Search results for: cardiovascular disease policy model

Authors: Abdulsalam Mas’ud

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Though Nigerian Biofuel Policy and Incentive was introduced in 2007, however, little if any is known about the impact of such policy for biodiesel development in Nigeria. It can be argued that lack of raw materials is one of the important factors that hinder the proper implementation of the policy. In line with this argument, this study aims to explore the determinants of smallholder farmers’ intention to adopt Jatropha as raw materials for biodiesel development in northern Nigeria, with Jigawa State as area of study. The determinants proposed for investigation covers personal factors, physical factors, institutional factors, economic factors, risk and uncertainty factors as well as social factors. The validation of the proposed model will have the implication of guiding policymakers towards enhancement of farmers’ participation in the Jatropha project for biodiesel raw materials production. The eventual byproducts of the proposed model validation and implementation will be employment generation, poverty reduction, combating dessert encroachment, economic diversification to renewable energy sources and electricity generation.

Keywords: adoption, biodiesel, factors, jatropha

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Authors: Anita Paddy, Millicent Obodai, Lebbaeus Asamani

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The management of sickle cell disease requires a multidisciplinary team for better outcomes. Thus, literature on the application of the biopsychosocial model for the management and explanation of chronic pain in sickle cell disease (SCD) and other chronic diseases abound. However, there is limited research on the use of the biopsychosocial model, together with a spiritual component (biopsychosocial-spiritual model). The study investigated the extent to which healthcare providers utilized the biopsychosocial-spiritual model in the management of chronic pain to improve the quality of life (QoL) of patients with SCD. This study employed the descriptive survey design involving a consecutive sampling of 261 patients with SCD who were between the ages of 18 to 79 years and were accessing hematological services at the Clinical Genetics Department of the Korle Bu Teaching Hospital. These patients willingly consented to participate in the study by appending their signatures. The theory of integrated quality of life, the gate control theory of pain and the biopsychosocial(spiritual) model were tested. An instrument for the biopsychosocial-spiritual model was developed, with a basis from the literature reviewed, while the World Health Organisation Quality of Life BREF (WHOQoLBref) and the spirituality rating scale were adapted and used for data collection. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (means, standard deviations, frequencies, and percentages) and partial least square structural equation modeling. The study revealed that healthcare providers had a great leaning toward the biological domain of the model compared to the other domains. Hence, participants’ QoL was not fully improved as suggested by the biopsychosocial(spiritual) model. Again, the QoL and spirituality of patients with SCD were quite high. A significant negative impact of spirituality on QoL was also found. Finally, the biosocial domain of the biopsychosocial-spiritual model was the most significant predictor of QoL. It was recommended that policymakers train healthcare providers to integrate the psychosocial-spiritual component in health services. Also, education on SCD and its resultant impact from the domains of the model should be intensified while health practitioners consider utilizing these components fully in the management of the condition.

Keywords: biopsychosocial (spritual), sickle cell disease, quality of life, healthcare, accra

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Authors: W. Soufi, F. Boukli Hacene, S. Ghalem

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease that leads to a progressive and permanent deterioration of nerve cells. This disease is progressively accompanied by an intellectual deterioration leading to psychological manifestations and behavioral disorders that lead to a loss of autonomy. It is the most frequent of degenerative dementia. Alzheimer's disease (AD), which affects a growing number of people, has become a major public health problem in a few years. In the context of the study of the mechanisms governing the evolution of AD disease, we have found that natural flavonoids are good acetylcholinesterase inhibitors that reduce the rate of ßA secretion in neurons. This work is to study the inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) which is an enzyme involved in Alzheimer's disease, by methods of molecular modeling. These results will probably help in the development of an effective therapeutic tool in the fight against the development of Alzheimer's disease. Our goal of the research is to study the inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) by molecular modeling methods.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, acetylcholinesterase, flavonoids, molecular modeling

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Authors: Gilbert Makanda

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The problem of the teaching of mathematics is studied using differential equations. A mathematical model for knowledge acquisition in mathematics is developed. In this study we adopt the mathematical model that is normally used for disease modelling in the teaching of mathematics. It is assumed that teaching is 'infecting' students with knowledge thereby spreading this knowledge to the students. It is also assumed that students who gain this knowledge spread it to other students making disease model appropriate to adopt for this problem. The results of this study show that increasing recruitment rates, learning contact with teachers and learning materials improves the number of knowledgeable students. High dropout rates and forgetting taught concepts also negatively affect the number of knowledgeable students. The developed model is then solved using Matlab ODE45 and \verb"lsqnonlin" to estimate parameters for the actual data.

Keywords: differential equations, knowledge acquisition, least squares, dynamical systems

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Authors: Maria Giovanna Lupo, Marina Camera, Marcello Rattazzi, Nicola Ferri

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A complex interplay among chronic kidney disease, lipid metabolism and aortic calcification has been recognized starting from results of many clinical and experimental studies. Here we investigated the influence of kidney function on PCSK9 levels, both in uremic rats and in clinical observation study, and its potential direct action on cultured smooth muscle cells (SMCs) calcification. In a cohort of 594 subjects enrolled in a single centre, observational, cross-sectional and longitudinal study, a negative association between GFR and plasma PCSK9 was found. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), as co-morbidity, further increased PCSK9 plasma levels. Diet-induced uremic condition in rats, induced aortic calcification and increased total cholesterol and PCSK9 levels in plasma, livers and kidneys. Immunohistochemical analysis confirmed PCSK9 expression in aortic SMCs. SMCs overexpressing PCSK9 (SMCsPCSK9), cultured for 7-days in a pro-calcification environment (2.0mM or 2.4mM inorganic phosphate, Pi) showed a significantly higher extracellular calcium (Ca2+) deposition compared to mocked SMCs. Under the same experimental conditions, the addition of exogenous recombinant PCSK9 did not increase the extracellular calcification of SMCs. By flow cytometry analysis we showed that SMCsPCSK9, in response to 2.4mM Pi, released higher number of extracellular vesicles (EVs) positive for three tetraspanin molecules, such as CD63, CD9, and CD81. EVs derived from SMCsPCSK9 tended to be more enriched in calcium and alkaline phosphatase (ALPL), compared to EVs from mocks SMCs. In conclusion, our study reveals a direct role of PCSK9 on vascular calcification induced by higher inorganic phosphate levels associated to CKD condition. This effect appears to be mediated by a positive effect of endogenous PCSK9 on the release of EVs containing Ca2+ and ALP, which facilitate the deposition inorganic calcium phosphate crystals.

Keywords: PCSK9, calcification, extracellular vesicles, chronic kidney disease

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Authors: Eva Kotlánová

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After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.

Keywords: economic crises in Europe, economic policy, uncertainty, panel analysis regression

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Authors: Afia Naheed, Manmohan Singh, David Lucy

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This work is based on a mathematical as well as statistical study of an SEIJTR deterministic model for the interpretation of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Based on the SARS epidemic in 2003, the parameters are estimated using Runge-Kutta (Dormand-Prince pairs) and least squares methods. Possible graphical and numerical techniques are used to validate the estimates. Then effect of the model parameters on the dynamics of the disease is examined using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity and uncertainty analytical techniques are used in order to analyze the affect of the uncertainty in the obtained parameter estimates and to determine which parameters have the largest impact on controlling the disease dynamics.

Keywords: infectious disease, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, Runge-Kutta methods, Levenberg-Marquardt method

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Authors: Keshavamurthy Ganapathy Bhat, Manvinderpal Singh Marwaha

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Background: Coronary artery Disease (CAD) is a common cause of morbidity, mortality and reason for unfitness amongst aircrew. Coronary angioplasty and stenting are the standard of care for CAD. Antiplatelet drugs like Aspirin and Clopidogrel(Dual Antiplatelet therapy) are routinely prescribed post-stenting which are permitted for flying. However, in the recent past, Ticagrelor is being used in place of Clopidogrel as per ACC AHA and ESC guidelines. However Ticagrelor is not permitted for flying. Case Presentation: A 55-year-old pilot suffered Anterior Wall Myocardial Infarction. Angiography showed blockages in Left Anterior Descending Artery(LAD) and Right coronary artery (RCA). He underwent primary angioplasty and stenting LAD and subsequent stenting to RCA. Recovery was uneventful. One year later he was asymptomatic with normal Left ventricular function and no reversible perfusion defect on stress MPI. He had patent stents and coronaries on check angiogram. However, he was not allowed to fly since he was on Ticagrelor. He had to be switched over to Clopidogrel from Ticagrelor one year after stenting to permit him for flying. Similarly, switching had to be done in a 45-year-old pilot. Ticagrelor has been proven to be more effective than clopidogrel and as safe as Clopidogrel in preventing stent thrombosis. If Clopidogrel is being permitted, there is no need to restrict Ticagrelor. Hence "Policy" needs to be changed. Conclusions: Dual Antiplatelet therapy is the standard of care post coronary stenting which has been proved safe and effective. Policy needs to be changed to permit flying with Ticagrelor which is more effective than Clopidogrel and equally safe.

Keywords: antiplatelet drugs, coronary artery disease, stenting, ticagrelor

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Authors: Vichai Tienthavorn

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Background: Recently, the patients of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are increasing in Thailand; especially hypertension and diabetes. Hypertension and Diabetes patients were found to be of 3.7 million in 2008. The varieties of human behaviors have been extensively changed in health. Hence, Thai Government has a policy to reduce NCDs. Generally, primary care plays an important role in treatment using medical process. However, NCDs patients have not been decreased. Objectives: This study not only reduce the patient and mortality rate but also increase the quality of life, could apply in different areas and propose to be the national policy, effectively for a long term operation. Methods: Here we report that primary health care (PHC), which is a primary process to screening, rapidly seek the person's risk. The screening tool of the study was Vichai's 7 color balls model, the medical education tool to transfer knowledge from student health team to community through health volunteers, creating community engagement in terms of social participation. It was found that people in community were realized in their health and they can evaluate the level of risk using this model. Results: Projects implementation (2015) in Nong Lom Health Center in Phayao (target group 15-65 years, 2529); screening hypertension coveraged 99.01%, risk group (light green) was decreased to normal group (white) from 1806 to 1893, significant severe patient (red) was decreased to moderate (orange) from 10 to 5. Health Program in behaving change with best practice of 3Es (Eating, Exercise, Emotion) and 3Rs (Reducing tobacco, alcohol, obesity) were applied in risk group; and encourage strictly medication, investigation in severe patient (red). Conclusion: This is the first demonstration of knowledge transfer to community engagement by student, which is the sustainable education in PHC.

Keywords: non-communicable disease, surveillance control and prevention systems, community engagement, primary health care

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Authors: Adekunle Kolawole Ojo, Idowu Peter Adebayo, Egwuche Sylvester O.

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Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality across developed and developing nations and is associated with increased risk. There are no existing electronic means of capturing and monitoring CKD in Nigeria. The work is aimed at developing a spatial data model that can be used to implement renal registries required for tracking and monitoring the spatial distribution of renal diseases by public health officers and patients. In this study, we have developed a spatial data model for a functional renal registry.

Keywords: renal registry, health informatics, chronic kidney disease, interface

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Authors: Muhammad Kamran Hanif Khan, Fahad Mushtaq

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Background: In both developed and underdeveloped countries, coronary artery disease (CAD) is a serious cause of death and disability. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is becoming more prevalent in emerging countries like Pakistan due to the spread and acceptance of Western lifestyles. Material and Methods: An observational cross-sectional investigation was conducted, and data collection relied on a random cluster sampling method. The sample size for this cross-sectional study was calculated using the following factors: estimated true proportion of 17.5%, desired precision of 2%, and confidence interval of 95%. The data for this study was collected from a sample of 1387 adults. Results: The average age of those living in rural areas is 55.24 years, compared to 52.60 years for those living in urban areas. The mean fasting blood glucose of the urban participants is 105.28 mg/dL, which is higher than the mean fasting blood glucose of the rural participants, which is 102.06 mg/dL. The mean total cholesterol of the urban participants is 192.20 mg/dL, which is slightly higher than the mean total cholesterol of the rural participants, which is 191.97 mg/dL. CAD prevalence is greater in urban areas than in rural areas. ECG abnormalities prevalence is 16.1% in females compared to 12.5% in men. Conclusion: The prevalence of CAD is more common in urban areas than in rural ones for all of the measures of CAD used in the study.

Keywords: CVD prevalence, CVD risk factors, rural area, urban area

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Authors: Lingxia Li, Frédéric Schnell, Shuzhe Ding, Solène Le Douairon Lahaye

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Background: The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in different triathlon sports disciplines has not been determined. Purpose: The present study aimed to determine the prevalence of CVD in world-class triathletes according to their sex, sports disciplines (aquathlon, duathlon, triathlon…), and formats (short/medium, long, and ultra-long distance). Methods: Male and female elite athletes from eleven triathlon sport disciplines, ranked in the internationally yearly top 10 between 2006 and 2019, were included. The athlete’s name was associated in a Google search with selected key terms related to heart disease and/or cardiac abnormalities. The prevalence and the hazard function of the variation were calculated, and the differences were then compared. Results: From 1329 athletes (male 639, female 690), 13 cases of CVD (0.98%, 95% CI: [0.45-1.51]) were identified, and the mean age of their occurrence was 29±6 years. Although no sex differences were found in each sport discipline/format (p > 0.05), severe outcomes (sudden cardiac arrest/death and those who had to stop their sports practice) were only observed in males. Short-distance triathlon (5.08%, 95% CI: [1.12-9.05]) was more affected than other disciplines in short/medium, long, and ultra-long formats. The prevalence of CVD in athletes who participated in multi-type of sports disciplines (4.14%, 95% CI: [1.14-7.15]) was higher than in those who participated in one type (0.52%, 95% CI: [0.10-0.93]) (p = 0.0004). Conclusion: Athletes in short-distance triathlon were more affected than other disciplines in short/medium, long and ultra-long formats. Athletes who participate in short/medium distances and those who participate in multi-type of sports disciplines should be closely monitored regardless of sex.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, sudden cardiac death, triathlon sport disciplines, world-class athletes

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Authors: Albert T. Akume, P. D. Dahida

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This paper examines the effect of various epochs of governments on policy making in Nigeria. The character of governance and public policy making of both epochs was exclusive, non-participatory and self-centric. As a consequence the interests of citizenry were not represented, neither protected nor sought to meet fairly the needs of all groups. The introduction of the post-1999 democratic government demand that the hitherto skewed pattern of policy making cease to be a character of governance. Hence, the need for citizen participation in the policy making process. The question then is what mode is most appropriate to engender public participation so as to make the policy making process functional? Given the prevailing social, economic and political dilemmas the utilization of the direct mode of citizen participation to affect policy outcome is doubtful if not unattainable. It is due to these predicament that this paper uses the documentary research design argues for the utilization of the indirect mode of citizen participation in the policy making process so as to affect public policy outcome appropriately and with less cost, acrimony and delays.

Keywords: governance, public policy, participation, representation, civil society

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Authors: M. M. Rahman, A. Liu, A. Frostegard, J. Frostegard

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The human immune system plays an essential role in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and atherosclerosis. Our earlier studies showed that major immunocompetent cells including T cells are activated by phosphorylcholine epitope. Further, we have determined for the first time in a clinical cohort that antibodies against phosphorylcholine (anti-PC) are negatively and independently associated with the development of atherosclerosis and thus a low risk of cardiovascular diseases. It is still unknown whether activated T cells play a role in anti-PC production. Here we aim to clarify the role of T cells in anti-PC production. B cell alone, or with CD3 T, CD4 T or with CD8 T cells were cultured in polystyrene plates to examine anti-PC IgM production. In addition to mixed B cell with CD3 T cell culture, B cells with CD3 T cells were also cultured in transwell co-culture plates. Further, B cells alone and mixed B cell with CD3 T cell cultures with or without anti-HLA 2 antibody were cultured for 6 days. Anti-PC IgM was detected by ELISA in independent experiments. More than 8 fold higher levels of anti-PC IgM were detected by ELISA in mixed B cell with CD3 T cell cultures in comparison to B cells alone. After the co-culture of B and CD3 T cells in transwell plates, there were no increased antibody levels indicating that B and T cells need to interact to augment anti-PC IgM production. Furthermore, anti-PC IgM was abolished by anti-HLA 2 blocking antibody in mixed B and CD3 T cells culture. In addition, the lack of increased anti-PC IgM in mixed B with CD8 T cells culture and the increased levels of anti-PC in mixed B with CD4 T cells culture support the role of helper T cell for the anti-PC IgM production. Atherosclerosis is a major cause of cardiovascular diseases, but anti-PC IgM is a protection marker for atherosclerosis development. Understanding the mechanism involved in the anti-PC IgM regulation could play an important role in strategies to raise anti-PC IgM. Studies suggest that anti-PC is T-cell independent antibody, but our study shows the major role of T cell in anti-PC IgM production. Activation of helper T cells by immunization could be a possible mechanism for raising anti-PC levels.

Keywords: anti-PC, atherosclerosis, aardiovascular diseases, phosphorylcholine

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Authors: Nattapol Pourprasert

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This study has an objective to analyze foreign policy of member states in globalization current, aiming to answer that the foreign policy of member states have been changed or remained the same and there are any factors affecting changing of foreign policy of the member states. From the study results, it is found that the foreign policy of Thailand is a friendly foreign policy with all states. The policy of Indonesia is more opened because of a change in leader, allowing more democratic development in the country; the government has proceeded with friendly foreign policy with the states in order to bring funds into the state. The foreign policy of Malaysia is not much changed as there is no changing in the leader; the policy of Malaysia has reconciled relations with main city of Indian and Chinese residing in the country in order to bring investments into the country and to relieve tensions in the country. The foreign policy of the Philippines has proceeded with policy under the ASEAN framework and emphasized on international Islam communities. The foreign policy of Singapore has the least changed as the Singapore's policy focuses on internal trade since the state was found. As for the foreign policy of Brunei Darussalam, Brunei has a little role in the international stage; the state having closest relationship as from the view of history is Singapore as the Singaporean has invested in retailing business in Brunei. The foreign policy of Vietnam has emphasized on an omnidirectional foreign policy in order to compete with several states in global stage. The foreign policy of Myanmar has proceeded with a friendly foreign policy with all ASEAN member states, the East-west Corridor transportation line from Myanmar through Thailand and Lao to Vietnam has been developed. As for the foreign policy of Lao, In 2001, the Thai government and Lao government held a discussion which Thailand reaffirmed the position not to support the anti-Lao group. The foreign policy of Cambodia has proceeded with more openness, having good relation with China, Russia and USA as these states has invested in the state, especially the US company.

Keywords: globalization, public policy analysis, foreign policy, ASEAN member states

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Authors: Duhania O. Mahara, Santi W. Purnami, Aulia N. Fitria, Merissa N. Z. Wirontono, Revina Musfiroh, Shofi Andari, Sagiran Sagiran, Estiana Khoirunnisa, Wahyudi Widada

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For assessing interventions in numerous disease areas, the use of multiple time-to-event outcomes is common. An individual might experience two different events called bivariate time-to-event data, the events may be correlated because it come from the same subject and also influenced by individual characteristics. The bivariate time-to-event case can be applied by copula-based bivariate Cox survival model, using the Clayton and Frank copulas to analyze the dependence structure of each event and also the covariates effect. By applying this method to modeling the recurrent event infection of hemodialysis insertion on chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, from the AIC and BIC values we find that the Clayton copula model was the best model with Kendall’s Tau is (τ=0,02).

Keywords: bivariate cox, bivariate event, copula function, survival copula

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Authors: T. Vandeyar

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The purpose of this study is to explore how Government policy on ICT influences teaching and learning in South African schools. An instrumental case study using backward mapping principles as a strategy of inquiry was used. Utilizing a social constructivist lens and guided by a theoretical framework of a sociocultural approach to policy analysis, this exploratory qualitative research study set out to investigate how teachers appropriate government policy on ICT in South African schools. Three major findings emanated from this study. First, although teachers were ignorant of the national e-education policy their professionalism and agency were key in formulating and implementing an e-education policy in practice. Second, teachers repositioned themselves not as recipients or reactors of the e-education policy but as social and cultural actors of policy appropriation and formulation. Third, the lack of systemic support to teachers catalyzed improved school and teacher collaborations, teachers became drivers of ICT integration through collaboration, innovation, institutional practice and institutional leadership.

Keywords: ICT, teachers as change agents, practice as policy, teacher's beliefs, teacher's attitudes

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Authors: Hadj Abd El Kader Benghenia, Fethi Bereksi Reguig

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In clinical medicine, blood pressure, raised blood hemodynamic monitoring is rich pathophysiological information of cardiovascular system, of course described through factors such as: blood volume, arterial compliance and peripheral resistance. In this work, we are interested in analyzing these signals to propose a detection algorithm to delineate the different sequences and especially systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and the wave and dicrotic to do their analysis in order to extract the cardiovascular parameters.

Keywords: blood pressure, SBP, DBP, detection algorithm

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Authors: Wassie Molla, Klaas Frankena, Mart De Jong

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Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe viral disease of cattle, which often occurs in epidemic form. It is caused by lumpy skin disease virus of the genus capripoxvirus of family poxviridae. Mathematical models play important role in the study of infectious diseases epidemiology. They help to explain the dynamics and understand the transmission of an infectious disease within a population. Understanding the transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease between animals is important for the implementation of effective prevention and control measures against the disease. This study was carried out in central and north-western part of Ethiopia with the objectives to understand LSD outbreak dynamics, quantify the transmission between animals and herds, and estimate the disease reproduction ratio in dominantly crop-livestock mixed and commercial herd types. Field observation and follow-up study were undertaken, and the transmission parameters were estimated based on a SIR epidemic model in which individuals are susceptible (S), infected and infectious (I), and recovered and immune or dead (R) using the final size and generalized linear model methods. The result showed that a higher morbidity was recorded in infected crop-livestock (24.1%) mixed production system herds than infected commercial production (17.5%) system herds whereas mortality was higher in intensive (4.0%) than crop-livestock (1.5%) system and the differences were statistically significant. The transmission rate among animals and between herds were 0.75 and 0.68 per week, respectively in dominantly crop-livestock production system. The transmission study undertaken in dominantly crop-livestock production system highlighted the presence of statistically significant seasonal difference in LSD transmission among animals. The reproduction numbers of LSD in dominantly crop-livestock production system were 1.06 among animals and 1.28 between herds whereas it varies from 1.03 to 1.31 among animals in commercial production system. Though the R estimated for LSD in different production systems at different localities is greater than 1, its magnitude is low implying that the disease can be easily controlled by implementing the appropriate control measures.

Keywords: commercial, crop-livestock, Ethiopia, LSD, reproduction number, transmission

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Authors: Deepti Kohli, Meeta Keswani Mehra

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The paper develops a theoretical model of electoral competition with purely opportunistic candidates and a uni-dimensional policy using the probability voting approach while focusing on the aspect of lobby formation to analyze the inherent complex interactions between centripetal and centrifugal forces and their effects on equilibrium policy platforms. There exist three types of agents, namely, Left-wing, Moderate and Right-wing who comprise of the total voting population. Also, it is assumed that the Left and Right agents are free to initiate a lobby of their choice. If initiated, these lobbies generate donations which in turn can be contributed to one (or both) electoral candidates in order to influence them to implement the lobby’s preferred policy. Four different lobby formation scenarios have been considered: no lobby formation, only Left, only Right and both Left and Right. The equilibrium policy platforms, amount of individual donations by agents to their respective lobbies and the contributions offered to the electoral candidates have been solved for under each of the above four cases. Since it is assumed that the agents cannot coordinate each other’s actions during the lobby formation stage, there exists a probability with which a lobby would be formed, which is also solved for in the model. The results indicate that the policy platforms of the two electoral candidates converge completely under the cases of no lobby and both (extreme) formations but diverge under the cases of only one (Left or Right) lobby formation. This is because in the case of no lobby being formed, only the centripetal forces (emerging from the election-winning aspect) are present while in the case of both extreme (Left-wing and Right-wing) lobbies being formed, centrifugal forces (emerging from the lobby formation aspect) also arise but cancel each other out, again resulting in a pure policy convergence phenomenon. In contrast, in case of only one lobby being formed, both centripetal and centrifugal forces interact strategically, leading the two electoral candidates to choose completely different policy platforms in equilibrium. Additionally, it is found that in equilibrium, while the donation by a specific agent type increases with the formation of both lobbies in comparison to when only one lobby is formed, the probability of implementation of the policy being advocated by that lobby group falls.

Keywords: electoral competition, equilibrium policy platforms, lobby formation, opportunistic candidates

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control

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Authors: Caner Yilmaz, Zuhal Didem Takinaci

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Introduction: Today, our knowledge about the effects of physical activity performed at the different intensity of the cardiovascular system are still not clear. Therefore, to contribute to the literature, in our study, sedentary individuals and amateur athletes were assessed in a single session with the aim of evaluating the cardiovascular effects of the moderate and severe exercise. Methods: 80 participants (40 amateur athletes and 40 sedentary, young adults) participated in our study. Participants were divided into two groups: amateur athletes (mean age: 25.0 ± 3.6 yrs) and sedentary in group II (mean age: 23.8 ± 3.7 yrs). Participants in both groups were assessed twice, namely, firstly, at moderate intensity (5km/h 30 min. walking) and secondly at the vigorous intensity (8km/h 20 min. jogging). Participants’ SBP (Systolic Blood Pressure), DBP (Diastolic Blood Pressure), HR (Heart Rate), SpO₂ (Oxygen Saturation), BT (Body Temperature) and RR (Respiratory Rate) were measured. Results: In our study, the findings showed that after moderate-intensity aerobic exercise, change in SBP, DBP, and SpO₂ were significantly higher in Group II (p < 0.05). After the severe intensity aerobic exercises, change in SBP, SpO₂, HR, and RR was significantly higher in Group II (p < 0.05). The BORG score of Group II was significantly higher after both moderate and severe intensity aerobic exercise (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The cardiovascular responses of amateur athletes were closer to initial values, and the differences between the two groups were increased in direct proportion to the intensity of the exercise. Both exercise intensities could be adequate.

Keywords: aerobic, exercise, sedantary, cardi̇ovascular

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Authors: S. Fazelifar, M. Ghasemi

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Aim: Recent studies on cardiovascular risk factors have been focused on the new markers of inflammatory diseases such as C-reactive protein (CRP). Research evidence shows that physical activity along with other factors such as reduced smoking, controlling blood pressure, control blood lipids TC, LDL-c, HDL-c and having a healthy weight can reduce the risk of chronic heart disease (CHD) .Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the effect of twelve weeks aerobic exercise and consumption of apple vinegar on cardiovascular risk factor in older women. Methodology: 28 inactive women (mean body weight 72.13 ± 8.6 kg, height 157 ± 7.4cm, age 48.06 ± 5.18 years and BMI 28.2 ± 3.2 kg/m2) by recall and notice of investigation, among of the eligible voters recruited and randomly divided in 4 groups: control, apple vinegar, exercise, exercise + apple vinegar. The training program includes a 20-minute warm-up and stretching, running for 15 minutes in the first session with an intensity of 80% of maximum heart rate and an increase in one-minute run time in next training session. Also, subjects in experimental groups received daily specified amount of 50 ml apple vinegar. Blood samples were collected from the brachial vein in before and after training to measure CRP and blood lipids (cholesterol, HDL, VLDL, LDL). The levels of CRP were measured by ELISA way. K-S test to determine the normality of the data and analysis of variance for repeated measures was used to analyze the data. A significant difference in the p < 0/05 accepted. Results: The results indicated that individual characteristics including height, weight, age, and body mass index were not significantly different among the four groups. The results showed that levels of CRP and LDL cholesterol were significantly reduced in all groups at post-test compared to the pre-test. The HDL levels increased significantly in all groups in post-test compared to the pre-test. Analysis of the data indicates that levels of CRP, TC, and LDL were significantly reduced in all groups compared to the control group, while the changes in the other groups were not significant relative to each other. Conclusion: Results of this study showed that twelve weeks of aerobic exercise with apple vinegar cause a significant decrease in CRP, cholesterol, LDL, and significantly increased HDL levels. According to the results of this study, it is possible that aerobic exercise with apple vinegar can inhibit CRP and undesirable fats. Considering the strong association between the inflammatory indices and the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, every factor that decreases these indices can reduce the cardiovascular complications.

Keywords: aerobic exercise, apple vinegar, CRP, older women

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Authors: Avhasei Dorothy Rasifudi, Josephine Mandizha

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Cardiovascular risk factors continue to be the leading cause of death in the majority of developed and developing countries. In 2011, the World Health Organization reported that every year an estimated 17 million people globally die of CVD, representing 30% of all global deaths, particularly caused by heart attacks and strokes. The purpose of the study was to determine and describe the prevalence of selected cardiovascular risk factors among university of Venda staff. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 100 staff aged 20-65 years. The anthropometric measurements were conducted in accordance to and with standardized procedures advocated by the International Society for the Advanced Kinanthropometry. Weight, Height, waist circumference and hip circumference were measured for calculation of body mass index and waist-hip ratio. Blood pressure was measured using a Heine cuff and sphygmomanometer. Questionnaire was administered to gather demographic details and cardiovascular risk factors of hypertension and obesity. Data were analyzed using mean and standard deviation. The parameter t-test was applied to test significance level at p ≤ 0.05 between sexes. The statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. The prevalence of hypertension was 23% with the highest prevalence amongst those aged 40 years and above. Factors found to be to be significantly associated with hypertension were gender, age, physical inactivity and family history. Prevalence of obesity was 43%, with the highest prevalence among those aged 40 years. The factors associated with obesity were diet, age and physical activity. The prevalence of hypertension and obesity in the study were high.

Keywords: cardiovascular, prevalence, risk factors, staff

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Authors: M. Zeitoun, K. Abdallah, M. Rashwan

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Introduction: A growing body of evidence indicates that apelin, a relatively recent member of the adipokines family, has a potential anti-atherogenic effect. An association between low serum apelin state and coronary artery disease (CAD) was previously reported; however, the relationship between apelin and the atherosclerotic burden was unclear. Objectives: Our aim was to explore the correlation of serum apelin level with coronary calcium score (CCS) as a quantitative marker of coronary atherosclerosis. Methods: This observational cross-sectional study enrolled 100 consecutive subjects referred for cardiac multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) for assessment of CAD (mean age 54 ± 9.7 years, 51 male and 49 females). Clinical parameters, glycemic and lipid profile, high sensitivity CRP (hsCRP), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), serum creatinine and complete blood count were assessed. Serum apelin levels were determined using a commercially available Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) Kit. High-resolution non-contrast CT images were acquired by a 64-raw MDCT and CCS was calculated using the Agatston scoring method. Results: Forty-three percent of the studied subjects had positive coronary artery calcification (CAC). The mean CCS was 79 ± 196.5 Agatston units. Subjects with detectable CAC had significantly higher fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, and WBCs count than subjects without detectable CAC (p < 0.05). Most importantly, subjects with detectable CAC had significantly lower serum apelin level than subjects without CAC (1.3 ± 0.4 ng/ml vs. 2.8 ± 0.6 ng/ml, p < 0.001). In addition, there was a statistically significant inverse correlation between serum apelin levels and CCS (r = 0.591, p < 0.001); on multivariate analysis this correlation was found to be independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and hs-CRP. Conclusion:To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of an independent association between apelin and CCS in patients with suspected CAD. Apelin emerges as a possible novel biomarker for CAD, but this result remains to be proved prospectively.

Keywords: HbA1c, apelin, adipokines, coronary calcium score (CCS), coronary artery disease (CAD)

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Authors: Zakirul Islam, Yugo Kumokawa, Quoc Thinh Tran, Motoki Kubo

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Clubroot is a disease of cruciferous plant caused by soil born pathogen Plasmodiophora brassicae and can significantly limit the production through rapid spreading. The present study was designed to investigate the effect of cultivation practices (chemical and organic soils) on clubroot disease development in Brassica rapa. Disease index and root bacterial composition were investigated for both chemical and organic soils. The bacterial biomass and diversity in organic soil were higher than those in chemical soil. Disease severity was distinct for two different cultivation methods. The number of endophytic bacteria decreased in the infected root for both soils. The increased number of endophytic bacterial number led to reduce the proliferation of pathogen spore inside the root and thus reduced the disease severity in organic plants.

Keywords: clubroot disease, bacterial biomass, root infection, disease index, chemical cultivation, organic cultivation

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Authors: Modi Alsubaie, Chris Dickens, Barnaby Dunn, Andy Gibson, Obioha Ukoumunned, Alison Evans, Rachael Vicary, Manish Gandhi, Willem Kuyken

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Background: Depression co-occurs in 20% of people with cardiovascular disorders, can persist for years and predicts worse physical health outcomes. While psychosocial treatments have been shown to effectively treat acute depression in those with comorbid cardiovascular disorders, to date there has been no evaluation of approaches aiming to prevent relapse and treat residual depression symptoms in this group. Therefore, the current study aimed to examine the feasibility and acceptability of a randomised controlled trial design evaluating an adapted version of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) designed specifically for people with co-morbid depression and cardiovascular disorders. Methods: A 3-arm feasibility randomised controlled trial was conducted, comparing MBCT adapted for people with cardiovascular disorders plus treatment as usual (TAU), mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) plus TAU, and TAU alone. Participants completed a set of self-report measures of depression severity, anxiety, quality of life, illness perceptions, mindfulness, self-compassion and affect and had their blood pressure taken immediately before, immediately after, and three months following the intervention. Those in the adapted-MBCT arm additionally underwent a qualitative interview to gather their views about the adapted intervention. Results: 3400 potentially eligible participants were approached when attending an outpatient appointment at a cardiology clinic or via a GP letter following a case note search. 242 (7.1%) were interested in taking part, 59 (1.7%) were screened as being suitable, and 33 (<1%) were eventually randomised to the three groups. The sample was heterogeneous in terms of whether they reported current depression or had a history of depression and the time since the onset of cardiovascular disease (one to 25 years). Of 11 participants randomised to adapted MBCT seven completed the full course, levels of home mindfulness practice were high, and positive qualitative feedback about the intervention was given. Twenty-nine out of 33 participants randomised completed all the assessment measures at all three-time points. With regards to the primary outcome (depression), five out of the seven people who completed the adapted MBCT and three out of five under MBSR showed significant clinical change, while in TAU no one showed any clinical change at the three-month follow-up. Conclusions: The adapted MBCT intervention was feasible and acceptable to participants. However, aspects of the trial design were not feasible. In particular, low recruitment rates were achieved, and there was a high withdrawal rate between screening and randomisation. Moreover, the heterogeneity in the sample was high meaning the adapted intervention was unlikely to be well tailored to all participants needs. This suggests that if the decision is made to move to a definitive trial, study recruitment procedures will need to be revised to more successfully recruit a target sample that optimally matches the adapted intervention.

Keywords: mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT), depression, cardiovascular disorders, feasibility, acceptability

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Authors: Muhammad Khaliqi, Amzul Rifin, Andriyono Kilat Adhi

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The non-tariff policy could make Indonesian shrimp exports decrease in the international market. This research was aimed to analyze factors affecting Indonesia's exports of shrimp and the impact of SPS and TBT policy on Indonesian shrimp. Factors affecting the exports of Indonesian shrimp were estimated using gravity model. The results showed the GDP of exporters and exchange rate, have a negative influence against the export of Indonesia’s shrimp exports. The GDP of the importers and trade cost have a positive influence against the export of shrimp Indonesia while the SPS policy and TBT don’t affect Indonesia's exports of shrimp in the international market.

Keywords: gravity model, international trade, non-tariff measure, sanitary and phytosanitary, shrimp, technical barriers to trade

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Muneeb Ullah, Daishihan, Xiadong Young

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Deep learning plays a crucial role in identifying COVID-19 and preventing its spread. To improve the accuracy of COVID-19 diagnoses, it is important to have access to a sufficient number of training images of CXRs (chest X-rays) depicting the disease. However, there is currently a shortage of such images. To address this issue, this paper introduces COVID-19 GAN, a model that uses generative adversarial networks (GANs) to generate realistic CXR images of COVID-19, which can be used to train identification models. Initially, a generator model is created that uses digressive channels to generate images of CXR scans for COVID-19. To differentiate between real and fake disease images, an efficient discriminator is developed by combining the dense connectivity strategy and instance normalization. This approach makes use of their feature extraction capabilities on CXR hazy areas. Lastly, the deep regret gradient penalty technique is utilized to ensure stable training of the model. With the use of 4,062 grape leaf disease images, the Leaf GAN model successfully produces 8,124 COVID-19 CXR images. The COVID-19 GAN model produces COVID-19 CXR images that outperform DCGAN and WGAN in terms of the Fréchet inception distance. Experimental findings suggest that the COVID-19 GAN-generated CXR images possess noticeable haziness, offering a promising approach to address the limited training data available for COVID-19 model training. When the dataset was expanded, CNN-based classification models outperformed other models, yielding higher accuracy rates than those of the initial dataset and other augmentation techniques. Among these models, ImagNet exhibited the best recognition accuracy of 99.70% on the testing set. These findings suggest that the proposed augmentation method is a solution to address overfitting issues in disease identification and can enhance identification accuracy effectively.

Keywords: classification, deep learning, medical images, CXR, GAN.

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