Search results for: adjusted network

Authors: Afnan Al-Romi, Iman Al-Momani

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The urge of applying the Software Engineering (SE) processes is both of vital importance and a key feature in critical, complex large-scale systems, for example, safety systems, security service systems, and network systems. Inevitably, associated with this are risks, such as system vulnerabilities and security threats. The probability of those risks increases in unsecured environments, such as wireless networks in general and in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) in particular. WSN is a self-organizing network of sensor nodes connected by wireless links. WSNs consist of hundreds to thousands of low-power, low-cost, multi-function sensor nodes that are small in size and communicate over short-ranges. The distribution of sensor nodes in an open environment that could be unattended in addition to the resource constraints in terms of processing, storage and power, make such networks in stringent limitations such as lifetime (i.e. period of operation) and security. The importance of WSN applications that could be found in many militaries and civilian aspects has drawn the attention of many researchers to consider its security. To address this important issue and overcome one of the main challenges of WSNs, security solution systems have been developed by researchers. Those solutions are software-based network Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs). However, it has been witnessed, that those developed IDSs are neither secure enough nor accurate to detect all malicious behaviours of attacks. Thus, the problem is the lack of coverage of all malicious behaviours in proposed IDSs, leading to unpleasant results, such as delays in the detection process, low detection accuracy, or even worse, leading to detection failure, as illustrated in the previous studies. Also, another problem is energy consumption in WSNs caused by IDS. So, in other words, not all requirements are implemented then traced. Moreover, neither all requirements are identified nor satisfied, as for some requirements have been compromised. The drawbacks in the current IDS are due to not following structured software development processes by researches and developers when developing IDS. Consequently, they resulted in inadequate requirement management, process, validation, and verification of requirements quality. Unfortunately, WSN and SE research communities have been mostly impermeable to each other. Integrating SE and WSNs is a real subject that will be expanded as technology evolves and spreads in industrial applications. Therefore, this paper will study the importance of Requirement Engineering when developing IDSs. Also, it will study a set of existed IDSs and illustrate the absence of Requirement Engineering and its effect. Then conclusions are drawn in regard of applying requirement engineering to systems to deliver the required functionalities, with respect to operational constraints, within an acceptable level of performance, accuracy and reliability.

Keywords: software engineering, requirement engineering, Intrusion Detection System, IDS, Wireless Sensor Networks, WSN

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Van-Thanh Ho, Jaiyoung Ryu

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In soft robotics, the optimization of fluid dynamics through pneumatic methods plays a pivotal role in enhancing operational efficiency and reducing energy loss. This is particularly crucial when replacing conventional techniques such as cable-driven electromechanical systems. The pneumatic model employed in this study represents a sophisticated framework designed to efficiently channel pressure from a high-pressure reservoir to various muscle locations on the robot's body. This intricate network involves a branching system of tubes. The study introduces a comprehensive pneumatic model, encompassing the components of a reservoir, tubes, and Pneumatically Actuated Muscles (PAM). The development of this model is rooted in the principles of shock tube theory. Notably, the study leverages experimental data to enhance the understanding of the interplay between the PAM structure and the surrounding fluid. This improved interactive approach involves the use of morphing motion, guided by a contraction function. The study's findings demonstrate a high degree of accuracy in predicting pressure distribution within the PAM. The model's predictive capabilities ensure that the error in comparison to experimental data remains below a threshold of 10%. Additionally, the research employs a machine learning model, specifically a surrogate model based on the Kriging method, to assess and quantify uncertainty factors related to the initial reservoir pressure and tube diameter. This comprehensive approach enhances our understanding of pneumatic soft robotics and its potential for improved operational efficiency.

Keywords: pneumatic artificial muscles, pressure drop, morhing motion, branched network, surrogate model

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: F. Ghazalnaz Sharifonnasabi, Iman Makhdoom

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Breast cancer is a serious health concern that affects many people around the world. According to a study published in the Breast journal, the global burden of breast cancer is expected to increase significantly over the next few decades. The number of deaths from breast cancer has been increasing over the years, but the age-standardized mortality rate has decreased in some countries. It’s important to be aware of the risk factors for breast cancer and to get regular check- ups to catch it early if it does occur. Machin learning techniques have been used to aid in the early detection and diagnosis of breast cancer. These techniques, that have been shown to be effective in predicting and diagnosing the disease, have become a research hotspot. In this study, we consider two deep learning approaches including: Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). We also considered the five-machine learning algorithm titled: Decision Tree (C4.5), Naïve Bayesian (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) Algorithm and XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) on the Breast Cancer Wisconsin Diagnostic dataset. We have carried out the process of evaluating and comparing classifiers involving selecting appropriate metrics to evaluate classifier performance and selecting an appropriate tool to quantify this performance. The main purpose of the study is predicting and diagnosis breast cancer, applying the mentioned algorithms and also discovering of the most effective with respect to confusion matrix, accuracy and precision. It is realized that CNN outperformed all other classifiers and achieved the highest accuracy (0.982456). The work is implemented in the Anaconda environment based on Python programing language.

Keywords: breast cancer, multi-layer perceptron, Naïve Bayesian, SVM, decision tree, convolutional neural network, XGBoost, KNN

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Authors: Muftah H. El-Naas, Ameera F. Mohammad, Mabruk I. Suleiman, Mohamed Al Musharfy, Ali H. Al-Marzouqi

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CO₂ capture and storage technologies play a significant role in contributing to the control of climate change through the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. The present study evaluates and optimizes CO₂ capture through a process, where carbon dioxide is passed into pH adjusted high salinity water and reacted with sodium chloride to form a precipitate of sodium bicarbonate. This process is based on a modified Solvay process with higher CO₂ capture efficiency, higher sodium removal, and higher pH level without the use of ammonia. The process was tested in a bubble column semi-batch reactor and was optimized using response surface methodology (RSM). CO₂ capture efficiency and sodium removal were optimized in terms of major operating parameters based on four levels and variables in Central Composite Design (CCD). The operating parameters were gas flow rate (0.5–1.5 L/min), reactor temperature (10 to 50 ^oC), buffer concentration (0.2-2.6%) and water salinity (25-197 g NaCl/L). The experimental data were fitted to a second-order polynomial using multiple regression and analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The optimum values of the selected variables were obtained using response optimizer. The optimum conditions were tested experimentally using desalination reject brine with salinity ranging from 65,000 to 75,000 mg/L. The CO₂ capture efficiency in 180 min was 99% and the maximum sodium removal was 35%. The experimental and predicted values were within 95% confidence interval, which demonstrates that the developed model can successfully predict the capture efficiency and sodium removal using the modified Solvay method.

Keywords: CO2 capture, water desalination, Response Surface Methodology, bubble column reactor

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: V. Saccà, A. Sarica, F. Novellino, S. Barone, T. Tallarico, E. Filippelli, A. Granata, P. Valentino, A. Quattrone

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The work aim was to evaluate how well Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms could support the early diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) from resting-state functional connectivity data. In particular, we wanted to explore the ability in distinguishing between controls and patients of mean signals extracted from ICA components corresponding to 15 well-known networks. Eighteen patients with early-MS (mean-age 37.42±8.11, 9 females) were recruited according to McDonald and Polman, and matched for demographic variables with 19 healthy controls (mean-age 37.55±14.76, 10 females). MRI was acquired by a 3T scanner with 8-channel head coil: (a)whole-brain T1-weighted; (b)conventional T2-weighted; (c)resting-state functional MRI (rsFMRI), 200 volumes. Estimated total lesion load (ml) and number of lesions were calculated using LST-toolbox from the corrected T1 and FLAIR. All rsFMRIs were pre-processed using tools from the FMRIB's Software Library as follows: (1) discarding of the first 5 volumes to remove T1 equilibrium effects, (2) skull-stripping of images, (3) motion and slice-time correction, (4) denoising with high-pass temporal filter (128s), (5) spatial smoothing with a Gaussian kernel of FWHM 8mm. No statistical significant differences (t-test, p < 0.05) were found between the two groups in the mean Euclidian distance and the mean Euler angle. WM and CSF signal together with 6 motion parameters were regressed out from the time series. We applied an independent component analysis (ICA) with the GIFT-toolbox using the Infomax approach with number of components=21. Fifteen mean components were visually identified by two experts. The resulting z-score maps were thresholded and binarized to extract the mean signal of the 15 networks for each subject. Statistical and machine learning analysis were then conducted on this dataset composed of 37 rows (subjects) and 15 features (mean signal in the network) with R language. The dataset was randomly splitted into training (75%) and test sets and two different classifiers were trained: RF and RBF-SVM. We used the intrinsic feature selection of RF, based on the Gini index, and recursive feature elimination (rfe) for the SVM, to obtain a rank of the most predictive variables. Thus, we built two new classifiers only on the most important features and we evaluated the accuracies (with and without feature selection) on test-set. The classifiers, trained on all the features, showed very poor accuracies on training (RF:58.62%, SVM:65.52%) and test sets (RF:62.5%, SVM:50%). Interestingly, when feature selection by RF and rfe-SVM were performed, the most important variable was the sensori-motor network I in both cases. Indeed, with only this network, RF and SVM classifiers reached an accuracy of 87.5% on test-set. More interestingly, the only misclassified patient resulted to have the lowest value of lesion volume. We showed that, with two different classification algorithms and feature selection approaches, the best discriminant network between controls and early MS, was the sensori-motor I. Similar importance values were obtained for the sensori-motor II, cerebellum and working memory networks. These findings, in according to the early manifestation of motor/sensorial deficits in MS, could represent an encouraging step toward the translation to the clinical diagnosis and prognosis.

Keywords: feature selection, machine learning, multiple sclerosis, random forest, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Dohwan Kim, Dongchoon Ryou, Pyungjong Yoo

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In public water facilities, drinking water distribution systems have played an important role along with water purification systems. The water distribution network is one of the most expensive components of water supply infrastructure systems. To improve the reliability for the drinking rate of tap water, advanced water treatment processes such as granular activated carbon and membrane filtration were used by water service providers in Korea. But, distrust of the people for tap water are still. Therefore, accurate diagnosis and condition assessment for water pipelines are required to supply the clean water. The internal corrosion of water pipe has increased as time passed. Also, the cross-sectional areas in pipe are reduced by the rust, deposits and tubercles. It is the water supply ability decreases as the increase of hydraulic pump capacity is required to supply an amount of water, such as the initial condition. If not, the poor area of water supply will be occurred by the decrease of water pressure. In order to solve these problems, water managers and engineers should be always checked for the current status of the water pipe, such as water leakage and damage of pipe. If problems occur, it should be able to respond rapidly and make an accurate estimate. In Korea, replacement and rehabilitation of aging drinking water pipes are carried out based on the circumstances of simply buried years. So, water distribution system management may not consider the entire water pipeline network. The long-term design and upgrading of a water distribution network should address economic, social, environmental, health, hydraulic, and other technical issues. This is a multi-objective problem with a high level of complexity. In this study, the thickness of the old water pipes, corrosion levels of the inner and outer surface for water pipes, basic data research (i.e. pipe types, buried years, accident record, embedded environment, etc.), specific resistance of soil, ultimate tensile strength and elongation of metal pipes, samples characteristics, and chemical composition analysis were performed about aging drinking water pipes. Samples of water pipes used in this study were cement mortar lining ductile cast iron pipe (CML-DCIP, diameter 100mm) and epoxy lining steel pipe (diameter 65 and 50mm). Buried years of CML-DCIP and epoxy lining steel pipe were respectively 32 and 23 years. The area of embedded environment was marine reclamation zone since 1940’s. The result of this study was that CML-DCIP needed replacement and epoxy lining steel pipe was still useful.

Keywords: drinking water distribution system, water supply, replacement, rehabilitation, water pipe

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: T. Punjansing, M. Nakkuntod, S. Homchan, P. Inthima, A. Kongbangkerd

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The influence of organic supplements on growth and multiplication efficiency of Phaius tankervilleae var. alba seedlings was investigated. 12 week-old seedlings were cultured on half-strength semi-solid Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium supplemented with 30 g/L sucrose, 8 g/L agar and various concentrations of coconut water (0, 50, 100, 150 and 200 mL/L) combined with potato extract (0, 25 and 50 g/L) and the pH was adjusted to 5.8 prior to autoclaving. The cultures were then kept under constant photoperiod (16 h light: 8 h dark) at 25 ± 2 °C for 12 weeks. The highest number of shoots (3.0 shoots/explant) was obtained when cultured on the medium added with 50 ml/L coconut water and 50 g/L potato extract whereas the highest number of leaves (5.9 leaves/explant) and roots (6.1 roots/explant) could receive on the medium supplemented with 150 ml/L coconut water and 50 g/L potato extract. with 150 ml/L coconut water and 50 g/L potato extract. Additionally, plantlets of P. tankervilleae var. alba were transferred to grow into seven different substrates i.e. soil, sand, coconut husk chip, soil-sand mix (1: 1), soil-coconut husk chip mix (1: 1), sand-coconut husk chip mix (1: 1) and soil-sand-coconut husk chip mix (1: 1: 1) for four weeks. The results found that acclimatized plants showed 100% of survivals when sand, coconut husk chip and sand-coconut husk chip mix are used as substrates. The number of leaves induced by sand-coconut husk chip mix was significantly higher than that planted in other substrates (P > 0.05). Meanwhile, no significant difference in new shoot formation among these substrates was observed (P < 0.05). This precursory developing protocol was likely to be applied for more large scale of plant production as well as conservation of germplasm of this orchid species.

Keywords: organic supplements, acclimatization, Phaius tankervilleae var. alba, orchid

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Authors: Zulkifli Zainal Abidin, Ahmad Shahril Mohd Ghani

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Agent-based systems technology has been addressed as a new paradigm for conceptualizing, designing, and implementing software systems. Agents are sophisticated systems that act autonomously across open and distributed environments in solving problems. Nevertheless, it is impractical to rely on a single agent to do all computing processes in solving complex problems. An increasing number of applications lately require multiple agents to work together. A multi-agent system (MAS) is a loosely coupled network of agents that interact to solve problems that are beyond the individual capacities or knowledge of each problem solver. However, the network of MAS still requires a main system to govern or oversees the operation of the agents in order to achieve a unified goal. We had developed a fleet management system (FMS) in order to manage the fleet of agents, plan route for the agents, perform real-time data processing and analysis, and issue sets of general and specific instructions to the agents. This FMS should be able to perform real-time data processing, communicate with the autonomous surface vehicle (ASV) agents and generate bathymetric map according to the data received from each ASV unit. The first algorithm is developed to communicate with the ASV via radio communication using standard National Marine Electronics Association (NMEA) protocol sentences. Next, the second algorithm will take care of the path planning, formation and pattern generation is tested using various sample data. Lastly, the bathymetry map generation algorithm will make use of data collected by the agents to create bathymetry map in real-time. The outcome of this research is expected can be applied on various other multi-agent systems.

Keywords: autonomous surface vehicle, fleet management system, multi agent system, bathymetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Atiya Mahmood, Mubasharah Hanif, Ghazala Butt, Mehwish Zahoor Ahmed

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Acne vulgaris affects millions of adults.Despite extensive research, its food related etiology remains elusive. Objective:To assess the correlation between dietary intake and acne through a case-control survey of 300,15-25 year old respondents living in Pakistan. 50 acne patients and 150 age-and ethnicity-matched controls completed a questionnaire.Cases and controls were separated using SPSS-22 and univariate analysis was performed using the chi-square test. p value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. We used adjusted odds ratios to assess the strength of associations with 95% confidence intervals. Most of the respondents were females(91.3%).Most(48.7%)acne patients were 20-25 yearsold.Acne severity was mild in 50%,moderate in 34%,severe in14%and very severe in 2%.Frequent low-fat foods(p<0.001)(OR=3.22),fat intake(p=0.03)(OR = 1.629),sweet snacks i.e. biscuits and candies etc. (p=0.013) (OR=1.9254), soft drinks(p= 0.045)(OR= 1.9091),butter(p<0.001) (OR= 1.8185),dairy products(p=0.043)(OR=0.624),salty foods(p= 0.011)(OR=1.961),chocolate (p=0.028)(OR=1.669), were associated with increased acne risk.No association was found with consumption of fried foods, desserts, fruit juices, raw fruit, fast food, vegetables, cheese, soy products, salt, and corn. Increased butter and chocolate consumption were linked to more severe forms of acne(p=0.049 and p=0.005 respectively).Most respondents (n=218) considered themselves to have healthy eating habits, indicating they were not educated about the nutritional aspects of acne treatment.Certain food item intake was significantly higher in acne patients to give an association between the two. Further studies must be conducted to develop a causative relationship. Nutrition aawareness is critical to reduce acne.

Keywords: correlation between dietary components and acne, dietary components, acne, nutrition

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Hyunsun Lee, Yi Zhu

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Wireless ad-hoc network is a decentralized type of temporary machine-to-machine connection that is spontaneous or impromptu so that it does not rely on any fixed infrastructure and centralized administration. As unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also called drones, have recently become more accessible and widely utilized in military and civilian domains such as surveillance, search and detection missions, traffic monitoring, remote filming, product delivery, to name a few. The communication between these UAVs become possible and materialized through Flying Ad-hoc Networks (FANETs). However, due to the high mobility of UAVs that may cause different types of transmission interference, it is vital to design robust routing protocols for FANETs. In this talk, the multicast routing method based on a modified stochastic branching process is proposed. The stochastic branching process is often used to describe an early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, and the reproductive number in the process is used to classify the outbreak into a major or minor outbreak. The reproductive number to regulate the local transmission rate is adapted and modified for flying ad-hoc network communication. The performance of the proposed routing method is compared with other well-known methods such as flooding method and gossip method based on three measures; average reachability, average node usage and average branching factor. The proposed routing method achieves average reachability very closer to flooding method, average node usage closer to gossip method, and outstanding average branching factor among methods. It can be concluded that the proposed multicast routing scheme is more efficient than well-known routing schemes such as flooding and gossip while it maintains high performance.

Keywords: Flying Ad-hoc Networks, Multicast Routing, Stochastic Branching Process, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Tesfaye Fenta Boka, Niu Zhendong

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Recommender systems play a crucial role in connecting individuals with the items they require, as is particularly evident in the rapid growth of online grocery shopping platforms. These systems predominantly rely on user-centered recommendations, where items are suggested based on individual preferences, garnering considerable attention and adoption. However, our focus lies on the item-centered recommendation task within the grocery shopping context. In the reverse next item period recommendation (RNPR) task, we are presented with a specific item and challenged to identify potential users who are likely to consume it in the upcoming period. Despite the ever-expanding inventory of products on online grocery platforms, the cold start item problem persists, posing a substantial hurdle in delivering personalized and accurate recommendations for new or niche grocery items. To address this challenge, we propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach. By capitalizing on the inherent relationships among grocery items and leveraging users' historical interactions, our model aims to provide reliable and context-aware recommendations for cold-start items. This integration of GNN technology holds the promise of enhancing recommendation accuracy and catering to users' individual preferences. This research contributes to the advancement of personalized recommendations in the online grocery shopping domain. By harnessing the potential of GNNs and exploring item-centered recommendation strategies, we aim to improve the overall shopping experience and satisfaction of users on these platforms.

Keywords: recommender systems, cold start item recommendations, online grocery shopping platforms, graph neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Muhammad Mehran Arshad Khan, Chengliang Wang, Zou Minhui, Danyal Badar Soomro

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Security of the smart home in terms of behavior activity pattern recognition is a totally dissimilar and unique issue as compared to the security issues of other scenarios. Sensor devices (low capacity and high capacity) interact and negotiate each other by detecting the daily behavior activity of individuals to execute common tasks. Once a device (e.g., surveillance camera, smart phone and light detection sensor etc.) is compromised, an adversary can then get access to a specific device and can damage daily behavior activity by altering the data and commands. In this scenario, a group of common instruction processes may get involved to generate deadlock. Therefore, an effective suitable security solution is required for smart home architecture. This paper proposes seamless distributed Scheme which fortifies low computational wireless devices for secure communication. Proposed scheme is based on lightweight key-session process to upheld cryptic-link for trajectory by recognizing of individual’s behavior activities pattern. Every device and service provider unit (low capacity sensors (LCS) and high capacity sensors (HCS)) uses an authentication token and originates a secure trajectory connection in network. Analysis of experiments is revealed that proposed scheme strengthens the devices against device seizure attack by recognizing daily behavior activities, minimum utilization memory space of LCS and avoids network from deadlock. Additionally, the results of a comparison with other schemes indicate that scheme manages efficiency in term of computation and communication.

Keywords: authentication, key-session, security, wireless sensors

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Authors: Vipul M. Patel, Hemantkumar B. Mehta

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Technological innovations in electronic world demand novel, compact, simple in design, less costly and effective heat transfer devices. Closed Loop Pulsating Heat Pipe (CLPHP) is a passive phase change heat transfer device and has potential to transfer heat quickly and efficiently from source to sink. Thermal performance of a CLPHP is governed by various parameters such as number of U-turns, orientations, input heat, working fluids and filling ratio. The present paper is an attempt to predict the thermal performance of a CLPHP using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Filling ratio and heat input are considered as input parameters while thermal resistance is set as target parameter. Types of neural networks considered in the present paper are radial basis, generalized regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation; feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent and Elman back propagation. Linear, logistic sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and Radial Basis Gaussian Function are used as transfer functions. Prediction accuracy is measured based on the experimental data reported by the researchers in open literature as a function of Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD). The prediction of a generalized regression ANN model with spread constant of 4.8 is found in agreement with the experimental data for MARD in the range of ±1.81%.

Keywords: ANN models, CLPHP, filling ratio, generalized regression, spread constant

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Authors: Fethi Bouksila, Nessrine Zemni, Fairouz Slama, Magnus Persson, Ronny Berndasson, Akissa Bahri

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Electromagnetic sensor EM 38 was used to predict and map soil salinity (ECe) in arid oasis. Despite the high spatial variation of soil moisture and shallow watertable, significant ECe-EM relationships were developed. The low drainage network efficiency is the main factor of soil salinization

Keywords: soil salinity map, electromagnetic induction, EM38, oasis, shallow watertable

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Authors: Syed Asif Hassan, Syed Atif Hassan

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Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is an infection caused by the resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that do not respond either to isoniazid or rifampicin, which are the most important anti-TB drugs. The increase in the occurrence of a drug-resistance strain of MTB calls for an intensive search of novel target-based therapeutics. In this context LprG (Rv1411c) a lipoprotein from MTB plays a pivotal role in the immune evasion of Mtb leading to survival and propagation of the bacterium within the host cell. Therefore, a machine learning method will be developed for generating a computational model that could predict for a potential anti LprG activity of the novel antituberculosis compound. The present study will utilize dataset from PubChem database maintained by National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). The dataset involves compounds screened against MTB were categorized as active and inactive based upon PubChem activity score. PowerMV, a molecular descriptor generator, and visualization tool will be used to generate the 2D molecular descriptors for the actives and inactive compounds present in the dataset. The 2D molecular descriptors generated from PowerMV will be used as features. We feed these features into three different classifiers, namely, random forest, a deep neural network, and a recurring neural network, to build separate predictive models and choosing the best performing model based on the accuracy of predicting novel antituberculosis compound with an anti LprG activity. Additionally, the efficacy of predicted active compounds will be screened using SMARTS filter to choose molecule with drug-like features.

Keywords: antituberculosis drug, classifier, machine learning, molecular descriptors, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Richard Grant, Landolf Rhode-Barbarigos, Shouraseni Sen Roy, Lucas Brittan, Change Li, Aiden Rowe

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Ports are critical for the US economy, connecting farmers, manufacturers, retailers, consumers and an array of transport and storage operators. Port facilities vary widely in terms of their productivity, footprint, specializations, and governance. In this context, Port Miami is considered as one of the busiest ports providing both cargo and cruise services in connecting the wider region of the Caribbean and Mesoamerica to the global networks. It is considered as the “Cruise Capital of the World and Global Gateway of the Americas” and “leading container port in Florida.” Furthermore, it has also been ranked as one of the top container ports in the world and the second most efficient port in North America. In this regard, Port Miami has made significant investments in the strategic and capital infrastructure of about US$1 billion, including increasing the channel depth and other onshore infrastructural enhancements. Therefore, this study involves a detailed analysis of Port Miami’s network, using publicly available multiple years of data about marine vessel traffic, cargo, and connectivity and performance indices from 2015-2021. Through the analysis of cargo and cruise vessels to and from Port Miami and its relative performance at the global scale from 2015 to 2021, this study examines the port’s long-term resilience and future growth potential. The main results of the analyses indicate that the top category for both inbound and outbound cargo is manufactured products and textiles. In addition, there are a lot of fresh fruits, vegetables, and produce for inbound and processed food for outbound cargo. Furthermore, the top ten port connections for Port Miami are all located in the Caribbean region, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Southeast USA. About half of the inbound cargo comes from Savannah, Saint Thomas, and Puerto Plata, while outbound cargo is from Puerto Corte, Freeport, and Kingston. Additionally, for cruise vessels, a significantly large number of vessels originate from Nassau, followed by Freeport. The number of passenger's vessels pre-COVID was almost 1,000 per year, which dropped substantially in 2020 and 2021 to around 300 vessels. Finally, the resilience and competitiveness of Port Miami were also assessed in terms of its network connectivity by examining the inbound and outbound maritime vessel traffic. It is noteworthy that the most frequent port connections for Port Miami were Freeport and Savannah, followed by Kingston, Nassau, and New Orleans. However, several of these ports, Puerto Corte, Veracruz, Puerto Plata, and Santo Thomas, have low resilience and are highly vulnerable, which needs to be taken into consideration for the long-term resilience of Port Miami in the future.

Keywords: port, Miami, network, cargo, cruise

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Authors: Yu-Hsiu Lin, Wen-Chun Lin, Yen-Chang Cheng, Chia-Ju Yeh, Yu-Chuan Chen, Tai-You Li

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Demand-Side Management (DSM) has the potential to reduce electricity costs and carbon emission, which are associated with electricity used in the modern society. A home Energy Management System (EMS) commonly used by residential consumers in a down-stream sector of a smart grid to monitor, control, and optimize energy efficiency to domestic appliances is a system of computer-aided functionalities as an energy audit for residential DSM. Implementing fault detection and classification to domestic appliances monitored, controlled, and optimized is one of the most important steps to realize preventive maintenance, such as residential air conditioning and heating preventative maintenance in residential/industrial DSM. In this study, a cloud intelligence-based green EMS that comes up with an Internet of Things (IoT) technology stack for residential DSM is developed. In the EMS, Arduino MEGA Ethernet communication-based smart sockets that module a Real Time Clock chip to keep track of current time as timestamps via Network Time Protocol are designed and implemented for readings of load phenomena reflecting on voltage and current signals sensed. Also, a Network-Attached Storage providing data access to a heterogeneous group of IoT clients via Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP) methods is configured to data stores of parsed sensor readings. Lastly, a desktop computer with a WAMP software bundle (the Microsoft® Windows operating system, Apache HTTP Server, MySQL relational database management system, and PHP programming language) serves as a data science analytics engine for dynamic Web APP/REpresentational State Transfer-ful web service of the residential DSM having globally-Advanced Internet of Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Computational Intelligence. Where, an abstract computing machine, Java Virtual Machine, enables the desktop computer to run Java programs, and a mash-up of Java, R language, and Python is well-suited and -configured for AI in this study. Having the ability of sending real-time push notifications to IoT clients, the desktop computer implements Google-maintained Firebase Cloud Messaging to engage IoT clients across Android/iOS devices and provide mobile notification service to residential/industrial DSM. In this study, in order to realize edge intelligence that edge devices avoiding network latency and much-needed connectivity of Internet connections for Internet of Services can support secure access to data stores and provide immediate analytical and real-time actionable insights at the edge of the network, we upgrade the designed and implemented smart sockets to be embedded AI Arduino ones (called embedded AIduino). With the realization of edge analytics by the proposed embedded AIduino for data analytics, an Arduino Ethernet shield WizNet W5100 having a micro SD card connector is conducted and used. The SD library is included for reading parsed data from and writing parsed data to an SD card. And, an Artificial Neural Network library, ArduinoANN, for Arduino MEGA is imported and used for locally-embedded AI implementation. The embedded AIduino in this study can be developed for further applications in manufacturing industry energy management and sustainable energy management, wherein in sustainable energy management rotating machinery diagnostics works to identify energy loss from gross misalignment and unbalance of rotating machines in power plants as an example.

Keywords: demand-side management, edge intelligence, energy management system, fault detection and classification

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Authors: M. Sundaram, H. R. Sanath Kumar, A. Ramprakash

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Energy saving is a key sustainability focus area for the Indian telecom industry today. This is especially true in rural India where energy consumption contributes to 70 % of the total network operating cost. In urban areas, the energy cost for network operation ranges between 15-30 %. This expenditure on energy as a result of the lack of grid power availability highlights a potential barrier to telecom industry growth. As a result of this, telecom tower companies switch to diesel generators, making them the second largest consumer of diesel in India, consuming over 2.5 billion litres per annum. The growing cost of energy due to increasing diesel prices and concerns over rising greenhouse emissions have caused these companies to look at other renewable energy options. Even the TRAI (Telecom Regulation Authority of India) has issued a number of guidelines to implement Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) in the telecom towers as part of its ‘Implementation of Green Technologies in Telecom Sector’ initiative. Our proposal suggests the implementation of a Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) based ‘optimisation controller’ that can not only efficiently utilize the energy from RETs but also help to conserve the power used in the telecom towers. When there are multiple RETs available to supply energy, this controller will pick the optimum amount of energy from each RET based on the availability and feasibility at that point of time, reducing the dependence on diesel generators. For effective maintenance of the towers, we are planing to implement a SCADA based monitoring system along with the ‘optimization controller’.

Keywords: operation costs, consumption of fuel and carbon footprint, implementation of a programmable logic controller (PLC) based ‘optimisation controller’, efficient SCADA based monitoring system

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Authors: Eva Degraeuwe, Margo Vandenheede, Nicholas Rennie, Jolien Braem, Miryam Serry, Frederik Berrevoet, Piet Pattyn, Wouter Willaert, InciSioN Belgium Consortium

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Background: Worldwide, five billion people lack access to safe and affordable surgical care. An added 1.27 million surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians (SAO) are needed by 2030 to meet the target of 20 per 100,000 population and to reach the goal of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. A well-informed future generation exposed early on to the current challenges in global surgery (GS) is necessary to ensure a sustainable future. Methods: InciSioN, the International Student Surgical Network, is a non-profit organization by and for students, residents, and fellows in over 80 countries. InciSioN Belgium, one of the prominent national working groups, has made a vast progression and collaborated with other networks to fill the educational gap, stimulate advocacy efforts and increase interactions with the international network. This report describes a roadmap to achieve sustainable development and education within GS, with the example of InciSioN Belgium. Results: Since the establishment of the organization’s branch in 2019, it has hosted an educational workshop for first-year residents in surgery, engaging over 2500 participants, and established a recurring directing board of 15 members. In the year 2020-2021, InciSioN Ghent has organized three workshops combining educational and interactive sessions for future prime advocates and surgical candidates. InciSioN Belgium has set up a strong formal coalition with the Belgian Medical Students’ Association (BeMSA), with its own standing committee, reaching over 3000+ medical students annually. In 2021-2022, InciSioN Belgium broadened to a multidisciplinary approach, including dentistry and nursing students and graduates within workshops and research projects, leading to a member and exposure increase of 450%. This roadmap sets strategic goals and mechanisms for the GS community to achieve nationwide sustained improvements in the research and education of GS focused on future SAOs, in order to achieve the GS sustainable development goals. In the coming year, expansion is directed to a formal integration of GS into the medical curriculum and increased international advocacy whilst inspiring SAOs to integrate into GS in Belgium. Conclusion: The development and implementation of durable change for GS are necessary. The student organization InciSioN Belgium is growing and hopes to close the colossal gap in GS and inspire the growth of other branches while sharing the know-how of a student organization.

Keywords: advocacy, education, global surgery, InciSioN, student network

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Authors: Irene Yi

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Machine learning, natural language processing, and neural network models of language are becoming more and more prevalent in the fields of technology and linguistics today. Training data for machines are at best, large corpora of human literature and at worst, a reflection of the ugliness in society. Machines have been trained on millions of human books, only to find that in the course of human history, derogatory and sexist adjectives are used significantly more frequently when describing females in history and literature than when describing males. This is extremely problematic, both as training data, and as the outcome of natural language processing. As machines start to handle more responsibilities, it is crucial to ensure that they do not take with them historical sexist and misogynistic notions. This paper gathers data and algorithms from neural network models of language having to deal with syntax, semantics, sociolinguistics, and text classification. Results are significant in showing the existing intentional and unintentional misogynistic notions used to train machines, as well as in developing better technologies that take into account the semantics and syntax of text to be more mindful and reflect gender equality. Further, this paper deals with the idea of non-binary gender pronouns and how machines can process these pronouns correctly, given its semantic and syntactic context. This paper also delves into the implications of gendered grammar and its effect, cross-linguistically, on natural language processing. Languages such as French or Spanish not only have rigid gendered grammar rules, but also historically patriarchal societies. The progression of society comes hand in hand with not only its language, but how machines process those natural languages. These ideas are all extremely vital to the development of natural language models in technology, and they must be taken into account immediately.

Keywords: gendered grammar, misogynistic language, natural language processing, neural networks

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Authors: Khalil Ahmad Kakar

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In developing countries increasing the automobile and low capacity public transport (para-transit) which are creating congestion, pollution, noise, and traffic accident are the most critical quandary. These issues are under the analysis of assessors to break down the puzzle and propose sustainable urban public transport system. Kabul city is one of those urban areas that the inhabitants are suffering from lack of tolerable and friendly public transport system. The city is the most-populous and overcrowded with around 4.5 million population. The para-transit is the only dominant public transit system with a very poor level of services and low capacity vehicles (6-20 passengers). Therefore, this study after detailed investigations suggests bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Kabul City. It is aimed to mitigate the role of informal transport and decreases congestion. The research covers three parts. In the first part, aggregated travel demand modelling (four-step) is applied to determine the number of users for para-transit and assesses BRT network based on higher passenger demand for public transport mode. In the second part, state preference (SP) survey and binary logit model are exerted to figure out the utility of existing para-transit mode and planned BRT system. Finally, the impact of predicted BRT system on para-transit is evaluated. The extracted outcome based on high travel demand suggests 10 km network for the proposed BRT system, which is originated from the district tenth and it is ended at Kabul International Airport. As well as, the result from the disaggregate travel mode-choice model, based on SP and logit model indicates that the predicted mass rapid transit system has higher utility with the significant impact regarding the reduction of para-transit.

Keywords: BRT, para-transit, travel demand modelling, Kabul City, logit model

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Authors: Teka Haile, Behailu Hawulte, Solomon Alemayehu

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Background: HIV virological failure still remains a problem in HV/AIDS treatment and care. This study aimed to describe the prevalence and identify the factors associated with viral non-suppression among HIV-positive adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Woliso Town, Oromia, Ethiopia. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 424 HIV-positive patient’s attending antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Woliso Town during the period from August 25, 2020 to August 30, 2020. Data collected from patient medical records were entered into Epi Info version 2.3.2.1 and exported to SPSS version 21.0 for analysis. Logistic regression analysis was done to identify factors associated with viral load non-suppression, and statistical significance of odds ratios were declared using 95% confidence interval and p-value < 0.05. Results: A total of 424 patients were included in this study. The mean age (± SD) of the study participants was 39.88 (± 9.995) years. The prevalence of HIV viral load non-suppression was 55 (13.0%) with 95% CI (9.9-16.5). Second-line ART treatment regimen (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 8.98, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.64, 30.58) and routine viral load testing (AOR = 0.01, 95% CI: 0.001, 0.02) were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. Conclusion: Virological non-suppression was high, which hinders the achievement of the third global 95 target. The second-line regimen and routine viral load testing were significantly associated with virological non-suppression. It suggests the need to assess the effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs for epidemic control. It also clearly shows the need to decentralize third-line ART treatment for those patients in need.

Keywords: virological non-suppression, HIV-positive, ART, Woliso town, Ethiopia

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Authors: Frodouard Minani

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Since last decade, wireless sensor networks (WSNs) have been used in many areas like health care, agriculture, defense, military, disaster hit areas and so on. Wireless Sensor Networks consist of a Base Station (BS) and more number of wireless sensors in order to monitor temperature, pressure, motion in different environment conditions. The key parameter that plays a major role in designing a protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks is energy efficiency which is a scarcest resource of sensor nodes and it determines the lifetime of sensor nodes. Maximizing sensor node’s lifetime is an important issue in the design of applications and protocols for Wireless Sensor Networks. Clustering sensor nodes mechanism is an effective topology control approach for helping to achieve the goal of this research. In this paper, the researcher presents an energy efficiency protocol to prolong the network lifetime based on Energy efficient clustering algorithm. The Low Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy (LEACH) is a routing protocol for clusters which is used to lower the energy consumption and also to improve the lifetime of the Wireless Sensor Networks. Maximizing energy dissipation and network lifetime are important matters in the design of applications and protocols for wireless sensor networks. Proposed system is to maximize the lifetime of the Wireless Sensor Networks by choosing the farthest cluster head (CH) instead of the closest CH and forming the cluster by considering the following parameter metrics such as Node’s density, residual-energy and distance between clusters (inter-cluster distance). In this paper, comparisons between the proposed protocol and comparative protocols in different scenarios have been done and the simulation results showed that the proposed protocol performs well over other comparative protocols in various scenarios.

Keywords: base station, clustering algorithm, energy efficient, sensors, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Anukriti Verma, Bhawna Rathi, Shivani Sharda

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Reactive Arthritis (ReA) is a disorder that causes inflammation in joints due to certain infections at distant sites in the body. ReA begins with stiffness, pain, and inflammation in these areas especially the ankles, knees, and hips. It gradually causes several complications such as conjunctivitis in the eyes, skin lesions in hand, feet and nails and ulcers in the mouth. Nowadays the diagnosis of ReA is based upon a differential diagnosis pattern. The parameters for differentiating ReA from other similar disorders include physical examination, history of the patient and a high index of suspicion. There are no standard lab tests or markers available for ReA hence the early diagnosis of ReA becomes difficult and the chronicity of disease increases with time. It is reported that enteric disorders such as Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) that is inflammation in gastrointestinal tract namely Crohn’s Disease (CD) and Ulcerative Colitis (UC) are reported to be linked with ReA. Several microorganisms are found such as Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shigella and Yersinia causing IBD leading to ReA. The aim of our study was to perform the in-silico analysis in order to find interactions between microorganisms and human host causing IBD leading to ReA. A systems biology approach for metabolic network reconstruction and simulation was used to find the essential genes of the reported microorganisms. Interactomics study was used to find the interactions between the pathogen genes and human host. Genes such as nhaA (pathogen), dpyD (human), nagK (human) and kynU (human) were obtained that were analysed further using the functional, pathway and network analysis. These genes can be used as putative drug targets and biomarkers in future for early diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of IBD leading to ReA.

Keywords: drug targets, inflammatory bowel disease, reactive arthritis, systems biology

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in two key steps of seismic hazard and risk assessment of different types of structures. The first step is the development of ground-motion models, which are used for forecasting ground-motion intensity measures (IM) given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition for future events. IMs such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available. Second, it is investigated how machine learning techniques could be beneficial for developing probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs), which provide the relationship between the structural demand responses (e.g., component deformations, accelerations, internal forces, etc.) and the ground motion IMs. In the risk framework, such models are used to develop fragility curves estimating exceeding probability of damage for pre-defined limit states, and therefore, control the reliability of the predictions in the risk assessment. In this study, machine learning algorithms like artificial neural network, random forest, and support vector machine are adopted and trained on the demand parameters to derive PSDMs for them. It is observed that such models can provide more accurate estimates of prediction in relatively shorter about of time compared to conventional methods. Moreover, they can be used for sensitivity analysis of fragility curves with respect to many modeling parameters without necessarily requiring more intense numerical response-history analysis.

Keywords: artificial neural network, machine learning, random forest, seismic risk analysis, seismic hazard analysis, support vector machine

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Authors: Nur Atiqah Adam, Mor Jack Ng, Bernard Chern, Kok Hian Tan

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Introduction: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication with short and long-term health consequences for both mother and fetus. Factors such as family history of diabetes mellitus, maternal obesity, maternal age, ethnicity and parity have been reported to influence the risk of GDM. In a multi-racial country like Singapore, it is worthwhile to study the GDM prevalences of different ethnicities. We aim to investigate the influence of ethnicity on the racial prevalences of GDM in Singapore. This is important as it may help us to improve guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to significant risk factors unique to Singapore. Materials and Methods: Obstetric cohort data of 926 singleton deliveries in KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital (KKH) from 2011 to 2013 was obtained. Only patients aged 18 and above and without complicated pregnancies or chronic illnesses were targeted. Factors such as ethnicity, maternal age, parity and maternal body mass index (BMI) at booking visit were studied. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for confounders, was used to determine which of these factors are significantly associated with an increased risk of GDM. Results: The overall GDM prevalence rate based on WHO 1999 criteria & at risk screening (race alone not a risk factor) was 8.86%. GDM rates were higher among women above 35 years old (15.96%), obese (15.15%) and multiparous women (10.12%). Indians had a higher GDM rate (13.0 %) compared to the Chinese (9.57%) and Malays (5.20%). However, using multiple logistic regression model, variables that are significantly related to GDM rates were maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal BMI at booking visit (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal booking BMI (p = 0.006) are the strongest risk factors for GDM. Ethnicity per se does not seem to have a significant influence on the prevalence of GDM in Singapore (p = 0.064). Hence we should tailor guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to maternal age and booking BMI rather than ethnicity.

Keywords: ethnicity, gestational diabetes, healthcare, pregnancy

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Authors: Sarpong Boateng, Rohit Balasundaram, Akua Afrah Amoah

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Introduction: Racial and Gender disparities have been found to be independently associated with Salivary Gland Cancers (SGCs) survival; however, to our best knowledge, there are no previous studies on the interplay of these social determinants on the prognosis of SGCs. The objective of this study was to examine the joint effect of race and gender on the survival of SGCs. Methods: We analyzed survival outcomes of 13,547 histologically confirmed cases of SGCs using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (2004 to 2015). Multivariable Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) after controlling for age, tumor characteristics, treatment type and year of diagnosis. Results: 73.5% of the participants were whites, 8.5% were blacks, 10.1% were Hispanics and 58.5% were males. Overall, males had poorer survival than females (HR = 1.16, p=0.003). In the adjusted multivariable model, there were no significant differences in survival by race. However, the interaction of gender and race was statistically significant (p=0.01) in Hispanic males. Thus, compared to White females (reference), Hispanic females had significantly better survival (HR=0.53), whiles Hispanic males had worse survival outcomes (HR=1.82) for SGCs. Conclusions: Our results show significant interactions between race and gender, with racial disparities varying across the different genders for SGCs survival. This study indicates that racial and gender differences are crucial factors to be considered in the prognostic counseling and management of patients with SGCs. Biologic factors, tumor genetic characteristics, chemotherapy, lifestyle, environmental exposures, and socioeconomic and dietary factors are potential yet proven reasons that could account for racial and gender differences in the survival of SGCs.

Keywords: salivary, cancer, survival, disparity, race, gender, SEER

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Authors: Javad Taherahmadi, Mohammad Jafarian, Mohammad Naser Asefi

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The global capacity of wind power has dramatically increased in recent years. Therefore, improving the technology of wind turbines to take different advantages of this enormous potential in the power grid, could be interesting subject for scientists. The doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbine is a popular system due to its many advantages such as the improved power quality, high energy efficiency and controllability, etc. With an increase in wind power penetration in the network and with regard to the flexible control of wind turbines, the use of wind turbine systems to improve the dynamic stability of power systems has been of significance importance for researchers. Subsynchronous oscillations are one of the important issues in the stability of power systems. Damping subsynchronous oscillations by using wind turbines has been studied in various research efforts, mainly by adding an auxiliary control loop to the control structure of the wind turbine. In most of the studies, this control loop is composed of linear blocks. In this paper, simple adaptive control is used for this purpose. In order to use an adaptive controller, the convergence of the controller should be verified. Since adaptive control parameters tend to optimum values in order to obtain optimum control performance, using this controller will help the wind turbines to have positive contribution in damping the network subsynchronous oscillations at different wind speeds and system operating points. In this paper, the application of simple adaptive control in DFIG wind turbine systems to improve the dynamic stability of power systems is studied and the essential condition for using this controller is considered. It is also shown that this controller has an insignificant effect on the dynamic stability of the wind turbine, itself.

Keywords: almost strictly positive real (ASPR), doubly-fed induction generator (DIFG), simple adaptive control (SAC), subsynchronous oscillations, wind turbine

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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