Search results for: casual relationship model

Authors: Okolie Chukwulozie Paul, Iwenofu Chinwe Onyedika, Sinebe Jude Ebieladoh, M. C. Nwosu

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The research work is based on the statistical analysis of the processing data. The essence is to analyze the data statistically and to generate a design model for the production mix of soap manufacturing products in Bejoy manufacturing company Nkpologwu, Aguata Local Government Area, Anambra state, Nigeria. The statistical analysis shows the statistical analysis and the correlation of the data. T test, Partial correlation and bi-variate correlation were used to understand what the data portrays. The design model developed was used to model the data production yield and the correlation of the variables show that the R2 is 98.7%. However, the results confirm that the data is fit for further analysis and modeling. This was proved by the correlation and the R-squared.

Keywords: General Linear Model, correlation, variables, pearson, significance, T-test, soap, production mix and statistic

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Authors: Chandra Prayaga, Aaron Wade, Lakshmi Prayaga, Gopi Shankar Mallu

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This paper presents the use of machine learning algorithms to predict the success of students in an introductory physics course. Data having 140 rows pertaining to the performance of two batches of students was used. The lack of sufficient data to train robust machine learning models was compensated for by generating synthetic data similar to the real data. CTGAN and CTGAN with Gaussian Copula (Gaussian) were used to generate synthetic data, with the real data as input. To check the similarity between the real data and each synthetic dataset, pair plots were made. The synthetic data was used to train machine learning models using the PyCaret package. For the CTGAN data, the Ada Boost Classifier (ADA) was found to be the ML model with the best fit, whereas the CTGAN with Gaussian Copula yielded Logistic Regression (LR) as the best model. Both models were then tested for accuracy with the real data. ROC-AUC analysis was performed for all the ten classes of the target variable (Grades A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D, F). The ADA model with CTGAN data showed a mean AUC score of 0.4377, but the LR model with the Gaussian data showed a mean AUC score of 0.6149. ROC-AUC plots were obtained for each Grade value separately. The LR model with Gaussian data showed consistently better AUC scores compared to the ADA model with CTGAN data, except in two cases of the Grade value, C- and A-.

Keywords: machine learning, student success, physics course, grades, synthetic data, CTGAN, gaussian copula CTGAN

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Authors: Jatuphum Ketchatturat

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Value-added assessment has been used for developing the model of monitoring and evaluation of student's learning achievement. The steps of model development consist of 1) study and analyisis of the school and the district report system of student achievement and progress, 2) collecting the data of student achievement to develop the value added indicator, 3) developing the system of value-added assessment by participatory action research approach, 4) putting the system of value-added assessment into the educational district of secondary school, 5) determining the quality of the developed system of value-added assessment. The components of the developed model consist of 1) the database of value-added assessment of student's learning achievement, 2) the process of monitoring and evaluation the student's learning achievement, and 3) the reporting system of value-added assessment of student's learning achievement.

Keywords: learning achievement, monitoring and evaluation, value-added assessment

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Authors: Shilpi Tripathi

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After independence, Bangladesh had to learn to survive on its own without any economic crutches (aid). Foreign direct investment (FDI) became a crucial economic tool for the country to become economically independent. The government started removing restrictions to encourage foreign investment, economic growth, international trade, and the environment. FDI is considered as a way to bridge the saving-investment gap, reduce poverty, balance trade, create jobs for its vast labour force, increase foreign exchange earnings and acquire new modern technology and management skills in the country. At the same time, spillovers of foreign investments in Bangladesh, such as low wages (compared to laborers of developed countries), poor working conditions and unbridled exploitation of the domestic resources, environmental externalities, etc., cannot be ignored. The most important adverse implications of FDI inflows noticed are the environmental problems, which are further impacting the health and society of the country. This paper empirically studies the relationship between FDI, economic growth, international trade (exports and Imports), and the environment since 1996. The first part of the paper focuses on the background and trends of FDI, GDP, trade, and environment (CO₂). The second part focuses on the literature review on the relationship between all the variables. The last part of the paper examines the results of empirical analysis like co-integration and Granger causality. The findings of the paper reveal that a uni-directional relationship exists between FDI, CO₂, and international trade (exports and imports). The direction of the causality reveals that FDI inflow is one of the major contributors to high-volume international trade. At the same time, FDI and international trade both are contributing to carbon emissions in Bangladesh. The paper concludes with the policy recommendations that will ensure environmentally friendly trade, investment, and growth in Bangladesh for the future.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, GDP, international trade, CO₂, Granger causality, environment

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Authors: Turuganti Venkateswarlu, Jagadeesh Anmala

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Excessive runoffs from various non-point source land uses, and other point sources are rapidly contaminating the water quality of streams in the Upper Green River watershed, Kentucky, USA. It is essential to maintain the stream water quality as the river basin is one of the major freshwater sources in this province. It is also important to understand the water quality parameters (WQPs) quantitatively and qualitatively along with their important features as stream water is sensitive to climatic events and land-use practices. In this paper, a model was developed for predicting one of the significant WQPs, Fecal Coliform (FC) from precipitation, temperature, urban land use factor (ULUF), agricultural land use factor (ALUF), and forest land-use factor (FLUF) using Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model, a novel ensemble learning algorithm, can even find out advanced feature importance characteristics from the given model inputs for different combinations. This model’s outcomes showed a good correlation between FC and climate events and land use factors (R2 = 0.94) and precipitation and temperature are the primary influencing factors for FC.

Keywords: water quality, land use factors, random forest, fecal coliform

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Authors: Xiongxiong You, Zhanwen Niu

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Choosing an appropriate surrogate model plays an important role in surrogates-assisted evolutionary algorithms (SAEAs) since there are many types and different kernel functions in the surrogate model. In this paper, an adaptive selection of the best suitable surrogate model method is proposed to solve different kinds of expensive optimization problems. Firstly, according to the prediction residual error sum of square (PRESS) and different model selection strategies, the excellent individual surrogate models are integrated into multiple ensemble models in each generation. Then, based on the minimum root of mean square error (RMSE), the best suitable surrogate model is selected dynamically. Secondly, two methods with dynamic number of models and selection strategies are designed, which are used to show the influence of the number of individual models and selection strategy. Finally, some compared studies are made to deal with several commonly used benchmark problems, as well as a rotor system optimization problem. The results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: adaptive selection, expensive optimization, rotor system, surrogates assisted evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Abdullah Ay, Şehnaz Şener

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It is of great importance to reveal their current status and conduct research in this direction for the sustainable use and protection of lakes, which are among the most important water resources for meeting water needs and ensuring ecological balance. In this context, the purpose of this study is to determine the hydrogeochemical properties, as well as water quality and usability characteristics of Işıklı Lake within the Lakes Region of Turkey. Işıklı Lake is a tectonic lake located in the Aegean Region of Turkey. The lake has a surface area of approximately 36 km². Temperature (T), electrical conductivity (EC) and hydrogen ion concentration (pH), dissolved oxygen (%, mg/l), Oxidation Reduction Potential (ORP; mV), and amount of dissolved solids in water (TDS; mg/l) of water samples taken from the lake values were determined by in situ analysis. Major ion and heavy metal analyses were carried out under laboratory conditions. Additionally, the relationship between major ion concentrations and TDS values of Işıklı Lake water samples was determined by correlation analysis. According to the results obtained, it is seen that especially Mg, Ca and HCO₃ ions are dominant in the lake water, and it has been determined that the lake water is in the Ca-Mg-HCO₃ water facies. According to statistical analysis, a strong and positive relationship was found between the TDS value and bicarbonate and calcium (R² = 0.61 and 0.7, respectively). However, no significant relationship was detected between the TDS value and other chemical elements. Although the waters are generally in water quality class I, they are in class IV in terms of sulfur and aluminum. It is included in the water quality class. This situation is due to the rock-water interaction in the region. When the analysis results of the lake water were compared with the drinking water limit values specified by TSE-266 (2005) and WHO (2017), it was determined that it was not suitable for drinking water use in terms of Pb, Se, As, and Cr. When the waters were evaluated in terms of pollution, it was determined that 50% of the samples carried pollution loads in terms of Al, As, Fe, NO3, and Cu.

Keywords: Işıklı Lake, water chemistry, water quality, pollution, arsenic, Denizli

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Authors: Laurie Dempsey

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Relationships are considered to be beneficial for emotional wellbeing, happiness and physical health. However, they are also complicated: individuals engage in a multitude of complex and volatile relationships during their lifetime, where the change to or ending of these dynamics can be deeply disruptive. As the internet is further integrated into everyday life and relationships are increasingly mediated, Media Studies’ and Sociology’s research interests intersect and converge. This study longitudinally explores how relationship change over time corresponds with the developing UK technological landscape between 2005-2018. Since the early 2000s, the use of computer-mediated communication (CMC) in the UK has dramatically reshaped interaction. Its use has compelled individuals to renegotiate how they consider their relationships: some argue it has allowed for vast networks to be accumulated and strengthened; others contend that it has eradicated the core values and norms associated with communication, damaging relationships. This research collaborated with UK media regulator Ofcom, utilising the longitudinal dataset from their Adult Media Lives study to explore how relationships and CMC use developed over time. This is a unique qualitative dataset covering 2005-2018, where the same 18 participants partook in annual in-home filmed depth interviews. The interviews’ raw video footage was examined year-on-year to consider how the same people changed their reported behaviour and outlooks towards their relationships, and how this coincided with CMC featuring more prominently in their everyday lives. Each interview was transcribed, thematically analysed and coded using NVivo 11 software. This study allowed for a comprehensive exploration into these individuals’ changing relationships over time, as participants grew older, experienced marriages or divorces, conceived and raised children, or lost loved ones. It found that as technology developed between 2005-2018, everyday CMC use was increasingly normalised and incorporated into relationship maintenance. It played a crucial role in altering relationship dynamics, even factoring in the breakdown of several ties. Three key relationships were identified as being shaped by CMC use: parent-child; extended family; and friendships. Over the years there were substantial instances of relationship conflict: for parents renegotiating their dynamic with their child as they tried to both restrict and encourage their child’s technology use; for estranged family members ‘forced’ together in the online sphere; and for friendships compelled to publicly display their relationship on social media, for fear of social exclusion. However, it was also evident that CMC acted as a crucial lifeline for these participants, providing opportunities to strengthen and maintain their bonds via previously unachievable means, both over time and distance. A longitudinal study of this length and nature utilising the same participants does not currently exist, thus provides crucial insight into how and why relationship dynamics alter over time. This unique and topical piece of research draws together Sociology and Media Studies, illustrating how the UK’s changing technological landscape can reshape one of the most basic human compulsions. This collaboration with Ofcom allows for insight that can be utilised in both academia and policymaking alike, making this research relevant and impactful across a range of academic fields and industries.

Keywords: computer mediated communication, longitudinal research, personal relationships, qualitative data

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Authors: E. Benga, T. Tengen, A. Alugongo

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Periodic and continuous inventory models are the two classical management tools used to handle inventories. These models have advantages and disadvantages. The implementation of both continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in most manufacturing plants comes with higher cost. Such high inventory costs are due to the fact that most manufacturing plants are not flexible enough. Since demand and lead-time are two important variables of every inventory models, their effect on the flexibility of the manufacturing plant matter most. Unfortunately, these effects are not clearly understood by managers. The reason is that the decision parameters of the continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models are not designed to effectively deal with the issues of uncertainties such as poor manufacturing performances, delivery performance supplies performances. There is, therefore, a need to come up with a predictive and hybrid inventory model that can combine in some sense the feature of the aforementioned inventory models. A linear combination technique is used to hybridize both continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models. The behavior of such hybrid inventory model is described by a differential equation and then optimized. From the results obtained after simulation, the continuous (r, Q) inventory model is more effective than the periodic (R, S) inventory models in the short run, but this difference changes as time goes by. Because the hybrid inventory model is more cost effective than the continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in long run, it should be implemented for strategic decisions.

Keywords: periodic inventory, continuous inventory, hybrid inventory, optimization, manufacturing plant

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Authors: Duplan Yves Jamont Junior

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The Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model widely used in labor economics is tailored to fishery. By this way, a fishing function is defined to depict the fishing technology, and Bellman equations are established to describe the behaviors of fishermen and conservationists. On this basis, a negotiation takes place as a Nash-bargaining over the upper limit of the fishing pressure between both political representative groups of fishermen and conservationists. The existence and uniqueness conditions of the Nash-bargained fishing pressure are established. Given the biomass evolution equation, the dynamics of the model variables (fishing pressure, biomass, fish need) is studied.

Keywords: conservation, fishery, fishing, Nash bargaining

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Authors: Kingsley Oturu, Winifred Ijomah, Wale Coker, Chibueze Achi

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With the impact of BREXIT and the need for cross-border collaboration, this international research investigated the use of a conceptual model for remanufacturing medical equipment (with a focus on anesthetic machines and baby incubators). Early findings of the research suggest that contextual factors need to be taken into consideration, as well as an emphasis on cleaning (e.g., sterilization) during the process of remanufacturing medical equipment. For example, copper tubings may be more important in the remanufacturing of anesthetic equipment in tropical climates than in cold climates.

Keywords: medical equipment remanufacture, sustainability, circular business models, remanufacture process model

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Authors: Farokh Alipour, Ali Falavand, Neda Beit Saeid

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The calculation of the effect of accidental releases of flammable materials such as LNG requires the use of a suitable consequence model. This study is due to providing a planning advice for developments in the vicinity of LNG sites and other sites handling flammable materials. In this paper, an applicable algorithm that is able to model pool fires on water is presented and applied to estimate pool fire damage zone. This procedure can be used to model pool fires on land and could be helpful in consequence modeling and domino effect zone measurements of flammable materials which is needed in site selection and plant layout.

Keywords: LNG, pool fire, spill, radiation

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Authors: Liang Wang, Wei Zhang

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There have been some existing researches on design-based engineering learning (DBEL) and project-based or problem-based engineering learning (PBEL). Those findings have greatly promoted the reform of engineering education in China. However, the engineering with a big E means that more and more engineering activities are designed and operated by communities of practice (CoPs), namely community-based engineering learning. However, whether community-based engineering learning can promote students' innovation has not been verified in published articles. This study fills this gap by investigating the relationship between community-based learning approach and students’ creativity, using engineering identity as an intermediary variable. The goal of this study is to discover the core features of community-based engineering learning, and make the features more beneficial for students’ creativity. The study created and adapted open survey items from previously published studies and a scale on learning community, students’ creativity and engineering identity. Firstly, qualitative content analysis methods by MAXQDA were used to analyze 32 open-ended questionnaires. Then the authors collected data (n=322) from undergraduate students in engineering competition teams and engineering laboratories in Zhejiang University, and structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to understand the relationship between different factors. The study finds: (a) community-based engineering learning has four main elements like real-task context, self-inquiry learning, deeply-consulted cooperation and circularly-iterated design, (b) community-based engineering learning can significantly enhance the engineering undergraduate students’ creativity, and (c) engineering identity partially moderated the relationship between community-based engineering learning and undergraduate students' creativity. The findings further illustrate the value of community-based engineering learning for undergraduate students. In the future research, the authors should further clarify the core mechanism of community-based engineering learning, and pay attention to the cultivation of undergraduate students’ engineer identity in learning community.

Keywords: community-based engineering learning, students' creativity, engineering identity, moderate effect

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Authors: Marion Billard

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This paper will focus on the question of the real relationship between young people and fake news. Fake news is one of today’s main issues in the world of information and communication. Social media and its democratization helped to spread false information. According to traditional beliefs, young people are more inclined to believe what they read through social media. But, the individuals concerned, think that they are more inclined to make a distinction between real and fake news. This phenomenon is due to their use of the internet and social media from an early age. During the 2016 and 2017 French and American presidential campaigns, the term fake news was in the mouth of the entire world and became a real issue in the field of information. While young people were informing themselves with newspapers or television until the beginning of the ’90s, Gen Z (meaning people born between 1997 and 2010), has always been immersed in this world of fast communication. They know how to use social media from a young age and the internet has no secret for them. Today, despite the sporadic use of traditional media, young people tend to turn to their smartphones and social networks such as Instagram or Twitter to stay abreast of the latest news. The growth of social media information led to an “ambient journalism”, giving access to an endless quantity of information. Waking up in the morning, young people will see little posts with short texts supplying the essential of the news, without, for the most, many details. As a result, impressionable people are not able to do a distinction between real media, and “junk news” or Fake News. This massive use of social media is probably explained by the inability of the youngsters to find connections between the communication of the traditional media and what they are living. The question arises if this over-confidence of the young people in their ability to distinguish between accurate and fake news would not make it more difficult for them to examine critically the information. Their relationship with media and fake news is more complex than popular opinion. Today’s young people are not the master in the quest for information, nor inherently the most impressionable public on social media.

Keywords: fake news, youngsters, social media, information, generation

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Authors: Fredrick Etyang

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This paper presents a Rapid Industrialization Model (RIM) designed to support existing industrialization policies, strategies and industrial development plans at National, Regional and Constituent level in Africa. The model will reinforce efforts to attainment of inclusive and sustainable industrialization of Africa by state and non-state actors. The overall objective of this model is to serve as a framework for rapid industrialization in developing economies and the specific objectives range from supporting rapid industrialization development to promoting a structural change in the economy, a balanced regional industrial growth, achievement of local, regional and international competitiveness in areas of clear comparative advantage in industrial exports and ultimately, the RIM will serve as a step-by-step guideline for the industrialization of African Economies. This model is a product of a scientific research process underpinned by desk research through the review of African countries development plans, strategies, datasets, industrialization efforts and consultation with key informants. The rigorous research process unearthed multi-directional and renewed efforts towards industrialization of Africa premised on collective commitment of individual states, regional economic communities and the African union commission among other strategic stakeholders. It was further, established that the inputs into industrialization of Africa outshine the levels of industrial development on the continent. The RIM comes in handy to serve as step-by-step framework for African countries to follow in their industrial development efforts of transforming inputs into tangible outputs and outcomes in the short, intermediate and long-run. This model postulates three stages of industrialization and three phases toward rapid industrialization of African economies, the model is simple to understand, easily implementable and contextualizable with high return on investment for each unit invested into industrialization supported by the model. Therefore, effective implementation of the model will result into inclusive and sustainable rapid industrialization of Africa.

Keywords: economic development, industrialization, economic efficiency, exports and imports

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Authors: Samindi Samarakoon, Ørjan Sletbakk Vie, Remi Kleiven Fjelldal

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White concrete facade elements are widely used in construction industry. It is challenging to achieve the desired workability in casting of white concrete elements. Particle Matrix model was used for proportioning the self-compacting white concrete (SCWC) to control segregation and bleeding and to improve workability. The paper presents how to reach the target slump flow while controlling bleeding and segregation in SCWC. The amount of aggregates, binders and mixing water, as well as type and dosage of superplasticizer (SP) to be used are the major factors influencing the properties of SCWC. Slump flow and compressive strength tests were carried out to examine the performance of SCWC, and the results indicate that the particle matrix model could produce successfully SCWC controlling segregation and bleeding.

Keywords: white concrete, particle matrix model, mix design, construction industry

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Authors: M. Khalid, W. Rashmi, L. L. Kwan

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This work provides an overview on the experimental and numerical simulations of various nanofluids and their flow and heat transfer behavior. It was further extended to study the effect of nanoparticle concentration, fluid flow rates and thermo-physical properties on the heat transfer enhancement of Al2O3/water nanofluid in a turbulent flow circular conduit using ANSYS FLUENT™ 14.0. Single-phase approximation (homogeneous model) and two-phase (mixture and Eulerian) models were used to simulate the nanofluid flow behavior in the 3-D horizontal pipe. The numerical results were further validated with experimental correlations reported in the literature. It was found that heat transfer of nanofluids increases with increasing particle volume concentration and Reynolds number, respectively. Results showed good agreement (~9% deviation) with the experimental correlations, especially for a single-phase model with constant properties. Among two-phase models, mixture model (~14% deviation) showed better prediction compared to Eulerian-dispersed model (~18% deviation) when temperature independent properties were used. Non-drag forces were also employed in the Eulerian two-phase model. However, the two-phase mixture model with temperature dependent nanofluid properties gave slightly closer agreement (~12% deviation).

Keywords: nanofluid, CFD, heat transfer, forced convection, circular conduit

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Authors: Ye Jiang

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To examine how the relationships among multiple institutional logics vary over time and the factors that may impact this process, we conducted a 15-year in-depth longitudinal case study of a Higher Education Institution to examine its exploration in college student management. By employing constructive grounded theory, we developed a four-stage process model comprising separation, formalization, selective bridging, and embeddedness that showed how two contradictory logics become complementary, and finally become a new hybridized logic. We argue that selective bridging is an important step in changing inter-logic relations. We also found that ambidextrous leadership and situational sensemaking are two key factors that drive this process. Our contribution to the literature is threefold. First, we enhance the literature on the changing relationships among multiple institutional logics and our findings advance the understanding of relationships between multiple logics through a dynamic view. While most studies have tended to assume that the relationship among logics is static and persistently in a contentious state, we contend that the relationships among multiple institutional logics can change over time. Competitive logics can become complementary, and a new hybridized logic can emerge therefrom. The four-stage logic hybridization process model offers insights on the logic hybridization process, which is underexplored in the literature. Second, our research reveals that selective bridging is important in making conflicting logics compatible, and thus constitutes a key step in creating new hybridized logic dynamics. Our findings suggest that the relations between multiple logics are manageable and can thus be manipulated for organizational innovation. Finally, the factors influencing the variations in inter-logic relations enrich the understanding of the antecedents of these dynamics.

Keywords: institutional theory, institutional logics, ambidextrous leadership, situational sensemaking

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Authors: George C. Yao, Chao-Yu Tu, Wei-Chung Chen, Fung-Wen Kuo, Yu-Shan Chang

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Building structures are subjected to both horizontal and vertical ground motions during earthquakes, but only the horizontal ground motion has been extensively studied and considered in design. Most of the prevailing seismic codes assume the vertical component to be 1/2 to 2/3 of the horizontal one. In order to understand the building responses from vertical ground motions, many earthquakes records are studied in this paper. System identification methods (ARX Model) are used to analyze the strong motions and to find out the characteristics of the vertical amplification factors and the natural frequencies of buildings. Analysis results show that the vertical amplification factors for high-rise buildings and low-rise building are 1.78 and 2.52 respectively, and the average vertical amplification factor of all buildings is about 2. The relationship between the vertical natural frequency and building height was regressed to a suggested formula in this study. The result points out an important message; the taller the building is, the greater chance of resonance of vertical vibration on the building will be.

Keywords: vertical ground motion, vertical amplification factor, natural frequency, component

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Authors: Ramin Mehdiabadi

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Background: Breast cancer remains the most prevalent cancer diagnosis and the leading cause of cancer death among women globally, representing 11.7% of new cases and 6.9% of deaths. While the incidence and mortality of major cancers are declining in developed regions like the United States and Western Europe, underdeveloped and developing countries exhibit an increasing trend, attributed to lifestyle factors such as smoking, physical inactivity, and high-calorie diets. Objective: This study explores the intricate relationship between the mammalian transcription factor forkhead box (FoxM1) and the microRNA miR-216b-5p in various subtypes of breast cancer, aiming to deepen the understanding of their roles in tumorigenesis, metastasis, and drug resistance. Methods: Breast cancer subtypes were categorized based on key biomarkers: estrogen receptors, progesterone receptors, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. These include luminal A, luminal B, HER2 enriched, triple-negative, and normal-like subtypes. We focused on analyzing the expression levels of FoxM1 and miR-216b-5p, given the known role of FoxM1 in cell proliferation and its implications in cancer pathologies such as lung, gastric, and breast cancers. Concurrently, miR-216b-5p's function as a tumor suppressor was evaluated to ascertain its regulatory effects on FoxM1. Results: Preliminary data indicate a nuanced interplay between FoxM1 and miR-216b-5p, suggesting a potential inverse relationship that varies across breast cancer subtypes. This relationship underscores the dual role of these biomarkers in modulating cancer progression and response to treatments. Conclusion: The findings advocate for the potential of miR-216b-5p to serve as a prognostic biomarker and a therapeutic target, particularly in subtypes where FoxM1 is prominently expressed. Understanding these molecular interactions provides crucial insights into the personalized treatment strategies and could lead to more effective therapeutic interventions in breast cancer management. Implications: The study highlights the importance of molecular profiling in breast cancer treatment and emphasizes the need for targeted therapeutic approaches in managing diverse cancer subtypes, particularly in varying global contexts where lifestyle factors significantly impact cancer dynamics.

Keywords: breast cancer, gene expression, FoxM1, microRNA

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Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

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Authors: Tshaudi Motsima

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Class attendance is key at all levels of education. At tertiary level many students develop a tendency of not attending all classes without being aware of the repercussions of not attending all classes. It is important for all students to attend all classes as they can receive first-hand information and they can benefit more. The student who attends classes is likely to perform better academically than the student who does not. The aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between class attendance and academic performance of industrial engineering students. The data for this study were collected through the attendance register of students and the other data were accessed from the Integrated Tertiary Software and the Higher Education Data Analyzer Portal. Data analysis was conducted on a sample of 93 students. The results revealed that students with medium predicate scores (OR = 3.8; p = 0.027) and students with low predicate scores (OR = 21.4, p < 0.001) were significantly likely to attend less than 80% of the classes as compared to students with high predicate scores. Students with examination performance of less than 50% were likely to attend less than 80% of classes than students with examination performance of 50% and above, but the differences were not statistically significant (OR = 1.3; p = 0.750).

Keywords: class attendance, examination performance, final outcome, logistic regression

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Miramar Damanhouri

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This study examines the relationship between language use in computer-mediated communication and the social identity of the user. The data were collected by surveying 298 Saudi bilingual speakers who are familiar with Arabizi, a blend of Latin characters and Arabic numerals to transliterate Arabic sounds, and then analyzed quantitatively by running tests for statistical confidence in order to determine differences in perceptions between young adults (ages 15-25 years) and middle-aged adults (ages 26-50 years). According to the findings of this study, English is the dominant language among most of the young adults surveyed, and when they do use Arabic, they use Arabizi because of its flexibility, compatibility with modern technology, and its acceptance among people of their age and sociocultural backgrounds. On the other hand, most middle-aged adults surveyed here tend to use Arabic, as they believe that they should show their loyalty to their origin. The results of the study demonstrate a mutual relationship between language use in computer-mediated communication and the user’s social identity, as language is used both to reflect and construct that identity.

Keywords: Arabizi, computer mediated communication, digital communication, language use

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Nitin Ghule, S. G. Taji

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A mathematical model of hot-wall condensers used in refrigerators is presented. The model predicts the heat transfer characteristics of condenser and the effects of various design and operating parameters on condenser tube length and capacity. A finite element approach was used to model the condenser. The condenser tube is divided into elemental units, with each element consisting of adhesive tape, refrigerant tube and outer metal sheet. The heat transfer characteristics of each section are then analyzed by considering the heat transfer through the tube wall, tape and the outer sheet. Variations in inner heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop are considered depending on temperature, fluid phase, type of flow and orientation of tube. Variation in outer heat transfer coefficient is also taken into account. Various materials were analysed for the tube, tape and outer sheet.

Keywords: condenser, domestic refrigerator, heat transfer, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 235

Authors: Yudhajit Datta

Abstract:

Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that Will Power of an individual affects the success achieved by an individual in life. It is thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks of life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. Behavioral aspects of the human experience such as will are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous uncontrollable parameters involved. This work is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. In the study, an attempt is made to incorporate the behavioral phenomenon of will into a computational model using data pertaining to the success of individuals obtained from an experiment. A neural network is to be trained using data based upon part of the model, and subsequently used to make predictions regarding will corresponding to data points of success. If the prediction is in agreement with the model values, the model is to be retained as a candidate. Ultimately, the best-fit model from among the many different candidates is to be selected, and used for studying the correlation between success and will.

Keywords: will power, will, success, apathy factor, random factor, characteristic function, life story

Procedia PDF Downloads 372