Search results for: financial risk tolerance
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8719

Search results for: financial risk tolerance

6349 The Comparative Analysis of International Financial Reporting Standart Adoption through Earnings Response Coefficient and Conservatism Principle: Case Study in Jakarta Islamic Index 2010 – 2014

Authors: Dwi Wijiastutik, Tarjo, Yuni Rimawati

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The purpose of this empirical study is to analyse how to the market reaction and the conservative degree changes on the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standart (IFRS) through Jakarta Islamic Index. The study also has given others additional analysis on the profitability, capital structure and size company toward IFRS adoption. The data collection methods used in this study reveals as secondary data and deep analysis to the company’s annual report and daily price stock at yahoo finance. We analyse 40 companies listed on Jakarta Islamic Index from 2010 to 2014. The result of the study concluded that IFRS has given a different on the depth analysis to the two of variance analysis: Moderated Regression Analysis and Wilcoxon Signed Rank to test developed hypotheses. Our result on the regression analysis shows that market response and conservatism principle is not significantly after IFRS Adoption in Jakarta Islamic Index. Furthermore, in addition, analysis on profitability, capital structure, and company size show that significantly after IFRS adoption. The findings of our study help investor by showing the impact of IFRS for making decided investment.

Keywords: IFRS, earnings response coefficient, conservatism principle

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6348 Minerals of Canola (Brassica napus) as Affected by Water Stress and Applied Calcium

Authors: Rizwan Alam, Ikhtiar Khan, Aqib Iqbal

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Plants are naturally exposed to a wide variety of environmental stresses. The stresses may be biotic or/and abiotic. These environmental stresses have adverse effects on photosynthesis, water relation and nutrients uptake of plants. Fertilization of plants with exogenous minerals can enhance the drought tolerance in plants. In this experiment, canola (Brassica napus) was treated with solutions of calcium nitrate in different concentrations before the imposition of drought stress for 10 days. It was observed that drought stress decreased the tissue-K, Ca and K/Ca ratio of canola seedlings. The tissue-carbon and nitrogen contents were also depressed by the drought stress. Application of calcium nitrate, however, could alleviate the adverse effects of drought stress by showing a positive effect on all the aforementioned parameters.

Keywords: Brassica napus, calcium, carbon, potassium

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6347 Assessment of Potential Chemical Exposure to Betamethasone Valerate and Clobetasol Propionate in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Laboratories

Authors: Nadeen Felemban, Hamsa Banjer, Rabaah Jaafari

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One of the most common hazards in the pharmaceutical industry is the chemical hazard, which can cause harm or develop occupational health diseases/illnesses due to chronic exposures to hazardous substances. Therefore, a chemical agent management system is required, including hazard identification, risk assessment, controls for specific hazards and inspections, to keep your workplace healthy and safe. However, routine management monitoring is also required to verify the effectiveness of the control measures. Moreover, Betamethasone Valerate and Clobetasol Propionate are some of the APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) with highly hazardous classification-Occupational Hazard Category (OHC 4), which requires a full containment (ECA-D) during handling to avoid chemical exposure. According to Safety Data Sheet, those chemicals are reproductive toxicants (reprotoxicant H360D), which may affect female workers’ health and cause fatal damage to an unborn child, or impair fertility. In this study, qualitative (chemical Risk assessment-qCRA) was conducted to assess the chemical exposure during handling of Betamethasone Valerate and Clobetasol Propionate in pharmaceutical laboratories. The outcomes of qCRA identified that there is a risk of potential chemical exposure (risk rating 8 Amber risk). Therefore, immediate actions were taken to ensure interim controls (according to the Hierarchy of controls) are in place and in use to minimize the risk of chemical exposure. No open handlings should be done out of the Steroid Glove Box Isolator (SGB) with the required Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs). The PPEs include coverall, nitrile hand gloves, safety shoes and powered air-purifying respirators (PAPR). Furthermore, a quantitative assessment (personal air sampling) was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the engineering controls (SGB Isolator) and to confirm if there is chemical exposure, as indicated earlier by qCRA. Three personal air samples were collected using an air sampling pump and filter (IOM2 filters, 25mm glass fiber media). The collected samples were analyzed by HPLC in the BV lab, and the measured concentrations were reported in (ug/m3) with reference to Occupation Exposure Limits, 8hr OELs (8hr TWA) for each analytic. The analytical results are needed in 8hr TWA (8hr Time-weighted Average) to be analyzed using Bayesian statistics (IHDataAnalyst). The results of the Bayesian Likelihood Graph indicate (category 0), which means Exposures are de "minimus," trivial, or non-existent Employees have little to no exposure. Also, these results indicate that the 3 samplings are representative samplings with very low variations (SD=0.0014). In conclusion, the engineering controls were effective in protecting the operators from such exposure. However, routine chemical monitoring is required every 3 years unless there is a change in the processor type of chemicals. Also, frequent management monitoring (daily, weekly, and monthly) is required to ensure the control measures are in place and in use. Furthermore, a Similar Exposure Group (SEG) was identified in this activity and included in the annual health surveillance for health monitoring.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, chemical exposure, hierarchy of control, reproductive

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6346 Assets Integrity Management in Oil and Gas Production Facilities through Corrosion Mitigation and Inspection Strategy: A Case Study of Sarir Oilfield

Authors: Iftikhar Ahmad, Youssef Elkezza

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Sarir oilfield is in North Africa. It has facilities for oil and gas production. The assets of the Sarir oilfield can be divided into five following categories, namely: (i) well bore and wellheads; (ii) vessels such as separators, desalters, and gas processing facilities; (iii) pipelines including all flow lines, trunk lines, and shipping lines; (iv) storage tanks; (v) other assets such as turbines and compressors, etc. The nature of the petroleum industry recognizes the potential human, environmental and financial consequences that can result from failing to maintain the integrity of wellheads, vessels, tanks, pipelines, and other assets. The importance of effective asset integrity management increases as the industry infrastructure continues to age. The primary objective of assets integrity management (AIM) is to maintain assets in a fit-for-service condition while extending their remaining life in the most reliable, safe, and cost-effective manner. Corrosion management is one of the important aspects of successful asset integrity management. It covers corrosion mitigation, monitoring, inspection, and risk evaluation. External corrosion on pipelines, well bores, buried assets, and bottoms of tanks is controlled with a combination of coatings by cathodic protection, while the external corrosion on surface equipment, wellheads, and storage tanks is controlled by coatings. The periodic cleaning of the pipeline by pigging helps in the prevention of internal corrosion. Further, internal corrosion of pipelines is prevented by chemical treatment and controlled operations. This paper describes the integrity management system used in the Sarir oil field for its oil and gas production facilities based on standard practices of corrosion mitigation and inspection.

Keywords: assets integrity management, corrosion prevention in oilfield assets, corrosion management in oilfield, corrosion prevention, inspection activities

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6345 Phenotype of Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a Brazilian City with a Tropical Climate

Authors: Julia V. F. Cortes, Maria E. V. Amarante, Carolina L. Cerdeira, Roberta B. V. Silva

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Nonmelanoma skin cancer is more commonly diagnosed than all other malignancies combined. In that group, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma stands out for having the highest probability of metastasis and recurrence after treatment, in addition to being the second most prevalent form of skin cancer. Its main risk factors include exposure to carcinogens, such as ultraviolet radiation related to sunlight exposure, smoking, alcohol consumption, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Considering the increased risk of skin cancer in the Brazilian population, caused by the high incidence of solar radiation, and the importance of identifying risk phenotypes for the accomplishment of public health actions, an epidemiological study was conducted in a city with a tropical climate located in southeastern Brazil, aiming to identify the target population and assist in primary and secondary prevention. This study describes the profile of patients with cutaneous squamous cell cancer, correlating the variables, sex, age, and differentiation. The study used as primary data source the results of anatomopathological exams delivered from January 2015 to December 2019 for patients registered at one pathology service, which analyzes the results of biopsies, Thus, 66 patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma were analyzed. The most affected age group was 60 years or older (78.79%), emphasizing that moderately differentiated (79.49%) and well-differentiated forms (66.67%) are prevalent in this age group, resulting in a difference of 12.82 percentage points between them. In addition, the predominant sex was male (58%), and it was found that half of the women and 65.79% of men had a moderately differentiated type, whereas the well-differentiated type was slightly more frequent in women. It is worth noting that the moderately differentiated subtype has a 59.20% prevalence among all cases. Thus, it was concluded that the most affected age group was 60 years or older and that men were more affected. As for the subtype, the moderately differentiated one, which is recognized for presenting the second-highest risk for metastasis, was prevalent in this study, affecting 6.6% more men and predominating in the elderly.

Keywords: cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, epidemiology, skin cancer, spinal cell cancer

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6344 Urban Seismic Risk Reduction in Algeria: Adaptation and Application of the RADIUS Methodology

Authors: Mehdi Boukri, Mohammed Naboussi Farsi, Mounir Naili, Omar Amellal, Mohamed Belazougui, Ahmed Mebarki, Nabila Guessoum, Brahim Mezazigh, Mounir Ait-Belkacem, Nacim Yousfi, Mohamed Bouaoud, Ikram Boukal, Aboubakr Fettar, Asma Souki

Abstract:

The seismic risk to which the urban centres are more and more exposed became a world concern. A co-operation on an international scale is necessary for an exchange of information and experiments for the prevention and the installation of action plans in the countries prone to this phenomenon. For that, the 1990s was designated as 'International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)' by the United Nations, whose interest was to promote the capacity to resist the various natural, industrial and environmental disasters. Within this framework, it was launched in 1996, the RADIUS project (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster), whose the main objective is to mitigate seismic risk in developing countries, through the development of a simple and fast methodological and operational approach, allowing to evaluate the vulnerability as well as the socio-economic losses, by probable earthquake scenarios in the exposed urban areas. In this paper, we will present the adaptation and application of this methodology to the Algerian context for the seismic risk evaluation in urban areas potentially exposed to earthquakes. This application consists to perform an earthquake scenario in the urban centre of Constantine city, located at the North-East of Algeria, which will allow the building seismic damage estimation of this city. For that, an inventory of 30706 building units was carried out by the National Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (CGS). These buildings were digitized in a data base which comprises their technical information by using a Geographical Information system (GIS), and then they were classified according to the RADIUS methodology. The study area was subdivided into 228 meshes of 500m on side and Ten (10) sectors of which each one contains a group of meshes. The results of this earthquake scenario highlights that the ratio of likely damage is about 23%. This severe damage results from the high concentration of old buildings and unfavourable soil conditions. This simulation of the probable seismic damage of the building and the GIS damage maps generated provide a predictive evaluation of the damage which can occur by a potential earthquake near to Constantine city. These theoretical forecasts are important for decision makers in order to take the adequate preventive measures and to develop suitable strategies, prevention and emergency management plans to reduce these losses. They can also help to take the adequate emergency measures in the most impacted areas in the early hours and days after an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: seismic risk, mitigation, RADIUS, urban areas, Algeria, earthquake scenario, Constantine

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6343 Young People, Well-Being and Risk-Taking: Doing Gender in Relation to Health and Heavy Drinking

Authors: Jukka Torronen

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Introduction: Alcohol consumption and health are areas where gender binaries have persisted. By intoxication, men have displayed their masculinity as strong, while matters of health have formed a feminine undertaking. However, in recent years young people’s alcohol consumption has declined and been challenged by competing activities, including the rising health trend. This makes the comparison of young people’s masculinities and femininities in health and heavy drinking an important case to study. Methods: The data consists of semi-structured interviews about alcohol, health, and leisure activities among young people aged between 15 and 19 (N=56). By drawing on Butler’s work on “gender as performative” and Connell’s understanding of gendered identities as “configurations of practices,” the paper analyzes how the interviewees are doing masculinities and femininities in relation to health and heavy drinking, and how their gender performances are dichotomous, naturalized and contested. Results: The interviewees approach health from two perspectives, which are called “social health” and “physical health” approaches. They are both gendered. Especially in the “social health” approach, in which intoxication and risk-taking are used to increase well-being, the interviewees perform stereotypical gender binaries. The interviewees’ gendered performances in the “physical health” approach show more variability and are more reflective and critical. In contrast to intoxication, in relation to which the interviewees perform biologically driven gender binaries, they perform culturally driven genders in relation to health. Conclusions: Health seems to provide for the interviewees a field in which they feel more liberated to perform flexible and alternative genders.

Keywords: young people, decline in drinking, qualitative interviews, gender, health, risk-taking

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6342 The SEMONT Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Environmental EMF Pollution

Authors: Dragan Kljajic, Nikola Djuric, Karolina Kasas-Lazetic, Danka Antic

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Wireless communications have been expanded very fast in recent decades. This technology relies on an extensive network of base stations and antennas, using radio frequency signals to transmit information. Devices that use wireless communication, while offering various services, basically act as sources of non-ionizing electromagnetic fields (EMF). Such devices are permanently present in the human vicinity and almost constantly radiate, causing EMF pollution of the environment. This fact has initiated development of modern systems for observation of the EMF pollution, as well as for risk assessment. This paper presents the Serbian electromagnetic field monitoring network – SEMONT, designed for automated, remote and continuous broadband monitoring of EMF in the environment. Measurement results of the SEMONT monitoring at one of the test locations, within the main campus of the University of Novi Sad, are presented and discussed, along with corresponding exposure assessment of the general population, regarding the Serbian legislation.

Keywords: EMF monitoring, exposure assessment, sensor nodes, wireless network

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6341 Using GIS for Assessment and Modelling of Oil Spill Risk at Vulnerable Coastal Resources: Of Misratah Coast, Libya

Authors: Abduladim Maitieg

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The oil manufacture is one of the main productive activities in Libya and has a massive infrastructure, including offshore drilling and exploration and wide oil export platform sites that located in coastal area. There is a threat to marine and coastal area of oil spills is greatest in those sites with a high spills comes from urban and industry, parallel to that, monitoring oil spills and risk emergency strategy is weakness, An approach for estimating a coastal resources vulnerability to oil spills is presented based on abundance, environmental and Scio-economic importance, distance to oil spill resources and oil risk likelihood. As many as 10 coastal resources were selected for oil spill assessment at the coast. This study aims to evaluate, determine and establish vulnerable coastal resource maps and estimating the rate of oil spill comes for different oil spill resources in Misratah marine environment. In the study area there are two type of oil spill resources, major oil resources come from offshore oil industries which are 96 km from the Coast and Loading/Uploading oil platform. However, the miner oil resources come from urban sewage pipes and fish ports. In order to analyse the collected database, the Geographic information system software has been used to identify oil spill location, to map oil tracks in front of study area, and developing seasonal vulnerable costal resources maps. This work shows that there is a differential distribution of the degree of vulnerability to oil spills along the coastline, with values ranging from high vulnerability and low vulnerability, and highlights the link between oil spill movement and coastal resources vulnerability. The results of assessment found most of costal freshwater spring sites are highly vulnerable to oil spill due to their location on the intertidal zone and their close to proximity to oil spills recourses such as Zreag coast. Furthermore, the Saltmarsh coastline is highly vulnerable to oil spill risk due to characterisation as it contains a nesting area of sea turtles and feeding places for migratory birds and the . Oil will reach the coast in winter season according to oil spill movement. Coastal tourist beaches in the north coast are considered as highly vulnerable to oil spill due to location and closeness to oil spill resources.

Keywords: coastal recourses vulnerability, oil spill trajectory, gnome software, Misratah coast- Libya, GIS

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6340 Characteristics of Female Offenders: Using Childhood Victimization Model for Treatment

Authors: Jane E. Hill

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Sexual, physical, or emotional abuses are behaviors used by one person in a relationship or within a family unit to control the other person. Physical abuse can consist of, but not limited to hitting, pushing, and shoving. Sexual abuse is unwanted or forced sexual activity on a person without their consent. Abusive behaviors include intimidation, manipulation, humiliation, isolation, frightening, terrorizing, coercing, threatening, blaming, hurting, injuring, or wounding another individual. Although emotional, psychological and financial abuses are not criminal behaviors, they are forms of abuse and can leave emotional scars on their victim. The purpose of this literature review research was to examine characteristics of female offenders, past abuse, and pathways to offending. The question that guided this research: does past abuse influence recidivism? The theoretical foundation used was relational theory by Jean Baker Miller. One common feature of female offenders is abuse (sexual, physical, or verbal). Abuse can cause mental illnesses and substance abuse. The abuse does not directly affect the women's recidivism. However, results indicated the psychological and maladaptive behaviors as a result of the abuse did contribute to indirect pathways to continue offending. The female offenders’ symptoms of ongoing depression, anxiety, and engaging in substance abuse (self medicating) did lead to the women's incarceration. Using the childhood victimization model as the treatment approach for women's mental illness and substance abuse disorders that were a result from history of child abuse have shown success. With that in mind, if issues surrounding early victimization are not addressed, then the women offenders may not recover from their mental illness or addiction and are at a higher risk of reoffending. However, if the women are not emotionally ready to engage in the treatment process, then it should not be forced onto them because it may cause harm (targeting prior traumatic experiences). Social capital is family support and sources that assist in helping the individual with education, employment opportunities that can lead to success. Human capital refers to internal knowledge, skills, and capacities that help the individual act in new and appropriate ways. The lack of human and social capital is common among female offenders, which leads to extreme poverty and economic marginalization, more often in frequent numbers than men. In addition, the changes in welfare reform have exacerbated women’s difficulties in gaining adequate-paying jobs to support themselves and their children that have contributed to female offenders reoffending. With that in mind, one way to lower the risk factor of female offenders from reoffending is to provide them with educational and vocational training, enhance their self-efficacy, and teach them appropriate coping skills and life skills. Furthermore, it is important to strengthen family bonds and support. Having a supportive family relationship was a statistically significant protective factor for women offenders.

Keywords: characteristics, childhood victimization model, female offenders, treatment

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6339 'Pink' Waxapple Response to Salinity: Growth and Nutrient Uptake

Authors: Shang-Han Tsai, Yong-Hong Lin, Chung-Ruey Yen

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Wax apple is an important tropical fruit in Taiwan. The famous producing area is located on the coast in Pingtung county. Land subsidence and climate change will tend to soil alkalization more seriously. This study was to evaluate the effects of NaCl in wax apple seedlings. NaCl salinity reduced wax apple shoot growth, it may due to reducing relative water content in leaf and new shoot. Leaf Cl and Na concentration were increased but K, Ca, and Mg content had no significant difference after irrigated with NaCl for six weeks. In roots, Na and Cl content increase significantly with 90 mM NaCl treatment, but K, Ca, and Mg content was reduced. 30-90 mM Nacl treatment do not affect K/Na, Ca/Na, and Mg/Na ratio, but decrease significantly in 90 mM treatment in roots. The leaf and root electrolyte leakage were significantly affected by 90 mM NaCl treatment. Suggesting 90 mM was optimum concentration for sieve out other tolerance wax apple verities.

Keywords: growth, NaCl stress, nutrient, wax apple

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6338 Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Anti-Debris Flow Engineering Constructed to Reduce the Risk of Expected Debris Flow in the River Mletiskhevi by Computer Program RAMMS

Authors: Sopio Gogilava, Goga Chakhaia, Levan Tsulukidze, Zurab Laoshvili, Irina Khubulava, Shalva Bosikashvili, Teimuraz Gugushvili

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Geoinformatics systems (GIS) integrated computer program RAMMS is widely used for forecasting debris flows and accordingly for the determination of anticipating risks with 85% accuracy. In view of the above, the work introduces new capabilities of the computer program RAMMS, which evaluates the effectiveness of anti-debris flow engineering construction, namely: the possibility of decreasing the expected velocity, kinetic energy, and output cone volume in the Mletiskhevi River. As a result of research has been determined that the anti-debris flow engineering construction designed to reduce the expected debris flow risk in the Mletiskhevi River is an effective environmental protection technology, that's why its introduction is promising.

Keywords: construction, debris flow, geoinformatics systems, program RAMMS

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6337 Sync Consensus Algorithm: Trying to Reach an Agreement at Full Speed

Authors: Yuri Zinchenko

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Recently, distributed storage systems have been used more and more in various aspects of everyday life. They provide such necessary properties as Scalability, Fault Tolerance, Durability, and others. At the same time, not only reliable but also fast data storage remains one of the most pressing issues in this area. That brings us to the consensus algorithm as one of the most important components that has a great impact on the functionality of a distributed system. This paper is the result of an analysis of several well-known consensus algorithms, such as Paxos and Raft. The algorithm it offers, called Sync, promotes, but does not insist on simultaneous writing to the nodes (which positively affects the overall writing speed) and tries to minimize the system's inactive time. This allows nodes to reach agreement on the system state in a shorter period, which is a critical factor for distributed systems. Also when developing Sync, a lot of attention was paid to such criteria as simplicity and intuitiveness, the importance of which is difficult to overestimate.

Keywords: sync, consensus algorithm, distributed system, leader-based, synchronization.

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6336 Role of P53 Codon 72 Polymorphism and Mir-146a Rs2910164 Polymorphism in Cervical Cancer

Authors: Hossein Rassi, Marjan Moradi Fard, Masoud Houshmand

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Background: Cervical cancer is multistep disease that is thought to result from an interaction between genetic background and environmental factors. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the leading risk factor for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cervical cancer. In other hand, some of p53 and miRNA polymorphism may plays an important role in carcinogenesis. This study attempts to clarify the relation of p53 genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism in cervical lesions. Method: Forty two archival samples with cervical lesion retired from Khatam hospital and 40 sample from healthy persons used as control group. A simple and rapid method was used to detect the simultaneous amplification of the HPV consensus L1 region and HPV-16,-18, -11, -31, 33 and -35 along with the b-globin gene as an internal control. We use Multiplex PCR for detection of P53 and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in our lab. Finally, data analysis was performed using the 7 version of the Epi Info(TM) 2012 software and test chi-square(x2) for trend. Results: Cervix lesions were collected from 42 patients with Squamous metaplasia, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and cervical carcinoma. Successful DNA extraction was assessed by PCR amplification of b-actin gene (99bp). According to the results, p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of cervical lesions in the study population. In this study, we detected 13 HPV 18 from 42 cervical cancer. Conclusion: The connection between several SNP polymorphism and human virus papilloma in rare researches were seen. The reason of these differences in researches' findings can result in different kinds of races and geographic situations and also differences in life grooves in every region. The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype may effect cervical cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with HPV 18 genotype. Our results demonstrate that the testing of p53 codon 72 polymorphism genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism genotypes in combination with HPV18 can serve as major risk factors in the early identification of cervical cancers. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer by vaccination against HPV18 in Iran.

Keywords: cervical cancer, HPV18, p53 codon 72 polymorphism, miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism

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6335 Acute Antihyperglycemic Activity of a Selected Medicinal Plant Extract Mixture in Streptozotocin Induced Diabetic Rats

Authors: D. S. N. K. Liyanagamage, V. Karunaratne, A. P. Attanayake, S. Jayasinghe

Abstract:

Diabetes mellitus is an ever increasing global health problem which causes disability and untimely death. Current treatments using synthetic drugs have caused numerous adverse effects as well as complications, leading research efforts in search of safe and effective alternative treatments for diabetes mellitus. Even though there are traditional Ayurvedic remedies which are effective, due to a lack of scientific exploration, they have not been proven to be beneficial for common use. Hence the aim of this study is to evaluate the traditional remedy made of mixture of plant components, namely leaves of Murraya koenigii L. Spreng (Rutaceae), cloves of Allium sativum L. (Amaryllidaceae), fruits of Garcinia queasita Pierre (Clusiaceae) and seeds of Piper nigrum L. (Piperaceae) used for the treatment of diabetes. We report herein the preliminary results for the in vivo study of the anti-hyperglycaemic activity of the extracts of the above plant mixture in Wistar rats. A mixture made out of equal weights (100 g) of the above mentioned medicinal plant parts were extracted into cold water, hot water (3 h reflux) and water: acetone mixture (1:1) separately. Male wistar rats were divided into six groups that received different treatments. Diabetes mellitus was induced by intraperitoneal administration of streptozotocin at a dose of 70 mg/ kg in male Wistar rats in group two, three, four, five and six. Group one (N=6) served as the healthy untreated and group two (N=6) served as diabetic untreated control and both groups received distilled water. Cold water, hot water, and water: acetone plant extracts were orally administered in diabetic rats in groups three, four and five, respectively at different doses of 0.5 g/kg (n=6), 1.0 g/kg(n=6) and 1.5 g/kg(n=6) for each group. Glibenclamide (0.5 mg/kg) was administered to diabetic rats in group six (N=6) served as the positive control. The acute anti-hyperglycemic effect was evaluated over a four hour period using the total area under the curve (TAUC) method. The results of the test group of rats were compared with the diabetic untreated control. The TAUC of healthy and diabetic rats were 23.16 ±2.5 mmol/L.h and 58.31±3.0 mmol/L.h, respectively. A significant dose dependent improvement in acute anti-hyperglycaemic activity was observed in water: acetone extract (25%), hot water extract ( 20 %), and cold water extract (15 %) compared to the diabetic untreated control rats in terms of glucose tolerance (P < 0.05). Therefore, the results suggest that the plant mixture has a potent antihyperglycemic effect and thus validating their used in Ayurvedic medicine for the management of diabetes mellitus. Future studies will be focused on the determination of the long term in vivo anti-diabetic mechanisms and isolation of bioactive compounds responsible for the anti-diabetic activity.

Keywords: acute antihyperglycemic activity, herbal mixture, oral glucose tolerance test, Sri Lankan medicinal plant extracts

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6334 Modelling Forest Fire Risk in the Goaso Forest Area of Ghana: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Approach

Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: forest, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso

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6333 Health and Climate Changes: "Ippocrate" a New Alert System to Monitor and Identify High Risk

Authors: A. Calabrese, V. F. Uricchio, D. di Noia, S. Favale, C. Caiati, G. P. Maggi, G. Donvito, D. Diacono, S. Tangaro, A. Italiano, E. Riezzo, M. Zippitelli, M. Toriello, E. Celiberti, D. Festa, A. Colaianni

Abstract:

Climate change has a severe impact on human health. There is a vast literature demonstrating temperature increase is causally related to cardiovascular problem and represents a high risk for human health, but there are not study that improve a solution. In this work, it is studied how the clime influenced the human parameter through the analysis of climatic conditions in an area of the Apulia Region: Capurso Municipality. At the same time, medical personnel involved identified a set of variables useful to define an index describing health condition. These scientific studies are the base of an innovative alert system, IPPOCRATE, whose aim is to asses climate risk and share information to population at risk to support prevention and mitigation actions. IPPOCRATE is an e-health system, it is designed to provide technological support to analysis of health risk related to climate and provide tools for prevention and management of critical events. It is the first integrated system of prevention of human risk caused by climate change. IPPOCRATE calculates risk weighting meteorological data with the vulnerability of monitored subjects and uses mobile and cloud technologies to acquire and share information on different data channels. It is composed of four components: Multichannel Hub. Multichannel Hub is the ICT infrastructure used to feed IPPOCRATE cloud with a different type of data coming from remote monitoring devices, or imported from meteorological databases. Such data are ingested, transformed and elaborated in order to be dispatched towards mobile app and VoIP phone systems. IPPOCRATE Multichannel Hub uses open communication protocols to create a set of APIs useful to interface IPPOCRATE with 3rd party applications. Internally, it uses non-relational paradigm to create flexible and highly scalable database. WeHeart and Smart Application The wearable device WeHeart is equipped with sensors designed to measure following biometric variables: heart rate, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, body temperature and blood glucose for diabetic subjects. WeHeart is designed to be easy of use and non-invasive. For data acquisition, users need only to wear it and connect it to Smart Application by Bluetooth protocol. Easy Box was designed to take advantage from new technologies related to e-health care. EasyBox allows user to fully exploit all IPPOCRATE features. Its name, Easy Box, reveals its purpose of container for various devices that may be included depending on user needs. Territorial Registry is the IPPOCRATE web module reserved to medical personnel for monitoring, research and analysis activities. Territorial Registry allows to access to all information gathered by IPPOCRATE using GIS system in order to execute spatial analysis combining geographical data (climatological information and monitored data) with information regarding the clinical history of users and their personal details. Territorial Registry was designed for different type of users: control rooms managed by wide area health facilities, single health care center or single doctor. Territorial registry manages such hierarchy diversifying the access to system functionalities. IPPOCRATE is the first e-Health system focused on climate risk prevention.

Keywords: climate change, health risk, new technological system

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6332 Development and Validation of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score in Indian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

Abstract:

Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
6331 Importance of Risk Assessment in Managers´ Decision-Making Process

Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

Abstract:

Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk

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6330 Inter Religion Harmony and World Peace: Theory from Shah Wali Ullah's Philosophy

Authors: Muhammad Usman Ghani

Abstract:

Religious tolerance is essential for the establishment of peace in the world. In the system created by Almighty Allah where a lot of diversity is found, still, this world holds unity itself. In today's world, human beings have been divided into clashes of civilizations or divided on the basis of religions or lingual differences. A religious scholar of Indo- Pak subcontinent describes four ethics, on the basis of which all religions of the world can unite. He says in his philosophy of religion that, there is a number of elements common in all religions but four are very common and they are: cleanliness, nobel deeds, relation to Almighty (existence of Almighty) and justice. He says that this universe also holds its integrity in itself. All humans are different in their attributes but to be a human being is common in them. Similarly, all species of the universe are different in their nature, but to be the creature of God is commonly shared by all of them.

Keywords: inter-religious relation, peace and harmony, unity, four common ethics/virtues

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6329 Evolution of Approaches to Cost Calculation in the Conditions of the Modern Russian Economy

Authors: Elena Tkachenko, Vladimir Kokh, Alina Osipenko, Vladislav Surkov

Abstract:

The modern period of development of Russian economy is fraught with a number of problems related to limitations in the use of traditional planning and financial management tools. Restrictions in the use of foreign software when performing an order of the Russian Government, on the one hand, and sanctions limiting the support of the major ERP and MRP II systems in the Russian Federation, on the other hand, entail the necessity to appeal to the basics of developing budgeting and analysis systems for industrial enterprises. Thus, cost calculation theory becomes the theoretical foundation for the development of industrial cost management systems. Based on the foregoing, it would be fair to make an assumption that the development of a working managerial accounting model on an industrial enterprise using an automated enterprise resource management system should rest upon the concept of the inevitability of alterations of business processes. On the other hand, optimized business processes make the architecture of financial analytics more transparent and permit the use of all the benefits of data cubes. The metrics and indicator slices provide online assessment of the state of key business processes at a given moment of time, which improves the quality of managerial decisions considerably. Therefore, the bilateral sanctions situation boosted the development of corporate business analytics and took industrial companies to the next level of understanding of business processes.

Keywords: cost culculation, ERP, OLAP, modern Russian economy

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6328 Beyond the Water Seal: On-Field Observations of Occupational Hazards of Faecal Sludge Management in Southern Karnataka

Authors: Anissa Mary Thomas Thattil, Nancy Angeline Gnanaselvam, B. Ramakrishna Goud

Abstract:

Faecal sludge management (FSM) is an unorganized sector, and in India, there is an absence of regulations regarding the collection, transport, treatment, and disposal of faecal sludge. FSM has a high degree of occupational hazards that need to be thoroughly understood in order to shape effective solutions. On-field observations of five FSM operations were conducted in Anekal Taluk of southern Karnataka. All five of the FSM operations were privately owned and snowball method of sampling was employed. Two types of FS operations observed were: mechanical emptying involving direct human contact with faecal sludge and mechanical emptying without direct human contact with faecal sludge. Each operation was manned by 3-4 faecal sludge operators (FSOs). None of the observed FSOs used personal protective equipment. According to the WHO semi-quantitative risk assessment, the very high risk occupational hazards identified were dermal contact with faecal sludge, inhalation of toxic gases, and social stigma. The high risk hazards identified were trips and falls, injuries, ergonomic hazards, substance abuse, and mental health problems. In all five FSM operations, the collected faecal sludge was discharged untreated onto abandoned land. FSM in India is fraught with occupational and environmental hazards which need to be urgently addressed. This includes formalizing the institution of FSM, contextualized behaviour change communication, capacity building of local bodies, awareness programmes among agriculturists and FSOs, and designation of sites for the safe harnessing of faecal sludge as soil nutrient.

Keywords: faecal sludge, faecal sludge management, FSM, occupational hazards, sanitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
6327 Innovative Activity and Development: Analysing Firm Data from Eurozone Country-Members

Authors: Ilias A. Makris

Abstract:

In this work, we attempt to associate firm characteristics with innovative activity. We collect microdata from listed firms of selected Eurozone Country-members, after the beginning of 2007 financial crisis. The following literature, several indicators of growth and performance were selected and tested for their ability to interpret innovative activity. The main scope is to examine the possible differences in performance and growth between innovative and non-innovative firms, during a severe recession. Additionally to that, a special focus will be held on whether macroeconomic performance and national innovation system, determines the extent of innovators' performance. Preliminary findings, through correlation matrices and non-parametric tests, strongly indicate the positive relation between innovative activity and most of the measures used (profitability, size, employment), confirming that even during a recessionary period, innovative firms not only survive but also seem to succeed better economic results in almost all indexes relative to non-innovative. However, even though innovators seem to perform better in all economies examined, the extent of that performance seems to be strongly affected by the supportive mechanisms (financial and structural) that their country provides. Thus, it is clear, that the technologically intensive 'gap' between European South and North, during the economic crisis, became chaotic, due to the harsh austerity measures and reduced budgets in those countries, even in sectors with high potentials in economic activity and employment, impairing the effects of crisis and enhancing the vicious circle of recession.

Keywords: eurozone, innovative activity, development, firm performance, non-parametric tests

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6326 KAP Study on Breast Cancer Among Women in Nirmala Educational Institutions-A Prospective Observational Study

Authors: Shaik Asha Begum, S. Joshna Rani, Shaik Abdul Rahaman

Abstract:

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer is a disease that creates in breast cells. "KAP" study estimates the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices of a local area. More than 1.5 million ladies (25% of all ladies with malignancy) are determined to have bosom disease consistently all through the world. Understanding the degrees of Knowledge, Attitude and Practice will empower a more effective cycle of mindfulness creation as it will permit the program to be custom-made all the more properly to the necessities of the local area. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the knowledge on signs and symptoms, risk factors, provide awareness on the practicing of the early detection techniques of breast cancer and provide knowledge on the overall breast cancer including preventive techniques. METHODOLOGY: This is an expressive cross-sectional investigation. This investigation of KAP was done in the Nirmala Educational Institutions from January to April 2021. A total of 300 participants are included from women students in pharmacy graduates & lecturers, and also from graduates other than the pharmacy. The examiners are taken from the BCAM (Breast Cancer Awareness Measure), tool compartment (Version 2). RESULT: According to the findings of the study, the majority of the participants were not well informed about breast cancer. A lump in the breast was the most commonly mentioned sign of breast cancer, followed by pain in the breast or nipple. The percentage of knowledge related to the breast cancer risk factors was also very less. The correct answers for breast cancer risk factors were radiation exposure (58.20 percent), a positive family history (47.6 percent), obesity (46.9 percent), a lack of physical activity (43.6 percent), and smoking (43.2 percent). Breast cancer screening, on the other hand, was uncommon (only 30 and 11.3 percent practiced clinical breast examination and mammography respectively). CONCLUSION: In this study, the knowledge on the signs and symptoms, risk factors of breast cancer - pharmacy graduates have more knowledge than the non-pharmacy graduates but in the preventive techniques and early detective tools of breast cancer -had poor knowledge in the pharmacy and non-pharmacy graduate. After the awareness program, pharmacy and non-pharmacy graduates got supportive knowledge on the preventive techniques and also practiced the early detective techniques of breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, mammography, KAP study, early detection

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6325 Analyzing the Ergonomic Design of Manual Material Handling in Chemical Industry: Case Study of Activity Task Weigh Liquid Catalyst to the Container Storage

Authors: Yayan Harry Yadi, L. Meily Kurniawidjaja

Abstract:

Work activities for MMH (Manual Material Handling) in the storage of liquid catalyst raw material workstations in chemical industries identify high-risk MSDs (Musculoskeletal Disorders). Their work is often performed frequently requires an awkward body posture, twisting, bending because of physical space limited, cold, slippery, and limited tools for transfer container and weighing the liquid chemistry of the catalyst into the container. This study aims to develop an ergonomic work system design on the transfer and weighing process of liquid catalyst raw materials at the storage warehouse. A triangulation method through an interview, observation, and detail study team with assessing the level of risk work posture and complaints. Work postures were analyzed using the RULA method, through the support of CATIA software. The study concludes that ergonomic design can make reduce 3 levels of risk scores awkward posture. CATIA Software simulation provided a comprehensive solution for a better posture of manual material handling at task weigh. An addition of manual material handling tools such as adjustable conveyors, trolley and modification tools semi-mechanical weighing with techniques based on rule ergonomic design can reduce the hazard of chemical fluid spills.

Keywords: ergonomic design, MSDs, CATIA software, RULA, chemical industry

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6324 Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Fire and Explosion of Crude Oil Tanks: Case Study

Authors: B. Zerouali, M. Kara, B. Hamaidi, H. Mahdjoub, S. Rouabhia

Abstract:

In this paper, a safety analysis for crude oil tanks to prevent undesirable events that may cause catastrophic accidents. The estimation of the probability of damage to industrial systems is carried out through a series of steps, and in accordance with a specific methodology. In this context, this work involves developing an assessment tool and risk analysis at the level of crude oil tanks system, based primarily on identification of various potential causes of crude oil tanks fire and explosion by the use of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), then improved risk modelling by Bayesian Networks (BNs). Bayesian approach in the evaluation of failure and quantification of risks is a dynamic analysis approach. For this reason, have been selected as an analytical tool in this study. Research concludes that the Bayesian networks have a distinct and effective method in the safety analysis because of the flexibility of its structure; it is suitable for a wide variety of accident scenarios.

Keywords: bayesian networks, crude oil tank, fault tree, prediction, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 645
6323 Landfill Design for Reclamation of Şırnak Coal Mine Dumps: Shalefill Stability and Risk Assessment

Authors: Yıldırım I. Tosun, Halim Cevizci, Hakan Ceylan

Abstract:

By GEO5 FEM program with four rockfill slope modeling and stability analysis was performed for S1, S2, S3 and S4 slopes where landslides of the shalefills were limited. Effective angle of internal friction (φ'°) 17°-22.5°, the effective cohesion (c') from 0.5 to 1.8 kPa, saturated unit weight 1.78-2.43 g/cm3, natural unit weight 1.9-2.35 g/cm3, dry unit weight 1.97-2.40 g/cm3, the permeability coefficient of 1x10-4 - 6.5x10-4 cm/s. In cross-sections of the slope, GEO 5 FEM program possible critical surface tension was examined. Rockfill dump design was made to prevent sliding slopes. Bulk material designated geotechnical properties using also GEO5 programs FEM and stability program via a safety factor determined and calculated according to the values S3 and S4 No. slopes are stable S1 and S2 No. slopes were close to stable state that has been found to be risk. GEO5 programs with limestone rock fill dump through FEM program was found to exhibit stability.

Keywords: slope stability, stability analysis, rockfills, sock stability

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6322 Cellular Automata Model for Car Accidents at a Signalized Intersection

Authors: Rachid Marzoug, Noureddine Lakouari, Beatriz Castillo Téllez, Margarita Castillo Téllez, Gerardo Alberto Mejía Pérez

Abstract:

This paper developed a two-lane cellular automata model to explain the relationship between car accidents at a signalized intersection and traffic-related parameters. It is found that the increase of the lane-changing probability P?ₕ? increases the risk of accidents, besides, the inflow α and the probability of accidents Pₐ? exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Furthermore, depending on the inflow, Pₐ? exhibits three different phases. The transition from phase I to phase II is of first (second) order when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). However, the system exhibits a second (first) order transition from phase II to phase III when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). In addition, when the inflow is not very high, the green light length of one road should be increased to improve road safety. Finally, simulation results show that the traffic at the intersection is safer adopting symmetric lane-changing rules than asymmetric ones.

Keywords: two-lane intersection, accidents, fatality risk, lane-changing, phase transition

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6321 Maternal Awareness of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome: A Jordanian Study

Authors: Nemeh Ahmad Al-Akour, Ibrahem Alfaouri

Abstract:

Objective: To examine the level of maternal awareness of SIDS and its prevention amongst Jordanian mothers in the north of Jordan, as well as to determine their SIDS-related infant care practices. Design: A cross-sectional design. Setting: The study was conducted in maternal out-patients clinics of two teaching hospitals and three maternal and child health clinic in three major health care centers in Northern Jordan. Participants: A total of 356 mothers of infants attending the maternal and child health clinics were included in this study. Measurements and findings: A self-administered questionnaire was used for collecting data study. In this study, 64%of mothers didn’t hear about SIDS, while only 7% of mothers were able to identify factors risk-reducing recommendations. Avoidance of prone sleeping was the most frequently identified recommendation (5%). There were 67.7% of mothers who put their infant in a lateral position to sleep, 61% used soft mattress surface for their babies sleep and 25.8% who shared a bed with their babies. Employed mother, mothers of higher age, and mothers living within a nuclear family were the only factors associated with maternal awareness of SIDS. Friends were the highest a source of knowledge of SIDS for mothers (44.7%). Key conclusions: There was a low level of awareness of SIDS and its associated risk factor among the mothers in Jordan. The mothers' misconception about smoking and sleeping position for their infants requires further efforts. Implications for practice: To ensure raising awareness of infant care practice regarding SIDS, a national educational intervention on SIDS risk reduction strategies and recommendations is necessary for maintaining a low rate of SIDS in the population.

Keywords: bed sharing, infant care, Jordan, sleep position, sudden infant death

Procedia PDF Downloads 304
6320 Customer Acquisition through Time-Aware Marketing Campaign Analysis in Banking Industry

Authors: Harneet Walia, Morteza Zihayat

Abstract:

Customer acquisition has become one of the critical issues of any business in the 21st century; having a healthy customer base is the essential asset of the bank business. Term deposits act as a major source of cheap funds for the banks to invest and benefit from interest rate arbitrage. To attract customers, the marketing campaigns at most financial institutions consist of multiple outbound telephonic calls with more than one contact to a customer which is a very time-consuming process. Therefore, customized direct marketing has become more critical than ever for attracting new clients. As customer acquisition is becoming more difficult to archive, having an intelligent and redefined list is necessary to sell a product smartly. Our aim of this research is to increase the effectiveness of campaigns by predicting customers who will most likely subscribe to the fixed deposit and suggest the most suitable month to reach out to customers. We design a Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) using two different approaches, with an aim to find the best approach and technique to build the prediction model. TAUPF is implemented using Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA) and Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA). We also address the data imbalance problem by examining and comparing different methods of sampling (Up-sampling and down-sampling). Our results have shown building such a model is quite feasible and profitable for the financial institutions. The Time Aware Upsell Prediction Framework (TAUPF) can be easily used in any industry such as telecom, automobile, tourism, etc. where the TAUPF (Clustered Upsell Prediction Approach (CUPA) or Upsell Prediction Approach (UPA)) holds valid. In our case, CUPA books more reliable. As proven in our research, one of the most important challenges is to define measures which have enough predictive power as the subscription to a fixed deposit depends on highly ambiguous situations and cannot be easily isolated. While we have shown the practicality of time-aware upsell prediction model where financial institutions can benefit from contacting the customers at the specified month, further research needs to be done to understand the specific time of the day. In addition, a further empirical/pilot study on real live customer needs to be conducted to prove the effectiveness of the model in the real world.

Keywords: customer acquisition, predictive analysis, targeted marketing, time-aware analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 108