Search results for: property investment
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2816

Search results for: property investment

176 Globalisation and Diplomacy: How Can Small States Improve the Practice of Diplomacy to Secure Their Foreign Policy Objectives?

Authors: H. M. Ross-McAlpine

Abstract:

Much of what is written on diplomacy, globalization and the global economy addresses the changing nature of relationships between major powers. While the most dramatic and influential changes have resulted from these developing relationships the world is not, on deeper inspection, governed neatly by major powers. Due to advances in technology, the shifting balance of power and a changing geopolitical order, small states have the ability to exercise a greater influence than ever before. Increasingly interdependent and ever complex, our world is too delicate to be handled by a mighty few. The pressure of global change requires small states to adapt their diplomatic practices and diversify their strategic alliances and relationships. The nature and practice of diplomacy must be re-evaluated in light of the pressures resulting from globalization. This research examines: how small states can best secure their foreign policy objectives? Small state theory is used as a foundation for exploring the case study of New Zealand. The research draws on secondary sources to evaluate the existing theory in relation to modern practices of diplomacy. As New Zealand lacks the required economic and military power to play an active, influential role in international affairs what strategies are used to exert influence? Furthermore, New Zealand lies in a remote corner of the Pacific and is geographically isolated from its nearest neighbors how does this affect security and trade priorities? The findings note a significant shift since the 1970’s in New Zealand’s diplomatic relations. This shift is arguably a direct result of globalization, regionalism and a growing independence from the traditional bi-lateral relationships. The need to source predictable trade, investment and technology are an essential driving force for New Zealand’s diplomatic relations. A lack of hard power aligns New Zealand’s prosperity with a secure, rules-based international system that increases the likelihood of a stable and secure global order. New Zealand’s diplomacy and prosperity has been intrinsically reliant on its reputation. A vital component of New Zealand’s diplomacy is preserving a reputation for integrity and global responsibility. It is the use of this soft power that facilitates the influence that New Zealand enjoys on the world stage. To weave a comprehensive network of successful diplomatic relationships, New Zealand must maintain a reputation of international credibility. Globalization has substantially influenced the practice of diplomacy for New Zealand. The current world order places economic and military might in the hands of a few, subsequently requiring smaller states to use other means for securing their interests. There are clear strategies evident in New Zealand’s diplomacy practice that draw attention to how other smaller states might best secure their foreign policy objectives. While these findings are limited, as with all case study research, there is value in applying the findings to other small states struggling to secure their interests in the wake of rapid globalization.

Keywords: diplomacy, foreign policy, globalisation, small state

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175 Inhibition of Mild Steel Corrosion in Hydrochloric Acid Medium Using an Aromatic Hydrazide Derivative

Authors: Preethi Kumari P., Shetty Prakasha, Rao Suma A.

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Mild steel has been widely employed as construction materials for pipe work in the oil and gas production such as down hole tubular, flow lines and transmission pipelines, in chemical and allied industries for handling acids, alkalis and salt solutions due to its excellent mechanical property and low cost. Acid solutions are widely used for removal of undesirable scale and rust in many industrial processes. Among the commercially available acids hydrochloric acid is widely used for pickling, cleaning, de-scaling and acidization of oil process. Mild steel exhibits poor corrosion resistance in presence of hydrochloric acid. The high reactivity of mild steel in presence of hydrochloric acid is due to the soluble nature of ferrous chloride formed and the cementite phase (Fe3C) normally present in the steel is also readily soluble in hydrochloric acid. Pitting attack is also reported to be a major form of corrosion in mild steel in the presence of high concentrations of acids and thereby causing the complete destruction of metal. Hydrogen from acid reacts with the metal surface and makes it brittle and causes cracks, which leads to pitting type of corrosion. The use of chemical inhibitor to minimize the rate of corrosion has been considered to be the first line of defense against corrosion. In spite of long history of corrosion inhibition, a highly efficient and durable inhibitor that can completely protect mild steel in aggressive environment is yet to be realized. It is clear from the literature review that there is ample scope for the development of new organic inhibitors, which can be conveniently synthesized from relatively cheap raw materials and provide good inhibition efficiency with least risk of environmental pollution. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the electrochemical parameters for the corrosion inhibition behavior of an aromatic hydrazide derivative, 4-hydroxy- N '-[(E)-1H-indole-2-ylmethylidene)] benzohydrazide (HIBH) on mild steel in 2M hydrochloric acid using Tafel polarization and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) techniques at 30-60 °C. The results showed that inhibition efficiency increased with increase in inhibitor concentration and decreased marginally with increase in temperature. HIBH showed a maximum inhibition efficiency of 95 % at 8×10-4 M concentration at 30 °C. Polarization curves showed that HIBH act as a mixed-type inhibitor. The adsorption of HIBH on mild steel surface obeys the Langmuir adsorption isotherm. The adsorption process of HIBH at the mild steel/hydrochloric acid solution interface followed mixed adsorption with predominantly physisorption at lower temperature and chemisorption at higher temperature. Thermodynamic parameters for the adsorption process and kinetic parameters for the metal dissolution reaction were determined.

Keywords: electrochemical parameters, EIS, mild steel, tafel polarization

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174 Participatory Budgeting in South African Local Government: A Right or Illusion

Authors: Oliver Fuo

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One of the central features of post-apartheid constitutional reform was the establishment of local government as a distinct sphere of government in the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996. Local government, constituted by about 279 wall-to-wall municipalities, have legislative and executive powers vested in democratically elected municipal councils to govern areas within their jurisdiction subject only to limits imposed by the Constitution. In addition, unlike the past where municipalities merely played a service delivery role, they are now mandated to realise an expanded developmental mandate – pursue social justice and sustainable development; contribute, together with national and provincial government, to the realisation of socio-economic rights entrenched in the Bill of Rights; and facilitate public participation in local governance. In order to finance their developmental programmes, municipalities receive equitable allocations from national government and have legal powers to generate additional finances by charging rates on property and imposing surcharges on services provided. In addition to its general obligation to foster public participation in local governance, the law requires municipalities to facilitate public participation in their budgeting processes. This requirement is generally consistent with recent trends in local government democratic reforms which call for inclusive budget planning and implementation whereby citizens, civil society and NGOs participate in the allocation of resources. This trend is best captured in the concept of participatory budgeting. This paper specifically analyses the legal and policy framework for participatory budgeting at the local government level in South Africa. Using Borbet South Africa (Pty) Ltd and Others v Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality 2014 (5) SA 256 (ECP) as an example, this paper argues that the legal framework for participatory budgeting creates an illusory right for citizens to participate in municipal budgeting processes. This challenge is further compounded by the barrenness of the jurisprudence of courts that interpret the obligation of municipalities in this regard. It is submitted that the wording of s 27(4) of the Municipal Finance Management Act (MFMA) 53 of 2003 - which expressly stipulates that non-compliance by a municipality with a provision relating to the budget process or a provision in any legislation relating to the approval of a budget-related policy, does not affect the validity of an annual or adjustments budget – is problematic as it seems to trivialise the obligation to facilitate public participation in budgeting processes. It is submitted that where this provision is abused by municipal officials, this could lead to the sidelining of the real interests of communities in local budgets. This research is based on a critical and integrated review of primary and secondary sources of law.

Keywords: courts and jurisprudence, local government law, participatory budgeting, South Africa

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173 Investigation into the Socio-ecological Impact of Migration of Fulani Herders in Anambra State of Nigeria Through a Climate Justice Lens

Authors: Anselm Ego Onyimonyi, Maduako Johnpaul O.

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The study was designed to investigate into the socio-ecological impact of migration of Fulani herders in Anambra state of Nigeria, through a climate justice lens. Nigeria is one of the world’s most densely populated countries with a population of over 284 million people, half of which are considered to be in abject poverty. There is no doubt that livestock production provides sustainable contributions to food security and poverty reduction to Nigeria economy, but not without some environmental implications like any other economic activities. Nigeria is recognized as being vulnerable to climate change. Climate change and global warming if left unchecked will cause adverse effects on livelihoods in Nigeria, such as livestock production, crop production, fisheries, forestry and post-harvest activities, because the rainfall regimes and patterns will be altered, floods which devastate farmlands would occur, increase in temperature and humidity which increases pest and disease would occur and other natural disasters like desertification, drought, floods, ocean and storm surges, which not only damage Nigerians’ livelihood but also cause harm to life and property, would occur. This and other climatic issue as it affects Fulani herdsmen was what this study investigated. In carrying out this research, a survey research design was adopted. A simple sampling technique was used. One local government area (LGA) was selected purposively from each of the four agricultural zone in the state based on its predominance of Fulani herders. For appropriate sampling, 25 respondents from each of the four Agricultural zones in the state were randomly selected making up the 100 respondent being sampled. Primary data were generated by using a set of structured 5-likert scale questionnaire. Data generated were analyzed using SPSS and the result presented using descriptive statistics. From the data analyzed, the study indentified; Unpredicted rainfall (mean = 3.56), Forest fire (mean = 4.63), Drying Water Source (mean = 3.99), Dwindling Grazing (mean 4.43), Desertification (mean = 4.44), Fertile land scarcity (mean = 3.42) as major factor predisposing Fulani herders to migrate southward while rejecting Natural inclination to migrate (mean = 2.38) and migration to cause trouble as a factor. On the reason why Fulani herders are trying to establish a permanent camp in Anambra state; Moderate temperature (mean= 3.60), Avoiding overgrazing (4.42), Search for fodder and water (mean = 4.81) and (mean = 4.70) respectively, Need for market (4.28), Favorable environment (mean = 3.99) and Access to fertile land (3.96) were identified. It was concluded that changing climatic variables necessitated the migration of herders from Northern Nigeria to areas in the South were the variables are most favorable to the herders and their animals.

Keywords: socio-ecological, migration, fulani, climate, justice, lens

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172 Healthcare Utilization and Costs of Specific Obesity Related Health Conditions in Alberta, Canada

Authors: Sonia Butalia, Huong Luu, Alexis Guigue, Karen J. B. Martins, Khanh Vu, Scott W. Klarenbach

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Obesity-related health conditions impose a substantial economic burden on payers due to increased healthcare use. Estimates of healthcare resource use and costs associated with obesity-related comorbidities are needed to inform policies and interventions targeting these conditions. Methods: Adults living with obesity were identified (a procedure-related body mass index code for class 2/3 obesity between 2012 and 2019 in Alberta, Canada; excluding those with bariatric surgery), and outcomes were compared over 1-year (2019/2020) between those who had and did not have specific obesity-related comorbidities. The probability of using a healthcare service (based on the odds ratio of a zero [OR-zero] cost) was compared; 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. Logistic regression and a generalized linear model with log link and gamma distribution were used for total healthcare cost comparisons ($CDN); cost ratios and estimated cost differences (95% CI) were reported. Potential socio-demographic and clinical confounders were adjusted for, and incremental cost differences were representative of a referent case. Results: A total of 220,190 adults living with obesity were included; 44% had hypertension, 25% had osteoarthritis, 24% had type-2 diabetes, 17% had cardiovascular disease, 12% had insulin resistance, 9% had chronic back pain, and 4% of females had polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). The probability of hospitalization, ED visit, and ambulatory care was higher in those with a following obesity-related comorbidity versus those without: chronic back pain (hospitalization: 1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.57 [0.55/0.59]] / ED visit: 1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.54 [0.53/0.56]] / ambulatory care visit: 2.4-times [OR-zero: 0.41 [0.40/0.43]]), cardiovascular disease (2.7-times [OR-zero: 0.37 [0.36/0.38]] / 1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.52 [0.51/0.53]] / 2.8-times [OR-zero: 0.36 [0.35/0.36]]), osteoarthritis (2.0-times [OR-zero: 0.51 [0.50/0.53]] / 1.4-times [OR-zero: 0.74 [0.73/0.76]] / 2.5-times [OR-zero: 0.40 [0.40/0.41]]), type-2 diabetes (1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.54 [0.52/0.55]] / 1.4-times [OR-zero: 0.72 [0.70/0.73]] / 2.1-times [OR-zero: 0.47 [0.46/0.47]]), hypertension (1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.56 [0.54/0.57]] / 1.3-times [OR-zero: 0.79 [0.77/0.80]] / 2.2-times [OR-zero: 0.46 [0.45/0.47]]), PCOS (not significant / 1.2-times [OR-zero: 0.83 [0.79/0.88]] / not significant), and insulin resistance (1.1-times [OR-zero: 0.88 [0.84/0.91]] / 1.1-times [OR-zero: 0.92 [0.89/0.94]] / 1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.56 [0.54/0.57]]). After fully adjusting for potential confounders, the total healthcare cost ratio was higher in those with a following obesity-related comorbidity versus those without: chronic back pain (1.54-times [1.51/1.56]), cardiovascular disease (1.45-times [1.43/1.47]), osteoarthritis (1.36-times [1.35/1.38]), type-2 diabetes (1.30-times [1.28/1.31]), hypertension (1.27-times [1.26/1.28]), PCOS (1.08-times [1.05/1.11]), and insulin resistance (1.03-times [1.01/1.04]). Conclusions: Adults with obesity who have specific disease-related health conditions have a higher probability of healthcare use and incur greater costs than those without specific comorbidities; incremental costs are larger when other obesity-related health conditions are not adjusted for. In a specific referent case, hypertension was costliest (44% had this condition with an additional annual cost of $715 [$678/$753]). If these findings hold for the Canadian population, hypertension in persons with obesity represents an estimated additional annual healthcare cost of $2.5 billion among adults living with obesity (based on an adult obesity rate of 26%). Results of this study can inform decision making on investment in interventions that are effective in treating obesity and its complications.

Keywords: administrative data, healthcare cost, obesity-related comorbidities, real world evidence

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171 A Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors of Urban Residential Land Prices Among Regions

Authors: Guo Bingkun

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With the rapid development of China's social economy and the continuous improvement of urbanization level, people's living standards have undergone tremendous changes, and more and more people are gathering in cities. The demand for urban residents' housing has been greatly released in the past decade. The demand for housing and related construction land required for urban development has brought huge pressure to urban operations, and land prices have also risen rapidly in the short term. On the other hand, from the comparison of the eastern and western regions of China, there are also great differences in urban socioeconomics and land prices in the eastern, central and western regions. Although judging from the current overall market development, after more than ten years of housing market reform and development, the quality of housing and land use efficiency in Chinese cities have been greatly improved. However, the current contradiction between land demand for urban socio-economic development and land supply, especially the contradiction between land supply and demand for urban residential land, has not been effectively alleviated. Since land is closely linked to all aspects of society, changes in land prices will be affected by many complex factors. Therefore, this paper studies the factors that may affect urban residential land prices and compares them among eastern, central and western cities, and finds the main factors that determine the level of urban residential land prices. This paper provides guidance for urban managers in formulating land policies and alleviating land supply and demand. It provides distinct ideas for improving urban planning and improving urban planning and promotes the improvement of urban management level. The research in this paper focuses on residential land prices. Generally, the indicators for measuring land prices mainly include benchmark land prices, land price level values, parcel land prices, etc. However, considering the requirements of research data continuity and representativeness, this paper chooses to use residential land price level values. Reflects the status of urban residential land prices. First of all, based on the existing research at home and abroad, the paper considers the two aspects of land supply and demand and, based on basic theoretical analysis, determines some factors that may affect urban housing, such as urban expansion, taxation, land reserves, population, and land benefits. Factors of land price and correspondingly selected certain representative indicators. Secondly, using conventional econometric analysis methods, we established a model of factors affecting urban residential land prices, quantitatively analyzed the relationship and intensity of influencing factors and residential land prices, and compared the differences in the impact of urban residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions. Compare similarities. Research results show that the main factors affecting China's urban residential land prices are urban expansion, land use efficiency, taxation, population size, and residents' consumption. Then, the main reason for the difference in residential land prices between the eastern, central and western regions is the differences in urban expansion patterns, industrial structures, urban carrying capacity and real estate development investment.

Keywords: urban housing, urban planning, housing prices, comparative study

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170 Fabrication of All-Cellulose Composites from End-of-Life Textiles

Authors: Behnaz Baghaei, Mikael Skrifvars

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Sustainability is today a trend that is seen everywhere, with no exception for the textiles 31 industry. However, there is a rather significant downside regarding how the textile industry currently operates, namely the huge amount of end-of-life textiles coming along with it. Approximately 73% of the 53 million tonnes of fibres used annually for textile production is landfilled or incinerated, while only 12% is recycled as secondary products. Mechanical recycling of end-of-life textile fabrics into yarns and fabrics was before very common, but due to the low costs for virgin man-made fibres, the current textile material composition diversity, the fibre material quality variations and the high recycling costs this route is not feasible. Another way to decrease the ever-growing pile of textile waste is to repurpose the textile. If a feasible methodology can be found to reuse end-of life textiles as secondary market products including a manufacturing process that requires rather low investment costs, then this can be highly beneficial to counteract the increasing textile waste volumes. In structural composites, glass fibre textiles are used as reinforcements, but today there is a growing interest in biocomposites where the reinforcement and/or the resin are from a biomass resource. All-cellulose composites (ACCs) are monocomponent or single polymer composites, and they are entirely made from cellulose, ideally leading to a homogeneous biocomposite. Since the matrix and the reinforcement are both made from cellulose, and therefore chemically identical, they are fully compatible with each other which allow efficient stress transfer and adhesion at their interface. Apart from improving the mechanical performance of the final products, the recycling of the composites will be facilitated. This paper reports the recycling of end-of-life cellulose containing textiles by fabrication of all-cellulose composites (ACCs). Composite laminates were prepared by using an ionic liquid (IL) in a hot process, involving a partial dissolving of the cellulose fibres. Discharged denim fabrics were used as the reinforcement while dissolved cellulose from two different cellulose resources was used as the matrix phase. Virgin cotton staple fibres and recovered cotton from polyester/cotton (polycotton) waste fabrics were used to form the matrix phase. The process comprises the dissolving 6 wt.% cellulose solution in the ionic liquid 1-butyl-3-methyl imidazolium acetate ([BMIM][Ac]), this solution acted as a precursor for the matrix component. The denim fabrics were embedded in the cellulose/IL solution after which laminates were formed, which also involved removal of the IL by washing. The effect of reuse of the recovered IL was also investigated. The mechanical properties of the obtained ACCs were determined regarding tensile, impact and flexural properties. Mechanical testing revealed that there are no clear differences between the values measured for mechanical strength and modulus of the manufactured ACCs from denim/cotton-fresh IL, denim/recovered cotton-fresh IL and denim/cotton-recycled IL. This could be due to the low weight fraction of the cellulose matrix in the final ACC laminates and presumably the denim as cellulose reinforcement strongly influences and dominates the mechanical properties. Fabricated ACC composite laminates were further characterized regarding scanning electron microscopy.

Keywords: all-cellulose composites, denim fabrics, ionic liquid, mechanical properties

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169 Study of a Decentralized Electricity Market on Awaji Island

Authors: Arkadiusz P. Wójcik, Tetsuya Sato, Shin-Ichiro Shima, Mateusz Malanowski

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Over the last decades, new technologies have significantly changed the way information is transmitted and stored. Renewable energy sources have become prevalent and affordable. Cooperation of the Information and Communication Technology industry and Renewable Energy industry makes it possible to create a next generation, decentralized power grid. In this context, the study seeks to identify the wider benefits to the local Japanese economy as a result of the development of a decentralised electricity market. Our general approach aims to integrate an economic analysis (monetary appraisal of costs and benefits to society) with externalities that are not quantifiable in monetary terms (e.g. social impact, environmental impact). The study also highlights opportunities and sets out recommendations for the citizens of the island and the local government. The simulation is the scientific basis for economic impact analysis. Various types of sources of energy have been taken into account: residential wind farm, residential wind turbine, solar farm, residential solar panels and private solar farms. Analysis of local geographic and economic conditions allowed creating a customized business model. Very often farmers on Awaji Island are using crop cycle. During each cycle, one part of the field is resting and replenishing nutrients. In the next year another part of the field is resting. Portable solar panels could be freely set up in this part of the field. At the end of the crop cycle, portable solar panels would be moved to the next resting part. Because of spacious area, for a single household 500 square meters of portable solar panels has been proposed and simulated. The devised simulation shows that the Rate of Return on Investment for solar panels, which are on the island, could reach up to 37.21%. Supposing that about 20% of households install solar panels they could produce 49.11% of the electric energy consumed by households on the island. The analysis shows that rest of the energy supply can be produced by currently existing one huge solar farm and two wind farms to meet 97.59% of demand on electricity for households on the island. Although there are more than 7,000 agricultural fields on the island, young people tend to avoid agricultural work and prefer to move from the island to big cities, live there in little mansions and work until late night. The business model proposed in this study could increase farmer’s monthly income by ¥200,000 - ¥300,000 (1,600 euro – 2,400 euro). Young people could work less and have a higher standard of living than in a city. Creation of a decentralized electricity market can unlock significant benefits in other industries (e.g. electric vehicles), providing a welcome boost to economic growth, jobs and quality of life.

Keywords: digital twin, Matlab, model-based systems engineering, simulink, smart grid, systems engineering

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168 Biocompatibility assessment of different origin Barrier Membranes for Guided Bone Regeneration

Authors: Antonio Munar-Frau, Sascha Klismoch, Manfred Schmolz, Federico Hernandez-Alfaro, Jordi Caballe-Serrano

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Introduction: Biocompatibility of biomaterials has been proposed as one of the main criteria for treatment success. For guided bone regeneration (GBR), barrier membranes present a conflict given the number of origins and modifications of these materials. The biologic response to biomaterials is orchestrated by a series of events leading to the integration or rejection of the biomaterial, posing questions such as if a longer occlusive property may trigger an inflammatory reaction. Whole blood cultures are a solution to study the immune response to drugs or biomaterials during the first 24-48 hours. The aim of this study is to determine the early immune response of different origins and chemical modifications of barrier membranes. Materials & Methods: 5 different widely used barrier membranes were included in this study: Acellular dermal matrix (AlloDerm, LifeCell®), Porcine Peritoneum (BioGide, Geistlich Pharma®), Porcine Pericardium (Jason, Botiss Biomaterials GmbH®), Porcine Cross-linked collagen (Ossix Plus, Datum Dental®) and d-PTFE (Cytoplast TXT, Osteogenics Biomedical®). Blood samples were extracted from 3 different healthy donors and incubated with the different samples of barrier membranes for 24 hours. After the incubation time, serum samples were obtained and analyzed by means of biocompatibility assays taking into account 42 markers. Results: In an early stage of the inflammatory response, the Acellular dermal matrix, porcine peritoneum and porcine cross-linked collagen expressed similar patterns of cytokine expression with a great manifestation of ENA 78. Porcine pericardium and d-PTFE presented similar cytokine activation, especially for MMP-3 and MMP-9, although other cytokines were highlighted with lower expression. For the later immune response, Porcine peritoneum and acellular dermal matrix MCP-1 and IL-15 were evident. Porcine pericardium, porcine cross-linked collagen and d-PTFE presented a high expression of IL-16 and lower manifestation of other cytokines. Different behaviors depending on an earlier or later stage of the inflammation process were observed. Barrier membrane inflammatory expression does not only differ depending on the origin, variables such as treatment of the collagen and polymers may also have a great impact on the cytokine expression of the studied barrier membranes during inflammation. Conclusions: Surface treatment and modifications might affect the biocompatibility of the membranes, as different cytokine expressions were evidently depending on the origin of the biomaterial. This study is only a brushstroke regarding the biocompatibility of materials, as it is one of the pioneer studies for ex vivo barrier membranes assays. Studies regarding surface modification are needed in order to clarify mystifications of barrier membrane science.

Keywords: biomaterials, bone regeneration, biocompatibility, inflammation

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167 Combination of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and Terrestrial Laser Scanner Data for Citrus Yield Estimation

Authors: Mohammed Hmimou, Khalid Amediaz, Imane Sebari, Nabil Bounajma

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Annual crop production is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators for the majority of countries around the world. This information is valuable, especially for exporting countries which need a yield estimation before harvest in order to correctly plan the supply chain. When it comes to estimating agricultural yield, especially for arboriculture, conventional methods are mostly applied. In the case of the citrus industry, the sale before harvest is largely practiced, which requires an estimation of the production when the fruit is on the tree. However, conventional method based on the sampling surveys of some trees within the field is always used to perform yield estimation, and the success of this process mainly depends on the expertise of the ‘estimator agent’. The present study aims to propose a methodology based on the combination of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images and terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) point cloud to estimate citrus production. During data acquisition, a fixed wing and rotatory drones, as well as a terrestrial laser scanner, were tested. After that, a pre-processing step was performed in order to generate point cloud and digital surface model. At the processing stage, a machine vision workflow was implemented to extract points corresponding to fruits from the whole tree point cloud, cluster them into fruits, and model them geometrically in a 3D space. By linking the resulting geometric properties to the fruit weight, the yield can be estimated, and the statistical distribution of fruits size can be generated. This later property, which is information required by importing countries of citrus, cannot be estimated before harvest using the conventional method. Since terrestrial laser scanner is static, data gathering using this technology can be performed over only some trees. So, integration of drone data was thought in order to estimate the yield over a whole orchard. To achieve that, features derived from drone digital surface model were linked to yield estimation by laser scanner of some trees to build a regression model that predicts the yield of a tree given its features. Several missions were carried out to collect drone and laser scanner data within citrus orchards of different varieties by testing several data acquisition parameters (fly height, images overlap, fly mission plan). The accuracy of the obtained results by the proposed methodology in comparison to the yield estimation results by the conventional method varies from 65% to 94% depending mainly on the phenological stage of the studied citrus variety during the data acquisition mission. The proposed approach demonstrates its strong potential for early estimation of citrus production and the possibility of its extension to other fruit trees.

Keywords: citrus, digital surface model, point cloud, terrestrial laser scanner, UAV, yield estimation, 3D modeling

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166 Scenarios of Digitalization and Energy Efficiency in the Building Sector in Brazil: 2050 Horizon

Authors: Maria Fatima Almeida, Rodrigo Calili, George Soares, João Krause, Myrthes Marcele Dos Santos, Anna Carolina Suzano E. Silva, Marcos Alexandre Da

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In Brazil, the building sector accounts for 1/6 of energy consumption and 50% of electricity consumption. A complex sector with several driving actors plays an essential role in the country's economy. Currently, the digitalization readiness in this sector is still low, mainly due to the high investment costs and the difficulty of estimating the benefits of digital technologies in buildings. Nevertheless, the potential contribution of digitalization for increasing energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil has been pointed out as relevant in the political and sectoral contexts, both in the medium and long-term horizons. To contribute to the debate on the possible evolving trajectories of digitalization in the building sector in Brazil and to subsidize the formulation or revision of current public policies and managerial decisions, three future scenarios were created to anticipate the potential energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil due to digitalization by 2050. This work aims to present these scenarios as a basis to foresight the potential energy efficiency in this sector, according to different digitalization paces - slow, moderate, or fast in the 2050 horizon. A methodological approach was proposed to create alternative prospective scenarios, combining the Global Business Network (GBN) and the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective Strategy and Organisation (LIPSOR) methods. This approach consists of seven steps: (i) definition of the question to be foresighted and time horizon to be considered (2050); (ii) definition and classification of a set of key variables, using the prospective structural analysis; (iii) identification of the main actors with an active role in the digital and energy spheres; (iv) characterization of the current situation (2021) and identification of main uncertainties that were considered critical in the development of alternative future scenarios; (v) scanning possible futures using morphological analysis; (vi) selection and description of the most likely scenarios; (vii) foresighting the potential energy efficiency in each of the three scenarios, namely slow digitalization; moderate digitalization, and fast digitalization. Each scenario begins with a core logic and then encompasses potentially related elements, including potential energy efficiency. Then, the first scenario refers to digitalization at a slow pace, with induction by the government limited to public buildings. In the second scenario, digitalization is implemented at a moderate pace, induced by the government in public, commercial, and service buildings, through regulation integrating digitalization and energy efficiency mechanisms. Finally, in the third scenario, digitalization in the building sector is implemented at a fast pace in the country and is strongly induced by the government, but with broad participation of private investments and accelerated adoption of digital technologies. As a result of the slow pace of digitalization in the sector, the potential for energy efficiency stands at levels below 10% of the total of 161TWh by 2050. In the moderate digitalization scenario, the potential reaches 20 to 30% of the total 161TWh by 2050. Furthermore, in the rapid digitalization scenario, it will reach 30 to 40% of the total 161TWh by 2050.

Keywords: building digitalization, energy efficiency, scenario building, prospective structural analysis, morphological analysis

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165 Co-Movement between Financial Assets: An Empirical Study on Effects of the Depreciation of Yen on Asia Markets

Authors: Yih-Wenn Laih

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In recent times, the dependence and co-movement among international financial markets have become stronger than in the past, as evidenced by commentaries in the news media and the financial sections of newspapers. Studying the co-movement between returns in financial markets is an important issue for portfolio management and risk management. The realization of co-movement helps investors to identify the opportunities for international portfolio management in terms of asset allocation and pricing. Since the election of the new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in November 2012, the yen has weakened against the US dollar from the 80 to the 120 level. The policies, known as “Abenomics,” are to encourage private investment through a more aggressive mix of monetary and fiscal policy. Given the close economic relations and competitions among Asia markets, it is interesting to discover the co-movement relations, affected by the depreciation of yen, between stock market of Japan and 5 major Asia stock markets, including China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Specifically, we devote ourselves to measure the co-movement of stock markets between Japan and each one of the 5 Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. To compute the coefficients, return series of each stock market is first fitted by a skewed-t GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) model. Secondly, to measure the dependence structure between matched stock markets, we employ the symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula to calculate the probability density function of paired skewed-t distributions. The joint probability density function is then utilized as the scoring scheme to optimize the sequence alignment by dynamic programming method. Finally, we compute the rank correlation coefficients (Kendall's  and Spearman's ) between matched stock markets based on their aligned sequences. We collect empirical data of 6 stock indexes from Taiwan Economic Journal. The data is sampled at a daily frequency covering the period from January 1, 2013 to July 31, 2015. The empirical distributions of returns indicate fatter tails than the normal distribution. Therefore, the skewed-t distribution and SJC copula are appropriate for characterizing the data. According to the computed Kendall’s τ, Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan, followed by Taiwan, China, and Singapore; the weakest is Hong Kong. On the other hand, the Spearman’s ρ reveals that the strength of co-movement between markets with Japan in decreasing order are Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. We explore the effects of “Abenomics” on Asia stock markets by measuring the co-movement relation between Japan and five major Asia stock markets in terms of rank correlation coefficients. The matched markets are aligned by a hybrid method consisting of GARCH, copula and sequence alignment. Empirical experiments indicate that Korea has the strongest co-movement relation with Japan. The strength of China and Taiwan are better than Singapore. The Hong Kong market has the weakest co-movement relation with Japan.

Keywords: co-movement, depreciation of Yen, rank correlation, stock market

Procedia PDF Downloads 229
164 Hybrid Living: Emerging Out of the Crises and Divisions

Authors: Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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The paper will focus on the hybrid living typologies which are brought about due to the Global Crisis. Mixing of the generations and the groups of people, mingling the functions of living with working and socializing, merging the act of living in synergy with the urban realm and its constituent elements will be the springboard of proposing an essential sustainable housing approach and the respective urban development. The thematic will be based on methodologies developed both on the academic, educational environment including participation of students’ research and on the practical aspect of architecture including case studies executed by the author in the island of Cyprus. Both paths of the research will deal with the explorative understanding of the hybrid ways of living, testing the limits of its autonomy. The evolution of the living typologies into substantial hybrid entities, will deal with the understanding of new ways of living which include among others: re-introduction of natural phenomena, accommodation of the activity of work and services in the living realm, interchange of public and private, injections of communal events into the individual living territories. The issues and the binary questions raised by what is natural and artificial, what is private and what public, what is ephemeral and what permanent and all the in-between conditions are eloquently traced in the everyday life in the island. Additionally, given the situation of Cyprus with the eminent scar of the dividing ‘Green line’ and the waiting of the ‘ghost city’ of Famagusta to be resurrected, the conventional way of understanding the limits and the definitions of the properties is irreversibly shaken. The situation is further aggravated by the unprecedented phenomenon of the crisis on the island. All these observations set the premises of reexamining the urban development and the respective sustainable housing in a synergy where their characteristics start exchanging positions, merge into each other, contemporarily emerge and vanish, changing from permanent to ephemeral. This fluidity of conditions will attempt to render a future of the built- and unbuilt realm where the main focusing point will be redirected to the human and the social. Weather and social ritual scenographies together with ‘spontaneous urban landscapes’ of ‘momentary relationships’ will suggest a recipe for emerging urban environments and sustainable living. Thus, the paper will aim at opening a discourse on the future of the sustainable living merged in a sustainable urban development in relation to the imminent solution of the division of island, where the issue of property became the main obstacle to be overcome. At the same time, it will attempt to link this approach to the global need for a sustainable evolution of the urban and living realms.

Keywords: social ritual scenographies, spontaneous urban landscapes, substantial hybrid entities, re-introduction of natural phenomena

Procedia PDF Downloads 262
163 Radish Sprout Growth Dependency on LED Color in Plant Factory Experiment

Authors: Tatsuya Kasuga, Hidehisa Shimada, Kimio Oguchi

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Recent rapid progress in ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has advanced the penetration of sensor networks (SNs) and their attractive applications. Agriculture is one of the fields well able to benefit from ICT. Plant factories control several parameters related to plant growth in closed areas such as air temperature, humidity, water, culture medium concentration, and artificial lighting by using computers and AI (Artificial Intelligence) is being researched in order to obtain stable and safe production of vegetables and medicinal plants all year anywhere, and attain self-sufficiency in food. By providing isolation from the natural environment, a plant factory can achieve higher productivity and safe products. However, the biggest issue with plant factories is the return on investment. Profits are tenuous because of the large initial investments and running costs, i.e. electric power, incurred. At present, LED (Light Emitting Diode) lights are being adopted because they are more energy-efficient and encourage photosynthesis better than the fluorescent lamps used in the past. However, further cost reduction is essential. This paper introduces experiments that reveal which color of LED lighting best enhances the growth of cultured radish sprouts. Radish sprouts were cultivated in the experimental environment formed by a hydroponics kit with three cultivation shelves (28 samples per shelf) each with an artificial lighting rack. Seven LED arrays of different color (white, blue, yellow green, green, yellow, orange, and red) were compared with a fluorescent lamp as the control. Lighting duration was set to 12 hours a day. Normal water with no fertilizer was circulated. Seven days after germination, the length, weight and area of leaf of each sample were measured. Electrical power consumption for all lighting arrangements was also measured. Results and discussions: As to average sample length, no clear difference was observed in terms of color. As regards weight, orange LED was less effective and the difference was significant (p < 0.05). As to leaf area, blue, yellow and orange LEDs were significantly less effective. However, all LEDs offered higher productivity per W consumed than the fluorescent lamp. Of the LEDs, the blue LED array attained the best results in terms of length, weight and area of leaf per W consumed. Conclusion and future works: An experiment on radish sprout cultivation under 7 different color LED arrays showed no clear difference in terms of sample size. However, if electrical power consumption is considered, LEDs offered about twice the growth rate of the fluorescent lamp. Among them, blue LEDs showed the best performance. Further cost reduction e.g. low power lighting remains a big issue for actual system deployment. An automatic plant monitoring system with sensors is another study target.

Keywords: electric power consumption, LED color, LED lighting, plant factory

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
162 Revolutionary Wastewater Treatment Technology: An Affordable, Low-Maintenance Solution for Wastewater Recovery and Energy-Saving

Authors: Hady Hamidyan

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As the global population continues to grow, the demand for clean water and effective wastewater treatment becomes increasingly critical. By 2030, global water demand is projected to exceed supply by 40%, driven by population growth, increased water usage, and climate change. Currently, about 4.2 billion people lack access to safely managed sanitation services. The wastewater treatment sector faces numerous challenges, including the need for energy-efficient solutions, cost-effectiveness, ease of use, and low maintenance requirements. This abstract presents a groundbreaking wastewater treatment technology that addresses these challenges by offering an energy-saving approach, wastewater recovery capabilities, and a ready-made, affordable, and user-friendly package with minimal maintenance costs. The unique design of this ready-made package made it possible to eliminate the need for pumps, filters, airlift, and other common equipment. Consequently, it enables sustainable wastewater treatment management with exceptionally low energy and cost requirements, minimizing investment and maintenance expenses. The operation of these packages is based on continuous aeration, which involves injecting oxygen gas or air into the aeration chamber through a tubular diffuser with very small openings. This process supplies the necessary oxygen for aerobic bacteria. The recovered water, which amounts to almost 95% of the input, can be treated to meet specific quality standards, allowing safe reuse for irrigation, industrial processes, or even potable purposes. This not only reduces the strain on freshwater resources but also provides economic benefits by offsetting the costs associated with freshwater acquisition and wastewater discharge. The ready-made, affordable, and user-friendly nature of this technology makes it accessible to a wide range of users, including small communities, industries, and decentralized wastewater treatment systems. The system incorporates user-friendly interfaces, simplified operational procedures, and integrated automation, facilitating easy implementation and operation. Additionally, the use of durable materials, efficient equipment, and advanced monitoring systems significantly reduces maintenance requirements, resulting in low overall life-cycle costs and alleviating the burden on operators and maintenance personnel. In conclusion, the presented wastewater treatment technology offers a comprehensive solution to the challenges faced by the industry. Its energy-saving approach, combined with wastewater recovery capabilities, ensures sustainable resource management and enhances environmental stewardship. This affordable, ready-made, and low-maintenance package promotes broad adoption across various sectors and communities, contributing to a more sustainable future for water and wastewater management.

Keywords: wastewater treatment, energy saving, wastewater recovery, affordable package, low maintenance costs, sustainable resource management, environmental stewardship

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
161 Primary-Color Emitting Photon Energy Storage Nanophosphors for Developing High Contrast Latent Fingerprints

Authors: G. Swati, D. Haranath

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Commercially available long afterglow /persistent phosphors are proprietary materials and hence the exact composition and phase responsible for their luminescent characteristics such as initial intensity and afterglow luminescence time are not known. Further to generate various emission colors, commercially available persistence phosphors are physically blended with fluorescent organic dyes such as rodhamine, kiton and methylene blue etc. Blending phosphors with organic dyes results into complete color coverage in visible spectra, however with time, such phosphors undergo thermal and photo-bleaching. This results in the loss of their true emission color. Hence, the current work is dedicated studies on inorganic based thermally and chemically stable primary color emitting nanophosphors namely SrAl2O4:Eu2+, Dy3+, (CaZn)TiO3:Pr3+, and Sr2MgSi2O7:Eu2+, Dy3+. SrAl2O4: Eu2+, Dy3+ phosphor exhibits a strong excitation in UV and visible region (280-470 nm) with a broad emission peak centered at 514 nm is the characteristic emission of parity allowed 4f65d1→4f7 transitions of Eu2+ (8S7/2→2D5/2). Sunlight excitable Sr2MgSi2O7:Eu2+,Dy3+ nanophosphors emits blue color (464 nm) with Commercial international de I’Eclairage (CIE) coordinates to be (0.15, 0.13) with a color purity of 74 % with afterglow time of > 5 hours for dark adapted human eyes. (CaZn)TiO3:Pr3+ phosphor system possess high color purity (98%) which emits intense, stable and narrow red emission at 612 nm due intra 4f transitions (1D2 → 3H4) with afterglow time of 0.5 hour. Unusual property of persistence luminescence of these nanophoshphors supersedes background effects without losing sensitive information these nanophosphors offer several advantages of visible light excitation, negligible substrate interference, high contrast bifurcation of ridge pattern, non-toxic nature revealing finger ridge details of the fingerprints. Both level 1 and level 2 features from a fingerprint can be studied which are useful for used classification, indexing, comparison and personal identification. facile methodology to extract high contrast fingerprints on non-porous and porous substrates using a chemically inert, visible light excitable, and nanosized phosphorescent label in the dark has been presented. The chemistry of non-covalent physisorption interaction between the long afterglow phosphor powder and sweat residue in fingerprints has been discussed in detail. Real-time fingerprint development on porous and non-porous substrates has also been performed. To conclude, apart from conventional dark vision applications, as prepared primary color emitting afterglow phosphors are potentional candidate for developing high contrast latent fingerprints.

Keywords: fingerprints, luminescence, persistent phosphors, rare earth

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160 Study of Elastic-Plastic Fatigue Crack in Functionally Graded Materials

Authors: Somnath Bhattacharya, Kamal Sharma, Vaibhav Sonkar

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Composite materials emerged in the middle of the 20th century as a promising class of engineering materials providing new prospects for modern technology. Recently, a new class of composite materials known as functionally graded materials (FGMs) has drawn considerable attention of the scientific community. In general, FGMs are defined as composite materials in which the composition or microstructure or both are locally varied so that a certain variation of the local material properties is achieved. This gradual change in composition and microstructure of material is suitable to get gradient of properties and performances. FGMs are synthesized in such a way that they possess continuous spatial variations in volume fractions of their constituents to yield a predetermined composition. These variations lead to the formation of a non-homogeneous macrostructure with continuously varying mechanical and / or thermal properties in one or more than one direction. Lightweight functionally graded composites with high strength to weight and stiffness to weight ratios have been used successfully in aircraft industry and other engineering applications like in electronics industry and in thermal barrier coatings. In the present work, elastic-plastic crack growth problems (using Ramberg-Osgood Model) in an FGM plate under cyclic load has been explored by extended finite element method. Both edge and centre crack problems have been solved by taking additionally holes, inclusions and minor cracks under plane stress conditions. Both soft and hard inclusions have been implemented in the problems. The validity of linear elastic fracture mechanics theory is limited to the brittle materials. A rectangular plate of functionally graded material of length 100 mm and height 200 mm with 100% copper-nickel alloy on left side and 100% ceramic (alumina) on right side is considered in the problem. Exponential gradation in property is imparted in x-direction. A uniform traction of 100 MPa is applied to the top edge of the rectangular domain along y direction. In some problems, domain contains major crack along with minor cracks or / and holes or / and inclusions. Major crack is located the centre of the left edge or the centre of the domain. The discontinuities, such as minor cracks, holes, and inclusions are added either singly or in combination with each other. On the basis of this study, it is found that effect of minor crack in the domain’s failure crack length is minimum whereas soft inclusions have moderate effect and the effect of holes have maximum effect. It is observed that the crack growth is more before the failure in each case when hard inclusions are present in place of soft inclusions.

Keywords: elastic-plastic, fatigue crack, functionally graded materials, extended finite element method (XFEM)

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159 The New Waterfront: Examining the Impact of Planning on Waterfront Regeneration in Da Nang

Authors: Ngoc Thao Linh Dang

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Urban waterfront redevelopment is a global phenomenon, and thousands of schemes are being carried out in large metropoles, medium-sized cities, and even small towns all over the world. This opportunity brings the city back to the river and rediscovers waterfront revitalization as a unique opportunity for cities to reconnect with their unique historical and cultural image. The redevelopment can encourage economic investments, serve as a social platform for public interactions, and allow dwellers to express their rights to the city. Many coastal cities have effectively transformed the perception of their waterfront area through years of redevelopment initiatives, having been neglected for over a century. However, this process has never been easy due to the particular complexity of the space: local culture, history, and market-led development. Moreover, municipal governments work out the balance of diverse stakeholder interests, especially when repurposing high-profile and redundant spaces that form the core of urban economic investment while also accommodating the present and future generations in sustainable environments. Urban critics consistently grapple with the effectiveness of the planning process on the new waterfront, where public spaces are criticized for presenting a lack of opportunities for actual public participation due to privatization and authoritarian governance while no longer doing what they are ‘meant to’: all arise in reaction to the perceived failure of these places to meet expectations. The planning culture and the decision-making context determine the level of public involvement in the planning process; however, in the context of competing market forces and commercial interests dominating cities’ planning agendas, planning for public space in urban waterfronts tends to be for economic gain rather than supporting residents' social needs. These newly pleasing settings satisfied the cluster of middle-class individuals, new communities living along the waterfront, and tourists. A trend of public participatory exclusion is primarily determined by the nature of the planning being undertaken and the decision-making context in which it is embedded. Starting from this context, the research investigates the influence of planning on waterfront regeneration and the role of participation in this process. The research aims to look specifically at the characteristics of the planning process of the waterfront in Da Nang and its impact on the regeneration of the place to regain the city’s historical value and enhance local cultural identity and images. Vietnam runs a top-down planning system where municipal governments have control or power over what happens in their city following the approved planning from the national government. The community has never been excluded from development; however, their participation is still marginalized. In order to ensure social equality, a proposed approach called "bottom-up" should be considered and implemented alongside the traditional "top-down" process and provide a balance of perspectives, as it allows for the voices of the most underprivileged social group involved in a planning project to be heard, rather than ignored. The research provides new insights into the influence of the planning process on the waterfront regeneration in the context of Da Nang.

Keywords: planning process, public participation, top-down planning, waterfront regeneration

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158 Bioresorbable Medicament-Eluting Grommet Tube for Otitis Media with Effusion

Authors: Chee Wee Gan, Anthony Herr Cheun Ng, Yee Shan Wong, Subbu Venkatraman, Lynne Hsueh Yee Lim

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Otitis media with effusion (OME) is the leading cause of hearing loss in children worldwide. Surgery to insert grommet tube into the eardrum is usually indicated for OME unresponsive to antimicrobial therapy. It is the most common surgery for children. However, current commercially available grommet tubes are non-bioresorbable, not drug-treated, with unpredictable duration of retention on the eardrum to ventilate middle ear. Their functionality is impaired when clogged or chronically infected, requiring additional surgery to remove/reinsert grommet tubes. We envisaged that a novel fully bioresorbable grommet tube with sustained antibiotic release technology could address these drawbacks. In this study, drug-loaded bioresorbable poly(L-lactide-co-ε-caprolactone)(PLC) copolymer grommet tubes were fabricated by microinjection moulding technique. In vitro drug release and degradation model of PLC tubes were studied. Antibacterial property was evaluated by incubating PLC tubes with P. aeruginosa broth. Surface morphology was analyzed using scanning electron microscopy. A preliminary animal study was conducted using guinea pigs as an in vivo model to evaluate PLC tubes with and without drug, with commercial Mini Shah grommet tube as comparison. Our in vitro data showed sustained drug release over 3 months. All PLC tubes revealed exponential degradation profiles over time. Modeling predicted loss of tube functionality in water to be approximately 14 weeks and 17 weeks for PLC with and without drug, respectively. Generally, PLC tubes had less bacteria adherence, which were attributed to the much smoother tube surfaces compared to Mini Shah. Antibiotic from PLC tube further made bacteria adherence on surface negligible. They showed neither inflammation nor otorrhea after 18 weeks post-insertion in the eardrums of guinea pigs, but had demonstrated severe degree of bioresorption. Histology confirmed the new PLC tubes were biocompatible. Analyses on the PLC tubes in the eardrums showed bioresorption profiles close to our in vitro degradation models. The bioresorbable antibiotic-loaded grommet tubes showed good predictability in functionality. The smooth surface and sustained release technology reduced the risk of tube infection. Tube functional duration of 18 weeks allowed sufficient ventilation period to treat OME. Our ongoing studies include modifying the surface properties with protein coating, optimizing the drug dosage in the tubes to enhance their performances, evaluating their functional outcome on hearing after full resoption of grommet tube and healing of eardrums, and developing animal model with OME to further validate our in vitro models.

Keywords: bioresorbable polymer, drug release, grommet tube, guinea pigs, otitis media with effusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 449
157 Potential Assessment and Techno-Economic Evaluation of Photovoltaic Energy Conversion System: A Case of Ethiopia Light Rail Transit System

Authors: Asegid Belay Kebede, Getachew Biru Worku

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The Earth and its inhabitants have faced an existential threat as a result of severe manmade actions. Global warming and climate change have been the most apparent manifestations of this threat throughout the world, with increasingly intense heat waves, temperature rises, flooding, sea-level rise, ice sheet melting, and so on. One of the major contributors to this disaster is the ever-increasing production and consumption of energy, which is still primarily fossil-based and emits billions of tons of hazardous GHG. The transportation industry is recognized as the biggest actor in terms of emissions, accounting for 24% of direct CO2 emissions and being one of the few worldwide sectors where CO2 emissions are still growing. Rail transportation, which includes all from light rail transit to high-speed rail services, is regarded as one of the most efficient modes of transportation, accounting for 9% of total passenger travel and 7% of total freight transit. Nonetheless, there is still room for improvement in the transportation sector, which might be done by incorporating alternative and/or renewable energy sources. As a result of these rapidly changing global energy situations and rapidly dwindling fossil fuel supplies, we were driven to analyze the possibility of renewable energy sources for traction applications. Even a small achievement in energy conservation or harnessing might significantly influence the total railway system and have the potential to transform the railway sector like never before. As a result, the paper begins by assessing the potential for photovoltaic (PV) power generation on train rooftops and existing infrastructure such as railway depots, passenger stations, traction substation rooftops, and accessible land along rail lines. As a result, a method based on a Google Earth system (using Helioscopes software) is developed to assess the PV potential along rail lines and on train station roofs. As an example, the Addis Ababa light rail transit system (AA-LRTS) is utilized. The case study examines the electricity-generating potential and economic performance of photovoltaics installed on AALRTS. As a consequence, the overall capacity of solar systems on all stations, including train rooftops, reaches 72.6 MWh per day, with an annual power output of 10.6 GWh. Throughout a 25-year lifespan, the overall CO2 emission reduction and total profit from PV-AA-LRTS can reach 180,000 tons and 892 million Ethiopian birrs, respectively. The PV-AA-LRTS has a 200% return on investment. All PV stations have a payback time of less than 13 years, and the price of solar-generated power is less than $0.08/kWh, which can compete with the benchmark price of coal-fired electricity. Our findings indicate that PV-AA-LRTS has tremendous potential, with both energy and economic advantages.

Keywords: sustainable development, global warming, energy crisis, photovoltaic energy conversion, techno-economic analysis, transportation system, light rail transit

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156 Testing of Infill Walls with Joint Reinforcement Subjected to in Plane Lateral Load

Authors: J. Martin Leal-Graciano, Juan J. Pérez-Gavilán, A. Reyes-Salazar, J. H. Castorena, J. L. Rivera-Salas

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The experimental results about the global behavior of twelve 1:2 scaled reinforced concrete frame subject to in-plane lateral load are presented. The main objective was to generate experimental evidence about the use of steel bars within mortar bed-joints as shear reinforcement in infill walls. Similar to the Canadian and New Zealand standards, the Mexican code includes specifications for this type of reinforcement. However, these specifications were obtained through experimental studies of load-bearing walls, mainly confined walls. Little information is found in the existing literature about the effects of joint reinforcement on the seismic behavior of infill masonry walls. Consequently, the Mexican code establishes the same equations to estimate the contribution of joint reinforcement for both confined walls and infill walls. A confined masonry construction and a reinforced concrete frame infilled with masonry walls have similar appearances. However, substantial differences exist between these two construction systems, which are mainly related to the sequence of construction and to how these structures support vertical and lateral loads. To achieve the objective established, ten reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill walls were built and tested in pairs, having both specimens in the pair identical characteristics except that one of them included joint reinforcement. The variables between pairs were the type of units, the size of the columns of the frame and the aspect ratio of the wall. All cases included tie-columns and tie-beams on the perimeter of the wall to anchor the joint reinforcement. Also, two bare frame with identical characteristic to the infilled frames were tested. The purpose was to investigate the effects of the infill wall on the behavior of the system to in-plane lateral load. In addition, the experimental results were compared with the prediction of the Mexican code. All the specimens were tested in cantilever under reversible cyclic lateral load. To simulate gravity load, constant vertical load was applied on the top of the columns. The results indicate that the contribution of the joint reinforcement to lateral strength depends on the size of the columns of the frame. Larger size columns produce a failure mode that is predominantly a sliding mode. Sliding inhibits the production of new inclined cracks, which are necessary to activate (deform) the joint reinforcement. Regarding the effects of joint reinforcement in the performance of confined masonry walls, many facts were confirmed for infill walls: this type of reinforcement increases the lateral strength of the wall, produces a more distributed cracking and reduces the width of the cracks. Moreover, it reduces the ductility demand of the system at maximum strength. The prediction of the lateral strength provided by the Mexican code is property in some cases; however, the effect of the size of the columns on the contribution of joint reinforcement needs to be better understood.

Keywords: experimental study, Infill wall, Infilled frame, masonry wall

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155 Evaluation of Oral Biofilm Suppression by Carribean Herbal Extracts

Authors: Ravi Teja Chitturi Suryaprakash, Chandrashekhar Unakal, Haytham Al-Bayaty, Duraisamy Saravanakumar

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Background and significance: Oral biofilm formation is a well-known causative factor for caries and periodontal diseases. Scientists over the years have been trying to find a solution against the formation of oral biofilms. Though several advances have been made to understand the microbial ecology and how the bio film survives, it is still an enigma to researchers to find a chemical product that not only can inhibit the formation of oral bio film but also not disturb the oral micro flora required for oral health and not to cause damage to the cells of the oral cavity. One such product that has never been investigated much are herbal preparations. Some of the microorganisms important in the formation of biofilm are Streptococcus mutans, Actinomyces naeslundi, Streptococuss oralis and Prevotella intermedia. The aim of this study was to study the antimicrobial property of some herbal extracts available in Trinidad and Tobago against these pathogens. The significance of this study is that identification of biologically effective plant extracts can result in indigenous development of mouth rinses and tooth pastes that the people can benefit from to not only develop effective but also a cheap solution. Methodology: The extracts from the leaves of Plectranthus ambonicus, Ocmium tenuiflorum, Azadirchata indica, Anacardium occidentale, Psidium guajava were prepared by dissolving them in water. The extracts from the roots of Curcuma longa were prepared similarly and the antimicrobial activity of these six plant extracts was determined by the agar well diffusion method using minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) against Streptococcus mutans, Actinomyces naeslundi, Streptococuss oralis and Prevotella intermedia and compared with chlorhexidine. Results: The six plant extracts showed variable effect on the oral micro-organisms. Ocmium tenuiflorum (16.66 ± 0.44, 14 ± 0.58, 13.33 ± 0.88, 12.83 ± 0.60), Azadirchata indica (17.5 ± 0.28, 14.83 ± 0.17, 15 ± 0.58, 12.83 ± 0.6) and Curcuma longa (16.16 ± 0.44, 13.66 ± 0.88, 12.33 ± 0.88, 11.33 ± 0.67) were found to have highest inhibitory activity against all the four pathogens (Streptococcus mutans, Streptococuss oralis, Actinomyces naeslundi, and Prevotella intermedia) respectively. Conclusion: Although the extracts were not pure compounds we obtained antimicrobial results which determine that they are potent antimicrobial agents. Further derivation of pure compounds from these extracts could be lucrative as it might lead to the development of a cost effective and biologically safe medicine to act against oral biofilms. Acknowledgement: The authors would like to acknowledge the Campus Research and Publication Fund Committee, The University of the West Indies for funding this study and would also like to acknowledge Dr. Leonette Cox, Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Technology, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago for helping to prepare the plant extracts.

Keywords: agar well diffusion method, herbal extracts, minimum inhibitory concentration, oral biofilm forming microorganisms

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
154 Low-Temperature Poly-Si Nanowire Junctionless Thin Film Transistors with Nickel Silicide

Authors: Yu-Hsien Lin, Yu-Ru Lin, Yung-Chun Wu

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This work demonstrates the ultra-thin poly-Si (polycrystalline Silicon) nanowire junctionless thin film transistors (NWs JL-TFT) with nickel silicide contact. For nickel silicide film, this work designs to use two-step annealing to form ultra-thin, uniform and low sheet resistance (Rs) Ni silicide film. The NWs JL-TFT with nickel silicide contact exhibits the good electrical properties, including high driving current (>10⁷ Å), subthreshold slope (186 mV/dec.), and low parasitic resistance. In addition, this work also compares the electrical characteristics of NWs JL-TFT with nickel silicide and non-silicide contact. Nickel silicide techniques are widely used for high-performance devices as the device scaling due to the source/drain sheet resistance issue. Therefore, the self-aligned silicide (salicide) technique is presented to reduce the series resistance of the device. Nickel silicide has several advantages including low-temperature process, low silicon consumption, no bridging failure property, smaller mechanical stress, and smaller contact resistance. The junctionless thin-film transistor (JL-TFT) is fabricated simply by heavily doping the channel and source/drain (S/D) regions simultaneously. Owing to the special doping profile, JL-TFT has some advantages such as lower thermal the budget which can integrate with high-k/metal-gate easier than conventional MOSFETs (Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistors), longer effective channel length than conventional MOSFETs, and avoidance of complicated source/drain engineering. To solve JL-TFT has turn-off problem, JL-TFT needs ultra-thin body (UTB) structure to reach fully depleted channel region in off-state. On the other hand, the drive current (Iᴅ) is declined as transistor features are scaled. Therefore, this work demonstrates ultra thin poly-Si nanowire junctionless thin film transistors with nickel silicide contact. This work investigates the low-temperature formation of nickel silicide layer by physical-chemical deposition (PVD) of a 15nm Ni layer on the poly-Si substrate. Notably, this work designs to use two-step annealing to form ultrathin, uniform and low sheet resistance (Rs) Ni silicide film. The first step was promoted Ni diffusion through a thin interfacial amorphous layer. Then, the unreacted metal was lifted off after the first step. The second step was annealing for lower sheet resistance and firmly merged the phase.The ultra-thin poly-Si nanowire junctionless thin film transistors NWs JL-TFT with nickel silicide contact is demonstrated, which reveals high driving current (>10⁷ Å), subthreshold slope (186 mV/dec.), and low parasitic resistance. In silicide film analysis, the second step of annealing was applied to form lower sheet resistance and firmly merge the phase silicide film. In short, the NWs JL-TFT with nickel silicide contact has exhibited a competitive short-channel behavior and improved drive current.

Keywords: poly-Si, nanowire, junctionless, thin-film transistors, nickel silicide

Procedia PDF Downloads 235
153 Motives for Reshoring from China to Europe: A Hierarchical Classification of Companies

Authors: Fabienne Fel, Eric Griette

Abstract:

Reshoring, whether concerning back-reshoring or near-reshoring, is a quite recent phenomenon. Despite the economic and political interest of this topic, academic research questioning determinants of reshoring remains rare. Our paper aims at contributing to fill this gap. In order to better understand the reasons for reshoring, we conducted a study among 280 French firms during spring 2016, three-quarters of which sourced, or source, in China. 105 firms in the sample have reshored all or part of their Chinese production or supply in recent years, and we aimed to establish a typology of the motives that drove them to this decision. We asked our respondents about the history of their Chinese supplies, their current reshoring strategies, and their motivations. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 22 and SPAD 8. Our results show that change in commercial and financial terms with China is the first motive explaining the current reshoring movement from this country (it applies to 54% of our respondents). A change in corporate strategy is the second motive (30% of our respondents); the reshoring decision follows a change in companies’ strategies (upgrading, implementation of a CSR policy, or a 'lean management' strategy). The third motive (14% of our sample) is a mere correction of the initial offshoring decision, considered as a mistake (under-estimation of hidden costs, non-quality and non-responsiveness problems). Some authors emphasize that developing a short supply chain, involving geographic proximity between design and production, gives a competitive advantage to companies wishing to offer innovative products. Admittedly 40% of our respondents indicate that this motive could have played a part in their decision to reshore, but this reason was not enough for any of them and is not an intrinsic motive leading to leaving Chinese suppliers. Having questioned our respondents about the importance given to various problems leading them to reshore, we then performed a Principal Components Analysis (PCA), associated with an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC), based on Ward criterion, so as to point out more specific motivations. Three main classes of companies should be distinguished: -The 'Cost Killers' (23% of the sample), which reshore their supplies from China only because of higher procurement costs and so as to find lower costs elsewhere. -The 'Realists' (50% of the sample), giving equal weight or importance to increasing procurement costs in China and to the quality of their supplies (to a large extend). Companies being part of this class tend to take advantage of this changing environment to change their procurement strategy, seeking suppliers offering better quality and responsiveness. - The 'Voluntarists' (26% of the sample), which choose to reshore their Chinese supplies regardless of higher Chinese costs, to obtain better quality and greater responsiveness. We emphasize that if the main driver for reshoring from China is indeed higher local costs, it is should not be regarded as an exclusive motivation; 77% of the companies in the sample, are also seeking, sometimes exclusively, more reactive suppliers, liable to quality, respect for the environment and intellectual property.

Keywords: China, procurement, reshoring, strategy, supplies

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152 Unlocking New Room of Production in Brown Field; ‎Integration of Geological Data Conditioned 3D Reservoir ‎Modelling of Lower Senonian Matulla Formation, RAS ‎Budran Field, East Central Gulf of Suez, Egypt

Authors: Nader Mohamed

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The Late Cretaceous deposits are well developed through-out Egypt. This is due to a ‎transgression phase associated with the subsidence caused by the neo-Tethyan rift event that ‎took place across the northern margin of Africa, resulting in a period of dominantly marine ‎deposits in the Gulf of Suez. The Late Cretaceous Nezzazat Group represents the Cenomanian, ‎Turonian and clastic sediments of the Lower Senonian. The Nezzazat Group has been divided ‎into four formations namely, from base to top, the Raha Formation, the Abu Qada Formation, ‎the Wata Formation and the Matulla Formation. The Cenomanian Raha and the Lower Senonian ‎Matulla formations are the most important clastic sequence in the Nezzazat Group because they ‎provide the highest net reservoir thickness and the highest net/gross ratio. This study emphasis ‎on Matulla formation located in the eastern part of the Gulf of Suez. The three stratigraphic ‎surface sections (Wadi Sudr, Wadi Matulla and Gabal Nezzazat) which represent the exposed ‎Coniacian-Santonian sediments in Sinai are used for correlating Matulla sediments of Ras ‎Budran field. Cutting description, petrographic examination, log behaviors, biostratigraphy with ‎outcrops are used to identify the reservoir characteristics, lithology, facies environment logs and ‎subdivide the Matulla formation into three units. The lower unit is believed to be the main ‎reservoir where it consists mainly of sands with shale and sandy carbonates, while the other ‎units are mainly carbonate with some streaks of shale and sand. Reservoir modeling is an ‎effective technique that assists in reservoir management as decisions concerning development ‎and depletion of hydrocarbon reserves, So It was essential to model the Matulla reservoir as ‎accurately as possible in order to better evaluate, calculate the reserves and to determine the ‎most effective way of recovering as much of the petroleum economically as possible. All ‎available data on Matulla formation are used to build the reservoir structure model, lithofacies, ‎porosity, permeability and water saturation models which are the main parameters that describe ‎the reservoirs and provide information on effective evaluation of the need to develop the oil ‎potentiality of the reservoir. This study has shown the effectiveness of; 1) the integration of ‎geological data to evaluate and subdivide Matulla formation into three units. 2) Lithology and ‎facies environment interpretation which helped in defining the nature of deposition of Matulla ‎formation. 3) The 3D reservoir modeling technology as a tool for adequate understanding of the ‎spatial distribution of property and in addition evaluating the unlocked new reservoir areas of ‎Matulla formation which have to be drilled to investigate and exploit the un-drained oil. 4) This ‎study led to adding a new room of production and additional reserves to Ras Budran field. ‎

Keywords: geology, oil and gas, geoscience, sequence stratigraphy

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151 Identifying Apis millefera Strains in Akkar District (North Lebanon) Using Mitochondrial DNA: A Step in Preserving the Local Strain A. m. Syriaca

Authors: Zeina Nasr, Bashar Merheb

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The honey bee is a social insect that had driven the human interest much more than any other organism. Beekeeping practices dated the appearance of Man on earth and now it provides a hobby or a secondary work that contributes to the family revenue and requires a little time engagement and money investment. Honey production is not the only contribution of honey bees to the economy, since honey bees play an important role in the pollination. Bee keeping in Lebanon is an important part of the agricultural economy. However, a growing concern about bees is spreading globally, due to an accelerated decline of bees colonies. This raises the alert to preserve and protect local bee strains against uncontrolled introduction of foreign strains and invasive parasitic species. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers are commonly used in studying genetic variation in the Apis mellifera species. The DraI-COI-COII test is based on the analysis of the intergenic region between the two genes COI and COII. The different honey bee strains differ in the presence or absence of the p sequence and the number of Q sequences present. A. m. syriaca belonging to the lineage Z, is the native honey bee subspecies in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Palestine. A. m. syriaca is known for its high defensiveness, even though it has many important advantages. However, commercial breeder strains, such as the Italian (A. m. ligustica), and Carniolan (A. m. carnica) strains, have been introduced by beekeepers and regularly used for honey production. This raises worries about the disappearance of the local subspecies. It is obvious that identifying A. m. syriaca colonies and protecting them against uncontrolled mating with other bee strains is a crucial step to protect and improve the original local strain. This study aims to reveal the existing sub-species of honey bee in Akkar – Lebanon and to assess the influence of introgression on the hybridization of the local strain. This will help to identify areas of pure A.m. syriaca population over this district to be considered in choosing syriaca reserves. We collected samples of bees from different regions of Akkar district in order to perform mtDNA analysis. We determined the restriction fragments length of the intergenic region COI-COII, using the restriction enzyme DraI. The results showed both the C and the Z lineages. Four restriction patterns were identified among the restriction maps of the studied samples. The most abundant mitochondrial lineage is the Z lineage constituting about 60% of the identified samples. Al-Dreib region reported the lowest introgression with foreign mtDNA of 21% making it the most suitable area for a genetic reserve of syriaca in Akkar based on its lowest introgression and suitable environment in addition to the attitude of local beekeepers to conserve the local strain. Finally, this study is the first step in constructing conservation programs for the preservation of the local strain and should be generalized to the whole Lebanese population, consistent with the effort done in neighboring countries.

Keywords: Akkar Lebanon, Apis millefera syriaca, DraI-COI-COII test, mitochondrial DNA

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150 Influence of the Use of Fruits Byproducts on the Lipid Profile of Hermetia illucens, Tenebrio molitor and Zophoba morio Larvae

Authors: Rebeca P Ramos-Bueno, Maria Jose Gonzalez-Fernandez, Rosa M. Moreno-Zamora, Antonia Barros Heras, Yolanda Serrano Alonso, Carolina Sanchez Barranco

Abstract:

Insects are a new source of fatty acids (FA), so they are considered a sustainable and environmentally friendly alternative for both animal feed and the human diet, and furthermore, their harvesting/rearing require a low-tech and low capital investment. For that reason, lipids obtained by insect breeding open interesting possibilities with alimentary and industrial purposes, i.e., the production of biodiesel. Particularly, certain insect species, especially during the larval stage, contain high proportions of fat which is highly dependent on their feed and stage of development. Among them, Hermetia illucens larvae can be bred on food wastes to produce fat- and protein-rich raw materials for food by-product management. So, insects can act as excellent bioconverters of organic waste to nutrient-rich materials. In this regard, the aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of fruit byproducts on the FA compositions of Tenebrio molitor, Zophoba morio, and H. illucens larvae. Firstly, oil was extracted with the green solvent ethyl acetate, and FA methyl ester was obtained and analyzed by GC to show the FA profile. In addition, the triacylglycerol (TAG) profile was obtained by HPLC. Dehydrated watermelon, tomato, and papaya by-products, as well as wheat-based control feed, were assayed. High FA content was reached by Z. morio larvae fed with all fruits; however, no differences were shown in lipid profile with any change. It is worth highlighting that both Z. morio and H. illucens could be selected as the best candidates for biodiesel production due to their high content of saturated FA. On the other hand, T. molitor larvae showed a higher content of monounsaturated FA than control larvae, whereas the n-6 polyunsaturated FA content decreased in larvae fed with fruits. This result indicates that the improvement of the FA profile of Tenebrio can depend on both the type of feeding and the intended use. The lipid profile of H. illucens larvae fed with papaya and tomato showed a slight increase in the content of α-linoleic acid (ALA, 18:3n3). This FA is the precursor of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n3), which plays an important role as a component of structural lipids in cell membranes as well as in the synthesis of eicosanoids, protecting and resolving. Also, it was evaluated the TAG profile of Z. morio larvae due to their highest oil content. The results showed a high oleic acid (OA, 18:1n9) content, which displays modulatory effects in a wide range of physiological functions, having anti-inflammatory and anti-atherogenic properties. In conclusion, this study clearly shows that Z. morio and H. illucens larvae constitute an alternative source of OA- and ALA-rich oils, respectively, which can be devoted for food use, as well as for using in the food and pharmaceutical industries, with agronomic implications. Finally, although the profile of Z. morio was not improved with fruit feeding, this kind of feeding could be used due to its low environmental impact.

Keywords: fatty acids, fruit byproducts, Hermetia illucens, Zophoba morio, Tenebrio molitor, insect rearing

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
149 Experimental Study of Infill Walls with Joint Reinforcement Subjected to In-Plane Lateral Load

Authors: J. Martin Leal-Graciano, Juan J. Pérez-Gavilán, A. Reyes-Salazar, J. H. Castorena, J. L. Rivera-Salas

Abstract:

The experimental results about the global behavior of twelve 1:2 scaled reinforced concrete frames subject to in-plane lateral load are presented. The main objective was to generate experimental evidence about the use of steel bars within mortar bed joints as shear reinforcement in infill walls. Similar to the Canadian and New Zealand standards, the Mexican code includes specifications for this type of reinforcement. However, these specifications were obtained through experimental studies of load-bearing walls, mainly confined walls. Little information is found in the existing literature about the effects of joint reinforcement on the seismic behavior of infill masonry walls. Consequently, the Mexican code establishes the same equations to estimate the contribution of joint reinforcement for both confined walls and infill walls. Confined masonry construction and a reinforced concrete frame infilled with masonry walls have similar appearances. However, substantial differences exist between these two construction systems, which are mainly related to the sequence of construction and to how these structures support vertical and lateral loads. To achieve the objective established, ten reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill walls were built and tested in pairs, having both specimens in the pair identical characteristics except that one of them included joint reinforcement. The variables between pairs were the type of units, the size of the columns of the frame, and the aspect ratio of the wall. All cases included tie columns and tie beams on the perimeter of the wall to anchor the joint reinforcement. Also, two bare frames with identical characteristics to the infilled frames were tested. The purpose was to investigate the effects of the infill wall on the behavior of the system to in-plane lateral load. In addition, the experimental results were compared with the prediction of the Mexican code. All the specimens were tested in a cantilever under reversible cyclic lateral load. To simulate gravity load, constant vertical load was applied on the top of the columns. The results indicate that the contribution of the joint reinforcement to lateral strength depends on the size of the columns of the frame. Larger size columns produce a failure mode that is predominantly a sliding mode. Sliding inhibits the production of new inclined cracks, which are necessary to activate (deform) the joint reinforcement. Regarding the effects of joint reinforcement in the performance of confined masonry walls, many facts were confirmed for infill walls. This type of reinforcement increases the lateral strength of the wall, produces a more distributed cracking, and reduces the width of the cracks. Moreover, it reduces the ductility demand of the system at maximum strength. The prediction of the lateral strength provided by the Mexican code is a property in some cases; however, the effect of the size of the columns on the contribution of joint reinforcement needs to be better understood.

Keywords: experimental study, infill wall, infilled frame, masonry wall

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148 Stock Prediction and Portfolio Optimization Thesis

Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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147 Coordinative Remote Sensing Observation Technology for a High Altitude Barrier Lake

Authors: Zhang Xin

Abstract:

Barrier lakes are lakes formed by storing water in valleys, river valleys or riverbeds after being blocked by landslide, earthquake, debris flow, and other factors. They have great potential safety hazards. When the water is stored to a certain extent, it may burst in case of strong earthquake or rainstorm, and the lake water overflows, resulting in large-scale flood disasters. In order to ensure the safety of people's lives and property in the downstream, it is very necessary to monitor the barrier lake. However, it is very difficult and time-consuming to manually monitor the barrier lake in high altitude areas due to the harsh climate and steep terrain. With the development of earth observation technology, remote sensing monitoring has become one of the main ways to obtain observation data. Compared with a single satellite, multi-satellite remote sensing cooperative observation has more advantages; its spatial coverage is extensive, observation time is continuous, imaging types and bands are abundant, it can monitor and respond quickly to emergencies, and complete complex monitoring tasks. Monitoring with multi-temporal and multi-platform remote sensing satellites can obtain a variety of observation data in time, acquire key information such as water level and water storage capacity of the barrier lake, scientifically judge the situation of the barrier lake and reasonably predict its future development trend. In this study, The Sarez Lake, which formed on February 18, 1911, in the central part of the Pamir as a result of blockage of the Murgab River valley by a landslide triggered by a strong earthquake with magnitude of 7.4 and intensity of 9, is selected as the research area. Since the formation of Lake Sarez, it has aroused widespread international concern about its safety. At present, the use of mechanical methods in the international analysis of the safety of Lake Sarez is more common, and remote sensing methods are seldom used. This study combines remote sensing data with field observation data, and uses the 'space-air-ground' joint observation technology to study the changes in water level and water storage capacity of Lake Sarez in recent decades, and evaluate its safety. The situation of the collapse is simulated, and the future development trend of Lake Sarez is predicted. The results show that: 1) in recent decades, the water level of Lake Sarez has not changed much and remained at a stable level; 2) unless there is a strong earthquake or heavy rain, it is less likely that the Lake Sarez will be broken under normal conditions, 3) lake Sarez will remain stable in the future, but it is necessary to establish an early warning system in the Lake Sarez area for remote sensing of the area, 4) the coordinative remote sensing observation technology is feasible for the high altitude barrier lake of Sarez.

Keywords: coordinative observation, disaster, remote sensing, geographic information system, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 125