Search results for: sale volatility
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 408

Search results for: sale volatility

168 Assessment of Aflatoxins in Marketed Fish: A Potential Forgotten Risk in Cameroon

Authors: Evelyne Nguegwouo, Raoul Fonkem Sonfack Tsakem, Abel Wade, Gabriel Nama Medoua, Kamgaing Theophile

Abstract:

Fresh and smoked fish are widely consumed in Cameroon. The traditional nature of smoking, the lack of hygiene in production, the poor preservation of stocks and the long storage time for certain types of fish considerably favor the contamination of products by molds, which secrete toxic molecules called mycotoxins. Today there are more than 400 types of mycotoxins, Aflatoxins being the most formidable. These toxins are considered carcinogenic in humans. It is in this perspective that we proposed to evaluate the total Aflatoxins in the fish marketed and consumed by the populations of the city of Yaoundé in Cameroon. On the one hand, it was a question of conducting a survey of fish consumers and sellers in points of sale, sampling fish of three species [Marquereau (Scomber scombrus), Cod (Gadus morhua) and Bifaka (Ethmalosa fimbriata)], randomly in some markets of the city to evaluate the total Aflatoxins contents (B1, B2, G1, G2) by the quantitative ELISA method and finally to estimate the level of exposure of the populations. It emerges from this study that of the 30 samples analyzed, 96.1% contained total Aflatoxins and two samples had total Aflatoxins levels above the standard, which is 20 ppb. These first results show that the risk is present in Cameroon and in order to improve the quality of marketed fish in terms of mycotoxins, a more thorough control must be done from the production chain to the consumer.

Keywords: aflatoxins, evaluation, exposure, mycotoxins, fish

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167 Revisiting the Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk from the DSGE View

Authors: Eiji Okano, Kazuyuki Inagaki

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We revisit Uribe's `Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk' advocating that there is a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and suppressing default. We develop a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with nominal rigidities and compare two de facto inflation stabilization policies, optimal monetary policy and optimal monetary and fiscal policy with the minimizing interest rate spread policy which completely suppress the default. Under the optimal monetary and fiscal policy, not only the nominal interest rate but also the tax rate work to minimize welfare costs through stabilizing inflation. Under the optimal monetary both inflation and output gap are completely stabilized although those are fluctuating under the optimal monetary policy. In addition, volatility in the default rate under the optimal monetary policy is considerably lower than one under the optimal monetary policy. Thus, there is not the SI-SD trade-off. In addition, while the minimizing interest rate spread policy makes inflation rate severely volatile, the optimal monetary and fiscal policy stabilize both the inflation and the default. A trade-off between stabilizing inflation and suppressing default is not so severe what pointed out by Uribe.

Keywords: sovereign risk, optimal monetary policy, fiscal theory of the price level, DSGE

Procedia PDF Downloads 301
166 Churn Prediction for Savings Bank Customers: A Machine Learning Approach

Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
165 Ethical Investment Instruments for Financial Sustainability

Authors: Sarkar Humayun Kabir

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This paper aims to investigate whether ethical investment instruments could contribute to stability in financial markets. In order to address the main issue, the study investigates the stability of return in seven conventional and Islamic equity markets of Asia, Europe and North America and in five major commodity markets starting from 1996 to June 2012. In addition, the study examines the unconditional correlation between returns of the assets under review to investigate portfolio diversification benefits of investors. Applying relevant methods, the study finds that investors may enjoy sustainable returns from their portfolios by investing in ethical financial instruments such as Islamic equities. In addition, it should be noted that most of the commodities, gold in particular, are either low or negatively correlated with equity returns. These results suggest that investors would be better off by investing in portfolios combining Islamic equities and commodities in general. The sustainable returns of ethical investments has important implications for the investors and markets since these investments can provide stable returns while the investors can avoid production of goods and services which believes to be harmful for human and the society as a whole.

Keywords: financial sustainability, ethical investment instruments, islamic equity, dynamic conditional correlation, conditional volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 281
164 Implementation Association Rule Method in Determining the Layout of Qita Supermarket as a Strategy in the Competitive Retail Industry in Indonesia

Authors: Dwipa Rizki Utama, Hanief Ibrahim

Abstract:

The development of industry retail in Indonesia is very fast, various strategy was undertaken to boost the customer satisfaction and the productivity purchases to boost the profit, one of which is implementing strategies layout. The purpose of this study is to determine the layout of Qita supermarket, a retail industry in Indonesia, in order to improve customer satisfaction and to maximize the rate of products’ sale as a whole, so as the infrequently purchased products will be purchased. This research uses a literature study method, and one of the data mining methods is association rule which applied in market basket analysis. Data were tested amounted 100 from 160 after pre-processing data, so then the distribution department and 26 departments corresponding to the data previous layout will be obtained. From those data, by the association rule method, customer behavior when purchasing items simultaneously can be studied, so then the layout of the supermarket based on customer behavior can be determined. Using the rapid miner software by the minimal support 25% and minimal confidence 30% showed that the 14th department purchased at the same time with department 10, 21st department purchased at the same time with department 13, 15th department purchased at the same time with department 12, 14th department purchased at the same time with department 12, and 10th department purchased at the same time with department 14. From those results, a better supermarket layout can be arranged than the previous layout.

Keywords: industry retail, strategy, association rule, supermarket

Procedia PDF Downloads 167
163 Transformational Leadership and Structural Organizational Ambidexterity - The Mediating and Moderating Role of Social Astuteness and Status Incongruence

Authors: Ganesh Prasad Mishra, Kusum Lata Mishra

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Structural, organizational ambidexterity influences along with transformational leadership (TL) in the firms to endure viability in conditions of environmental volatility, high level of uncertainty, and possible turbulence. Combining shreds of evidence from the study of N=693 employees of a large private multi-conglomerate organization in the Middle East, we tested whether social astuteness interceded the effects of (TL) on structural, organizational ambidexterity (SOA). Other tested areas were whether status incongruence moderated transformational leadership and structural, organizational ambidexterity relationships. After analyzing through Hierarchically Linear Modelling, we found that social astuteness interceded the effects of TL on SOA, and similarly, status incongruence moderated relationships between TL and SOA. The association between TL and SOA was found to be less encouraging with a high level of status incongruence, and their relationship was strengthened by a lower level of status incongruence. We tested the hypothesized theoretical framework that articulates the conditions under which the social astuteness ideology infused in transformational leadership for achieving higher structural and organizational ambidexterity will likely occur. Findings, suggestions, and future directions for research have been deliberated in detail.

Keywords: transformational leadership, social astuteness, status incongruence, relationship, structural organizational ambidexterity.

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
162 Determination of Multidrug-Resistant Livestock Associated Bacteria from Goats, Cows, and Buffaloes in Pokhara Kaski

Authors: Ganga Sagar Bhattarai, Swastika Gurung

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Antibiotics were being misused in both humans and animals, which led to the development of multidrug-resistant microorganisms. Antibiotic abuse is likely rampant among goats, cows, and buffaloes in order to boost growth and reduce production losses. The aim of this study is to know the multidrug resistance (MDR) bacteria in goats, cows, and buffaloes. Out of 68 samples that were examined, S. aureus, Bacillus spp., E. coli, Shigella spp., Klebsiella spp., S. epidremidis, and Salmonella spp. were isolated. S. aureus was the highest isolated bacteria (91.17%), Bacillus spp. (61.76%), E. coli (48.52%), Shigella spp. (22.05%), Klebsiella spp. (17.64%), S. epidermidis (13.23%), and the Salmonella spp. (7.35%). Salmonella spp. and E. coli showed multidrug resistance to at least four antibiotics, including Amoxicillin, Tetracycline, Piperacillin, and Ciprofloxacin, in Salmonella and to at least three antibiotics, including Amoxicillin, Tetracycline, and Nalidic acid. The highest resistance bacteria Salmonella spp. showed (57.14%) E. coli and Bacillus spp. showed (42.85%) S. aureus, S. epidermidis, and Shigella spp. showed (28.57%), and Klebsiella spp. showed (14.28%). This study showed that antibiotic-resistant bacteria with high levels of Amoxicillin, Penicillin, and Tetracycline resistance are present in healthy farm animals such as goats, cows, and buffaloes. Options for antibiotic therapy in both humans and animals will likely be limited as a result. The use, distribution, storage, and sale of antibiotics in veterinary practices must consequently be under strict control.

Keywords: multidrug resistance, multidrug resistance bacteria, susceptibility testing, bacterial infections

Procedia PDF Downloads 71
161 COVID-19 Impact on Online Digital Marketing Business Activities

Authors: Veepaul Kaur Mann Balwinder Singh

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The COVID-19 had an intense impact on several countries across the world. National governments have imposed widespread restrictions to prevent the growth of this pandemic. The new health competitive scenario induced by the COVID-19 crisis raised many issues on how business activities should be reorganized due to the difficulties of physical interactions with distributors, suppliers and customers. The pandemic has particularly affected the whole selling process because of the relevant issues that emerged in managing physical sale channels and interactions with one another, both in the Business-to-Consumer and in the Business-to-Business markets. Recent research about the appropriate actions and strategies that could help firms overcome the crisis has highlighted the key role of digital expertise that may ensure connections and, thus, help business activities run smoothly. This could be true, especially with the occurrence of strong limitations on physical interactions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The catastrophe changes life publically and economically. People are living alone for following the social distancing norms. In that set-up, Digital Marketing is playing an important role in civilization. Anyone can buy any item, pay bills, transfer money and compare items through Digital Marketing without physical interactions. After COVID-19, people will be more aware of health safety and trust. So, through Digital Marketing, organizations can approach customers and provide good service environments. In such a situation, the online network becomes the most important encouraging for online customers to get in contact with the firm and carry out online selling and purchasing activities around the world.

Keywords: COVID-19, business, digital marketing, online customer

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160 The Socioeconomic and Moral Impacts of the Syrian Refugees to Turkey

Authors: Inci Aksu Kargin

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The civil war which began in the Daraa province of Syria in March 2011, has caused thousands of Syrians to die and millions more to seek refuge in other countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt. In order to understand the Syrian refugees’ living conditions and the problems they have experienced in Turkey in-depth, and to analyze how the arrival of the Syrian refugees in Turkey has affected the local people who live in Turkish-Syrian border, this study employed interviews, which were conducted with three different groups. First, 60 Syrian refugees, who have settled in Hatay and Gaziantep, were interviewed. Then, the Turkish government institutions, and NGOs, which are responsible for assisting the refugees, were interviewed. These interviews revealed that many Syrian refugees have encountered with several issues such as access to labor and housing markets as well as free healthcare and public education services. Second, 60 Turkish citizens living in Hatay and Gaziantep provinces were interviewed. These interviews shed light on the many issues (e.g., increase of unemployment, increase in the rental and sale prices of the houses, decrease in the quality of healthcare services, increase in traffic problems, problems with regard to the usage of parks and gardens) that Turkish citizens began experiencing after mass asylum claim of the Syrian refugees to Turkey. In addition to these, the existing social problems in Turkey such as child labor, begging, child brides, and illegal marriages (religious marriages) worsen.

Keywords: migration, refugees, Syrian civil war, Turkey

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159 Environmental and Economic Impact of Mangrove Deforestation: Case Study of Vadamaradchy East, Sri Lanka

Authors: Kumaraamy Sasikumar

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The study was conducted in Vadamarachchi-East in Sri Lanka. Data collection was done for a period of two months from June to July 2011. The main focus of this study was to examine factors contributing to mangrove deforestation within the study area, and resultant impacts from deforestation. The study found that, the main factors that have contributed to deforestation include: Long civil wars in the region, poverty which pushed people to clear the forest to earn income through the sale of firewood and timber among others, industrial development, increasing demand for farm and settlement land, limited knowledge within the local community, weak government polices and implementation strategies, and natural disasters especially the 2004 Tsunami destruction. The impacts presented are those that impact both on the environment and the economy including; loss of income sources, loss of biodiversity, climate change, desertification, conflicts in the use of forest products and loss of land productivity due to reduced fertility caused by soil erosion. However, a few strategies have been put in place by the government to ensure the sustainable use of mangrove forest products, though these have not proved successful in reducing deforestation. The recommendations make suggestions to the government and other stakeholders to work together in ensuring sustainable use of natural resources, for example implementing laws and regulations aimed at controlling deforestation among others.

Keywords: deforestation, impacts, actors, environment, economic, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 338
158 A Comparative Analysis of Global Minimum Variance and Naïve Portfolios: Performance across Stock Market Indices and Selected Economic Regimes Using Various Risk-Return Metrics

Authors: Lynmar M. Didal, Ramises G. Manzano Jr., Jacque Bon-Isaac C. Aboy

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This study analyzes the performance of global minimum variance and naive portfolios across different economic periods, using monthly stock returns from the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI), S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW). The performance is evaluated through the Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, Jensen’s Alpha, Treynor ratio, and Information ratio. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of short selling on portfolio performance. Six-time periods are defined for analysis, encompassing events such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings indicate that the Naive portfolio generally outperforms the GMV portfolio in the S&P 500, signifying higher returns with increased volatility. Conversely, in the PSEI and DOW, the GMV portfolio shows more efficient risk-adjusted returns. Short selling significantly impacts the GMV portfolio during mid-GFC and mid-COVID periods. The study offers insights for investors, suggesting the Naive portfolio for higher risk tolerance and the GMV portfolio as a conservative alternative.

Keywords: portfolio performance, global minimum variance, naïve portfolio, risk-adjusted metrics, short-selling

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157 Using the Nerlovian Adjustment Model to Assess the Response of Farmers to Price and Other Related Factors: Evidence from Sierra Leone Rice Cultivation

Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V. Gborie

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The goal of this study was to increase the awareness of the description and assessments of rice acreage response and to offer mechanisms for agricultural policy scrutiny. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique was utilized to determine the coefficients of acreage response models for the rice varieties. The magnitudes of the coefficients (λ) of both the ROK lagged and NERICA lagged acreages were found positive and highly significant, which indicates that farmers’ adjustment rate was very low. Regarding lagged actual price for both the ROK and NERICE rice varieties, the short-run price elasticities were lower than long-run, which is suggesting a long-term adjustment of the acreage, is under the crop. However, the apparent recommendations for policy transformation are to open farm gate prices and to decrease government’s involvement in agricultural sector especially in the acquisition of agricultural inputs. Impending research have to be centred on how this might be better realized. Necessary conditions should be made available to the private sector by means of minimizing price volatility. In accordance with structural reforms, it is necessary to convey output prices to farmers with minimum distortion. There is a need to eradicate price subsidies and control, which generate distortion in the market in addition to huge financial costs.

Keywords: acreage response, rate of adjustment, rice varieties, Sierra Leone

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156 Analysis of the Presence of Alkylglycerols by Gas Chromatography in Ostrich Oil

Authors: Luana N. Cardozo, Debora A. S. Coutinho, Fabiola Lagher, Bruno J. G. Silva, Ivonilce Venture, Mainara Tesser, Graciela Venera

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Ostrich oil is used as food in Brazil, and it has been the subject of scientific research because it contains essential fatty acids (Omega 3, 6, 7, and 9), which provide benefits to human health. Alkylglycerols are lipid ethers consisted of a saturated or unsaturated hydrocarbon chain joined by ether-type bonding to one of the glycerol hydroxyls. It is known that supplementation with alkylglycerols can act significantly on the functioning of immune system cells, both in pathological situations and in homeostasis. Objective: Analyze the presence of alkylglycerols in ostrich oil. Methods: The ostrich oil was bought from an industry that manufactures the product for sale as food, located in Mirante da Serra, northern Brazil. The samples were sent for analysis to the chemistry department of the Federal University of Paraná, where they were analyzed by the gas chromatography method. Results: The analysis of the ostrich oil presented alkylglycerols in area 514505154. Comparison, it is possible to observe that shark liver oil contains the area 26190196, and the difference between both is highly significant. Conclusion: The importance of alkylglycerol supplementation for the immune system is known. The analysis of the results made it possible to verify the presence of alkylglycerols in the ostrich oil, which is five times higher than in the shark liver oil, that would be the largest source food, but was surpassed by the ostrich oil until the present time. The present study emphasizes that ostrich oil can be considered a food source of alkylglycerols and may play a promising role in the immune system because it contains such substance, but further studies are needed to prove its performance in the body.

Keywords: ostrich oil, nutritional composition, alkylglycerols, food

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155 A Method for Evaluating the Mechanical Stress on Mandibular Advancement Devices

Authors: Tsung-yin Lin, Yi-yu Lee, Ching-hua Hung

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Snoring, the lay term for obstructive breathing during sleep, is one of the most prevalent of obnoxious human habits. Loud snoring usually makes others feel noisy and uncomfortable. Snoring also influences the sleep quality of snorers’ bed partners, because of the noise they do not get to sleep easily. Snoring causes the reduce of sleep quality leading to several medical problems, such as excessive daytime sleepiness, high blood pressure, increased risk for cardiovascular disease and cerebral vascular accident, and etc. There are many non-prescription devices offered for sale on the market, but very limited data are available to support a beneficial effect of these devices on snoring and use in treating obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Mandibular advancement devices (MADs), also termed as the Mandibular reposition devices (MRDs) are removable devices which are worn at night during sleep. Most devices require dental impression, bite registration, and fabrication by a dental laboratory. Those devices are fixed to upper and lower teeth and are adjusted to advance the mandible. The amount of protrusion is adjusted to meet the therapeutic requirements, comfort, and tolerance. Many devices have a fixed degree of advancement. Some are adjustable in a limited degree. This study focuses on the stress analysis of Mandibular Advancement Devices (MADs), which are considered as a standard treatment of snoring that promoted by American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM). This paper proposes a new MAD design, and the finite element analysis (FEA) is introduced to precede the stress simulation for this MAD.

Keywords: finite element analysis, mandibular advancement devices, mechanical stress, snoring

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154 Performance of Shariah-Based Investment: Evidence from Pakistani Listed Firms

Authors: Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt

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Following the stock selection guidelines provided by the Sharia Board (SB), we segregate the firms listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) into Sharia Compliant (SC) and Non-Sharia Compliant (NSC) stocks. Subsequently, we form portfolios within each group based on market capitalization and volatility. The purpose is to analyze and compare the performance of these two groups as the SC stocks have lesser diversification opportunities due to SB restrictions. Using data ranging from January 2004 until June 2016, our results indicate that in most of the cases the risk-adjusted returns (alphas) for the returns differential between SC and NCS firms are positive. In addition, the SC firms in comparison to their counterparts in PSX provides excess returns that are hedged against the market, size, and value-based systematic risks factors. Overall, these results reconcile with one prevailing notion that the SC stocks that have lower financial leverage and higher investment in real assets are lesser exposed to market-based risks. Further, the SC firms that are more capitalized and less volatile, perform better than lower capitalized and higher volatile SC and NSC firms. To sum up our results, we do not find any substantial evidence for opportunity loss due to limited diversification opportunities in case of SC firms. To optimally utilize scarce resources, investors should consider SC firms as a candidate in portfolio construction.

Keywords: diversification, performance, sharia compliant stocks, risk adjusted returns

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153 The Effect of PM10 Dispersion from Industrial, Residential and Commercial Areas in Arid Environment

Authors: Meshari Al-Harbi

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A comparative area-season-elemental-wise time series analysis by Dust Track monitor (2012-2013) revealed high PM10 dispersion in the outdoor environment in the sequence of industrial> express highways>residential>open areas. Time series analysis from 7AM-6AM (until next day), 30d (monthly), 3600sec. (for any given period of a month), and 12 months (yearly) showed peak PM10 dispersion during 1AM-7AM, 1d-4d and 25d-31d of every month, 1500-3600 with the exception in PM10 dispersion in residential areas, and in the months-March to June, respectively. This time-bound PM10 dispersion suggests the primary influence of human activities (peak mobility and productivity period for a given time frame) besides the secondary influence of meteorological parameters (high temperature and wind action) and, occasional dust storms. Whereas, gravimetric analysis reveals the influence of precipitation, low temperature and low volatility resulting high trace metals in PM10 during winter than in summer and primarily attributes to the influence of nature besides, the secondary attributes of smoke stack emission from various industries and automobiles. Furthermore, our study recommends residents to limit outdoor air pollution exposures and take precautionary measures to inhale PM10 pollutants from the atmosphere.

Keywords: aerosol, pollution, respirable particulates, trace-metals

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152 The Conditionality of Financial Risk: A Comparative Analysis of High-Tech and Utility Companies Listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SSE)

Authors: Joseph Paul Chunga

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The investment universe is awash with a myriad of financial choices that investors have to opt for, which principally culminates into a duality between aggressive or conservative approaches. Howbeit, it is pertinent to emphasize that the investment vehicles with an aggressive approach tend to take on more risk than the latter group in an effort to generate higher future returns for their respective investors. This study examines the conditionality effect that such partiality in financing has on the High-Tech and Public Utility companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SSE). Specifically, it examines the significance of the relationship between capitalization ratios of Total Debt Ratio (TDR), Degree of Financial Leverage (DFL) and profitability ratios of Earnings per Share (EPS) and Returns on Equity (ROE) on the Financial Risk of the two industries. We employ a modified version of the Panel Regression Model used by Rahman (2017) to estimate the relationship. The study finds that there is a significant positive relationship between the capitalization ratios on the financial risk of Public Utility companies more than High-Tech companies and a substantial negative relationship between the profitability ratios and the financial risk of the former than the latter companies. This then spells an important insight for prospective investors with regards to the volatility of earnings of such companies.

Keywords: financial leverage, debt financing, conservative firms, aggressive firms

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
151 Prevention of Green Gentrification: The Case of the Sustainable Urban Policy in Paris

Authors: Elise Machline

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In the late 1980’s, sustainable urban development emerged in Europe. Sustainable neighborhoods are one attempt to implement sustainable urban energy planning in the city. So, for twenty years, projects of sustainable neighborhoods (or ‘eco-neighborhoods’) have emerged in Europe. Debates about sustainability no longer restrict it to environmental concerns (to limit greenhouse gas emissions), but rather extend to the economic and social dimensions. A growing number of empirical studies demonstrate that sustainable urbanism yield rental/sale premia, as well as higher occupancy rates and thus higher asset values. For example, European eco neighborhood projects usually focus on the middle to upper classes, given the costs involved in renting or buying the dwellings built in such projects. As a result sustainable residential buildings are not affordable and their construction tends to have a gentrifying effect. An increasing number of countries are institutionalizing green strategies for affordable housing. In France, the sustainable neighborhoods ‘ecoquartier’ must meet environmental performance criteria, have a potential for economic development and, provide social and functional diversity. The issue of social diversity trough the provision of affordable housing has emerged as a dimension of public housing policies. Thus, the ecoquartier residential buildings must be both energy efficient and affordable. Through the Parisian example our study considers how the concept of social diversity and other elements of sustainability are illustrated in the ecoquartiers and whether the authorities have been able to avoid gentrification when implementing a sustainable urban policy.

Keywords: sustainable neighborhoods, social diversity, social housing policies, green buildings

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150 AI-Driven Forecasting Models for Anticipating Oil Market Trends and Demand

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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149 A Method of Manufacturing Low Cost Utility Robots and Vehicles

Authors: Gregory E. Ofili

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Introduction and Objective: Climate change and a global economy mean farmers must adapt and gain access to affordable and reliable automation technologies. Key barriers include a lack of transportation, electricity, and internet service, coupled with costly enabling technologies and limited local subject matter expertise. Methodology/Approach: Resourcefulness is essential to mechanization on a farm. This runs contrary to the tech industry practice of planned obsolescence and disposal. One solution is plug-and-play hardware that allows farmer to assemble, repair, program, and service their own fleet of industrial machines. To that end, we developed a method of manufacturing low-cost utility robots, transport vehicles, and solar/wind energy harvesting systems, all running on an open-source Robot Operating System (ROS). We demonstrate this technology by fabricating a utility robot and an all-terrain (4X4) utility vehicle. Constructed of aluminum trusses and weighing just 40 pounds, yet capable of transporting 200 pounds of cargo, on sale for less than $2,000. Conclusions & Policy Implications: Electricity, internet, and automation are essential for productivity and competitiveness. With planned obsolescence, the priorities of technology suppliers are not aligned with the farmer’s realities. This patent-pending method of manufacturing low-cost industrial robots and electric vehicles has met its objective. To create low-cost machines, the farmer can assemble, program, and repair with basic hand tools.

Keywords: automation, robotics, utility robot, small-hold farm, robot operating system

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148 Ultrathin Tin-Silicalite 1 Zeolite Membrane in Ester Solvent Recovery

Authors: Kun Liang Ang, Eng Toon Saw, Wei He, Xuecheng Dong, Seeram Ramakrishna

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Ester solvents are widely used in pharmaceutical, printing and flavor industry due to their good miscibility, low toxicity, and high volatility. Through pervaporation, these ester solvents can be recovered from industrial wastewater. While metal-doped silicalite 1 zeolite membranes are commonly used in organic solvent recovery in the pervaporation process, these ceramic membranes suffer from low membrane permeation flux, mainly due to the high thickness of the metal-doped zeolite membrane. Herein, a simple method of fabricating an ultrathin tin-silicalite 1 membrane supported on alumina tube is reported. This ultrathin membrane is able to achieve high permeation flux and separation factor for an ester in a diluted aqueous solution. Nanosized tin-Silicalite 1 seeds which are smaller than 500nm has been formed through hydrothermal synthesis. The sn-Silicalite 1 seeds were then seeded onto alumina tube through dip coating, and the tin-Silicalite 1 membrane was then formed by hydrothermal synthesis in an autoclave through secondary growth method. Multiple membrane synthesis factors such as seed size, ceramic substrate surface pore size selection, and secondary growth conditions were studied for their effects on zeolite membrane growth. The microstructure, morphology and the membrane thickness of tin-Silicalite 1 zeolite membrane were examined. The membrane separation performance and stability will also be reported.

Keywords: ceramic membrane, pervaporation, solvent recovery, Sn-MFI zeolite

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
147 Quantification of E-Waste: A Case Study in Federal University of Espírito Santo, Brazil

Authors: Andressa S. T. Gomes, Luiza A. Souza, Luciana H. Yamane, Renato R. Siman

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The segregation of waste of electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) in the generating source, its characterization (quali-quantitative) and identification of origin, besides being integral parts of classification reports, are crucial steps to the success of its integrated management. The aim of this paper was to count WEEE generation at the Federal University of Espírito Santo (UFES), Brazil, as well as to define sources, temporary storage sites, main transportations routes and destinations, the most generated WEEE and its recycling potential. Quantification of WEEE generated at the University in the years between 2010 and 2015 was performed using data analysis provided by UFES’s sector of assets management. EEE and WEEE flow in the campuses information were obtained through questionnaires applied to the University workers. It was recorded 6028 WEEEs units of data processing equipment disposed by the university between 2010 and 2015. Among these waste, the most generated were CRT screens, desktops, keyboards and printers. Furthermore, it was observed that these WEEEs are temporarily stored in inappropriate places at the University campuses. In general, these WEEE units are donated to NGOs of the city, or sold through auctions (2010 and 2013). As for recycling potential, from the primary processing and further sale of printed circuit boards (PCB) from the computers, the amount collected could reach U$ 27,839.23. The results highlight the importance of a WEEE management policy at the University.

Keywords: solid waste, waste of electrical and electronic equipment, waste management, institutional solid waste generation

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146 Post-Structural Study of Gender in Shakespearean Othello from Butlerian Perspective

Authors: Muhammad Shakeel Rehman Hissam

Abstract:

This study aims at analyzing gender in Othello by applying Judith Butler’s Post-Structural theory of gender and gender performance. The analysis of the play provides us context by which we can examine what kinds of effects the drama have on understanding of the researchers regarding gender identity. The study sets out to examine that, is there any evidence or ground in Shakespearean selected work which leads to challenge the patriarchal taken for granted prescribed roles of gender? This would be the focal point in study of Othello that actions and performances of characters determine their gender identity rather than their sexuality. It argues that gender of Shakespearean characters has no constant, fixed and structural impression. On the contrary, they undergo consistent variations in their behavior and performance which impart fluidity and volatility to them. The focal point of the present study is Butler’s prominent work; Gender Trouble: Feminism and subversion of Identity and her post structural theory of Gender performativity as the theoretical underpinning of the text. It analyzes the selected play in Post-Structural gender perspective. The gender-centric plot of the play is riddled with fluidity of gender. The most fascinating aspect of the play is the transformations of genders on the basis of performances by different characters and through these transformations; gender identity is revealed and determined. The study reconstructs the accepted gender norms by challenging the traditional concept of gender that is based on sexual differences of characters.

Keywords: post structural, gender, performativity, socio-cultural gender norms, binaries, Othello, Butler, identity

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145 TACTICAL: Ram Image Retrieval in Linux Using Protected Mode Architecture’s Paging Technique

Authors: Sedat Aktas, Egemen Ulusoy, Remzi Yildirim

Abstract:

This article explains how to get a ram image from a computer with a Linux operating system and what steps should be followed while getting it. What we mean by taking a ram image is the process of dumping the physical memory instantly and writing it to a file. This process can be likened to taking a picture of everything in the computer’s memory at that moment. This process is very important for tools that analyze ram images. Volatility can be given as an example because before these tools can analyze ram, images must be taken. These tools are used extensively in the forensic world. Forensic, on the other hand, is a set of processes for digitally examining the information on any computer or server on behalf of official authorities. In this article, the protected mode architecture in the Linux operating system is examined, and the way to save the image sample of the kernel driver and system memory to disk is followed. Tables and access methods to be used in the operating system are examined based on the basic architecture of the operating system, and the most appropriate methods and application methods are transferred to the article. Since there is no article directly related to this study on Linux in the literature, it is aimed to contribute to the literature with this study on obtaining ram images. LIME can be mentioned as a similar tool, but there is no explanation about the memory dumping method of this tool. Considering the frequency of use of these tools, the contribution of the study in the field of forensic medicine has been the main motivation of the study due to the intense studies on ram image in the field of forensics.

Keywords: linux, paging, addressing, ram-image, memory dumping, kernel modules, forensic

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
144 Protecting Labor Rights in the Platform Economy: Legal Challenges and Innovative Explorations

Authors: Ruwen Pei

Abstract:

In the rapidly evolving landscape of the digital economy, platform employment has emerged as a transformative labor force, fundamentally altering the traditional paradigms of the employer-employee relationship. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the unique dynamics and intricate legal challenges associated with platform work, where workers often navigate precarious labor conditions without the robust safety nets typically afforded in traditional industries. It underscores the limitations of current labor regulations, particularly in addressing pressing concerns such as income volatility and disparate benefits. By drawing insights from diverse global case studies, this study emphasizes the compelling need for platform companies to shoulder their social welfare responsibilities, ensuring fair treatment and security for their workers. Moreover, it critically examines the profound influence of socio-cultural factors and educational awareness on the platform economy, shedding light on the complexities of this emerging labor landscape. Advocating for a harmonious equilibrium between flexibility and security, this paper calls for substantial legal reforms and innovative policy initiatives that can adapt to the evolving nature of work in the digital age. Finally, it anticipates forthcoming trends in the digital economy and platform labor relations, underscoring the significance of proactive adaptation to foster equitable and inclusive employment practices.

Keywords: platform employment, labor protections, social welfare, legal reforms, digital economy

Procedia PDF Downloads 41
143 Investigating Teachers’ Approaches in Teaching English and Students’ Communicative Ability in a Tertiary College

Authors: Adel Ben Mohamed

Abstract:

The widespread use of the English language around the world has pushed many countries to consider such a language as a top priority in their educational system. One of these countries is the Sultanate of Oman. In this frame, the Omani government has allocated huge budgets as well as resources in order to implement the English language in its education system. The importance of English is prevalent in Oman. This is clearly noticeable through remarkable signs. For instance, most of the official documents in Oman are in both Arabic (the mother tongue) or English. In addition to that, there is a mushroom of English language institutes all over the country. In 2020, there are over fourteen English language institutes and centers in Oman (esl base, 2020). Moreover, these days most of the Omani parents are sending their children for tuition to learn the English language. Hence, it is apparent that the Sultanate of Oman is giving a great value to the importance of English in attaining various goals. However, in the world of work, what is more, important today is fluency rather than accuracy. Therefore, many people go for communication English rather than technical English. For example, Oman Daily Observer newspaper published a job advertisement of a sale assistant on 23rd of November 2020, recommended that speaking very well English is a must to be hired for the position (Oman Observer, 2020). In line with this and because of the great importance of the English language in Oman, the ministry of higher education has placed much emphasis on this official foreign language. Therefore, in the Omani educational system, all post -secondary students must sit for one year in one of the higher education institutions as a General Foundation Programmes (GFP) prior to moving to their respective majors in diploma level. Accordingly, the implementation of any teaching approach is determined by different factors: some are directly linked to teachers while others are related to organizational variables.

Keywords: teaching approaches, communicative, ability, investigating

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142 Spatial and Seasonal Distribution of Persistent Organic Pollutant (Polychlorinated Biphenyl) Along the Course of Buffalo River, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Authors: Abdulrazaq Yahaya, Omobola Okoh, Anthony Okoh

Abstract:

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are generated from short emission or leakage from capacitors and electrical transformers, industrial chemicals wastewater discharge and careless disposal of wastes. They are toxic, semi-volatile compounds which can persist in the environment, hence classified as persistent organic pollutants. Their presence in the environmental matrices has become a global concern. In this study, we assessed the concentrations and distribution patterns of 19 polychlorinated biphenyls congeners (PCB 1, 5, 18, 31, 44, 52, 66, 87, 101, 110, 138, 141, 151, 153, 170, 180, 183, 187, and 206) at six sampling points in water along the course of Buffalo River, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Solvent extraction followed by sulphuric acid, potassium permanganate and silica gel cleanup were used in this study. The analysis was done with gas chromatography electron capture detector (GC-ECD). The results of the analysis of all the 19 PCBs congeners ranged from not detectable to 0.52 ppb and 2.5 ppb during summer and autumn periods respectively. These values are generally higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) maximum permissible limit. Their presence in the waterbody suggests an increase in anthropogenic activities over the seasons. In view of their volatility, the compounds are transportable over long distances by air currents away from their point of origin putting the health of the communities at risk, thus suggesting the need for strict regulations on the use as well as save disposal of this group of compounds in the communities.

Keywords: organic pollutants, polychlorinated biphenyls, pollution, solvent extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 295
141 Rate of Profit as a Pricing Benchmark in Islamic Banking to Create Financial Stability

Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

Abstract:

Although much research has been done on the pricing benchmark both in terms of fiqh or Islamic economic perspective, but no substitution for the concept of interest (rate of interest) up to now in the application of Islamic Banking because some of the jurists from the middle east even allow the use of a benchmark rate such as LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) as a measure of Islamic financial asset prices, so in other words, they equate the concept of rate of interest with the concept of rate of profit, which is the core reason (raison detre) for the replacement of usury as instructed in the Quran. This study aims to find the concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in Islamic Banking and Capital market. Rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in Islamic Bond Market in Capital Market.

Keywords: Rate of profit, economic justice, stability, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth

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140 Approach for Updating a Digital Factory Model by Photogrammetry

Authors: R. Hellmuth, F. Wehner

Abstract:

Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the construction of a factory. The requirements for factory planning and the building of a factory have changed in recent years. Regular restructuring is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A digital factory model is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable tool. Short-term rescheduling can no longer be handled by on-site inspections and manual measurements. The tight time schedules require up-to-date planning models. Due to the high adaptation rate of factories described above, a methodology for rescheduling factories on the basis of a modern digital factory twin is conceived and designed for practical application in factory restructuring projects. The focus is on rebuild processes. The aim is to keep the planning basis (digital factory model) for conversions within a factory up to date. This requires the application of a methodology that reduces the deficits of existing approaches. The aim is to show how a digital factory model can be kept up to date during ongoing factory operation. A method based on photogrammetry technology is presented. The focus is on developing a simple and cost-effective solution to track the many changes that occur in a factory building during operation. The method is preceded by a hardware and software comparison to identify the most economical and fastest variant. 

Keywords: digital factory model, photogrammetry, factory planning, restructuring

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
139 Economics of Fish-Plantain Integrated Farm Enterprise in Southern Nigeria

Authors: S. O. Obasa, J. A. Soaga, O. I. Afolabi, N. A. Bamidele, O. E. Babalola

Abstract:

Attempt to improve the income of the rural population is a welcome development in Nigeria. Integrated fish-crop farming has been suggested as a means of raising farm income, reducing wastage and mitigating the risk component in production through the complementarity gain. A feeding trial was carried out to investigate the replacement of maize with fermented unripe plantain (Musa paradisiaca) peel meal in the diet of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus. The economics of the integrated enterprise was assessed using budgetary analysis techniques. The analysis incorporated the material and labour costs as well as the returns from sale of matured fish and plantain. A total of 60 fingerlings of Nile tilapia (1.70±0.1 g) were stocked at 10 per plastic tank. Two iso-nitrogenous diets containing 35% crude protein in which maize meal was replaced by fermented unripe plantain peel meal at 0% (FUP0/Control diet), and 100% (FUP100) were formulated and prepared. The fingerlings were fed at 5% body weight per day for 56 days. Lowest feed conversion ratio of 1.39 in fish fed diet FUP100 was not significantly different (P > 0.05) from the highest 1.42 of fish fed the Control diet. The highest percentage profit of 88.85% in fish fed diet FUP100 was significantly higher than 66.68% in fish fed diet FUP0, while the profit index of 1.89 in fish fed diet FUP100 was significantly different from 1.67 in fish fed diet FUP0. Therefore, fermented unripe plantain peel meal can completely replace maize in the diet of O. niloticus fingerlings. Profitability assessment shows that the net income from the integration was ₦ 463,000 per hectare and the integration resulted to an increase of ₦ 87,750.00 representing a 12.2% increase than in separate production.

Keywords: fish-crop, income, Nile tilapia, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 473