Search results for: churn prediction modeling

Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Fereydoon Moghadas Nejad, Mohammad Saed

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The bleeding prediction of the asphalt is one of the most complex subjects in the pavement engineering. In this paper, an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is used for modeling the effect of important parameters on bleeding is trained and tested with the experimental results. bleeding index based on the asphalt film thickness differential as target parameter,asphalt content, temperature depth of two centemeter, heavy traffic, dust to effective binder, Marshall strength, passing 3/4 sieves, passing 3/8 sieves,passing 3/16 sieves, passing NO8, passing NO50, passing NO100, passing NO200 as input parameters. Then, we randomly divided empirical data into train and test sections in order to accomplish modeling. We instructed ANFIS network by 72 percent of empirical data. 28 percent of primary data which had been considered for testing the approprativity of the modeling were entered into ANFIS model. Results were compared by two statistical criterions (R2, RMSE) with empirical ones. Considering the results, it is obvious that our proposed modeling by ANFIS is efficient and valid and it can also be promoted to more general states.

Keywords: bleeding, asphalt film thickness differential, Anfis Modeling

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Authors: Reza Zakerinejad

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Gully erosion is a serious problem that threading the sustainability of agricultural area and rangeland and water in a large part of Iran. This type of water erosion is the main source of sedimentation in many catchment areas in the north of Iran. Since in many national assessment approaches just qualitative models were applied the aim of this study is to predict the spatial distribution of gully erosion processes by means of detail terrain analysis and GIS -based logistic regression in the loess deposition in a case study in the Golestan Province. This study the DEM with 25 meter result ion from ASTER data has been used. The Landsat ETM data have been used to mapping of land use. The TreeNet model as a stochastic modeling was applied to prediction the susceptible area for gully erosion. In this model ROC we have set 20 % of data as learning and 20 % as learning data. Therefore, applying the GIS and satellite image analysis techniques has been used to derive the input information for these stochastic models. The result of this study showed a high accurate map of potential for gully erosion.

Keywords: TreeNet model, terrain analysis, Golestan Province, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 510

Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Dong Wu, Michael Grenn

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Managing software projects effectively is crucial for meeting deadlines, ensuring quality, and managing resources well. Traditional methods often struggle with predicting project timelines accurately due to uncertain schedules and complex data. This study addresses these challenges by combining time prediction algorithms with Large Language Models (LLMs). It makes use of real-world software project data to construct and validate a model. The model takes detailed project progress data such as task completion dynamic, team Interaction and development metrics as its input and outputs predictions of project timelines. To evaluate the effectiveness of this model, a comprehensive methodology is employed, involving simulations and practical applications in a variety of real-world software project scenarios. This multifaceted evaluation strategy is designed to validate the model's significant role in enhancing forecast accuracy and elevating overall management efficiency, particularly in complex software project environments. The results indicate that the integration of time prediction algorithms with LLMs has the potential to optimize software project progress management. These quantitative results suggest the effectiveness of the method in practical applications. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that integrating time prediction algorithms with LLMs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of software project management. This offers an advanced project management tool for the industry, with the potential to improve operational efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and ensure timely project completion.

Keywords: software project management, time prediction algorithms, large language models (LLMS), forecast accuracy, project progress prediction

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Supriya H. S., Chandrakala B. M.

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Deep learning based models have been recently successful adoption for network traffic prediction. However, training a deep learning model for various prediction tasks is considered one of the critical tasks due to various reasons. This research work develops Multi-Layer Hybrid Network (MLHN) for network traffic prediction and analysis; MLHN comprises the three distinctive networks for handling the different inputs for custom feature extraction. Furthermore, an optimized and efficient parameter-tuning algorithm is introduced to enhance parameter learning. MLHN is evaluated considering the “Big Data Challenge” dataset considering the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and R^2as metrics; furthermore, MLHN efficiency is proved through comparison with a state-of-art approach.

Keywords: MLHN, network traffic prediction

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Authors: Seongsoo Lee

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IP reuse is an effective design methodology for modern SoC design to reduce effort and time. However, description and modeling methods of IP interfaces are different due to different IP designers. In this paper, standardized description and modeling methods of IP interfaces are proposed. It consists of 11 items such as IP information, model provision, data type, description level, interface information, port information, signal information, protocol information, modeling level, modeling information, and source file. The proposed description and modeling methods enables easy understanding, simulation, verification, and modification in IP reuse.

Keywords: interface, standardization, description, modeling, semiconductor IP

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Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

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Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: spatial information network, traffic prediction, wavelet decomposition, time series model

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Authors: Fatemeh Sadat Sharifi

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In the present study, the capabilities of WAVEWATCH-III and MIKE21-SW for predicting the characteristics of wind waves in Hormuz Strait are evaluated. The GFS wind data (Global Forecast System) were derived. The bathymetry of gride with 2 arc-minute resolution, also were extracted from the ETOPO1. WAVEWATCH-III findings illustrate more valid prediction of wave features comparing to the MIKE-21 SW in deep water. Apparently, in shallow area, the MIKE-21 provides more uniformities with altimetry measurements. This may be due to the merits of the unstructured grid which are used in MIKE-21, leading to better representations of the coastal area. The findings on the direction of waves generated by wind in the modeling area indicate that in some regions, despite the increase in wind speed, significant wave height stays nearly unchanged. This is fundamental because of swift changes in wind track over the Strait of Hormuz. After discussing wind-induced waves in the region, the impact of instability of the surface layer on wave growth has been considered. For this purpose, the average monthly mean air temperature has been used. The results in cold months, when the surface layer is unstable, indicates an acceptable increase in the accuracy of prediction of the indicator wave height.

Keywords: numerical modeling, WAVEWATCH-III, Strait of Hormuz, MIKE21-SW

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Authors: Ayse Ozturk

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The study extends the prior research on modeling competencies by positioning students’ cognitive and language resources as the fundamentals for pursuing their own inquiry and expression lines through mathematical modeling. This strategy aims to answer the question that guides this study, “How do students’ group approaches to modeling tasks affect their modeling competencies over a unit of instruction?” Six bilingual tenth-grade students worked on open-ended modeling problems along with the content focused on quantities over six weeks. Each group was found to have a unique cognitive approach for solving these problems. Three different problem-solving strategies affected how the groups’ modeling competencies changed. The results provide evidence that the discussion around groups’ solutions, coupled with their reflections, advances group interpreting and validating competencies in the mathematical modeling process

Keywords: cognition, collective learning, mathematical modeling competencies, problem-solving

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.

Keywords: tomato yield prediction, naive Bayes, redundancy, WSG

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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Authors: Mehrzad Mohabbi Yadollahi, Ramazan Demirboğa, Majid Atashafrazeh

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Geopolymers are highly complex materials which involve many variables which makes modeling its properties very difficult. There is no systematic approach in mix design for Geopolymers. Since the amounts of silica modulus, Na2O content, w/b ratios and curing time have a great influence on the compressive strength an ANFIS (Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) method has been established for predicting compressive strength of ground pumice based Geopolymers and the possibilities of ANFIS for predicting the compressive strength has been studied. Consequently, ANFIS can be used for geopolymer compressive strength prediction with acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: geopolymer, ANFIS, compressive strength, mix design

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Authors: Ravi Soni, Irfan Pathan, Manish Pande

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The current product development process needs simultaneous consideration of different physics. The performance of the product needs to be considered under both structural and fluid loads. Examples include ducts and valves where structural behavior affects fluid motion and vice versa. Simulation of fluid-structure interaction involves modeling interaction between moving components and the fluid flow. In these scenarios, it is difficult to calculate the damping provided by fluid flow because of dynamic motions of components and the transient nature of the flow. Abaqus Explicit offers general capabilities for modeling fluid-structure interaction with the Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) method. The Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian technique has been used to simulate fluid spillage through fuel valves during dynamic closure events. The technique to simulate pressure drops across Eulerian domains has been developed using stagnation pressure. Also, the fluid flow is calculated considering material flow through elements at the outlet section of the valves. The methodology has been verified on Eaton products and shows a good correlation with the test results.

Keywords: Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Technique, fluid structure interaction, spillage prediction, stagnation pressure

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Authors: Deba Kumar Sarma, Sanjib Kr. Rajbongshi

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Surface finish is an important product quality in machining. At first, experiments were carried out to investigate the effect of the cutting tool nose radius (considering 1mm and 0.65mm) in prediction of surface finish with process parameters of cutting speed, feed and depth of cut. For all possible cutting conditions, full factorial design was considered as two levels four parameters. Commercial Mild Steel bar and High Speed Steel (HSS) material were considered as work-piece and cutting tool material respectively. In order to obtain functional relationship between process parameters and surface roughness, neural network was used which was found to be capable for the prediction of surface roughness within a reasonable degree of accuracy. It was observed that tool nose radius of 1mm provides better surface finish in comparison to 0.65 mm. Also, it was observed that feed rate has a significant influence on surface finish.

Keywords: full factorial design, neural network, nose radius, surface finish

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Authors: Samia Rabet, Rachida Chemini, Gerhard Schäfer, Farid Aiouache

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The textile industry generates large quantities of wastewater, which poses significant environmental problems due to its complex composition and high levels of pollutants loaded principally with heavy metals, large amounts of COD, and dye. Separation treatment methods are often known for their effectiveness in removing contaminants whereas membrane separation techniques are a promising process for the treatment of textile effluent due to their versatility, efficiency, and low energy requirements. This study focuses on the modeling and simulation of membrane separation technologies with a cross-flow filtration process for textile effluent treatment. It aims to explore the application of mathematical models and computational simulations using ASPEN Plus Software in the prediction of a complex and real effluent separation. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of modeling and simulation techniques in predicting pollutant removal efficiencies with a global deviation percentage of 1.83% between experimental and simulated results; membrane fouling behavior, and overall process performance (hydraulic resistance, membrane porosity) were also estimated and indicating that the membrane losses 10% of its efficiency after 40 min of working.

Keywords: membrane separation, ultrafiltration, textile effluent, modeling, simulation

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, seizure, phase correlation, fluctuation, deviation.

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Dariush Jafari, S. Mostafa Nowee

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In this study a ternary system containing sodium chloride as solute, water as primary solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent was considered to investigate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of sodium solubility in the mixture of water as the solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent. The system was previously studied using by Extended UNIQUAC model by the authors of this study. The comparison between the results of the two models shows an excellent agreement between them (R2=0.99), and also approves the capability of ANN to predict the thermodynamic behavior of ternary electrolyte systems which are difficult to model.

Keywords: thermodynamic modeling, ANN, solubility, ternary electrolyte system

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Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

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Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis

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Authors: Hassan Baji, Chun-Qing Li, Wei Yang

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Water seepage is one of the most common causes of damage in tunnel structures, which can cause direct and indirect e.g. reinforcement corrosion and calcium leaching damages. Estimation of water seepage or inflow is one of the main challenges in probabilistic assessment of tunnels. The methodology proposed in this study is an attempt for mathematically modeling the water seepage in tunnel structures and further predicting its service life. Using the time-dependent reliability, water seepage is formulated as a failure mode, which can be used for prediction of service life. Application of the formulated seepage failure mode to a case study tunnel is presented.

Keywords: water seepage, tunnels, time-dependent reliability, service life

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Hamed Afrasiab, Saeed Khodaygan

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Prediction of machining process capability in the design stage plays a key role to reach the precision design and manufacturing of mechanical products. Inaccuracies in machining process lead to errors in position and orientation of machined features on the part, and strongly affect the process capability in the final quality of the product. In this paper, an efficient systematic approach is given to investigate the machining errors to predict the manufacturing errors of the parts and capability prediction of corresponding machining processes. A mathematical formulation of fixture locators modeling is presented to establish the relationship between the part errors and the related sources. Based on this method, the final machining errors of the part can be accurately estimated by relating them to the combined dimensional and geometric tolerances of the workpiece – fixture system. This method is developed for uncertainty analysis based on the Worst Case and statistical approaches. The application of the presented method is illustrated through presenting an example and the computational results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results.

Keywords: process capability, machining error, dimensional and geometrical tolerances, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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Authors: John Kabuba

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The study investigated the implementation of the Neural Network (NN) techniques for prediction of the loading of Cu ions onto clinoptilolite. The experimental design using analysis of variance (ANOVA) was chosen for testing the adequacy of the Neural Network and for optimizing of the effective input parameters (pH, temperature and initial concentration). Feed forward, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) NN successfully tracked the non-linear behavior of the adsorption process versus the input parameters with mean squared error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R) and minimum squared error (MSRE) of 0.102, 0.998 and 0.004 respectively. The results showed that NN modeling techniques could effectively predict and simulate the highly complex system and non-linear process such as ion-exchange.

Keywords: clinoptilolite, loading, modeling, neural network

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Authors: Pooja Rani, G. S. Mahapatra, S. K. Pandey

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In this paper, we propose a novel approach of Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization methods for software reliability prediction. We first explain how to apply compound function in neural network so that we can derive a Flexible Logistic (S-shaped) Growth Curve (FLGC) model. This model mathematically represents software failure as a random process and can be used to evaluate software development status during testing. To avoid trapping in local minima, we have applied Particle Swarm Optimization method to train proposed model using failure test data sets. We drive our proposed model using computational based intelligence modeling. Thus, proposed model becomes Neuro-Particle Swarm Optimization (NPSO) model. We do test result with different inertia weight to update particle and update velocity. We obtain result based on best inertia weight compare along with Personal based oriented PSO (pPSO) help to choose local best in network neighborhood. The applicability of proposed model is demonstrated through real time test data failure set. The results obtained from experiments show that the proposed model has a fairly accurate prediction capability in software reliability.

Keywords: software reliability, flexible logistic growth curve model, software cumulative failure prediction, neural network, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

Procedia PDF Downloads 553