Search results for: rainfall event on LV

Authors: Odejayi Adedayo Olugbenga, Aina Adebisi

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Weather variables (rainfall and temperature) affect the diversity and abundance of both fauna and flora species. This study compared the weather variables with spider abundance in two ecological zones of Ogun State, Nigeria namely Ago-iwoye (Rainforest) in the Ijebu axis and Aiyetoro (Derived Savannah) in the Yewa axis. Seven study sites chosen by Simple Random Sampling in each ecosystem were used for the study. In each sampling area, a 60 m x 120 m land area was marked and sampled, spider collection techniques were; hand picking, use of sweep netting, and Pitfall trap. Adult spiders were identified to the species level. Species richness was estimated by a non-parametric species estimator while the diversity of spider species was assessed by Simpson Diversity Index and Species Richness by One-way Analysis of Variance. Results revealed that spiders were more abundant in rainforest zones than in derived savannah ecosystems. However, the pattern of spider abundance in rainforest zone and residential areas were similar. During high temperatures, the activities of spiders tended to increase according to this study. In contrast, results showed that there was a negative correlation between rainfall and spider species abundance in addition to a negative and weak correlation between rainfall and species richness. It was concluded that heavy downpour has lethal effects on both immature and sometimes matured spiders, which could lead to the extinction of some unknown species of spiders. Tree planting should be encouraged, as this shelters the spider.

Keywords: spider, abundance, species richness, species diversity

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Authors: Nitin Bhagat

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Drought is a global phenomenon. It has a huge impact on agriculture and allied sector activities. Agriculture plays a substantial role in the economy of developing countries, which mainly depends on rainfall. The present study illustrates the drought conditions in Masurdi village of Latur district in the Marathwada region, Maharashtra. This paper is based on both primary as well as secondary data sources. The multistage sample method was used for primary data collection. The 100 households sample survey data has been collected from the village through a semi-structured questionnaire. The crop production data is collected from the Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra. The rainfall data is obtained from the Department of Revenue, Office of Divisional Commissioner, Aurangabad for the period from 1988 to 2018. This paper examines the severity of drought consequences of the 2015 drought on domestic water supply, crop production, and the effect on children's schooling, livestock assets, bank credit, and migration. The study also analyzed climate variables' impact on the Latur district's total food grain production for 19 years from 2000 to 2018. This study applied multiple regression analysis to check the relationship between climatic variables and the Latur district's total food grain production. The climate variables are annual rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The study considered that climatic variables are independent variables and total food grain as the dependent variable. It shows there is a significant relationship between rainfall and maximum temperature. The study also calculated rainfall deviations to find out the drought and normal years. According to drought manual 2016, the rainfall deviation calculated using the following formula. RF dev = {(RFi – RFn) / RFn}*100.Approximately 27.43 % of the workforce migrated from rural to urban areas for searching jobs, and crop production decreased tremendously due to inadequate rainfall in the drought year 2015. Many farm and non-farm labor, some marginal and small cultivators, migrated from rural to urban areas (like Pune, Mumbai, and Western Maharashtra).About 48 % of the households' children faced education difficulties; in the drought period, children were not going to school. They left their school and joined to bring water with their mother and fathers, sometimes they fetched water on their head or using a bicycle, near about 2 km from the village. In their school-going days, drinking water was not available in their schools, so the government declared holidays early in the academic education year 2015-16 compared to another academic year. Some college and 10th class students left their education due to financial problems. Many households benefited from state government schemes, like drought subsidies, crop insurance, and bank loans. Out of 100 households, about 50 (50 %) have obtained financial support from the state government’s subsidy scheme, 58 ( 58 %) have got crop insurance, and 41(41 %) irrigated households have got bank loans from national banks; besides that, only two families have obtained loans from their relatives and moneylenders.

Keywords: agriculture, drought, household, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Taha Benarbia, Kay W. Axhausen, Anugrah Ilahi

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Electric car sharing system as ecologic transportation increasing in the world. The complexity of managing electric car sharing systems, especially one-way trips and battery autonomy have direct influence to on supply and demand of system. One must be able to precisely model the demand and supply of these systems to better operate electric car sharing and estimate its effect on mobility management and the accessibility that it provides in urban areas. In this context, our work focus to develop performances optimization model of the system based on discrete event simulation and stochastic Petri net. The objective is to search optimal decisions and management parameters of the system in order to fulfil at best demand while minimizing undesirable situations. In this paper, we present new model of electric cars sharing with relocation based on monitoring system. The proposed approach also help to precise the influence of battery charging level on the behaviour of system as important decision parameter of this complex and dynamical system.

Keywords: electric car-sharing systems, smart mobility, Petri nets modelling, discrete event simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Mpaphi Major

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Soil erosion is becoming an important aspect of land degradation. Therefore it is of great consideration to note any factor that may escalate the rate of soil erosion in our arable land. There exist 3 main driving forces in soil erosion which are rainfall, wind and land use of which in this project only rainfall and land use will be looked at. With the increase in world population at an alarming rate, the demand for food production is expected to increase which will in turn lead to more land being converted from forests to agricultural use of which very few of it are now fertile. In our country Botswana, the rate of crop production is decreasing due to the wearing away of the fertile top soil and poor arable land management. As a result, some studies on the rate of soil loss and farm management practices should be conducted so that best soil and water conservation practices should be employed and hence reduce the risk of soil loss and increase the rate of crop production and yield. The Soil loss estimation model for Southern Africa (SLEMSA) will be used to estimate the rate of soil loss in some selected arable farms within the Palapye watershed and some field observations will be made to determine the management practices used and their impact on the arable land. Upon observations it have been found that many arable fields have been exposed to soil erosion, of which the affected parts are no longer suitable for any crop production unless the land areas are modified. Improper land practices such as ploughing along the slope and land cultivation practices were observed. As a result farmers need to be educated on best conservation practices that can be used to manage their arable land hence reduced risk of soil erosion and improved crop production.

Keywords: soil and water conservation, soil erosion, SLEMSA, land degradation

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Authors: Faustina Masocha, Vusani Moyo

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For decades, dividend announcements have been presumed to contain important signals about the future prospects of companies. Similarly, the same has been presumed about management earnings announcements. Despite both dividend and earnings announcements being considered informative, a number of researchers questioned their credibility and found both to contain short-term signals. Pertaining to dividend announcements, some authors argued that although they might contain important information that can result in changes in share prices, which consequently results in the accumulation of abnormal returns, their degree of informativeness is less compared to other signaling tools such as earnings announcements. Yet, this claim in favor has been refuted by other researchers who found the effect of earnings to be transitory and of little value to shareholders as indicated by the little abnormal returns earned during the period surrounding earnings announcements. Considering the above, it is apparent that both dividends and earnings have been hypothesized to have a signaling impact. This prompts one to question which between these two signaling tools is more informative. To answer this question, two follow-up questions were asked. The first question sought to determine the event which results in the most effect on share prices, while the second question focused on the event that influenced trading volume the most. To answer the first question and evaluate the effect that each of these events had on share prices, an event study methodology was employed on a sample made up of the top 10 JSE-listed companies for data collected from 2012 to 2019 to determine if shareholders gained abnormal returns (ARs) during announcement dates. The event that resulted in the most persistent and highest amount of ARs was considered to be more informative. Looking at the second follow-up question, an investigation was conducted to determine if either dividends or earnings announcements influenced trading patterns, resulting in abnormal trading volumes (ATV) around announcement time. The event that resulted in the most ATV was considered more informative. Using an estimation period of 20 days and an event window of 21 days, and hypothesis testing, it was found that announcements pertaining to the increase of earnings resulted in the most ARs, Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) and had a lasting effect in comparison to dividend announcements whose effect lasted until day +3. This solidifies some empirical arguments that the signaling effect of dividends has become diminishing. It was also found that when reported earnings declined in comparison to the previous period, there was an increase in trading volume, resulting in ATV. Although dividend announcements did result in abnormal returns, they were lesser than those acquired during earnings announcements which refutes a number of theoretical and empirical arguments that found dividends to be more informative than earnings announcements.

Keywords: dividend signaling, event study methodology, information content of earnings, signaling theory

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Authors: Nien-Ming Hong, Kuei-Fang Huang

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Climate change is an important issue in future, which seriously affects water resources for a long term planning and management. Flood assessment is highly related with climate and land use. Increasing rainfall and urbanization will induce the inundated area in future. For adapting the impacts of climate change, a land use planning is a good strategy for reducing flood damage. The study is to build a trade-off process with different land use types. The Ta-Liao watershed is the study area with three types of land uses that are build-up, farm and forest. The build-up area is concentrated in the downstream of the watershed. Different rainfall amounts are applied for assessing the land use in 1996, 2005 and 2013. The adapted strategies are based on retarding the development of urban and a trade-off process. When a land changes from farm area to built-up area in downstream, this study is to search for a farm area and change it to forest/grass area or building a retention area in the upstream. For assessing the effects of the strategy, the inundation area is simulated by the Flo-2D model with different rainfall conditions and land uses. The results show inundation maps of several cases with land use change planning. The results also show the trade-off strategies and retention areas can decrease the inundated area and divide the inundated area, which are better than retarding urban development. The land use change is usually non-reverse and the planning should be constructed before the climate change.

Keywords: climate change, land use change, flood risk assessment, land use planning

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

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The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principal parameters used for analysis such as land cover land use, rainfall values, characteristic of soil and digital elevation model (DEM). The combination of intense rainfall and severe monsoons is increasing due to global climate change. Landslide occurrences rapidly increase during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data are used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research objectives, the methods are described in this study: setup and calibration of the SINMAP model, sensitivity of the SINMAP model, geotechnical laboratory, landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. During 1954-2012 period, is used for the baseline of rainfall data at the present calibration. The climate change in Thailand, the future of climate scenarios are simulated by spatial and temporal scales. The precipitation impact is need to predict for the climate future, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change between latitude 16o 26’ and 18o 37’ north and between longitude 98o 52’ and 103o 05’ east by SDSM software. The research allows the mapping of risk parameters for landslide dynamics, and indicates the spatial and time trends of landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change based on GCM scenarios A2 and B2 from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study area in Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. Finally, the landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km2 ) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province.

Keywords: landslide hazard, GIS, slope stability index (SINMAP), landslides, Thailand

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Authors: Marie-Eve Joret, Marijn Van Vliet, Flavio Camarrone, Marc M. Van Hulle

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Event-related potentials (ERPs) provide evidence that the human brain can process and understand music at a pre-attentive level. Music-specific ERPs include the Early Right Anterior Negativity (ERAN) and a late Negativity (N5). This study aims to further investigate this issue using two types of syntactic manipulations in music: mild violations, containing no out-of-key tones and strong violations, containing out-of-key tones. We will examine whether both manipulations will elicit the same ERPs.

Keywords: ERAN ERPs, Music, N5, P3, ERPs, Music, N5 component, P3 component

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: time series modelling, ARIMA model, river runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method

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Authors: S. L. Tulasi Devi, Shivam Azad

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The primary objective of this study is to analyze the impact of green bond issuance on the stock prices of respective Indian companies. An event study methodology has been employed to study the effect of green bond issuance. For in-depth study and analysis, this paper used different window frames, including 15-15 days, 10-10 days, 7-7days, 6-6 days, and 5-5 days. Further, for better clarity, this paper also used an uneven window period of 7-5 days. The period of study covered all the companies which issued green bonds during the period of 2017-2022; Adani Green Energy, State Bank of India, Power Finance Corporation, Jain Irrigation, and Rural Electrification Corporation, except Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency and Indian Railway Finance Corporation, because of data unavailability. The paper used all three event study methods as discussed in earlier literature; 1) constant return model, 2) market-adjusted model, and 3) capital asset pricing model. For the fruitful comparison between results, the study considered cumulative average return (CAR) and buy and hold average return (BHAR) methodology. For checking the statistical significance, a two-tailed t-statistic has been used. All the statistical calculations have been performed in Microsoft Excel 2016. The study found that all other companies have shown positive returns on the event day except for the State Bank of India. The results demonstrated that constant return model outperformed compared to the market-adjusted model and CAPM. The p-value derived from all the methods has shown an almost insignificant impact of the issuance of green bonds on the stock prices of respective companies. The overall analysis states that there’s not much improvement in the market efficiency of the Indian Stock Markets.

Keywords: green bonds, event study methodology, constant return model, market-adjusted model, CAPM

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Authors: John Allbutt, Andrew Murray, Jonathan Ling, Thomas M. Heffernan

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Ultra-endurance events place unique physical and psychological pressures on participants. In this study, we examined the psychologically challenging aspects of taking part in a 3000 mile transatlantic rowing race using a qualitative approach. To date, more people have been into space than have rowed an ocean and only one psychological study has been conducted on this experience which had a specific research focus. The current study was a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Participants were an opportunity sample of seven competitors from a recent ocean rowing race. Participants were asked about the psychological aspects of the event after it had finished. The data were analysed using thematic analysis. Several themes emerged from the analysis. These related to: 1) preparation; 2) bodily aches/pains, 3) race setbacks; 4) boat conditions; 5) interpersonal factors and communication; 6) strategies for managing stress and interpersonal tensions. While participants were generally very positive about the event, the analysis showed that they experienced significant psychological challenges during their voyage. Competitors paid considerable attention to preparing for the physical challenges of the event. However, not all prospective competitors gave the same time to preparing for psychological factors or were aware how they might play out during their voyage. All Atlantic rowing crews should be aware of the psychological challenges they face, and have strategies in place to help cope with the psychological strain of taking part.

Keywords: confinement experiences, ocean rowing, stress, ultra-endurance sport

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Authors: Xenia I. Loizidou, Anthi Gavriel, Demetra Petsa

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The tourism industry is a significant contributor to Cyprus's Gross Domestic Product. However, as the main tourism product is 'sun and sea', the industry is significantly unsustainable, with the majority of tourists (approx. 90%) concentrated in coastal areas over a short period of time, causing negative environmental, social, and economic impacts. The newly established Cypriot Deputy Ministry of Tourism aims to diversify the Cypriot tourism industry by focusing on the development of niche tourism products that will elongate the touristic season and divert visitors to inland mountainous and rural areas. In this respect, conference and event tourism is an ideal product for development. The current paper presents the results of fieldwork carried out between January and March 2020 in Cyprus, with key stakeholders within the conference and event tourism sector. The work consisted of a survey and semi-structured interviews to determine the current level of sustainability within the conference tourism sector, the main barriers to the sector's development, as well as key stakeholder insights and suggestions for measures to improve the sector's sustainability. The results suggest that there is a general lack of understanding of the negative economic, environmental and social impacts associated with the organization of conventional conferences and events, compared to the positive impacts of sustainable conferences/events. There also seems to be a lack of awareness of actions that can be taken to make the conference and event sector more sustainable. Incentives, marketing, branding, and training are identified as some of the effective means to improve the sustainability of the Cypriot conference and event sector, as is the development of country-wide sustainability policy and a review and enforcement of national waste management legislation. The research outputs will be utilized for the development of targeted toolkits, training, and awareness-raising activities that will drive Cyprus towards becoming an international sustainable tourism destination.

Keywords: conference, event, sustainability, tourism

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Authors: Amir Hamzeh Haghiabi

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Water resource management is of global significance as it plays a key role in the socioeconomic development of all nations. On account of the fact that Iran is situated in a highly pressurized belt in the world, precipitation is limited, so that the average annual precipitation in the country is about 250 mm, only about one third to one quarter of the world average for rainfall. Karkheh basin is located in the semiarid and arid regions of Western Iran, an area with severe water scarcity. 70 % of rainfall is directly evaporated. The potential annual evaporation of the southern and northern regions is 3,600 mm 1,800 mm, respectively. In this paper, Some aspects of water resources management for this region, the specifications of the Karkheh reservoir dam & hydroelectric power plant as the biggest dam in history of Iran with total volume of reservoir 7.3 Bm3 are illustrated. Also the situation of water availability in the basin, surface and groundwater potential are considered.

Keywords: Iran, water availability, water resources, Zagros

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Authors: Fisayo G. Ojo, Shamala K. Subramaniam, Zuriati Ahmad Zukarnain

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As technology is advancing and wireless applications are becoming dependable sources, while the physical layer of the applications are been embedded into tiny layer, so the more the problem on energy efficiency and consumption. This paper reviews works done in recent years in wireless applications and distributed computing, we discovered that applications are becoming dependable, and resource allocation sharing with other applications in distributed computing. Applications embedded in distributed system are suffering from power stability and efficiency. In the reviews, we also prove that discrete event simulation has been left behind untouched and not been adapted into distributed system as a simulation technique in scheduling of each event that took place in the development of distributed computing applications. We shed more lights on some researcher proposed techniques and results in our reviews to prove the unsatisfactory results, and to show that more work still have to be done on issues of energy efficiency in wireless applications, and congestion in distributed computing.

Keywords: discrete event simulation (DES), distributed computing, energy efficiency (EE), internet of things (IOT), quality of service (QOS), user equipment (UE), wireless mesh network (WMN), wireless sensor network (wsn), worldwide interoperability for microwave access x (WiMAX)

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Mohd Khairul Bazli Mohd Aziz, Fadhilah Yusof, Zulkifli Yusop, Zalina Mohd Daud, Mohammad Afif Kasno

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Recent developed rainfall network design techniques have been discussed and compared by many researchers worldwide due to the demand of acquiring higher levels of accuracy from collected data. In many studies, rain-gauge networks are designed to provide good estimation for areal rainfall and for flood modelling and prediction. In a certain study, even using lumped models for flood forecasting, a proper gauge network can significantly improve the results. Therefore existing rainfall network in Johor must be optimized and redesigned in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The well-known geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) that is combined with simulated annealing was used as an algorithm of optimization in this study to obtain the optimal number and locations of the rain gauges. Rain gauge network structure is not only dependent on the station density; station location also plays an important role in determining whether information is acquired accurately. The existing network of 84 rain gauges in Johor is optimized and redesigned by using rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, temperature and wind speed data during monsoon season (November – February) for the period of 1975 – 2008. Three different semivariogram models which are Spherical, Gaussian and Exponential were used and their performances were also compared in this study. Cross validation technique was applied to compute the errors and the result showed that exponential model is the best semivariogram. It was found that the proposed method was satisfied by a network of 64 rain gauges with the minimum estimated variance and 20 of the existing ones were removed and relocated. An existing network may consist of redundant stations that may make little or no contribution to the network performance for providing quality data. Therefore, two different cases were considered in this study. The first case considered the removed stations that were optimally relocated into new locations to investigate their influence in the calculated estimated variance and the second case explored the possibility to relocate all 84 existing stations into new locations to determine the optimal position. The relocations of the stations in both cases have shown that the new optimal locations have managed to reduce the estimated variance and it has proven that locations played an important role in determining the optimal network.

Keywords: geostatistics, simulated annealing, semivariogram, optimization

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Authors: Yin Yuanling

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A Deep Feedback Recurrent Neural Network (DFRNN) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) are designed to address the problem of low accuracy of traditional relationship extraction models. This method combines a deep feedback-based recurrent neural network (DFRNN) with a bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) approach. The method combines DFRNN, which extracts local features of text based on deep feedback recurrent mechanism, BiLSTM, which better extracts global features of text, and Self-Attention, which extracts semantic information. Experiments show that the method achieves an F1 value of 76.69% on the CEC dataset, which is 0.0652 better than the BiLSTM+Self-ATT model, thus optimizing the performance of the deep learning method in the event relationship extraction task.

Keywords: event relations, deep learning, DFRNN models, bi-directional long and short-term memory networks

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Authors: Fiona Jensen, Barb Goodwin, Nancy Kleiman, Rhonda Usunier

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Background: Clinical simulation is now a common component in many health profession curricula in preparation for clinical practice. In the Rady Faculty of Health Sciences (RFHS) college leads in simulation and interprofessional (IP) education, planned an eight hour simulated hospital day shift, where seventy students from six health professions across two campuses, learned with each other in a safe, realistic environment. Learning about interprofessional collaboration, an expected competency for many health professions upon graduation, was a primary focus of the simulation event. Method: Faculty representatives from the Colleges of Nursing, Medicine, Pharmacy and Rehabilitation Sciences (Physical Therapy, Occupation Therapy, Respiratory Therapy) and Pharmacy worked together to plan the IP event in a simulation facility in the College of Nursing. Each college provided a faculty mentor to guide the same profession students. Students were placed in interprofessional teams consisting of a nurse, physician, pharmacist, and then sharing respiratory, occupational, and physical therapists across the team depending on the needs of the patients. Eight patient scenarios were role played by health profession students, who had been provided with their patient’s story shortly before the event. Each team was guided by a facilitator. Results and Outcomes: On the morning of the event, all students gathered in a large group to meet mentors and facilitators and have a brief overview of the six competencies for effective collaboration and the session objectives. The students assuming their same profession roles were provided with their patient’s chart at the beginning of the shift, met with their team, and then completed professional specific assessments. Shortly into the shift, IP team rounds began, facilitated by the team facilitator. During the shift, each patient role-played a spontaneous health incident, which required collaboration between the IP team members for assessment and management. The afternoon concluded with team rounds, a collaborative management plan, and a facilitated de-brief. Conclusions: During the de-brief sessions, students responded to set questions related to the session learning objectives and expressed many positive learning moments. We believe that we have a sustainable simulation IP collaborative learning opportunity, which can be embedded into curricula, and has the capacity to grow to include more health profession faculties and students. Opportunities are being explored in the RFHS at the administrative level, to offer this event more frequently in the academic year to reach more students. In addition, a formally structured event evaluation tool would provide important feedback and inform the qualitative feedback to event organizers and the colleges about the significance of the simulation event to student learning.

Keywords: simulation, collaboration, teams, interprofessional

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Authors: Guelfo Carbone

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The paper focuses on Heidegger’s 1919-1920 early research in order to point out his hermeneutical phenomenology of the life-world, arguing that the concept of world (Welt) is the main philosophical trigger for the phenomenology of factical life. Accordingly, the argument of the paper is twofold: First, the phenomenological hermeneutics of facticity is preceded both chronologically and philosophically by an original phenomenological investigation of the life-world, in which the world is construed as the context of the givenness of life. Second, the phenomenology of life-world anticipates the question of being (Seinsfrage), but it also follows it, once this latter is shattered, the question of world as event remaining at the very core of Heidegger’s last meditations on the dominion of technology and the post-metaphysical abode of human beings on earth.

Keywords: Heidegger, hermeneutics, life-world, phenomenology

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Authors: Aboubakr Gambo, Adama Diaw, Tobias Wunscher

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This study attempts to identify factors affecting rural households’ resilience to food insecurity in Niger. For this, we first create a resilience index by using Principal Component Analysis on the following five variables at the household level: income, food expenditure, duration of grain held in stock, livestock in Tropical Livestock Units and number of farms exploited and second apply Structural Equation Modelling to identify the determinants. Data from the 2010 National Survey on Households’ Vulnerability to Food Insecurity done by the National Institute of Statistics is used. The study shows that asset and social safety nets indicators are significant and have a positive impact on households’ resilience. Climate change approximated by long-term mean rainfall has a negative and significant effect on households’ resilience to food insecurity. The results indicate that to strengthen households’ resilience to food insecurity, there is a need to increase assistance to households through social safety nets and to help them gather more resources in order to acquire more assets. Furthermore, early warning of climatic events could alert households especially farmers to be prepared and avoid important losses that they experience anytime an uneven climatic event occur.

Keywords: food insecurity, principal component analysis, structural equation modelling, resilience

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Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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Authors: Balogun R. Ayodeji, Adefisan E. Adesanya, Adeyewa Z. Debo, E. C. Okogbue

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The need to investigate diurnal weather circles in West Africa is coined in the fact that complex interactions often results from diurnal weather patterns. This study investigates diurnal circles of wind, rainfall and convective properties using six (6) hour interval data from the ERA-Interim and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The seven distinct zones, used in this work and classified as rainforest (west-coast, dry, Nigeria-Cameroon), Savannah (Nigeria, and Central Africa and South Sudan (CASS)), Sudano-Sahel, and Sahel, were clearly indicated by the rainfall pattern in each zones. Results showed that the land‐ocean warming contrast was more strongly sensitive to seasonal cycle and has been very weak during March-May (MAM) but clearly spelt out during June-September (JJAS). Dipoles of wind convergence/divergence and wet/dry precipitation, between CASS and Nigeria Savannah zones, were identified in morning and evening hours of MAM, whereas distinct night and day anomaly, in the same location of CASS, were found to be consistent during the JJAS season. Diurnal variation of convective properties showed that stratiform precipitation, due to the extremely low occurrence of flashcount climatology, was dominant during morning hours for both MAM and JJAS than other periods of the day. On the other hand, diurnal variation of the system sizes showed that small system sizes were most dominant during the day time periods for both MAM and JJAS, whereas larger system sizes were frequent during the evening, night, and morning hours. The locations of flashcount and system sizes agreed with earlier results that morning and day-time hours were dominated by stratiform precipitation and small system sizes respectively. Most results clearly showed that the eastern locations of Sudano and Sahel were consistently dry because rainfall and precipitation features were predominantly few. System sizes greater than or equal to 800 km² were found in the western axis of the Sudano and Sahel zones, whereas the eastern axis, particularly in the Sahel zone, had minimal occurrences of small/large system sizes. From the results of locations of extreme systems, flashcount greater than 275 in one single system was never observed during the morning (6Z) diurnal, whereas, the evening (18Z) diurnal had the most frequent cases (at least 8) of flashcount exceeding 275 in one single system. Results presented had shown the importance of diurnal variation in understanding precipitation, flashcount, system sizes patterns at diurnal scales, and understanding land-ocean contrast, precipitation, and wind field anomaly at diurnal scales.

Keywords: convective properties, diurnal circle, flashcount, system sizes

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Authors: Fazli Rahim Shinwari, Ulrich Dittmer

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Like many megacities around the world, Kabul is facing severe problems due to the rising frequency of urban flooding. Since 2001, Kabul is experiencing rapid population growth because of the repatriation of refugees and internal migration. Due to unplanned development, green areas inside city and hilly areas within and around the city are converted into new housing towns that had increased runoff. Trenches along the roadside comprise the unplanned drainage network of the city that drains the combined sewer flow. In rainy season overflow occurs, and after streets become dry, the dust particles contaminate the air which is a major cause of air pollution in Kabul city. In this study, a stormwater management model is introduced as a basis for a systematic approach to urban drainage planning in Kabul. For this purpose, Kabul city is delineated into 8 watersheds with the help of one-meter resolution LIDAR DEM. Storm, water management model, is developed for Wazirabad catchment by using available data and literature values. Due to lack of long term metrological data, the model is only run for hourly rainfall data of a rain event that occurred in April 2016. The rain event from 1st to 3rd April with maximum intensity of 3mm/hr caused huge flooding in Wazirabad Catchment of Kabul City. Model-estimated flooding at some points of the catchment as an actual measurement of flooding was not possible; results were compared with information obtained from local people, Kabul Municipality and Capital Region Independent Development Authority. The model helped to identify areas where flooding occurred because of less capacity of drainage system and areas where the main reason for flooding is due to blockage in the drainage canals. The model was used for further analysis to find a sustainable solution to the problem. The option to construct new canals was analyzed, and two new canals were proposed that will reduce the flooding frequency in Wazirabad catchment of Kabul city. By developing the methodology to develop a stormwater management model from digital data and information, the study had fulfilled the primary objective, and similar methodology can be used for other catchments of Kabul city to prepare an emergency and long-term plan for drainage system of Kabul city.

Keywords: urban hydrology, storm water management, modeling, SWMM, GEO-SWMM, GIS, identification of flood vulnerable areas, urban flooding analysis, sustainable urban drainage

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Authors: Fernando Ojedo, Alejandro Alvarez, Pedro Macizo

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In the present study, we explored electrophysiological correlates of Arabic digits naming to determine semantic processing of numbers. Participants named Arabic digits grouped by category or intermixed with exemplars of other semantic categories while the N400 event-related potential was examined. Around 350-450 ms after the presentation of Arabic digits, brain waves were more positive in anterior regions and more negative in posterior regions when stimuli were grouped by category relative to the mixed condition. Contrary to what was found in other studies, electrophysiological results suggested that the production of numerals involved semantic mediation.

Keywords: Arabic digit naming, event-related potentials, semantic processing, number production

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Authors: Birgit A. A. Solem, Kristin Bentsen

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Scholarly attention in entrepreneurship is currently directed towards understanding entrepreneurial venture creation as a process -the journey of new economic activities from nonexistence to existence often studied through flow- or network models. To complement existing research on entrepreneurial venture creation with more interactivity-based research of organized activities, this study examines two pop-up stores as anchor events involving on-site activities of fifteen participating entrepreneurs launching their new ventures. The pop-up stores were arranged in two middle-sized Norwegian cities and contained different brand stores that brought together actors of sub-networks and communities executing venture creation activities. The pop-up stores became on-site arenas for the entrepreneurs to create, maintain, and rejuvenate their networks, at the same time as becoming venues for temporal coordination of activities involving existing and potential customers in their venture creation. In this work, we apply a conceptual framework based on frequently addressed dilemmas within entrepreneurship theory (discovery/creation, causation/effectuation) to further shed light on the broad aspect of on-site anchor event activities and their venture creation outcomes. The dilemma-based concepts are applied as an analytic toolkit to pursue answers regarding the nature of anchor event activities typically found within entrepreneurial venture creation and how these anchor event activities affect entrepreneurial venture creation outcomes. Our study combines researcher participation with 200 hours of observation and twenty in-depth interviews. Data analysis followed established guidelines for hermeneutic analysis and was intimately intertwined with ongoing data collection. Data was coded and categorized in NVivo 12 software, and iterated several times as patterns were steadily developing. Our findings suggest that core anchor event activities typically found within entrepreneurial venture creation are; a concept- and product experimentation with visitors, arrangements to socialize (evening specials, auctions, and exhibitions), store-in-store concepts, arranged meeting places for peers and close connection with municipality and property owners. Further, this work points to four main entrepreneurial venture creation outcomes derived from the core anchor event activities; (1) venture attention, (2) venture idea-realization, (3) venture collaboration, and (4) venture extension. Our findings show that, depending on which anchor event activities are applied, the outcomes vary. Theoretically, this study offers two main implications. First, anchor event activities are both discovered and created, following the logic of causation, at the same time as being experimental, based on “learning by doing” principles of effectuation during the execution. Second, our research enriches prior studies on venture creation as a process. In this work, entrepreneurial venture creation activities and outcomes are understood through pop-up stores as on-site anchor event arenas, particularly suitable for interactivity-based research requested by the entrepreneurship field. This study also reveals important managerial implications, such as that entrepreneurs should allow themselves to find creative physical venture creation arenas (e.g., pop-up stores, showrooms), as well as collaborate with partners when discovering and creating concepts and activities based on new ideas. In this way, they allow themselves to both strategically plan for- and continually experiment with their venture.

Keywords: anchor event, interactivity-based research, pop-up store, entrepreneurial venture creation

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Authors: Zita Fomukong Andam

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The decision on where to host sport events does not depend on the national politicians or specific international sport event bodies but also involves the residents of the hosting country. Sport tourism is one of the fast growing industries in the world. Cameroonians consider sport as a point of unity and growth within the country. It has a huge variety of sporting activities like swimming, canoe racing, tug of war and most especially soccer well known as football. The football national team made an impact in 1990 at the FIFA world cup. They also won the African Nations Cup five times. Being the winner of the 2017 African Cup of Nations, they are to host the 2019 African cup of Nations. The purpose of this research is to analyse the impacts of sport tourism event in Cameroon and specifically examine how this event influences the residents. A deep research discourse conducted with randomly selected 300 inbound residents and 200 Cameroonian residents living abroad. Survey questionnaires, interviews and direct observations were carried out as a method of collecting data. The results showed that sport events brings a lot of prestige and honor to the country; generate revenues to the country’s economy and particularly to the local businesses. On the other hand, the results showed that the local residents lose their intimacy, privacy, and their daily life routine is affected. In addition to this, they face negative social inequalities and environmental impacts. Understanding these results the national government and international bodies might be able to contribute to future studies and propose efficient measures to maximize the positive benefits and minimize the negative benefits.

Keywords: sport Tourism, economic impact, resident altitude, african Cup of nations

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Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Sonia

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The agriculture sector is deemed more vulnerable to climate change as its variation can directly affect the crop’s productivity, but farmers’ adaptation strategies play a vital role in climate change-agriculture relationship. Therefore, this research has been undertaken to assess the Climate Change impact on wheat productivity and farmers’ adaptability strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. The panel dataset was analyzed to gauge the impact of changing climate variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on wheat productivity from 1985 to 2015. Amid the study period, the fixed effect estimates confirmed an inverse relationship of temperature and rainfall on the wheat yield. The impact of temperature is observed to be detrimental as compared to the rainfall, causing 0.07 units reduction in the production of wheat with 1C upsurge in temperature. On the flip side, humidity revealed a positive association with the wheat productivity by confirming that high humidity could be beneficial to the production of the crop over time. Thus, this study ensures significant nexus between agricultural production and climatic parameters. However, the farming community in the underlying study area has limited knowledge about the adaptation strategies to lessen the detrimental impact of changing climate on crop yield. It is recommended that farmers should be well equipped with training and advanced agricultural management practices under the realm of climate change. Moreover, innovative technologies pertinent to the agriculture system should be encouraged to handle the challenges arising due to variations in climate factors.

Keywords: climate change, fixed effect model, panel data, wheat productivity

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

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The design of sewerage systems is directly related to rainfall, which has a highly random character. Showers are usually described by three characteristics: intensity, volume and duration. Several studies considered only in two of the three models. The objective of our work is to perform an analysis of the impact of three variables on put in charge of sewerage system, responsible for misbehavior, origin of urban flooding. 30 events were considered events for the longest, most rushed and most intense period which runs from 1986 -2001. We built the IDF curves and heavy projects double symmetrical triangles associated with this selection. A simulation of the operation, with the model canoe, sewage from the city of Annaba (Algeria) in the three rain solicitation project, double triangles associated with events considered. It appears that the sewage of the city of Annaba, in terms of charging, is much more sensitive to rain most precipitous, and the more intense causing loadings and last the longest. Further analysis of all the rain and the field measurements are underway to confirm the test simulations.

Keywords: intensity, volume, duration, sewerage, design, simulation

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Authors: Dimphna Ezikanyi, Gloria Sakwari

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Airborne pollen and fungal spores are major triggers of allergies, and their abundance and seasonality depend on plant responses to climatic and meteorological variables. A survey of seasonal prevalence of airborne pollen and fungal spores in Nsukka, Enugu, South- East Nigeria and relationship to climatic variables were carried out from Jan-June, 2017. The aim of the study was to access climate change and variability over time in the area and their accrued influence on modern pollen and spores rain. Decadal change in climate was accessed from variables collected from meteorological centre in the study area. Airborne samples were collected monthly using a modified Tauber-like pollen samplers raised 5 ft above ground level. Aerosamples collected were subjected to acetolysis. Dominant pollen recorded were those of Poaceae, Elaeis guinensis Jacq. and Casuarina equisetifolia L. Change in weather brought by onset of rainfall evoked sporulation and dispersal of diverse spores into ambient air especially potent allergenic spores with the spores of Ovularia, Bispora, Curvularia, Nigrospora, Helminthosporium preponderant; these 'hydrophilic fungi' were abundant in the rainy season though in varying quantities. Total fungal spores correlated positively with monthly rainfall and humidity but negatively with temperature. There was a negative though not significant correlation between total pollen count and rainfall. The study revealed a strong influence of climatic variables on abundance and spatial distribution of pollen and fungal spores in the ambient atmosphere.

Keywords: allergy, fungal spores, pollen, weather parameters

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Authors: Varsha Prasad, S. Sandya

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Cosmic Ray effects in microelectronics such as single event effect (SET) and total dose ionization (TID) have been of major concern in space electronics since 1970. Advanced CMOS technologies have demonstrated reduced sensitivity to TID effect. However, charge pump Phase Locked Loop is very much vulnerable to single event transient effect. This paper presents an SET analysis model, where the SET is modeled as a double exponential pulse. The time domain analysis reveals that the settling time of the voltage controlled oscillator (VCO) depends on the SET pulse strength, setting the time constant and the damping factor. The analysis of the proposed SET analysis model is confirmed by the simulation results.

Keywords: charge pump, phase locked loop, SET, VCO

Procedia PDF Downloads 412