Search results for: causal mediation analysis

Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

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This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

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Authors: Murad Ali, Anderson Konan Seny Kan, Khalid A. Maimani

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Based on the theory of organizational design and the theory of knowledge, this study uses complexity theory to explain and better understand the causal impacts of various patterns of organizational structural factors stimulating absorptive capacity (ACAP). Organizational structure can be thought of as heterogeneous configurations where various components are often intertwined. This study argues that impact of the traditional variables which define a firm’s organizational structure (centralization, formalization, complexity and integration) on ACAP is better understood in terms of set-theoretic relations rather than correlations. This study uses a data sample of 347 from a multiple industrial sector in South Korea. The results from PLS-SEM support all the hypothetical relationships among the variables. However, fsQCA results suggest the possible configurations of centralization, formalization, complexity, integration, age, size, industry and revenue factors that contribute to high level of ACAP. The results from fsQCA demonstrate the usefulness of configurational approaches in helping understand equifinality in the field of knowledge management. A recent fsQCA procedure based on a modeling subsample and holdout subsample is use in this study to assess the predictive validity of the model under investigation. The same type predictive analysis is also made through PLS-SEM. These analyses reveal a good relevance of causal solutions leading to high level of ACAP. In overall, the results obtained from combining PLS-SEM and fsQCA are very insightful. In particular, they could help managers to link internal organizational structural with ACAP. In other words, managers may comprehend finely how different components of organizational structure can increase the level of ACAP. The configurational approach may trigger new insights that could help managers prioritize selection criteria and understand the interactions between organizational structure and ACAP. The paper also discusses theoretical and managerial implications arising from these findings.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, organizational structure, PLS-SEM, fsQCA, predictive analysis, modeling subsample, holdout subsample

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Authors: Prajamitra Bhuyan

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Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. But often such interventions are made in the absence of sound evidence on what outcomes may result. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode which aims to cut traffic congestion. The estimation of the impacts of the cycle superhighways on congestion is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper, we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising pre-innervation and post-intervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socio-economic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network, and the result would help effective decision making to improve network performance.

Keywords: average treatment effect, confounder, difference-in-difference, intelligent transportation system, potential outcome

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Authors: Vivienne Langhorne, Helen Sharpe

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Body dissatisfaction begins developing in middle childhood, with wide-ranging implications for mental health and well-being. Previous research on parent behavior has focused on the role of explicit parent behaviors in adolescent and young adult body dissatisfaction, leaving a gap in understanding how implicit parent behaviors relate to body dissatisfaction in childhood. The current study investigated how implicit parent behavior (such as modeling own body dissatisfaction and dieting) relates to parent and child body dissatisfaction. It was hypothesized that implicit behavior would be directly related to parent and child body dissatisfaction and mediate the relationship between the two. Furthermore, this study aimed to examine child gender as a potential moderator in this mediation, as research shows that boys and girls experience body dissatisfaction differently. This study analyzed survey responses on parent body dissatisfaction, implicit behavior, and child body dissatisfaction measures from a sample of 166 parent-child dyads with children between the ages of 6 to 9 years old. Regression analyses revealed that parent body dissatisfaction is related to both parent-implicit behavior and child body dissatisfaction. However, implicit behavior did not mediate the relationship between the two body dissatisfaction variables. Additionally, the results of moderated mediation indicated there were no child gender differences in the strength of the association between parental implicit behaviors and child body dissatisfaction. These findings highlight the need for further research into the mechanisms behind parent and child body dissatisfaction to better understand the process through which intergenerational transmission occurs.

Keywords: body dissatisfaction, implicit behaviour, middle childhood, parenting

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Authors: Alireza Tavakoli Nia

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In order to understand the role of the injured party's fault in dividing liability, we studied its historical background. In common law, the traditional contributory negligence rule was a complete defense. Then the legislature and judicial procedure modified that rule to one of apportionment. In Islamic law, too, the Action rule was at first used when the injured party was the sole cause, but jurists expanded the scope of this rule, so this rule was used in cases where both the injured party's fault and that of the other party are involved. There are some popular approaches for apportionment of damages. Some common law countries like Britain had chosen ‘the causal potency approach’ and ‘fixed apportionment’. Islamic countries like Iran have chosen both ‘the relative blameworthiness’ and ‘equal apportionment’ approaches. The article concludes that both common law and Islamic law believe in the division of responsibility between a wrongdoer claimant and the defendant. In contrast, in the apportionment of responsibility, Islamic law mostly believes in equal apportionment that is way easier and saves time and money, but common law legal systems have chosen the causal potency approach, which is more complicated than the rival approach but is fairer.

Keywords: contributory negligence, tort law, damage apportionment, common law, Islamic law

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Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

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Authors: Chomba Kalunga

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Many developing countries have a rich endowment of natural resources. Yet, amidst that wealth, living standards remain poor. At the same time, international markets have been surged with an increase in copper prices in the last twenty years. This is a presentation of the findings on the causal economic impact of Zambia’s copper mines, a country located in sub-Saharan Africa endowed with vast copper deposits on living standards using household data from 1996 to 2010, exploiting an episode where the copper prices on the international market were rising. Using an Instrumental Variable approach and controlling for constituency-level and microeconomic factors, the results show a significant impact of copper production on living standards. After splitting the constituencies close to and far away from the nearest mine, the results document that constituencies close to the mines benefited significantly from the increase in copper production, compared to their counterparts through increased levels of employment. Finally, the results are not consistent with the natural resource curse hypothesis; findings show a positive causal relationship between the presence of natural resources and socioeconomic outcomes in less developed countries, particularly for constituencies close to the mines in Zambia. Some key policy implications follow from the findings. The finding that increased copper production led to an increase in employment suggests that, in Zambias’ context, policies that promote local employment may be more beneficial to residents. Meaning that it is government policies that can help improve the living standards were government needs to work towards making this impact more substantial.

Keywords: copper prices, local development, mining, natural resources

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Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng, C. S. Wu, M. C. Tan

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It is a critical time to upgrade technology and increase value added with manufacturing skills developing and management strategies that will highly satisfy the customers need in the precision machinery global market. In recent years, the supply side, each precision machinery manufacturers in each country are facing the pressures of price reducing from the demand side voices that pushes the high-end precision machinery manufacturers adopts low-cost and high-quality strategy to retrieve the market. Because of the trend of the global market, the manufacturers must take price reducing strategies and upgrade technology of low-end machinery for differentiations to consolidate the market. By using six key success factors (KSFs), customer perceived value, customer satisfaction, customer service, product design, product effectiveness and machine structure quality are causal conditions to explore the impact of competitive advantage of the enterprise, such as overall profitability and product pricing power. This research uses key success paths (KSPs) approach and f/s QCA software to explore various combinations of causal relationships, so as to fully understand the performance level of KSFs and business objectives in order to achieve competitive advantage. In this study, the combination of a causal relationships, are called Key Success Paths (KSPs). The key success paths guide the enterprise to achieve the specific outcomes of business. The findings of this study indicate that there are thirteen KSPs to achieve the overall profitability, sixteen KSPs to achieve the product pricing power and seventeen KSPs to achieve both overall profitability and pricing power of the enterprise. The KSPs provide the directions of resources integration and allocation, improve utilization efficiency of limited resources to realize the continuous vision of the enterprise.

Keywords: precision machinery industry, key success factors (KSFs), key success paths (KSPs), overall profitability, product pricing power, competitive advantages

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Authors: Nia Kurniati, Efa Laela Fakhriah

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The regulation in Indonesia provides space for the land dispute to be settled outside the court by the government through National Land. In this case, the bureaucrat of Badan Pertanahan Nasional (BPN) acts as mediator to reach a fair agreement between the disputing parties. Land dispute is from a party who denies the ownership of the other party of a land and denies legal-technical facts written on land certificate published by BPN. Appointing the bureaucrat of BPN as mediator in dispute settlements may possibly create conflict of interest since the object. It has become a concern since bureaucrat of BPN acts as mediator, he will be bias and partial in assisting the dispute settlement, thus the spirit and purposes of mediation will be hampered. This issue triggers to be thoroughly examined further in a relation with the role and function of BPN as land dispute mediator. The methodology used in this research is a normative-legal one with qualitative-legal analytical method. The object of this research is in the form of random sampling of land dispute cases being occurred in some areas. Several principles in mediation have to be made as the base of the consideration to appoint bureaucrat of BPN as mediator since the mediator is an impartial third party, working with both disputing parties and assisting them to reach a fair resolution written in agreement as a foundation of land dispute settlement. The existence of BPN as mediator in land dispute settlement encounters conflict of interest which uphold legal uncertainty to act objectively.

Keywords: Indonesia, land dispute, mediator, national land authority

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Authors: M. A. Fernández-Vilar, M. D. Galián, E. Ato

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The aim of this work was to analyze the relation between children´s effortful control and Maths achievement in a sample of 447 Spanish children aged between 6 and 8 years. Traditionally, the literature confirms that higher level of effortful control has been associated with higher academic achievement, but there are few studies that include the effect that children´s social competence exert to this relation. To measure children’s effortful control parents were given the TMCQ (Temperament in Middle Childhood Questionnaire), and Maths achievement was taken from teacher´s rates. To measure social competence, we used the nominations method in the classroom context. Results confirmed that higher effortful control predicted a better maths achievement, whereas lower effortful control scores predicted lower Maths scores. Using a statistical modeling approach, we tested a mediation model that revealed the mediating role of social competence (popularity and rejection) in the relation between effortful control and Maths achievement. Concretely, higher social competence (higher popularity and lower rejection) seems to mediate the better Maths achievement showed by better self´regulated children. Therefore, an adequate social competence mediates the positive effect that self-regulatory capacity exerts to academic achievement. The clinical implications of the present findings should be considered. Specifically, rejected children must be detected and evaluated in community settings, such as school or community programs, due the relevant role of social competence in the relation between temperament and academic achievement.

Keywords: effortful control, maths achievement, social competence, mediation

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Authors: Sarah Potter, Michele Laliberte

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As eating disorders are associated with high levels of chronicity, impairment, and distress, it is paramount to evaluate factors that may improve treatment outcomes in this group. Individuals with eating disorders exhibit elevated levels of perfectionism and emotion dysregulation, as well as reduced self-compassion. These variables are related to eating disorder outcomes, including shape/weight concerns and psychosocial impairment. Thus, these factors may be tenable targets for treatment within eating disorder populations. However, the relative contributions of perfectionism, emotion dysregulation, and self-compassion to the severity of shape/weight concerns and psychosocial impairment remain largely unexplored. In the current study, mediation analyses were conducted to clarify how perfectionism, emotion dysregulation, and self-compassion are linked to shape/weight concerns and psychosocial impairment. The sample was comprised of 85 patients from an outpatient eating disorder clinic. The patients completed self-report measures of perfectionism, self-compassion, emotion dysregulation, eating disorder symptoms, and psychosocial impairment. Specifically, emotion dysregulation was assessed as a mediator in the relationships between (1) perfectionism and shape/weight concerns, (2) self-compassion and shape/weight concerns, (3) perfectionism and psychosocial impairment, and (4) self-compassion and psychosocial impairment. It was postulated that emotion dysregulation would significantly mediate relationships in the former two models. An a priori hypothesis was not constructed in reference to the latter models, as these analyses were preliminary and exploratory in nature. The PROCESS macro for SPSS was utilized to perform these analyses. Emotion dysregulation fully mediated the relationships between perfectionism and eating disorder outcomes. In the link between self-compassion and psychosocial impairment, emotion dysregulation partially mediated this relationship. Finally, emotion dysregulation did not significantly mediate the relationship between self-compassion and shape/weight concerns. The results suggest that emotion dysregulation and self-compassion may be suitable targets to decrease the severity of psychosocial impairment and shape/weight concerns in individuals with eating disorders. Further research is required to determine the stability of these models over time, between diagnostic groups, and in nonclinical samples.

Keywords: eating disorders, emotion dysregulation, perfectionism, self-compassion

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Authors: Nino KItoshvili

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The family is an integral part of society, which plays a major role in the socialization and the formation of a person as a full member of society. The marital conflict even harms family members and finds a different effect on each member of the family, especially on children. There is a significant difference in the behavior of adolescents in conflict and non-conflict families. In times of marital conflict, adolescent psycho-social well-being is significantly dependent on socio-cultural mediating variables such as; Family income; Parenting style; The functioning of the family, and the existence of psycho-social support. In a family with low economic performance, low psychosocial harassment, family dysfunction, and bad parenting style, marital conflict significantly increases the risk of deteriorating adolescent psycho-social well-being. At this time, to support the well-being of the child, a special role is played by improving the marital relationship, which must be supported by state and community services. There are very few family studies in this field in Georgia, the therapeutic direction of the family is at an early stage, and there are no family-supporting psycho-social programs. This increases the chances of adolescent psycho-social well-being deteriorating amd socialization problems. The study will examine the mediating variables of marital conflict and adolescent psycho-social well-being and will attempt to determine their mediating and moderating role. Research suggests that an increase in the rate of marital conflict is associated with a decrease in child well-being. The well-being of children in conflict families is lower than that of children in non-conflict families and depends on the variables of mediating variables. Quantitative research will be conducted to study this phenomenon through a questionnaire developed and standardized in the research process. The study will be attended by families living in Georgia - spouses (married) and their adolescent children. By analyzing the data obtained from the research, we will be able to determine in which cases the intensity of the relationship between the marital conflict and the well-being of the adolescent increases or decreases; To conclude the mediating and moderating role of mediating variables and also to make relevant recommendations to reduce the negative impact on the psycho-social well-being of a child of marital conflict.

Keywords: adolescent, mediation, moderation, conflict, couple, well-being

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Authors: Chang Li-Yu

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Aims: This study investigates the impact of psychological capital on the mental health of economically disadvantaged youth and examines whether family cohesion acts as a mediating variable between psychological capital and mental health. Methods: The sample for the study was drawn from the "Taiwan Poverty Children's Database: Survey on the Living Trends of Disadvantaged Children and Youth." The data analysis methods included descriptive statistics, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling. Results: The results indicated that both psychological capital and family cohesion can significantly negatively predict mental health, with psychological capital significantly positively predicting family cohesion. The mediation effect analysis revealed that family cohesion fully mediates the relationship between psychological capital and mental health, meaning that psychological capital influences mental health through family cohesion. Recommendations: Based on these findings, the study concretely discusses the significance of psychological capital and family cohesion for the mental health of economically disadvantaged youth and offers suggestions for psychological counseling, therapy, and future research.

Keywords: psychological capital, mental health, economically disadvantaged youth, family cohesion

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Authors: Jose L. Diego, Antonio Berlanga, Gregorio López, Diana López

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The Rayuela method is a success story, as it is part of a project selected by the European Commission to face the challenge launched by itself for achieving a better understanding of human factors, as well as social and organisational aspects that are able to solve issues in fighting against crime. Rayuela's method specifically focuses on the drivers of cyber criminality, including approaches to prevent, investigate, and mitigate cybercriminal behavior. As the internet has become an integral part of young people’s lives, they are the key target of the Rayuela method because they (as a victim or as a perpetrator) are the most vulnerable link of the chain. Considering the increased time spent online and the control of their internet usage and the low level of awareness of cyber threats and their potential impact, it is understandable the proliferation of incidents due to human mistakes. 51% of Europeans feel not well informed about cyber threats, and 86% believe that the risk of becoming a victim of cybercrime is rapidly increasing. On the other hand, Law enforcement has noted that more and more young people are increasingly committing cybercrimes. This is an international problem that has considerable cost implications; it is estimated that crimes in cyberspace will cost the global economy $445B annually. Understanding all these phenomena drives to the necessity of a shift in focus from sanctions to deterrence and prevention. As a research project, Rayuela aims to bring together law enforcement agencies (LEAs), sociologists, psychologists, anthropologists, legal experts, computer scientists, and engineers, to develop novel methodologies that allow better understanding the factors affecting online behavior related to new ways of cyber criminality, as well as promoting the potential of these young talents for cybersecurity and technologies. Rayuela’s main goal is to better understand the drivers and human factors affecting certain relevant ways of cyber criminality, as well as empower and educate young people in the benefits, risks, and threats intrinsically linked to the use of the Internet by playing, thus preventing and mitigating cybercriminal behavior. In order to reach that goal it´s necessary an interdisciplinary consortium (formed by 17 international partners) carries out researches and actions like Profiling and case studies of cybercriminals and victims, risk assessments, studies on Internet of Things and its vulnerabilities, development of a serious gaming environment, training activities, data analysis and interpretation using Artificial intelligence, testing and piloting, etc. For facilitating the real implementation of the Rayuela method, as a community policing strategy, is crucial to count on a Police Force with a solid background in trust-building and community policing in order to do the piloting, specifically with young people. In this sense, Valencia Local Police is a pioneer Police Force working with young people in conflict solving, through providing police mediation and peer mediation services and advice. As an example, it is an official mediation institution, so agreements signed by their police mediators have once signed by the parties, the value of a judicial decision.

Keywords: fight against crime and insecurity, avert and prepare young people against aggression, ICT, serious gaming and artificial intelligence against cybercrime, conflict solving and mediation with young people

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Authors: Jaime E. Fernandez, Pablo J. Valverde

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This paper presents a methodological approach that aims to contrast/validate theoretical results from a corruption network game through probabilistic analysis of simulated microdata using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The research develops a public corruption model in a game theory framework. Theoretical results suggest a series of 'optimal settings' of model's exogenous parameters that boost the emergence of corruption. The paper contrasts these outcomes with probabilistic inference results based on BNs adjusted over simulated microdata. Principal findings indicate that probabilistic reasoning based on BNs significantly improves parameter specification and causal analysis in a public corruption game.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, probabilistic reasoning, public corruption, theoretical games

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Authors: N. Taghinejad, F. Dortaj, N. Khodabandeh

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This research aimed at comparing resilience among male and female children with and without parental supervision in Bandar Abbas. The sample consists of 200 subjects selected through cluster sampling. The research method was comparative causal and Conner and Davidson’s questionnaire form resilience was used for data collection. Results indicated that there is no difference between children with and without parental supervision regarding their resilience capacity. These findings may be challenging and useful for psychologists, officials of children’s affairs and legislators.

Keywords: resilience, children , children with parental supervision, children without parental supervision

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Authors: Mahvish Anwaar

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Research Question: In this paper, we explore the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Research Findings: The unbalanced panel data starting from 2000 to 2018 is collected to analyze the causality among banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. The main focus of the study is to check the direction of causality among selected variables. The results of the study support the demand following, supply leading, feedback, and neutrality hypothesis conditional to different measures of banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Theoretical Implication: Jayakumar, Pradhan, Dash, Maradana, and Gaurav (2018) proposed a theoretical model of the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth by using different indicators. So, we empirically test the proposed indicators in our study. This study makes a contribution to the literature by showing the defined relationship between developing and developed countries. Policy Implications: The study covers various policy implications regarding investors to analyze how to properly manage their finances, and government agencies will take help from the present study to find the best and most suitable policies by examining how the economy can grow concerning its finances.

Keywords: competition, stability, economic growth, vector auto-regression, granger causality

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Authors: Laura C. Dapp, Claudia M. Roebers

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Being physically active has many benefits for children and adolescents. It is crucial for various aspects of physical and mental health, the development of a healthy self-concept, and also positively influences academic performance and school achievement. In addressing the still incomplete understanding of the link between physical activity (PA) and academic achievement, the current study scrutinized the open issue of how PA has to be implemented to positively affect mathematical outcomes in N = 138 fourth graders. Therefore, the current study distinguished between structured PA (formal, organized, adult-led exercise and deliberate sports practice) and unstructured PA (non-formal, playful, peer-led physically active play and sports activities). Results indicated that especially structured PA has the potential to contribute to mathematical outcomes. Although children spent almost twice as much time engaging in unstructured PA as compared to structured PA, only structured PA was significantly related to mathematical achievement as well as to mathematical self-concept. Furthermore, the pending issue concerning the quantity of PA needed to enhance children’s mathematical achievement was addressed. As to that, results indicated that the amount of time spent in structured PA constitutes a critical factor in accounting for mathematical outcomes, since children engaging in PA for two hours or more a week were shown to be both the ones with the highest mathematical self-concept as well as those attaining the highest mathematical achievement scores. Finally, the present study investigated the indirect effect of PA on mathematical achievement by controlling for the mathematical self-concept as a mediating variable. The results of a maximum likelihood mediation analysis with a 2’000 resampling bootstrapping procedure for the 95% confidence intervals revealed a full mediation, indicating that PA improves mathematical self-concept, which, in turn, positively affects mathematical achievement. Thus, engaging in high amounts of structured PA constitutes an advantageous leisure activity for children and adolescents, not only to enhance their physical health but also to foster their self-concept in a way that is favorable and encouraging for promoting their academic achievement. Note: The content of this abstract is partially based on a paper published elswhere by the authors.

Keywords: Academic Achievement, Mathematical Performance, Physical Activity, Self-Concept

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Authors: Nicola S. Schutte, John M. Malouff

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Introduction: Curiosity is a positive emotion and motivational state that consists of the desire to know. Curiosity consists of several related dimensions, including a desire for exploration, deprivation sensitivity, and stress tolerance. Creativity involves generating novel and valuable ideas or products. How curiosity may prompt greater creativity remains to be investigated. The phenomena of flow may link curiosity and creativity. Flow is characterized by intense concentration and absorption and gives rise to optimal performance. Objective of Study: The objective of the present study was to investigate whether the phenomenon of flow may link curiosity with creativity. Methods and Design: Fifty-seven individuals from Australia (45 women and 12 men, mean age of 35.33, SD=9.4) participated. Participants were asked to design a program encouraging residents in a local community to conserve water and to record the elements of their program in writing. Participants were then asked to rate their experience as they developed and wrote about their program. Participants rated their experience on the Dimensional Curiosity Measure sub-scales assessing the exploration, deprivation sensitivity, and stress tolerance facets of curiosity, and the Flow Short Scale. Reliability of the measures as assessed by Cronbach's alpha was as follows: Exploration Curiosity =.92, Deprivation Sensitivity Curiosity =.66, Stress Tolerance Curiosity =.93, and Flow=.96. Two raters independently coded each participant’s water conservation program description on creativity. The mixed-model intraclass correlation coefficient for the two sets of ratings was .73. The mean of the two ratings produced the final creativity score for each participant. Results: During the experience of designing the program, all three types of curiosity were significantly associated with the flow. Pearson r correlations were as follows: Exploration Curiosity and flow, r =.68 (higher Exploration Curiosity was associated with more flow); Deprivation Sensitivity Curiosity and flow, r =.39 (higher Deprivation Sensitivity Curiosity was associated with more flow); and Stress Tolerance Curiosity and flow, r = .44 (more stress tolerance in relation to novelty and exploration was associated with more flow). Greater experience of flow was significantly associated with greater creativity in designing the water conservation program, r =.39. The associations between dimensions of curiosity and creativity did not reach significance. Even though the direct relationships between dimensions of curiosity and creativity were not significant, indirect relationships through the mediating effect of the experience of flow between dimensions of curiosity and creativity were significant. Mediation analysis using PROCESS showed that flow linked Exploration Curiosity with creativity, standardized beta=.23, 95%CI [.02,.25] for the indirect effect; Deprivation Sensitivity Curiosity with creativity, standardized beta=.14, 95%CI [.04,.29] for the indirect effect; and Stress Tolerance Curiosity with creativity, standardized beta=.13, 95%CI [.02,.27] for the indirect effect. Conclusions: When engaging in an activity, higher levels of curiosity are associated with greater flow. More flow is associated with higher levels of creativity. Programs intended to increase flow or creativity might build on these findings and also explore causal relationships.

Keywords: creativity, curiosity, flow, motivation

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Alexander Scott English, Yilin Ma, Xiaoying Liu

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The widespread use of artificial intelligence in everyday life has triggered a fervent discussion covering a wide range of areas. However, to date, research on the influence of gender in various segments and factors from a social science perspective is still limited. This study aims to explore whether there are gender differences in human trust in AI for its application in basic everyday life and correlates with human perceived similarity, perceived emotions (including competence and warmth), and attractiveness. We conducted a study involving 321 participants using a two-subject experimental design with a two-factor (masculinized vs. feminized voice of the AI) multiplied by a two-factor (pitch level of the AI's voice) between-subject experimental design. Four contexts were created for the study and randomly assigned. The results of the study showed significant gender differences in perceived similarity, trust, and perceived emotion of the AIs, with females rating them significantly higher than males. Trust was higher in relation to AIs presenting the same gender (e.g., human female to female AI, human male to male AI). Mediation modeling tests indicated that emotion perception and similarity played a sufficiently mediating role in trust. Notably, although trust in AIs was strongly correlated with human gender, there was no significant effect on the gender of the AI. In addition, the study discusses the effects of subjects' age, job search experience, and job type on the findings.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, gender differences, human-robot trust, mediation modeling

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Authors: Anne Davies

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Numerous students matriculating into university programs are surprised to find they are underprepared for the academic challenges of undergraduate studies. In many cases, they are unaware of their weaknesses as a scholar and unsure of how to develop their skills to succeed academically. Hypothesis: Early proactive intervention from faculty and staff members can mitigate academic issues and promote better student success outcomes. Method: After three weeks in their first semester, first-year students struggling-academically were recruited to attend individual weekly remediation sessions to develop effective learning practices. A causal-comparative methodology was used to evaluate their progress as compared to prior students with similar academic performances. Observations: Students welcomed the intervention from faculty and staff to remediate their individual needs. Those who received help in the third week had better outcomes than previous students with comparable performances who did not receive any interventional support. At the end of the semester, most students were back on track to complete their chosen degree programs. Conclusions: Early intervention by faculty and staff can improve the success of students in maintaining their status in their programs. In the future, this program will be incorporated into all first-year experience courses.

Keywords: Academic outcomes, program retention, remediation, undergraduate students

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Authors: Van Trieu, Shouhuai Xu, Yusheng Feng

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Tracking attack trajectories can be difficult, with limited information about the nature of the attack. Even more difficult as attack information is collected by Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) due to the current IDSs having some limitations in identifying malicious and anomalous traffic. Moreover, IDSs only point out the suspicious events but do not show how the events relate to each other or which event possibly cause the other event to happen. Because of this, it is important to investigate new methods capable of performing the tracking of attack trajectories task quickly with less attack information and dependency on IDSs, in order to prioritize actions during incident responses. This paper proposes a two-level graph causality framework for tracking attack trajectories in internet networks by leveraging observable malicious behaviors to detect what is the most probable attack events that can cause another event to occur in the system. Technically, given the time series of malicious events, the framework extracts events with useful features, such as attack time and port number, to apply to the conditional independent tests to detect the relationship between attack events. Using the academic datasets collected by IDSs, experimental results show that the framework can quickly detect the causal pairs that offer meaningful insights into the nature of the internet network, given only reasonable restrictions on network size and structure. Without the framework’s guidance, these insights would not be able to discover by the existing tools, such as IDSs. It would cost expert human analysts a significant time if possible. The computational results from the proposed two-level graph network model reveal the obvious pattern and trends. In fact, more than 85% of causal pairs have the average time difference between the causal and effect events in both computed and observed data within 5 minutes. This result can be used as a preventive measure against future attacks. Although the forecast may be short, from 0.24 seconds to 5 minutes, it is long enough to be used to design a prevention protocol to block those attacks.

Keywords: causality, multilevel graph, cyber-attacks, prediction

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Authors: Hong Wu, Naiji Lu, Chenguang Wang, Xinming Tu

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This article analyzes the causal effects of informal care, mental health, and physical health on falls and other accidents (e.g. traffic accidents) among elderly people. To purge potential reversal causal effects, e.g., past accidents induce more future informal care, we use two-stage least squares to identify the impacts. By using longitudinal data from a representative national China Health and retirement longitudinal study of people aged 45 and older in China, our findings indicate that informal care decreases while poor health conditions increase the occurrence of accidents. We also find heterogeneous impacts on the occurrence of accidents, varying by gender, urban status, and past accident history. Our findings suggest the following three policy implications. First, policy makers who aim to decrease accidents should take informal care to elders into account. Second, ease of birth policy and postponed retirement policy are urgent to meet the demand of informal care. Third, medical policies should attach great importance to not only physical health but also mental health of elderly parents especially for older people with accident history.

Keywords: accident, China, fall, informal care, mental health, physical health

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Authors: Usha Barahmand, Ali Khazaee, Goudarz Sadeghi Hashjin

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Coping motives are considered to be indicators of problematic substance use. The present investigation examined a model with emotional abuse as an antecedent and emotional dysregulation as a mediator leading to substance use. The intent of this study was to examine the associations between various types of childhood maltreatment and motives for substance use. The sample consisted of 72 male opiate users recruited from those enrolled for Methadone Maintenance treatment. Participants responded to measures of childhood maltreatment, emotion dysregulation, and motives for opiate use. All data were analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficients and bootstrap analysis of mediation. Results supported the hypothesis that the experience of emotional abuse in childhood is associated with problems in regulating emotions which in turn correlates with opiate use as a way to cope with negative affect, to enhance positive effect or to obtain social rewards. Bootstrap analysis confirmed the mediating role of emotion dysregulation. Findings support the potential utility of further research into emotion dysregulation and motives as antecedents of problematic opiate use.

Keywords: childhood abuse, emotion dysregulation, motives, substance use

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Authors: Miyoko Taniguchi

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Conflict and violence have prevailed over the last four decades in conflict-affected areas in Muslim Mindanao, despite the signing of several peace agreements between the Philippine government and Islamic separatist insurgents (the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)), and peacebuilding activities on the ground. In the meantime, the peace talks had been facilitated and mediated by international actors such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and its member countries such as Indonesia, and Malaysia, and Japan. In 2014, both the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the MILF finally reached a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CAB) in 2014 under the Aquino III administration, though a Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) based on the CAB was not enacted at the Catholic-majority of the Philippine Congress. After a long process of deliberations at the Congress, Republic Act 11054, known as the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), was enacted in 2018 under the Duterate administration. In the beginning, President Duterte adopted an 'inclusive approach' that involves the MILF, all factions of the MNLF, non-Islamized indigenous peoples, and other influential clan leaders to align all peace processes under a single Bangsamoro peace process. A notable difference from past administrations, there is an explicit recognition of all agreements and legislations based on the rights of each stakeholder. This created a new identity as 'Bangsamoro', the residents of Muslim Mindanao, enhancing political legitimacy. Besides, it should be noted an important role of 'insider mediators' -a platform for the Bangsamoro from diverse sectors attempting to work within their respective organizations in Moro society. Give the above background, this paper aims at probing the effectiveness of insider mediation as one of the alternative approaches for mediation in the peace process. For the objectives, this research uses qualitative methods such as process-tracing and semi-structured interviews from diverse groups of stakeholders at from the state to the regional level, including the government officials involved in peace process under the Presidential Office, rebels (MILF and MNLF), civil society organizations involved in lobbying and facilitating peace process, especially in the legislative process. The key outcomes and findings are that the Insider Mediators Group, formed in 2016, had taken on a significant role in facilitating the achievement of a wider consensus among stakeholders on major Moro issues such as BBL’s passing during the last administration to call for unity among the Bangsamoro. Most of its members are well-educated professionals affiliated with the MILF, the MNLF, and influential clans. One of the group’s biggest achievements has been the lobbying and provision of legal advice to legislators who were not necessarily knowledgeable about the peace process during the deliberation of the bicameral conference of the BBL, which eventually led to its passage. It can be concluded that in the long run, strengthening vertical and horizontal relations between the Moro society and the State and among the Moro peoples that can be viewed as a means to sustainable peace.

Keywords: insider mediation, Mindanao, peace process, Moro Islamic liberation front

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Authors: Alfred Quarcoo

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The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data techniques. An annual data on energy consumption and Economic Growth (proxied by real gross domestic product per capita) spanning from 1990 to 2016 from the World bank index database was used. The results of the Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test shows that the series for all countries are not stationary at levels. However, the log of economic growth in Benin and Congo become stationary after taking the differences of the data, and log of energy consumption become stationary for all countries and Log of economic growth in Kenya and Zimbabwe were found to be stationary after taking the second differences of the panel series. The findings of the Johansen cointegration test demonstrate that the variables Log of Energy Consumption and Log of economic growth are not co-integrated for the cases of Kenya and Zimbabwe, so no long-run relationship between the variables were established in any country. The Granger causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy use to economic growth in Kenya and no causal linkage between Energy consumption and economic growth in Benin, Congo and Zimbabwe.

Keywords: Cointegration, Granger Causality, Sub-Sahara Africa, World Bank Development Indicators

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Authors: Ali Al-Yaaribi, Maria Kavussanu

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Prosocial and antisocial behavior occurs in sport. Prosocial behavior is voluntary behavior intended to help or benefit another individual, while antisocial behavior is behavior intended to harm or disadvantage another individual. Previous sport morality research has investigated primarily antecedents of prosocial and antisocial behavior. However, the potential consequences of these behaviors remain unexplored. The aims of this study were to examine whether: (a) perceived prosocial and antisocial teammate behavior predicts task cohesion and burnout; (b) affect mediate these relationships; and (c) motivational climate moderates any of these effects. Participants were male (n = 96) and female (n = 176) teams sport players (Mage = 21.86, SD = 4.36), who completed questionnaires measuring the aforementioned variables. Mediation analysis (Hayes, 2013) indicated that prosocial teammate behavior positively predicted task cohesion and negatively predicted burnout; these effects were mediated by positive affect. Also, mastery climate moderated the positive effect of prosocial teammate behavior on task cohesion: The effect of antisocial teammate behavior on task cohesion was stronger for players who perceived a higher mastery climate created by their coaches. Performance climate moderated the negative effect of prosocial teammate behavior on burnout: This effect was only significant for players who perceived moderate or low levels of performance team climate. Antisocial teammate behavior negatively predicted task cohesion and positively predicted burnout, and these effects were mediated by negative affect. Also, performance climate moderated the positive effect of antisocial teammate behavior on burnout, such that the effect of antisocial teammate behavior on burnout was stronger for players who perceived a lower performance climate. The research findings shed some light on the potential role of prosocial and antisocial teammate behaviors as well as coach-created motivational climate on influencing players’ affect, task cohesion, and burnout. Coaches should focus on creating a mastery motivational climate and rewarding prosocial behavior while at the same time trying to deter antisocial behavior among teammates in order to enhance positive affect, task cohesion, and prevent experience of negative affect and burnout.

Keywords: mediation, moderation, morality, teams sport

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Authors: Jawaria Zafaror, Najma Iqbal Malik

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The present study has been undertaken to explore the relationship among mild cognitive impairment, loneliness and depression among a convenient sample of old people (N = 100) living in old age homes (n = 50) and family home residence (n = 50). Mild Cognitive Impairment Questionnaire, Depression Subscale of Depression Anxiety Stress Scale and UCLA Loneliness Scales were used. Results revealed that Mild cognitive impairment had a significant positive relationship with depression and loneliness among old people both living in old age homes and family home residences. Results also showed that loneliness was the significant positive predictor of depression. However, t-test analysis revealed that old females had higher depression as compared to old males, but old males suffered a significantly high level of cognitive distortions and loneliness as compared to old females. Mediation analysis suggests that loneliness was the partial mediator between mild cognitive impairment and loneliness among old people. Limitations, suggestions and implications were also discussed.

Keywords: loneliness, mild cognitive impairment, depression, old age

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Authors: K. M. Shahunja, Peter D. Sly, Tahmina Begum, Tuhin Biswas, Abdullah Mamun

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Background: Various associations between different environmental exposures and asthma have been reported in different countries and populations. We aimed to investigate the associations between family, neighbourhood, and psychosocial environmental factors and asthma in Australia by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We analysed the primary research studies conducted in Australia across multiple databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus, and published between 2000 and 2020. The reviews and analyses focused on the overall association of different environmental exposures with the development or exacerbation of asthma symptoms or asthma-related hospital visits. Quality-effect meta-analysis was done to estimate the pooled odds ratio for different environmental exposures for asthma symptoms. Findings: Among the 4,799 unique published articles found, 46 were included here for systematic review and 28 for meta-analysis. Our review found that psychosocial factors, including low socioeconomic condition, maternal depression, mental stress, ethnicity, and discrimination, are associated with asthma symptoms. Pooled analysis was conducted on family and neighbourhood environmental factors and revealed that environmental tobacco smoking (ETS) (OR 1·69, 95% CI 1·19–2.38), synthetic bedding (OR 1·91, 95% CI 1·48–2·47) and gas heaters (OR 1·40, 95% CI 1·12–1·76) had significant overall associations with asthma-symptoms in Australia. Conclusion: Although the studies were heterogeneous, both systematic review and meta-analysis found several psychosocial and family environmental exposures to be significantly associated with asthma symptoms. Further study to identify their causal relationship and modification may reduce asthma symptoms in the Australian population.

Keywords: asthma, Australia, environment, systematic review

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