Search results for: partially observable Markov decision processes

Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Feyi Olorunshola

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Over the last few years, the senior travel market has been noted for its potential in the wider tourism industry. The tourism sector includes the hotel and hospitality, travel, transportation, and several other subdivisions to make it economically viable. In particular, the hotel attracts a substantial part of the expenditure in tourism activities as when people plan to travel, suitable accommodation for relaxation, dining, entertainment and so on is paramount to their decision-making. The global retail value of the hotel as of 2018 was significant for tourism. But, despite indications of the hotel to the tourism industry at large, very few empirical studies are available to establish how this sector can leverage on the senior demographic to achieve competitive advantage. Predominantly, studies on the mature market have focused on destination tourism, with a limited investigation on the hotel which makes a significant contribution to tourism. Also, several scholarly studies have demonstrated the importance of the senior travel market to the hotel, yet there is very little empirical research in the field which has explored the driving factors that will become the accepted new normal for this niche segment post-pandemic. Giving that the hotel already operates in a highly saturated business environment, and on top of this pre-existing challenge, the ongoing global health outbreak has further put the sector in a vulnerable position. Therefore, the hotel especially the full-service luxury category must evolve rapidly for it to survive in the current business environment. The hotel can no longer rely on corporate travelers to generate higher revenue since the unprecedented wake of the pandemic in 2020 many organizations have invented a different approach of conducting their businesses online, therefore, the hotel needs to anticipate a significant drop in business travellers. However, the rooms and the rest of the facilities must be occupied to keep their business operating. The way forward for the hotel lies in the leisure sector, but the question now is to focus on the potential demographics of travelers, in this case, the seniors who have been repeatedly recognized as the lucrative market because of increase discretionary income, availability of time and the global population trends. To achieve the study objectives, a mixed-method approach will be utilized drawing on both qualitative (netnography) and quantitative (survey) methods, cognitive and decision-making theories (means-end chain) and competitive theories to identify the salient drivers explaining senior hotel choice and its influence on their decision-making. The target population are repeated seniors’ age 65 years and over who are UK resident, and from the top tourist market to the UK (USA, Germany, and France). Structural equation modelling will be employed to analyze the datasets. The theoretical implication is the development of new concepts using a robust research design, and as well as advancing existing framework to hotel study. Practically, it will provide the hotel management with the latest information to design a competitive marketing strategy and activities to target the mature market post-pandemic and over a long period.

Keywords: competitive advantage, covid-19, full-service hotel, five-star, luxury hotels

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Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

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While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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Authors: Rabiya, Ramkrishna Sen

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The textile industry releases huge volume of effluent containing reactive dyes in the nearby water bodies. These effluents are significant source of water pollution since most of the dyes are toxic in nature. Moreover, it scavenges the dissolved oxygen essential to the aquatic species. Therefore, it is necessary to treat the dye effluent before it is discharged in the nearby water bodies. The present study focuses on removing the basic dye methylene blue from simulated wastewater using biopolymer. The biopolymer was partially purified from the culture of Bacillus licheniformis by ultrafiltration. Based on the elution profile of the biopolymer from ion exchange column, it was found to be a negatively charged molecule. Its net anionic nature allows the biopolymer to adsorb positively charged molecule, methylene blue. The major factors which influence the removal of dye by the biopolymer such as incubation time, pH, initial dye concentration were evaluated. The methylene blue uptake by the biopolymer is more (14.84 mg/g) near neutral pH than in acidic pH (12.05mg/g) of the water. At low pH, the lower dissociation of the dye molecule as well as the low negative charge available on the biopolymer reduces the interaction between the biopolymer and dye. The optimum incubation time for maximum removal of dye was found to be 60 min. The entire study was done with 25 mL of dye solution in 100 mL flask at 25 °C with an amount of 11g/L of biopolymer. To study the adsorption isotherm, the dye concentration was varied in the range of 25mg/L to 205mg/L. The dye uptake by the biopolymer against the equilibrium concentration was plotted. The plot indicates that the adsorption of dye by biopolymer follows the Freundlich adsorption isotherm (R-square 0.99). Hence, these studies indicate the potential use of biopolymer for the removal of basic dye from textile wastewater in an ecofriendly and sustainable way.

Keywords: biopolymer, methylene blue dye, textile industry, wastewater

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Authors: Saeid Seddegh, Xiaolin Wang, Alan D. Henderson, Dong Chen, Oliver Oims

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The main objective of this research is to study the heat transfer processes and phase change behaviour of a phase change material (PCM) in shell and tube latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems. The thermal behaviour in a vertical and horizontal shell-and-tube heat energy storage system using a pure thermal conduction model and a combined conduction-convection heat transfer model is compared in this paper. The model is first validated using published experimental data available in literature and then used to study the temperature variation, solid-liquid interface, phase distribution, total melting and solidification time during melting and solidification processes of PCMs. The simulated results show that the combined convection and conduction model can better describe the energy transfer in PCMs during melting process. In contrast, heat transfer by conduction is more significant during the solidification process since the two models show little difference. Also, it was concluded that during the charging process for the horizontal orientation, convective heat transfer has a strong effect on melting of the upper part of the solid PCM and is less significant during melting of the lower half of the solid PCM. However, in the vertical orientation, convective heat transfer is the same active during the entire charging process. In the solidification process, the thermal behavior does not show any difference between horizontal and vertical systems.

Keywords: latent heat thermal energy storage, phase change material, natural convection, melting, shell and tube heat exchanger, melting, solidification

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Authors: Satish Kumar, Spandan Sahu, Sarjati Sahoo, K. K. Khatua

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An experimental investigation has been carried out in a tilting flume of 2 m wide, 13 m long, and 0.3 m deep to study the effect of flow on the formation of braided channel pattern. Sediment flow is recirculated through the flume, which passes from the headgate to the sediment/water collecting tank through the tailgate. Further, without altering the geometry of the sand bed channel, the discharge is varied to study the effect of the formation of the braided pattern with time. Then the flow rate is varied to study the effect of flow on the formation of the braided pattern. Sediment transport rate is highly variable and was found to be a nonlinear function of flow rate, aspect ratio, longitudinal slope, and time. Total braided intensity (BIT) for each discharge case is found to be more than the active braided intensity (BIA). Both the parameters first increase and then decrease as the time progresses following a similar pattern for all the observed discharge cases. When the flow is increased, the movement of sediment also increases since the active braided intensity is found to adjust quickly. The measurement of velocity and boundary shear helps to study the erosion and sedimentation processes in the channel and formation of small meandering channels and then the braided channel for different discharge conditions of a sediment river. Due to regime properties of rivers, both total braided Intensity and active braided intensity become stable for a given channel and flow conditions. In the present case, the trend of the ratio of BIA to BIT is found to be asymptotic against the time with a value of 0.4. After the particular time elapses off the flow, new small channels are also found to be formed with changes in the sinuosity of the active channels, thus forming the braided network. This is due to the continuous erosion and sedimentation processes occurring for the flow process for the flow and sediment conditions.

Keywords: active braided intensity, bed load, sediment transport, shear stress, total braided intensity

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Authors: Undiyaundeye Florence Atube, Ugar Innocent A.

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Young children are active learners who use all their senses to build concepts and ideas from their experiences. The process of learning, the content and the outcomes, is vital for young children. They need time to explore whether they are satisfied with what is learnt. Of all levels of education, early childhood education is considered to be most critical for the social, emotional, cognitive and physical development. For this reason, the teachers for early years need to play a significant role in the teaching and learning process through the provision of a friendly environment in the school. A case study approach was used in this study. The information was gathered through various methods like class observation, field notes, documents analysis, group processes, and semi structured interviews. The group processes participants and interviewees were taken from some stakeholders such as parents, students, teachers, and head teachers from public schools, to have a broad and comprehensive analysis, informal interaction with different stakeholders and self-reflection was used to clarify aspects of varying issues and findings. The teachers’ roles in developing a child friendly environment in personal capacity to learning were found to improve a pupils learning ability. Prior to early child development education, learning experiences and pedagogical content knowledge played a vital role in engaging teachers in developing their thinking and teaching practice. Children can be helped to develop independent self-control and self-reliance with careful planning and development of the child’s experience with sensitive and appropriate interaction by the educator to propel eagerness to learn through the provision of a friendly environment.

Keywords: child friendly environment, early childhood, education and development, teaching, learning and the curriculum

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Authors: Geovana Soncin, Larissa Berti

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Some aspects of prosody acquisition remain still unclear, especially regarding atypical speech development processes. This work deals with prosody acquisition and its implications for clinical purposes. Therefore, we analyze speech samples produced by adult speakers, children in typical language development, and children with phonological disorders. Phonological disorder comprises deviating manifestations characterized by inconsistencies in the phonological representation of a linguistic system under acquisition. The clinical assessment is performed mostly based on contrasts whose manifestations occur in the segmental level of a phonological system. Prosodic organization of spoken utterances is not included in the standard assessment. However, assuming that prosody is part of the phonological system, it was hypothesized that children with Phonological Disorders could present inconsistencies that also occur at a prosodic level. Based on this hypothesis, the paper aims to analyze contrastive focus marking in the speech of children with Phonological Disorders in comparison with the speech of children under Typical Language Development and adults. The participants of all groups were native speakers of Brazilian Portuguese. The investigation was designed in such a way as to identify differences and similarities among the groups that could be interpreted as clues of normal or deviant processes of prosody acquisition. Contrastive focus in Brazilian Portuguese is marked by increasing duration, f0, and intensity on the focused element as well as by a particular type of pitch accent (L*+H). Thirty-nine subjects participated, thirteen from each group. Acoustic analysis was performed, considering duration, intensity, and intonation as parameters. Children with PD were recruited in sessions from a service provided by Speech-Language Pathology Therapy; children in TD, paired in age and sex with the first group, were recruited in a regular school; and 20-24 years old adults were recruited from a University class. In a game prepared to elicit focused sentences, all of them produced the sentence “Girls love red dress,” marking focus on different syntactic positions: subject, verb, and object. Results showed that adults, children in typical language development, and children with Phonological Disorders marked contrastive focus differently: typical children used all parameters like adults do; however, in comparison with them, they exaggerated duration and, in the opposite direction, they did not increase f0 in a sufficient magnitude as adults; children with Phonological Disorder presented inconsistencies in duration, not increasing it in some syntactic positions, and also in intonation, not producing the representative pitch accent of contrastive focus. The results suggest prosody is also affected by phonological disorder and give clues of developmental processes of prosody acquisition.

Keywords: Brazilian Portuguese, contrastive focus, phonological disorder, prosody acquisition

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Authors: Odeyemi Ifeoluwayemi, Maha Joushua, Fulani Omoyeni

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In the search for sustainability, over time, architectural approaches to design have moved from just nature inspired design to the study of nature’s principles to produce effective designs that solve the issue of sustainability. Nature has established materials, shapes and processes that are effective right from a minor scale to an enormous scale. A branch of human knowledge that studies nature is called biology. Biology helps us to grasp and understand nature. Biomimicry is a new way of viewing and valuing nature, based not on what we can extract from the natural world but on what we can learn from it. Life has sustained on the earth for the last 3.85 billion years, and it is necessary for us to find out how life has been able to stay sustained for that long. The building must teach the society new ecological morals, thus, a better understanding of how nature works can usefully inspire architectural designs to resolve issues that have already been resolved by nature. This will not only help in creating a healthy environment but will also produce positive environmental impacts. Biomimetic Architecture connects and reproduces the ideologies found in nature in order to create built environment which benefit people and other living creatures as well as preserving it for the future. Understanding the bioprocess would lead to the establishment of ecological approaches that serve as a platform for creating a built environment that goes beyond sustaining current settings but also mimic nature’s regenerative ecosystem. This paper aims to explain these design methods under the name of biomimicry and biomimetic architecture by reviewing literature and research works done by examining these approaches classified as forms, processes and ecosystems. It is expected that this research will provide information that would, therefore, lead to the creation of buildings that are eco-friendly and provide greater comfort to the populaces.

Keywords: biomimetic architecture, biomimicry, ecological design, nature

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Authors: Katalin Kovacs

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In most forms of violence the perpetrators intend to hide their identities. Terrorism is different. Terrorist groups often take responsibility for their attacks, and consequently they reveal their identities. This unique characteristic of terrorism has been largely overlooked, and scholars are still puzzled as to why terrorist groups claim responsibility for their attacks. Certainly, the claim of responsibility is worth analysing. It would help to have a clearer picture of what terrorist groups try to achieve and how, but also to develop an understanding of the strategic planning of terrorist attacks and the message the terrorists intend to deliver. The research aims to answer the question why terrorist groups choose to claim responsibility for some of their attacks and not for others. In order to do so the claim of responsibility is considered to be a tactical choice, based on the assumption that terrorists weigh the costs and benefits of claiming responsibility. The main argument is that terrorist groups do not claim responsibility in cases when there is no tactical advantage gained from claiming responsibility. The idea that the claim of responsibility has tactical value offers the opportunity to test these assertions using a large scale empirical analysis. The claim of responsibility as a tactical choice depends on other tactical choices, such as the choice of target, the internationality of the attack, the number of victims and whether the group occupies territory or operates as an underground group. The structure of the terrorist groups and the level of decision making also affects the claim of responsibility. Terrorists on the lower level are less disciplined than the leaders. This means that the terrorists on lower levels pay less attention to the strategic objectives and engage easier in indiscriminate violence, and consequently they would less like to claim responsibility. Therefore, the research argues that terrorists, who are on a highest level of decision making would claim responsibility for the attacks as those are who takes into account the strategic objectives. As most studies on terrorism fail to provide definitions; therefore the researches are fragmented and incomparable. Separate, isolated researches do not support comprehensive thinking. It is also very important to note that there are only a few researches using quantitative methods. The aim of the research is to develop a new and comprehensive overview of the claim of responsibility based on strong quantitative evidence. By using well-established definitions and operationalisation the current research focuses on a broad range of attributes that can have tactical values in order to determine circumstances when terrorists are more likely to claim responsibility.

Keywords: claim of responsibility, leadership, tactical choice, terrorist group

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Authors: Jessica M. Black

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Although much of natural and social science research aims to enhance human flourishing and address social problems, the training within the two fields is significantly different across theory, methodology, and implementation of results. Social scientists are trained in social, psychological, and to the extent that it is relevant to their discipline, spiritual development, theory, and accompanying methodologies. They tend not to receive training or learn about accompanying methodology related to interrogating human development and social problems from a biological perspective. On the other hand, those in the natural sciences, and for the purpose of this work, human biological sciences specifically – biology, neuroscience, genetics, epigenetics, and physiology – are often trained first to consider cellular development and related methodologies, and may not have opportunity to receive formal training in many of the foundational principles that guide human development, such as systems theory or person-in-environment framework, methodology related to tapping both proximal and distal psycho-social-spiritual influences on human development, and foundational principles of equity, justice and inclusion in research design. There is a need for disciplines heretofore siloed to know one another, to receive streamlined, easy to access training in theory and methods from one another and to learn how to build interdisciplinary teams that can speak and act upon a shared research language. Team science is more essential than ever, as are transdisciplinary approaches to training and research design. This study explores the use of a methodological toolbox that natural and social scientists can use by employing a decision-making tree regarding project aims, costs, and participants, among other important study variables. The decision tree begins with a decision about whether the researcher wants to learn more about social sciences approaches or biological approaches to study design. The toolbox and platform are flexible, such that users could also choose among modules, for instance, reviewing epigenetics or community-based participatory research even if those are aspects already a part of their home field. To start, both natural and social scientists would receive training on systems science, team science, transdisciplinary approaches, and translational science. Next, social scientists would receive training on grounding biological theory and the following methodological approaches and tools: physiology, (epi)genetics, non-invasive neuroimaging, invasive neuroimaging, endocrinology, and the gut-brain connection. Natural scientists would receive training on grounding social science theory, and measurement including variables, assessment and surveys on human development as related to the developing person (e.g., temperament and identity), microsystems (e.g., systems that directly interact with the person such as family and peers), mesosystems (e.g., systems that interact with one another but do not directly interact with the individual person, such as parent and teacher relationships with one another), exosystems (e.g., spaces and settings that may come back to affect the individual person, such as a parent’s work environment, but within which the individual does not directly interact, macrosystems (e.g., wider culture and policy), and the chronosystem (e.g., historical time, such as the generational impact of trauma). Participants will be able to engage with the toolbox and one another to foster increased transdisciplinary work

Keywords: methodology, natural science, social science, transdisciplinary

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Authors: Okafor E. Ijeoma, Isimi C. Yetunde, Okoh E. Judith, Kunle O. Olobayo, Emeje O. Martins

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Starch has gained interest as a renewable and environmentally compatible polymer due to the increase in its use. However, starch by itself could not be satisfactorily applied in industrial processes due to some inherent disadvantages such as its hydrophilic character, poor mechanical properties, its inability to withstand processing conditions such as extreme temperatures, diverse pH, high shear rate, freeze-thaw variation and dimensional stability. The range of physical properties of parent starch can be enlarged by chemical modification which invariably enhances their use in a number of applications found in industrial processes and food manufacture. In this study, Manihot esculentus starch was subjected to modification by oxidation. Fourier Transmittance Infra- Red (FTIR) and Raman spectroscopies were used to confirm the synthesis while Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and X- Ray Diffraction (XRD) were used to characterize the new polymer. DPPH (2, 2-diphenyl-1-picryl-hydrazyl-hydrate) free radical assay was used to determine the antioxidant property of the oxidized starch. Our results show that the modification had no significant effect on the foaming capacity as well as on the emulsion capacity. Scanning electron microscopy revealed that oxidation did not alter the predominantly circular-shaped starch granules, while the X-ray pattern of both starch, native and modified were similar. FTIR results revealed a new band at 3007 and 3283cm-1. Differential scanning calorimetry returned two new endothermic peaks in the oxidized starch with an improved gelation capacity and increased enthalpy of gelatinization. The IC50 of oxidized starch was notably higher than that of the reference standard, ascorbic acid.

Keywords: antioxidant activity, DPPH, M. esculentus, oxidation, starch

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Authors: Panas Gerasimos, Kotidou Varvara, Halkiopoulos Constantinos, Gkintoni Evgenia

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As a result of growing technology and briefing by the internet, users resort to the internet and subsequently to the opinion of an expert. In many cases, they take control of their health in their hand and make a decision without the contribution of a doctor. According to that, this essay intends to analyze the confidence of searching health issues on the internet. For the fulfillment of this study, there has been a survey among doctors in order to find out the reasons a patient uses the internet about their health problems and the consequences that health information could lead by searching on the internet, as well. Specifically, the results regarding the research of the users demonstrate: a) the majority of users make use of the internet about health issues once or twice a month, b) individuals that possess chronic disease make health search on the internet more frequently, c) the most important topics that the majority of users usually search are pathological, dietary issues and the search of issues that are associated with doctors and hospitals. However, it observed that topic search varies depending on the users’ age, d) the most common sources of information concern the direct contact with doctors, as there is a huge preference from the majority of users over the use of the electronic form for their briefing and e) it has been observed that there is large lack of knowledge about e-health services. From the doctor's point of view, the following conclusions occur: a) almost all doctors use the internet as their main source of information, b) the internet has great influence over doctors’ relationship with the patients, c) in many cases a patient first makes a visit to the internet and then to the doctor, d) the internet significantly has a psychological impact on patients in order to for them to reach a decision, e) the most important reason users choose the internet instead of the health professional is economic, f) the negative consequence that emerges is inaccurate information, g) and the positive consequences are about the possibility of online contact with the doctor and contributes to the easy comprehension of the doctor, as well. Generally, it’s observed from both sides that the use of the internet in health issues is intense, which declares that the new means the doctors have at their disposal, produce the conditions for radical changes in the way of providing services and in the doctor-patient relationship.

Keywords: cognitive models, health marketing, e-health, psychological factors, digital marketing, e-health services

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Authors: Eduardo Costa

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Hospital strikes in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) are becoming increasingly frequent, raising concerns in what respects patient safety. In fact, data shows that mortality rates for patients admitted during strikes are up to 30% higher than for patients admitted in other days. This paper analyses the effects of hospital strikes on patients’ outcomes. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of different strikes (physicians, nurses and other health professionals), on in-hospital mortality rates, readmission rates and length of stay. The paper uses patient-level data containing all NHS hospital admissions in mainland Portugal from 2012 to 2017, together with a comprehensive strike dataset comprising over 250 strike days (19 physicians-strike days, 150 nurses-strike days and 50 other health professionals-strike days) from 135 different strikes. The paper uses a linear probability model and controls for hospital and regional characteristics, time trends, and changes in patients’ composition and diagnoses. Preliminary results suggest a 6-7% increase in in-hospital mortality rates for patients exposed to physicians’ strikes. The effect is smaller for patients exposed to nurses’ strikes (2-5%). Patients exposed to nurses strikes during their stay have, on average, higher 30-days urgent readmission rates (4%). Length of stay also seems to increase for patients exposed to any strike. Results – conditional on further testing, namely on non-linear models - suggest that hospital operations and service levels are partially disrupted during strikes.

Keywords: health sector strikes, in-hospital mortality rate, length of stay, readmission rate

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Authors: Priyanka Botny Srinath, Alessandro Suglia, Mel McKendrick

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Background: Organizational cultural studies integrate sociology and anthropology, portraying man as a creator of symbols, languages, beliefs, and ideologies -essentially, a creator and manager of meaning. In our research, we leverage analytical measures to discern whether an organization embodies a singular culture or a myriad of subcultures. Fast-forward to 2023, our research thesis focuses on digitally measuring culture, coining it as the "Work Culture Quotient." This entails conceptually mapping common experiential patterns to provide executives insights into the digital organization journey, aiding in understanding their current position and identifying future steps. Objectives: Finding the new age skills that help in defining the culture; understand the implications of post-COVID effects; derive a digital framework for measuring skillsets. Method: We conducted two comprehensive Delphi studies to distill essential insights. Delphi 1: Through a thematic analysis of interviews with 20 high-level leaders representing companies across diverse regions -India, Japan, the US, Canada, Morocco, and Uganda- we identified 20 key skills critical for cultivating a robust organizational culture. The skills are -influence, self-confidence, optimism, empathy, leadership, collaboration and cooperation, developing others, commitment, innovativeness, leveraging diversity, change management, team capabilities, self-control, digital communication, emotional awareness, team bonding, communication, problem solving, adaptability, and trustworthiness. Delphi 2: Subject matter experts were asked to complete a questionnaire derived from the thematic analysis in stage 1 to formalise themes and draw consensus amongst experts on the most important workplace skills. Results: The thematic analysis resulted in 20 workplace employee skills being identified. These skills were all included in the Delphi round 2 questionnaire. From the outputs, we analysed the data using R Studio for arriving at agreement and consensus, we also used sum of squares method to compare various agreements to extract various themes with a threshold of 80% agreements. This yielded three themes at over 80% agreement (leadership, collaboration and cooperation, communication) and three further themes at over 60% agreement (commitment, empathy, trustworthiness). From this, we selected five questionnaires to be included in the primary data collection phase, and these will be paired with the digital footprints to provide a workplace culture quotient. Implications: The findings from these studies bear profound implications for decision-makers, revolutionizing their comprehension of organizational culture. Tackling the challenge of mapping the digital organization journey involves innovative methodologies that probe not only external landscapes but also internal cultural dynamics. This holistic approach furnishes decision-makers with a nuanced understanding of their organizational culture and visualizes pivotal skills for employee growth. This clarity enables informed choices resonating with the organization's unique cultural fabric. Anticipated outcomes transcend mere individual cultural measurements, aligning with organizational goals to unveil a comprehensive view of culture, exposing artifacts and depth. Armed with this profound understanding, decision-makers gain tangible evidence for informed decision-making, strategically leveraging cultural strengths to cultivate an environment conducive to growth, innovation, and enduring success, ultimately leading to measurable outcomes.

Keywords: leadership, cooperation, collaboration, teamwork, work culture

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Authors: Marc Romero-Estonllo, Judith Ramos-Castro, Yaiza San Miguel, Beatriz Rodríguez-Garrido, Carmela Monterroso

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Mining activity is among the main sources of trace and heavy metal(loid) pollution worldwide, which is a hazard to human and environmental health. That is why several projects have been emerging for the remediation of such polluted places. Phytomanagement strategies draw good performances besides big side benefits. In this work, a glasshouse assay with trace element polluted soils from an old Cu mine ore (NW of Spain) which forms part of the PhytoSUDOE network of phytomanaged contaminated field sites (PhytoSUDOE Project (SOE1/P5/E0189)) was set. The objective was to evaluate improvements induced by the following phytoremediation-related treatments. Three increasingly complex amendments alone or together with plant growth (Populus nigra L. alone and together with Tripholium repens L.) were tested. And three different rhizosphere bioinocula were applied (Plant Growth Promoting Bacteria (PGP), mycorrhiza (MYC), or mixed (PGP+MYC)). After 110 days of growth, plants were collected, biomass was weighed, and tree length was measured. Physical-chemical analyses were carried out to determine pH, effective Cation Exchange Capacity, carbon and nitrogen contents, bioavailable phosphorous (Olsen bicarbonate method), pseudo total element content (microwave acid digested fraction), EDTA extractable metals (complexed fraction), and NH4NO3 extractable metals (easily bioavailable fraction). On plant material, nitrogen content and acid digestion elements were determined. Amendment usage, plant growth, and bioinoculation were demonstrated to improve soil fertility and/or plant health within the time span of this study. Particularly, pH levels increased from 3 (highly acidic) to 5 (acidic) in the worst-case scenario, even reaching 7 (neutrality) in the best plots. Organic matter and pH increments were related to polluting metals’ bioavailability decrements. Plants grew better both with the most complex amendment and the middle one, with few differences due to bioinoculation. Using the less complex amendment (just compost) beneficial effects of bioinoculants were more observable, although plants didn’t thrive very well. On unamended soils, plants neither sprouted nor bloomed. The scheme assayed in this study is suitable for phytomanagement of these kinds of soils affected by mining activity. These findings should be tested now on a larger scale.

Keywords: aided phytoremediation, mine pollution, phytostabilization, soil pollution, trace elements

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Authors: Hasmik V. Zanginyan, Gayane S. Ghazaryan, Laura M. Hovsepyan

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Experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) is an inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system that is induced in laboratory animals by developing an immune response against myelin epitopes. The typical clinical course is ascending palsy, which correlates with inflammation and tissue damage in the thoracolumbar spinal cord, although the optic nerves and brain (especially the subpial white matter and brainstem) are also often affected. With multiple sclerosis, there is a violation of lipid metabolism in myelin. When membrane lipids (glycosphingolipids, phospholipids) are disturbed, metabolites not only play a structural role in membranes but are also sources of secondary mediators that transmit multiple cellular signals. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of ganglioside as a therapeutic agent in experimental multiple sclerosis. The biological activity of a ganglioside-containing medicinal preparation (Cronassial) was evaluated in an experimental model of multiple sclerosis in laboratory animals. An experimental model of multiple sclerosis in rats was obtained by immunization with myelin basic protein (MBP), as well as homogenization of the spinal cord or brain. EAE was induced by administering a mixture of an encephalitogenic mixture (EGM) with Complete Freund’s Adjuvant. Mitochondrial fraction was isolated in a medium containing 0,25 M saccharose and 0, 01 M tris buffer, pH - 7,4, by a method of differential centrifugation on a K-24 centrifuge. Glutathione peroxidase activity was assessed by reduction reactions of hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) and lipid hydroperoxides (ROOH) in the presence of GSH. LPO activity was assessed by the amount of malondialdehyde (MDA) in the total homogenate and mitochondrial fraction of the spinal cord and brain of control and experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis rats. MDA was assessed by a reaction with Thiobarbituric acid. For statistical data analysis on PNP, SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Science) package was used. The nature of the distribution of the obtained data was determined by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov criterion. The comparative analysis was performed using a nonparametric Mann-Whitney test. The differences were statistically significant when р ≤ 0,05 or р ≤ 0,01. Correlational analysis was conducted using a nonparametric Spearman test. In the work, refrigeratory centrifuge, spectrophotometer LKB Biochrom ULTROSPECII (Sweden), pH-meter PL-600 mrc (Israel), guanosine, and ATP (Sigma). The study of the process of lipid peroxidation in the total homogenate of the brain and spinal cord in experimental animals revealed an increase in the content of malonic dialdehyde. When applied, Cronassial observed normalization of lipid peroxidation processes. Reactive oxygen species, causing lipid peroxidation processes, can be toxic both for neurons and for oligodendrocytes that form myelin, causing a violation of their lipid composition. The high content of lipids in the brain and the uniqueness of their structure determines the nature of the development of LPO processes. The lipid layer of cellular and intracellular membranes performs two main functions -barrier and matrix (structural). Damage to the barrier leads to dysregulation of intracellular processes and severe disorders of cellular functions.

Keywords: experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, multiple sclerosis, neuroinflammation, therapy

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Authors: C. Slim

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This paper presents an integrated model, which hybridized data envelopment analysis (DEA) and support vector machine (SVM) together, to class countries according to their efficiency and performance. This model takes into account aspects of multi-dimensional indicators, decision-making hierarchy and relativity of measurement. Starting from a set of indicators of performance as exhaustive as possible, a process of successive aggregations has been developed to attain an overall evaluation of a country’s competitiveness.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support vector machine (SVM), Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Aggregations, indicators of performance

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Authors: Usama Mohamed, Sam Booth, Aliysn J. Nedoma

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As part of the transition to electric vehicles, there has been a recent increase in demand for battery manufacturing. Cathodes typically account for approximately 50% of the total lithium-ion battery cell cost and are a pivotal factor in determining the viability of new industrial infrastructure. Cathodes which offer lower costs whilst maintaining or increasing performance, such as nickel-rich layered cathodes, have a significant competitive advantage when scaling up the manufacturing process. This project evaluates the techno-economic value proposition of an integrated industrial scale cathode active material (CAM) production process, closing the mass and energy balances, and optimizing the operation conditions using a sensitivity analysis. This is done by developing a process model of a co-precipitation synthesis route using Aspen Plus software and validated based on experimental data. The mechanism chemistry and equilibrium conditions were established based on previous literature and HSC-Chemistry software. This is then followed by integrating the energy streams, adding waste recovery and treatment processes, as well as testing the effect of key parameters (temperature, pH, reaction time, etc.) on CAM production yield and emissions. Finally, an economic analysis estimating the fixed and variable costs (including capital expenditure, labor costs, raw materials, etc.) to calculate the cost of CAM ($/kg and $/kWh), total plant cost ($) and net present value (NPV). This work sets the foundational blueprint for future research into sustainable industrial scale processes for CAM manufacturing.

Keywords: cathodes, industrial production, nickel-rich layered cathodes, process modelling, techno-economic analysis

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Authors: H. Trabelsi, A. Chehma, I. Benseddik

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Animals can play an important role in the seed dispersal cycle through the active or passive uptake of seeds and the subsequent external (epizoochory) or internal transport (endozoochory) of seeds. In Algeria, small ruminants and camels are generally conducted in extensive livestock exploiting the Saharan and steppe rangelands. To get an idea on the ecological potential role of these animals in the spontaneous plants proliferation, we propose to make a study of seeds dispersal and germination possibilities by camel faeces compared to those of small ruminants. Manual faeces decortication of the two animals categories has allowed to inventory 72 seed which 71% are in good condition, while 29% of the seeds that are encountered are partially altered and could not be identified. The species that have been identified, from small ruminants dung are weeds of cultures, while those identified from camel dung are spontaneous plants of Saharan rangeland. Concerning germination in the laboratory, only 3 species seeds were germinated from camel feces, whose germination rate varies from 25% to 100%. Contrary to Sheep-Goat feces, a single species germinated with 71%. The three months seed germination in greenhouse allowed to identify 10 species belonging to 4 botanical families (5 species from small ruminants dung and 3 species from Camel dung). In general, the results show the positive effect played by two animals categories for plants seed dispersal with the camel particularity for spontaneous plants due to its capacity to cover long distances in different rangeland types.

Keywords: Algeria, camel, endozoochory, seeds, sheep-goat, rangeland

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Authors: Yan Huang

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Event-related potentials (ERPs) technique helps researchers to make continuous measures on the whole process of language comprehension, with an excellent temporal resolution at the level of milliseconds. The research on sentence processing has developed from the behavioral level to the neuropsychological level, which brings about a variety of sentence processing theories and models. However, the applicability of these models to L2 learners is still under debate. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying English subjunctive mood processing by Chinese ESL learners. To this end, English subject clauses with subjunctive moods are used as the stimuli, all of which follow the same syntactic structure, “It is + adjective + that … + (should) do + …” Besides, in order to examine the role that language proficiency plays on L2 processing, this research deals with two groups of Chinese ESL learners (18 males and 22 females, mean age=21.68), namely, high proficiency group (Group H) and low proficiency group (Group L). Finally, the behavioral and neurophysiological data analysis reveals the following findings: 1) Syntax and semantics interact with each other on the SECOND phase (300-500ms) of sentence processing, which is partially in line with the Three-phase Sentence Model; 2) Language proficiency does affect L2 processing. Specifically, for Group H, it is the syntactic processing that plays the dominant role in sentence processing while for Group L, semantic processing also affects the syntactic parsing during the THIRD phase of sentence processing (500-700ms). Besides, Group H, compared to Group L, demonstrates a richer native-like ERPs pattern, which further demonstrates the role of language proficiency in L2 processing. Based on the research findings, this paper also provides some enlightenment for the L2 pedagogy as well as the L2 proficiency assessment.

Keywords: Chinese ESL learners, English subjunctive mood, ERPs, L2 processing

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Authors: Santosh Thapa, Sankar Gurung

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Chaupadi is a tradition widely practiced in the far and mid-western region of Nepal. It is a practice where girls and women are not allowed to inter the house and touch the food, water and milk during their menstruation period of 4-7 days. They have to spend all the nights during the period in a specific hut (Chhaupadi Goth) which is a bit far from their residence where they faces various kinds of risk and violence like bullying, snakes and insect bite, wild animal attack etc. Sometimes the girls even do not go to school during their menstruation periods. After childbirth, the woman must stay in a cow shed for 11 days in such Chhaupadi practiced areas. This study limits the Achham district of the far western region which is the most vulnerable Chhaupadi practicing district. Several governmental and non-governmental organizations have been involving and spending huge amount of money for capacity building and awareness raising campaign for last 2 decades but still 9 out of 75 Village Development Committees (VDCs) have been partially practicing Chaupadi in the district. This study shows that the school attendance rate of the girls during the period have visibly increased which helps to increase the number of the girl graduation as well. Similarly, the practice of Chhaupadi is one of the reasons for increasing the number of cases of uterus prolapsus and poor reproductive health of women and girls. Triggering tools are the one of the best ways to accelerate the awareness campaign in the VDCs. This study recommends that the local bodies should coordinate and lead the overall awareness campaign program to sustain the Chaupadi free VDCs.

Keywords: awareness campaign, chaupadi practice, gender discrimination, violence

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Authors: Poonam A. Trambadia, Ashish V. Trambadia

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The architecture of sultanate period of Ahmedabad had evolved just before the establishment of Mughal rule in North India. After shifting the capital of the kingdom from Patan to Ahmedabad, when the buildings and structures were being built, an interesting cultural blend happened in architecture. Many sultanate buildings in Ahmedabad historic city have resemblance with Patan including the names. Outer fortification walls and Gates were built during the rule of the third ruler in the late 15th century. All the gates had sandstone slabs supported by three arched entrance in sandstone with wooden shutter. A restoration project of Khanpur Gate was initiated in 2016. The paper identifies some evidences and some hidden layers of structures as important elements of cultural interchange while some were just forgotten in the process. The recycling of pre-existing elements of structures are examined and compared. There were layers uncovered that were hidden behind later repairs using traditional brick arch, which was taken out in the process. As the gate had partially collapsed, the restoration included piece by piece dismantling and restoring in the same sequence wherever required. The recycled materials found in the process were recorded and provided the basis for this study. The gate after this discovery sets a new example of fortification Gate built in Sultanate era. The comparison excludes Maratha and British Period Gates to avoid further confusion and focuses on 15th – 16th century sultanate architecture of Ahmedabad.

Keywords: Ahmedabad World Heritage, fortification, Indo-Islamic style, Sultanate architecture, cultural interchange

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Authors: Swathi Gopakumar, Sruthi Krishna, Shivasubramani Krishnamoorthy

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Contactless, painless and radiation-free thermal imaging technology is one of the preferred screening modalities for detection of breast cancer. However, poor signal to noise ratio and the inexorable need to preserve edges defining cancer cells and normal cells, make the segmentation process difficult and hence unsuitable for computer-aided diagnosis of breast cancer. This paper presents key findings from a research conducted on the appraisal of two promising techniques, for the detection of breast cancer: (I) marker-controlled, Level-set segmentation of anisotropic diffusion filtered preprocessed image versus (II) Segmentation using marker-controlled level-set on a Gaussian-filtered image. Gaussian-filtering processes the image uniformly, whereas anisotropic filtering processes only in specific areas of a thermographic image. The pre-processed (Gaussian-filtered and anisotropic-filtered) images of breast samples were then applied for segmentation. The segmentation of breast starts with initial level-set function. In this study, marker refers to the position of the image to which initial level-set function is applied. The markers are generally placed on the left and right side of the breast, which may vary with the breast size. The proposed method was carried out on images from an online database with samples collected from women of varying breast characteristics. It was observed that the breast was able to be segmented out from the background by adjustment of the markers. From the results, it was observed that as a pre-processing technique, anisotropic filtering with level-set segmentation, preserved the edges more effectively than Gaussian filtering. Segmented image, by application of anisotropic filtering was found to be more suitable for feature extraction, enabling automated computer-aided diagnosis of breast cancer.

Keywords: anisotropic diffusion, breast, Gaussian, level-set, thermograms

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Authors: Deane Roehl, Roberto Quevedo

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Gas migration from pressurized formations is a problem reported in the oil and gas industry. This means increased risks for drilling, production, well integrity, and hydrocarbon escape. Different processes can contribute to the development of pressurized formations, particularly in High-Pressure–High-Temperature (HPHT) gas fields. Over geological time-scales, the different formations of those fields have maintained and/or developed abnormal pressures owing to low permeability and the presence of an impermeable seal. However, if this seal is broken, large volumes of gas could migrate into other less pressurized formations. Three main mechanisms for gas migration have been identified in the literature –molecular diffusion, continuous-phase flow, and continuous-phase flow coupled with mechanical effects. In relation to the latter, gas migration can occur as a consequence of the mechanical effects triggered by reservoir depletion. The compaction of the reservoir can redistribute the in-situ stresses sufficiently to induce deformations that may increase the permeability of rocks and lead to fracture processes or reactivate nearby faults. The understanding of gas flow through discontinuities is still under development. However, some models based on porosity changes and fracture aperture have been developed in order to obtain enhanced permeabilities in numerical simulations. In this work, a simple relationship to integrate fluid flow through rock matrix and discontinuities has been implemented in a fully thermo-hydro-mechanical simulator developed in-house. Numerical simulations of hydrocarbon production in an HPHT field were carried out. Results suggest that rock permeability can be considerably affected by the deformation of the field, creating preferential flow paths for the transport of large volumes of gas.

Keywords: gas migration, pressurized formations, fractured rocks, numerical modeling

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Authors: Adhimoolam Saravana Kumar, K. N. Govindarajan, B. Devanand, R. Rajakumar

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The quality of Computed Tomography (CT) procedures has improved in recent years due to technological developments and increased diagnostic ability of CT scanners. Due to the fact that CT doses are the peak among diagnostic radiology practices, it is of great significance to be aware of patient’s CT radiation dose whenever a CT examination is preferred. CT radiation dose delivered to patients in the form of volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) values, is displayed on scanner monitors at the end of each examination and it is an important fact to assure that this information is accurate. The objective of this study was to estimate the CTDIvol values for great number of patients during the most frequent CT examinations, to study the comparison between CT dose monitor values and measured ones, as well as to highlight the fluctuation of CTDIvol values for the same CT examination at different centres and scanner models. The output CT dose indices measurements were carried out on single and multislice scanners for available kV, 5 mm slice thickness, 100 mA and FOV combination used. The 100 CT scanners were involved in this study. Data with regard to 15,000 examinations in patients, who underwent routine head, chest and abdomen CT were collected using a questionnaire sent to a large number of hospitals. Out of the 15,000 examinations, 5000 were head CT examinations, 5000 were chest CT examinations and 5000 were abdominal CT examinations. Comprehensive quality assurance (QA) was performed for all the machines involved in this work. Followed by QA, CT phantom dose measurements were carried out in South India using actual scanning parameters used clinically by the hospitals. From this study, we have measured the mean divergence between the measured and displayed CTDIvol values were 5.2, 8.4, and -5.7 for selected head, chest and abdomen procedures for protocols as mentioned above, respectively. Thus, this investigation revealed an observable change in CT practices, with a much wider range of studies being performed currently in South India. This reflects the improved capacity of CT scanners to scan longer scan lengths and at finer resolutions as permitted by helical and multislice technology. Also, some of the CT scanners have used smaller slice thickness for routine CT procedures to achieve better resolution and image quality. It leads to an increase in the patient radiation dose as well as the measured CTDIv, so it is suggested that such CT scanners should select appropriate slice thickness and scanning parameters in order to reduce the patient dose. If these routine scan parameters for head, chest and abdomen procedures are optimized than the dose indices would be optimal and lead to the lowering of the CT doses. In South Indian region all the CT machines were routinely tested for QA once in a year as per AERB requirements.

Keywords: CT dose index, weighted CTDI, volumetric CTDI, radiation dose

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Authors: Isabella Bianco, Gian Andrea Blengini

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The environmental impact related to ornamental stones (such as marbles and granites) is largely debated. Starting from the industrial revolution, continuous improvements of machineries led to a higher exploitation of this natural resource and to a more international interaction between markets. As a consequence, the environmental impact of the extraction and processing of stones has increased. Nevertheless, if compared with other building materials, ornamental stones are generally more durable, natural, and recyclable. From the scientific point of view, studies on stone life cycle sustainability have been carried out, but these are often partial or not very significant because of the high percentage of approximations and assumptions in calculations. This is due to the lack, in life cycle databases (e.g. Ecoinvent, Thinkstep, and ELCD), of datasets about the specific technologies employed in the stone production chain. For example, databases do not contain information about diamond wires, chains or explosives, materials commonly used in quarries and transformation plants. The project presented in this paper aims to populate the life cycle databases with specific data of specific stone processes. To this goal, the methodology follows the standardized approach of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), according to the requirements of UNI 14040-14044 and to the International Reference Life Cycle Data System (ILCD) Handbook guidelines of the European Commission. The study analyses the processes of the entire production chain (from-cradle-to-gate system boundaries), including the extraction of benches, the cutting of blocks into slabs/tiles and the surface finishing. Primary data have been collected in Italian quarries and transformation plants which use technologies representative of the current state-of-the-art. Since the technologies vary according to the hardness of the stone, the case studies comprehend both soft stones (marbles) and hard stones (gneiss). In particular, data about energy, materials and emissions were collected in marble basins of Carrara and in Beola and Serizzo basins located in the province of Verbano Cusio Ossola. Data were then elaborated through an appropriate software to build a life cycle model. The model was realized setting free parameters that allow an easy adaptation to specific productions. Through this model, the study aims to boost the direct participation of stone companies and encourage the use of LCA tool to assess and improve the stone sector environmental sustainability. At the same time, the realization of accurate Life Cycle Inventory data aims at making available, to researchers and stone experts, ILCD compliant datasets of the most significant processes and technologies related to the ornamental stone sector.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, LCA datasets, ornamental stone, stone environmental impact

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Authors: Ebrahim Ghasemi Ardi, Ai Bing Yu, Run Yu Yang

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Current study is aimed to develop an available in-house discrete element method (DEM) code and link it with direct breakage event. So, it became possible to determine the particle breakage and then its fragments size distribution, simultaneous with DEM simulation. It directly applies the particle breakage inside the DEM computation algorithm and if any breakage happens the original particle is replaced with daughters. In this way, the calculation will be followed based on a new updated particles list which is very similar to the real grinding environment. To validate developed model, a grinding ball impacting an unconfined particle bed was simulated. Since considering an entire ball mill would be too computationally demanding, this method provided a simplified environment to test the model. Accordingly, a representative volume of the ball mill was simulated inside a box, which could emulate media (ball)–powder bed impacts in a ball mill and during particle bed impact tests. Mono, binary and ternary particle beds were simulated to determine the effects of granular composition on breakage kinetics. The results obtained from the DEM simulations showed a reduction in the specific breakage rate for coarse particles in binary mixtures. The origin of this phenomenon, commonly known as cushioning or decelerated breakage in dry milling processes, was explained by the DEM simulations. Fine particles in a particle bed increase mechanical energy loss, and reduce and distribute interparticle forces thereby inhibiting the breakage of the coarse component. On the other hand, the specific breakage rate of fine particles increased due to contacts associated with coarse particles. Such phenomenon, known as acceleration, was shown to be less significant, but should be considered in future attempts to accurately quantify non-linear breakage kinetics in the modeling of dry milling processes.

Keywords: particle bed, breakage models, breakage kinetic, discrete element method

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Authors: Sabrina Neururer, Marco Schweitzer, Werner Hackl, Bernhard Tilg, Patrick Raudaschl, Andreas Huber, Bernhard Pfeifer

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History and the current outbreak of Covid-19 have shown the deadly potential of infectious diseases. However, infectious diseases also have a serious impact on areas other than health and healthcare, such as the economy or social life. These areas are strongly codependent. Therefore, disease control measures, such as social distancing, quarantines, curfews, or lockdowns, have to be adopted in a very considerate manner. Infectious disease modeling can support policy and decision-makers with adequate information regarding the dynamics of the pandemic and therefore assist in planning and enforcing appropriate measures that will prevent the healthcare system from collapsing. In this work, an agent-based simulation package named “survival” for simulating infectious diseases is presented. A special focus is put on SARS-Cov-2. The presented simulation package was used in Austria to model the SARS-Cov-2 outbreak from the beginning of 2020. Agent-based modeling is a relatively recent modeling approach. Since our world is getting more and more complex, the complexity of the underlying systems is also increasing. The development of tools and frameworks and increasing computational power advance the application of agent-based models. For parametrizing the presented model, different data sources, such as known infections, wastewater virus load, blood donor antibodies, circulating virus variants and the used capacity for hospitalization, as well as the availability of medical materials like ventilators, were integrated with a database system and used. The simulation result of the model was used for predicting the dynamics and the possible outcomes and was used by the health authorities to decide on the measures to be taken in order to control the pandemic situation. The survival package was implemented in the programming language Java and the analytics were performed with R Studio. During the first run in March 2020, the simulation showed that without measures other than individual personal behavior and appropriate medication, the death toll would have been about 27 million people worldwide within the first year. The model predicted the hospitalization rates (standard and intensive care) for Tyrol and South Tyrol with an accuracy of about 1.5% average error. They were calculated to provide 10-days forecasts. The state government and the hospitals were provided with the 10-days models to support their decision-making. This ensured that standard care was maintained for as long as possible without restrictions. Furthermore, various measures were estimated and thereafter enforced. Among other things, communities were quarantined based on the calculations while, in accordance with the calculations, the curfews for the entire population were reduced. With this framework, which is used in the national crisis team of the Austrian province of Tyrol, a very accurate model could be created on the federal state level as well as on the district and municipal level, which was able to provide decision-makers with a solid information basis. This framework can be transferred to various infectious diseases and thus can be used as a basis for future monitoring.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, agent-based, SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19

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Authors: Muhammad Hakim Bin Mat Tasir, Erwan Shahfizad Hasidan, Hamidah Makmor Bakry, M. Hafiz B. Izhar

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Every key performance indicator used to monitor a project’s construction progress emphasizes trade productivity or specific commodity run-down curves. Examples include the productivity of welding by the number of joints completed per day, quantity of NDT (Non-Destructive Tests) inspection per day, etc. This perspective is based on progress and productivity; however, it does not enable a system perspective of how we produce. This paper uses a project production system perspective by which projects are a collection of production systems comprising the interconnected network of processes and operations that represent all the work activities to execute a project from start to finish. Furthermore, it also uses the 5 Levels of production system optimization as a frame. The goal of the paper is to describe the application of Project Production Control (PPC) to control and improve the performance of several production processes associated with the fabrication and assembly of a Central Processing Platform (CPP) Jacket, part of an offshore mega project. More specifically, the fabrication and assembly of buoyancy tanks as they were identified as part of the critical path and required the highest demand for capacity. In total, seven buoyancy tanks were built, with a total estimated weight of 2,200 metric tons. These huge buoyancy tanks were designed to be reversed launching and self-upending of the jacket, easily retractable, and reusable for the next project, ensuring sustainability. Results showed that an effective application of PPC not only positively impacted construction progress and productivity but also exposed sources of detrimental variability as the focus of continuous improvement practices. This approach augmented conventional project management practices, and the results had a high impact on construction scheduling, planning, and control.

Keywords: offshore, construction, project management, sustainability

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