Search results for: resilience optimization model

Authors: Felipe Henao, Yeny Rodriguez, Juan P. Viteri, Isaac Dyner

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Colombia is rich in natural resources and greatly focuses on the exploitation of water for hydroelectricity purposes. Alternative cleaner energy sources, such as solar and wind power, have been largely neglected despite: a) its abundance, b) the complementarities between hydro, solar and wind power, and c) the cost competitiveness of renewable technologies. The current limited mix of energy sources creates considerable weaknesses for the system, particularly when facing extreme dry weather conditions, such as El Niño event. In the past, El Niño have exposed the truly consequences of a system heavily dependent on hydropower, i.e. loss of power supply, high energy production costs, and loss of overall competitiveness for the country. Nonetheless, it is expected that the participation of hydroelectricity will increase in the near future. In this context, this paper proposes a stochastic lineal programming model to optimize the insertion of renewable energy systems (RES) into the Colombian electricity sector. The model considers cost-based generation competition between traditional energy technologies and alternative RES. This work evaluates the financial, environmental, and technical implications of different combinations of technologies. Various scenarios regarding the future evolution of costs of the technologies are considered to conduct sensitivity analysis of the solutions – to assess the extent of the participation of the RES in the Colombian power sector. Optimization results indicate that, even in the worst case scenario, where costs remain constant, the Colombian power sector should diversify its portfolio of technologies and invest strongly in solar and wind power technologies. The diversification through RES will contribute to make the system less vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, reduce the overall system costs, cut CO2 emissions, and decrease the chances of having national blackout events in the future. In contrast, the business as usual scenario indicates that the system will turn more costly and less reliable.

Keywords: energy policy and planning, stochastic programming, sustainable development, water management

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Authors: Rania M. Abdallah, Ahmed A. S. Dessouki, Moustafa H. Aly

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This paper has presented a new simple small signal model for a resonant tunnelling diode device. The resonant tunnelling diode equivalent circuit elements were calculated and the results led to good agreement between the calculated equivalent circuit elements and the measurement results.

Keywords: resonant tunnelling diode, small signal model, negative differential conductance, electronic engineering

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Authors: Ting Ye, Nhan Phan-Thien, Chwee Teck Lim, Lina Peng, Huixin Shi

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In biofluid flow systems, often the flow problems of fluids of complex structures, such as the flow of red blood cells (RBCs) through complex capillary vessels, need to be considered. In this paper, we aim to apply a particle-based method, Smoothed Dissipative Particle Dynamics (SDPD), to simulate the motion and deformation of RBCs in complex micro-tubes. We first present the theoretical models, including SDPD model, RBC-fluid interaction model, RBC deformation model, RBC aggregation model, and boundary treatment model. After that, we show the verification and validation of these models, by comparing our numerical results with the theoretical, experimental and previously-published numerical results. Finally, we provide some simulation cases, such as the motion and deformation of RBCs in rectangular, cylinder, curved, bifurcated, and constricted micro-tubes, respectively.

Keywords: aggregation, deformation, red blood cell, smoothed dissipative particle dynamics

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Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Ching-Hsiang Chen, Wei-Ting Hsu

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The purposes of the study were to explore the students' learning effect of physical education curriculum between merging Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility (TPSR) with sport education model and TPSR with traditional teaching model, which these learning effects included sport self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, group cohesion, responsibility and game performance. The participants include 3 high school physical education teachers and 6 physical education classes, 133 participants with experience group 75 students and control group 58 students, and each teacher taught an experimental group and a control group for 16 weeks. The research methods used questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments included personal and social responsibility questionnaire, sport enthusiastic scale, group cohesion scale, sport self-efficacy scale and game performance assessment instrument. Multivariate Analysis of covariance and Repeated measure ANOVA were used to test difference of students' learning effects between merging TPSR with sport education model and TPSR with traditional teaching model. The findings of research were: 1) The sport education model with TPSR could improve students' learning effects, including sport self-efficacy, game performance, sport enthusiastic, group cohesion and responsibility. 2) The traditional teaching model with TPSR could improve students' learning effect, including sport self-efficacy, responsibility and game performance. 3) the sport education model with TPSR could improve more learning effects than traditional teaching model with TPSR, including sport self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic,responsibility and game performance. 4) Based on qualitative data about learning experience of teachers and students, sport education model with TPSR significant improve learning motivation, group interaction and game sense. The conclusions indicated sport education model with TPSR could improve more learning effects in physical education curriculum. On other hand, the curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model and TPSR-Traditional Teaching model are both good curricular projects of moral character education, which may be applied in school physical education.

Keywords: character education, sport season, game performance, sport competence

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Authors: E. Al Daoud

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In many cases, theoretical treatments are available for models for which there is no perfect physical realization. In this situation, the only possible test for an approximate theoretical solution is to compare with data generated from a computer simulation. In this paper, Monte Carlo tools are used to study and compare the elementary particles models. All the experiments are implemented using 10000 events, and the simulated energy is 13 TeV. The mean and the curves of several variables are calculated for each model using MadAnalysis 5. Anomalies in the results can be seen in the muons masses of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the two Higgs doublet model.

Keywords: Feynman rules, hadrons, Lagrangian, Monte Carlo, simulation

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Authors: Ramin Mansouri

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The manhole is one of the types of structures that are installed at the site of change direction or change in the pipe diameter or sewage pipes as well as in step slope areas to reduce the flow velocity. In this study, the flow characteristics of hydraulic structures in a manhole structure have been investigated with a numerical model. In this research, the types of computational grid coarse, medium, and fines have been used for simulation. In order to simulate flow, k-ε model (standard, RNG, Realizable) and k-w model (standard SST) are used. Also, in order to find the best wall conditions, two types of standard and non-equilibrium wall functions were investigated. The turbulent model k-ε has the highest correlation with experimental results or all models. In terms of boundary conditions, constant speed is set for the flow input boundary, the output pressure is set in the boundaries which are in contact with the air, and the standard wall function is used for the effect of the wall function. In the numerical model, the depth at the output of the second manhole is estimated to be less than that of the laboratory and the output jet from the span. In the second regime, the jet flow collides with the manhole wall and divides into two parts, so hydraulic characteristics are the same as large vertical shaft hydraulic characteristics. In this situation, the turbulence is in a high range since it can be seen more energy loss in it. According to the results, energy loss in numerical is estimated at 9.359%, which is more than experimental data.

Keywords: manhole, energy, depreciation, turbulence model, wall function, flow

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Authors: Monica Sanchez

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What responsibility does urban planning have on climate changes? How does the territory give us answers of resilience? Historically, urban plans have civilized territories: waters are channeled, grounds are sealed, foreign species are incorporated, native ones are extinguished, and/or enclosed spaces are heated or cooled. Socially this facilitates coexistence, but in turn brings negative environmental consequences. The past fifty years, mankind has tried to redirect these consequences through different strategies. Research studies produced strategies designed to alleviate climate change. Exploring the nature of territories has been incorporated in urban planning to discover natures response. The case to be studied is Santiago, Chile: for its combined impacts of climate change and the significant response by this city on climate governance in the last decades. Warmer areas in Santiago are seen in the areas of high-density buildings such as the commune of Recoleta, while the coldest are characterized by the predominance of low residential densities as the commune of Providencia. These two communes are separated and complemented by an undulating body that comes from the Andes mountains called San Cristobal Hill. What if the hill were taken into account when making roads, zoning and buildings? Was it difficult to prolong in the urban plans the hill characteristics to the city solving the intersection with other natural areas? Apparently it was, because the projected-profile informs us that the planned strategies used correspond to the same operations used in the flat areas of Santiago. This research focuses on: explaining the geographic relationships between city-hill; explaining the planning process around the hill with a morphological analysis; evaluating how the hill has been considered the in the city in the plans that intended to cushion the environmental impacts and studying what is missing on the hill and city to strengthen their integration. Therefore, the research will have different scales of understanding: addressing territorial scale -understanding the vegetation, topography and hydrology; a city scale -analyzing urban plans that Santiago has dealt with the environment and city; and a local scale -studying the integration and public spaces and coverage- norms of the adjacent communes. The expected outcome is to decipher possible deficits and capabilities of the current urban plans for climate change. It is anticipated that the hill and valley is now trying to reconcile after such a long separation. Yet it seems that never will prevail all the Rules of Nature, but the Urban Rules. The plans will require pruning, irrigation, control of invasive alien species and public safety standards, but will be rejoining a dose of nature with the building environment -this will protect us better from it from the time that we feared from it and knew little about it. Today we know a little more, enough to adapt to the process. Although nature is not perceived and we ignore it, it has a remarkable ability to respond.

Keywords: resilience, climate change, urban plans, land use, hills and cities, heat islands, morphology

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Shojaei, Mahdeih Mirzaeinia

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We have studied the cluster structure of even-even stable isotopes of Ge and Sr. The Schrodinger equation has been solved using the generalized parametric Nikiforov-Uvarov method with a phenomenological potential. This potential is the sum of the attractive Yukawa-like potential, a Manning-Rosen-type potential, and the repulsive Yukawa potential for interaction between the cluster and the core. We have shown that the available experimental data of the first rotational band energies can be well described by assuming a binary system of the α cluster and the core and using an analytical solution. Our results were consistent with experimental values. Hence, this model can be applied to study the other even-even isotopes

Keywords: cluser model, NU method, ge and Sr, potential central

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Authors: Ana María Rojas Chaparro, Cristian Camilo Sarmiento Chaves

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Given the growing importance of logistics as a discipline for efficient management of materials flow and information, the adoption of tools that permit to create facilities in making decisions based on a global perspective of the system studied has been essential. The article shows how from a concepts-based model is possible to organize and represent in appropriate way the reality, showing accurate and timely information, features that make this kind of models an ideal component to support an information system, recognizing that information as relevant to establish particularities that allow get a better performance about the evaluated sector.

Keywords: system, information, conceptual model, logistics

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: Siamak Eskandari, Neda Ebadi

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Among common electronic parts which have been invented and have made a great revolution in the lighting system through the world, certainly LEDs have no rival. These small parts with their very low power consumption, very dazzling and powerful light and small size and with their extremely high lifetime- compared to incandescent bulbs and compact fluorescent lamp (CFLs) have undoubtedly revolutionized the lighting industry of the world. Based on conducted studies and experiments, in addition to their acceptable light and low power consumption -compared to incandescent bulbs and CFLs-, they have very low and in some cases zero environmental pollution and negative effects on human beings. Because of their longevity, in the case of using high-quality circuits and proper and consistent use of LEDs in conventional and intelligent buildings, there will be no need to replace the burnout lamps, for a long time (10 years). In this study which was conducted on 10-watt power LEDs with suitable heatsink/cooling, considerable amount of heat was generated during lighting after 5 minutes and 45 seconds. The temperature rose to above 99 degrees Celsius and this amount of heat can raise the water temperature to 60 degrees Celsius and more. Based on conducted experiments, this can provide the heat required for bathing, washing, radiators (in cold seasons) easily and only by imposing very low cost and it will be a big step in the optimization of energy consumption in the future.

Keywords: energy, light, water, optimization of power LED

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Authors: Ivan Sosa Gomez

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Digitalization has impacted the entire insurance value chain, and the growing movement towards P2P platforms and the collaborative economy is also beginning to have a significant impact. P2P insurance is defined as innovation, enabling policyholders to pool their capital, self-organize, and self-manage their own insurance. In this context, new InsurTech start-ups are emerging as peer-to-peer (P2P) providers, based on a model that differs from traditional insurance. As a result, although P2P platforms do not change the fundamental basis of insurance, they do enable potentially more efficient business models to be established in terms of ensuring the coverage of risk. It is therefore relevant to determine whether p2p innovation can have substantial effects on the future of the insurance sector. For this purpose, it is considered necessary to develop P2P innovation from a business perspective, as well as to build a comparison between a traditional model and a P2P model from an actuarial perspective. Objectives: The objectives are (1) to represent P2P innovation in the business model compared to the traditional insurance model and (2) to establish a comparison between a traditional model and a P2P model from an actuarial perspective. Methodology: The research design is defined as action research in terms of understanding and solving the problems of a collectivity linked to an environment, applying theory and best practices according to the approach. For this purpose, the study is carried out through the participatory variant, which involves the collaboration of the participants, given that in this design, participants are considered experts. For this purpose, prolonged immersion in the field is carried out as the main instrument for data collection. Finally, an actuarial model is developed relating to the calculation of premiums that allows for the establishment of projections of future scenarios and the generation of conclusions between the two models. Main Contributions: From an actuarial and business perspective, we aim to contribute by developing a comparison of the two models in the coverage of risk in order to determine whether P2P innovation can have substantial effects on the future of the insurance sector.

Keywords: Insurtech, innovation, business model, P2P, insurance

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Authors: Flevy Lasrado

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show the relationship between the service quality dimensions and model them to propose quality improvements using interpretive structural modelling (ISM). Methodology: This paper used an interpretive structural modelling (ISM). The data was collected from the expert opinions that included a questionnaire. The detailed method of using ISM is discussed in the paper. Findings: The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions. Practical implications or Original Value: An ISM based model has been developed for healthcare facility for improving customer satisfaction and increasing market share. Although there is lot of research on SERVQUAL model adapted to healthcare sector, no study has been done to understand the interactions among these dimensions. So the major contribution of this research work is the development of contextual relationships among identified variables through a systematic framework. The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions.

Keywords: SERQUAL, healthcare, quality, service quality

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Authors: Nikki Berrange, Gizelle Willows

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Business rescue has become increasingly popular since its inclusion in the Companies Act of South Africa in May 2011. The Alternate Exchange (AltX) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has experienced a marked increase in the number of companies entering business rescue. This study sampled twenty companies listed on the AltX to determine whether Altman’s Z-score model for emerging markets (ZEM) or Taffler’s Z-score model is a more accurate model in predicting financial distress for small to medium size companies in South Africa. The study was performed over three different time horizons; one, two and three years prior to the event of financial distress, in order to determine how many companies each model predicted would be unlikely to succeed as well as the predictive ability and accuracy of the respective models. The study found that Taffler’s Z-score model had a greater ability at predicting financial distress from all three-time horizons.

Keywords: Altman’s ZEM-score, Altman’s Z-score, AltX, business rescue, Taffler’s Z-score

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Authors: G. L. C. Yap

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Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Gaussian process, long-memory, normalization, value-at-risk, volatility, Whittle estimator

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Authors: James Kinsella

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There is currently very little understanding of how the interaction between in- vestors, consumers, the firms (agents) affect a) the transmission of information, and b) the creation and transfer of value and wealth between these two groups. Employing scholarly ideas from multiple research areas (behavioural finance, emotional finance, econo-biology, and game theory) we develop a conceptual the- oretic model (the ‘bow-tie’ model) as a framework for considering this interaction. Our bow-tie model views information transfer, value and wealth creation, and transfer through the lens of “investor-consumer connection facilitated through the communicative medium of the ‘firm’ (agents)”. We confront our bow-tie model with theoretical and practical examples. Next, we utilise consumer and business confidence data alongside index data, to conduct quantitative analy- sis, to support our bow-tie concept, and to introduce the concept of “investor- consumer connection”. We highlight the importance of information persuasiveness, knowledge, and emotional categorization of characteristics in facilitating a communicative relationship between investors, consumers, and the firm (agents), forming academic and practical applications of the conceptual bow-tie model, alongside applications to wider instances, such as those seen within the Covid-19 pandemic.

Keywords: behavioral finance, emotional finance, economy-biology, social mood

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Authors: Syahruddin Sumardi, Indra Fajar Alamsyah, Junaidah Hashim

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This study attempts to explore and presents a proposed recruitment model in Islamic university which aligned with holistic role. It is a conceptual paper in nature. In turn, this study is designed to utilize exploratory approach. Literature and document review that related to this topic are used as the methods to analyse the content found. Recruitment for any organization is fundamental to achieve its goal effectively. Staffing in universities is vital due to the importance role of lecturers. Currently, Islamic universities still adopt the common process of recruitment for their academic staffs. Whereas, they have own characteristics which are embedded in their institutions. Furthermore, the FCWC (Foundation, Capability, Worldview and Commitment) model of recruitment proposes to suit the holistic character of Islamic university. Further studies are required to empirically validate the concept through systematic investigations. Additionally, measuring this model by a designed means is appreciated. The model provides the map and alternative tool of recruitment for Islamic universities to determine the process of recruitment which can appropriate their institutions. In addition, it also allows stakeholders and policy makers to consider regarding Islamic values that should inculcate in the Islamic higher learning institutions. This study initiates a foundational contribution for an early sequence of research.

Keywords: academic staff, Islamic values, recruitment model, university

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Authors: Rawaa El Ayoubi

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Many researchers, academics and practitioners have developed leadership theories during the 20th century. This substantial effort has built more leadership theories, generating considerable organisational research on leadership models in contemporary literature. This paper explores the stages and drivers of leadership theory evolution based on the researcher’s personal conclusions and review of leadership theories. The purpose of this paper is to create a Leadership Process Model (LPM) that can provide guidance in dealing with the key challenges within the organisation. This integrative model of organisational leadership is based on inner meaning, leader values and vision. It further addresses the relationships between leadership theory, practice and development, exploring why challenges exist within the field of leadership theory and how these challenges can be mitigated.

Keywords: leadership challenges, leadership process model, leadership |theories, organisational leadership, paradigm development

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Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

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Wear of materials is an everyday experience and has been observed and studied for long time. The prediction of wear is a fundamental problem in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the planning of maintenance interventions and economy. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin which is made of steel with a tip, is positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument; where the Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, and the alicona was used to measure the volume loss for pin and disc. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling and the simulation results are implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be considered as a powerful tool for wear measurements and how the neural network is an effective algorithm for wear estimation.

Keywords: wear modelling, Archard Model, ASTM Model, Neural Networks Model, Pin-on-disc Test, Talysurf, digital microscope, Alicona

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Authors: H. D. Ibrahim, H. C. Chinwenyi, T. Danjuma

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An option is defined as a financial contract that provides the holder the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a specified quantity of an underlying asset in the future at a fixed price (called a strike price) on or before the expiration date of the option. This paper examined two approaches for derivation of Partial Differential Equation (PDE) options price valuation formula for the Heston stochastic volatility model. We obtained various PDE option price valuation formulas using the riskless portfolio method and the application of Feynman-Kac theorem respectively. From the results obtained, we see that the two derived PDEs for Heston model are distinct and non-unique. This establishes the fact of incompleteness in the model for option price valuation.

Keywords: Black-Scholes partial differential equations, Ito process, option price valuation, partial differential equations

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Authors: Nahid Banihashemi

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An emerging important area of the life sciences is systems biology, which involves understanding the integrated behavior of large numbers of components interacting via non-linear reaction terms. A centrally important problem in this area is an understanding of the co-metabolism of protein and carbohydrate, as it has been clearly demonstrated that the ratio of these metabolites in diet is a major determinant of obesity and related chronic disease. In this regard, we have considered a systems biology model for the co-metabolism of carbon and nitrogen in colonies of the fungus Mucor mucedo. Oscillations are an important diagnostic of underlying dynamical processes of this model. The maintenance of specific patterns of oscillation and its relation to the robustness of this system are the important issues which have been targeted in this paper. In this regard, parametric sensitivity approach as a theoretical approach has been considered for the analysis of the robustness of this model. As a result, the parameters of the model which produce the largest sensitivities have been identified. Furthermore, the largest changes that can be made in each parameter of the model without losing the oscillations in biomass production have been computed. The results are obtained from the implementation of parametric sensitivity analysis in Matlab.

Keywords: system biology, parametric sensitivity analysis, robustness, carbon and nitrogen co-metabolism, Mucor mucedo

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Authors: Feijoo E. Colomine Duran, Carlos E. Peñaloza Corredor

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There modeling component selection financial investment (Portfolio) a variety of problems that can be addressed with optimization techniques under evolutionary schemes. For his feature, the problem of selection of investment components of a dichotomous relationship between two elements that are opposed: The Portfolio Performance and Risk presented by choosing it. This relationship was modeled by Markowitz through a media problem (Performance) - variance (risk), ie must Maximize Performance and Minimize Risk. This research included the study and implementation of multi-objective evolutionary techniques to solve these problems, taking as experimental framework financial market equities Colombia Stock Exchange between 2009-2015. Comparisons three multiobjective evolutionary algorithms, namely the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2) and Indicator-Based Selection in Multiobjective Search (IBEA) were performed using two measures well known performance: The Hypervolume indicator and R_2 indicator, also it became a nonparametric statistical analysis and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. The comparative analysis also includes an evaluation of the financial efficiency of the investment portfolio chosen by the implementation of various algorithms through the Sharpe ratio. It is shown that the portfolio provided by the implementation of the algorithms mentioned above is very well located between the different stock indices provided by the Colombia Stock Exchange.

Keywords: finance, optimization, portfolio, Markowitz, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Isik Cetintav, Cenk Misirli, Yilmaz Can

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This work investigates upsetting of the tri-metallic cylindrical billets both experimentally and analytically with a reduction ratio 30%. Steel, brass, and copper are used for the outer and outmost rings and aluminum for the inner core. Two different models have been designed to show material flow and the cavity took place over the two interfaces during forming after this reduction ratio. Each model has an outmost ring material as steel. Model 1 has an outer ring between the outmost ring and the solid core material as copper and Model 2 has a material as brass. Solid core is aluminum for each model. Billets were upset in press machine by using parallel flat dies. Upsetting load was recorded and compared for models and single billets. To extend the tests and compare with experimental procedure to a wider range of inner core and outer ring geometries, finite element model was performed. ABAQUS software was used for the simulations. The aim is to show how contact between outmost ring, outer ring and the inner core are carried on throughout the upsetting process. Results have shown that, with changing in height, between outmost ring, outer ring and inner core, the Model 1 and Model 2 had very good interaction, and the contact surfaces of models had various interface behaviour. It is also observed that tri-metallic materials have lower weight but better mechanical properties than single materials. This can give an idea for using and producing these new materials for different purposes.

Keywords: tri-metallic, upsetting, copper, brass, steel, aluminum

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Authors: Hilya Mudrika Arini, Nur Aini Masruroh, Budi Hartono

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There are more than 20 terrorist threats from 2002 to 2012 in Indonesia. Despite of this fact, preventive solution through studies in the field of national security in Indonesia has not been conducted comprehensively. This study aims to provide a preventive solution by developing prediction model of the terrorist threat in Indonesia by using Bayesian network. There are eight stages to build the model, started from literature review, build and verify Bayesian belief network to what-if scenario. In order to build the model, four experts from different perspectives are utilized. This study finds several significant findings. First, news and the readiness of terrorist group are the most influent factor. Second, according to several scenarios of the news portion, it can be concluded that the higher positive news proportion, the higher probability of terrorist threat will occur. Therefore, the preventive solution to reduce the terrorist threat in Indonesia based on the model is by keeping the positive news portion to a maximum of 38%.

Keywords: Bayesian network, decision analysis, national security system, text mining

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Authors: Ji-Hyok Kim, Il-Gyong Paek, Yong-Jun Kim

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We propose a numerical model based on drift-diffusion theory and lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) to analyze the electro-hydrodynamic behavior in low-pressure direct current (DC) glow discharge plasmas. We apply the drift-diffusion theory for 4-species and employ the standard lattice Boltzmann model (SLBM) for the electron, the finite difference-lattice Boltzmann model (FD-LBM) for heavy particles, and the finite difference model (FDM) for the electric potential, respectively. Our results are compared with those of other methods, and emphasize the necessity of a two-dimensional analysis for glow discharge.

Keywords: glow discharge, lattice Boltzmann method, numerical analysis, plasma simulation, electro-hydrodynamic

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Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

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TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modelling.

Keywords: calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, metropolitan planning organizations

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Authors: Nasir Khalid, S. Thirumalaichelvam

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In most buildings, according to US Department of Energy Data Book, the electrical consumption attributable to centralized heating and ventilation of air- condition (HVAC) component can be as high as 40-60% of the total electricity consumption for an entire building. To provide efficient energy management for the market today, researchers are finding new ways to develop a system that can save electrical consumption of buildings even more. In this concept paper, a system known as Intelligent Chiller Energy Efficiency (iCEE) System is being developed that is capable of saving up to 25% from the chiller’s existing electrical energy consumption. In variable frequency drives (VFDs), research has found significant savings up to 30% of electrical energy consumption. Together with the VFDs at specific Air Handling Unit (AHU) of HVAC component, this system will save even more electrical energy consumption. The iCEE System is compatible with any make, model or age of centrifugal, rotary or reciprocating chiller air-conditioning systems which are electrically driven. The iCEE system uses engineering principles of efficiency analysis, enthalpy analysis, heat transfer, mathematical prediction, modified genetic algorithm, psychometrics analysis, and optimization formulation to achieve true and tangible energy savings for consumers.

Keywords: variable frequency drives, adjustable speed drives, ac drives, chiller energy system

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Authors: M. Z. Raqab, Debasis Kundu, M. A. Meraou

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In this paper, we have analyzed maximum precipitation data during a particular period of time obtained from different stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network of the USA. One important point to mention is that some stations are shut down on certain days for some reason or the other. Hence, the maximum values are recorded by excluding those readings. It is assumed that the number of stations that operate follows zero-truncated Poisson random variables, and the daily precipitation follows a lognormal random variable. We call this model a compound truncated Poisson lognormal model. The proposed model has three unknown parameters, and it can take a variety of shapes. The maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained quite conveniently using Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators are also derived. The associated confidence intervals also can be obtained from the observed Fisher information matrix. Simulation results have been performed to check the performance of the EM algorithm, and it is observed that the EM algorithm works quite well in this case. When we analyze the precipitation data set using the proposed model, it is observed that the proposed model provides a better fit than some of the existing models.

Keywords: compound Poisson lognormal distribution, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation, approximate maximum likelihood estimation, Fisher information, skew distribution

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Authors: Mais Khader, Xingjie Wei

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This research sheds light on female entrepreneurs by providing new insights on the survival predictions of companies led by females in the UK. This study aims to build a predictive machine learning model of the survival of female-led & co-led small & medium enterprises (SMEs) in the UK over the period 2000-2020. The predictive model built utilised a combination of financial and non-financial features related to both companies and their directors to predict SMEs' survival. These features were studied in terms of their contribution to the resultant predictive model. Five machine learning models are used in the modelling: Decision tree, AdaBoost, Naïve Bayes, Logistic regression and SVM. The AdaBoost model had the highest performance of the five models, with an accuracy of 73% and an AUC of 80%. The results show high feature importance in predicting companies' survival for company size, management experience, financial performance, industry, region, and females' percentage in management.

Keywords: company survival, entrepreneurship, females, machine learning, SMEs

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Authors: Nkechinyere Joy Olawuyi, Babajide Samuel Afolabi, Bola Ibitoye

Abstract:

This study collected a preprocessed dataset of chest radiographs and formulated a deep neural network model for detecting abnormalities. It also evaluated the performance of the formulated model and implemented a prototype of the formulated model. This was with the view to developing a deep neural network model to automatically classify abnormalities in chest radiographs. In order to achieve the overall purpose of this research, a large set of chest x-ray images were sourced for and collected from the CheXpert dataset, which is an online repository of annotated chest radiographs compiled by the Machine Learning Research Group, Stanford University. The chest radiographs were preprocessed into a format that can be fed into a deep neural network. The preprocessing techniques used were standardization and normalization. The classification problem was formulated as a multi-label binary classification model, which used convolutional neural network architecture to make a decision on whether an abnormality was present or not in the chest radiographs. The classification model was evaluated using specificity, sensitivity, and Area Under Curve (AUC) score as the parameter. A prototype of the classification model was implemented using Keras Open source deep learning framework in Python Programming Language. The AUC ROC curve of the model was able to classify Atelestasis, Support devices, Pleural effusion, Pneumonia, A normal CXR (no finding), Pneumothorax, and Consolidation. However, Lung opacity and Cardiomegaly had a probability of less than 0.5 and thus were classified as absent. Precision, recall, and F1 score values were 0.78; this implies that the number of False Positive and False Negative is the same, revealing some measure of label imbalance in the dataset. The study concluded that the developed model is sufficient to classify abnormalities present in chest radiographs into present or absent.

Keywords: transfer learning, convolutional neural network, radiograph, classification, multi-label

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