Search results for: spillage prediction

Authors: Ishwor Paudel, Pratima Gautam, Sandeep Bhattarai

Abstract:

Bile spillage occurs frequently during laparoscopic cholecystectomy yet its impact on postoperative outcomes remains unknown. It might not be as innocuous as some surgeons tend to believe and in fact, might be associated with post-operative surgical site infections (SSI). It often leads to patient dissatisfaction, emergency department visits, with subsequent readmission and additional procedures. While some authors found no increase in SSI following bile spillage (BS) compared to non-bile spillage cases, others found bile spillage to be associated with SSI. Therefore we sought to examine whether bile spillage is indeed associated with an increased risk of postoperative wound infections after laparoscopic cholecystectomy. I hypothesize that patients who experience BS during operation, have an increased risk of SSI compared to those who do not. This is a prospective observational study conducted in the Department of Surgery, Patan Hospital over a period of one year. Patients undergoing Laparoscopic cholecystectomy were included and bile spillage, if happened was noted. All cases were followed up for 30 days and SSI was diagnosed as per CDC-defined criteria. Fisher’s test was applied to compare SSI in bile spillage versus non-bile spillage cases. A total of 112 patients were included in the final analysis. Bile spillage occurred in 20 cases and was absent in the rest i.e.92 cases. Among bile spillage cases, SSI was found in 4 cases (20%), whereas in nonbile spillage cases, SSI was found in 8 cases (8.7%). However, it was statistically not significant (p-value>0.05). Eleven (92%) cases were superficial SSI and one was an organ-space infection. No mortality or 30-day readmission. Spillage of Gallbladder content does not lead to an increase in SSIs. However as the rate of SSI is still higher, Surgeons should be careful to avoid iatrogenic gallbladder perforation and in case of bile spillage thorough peritoneal irrigation with normal saline should be done.

Keywords: organ space infection, Laparoscopic cholecystectomy, biliary spillage, surgical site infection

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Authors: Ravi Soni, Irfan Pathan, Manish Pande

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The current product development process needs simultaneous consideration of different physics. The performance of the product needs to be considered under both structural and fluid loads. Examples include ducts and valves where structural behavior affects fluid motion and vice versa. Simulation of fluid-structure interaction involves modeling interaction between moving components and the fluid flow. In these scenarios, it is difficult to calculate the damping provided by fluid flow because of dynamic motions of components and the transient nature of the flow. Abaqus Explicit offers general capabilities for modeling fluid-structure interaction with the Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) method. The Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian technique has been used to simulate fluid spillage through fuel valves during dynamic closure events. The technique to simulate pressure drops across Eulerian domains has been developed using stagnation pressure. Also, the fluid flow is calculated considering material flow through elements at the outlet section of the valves. The methodology has been verified on Eaton products and shows a good correlation with the test results.

Keywords: Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Technique, fluid structure interaction, spillage prediction, stagnation pressure

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Authors: N. Moradian, E. Timofeev, R. Tahir

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In this work, startability of the Busemann intake family with weak/strong conical shock, as most efficient intakes, via overboard mass spillage method is theoretically analyzed. Masterix and Candifix codes are used to numerically simulate few models of this type of intake and verify the theoretical results. Portions of the intake corresponding to various flow capture angles are considered to have mass spillage in the starting process of this intake. This approach allows for overboard mass spillage via a V-shaped slot with the tip of V coinciding with the focal point of the Busemann flow. The theoretical results, achieved using two different theories, of self-started Busemann takes with weak/strong conical shock show that significant improve in intake startability using overboard spillage technique. The starting phenomena of Busemann intakes with weak conical shock and seven different capture angles are numerically simulated at freestream Mach number of 3 to find the minimum area ratios of self-started intakes. The numerical results confirm the theoretical ones achieved by authors.

Keywords: Busemann intake, conical shock, overboard spillage, startability

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Authors: Pengcheng Quan, Shan Zhong

Abstract:

Double ramp geometry is widely used in supersonic and hypersonic environments as it presents unique flow patterns for shock wave-boundary layer interaction studies as well as for two-dimensional inlets and deflected control surfaces for re-entry vehicles. Hence, the surface pressure distribution is critical for optimum design. Though when the model is wide enough on spanwise direction the flow can be regarded as a two-dimensional flow, in actual applications a finite width would normally cause some three-dimensional spillage effects. No research has been found addressed this problem, hence the primary interest of this study is to set up a liable surface pressure distribution on a double ramp with three-dimensional effects. Both numerical and experimental (pressure sensitive paints) are applied to obtain the pressure distribution; the results agree well except that the numerical computation doesn’t capture the Gortler vortices. The pressure variations on the spanwise planes are used to analyse the development of the Gortler vortices and the effects of three-dimensional spillage on the vortices. Results indicate that the three-dimensionl spillage effects not only enhance the developing of the Gortler vortice, but also increase the periodic distance between vortice pairs.

Keywords: spillage effects, pressure sensitive paints, hypersonic, double ramp

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Authors: S. Naveen, V. Sivasubramanian

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A modeling theory is proposed to consider the vaporization of LNG during its contact with water following its release from an underwater source. The spillage of LNG underwater can lead to a decrease in the surface temperature of water and subsequent freezing. This can in turn affect the heat flux distribution from the released LNG onto the water surrounding it. The available models predict the rate of vaporization considering the surface of contact as a solid wall, and considering the entire phenomena as a solid-liquid operation. This assumption greatly under-predicted the overall heat transfer on LNG water interface. The vaporization flux would first decrease during the film boiling, followed by an increase during the transition boiling and a steady decrease during the nucleate boiling. A superheat theory is introduced to enhance the accuracy in the prediction of the heat transfer between LNG and water. The work suggests that considering the superheat theory can greatly enhance the prediction of LNG vaporization on underwater releases and also help improve the study of overall thermodynamics.

Keywords: evaporation rate, heat transfer, LNG vaporization, underwater LNG release

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Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Renu Dhir

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Climate prediction is an essential component of climate research, which helps evaluate possible effects on economies, communities, and ecosystems. Climate prediction involves short-term weather prediction, seasonal prediction, and long-term climate change prediction. Climate prediction can use the information gathered from satellites, ground-based stations, and ocean buoys, among other sources. The paper's four architectures, such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception, have been combined using an ensemble approach for overall performance and robustness. An ensemble of different models makes a prediction, and the majority vote determines the final prediction. The various architectures such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception efficiently classify the dataset RSI-CB256, which contains satellite images into cloudy and non-cloudy. The generated ensembled S-E model (Sar-ensembled model) provides an accuracy of 99.25%.

Keywords: climate, satellite images, prediction, classification

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

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River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to developed an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: river flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation

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Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

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Generally, absorption and bioavailability increase if solubility increases; therefore, it is crucial to predict them in drug discovery applications. Molecular descriptors and Molecular properties are traditionally used for the prediction of water solubility. There are various key descriptors that are used for this purpose, namely Drogan Descriptors, Morgan Descriptors, Maccs keys, etc., and each has different prediction capabilities with differentiating successes between different data sets. Another source for the prediction of solubility is structural features; they are commonly used for the prediction of solubility. However, there are little to no studies that combine three or more properties or descriptors for prediction to produce a more powerful prediction model. Unlike available models, we used a combination of those features in a random forest machine learning model for improved solubility prediction to better predict and, therefore, contribute to drug discovery systems.

Keywords: solubility, molecular descriptors, machine learning, random forest

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Authors: Olufunke Ayilara Aje-Famuyide

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The centrality of the Petroleum Industry in the world energy is undoubted. The world economy almost runs and depends on petroleum. Petroleum industry is a multi-trillion industry; it turns otherwise poor and underdeveloped countries into wealthy nations and thrusts them at the center of international diplomacy. Although these developing nations lack the necessary technology to explore and exploit petroleum resources they are not without help as developed nations, represented by their multinational corporations are ready and willing to provide both the technical and managerial expertise necessary for the development of this natural resource. However, the exploration of these petroleum resources comes with, sometimes, grave, concomitant consequences. These consequences are especially pronounced with respect to the environment. From the British Petroleum Oil rig explosion and the resultant oil spillage and pollution in New Mexico, United States to the Mobil Oil spillage along Nigerian coast, the story and consequence is virtually the same. Nigeria’s Niger Delta Region produces Nigeria’s petroleum which accounts for more than ninety-five percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings. Between 1999 and 2007, Nigeria earned more than $400 billion from petroleum exports. Nevertheless, petroleum exploration and exploitation has devastated the Niger Delta environment. From oil spillage which pollutes the rivers, farms and wetlands to gas flaring by the multi-national corporations; the consequences is similar-a region that has been devastated by petroleum exploitation. This paper thus seeks to examine the consequences and impact of petroleum pollution in the Niger Delta of Nigeria with particular reference on the right of the people of Niger Delta to a healthy environment. The paper further seeks to examine the relevant international, regional instrument and Nigeria’s municipal laws that are meant to protect the result of the people of the Niger Delta and their enforcement by the Nigerian State. It is quite worrisome that the Niger Delta Region and its people have suffered and are still suffering grave violations of their right to a healthy environment as a result of petroleum exploitation in their region. The Nigerian effort at best is half-hearted in its protection of the people’s right.

Keywords: environment, exploration, petroleum, pollution

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Mina Shokry Hanna Saleh Tadros

Abstract:

The centrality of the Petroleum Industry in the world energy is undoubted. The world economy almost runs and depends on petroleum. Petroleum industry is a multi-trillion industry; it turns otherwise poor and underdeveloped countries into wealthy nations and thrusts them at the center of international diplomacy. Although these developing nations lack the necessary technology to explore and exploit petroleum resources they are not without help as developed nations, represented by their multinational corporations are ready and willing to provide both the technical and managerial expertise necessary for the development of this natural resource. However, the exploration of these petroleum resources comes with, sometimes, grave, concomitant consequences. These consequences are especially pronounced with respect to the environment. From the British Petroleum Oil rig explosion and the resultant oil spillage and pollution in New Mexico, United States to the Mobil Oil spillage along Egyptian coast, the story and consequence is virtually the same. Egypt’s delta Region produces Nigeria’s petroleum which accounts for more than ninety-five percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings. Between 1999 and 2007, Egypt earned more than $400 billion from petroleum exports. Nevertheless, petroleum exploration and exploitation has devastated the Delta environment. From oil spillage which pollutes the rivers, farms and wetlands to gas flaring by the multi-national corporations; the consequences is similar-a region that has been devastated by petroleum exploitation. This paper thus seeks to examine the consequences and impact of petroleum pollution in the Egypt Delta with particular reference on the right of the people of Niger Delta to a healthy environment. The paper further seeks to examine the relevant international, regional instrument and Nigeria’s municipal laws that are meant to protect the result of the people of the Egypt Delta and their enforcement by the Nigerian State. It is quite worrisome that the Egypt Delta Region and its people have suffered and are still suffering grave violations of their right to a healthy environment as a result of petroleum exploitation in their region. The Egypt effort at best is half-hearted in its protection of the people’s right.

Keywords: crude oil, fire, floating roof tank, lightning protection systemenvironment, exploration, petroleum, pollutionDuvernay petroleum system, oil generation, oil-source correlation, Re-Os

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Authors: Antoifi Abdoulhalik, Ashraf Ahmed

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Saltwater intrusion (SWI) in coastal aquifers has become a growing threat for many countries around the world. While various control measures have been suggested to mitigate SWI, the construction of subsurface physical barriers remains one of the most effective solutions for this problem. In this work, we used laboratory experiments and numerical simulations to investigate the effectiveness of subsurface dams in heterogeneous layered coastal aquifer with different layering patterns. Four different cases were investigated, including a homogeneous (case H), and three heterogeneous cases in which a low permeability (K) layer was set in the top part of the system (case LH), in the middle part of the system (case HLH) and the bottom part of the system (case HL). Automated image analysis technique was implemented to quantify the main SWI parameters under high spatial and temporal resolution. The method also provides transient salt concentration maps, allowing for the first time clear visualization of the spillage of saline water over the dam (advancing wedge condition) as well as the flushing of residual saline water from the freshwater area (receding wedge condition). The SEAWAT code was adopted for the numerical simulations. The results show that the presence of an overlying layer of low permeability enhanced the ability of the dam to retain the saline water. In such conditions, the rate of saline water spillage and inland extension may considerably be reduced. Conversely, the presence of an underlying low K layer led to a faster increase of saltwater volume on the seaward side of the wall, therefore considerably facilitating the spillage. The results showed that a complete removal of the residual saline water eventually occurred in all the investigated scenarios, with a rate of removal strongly affected by the hydraulic conductivity of the lower part of the aquifer. The data showed that the addition of the underlying low K layer in case HL caused the complete flushing to be almost twice longer than in the homogeneous scenario.

Keywords: heterogeneous coastal aquifers, laboratory experiments, physical barriers, seawater intrusion control

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

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In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: fault prediction, neural network, GM(1, 5) genetic algorithm, GBPGA

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Gloria Ogungbade, Ogaba Oche, Moses Duruji, Chris Ehiobuche, Lady Ajayi

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Human’s continued sustenance on earth and the quality of living are heavily dependent on the environment. The major components of the environment being air, water and land are the supporting pillars of the human existence, which they depend on directly or indirectly for survival and well-being. Unfortunately, due to some of the human activities on the environment, there seems to be a war between humans and the environment, which is evident in his over-exploitation and inadequate management of the basic components of the environment. Since the discovery of crude oil in the Niger Delta, the region has experienced various forms of degradation caused by pollution from oil spillage, gas flaring and other forms of environmental pollution, as a result of reckless way and manner with which oil is being exploited by the International Oil Corporations (IOCs) operating within the region. The Nigerian government on the other, not having strong regulations guiding the activities of the operations of these IOCs, has done almost nothing to curtail the activities of these IOCs because of the revenue generated the IOCs, as such the region is deprived of the basic social amenities and infrastructures. The degree of environmental pollution suffered within the region affects their major sources of livelihood – being fishing and farming, and has also left the region in poverty, which has led to a large number of people migrating to the urban areas to escape poverty. This paper investigates how environment degradation impact urbanization and security in the region.

Keywords: environmental degradation, environmental pollution, gas flaring, oil spillage, urbanization

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Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon

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With the advent of IPTV in the fierce competition with existing broadcasting system, it is emerged as an important issue to predict how much the adoption of IPTV service will be. This paper aims to suggest a prediction model for adopting IPTV using classification and Ranking Belief Simplex (CaRBS). A simplex plot method of representing data allows a clear visual representation to the degree of interaction of the support from the variables to the prediction of the objects. CaRBS is applied to the survey data on the IPTV adoption.

Keywords: prediction, adoption, IPTV, CaRBS

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Maurice Ntahobari, Levin Kuhlmann, Mario Boley, Zhinoos Razavi Hesabi

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For machine learning based epileptic seizure prediction, it is important for the model to be implemented in small implantable or wearable devices that can be used to monitor epilepsy patients; however, current state-of-the-art methods are complex and computationally intensive. We use Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to find relevant intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) features and improve the computational efficiency of a state-of-the-art seizure prediction method based on the extra trees classifier while maintaining prediction performance. Results for a small contest dataset and a much larger dataset with continuous recordings of up to 3 years per patient from 15 patients yield better than chance prediction performance (p < 0.004). Moreover, while the performance of the SHAP-based model is comparable to that of the benchmark, the overall training and prediction time of the model has been reduced by a factor of 1.83. It can also be noted that the feature called zero crossing value is the best EEG feature for seizure prediction. These results suggest state-of-the-art seizure prediction performance can be achieved using efficient methods based on optimal feature selection.

Keywords: machine learning, seizure prediction, extra tree classifier, SHAP, epilepsy

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

Abstract:

The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

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Authors: Supriya H. S., Chandrakala B. M.

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Deep learning based models have been recently successful adoption for network traffic prediction. However, training a deep learning model for various prediction tasks is considered one of the critical tasks due to various reasons. This research work develops Multi-Layer Hybrid Network (MLHN) for network traffic prediction and analysis; MLHN comprises the three distinctive networks for handling the different inputs for custom feature extraction. Furthermore, an optimized and efficient parameter-tuning algorithm is introduced to enhance parameter learning. MLHN is evaluated considering the “Big Data Challenge” dataset considering the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and R^2as metrics; furthermore, MLHN efficiency is proved through comparison with a state-of-art approach.

Keywords: MLHN, network traffic prediction

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, seizure, phase correlation, fluctuation, deviation.

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

Abstract:

Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uni-axial tension, equi bi-axial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction

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Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

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Authors: Qiang Zhang, Chun Yuan

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Since the PU (Prediction Unit) decision process is the most time consuming part of the emerging HEVC (High Efficient Video Coding) standardin intra and inter frame coding, this paper proposes the fast PU decision algorithm and speed up the algorithm using CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). In intra frame coding, the fast PU decision algorithm uses the texture features to skip intra-frame prediction or terminal the intra-frame prediction for smaller PU size. In inter frame coding of HEVC, the fast PU decision algorithm takes use of the similarity of its own two Nx2N size PU's motion vectors and the hierarchical structure of CU (Coding Unit) partition to skip some modes of PU partition, so as to reduce the motion estimation times. The accelerate algorithm using CUDA is based on the fast PU decision algorithm which uses the GPU to make the motion search and the gradient computation could be parallel computed. The proposed algorithm achieves up to 57% time saving compared to the HM 10.0 with little rate-distortion losses (0.043dB drop and 1.82% bitrate increase on average).

Keywords: HEVC, PU decision, inter prediction, intra prediction, CUDA, parallel

Procedia PDF Downloads 365