Search results for: marketing intelligence
87 Development and Adaptation of a LGBM Machine Learning Model, with a Suitable Concept Drift Detection and Adaptation Technique, for Barcelona Household Electric Load Forecasting During Covid-19 Pandemic Periods (Pre-Pandemic and Strict Lockdown)
Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez
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While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)
Procedia PDF Downloads 10586 Media, Myth and Hero: Sacred Political Narrative in Semiotic and Anthropological Analysis
Authors: Guilherme Oliveira
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The assimilation of images and their potential symbolism into lived experiences is inherent. It is through this exercise of recognition via imagistic records that the questioning of the origins of a constant narrative stimulated by the media arises. The construction of the "Man" archetype and the reflections of active masculine imagery in the 21st century, when conveyed through media channels, could potentially have detrimental effects. Addressing this systematic behavioral chronology of virile cisgender, permeated imagistically through these means, involves exploring potential resolutions. Thus, an investigation process is initiated into the potential representation of the 'hero' in this media emulation through idols contextualized in the political sphere, with the purpose of elucidating the processes of simulation and emulation of narratives based on mythical, historical, and sacred accounts. In this process of sharing, the narratives contained in the imagistic structuring offered by information dissemination channels seek validation through a process of public acceptance. To achieve this consensus, a visual set adorned with mythological and sacred symbolisms adapted to the intended environment is promoted, thus utilizing sociocultural characteristics in favor of political marketing. Visual recognition, therefore, becomes a direct reflection of a cultural heritage acquired through lived human experience, stimulated by continuous representations throughout history. Echoes of imagery and narratives undergo a constant process of resignification of their concepts, sharpened by their premises, and adapted to the environment in which they seek to establish themselves. Political figures analyzed in this article employ the practice of taking possession of symbolisms, mythological stories, and heroisms and adapt their visual construction through a continuous praxis of emulation. Thus, they utilize iconic mythological narratives to gain credibility through belief. Utilizing iconic mythological narratives for credibility through belief, the idol becomes the very act of release of trauma, offering believers liberation from preconceived concepts and allowing for the attribution of new meanings. To dissolve this issue and highlight the subjectivities within the intention of the image, a linguistic, semiotic, and anthropological methodology is created. Linguistics uses expressions like 'Blaming the Image' to create a mechanism of expressive action in questioning why to blame a construction or visual composition and thus seek answers in the first act. Semiotics and anthropology develop an imagistic atlas of graphic analysis, seeking to make connections, comparisons, and relations between modern and sacred/mystical narratives, emphasizing the different subjective layers of embedded symbolism. Thus, it constitutes a performative act of disarming the image. It creates a disenchantment of the superficial gaze under the constant reproduction of visual content stimulated by virtual networks, enabling a discussion about the acceptance of caricatures characterized by past fables.Keywords: image, heroic narrative, media heroism, virile politics, political, myth, sacred performance, visual mythmaking, characterization dynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 5085 Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines
Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama
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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines
Procedia PDF Downloads 29284 Use of Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Efficient Irrigation Management
Authors: Adriana Postal, Silvio C. Sampaio, Marcio A. Villas Boas, Josué P. Castro
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This study deals with the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in an agricultural context, focusing on efficient irrigation management to meet the growing interest in the sustainable management of water resources. Given the importance of water in agriculture and its scarcity in many regions, efficient use of this resource is essential to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The methodology used involved the application of artificial intelligence techniques, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to predict ET₀ in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The models were trained and validated with meteorological data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), together with data obtained from a producer's weather station in the western region of Paraná. Two optimizers (SGD and Adam) and different meteorological variables, such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, were explored as inputs to the models. Nineteen configurations with different input variables were tested; amidst them, configuration 9, with 8 input variables, was identified as the most efficient of all. Configuration 10, with 4 input variables, was considered the most effective, considering the smallest number of variables. The main conclusions of this study show that MLP ANNs are capable of accurately estimating ET₀, providing a valuable tool for irrigation management in agriculture. Both configurations (9 and 10) showed promising performance in predicting ET₀. The validation of the models with cultivator data underlined the practical relevance of these tools and confirmed their generalization ability for different field conditions. The results of the statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²), showed excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observed data, with MAE as low as 0.01 mm/day and 0.03 mm/day, respectively. In addition, the models achieved an R² between 0.99 and 1, indicating a satisfactory fit to the real data. This agreement was also confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which evaluates the agreement of the predictions with the statistical behavior of the real data and yields values between 0.02 and 0.04 for the producer data. In addition, the results of this study suggest that the developed technique can be applied to other locations by using specific data from these sites to further improve ET₀ predictions and thus contribute to sustainable irrigation management in different agricultural regions. The study has some limitations, such as the use of a single ANN architecture and two optimizers, the validation with data from only one producer, and the possible underestimation of the influence of seasonality and local climate variability. An irrigation management application using the most efficient models from this study is already under development. Future research can explore different ANN architectures and optimization techniques, validate models with data from multiple producers and regions, and investigate the model's response to different seasonal and climatic conditions.Keywords: agricultural technology, neural networks in agriculture, water efficiency, water use optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 4983 The Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Mobile Phones and Communication Systems
Authors: Ibram Khalafalla Roshdy Shokry
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This paper gives service feel multiple get entry to (CSMA) verbal exchange model based totally totally on SoC format method. Such model can be used to guide the modelling of the complex c084d04ddacadd4b971ae3d98fecfb2a communique systems, consequently use of such communication version is an crucial method in the creation of excessive general overall performance conversation. SystemC has been selected as it gives a homogeneous format drift for complicated designs (i.e. SoC and IP based format). We use a swarm device to validate CSMA designed version and to expose how advantages of incorporating communication early within the layout process. The wireless conversation created via the modeling of CSMA protocol that may be used to attain conversation among all of the retailers and to coordinate get proper of entry to to the shared medium (channel).The device of automobiles with wi-fiwireless communique abilities is expected to be the important thing to the evolution to next era intelligent transportation systems (ITS). The IEEE network has been continuously operating at the development of an wireless vehicular communication protocol for the enhancement of wi-fi get admission to in Vehicular surroundings (WAVE). Vehicular verbal exchange systems, known as V2X, help car to car (V2V) and automobile to infrastructure (V2I) communications. The wi-ficiencywireless of such communication systems relies upon on several elements, amongst which the encircling surroundings and mobility are prominent. as a result, this observe makes a speciality of the evaluation of the actual performance of vehicular verbal exchange with unique cognizance on the effects of the actual surroundings and mobility on V2X verbal exchange. It begins by wi-fi the actual most range that such conversation can guide and then evaluates V2I and V2V performances. The Arada LocoMate OBU transmission device changed into used to check and evaluate the effect of the transmission range in V2X verbal exchange. The evaluation of V2I and V2V communique takes the real effects of low and excessive mobility on transmission under consideration.Multiagent systems have received sizeable attention in numerous wi-fields, which include robotics, independent automobiles, and allotted computing, where a couple of retailers cooperate and speak to reap complicated duties. wi-figreen communication among retailers is a critical thing of these systems, because it directly influences their usual performance and scalability. This scholarly work gives an exploration of essential communication factors and conducts a comparative assessment of diverse protocols utilized in multiagent systems. The emphasis lies in scrutinizing the strengths, weaknesses, and applicability of those protocols across diverse situations. The studies additionally sheds light on rising tendencies within verbal exchange protocols for multiagent systems, together with the incorporation of device mastering strategies and the adoption of blockchain-based totally solutions to make sure comfy communique. those developments offer valuable insights into the evolving landscape of multiagent structures and their verbal exchange protocols.Keywords: communication, multi-agent systems, protocols, consensussystemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA
Procedia PDF Downloads 2582 Measuring Firms’ Patent Management: Conceptualization, Validation, and Interpretation
Authors: Mehari Teshome, Lara Agostini, Anna Nosella
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The current knowledge-based economy extends intellectual property rights (IPRs) legal research themes into a more strategic and organizational perspectives. From the diverse types of IPRs, patents are the strongest and well-known form of legal protection that influences commercial success and market value. Indeed, from our pilot survey, we understood that firms are less likely to manage their patents and actively used it as a tool for achieving competitive advantage rather they invest resource and efforts for patent application. To this regard, the literature also confirms that insights into how firms manage their patents from a holistic, strategic perspective, and how the portfolio value of patents can be optimized are scarce. Though patent management is an important business tool and there exist few scales to measure some dimensions of patent management, at the best of our knowledge, no systematic attempt has been made to develop a valid and comprehensive measure of it. Considering this theoretical and practical point of view, the aim of this article is twofold: to develop a framework for patent management encompassing all relevant dimensions with their respective constructs and measurement items, and to validate the measurement using survey data from practitioners. Methodology: We used six-step methodological approach (i.e., specify the domain of construct, item generation, scale purification, internal consistency assessment, scale validation, and replication). Accordingly, we carried out a systematic review of 182 articles on patent management, from ISI Web of Science. For each article, we mapped relevant constructs, their definition, and associated features, as well as items used to measure these constructs, when provided. This theoretical analysis was complemented by interviews with experts in patent management to get feedbacks that are more practical on how patent management is carried out in firms. Afterwards, we carried out a questionnaire survey to purify our scales and statistical validation. Findings: The analysis allowed us to design a framework for patent management, identifying its core dimensions (i.e., generation, portfolio-management, exploitation and enforcement, intelligence) and support dimensions (i.e., strategy and organization). Moreover, we identified the relevant activities for each dimension, as well as the most suitable items to measure them. For example, the core dimension generation includes constructs as: state-of-the-art analysis, freedom-to-operate analysis, patent watching, securing freedom-to-operate, patent potential and patent-geographical-scope. Originality and the Study Contribution: This study represents a first step towards the development of sound scales to measure patent management with an overarching approach, thus laying the basis for developing a recognized landmark within the research area of patent management. Practical Implications: The new scale can be used to assess the level of sophistication of the patent management of a company and compare it with other firms in the industry to evaluate their ability to manage the different activities involved in patent management. In addition, the framework resulting from this analysis can be used as a guide that supports managers to improve patent management in firms.Keywords: patent, management, scale, development, intellectual property rights (IPRs)
Procedia PDF Downloads 14881 The Effects of Labeling Cues on Sensory and Affective Responses of Consumers to Categories of Functional Food Carriers: A Mixed Factorial ANOVA Design
Authors: Hedia El Ourabi, Marc Alexandre Tomiuk, Ahmed Khalil Ben Ayed
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The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of the labeling cues traceability (T), health claim (HC), and verification of health claim (VHC) on consumer affective response and sensory appeal toward a wide array of functional food carriers (FFC). Predominantly, research in the food area has tended to examine the effects of these information cues independently on cognitive responses to food product offerings. Investigations and findings of potential interaction effects among these factors on effective response and sensory appeal are therefore scant. Moreover, previous studies have typically emphasized single or limited sets of functional food products and categories. In turn, this study considers five food product categories enriched with omega-3 fatty acids, namely: meat products, eggs, cereal products, dairy products and processed fruits and vegetables. It is, therefore, exhaustive in scope rather than exclusive. An investigation of the potential simultaneous effects of these information cues on the affective responses and sensory appeal of consumers should give rise to important insights to both functional food manufacturers and policymakers. A mixed (2 x 3) x (2 x 5) between-within subjects factorial ANOVA design was implemented in this study. T (two levels: completely traceable or non-traceable) and HC (three levels: functional health claim, or disease risk reduction health claim, or disease prevention health claim) were treated as between-subjects factors whereas VHC (two levels: by a government agency and by a non-government agency) and FFC (five food categories) were modeled as within-subjects factors. Subjects were randomly assigned to one of the six between-subjects conditions. A total of 463 questionnaires were obtained from a convenience sample of undergraduate students at various universities in the Montreal and Ottawa areas (in Canada). Consumer affective response and sensory appeal were respectively measured via the following statements assessed on seven-point semantic differential scales: ‘Your evaluation of [food product category] enriched with omega-3 fatty acids is Unlikeable (1) / Likeable (7)’ and ‘Your evaluation of [food product category] enriched with omega-3 fatty acids is Unappetizing (1) / Appetizing (7).’ Results revealed a significant interaction effect between HC and VHC on consumer affective response as well as on sensory appeal toward foods enriched with omega-3 fatty acids. On the other hand, the three-way interaction effect between T, HC, and VHC on either of the two dependent variables was not significant. However, the triple interaction effect among T, VHC, and FFC was significant on consumer effective response and the interaction effect among T, HC, and FFC was significant on consumer sensory appeal. Findings of this study should serve as impetus for functional food manufacturers to closely cooperate with policymakers in order to improve on and legitimize the use of health claims in their marketing efforts through credible verification practices and protocols put in place by trusted government agencies. Finally, both functional food manufacturers and retailers may benefit from the socially-responsible image which is conveyed by product offerings whose ingredients remain traceable from farm to kitchen table.Keywords: functional foods, labeling cues, effective appeal, sensory appeal
Procedia PDF Downloads 16480 Knowledge Based Software Model for the Management and Treatment of Malaria Patients: A Case of Kalisizo General Hospital
Authors: Mbonigaba Swale
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Malaria is an infection or disease caused by parasites (Plasmodium Falciparum — causes severe Malaria, plasmodium Vivax, Plasmodium Ovale, and Plasmodium Malariae), transmitted by bites of infected anopheles (female) mosquitoes to humans. These vectors comprise of two types in Africa, particularly in Uganda, i.e. anopheles fenestus and Anopheles gambaie (‘example Anopheles arabiensis,,); feeds on man inside the house mainly at dusk, mid-night and dawn and rests indoors and makes them effective transmitters (vectors) of the disease. People in both urban and rural areas have consistently become prone to repetitive attacks of malaria, causing a lot of deaths and significantly increasing the poverty levels of the rural poor. Malaria is a national problem; it causes a lot of maternal pre-natal and antenatal disorders, anemia in pregnant mothers, low birth weights for the newly born, convulsions and epilepsy among the infants. Cumulatively, it kills about one million children every year in sub-Saharan Africa. It has been estimated to account for 25-35% of all outpatient visits, 20-45% of acute hospital admissions and 15-35% of hospital deaths. Uganda is the leading victim country, for which Rakai and Masaka districts are the most affected. So, it is not clear whether these abhorrent situations and episodes of recurrences and failure to cure from the disease are a result of poor diagnosis, prescription and dosing, treatment habits and compliance of the patients to the drugs or the ethical domain of the stake holders in relation to the main stream methodology of malaria management. The research is aimed at offering an alternative approach to manage and deal absolutely with problem by using a knowledge based software model of Artificial Intelligence (Al) that is capable of performing common-sense and cognitive reasoning so as to take decisions like the human brain would do to provide instantaneous expert solutions so as to avoid speculative simulation of the problem during differential diagnosis in the most accurate and literal inferential aspect. This system will assist physicians in many kinds of medical diagnosis, prescribing treatments and doses, and in monitoring patient responses, basing on the body weight and age group of the patient, it will be able to provide instantaneous and timely information options, alternative ways and approaches to influence decision making during case analysis. The computerized system approach, a new model in Uganda termed as “Software Aided Treatment” (SAT) will try to change the moral and ethical approach and influence conduct so as to improve the skills, experience and values (social and ethical) in the administration and management of the disease and drugs (combination therapy and generics) by both the patient and the health worker.Keywords: knowledge based software, management, treatment, diagnosis
Procedia PDF Downloads 5779 Radish Sprout Growth Dependency on LED Color in Plant Factory Experiment
Authors: Tatsuya Kasuga, Hidehisa Shimada, Kimio Oguchi
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Recent rapid progress in ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has advanced the penetration of sensor networks (SNs) and their attractive applications. Agriculture is one of the fields well able to benefit from ICT. Plant factories control several parameters related to plant growth in closed areas such as air temperature, humidity, water, culture medium concentration, and artificial lighting by using computers and AI (Artificial Intelligence) is being researched in order to obtain stable and safe production of vegetables and medicinal plants all year anywhere, and attain self-sufficiency in food. By providing isolation from the natural environment, a plant factory can achieve higher productivity and safe products. However, the biggest issue with plant factories is the return on investment. Profits are tenuous because of the large initial investments and running costs, i.e. electric power, incurred. At present, LED (Light Emitting Diode) lights are being adopted because they are more energy-efficient and encourage photosynthesis better than the fluorescent lamps used in the past. However, further cost reduction is essential. This paper introduces experiments that reveal which color of LED lighting best enhances the growth of cultured radish sprouts. Radish sprouts were cultivated in the experimental environment formed by a hydroponics kit with three cultivation shelves (28 samples per shelf) each with an artificial lighting rack. Seven LED arrays of different color (white, blue, yellow green, green, yellow, orange, and red) were compared with a fluorescent lamp as the control. Lighting duration was set to 12 hours a day. Normal water with no fertilizer was circulated. Seven days after germination, the length, weight and area of leaf of each sample were measured. Electrical power consumption for all lighting arrangements was also measured. Results and discussions: As to average sample length, no clear difference was observed in terms of color. As regards weight, orange LED was less effective and the difference was significant (p < 0.05). As to leaf area, blue, yellow and orange LEDs were significantly less effective. However, all LEDs offered higher productivity per W consumed than the fluorescent lamp. Of the LEDs, the blue LED array attained the best results in terms of length, weight and area of leaf per W consumed. Conclusion and future works: An experiment on radish sprout cultivation under 7 different color LED arrays showed no clear difference in terms of sample size. However, if electrical power consumption is considered, LEDs offered about twice the growth rate of the fluorescent lamp. Among them, blue LEDs showed the best performance. Further cost reduction e.g. low power lighting remains a big issue for actual system deployment. An automatic plant monitoring system with sensors is another study target.Keywords: electric power consumption, LED color, LED lighting, plant factory
Procedia PDF Downloads 18878 Assessment of Neurodevelopmental Needs in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy
Authors: Mathula Thangarajh
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Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a severe form of X-linked muscular dystrophy caused by mutations in the dystrophin gene resulting in progressive skeletal muscle weakness. Boys with DMD also have significant cognitive disabilities. The intelligence quotient of boys with DMD, compared to peers, is approximately one standard deviation below average. Detailed neuropsychological testing has demonstrated that boys with DMD have a global developmental impairment, with verbal memory and visuospatial skills most significantly affected. Furthermore, the total brain volume and gray matter volume are lower in children with DMD compared to age-matched controls. These results are suggestive of a significant structural and functional compromise to the developing brain as a result of absent dystrophin protein expression. There is also some genetic evidence to suggest that mutations in the 3’ end of the DMD gene are associated with more severe neurocognitive problems. Our working hypothesis is that (i) boys with DMD do not make gains in neurodevelopmental skills compared to typically developing children and (ii) women carriers of DMD mutations may have subclinical cognitive deficits. We also hypothesize that there may be an intergenerational vulnerability of cognition, with boys of DMD-carrier mothers being more affected cognitively than boys of non-DMD-carrier mothers. The objectives of this study are: 1. Assess the neurodevelopment in boys with DMD at 4-time points and perform baseline neuroradiological assessment, 2. Assess cognition in biological mothers of DMD participants at baseline, 3. Assess possible correlation between DMD mutation and cognitive measures. This study also explores functional brain abnormalities in people with DMD by exploring how regional and global connectivity of the brain underlies executive function deficits in DMD. Such research can contribute to a better holistic understanding of the cognition alterations due to DMD and could potentially allow clinicians to create better-tailored treatment plans for the DMD population. There are four study visits for each participant (baseline, 2-4 weeks, 1 year, 18 months). At each visit, the participant completes the NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery, a validated psychometric measure that is recommended by NIH Common Data Elements for use in DMD. Visits 1, 3, and 4 also involve the administration of the BRIEF-2, ABAS-3, PROMIS/NeuroQoL, PedsQL Neuromuscular module 3.0, Draw a Clock Test, and an optional fMRI scan with the N-back matching task. We expect to enroll 52 children with DMD, 52 mothers of children with DMD, and 30 healthy control boys. This study began in 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to this, there were subsequent delays in recruitment because of travel restrictions. However, we have persevered and continued to recruit new participants for the study. We partnered with the Muscular Dystrophy Association (MDA) and helped advertise the study to interested families. Since then, we have had families from across the country contact us about their interest in the study. We plan to continue to enroll a diverse population of DMD participants to contribute toward a better understanding of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy.Keywords: neurology, Duchenne muscular dystrophy, muscular dystrophy, cognition, neurodevelopment, x-linked disorder, DMD, DMD gene
Procedia PDF Downloads 9977 Gamification of eHealth Business Cases to Enhance Rich Learning Experience
Authors: Kari Björn
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Introduction of games has expanded the application area of computer-aided learning tools to wide variety of age groups of learners. Serious games engage the learners into a real-world -type of simulation and potentially enrich the learning experience. Institutional background of a Bachelor’s level engineering program in Information and Communication Technology is introduced, with detailed focus on one of its majors, Health Technology. As part of a Customer Oriented Software Application thematic semester, one particular course of “eHealth Business and Solutions” is described and reflected in a gamified framework. Learning a consistent view into vast literature of business management, strategies, marketing and finance in a very limited time enforces selection of topics relevant to the industry. Health Technology is a novel and growing industry with a growing sector in consumer wearable devices and homecare applications. The business sector is attracting new entrepreneurs and impatient investor funds. From engineering education point of view the sector is driven by miniaturizing electronics, sensors and wireless applications. However, the market is highly consumer-driven and usability, safety and data integrity requirements are extremely high. When the same technology is used in analysis or treatment of patients, very strict regulatory measures are enforced. The paper introduces a course structure using gamification as a tool to learn the most essential in a new market: customer value proposition design, followed by a market entry game. Students analyze the existing market size and pricing structure of eHealth web-service market and enter the market as a steering group of their company, competing against the legacy players and with each other. The market is growing but has its rules of demand and supply balance. New products can be developed with an R&D-investment, and targeted to market with unique quality- and price-combinations. Product cost structure can be improved by investing to enhanced production capacity. Investments can be funded optionally by foreign capital. Students make management decisions and face the dynamics of the market competition in form of income statement and balance sheet after each decision cycle. The focus of the learning outcome is to understand customer value creation to be the source of cash flow. The benefit of gamification is to enrich the learning experience on structure and meaning of financial statements. The paper describes the gamification approach and discusses outcomes after two course implementations. Along the case description of learning challenges, some unexpected misconceptions are noted. Improvements of the game or the semi-gamified teaching pedagogy are discussed. The case description serves as an additional support to new game coordinator, as well as helps to improve the method. Overall, the gamified approach has helped to engage engineering student to business studies in an energizing way.Keywords: engineering education, integrated curriculum, learning experience, learning outcomes
Procedia PDF Downloads 24076 An Anthropological Insight into Farming Practices and Cultural Life of Farmers in Sarawan Village, District Faridkot, Punjab
Authors: Amandeep Kaur
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Farming is one of the most influential traditions which started around 10000 BC and has revolutionized human civilization. It is believed that farming originated at a separate location. Thus it has a great impact on local culture, which in turn gave rise to diversified farming practices. Farming activities are influenced by the culture of a particular region or community as local people have their own knowledge and belief system about soil and crops. With the inception of the Green Revolution, 'a high tech machinery model' in Punjab, various traditional farming methods and techniques changed. The present research concentrates on the local knowledge of farmers and local farming systems from an anthropological perspective. In view of the prevailing agrarian crisis in Punjab, this research is focused on farmer’s experiences and their perception regarding farming practices. Thus an attempt has to be made to focus on the local knowledge, perception, and experience of farmers for eco-friendly and sustainable agricultural development. Farmers voices are used to understand the relationship between farming practices and socio-cultural life of farmers in Faridkot district, Punjab. The research aims to comprehend the nature of changes taking place in the socio-cultural life of people with the development of capitalism and agricultural modernization. The study is based on qualitative methods of ethnography in Sarawan village of Faridkot District. Inferences drawn from in-depth case studies collected from 60 agricultural households lead to the concept of the process of diffusion, innovation, and adoption of farming technology, a variety of crops and the dissemination of agricultural skills regarding various cultural farming practices. The data is based on random sampling; the respondents were both males and females above the age of 18 years to attain a holistic understanding across the generations. A Quasi-participant observation related to lifestyle, the standard of living, and various farming practices performed by them were done. Narratives derived from the fieldwork depicts that farmers usually oppose the restrictions imposed by the government on certain farming practices, especially ban on stubble burning. This paper presents the narratives of farmers regarding the dissemination of awareness about the use of new varieties of seeds, technology, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. The study reveals that farming systems have developed in ways reflecting the activities and choices of farmers influenced by environmental, socio-cultural, economic, and political situations. Modern farming practices have forced small farmers into debt as farmers feel pride in buying new machinery. It has also led to the loss of work culture and excessive use of drugs among youngsters. Even laborers did not want to work on the land with cultivating farmers primarily for social and political reasons. Due to lack of proper marketing of crops, there is a continuum of the wheat-rice cycle instead of crop diversification in Punjab. Change in the farming system also affects the social structure of society. Agricultural modernization has commercialized the socio-cultural relations in Punjab and is slowly urbanizing the rural landscape revolutionizing the traditional social relations to capitalistic relations.Keywords: agricultural modernization, capitalism, farming practices, narratives
Procedia PDF Downloads 14775 The Impact of an Improved Strategic Partnership Programme on Organisational Performance and Growth of Firms in the Internet Protocol Television and Hybrid Fibre-Coaxial Broadband Industry
Authors: Collen T. Masilo, Brane Semolic, Pieter Steyn
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The Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) and Hybrid Fibre-Coaxial (HFC) Broadband industrial sector landscape are rapidly changing and organisations within the industry need to stay competitive by exploring new business models so that they can be able to offer new services and products to customers. The business challenge in this industrial sector is meeting or exceeding high customer expectations across multiple content delivery modes. The increasing challenges in the IPTV and HFC broadband industrial sector encourage service providers to form strategic partnerships with key suppliers, marketing partners, advertisers, and technology partners. The need to form enterprise collaborative networks poses a challenge for any organisation in this sector, in selecting the right strategic partners who will ensure that the organisation’s services and products are marketed in new markets. Partners who will ensure that customers are efficiently supported by meeting and exceeding their expectations. Lastly, selecting cooperation partners who will represent the organisation in a positive manner, and contribute to improving the performance of the organisation. Companies in the IPTV and HFC broadband industrial sector tend to form informal partnerships with suppliers, vendors, system integrators and technology partners. Generally, partnerships are formed without thorough analysis of the real reason a company is forming collaborations, without proper evaluations of prospective partners using specific selection criteria, and with ineffective performance monitoring of partners to ensure that a firm gains real long term benefits from its partners and gains competitive advantage. Similar tendencies are illustrated in the research case study and are based on Skyline Communications, a global leader in end-to-end, multi-vendor network management and operational support systems (OSS) solutions. The organisation’s flagship product is the DataMiner network management platform used by many operators across multiple industries and can be referred to as a smart system that intelligently manages complex technology ecosystems for its customers in the IPTV and HFC broadband industry. The approach of the research is to develop the most efficient business model that can be deployed to improve a strategic partnership programme in order to significantly improve the performance and growth of organisations participating in a collaborative network in the IPTV and HFC broadband industrial sector. This involves proposing and implementing a new strategic partnership model and its main features within the industry which should bring about significant benefits for all involved companies to achieve value add and an optimal growth strategy. The proposed business model has been developed based on the research of existing relationships, value chains and business requirements in this industrial sector and validated in 'Skyline Communications'. The outputs of the business model have been demonstrated and evaluated in the research business case study the IPTV and HFC broadband service provider 'Skyline Communications'.Keywords: growth, partnership, selection criteria, value chain
Procedia PDF Downloads 13374 Managing Inter-Organizational Innovation Project: Systematic Review of Literature
Authors: Lamin B Ceesay, Cecilia Rossignoli
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Inter-organizational collaboration is a growing phenomenon in both research and practice. The partnership between organizations enables firms to leverage external resources, experiences, and technology that lie with other firms. This collaborative practice is a source of improved business model performance, technological advancement, and increased competitive advantage for firms. However, the competitive intents, and even diverse institutional logics of firms, make inter-firm innovation-based partnership even more complex, and its governance more challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a systematic review of research linking the inter-organizational relationship of firms with their innovation practice and specify the different project management issues and gaps addressed in previous research. To do this, we employed a systematic review of the literature on inter-organizational innovation using two complementary scholarly databases - ScienceDirect and Web of Science (WoS). Article scoping relies on the combination of keywords based on similar terms used in the literature:(1) inter-organizational relationship, (2) business network, (3) inter-firm project, and (4) innovation network. These searches were conducted in the title, abstract, and keywords of conceptual and empirical research papers done in English. Our search covers between 2010 to 2019. We applied several exclusion criteria including Papers published outside the years under the review, papers in a language other than English, papers neither listed in WoS nor ScienceDirect and papers that are not sharply related to the inter-organizational innovation-based partnership were removed. After all relevant search criteria were applied, a final list of 84 papers constitutes the data for this review. Our review revealed an increasing evolution of inter-organizational relationship research during the period under the review. The descriptive analysis of papers according to Journal outlets finds that International Journal of Project Management (IJPM), Journal of Industrial Marketing, Journal of Business Research (JBR), etc. are the leading journal outlets for research in the inter-organizational innovation project. The review also finds that Qualitative methods and quantitative approaches respectively are the leading research methods adopted by scholars in the field. However, literature review and conceptual papers constitute the least in the field. During the content analysis of the selected papers, we read the content of each paper and found that the selected papers try to address one of the three phenomena in inter-organizational innovation research: (1) project antecedents; (2) project management and (3) project performance outcomes. We found that these categories are not mutually exclusive, but rather interdependent. This categorization also helped us to organize the fragmented literature in the field. While a significant percentage of the literature discussed project management issues, we found fewer extant literature on project antecedents and performance. As a result of this, we organized the future research agenda addressed in several papers by linking them with the under-researched themes in the field, thus providing great potential to advance future research agenda especially, in the under-researched themes in the field. Finally, our paper reveals that research on inter-organizational innovation project is generally fragmented which hinders a better understanding of the field. Thus, this paper contributes to the understanding of the field by organizing and discussing the extant literature to advance the theory and application of inter-organizational relationship.Keywords: inter-organizational relationship, inter-firm collaboration, innovation projects, project management, systematic review
Procedia PDF Downloads 11473 The Socio-Economic Impact of the English Leather Glove Industry from the 17th Century to Its Recent Decline
Authors: Frances Turner
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Gloves are significant physical objects, being one of the oldest forms of dress. Glove culture is part of every facet of life; its extraordinary history encompasses practicality, and symbolism reflecting a wide range of social practices. The survival of not only the gloves but associated articles enables the possibility to analyse real lives, however so far this area has been largely neglected. Limited information is available to students, researchers, or those involved with the design and making of gloves. There are several museums and independent collectors in England that hold collections of gloves (some from as early as 16th century), machinery, tools, designs and patterns, marketing materials and significant archives which demonstrate the rich heritage of English glove design and manufacturing, being of national significance and worthy of international interest. Through a research glove network which now exists thanks to research grant funding, there is potential for the holders of glove collections to make connections and explore links between these resources to promote a stronger understanding of the significance, breadth and heritage of the English glove industry. The network takes an interdisciplinary approach to bring together interested parties from academia, museums and manufacturing, with expert knowledge of the production, collections, conservation and display of English leather gloves. Academics from diverse arts and humanities disciplines benefit from the opportunities to share research and discuss ideas with network members from non-academic contexts including museums and heritage organisations, industry, and contemporary designers. The fragmented collections when considered in entirety provide an overview of English glove making since earliest times and those who wore them. This paper makes connections and explores links between these resources to promote a stronger understanding of the significance, breadth and heritage of the English Glove industry. The following areas are explored: current content and status of the individual museum collections, potential links, sharing of information histories, social and cultural and relationship to history of fashion design, manufacturing and materials, approaches to maintenance and conservation, access to the collections and strategies for future understanding of their national significance. The facilitation of knowledge exchange and exploration of the collections through the network informs organisations’ future strategies for the maintenance, access and conservation of their collections. By involving industry in the network, it is possible to ensure a contemporary perspective on glove-making in addition to the input from heritage partners. The slow fashion movement and awareness of artisan craft and how these can be preserved and adopted for glove and accessory design is addressed. Artisan leather glove making was a skilled and significant industry in England that has now declined to the point where there is little production remaining utilising the specialist skills that have hardly changed since earliest times. This heritage will be identified and preserved for future generations of the rich cultural history of gloves may be lost.Keywords: artisan glove-making skills, English leather gloves, glove culture, the glove network
Procedia PDF Downloads 12972 Facilitating the Learning Environment as a Servant Leader: Empowering Self-Directed Student Learning
Authors: Thomas James Bell III
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Pedagogy is thought of as one's philosophy, theory, or teaching method. This study examines the science of learning, considering the forced reconsideration of effective pedagogy brought on by the aftermath of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. With the aid of various technologies, online education holds challenges and promises to enhance the learning environment if implemented to facilitate student learning. Behaviorism centers around the belief that the instructor is the sage on the classroom stage using repetition techniques as the primary learning instrument. This approach to pedagogy ascribes complete control of the learning environment and works best for students to learn by allowing students to answer questions with immediate feedback. Such structured learning reinforcement tends to guide students' learning without considering learners' independence and individual reasoning. And such activities may inadvertently stifle the student's ability to develop critical thinking and self-expression skills. Fundamentally liberationism pedagogy dismisses the concept that education is merely about students learning things and more about the way students learn. Alternatively, the liberationist approach democratizes the classroom by redefining the role of the teacher and student. The teacher is no longer viewed as the sage on the stage but as a guide on the side. Instead, this approach views students as creators of knowledge and not empty vessels to be filled with knowledge. Moreover, students are well suited to decide how best to learn and which areas improvements are needed. This study will explore the classroom instructor as a servant leader in the twenty-first century, which allows students to integrate technology that encapsulates more individual learning styles. The researcher will examine the Professional Scrum Master (PSM I) exam pass rate results of 124 students in six sections of an Agile scrum course. The students will be separated into two groups; the first group will follow a structured instructor-led course outlined by a course syllabus. The second group will consist of several small teams (ten or fewer) of self-led and self-empowered students. The teams will conduct several event meetings that include sprint planning meetings, daily scrums, sprint reviews, and retrospective meetings throughout the semester will the instructor facilitating the teams' activities as needed. The methodology for this study will use the compare means t-test to compare the mean of an exam pass rate in one group to the mean of the second group. A one-tailed test (i.e., less than or greater than) will be used with the null hypothesis, for the difference between the groups in the population will be set to zero. The major findings will expand the pedagogical approach that suggests pedagogy primarily exist in support of teacher-led learning, which has formed the pillars of traditional classroom teaching. But in light of the fourth industrial revolution, there is a fusion of learning platforms across the digital, physical, and biological worlds with disruptive technological advancements in areas such as the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), 3D printing, robotics, and others.Keywords: pedagogy, behaviorism, liberationism, flipping the classroom, servant leader instructor, agile scrum in education
Procedia PDF Downloads 14271 Wheat Cluster Farming Approach: Challenges and Prospects for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia
Authors: Hanna Mamo Ergando
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Climate change is already having a severe influence on agriculture, affecting crop yields, the nutritional content of main grains, and livestock productivity. Significant adaptation investments will be necessary to sustain existing yields and enhance production and food quality to fulfill demand. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) provides numerous potentials in this regard, combining a focus on enhancing agricultural output and incomes while also strengthening resilience and responding to climate change. To improve agriculture production and productivity, the Ethiopian government has adopted and implemented a series of strategies, including the recent agricultural cluster farming that is practiced as an effort to change, improve, and transform subsistence farming to modern, productive, market-oriented, and climate-smart approach through farmers production cluster. Besides, greater attention and focus have been given to wheat production and productivity by the government, and wheat is the major crop grown in cluster farming. Therefore, the objective of this assessment was to examine various opportunities and challenges farmers face in a cluster farming system. A qualitative research approach was used to generate primary and secondary data. Respondents were chosen using the purposeful sampling technique. Accordingly, experts from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute, the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute, and the Ethiopian Environment Protection Authority were interviewed. The assessment result revealed that farming in clusters is an economically viable technique for sustaining small, resource-limited, and socially disadvantaged farmers' agricultural businesses. The method assists farmers in consolidating their products and delivering them in bulk to save on transportation costs while increasing income. Smallholders' negotiating power has improved as a result of cluster membership, as has knowledge and information spillover. The key challenges, on the other hand, were identified as a lack of timely provision of modern inputs, insufficient access to credit services, conflict of interest in crop selection, and a lack of output market for agro-processing firms. Furthermore, farmers in the cluster farming approach grow wheat year after year without crop rotation or diversification techniques. Mono-cropping has disadvantages because it raises the likelihood of disease and insect outbreaks. This practice may result in long-term consequences, including soil degradation, reduced biodiversity, and economic risk for farmers. Therefore, the government must devote more resources to addressing the issue of environmental sustainability. Farmers' access to complementary services that promote production and marketing efficiencies through infrastructure and institutional services has to be improved. In general, the assessment begins with some hint that leads to a deeper study into the efficiency of the strategy implementation, upholding existing policy, and scaling up good practices in a sustainable and environmentally viable manner.Keywords: cluster farming, smallholder farmers, wheat, challenges, opportunities
Procedia PDF Downloads 22070 The Mediating Effects of Student Satisfaction on the Relationship Between Organisational Image, Service Quality and Students’ Loyalty in Higher Education Institutions in Kano State, Nigeria
Authors: Ado Ismail Sabo
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Statement of the Problem: The global trend in tertiary education institutions today is changing and moving towards engagement, promotion and marketing. The reason is to upscale reputation and impact positioning. More prominently, existing rivalry today seeks to draw-in the best and brightest students. A university or college is no longer just an institution of higher learning, but one adapting additional business nomenclature. Therefore, huge financial resources are invested by educational institutions to polish their image and improve their global and national ranking. In Nigeria, which boasts of a vast population of over 180 million people, some of whose patronage can bolster its education sector; standard of education continues to decline. Today, some Nigerian tertiary education institutions are shadows of their pasts, in terms of academic excellence. Quality has been relinquished because of the unquenchable quest by government officials, some civil servants, school heads and educators to amass wealth. It is very difficult to gain student satisfaction and their loyalty. Some of the student’s loyalties factor towards public higher educational institutions might be confusing. It is difficult to understand the extent to which students are satisfy on many needs. Some students might feel satisfy with the academic lecturers only, whereas others may want everything, and others will never satisfy. Due to these problems, this research aims to uncover the crucial factors influencing student loyalty and to examine if students’ satisfaction might impact mediate the relationship between service quality, organisational image and students’ loyalty towards public higher education institutions in Kano State, Nigeria. The significance of the current study is underscored by the paucity of similar research in the subject area and public tertiary education in a developing country like Nigeria as shown in existing literature. Methodology: The current study was undertaken by quantitative research methodology. Sample of 600 valid responses were obtained within the study population comprising six selected public higher education institutions in Kano State, Nigeria. These include: North West University Kano, Bayero University Kano, School of Management Studies Kano, School of Technology Kano, Sa’adatu Rimi College Kano and Federal College of Education (FCE) Kano. Four main hypotheses were formulated and tested using structural equation modeling techniques with Analysis of Moment Structure (AMOS Version 22.0). Results: Analysis of the data provided support for the main issue of this study, and the following findings are established: “Student Satisfaction mediates the relationship between Service Quality and Student Loyalty”, “Student Satisfaction mediates the relationship between Organizational Image and Student Loyalty” respectively. The findings of this study contributed to the theoretical implication which proposed a structural model that examined the relationships among overall Organizational image, service quality, student satisfaction and student loyalty. Conclusion: In addition, the findings offered a better insight to the managerial (higher institution of learning service providers) by focusing on portraying the image of service quality with student satisfaction in improving the quality of student loyalty.Keywords: student loyalty, service quality, student satisfaction, organizational image
Procedia PDF Downloads 6969 Global Winners versus Local Losers: Globalization Identity and Tradition in Spanish Club Football
Authors: Jim O'brien
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Contemporary global representation and consumption of La Liga across a plethora of media platform outlets has resulted in significant implications for the historical, political and cultural developments which shaped the development of Spanish club football. This has established and reinforced a hierarchy of a small number of teams belonging to or aspiring to belong to a cluster of global elite clubs seeking to imitate the blueprint of the English Premier League in respect of corporate branding and marketing in order to secure a global fan base through success and exposure in La Liga itself and through the Champions League. The synthesis between globalization, global sport and the status of high profile clubs has created radical change within the folkloric iconography of Spanish football. The main focus of this paper is to critically evaluate the consequences of globalization on the rich tapestry at the core of the game’s distinctive history in Spain. The seminal debate underpinning the study considers whether the divergent aspects of globalization have acted as a malevolent force, eroding tradition, causing financial meltdown and reducing much of the fabric of club football to the status of by standers, or have promoted a renaissance of these traditions, securing their legacies through new fans and audiences. The study draws on extensive sources on the history, politics and culture of Spanish football, in both English and Spanish. It also uses primary and archive material derived from interviews and fieldwork undertaken with scholars, media professionals and club representatives in Spain. The paper has four main themes. Firstly, it contextualizes the key historical, political and cultural forces which shaped the landscape of Spanish football from the late nineteenth century. The seminal notions of region, locality and cultural divergence are pivotal to this discourse. The study then considers the relationship between football, ethnicity and identity as a barometer of continuity and change, suggesting that tradition is being reinvented and re-framed to reflect the shifting demographic and societal patterns within the Spanish state. Following on from this, consideration is given to the paradoxical function of ‘El Clasico’ and the dominant duopoly of the FC Barcelona – Real Madrid axis in both eroding tradition in the global nexus of football’s commodification and in protecting historic political rivalries. To most global consumers of La Liga, the mega- spectacle and hyperbole of ‘El Clasico’ is the essence of Spanish football, with cultural misrepresentation and distortion catapulting the event to the global media audience. Finally, the paper examines La Liga as a sporting phenomenon in which elite clubs, cult managers and galacticos serve as commodities on the altar of mass consumption in football’s global entertainment matrix. These processes accentuate a homogenous mosaic of cultural conformity which obscures local, regional and national identities and paradoxically fuses the global with the local to maintain the distinctive hue of La Liga, as witnessed by the extraordinary successes of Athletico Madrid and FC Eibar in recent seasons.Keywords: Spanish football, globalization, cultural identity, tradition, folklore
Procedia PDF Downloads 30168 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets
Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme
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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov
Procedia PDF Downloads 21767 Sustainable Crop Production: Greenhouse Gas Management in Farm Value Chain
Authors: Aswathaman Vijayan, Manish Jha, Ullas Theertha
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Climate change and Global warming have become an issue for both developed and developing countries and perhaps the biggest threat to the environment. We at ITC Limited believe that a company’s performance must be measured by its Triple Bottom Line contribution to building economic, social and environmental capital. This Triple Bottom Line strategy focuses on - Embedding sustainability in business practices, Investing in social development and Adopting a low carbon growth path with a cleaner environment approach. The Agri Business Division - ILTD operates in the tobacco crop growing regions of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka province of India. The Agri value chain of the company comprises of two distinct phases: First phase is Agricultural operations undertaken by ITC trained farmers and the second phase is Industrial operations which include marketing and processing of the agricultural produce. This research work covers the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) management strategy of ITC in the Agricultural operations undertaken by the farmers. The agriculture sector adds considerably to global GHG emissions through the use of carbon-based energies, use of fertilizers and other farming operations such as ploughing. In order to minimize the impact of farming operations on the environment, ITC has a taken a big leap in implementing system and process in reducing the GHG impact in farm value chain by partnering with the farming community. The company has undertaken a unique three-pronged approach for GHG management at the farm value chain: 1) GHG inventory at farm value chain: Different sources of GHG emission in the farm value chain were identified and quantified for the baseline year, as per the IPCC guidelines for greenhouse gas inventories. The major sources of emission identified are - emission due to nitrogenous fertilizer application during seedling production and main-field; emission due to diesel usage for farm machinery; emission due to fuel consumption and due to burning of crop residues. 2) Identification and implementation of technologies to reduce GHG emission: Various methodologies and technologies were identified for each GHG emission source and implemented at farm level. The identified methodologies are – reducing the consumption of chemical fertilizer usage at the farm through site-specific nutrient recommendation; Usage of sharp shovel for land preparation to reduce diesel consumption; implementation of energy conservation technologies to reduce fuel requirement and avoiding burning of crop residue by incorporation in the main field. These identified methodologies were implemented at farm level, and the GHG emission was quantified to understand the reduction in GHG emission. 3) Social and farm forestry for CO2 sequestration: In addition, the company encouraged social and farm forestry in the waste lands to convert it into green cover. The plantations are carried out with fast growing trees viz., Eucalyptus, Casuarina, and Subabul at the rate of 10,000 Ha of land per year. The above approach minimized considerable amount of GHG emission at the farm value chain benefiting farmers, community, and environment at a whole. In addition, the CO₂ stock created by social and farm forestry program has made the farm value chain to become environment-friendly.Keywords: CO₂ sequestration, farm value chain, greenhouse gas, ITC limited
Procedia PDF Downloads 29566 Comparison of the Effect of Heart Rate Variability Biofeedback and Slow Breathing Training on Promoting Autonomic Nervous Function Related Performance
Authors: Yi Jen Wang, Yu Ju Chen
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Background: Heart rate variability (HRV) biofeedback can promote autonomic nervous function, sleep quality and reduce psychological stress. In HRV biofeedback training, it is hoped that through the guidance of machine video or audio, the patient can breathe slowly according to his own heart rate changes so that the heart and lungs can achieve resonance, thereby promoting the related effects of autonomic nerve function; while, it is also pointed out that if slow breathing of 6 times per minute can also guide the case to achieve the effect of cardiopulmonary resonance. However, there is no relevant research to explore the comparison of the effectiveness of cardiopulmonary resonance by using video or audio HRV biofeedback training and metronome-guided slow breathing. Purpose: To compare the promotion of autonomic nervous function performance between using HRV biofeedback and slow breathing guided by a metronome. Method: This research is a kind of experimental design with convenient sampling; the cases are randomly divided into the heart rate variability biofeedback training group and the slow breathing training group. The HRV biofeedback training group will conduct HRV biofeedback training in a four-week laboratory and use the home training device for autonomous training; while the slow breathing training group will conduct slow breathing training in the four-week laboratory using the mobile phone APP breathing metronome to guide the slow breathing training, and use the mobile phone APP for autonomous training at home. After two groups were enrolled and four weeks after the intervention, the autonomic nervous function-related performance was repeatedly measured. Using the chi-square test, student’s t-test and other statistical methods to analyze the results, and use p <0.05 as the basis for statistical significance. Results: A total of 27 subjects were included in the analysis. After four weeks of training, the HRV biofeedback training group showed significant improvement in the HRV indexes (SDNN, RMSSD, HF, TP) and sleep quality. Although the stress index also decreased, it did not reach statistical significance; the slow breathing training group was not statistically significant after four weeks of training, only sleep quality improved significantly, while the HRV indexes (SDNN, RMSSD, TP) all increased. Although HF and stress indexes decreased, they were not statistically significant. Comparing the difference between the two groups after training, it was found that the HF index improved significantly and reached statistical significance in the HRV biofeedback training group. Although the sleep quality of the two groups improved, it did not reach that level in a statistically significant difference. Conclusion: HRV biofeedback training is more effective in promoting autonomic nervous function than slow breathing training, but the effects of reducing stress and promoting sleep quality need to be explored after increasing the number of samples. The results of this study can provide a reference for clinical or community health promotion. In the future, it can also be further designed to integrate heart rate variability biological feedback training into the development of AI artificial intelligence wearable devices, which can make it more convenient for people to train independently and get effective feedback in time.Keywords: autonomic nervous function, HRV biofeedback, heart rate variability, slow breathing
Procedia PDF Downloads 17665 Exploring the Ethics and Impact of Slum Tourism in Kenya: A Critical Examination on the Ethical Implications, Legalities and Beneficiaries of This Trade and Long-Term Implications to the Slum Communities
Authors: Joanne Ndirangu
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Delving into the intricate landscape of slum tourism in Kenya, this study critically evaluates its ethical implications, legal frameworks, and beneficiaries. By examining the complex interplay between tourism operators, visitors, and slum residents, it seeks to uncover the long-term consequences for the communities involved. Through an exploration of ethical considerations, legal parameters, and the distribution of benefits, this examination aims to shed light on the broader socio-economic impacts of slum tourism in Kenya, particularly on the lives of those residing in these marginalized communities. Assessing the ethical considerations surrounding slum tourism in Kenya, including the potential exploitation of residents and cultural sensitivities and examine the legal frameworks governing slum tourism in Kenya and evaluate their effectiveness in protecting the rights and well-being of slum dwellers. Identifying the primary beneficiaries of slum tourism in Kenya, including tour operators, local businesses, and residents, and analysing the distribution of economic benefits. Exploring the long-term socio-economic impacts of slum tourism on the lives of residents, including changes in living conditions, access to resources, and community development. Understanding the motivations and perceptions of tourists participating in slum tourism in Kenya and assess their role in shaping the industry's dynamics and investigate the potential for sustainable and responsible forms of slum tourism that prioritize community empowerment, cultural exchange, and mutual respect. Providing recommendations for policymakers, tourism stakeholders, and community organizations to promote ethical and sustainable practices in slum tourism in Kenya. The main contributions of researching slum tourism in Kenya would include; Ethical Awareness: By critically examining the ethical implications of slum tourism, the research can raise awareness among tourists, operators, and policymakers about the potential exploitation of marginalized communities. Beneficiary Analysis: By identifying the primary beneficiaries of slum tourism, the research can inform discussions on fair distribution of economic benefits and potential strategies for ensuring that local communities derive meaningful advantages from tourism activities. Socio-Economic Understanding: By exploring the long-term socio-economic impacts of slum tourism, the research can deepen understanding of how tourism activities affect the lives of slum residents, potentially informing policies and initiatives aimed at improving living conditions and promoting community development. Tourist Perspectives: Understanding the motivations and perceptions of tourists participating in slum tourism can provide valuable insights into consumer behaviour and preferences, informing the development of responsible tourism practices and marketing strategies. Promotion of Responsible Tourism: By providing recommendations for promoting ethical and sustainable practices in slum tourism, the research can contribute to the development of guidelines and initiatives aimed at fostering responsible tourism and minimizing negative impacts on host communities. Overall, the research can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of slum tourism in Kenya and its broader implications, while also offering practical recommendations for promoting ethical and sustainable tourism practices.Keywords: slum tourism, dark tourism, ethical tourism, responsible tourism
Procedia PDF Downloads 6964 The Effects of Branding on Profitability of Banks in Ghana
Authors: Evans Oteng, Clement Yeboah, Alexander Otechere-Fianko
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In today’s economy, despite achievements and advances in the banking and financial institutions, there are challenges that will require intensive attempts on the portion of the banks in Ghana. The perceived decline in profitability of banks seems to have emanated from ineffective branding. Hence, the purpose of this quantitative descriptive-correlational study was to examine the effects of branding on the profitability of banks in Ghana. The researchers purposively sampled some 116 banks in Ghana. Self-developed Likert scale questionnaires were administered to the finance officers of the financial institutions. The results were found to be statistically significant, F (1, 114) = 4. 50, p = .036. This indicates that those banks in Ghana with good branding practices have strong marketing tools to identify and sell their products and services and, as such, have a big market share. The correlation coefficients indicate that branding has a positive correlation with profitability and are statistically significant (r=.207, p<0.05), which signifies that as branding increases, the return on equity’s profitability indicator improves and vice versa. Future researchers can consider other factors beyond branding, such as online banking. The study has significant implications for the success and competitive advantage of those banks that effective branding allows them to differentiate themselves from their competitors. A strong and unique brand identity can help a bank stand out in a crowded market, attract customers, and build customer loyalty. This can lead to increased market share and profitability. Branding influences customer perception and trust. A well-established and reputable brand can create a positive image in the minds of customers, enhancing their confidence in the bank's products and services. This can result in increased customer acquisition, customer retention and a positive impact on profitability. Banks with strong brands can leverage their reputation and customer trust to cross-sell additional products and services. When customers have confidence in the brand, they are more likely to explore and purchase other offerings from the same institution. Cross-selling can boost revenue streams and profitability. Successful branding can open up opportunities for brand extensions and diversification into new products or markets. Banks can leverage their trusted brand to introduce new financial products or expand their presence into related areas, such as insurance or investment services. This can lead to additional revenue streams and improved profitability. This study can have implications for education. Thus, increased profitability of banks due to effective branding can result in higher financial resources available for corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. Banks may invest in educational initiatives, such as scholarships, grants, research projects, and sponsorships, to support the education sector in Ghana. Also, this study can have implications for logistics and supply chain management. Thus, strong branding can create trust and credibility among customers, leading to increased customer loyalty. This loyalty can positively impact the bank's relationships with its suppliers and logistics partners. It can result in better negotiation power, improved supplier relationships, and enhanced supply chain coordination, ultimately leading to more efficient and cost-effective logistics operations.Keywords: branding, profitability, competitors, customer loyalty, customer retention, corporate social responsibility, cost-effective, logistics operations
Procedia PDF Downloads 7763 The Role of Metaheuristic Approaches in Engineering Problems
Authors: Ferzat Anka
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Many types of problems can be solved using traditional analytical methods. However, these methods take a long time and cause inefficient use of resources. In particular, different approaches may be required in solving complex and global engineering problems that we frequently encounter in real life. The bigger and more complex a problem, the harder it is to solve. Such problems are called Nondeterministic Polynomial time (NP-hard) in the literature. The main reasons for recommending different metaheuristic algorithms for various problems are the use of simple concepts, the use of simple mathematical equations and structures, the use of non-derivative mechanisms, the avoidance of local optima, and their fast convergence. They are also flexible, as they can be applied to different problems without very specific modifications. Thanks to these features, it can be easily embedded even in many hardware devices. Accordingly, this approach can also be used in trend application areas such as IoT, big data, and parallel structures. Indeed, the metaheuristic approaches are algorithms that return near-optimal results for solving large-scale optimization problems. This study is focused on the new metaheuristic method that has been merged with the chaotic approach. It is based on the chaos theorem and helps relevant algorithms to improve the diversity of the population and fast convergence. This approach is based on Chimp Optimization Algorithm (ChOA), that is a recently introduced metaheuristic algorithm inspired by nature. This algorithm identified four types of chimpanzee groups: attacker, barrier, chaser, and driver, and proposed a suitable mathematical model for them based on the various intelligence and sexual motivations of chimpanzees. However, this algorithm is not more successful in the convergence rate and escaping of the local optimum trap in solving high-dimensional problems. Although it and some of its variants use some strategies to overcome these problems, it is observed that it is not sufficient. Therefore, in this study, a newly expanded variant is described. In the algorithm called Ex-ChOA, hybrid models are proposed for position updates of search agents, and a dynamic switching mechanism is provided for transition phases. This flexible structure solves the slow convergence problem of ChOA and improves its accuracy in multidimensional problems. Therefore, it tries to achieve success in solving global, complex, and constrained problems. The main contribution of this study is 1) It improves the accuracy and solves the slow convergence problem of the ChOA. 2) It proposes new hybrid movement strategy models for position updates of search agents. 3) It provides success in solving global, complex, and constrained problems. 4) It provides a dynamic switching mechanism between phases. The performance of the Ex-ChOA algorithm is analyzed on a total of 8 benchmark functions, as well as a total of 2 classical and constrained engineering problems. The proposed algorithm is compared with the ChoA, and several well-known variants (Weighted-ChoA, Enhanced-ChoA) are used. In addition, an Improved algorithm from the Grey Wolf Optimizer (I-GWO) method is chosen for comparison since the working model is similar. The obtained results depict that the proposed algorithm performs better or equivalently to the compared algorithms.Keywords: optimization, metaheuristic, chimp optimization algorithm, engineering constrained problems
Procedia PDF Downloads 7762 Urban Sprawl: A Case Study of Suryapet Town in Nalgonda District of Telangana State, a Geoinformatic Approach
Authors: Ashok Kumar Lonavath, V. Sathish Kumar
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Urban sprawl is the uncontrolled and uncoordinated outgrowth of towns and cities. The process of urban sprawl can be described by change in pattern over time, like proportional increase in built-up surface to population leading to rapid urban spatial expansion. Significant economic and livelihood opportunities in the urban areas results in lack of basic amenities due to the unplanned growth The patterns, processes, dynamic causes and consequences of sprawl can be explored and designed with the help of spatial planning support system. In India context the urban area is defined as the population more than 5000, density more than 400 persons per sq. km and 75% of the population is involved in non-agricultural occupations. India’s urban population is increasing at the rate of 2.35% pa. The class I town’s population of India according to 2011 census is 18.8% that accounts for 60.4% of total unban population. Similarly in Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh it is 22.9% which accounts for 68.8% of total urban population. Suryapet town has historical recognition as ‘Gate Way of Telangana’ in the Indian State of Andhra Pradesh. The Municipality was constituted in 1952 as Grade-III, later upgraded into Grade-II in 1984 and to Grade-I in 1998. The area is 35 Sq.kms. Three major tanks located in three different directions and Musi River is flowing from a distance of 8 kms. The average ground water table is about 50m below ground. It is a fast growing town with a population of 1, 06,805 and 25,448 households. Density is 3051pp sq km, It is a Class I city as per population census. It secured the ISO 14001-2004 certificate for establishing and maintaining an environment-friendly system for solid waste disposal. It is the first municipality in the country to receive such a certificate. It won HUDCO award under environment management, award of appreciation and cash from Ministry of Housing and Poverty Elevation from Government of India and undivided Andhra Pradesh under UN Human Settlement Programme, Greentech Excellance award, Supreme Courts appreciation for solid waste management. Foreign delegates from different countries and also from various other states of India visited Suryapet municipality for study tour and training programs as part of their official visit Suryapet is located at 17°5’ North Latitude and 79°37’ East Longitude. The average elevation is 266m, annual mean temperature is 36°C and average rainfall is 821.0 mm. The people of this town are engaged in Commercial and agriculture activities hence the town has become a centre for marketing and stocking agricultural produce. It is also educational centre in this region. The present paper on urban sprawl is a theoretical framework to analyze the interaction of planning and governance on the extent of outgrowth and level of services. The GIS techniques, SOI Toposheet, satellite imageries and image analysis techniques are extensively used to explore the sprawl and measure the urban land-use. This paper concludes outlining the challenges in addressing urban sprawl while ensuring adequate level of services that planning and governance have to ensure towards achieving sustainable urbanization.Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, urban sprawl, urbanization
Procedia PDF Downloads 22961 Construction Engineering and Cocoa Agriculture: A Synergistic Approach for Improved Livelihoods of Farmers
Authors: Felix Darko-Amoah, Daniel Acquah
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In contemporary ecosystems for developing countries like Ghana, the need to explore innovative solutions for sustainable livelihoods of farmers is more important than ever. With Ghana’s population growing steadily and the demand for food, fiber and shelter increasing, it is imperative that the construction industry and agriculture come together to address the challenges faced by farmers in the country. In order to enhance the livelihoods of cocoa farmers in Ghana, this paper provides an innovative strategy that aims to integrate the areas of civil engineering and cash crop agriculture. This study focuses on cocoa cultivation in poorer nations, where farmers confront a variety of difficulties include restricted access to financing, subpar infrastructure, and insufficient support services. We seek to improve farmers' access to financing, improve infrastructure, and provide support services that are essential to their success by combining the fields of building engineering and cocoa production. The findings of the study are beneficial to cocoa producers, community extension agents, and construction engineers. In order to accomplish our objectives, we conducted 307 of field investigations in particular cocoa growing communities in the Western Region of Ghana. Several studies have shown that there is a lack of adequate infrastructure and financing, leading to low yields, subpar beans, and low farmer profitability in developing nations like Ghana. Our goal is to give farmers access to better infrastructure, better financing, and support services that are crucial to their success through the fusion of construction engineering and cocoa production. Based on data gathered from the field investigations, the results show that the employment of appropriate technology and methods for developing structures, roads, and other infrastructure in rural regions is one of the essential components of this strategy. For instance, we find that using affordable, environmentally friendly materials like bamboo, rammed earth, and mud bricks can assist to cut expenditures while also protecting the environment. By applying simple relational techniques to the data gathered, the results also show that construction engineers are crucial in planning and building infrastructure that is appropriate for the local environment and circumstances and resilient to natural disasters like floods. Thus, the convergence of construction engineering and cash crop cultivation is another crucial component of the agriculture-construction interplay. For instance, farmers can receive financial assistance to buy essential inputs, such as seeds, fertilizer, and tools, as well as training in proper farming methods. Moreover, extension services can be offered to assist farmers in marketing their crops and enhancing their livelihoods and revenue. In conclusion, our analysis of responses from the 307 participants depicts that the combination of construction engineering and cash crop agriculture offers an innovative approach to improving farmers' livelihoods in cocoa farming communities in Ghana. In conclusion, by inculcating the findings of this study into core decision-making, policymakers can help farmers build sustainable and profitable livelihoods by addressing challenges such as limited access to financing, poor infrastructure, and inadequate support services.Keywords: cocoa agriculture, construction engineering, farm buildings and equipment, improved livelihoods of farmers
Procedia PDF Downloads 9060 Statistical Models and Time Series Forecasting on Crime Data in Nepal
Authors: Dila Ram Bhandari
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Throughout the 20th century, new governments were created where identities such as ethnic, religious, linguistic, caste, communal, tribal, and others played a part in the development of constitutions and the legal system of victim and criminal justice. Acute issues with extremism, poverty, environmental degradation, cybercrimes, human rights violations, crime against, and victimization of both individuals and groups have recently plagued South Asian nations. Everyday massive number of crimes are steadfast, these frequent crimes have made the lives of common citizens restless. Crimes are one of the major threats to society and also for civilization. Crime is a bone of contention that can create a societal disturbance. The old-style crime solving practices are unable to live up to the requirement of existing crime situations. Crime analysis is one of the most important activities of the majority of intelligent and law enforcement organizations all over the world. The South Asia region lacks such a regional coordination mechanism, unlike central Asia of Asia Pacific regions, to facilitate criminal intelligence sharing and operational coordination related to organized crime, including illicit drug trafficking and money laundering. There have been numerous conversations in recent years about using data mining technology to combat crime and terrorism. The Data Detective program from Sentient as a software company, uses data mining techniques to support the police (Sentient, 2017). The goals of this internship are to test out several predictive model solutions and choose the most effective and promising one. First, extensive literature reviews on data mining, crime analysis, and crime data mining were conducted. Sentient offered a 7-year archive of crime statistics that were daily aggregated to produce a univariate dataset. Moreover, a daily incidence type aggregation was performed to produce a multivariate dataset. Each solution's forecast period lasted seven days. Statistical models and neural network models were the two main groups into which the experiments were split. For the crime data, neural networks fared better than statistical models. This study gives a general review of the applied statistics and neural network models. A detailed image of each model's performance on the available data and generalizability is provided by a comparative analysis of all the models on a comparable dataset. Obviously, the studies demonstrated that, in comparison to other models, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) produced greater prediction. The crime records of 2005-2019 which was collected from Nepal Police headquarter and analysed by R programming. In conclusion, gated recurrent unit implementation could give benefit to police in predicting crime. Hence, time series analysis using GRU could be a prospective additional feature in Data Detective.Keywords: time series analysis, forecasting, ARIMA, machine learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 16459 Leveraging Advanced Technologies and Data to Eliminate Abandoned, Lost, or Otherwise Discarded Fishing Gear and Derelict Fishing Gear
Authors: Grant Bifolchi
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As global environmental problems continue to have highly adverse effects, finding long-term, sustainable solutions to combat ecological distress are of growing paramount concern. Ghost Gear—also known as abandoned, lost or otherwise discarded fishing gear (ALDFG) and derelict fishing gear (DFG)—represents one of the greatest threats to the world’s oceans, posing a significant hazard to human health, livelihoods, and global food security. In fact, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), abandoned, lost and discarded fishing gear represents approximately 10% of marine debris by volume. Around the world, many governments, governmental and non-profit organizations are doing their best to manage the reporting and retrieval of nets, lines, ropes, traps, floats and more from their respective bodies of water. However, these organizations’ ability to effectively manage files and documents about the environmental problem further complicates matters. In Ghost Gear monitoring and management, organizations face additional complexities. Whether it’s data ingest, industry regulations and standards, garnering actionable insights into the location, security, and management of data, or the application of enforcement due to disparate data—all of these factors are placing massive strains on organizations struggling to save the planet from the dangers of Ghost Gear. In this 90-minute educational session, globally recognized Ghost Gear technology expert Grant Bifolchi CET, BBA, Bcom, will provide real-world insight into how governments currently manage Ghost Gear and the technology that can accelerate success in combatting ALDFG and DFG. In this session, attendees will learn how to: • Identify specific technologies to solve the ingest and management of Ghost Gear data categories, including type, geo-location, size, ownership, regional assignment, collection and disposal. • Provide enhanced access to authorities, fisheries, independent fishing vessels, individuals, etc., while securely controlling confidential and privileged data to globally recognized standards. • Create and maintain processing accuracy to effectively track ALDFG/DFG reporting progress—including acknowledging receipt of the report and sharing it with all pertinent stakeholders to ensure approvals are secured. • Enable and utilize Business Intelligence (BI) and Analytics to store and analyze data to optimize organizational performance, maintain anytime-visibility of report status, user accountability, scheduling, management, and foster governmental transparency. • Maintain Compliance Reporting through highly defined, detailed and automated reports—enabling all stakeholders to share critical insights with internal colleagues, regulatory agencies, and national and international partners.Keywords: ghost gear, ALDFG, DFG, abandoned, lost or otherwise discarded fishing gear, data, technology
Procedia PDF Downloads 9758 Emotion and Risk Taking in a Casino Game
Authors: Yulia V. Krasavtseva, Tatiana V. Kornilova
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Risk-taking behaviors are not only dictated by cognitive components but also involve emotional aspects. Anticipatory emotions, involving both cognitive and affective mechanisms, are involved in decision-making in general, and risk-taking in particular. Affective reactions are prompted when an expectation or prediction is either validated or invalidated in the achieved result. This study aimed to combine predictions, anticipatory emotions, affective reactions, and personality traits in the context of risk-taking behaviors. An experimental online method Emotion and Prediction In a Casino (EPIC) was used, based on a casino-like roulette game. In a series of choices, the participant is presented with progressively riskier roulette combinations, where the potential sums of wins and losses increase with each choice and the participant is given a choice: to 'walk away' with the current sum of money or to 'play' the displayed roulette, thus accepting the implicit risk. Before and after the result is displayed, participants also rate their emotions, using the Self-Assessment Mannequin [Bradley, Lang, 1994], picking a picture, representing the intensity of pleasure, arousal, and dominance. The following personality measures were used: 1) Personal Decision-Making Factors [Kornilova, 2003] assessing risk and rationality; 2) I7 – Impulsivity Questionnaire [Kornilova, 1995] assessing impulsiveness, risk readiness, and empathy and 3) Subjective Risk Intelligence Scale [Craparo et al., 2018] assessing negative attitude toward uncertainty, emotional stress vulnerability, imaginative capability, and problem-solving self-efficacy. Two groups of participants took part in the study: 1) 98 university students (Mage=19.71, SD=3.25; 72% female) and 2) 94 online participants (Mage=28.25, SD=8.25; 89% female). Online participants were recruited via social media. Students with high rationality rated their pleasure and dominance before and after choices as lower (ρ from -2.6 to -2.7, p < 0.05). Those with high levels of impulsivity rated their arousal lower before finding out their result (ρ from 2.5 - 3.7, p < 0.05), while also rating their dominance as low (ρ from -3 to -3.7, p < 0.05). Students prone to risk-rated their pleasure and arousal before and after higher (ρ from 2.5 - 3.6, p < 0.05). High empathy was positively correlated with arousal after learning the result. High emotional stress vulnerability positively correlates with arousal and pleasure after the choice (ρ from 3.9 - 5.7, p < 0.05). Negative attitude to uncertainty is correlated with high anticipatory and reactive arousal (ρ from 2.7 - 5.7, p < 0.05). High imaginative capability correlates negatively with anticipatory and reactive dominance (ρ from - 3.4 to - 4.3, p < 0.05). Pleasure (.492), arousal (.590), and dominance (.551) before and after the result were positively correlated. Higher predictions positively correlated with reactive pleasure and arousal. In a riskier scenario (6/8 chances to win), anticipatory arousal was negatively correlated with the pleasure emotion (-.326) and vice versa (-.265). Correlations occur regardless of the roulette outcome. In conclusion, risk-taking behaviors are linked not only to personality traits but also to anticipatory emotions and affect in a modeled casino setting. Acknowledgment: The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project 19-29-07069.Keywords: anticipatory emotions, casino game, risk taking, impulsiveness
Procedia PDF Downloads 133