Search results for: forecasting methodologies review

Authors: Vitor Carneiro, Augusto Barata Da Rocha, Barbara Rangel, Jorge Lino Alves

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In the European Union countries, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SME’s) have an important contribution to economic activity and to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The implementation of design practices in SME’s is often a difficult task due to resources limitations. Unlike large companies, their product development and innovation processes frequentlylack adequate planning and systematic procedures. Design management interest has grown exponentially in recent years, but as it is a recent topic there is an absence of systematic methodologies to implement design management in SME’s with little or no design experience. This work presents a contribution to improve and optimize the process of design integration and management in SME’s. A review analysis is presented to select relevant articles on the subject, review and classify the main published contributions. Based on the selected articles content it was possible to identify five main themes related to the subject under analysis: Design Function Organization, Design Management Integration, Design Management Capabilities, Managing Design Projects, and Tools and Methods. Design management is discussed from different perspectives depending on the focus on which it is placed, whether in a design or management perspective, leading to different visions and definitions: from a more upstream strand at the intersection of design and the organization's strategic management (strategic design management) to a more downstream strand related to project management and design process (design management operational). The review analysis of the selected articles allowed the identification of a high level of complexity of connections and parameters in the design management during the product development process in the context of SME’s. Within each group of the five main themes, several sub-themes, directly or indirectly related, should be considered.Sub-connections also occur between sub-themes of different themes creating a complex and intricate web of connections. This complexity of connections is often the main obstacle to conduct design management and product development efficiently. This work proposes a formulation of a systematic methodological approach to optimize the integrated project and the management and control of the product development process among SME's. The implementation of this formulation will improve the integration of design management in the product development and innovation process in SME’s.

Keywords: design management, product development, product innovation, SME’s.

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Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: Stephen M. Simmons, Stuart W. Baur, William L. Gillis

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In recent years, increasing concern has been shown towards the issue of light pollution, especially with the spread of brighter, more blue-rich LED bulbs. Much research has been conducted in order to study the effects of artificial light at night, and many adverse impacts have been discovered, such as circadian disruption, degradation of the night sky, and interference oftheprocesses and behaviors of plants and animals. Despite a plethora of informationin the literature regarding the numerous illeffects of this type of pollution, there does not appear to be a complete summary of these impacts, including their magnitudes, which would facilitate the balancing of risks and benefits in the design of an exterior lighting system. This paperprovides a comprehensive review of the known impacts of light pollution, divided into four categories - human health, night sky, plants, and animals; additionally, it includes a synopsis of what likely remains unknown at this point in time. This review will attempt to showcase the relative significance of differentimpacts within each category, as well as their sensitivity to changes in lighting specifications (brightness, color temperature, shielding, and mounting height). Methods to be employed in this research include an extensive literature review and the gathering of expert knowledge and opinions. The findings of this review will be used to inform the creation of an optimized lighting design for the Missouri University of Science and Technology campus. It is hoped that future research willexplore the known impacts of light pollution further, as well as search for what still remains to be found regarding the consequencesof artificial light at night.

Keywords: comprehensive review, impacts, light pollution, lighting design, literature review

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Authors: Jamshed Ahmad, Abdul Wahid Khan, Javed Ali Khan

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Managing software quality requirements change management is a difficult task in the field of software engineering. Avoiding incoming changes result in user dissatisfaction while accommodating to many requirement changes may delay product delivery. Poor requirements management is solely considered the primary cause of the software failure. It becomes more challenging in global software outsourcing. Addressing success factors in quality requirement change management is desired today due to the frequent change requests from the end-users. In this research study, success factors are recognized and scrutinized with the help of a systematic literature review (SLR). In total, 16 success factors were identified, which significantly impacted software quality requirement change management. The findings show that Proper Requirement Change Management, Rapid Delivery, Quality Software Product, Access to Market, Project Management, Skills and Methodologies, Low Cost/Effort Estimation, Clear Plan and Road Map, Agile Processes, Low Labor Cost, User Satisfaction, Communication/Close Coordination, Proper Scheduling and Time Constraints, Frequent Technological Changes, Robust Model, Geographical distribution/Cultural differences are the key factors that influence software quality requirement change. The recognized success factors and validated with the help of various research methods, i.e., case studies, interviews, surveys and experiments. These factors are then scrutinized in continents, database, company size and period of time. Based on these findings, requirement change will be implemented in a better way.

Keywords: global software development, requirement engineering, systematic literature review, success factors

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Authors: Yunwei Zhang, Qiaochu Tang, Yao Zhang, Jiabin Wang, Ulrich Stimming, Alpha Lee

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Forecasting the state of health and remaining useful life of Li-ion batteries is an unsolved challenge that limits technologies such as consumer electronics and electric vehicles. Here we build an accurate battery forecasting system by combining electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) -- a real-time, non-invasive and information-rich measurement that is hitherto underused in battery diagnosis -- with Gaussian process machine learning. We collect over 20,000 EIS spectra of commercial Li-ion batteries at different states of health, states of charge and temperatures -- the largest dataset to our knowledge of its kind. Our Gaussian process model takes the entire spectrum as input, without further feature engineering, and automatically determines which spectral features predict degradation. Our model accurately predicts the remaining useful life, even without complete knowledge of past operating conditions of the battery. Our results demonstrate the value of EIS signals in battery management systems.

Keywords: battery degradation, machine learning method, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, battery diagnosis

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Authors: Lucas Bernardes Naves, Luis Almeida

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The paper includes a review concerning the use of some composites including poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PGLA), zeolite and Gadopentetic acid (Gd-DTPA) loaded chitosan nanoparticles (Gd-nanoCPs) in order to establish a new alternative for the treatment of Melanoma Skin Cancer. The main goal of this paper it to make a review of what scientist have done in the last few years, as well as to propose a less invasive therapy for skin cancer, by using Hydrocolloid, based on PLGA coated with Gd-nanoCPs for Neutron Capture Therapy.

Keywords: cancer therapy, dressing polymers, melanoma, wound healing

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Authors: Christa Siminiuk, Morgan Yates, Paramita Banerjee, Alison Curtis, Lysbeth Cuanda

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This review looked at current evidence regarding barriers and facilitators to nursing scholarship within the content of Canadian Schools of Nursing. Nursing scholarship mainly referred to research, though other activities as described by Boyer’s Model were also discussed. This scoping review was done to assist the Langara School of Nursing in developing an evidenced-based plan to enhance scholarly work among its faculty members. The scoping review identified 10 articles which detailed barriers and facilitators in both Canadian and international contexts. Barriers and facilitators in these articles were extracted and they were also critically appraised. The identified barriers and facilitators fell into three main areas; personal attributes, facility factors and system challenges. The three area will be discussed further in the presentation as well as strategies identified to overcome these barriers.

Keywords: barriers, facilitators, nursing education, scholarship

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Authors: Sobia Rana

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The study intends to explain the problems of English collocational use faced by college students in Rawalpindi, Pakistan and recommends some authentic ways that will help in removing the learning barriers in light of the concerning methodological issues. It will not only help the students to improve their knowledge of the phenomena but will also enlighten the target teachers about the significance of authentic collocational use and how it naturalizes both written and spoken expressions. Data from both the students and teachers have been collected with the help of open/close-ended questionnaires to unearth the genuine cause/s and supplement them with the required solutions rooted in the actual problems. The students fail to use authentic collocations owing to multiple reasons: lack of awareness about English collocational use, improper teaching methodologies, and inexpert teachers.

Keywords: English collocational use, teaching methodologies, English learning barriers, vocabulary acquisition, college students of Rawalpindi

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Authors: Soma Gholamveisy, Vahid Mirghavameddin

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Aquaculture activities face wide environmental, social, and economic problems today. To deal with these problems, the aquaculture business, which is already a highly significant agricultural activity, is influenced by sustainability, which can assure the rural community's safety and food health with minimal environmental damage. The objective of this study's systematic review of the literature (SLR) is to look into the use of global perspective Promotion of Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture. SLR aims to identify the goals of a promotional system, also one of its main components. This research seeks to empower, increase economic productivity, facilitate, pay more attention to the sustainability of the environment and inform the audience in this regard. A method used to assess hypotheses, condense the results of past studies or verify the consistency of studies. It presents a succinct analysis of original research using an unambiguous and verifiable approach. A thorough repository with a vast array of papers and effective exploration methods are frequently utilized in a systematic literature review, enabling the application of advanced logical statements. A comprehensive literature review was carried out to ensure that the most relevant studies were included. This type of review clarifies publication selection criteria and allows evaluation of the studies conducted and their repetition or extension.

Keywords: systematic review, sustainable, fisheries, aquaculture

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Authors: Cailyn Green

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This research investigated the lack of standardization that exists in the field of polysubstance use. This standardization has to do with a uniform way of defining when and if polysubstance is taking place. This research is important to the field of substance abuse as it makes future researchers aware of this lack of uniformity in a commonly used word in the field. By investigating, we make researchers aware of these discrepancies to encourage a uniform definition to be created and used. The methodology for this research was a literary review. This literature review consisted of four peer-reviewed and published journal articles in four different journals. These articles focused on adolescents and their polysubstance use. The research question asked what time frame was used to determine if a client's substance use can be classified as polysubstance use when they reported using two or more substances. The results identify that there is no uniform working definition of the time frame for polysubstance to take place.

Keywords: addiction, adolescence, literary review, polysubstance

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Authors: Raúl González Muñoz, Essam Shehab, Martin Weinitzke, Chris Fowler, Paul Baguley

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Software applications have become crucial for the aerospace industry, providing a wide range of functionalities and capabilities. However, due to the considerable time difference between aircraft and software life cycles, obsolescence has turned into a major challenge for industry in last decades. This paper aims to provide a view on the different causes of software obsolescence within aerospace industry, as well as a perception on the importance of each of them. The key research question addressed is what drives software obsolescence in the aerospace industry, managing large software application portfolios. This question has been addressed by conducting firstly an in depth review of current literature and secondly by arranging an industry workshop with professionals from aerospace and consulting companies. The result is a set of drivers of software obsolescence, distributed among three different environments and several domains. By incorporating monitoring methodologies to assess those software obsolescence drivers, benefits in maintenance efforts and operations disruption avoidance are expected.

Keywords: aerospace industry, obsolescence drivers, software lifecycle, software obsolescence

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Authors: Pruethipong Xinghatiraj, Rajwanlop Kumpoopong

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Considering the current situation of road safety, Thailand has the world’s second-highest road fatality rate. Therefore, decreasing the road accidents in Thailand is a prime policy of the Thai government seeking to accomplish. One of the approaches to reduce the accident rate is to improve road environments to fit with the local behavior of the road users. The Department of Highways ensures that choosing the road median types right to the road characteristics, e.g. roadside characteristics, traffic volume, truck traffic percentage, etc., can decrease the possibility of accident occurrence. Presently, raised median, depressed median, painted median and median barriers are typically used in Thailand Highways. In this study, factors affecting road accident for each median type will be discovered through the analysis of the collecting of accident data, death numbers on sample of 600 Kilometers length across the country together with its roadside characteristics, traffic volume, heavy vehicles percentage, and other key factors. The benefits of this study can assist the Highway designers to select type of road medians that can match local environments and then cause less accident prone.

Keywords: highways, road safety, road median, forecasting model

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Authors: Neha Singh, Shristi Singh

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Accidents involving motor vehicles are more likely to cause serious injuries and fatalities. It also has a host of other perpetual issues, such as the regular loss of life and goods in accidents. To solve these issues, appropriate measures must be implemented, such as establishing an autonomous incident detection system that makes use of machine learning and artificial intelligence. In order to reduce traffic accidents, this article examines the overview of artificial intelligence and machine learning in autonomous event detection systems. The paper explores the major issues, prospective solutions, and use of artificial intelligence and machine learning in road transportation systems for minimising traffic accidents. There is a lot of discussion on additional, fresh, and developing approaches that less frequent accidents in the transportation industry. The study structured the following subtopics specifically: traffic management using machine learning and artificial intelligence and an incident detector with these two technologies. The internet of vehicles and vehicle ad hoc networks, as well as the use of wireless communication technologies like 5G wireless networks and the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence for the planning of road transportation systems, are elaborated. In addition, safety is the primary concern of road transportation. Route optimization, cargo volume forecasting, predictive fleet maintenance, real-time vehicle tracking, and traffic management, according to the review's key conclusions, are essential for ensuring the safety of road transportation networks. In addition to highlighting research trends, unanswered problems, and key research conclusions, the study also discusses the difficulties in applying artificial intelligence to road transport systems. Planning and managing the road transportation system might use the work as a resource.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, incident detector, road transport systems, traffic management, automatic incident detection, deep learning

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Authors: Araba A. Z. Osei-Tutu, Ebenezer Odame, Joseph Bawa, Samuel Amponsah

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Education is recognized as a fundamental human right and a catalyst for development. Despite progress in the provision of higher education on the African continent, there persist challenges with the tripartite areas of access, equity and quality. Therefore, this systematic review aimed at providing a comprehensive overview of conversations and voices of scholars on these three concepts in HE in Africa. The systematic review employed a thematic analysis approach, synthesizing findings from 38 selected sources. After a critical analysis of the sources included in the systematic review, deficits in access, quality, and equity were outlined, focusing on infrastructure, regional disparities, and privatization challenges. The review also revealed the weak enforcement of quality assurance measures. Strategies for improvement, proffered by the study, include expanding public sector HE, deregulating the educational sector, promoting open and distance learning, implementing preferential admission policies, and enhancing financial aid. This research contributes valuable insights for policymakers, educators, and stakeholders, fostering a collaborative approach to address challenges and promote holistic development in African higher education.

Keywords: access, equity, quality, higher education, Africa, systematic review, strategies

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Authors: Majd Megheirkouni

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The aim of this study is to identify empirical studies that explore and investigate ethical leadership in order to assess and synthesize its impacts and outcomes. This study seeks to provide an evidence-informed answer to a set of questions on ethical leadership definition in the field of tourism and hospitality, its investigation, and examination, and its outcome. A systematic literature review, using medical science-based methodology, was conducted to synthesize research by reliable means. Four themes were identified from the analysis. These themes are: Ethical leaders’ characteristics, healthy work environment, ethical leadership effectiveness, and the application of ethical leadership across cultures. This study provides the potential to move hospitality and tourism leadership forward and encourage researchers to investigate new research topics. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first systematic review focusing on ethical leadership in tourism and hospitality settings.

Keywords: ethical leadership, approach, outcome, tourism, hospitality, systematic review

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Authors: M. A. Yazdi, J. Yang, L. Yihui, H. Su

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The application of recycle waste tires into civil engineering practices, namely asphalt paving mixtures and cementbased materials has been gaining ground across the world. This review summarizes and compares the recent achievements in the area of plain rubberized concrete (PRC), in details. Different treatment methods have been discussed to improve the performance of rubberized Portland cement concrete. The review also includes the effects of size and amount of tire rubbers on mechanical and durability properties of PRC. The microstructure behaviour of the rubberized concrete was detailed.

Keywords: waste rubber aggregates, microstructure, treatment methods, size and content effects

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Authors: Eunjung Lee

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This research investigates the intricate connection between cultural differences and online consumer behaviors by integrating Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions theory with analysis methodologies such as text mining, data mining, and topic analysis. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how national cultural differences influence individuals' behaviors when engaging with online reviews. To ensure the relevance of our investigation, we systematically analyze and interpret the cultural nuances influencing online consumer behaviors, especially in the context of online reviews. By anchoring our research in Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions theory, we seek to offer valuable insights for marketers to tailor their strategies based on the cultural preferences of diverse global consumer bases. In our methodology, we employ advanced text mining techniques to extract insights from a diverse range of online reviews gathered globally for a specific product or service like Netflix. This approach allows us to reveal hidden cultural cues in the language used by consumers from various backgrounds. Complementing text mining, data mining techniques are applied to extract meaningful patterns from online review datasets collected from different countries, aiming to unveil underlying structures and gain a deeper understanding of the impact of cultural differences on online consumer behaviors. The study also integrates topic analysis to identify recurring subjects, sentiments, and opinions within online reviews. Marketers can leverage these insights to inform the development of culturally sensitive strategies, enhance target audience segmentation, and refine messaging approaches aligned with cultural preferences. Anchored in Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions theory, our research employs sophisticated methodologies to delve into the intricate relationship between cultural differences and online consumer behaviors. Applied to specific cultural dimensions, such as individualism vs. collectivism, masculinity vs. femininity, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term vs. short-term orientation, the study uncovers nuanced insights. For example, in exploring individualism vs. collectivism, we examine how reviewers from individualistic cultures prioritize personal experiences while those from collectivistic cultures emphasize communal opinions. Similarly, within masculinity vs. femininity, we investigate whether distinct topics align with cultural notions, such as robust features in masculine cultures and user-friendliness in feminine cultures. Examining information-seeking behaviors under uncertainty avoidance reveals how cultures differ in seeking detailed information or providing succinct reviews based on their comfort with ambiguity. Additionally, in assessing long-term vs. short-term orientation, the research explores how cultural focus on enduring benefits or immediate gratification influences reviews. These concrete examples contribute to the theoretical enhancement of Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions theory, providing a detailed understanding of cultural impacts on online consumer behaviors. As online reviews become increasingly crucial in decision-making, this research not only contributes to the academic understanding of cultural influences but also proposes practical recommendations for enhancing online review systems. Marketers can leverage these findings to design targeted and culturally relevant strategies, ultimately enhancing their global marketing effectiveness and optimizing online review systems for maximum impact.

Keywords: comparative analysis, cultural dimensions, marketing intelligence, national culture, online consumer behavior, text mining

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Authors: Enido Fabiano de Ramos, Ieda Kanashiro Makiya, Francisco I. Giocondo Cesar

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This study investigates the application of Digital Twins (DT) in Smart Hospital Environments (SHE), through a bibliometric study and literature review, including comparison with the principles of Industry 4.0. It aims to analyze the current state of the implementation of digital twins in clinical and non-clinical operations in healthcare settings, identifying trends and challenges, comparing these practices with Industry 4.0 concepts and technologies, in order to present a basic framework including stages and maturity levels. The bibliometric methodology will allow mapping the existing scientific production on the theme, while the literature review will synthesize and critically analyze the relevant studies, highlighting pertinent methodologies and results, additionally the comparison with Industry 4.0 will provide insights on how the principles of automation, interconnectivity and digitalization can be applied in healthcare environments/operations, aiming at improvements in operational efficiency and quality of care. The results of this study will contribute to a deeper understanding of the potential of Digital Twins in Smart Hospitals, in addition to the future potential from the effective integration of Industry 4.0 concepts in this specific environment, presented through the practical framework, after all, the urgent need for changes addressed in this article is undeniable, as well as all their value contribution to human sustainability, designed in SDG3 – Health and well-being: ensuring that all citizens have a healthy life and well-being, at all ages and in all situations. We know that the validity of these relationships will be constantly discussed, and technology can always change the rules of the game.

Keywords: digital twin, smart hospital, healthcare operations, industry 4.0, SDG3, technology

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Authors: Günther Schuh, Christina König, Toni Drescher

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One of the key factors for the competitiveness and market success of technology-driven companies is the timely provision of information about emerging technologies, changes in existing technologies, as well as relevant related changes in the market's structures and participants. Therefore, many companies conduct technology intelligence (TI) activities to ensure an early identification of appropriate technologies and other (weak) signals. One base activity of TI is technology monitoring, which is defined as the systematic tracking of developments within a specified topic of interest as well as related trends over a long period of time. Due to the very large number of dynamically changing parameters within the technological and the market environment of a company as well as their possible interdependencies, it is necessary to focus technology monitoring on specific indicators or other criteria, which are able to point out technological developments and market changes. In addition to the execution of a literature review on existing approaches, which mainly propose patent-based indicators, it is examined in this paper whether indicator systems from other branches such as risk management or economic research could be transferred to technology monitoring in order to enable an efficient and focused technology monitoring for companies.

Keywords: technology forecasting, technology indicator, technology intelligence, technology management, technology monitoring

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Authors: Kedwadee Sombultawee, Sakun Boon-Itt

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This research demonstrates a systematic literature review of 62 peer-reviewed articles published in academic journals from 2000-2016 focusing on the operation and marketing interface area. The findings show the three major clusters of recent research domains, which is a review of the alignment between operations and marketing, identification of variables that impact the company and analysis of the effect of interface. Moreover, the Main Path Analysis (MPA) is mapped to show the knowledge structure of the operation and marketing interface issue. Most of the empirical research focused on company performance and new product development then analyzed the data by the structural equation model or regression. Whereas, some scholars studied the conflict of these two functions and proposed the requirement or step for alignment. Finally, the gaps in the literature are provided for future research directions.

Keywords: operations management, marketing, interface, systematic literature review

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Authors: Romel Cordova Shedan

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The traditional seismic design is the methodology of Forced Based Design (FBD). The Displacement Based Design (DBD) is a seismic design that considers structural damage to achieve a failure mechanism of the structure before the collapse. It is easier to quantify damage of a structure with displacements rather than forces. Therefore, a structure to achieve an inelastic displacement design with good ductility, it is necessary to be damaged. The first part of this investigation is about differences between the methodologies of DBD and FBD with some DBD advantages. In the second part, there is a study case about a dual building 5-story, which is regular in plan and elevation. The building is located in a seismic zone, which acceleration in firm soil is 45% of the acceleration of gravity. Then it is applied both methodologies into the study case to compare its displacements, shear forces and overturning moments. In the third part, the Dynamic Time History Analysis (DTHA) is done, to compare displacements with DBD and FBD methodologies. Three accelerograms were used and the magnitude of the acceleration scaled to be spectrum compatible with design spectrum. Then, using ASCE 41-13 guidelines, the hinge plastics were assigned to structure. Finally, both methodologies results about study case are compared. It is important to take into account that the seismic performance level of the building for DBD is greater than FBD method. This is due to drifts of DBD are in the order of 2.0% and 2.5% comparing with FBD drifts of 0.7%. Therefore, displacements of DBD is greater than the FBD method. Shear forces of DBD result greater than FBD methodology. These strengths of DBD method ensures that structure achieves design inelastic displacements, because those strengths were obtained due to a displacement spectrum reduction factor which depends on damping and ductility of the dual system. Also, the displacements for the study case for DBD results to be greater than FBD and DTHA. In that way, it proves that the seismic performance level of the building for DBD is greater than FBD method. Due to drifts of DBD which are in the order of 2.0% and 2.5% compared with little FBD drifts of 0.7%.

Keywords: displacement-based design, displacement spectrum reduction factor, dynamic time history analysis, forced based design

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Authors: Dongkwon Han, Sangho Kim, Sunil Kwon

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Unconventional gas resources have dramatically changed the future energy landscape. Unlike conventional gas resources, the key challenges in unconventional gas have been the requirement that applies to advanced approaches for production forecasting due to uncertainty and complexity of fluid flow. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) model which integrates machine learning and data-driven approach was developed to predict productivity in shale gas. The database of 129 wells of Eagle Ford shale basin used for testing and training of the ANN model. The Input data related to hydraulic fracturing, well completion and productivity of shale gas were selected and the output data is a cumulative production. The performance of the ANN using all data sets, clustering and variables importance (VI) models were compared in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). ANN model using all data sets, clustering, and VI were obtained as 44.22%, 10.08% (cluster 1), 5.26% (cluster 2), 6.35%(cluster 3), and 32.23% (ANN VI), 23.19% (SVM VI), respectively. The results showed that the pre-trained ANN model provides more accurate results than the ANN model using all data sets.

Keywords: unconventional gas, artificial neural network, machine learning, clustering, variables importance

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Authors: Abdinasir Mohamed, Ashraf El-Hamalawi, Steven Yeomans, Matthew Frost, Andy Connell

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The evaluation and selection of appropriate software solutions to meet with an organisation’s inherent business requirements can be a problematic software engineering process that if done incorrectly can have a significant, costly and adverse effect on the business and its processes. The aim of this paper is to show the process and evaluation criteria followed to select the right engineering solution for the identified business requirement. The research adopted an action research method within an organisation in the oil and gas industry, which required a solution suitable for conducting stress analysis for soil-pipeline interaction analysis (SPIA). Through the use of the presented software selection and evaluation approach, to capture and measure key requirements, it was possible to determine a suitable software for the organisation. This paper investigates methodologies for selecting software packages, software evaluation techniques, and software evaluation criteria in evaluating software packages before providing an explanation of the developed methodology adopted. The key findings of the study are: (1) that there is a need to create a framework for software selection methodologies, (2) there are no universal selection criteria in the engineering industry, and (3) there is a need to validate the findings by creating an application based on the evaluation technique and evaluation criteria for selecting software packages for the engineering industry. The findings of the study are offered to support organisations in the oil and gas sector improve software selection methodologies for SPIA.

Keywords: software evaluation, end user programs, soil pipeline analysis, software selection

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Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

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Authors: Zeynep Turhan

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This review emphasized the effectiveness of men’s participation, and whether non-violent (NV) boys’ and men’s perceptions of IPV prevention programs affect their involvement. Additionally, the review aimed to identify the barriers of non-engagement as well as the most effective approaches to end and prevent violence-against-women (VAW). The main goals of this assessment were to investigate 1) how NV men engage in anti-violence prevention programs that empower women, 2) what are the possible perceptions of NV men involved in prevention programs 3) how to identify effective approaches and strategies that encourage NV men to become involved in prevention programs. This critical review also included the overview of prevention programs such as The Mentors in Violence Prevention Programs (MVP), The White Ribbon Campaign (WRC), and Domestic Violence Prevention Enhancement and Leadership through Alliances (DELTA). The review recommended expanding these programs to reach more macro settings such as workplace, faith-based and other community-based organizations. Additionally, secondary and territory prevention programs need to expand through addressing the long-term effects of violence.

Keywords: engagement, non-violent men, prevention programs

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Angel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors’. The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: demand forecasting, empirical distribution, propagation of error, Bogota

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Authors: Pablo Martinez, Emad Mohamed, Osama Mohsen, Yasser Mohamed

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Highway and bridge agencies, such as the Ministry of Transportation in Ontario, use the Bridge Condition Index (BCI) which is defined as the weighted condition of all bridge elements to determine the rehabilitation priorities for its bridges. Therefore, accurate forecasting of BCI is essential for bridge rehabilitation budgeting planning. The large amount of data available in regard to bridge conditions for several years dictate utilizing traditional mathematical models as infeasible analysis methods. This research study focuses on investigating different classification models that are developed to predict the bridge condition index in the province of Ontario, Canada based on the publicly available data for 2800 bridges over a period of more than 10 years. The data preparation is a key factor to develop acceptable classification models even with the simplest one, the k-NN model. All the models were tested, compared and statistically validated via cross validation and t-test. A simple k-NN model showed reasonable results (within 0.5% relative error) when predicting the bridge condition in an incoming year.

Keywords: asset management, bridge condition index, data mining, forecasting, infrastructure, knowledge discovery in databases, maintenance, predictive models

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Authors: Razieh Rezaeekalantari

Abstract:

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prediction of parenting orientations in terms of the components of couples' sexual review. Methods: This was a descriptive correlational research method. The population consisted of 500 couples referring to Sari Health Center. Two hundred and fifteen (215) people were selected randomly by using Krejcie-Morgan-sample-size-table. For data collection, the childbearing orientations scale and the Multidimensional Sexual Self-Concept Questionnaire were used. Result: For data analysis, the mean and standard deviation were used and to analyze the research hypothesis regression correlation and inferential statistics were used. Conclusion: The findings indicate that there is not a significant relationship between the tendency to childbearing and the predictive value of sexual review (r = 0.84) with significant level (sig = 219.19) (P < 0.05). So, with 95% confidence, we conclude that there is not a meaningful relationship between sexual orientation and tendency to child-rearing.

Keywords: couples referring, health center, sexual review component, parenting orientations

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Authors: Mourad Ben Bennani

Abstract:

Views of language and language learning have undergone a tremendous change over the last decades. Language is no longer seen as a set of structured rules. It is rather viewed as a tool of interaction and communication. This shift in views has resulted in change in viewing language learning, which gave birth to various approaches and methodologies of language teaching. Two of these approaches are content-based instruction and content and language integrated learning (CLIL). These are similar approaches which integrate content and foreign/second language learning through various methodologies and models as a result of different implementations around the world. This presentation deals with sociocultural view of CBI and CLIL. It also defines language and content as vital components of CBI and CLIL. Next it reviews the origins of CBI and the continuum perspectives and CLIL definitions and models featured in the literature. Finally it summarizes current aspects around research in program evaluation with a focus on the benefits and challenges of these innovative approaches for second language teaching.

Keywords: CBI, CLIL, CBI continuum, CLIL models

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Rebecca Oakes

Abstract:

In the New Zealand public health system, work has been taking place to use electronic systems to convey data from the ‘floor to the board’ that makes patient needs, and therefore nursing work, visible. For nurses, these developments in health information technology puts us in a very new and exciting position of being able to articulate the work of nursing through a language understood at all levels of an organisation, the language of acuity. Nurses increasingly have a considerable stake-hold in patient acuity data. Patient acuity systems, when used well, can assist greatly in demonstrating how much work is required, the type of work, and when it will be required. The New Zealand Safe Staffing Unit is supporting New Zealand nurses to create a culture of shared governance, where nursing data is informing policies, staffing methodologies and forecasting within their organisations. Assisting organisations to understand their acuity data, strengthening user confidence in using electronic patient acuity systems, and ensuring nursing and midwifery workload is accurately reflected is critical to the success of the safe staffing programme. Nurses and midwives have the capacity via an acuity tool to become key informers of organisational planning. Quality patient care, best use of health resources and a quality work environment are essential components of a safe, resilient and well resourced organisation. Nurses are the key informers of this information. In New Zealand a national level approach is paving the way for significant changes to the understanding and use of patient acuity and nursing workload information.

Keywords: nursing workload, patient acuity, safe staffing, New Zealand

Procedia PDF Downloads 359