂, NOx, etc.). Additionally, the behavior of combining DBD plasma and photocatalysis has shown that the ozone can be easily also decomposed in presence of photocatalyst.

Keywords: combined process, DBD plasma, photocatalysis, pilot scale, synergetic effect, VOCs

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Authors: Badr M. Alshammari, T. Guesmi

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In recent years, the combined economic and emission power dispatch is one of the main problems of electrical power system. It aims to schedule the power generation of generators in order to minimize cost production and emission of harmful gases caused by fossil-fueled thermal units such as CO, CO₂, NO_x, and SO₂. To solve this complicated multi-objective problem, an improved version of the particle swarm optimization technique that includes non-dominated sorting concept has been proposed. Valve point loading effects and system losses have been considered. The three-unit and ten-unit benchmark systems have been used to show the effectiveness of the suggested optimization technique for solving this kind of nonconvex problem. The simulation results have been compared with those obtained using genetic algorithm based method. Comparison results show that the proposed approach can provide a higher quality solution with better performance.

Keywords: power dispatch, valve point loading effects, multiobjective optimization, Pareto solutions

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Authors: Ajmal Khan Kassi, Humayun Javed, Syed Abdul Qadeem

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The study was conducted to find out the best management practices against American bollworm on Okra variety Arka Anamika during 2016. The three different management practices viz. Release of Trichogramma chilonis, hoeing and weeding, clipping and lufenuron insect growth regulator (IGR) which were tested individually and with all possible combinations for the controlling of American bollworm at 3 diverse areas viz. University Research Farm Koont, NARC and Farmer Field Taxila. All the treatment combinations regarding damage of fruit showed significant results. The minimum fruit infestation i.e. 3.20% and 3.58% was recorded with combined treatment (i.e. T. chilonis + hoeing + weeding + lufenuron) in two different localities. This combined treatment also resulted in maximum yield at NARC and Taxila i.e. 57.67 and 62.66 q/ha respectively. This treatment gave the best results to manage H. armigera. On the basis of different integrated pest management techniques, Arka Anamika variety proved to be comparatively resistant against H. armigera in different localities. So this variety is recommended for the cultivation in Pothwar region to get maximum yield.

Keywords: management, american bollworm, arka anamika, okra

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Authors: Soo-yeon Seo, Su-jin Jung

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In recent years, the need for remodeling of many apartments built 30 years ago is increasing. Therefore, researches on the structural reinforcement technology of existing apartments have been conducted. On the other hand, there is a growing need for research on the existing underground space expansion technology to expand the parking space required for remodeling. When expanding an existing underground space, for earthworks, an earth retaining wall must be installed between the existing apartment building and it. In order to maximize the possible underground space, it is necessary to minimize the thickness of the portion of earth retaining wall and underground basement wall. In this manner, the calculation procedure is studied for the evaluation of shear strength of the composite basement wall corresponding to shear span-to-depth ratio in this study. As a result, it was shown that the proposed calculation procedure can be used to evaluate the shear strength of the composite basement wall as safe. On the other hand, when shear span-to-depth ratio is small, shear strength is very underestimated.

Keywords: underground space expansion, combined structure, temporary retaining wall, basement wall, shear connectors

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Mantai Chen, Johnny Ching Ming Ho

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The stress-strain relationship of concrete under flexure is one of the essential parameters in assessing ultimate flexural strength capacity of RC beams. Currently, the concrete stress-strain curve in flexure is obtained by incorporating a constant scale-down factor of 0.85 in the uniaxial stress-strain curve. However, it was revealed that strain gradient would improve the maximum concrete stress under flexure and concrete stress-strain curve is strain gradient dependent. Based on the strain-gradient-dependent concrete stress-strain curve, the investigation of the combined effects of strain gradient and concrete strength on flexural strength of RC beams was extended to high strength concrete up to 100 MPa by theoretical analysis. As an extension and application of the authors’ previous study, a new flexural strength design method incorporating the combined effects of strain gradient and concrete strength is developed. A set of equivalent rectangular concrete stress block parameters is proposed and applied to produce a series of design charts showing that the flexural strength of RC beams are improved with strain gradient effect considered.

Keywords: beams, equivalent concrete stress block, flexural strength, strain gradient

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Authors: H. H. Goh, K. C. Goh, W. N. Z. S. Wan Sukri, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok

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Endowed of renewable energy sources (RES) are the advantages of ASEAN, but they are using a low amount of RES only to generate electricity because their primary energy sources are fossil and coal. The cost of purchasing fossil and coal is cheaper now, but it might be expensive soon, as it will be depleted sooner and after. ASEAN showed that the RES are convenient to be implemented. Some country in ASEAN has huge renewable energy sources potential and use. The primary aim of this project is to assist ASEAN countries in preparing the renewable energy and to guide the policies for RES in the more upright direction. The Green-Y model will help ASEAN government to study and forecast the economic concept, including feed-in tariff.

Keywords: ASEAN RES, Renewable Energy, RES Policies, RES Potential, RES Utilization

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Authors: Adil Rasheed, Mandar Tabib

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The paper describes the ability of a high-resolution Computational Fluid Dynamics model to predict terrain-induced turbulence and wind shear close to the ground. Various sensitivity studies to choose the optimal simulation setup for modeling the flow characteristics in a complex terrain are presented. The capabilities of the model are demonstrated by applying it to the Sandnessjøen Airport, Stokka in Norway, an airport that is located in a mountainous area. The model is able to forecast turbulence in real time and trigger an alert when atmospheric conditions might result in high wind shear and turbulence.

Keywords: aviation safety, terrain-induced turbulence, atmospheric flow, alert system

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Authors: Daniil Karzanov

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This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

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Authors: Rui Sang, Fei Deng, Alexander Engel, Ewa M. Goldys, Wei Deng

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In this study, we brought together X-ray induced photodynamic therapy (X-PDT) and chemo-drug (5-FU) for the treatment on colorectal cancer cells. This was achieved by developing a lipid-polymer hybrid nanoparticle delivery system (FA-LPNPs-VP-5-FU). It was prepared by incorporating a photosensitizer (verteporfin), chemotherapy drug (5-FU), and a targeting moiety (folic acid) into one platform. The average size of these nanoparticles was around 100 nm with low polydispersity. When exposed to clinical doses of 4 Gy X-ray radiation, FA-LPNPs-VP-5-FU generated sufficient amounts of reactive oxygen species, triggering the apoptosis and necrosis pathway of cancer cells. Our combined X-PDT and chemo-drug strategy was effective in inhibiting cancer cells’ growth and proliferation. Cell cycle analyses revealed that our treatment induced G2/M and S phase arrest in HCT116 cells. Our results indicate that this combined treatment provides better antitumour effect in colorectal cancer cells than each of these modalities alone. This may offer a novel approach for effective colorectal cancer treatment with reduced off-target effect and drug toxicity.

Keywords: pdt, targeted lipid-polymer nanoparticles, verteporfin, colorectal cancer

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Authors: Elena Pummer, Holger Schuettrumpf

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By today underground pumped storage plants as an outstanding alternative for classical pumped storage plants do not exist. They are needed to ensure the required balance between production and demand of energy. As a short to medium term storage pumped storage plants have been used economically over a long period of time, but their expansion is limited locally. The reasons are in particular the required topography and the extensive human land use. Through the use of underground reservoirs instead of surface lakes expansion options could be increased. Fulfilling the same functions, several hydrodynamic processes result in the specific design of the underground reservoirs and must be implemented in the planning process of such systems. A combined 3D numerical and experimental approach leads to currently unknown results about the occurring wave types and their behavior in dependence of different design and operating criteria. For the 3D numerical simulations, OpenFOAM was used and combined with an experimental approach in the laboratory of the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management at RWTH Aachen University, Germany. Using the finite-volume method and an explicit time discretization, a RANS-Simulation (k-ε) has been run. Convergence analyses for different time discretization, different meshes etc. and clear comparisons between both approaches lead to the result, that the numerical and experimental models can be combined and used as hybrid model. Undular bores partly with secondary waves and breaking bores occurred in the underground reservoir. Different water levels and discharges change the global effects, defined as the time-dependent average of the water level as well as the local processes, defined as the single, local hydrodynamic processes (water waves). Design criteria, like branches, directional changes, changes in cross-section or bottom slope, as well as changes in roughness have a great effect on the local processes, the global effects remain unaffected. Design calculations for underground pumped storage plants were developed on the basis of existing formulae and the results of the hybrid approach. Using the design calculations reservoirs heights as well as oscillation periods can be determined and lead to the knowledge of construction and operation possibilities of the plants. Consequently, future plants can be hydraulically optimized applying the design calculations on the local boundary conditions.

Keywords: energy storage, experimental approach, hybrid approach, undular and breaking Bores, 3D numerical approach

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Authors: Ahmed Bolaji Alarape, Oluwatobi Damilola Aba

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The growth pattern of Oreochromis niloticus and Sarotherodon galilaeus in Epe Lagoon Lagos State was investigated. One hundred (100) samples of each species were collected from fishermen at the landing site. They were transported to the Fisheries Laboratory of National Institute of Oceanography for identification, sexing morphometric measurement. The results showed that 58.0% and 56.0 % of the O.niloticus and S.galilaeus were female respectively while 42.0% and 44.0% were male respectively. The length-weight relationship of O.niloticus showed a strong regression coefficient (r = 0.944) (p<0.05) for the combined sex, (r =0.901) (p<0.05) for female and (r=0.985) (p<.05) for male with b-value of 2.5, 3.1 and 2.8 respectively. The S.galilaeus also showed a regression coefficient of r=0.970; p<0.05 for the combined sex, r=0.953; p<0.05 for the female and r= 0.979; p<0.05 for the male with b-value of 3.4, 3.1 and 3.6 respectively. O.niloticus showed an isometric growth pattern both in male and female. The condition factor in O.niloticus are 1.93 and 1.95 for male and female respectively while that of S.galilaeus is 1.95 for both sexes. Positive allometric was observed in both species except the male O.niloticus that showed negative allometric growth pattern. From the results of this study, the growth pattern of the two species indicated a good healthy environment.

Keywords: Epe Lagoon, length-weight relationship, Oreochromis niloticus, Sarotherodon galilaeus

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Staniek Halina

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The inappropriate trace elements supply such as iron(III) and chromium(III) may be risk factors of many metabolic disorders (e.g., anemia, diabetes, as well cause toxic effect). However, little is known about their mutual interactions and their impact on these disturbances. The effects of Cr(III) supplementation with a deficit or excess supply of Fe(III) in vivo conditions are not known yet. The objective of the study was to investigate the combined effect of different Fe(III) levels in the diet and simultaneous Cr(III) supplementation on the Ca distribution in organs in healthy rats. The assessment was based on a two-factor (2x3) experiment carried out on 54 female Wistar rats (Rattus norvegicus). The animals were randomly divided into 9 groups and for 6 weeks, they were fed semi-purified diets AIN-93 with three different Fe(III) levels in the diet as a factor A [control (C) 45 mg/kg (100% Recommended Daily Allowance for rodents), deficient (D) 5 mg/kg (10% RDA), and oversupply (H) 180 mg/kg (400% RDA)]. The second factor (B) was the simultaneous dietary supplementation with Cr(III) at doses of 1, 50 and 500 mg/kg of the diet. Iron(III) citrate was the source of Fe(III). The complex of Cr(III) with propionic acid, also called Cr₃ or chromium(III) propionate (CrProp), was used as a source of Cr(III) in the diet. The Ca content of analysed samples (liver, kidneys, spleen, heart, and femur) was determined with the Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS) method. It was found that different dietary Fe(III) supply as well as Cr(III) supplementation independently and in combination influenced Ca metabolism in healthy rats. Regardless of the supplementation of Cr(III), the oversupply of Fe(III) (180 mg/kg) decreased the Ca content in the liver and kidneys, while it increased the Ca saturation of bone tissue. High Cr(III) doses lowered the hepatic Ca content. Moreover, it tended to decrease the Ca content in the kidneys and heart, but this effect was not statistically significant. The combined effect of the experimental factors on the Ca content in the liver and the femur was observed. With the increase in the Fe(III) content in the diet, there was a decrease in the Ca level in the liver and an increase in bone saturation, and the additional Cr(III) supplementation intensified those effects. The study proved that the different Fe(III) content in the diet, independently and in combination with Cr(III) supplementation, affected the Ca distribution in organisms of healthy rats.

Keywords: calcium, chromium(III), iron(III), rats, supplementation

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Gashin Shahsavari, Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta, Alberto Campisano, Roberto Bertilotti, Fabien Riou

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Sewer deposits have been identified as a major cause of dysfunctions in combined sewer systems regarding sewer management, which induces different negative consequents resulting in poor hydraulic conveyance, environmental damages as well as worker’s health. In order to overcome the problematics of sedimentation, flushing has been considered as the most operative and cost-effective way to minimize the sediments impacts and prevent such challenges. Flushing, by prompting turbulent wave effects, can modify the bed form depending on the hydraulic properties and geometrical characteristics of the conduit. So far, the dynamics of the bed-load during high-flow events in combined sewer systems as a complex environment is not well understood, mostly due to lack of measuring devices capable to work in the “hostile” in combined sewer system correctly. In this regards, a one-episode flushing issue from an opening gate valve with weir function was carried out in a trunk sewer in Paris to understanding its cleansing efficiency on the sediments (thickness: 0-30 cm). During more than 1h of flushing within 5 m distance in downstream of this flushing device, a maximum flowrate and a maximum level of water have been recorded at 5 m in downstream of the gate as 4.1 m3/s and 2.1 m respectively. This paper is aimed to evaluate the efficiency of this type of gate for around 1.1 km (from the point -50 m to +1050 m in downstream from the gate) by (i) determining bed grain-size distribution and sediments evolution through the sewer channel, as well as their organic matter content, and (ii) identifying sections that exhibit more changes in their texture after the flush. For the first one, two series of sampling were taken from the sewer length and then analyzed in laboratory, one before flushing and second after, at same points among the sewer channel. Hence, a non-intrusive sampling instrument has undertaken to extract the sediments smaller than the fine gravels. The comparison between sediments texture after the flush operation and the initial state, revealed the most modified zones by the flush effect, regarding the sewer invert slope and hydraulic parameters in the zone up to 400 m from the gate. At this distance, despite the increase of sediment grain-size rages, D50 (median grain-size) varies between 0.6 mm and 1.1 mm compared to 0.8 mm and 10 mm before and after flushing, respectively. Overall, regarding the sewer channel invert slope, results indicate that grains smaller than sands (< 2 mm) are more transported to downstream along about 400 m from the gate: in average 69% before against 38% after the flush with more dispersion of grain-sizes distributions. Furthermore, high effect of the channel bed irregularities on the bed material evolution has been observed after the flush.

Keywords: bed-load evolution, combined sewer systems, flushing efficiency, sediments transport

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Authors: Hadeer R. M. Tawfik, Rania A. K. Birry, Amani A. Saad

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Eyes are considered to be the most sensitive and important organ for human being. Thus, any eye disorder will affect the patient in all aspects of life. Cataract is one of those eye disorders that lead to blindness if not treated correctly and quickly. This paper demonstrates a model for automatic detection, classification, and grading of cataracts based on image processing techniques and artificial intelligence. The proposed system is developed to ease the cataract diagnosis process for both ophthalmologists and patients. The wavelet transform combined with 2D Log Gabor Wavelet transform was used as feature extraction techniques for a dataset of 120 eye images followed by a classification process that classified the image set into three classes; normal, early, and advanced stage. A comparison between the two used classifiers, the support vector machine SVM and the artificial neural network ANN were done for the same dataset of 120 eye images. It was concluded that SVM gave better results than ANN. SVM success rate result was 96.8% accuracy where ANN success rate result was 92.3% accuracy.

Keywords: cataract, classification, detection, feature extraction, grading, log-gabor, neural networks, support vector machines, wavelet

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Authors: Priscila A. Bernardes, Marcos E. Buzanskas, Luciana C. A. Regitano, Ricardo V. Ventura, Danisio P. Munari

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Genotype imputation has been used to reduce genomic selections costs. In order to increase haplotype detection accuracy in methods that considers the linkage disequilibrium, another approach could be used, such as combined genotype data from different panels. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the linkage disequilibrium and haplotype blocks in two high-density panels before and after the imputation to a combined panel in Nelore beef cattle. A total of 814 animals were genotyped with the Illumina BovineHD BeadChip (IHD), wherein 93 animals (23 bulls and 70 progenies) were also genotyped with the Affymetrix Axion Genome-Wide BOS 1 Array Plate (AHD). After the quality control, 809 IHD animals (509,107 SNPs) and 93 AHD (427,875 SNPs) remained for analyses. The combined genotype panel (CP) was constructed by merging both panels after quality control, resulting in 880,336 SNPs. Imputation analysis was conducted using software FImpute v.2.2b. The reference (CP) and target (IHD) populations consisted of 23 bulls and 786 animals, respectively. The linkage disequilibrium and haplotype blocks studies were carried out for IHD, AHD, and imputed CP. Two linkage disequilibrium measures were considered; the correlation coefficient between alleles from two loci (r²) and the |D’|. Both measures were calculated using the software PLINK. The haplotypes' blocks were estimated using the software Haploview. The r² measurement presented different decay when compared to |D’|, wherein AHD and IHD had almost the same decay. For r², even with possible overestimation by the sample size for AHD (93 animals), the IHD presented higher values when compared to AHD for shorter distances, but with the increase of distance, both panels presented similar values. The r² measurement is influenced by the minor allele frequency of the pair of SNPs, which can cause the observed difference comparing the r² decay and |D’| decay. As a sum of the combinations between Illumina and Affymetrix panels, the CP presented a decay equivalent to a mean of these combinations. The estimated haplotype blocks detected for IHD, AHD, and CP were 84,529, 63,967, and 140,336, respectively. The IHD were composed by haplotype blocks with mean of 137.70 ± 219.05kb, the AHD with mean of 102.10kb ± 155.47, and the CP with mean of 107.10kb ± 169.14. The majority of the haplotype blocks of these three panels were composed by less than 10 SNPs, with only 3,882 (IHD), 193 (AHD) and 8,462 (CP) haplotype blocks composed by 10 SNPs or more. There was an increase in the number of chromosomes covered with long haplotypes when CP was used as well as an increase in haplotype coverage for short chromosomes (23-29), which can contribute for studies that explore haplotype blocks. In general, using CP could be an alternative to increase density and number of haplotype blocks, increasing the probability to obtain a marker close to a quantitative trait loci of interest.

Keywords: Bos taurus indicus, decay, genotype imputation, single nucleotide polymorphism

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: S. M. Satyam, K. L. Bairy, R. Pirasanthan, R. L. Vaishnav

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Zincovit tablets have been used as nutritional food supplement over a prolonged period of time. The aim of the present study was to investigate the cardio-protective effect of combined formulation of grape seed extract and Zincovit tablets (40, 80 and 160 mg/kg) using a Langendorff model of ischemia-reperfusion in Wistar rats. Following 21 days of pre-treatment, combined formulation of grape seed extract and Zincovit tablets significantly attenuated ischemia-reperfusion induced cardiac injury in terms of increased coronary flow rate (p < 0.01), decreased creatine kinase activity in coronary effluent (p < 0.05), decreased MDA (p < 0.001), 4-HNE (p < 0.001) and increased protein thiol content (p < 0.01) in comparison with the untreated (control) group. This study opens an avenue to clinical studies to demonstrate the validity of this paradigm as a nutritional food supplement, which could improve the clinical outcome of patients subjected to percutaneous angioplasty.

Keywords: grape seed extract, myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury, oxidative stress, Zincovit tablets

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. We analyze the opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) to try to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. The research aim is to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoMPaS and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoMPaS which reflects relations between the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoMPaS scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The foundation of the CoMPaS is the exponential tumor growth model, which is described by determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for the primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS is validated on clinical data of 10-years and 15-years survival depending on the tumor stage and diameter of the primary tumor. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer growth models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. The CoMPaS model and predictive software: a) fit to clinical trials data; b) detect different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; c) make forecast of the period of the secondary distant metastases appearance; d) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; e) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS enables, for the first time, to predict ‘whole natural history’ of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on the primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N0M0) stages without metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of the secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, metastases in lymph nodes, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: A. G. Margaryan

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Aims and Objectives: Assessment of health status and detection disorders of external respiration functions (ERF) during preventative medical examination among physicians of Armenia. Subjects and Methods: Overall, fifty-nine physicians (17 men and 42 women) were examined and spirometry was carried out. The average age of the physicians was 50 years old. The studies were conducted on the Micromedical MicroLab 3500 Spirometer. Results: 25.4% among 59 examined physicians are overweight; 22.0% of them suffer from obesity. Two physicians are currently smokers. About half of the examined physicians (50.8%) at the time of examination were diagnosed with some diseases and had different health-related problems (excluding the problems related to vision and hearing). FVC was 2.94±0.1, FEV1 – 2.64±0.1, PEF – 329.7±19.9, and FEV₁%/FVC – 89.7±1.3. Pathological changes of ERF are identified in 23 (39.0%) cases. 28.8% of physicians had first degree of restrictive disorders, 3.4% – first degree of combined obstructive/ restrictive disorders, 6.8% – second degree of combined obstructive/ restrictive disorders. Only three physicians with disorders of the ERF were diagnosed with chronic bronchitis and bronchial asthma. There were no statistically significant changes in ERF depending on the severity of obesity (P> 0.05). Conclusion: The study showed the prevalence of ERF among physicians, observing mainly mild and moderate changes in ERF parameters.

Keywords: Armenia, external respiration function, health status, physicians

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Authors: Chalermporn Jindapeng

Abstract:

The main objective of the study of the suitable operating conditions of hot water generators combined with central air package units: a case study of Tipco Building Group was to analyze the suitable operating conditions and energy-related costs in each operating condition of hot water generators combined with central air package units which resulted in water-cooled packages. Thermal energy from vapor form refrigerants at high pressures and temperatures was exchanged with thermal energy of the water in the swimming pool that required suitable temperature control for users with the use of plate heat exchangers before refrigerants could enter the condenser in its function to change the status of vapor form refrigerants at high pressures and temperatures to liquid form at high pressures and temperatures. Thus, if this was used to replace heat pumps it could reduce the electrical energy that was used to make hot water and reduce the cost of the electrical energy of air package units including the increased efficacy of air package units. Of the analyses of the suitable operating conditions by means of the study of the elements involved with actual measurements from the system that had been installed at the Tipco Building Group hot water generators were combined with air package units which resulted in water-cooled packages with a cooling capacity of 75 tonnes. Plate heat exchangers were used in the transfer of thermal energy from refrigerants to one set of water with a heat exchanger area of 1.5 m² which was used to increase the temperature of swimming pool water that has a capacity of 240 m³. From experimental results, it was discovered after continuous temperature measurements in the swimming pool every 15 minutes that swimming pool water temperature increased by 0.78 ⁰C 0.75 ⁰C 0.74 ⁰C and 0.71 ⁰C. The rates of flow of hot water through the heat exchangers were equal to 14, 16, 18 and 20 litres per minute respectively where the swimming pool water temperature was at a constant value and when the rate of flow of hot water increased this caused hot water temperatures to decrease and the coefficient of performance of the air package units to increase from 5.9 to 6.3, 6.7, 6.9 and 7.6 while the rates of flow of hot water were equal to 14, 16, 18 and 20 litres per minute, respectively. As for the cooling systems, there were no changes and the system cooling functions were normal as the cooling systems were able to continuously transfer incoming heat for the swimming pool water which resulted in a constant pressure in the cooling system that allowed its cooling functions to work normally.

Keywords: central air package units, heat exchange, hot water generators, swimming pool

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Manpreet Kaur, Badaruddoza, Sandeep Kaur Brar

Abstract:

The increasing prevalence of adolescent obesity is one of the major causes to be hypertensive in adulthood. Various statistical methods have been applied to examine the performance of anthropometric indices for the identification of adverse cardiovascular risk profile. The present work was undertaken to determine the significant traditional risk factors through principal component factor analysis (PCFA) among population based Punjabi adolescents aged 10-18 years. Data was collected among adolescent children from different schools situated in urban areas of Punjab, India. Principal component factor analysis (PCFA) was applied to extract orthogonal components from anthropometric and physiometric variables. Association between components were explained by factor loadings. The PCFA extracted four factors, which explained 84.21%, 84.06% and 83.15% of the total variance of the 14 original quantitative traits among boys, girls and combined subjects respectively. Factor 1 has high loading of the traits that reflect adiposity such as waist circumference, BMI and skinfolds among both sexes. However, waist circumference and body mass index are the indicator of abdominal obesity which increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases. The loadings of these two traits have found maximum in girls adolescents (WC=0.924; BMI=0.905). Therefore, factor 1 is the strong indicator of atherosclerosis in adolescents. Factor 2 is predominantly loaded with blood pressures and related traits (SBP, DBP, MBP and pulse rate) which reflect the risk of essential hypertension in adolescent girls and combined subjects, whereas, factor 2 loaded with obesity related traits in boys (weight and hip circumferences). Comparably, factor 3 is loaded with blood pressures in boys and with height and WHR in girls, while factor 4 contains high loading of pulse pressure among boys, girls and combined group of adolescents.

Keywords: adolescent obesity, cvd, hypertension, punjabi population

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Wei-Jen Hsu

Abstract:

Recently, the sale of electrical vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically due to maturing technology development and decreasing cost. Governments of many countries have made regulations and policies in favor of EVs due to their long-term commitment to net zero carbon emissions. However, due to uncertain factors such as the future price of EVs, forecasting the future market share of EVs is a challenging subject for both the auto industry and local government. This study tries to forecast the market share of EVs using conjoint models and Monte Carlo simulation. The research is conducted in three phases. (1) A conjoint model is established to represent the customer preference structure on purchasing vehicles while five product attributes of both EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are selected. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect responses from Taiwanese consumers and estimate the part-worth utility functions of all respondents. The resulting part-worth utility functions can be used to estimate the market share, assuming each respondent will purchase the product with the highest total utility. For example, attribute values of an ICEV and a competing EV are given respectively, two total utilities of the two vehicles of a respondent are calculated and then knowing his/her choice. Once the choices of all respondents are known, an estimate of market share can be obtained. (2) Among the attributes, future price is the key attribute that dominates consumers’ choice. This study adopts the assumption of a learning curve to predict the future price of EVs. Based on the learning curve method and past price data of EVs, a regression model is established and the probability distribution function of the price of EVs in 2030 is obtained. (3) Since the future price is a random variable from the results of phase 2, a Monte Carlo simulation is then conducted to simulate the choices of all respondents by using their part-worth utility functions. For instance, using one thousand generated future prices of an EV together with other forecasted attribute values of the EV and an ICEV, one thousand market shares can be obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting probability distribution of the market share of EVs provides more information than a fixed number forecast, reflecting the uncertain nature of the future development of EVs. The research results can help the auto industry and local government make more appropriate decisions and future action plans.

Keywords: conjoint model, electrical vehicle, learning curve, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Hasik Lee, Seung-Young Kho

Abstract:

Nowadays, automatic fare collection (AFC) system is widely used in many countries. However, smart card data from many of cities does not contain alighting information which is necessary to build OD matrices. Therefore, in order to utilize smart card data, destinations of passengers should be estimated. In this paper, kernel density estimation was used to forecast probabilities of alighting stations of bus passengers and applied to smart card data in Seoul, Korea which contains boarding and alighting information. This method was also validated with actual data. In some cases, stochastic method was more accurate than deterministic method. Therefore, it is sufficiently accurate to be used to build OD matrices.

Keywords: destination estimation, Kernel density estimation, smart card data, validation

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Authors: Aswathi Thrivikraman, S. Advaith

Abstract:

The study is aimed at designing encoders for deciphering intricacies in time series data by redescribing the dynamics operating on a lower-dimensional manifold. A semi-supervised LSTM autoencoder is devised and investigated to see if the latent representation of the time series data can better forecast the data. End-to-end training of the LSTM autoencoder, together with another LSTM network that is connected to the latent space, forces the hidden states of the encoder to represent the most meaningful latent variables relevant for forecasting. Furthermore, the study compares the predictions with those of a traditional seq2seq model.

Keywords: LSTM, autoencoder, forecasting, seq2seq model

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Seyed-Ahmad Shahidi, Salemeh Kazemzadeh, Mehdi Sharifi Soltani, Azade Ghorbani-HasanSaraei

Abstract:

The kinetics of colour changes of American Pokeweed extract, due to concentration by various heating methods was studied. Three different heating/evaporation processes were employed for production of American Pokeweed extract concentrate. The American Pokeweed extract was concentrated to a final 40 °Brix from an initial °Brix of 4 by microwave heating, rotary vacuum evaporator and evaporating at atmospheric pressure. The final American Pokeweed extract concentration of 40 °Brix was achieved in 188, 216 and 320 min by using microwave, rotary vacuum and atmospheric heating processes, respectively. The colour change during concentration processes was investigated. Total colour differences, Hunter L, a and b parameters were used to estimate the extent of colour loss. All Hunter colour parameters decreased with time. The zero-order, first-order and a combined kinetics model were applied to the changes in colour parameters. All models were found to describe the L, a and b-data adequately. Results indicated that variation in TCD followed both first-order and combined kinetics models. This model implied that the colour formation and pigment destruction occurred during concentration processes of American Pokeweed extract.

Keywords: American pokeweed, colour, concentration, kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 459

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

Procedia PDF Downloads 273