Search results for: housing prediction

Authors: Anele Horn, Amanda Van Eeden

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The emphasis on the challenges posed by continued urbanisation, especially in developing countries has resulted in urban sprawl often researched and analysed in metropolitan urban areas, but rarely in small and medium towns. Consequently, there exists no comparative instrument between the proportional extent of urban sprawl in metropolitan areas measured against that of small and medium towns. This research proposes an Urban Sprawl Index as a possible tool to comparatively analyse the extent of urban sprawl between cities and towns of different sizes. The index can also be used over the longer term by authorities developing spatial policy to track the success or failure of specific tools intended to curb urban sprawl. In South Africa, as elsewhere in the world, the last two decades witnessed a proliferation of legislation and spatial policies to limit urban sprawl and contain the physical expansion and development of urban areas, but the measurement of the successes or failures of these instruments intending to curb expansive land development has remained a largely unattainable goal, largely as a result of the absence of an appropriate measure of proportionate comparison. As a result of the spatial political history of Apartheid, urban areas acquired a spatial form that contributed to the formation of single-core cities with far reaching and wide-spreading peripheral development, either in the form of affluent suburbs or as a result of post-Apartheid programmes such as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (1995) which, in an attempt to assist the immediate housing shortage, favoured the establishment of single dwelling residential units for low income communities on single plots on affordable land at the urban periphery. This invariably contributed to urban sprawl and even though this programme has since been abandoned, the trend towards low density residential development continues. The research area is the Western Cape Province in South Africa, which in all aspects exhibit the spatial challenges described above. In academia and popular media the City of Cape Town (the only Metropolitan authority in the province) has received the lion’s share of focus in terms of critique on urban development and spatial planning, however, the smaller towns and cities in the Western Cape arguably received much less public attention and were spared the naming and shaming of being unsustainable urban areas in terms of land consumption and physical expansion. The Urban Sprawl Index for the Western Cape (USIWC) put forward by this research enables local authorities in the Western Cape Province to measure the extent of urban sprawl proportionately and comparatively to other cities in the province, thereby acquiring a means of measuring the success of the spatial instruments employed to limit urban expansion and inefficient land consumption. In development of the USIWC the research made use of satellite data for reference years 2001 and 2011 and population growth data extracted from the national census, also for base years 2001 and 2011.

Keywords: urban sprawl, index, Western Cape, South Africa

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Authors: Zuhal Eltayeb Awad

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Alryad neighborhood is located in Khartoum town– the administrative center of the Capital of Sudan. The neighborhood is one of the high-income residential areas with villa type development of low-density. It was planned and developed in 1972 with large plots (600-875m²), wide crossing roads and balanced environment. Recently the area transformed into more compact urban form of high density, mixed-use integrated development with more intensive use of land; multi-storied apartments. The most important socio-economic process in the neighborhood has been the commercialization and deinitialization of the area in connect with the displacement of the residential function. This transformation affected the quality of the neighborhood and the inter-related features of the built environment. A case study approach was chosen to gather the necessary qualitative and quantitative data. A detailed survey on existing development pattern was carried out over the whole area of Alryad. Data on the built and social environment of the neighborhoods were collected through observations, interviews and secondary data sources. The paper reflected a theoretical and empirical interest in the particular characteristics of compact neighborhood with high density, and mixed land uses and their effect on social wellbeing of the residents all in the context of the sustainable development. The research problem is focused on the challenges of transformation that associated with compact neighborhood that created multiple urban problems, e.g., stress of essential services (water supply, electricity, and drainage), congestion of streets and demand for parking. The main objective of the study is to analyze the transformation of this area from residential use to commercial and administrative use. The study analyzed the current situation of the neighborhood compared to the five principles of sustainable neighborhood prepared by UN Habitat. The study found that the neighborhood is experienced changes that occur to inner-city residential areas and the process of change of the neighborhood was originated by external forces due to the declining economic situation of the whole country. It is evident that non-residential uses have taken place uncontrolled, unregulated and haphazardly that led to damage the residential environment and deficiency in infrastructure. The quality of urban life and in particular on levels of privacy was reduced, the neighborhood changed gradually to be a central business district that provides services to the whole Khartoum town. The change of house type may be attributed to a demand-led housing market and absence of policy. The results showed that Alryad is not fully sustainable and self-contained, street network characteristics and mixed land-uses development are compatible with the principles of sustainability. The area of streets represents 27.4% of the total area of the neighborhood. Residential density is 4,620 people/ km², that is lower than the recommendations, and the limited block land-use specialization is higher than 10% of the blocks. Most inhabitants have a high income so that there is no social mix in the neighborhood. The study recommended revision of the current zoning regulations in order to control and regulate undesirable development in the neighborhood and provide new solutions which allow promoting the neighborhood sustainable development.

Keywords: compact neighborhood, land uses, mixed use, residential area, transformation

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Authors: Timothy Gray

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This paper will present work and discuss lessons learned during a semester-long travel study based in Southeast Asia, which was run in the Spring Semester of 2019 and again in the summer of 2023. The first travel group consisted of fifteen students, and the second group consisted of twelve students ranging from second-year to graduate level, student participants majoring in either architecture or planning. Students worked in interdisciplinary teams, each team beginning their travel study, living together in a separate small town for over a month in (relatively) remote conditions in rural Thailand. Students became intimately familiar with these towns, forged strong personal relationships, and built reservoirs of knowledge one conversation at a time. Rather than impose external ideas and solutions, students were asked to learn from and be open to lessons from the people and the place. The following design statement was used as a point of departure for their investigations: It is our shared premise that architecture exists in small villages and towns of Southeast Asia in the ingenuity of the people, that architecture exists in a shared language of making, modifying, and reusing. It is a modest but vibrant architecture, an architecture that is alive and evolving, an architecture that is small in scale, accessible, and one that emerges from the people. It is an architecture that can exist in a modified bicycle, a woven bamboo bridge, or a self-built community. Students were challenged to engage in existing conditions as design professionals, both empowering and lending coherence to the energies that already existed in the place. As one of the student teams noted in their design narrative: “During our field study, we had the unique opportunity to tour a number of informal settlements and meet and talk to residents through interpreters. We found that many of the residents work in nearby factories for dollars a day. Others find employment in self-generated informal economies such as hand carving and textiles. Despite extreme poverty, we found these places to be vibrant and full of life as people navigate these challenging conditions to live lives with purpose and dignity.” Students worked together with local community members and colleagues to develop a series of varied proposals that emerged from their interrogations of place and partnered with community members and professional colleagues in the development of these proposals. Project partners included faculty and student colleagues Yangon University, the mayor's Office, Planning Department Officials and religious leaders in Sawankhalok, Thailand, and community leaders in Natonchan, Thailand, to name a few. This paper will present a series of student community-based design projects that emerged from these conditions. The paper will also discuss this model of travel study as a way of building an architecture which uses social and cultural issues as a catalyst for design. The paper will discuss lessons relative to sustainable development that the Western students learned through their travels in Southeast Asia.

Keywords: travel study, CAPasia, architecture of empowerment, modular housing

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Authors: Lucy Lugo Mawang

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Educational Psychologists have highlighted the significance of creativity in education. Likewise, a fundamental objective of music education concern the development of students’ musical creativity potential. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between motivation strategies and musical creativity, and establish the prediction equation of musical creativity. The study used purposive sampling and census to select 201 fourth-form music students (139 females/ 62 males), mainly from public secondary schools in Kenya. The mean age of participants was 17.24 years (SD = .78). Framed upon self- determination theory and the dichotomous model of achievement motivation, the study adopted an ex post facto research design. A self-report measure, the Achievement Goal Questionnaire-Revised (AGQ-R) was used in data collection for the independent variable. Musical creativity was based on a creative music composition task and measured by the Consensual Musical Creativity Assessment Scale (CMCAS). Data collected in two separate sessions within an interval of one month. The questionnaire was administered in the first session, lasting approximately 20 minutes. The second session was for notation of participants’ creative composition. The results indicated a positive correlation r(199) = .39, p ˂ .01 between musical creativity and intrinsic music motivation. Conversely, negative correlation r(199) = -.19, p < .01 was observed between musical creativity and extrinsic music motivation. The equation for predicting musical creativity from music motivation strategies was significant F(2, 198) = 20.8, p < .01, with R2 = .17. Motivation strategies accounted for approximately (17%) of the variance in participants’ musical creativity. Intrinsic music motivation had the highest significant predictive value (β = .38, p ˂ .01) on musical creativity. In the exploratory analysis, a significant mean difference t(118) = 4.59, p ˂ .01 in musical creativity for intrinsic and extrinsic music motivation was observed in favour of intrinsically motivated participants. Further, a significant gender difference t(93.47) = 4.31, p ˂ .01 in musical creativity was observed, with male participants scoring higher than females. However, there was no significant difference in participants’ musical creativity based on age. The study recommended that music educators should strive to enhance intrinsic music motivation among students. Specifically, schools should create conducive environments and have interventions for the development of intrinsic music motivation since it is the most facilitative motivation strategy in predicting musical creativity.

Keywords: extrinsic music motivation, intrinsic music motivation, musical creativity, music composition

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Authors: Percy Galvez, Anatoly Petukhin, Paul Somerville, Ken Miyakoshi, Kojiro Irikura, Daniel Peter

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Physics-based dynamic rupture modelling is necessary for estimating parameters such as rupture velocity and slip rate function that are important for ground motion simulation, but poorly resolved by observations, e.g. by seismic source inversion. In order to generate a large number of physically self-consistent rupture models, whose rupture process is consistent with the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of past earthquakes, we use multicycle simulations under the heterogeneous rate-and-state (RS) friction law for a 45deg dip-slip fault. We performed a parametrization study by fully dynamic rupture modeling, and then, a set of spontaneous source models was generated in a large magnitude range (Mw > 7.0). In order to validate rupture models, we compare the source scaling relations vs. seismic moment Mo for the modeled rupture area S, as well as average slip Dave and the slip asperity area Sa, with similar scaling relations from the source inversions. Ground motions were also computed from our models. Their peak ground velocities (PGV) agree well with the GMPE values. We obtained good agreement of the permanent surface offset values with empirical relations. From the heterogeneous rupture models, we analyzed parameters, which are critical for ground motion simulations, i.e. distributions of slip, slip rate, rupture initiation points, rupture velocities, and source time functions. We studied cross-correlations between them and with the friction weakening distance Dc value, the only initial heterogeneity parameter in our modeling. The main findings are: (1) high slip-rate areas coincide with or are located on an outer edge of the large slip areas, (2) ruptures have a tendency to initiate in small Dc areas, and (3) high slip-rate areas correlate with areas of small Dc, large rupture velocity and short rise-time.

Keywords: earthquake dynamics, strong ground motion prediction, seismic engineering, source characterization

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Authors: Maria M. Calheiros, Carla Silva, Eunice Magalhães

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Professionals working in child protection services (CPS) need to have common and clear criteria to identify cases of maltreatment and to differentiate levels of severity in order to determine when CPS intervention is required, its nature and urgency, and, in most countries, the service that will be in charge of the case (community or specialized CPS). Actually, decision-making process is complex in CPS, and, for that reason, such criteria are particularly important for who significantly contribute to that decision-making in child maltreatment cases. The main objective of this presentation is to describe the Maltreatment Severity Assessment Questionnaire (MSQ), specifically designed to be used by professionals in the CPS, which adopts a multidimensional approach and uses a scale of severity within subtypes. Specifically, we aim to provide evidence of validity and reliability of this tool, in order to improve the quality and validity of assessment processes and, consequently, the decision making in CPS. The total sample was composed of 1000 children and/or adolescents (51.1% boys), aged between 0 and 18 years old (M = 9.47; DP = 4.51). All the participants were referred to official institutions of the children and youth protective system. Children and adolescents maltreatment (abuse, neglect experiences and sexual abuse) were assessed with 21 items of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire (MSQ), by professionals of CPS. Each item (sub-type) was composed of four descriptors of increasing severity. Professionals rated the level of severity, using a 4-point scale (1= minimally severe; 2= moderately severe; 3= highly severe; 4= extremely severe). The construct validity of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire was assessed with a holdout method, performing an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) followed by a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The final solution comprised 18 items organized in three factors 47.3% of variance explained. ‘Physical neglect’ (eight items) was defined by parental omissions concerning the insurance and monitoring of the child’s physical well-being and health, namely in terms of clothing, hygiene, housing conditions and contextual environmental security. ‘Physical and Psychological Abuse’ (four items) described abusive physical and psychological actions, namely, coercive/punitive disciplinary methods, physically violent methods or verbal interactions that offend and denigrate the child, with the potential to disrupt psychological attributes (e.g., self-esteem). ‘Psychological neglect’ (six items) involved omissions related to children emotional development, mental health monitoring, school attendance, development needs, as well as inappropriate relationship patterns with attachment figures. Results indicated a good reliability of all the factors. The assessment of child maltreatment cases with MSQ could have a set of practical and research implications: a) It is a valid and reliable multidimensional instrument to measure child maltreatment, b) It is an instrument integrating the co-occurrence of various types of maltreatment and a within-subtypes scale of severity; c) Specifically designed for professionals, it may assist them in decision-making processes; d) More than using case file reports to evaluate maltreatment experiences, researchers could guide more appropriately their research about determinants and consequences of maltreatment.

Keywords: assessment, maltreatment, children and youth, decision-making

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Authors: Tomasz Stenzel, Daria Dziewulska, Ewa Łukaszuk, Joy Custer, Simona Kraberger, Arvind Varsani

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Viral diseases, especially those leading to impairment of the immune system, are among the most important problems in avian pathology. However, there is not much data available on this subject other than commercial poultry bird species. Recently, increasing attention has been paid to racing pigeons, which have been refined for many years in terms of their ability to return to their place of origin. Currently, these birds are used for races at distances from 100 to 1000 km, and winning pigeons are highly valuable. The rearing system of racing pigeons contradicts the principles of biosecurity, as birds originating from various breeding facilities are commonly transported and reared in “One Loft Race” (OLR) facilities. This favors the spread of multiple infections and provides conditions for the development of novel variants of various pathogens through recombination. One of the most significant viruses occurring in this avian species is the pigeon circovirus (PiCV), which is detected in ca. 70% of pigeons. Circoviruses are characterized by vast genetic diversity which is due to, among other things, the recombination phenomenon. It consists of an exchange of fragments of genetic material among various strains of the virus during the infection of one organism. The rate and intensity of the development of PiCV recombinants have not been determined so far. For this reason, an experiment was performed to investigate the frequency of development of novel PiCV recombinants in racing pigeons kept in OLR-type conditions. 15 racing pigeons originating from 5 different breeding facilities, subclinically infected with various PiCV strains, were housed in one room for eight weeks, which was supposed to mimic the conditions of OLR rearing. Blood and swab samples were collected from birds every seven days to recover complete PiCV genomes that were amplified through Rolling Circle Amplification (RCA), cloned, sequenced, and subjected to bioinformatic analyses aimed at determining the genetic diversity and the dynamics of recombination phenomenon among the viruses. In addition, virus shedding rate/level of viremia, expression of the IFN-γ and interferon-related genes, and anti-PiCV antibodies were determined to enable the complete analysis of the course of infection in the flock. Initial results have shown that 336 full PiCV genomes were obtained, exhibiting nucleotide similarity ranging from 86.6 to 100%, and 8 of those were recombinants originating from viruses of different lofts of origin. The first recombinant appeared after seven days of experiment, but most of the recombinants appeared after 14 and 21 days of joint housing. The level of viremia and virus shedding was the highest in the 2nd week of the experiment and gradually decreased to the end of the experiment, which partially corresponded with Mx 1 gene expression and antibody dynamics. The results have shown that the OLR pigeon-rearing system could play a significant role in spreading infectious agents such as circoviruses and contributing to PiCV evolution through recombination. Therefore, it is worth considering whether a popular gambling game such as pigeon racing is sensible from both animal welfare and epidemiological point of view.

Keywords: pigeon circovirus, recombination, evolution, one loft race

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Authors: Nilam Bano, Uzma Iram

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Globally, the dilemma of undernutrition has become a notable concern for the researchers, academicians, and policymakers because of its severe consequences for many centuries. The nutritional deficiencies create hurdles for the people to achieve goals related to live a better lifestyle. Not only at micro level but also at the macro level, the consequences of undernutrition affect the economic progress of the country. The initial five years of a child’s life are considered critical for the physical growth and brain development. In this regard, children require special care and good quality food (nutrient intake) to fulfill their nutritional demand of the growing body. Having the sensitive stature and health, children specially under the age of 5 years are more vulnerable to the poor economic, housing, environmental and other social conditions. Beside confronting economic challenges and political upheavals, Pakistan is also going through from a rough patch in the context of social development. Majority of the children are facing serious health problems in the absence of required nutrition. The complexity of this issue is getting severe day by day and specially children are left behind with different type of immune problems and vitamins and mineral deficiencies. It is noted that children from the well-off background are less likely affected by the undernutrition. In order to underline this issue, the present study aims to highlight the existing nutritional inequalities among the children of under five years in Pakistan. Moreover, this study strives to decompose those factors that severely affect the existing nutritional inequality and standing in the queue to capture the consideration of concerned authorities. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012-13 was employed to assess the relevant indicators of undernutrition such as stunting, wasting, underweight and associated socioeconomic factors. The objectives were executed through the utilization of the relevant empirical techniques. Concentration indices were constructed to measure the nutritional inequalities by utilizing three measures of undernutrition; stunting, wasting and underweight. In addition to it, the decomposition analysis following the logistic regression was made to unfold the determinants that severely affect the nutritional inequalities. The negative values of concentration indices illustrate that children from the marginalized background are affected by the undernutrition more than their counterparts who belong from rich households. Furthermore, the result of decomposition analysis indicates that child age, size of a child at birth, wealth index, household size, parents’ education, mother’s health and place of residence are the most contributing factors in the prevalence of existing nutritional inequalities. Considering the result of the study, it is suggested to the policymakers to design policies in a way so that the health sector of Pakistan can stimulate in a productive manner. Increasing the number of effective health awareness programs for mothers would create a notable difference. Moreover, the education of the parents must be concerned by the policymakers as it has a significant association with the present research in terms of eradicating the nutritional inequalities among children.

Keywords: concentration index, decomposition analysis, inequalities, undernutrition, Pakistan

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Authors: Suraj Mehrotra

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The stock market is a volatile, bustling marketplace that is a cornerstone of economics. It defines whether companies are successful or in spiral. A thorough understanding of it is important - many companies have whole divisions dedicated to analysis of both their stock and of rivaling companies. Linking the world of finance and artificial intelligence (AI), especially the stock market, has been a relatively recent development. Predicting how stocks will do considering all external factors and previous data has always been a human task. With the help of AI, however, machine learning models can help us make more complete predictions in financial trends. Taking a look at the stock market specifically, predicting the open, closing, high, and low prices for the next day is very hard to do. Machine learning makes this task a lot easier. A model that builds upon itself that takes in external factors as weights can predict trends far into the future. When used effectively, new doors can be opened up in the business and finance world, and companies can make better and more complete decisions. This paper explores the various techniques used in the prediction of stock prices, from traditional statistical methods to deep learning and neural networks based approaches, among other methods. It provides a detailed analysis of the techniques and also explores the challenges in predictive analysis. For the accuracy of the testing set, taking a look at four different models - linear regression, neural network, decision tree, and naïve Bayes - on the different stocks, Apple, Google, Tesla, Amazon, United Healthcare, Exxon Mobil, J.P. Morgan & Chase, and Johnson & Johnson, the naïve Bayes model and linear regression models worked best. For the testing set, the naïve Bayes model had the highest accuracy along with the linear regression model, followed by the neural network model and then the decision tree model. The training set had similar results except for the fact that the decision tree model was perfect with complete accuracy in its predictions, which makes sense. This means that the decision tree model likely overfitted the training set when used for the testing set.

Keywords: machine learning, testing set, artificial intelligence, stock analysis

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Authors: Zeinu Ahmed Rabba, Derek D Stretch

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Remote sensing contributes valuable information to streamflow estimates. Usually, stream flow is directly measured through ground-based hydrological monitoring station. However, in many developing countries like Ethiopia, ground-based hydrological monitoring networks are either sparse or nonexistent, which limits the manage water resources and hampers early flood-warning systems. In such cases, satellite remote sensing is an alternative means to acquire such information. This paper discusses the application of remotely sensed rainfall data for streamflow modeling in Gilgel Ghibe basin in Ethiopia. Ten years (2001-2010) of two satellite-based precipitation products (SBPP), TRMM and WaterBase, were used. These products were combined with the PyTOPKAPI hydrological model to generate daily stream flows. The results were compared with streamflow observations at Gilgel Ghibe Nr, Assendabo gauging station using four statistical tools (Bias, R², NS and RMSE). The statistical analysis indicates that the bias-adjusted SBPPs agree well with gauged rainfall compared to bias-unadjusted ones. The SBPPs with no bias-adjustment tend to overestimate (high Bias and high RMSE) the extreme precipitation events and the corresponding simulated streamflow outputs, particularly during wet months (June-September) and underestimate the streamflow prediction over few dry months (January and February). This shows that bias-adjustment can be important for improving the performance of the SBPPs in streamflow forecasting. We further conclude that the general streamflow patterns were well captured at daily time scales when using SBPPs after bias adjustment. However, the overall results demonstrate that the simulated streamflow using the gauged rainfall is superior to those obtained from remotely sensed rainfall products including bias-adjusted ones.

Keywords: Ethiopia, PyTOPKAPI model, remote sensing, streamflow, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), waterBase

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Authors: Rami Faraj, Cezary Graczykowski, Błażej Popławski, Grzegorz Mikułowski, Rafał Wiszowaty

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Progress in the field of sensors, electronics and computing results in more and more often applications of adaptive techniques for dynamic response mitigation. When it comes to systems excited with mechanical impacts, the control system has to take into account the significant limitations of actuators responsible for system adaptation. The paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the problem of appropriate design and implementation of adaptation techniques and mechanisms. Two case studies are presented in order to compare completely different adaptation schemes. The first example concerns a double-chamber pneumatic shock absorber with a fast piezo-electric valve and parameters corresponding to the suspension of a small unmanned aerial vehicle, whereas the second considered system is a safety air cushion applied for evacuation of people from heights during a fire. For both systems, it is possible to ensure adaptive performance, but a realization of the system’s adaptation is completely different. The reason for this is technical limitations corresponding to specific types of shock-absorbing devices and their parameters. Impact mitigation using a pneumatic shock absorber corresponds to much higher pressures and small mass flow rates, which can be achieved with minimal change of valve opening. In turn, mass flow rates in safety air cushions relate to gas release areas counted in thousands of sq. cm. Because of these facts, both shock-absorbing systems are controlled based on completely different approaches. Pneumatic shock-absorber takes advantage of real-time control with valve opening recalculated at least every millisecond. In contrast, safety air cushion is controlled using the semi-passive technique, where adaptation is provided using prediction of the entire impact mitigation process. Similarities of both approaches, including applied models, algorithms and equipment, are discussed. The entire study is supported by numerical simulations and experimental tests, which prove the effectiveness of both adaptive impact mitigation techniques.

Keywords: adaptive control, adaptive system, impact mitigation, pneumatic system, shock-absorber

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Authors: Swati Swati, Yuhang Chen, Robert Reuben

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Coronary stents are devices resembling the shape of a tube which are placed in coronary arteries, to keep the arteries open in the treatment of coronary arterial diseases. Coronary stents are routinely deployed to clear atheromatous plaque. The stent essentially applies an internal pressure to the artery because its structure is cylindrically symmetrical and this may introduce some abnormalities in final arterial shape. The goal of the project is to develop segmented circumferential arterial compliance measuring devices which can be deployed (eventually) in vivo. The segmentation of the device will allow the mechanical asymmetry of any stenosis to be assessed. The purpose will be to assess the quality of arterial tissue for applications in tailored stents and in the assessment of aortic aneurism. Arterial distensibility measurement is of utmost importance to diagnose cardiovascular diseases and for prediction of future cardiac events or coronary artery diseases. In order to arrive at some generic outcomes, a preliminary experimental set-up has been devised to establish the measurement principles for the device at macro-scale. The measurement methodology consists of a strain gauge system monitored by LABVIEW software in a real-time fashion. This virtual instrument employs a balloon within a gelatine model contained in a split cylinder with strain gauges fixed on it. The instrument allows automated measurement of the effect of air-pressure on gelatine and measurement of strain with respect to time and pressure during inflation. Compliance simple creep model has been applied to the results for the purpose of extracting some measures of arterial compliance. The results obtained from the experiments have been used to study the effect of air pressure on strain at varying time intervals. The results clearly demonstrate that with decrease in arterial volume and increase in arterial pressure, arterial strain increases thereby decreasing the arterial compliance. The measurement system could lead to development of portable, inexpensive and small equipment and could prove to be an efficient automated compliance measurement device.

Keywords: arterial compliance, atheromatous plaque, mechanical symmetry, strain measurement

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Authors: Anusha P. Wijesundara, Dulap I. Rathnayake, Nihal D. Perera

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Bathymetric information is fundamental importance to coastal and marine planning and management, nautical navigation, and scientific studies of marine environments. Satellite-derived bathymetry data provide detailed information in areas where conventional sounding data is lacking and conventional surveys are inaccessible. The two empirical approaches of log-linear bathymetric inversion model and non-linear bathymetric inversion model are applied for deriving bathymetry from high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery. This study compares these two approaches by means of geographical error analysis for the site Kankesanturai using WorldView-2 satellite imagery. Based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method calibrated the parameters of non-linear inversion model and the multiple-linear regression model was applied to calibrate the log-linear inversion model. In order to calibrate both models, Single Beam Echo Sounding (SBES) data in this study area were used as reference points. Residuals were calculated as the difference between the derived depth values and the validation echo sounder bathymetry data and the geographical distribution of model residuals was mapped. The spatial autocorrelation was calculated by comparing the performance of the bathymetric models and the results showing the geographic errors for both models. A spatial error model was constructed from the initial bathymetry estimates and the estimates of autocorrelation. This spatial error model is used to generate more reliable estimates of bathymetry by quantifying autocorrelation of model error and incorporating this into an improved regression model. Log-linear model (R²=0.846) performs better than the non- linear model (R²=0.692). Finally, the spatial error models improved bathymetric estimates derived from linear and non-linear models up to R²=0.854 and R²=0.704 respectively. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was calculated for all reference points in various depth ranges. The magnitude of the prediction error increases with depth for both the log-linear and the non-linear inversion models. Overall RMSE for log-linear and the non-linear inversion models were ±1.532 m and ±2.089 m, respectively.

Keywords: log-linear model, multi spectral, residuals, spatial error model

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Authors: Frida Carrillo Morales, Maria Maricela Carrasco Yépez, Saúl Rojas Hernández

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Naegleria fowleri is the causative agent of primary amebic meningoencephalitis, this disease is acute and fulminant that affects humans. It has been reported that despite the existence of therapeutic options against this disease, its mortality rate is 97%. Therefore, the need arises to have vaccines that confer protection against this disease and, in addition to developing adjuvants to enhance the immune response. In this regard, in our work group, we obtained a peptide designed from the membrane protein MP2CL5 of Naegleria fowleri called Smp145 that was shown to be immunogenic; however, it would be of great importance to enhance its immunological response, being able to co-administer it with a non-toxic adjuvant. Therefore, the objective of this work was to carry out the bioinformatic design of a peptide of the Naegleria fowleri membrane protein MP2CL5 conjugated with a non-toxic modified adjuvant from the native A1 structure of Cholera Toxin. For which different bioinformatics tools were used to obtain a model with a modification in amino acid 61 of the A1 subunit of the CT (CTA1), to which the Smp145 peptide was added and both molecules were joined with a 13-glycine linker. As for the results obtained, the modification in CTA1 bound to the peptide produces a reduction in the toxicity of the molecule in in silico experiments, likewise, the prediction in the binding of Smp145 to the receptor of B cells suggests that the molecule is directed in specifically to the BCR receptor, decreasing its native enzymatic activity. The stereochemical evaluation showed that the generated model has a high number of adequately predicted residues. In the ERRAT test, the confidence with which it is possible to reject regions that exceed the error values was evaluated, in the generated model, a high score was obtained, which determines that the model has a good structural resolution. Therefore, the design of the conjugated peptide in this work will allow us to proceed with its chemical synthesis and subsequently be able to use it in the mouse meningitis protection model caused by N. fowleri.

Keywords: immunology, vaccines, pathogens, infectious disease

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Authors: Benbiao Song, Yan Gao, Zhuo Liu

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Geostatistical modeling is the key technic for reservoir characterization, the quality of geological models will influence the prediction of reservoir performance greatly, but few studies have been done to quantify the factors impacting geostatistical reservoir modeling accuracy. In this study, 16 fluvial prototype models have been established to represent different geological complexity, 6 cases range from 16 to 361 wells were defined to reproduce all those 16 prototype models by different methodologies including SIS, object-based and MPFS algorithms accompany with different constraint parameters. Modeling accuracy ratio was defined to quantify the influence of each factor, and ten realizations were averaged to represent each accuracy ratio under the same modeling condition and parameters association. Totally 5760 simulations were done to quantify the relative contribution of each factor to the simulation accuracy, and the results can be used as strategy guide for facies modeling in the similar condition. It is founded that data density, geological trend and geological complexity have great impact on modeling accuracy. Modeling accuracy may up to 90% when channel sand width reaches up to 1.5 times of well space under whatever condition by SIS and MPFS methods. When well density is low, the contribution of geological trend may increase the modeling accuracy from 40% to 70%, while the use of proper variogram may have very limited contribution for SIS method. It can be implied that when well data are dense enough to cover simple geobodies, few efforts were needed to construct an acceptable model, when geobodies are complex with insufficient data group, it is better to construct a set of robust geological trend than rely on a reliable variogram function. For object-based method, the modeling accuracy does not increase obviously as SIS method by the increase of data density, but kept rational appearance when data density is low. MPFS methods have the similar trend with SIS method, but the use of proper geological trend accompany with rational variogram may have better modeling accuracy than MPFS method. It implies that the geological modeling strategy for a real reservoir case needs to be optimized by evaluation of dataset, geological complexity, geological constraint information and the modeling objective.

Keywords: fluvial facies, geostatistics, geological trend, modeling strategy, modeling accuracy, variogram

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Authors: Meghdad Payan, Kostas Senetakis, Arman Khoshghalb, Nasser Khalili

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Dynamic properties of soils, especially at the range of very small strains, are of particular interest in geotechnical engineering practice for characterization of the behavior of geo-structures subjected to a variety of stress states. This study reports on the small-strain dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures with particular emphasis on the effect of non-plastic fines content on the small strain shear modulus (Gmax), Young’s Modulus (Emax), material damping (Ds,min) and Poisson’s Ratio (v). Several clean sands with a wide range of grain size characteristics and particle shape are mixed with variable percentages of a silica non-plastic silt as fines content. Prepared specimens of sand-silt mixtures at different initial void ratios are subjected to sequential torsional and flexural resonant column tests with elastic dynamic properties measured along an isotropic stress path up to 800 kPa. It is shown that while at low percentages of fines content, there is a significant difference between the dynamic properties of the various samples due to the different characteristics of the sand portion of the mixtures, this variance diminishes as the fines content increases and the soil behavior becomes mainly silt-dominant, rendering no significant influence of sand properties on the elastic dynamic parameters. Indeed, beyond a specific portion of fines content, around 20% to 30% typically denoted as threshold fines content, silt is controlling the behavior of the mixture. Using the experimental results, new expressions for the prediction of small-strain dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures are developed accounting for the percentage of silt and the characteristics of the sand portion. These expressions are general in nature and are capable of evaluating the elastic dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures with any types of parent sand in the whole range of silt percentage. The inefficiency of skeleton void ratio concept in the estimation of small-strain stiffness of sand-silt mixtures is also illustrated.

Keywords: damping ratio, Poisson’s ratio, resonant column, sand-silt mixture, shear modulus, Young’s modulus

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Kottaridi Klimentia, Demopoulos Vasilis, Sidiropoulos Anastasios, Ihara Diego, Nikolaidis Vasileios, Antonopoulos Dimitrios

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Aflatoxins are highly poisonous and carcinogenic compounds produced by species of the genus Aspergillus spp. that can infect a variety of agricultural foods, including dried figs. Biological and environmental factors, such as population, pathogenicity, and aflatoxinogenic capacity of the strains, topography, soil, and climate parameters of the fig orchards, are believed to have a strong effect on aflatoxin levels. Existing methods for aflatoxin detection and measurement, such as high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), can provide accurate results, but the procedures are usually time-consuming, sample-destructive, and expensive. Predicting aflatoxin levels prior to crop harvest is useful for minimizing the health and financial impact of a contaminated crop. Consequently, there is interest in developing a tool that predicts aflatoxin levels based on topography and soil analysis data of fig orchards. This paper describes the development of a risk assessment tool for the contamination of aflatoxin on dried figs, based on the location and altitude of the fig orchards, the population of the fungus Aspergillus spp. in the soil, and soil parameters such as pH, saturation percentage (SP), electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter, particle size analysis (sand, silt, clay), the concentration of the exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na), extractable P, and trace of elements (B, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu), by employing machine learning methods. In particular, our proposed method integrates three machine learning techniques, i.e., dimensionality reduction on the original dataset (principal component analysis), metric learning (Mahalanobis metric for clustering), and k-nearest neighbors learning algorithm (KNN), into an enhanced model, with mean performance equal to 85% by terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) between observed and predicted values.

Keywords: aflatoxins, Aspergillus spp., dried figs, k-nearest neighbors, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Umamaheswari Shanmugam, Silvia Ronchi

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Software, artificial intelligence, and machine learning can improve healthcare through innovative and advanced technologies that can use the large amount and variety of data generated during healthcare services every day; one of the significant advantages of these new technologies is the ability to get experience and knowledge from real-world use and to improve their performance continuously. Healthcare systems and institutions can significantly benefit because the use of advanced technologies improves the efficiency and efficacy of healthcare. Software-defined as a medical device, is stand-alone software that is intended to be used for patients for one or more of these specific medical intended uses: - diagnosis, prevention, monitoring, prediction, prognosis, treatment or alleviation of a disease, any other health conditions, replacing or modifying any part of a physiological or pathological process–manage the received information from in vitro specimens derived from the human samples (body) and without principal main action of its principal intended use by pharmacological, immunological or metabolic definition. Software qualified as medical devices must comply with the general safety and performance requirements applicable to medical devices. These requirements are necessary to ensure high performance and quality and protect patients' safety. The evolution and the continuous improvement of software used in healthcare must consider the increase in regulatory requirements, which are becoming more complex in each market. The gap between these advanced technologies and the new regulations is the biggest challenge for medical device manufacturers. Regulatory requirements can be considered a market barrier, as they can delay or obstacle the device's approval. Still, they are necessary to ensure performance, quality, and safety. At the same time, they can be a business opportunity if the manufacturer can define the appropriate regulatory strategy in advance. The abstract will provide an overview of the current regulatory framework, the evolution of the international requirements, and the standards applicable to medical device software in the potential market all over the world.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, SaMD, regulatory, clinical evaluation, classification, international requirements, MDR, 510k, PMA, IMDRF, cyber security, health care systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Swathi Ganesan, Nalinda Somasiri, Rebecca Jeyavadhanam, Gayathri Karthick

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The COVID-19 crisis presents a substantial and critical hazard to worldwide health. Since the occurrence of the disease in late January 2020 in the UK, the number of infected people confirmed to acquire the illness has increased tremendously across the country, and the number of individuals affected is undoubtedly considerably high. The purpose of this research is to figure out a predictive machine learning archetypal that could forecast COVID-19 cases within the UK. This study concentrates on the statistical data collected from 31st January 2020 to 31st March 2021 in the United Kingdom. Information on total COVID cases registered, new cases encountered on a daily basis, total death registered, and patients’ death per day due to Coronavirus is collected from World Health Organisation (WHO). Data preprocessing is carried out to identify any missing values, outliers, or anomalies in the dataset. The data is split into 8:2 ratio for training and testing purposes to forecast future new COVID cases. Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, and linear regression algorithms are chosen to study the model performance in the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. From the evaluation metrics such as r-squared value and mean squared error, the statistical performance of the model in predicting the new COVID cases is evaluated. Random Forest outperformed the other two Machine Learning algorithms with a training accuracy of 99.47% and testing accuracy of 98.26% when n=30. The mean square error obtained for Random Forest is 4.05e11, which is lesser compared to the other predictive models used for this study. From the experimental analysis Random Forest algorithm can perform more effectively and efficiently in predicting the new COVID cases, which could help the health sector to take relevant control measures for the spread of the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, supervised learning, unsupervised learning, linear regression, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Siddharth Ahuja, T. M. Muruganandam

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An analytical investigation is performed to study the unsteady response of a one-dimensional, non-linear dynamic shock system to external downstream pressure perturbations in a supersonic flow in a varying area duct. For a given pressure ratio across a wind tunnel, the normal shock's location can be computed as per one-dimensional steady gas dynamics. Similarly, for some other pressure ratio, the location of the normal shock will change accordingly, again computed using one-dimensional gas dynamics. This investigation focuses on the small-time interval between the first steady shock location and the new steady shock location (corresponding to different pressure ratios). In essence, this study aims to shed light on the motion of the shock from one steady location to another steady location. Further, this study aims to create the foundation of the Unsteady Gas Dynamics field enabling further insight in future research work. According to the new pressure ratio, a pressure pulse, generated at the exit of the tunnel which travels and perturbs the shock from its original position, setting it into motion. During such activity, other numerous physical phenomena also happen at the same time. However, three broad phenomena have been focused on, in this study - Traversal of a Wave, Fluid Element Interactions and Wave Interactions. The above mentioned three phenomena create, alter and kill numerous waves for different conditions. The waves which are created by the above-mentioned phenomena eventually interact with the shock and set it into motion. Numerous such interactions with the shock will slowly make it settle into its final position owing to the new pressure ratio across the duct, as estimated by one-dimensional gas dynamics. This analysis will be extremely helpful in the prediction of inlet 'unstart' of the flow in a supersonic engine intake and its prominence with the incoming flow Mach number, incoming flow pressure and the external perturbation pressure is also studied to help design more efficient supersonic intakes for engines like ramjets and scramjets.

Keywords: analytical investigation, compression and expansion waves, fluid element interactions, shock trajectory, supersonic flow, unsteady gas dynamics, varying area duct, wave interactions

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Akiko Ohta, Masahiro Minami, Yusra Qadir, Jennifer York

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The Home Instruction for Parents of Preschool Youngsters (HIPPY) is a home instruction program for mothers of children 3 to 5 years old. Using role-play as a method of teaching, the participating mothers work with their home visitors and learn how to deliver the HIPPY curriculum to their children. Applying HIPPY, Reviving Hope and Home for High-risk Refugee Mothers Program (RHH) was created to provide more personalized peer support and to respond to ongoing settlement challenges for isolated and vulnerable Government Assisted Refugee (GAR) mothers. GARs often have greater needs and vulnerabilities than other refugee groups. While the support is available, they often face various challenges and barriers in starting their new lives in Canada, such as inadequate housing, low first-language literacy levels, low competency in English or French, and social isolation. The pilot project was operated by Mothers Matter Centre (MMC) from January 2019 to March 2021 in partnership with the Immigrant Services Society of BC (ISSofBC). The formative evaluation was conducted by a research team at Simon Fraser University. In order to provide more suitable support for GAR mothers, RHH intended to offer more flexibility in HIPPY delivery, supported by a home visitor, to meet the need of refugee mothers facing various conditions and challenges; to have a pool of financial resources to be used for the RHH families when necessitated during the program period; to have another designated staff member, called a community navigator, assigned to facilitate the support system for the RHH families in their settlement; to have a portable device available for each RHH mother to navigate settlement support resources; and to provide other variations of the HIPPY curriculum as an option for the RHH mothers, including a curriculum targeting pre-HIPPY age children. Reflections on each program component was collected from RHH mothers and staff members of MMC and ISSofBC, including frontline workers and management staff, through individual interviews and focus group discussions. Each of the RHH program components was analyzed and evaluated by applying Moore’s four domains framework to identify key information and generate new knowledge (data). To capture RHH mothers’ program experience more in depth based on their own reflections, the photovoice method was used. Some photos taken by the mothers will be shared to illustrate their RHH experience as part of their life stories. Over the period of the program, this evaluation observed how RHH mothers became more confident in various domains, such as communicating with others, taking public transportations alone, and teaching their own child(ren). One of the major factors behind the success was their home visitors’ flexibility and creativity to create a more meaningful and tailored approach for each mother, depending on her background and personal situation. The role of the community navigator was tested out and improved during the program period. The community navigators took the key role to assess the needs of the RHH families and connect them with community resources. Both the home visitors and community navigators were immigrant mothers themselves and owing to their dedicated care for the RHH mothers; they were able to gain trust and work closely and efficiently with RHH mothers.

Keywords: refugee mothers, settlement support, program evaluation, Canada

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Suchithra V., Shreedhanya, Kavya Menon, Vidya Niranjan

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Skin metagenomics has a wide range of applications with direct relevance to the health of the organism. It gives us insight to the diverse community of microorganisms (the microbiome) harbored on the skin. In the recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that the interaction between skin microbiome and the human body plays a prominent role in immune system development, cancer development, disease pathology, and many other biological implications. Next Generation Sequencing has led to faster and better understanding of environmental organisms and their mutual interactions. This project is studying the human skin microbiome of different individuals having varied skin conditions. Bacterial 16S rRNA data of skin microbiome is downloaded from SRA toolkit provided by NCBI to perform metagenomics analysis. Twelve samples are selected with two controls, and 3 different categories, i.e., sex (male/female), skin type (moist/intermittently moist/sebaceous) and occlusion (occluded/intermittently occluded/exposed). Quality of the data is increased using Cutadapt, and its analysis is done using FastQC. USearch, a tool used to analyze an NGS data, provides a suitable platform to obtain taxonomy classification and abundance of bacteria from the metagenome data. The statistical tool used for analyzing the USearch result is METAGENassist. The results revealed that the top three abundant organisms found were: Prevotella, Corynebacterium, and Anaerococcus. Prevotella is known to be an infectious bacterium found on wound, tooth cavity, etc. Corynebacterium and Anaerococcus are opportunist bacteria responsible for skin odor. This result infers that Prevotella thrives easily in sebaceous skin conditions. Therefore it is better to undergo intermittently occluded treatment such as applying ointments, creams, etc. to treat wound for sebaceous skin type. Exposing the wound should be avoided as it leads to an increase in Prevotella abundance. Moist skin type individuals can opt for occluded or intermittently occluded treatment as they have shown to decrease the abundance of bacteria during treatment.

Keywords: bacterial 16S rRNA , next generation sequencing, skin metagenomics, skin microbiome, taxonomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Momoka Sunohara, Ashley J. Lemieux, Esther Yakobov, Andrew G. Ryder, Tomas Jurcik

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Immigration brings changes in many aspects of an individual's life, from social support dynamics, to housing and language, as well as difficulties with regards to discrimination, trauma, and loss. Past research has mostly emphasized individual differences in mental health and has neglected the impact of social-ecological context, such as acculturation and ethnic density. Purpose: The present study aimed to assess the relationship between variables associated with social integration such as perceived ethnic density and ways of coping, as well as psychological adjustment in a rapidly growing non-visible minority group of immigrants in Canada. Data: A small subset of an archival data from our previously published study was reanalyzed with additional variables. Data included information from 269 Russian-Speaking immigrants in Montreal, Canada. Method: Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) investigated the relationship between two sets of variables. SAS PROC CANCORR was used to conduct CCA on a set of social integration variables, including ethnic density, discrimination, social support, family functioning, and acculturation, and a set of psychological well-being variables, including distress, depression, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. In addition, canonical redundancy analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of variances of original variables explained by their own canonical variates. Results: Significance tests using Rao’s F statistics indicated that the first two canonical correlations (i.e., r1 = 0.64, r2 = 0.40) were statistically significant (p-value < 0.0001). Additionally, canonical redundancy analysis showed that the first two well-being canonical variates explained separately 62.9% and 12.8% variances of the standardized well-being variables, whereas the first two social integration canonical variates explained separately 14.7% and 16.7% variances of the standardized social integration variables. These results support the selection of the first two canonical correlations. Then, we interpreted the derived canonical variates based on their canonical structure (i.e., correlations with original variables). Two observations can be concluded. First, individuals who have adequate social support, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and reframing are more likely to have better self-esteem, greater life satisfaction and experience less feelings of depression or distress. Second, individuals who feel discriminated yet rate higher on a mainstream acculturation scale, and who, as a family, cope by acquiring social support, mobilizing others and using spirituality, while using less passive strategies are more likely to have better life satisfaction but also higher degree of depression. Implications: This model may serve to explain the complex interactions that exist between social and emotional adjustment and aid in facilitating the integration of individuals immigrating into new communities. The same group may experience greater depression but paradoxically improved life satisfaction associated with their coping process. Such findings need to be placed in the context of Russian cultural values. For instance, some Russian-speakers may value the expression of negative emotions with significant others during the integration process; this in turn may make negative emotions more salient, but also facilitate a greater sense of family and community connection, as well as life satisfaction.

Keywords: acculturation, ethnic density, mental health, Russian-speaking

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: T. Almutairi, K. Naudi, N. Nairn, X. Ju, B. Eng, J. Whitters, A. Ayoub

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Purpose: At present Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) imaging does not record dental morphology accurately due to the scattering produced by metallic restorations and the reported magnification. The aim of this pilot study is the development and validation of a new method for the replacement of the distorted dentition of CBCT scans with the dental image captured by the digital intraoral camera. Materials and Method: Six dried skulls with orthodontics brackets on the teeth were used in this study. Three intra-oral markers made of dental stone were constructed which were attached to orthodontics brackets. The skulls were CBCT scanned, and occlusal surface was captured using TRIOS® 3D intraoral scanner. Marker based and surface based registrations were performed to fuse the digital intra-oral scan(IOS) into the CBCT models. This produced a new composite digital model of the skull and dentition. The skulls were scanned again using the commercially accurate Laser Faro® arm to produce the 'gold standard' model for the assessment of the accuracy of the developed method. The accuracy of the method was assessed by measuring the distance between the occlusal surfaces of the new composite model and the 'gold standard' 3D model of the skull and teeth. The procedure was repeated a week apart to measure the reproducibility of the method. Results: The results showed no statistically significant difference between the measurements on the first and second occasions. The absolute mean distance between the new composite model and the laser model ranged between 0.11 mm to 0.20 mm. Conclusion: The dentition of the CBCT can be accurately replaced with the dental image captured by the intra-oral scanner to create a composite model. This method will improve the accuracy of orthognathic surgical prediction planning, with the final goal of the fabrication of a physical occlusal wafer without to guide orthognathic surgery and eliminate the need for dental impression.

Keywords: orthognathic surgery, superimposition, models, cone beam computed tomography

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Zahid Khalil, Saad Ul Haque, Asif Khan

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Decision making about identifying suitable sites for any project by considering different parameters is difficult. Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) can make it easy for those projects. This technology has proved to be an efficient and adequate in acquiring the desired information. In this study, GIS and MCA were employed to identify the suitable sites for small dams in Dadu Tehsil, Sindh. The GIS software is used to create all the spatial parameters for the analysis. The parameters that derived are slope, drainage density, rainfall, land use / land cover, soil groups, Curve Number (CN) and runoff index with a spatial resolution of 30m. The data used for deriving above layers include 30-meter resolution SRTM DEM, Landsat 8 imagery, and rainfall from National Centre of Environment Prediction (NCEP) and soil data from World Harmonized Soil Data (WHSD). Land use/Land cover map is derived from Landsat 8 using supervised classification. Slope, drainage network and watershed are delineated by terrain processing of DEM. The Soil Conservation Services (SCS) method is implemented to estimate the surface runoff from the rainfall. Prior to this, SCS-CN grid is developed by integrating the soil and land use/land cover raster. These layers with some technical and ecological constraints are assigned weights on the basis of suitability criteria. The pairwise comparison method, also known as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is taken into account as MCA for assigning weights on each decision element. All the parameters and group of parameters are integrated using weighted overlay in GIS environment to produce suitable sites for the Dams. The resultant layer is then classified into four classes namely, best suitable, suitable, moderate and less suitable. This study reveals a contribution to decision-making about suitable sites analysis for small dams using geospatial data with minimal amount of ground data. This suitability maps can be helpful for water resource management organizations in determination of feasible rainwater harvesting structures (RWH).

Keywords: Remote sensing, GIS, AHP, RWH

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Olalekan Lawrence Ojo

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Designing microwave terrestrial propagation networks requires a thorough evaluation of the severity of multipath fading, especially at frequencies below 10 GHz. In nations like Nigeria, without a large enough databases to support the existing empirical models, the mistakes in the prediction technique intended for the evaluation may be severe. The need for higher bandwidth for various satellite applications makes the investigation of the effects of radio refractivity, fading due to multipath, and Geoclimatic factors on satellite propagation links more important. One of the key elements to take into account for the best functioning of microwave frequencies is the clear air effects. This work has taken into account the geographical distribution of radio refractivity and fades depth over a number of stations in Nigeria. Data from five locations in Nigeria—Akure, Enugu, Jos, Minna, and Sokoto—based on five-year (2017–2021) measurement methods of atmospheric pressure, relative, and humidity temperature—at two levels (ground surface and 100 m heights)—are studied to deduced their effects on signals propagated through a µwave communication links. The assessments included considerations for µwave communication systems as well as the impacts of the dry and wet components of radio refractivity, the effects of the fade depth at various frequencies, and a 20 km link distance. The results demonstrate that the percentage occurrence of the dry terms dominated the radio refractivity constituent at the surface level, contributing a minimum of about 78% and a maximum of about 92%, while at heights of 100 meters, the percentage occurrence of the dry terms dominated the radio refractivity constituent, contributing a minimum of about 79% and a maximum of about 92%. The spatial distribution reveals that, regardless of height, the country's tropical rainforest (TRF) and freshwater swampy mangrove (FWSM) regions reported the greatest values of radio refractivity. The statistical estimate shows that fading values can differ by as much as 1.5 dB, especially near the TRF and FWSM coastlines, even during clear air conditions. The current findings will be helpful for budgeting Earth-space microwave links, particularly for the rollout of Nigeria's 5G and 6G projected microcellular networks.

Keywords: fade depth, geoclimatic factor, refractivity, refractivity gradient

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Authors: Rachel S. Chang, Samuel P. Massion, Alan Z. Grusky, Heather A. Ridinger

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Introduction Health advocacy is defined as activities that improve access to care, utilize resources, address health disparities, and influence health policy. Advocacy is increasingly being recognized as a critical component of a physician’s role, as understanding social determinants of health and improving patient care are important aspects within the American Medical Association’s Health Systems Science framework. However, despite this growing prominence, educational interventions that address advocacy topics are limited and variable across medical school curricula. Furthermore, few recent studies have evaluated attitudes toward health advocacy among physicians-in-training in the United States. This study examines medical student attitudes towards health advocacy, along with perceived knowledge, ability, and current level of engagement with health advocacy during their clerkships. Methods This study employed a cross-sectional survey design using a single anonymous, self-report questionnaire to all second-year medical students at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine (n=96) in December 2020 during clerkship rotations. The survey had 27 items with 5-point Likert scale (15), multiple choice (11), and free response questions (1). Descriptive statistics and thematic analysis were utilized to analyze responses. The study was approved by the Vanderbilt University Institutional Review Board. Results There was an 88% response rate among second-year clerkship medical students. A majority (83%) agreed that formal training in health advocacy should be a mandatory part of the medical student curriculum Likewise, 83% of respondents felt that acting as a health advocate or patients should be part of their role as a clerkship student. However, a minority (25%) felt adequately prepared. While 72% of respondents felt able to identify a psychosocial need, 18% felt confident navigating the healthcare system and only 9% felt able to connect a patient to a psychosocial resource to fill that gap. 44% of respondents regularly contributed to conversations with their medical teams when discussing patients’ social needs, such as housing insecurity, financial insecurity, or legal needs. On average, respondents reported successfully connecting patients to psychosocial resources 1-2 times per 8-week clerkship block. Barriers to participating in health advocacy included perceived time constraints, lack of awareness of resources, lower emphasis among medical teams, and scarce involvement with social work teams. Conclusions In this single-institutional study, second-year medical students on clerkships recognize the importance of advocating for patients and support advocacy training within their medical school curriculum. However, their perceived lack of ability to navigate the healthcare system and connect patients to psychosocial resources, result in students feeling unprepared to advocate as effectively as they hoped during their clerkship rotations. Our results support the ongoing need to equip medical students with training and resources necessary for them to effectively act as advocates for patients.

Keywords: clerkships, medical students, patient advocacy, social medicine

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Authors: Alireza Monzavi Chaleshtari, Maryam Aliakbari

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Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the prediction of child attachment style based on a positive and safe combination parenting method mediated by maternal attachment styles in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Method: The design of the present study was descriptive of correlation and structural equations and applied in terms of purpose. The population of this study includes all children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder living in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province and their mothers. The sample size of the above study includes 165children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province with their mothers, who were selected by purposive sampling method based on the inclusion criteria. The obtained data were analyzed in two sections of descriptive and inferential statistics. In the descriptive statistics section, statistical indices of mean, standard deviation, frequency distribution table and graph were used. In the inferential section, according to the nature of the hypotheses and objectives of the research, the data were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient tests, Bootstrap test and structural equation model. findings:The results of structural equation modeling showed that the research models fit and showed a positive and safe combination parenting style mediated by the mother attachment style has an indirect effect on the child attachment style. Also, a positive and safe combined parenting style has a direct relationship with child attachment style, and She has a mother attachment style. Conclusion:The results and findings of the present study show that there is a significant relationship between positive and safe combination parenting methods and attachment styles of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder with maternal attachment style mediation. Therefore, it can be expected that parents using a positive and safe combination232 parenting method can effectively lead to secure attachment in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Keywords: child attachment style, positive and safe parenting, maternal attachment style, ADHD

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Abdel Rahman Khider Hassan

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This paper describes a multi-criteria geospatial model for prediction of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for Lake Naivasha catchment (Kenya), based on spatial analysis of integrated datasets of location intrinsic parameters (slope stability factors) and external landslides triggering factors (natural and man-made factors). The intrinsic dataset included: lithology, geometry of slope (slope inclination, aspect, elevation, and curvature) and land use/land cover. The landslides triggering factors included: rainfall as the climatic factor, in addition to the destructive effects reflected by proximity of roads and drainage network to areas that are susceptible to landslides. No published study on landslides has been obtained for this area. Thus, digital datasets of the above spatial parameters were conveniently acquired, stored, manipulated and analyzed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) using a multi-criteria grid overlay technique (in ArcGIS 10.2.2 environment). Deduction of landslide hazard zonation is done by applying weights based on relative contribution of each parameter to the slope instability, and finally, the weighted parameters grids were overlaid together to generate a map of the potential landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for the lake catchment. From the total surface of 3200 km² of the lake catchment, most of the region (78.7 %; 2518.4 km²) is susceptible to moderate landslide hazards, whilst about 13% (416 km²) is occurring under high hazards. Only 1.0% (32 km²) of the catchment is displaying very high landslide hazards, and the remaining area (7.3 %; 233.6 km²) displays low probability of landslide hazards. This result confirms the importance of steep slope angles, lithology, vegetation land cover and slope orientation (aspect) as the major determining factors of slope failures. The information provided by the produced map of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) could lay the basis for decision making as well as mitigation and applications in avoiding potential losses caused by landslides in the Lake Naivasha catchment in the Kenya Highlands.

Keywords: decision making, geospatial, landslide, multi-criteria, Naivasha

Procedia PDF Downloads 184