Search results for: Dinesh Nath

Authors: Brindha Senthil Kumar, Payel Chakraborty, Senthil Kumar Nachimuthu, Arindam Maitra, Prem Nath

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Gastric cancer is predominantly caused by demographic and diet factors as compared to other cancer types. The aim of the study is to predict Early Gastric Cancer (ECG) from diet and lifestyle factors using supervised machine learning algorithms. For this study, 160 healthy individual and 80 cases were selected who had been followed for 3 years (2016-2019), at Civil Hospital, Aizawl, Mizoram. A dataset containing 11 features that are core risk factors for the gastric cancer were extracted. Supervised machine algorithms: Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer perceptron, and Random Forest were used to analyze the dataset using Python Jupyter Notebook Version 3. The obtained classified results had been evaluated using metrics parameters: minimum_false_positives, brier_score, accuracy, precision, recall, F1_score, and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Data analysis results showed Naive Bayes - 88, 0.11; Random Forest - 83, 0.16; SVM - 77, 0.22; Logistic Regression - 75, 0.25 and Multilayer perceptron - 72, 0.27 with respect to accuracy and brier_score in percent. Naive Bayes algorithm out performs with very low false positive rates as well as brier_score and good accuracy. Naive Bayes algorithm classification results in predicting ECG showed very satisfactory results using only diet cum lifestyle factors which will be very helpful for the physicians to educate the patients and public, thereby mortality of gastric cancer can be reduced/avoided with this knowledge mining work.

Keywords: Early Gastric cancer, Machine Learning, Diet, Lifestyle Characteristics

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Authors: S. Vadivukkarasi, K. Karthi, M. Karthick, C. Dinesh, S. Santhosh, A. Yogaraj

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The appointment system was designed to minimize patient’s idle time overlooking patients waiting time in hospitals. This is no longer valid in today’s consumer oriented society. Long waiting times for treatment in the outpatient department followed by short consultations has long been a complaint. Nowadays, customers use waiting time as a decisive factor in choosing a service provider. Queuing theory constitutes a very powerful tool because queuing models require relatively little data and are simple and fast to use. Because of this simplicity and speed, modelers can be used to quickly evaluate and compare various alternatives for providing service. The application of queuing models in the analysis of health care systems is increasingly accepted by health care decision makers. Timely access to care is a key component of high-quality health care. However, patient delays are prevalent throughout health care systems, resulting in dissatisfaction and adverse clinical consequences for patients as well as potentially higher costs and wasted capacity for providers. Arguably, the most critical delays for health care are the ones associated with health care emergencies. The allocation of resources can be divided into three general areas: bed management, staff management, and room facility management. Effective and efficient patient flow is indicated by high patient throughput, low patient waiting times, a short length of stay at the hospital and overtime, while simultaneously maintaining adequate staff utilization rates and low patient’s idle times.

Keywords: appointment system, patient scheduling, bed management, queueing calculation, system analysis

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Authors: Rahul Paul, Kedar Nath Das

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The paradigm of Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become prominent in training intelligent agents to make decisions in environments that are both dynamic and uncertain. The primary objective of RL is to optimize the policy of an agent in order to maximize the cumulative reward it receives throughout a given period. Nevertheless, the process of optimization presents notable difficulties as a result of the inherent trade-off between exploration and exploitation, the presence of extensive state-action spaces, and the intricate nature of the dynamics involved. Evolutionary Optimization Methods (EOMs) have garnered considerable attention as a supplementary approach to tackle these challenges, providing distinct capabilities for optimizing RL policies and value functions. The ongoing advancement of research in both RL and EOMs presents an opportunity for significant advancements in autonomous decision-making systems. The convergence of these two fields has the potential to have a transformative impact on various domains of artificial intelligence (AI) applications. This article highlights the considerable influence of EOMs in enhancing the capabilities of RL. Taking advantage of evolutionary principles enables RL algorithms to effectively traverse extensive action spaces and discover optimal solutions within intricate environments. Moreover, this paper emphasizes the practical implementations of EOMs in the field of RL, specifically in areas such as robotic control, autonomous systems, inventory problems, and multi-agent scenarios. The article highlights the utilization of EOMs in facilitating RL agents to effectively adapt, evolve, and uncover proficient strategies for complex tasks that may pose challenges for conventional RL approaches.

Keywords: machine learning, reinforcement learning, loss function, optimization techniques, evolutionary optimization methods

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Authors: Sukhwinder Singh, Julian Park, Dinesh Kumar Benbi

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Although soil health, which is recognized as one of the key determinants of sustainable agricultural development, can be measured by a range of physical, chemical and biological parameters, the widely used parameters include pH, electrical conductivity (EC), organic carbon (OC), plant available phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). Soil health is largely affected by the occurrence of natural events or human activities and can be improved by various land management practices. A database of 120 soil samples collected from farmers’ fields spread across three major agro-climatic zones of Punjab suggested that the average pH, EC, OC, P and K was 8.2 (SD = 0.75, Min = 5.5, Max = 9.1), 0.27 dS/m (SD = 0.17, Min = 0.072 dS/m, Max = 1.22 dS/m), 0.49% (SD = 0.20, Min = 0.06%, Max = 1.2%), 19 mg/kg soil (SD = 22.07, Min = 3 mg/kg soil, Max = 207 mg/kg soil) and 171 mg/kg soil (SD = 47.57, Min = 54 mg/kg soil, Max = 288 mg/kg soil), respectively. Region-wise, pH, EC and K were the highest in south-western district of Ferozpur whereas farmers in north-eastern district of Gurdaspur had the best soils in terms of OC and P. The soils in the central district of Barnala had lower OC, P and K than the respective overall averages while its soils were normal but skewed towards alkalinity. Besides agro-climatic conditions, the size of landholding and farmer education showed a significant association with Soil Fertility Index (SFI), a composite index calculated using the aforementioned parameters’ normalized weightage. All the four stakeholder groups cited the current cropping patterns, burning of rice crop residue, and imbalanced use of chemical fertilizers for change in soil health. However, the current state of soil health in Punjab is unclear, which needs further investigation based on temporal data collected from the same field to see the short and long-term impacts of various crop combinations and varied cropping intensity levels on soil health.

Keywords: soil health, punjab agriculture, sustainability, soil fertility index

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Authors: Dinesh Kumar Sharma, Sanjay Sharma

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Textile manufacturing industry uses a substantial amount of chemicals not only in the production processes but also in manufacturing the raw materials. Dyes are the most significant raw material which provides colour to the fabric and yarn. Dyes are produced by using a large amount of chemicals both organic and inorganic in nature. Dyes are further classified as Reactive or Vat Dyes which are mostly used in cotton textiles. In the process of application of dyes to the cotton fiber, yarn or fabric, several auxiliary chemicals are also used in the solution called dyebath to improve the absorption of dyes. There is a very little absorption of dyes and auxiliary chemicals and a residual amount of all these substances is released as the spent dye bath effluent. Because of the wide variety of chemicals used in cotton textile dyes, there is always a risk of harmful effects which may not be apparent immediately but may have an irreversible impact in the long term. Colour imparted by the dyes to the water also has an adverse effect on its public acceptability and the potability. This study has been conducted with an objective to assess the feasibility of reuse of the spent dye bath. Studies have been conducted in two independent industries manufacturing dyed cotton yarn and dyed cotton fabric respectively. These have been referred as Unit-I and Unit-II. The studies included assessment of reduction in pollution levels and the economic benefits of such reuse. The study conclusively establishes that the reuse of spent dyebath results in prevention of pollution, reduction in pollution loads and cost of effluent treatment & production. This pollution prevention technique presents a good preposition for pollution prevention in cotton textile industry.

Keywords: dyes, dyebath, reuse, toxic, pollution, costs

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Authors: Imran Altaf Wasil, Dinesh Ganvir

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Due to a scarcity of virgin aggregates, the use of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) as a substitute for natural aggregates has gained popularity. Despite the fact that RAP is recycled in asphalt pavement, there is still excess RAP, and its use in concrete pavements has expanded in recent years. According to a survey, 98 percent of India's pavements are flexible. As a result, the maintenance and reconstruction of such pavements generate RAP, which can be reused in concrete pavements as well as surface course, base course, and sub-base of flexible pavements. Various studies on the properties of reclaimed asphalt pavement and its optimal requirements for usage in concrete has been conducted throughout the years. In this study a total of four different mixes were prepared by partially replacing natural aggregates by RAP in different proportions. It was found that with the increase in the replacement level of Natural aggregates by RAP the mechanical and durability properties got reduced. In order to increase the mechanical strength of mixes 40% Glass Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBS) was used and it was found that with replacement of cement by 40% of GGBS, there was an enhancement in the mechanical and durability properties of RAP inclusive PQC mixes. The reason behind the improvement in the properties is due to the processing technique used in order to remove the contaminant layers present in the coarse RAP aggregates. The replacement level of Natural aggregate with RAP was done in proportions of 20%, 40% and 60% along with the partial replacement of cement by 40% GGBS. It was found that all the mixes surpassed the design target value of 40 MPa in compression and 4.5 MPa in flexure making it much more economical and feasible.

Keywords: reclaimed asphalt pavement, pavement quality concrete, glass granulated blast furnace slag, mechanical and durability properties

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Authors: K. N. Dinesh Babu, P. K. Gargava

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Energization of a transformer results in sudden flow of current which is an effect of core magnetization. This current will be dominated by the presence of second harmonic, which in turn is used to segregate fault and inrush current, thus guaranteeing proper operation of the relay. This additional security in the relay sometimes obstructs or delays differential protection in a specific scenario, when the 2^nd harmonic content was present during a genuine fault. This kind of scenario can result in isolation of the transformer by Buchholz and pressure release valve (PRV) protection, which is acted when fault creates more damage in transformer. Such delays involve a huge impact on the insulation failure, and chances of repairing or rectifying fault of problem at site become very dismal. Sometimes this delay can cause fire in the transformer, and this situation becomes havoc for a sub-station. Such occurrences have been observed in field also when differential relay operation was delayed by 10-15 ms by second harmonic blocking in some specific conditions. These incidences have led to the need for an alternative solution to eradicate such unwarranted delay in operation in future. Modern numerical relay, called as intelligent electronic device (IED), is embedded with advanced protection features which permit higher flexibility and better provisions for tuning of protection logic and settings. Such flexibility in transformer protection IEDs, enables incorporation of alternative methods such as dynamic switching of second harmonic feature for blocking the differential protection with additional security. The analysis and precautionary measures carried out in this case, have been simulated and discussed in this paper to ensure that similar solutions can be adopted to inhibit analogous issues in future.

Keywords: differential protection, intelligent electronic device (IED), 2nd harmonic inhibit, inrush inhibit

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Authors: A. G. Barua, Uttam Rajkhowa, Pranjal Moni Nath, Nur Abdul Kadir

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Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is one of the most closely-related intracellular bacterial pathogens, grouped as the M. tuberculosis complex (MTC). MTB, the primary agent of human tuberculosis (TB), can develop clinical TB in animals as 75 percent of canine mycobacterial infection is caused by close contact with an infected human being. In the present study, molecular detection of TB in dogs in three North-eastern states of India, Assam Mizoram, and Nagaland was carried out. So far, there has been a lack of systematic study in these regions, hampered by slow diagnostic methods and poor infrastructure. In an attempt to rectify this situation, molecular epidemiology was carried out for nine months to detect canine TB in a sample of 340 dogs. Isolation of DNA was done with swabs (throat/nasal), nodules of lungs and fluids from 100 suspected dogs and the molecular study were carried out with the help of conventional and real-time PCR. Post-mortem study was also carried out. Our results showed that the prevalence of clinical TB in dogs from a high-risk setting was 1 percent. However, the prevalence of immunological sensitization to M. tuberculosis antigen in dogs living in contact with sputum smeared positive TB cases was almost 50 percent. The latter setting had the maximum impact in terms of TB transmission. During the study period, a survey with a standard questionnaire was carried out in the TB hospitals to study reverse zoonosis. It was observed that an infected human being was one of the major risk factors for dogs to contract the infection. This observation was drawn by examining the probable airborne transmission from humans to their pets or strays. The present study helped to discover the nuances of TB transmission more clearly and systematically as compared to other sporadic tests to detect MTB in canine.

Keywords: Assam and Nagaland, canine TB, India, molecular detection, tuberculosis

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Authors: Dinesh K. S., D. R. C. V. Jayadevan

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Autism is the most prevalent of a subset of the disorders organized under the umbrella of pervasive developmental disorders. After the publication of Andrew Wakefield's paper in lancet, many critiques deny this connection even without looking in to the matter. The British Medical Journal even put an editorial regarding this issue. BMJ 2010; 340:c1807. But ayurveda has ample of evidences to believe this connectivity. Dysbiosis, yeast growth of the gut, nutritional deficiencies, enzyme deficiencies, essential fatty acid deficiencies, Gastro esophageal reflux disease, indigestion, inflammatory bowel, chronic constipation & its cascade are few of them to note. The purpose of this paper is to present the observed changes in the behavioural symptoms of autistic babies after a gut management protocol which is a usual programme of our autism treatment plan especially after dysbiotic changes after antibiotic administration. Is there any correlation between changes (if significant) in gut symptoms and behavioral problems of autistic babies especially after a dysbiosis induced by antibiotics. Retrospective analysis of the case sheets of autistic patients admitted in Vaidyaratnam P.S.Varier Ayurveda College hospital, kottakkal,kerala, india from September 2010 are taken for the data processing. Autistic patients are used to come to this hospital as a part of their usual course of treatment. We investigated 40 cases diagnosed as autistic by clinical psychologists from different institutions who had dysbiosis induced by antibiotics. Significant change in gut symptoms before and after treatment p<0.05 in most of its components Significant change in behavioral symptoms before and after treatments p<0.05 in most of the components Correlation between gut symptoms change and behavioral symptoms changes after treatment is + 0.86. Conclusion : Selected Polyherbal Ayurveda treatment has significant role to play to make changes abnormal behaviors in autistic babies and has a positive correlation with changes in gut symptoms induced by dysbiosis of antibiotic intake.

Keywords: ayurveda, autism, dysbiosis, antibiotic

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Naoki Suzuki, Kalla Alok, Nath Paras

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Bluefin (Thunnus orientalis) tuna is one of the most economically valuable tuna species in the world. In recent years the stock has been observed to decline. It is suspected that the stock-recruitment relationship and population structure is influenced by environmental and climatic variables. This study was aimed at investigating the influence of environmental and climatic conditions on the trajectory of the different life stages of the North Pacific bluefin tuna. Exploratory analysis was performed for the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the time series of the bluefin tuna cohorts (age-0, 1, 2,…,9, 10+). General Additive Modeling (GAM) was used to reconstruct the recruitment (R) trajectory. The spatial movement of the SST was also monitored from 1953 to 2012 in the distribution area of the bluefin tuna. Exploratory analysis showed significance influence of the North Pacific Sea Surface temperature (SST) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the time series of the age-0 group. Other age group (1, 2,…,9, 10+) time series did not exhibit any significant correlations. PDO showed most significant relationship in the months of October to December. Although the stock-recruitment relationship is of biological significance, the recruits (age-0) showed poor correlation with the Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB). Indeed the most significant model incorporated the SSB, SST and PDO. The results show that the stock-recruitment relationship of the North Pacific bluefin tuna is multi-dimensional and cannot be adequately explained by the SSB alone. SST and PDO forcing of the population structure is of significant importance and needs to be accounted for when making harvesting plans for bluefin tuna in the North Pacific.

Keywords: pacific bluefin tuna, Thunnus orientalis, cohorts, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, sea surface temperature, pacific decadal oscillation, general additive model

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Authors: Dinesh N. Kurup, Celine Perriera

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The economic development of any country is based on the policies adopted by the government from time to time. If these policies are framed by the opinion of the people of the country, there is need for having strong knowledge base, right from the school level. There should be emphasis to provide in education, an ability to take informed decisions regarding socio-scientific issues. It would be better to adopt this practice in high school classrooms to build capacity among future citizens. This study is an attempt to provide a different approach of teaching and learning in classrooms at the high school level in Indian schools for providing opportunity for informed decision making regarding nuclear power use. A unit of work based on the 5E instructional model about the use of nuclear energy is used to build knowledge base and find out the effectiveness in terms of its influence for taking decisions as a future citizen. A sample of 120 students from three high schools using different curricula and teaching and learning methods were chosen for this study. This research used a design based research method. A pre and post questionnaire based on the theory of reasoned action, structured observations, focus group interviews and opportunity for decision making were used during the intervention. The data analysed qualitatively and quantitatively, and the qualitative data were coded into categories based on responses. The results of the study show that students were able to make informed decisions and could give reasons for their decisions. They were enthusiastic in formulating policy making based on their knowledge base and have strong held views and reasoning for their choice.

Keywords: informed decision making, socio-scientific issues, nuclear energy use, policy making

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Authors: S. Vignesh, N. Vishnu, S. Vigneshwaran, M. Vishnu Anand, Dinesh Kumar Babu, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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The study of the primary flow velocity and the self impinging secondary jet flow mixing is important from both the fundamental research and the application point of view. Real industrial configurations are more complex than simple shear layers present in idealized numerical thrust-vectoring models due to the presence of combustion, swirl and confinement. Predicting the flow features of self impinging secondary jets in a supersonic primary flow is complex owing to the fact that there are a large number of parameters involved. Earlier studies have been highlighted several key features of self impinging jets, but an extensive characterization in terms of jet interaction between supersonic flow and self impinging secondary sonic jets is still an active research topic. In this paper numerical studies have been carried out using a validated two-dimensional k-omega standard turbulence model for the design optimization of a thrust vector control system using shock induced self impinging secondary flow sonic jets using non-reacting flows. Efforts have been taken for examining the flow features of TVC system with various secondary jets at different divergent locations and jet impinging angles with the same inlet jet pressure and mass flow ratio. The results from the parametric studies reveal that in addition to the primary to the secondary mass flow ratio the characteristics of the self impinging secondary jets having bearing on an efficient thrust vectoring. We concluded that the self impinging secondary jet nozzles are better than single jet nozzle with the same secondary mass flow rate owing to the fact fixing of the self impinging secondary jet nozzles with proper jet angle could facilitate better thrust vectoring for any supersonic aerospace vehicle.

Keywords: fluidic thrust vectoring, rocket steering, supersonic to sonic jet interaction, TVC in aerospace vehicles

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Naoki Suzuki, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Swastika Roshni, Paras Nath, Alok Kalla

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Albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) is one of the commercially important species of tuna in the North Pacific region. Despite the long history of albacore fisheries in the Pacific, its ecological characteristics are not sufficiently understood. The effects of changing climate on numerous commercially and ecologically important fish species including albacore tuna have been documented over the past decades. The objective of this study was to explore and elucidate the relationship of environmental variables with the stock parameters of albacore tuna. The relationship of the North Pacific albacore tuna recruitment (R), spawning stock biomass (SSB) and recruits per spawning biomass (RPS) from 1970 to 2012 with the environmental factors of sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific warm pool index (PWI) was construed. SST and PDO were used as independent variables with SSB to construct stock reproduction models for R and RPS as they showed most significant relationship with the dependent variables. ENSO and PWI were excluded due to collinearity effects with SST and PDO. Model selections were based on R2 values, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and significant parameter estimates at p<0.05. Models with single independent variables of SST, PDO, ENSO and PWI were also constructed to illuminate their individual effect on albacore R and RPS. From the results it can be said that SST and PDO resulted in the most significant models for reproducing North Pacific albacore tuna R and RPS time series. SST has the highest impact on albacore R and RPS when comparing models with single environmental variables. It is important for fishery managers and decision makers to incorporate the findings into their albacore tuna management plans for the North Pacific Oceanic region.

Keywords: Albacore tuna, El Niño southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Alokananda Nath

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Land is an important issue anywhere in the world as it is one of the fundamental elements in human settlements. Since the urban areas are considered to be the drivers of economy for any country across the world and the phenomenon of ‘urbanization’ happening everywhere, there is always a greater pressure on urban land and its management. Many states in India have realized the importance of land as a valuable resource and have implemented certain framework for managing and developing land. But in West Bengal no such statutory framework has been formulated till now and a very out dated model of land acquisition for public purpose is practiced. Due to the lop-sided character of urban growth in the entire eastern region of India, the city of Kolkata continues to bear the burden of excessive growth of population and consequent urbanization of the adjoining areas at a rapid pace. This research tries to look into these conflicts with respect to the present pattern of development in the context of Kolkata and suggest a system for land management in order to implement the planning processes. For this purpose, five case study areas were taken up within the Kolkata Metropolitan Area and subsequent analysis of their present land management and development techniques was done. The findings reveal that there is a lack of political will as well as administrative inefficiency on part of both the development authority and the local bodies. Mostly the local bodies lack the financial resources and technical expertise to work out any kind of land management framework or work out any kind of model in order to manage the development that is happening. All these place undue strain on city infrastructure systems and reduce the potential of cities to contribute as engines of economic growth. The focus of reforms, therefore, ought to be on streamlining the urban planning process, judicious and optimal land use, efficient plan implementation mechanisms, improvement of titling and registration processes.

Keywords: urbanization, land management framework, land development, policy reforms, land-use planning processes

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Authors: K. N. Dinesh Babu

Abstract:

In this paper, the protection of a complicated bus arrangement with a dual bus coupler and bus sectionalizer using low impedance differential protection applicable for very high voltages like 220kV and 400kV is discussed. In many power generation stations, several operational procedures are implemented to utilize the transfer bus as the main bus and to facilitate the maintenance of circuit breakers and current transformers (in each section) without shutting down the bay(s). Owing to this fact, the complications in operational philosophy have thrown challenges for the bus bar protection implementation. Many bus topologies allow any one of the main buses available in the station to be used as an auxiliary bus. In such a system, pre-defined precautions and procedures are made as guidelines, which are followed before assigning any bus as an auxiliary bus. The procedure involves shifting of links, changing rotary switches, insertion of test block, and so on, thereby causing unreliable operation. This kind of unreliable operation or inadvertent procedural lapse may result in the isolation of the bus bar from the grid due to the unpredictable operation of the bus bar protection relay, which is a commonly occurring phenomenon due to manual mistakes. With the sophisticated configuration and implementation of logic in modern intelligent electronic devices, the operator is free to select the transfer arrangement without sacrificing the protection required by a bus differential system for a reliable operation, and labor-intensive processes are completely eliminated. This paper deals with the procedure to test the security logic for such special scenarios using Megger make SMRT, bus bar protection relay to assure system stability and get rid of all the specific operational precautions/procedure.

Keywords: bus bar protection, by-pass isolator, blind spot, breaker failure, intelligent electronic device, end fault, bus unification, directional principle, zones of protection, breaker re-trip, under voltage security, smart megger relay tester

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Authors: Tanka Nath Dahal

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Community-based forestry is seen as a promising instrument for sustainable forest management (SFM) through the purposeful involvement of local communities. Globally, forest area managed by local communities is on the rise. However, transferring management responsibilities to forest users alone cannot guarantee the sustainability of forest management. A monitoring tool, that allows the local communities to track the progress of forest management towards the goal of sustainability, is essential. A case study, including six forest user groups (FUGs), two from each three community-based forestry models—community forestry (CF), buffer zone community forestry (BZCF), and collaborative forest management (CFM) representing three different physiographic regions, was conducted in Nepal. The study explores which community-based forest management model (CF, BZCF or CFM) is doing well in terms of sustainable forest management. The study assesses the overall performance of the three models towards SFM using locally developed criteria (four), indicators (26) and verifiers (60). This paper attempts to quantify the sustainability of the models using sustainability index for individual criteria (SIIC), and overall sustainability index (OSI). In addition, rating to the criteria and scoring of the verifiers by the FUGs were done. Among the four criteria, the FUGs ascribed the highest weightage to institutional framework and governance criterion; followed by economic and social benefits, forest management practices, and extent of forest resources. Similarly, the SIIC was found to be the highest for the institutional framework and governance criterion. The average values of OSI for CFM, CF, and BZCF were 0.48, 0.51 and 0.60 respectively; suggesting that buffer zone community forestry is the more sustainable model among the three. The study also suggested that the SIIC and OSI help local communities to quantify the overall progress of their forestry practices towards sustainability. The indices provided a clear picture of forest management practices to indicate the direction where they are heading in terms of sustainability; and informed the users on issues to pay attention to enhancing the sustainability of their forests.

Keywords: community forestry, collaborative management, overall sustainability, sustainability index for individual criteria

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Authors: Sagar R. Patil, Dinesh R. Gawade, Sudhir N. Divekar

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One of the medical devices we found when we visit a hospital care unit such device is ‘patient monitoring system’. This device (patient monitoring system) informs doctors and nurses about the patient’s physiological signals. However, this device (patient monitoring system) does not have a remote monitoring capability, which is necessitates constant onsite attendance by support personnel (doctors and nurses). Thus, we have developed a Remote Wireless Patient Monitoring System using some biomedical sensors and Android OS, which is a portable patient monitoring. This device(Remote Wireless Patient Monitoring System) monitors the biomedical signals of patients in real time and sends them to remote stations (doctors and nurse’s android Smartphone and web) for display and with alerts when necessary. Wireless Patient Monitoring System different from conventional device (Patient Monitoring system) in two aspects: First its wireless communication capability allows physiological signals to be monitored remotely and second, it is portable so patients can move while there biomedical signals are being monitor. Wireless Patient Monitoring is also notable because of its implementation. We are integrated four sensors such as pulse oximeter (SPO2), thermometer, respiration, blood pressure (BP), heart rate and electrocardiogram (ECG) in this device (Wireless Patient Monitoring System) and Monitoring and communication applications are implemented on the Android OS using threads, which facilitate the stable and timely manipulation of signals and the appropriate sharing of resources. The biomedical data will be display on android smart phone as well as on web Using web server and database system we can share these physiological signals with remote place medical personnel’s or with any where in the world medical personnel’s. We verified that the multitasking implementation used in the system was suitable for patient monitoring and for other Healthcare applications.

Keywords: patient monitoring, wireless patient monitoring, bio-medical signals, physiological signals, embedded system, Android OS, healthcare, pulse oximeter (SPO2), thermometer, respiration, blood pressure (BP), heart rate, electrocardiogram (ECG)

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Authors: Swati Kapoor, Rajeev Upreti, Monica Mahajan, Abhaya Indrayan, Dinesh Srivastava

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Enteric Fever is caused by gram negative bacilli Salmonella typhi and paratyphi. It is associated with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. Timely initiation of treatment is a crucial step for prevention of any complications. Cultures of body fluids are diagnostic, but not always conclusive or practically feasible in most centers. Moreover, the results of cultures delay the treatment initiation. Serological tests lack diagnostic value. The blood counts can offer a promising option in diagnosis. A retrospective study to find out the relevance of leucopenia and eosinopenia was conducted on 203 culture proven enteric fever patients and 159 culture proven non-enteric fever patients in a tertiary care hospital in New Delhi. The patient details were retrieved from the electronic medical records section of the hospital. Absolute eosinopenia was considered as absolute eosinophil count (AEC) of less than 40/mm³ (normal level: 40-400/mm³) using LH-750 Beckman Coulter Automated machine. Leucopoenia was defined as total leucocyte count (TLC) of less than 4 X 10⁹/l. Blood cultures were done using BacT/ALERT FA plus automated blood culture system before first antibiotic dose was given. Case and control groups were compared using Pearson Chi square test. It was observed that absolute eosinophil count (AEC) of 0-19/mm³ was a significant finding (p < 0.001) in enteric fever patients, whereas leucopenia was not a significant finding (p=0.096). Using Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, it was observed that patients with both AEC < 14/mm³ and TCL < 8 x 10⁹/l had 95.6% chance of being diagnosed as enteric fever and only 4.4% chance of being diagnosed as non-enteric fever. This result was highly significant with p < 0.001. This is a very useful association of AEC and TLC found in enteric fever patients of this study which can be used for the early initiation of treatment in clinically suspected enteric fever patients.

Keywords: absolute eosinopenia, absolute eosinophil count, enteric fever, leucopenia, total leucocyte count

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Authors: Bindu I. Somarajan, Viney Gupta, Gagandeep Kaur Walia, Jasbir Kaur, Sunil Kumar, Shikha Gupta, Abadh K. Chaurasia, Dinesh Gupa, Abhinav Kaushik, Aditi Mehta, Vipin Gupta, Arundhati Sharma

Abstract:

Background: Juvenile onset primary open angle glaucoma (JOAG), affects individuals under the age of 40 years. Studies on a few families of JOAG, that led to the discovery of the Myocilin gene, reported the disease to have an autosomal dominant pattern of inheritance. However, sporadic forms of JOAG been seen to be more common in some populations. Most pathological homozygous mutations in the CYP1B1 gene associated with JOAG have been seen among sporadic cases. Given the higher prevalence of sporadic JOAG cases in our population, we aimed to look for common mutations E229K and R368H, the two most common variants in the CYP1B1 gene associated with glaucoma. Objective: To determine the frequency and evaluate genotype phenotype correlation of CYP1B1 E229K and R368H mutations in a cohort of 120 sporadic Juvenile open angle glaucoma patients.Methods: Unrelated JOAG patients whose first degree relatives had been examined and found to be unaffected were included in the study. The patients and their parents were screened for E229K and R368H mutations. The phenotypic characteristics were compared between probands with and with out these mutations by SPSS v16. Results: Out of 120 JOAG patients included in the study, the E229K mutation was seen in 9 probands (7.5%) and R368H in 7 (5.8%). The average age of onset of the disease (p=0.3) and the highest untreated IOP (p=0.4) among those carrying mutations was not significantly different from those who did not have these mutations. The proportion of probands with angle dysgenesis among those with E229K and R368H mutations was 70% (11 out of 16) in comparison to 65% (67 out of 104) of those who did not harbour these mutations (p=0.56). Similarly the probands with moderate to high myopia among those with E229K and R368H mutations was 20% (3 out of 16) in comparison to 18% (18 out of 104) of those who did not harbour these mutations(p=0.59). Conclusion: The frequency of E229K and R368H mutations of the CYP1B1 gene is low even among sporadic JOAG patients. Moreover there is no clinical correlation between the presence of these mutations and disease severity

Keywords: CYP1B1, gene, IOP, JOAG, mutation

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Authors: Sanchita B. Sarma, M. P. Nath

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Adequate analgesia following caesarean section decreases morbidity, hastens ambulation, improves patient outcome and facilitates care of the newborn. Intrathecal magnesium, an NMDA antagonist, has been shown to prolong analgesia without significant side effects in healthy parturients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the onset and duration of sensory and motor block, hemodynamic effect, postoperative analgesia, and adverse effects of magnesium or fentanyl given intrathecally with hyperbaric 0.5% bupivacaine in patients with mild preeclampsia undergoing caesarean section. Sixty women with mild preeclampsia undergoing elective caesarean section were included in a prospective, double blind, controlled trial. Patients were randomly assigned to receive spinal anesthesia with 2 mL 0.5% hyperbaric bupivacaine with 12.5 µg fentanyl (group F) or 0.1 ml of 50% magnesium sulphate (50 mg) (group M) with 0.15ml preservative free distilled water. Onset, duration and recovery of sensory and motor block, time to maximum sensory block, duration of spinal anaesthesia and postoperative analgesic requirements were studied. Statistical comparison was carried out using the Chi-square or Fisher’s exact tests and Independent Student’s t-test where appropriate. The onset of both sensory and motor block was slower in the magnesium group. The duration of spinal anaesthesia (246 vs. 284) and motor block (186.3 vs. 210) were significantly longer in the magnesium group. Total analgesic top up requirement was less in group M. Hemodynamic parameters were similar in both the groups. Intrathecal magnesium caused minimal side effects. Since Fentanyl and other opioid congeners are not available throughout the country easily, magnesium with its easy availability and less side effect profile can be a cost effective alternative to fentanyl in managing pregnancy induced hypertension (PIH) patients given along with Bupivacaine intrathecally in caesarean section.

Keywords: analgesia, magnesium, pre eclampsia, spinal anaesthesia

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Authors: Jung-Soo Lee, Ujjal Kumar Nath, IllSup Nou, Dulal Chandra

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Leaf lettuce is one of the most important leafy vegetables that is used as raw for salad and part of everyday dishes in many parts of the world including Asian countries. Since it is used as fresh, its quality maintenance is crucial which depends on several pre- and postharvest factors. In order to investigate the effects of pre-fix factors on the postharvest quality, the interaction of pre-fix factors such as growing conditions and fixed factor like cultivars were evaluated. Four Korean leaf lettuce cultivars ‘Cheongchima’, ‘Cheongchuckmyeon’, ‘Geockchima’ and ‘Geockchuckmyeon’ were grown under natural condition (as control) and altered growing condition (green house) with excess soil water and 50% shading to monitor their postharvest qualities. Several growth parameters like plant height, number of leaves, leaf thickness, fresh biomass yield as well as postharvest qualities like fresh weight loss, respiration rate, changes in color and shelf-life were measured in lettuce during storage up to 36 days at 5°C. Plant height and the number of leaves were affected by both pre-fix growing conditions as well as the cultivars. However, fresh biomass yield was affected by only growing condition, whereas leaf thickness was affected by cultivars. Additionally, the degrees of fresh weight loss and respiration rate of leaf lettuce at postharvest stages were influenced by pre-fix growing conditions and cultivars. However, changes in color of leaves during storage were less remarkable in samples harvested from of ‘Cheongchima’ and ‘Cheongchuckmyeon’ cultivars grown in excess watering with 50% shade than that grown in control condition. Consequently, these two cultivars also showed longer shelf-life when they were grown in excess watering with 50% shade than other cultivars or samples were grown in control condition. Based on the measured parameters, it can be concluded that postharvest quality of leaf lettuce might be accelerated by growing lettuce under excess soil water with 50% shading.

Keywords: cultivar, growing condition, leaf lettuce, postharvest quality, shelf-life

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Authors: Reeta Devi, Hitender Kumar Tyagi, Dinesh Kumar

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In present scenario, cardiovascular problems are growing challenge for researchers and physiologists. As heart disease have no geographic, gender or socioeconomic specific reasons; detecting cardiac irregularities at early stage followed by quick and correct treatment is very important. Electrocardiogram is the finest tool for continuous monitoring of heart activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) is used to measure naturally occurring oscillations between consecutive cardiac cycles. Analysis of this variability is carried out using time domain, frequency domain and non-linear parameters. This paper presents HRV analysis of the online dataset for normal sinus rhythm (taken as healthy subject) and sudden cardiac death (SCD subject) using all three methods computing values for parameters like standard deviation of node to node intervals (SDNN), square root of mean of the sequences of difference between adjacent RR intervals (RMSSD), mean of R to R intervals (mean RR) in time domain, very low-frequency (VLF), low-frequency (LF), high frequency (HF) and ratio of low to high frequency (LF/HF ratio) in frequency domain and Poincare plot for non linear analysis. To differentiate HRV of healthy subject from subject died with SCD, k –nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier has been used because of its high accuracy. Results show highly reduced values for all stated parameters for SCD subjects as compared to healthy ones. As the dataset used for SCD patients is recording of their ECG signal one hour prior to their death, it is therefore, verified with an accuracy of 95% that proposed algorithm can identify mortality risk of a patient one hour before its death. The identification of a patient’s mortality risk at such an early stage may prevent him/her meeting sudden death if in-time and right treatment is given by the doctor.

Keywords: early stage prediction, heart rate variability, linear and non-linear analysis, sudden cardiac death

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Authors: Kanika Kalra, Harmeet Kaur, Dinesh Goyal

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Total phenolics were extracted from waste orange peels by solvent extraction and alkali hydrolysis method. The most efficient solvents for extracting phenolic compounds from waste biomass were methanol (60%) > dimethyl sulfoxide > ethanol (60%) > distilled water. The extraction yields were significantly impacted by solvents (ethanol, methanol, and dimethyl sulfoxide) due to varying polarity and concentrations. Extraction of phenolics using 60% methanol yielded the highest phenolics (in terms of gallic acid equivalent (GAE) per gram of biomass) in orange peels. Alkali hydrolyzed extract from orange peels contained 7.58±0.33 mg GAE g⁻¹. By using the solvent extraction technique, it was observed that 60% methanol is comparatively the best-suited solvent for extracting polyphenolic compounds and gave the maximum yield of 4.68 ± 0.47 mg GAE g⁻¹ in orange peel extracts. DPPH radical scavenging activity and reducing the power of orange peel extract were checked, where 60% methanolic extract showed the highest antioxidant activity, 85.50±0.009% for DPPH, and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) extract gave the highest yield of 1.75±0.01% for reducing power ability of the orange peels extract. Characterization of the polyphenolic compounds was done by using Fourier transformation infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Solvent and alkali hydrolysed extracts were evaluated for antibacterial activity using the agar well diffusion method against Gram-positive Bacillus subtilis MTCC441 and Gram-negative Escherichia coli MTCC729. Methanolic extract at 300µl concentration showed an inhibition zone of around 16.33±0.47 mm against Bacillus subtilis, whereas, for Escherichia coli, it was comparatively less. Broth-based turbidimetric assay revealed the antibacterial effect of different volumes of orange peel extracts against both organisms.

Keywords: orange peels, total phenolic content, antioxidant, antibacterial

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Authors: C. Mayuren, C. K. Paul Wang, K. Purushotham, C. Dinesh Kumar

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Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is one of the most common non-communicable diseases globally. Although significant advances have led to better understanding of the condition and the development of effective therapies and preventive strategies, the pathway to cure remains elusive and DM prevails as a serious medical challenge in the 21st century. Oxidative stress has been suggested to contribute to the progression and pathophysiological conditions of diabetes. Madecassoside (MA) a major pentacyclic triterpenoid, has been demonstrated to possess various biological activities. However, no attempt has been made to study the antioxidant activity in diabetic rats. Therefore, the present study is aimed to evaluate the antioxidant effect of MA on streptozotocin-nicotinamide induced type-2 diabetes in Sprague-Dawley rats. The study protocol was approved by the institutional ethical committee prior to the conduct of research. Adult male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 250-300 g were used in the study. The animals were rendered diabetic with a single intraperitoneal dose of streptozotocin (65 mg/kg) and nicotinamide (110 mg/kg). The diabetic animals after a stabilisation period of 14 days received various treatments (Madecassoside 50 mg/kg; Glimepiride 2.5 mg/kg) suspended in 0.5% carboxymethyl cellulose orally, for a period of 28 days. The animals fasted overnight after the last treatment were sacrificed and the pancreas, liver and kidneys were isolated. The weighted quantity of the samples of various treatments were homogenised in ice-cold condition and were subjected to lipid peroxidation, catalase and superoxide dismutase assay. The data’s obtained were subjected to statistical analysis. Diabetic rats showed significant increase in lipid peroxidation and decrease in enzymatic antioxidant levels. All the treated groups had significantly higher SOD, CAT and reduced LPO activity in the pancreas, liver and kidney. Results suggest madecassoside to have potential antioxidant effect against the diabetic model. However further investigations are necessary to study the mechanism at the cellular level.

Keywords: antioxidant, diabetes, madecassoside, nicotinamide, streptozotocin

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Authors: Faizan Hassan, Seema Kumari, V. P. Singh, Pradeep Das, Diwakar Singh Dinesh

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Phlebotomus argentipes is an established vector for Visceral Leishmaniasis in Indian subcontinent. Laboratory colonization of Sand flies is imperative in research on vectors, which requires a proper diet for their larvae and adult growth that ultimately affects their survival and fecundity. In most of the laboratories, adult Sand flies are reared on rabbit blood feeding/artificial blood feeding and their larvae on fine grinded rabbit faeces as a sole source of food. Rabbit faeces are unhygienic, difficult to handle, high mites infestation as well as owing to bad odour which creates menacing to human users ranging from respiratory problems to eye infection and most importantly it does not full fill all the nutrients required for proper growth and development. It is generally observed that the adult emergence is very low in comparison to egg hatched, which may be due to insufficient food nutrients provided to growing larvae. To check the role of food nutrients on larvae survival and adult emergence, a high protein rich artificial diet for sand fly larvae were used in this study. The composition of artificial diet to be tested includes fine grinded (9 gm each) Rice, Pea nuts & Soyabean balls. These three food ingredients are rich source of all essential amino acids along with carbohydrate and minerals which is essential for proper metabolism and growth. In this study artificial food was found significantly more effective for larval development and adult emergence than rabbit faeces alone (P value >0.05). The weight of individual larvae was also found higher in test pots than the control. This study suggest that protein plays an important role in insect larvae development and adding carbohydrate will also enhances the fecundity of insects larvae.

Keywords: artificial food, nutrients, Phlebotomus argentipes, sand fly

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Authors: Lydia Booney Jyrwa, Rabindra Nath Bhuyan

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Chocolate Mahseer (Neolissochilus hexagonolepis) is one of the Mahseer species inhabiting the North-eastern region of India and is a native species to the state of Meghalaya since it can adapt and grow well under the agro climatic conditions of the region. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The fish is considered as one of the endangered species of the Mahseer group, which is having tremendous scope for culture, sports and tourism. But non-availability of quality seed is a hindrance for the culture of this fish. Thus induced breeding of the fish by hormonal administration with pituitary gland and synthetic hormones is the only reliable method to procure the pure seed of the fish. Chocolate Mahseer was successfully bred at the Hatchery Complex, St. Anthony’s College, Shillong, Meghalaya by using pituitary extract and synthetic hormone viz. ovaprim, ovatide and gonopro-FH. The dose standardized is @ 4mg/kg body weight to both male and female as 1st dose and @ 7.9 mg/kg body weight only to female as 2nd dose for pituitary extract and single dose @ 0.8 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of both ovaprim and ovatide, while a single dose @ 0.9 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of gonopro-FH. The doses are standardized after a series of trial and error experiment performed. The fecundity of the fish was 3500 eggs/ kg body weight. The final hatching percentage achieved was 60%. The survival rate of hatchling was 50% up to fry stage. The use of synthetic hormone and positive response of the fish to the hormone will go in long way for production of quality seed of the fish which in turn help in culture of the species as the fish can be a very good candidate species for the culture in the state. This study will also help in the ranching of the fish in the natural habitat leading to conservation of the species. However, the study should be continued further for the large scale production of seeds.

Keywords: chocolate mahseer, induced breeding, pituitary extract, synthetic hormone

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Dinesh Pathak, Sudhir Saralch

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Copper oxide is a semiconductor that has been studied for several reasons such as the natural abundance of starting material copper (Cu); the easiness of production by Cu oxidation; their non-toxic nature and the reasonably good electrical and optical properties. Copper oxide is well-known as cuprite oxide. The cuprite is p-type semiconductors having band gap energy of 1.21 to 1.51 eV. As a p-type semiconductor, conduction arises from the presence of holes in the valence band (VB) due to doping/annealing. CuO is attractive as a selective solar absorber since it has high solar absorbency and a low thermal emittance. CuO is very promising candidate for solar cell applications as it is a suitable material for photovoltaic energy conversion. It has been demonstrated that the dip technique can be used to deposit CuO films in a simple manner using metallic chlorides (CuCl₂.2H₂O) as a starting material. Copper oxide films are prepared using a methanolic solution of cupric chloride (CuCl₂.2H₂O) at three baking temperatures. We made three samples, after heating which converts to black colour. XRD data confirm that the films are of CuO phases at a particular temperature. The optical band gap of the CuO films calculated from optical absorption measurements is 1.90 eV which is quite comparable to the reported value. Dip technique is a very simple and low-cost method, which requires no sophisticated specialized setup. Coating of the substrate with a large surface area can be easily obtained by this technique compared to that in physical evaporation techniques and spray pyrolysis. Another advantage of the dip technique is that it is very easy to coat both sides of the substrate instead of only one and to deposit otherwise inaccessible surfaces. This method is well suited for applying coating on the inner and outer surfaces of tubes of various diameters and shapes. The main advantage of the dip coating method lies in the fact that it is possible to deposit a variety of layers having good homogeneity and mechanical and chemical stability with a very simple setup. In this paper, the CuO thin films preparation by dip coating method and their characterization will be presented.

Keywords: absorber material, cupric oxide, dip coating, thin film

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Authors: Pierre van Tonder, Dinesh Muthoo, Kim twiname

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Many existing and newly built structures are constructed on the design basis of the engineer and the workmanship of the construction company. However, when considering larger structures where more people are exposed to the building, its structural integrity is of great importance considering the safety of its occupants (Raghu, 2013). But how can the structural integrity of a building be monitored efficiently and effectively. This is where the fourth industrial revolution step in, and with minimal human interaction, data can be collected, analysed, and stored, which could also give an indication of any inconsistencies found in the data collected, this is where the Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) monitoring system is introduced. This paper illustrates how data can be collected and converted to develop stress – strain behaviour and to produce bending moment diagrams for the utilisation and prediction of the structure’s integrity. Embedded fibre optic sensors were used in this study– fibre Bragg grating sensors in particular. The procedure entailed making use of the shift in wavelength demodulation technique and an inscription process of the phase mask technique. The fibre optic sensors considered in this report were photosensitive and embedded in the slab and beams for data collection and analysis. Two sets of fibre cables have been inserted, one purposely to collect temperature recordings and the other to collect strain and temperature. The data was collected over a time period and analysed used to produce bending moment diagrams to make predictions of the structure’s integrity. The data indicated the fibre Bragg grating sensing system proved to be useful and can be used for structural health monitoring in any environment. From the experimental data for the slab and beams, the moments were found to be64.33 kN.m, 64.35 kN.m and 45.20 kN.m (from the experimental bending moment diagram), and as per the idealistic (Ultimate Limit State), the data of 133 kN.m and 226.2 kN.m were obtained. The difference in values gave room for an early warning system, in other words, a reserve capacity of approximately 50% to failure.

Keywords: fibre bragg grating, structural health monitoring, fibre optic sensors, beams

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Authors: Manish Kumar Pillai, Madhavi Pathak Pillai, Rajender Lal, Dinesh P. Sharma

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India has not yet been able to produce many weightlifters in the past years. Karnam Malleshwari is the only woman to win a medal for India in Olympics. When we try to introspect, there seem to be different reasons. One of the probable cause could be the lack of biomechanical analysis for technique improvements. The analysis of motion in sports has gained prime importance for technical improvement. It helps an athlete to develop a better understanding of his own skills and increasing the rate of technical learning process. Kinematics is concerned with describing and quantifying both the linear and angular position of bodies and their time derivatives. The techniques analysis of barbell movement is very important in weightlifting. But women weightlifting has a shorter history than men’s. Research on women weightlifting based on video analysis is less; there is a lack of scientific evidence based on kinematic analysis of especially on Indian weightlifters at national level are limited. Hence, the present investigation was aimed to analyze the barbell kinematics of women weightlifters in India. The study was delimited to the medal winners of 69-kilogram weight category in the All India Inter-University Competition, age ranging between 18 and 28 years. The variables selected for the mechanical analysis of Barbell kinematics included barbell trajectory, velocity, acceleration, potential energy, kinetic energy, mechanical energy, and average power output. The performance was captured during the competition by two DV PC-60 Digital cameras (Panasonic Company, Ltd). Two cameras were placed 6-meters perpendicular to the plane of the motion, 130 cm. above the ground to record/capture the frontal and lateral view of the lifters simultaneously. Video recordings were analyzed by using Dartfish software, and barbell kinematics were analyzed with the information derived with the help of software. The result documented on the basis of the finding of the study clearly states that there are differences in the selected kinematic variables in all three lifters in respect to their technique in five phases during snatch technique using by them.

Keywords: dartfish, digital camera, kinematic, snatch, weightlifting

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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