Search results for: modeling methodology

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

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This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Selma Bouasria, Mahi Abdelkader, Abbès Azzi, Herouz Keltoum

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This paper reports concept was used into the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code cfx through user-defined functions to assess ventilation efficiency inside (forced-ventilation local). CFX is a simulation tool which uses powerful computer and applied mathematics, to model fluid flow situations for the prediction of heat, mass and momentum transfer and optimal design in various heat transfer and fluid flow processes to evaluate thermal comfort in a room ventilated (highly-glazed). The quality of the solutions obtained from CFD simulations is an effective tool for predicting the behavior and performance indoor thermo-aéraulique comfort.

Keywords: ventilation, thermal comfort, CFD, indoor environment, solar air heater

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Authors: Aydin Azizi, Aburrahman Tanira

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The main source of energy used in this modern age is fossil fuels. There is a myriad of problems that come with the use of fossil fuels, out of which the issues with the greatest impact are its scarcity and the cost it imposes on the planet. Fossil fuels are the only plausible option for many vital functions and processes; the most important of these is transportation. Thus, using this source of energy wisely and as efficiently as possible is a must. The aim of this work was to explore utilising mathematical modelling and artificial intelligence techniques to enhance fuel consumption in passenger cars by focusing on the speed at which cars are driven. An artificial neural network with an error less than 0.05 was developed to be applied practically as to predict the rate of fuel consumption in vehicles.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, neural networks, fuel consumption, fossil fuel

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Authors: Tshegofatso Rambau, Tonderai Muchenje

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Zero-day attacks (ZDA) are increasing day by day; there are many vulnerabilities in systems and software that date back decades. Companies keep discovering vulnerabilities in their systems and software and work to release patches and updates. A zero-day vulnerability is a software fault that is not widely known and is unknown to the vendor; attackers work very quickly to exploit these vulnerabilities. These are major security threats with a high success rate because businesses lack the essential safeguards to detect and prevent them. This study focuses on the factors and techniques that can help us detect zero-day attacks. There are various methods and techniques for detecting vulnerabilities. Various companies like edges can offer penetration testing and smart vulnerability management solutions. We will undertake literature studies on zero-day attacks and detection methods, as well as modeling approaches and simulations, as part of the study process.

Keywords: zero-day attacks, exploitation, vulnerabilities

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Authors: Dijiang Lyu, Shaoying Li, Zhangzhi Tan, Zhifeng Wu, Feng Gao

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Nowadays, China is experiencing rapidly urban rail transit expansions in the world. The purpose of this study is to finely model factors influencing transit ridership at multi-time dimensions within transit stations’ pedestrian catchment area (PCA) in Guangzhou, China. This study was based on multi-sources spatial data, including smart card data, high spatial resolution images, points of interest (POIs), real-estate online data and building height data. Eight multiple linear regression models using backward stepwise method and Geographic Information System (GIS) were created at station-level. According to Chinese code for classification of urban land use and planning standards of development land, residential land-use were divided into three categories: first-level (e.g. villa), second-level (e.g. community) and third-level (e.g. urban villages). Finally, it concluded that: (1) four factors (CBD dummy, number of feeder bus route, number of entrance or exit and the years of station operation) were proved to be positively correlated with transit ridership, but the area of green land-use and water land-use negative correlated instead. (2) The area of education land-use, the second-level and third-level residential land-use were found to be highly connected to the average value of morning peak boarding and evening peak alighting ridership. But the area of commercial land-use and the average height of buildings, were significantly positive associated with the average value of morning peak alighting and evening peak boarding ridership. (3) The area of the second-level residential land-use was rarely correlated with ridership in other regression models. Because private car ownership is still large in Guangzhou now, and some residents living in the community around the stations go to work by transit at peak time, but others are much more willing to drive their own car at non-peak time. The area of the third-level residential land-use, like urban villages, was highly positive correlated with ridership in all models, indicating that residents who live in the third-level residential land-use are the main passenger source of the Guangzhou Metro. (4) The diversity of land-use was found to have a significant impact on the passenger flow on the weekend, but was non-related to weekday. The findings can be useful for station planning, management and policymaking.

Keywords: fine-scale modeling, Guangzhou city, multi-time dimensions, multi-sources spatial data, transit ridership

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Authors: Nashwah Alnajjar

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This research paper provides an overview of Replika, an AI chatbot application that uses natural language processing technology to engage in conversations with users. The app was developed to provide users with a virtual AI friend who can converse with them on various topics, including mental health. This study explores the experiences of Replika users using quantitative research methodology. A survey was conducted with 12 participants to collect data on their demographics, usage patterns, and experiences with the Replika app. The results showed that Replika has the potential to play a role in mental health support and well-being.

Keywords: Replika, chatbot, mental health, artificial intelligence, natural language processing

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Authors: Saeidreza Radpour, Md. Alam Mondal, Amit Kumar

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Market penetration of high energy efficiency technologies has key impacts on energy consumption and GHG mitigation. Also, it will be useful to manage the policies formulated by public or private organizations to achieve energy or environmental targets. Energy intensity in residential sector of Alberta was 148.8 GJ per household in 2012 which is 39% more than the average of Canada 106.6 GJ, it was the highest amount among the provinces on per household energy consumption. Energy intensity by appliances of Alberta was 15.3 GJ per household in 2012 which is 14% higher than average value of other provinces and territories in energy demand intensity by appliances in Canada. In this research, a framework has been developed to analyze the market penetration and market share of high energy efficiency technologies in residential sector. The overall methodology was based on development of data-intensive models’ estimation of the market penetration of the appliances in the residential sector over a time period. The developed models were a function of a number of macroeconomic and technical parameters. Developed mathematical equations were developed based on twenty-two years of historical data (1990-2011). The models were analyzed through a series of statistical tests. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were estimated based on the related variables such as capital and operating costs, discount rate, appliance’s life time, annual interest rate, incentives and maximum achievable efficiency in the period of 2015 to 2050. Results show that the market penetration of refrigerators is higher than that of other appliances. The stocks of refrigerators per household are anticipated to increase from 1.28 in 2012 to 1.314 and 1.328 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Modelling results show that the market penetration rate of stand-alone freezers will decrease between 2012 and 2050. Freezer stock per household will decline from 0.634 in 2012 to 0.556 and 0.515 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The stock of dishwashers per household is expected to increase from 0.761 in 2012 to 0.865 and 0.960 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The increase in the market penetration rate of clothes washers and clothes dryers is nearly parallel. The stock of clothes washers and clothes dryers per household is expected to rise from 0.893 and 0.979 in 2012 to 0.960 and 1.0 in 2050, respectively. This proposed presentation will include detailed discussion on the modelling methodology and results.

Keywords: appliances efficiency improvement, energy star, market penetration, residential sector

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Authors: Jifeng Zhang , Yongpeng Lei

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Continuous carbon fiber reinforced polyamide 6 (CF/PA6) composites are potential for application in the automotive industry due to their high specific strength and stiffness. However, PA6 resin is sensitive to the moisture in the hydrothermal environment and CF/PA6 composites might undergo several physical and chemical changes, such as plasticization, swelling, and hydrolysis, which induces a reduction of mechanical properties. So far, little research has been reported on the assessment of the effects of hydrothermal aging on the mechanical properties of continuous CF/PA6 composite. This study deals with the effects of hydrothermal aging on moisture absorption and mechanical properties of polyamide 6 (PA6) and polyamide 6 reinforced with continuous carbon fibers composites (CF/PA6) by immersion in distilled water at 30 ℃, 50 ℃, 70 ℃, and 90 ℃. Degradation of mechanical performance has been monitored, depending on the water absorption content and the aging temperature. The experimental results reveal that under the same aging condition, the PA6 resin absorbs more water than the CF/PA6 composite, while the water diffusion coefficient of CF/PA6 composite is higher than that of PA6 resin because of interfacial diffusion channel. In mechanical properties degradation process, an exponential reduction in tensile strength and elastic modulus are observed in PA6 resin as aging temperature and water absorption content increases. The degradation trend of flexural properties of CF/PA6 is the same as that of tensile properties of PA6 resin. Moreover, the water content plays a decisive role in mechanical degradation compared with aging temperature. In contrast, hydrothermal environment has mild effect on the tensile properties of CF/PA6 composites. The elongation at breakage of PA6 resin and CF/PA6 reaches the highest value when their water content reaches 6% and 4%, respectively. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) were also used to explain the mechanism of mechanical properties alteration. After exposed to the hydrothermal environment, the Tg (glass transition temperature) of samples decreases dramatically with water content increase. This reduction can be ascribed to the plasticization effect of water. For the unaged specimens, the fibers surface is coated with resin and the main fracture mode is fiber breakage, indicating that a good adhesion between fiber and matrix. However, with absorbed water content increasing, the fracture mode transforms to fiber pullout. Finally, based on Arrhenius methodology, a predictive model with relate to the temperature and water content has been presented to estimate the retention of mechanical properties for PA6 and CF/PA6.

Keywords: continuous carbon fiber reinforced polyamide 6 composite, hydrothermal aging, Arrhenius methodology, interface

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Authors: D. Pérez, M. M. E. Alemany

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In this work a Framework to model the Supply Chain (SC) Collaborative Planning (CP) Process is proposed, and particularly its Decisional view. The main Framework contributions with regards to previous related works are the following, 1) the consideration of not only the Decision view, the most important one due to the Process type, but other additional three views which are the Physical, Organisation and Information ones, closely related and complementing the Decision View, 2) the joint consideration of two interdependence types, the Temporal (among Decision Centres belonging to different Decision Levels) and Spatial (among Decision Centres belonging to the same Decision Level) to support the distributed Decision-Making process in SC where several decision Centres interact among them in a collaborative manner.

Keywords: collaborative planning, decision view, distributed decision-making, framework

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Authors: Julien Caudeville, Muriel Ismert

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Analyzing the relationship between environment and health has become a major preoccupation for public health as evidenced by the emergence of the French national plans for health and environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: (1) to identify and manage geographic areas, where hotspot exposures are suspected to generate a potential hazard to human health; (2) to reduce exposure inequalities. At a regional scale and fine resolution of exposure outcome prerequisite, environmental monitoring networks are not sufficient to characterize the multidimensionality of the exposure concept. In an attempt to increase representativeness of spatial exposure assessment approaches, risk composite indicators could be built using additional available databases and theoretical framework approaches to combine factor risks. To achieve those objectives, combining data process and transfer modeling with a spatial approach is a fundamental prerequisite that implies the need to first overcome different scientific limitations: to define interest variables and indicators that could be built to associate and describe the global source-effect chain; to link and process data from different sources and different spatial supports; to develop adapted methods in order to improve spatial data representativeness and resolution. A GIS-based modeling platform for quantifying human exposure to chemical substances (PLAINE: environmental inequalities analysis platform) was used to build health risk indicators within the Lorraine region (France). Those indicators combined chemical substances (in soil, air and water) and noise risk factors. Tools have been developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interest variables from different supports and resolutions on a 1 km2 regular grid within the Lorraine region. By example, surface soil concentrations have been estimated by developing a Kriging method able to integrate surface and point spatial supports. Then, an exposure model developed by INERIS was used to assess the transfer from soil to individual exposure through ingestion pathways. We used distance from polluted soil site to build a proxy for contaminated site. Air indicator combined modeled concentrations and estimated emissions to take in account 30 polluants in the analysis. For water, drinking water concentrations were compared to drinking water standards to build a score spatialized using a distribution unit serve map. The Lden (day-evening-night) indicator was used to map noise around road infrastructures. Aggregation of the different factor risks was made using different methodologies to discuss weighting and aggregation procedures impact on the effectiveness of risk maps to take decisions for safeguarding citizen health. Results permit to identify pollutant sources, determinants of exposure, and potential hotspots areas. A diagnostic tool was developed for stakeholders to visualize and analyze the composite indicators in an operational and accurate manner. The designed support system will be used in many applications and contexts: (1) mapping environmental disparities throughout the Lorraine region; (2) identifying vulnerable population and determinants of exposure to set priorities and target for pollution prevention, regulation and remediation; (3) providing exposure database to quantify relationships between environmental indicators and cancer mortality data provided by French Regional Health Observatories.

Keywords: health risk, environment, composite indicator, hotspot areas

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Authors: Razieh Khalafi

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The brain is the information processing centre of the human body. Stimuli in the form of information are transferred to the brain and then brain makes the decision on how to respond to them. In this research, we propose a new partial differential equation which analyses the EEG signals and make a relationship between the incoming stimuli and the brain response to them. In order to test the proposed model, a set of external stimuli applied to the model and the model’s outputs were checked versus the real EEG data. The results show that this model can model the EEG signal well. The proposed model is useful not only for modelling of EEG signal in case external stimuli but it can be used for modelling of brain response in case of internal stimuli.

Keywords: brain, stimuli, partial differential equation, response, EEG signal

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Frederic Diels

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Nowadays, manufacturing companies are faced with the challenge of meeting heterogeneous customer requirements in short product life cycles with a variety of product functions. So far, some of the functional requirements remain unknown until late stages of the product development. A way to handle these uncertainties is the highly iterative product development (HIP) approach. By structuring the development project as a highly iterative process, this method provides customer oriented and marketable products. There are first approaches for combined, hybrid models comprising deterministic-normative methods like the Stage-Gate process and empirical-adaptive development methods like SCRUM on a project management level. However, almost unconsidered is the question, which development scopes can preferably be realized with either empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative approaches. In this context, a development scope constitutes a self-contained section of the overall development objective. Therefore, this paper focuses on a methodology that deals with the uncertainty of requirements within the early development stages and the corresponding selection of the most appropriate development approach. For this purpose, internal influencing factors like a company’s technology ability, the prototype manufacturability and the potential solution space as well as external factors like the market accuracy, relevance and volatility will be analyzed and combined into an Agile-Indicator. The Agile-Indicator is derived in three steps. First of all, it is necessary to rate each internal and external factor in terms of the importance for the overall development task. Secondly, each requirement has to be evaluated for every single internal and external factor appropriate to their suitability for empirical-adaptive development. Finally, the total sums of internal and external side are composed in the Agile-Indicator. Thus, the Agile-Indicator constitutes a company-specific and application-related criterion, on which the allocation of empirical-adaptive and deterministic-normative development scopes can be made. In a last step, this indicator will be used for a specific clustering of development scopes by application of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm. The FCM-method determines sub-clusters within functional clusters based on the empirical-adaptive environmental impact of the Agile-Indicator. By means of the methodology presented in this paper, it is possible to classify requirements, which are uncertainly carried out by the market, into empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative development scopes.

Keywords: agile, highly iterative development, agile-indicator, product development

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Authors: S. B. Provost, Hossein Zareamoghaddam

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A univariate density approximation technique whereby the derivative of the logarithm of a density function is assumed to be expressible as a rational function is introduced. This approach which extends Pearson’s curve system is solely based on the moments of a distribution up to a determinable order. Upon solving a system of linear equations, the coefficients of the polynomial ratio can readily be identified. An explicit solution to the integral representation of the resulting density approximant is then obtained. It will be explained that when utilised in conjunction with sample moments, this methodology lends itself to the modelling of ‘big data’. Applications to sets of univariate and bivariate observations will be presented.

Keywords: density estimation, log-density, moments, Pearson's curve system

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dawoudi

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With the increasing rate of patients suffering from chronic pain, several methods for evaluating of chronic pain are suggested. Motion of morbid has been defined as the rate of pine and it is linked with various co-morbid conditions. This study provides a summary of procedure useful to statistics performing direct behavioral observation in hospital settings. We describe the need for and usefulness of comprehensive “morbid motions” observations; provide a primer on the identification, definition, and assessment of morbid behaviors; and outline and discuss specific statistical procedures, including formulating referral motions, describing and conducting the observation. We also provide practical devices for observing and analyzing the obtained information into a report that guides clinical intervention.

Keywords: assessing pain, DNA modeling, image matching technique, pain scale

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Authors: H. R. Kamali, A. Sadegheih, M. A. Vahdat-Zad, H. Khademi-Zare

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In this paper, a single product, multi-echelon, multi-period closed loop supply chain is surveyed, including a variety of costs, time conditions, and capacities, to plan and determine the values and time of the components procurement, production, distribution, recycling and disposal specially for high-tech products that undergo a decreasing production cost and sale price over time. For this purpose, the mathematic model of the problem that is a kind of mixed integer linear programming is presented, and it is finally proved that the problem belongs to the category of NP-hard problems.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, continuous price decrease, NP-hard, planning

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Authors: Wesley A. Saltarelli, Nicolas R. Finkler, Adriana C. P. Miwa, Maria C. Calijuri, Davi G. F. Cunha

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The metabolism of the streams is an indicator of ecosystem disturbance due to the influences of the catchment on the structure of the water bodies. The study of the respiration and photosynthesis allows the estimation of energy fluxes through the food webs and the analysis of the autotrophic and heterotrophic processes. We aimed at evaluating the metabolism in streams located in the Brazilian savannah, Cerrado (Sao Carlos, SP), by determining and modeling the daily changes of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the water during one year. Three water bodies with minimal anthropogenic interference in their surroundings were selected, Espraiado (ES), Broa (BR) and Canchim (CA). Every two months, water temperature, pH and conductivity are measured with a multiparameter probe. Nitrogen and phosphorus forms are determined according to standard methods. Also, canopy cover percentages are estimated in situ with a spherical densitometer. Stream flows are quantified through the conservative tracer (NaCl) method. For the metabolism study, DO (PME-MiniDOT) and light (Odyssey Photosynthetic Active Radiation) sensors log data for at least three consecutive days every ten minutes. The reaeration coefficient (k2) is estimated through the method of the tracer gas (SF6). Finally, we model the variations in DO concentrations and calculate the rates of gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP) and respiration based on the one station method described in the literature. Three sampling were carried out in October and December 2015 and February 2016 (the next will be in April, June and August 2016). The results from the first two periods are already available. The mean water temperatures in the streams were 20.0 +/- 0.8C (Oct) and 20.7 +/- 0.5C (Dec). In general, electrical conductivity values were low (ES: 20.5 +/- 3.5uS/cm; BR 5.5 +/- 0.7uS/cm; CA 33 +/- 1.4 uS/cm). The mean pH values were 5.0 (BR), 5.7 (ES) and 6.4 (CA). The mean concentrations of total phosphorus were 8.0ug/L (BR), 66.6ug/L (ES) and 51.5ug/L (CA), whereas soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations were always below 21.0ug/L. The BR stream had the lowest concentration of total nitrogen (0.55mg/L) as compared to CA (0.77mg/L) and ES (1.57mg/L). The average discharges were 8.8 +/- 6L/s (ES), 11.4 +/- 3L/s and CA 2.4 +/- 0.5L/s. The average percentages of canopy cover were 72% (ES), 75% (BR) and 79% (CA). Significant daily changes were observed in the DO concentrations, reflecting predominantly heterotrophic conditions (respiration exceeded the gross primary production, with negative net primary production). The GPP varied from 0-0.4g/m2.d (in Oct and Dec) and the R varied from 0.9-22.7g/m2.d (Oct) and from 0.9-7g/m2.d (Dec). The predominance of heterotrophic conditions suggests increased vulnerability of the ecosystems to artificial inputs of organic matter that would demand oxygen. The investigation of the metabolism in the pristine streams can help defining natural reference conditions of trophic state.

Keywords: low-order streams, metabolism, net primary production, trophic state

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

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Airport’s serving a tourist destination are an essential counterpart of the tourist demand supply chain, and their productivity is related to the region’s attractiveness and is enhanced by the air transport business. In this paper, the evaluation framework of the scheduled flights between two tourist airports is taken into consideration. By adopting a systemic approach, the arrivals from an airport that its connectivity heavily depended on the departures of another major airport are reviewed. The methodology framework, based on inventory control theory and the numerical example, promotes the use of the modelling formulation. The results would be essential for comparison and exercising to other similar cases.

Keywords: airport connectivity, inventory control, optimization, optimum allocation

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Authors: A. El Amri, M. El Yakhloufi Haddou, A. Khamlichi

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The numerical simulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in academic institutes and in the industry. It is a useful tool to predict many phenomena present in the classical manufacturing forming processes such as fracture. But, the results of such numerical model depend strongly on the parameters of the constitutive behavior model. The influences of thermal and mechanical loads cause damage. The temperature and strain rate dependent materials’ properties and their modelling are discussed. A Johnson-Cook Model of damage has been selected for the numerical simulations. Virtual software called the ABAQUS 6.11 is used for finite element analysis. This model was introduced in order to give information concerning crack initiation during thermal and mechanical loads.

Keywords: thermo-mechanical fatigue, failure, numerical simulation, fracture, damage

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Authors: Riddhi Jangid, Gajendra Pratap Singh

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Petri nets, a mathematical tool, is used for modeling in different areas of computer sciences, biological networks, chemical systems and many other disciplines. A Petri net model of a given system is created by the graphical representation that describes the properties and behavior of the system. While looking for the behavior of any system, 1-safe Petri nets are of particular interest to many in the application part. Boolean Petri nets correspond to those class in 1- safe Petri nets that generate all the binary n-vectors in their reachability analysis. We study the class by changing different parameters like the token counts in the places and how the structure of the tree changes in the reachability analysis. We discuss here an extended class of Boolean Petri nets that generates n-ary trees in their reachability-based analysis.

Keywords: marking vector, n-vector, petri nets, reachability

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

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This paper presents a practical case application of simulation modeling and analysis in a specific industrial setting. Various maintenance related parameters of the equipment in the system under consideration are determined and a simulation model is developed to study system behavior. System performance is determined based on established parameters and operational policies, which included system operation with and without preventive maintenance implementation. The results show that preventive maintenance practice has significant effects on improving system productivity. The simulation procedures outlined in this paper can be used by operation managers to perform production line analysis under different maintenance policies in various industrial settings.

Keywords: simulation, production line, machine failures, maintenance, industrial bakery

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Authors: Rajaa Filali, Mohamed Bouhdadi

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This paper presents an incremental development of the Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol (DHCP) in Event-B. DHCP is widely used communication protocol, which provides a standard mechanism to obtain configuration parameters. The specification is performed in a stepwise manner and verified through a series of refinements. The Event-B formal method uses the Rodin platform to modeling and verifying some properties of the protocol such as safety, liveness and deadlock freedom. To model and verify the protocol, we use the formal technique Event-B which provides an accessible and rigorous development method. This interaction between modelling and proving reduces the complexity and helps to eliminate misunderstandings, inconsistencies, and specification gaps.

Keywords: DHCP protocol, Event-B, refinement, proof obligation, Rodin

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Authors: Gulshan Sachdeva, Vaibhav Jain

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In present paper, the performance of various alternative refrigerants is compared to find the substitute of R22, the widely used hydrochlorofluorocarbon refrigerant in developing countries. These include the environmentally friendly hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants such as R134A, R410A, R407C and M20. In the present study, a steady state thermodynamic model (includes both first and second law analysis) which simulates the working of an actual vapor-compression system is developed. The model predicts the performance of system with alternative refrigerants. Considering the recent trends of replacement of ozone depleting refrigerants and improvement in system efficiency, R407C is found to be potential candidate to replace R22 refrigerant in the present study.

Keywords: refrigeration, compression system, performance study, modeling, R407C

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Authors: Solehah Yaacob

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The study focuses on revisiting the effectiveness of Critical Thinking in human mind capability as a major faculty in human life. The tool used as a measurement of this knowledge ability consists of several processes including experience and education background. To emphasize the `Overview` concept, the researcher highlights two major aspects of philosophical approach, they are; Divine Revelation Concept and Modern Scientific Theory. The research compares between the both parties to introduce the Divine Revelation into Modern Scientific theory. An analytical and critical study of the both concepts become the methodology of the discussion.

Keywords: critical thinking, knowledge, intellectual, language

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Authors: G. Khamooshian

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One of the main points of application of the mechanisms of the series and parallel is the subject of managing them. The control of this mechanism and similar mechanisms is one that has always been the intention of the scholars. On the other hand, modeling the behavior of the system is difficult due to the large number of its parameters, and it leads to complex equations that are difficult to solve and eventually difficult to control. In this paper, a six-linkage robot has been presented that could be used in different areas such as medical robots. Using these robots needs a robust control. In this paper, the system equations are first found, and then the system conversion function is written. A new controller has been designed for this robot which could be used in other parallel robots and could be very useful. Parallel robots are so important in robotics because of their stability, so methods for control of them are important and the robust controller, especially in parallel robots, makes a sense.

Keywords: 3-RRS, 6 linkage, parallel robot, control

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Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

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Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

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Authors: Abdelsalam Omar

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This paper presents simulation-based case study that indicate the need for accurate dynamic modeling of distance protection relay. In many cases, a static analysis based on current and voltage phasors may be sufficient to assess the performance of distance protection. There are several circumstances under which such a simplified study does not provide the depth of analysis necessary to obtain accurate results, however. This letter present study of the influences of magnetizing inrush and power swing on the performance of distance protection relay. One type of numerical distance protection relay has been investigated: 7SA511. The study has been performed in order to demonstrate the relay response when dynamic model of distance relay is utilized.

Keywords: distance protection, magnitizing inrush, power swing, dynamic model of protection relays, simulatio

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Authors: C. Slim

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Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series, ADF tests

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Authors: Dariush Jafari, S. Mostafa Nowee

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In this study a ternary system containing sodium chloride as solute, water as primary solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent was considered to investigate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of sodium solubility in the mixture of water as the solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent. The system was previously studied using by Extended UNIQUAC model by the authors of this study. The comparison between the results of the two models shows an excellent agreement between them (R2=0.99), and also approves the capability of ANN to predict the thermodynamic behavior of ternary electrolyte systems which are difficult to model.

Keywords: thermodynamic modeling, ANN, solubility, ternary electrolyte system

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Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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Authors: Saadat Ali, Rashid Abdulla Ahmed Alshehhi

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Cable faults are always probable and common during or after commissioning, causing significant delays and disrupting power distribution or transmission network, which is intolerable for the utilities&service providers being their reliability and business continuity measures. Therefore, the adoption of rapid localization & rectification methodology is the main concern for them. This paper explores the present techniques available for high voltage cable localization & rectification and which is preferable with regards to easier, faster, and also less harmful to cables. It also provides insight experience of high resistance fault locating by utilization of the Very Low Frequency (VLF) method.

Keywords: faults, VLF, real cases, cables

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