Search results for: Equivalent circuit modelling

Authors: Chloé Kernaléguen, Laura Kundun, Tessie Lery, Ryan Laleg, Zhangyun Tan

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This study explores global disparities in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis incidence among children aged 0-2 years, focusing on the human development index (HDI) as a key determinant. RSV bronchiolitis poses a significant health risk to young children, influenced by factors, including socio-economic conditions captured by the HDI. Through a comprehensive systematic review and dataset selection (Switzerland, Brazil, United States of America), we formulated an HDI-SEIRS numerical model within the SEIRS framework. Results show variations in RSV bronchiolitis dynamics across countries, emphasizing the influence of HDI. Modelling reveals a correlation between higher HDI and increased bronchiolitis spread, notably in the USA and Switzerland. The ratios HDIcountry over HDImax strengthen this association, while climate disparities contribute to variations, especially in colder climates like the USA and Switzerland. The study raises the hypothesis of an indirect link between higher HDI and more frequent bronchiolitis, underlining the need for nuanced understanding. Factors like improved healthcare access, population density, mobility, and social behaviors in higher HDI countries might contribute to unexpected trends. Limitations include dataset quality and restricted RSV bronchiolitis data. Future research should encompass diverse HDI datasets to refine HDI's role in bronchiolitis dynamics. In conclusion, HDI-SEIRS models offer insights into factors influencing RSV bronchiolitis spread. While HDI is a significant indicator, its impact is indirect, necessitating a holistic approach to effective public health policies. This analysis sets the stage for further investigations into multifaceted interactions shaping bronchiolitis dynamics in diverse socio-economic contexts.

Keywords: bronchiolitis propagation, HDI influence, respiratory syncytial virus, SEIRS model

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Authors: Enes Gunaltili, Burak Dam

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The airplane history started with the Wright brothers' aircraft and improved day by day. With the help of this advancements, big aircrafts replace with small and unmanned air vehicles, so in this study we design this type of air vehicles. First of all, aircrafts mainly divided into two main parts in our day as a rotary and fixed wing aircrafts. The fixed wing aircraft generally use for transport, cargo, military and etc. The rotary wing aircrafts use for same area but there are some superiorities from each other. The rotary wing aircraft can take off vertically from the ground, and it can use restricted area. On the other hand, rotary wing aircrafts generally can fly lower range than fixed wing aircraft. There are one kind of aircraft consist of this two types specifications. It is named as VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) type aircraft. VTOLs are able to takeoff and land vertically and fly horizontally. The VTOL aircrafts generally can fly higher range from the rotary wings but can fly lower range from the fixed wing aircraft but it gives beneficial range between them. There are many other advantages of VTOL aircraft from the rotary and fixed wing aircraft. Because of that, VTOLs began to use for generally military, cargo, search, rescue and mapping areas. Within this framework, this study answers the question that how can we design VTOL as a small unmanned aircraft systems for search and rescue application for benefiting the advantages of fixed wing and rotary wing aircrafts by eliminating the disadvantages of them. To answer that question and design VTOL aircraft, multidisciplinary design optimizations (MDO), some theoretical terminologies, formulations, simulations and modelling systems based on CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) is used in same time as design methodology to determine design parameters and steps. As a conclusion, based on tests and simulations depend on design steps, suggestions on how the VTOL aircraft designed and advantages, disadvantages, and observations for design parameters are listed, then VTOL is designed and presented with the design parameters, advantages, and usage areas.

Keywords: airplane, rotary, fixed, VTOL, CFD

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Anukul K. Thakur, Ram Bilash Choudhary, Mandira Majumder

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In this technologically driven world, it is requisite to develop better, faster and smaller electronic devices for various applications to keep pace with fast developing modern life. In addition, it is also required to develop sustainable and clean sources of energy in this era where the environment is being threatened by pollution and its severe consequences. Supercapacitor has gained tremendous attention in the recent years because of its various attractive properties such as it is essentially maintenance-free, high specific power, high power density, excellent pulse charge/discharge characteristics, exhibiting a long cycle-life, require a very simple charging circuit and safe operation. Binary and ternary composites of conducting polymers with carbon and other layered transition metal dichalcogenides have shown tremendous progress in the last few decades. Compared with bulk conducting polymer, these days conducting polymers have gained more attention because of their high electrical conductivity, large surface area, short length for the ion transport and superior electrochemical activity. These properties make them very suitable for several energy storage applications. On the other hand, carbon materials have also been studied intensively, owing to its rich specific surface area, very light weight, excellent chemical-mechanical property and a wide range of the operating temperature. These have been extensively employed in the fabrication of carbon-based energy storage devices and also as an electrode material in supercapacitors. Incorporation of carbon materials into the polymers increases the electrical conductivity of the polymeric composite so formed due to high electrical conductivity, high surface area and interconnectivity of the carbon. Further, polymeric composites based on layered transition metal dichalcogenides such as molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) are also considered important because they are thin indirect band gap semiconductors with a band gap around 1.2 to 1.9eV. Amongst the various 2D materials, MoS2 has received much attention because of its unique structure consisting of a graphene-like hexagonal arrangement of Mo and S atoms stacked layer by layer to give S-Mo-S sandwiches with weak Van-der-Waal forces between them. It shows higher intrinsic fast ionic conductivity than oxides and higher theoretical capacitance than the graphite.

Keywords: supercapacitor, layered transition-metal dichalcogenide, conducting polymer, ternary, carbon

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Rui Li, Min Wen, Kim Bang Salling

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For the modern railways, maintenance is critical for ensuring safety, train punctuality and overall capacity utilization. The cost of railway maintenance in Europe is high, on average between 30,000 – 100,000 Euros per kilometer per year. In order to reduce such maintenance expenditures, this paper presents a mixed 0-1 linear mathematical model designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballast track in the planning horizon of three to four years. The objective function is to minimize the tamping machine actual costs. The approach of the research is using the simple dynamic model for modelling condition-based tamping process and the solution method for finding optimal condition-based tamping schedule. Seven technical and practical aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality recovery on the track quality after tamping operation; (5) Tamping machine operation practices (6) tamping budgets and (7) differentiating the open track from the station sections. A Danish railway track between Odense and Fredericia with 42.6 km of length is applied for a time period of three and four years in the proposed maintenance model. The generated tamping schedule is reasonable and robust. Based on the result from the Danish railway corridor, the total costs can be reduced significantly (50%) than the previous model which is based on optimizing the number of tamping. The different maintenance strategies have been discussed in the paper. The analysis from the results obtained from the model also shows a longer period of predictive tamping planning has more optimal scheduling of maintenance actions than continuous short term preventive maintenance, namely yearly condition-based planning.

Keywords: integer programming, railway tamping, predictive maintenance model, preventive condition-based maintenance

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Suresh Hettiarachchi, Conrad Wasko, Ashish Sharma

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The ever changing and expanding urban landscape increases the stress on urban systems to support and maintain safe and functional living spaces. Flooding presents one of the more serious threats to this safety, putting a larger number of people in harm’s way in congested urban settings. Climate change is adding to this stress by creating a dichotomy in the urban flood response. On the one hand, climate change is causing storms to intensify, resulting in more destructive, rarer floods, while on the other hand, longer dry periods are decreasing the severity of more frequent, less intense floods. This variability is creating a need to be more agile and innovative in how we design for and manage urban flooding. Here, we argue that to cope with this challenge climate change brings, we need to move towards urban flood management through resilience rather than flood prevention. We also argue that dealing with the larger variation in flood response to climate change means that we need to look at flooding from all aspects rather than the single-dimensional focus of flood depths and extents. In essence, we need to rethink how we manage flooding in the urban space. This change in our thought process and approach to flood management requires a practical way to assess and quantify resilience that is built into the urban landscape so that informed decision-making can support the required changes in planning and infrastructure design. Towards that end, we propose a Simple Urban Flood Resilience Index (SUFRI) based on a robust definition of resilience as a tool to assess flood resilience. The application of a simple resilience index such as the SUFRI can provide a practical tool that considers urban flood management in a multi-dimensional way and can present solutions that were not previously considered. When such an index is grounded on a clear and relevant definition of resilience, it can be a reliable and defensible way to assess and assist the process of adapting to the increasing challenges in urban flood management with climate change.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, climate change, flood management, flood modelling

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Authors: Tianqi Wu, Min Wang

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Research investigating language acquisition from a constructionist perspective has demonstrated that language is learned as constructions at various linguistic levels, which is related to factors of frequency, semantic prototypicality, and form-meaning contingency. However, previous research on construction learning tended to focus on clause-level constructions such as verb argument constructions but few attempts were made to study morpheme-level constructions such as the progressive construction, which is regarded as a source of acquisition problems for English learners from diverse L1 backgrounds, especially for those whose L1 do not have an equivalent construction such as German and Chinese. To trace the developmental trajectory of Chinese EFL learners’ use of the progressive with respect to verb frequency, verb-progressive contingency, and verbal prototypicality and generality, a learner corpus consisting of three sub-corpora representing three different English proficiency levels was extracted from the Chinese Learners of English Corpora (CLEC). As the reference point, a native speakers’ corpus extracted from the Louvain Corpus of Native English Essays was also established. All the texts were annotated with C7 tagset by part-of-speech tagging software. After annotation all valid progressive hits were retrieved with AntConc 3.4.3 followed by a manual check. Frequency-related data showed that from the lowest to the highest proficiency level, (1) the type token ratio increased steadily from 23.5% to 35.6%, getting closer to 36.4% in the native speakers’ corpus, indicating a wider use of verbs in the progressive; (2) the normalized entropy value rose from 0.776 to 0.876, working towards the target score of 0.886 in native speakers’ corpus, revealing that upper-intermediate learners exhibited a more even distribution and more productive use of verbs in the progressive; (3) activity verbs (i.e., verbs with prototypical progressive meanings like running and singing) dropped from 59% to 34% but non-prototypical verbs such as state verbs (e.g., being and living) and achievement verbs (e.g., dying and finishing) were increasingly used in the progressive. Apart from raw frequency analyses, collostructional analyses were conducted to quantify verb-progressive contingency and to determine what verbs were distinctively associated with the progressive construction. Results were in line with raw frequency findings, which showed that contingency between the progressive and non-prototypical verbs represented by light verbs (e.g., going, doing, making, and coming) increased as English proficiency proceeded. These findings altogether suggested that beginning Chinese EFL learners were less productive in using the progressive construction: they were constrained by a small set of verbs which had concrete and typical progressive meanings (e.g., the activity verbs). But with English proficiency increasing, their use of the progressive began to spread to marginal members such as the light verbs.

Keywords: Construction learning, Corpus-based, Progressives, Prototype

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Authors: Jubee Varghese, Pouria Hafiz

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Increased use of lightweight concrete in the construction industry is mainly due to its reduction in the weight of the structural elements, which in turn reduces the cost of production, transportation, and the overall project cost. However, the structural application of these lightweight concrete structures is limited due to its reduced density. Hence, further investigations are in progress to study the effect of fiber inclusion in improving the mechanical properties of lightweight concrete. Incorporating structural steel fibers, in general, enhances the performance of concrete and increases its durability by minimizing its potential to cracking and providing crack arresting mechanism. In this research, Geometric and Materially Non-linear Analysis (GMNA) was conducted for Finite Element Modelling using a software known as ABAQUS, to investigate the structural behavior of lightweight concrete with and without the addition of steel fibers and shear reinforcement. 21 finite element models of beams were created to study the effect of steel fibers based on three main parameters; fiber volume fraction (Vf = 0, 0.5 and 0.75%), shear span to depth ratio (a/d of 2, 3 and 4) and ratio of area of shear stirrups to spacing (As/s of 0.7, 1 and 1.6). The models created were validated with the previous experiment conducted by H.K. Kang et al. in 2011. It was seen that the lightweight fiber reinforcement can replace the use of fiber reinforced normal weight concrete as structural elements. The effect of an increase in steel fiber volume fraction is dominant for beams with higher shear span to depth ratio than for lower ratios. The effect of stirrups in the presence of fibers was very negligible; however; it provided extra confinement to the cracks by reducing the crack propagation and extra shear resistance than when compared to beams with no stirrups.

Keywords: ABAQUS, beams, fiber-reinforced concrete, finite element, light weight, shear span-depth ratio, steel fibers, steel-fiber volume fraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Rania S. Hussein

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Background: This study aims to determine the evolution of service provision by Egyptian travel sites and how these services change in terms of their level of sophistication over the period of the study which is ten years. To the author’s best knowledge, this is the first longitudinal study that focuses on an extended time frame of ten years. Additionally, the study attempts to determine the popularity of these websites through the number of links to these sites. Links maybe viewed as the equivalent of a referral or word of mouth but in an online context. Both popularity and the nature of the services provided by these websites are used to determine the traffic on these sites. In examining the nature of services provided, the website itself is viewed as an overall service offering that is composed of different travel products and services. Method: This study uses content analysis in the form of a small scale survey done on 30 Egyptian travel agents’ websites to examine whether Egyptian travel websites are static or dynamic in terms of the services that they provide and whether they provide simple or sophisticated travel services. To determine the level of sophistication of these travel sites, the nature and composition of products and services offered by these sites were first examined. A framework adapted from Kotler (1997) 'Five levels of a product' was used. The target group for this study consists of companies that do inbound tourism. Four rounds of data collection were conducted over a period of 10 years. Two rounds of data collection were made in 2004 and two rounds were made in 2014. Data from the travel agents’ sites were collected over a two weeks period in each of the four rounds. Besides collecting data on features of websites, data was also collected on the popularity of these websites through a software program called Alexa that showed the traffic rank and number of links of each site. Regression analysis was used to test the effect of links and services on websites as independent variables on traffic as the dependent variable of this study. Findings: Results indicate that as companies moved from having simple websites with basic travel information to being more interactive, the number of visitors illustrated by traffic and the popularity of those sites increase as shown by the number of links. Results also show that travel companies use the web much more for promotion rather than for distribution since most travel agents are using it basically for information provision. The results of this content analysis study taps on an unexplored area and provide useful insights for marketers on how they can generate more traffic to their websites by focusing on developing a distinctive content on these sites and also by focusing on the visibility of their sites thus enhancing the popularity or links to their sites.

Keywords: levels of a product, popularity, travel, website evolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Musa Akdere, Gunnar Seide, Thomas Gries

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Carbon fibres are fibrous materials with a carbon atom amount of more than 90%. They combine excellent mechanicals properties with a very low density. Thus carbon fibre reinforced plastics (CFRP) are very often used in lightweight design and construction. The precursor material is usually polyacrylonitrile (PAN) based and wet-spun. During the production of carbon fibre, the precursor has to be stabilized thermally to withstand the high temperatures of up to 1500 °C which occur during carbonization. Even though carbon fibre has been used since the late 1970s in aerospace application, there is still no general method available to find the optimal production parameters and the trial-and-error approach is most often the only resolution. To have a much better insight into the process the chemical reactions during stabilization have to be analyzed particularly. Therefore, a model of the chemical reactions (cyclization, dehydration, and oxidation) based on the research of Dunham and Edie has been developed. With the presented model, it is possible to perform a complete simulation of the fibre undergoing all zones of stabilization. The fiber bundle is modeled as several circular fibers with a layer of air in-between. Two thermal mechanisms are considered to be the most important: the exothermic reactions inside the fiber and the convective heat transfer between the fiber and the air. The exothermic reactions inside the fibers are modeled as a heat source. Differential scanning calorimetry measurements have been performed to estimate the amount of heat of the reactions. To shorten the required time of a simulation, the number of fibers is decreased by similitude theory. Experiments were conducted to validate the simulation results of the fibre temperature during stabilization. The experiments for the validation were conducted on a pilot scale stabilization oven. To measure the fibre bundle temperature, a new measuring method is developed. The comparison of the results shows that the developed simulation model gives good approximations for the temperature profile of the fibre bundle during the stabilization process.

Keywords: carbon fibre, coupled simulation, exothermic reactions, fibre-air-interface

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Utsav Bhardwaj, Shyama Prasad Das

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To meet the extensive requirements of thermal management of the circuit card assemblies (CCAs), satellites, PCBs, microprocessors, any other electronic circuitry, pulsating heat pipes (PHPs) have emerged in the recent past as one of the best solutions technically. But industrial application of PHPs is still unexplored up to a large extent due to their poor reliability. There are several systems as well as operational parameters which not only affect the performance of an operating PHP, but also decide whether the PHP can operate sustainably or not. Functioning may completely be halted for some particular combinations of the values of system and operational parameters. Among the system parameters, adiabatic length is one of the important ones. In the present work, a simplest single branch PHP system with an adiabatic section has been considered. It is assumed to have only one vapour bubble and one liquid plug. First, the system has been mathematically modeled using film evaporation/condensation model, followed by the steps of recognition of equilibrium zone, non-dimensionalization and linearization. Then proceeding with a periodical solution of the linearized and reduced differential equations, stability analysis has been performed. Slow and fast variables have been identified, and averaging approach has been used for the slow ones. Ultimately, temporal evolution of the PHP is predicted by numerically solving the averaged equations, to know whether the oscillations are likely to sustain/decay temporally. Stability threshold has also been determined in terms of some non-dimensional numbers formed by different groupings of system and operational parameters. A combined analytical and numerical approach has been used, and it has been found that for each combination of all other parameters, there exists a maximum length of the adiabatic section beyond which the PHP cannot function at all. This length has been called as “Critical Adiabatic Length (L_ac)”. For adiabatic lengths greater than “L_ac”, oscillations are found to be always decaying sooner or later. Dependence of “L_ac” on some other parameters has also been checked and correlated at certain evaporator & condenser section temperatures. “L_ac” has been found to be linearly increasing with increase in evaporator section length (L_e), whereas the condenser section length (L_c) has been found to have almost no effect on it upto a certain limit. But at considerably large condenser section lengths, “L_ac” is expected to decrease with increase in “L_c” due to increased wall friction. Rise in static pressure (p_r) exerted by the working fluid reservoir makes “L_ac” rise exponentially whereas it increases cubically with increase in the inner diameter (d) of PHP. Physics of all such variations has been given a good insight too. Thus, a methodology for quantification of the critical adiabatic length for any possible set of all other parameters of PHP has been established.

Keywords: critical adiabatic length, evaporation/condensation, pulsating heat pipe (PHP), thermal management

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Lujain Khraiba

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Recently, there is a broad recognition that micro-climate conditions contribute to the quality of life in urban spaces outdoors, both from economical and social viewpoints. The consideration of urban micro-climate and outdoor thermal comfort in urban design and planning processes has become one of the important aspects in current related studies. However, these aspects are so far not considered in urban planning regulations in practice and these regulations are often poorly adapted to the local climate and culture. Therefore, there is a huge need to adapt the existing planning regulations to the local climate especially in cities that have extremely hot weather conditions. The overall aim of this study is to point out the complexity of the relationship between urban planning regulations, urban design, micro-climate and outdoor thermal comfort in the hot dry city of Damascus, Syria. The main aim is to investigate the temporal and spatial effects of micro-climate on urban surface temperatures and outdoor thermal comfort in different urban design patterns as a result of urban planning regulations during the extreme summer conditions. In addition, studying different alternatives of how to mitigate the surface temperature and thermal stress is also a part of the aim. The novelty of this study is to highlight the combined effect of urban surface materials and vegetation to develop the thermal environment. This study is based on micro-climate simulations using ENVI-met 3.1. The input data is calibrated according to a micro-climate fieldwork that has been conducted in different urban zones in Damascus. Different urban forms and geometries including the old and the modern parts of Damascus are thermally evaluated. The Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index is used as an indicator for outdoor thermal comfort analysis. The study highlights the shortcomings of existing planning regulations in terms of solar protection especially at street levels. The results show that the surface temperatures in Old Damascus are lower than in the modern part. This is basically due to the difference in urban geometries that prevent the solar radiation in Old Damascus to reach the ground and heat up the surface whereas in modern Damascus, the streets are prescribed as wide spaces with high values of Sky View Factor (SVF is about 0.7). Moreover, the canyons in the old part are paved in cobblestones whereas the asphalt is the main material used in the streets of modern Damascus. Furthermore, Old Damascus is less stressful than the modern part (the difference in PET index is about 10 °C). The thermal situation is enhanced when different vegetation are considered (an improvement of 13 °C in the surface temperature is recorded in modern Damascus). The study recommends considering a detailed landscape code at street levels to be integrated in urban regulations of Damascus in order to achieve a better urban development in harmony with micro-climate and comfort. Such strategy will be very useful to decrease the urban warming in the city.

Keywords: micro-climate, outdoor thermal comfort, urban planning regulations, urban spaces

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: S. Mondal, L. M. Olsen-Kettle, L. Gross

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Fracture propagation and damage evolution are extremely important for many industrial applications including mining industry, composite materials, earthquake simulations, hydraulic fracturing. The influence of pre-existing flaws and rock heterogeneity on the processes and mechanisms of rock fracture has important ramifications in many mining and reservoir engineering applications. We simulate the damage evolution and fracture propagation in an isotropic sandstone specimen containing a pre-existing 3-D surface flaw in different configurations under uniaxial compression. We apply a damage model based on the unified strength theory and solve the solid deformation and damage evolution equations using the Finite Element Method (FEM) with tetrahedron elements on unstructured meshes through the simulation software, eScript. Unstructured meshes provide higher geometrical flexibility and allow a more accurate way to model the varying flaw depth, angle, and length through locally adapted FEM meshes. The heterogeneity of rock is considered by initializing material properties using a Weibull distribution sampled over a cubic grid. In our model, we introduce a length scale related to the rock heterogeneity which is independent of the mesh size. We investigate the effect of parameters including the heterogeneity of the elastic moduli and geometry of the single flaw in the stress strain response. The generation of three typical surface cracking patterns, called wing cracks, anti-wing cracks and far-field cracks were identified, and these depend on the geometry of the pre-existing surface flaw. This model results help to advance our understanding of fracture and damage growth in heterogeneous rock with the aim to develop fracture simulators for different industry applications.

Keywords: finite element method, heterogeneity, isotropic damage, uniaxial compression

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill

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Superstructures like offshore platforms, tall buildings, transition towers, skyscrapers and bridges are normally designed to resist compression, uplift and lateral forces from wind waves, negative skin friction, ship impact and other applied loads. Better understanding and the precise simulation of the response of batter piles under the action of independent uplift loads is a vital topic and an area of active research in the field of geotechnical engineering. This paper investigates the use of finite element code (FEC) to examine the behaviour of model batter piles penetrated in dense sand, subjected to pull-out pressure by means of numerical modelling. The concept of the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation) has been used in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and adjacent soil in the bearing zone is simulated by nonlinear p-y curves. The analysis was conducted on different pile slenderness ratios (lc⁄d) ranging from 7.5, 15.22 and 30 respectively. In addition, the optimum batter angle for a model steel pile penetrated in dense sand has been chosen to be 20° as this is the best angle for this simulation as demonstrated by other researcher published in literature. In this numerical analysis, the soil response is idealized as elasto-plastic and the model piles are described as elastic materials for the purpose of simulation. The results revealed that the applied loads affect the pullout pile capacity as well as the lateral pile response for dense sand together with varying shear strength parameters linked to the pile critical depth. Furthermore, the pile pull-out capacity increases with increasing the pile aspect ratios.

Keywords: slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), pull-out capacity

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Authors: Yunhui Sun, Qingquan Liu, Xiaoliang Wang

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Dense granular flows widely exist in geological flows such as debris flow, landslide, or sheet flow, where both the interparticle and solid-liquid interactions are important to modify the flow. So, a two-phase approach with both phases correctly modelled is important for a better investigation of the saturated granular flows. However, a proper closure model covering a wide range of flowing states for the solid phase is still lacking. This study first employs a chute flow experiment based on the refractive index matching method, which makes it possible to obtain internal flow information such as velocity, shear rate, granular fluctuation, and volume fraction. The granular stress is obtained based on a steady assumption. The kinetic theory is found to describe the stress dependence on the flow state well. More importantly, the granular rheology is found to be frictionally dominated under weak shear and collisionally dominated under strong shear. The results presented thus provide direct experimental evidence on a possible frictional-collisional closure model for the granular phase. The data indicates that both frictional stresses exist over a wide range of the volume fraction, though traditional theory believes it vanishes below a critical volume fraction. Based on the findings, a two-phase model is used to simulate the chute flow. Both phases are modelled as continuum media, and the inter-phase interactions, such as drag force and pressure gradient force, are considered. The frictional-collisional model is used for the closure of the solid phase stress. The profiles of the kinematic properties agree well with the experiments. This model is further used to simulate immersed granular collapse, which is unsteady in nature, to study the applicability of this model, which is derived from steady flow.

Keywords: closure model, collision, friction, granular flow, two-phase model

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Authors: Jikhil Joseph, Satish Kumar S R.

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Cold-formed steel frames are preferable for framed constructions due to its low seismic weights and results into low seismic forces, but on the contrary, significant lateral deflections are expected under seismic/wind loading. The various factors affecting the lateral stiffness of steel frames are the stiffness of connections, beams and columns. So, by increasing the stiffness of beam, column and making the connections rigid will enhance the lateral stiffness. The present study focused on Structural elements made of rectangular hollow sections and fastened with screwed in-plane moment connections for the building frames. The self-drilling screws can be easily drilled on either side of the connection area with the help of gusset plates. The strength of screwed connections can be made 1.2 times the connecting elements. However, achieving high stiffness in connections is also a challenging job. Hence in addition to beam and column stiffness’s the connection stiffness are also going to be a governing parameter in the lateral deflections of the frames. SAP 2000 Non-linear static analysis has been planned to study the seismic behavior of steel frames. The SAP model will be consisting of nonlinear spring model for the connection to account the semi-rigid connections and the nonlinear hinges will be assigned for beam and column sections according to FEMA 273 guidelines. The reliable spring and hinge parameters will be assigned based on an experimental and analytical database. The non-linear static analysis is mainly focused on the identification of various hinge formations and the estimation of lateral deflection and these will contribute as an inputs for the direct displacement-based Seismic design. The research output from this study are the modelling techniques and suitable design guidelines for the performance-based seismic design of cold-formed steel frames.

Keywords: buckling, cold formed steel, nonlinear static analysis, screwed connections

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Authors: Tamara Romero, Manuel Romero-Huelva, Jose V. Segarra, Jose Castro, Carlos Fernandez

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Many foods resulting from processing and manufacturing end up as waste, most of which is burned, dumped into landfills or used as compost, which leads to wasted resources, and environmental problems due to unsuitable disposal. Using residues of the crop and food processing industries to feed livestock has the advantage to obviating the need for costly waste management programs. The main residue generated in citrus cultivations and rice crop are pruning waste and rice straw, respectively. Within Spain, the Valencian Community is one of the world's oldest citrus and rice production areas. The objective of this experiment found out the effects of including orange leaves and rice straw as ingredients in the concentrate diets of goats, on milk production and methane (CH₄) emissions. Ten Murciano-Granadina dairy goats (45 kg of body weight, on average) in mid-lactation were selected in a crossover design experiment, where each goat received two treatments in 2 periods. Both groups were fed with 1.7 kg pelleted mixed ration; one group (n= 5) was a control (C) and the other group (n= 5) used orange leaves and rice straw (OR). The forage was alfalfa hay, and it was the same for the two groups (1 kg of alfalfa was offered by goat and day). The diets employed to achieve the requirements during lactation period for caprine livestock. The goats were allocated to individual metabolism cages. After 14 days of adaptation, feed intake and milk yield were recorded daily over a 5 days period. Physico-chemical parameters and somatic cell count in milk samples were determined. Then, gas exchange measurements were recorded individually by an open-circuit indirect calorimetry system using a head box. The data were analyzed by mixed model with diet and digestibility as fixed effect and goat as random effect. No differences were found for dry matter intake (2.23 kg/d, on average). Higher milk yield was found for C diet than OR (2.3 vs. 2.1 kg/goat and day, respectively) and, greater milk fat content was observed for OR than C (6.5 vs. 5.5%, respectively). The cheese extract was also greater in OR than C (10.7 vs. 9.6%). Goats fed OR diet produced significantly fewer CH₄ emissions than C diet (27 vs. 30 g/d, respectively). These preliminary results (LIFE Project LOWCARBON FEED LIFE/CCM/ES/000088) suggested that the use of these waste by-products was effective in reducing CH₄ emission without detrimental effect on milk yield.

Keywords: agricultural waste, goat, milk production, methane emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: F. Ghani, T. S. O’Donovan

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Today, the global solar thermal market is dominated by two collector types; the flat plate and evacuated tube collector. With regards to the number of installations worldwide, the evacuated tube collector is the dominant variant primarily due to the Chinese market but the flat plate collector dominates both the Australian and European markets. The market share of the evacuated tube collector is, however, growing in Australia due to a common belief that this collector type is ‘more efficient’ and, therefore, the better choice for hot water applications. In this study, we investigate this issue further to assess the validity of this statement. This was achieved by methodically comparing the performance and economics of several solar thermal systems comprising of; a low-performance flat plate collector, a high-performance flat collector, and an evacuated tube collector coupled with a storage tank and pump. All systems were simulated using the commercial software package Polysun for four climate zones in Australia to take into account different weather profiles in the study and subjected to a thermal load equivalent to a household comprising of four people. Our study revealed that the energy savings and payback periods varied significantly for systems operating under specific environmental conditions. Solar fractions ranged between 58 and 100 per cent, while payback periods range between 3.8 and 10.1 years. Although the evacuated tube collector was found to operate with a marginally higher thermal efficiency over the selective surface flat plate collector due to reduced ambient heat loss, the high-performance flat plate collector outperformed the evacuated tube collector on thermal yield. This result was obtained as the flat plate collector possesses a significantly higher absorber to gross collector area ratio over the evacuated tube collector. Furthermore, it was found for Australian regions operating with a high average solar radiation intensity and ambient temperature, the lower performance collector is the preferred choice due to favorable economics and reduced stagnation temperature. Our study has provided additional insight into the thermal performance and economics of the two prevalent solar thermal collectors currently available. A computational investigation has been carried out specifically for the Australian climate due to its geographic size and significant variation in weather. For domestic hot water applications were fluid temperatures between 50 and 60 degrees Celsius are sought, the flat plate collector is both technically and economically favorable over the evacuated tube collector. This research will be useful to system design engineers, solar thermal manufacturers, and those involved in policy to encourage the implementation of solar thermal systems into the hot water market.

Keywords: solar thermal, energy analysis, flat plate, evacuated tube, collector performance

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Authors: Guillaume Craveur

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This study shows the opportunity to use numerical tools dedicated to Fire Safety Engineering for the Rolling Stock. Indeed, some lawful requirements can now be demonstrated by using numerical tools. The first part of this study presents the use of modelling evacuation tool to satisfy the criteria of evacuation time for the rolling stock. The buildingEXODUS software is used to model and simulate the evacuation of rolling stock. Firstly, in order to demonstrate the reliability of this tool to calculate the complete evacuation time, a comparative study was achieved between a real test and simulations done with buildingEXODUS. Multiple simulations are performed to capture the stochastic variations in egress times. Then, a new study is done to calculate the complete evacuation time of a train with the same geometry but with a different interior architecture. The second part of this study shows some applications of Computational Fluid Dynamics. This work presents the approach of a multi scales validation of numerical simulations of standardized tests with Fire Dynamics Simulations software developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This work highlights in first the cone calorimeter test, described in the standard ISO 5660, in order to characterize the fire reaction of materials. The aim of this process is to readjust measurement results from the cone calorimeter test in order to create a data set usable at the seat scale. In the second step, the modelisation concerns the fire seat test described in the standard EN 45545-2. The data set obtained thanks to the validation of the cone calorimeter test was set up in the fire seat test. To conclude with the third step, after controlled the data obtained for the seat from the cone calorimeter test, a larger scale simulation with a real part of train is achieved.

Keywords: fire safety engineering, numerical tools, rolling stock, multi-scales validation

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Authors: Keith T. S. Tung, Frederick K. Ho, Rosa S. Wong, Camilla K. M. Lo, Wilfred H. S. Wong, C. B. Chow, Patrick Ip

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Objectives: Underage drinking is an important public health problem both locally and globally. Conventional prevention/intervention relies on unidirectional knowledge transfer such as mail leaflets or health talks which showed mixed results in changing the target behaviour. Previously, we conducted a school internet-based intervention which was found to be effective in reducing alcohol use among adolescents, yet the underlying mechanisms have not been properly investigated. This study, therefore, examined the mechanisms that explain how the intervention produced a change in alcohol drinking behaviours among Chinese adolescent as observed in our previous clustered randomised controlled trial (RCT) study. Methods: This is a cluster randomised controlled trial with parallel group design. Participating schools were randomised to the Internet intervention or the conventional health education group (control) with a 1:1 allocation ratio. Secondary 1–3 students of the participating schools were enrolled in this study. The Internet intervention was a web-based quiz game competition, in which participating students would answer 1,000 alcohol-related multiple-choice quiz questions. Conventional health education group received a promotional package on equivalent alcohol-related knowledge. The participants’ alcohol-related attitude, knowledge, and perceived behavioural control were self-reported before the intervention (baseline) and one month and three months after the intervention. Results: Our RCT results showed that participants in the Internet group were less likely to drink (risk ratio [RR] 0.79, p < 0.01) as well as in lesser amount (β -0.06, p < 0.05) compared to those in the control group at both post-intervention follow-ups. Within the intervention group, regression analyses showed that high quiz scorer had greater improvement in alcohol-related knowledge (β 0.28, p < 0.01) and attitude (β -0.26, p < 0.01) at 1 month after intervention, which in turn increased their perceived behavioural control against alcohol use (β 0.10 and -0.26, both p < 0.01). Attitude, compared to knowledge, was found to be a stronger contributor to the intervention effect on perceived behavioural control. Conclusions: Our internet-based intervention has demonstrated effectiveness in reducing the risk of underage drinking when compared with conventional health education. Our study results further showed an attitude to be a more important factor than knowledge in changing health-related behaviour. This has an important implication for future prevention/intervention on an underage drinking problem.

Keywords: adolescents, internet-based intervention, randomized controlled trial, underage drinking

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Authors: Sara R. Knigge, Sugat R. Tuladhar, Hans-Klaus HöFfler, Tobias Schilling, Tim Kaufeld, Axel Haverich

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Tissue engineered (TE) heart valves based on degradable electrospun fiber scaffold represent a promising approach to overcome the known limitations of mechanical or biological prostheses. But the mechanical stress in the high-pressure system of the human circulation is a severe challenge for the delicate materials. Hence, the prediction of the scaffolds` in vivo degradation kinetics must be as accurate as possible to prevent fatal events in future animal or even clinical trials. Therefore, this study investigates whether long-term testing in full blood provides more meaningful results regarding the degradation behavior than conventional tests in simulated body fluids (SBF) or Phosphate Buffered Saline (PBS). Fiber mats were produced from a polycaprolactone (PCL)/tetrafluoroethylene solution by electrospinning. The morphology of the fiber mats was characterized via scanning electron microscopy (SEM). A maximum physiological degradation environment utilizing a test set-up with porcine full blood was established. The set-up consists of a reaction vessel, an oxygenator unit, and a roller pump. The blood parameters (pO2, pCO2, temperature, and pH) were monitored with an online test system. All tests were also carried out in the test circuit with SBF and PBS to compare conventional degradation media with the novel full blood setting. The polymer's degradation is quantified by SEM picture analysis, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and Raman spectroscopy. Tensile and cyclic loading tests were performed to evaluate the mechanical integrity of the scaffold. Preliminary results indicate that PCL degraded slower in full blood than in SBF and PBS. The uptake of water is more pronounced in the full blood group. Also, PCL preserved its mechanical integrity longer when degraded in full blood. Protein absorption increased during the degradation process. Red blood cells, platelets, and their aggregates adhered on the PCL. Presumably, the degradation led to a more hydrophilic polymeric surface which promoted the protein adsorption and the blood cell adhesion. Testing degradable implants in full blood allows for developing more reliable scaffold materials in the future. Material tests in small and large animal trials thereby can be focused on testing candidates that have proven to function well in an in-vivo-like setting.

Keywords: Electrospun scaffold, full blood degradation test, long-term polymer degradation, tissue engineered aortic heart valve

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Authors: Wang Yang

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Shenzhen is a modern city of China's reform and opening-up policy, the development of urban morphology has been established on the administration of the Chinese government. This city`s planning paradigm is primarily affected by the spatial structure and human behavior. The subjective urban agglomeration center is divided into several groups and centers. In comparisons of this effect, the city development law has better to be neglected. With the continuous development of the internet, extensive data technology has been introduced in China. Data mining and data analysis has become important tools in municipal research. Data mining has been utilized to improve data cleaning such as receiving business data, traffic data and population data. Prior to data mining, government data were collected by traditional means, then were analyzed using city-relationship research, delaying the timeliness of urban development, especially for the contemporary city. Data update speed is very fast and based on the Internet. The city's point of interest (POI) in the excavation serves as data source affecting the city design, while satellite remote sensing is used as a reference object, city analysis is conducted in both directions, the administrative paradigm of government is broken and urban research is restored. Therefore, the use of data mining in urban analysis is very important. The satellite remote sensing data of the Shenzhen city in July 2018 were measured by the satellite Modis sensor and can be utilized to perform land surface temperature inversion, and analyze city heat island distribution of Shenzhen. This article acquired and classified the data from Shenzhen by using Data crawler technology. Data of Shenzhen heat island and interest points were simulated and analyzed in the GIS platform to discover the main features of functional equivalent distribution influence. Shenzhen is located in the east-west area of China. The city’s main streets are also determined according to the direction of city development. Therefore, it is determined that the functional area of the city is also distributed in the east-west direction. The urban heat island can express the heat map according to the functional urban area. Regional POI has correspondence. The research result clearly explains that the distribution of the urban heat island and the distribution of urban POIs are one-to-one correspondence. Urban heat island is primarily influenced by the properties of the underlying surface, avoiding the impact of urban climate. Using urban POIs as analysis object, the distribution of municipal POIs and population aggregation are closely connected, so that the distribution of the population corresponded with the distribution of the urban heat island.

Keywords: POI, satellite remote sensing, the population distribution, urban heat island thermal map

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Authors: Mahbod Seyednia, Shidvash Vakilipour, Mehran Masdari

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Computations for two-dimensional flow past a stationary and harmonically pitching wind turbine airfoil at a moderate value of Reynolds number (400000) are carried out by progressively increasing the angle of attack for stationary airfoil and at fixed pitching frequencies for rotary one. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in conjunction with Unsteady Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations for turbulence modeling are solved by OpenFOAM package to investigate the aerodynamic phenomena occurred at stationary and pitching conditions on a NACA 6-series wind turbine airfoil. The aim of this study is to enhance the accuracy of numerical simulation in predicting the aerodynamic behavior of an oscillating airfoil in OpenFOAM. Hence, for turbulence modelling, k-ω-SST with low-Reynolds correction is employed to capture the unsteady phenomena occurred in stationary and oscillating motion of the airfoil. Using aerodynamic and pressure coefficients along with flow patterns, the unsteady aerodynamics at pre-, near-, and post-static stall regions are analyzed in harmonically pitching airfoil, and the results are validated with the corresponding experimental data possessed by the authors. The results indicate that implementing the mentioned turbulence model leads to accurate prediction of the angle of static stall for stationary airfoil and flow separation, dynamic stall phenomenon, and reattachment of the flow on the surface of airfoil for pitching one. Due to the geometry of the studied 6-series airfoil, the vortex on the upper surface of the airfoil during upstrokes is formed at the trailing edge. Therefore, the pattern flow obtained by our numerical simulations represents the formation and change of the trailing-edge vortex at near- and post-stall regions where this process determines the dynamic stall phenomenon.

Keywords: CFD, moderate Reynolds number, OpenFOAM, pitching oscillation, unsteady aerodynamics, wind turbine

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Authors: Fereydoon Bondarian, Samira Shaygan

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Today, many nutritionists recommend the consumption of plants, fruits, and vegetables to provide the antioxidants needed by the body because the use of plant antioxidants usually causes fewer side effects and better treatment. Natural antioxidants increase the power of plasma antioxidants and reduce the incidence of some diseases, such as cancer. Bad lifestyles and environmental factors play an important role in increasing the incidence of cancer. In this study, different extracts of white teas taken from two types of tea available in Iran (clone 100 and Chinese hybrid) due to the presence of a hydroxyl functional group in their structure to inhibit free radicals and anticancer properties, using 3 aqueous, methanolic and aqueous-methanolic methods were used. The total polyphenolic content was calculated using the Folin-Ciocalcu method, and the percentage of inhibition and trapping of free radicals in each of the extracts was calculated using the DPPH method. With the help of high-performance liquid chromatography, a small amount of each catechin in the tea samples was obtained. Clone 100 white tea was found to be the best sample of tea in terms of all the examined attributes (total polyphenol content, antioxidant properties, and individual amount of each catechin). The results showed that aqueous and aqueous-methanolic extracts of Clone 100 white tea have the highest total polyphenol content with 27.59±0.08 and 36.67±0.54 (equivalent gallic acid per gram dry weight of leaves), respectively. Due to having the highest level of different groups of catechin compounds, these extracts have the highest property of inhibiting and trapping free radicals with 66.61±0.27 and 71.74±0.27% (mg/l) of the extracted sample against ascorbic acid). Using the MTT test, the inhibitory effect of clone 100 white tea extract in inhibiting the growth of HCT-116 colon cancer cells was investigated and the best time and concentration treatments were 500, 150 and 1000 micrograms in 8, 16 and 24 hours, respectively. To investigate gene expression changes, selected genes, including tumorigenic genes, proto-oncogenes, tumor suppressors, and genes involved in apoptosis, were selected and analyzed using the real-time PCR method and in the presence of concentrations obtained for white tea. White tea extract at a concentration of 1000 μg/ml 3 times 16, 8, and 24 hours showed the highest growth inhibition in cancer cells with 53.27, 55.8, and 86.06%. The concentration of 1000 μg/ml aqueous extract of white tea under 24-hour treatment increased the expression of tumor suppressor genes compared to the normal sample.

Keywords: catechin, gene expression, suppressor genes, colon cell line

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Authors: Danica Maljkovic, Igor Balen, Bojana Dalbelo Basic

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Following the regulation of EU Directive on Energy Efficiency, specifically Article 9, individual metering in district heating systems has to be introduced by the end of 2016. These directions have been implemented in member state’s legal framework, Croatia is one of these states. The directive allows installation of both heat metering devices and heat cost allocators. Mainly due to bad communication and PR, the general public false image was created that the heat cost allocators are devices that save energy. Although this notion is wrong, the aim of this work is to develop a model that would precisely express the influence of installation heat cost allocators on potential energy savings in each unit within multifamily buildings. At the same time, in recent years, a science of machine learning has gain larger application in various fields, as it is proven to give good results in cases where large amounts of data are to be processed with an aim to recognize a pattern and correlation of each of the relevant parameter as well as in the cases where the problem is too complex for a human intelligence to solve. A special method of machine learning, decision tree method, has proven an accuracy of over 92% in prediction general building consumption. In this paper, a machine learning algorithms will be used to isolate the sole impact of installation of heat cost allocators on a single building in multifamily houses connected to district heating systems. Special emphasises will be given regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method.

Keywords: district heating, heat cost allocator, energy efficiency, machine learning, decision tree model, regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method

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Authors: Sanjeeb Kumar Mishra, Aartee Jha, Madhu Thapa, Pragati Gautam

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Introduction: High myopia has become a matter of global concern as it is a major risk factor for glaucoma. Various optic nerve head changes occur in high myopia over time. This might lead to difficulty in detecting pathologies associated with high myopia through conventional funduscopy examinations only. Bruch’s Membrane Opening (Area and Minimum Rim Width) is considered an anatomically more accurate and reliable landmark than the conventional clinical disc margin. Study Design: It was a hospital based cross-sectional and non-interventional type of study. Purpose: The purpose of our study was to measure Bruch’s Membrane Opening (area and Minimum Rim Width) in high myopic eyes and correlate it with axial length. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at B.P Koirala Lions Center for Ophthalmic Studies, a tertiary-level eye center in Nepal. 80 eyes of 40 subjects (40% male and 60% female) aged 18-35 years with high myopia (Spherical Equivalent (SE) ≥ -6D) were taken as cases. Among them, RE of 39 and LE of 34 myopic subjects were included in the study. Spectral Domain-Optical Coherence Tomography of both the eyes of myopic patients was performed using Glaucoma Module Premiere Edition (GMPE) with Anatomic Positioning System (APS) to measure Bruch’s Membrane Opening (Area and Minimum Rim Width). Axial length in myopic patients was measured using Partial Coherence Interferometry (IOL Master). Results: Among 40 myopic subjects, 16 (40%) were males, whereas 24 (60%) were females. The mean age of myopic subjects was 24.64 ± 5.10 years, with minimum and maximum ages of 18 years and 35 years, respectively. The mean BMO area was 2.28 0.48 mm² in right eye and 2.15 0.59 mm² in left eye. BMO area in high myopic patient was significantly correlated with axial length. The correlation analysis of BMO area with axial length in RE and LE was found to be statistically significant at (r=0.465, p<0.003) and (r=0.374, p< 0.029), respectively. Likewise, the mean BMO-MRW was 325.69 ± 96µm in right eye and 339.20 ± 79.50µm in left eye. There was a significant correlation of BMO-MRW with axial length in both the eyes of myopic subjects. Moreover, a significant negative correlation of Inferior temporal, Nasal, and Inferior nasal quadrants (p<0.05) of BMO-MRW of right eye was found with axial length of right eye, whereas all the BMO-MRW quadrants of left eye were negatively correlated (p<0.05) with axial length in left eye. No significant differences were found between right eye and left eye on comparing means of refractive error, axial length, BMO area, and BMO-MRW. Conclusion: From this study, it can be concluded that BMO area enlarges in high myopia with an increase in axial length. Additionally, BMO-MRW thinning occurs along with the BMO enlargement and increases with axial length. There were no significant differences in refractive error, axial length, BMO area, and BMO-MRW between right eye and left eye.

Keywords: high myopia, Bruch’s membrane opening, Bruch’s membrane opening minimum rim width, spectral domain optical coherence tomography

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Authors: Di Yao, Gunther Prokop, Kay Buttner

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Dynamic parameters, including the center of gravity, mass and inertia moments of vehicle, play an essential role in vehicle simulation, collision test and real-time control of vehicle active systems. To identify the important vehicle dynamic parameters, a systematic parameter identification procedure is studied in this work. In the first step of the procedure, a conceptual parallel manipulator (virtual test rig), which possesses three rotational degrees-of-freedom, is firstly proposed. To realize kinematic characteristics of the conceptual parallel manipulator, the kinematic analysis consists of inverse kinematic and singularity architecture is carried out. Based on the Euler's rotation equations for rigid body dynamics, the dynamic model of parallel manipulator and derivation of measurement matrix for parameter identification are presented subsequently. In order to reduce the sensitivity of parameter identification to measurement noise and other unexpected disturbances, a parameter optimization process of searching for optimal exciting trajectory of parallel manipulator is conducted in the following section. For this purpose, the 321-Euler-angles defined by parameterized finite-Fourier-series are primarily used to describe the general exciting trajectory of parallel manipulator. To minimize the condition number of measurement matrix for achieving better parameter identification accuracy, the unknown coefficients of parameterized finite-Fourier-series are estimated by employing an iterative algorithm based on MATLAB®. Meanwhile, the iterative algorithm will ensure the parallel manipulator still keeps in an achievable working status during the execution of optimal exciting trajectory. It is showed that the proposed procedure and methods in this work can effectively identify the vehicle dynamic parameters and could be an important application of parallel manipulator in the fields of parameter identification and test rig development.

Keywords: parameter identification, parallel manipulator, singularity architecture, dynamic modelling, exciting trajectory

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Authors: Briony Gray, Glenn Simpson, Hajira Dambha-Miller, Andrew Farmer

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Multimorbidity may be strongly affected by a variety of conditions, factors, and variables requiring higher demands on health and social care services, infrastructure, and expenses. Holding one or more conditions increases one’s risk for development of future conditions; with patients over 65 years old at highest risk. Psychosocial factors such as anxiety and depression are rising exponentially globally, which has been amplified by the COVID19 pandemic. These are highly correlated and predict poorer outcomes when held in coexistence and increase the likelihood of comorbid physical health conditions. While possible future reform of social and healthcare systems may help to alleviate some of these mounting pressures, there remains an urgent need to better understand the potential role health behaviours and psychosocial conditions - such as anxiety and depression – may have on aging populations. Using the UK healthcare scene as a lens for analysis, this study uses big data collected in the UK Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) to examine the role of anxiety and depression in ageing populations (65yrs+). Using logistic regression modelling, results identify the 10 most significant variables correlated with both anxiety and depression from data categorised into the areas of health behaviour, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and life satisfaction (each demonstrated through literature review to be of significance). These are compared with wider global research findings with the aim of better understanding the areas in which social and healthcare reform can support multimorbidity interventions, making suggestions for improved patient-centred care. Scope of future research is outlined, which includes analysis of 59 total multimorbidity variables from the ELSA dataset, going beyond anxiety and depression.

Keywords: multimorbidity, health behaviours, patient centred care, psychosocial factors

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Authors: Joseph Lillington, Tom Gout, Mike Harrison, Ian Farnan

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The vitrification of high-level nuclear waste within borosilicate glass and its incorporation within a multi-barrier repository deep underground is widely accepted as the preferred disposal method. However, for this to happen, any safety case will require validation that the initially localized radionuclides will not be considerably released into the near/far-field. Therefore, accurate mechanistic models are necessary to predict glass dissolution, and these should be robust to a variety of incorporated waste species and leaching test conditions, particularly given substantial variations across international waste-streams. Here, machine learning is used to predict glass material properties (viscosity, density) and glass leaching model parameters from large-scale industrial data. A variety of different machine learning algorithms have been compared to assess performance. Density was predicted solely from composition, whereas viscosity additionally considered temperature. To predict suitable glass leaching model parameters, a large simulated dataset was created by coupling MATLAB and the chemical reactive-transport code HYTEC, considering the state-of-the-art GRAAL model (glass reactivity in allowance of the alteration layer). The trained models were then subsequently applied to the large-scale industrial, experimental data to identify potentially appropriate model parameters. Results indicate that ensemble methods can accurately predict viscosity as a function of temperature and composition across all three industrial datasets. Glass density prediction shows reliable learning performance with predictions primarily being within the experimental uncertainty of the test data. Furthermore, machine learning can predict glass dissolution model parameters behavior, demonstrating potential value in GRAAL model development and in assessing suitable model parameters for large-scale industrial glass dissolution data.

Keywords: machine learning, predictive modelling, pattern recognition, radioactive waste glass

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Authors: Laura Mion

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Concepts of quality assurance and management are now part of the organizational culture of the Universities. Quality Assurance (QA) systems are, in large part, provided for by national regulatory dictates or supranational indications (such as, for example, at European level are, the ESG Guidelines "European Standard Guidelines"), but their specific definition, in terms of guiding principles, requirements and methodologies, are often delegated to the national evaluation agencies or to the autonomy of individual universities. For this reason, the experiences of implementation of QA systems in different countries and in different universities is an interesting source of information to understand how quality in universities is understood, pursued and verified. The literature often deals with the treatment of the experiences of implementation of QA systems in the individual areas in which the University's activity is carried out - teaching, research, third mission - but only rarely considers quality systems with a systemic and integrated approach, which allows to correlate subjects, actions, and performance in a virtuous circuit of continuous improvement. In particular, it is interesting to understand how to relate the results and uses of the QA in the triple distinction of university activities, identifying how one can cause the performance of the other as a function of an integrated whole and not as an exploit of specific activities or processes conceived in an abstractly atomistic way. The aim of the research is, therefore, to investigate which experiences of "integrated" QA systems are present on the international scene: starting from the experience of European countries that have long shared the Bologna Process for the creation of a European space for Higher Education (EHEA), but also considering experiences from emerging countries that use QA processes to develop their higher education systems to keep them up to date with international levels. The concept of "integration", in this research, is understood in a double meaning: i) between the different areas of activity, in particular between the didactic and research areas, and possibly with the so-called "third mission" "ii) the functional integration between those involved in quality assessment and management and the governance of the University. The paper will present the results of a systematic review conducted according with a method of an integrative review aimed at identifying best practices of quality assurance systems, in individual countries or individual universities, with a high level of integration. The analysis of the material thus obtained has made it possible to grasp common and transversal elements of QA system integration practices or particularly interesting elements and strengths of these experiences that can, therefore, be considered as winning aspects in a QA practice. The paper will present the method of analysis carried out, and the characteristics of the experiences identified, of which the structural elements will be highlighted (level of integration, areas considered, organizational levels included, etc.) and the elements for which these experiences can be considered as best practices.

Keywords: quality assurance, university, integration, country

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Authors: H. Dakhlaoui, D. Ruelland, Y. Tramblay, Z. Bargaoui

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To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that are able to be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. This study aims at assessing the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in Northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability. Their robustness was evaluated according to a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period regarding simultaneously precipitation and temperature conditions. The studied catchments are situated in a region where climate change is likely to have significant impacts on runoff and they already suffer from scarcity of water resources. They cover the main hydrographical basins of Northern Tunisia (High Medjerda, Zouaraâ, Ichkeul and Cap bon), which produce the majority of surface water resources in Tunisia. The streamflow regime of the basins can be considered as natural since these basins are located upstream from storage-dams and in areas where withdrawals are negligible. A 30-year common period (1970‒2000) was considered to capture a large spread of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while the evaluation of model transferability is performed according to the Nash-Suttfliff efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to have similar behaviour under climate variability. Models prove a better ability to simulate the runoff pattern when transferred toward wetter periods compared to the case when transferred to drier periods. The limits of transferability are beyond -20% of precipitation and +1.5 °C of temperature in comparison with the calibration period. The deterioration of model robustness could in part be explained by the climate dependency of some parameters.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff modelling, hydro-climate variability, model robustness, uncertainty, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 292