Search results for: polygenic risk score
5082 The Role of Macroeconomic Condition and Volatility in Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swap Index Spread on Structural Models in U.S. Market during Post-Crisis Period
Authors: Xu Wang
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This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 1605081 Iron Deficiency and Iron Deficiency Anaemia/Anaemia as a Diagnostic Indicator for Coeliac Disease: A Systematic Review With Meta-Analysis
Authors: Sahar Shams
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Coeliac disease (CD) is a widely reported disease particularly in countries with predominant Caucasian populations. It presents with many signs and symptoms including iron deficiency (ID) and iron deficiency anaemia/anaemia (IDA/A). The exact association between ID, IDA/A and CD and how accurate these signs are in diagnosing CD is not fully known. This systematic review was conducted to investigate the accuracy of both ID & IDA/A as a diagnostic indicator for CD and whether it warrants point of care testing. A systematic review was performed looking at studies published in MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. QUADAS-2 tool was used to assess risk of bias in each study. ROC curve and forest plots were generated as part of the meta-analysis after data extraction. 16 studies were identified in total, 13 of which were IDA/A studies and 3 ID studies. The prevalence of CD regardless of diagnostic indicator was assumed as 1%. The QUADAS-2 tool indicated most of studies as having high risk of bias. The PPV for CD was higher in those with ID than for those with IDA/A. Meta-analysis showed the overall odds of having CD is 5 times higher in individuals with ID & IDA/A. The ROC curve showed that there is definitely an association between both diagnostic indicators and CD, the association is not a particularly strong one due to great heterogeneity between studies. Whilst an association between IDA/A & ID and coeliac disease was evident, the results were not deemed significant enough to prompt coeliac disease testing in those with IDA/A & ID.Keywords: anemia, iron deficiency anemia, coeliac disease, point of care testing
Procedia PDF Downloads 1225080 Clinical Efficacy and Tolerability of Dropsordry™ in Spanish Perimenopausal Women with Urgency Urinary Incontinence (UUI)
Authors: J. A. Marañón, L. Lozano C. De Los Santos, L. Martínez-Campesino, E. Caballero-Garrido, F. Galán-Estella
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Urinary incontinence (UI) is a significant health problem with considerable social and economic impact. An estimated 30% of women aged 30 to 60 years old have urinary incontinence (UI), while more than 50% of community-dwelling older women have the condition. Stress urinary incontinence and overactive bladder are the common types of incontinence The prevalence of stress and mixed (stress and urge) incontinence is higher than urge incontinence, but the latter is more likely to require treatment. In women, moderate and severe have a prevalence ranging from about 12% to 17% The objectives of this study was to examine the effect of the supplementation of tablets containing Dropsordry in women with urge urinary incontinence (UUI). Dropsordry is a novel active containing phytoestrogens from SOLGEN, the high genistin soy bean extract and pyrogallol plus polyphenols from standarized pumpkin seed extract,. The study was a single-center, not randomiized open prospective, study. 28 women with urinary incontinence ≥45 years were enrolled in this study (45-62 y. old age . Mean 52 y old). Items related to UI symptoms, were previously collected (T0) and these ítems were reviewed at the final of the study – 8 weeks. (T2). The presence of UI was previously diagnosed using the International Continence Society standards (ICS). Relationships between presence of UI and potential related factors as diabetes were also explored. Daily urinary test control was performed during the 8 weeks of treatment. Daily dosage was 1 g/ day (500 mg twice per day) from 0 to 4 week (T1), following a 500 mg/day daily intake from 4 to 8 week (T2). After eight weeks of treatment, the urgency grade score was reduced a 24,7%. The total urge episodes was reduced a 46%. Surprisingly there was no a significant change in daytime urinations (< 5%), however nocturia was reduced a 69,35%. Strenght Urinary Incontinence (SUI) was also tested showing a remarkably 52,17% reduction. Moreover the use of daily pantyliners was reduced a 66,25%. In addition, it was performed a panel test survey with quests when subjects of the study were enrolled (T0) and the same quests was performed after 8 weeks of supplementation (T2). 100% of the enrolled women fullfilled the ICIQ-SF quest (Spanish versión) and they were also questioned about the effects they noticed in response to taking the supplement and the change in quality of life. Interestingly no side effects were reported. There was a 96,2% of subjective satisfaction and a 85,8% objective score in the improvement of quality of life. CONCLUSION: the combination of High genistin isoflavones and pumpkin seed pyrogallol in Dropsordry tablets seems to be a safe and highly effective supplementation for the relieve of the urinary incontinence symptoms and a better quality of life in perimenopause women .Keywords: isoflavones, pumpkin, menopause, incontinence, genistin
Procedia PDF Downloads 3925079 Self-rated Health as a Predictor of Hospitalizations in Patients with Bipolar Disorder and Major Depression: A Prospective Cohort Study of the United Kingdom Biobank
Authors: Haoyu Zhao, Qianshu Ma, Min Xie, Yunqi Huang, Yunjia Liu, Huan Song, Hongsheng Gui, Mingli Li, Qiang Wang
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Rationale: Bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD), as severe chronic illnesses that restrict patients’ psychosocial functioning and reduce their quality of life, are both categorized into mood disorders. Emerging evidence has suggested that the reliability of self-rated health (SRH) was wellvalidated and that the risk of various health outcomes, including mortality and health care costs, could be predicted by SRH. Compared with other lengthy multi-item patient-reported outcomes (PRO) measures, SRH was proven to have a comparable predictive ability to predict mortality and healthcare utilization. However, to our knowledge, no study has been conducted to assess the association between SRH and hospitalization among people with mental disorders. Therefore, our study aims to determine the association between SRH and subsequent all-cause hospitalizations in patients with BD and MDD. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study on people with BD or MDD in the UK from 2006 to 2010 using UK Biobank touchscreen questionnaire data and linked administrative health databases. The association between SRH and 2-year all-cause hospitalizations was assessed using proportional hazard regression after adjustment for sociodemographics, lifestyle behaviors, previous hospitalization use, the Elixhauser comorbidity index, and environmental factors. Results: A total of 29,966 participants were identified, experiencing 10,279 hospitalization events. Among the cohort, the average age was 55.88 (SD 8.01) years, 64.02% were female, and 3,029 (10.11%), 15,972 (53.30%), 8,313 (27.74%), and 2,652 (8.85%) reported excellent, good, fair, and poor SRH, respectively. Among patients reporting poor SRH, 54.19% had a hospitalization event within 2 years compared with 22.65% for those having excellent SRH. In the adjusted analysis, patients with good, fair, and poor SRH had 1.31 (95% CI 1.21-1.42), 1.82 (95% CI 1.68-1.98), and 2.45 (95% CI 2.22, 2.70) higher hazards of hospitalization, respectively, than those with excellent SRH. Conclusion: SRH was independently associated with subsequent all-cause hospitalizations in patients with BD or MDD. This large study facilitates rapid interpretation of SRH values and underscores the need for proactive SRH screening in this population, which might inform resource allocation and enhance high-risk population detection.Keywords: severe mental illnesses, hospitalization, risk prediction, patient-reported outcomes
Procedia PDF Downloads 1555078 Application of Balance Score Card (BSc) in Education: Case of the International University
Authors: Hieu Nguyen
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Performance management is the concern of any organizations in the context of increasing demand and fierce competition between education institution. This paper draws together the performance management concepts and focuses specifically to Balance Scorecard in the context of education. The study employs semi-structured in-depth interview to explore the measurement items for each of the sub-objectives in the four perspectives. Each of the perspectives’ explored measurement items will then be discussed the role and influence of them towards the perspective and how to improve the measurements to have improved performance management. Finally, the measurements will be put together as a suggested balanced scorecard framework in the case of International University.Keywords: performance management, education institution, balance scorecard, measurement items, four perspectives, international univeristy
Procedia PDF Downloads 4045077 Comparing Deep Architectures for Selecting Optimal Machine Translation
Authors: Despoina Mouratidis, Katia Lida Kermanidis
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Machine translation (MT) is a very important task in Natural Language Processing (NLP). MT evaluation is crucial in MT development, as it constitutes the means to assess the success of an MT system, and also helps improve its performance. Several methods have been proposed for the evaluation of (MT) systems. Some of the most popular ones in automatic MT evaluation are score-based, such as the BLEU score, and others are based on lexical similarity or syntactic similarity between the MT outputs and the reference involving higher-level information like part of speech tagging (POS). This paper presents a language-independent machine learning framework for classifying pairwise translations. This framework uses vector representations of two machine-produced translations, one from a statistical machine translation model (SMT) and one from a neural machine translation model (NMT). The vector representations consist of automatically extracted word embeddings and string-like language-independent features. These vector representations used as an input to a multi-layer neural network (NN) that models the similarity between each MT output and the reference, as well as between the two MT outputs. To evaluate the proposed approach, a professional translation and a "ground-truth" annotation are used. The parallel corpora used are English-Greek (EN-GR) and English-Italian (EN-IT), in the educational domain and of informal genres (video lecture subtitles, course forum text, etc.) that are difficult to be reliably translated. They have tested three basic deep learning (DL) architectures to this schema: (i) fully-connected dense, (ii) Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and (iii) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Experiments show that all tested architectures achieved better results when compared against those of some of the well-known basic approaches, such as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Better accuracy results are obtained when LSTM layers are used in our schema. In terms of a balance between the results, better accuracy results are obtained when dense layers are used. The reason for this is that the model correctly classifies more sentences of the minority class (SMT). For a more integrated analysis of the accuracy results, a qualitative linguistic analysis is carried out. In this context, problems have been identified about some figures of speech, as the metaphors, or about certain linguistic phenomena, such as per etymology: paronyms. It is quite interesting to find out why all the classifiers led to worse accuracy results in Italian as compared to Greek, taking into account that the linguistic features employed are language independent.Keywords: machine learning, machine translation evaluation, neural network architecture, pairwise classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 1235076 Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program: Fresh Groudwater Risk Assessement from Tarcrete Material across the Raudhatain and Sabriyah Oil Fields, North Kuwait
Authors: Nada Al-Qallaf, Aisha Al-Barood, Djamel Lekmine, Srinivasan Vedhapuri
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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) under the supervision of Kuwait National Focal Point (KNFP) is planning to remediate 26 million (M) m3 of oil-contaminated soil in oil fields of Kuwait as a direct and indirect fallout of the Gulf War during 1990-1991. This project is funded by the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) under the Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program (KERP). Oil-contamination of the soil occurred due to the destruction of the oil wells and spilled crude oil across the land surface and created ‘oil lakes’ in low lying land. Aerial fall-out from oil spray and combustion products from oil fires combined with the sand and gravel on the ground surface to form a layer of hardened ‘Tarcrete’. The unique fresh groundwater lenses present in the Raudhatain and Sabriya subsurface areas had been impacted by the discharge and/or spills of dissolved petroleum constituents. These fresh groundwater aquifers were used for drinking water purposes until 1990, prior to invasion. This has significantly damages altered the landscape, ecology and habitat of the flora and fauna and in Kuwait Desert. Under KERP, KOC is fully responsible for the planning and execution of the remediation and restoration projects in KOC oil fields. After the initial recommendation of UNCC to construct engineered landfills for containment and disposal of heavily contaminated soils, two landfills were constructed, one in North Kuwait and another in South East Kuwait of capacity 1.7 million m3 and 0.5 million m3 respectively. KOC further developed the Total Remediation Strategy in conjunction with KNFP and has obtained UNCC approval. The TRS comprises of elements such as Risk Based Approach (RBA), Bioremediation of low Contaminated Soil levels, Remediation Treatment Technologies, Sludge Disposal via Beneficial Recycling or Re-use and Engineered landfills for Containment of untreatable materials. Risk Based Assessment as a key component to avoid any unnecessary remedial works, where it can be demonstrated that human health and the environment are sufficiently protected in the absence of active remediation. This study demonstrates on the risks of tarcrete materials spread over areas 20 Km2 on the fresh Ground water lenses/catchment located beneath the Sabriyah and Raudhatain oil fields in North Kuwait. KOC’s primary objective is to provide justification of using RBA, to support a case with the Kuwait regulators to leave the tarcrete material in place, rather than seek to undertake large-scale removal and remediation. The large-scale coverage of the tarcrete in the oil fields and perception that the residual contamination associated with this source is present in an environmentally sensitive area essentially in ground water resource. As part of this assessment, conceptual site model (CSM) and complete risk-based and fate and transport modelling was carried out which includes derivation of site-specific assessment criteria (SSAC) and quantification of risk to identified waters resource receptors posed by tarcrete impacted areas. The outcome of this assessment was determined that the residual tarcrete deposits across the site area shall not create risks to fresh groundwater resources and the remedial action to remove and remediate the surficial tarcrete deposits is not warranted.Keywords: conceptual site model, fresh groundwater, oil-contaminated soil, tarcrete, risk based assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1735075 Physical, Textural and Sensory Properties of Noodles Supplemented with Tilapia Bone Flour (Tilapia nilotica)
Authors: Supatchalee Sirichokworrakit
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Fishbone of Nile tilapia (Tilapia nilotica), waste from the frozen Nile tilapia fillet factory, is one of calcium sources. In order to increase fish bone powder value, this study aimed to investigate the effect of tilapia bone flour (TBF) addition (5, 10, 15% by flour weight) on cooking quality, texture and sensory attributes of noodles. The results indicated that tensile strength, color value (a*) and water absorption of noodles significantly decreased (p≤0.05) as the levels of TBF increased from 0-15%. While cooking loss, cooking time and color values (L* and b*) of noodles significantly increased (p≤0.05). Sensory evaluation indicated that noodles with 5% TBF received the highest overall acceptability score.Keywords: tilapia bone flour, noodles, cooking quality, calcium
Procedia PDF Downloads 3975074 Realizing the National Disaster Management Policy of Sri Lanka through Public Private Partnerships
Authors: K. W. A. M. Kokila, Matsui Kenichi
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Sri Lanka’s disaster management policy aims to protect lives and developments in disaster affected areas by effectively using resources for disaster risk reduction, emergency management, and community awareness. However, funding for these action programs has posed a serious challenge to the country’s economy. This paper examines the extent to which private-public partnerships (PPPs) can facilitate and expedite disaster management works. In particular, it discusses the results of the questionnaire survey among policymakers, government administrators, NGOs, and private businesses. This questionnaire was conducted in 2017. All respondents were selected based on their experience in PPP projects in the past. The survey focused on clarifying the effectiveness of past PPP projects as well as their efficiency and transparency. The respondents also provided their own opinions and suggestions to improve the future PPP projects in Sri Lanka. The questionnaire was distributed to fifteen persons. The results show that almost all respondents think that PPP projects are beneficial and important for future disaster risk management in Sri Lanka. The respondents, however, showed some reservation about effectiveness and transparency of the PPP process. This paper also discusses the results on the respondents’ perceptions about their capacity regarding human resources and management. This paper, overall, sheds light on technological, financial and human resource management practices in developed countries as well as policy and legislation provisions regarding PPP projects.Keywords: disaster management, policy, private public partnership, projects
Procedia PDF Downloads 1555073 Integrating Concepts in Positive Psychology with Suicide Prevention in Children and Adolescents
Authors: S. Wietrzychowski
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This systematic review incorporates concepts used in the field of positive psychology in order to integrate important elements into suicide prevention programs for children and adolescents. The goal of this review is to help students and professionals gain insight to available prevention programs for suicide and to incorporate aspects of positive psychology into these programs. Evidence-based interventions such as Positive Youth Development will be discussed in detail in its relation to prevention and positive psychology. Concepts such as hope, optimism, coping, and resilience will be related to these interventions in order to improve these interventions. The review will also explain how these programs can help prevent suicidal thoughts and/or behaviors. Research on mentorship programs and early intervention programs will be included and related to the aforementioned positive psychology concepts. Since children and adolescents are such a vulnerable population, the review will highlight specific considerations for working with children in order to prevent risk factors for suicide and to build protective factors. This review will discuss the effectiveness of school-based programs that are integrated with positive psychology. Elements of these programs that have been shown to be most effective in preventing suicide in schools will also be identified. As a result of this presentation, participants will be able to 1) List at least 2 evidence-based suicide prevention programs, 2) Understand the connection between specific positive psychology concepts and suicide prevention, 3) Identify at least 3 factors which protect against suicide, 4) Describe at least 3 risk factors for suicide, and 5) Think critically about the positive elements of suicide prevention programs.Keywords: children, adolescents, suicide, positive
Procedia PDF Downloads 3755072 Occurrence of Antibiotics of Veterinary Use in Water of the Lake Titicaca: Its Environmental Implication and Human Health
Authors: Franz Zirena Vilca, Nestor Cahui Galarza, Walter Alejandro Zamalloa Cuba, Edith Tello Palma, Teofilo Donaires Flores, Valdemar Luiz Tornisielo
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The production of rainbow trout in the Lake Titicaca represents an important economic activity for Peru. The city of Puno is responsible for 83% of this production, so the use of antibiotics within the aquaculture system is not alien to this reality. Meanwhile, the waters of Lake Titicaca represent an important source for the supply of drinking water for 80% of the population of the Puno city. In this paper, twelve antibiotics for veterinary use were monitored in water samples during two seasons: dry (July 2015) and rainy (February 2016), water samples from trout production systems, near the water catching point in the lake and drinking water in the city house of Puno were considered. The samples were analyzed using liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry and solid online phase extraction (On-line SPE-LC-MS/MS), all samples analyzed showed concentrations of Ciprofloxacin up to 65.2 ng L⁻¹ at the rainy season. On the other hand, 63% of water samples from the dry season and 36 % from the rainy season showed Chlortetracycline up to 8.7 and 6.1 ng L⁻¹, respectively. The presence of residues of veterinary antibiotics in drinking water means a serious health risk for 80% of the population of Puno since all these people are supplied from this source.Keywords: chromatography, DNA damage, environmental risk, water pollution
Procedia PDF Downloads 2185071 Analyzing the Mission Drift of Social Business: Case Study of Restaurant Providing Professional Training to At-Risk Youth
Authors: G. Yanay-Ventura, H. Desivilya Syna, K. Michael
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Social businesses are based on the idea that an enterprise can be established for the sake of profit and, at the same time, with the aim of fulfilling social goals. Yet, the question of how these goals can be integrated in practice to derive parallel benefit in both realms still needs to be examined. Particularly notable in this context is the ‘governance challenge’ of social businesses, meaning the danger of the mission drifts from the social goal in the pursuit of good business. This study is based on an evaluation study of a social business that operates as a restaurant providing professional training to at-risk youth. The evaluation was based on the collection of a variety of data through interviews with stakeholders in the enterprise (directors and managers, business partners, social partners, and position holders in the restaurant and the social enterprise), a focus group consisting of the youth receiving the professional training, observations of the restaurant’s operation, and analysis of the social enterprise’s primary documents. The evaluation highlighted significant strengths of the social enterprise, including reaching relatively fast business sustainability, effective management of the restaurant, stable employment of the restaurant staff, and effective management of the social project. The social enterprise and business management have both enjoyed positive evaluations from a variety of stakeholders. Clearly, the restaurant was deemed by all a promising young business. However, the social project suffered from a 90% dropout rate among the youth entering its ranks, extreme monthly fluctuation in the number of youths participating, and a distinct minority of the youth who have succeeded in completing their training period. Possible explanations of the high dropout rate included the small number of cooks, which impeded the effectiveness of the training process and the provision of advanced cooking skills; lack of clarity regarding the essence and the elements of training; and lack of a meaningful peer group for the youth engaged in the program. Paradoxically, despite the stakeholders’ great appreciation for the social enterprise, the challenge of governability was also formidable, revealing a tangible risk of mission drift in the reduction of the social enterprise’s target population and a breach of the commitment made to the youth with regard to practical training. The risk of mission drifts emerged as a hidden and evasive issue for the stakeholders, who revealed a deep appreciation for the management and the outcomes of the social enterprise. The challenge of integration, therefore, requires an in-depth examination of how to maintain a successful business without hindering the achievement of the social goal. The study concludes that clear conceptualization of the training process and its aims, increased cooks’ participation in the social project, and novel conceptions with regard to the evaluation of success could serve to benefit the youth and impede mission drift.Keywords: evaluation study, management, mission drift, social business
Procedia PDF Downloads 1085070 Public Bus Transport Passenger Safety Evaluations in Ghana: A Phenomenological Constructivist Exploration
Authors: Enoch F. Sam, Kris Brijs, Stijn Daniels, Tom Brijs, Geert Wets
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Notwithstanding the growing body of literature that recognises the importance of personal safety to public transport (PT) users, it remains unclear what PT users consider regarding their safety. In this study, we explore the criteria PT users in Ghana use to assess bus safety. This knowledge will afford a better understanding of PT users’ risk perceptions and assessments which may contribute to theoretical models of PT risk perceptions. We utilised phenomenological research methodology, with data drawn from 61 purposively sampled participants. Data collection (through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews) and analyses were done concurrently to the point of saturation. Our inductive data coding and analyses through the constant comparison and content analytic techniques resulted in 4 code categories (conceptual dimensions), 27 codes (safety items/criteria), and 100 quotations (data segments). Of the number of safety criteria participants use to assess bus safety, vehicle condition, driver’s marital status, and transport operator’s safety records were the most considered. With each criterion, participants rightly demonstrated its respective relevance to bus safety. These findings imply that investment in and maintenance of safer vehicles, and responsible and safety-conscious drivers, and prioritization of passengers’ safety are key-targets for public bus/minibus operators in Ghana.Keywords: safety evaluations, public bus/minibus, passengers, phenomenology, Ghana
Procedia PDF Downloads 3285069 Carbon Capture and Storage: Prospects in India
Authors: Abhinav Sirvaiya, Karan Gupta, Pankaj Garg
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The demand of energy is increasing at every part of the world. Thus, use of fossil fuel is efficient which results in large liberation of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Tons of this CO2 raises the risk of dangerous climate changes. To minimize the risk carbon capture and storage (CCS) has to be used so that the emitted carbon dioxide do not reach the atmosphere. CCS is being considered as one of the options that could have a major role to play in India.With the growing awareness towards the global warming, carbon capture and sequestration has a great importance. New technologies and theories are in use to capture CO2. This paper contains the methodology and technologies that is in use to capture carbon dioxide in India. The present scenario of CCS is also being discussed. CCS is playing a major role in enhancing recovery of oil (ERO). Both the purpose 1) minimizing percentage of carbon dioxide in atmosphere and 2) enhancing recovery of oil are fulfilled from the CCS. The CO2 is usually captured from coal based power plant and from some industrial sources and then stored in the geological formations like oil and gas reservoir and deep aquifers or in oceans. India has large reservoirs of coal which are being used for storing CO2, as coal is a good absorbent of CO2. New technologies and studies are going on for injection purposes. Government has initiated new plans for CCS as CCS is technically feasible and economically attractive. A discussion is done on new schemes that should bring up CCS plans and approaches. Stakeholders are welcomed for suitability of CCS. There is still a need to potentially capture the CO2 and avail its storage in developing country like India.Keywords: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), carbon dioxide (CO2), enhance oil recovery, geological formations, stakeholders
Procedia PDF Downloads 4645068 Loan Supply and Asset Price Volatility: An Experimental Study
Authors: Gabriele Iannotta
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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1185067 Prevalence of Obesity and Associated Risk Factors in South African Employees
Authors: Jeanne Grace, Shereen Currie
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Background: Obesity associated comorbidities increase the risk of morbidity and mortality among employees in the workplace. Objectives: The study aimed to determine the prevalence of obesity and comorbidities like diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia associated with obesity within the workplace in South Africa. Methods: A total of 17359 male (n = 8561) and female (n = 8798) employees, aged between 18-64 years (40.8 ± 11.0), from various corporate and industrial companies in South Africa participated in the study. Subjects were assigned to one of five body mass index (BMI) categories, according to their BMI: normal weight, BMI of 18.5‒24.9 kg/m² (n = 7338); overweight, BMI of 25.0‒29.9 kg/m² (n = 6323); obese class I, BMI of 30.0-34.9 kg/m² (n = 2552); obese class II, BMI of 35.0-39.9 kg/m² (n = 782); and obese class III, BMI of ≥ 40 kg/m² (n = 364). Height, weight, blood pressure, random blood glucose, and total cholesterol were measured. Results: The prevalence of normal weight men was 29.2% and women 55.0%; overweight men 46.4% and women 26.7%, obese men 24.4% and women 18.3%. A significant association (p<0.01) of BMI with diabetes, systolic and diastolic hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia were noted. Conclusion: Obesity is strongly associated with adverse comorbidities that may impact employees’ quality of life and performance. If unaddressed, it can increase comorbidities, not only affecting the bottom line of companies but causing morbidity and mortality, including sudden death.Keywords: body mass index, cholesterol, blood glucose, workplace
Procedia PDF Downloads 1785066 The Occurrence of Depression with Chronic Liver Disease
Authors: Roop Kiran, Muhammad Shoaib Zafar, Nazish Idrees Chaudhary
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Depression is known to be the second most frequently occurring comorbid mental illness among patients suffering from chronic physical conditions. Around the world, depression is associated with chronic liver diseases as one of the dominant symptoms. This evidence brings attention to the research about various predictors for short life expectancy and poor quality of life in patients suffering from comorbid depression and CLD. Following are the objectives of this study i) measure the occurrence rate of comorbid depression among patients with CLD and ii) find the frequency of risk factors between patients with and without depression comorbid with CLD. This is a quantitative study with a cross-sectional design. The research data was collected through a measure called Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) with a demographic Performa from 100 patients who visited the Department of Psychiatry for consultation at Mayo Hospital Lahore with a diagnosed CLD from the last four years. There were (42%) patients with CLD who had comorbid depression. Among depressed and non-depressed patients, significant differences were found (p<0.05) for unemployment in 25 (59.5%) males and 20 (34.5%) female patients, for co-morbidity in 25 (59.5%) males and 18 (31.0%) female patients, for illiteracy in 18 (42.9%) males and 13 (22.4%) female patients, for the history of CLD for more than the last 2years in 41 (97.6%) males and 47 (81.0%) female patients, for severity of CLD in 26 (61.9%) males and 20 (34.5%) female patients. This concludes that depression frequently occurs among patients with CLD. This study recommends considerable attention to plan preventative measures in the future and develop such intervention protocols that consider the management of risk factors that significantly influence comorbid depression with CLD.Keywords: psychiatry, comorbid, health, quality of life
Procedia PDF Downloads 1935065 A Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson Model with an Underlying Cluster Structure for the Analysis of Measles in Colombia
Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez
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In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1475064 Variability of Surface Air Temperature in Sri Lanka and Its Relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole
Authors: Athdath Waduge Susantha Janaka Kumara, Xiefei Zhi, Zin Mie Mie Sein
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Understanding the air temperature variability is crucially important for disaster risk reduction and management. In this study, we used 15 synoptic meteorological stations to assess the spatiotemporal variability of air temperature over Sri Lanka during 1972–2021. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Principal component analysis (PCA), Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis and correlation coefficient analysis were used to investigate the long-term trends of air temperature and their possible relation to sea surface temperature (SST) over the region. The results indicate that an increasing trend in air temperature was observed with the abrupt climate change noted in the year 1994. The spatial distribution of EOF1 (63.5%) shows the positive and negative loading dipole patterns from south to northeast, while EOF2 (23.4%) explains warmer (colder) in some parts of central (south and east) areas. The power spectrum of PC1 (PC2) indicates that there is a significant period of 3-4 years (quasi-2 years). Moreover, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) provides a strong positive correlation with the air temperature of Sri Lanka, while the EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a weak negative correlation. Therefore, IOD events led to higher temperatures in the region. This study’s findings can help disaster risk reduction and management in the country.Keywords: air temperature, interannaul variability, ENSO, IOD
Procedia PDF Downloads 915063 A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Dichotomous Treatment Effects: A Simulation Study
Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming
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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study
Procedia PDF Downloads 1075062 Application of Forward Contract and Crop Insurance as Risk Management Tools of Agriculture: A Case Study in Bangladesh
Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid
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The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model
Procedia PDF Downloads 1505061 Assessment of Aflatoxins in Marketed Fish: A Potential Forgotten Risk in Cameroon
Authors: Evelyne Nguegwouo, Raoul Fonkem Sonfack Tsakem, Abel Wade, Gabriel Nama Medoua, Kamgaing Theophile
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Fresh and smoked fish are widely consumed in Cameroon. The traditional nature of smoking, the lack of hygiene in production, the poor preservation of stocks and the long storage time for certain types of fish considerably favor the contamination of products by molds, which secrete toxic molecules called mycotoxins. Today there are more than 400 types of mycotoxins, Aflatoxins being the most formidable. These toxins are considered carcinogenic in humans. It is in this perspective that we proposed to evaluate the total Aflatoxins in the fish marketed and consumed by the populations of the city of Yaoundé in Cameroon. On the one hand, it was a question of conducting a survey of fish consumers and sellers in points of sale, sampling fish of three species [Marquereau (Scomber scombrus), Cod (Gadus morhua) and Bifaka (Ethmalosa fimbriata)], randomly in some markets of the city to evaluate the total Aflatoxins contents (B1, B2, G1, G2) by the quantitative ELISA method and finally to estimate the level of exposure of the populations. It emerges from this study that of the 30 samples analyzed, 96.1% contained total Aflatoxins and two samples had total Aflatoxins levels above the standard, which is 20 ppb. These first results show that the risk is present in Cameroon and in order to improve the quality of marketed fish in terms of mycotoxins, a more thorough control must be done from the production chain to the consumer.Keywords: aflatoxins, evaluation, exposure, mycotoxins, fish
Procedia PDF Downloads 705060 Discovering Semantic Links Between Synonyms, Hyponyms and Hypernyms
Authors: Ricardo Avila, Gabriel Lopes, Vania Vidal, Jose Macedo
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This proposal aims for semantic enrichment between glossaries using the Simple Knowledge Organization System (SKOS) vocabulary to discover synonyms, hyponyms and hyperonyms semiautomatically, in Brazilian Portuguese, generating new semantic relationships based on WordNet. To evaluate the quality of this proposed model, experiments were performed by the use of two sets containing new relations, being one generated automatically and the other manually mapped by the domain expert. The applied evaluation metrics were precision, recall, f-score, and confidence interval. The results obtained demonstrate that the applied method in the field of Oil Production and Extraction (E&P) is effective, which suggests that it can be used to improve the quality of terminological mappings. The procedure, although adding complexity in its elaboration, can be reproduced in others domains.Keywords: ontology matching, mapping enrichment, semantic web, linked data, SKOS
Procedia PDF Downloads 2045059 Assessing the Effects of Entrepreneurship Education and Moderating Variables on Venture Creation Intention of Undergraduate Students in Ghana
Authors: Daniel K. Gameti
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The paper explored the effects of active and passive entrepreneurship education methods on the venture creation intention of undergraduate students in Ghana. The study also examined the moderating effect of gender and negative personal characteristics (risk tolerance, stress tolerance and fear of failure) on students’ venture creation intention. Deductive approach was used in collecting quantitative data from 555 business students from one public university and one private university through self-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistic was used to determine the dominant method of entrepreneurship education used in Ghana. Further, structural equation model was used to test four hypotheses. The results of the study show that the dominant method of education used in Ghana was lectures and the least method used was field trip. The study further revealed that passive methods of education are less effective compared to active methods which were statistically significant in venture creation intention among students. There was also statistical difference between male and female students’ venture creation intention but stronger among male students and finally, the only personal characteristics that influence students’ intention was stress tolerance because risk tolerance and fear of failure were statistically insignificant.Keywords: entrepreneurship education, Ghana, moderating variables, venture creation intention, undergraduate students
Procedia PDF Downloads 4495058 Strategies for Success: Strategic Thinking’s Critical Role in Entrepreneurial
Authors: Silvia Rahmita
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Entrepreneurial success is crucial for economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation, yet many entrepreneurs face failure due to various challenges. This paper explores the critical role of strategic thinking in mitigating entrepreneurial failure. Entrepreneurial competencies—encompassing knowledge, skills, and traits—are essential for creating and growing ventures. Despite these competencies, numerous entrepreneurs fail due to poor management, inadequate support, and ineffective policies. The paper categorizes entrepreneurial failures into financial, operational, market, product or service, strategic, leadership, legal, human capital, technological, and environmental failures. Each failure type can be addressed through strategic thinking, which involves foresight, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and hypothesis-driven processes. By integrating strategic thinking into their approach, entrepreneurs can enhance risk management, adapt to market changes, and sustain growth. This process involves setting clear goals, innovating products, and maintaining a competitive edge. Ultimately, strategic thinking provides a framework for proactive planning, adaptation, and continuous improvement, reducing the likelihood of failure and ensuring long-term success. Entrepreneurs who prioritize strategic thinking are better equipped to navigate the complexities of the business environment and achieve sustainable growth.Keywords: entrepreneurial failure, strategic thinking, risk management, business failure
Procedia PDF Downloads 295057 Electronic Patient Record (EPR) System in South Africa: Results of a Pilot Study
Authors: Temitope O. Tokosi, Visvanathan Naicker
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Patient health records contain sensitive information for which an electronic patient record (EPR) system can safely secure and transmit amongst clinicians for use in improving health delivery. Clinician’s use of the behaviour of these systems is under scrutiny to assess their attributes towards health technology. South Africa (SA) clinicians responded to a pilot study survey to assess their understanding of EPR, what attributes are important towards technology use and more importantly streamlining the survey for a larger study. Descriptive statistics using mean scores was used because of the small sample size of 11 clinicians who completed the survey. Nine (9) constructs comprising 62 items were used and a Cronbach alpha score of 0.883 was obtained. Limitations and discussions conclude the study.Keywords: EPR, clinicians, pilot study, South Africa
Procedia PDF Downloads 2585056 Development and Testing of Health Literacy Scales for Chinese Primary and Secondary School Students
Authors: Jiayue Guo, Lili You
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Background: Children and adolescent health are crucial for both personal well-being and the nation's future health landscape. Health Literacy (HL) is important in enabling adolescents to self-manage their health, a fundamental step towards health empowerment. However, there are limited tools for assessing HL among elementary and junior high school students. This study aims to construct and validate a test-based HL scale for Chinese students, offering a scientific reference for cross-cultural HL tool development. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey. Participants were recruited from a stratified cluster random sampling method, a total of 4189 Chinese in-school primary and secondary students. The development of the scale was completed by defining the concept of HL, establishing the item indicator system, screening items (7 health content dimensions), and evaluating reliability and validity. Delphi method expert consultation was used to screen items, the Rasch model was conducted for quality analysis, and Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was used to examine the internal consistency. Results: We developed four versions of the HL scale, each with a total score of 100, encompassing seven key health areas: hygiene, nutrition, physical activity, mental health, disease prevention, safety awareness, and digital health literacy. Each version measures four dimensions of health competencies: knowledge, skills, motivation, and behavior. After the second round of expert consultation, the average importance score of each item by experts is 4.5–5.0, and the coefficient of variation is 0.000–0.174. The knowledge and skills dimensions are judgment-based and multiple-choice questions, with the Rasch model confirming unidimensionality at a 5.7% residual variance. The behavioral and motivational dimensions, measured with scale-type items, demonstrated internal consistency via Cronbach's alpha and strong inter-item correlation with KMO values of 0.924 and 0.787, respectively. Bartlett's test of sphericity, with p-values <0.001, further substantiates the scale's reliability. Conclusions: The new test-based scale, designed to evaluate competencies within a multifaceted framework, aligns with current international adolescent literacy theories and China's health education policies, focusing not only on knowledge acquisition but also on the application of health-related thinking and behaviors. The scale can be used as a comprehensive tool for HL evaluation and a reference for other countries.Keywords: adolescent health, Chinese, health literacy, rasch model, scale development
Procedia PDF Downloads 105055 Fostering Non-Traditional Student Success in an Online Music Appreciation Course
Authors: Linda Fellag, Arlene Caney
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E-learning has earned an essential place in academia because it promotes learner autonomy, student engagement, and technological aptitude, and allows for flexible learning. However, despite advantages, educators have been slower to embrace e-learning for ESL and other non-traditional students for fear that such students will not succeed without the direct faculty contact and academic support of face-to-face classrooms. This study aims to determine if a non-traditional student-friendly online course can produce student retention and performance rates that compare favorably with those of students in standard online sections of the same course aimed at traditional college-level students. One Music faculty member is currently collaborating with an English instructor to redesign an online college-level Music Appreciation course for non-traditional college students. At Community College of Philadelphia, Introduction to Music Appreciation was recently designated as one of the few college-level courses that advanced ESL, and developmental English students can take while completing their language studies. Beginning in Fall 2017, the course will be critical for international students who must maintain full-time student status under visa requirements. In its current online format, however, Music Appreciation is designed for traditional college students, and faculty who teach these sections have been reluctant to revise the course to address the needs of non-traditional students. Interestingly, presenters maintain that the online platform is the ideal place to develop language and college readiness skills in at-risk students while maintaining the course's curricular integrity. The two faculty presenters describe how curriculum rather than technology drives the redesign of the digitized music course, and self-study materials, guided assignments, and periodic assessments promote independent learning and comprehension of material. The 'scaffolded' modules allow ESL and developmental English students to build on prior knowledge, preview key vocabulary, discuss content, and complete graded tasks that demonstrate comprehension. Activities and assignments, in turn, enhance college success by allowing students to practice academic reading strategies, writing, speaking, and student-faculty and peer-peer communication and collaboration. The course components facilitate a comparison of student performance and retention in sections of the redesigned and existing online sections of Music Appreciation as well as in previous sections with at-risk students. Indirect, qualitative measures include student attitudinal surveys and evaluations. Direct, quantitative measures include withdrawal rates, tests of disciplinary knowledge, and final grades. The study will compare the outcomes of three cohorts in the two versions of the online course: ESL students, at-risk developmental students, and college-level students. These data will also be compared with retention and student outcomes data of the three cohorts in f2f Music Appreciation, which permitted non-traditional student enrollment from 1998-2005. During this eight-year period, the presenter addressed the problems of at-risk students by adding language and college success support, which resulted in strong retention and outcomes. The presenters contend that the redesigned course will produce favorable outcomes among all three cohorts because it contains components which proved successful with at-risk learners in f2f sections of the course. Results of their study will be published in 2019 after the redesigned online course has met for two semesters.Keywords: college readiness, e-learning, music appreciation, online courses
Procedia PDF Downloads 1705054 Simulation of Colombian Exchange Rate to Cover the Exchange Risk Using Financial Options Like Hedge Strategy
Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis
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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options
Procedia PDF Downloads 1205053 Prevalence, Awareness, and Risk Factors of Diabetes in Ahvaz: South West of Iran
Authors: Leila Yazdanpanah, Hajieh Shahbazian, Seyed Mahmoud Latifi, Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Saeed Ghanbari
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Introduction: This study was designed to determine the prevalence of diabetes in people aged over 20 years in Ahvaz, Iran. Material and Methods: The study population selected by cluster sampling. Fasting blood sugar (FBS) assessed after minimum 8 hours night fasting. A questionnaire included: age, sex, weight, height, blood pressure, waist circumference and previous history of diabetes were completed for each patient. FBS≥126mg/dl and/or oral hypoglycemic treatment and/or insulin was defined as diabetes, FBS=100-125 mg/dl as impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and FBS<100mg/dl as normal. Results: Study population was 936 persons (47.2 % male and 52.8% female). The mean age of a population was 42.2±14 years. Diabetes was detected in 15.1 % of population. Only 57cases(6.1%) were aware of their disease and 9% had unknown diabetes. Diabetes was detected in 14.5% of male (11.3% unknown and 3.2 % known diabetes) and in 11.7% of female (7% unknown and 4.7% known diabetes). Prevalence of diabetes had no significant difference (P=0.21) in male and female but unknown diabetes was significantly higher in male (P=0.025). Prevalence of diabetes was increased with rising of age between 20-60 years old but decreasing after 60 years old. Diabetes was related to age, waist circumference and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, TG level and BMI in both sex (P=0.0001). Conclusion: More than half of female and three-fourth of male diabetic patients are unaware of their disease in South of Iran. Diabetes screening should be intensified in this population.Keywords: diabetes, prevalence, risk factor, awareness
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